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The State of the Union, Week 3 – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,061

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    mercator said:

    darkage said:

    The latest missive from Trump:

    image

    Certifiable frankly.
    It is actually quite a coherent statement.
    And elegant in parts: I like "Joe's, then Kamala's, Political Opponent, ME."

    But will it win over the UK centrist dad sector at which it is obviously aimed and which is so crucial to Trump's hopes? Not looking good.
    The effort to punctuate gets a thumbs up from me.
    Spoilt by the swerve into complaining about immigrants - is the shooter any more of an immigrant than Trump himself?
    It still looks like Trump is confused between offering a refugee asylum and mental asylums.

    Trump’s mum was an immigrant. Trump’s paternal grandparents were both immigrants. Two of Trump’s 3 wives have been immigrants, and his parents-in-law have also immigrated to the US, following their daughter. JD Vance’s parents-in-law are immigrants. Trump’s backers include Elon Musk (immigrant) and Peter Thiel (immigrant). Ted Cruz is an immigrant. All of Ron DeSantis’s great-grandparents were immigrants, and his wife is the granddaughter of an immigrant. Donald Trump Jr.’s fiancée is the daughter of two immigrants, while his ex-wife is the granddaughter of an immigrant. Ivanka’s husband, Jared Kushner, his paternal grandparents were immigrants (refugees). Nikki Haley’s parents are immigrants. Vivek Ramaswamy’s are immigrants. Marco Rubio’s parents are immigrants.
    Best placed to pull up the ladder.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,541
    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Beefeater. Not a fan. Friendly staff and all that but.

    I honestly think I’d have been better off at McDonalds round the corner. When you visit Maccie Ds you’re getting a precise, largely faultless rendition of a particular cuisine and style. One of the great underrated cuisines of the world: McDonalds. They don’t serve booze though.

    You can get beer in Maccy Ds in Germany. It's not great, but it is beer.
    You can get beer at Taco Bell in the UK. Never tried it myself though.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlcDHlK_RoY
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    mercator said:

    darkage said:

    The latest missive from Trump:

    image

    Certifiable frankly.
    It is actually quite a coherent statement.
    And elegant in parts: I like "Joe's, then Kamala's, Political Opponent, ME."

    But will it win over the UK centrist dad sector at which it is obviously aimed and which is so crucial to Trump's hopes? Not looking good.
    The effort to punctuate gets a thumbs up from me.
    Spoilt by the swerve into complaining about immigrants - is the shooter any more of an immigrant than Trump himself?
    It still looks like Trump is confused
    I'd have left it there.
    Muy divertido, but are you not, as an historian, alive to the possibility that we are looking at the 47th potus? And, generalising from that, that history is how things were rather than how we would like them to have been? Yes, Trump is not as clever as you are, but what follows from that?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,476
    mercator said:

    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    mercator said:

    darkage said:

    The latest missive from Trump:

    image

    Certifiable frankly.
    It is actually quite a coherent statement.
    And elegant in parts: I like "Joe's, then Kamala's, Political Opponent, ME."

    But will it win over the UK centrist dad sector at which it is obviously aimed and which is so crucial to Trump's hopes? Not looking good.
    The effort to punctuate gets a thumbs up from me.
    Spoilt by the swerve into complaining about immigrants - is the shooter any more of an immigrant than Trump himself?
    It still looks like Trump is confused
    I'd have left it there.
    Muy divertido, but are you not, as an historian, alive to the possibility that we are looking at the 47th potus? And, generalising from that, that history is how things were rather than how we would like them to have been? Yes, Trump is not as clever as you are, but what follows from that?
    Nothing.

    He's just confused.

    And he's still confused whether he wins or not.
  • Has Leon been on to tell us all how ChatGPT can now do a PhD's years worth of work in an hour....as its going around twitter.

    Of course the truth is no where near as exciting. They showed it their paper and asked it to implement a method section, which isn't a new method, there are many publicly available implementations (including the authors own code). And it took them a year to write the code from scratch as they aren't a coder and it was a year thinking about the idea, trying out ideas and the ChatGPT didn't really do much more than the most basic part.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,061
    edited September 16
    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    Beefeater. Not a fan. Friendly staff and all that but.

    I honestly think I’d have been better off at McDonalds round the corner. When you visit Maccie Ds you’re getting a precise, largely faultless rendition of a particular cuisine and style. One of the great underrated cuisines of the world: McDonalds. They don’t serve booze though.

    Ordering a steak was a bit ambitious of you. The Lasagna would probably have been tolerable.
    I mean, it’s Beefeater so one ought to be eating beef. The steak wasn’t too bad. But when you present steak as if it’s part of a greasy spoon fry up, with mid-sized chips (chips should either be fat and greasy like a chip shop, or properly thin like McDonalds), a fried/boiled mushroom leaking its grey slick into the plate, a shrivelled baked tomato, no salad garnish and no actual sauce like a béarnaise (you could get peppercorn sauce for extra money), it degrades the whole experience. And it’s served in a vast, mostly empty place that feels sad, because all the people there are travelling workers like me eating on their own or with one or two colleagues.

    After dinner I walked along the A road for a bit to find the “country pub” that showed up on Google maps. A beefeater in all but name. Vintage inns, and another empty space of beige walls, chirpy faux-blackboard messages like “duck or grouse”, and Cajun chicken with loaded cheesy fries. So I decided not to tarry for a drink.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815
    TimS said:

    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    Beefeater. Not a fan. Friendly staff and all that but.

    I honestly think I’d have been better off at McDonalds round the corner. When you visit Maccie Ds you’re getting a precise, largely faultless rendition of a particular cuisine and style. One of the great underrated cuisines of the world: McDonalds. They don’t serve booze though.

    Ordering a steak was a bit ambitious of you. The Lasagna would probably have been tolerable.
    I mean, it’s Beefeater so one ought to be eating beef. The steak wasn’t too bad. But when you present steak as if it’s part of a greasy spoon fry up, with mid-sized chips (chips should either be fat and greasy like a chip shop, or properly thin like McDonalds), a fried/boiled mushroom leaking its grey slick into the plate, a shrivelled baked tomato, no salad garnish and no actual sauce like a béarnaise (you could get peppercorn sauce for extra money), it degrades the whole experience. And it’s served in a vast, mostly empty place that feels sad, because all the people there are travelling workers like me eating on their own or with one or two colleagues.

    After dinner I walked along the A road for a bit to find the “country pub” that showed up on Google maps. A beefeater in all but name. Vintage inns, and another empty space of beige walls, chirpy faux-blackboard messages like “duck or grouse”, and Cajun chicken with loaded cheesy fries. So I decided not to tarry for a drink.
    But it got to you, didn't it? That "tarry" when you meant just stay, is pure olde inne speak.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,547
    edited September 16
    TimS said:

    62% believe Lady Starmer/ Keir Starmer should buy her own clothes


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1835721558507258058?t=RBhJDde4pKuZxkrszAspig&s=19

    Personally, and I’m sure I’m in the minority, I think a new prime minister should get the following:

    - immediate wardrobe transformation guided by a government employee fashion consultant, with both the PM and spouse strongly encouraged / coerced to wear an expensively tailored wardrobe by exclusively British designers
    - Prime ministerial car that’s the top of the range of whichever British (or foreign owned but UK owns the IP) automotive outfit wins the competition to provide the car free of charge.
    - Private chef cooking multi-star Michelin quality cuisine, chosen from among the country’s top restaurateurs
    - holidays for the family in the poshest and most desirable British destinations money can buy

    We’ve forgotten how to market UK design and hospitality. Every pound spent on pampering the PM and cabinet is money seriously well spent.
    Something we can wholeheartedly agree upon - well done and well said.

    The Royals still do a fair job of this. You can tell they care and actually like British craftsmanship. The late Queen especially. The in the Blair and Cameron eras there was a half arsed attempt by them - a few days in a Cornwall hotel before heading off on a 'proper holiday'.

    I am not sure about the private chef because I don't see the national benefit. And chef cookery isn't necessarily what you want to live on every day. But certainly some domestic help, provision of good meals every day, with some cookery involvement by the PM if preferred.

    I also don't think a cramped flat in No. 10 is a good idea. They should have a grace and favour apartment in one of the palaces. 10/15 minute commute would be ideal.
  • 62% believe Lady Starmer/ Keir Starmer should buy her own clothes

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1835721558507258058?t=RBhJDde4pKuZxkrszAspig&s=19

    The Primark Premier.
    Who will be the Next Prime Minister?
    Honest Bob Jenrick.
    Sideshow Bob.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,061
    CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Beefeater. Not a fan. Friendly staff and all that but.

    I honestly think I’d have been better off at McDonalds round the corner. When you visit Maccie Ds you’re getting a precise, largely faultless rendition of a particular cuisine and style. One of the great underrated cuisines of the world: McDonalds. They don’t serve booze though.

    You can get beer in Maccy Ds in Germany. It's not great, but it is beer.
    You can get beer at Taco Bell in the UK. Never tried it myself though.
    I always thought that Taco Bell was a telephone company.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,061
    mercator said:

    TimS said:

    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    Beefeater. Not a fan. Friendly staff and all that but.

    I honestly think I’d have been better off at McDonalds round the corner. When you visit Maccie Ds you’re getting a precise, largely faultless rendition of a particular cuisine and style. One of the great underrated cuisines of the world: McDonalds. They don’t serve booze though.

    Ordering a steak was a bit ambitious of you. The Lasagna would probably have been tolerable.
    I mean, it’s Beefeater so one ought to be eating beef. The steak wasn’t too bad. But when you present steak as if it’s part of a greasy spoon fry up, with mid-sized chips (chips should either be fat and greasy like a chip shop, or properly thin like McDonalds), a fried/boiled mushroom leaking its grey slick into the plate, a shrivelled baked tomato, no salad garnish and no actual sauce like a béarnaise (you could get peppercorn sauce for extra money), it degrades the whole experience. And it’s served in a vast, mostly empty place that feels sad, because all the people there are travelling workers like me eating on their own or with one or two colleagues.

    After dinner I walked along the A road for a bit to find the “country pub” that showed up on Google maps. A beefeater in all but name. Vintage inns, and another empty space of beige walls, chirpy faux-blackboard messages like “duck or grouse”, and Cajun chicken with loaded cheesy fries. So I decided not to tarry for a drink.
    But it got to you, didn't it? That "tarry" when you meant just stay, is pure olde inne speak.
    Shit, you’re right. Next thing you know I’ll be walking in back home and waiting in the hall to be seated.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,658
    TimS said:

    mercator said:

    TimS said:

    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    Beefeater. Not a fan. Friendly staff and all that but.

    I honestly think I’d have been better off at McDonalds round the corner. When you visit Maccie Ds you’re getting a precise, largely faultless rendition of a particular cuisine and style. One of the great underrated cuisines of the world: McDonalds. They don’t serve booze though.

    Ordering a steak was a bit ambitious of you. The Lasagna would probably have been tolerable.
    I mean, it’s Beefeater so one ought to be eating beef. The steak wasn’t too bad. But when you present steak as if it’s part of a greasy spoon fry up, with mid-sized chips (chips should either be fat and greasy like a chip shop, or properly thin like McDonalds), a fried/boiled mushroom leaking its grey slick into the plate, a shrivelled baked tomato, no salad garnish and no actual sauce like a béarnaise (you could get peppercorn sauce for extra money), it degrades the whole experience. And it’s served in a vast, mostly empty place that feels sad, because all the people there are travelling workers like me eating on their own or with one or two colleagues.

    After dinner I walked along the A road for a bit to find the “country pub” that showed up on Google maps. A beefeater in all but name. Vintage inns, and another empty space of beige walls, chirpy faux-blackboard messages like “duck or grouse”, and Cajun chicken with loaded cheesy fries. So I decided not to tarry for a drink.
    But it got to you, didn't it? That "tarry" when you meant just stay, is pure olde inne speak.
    Shit, you’re right. Next thing you know I’ll be walking in back home and waiting in the hall to be seated.
    That's Settle, not Darlington.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,061

    62% believe Lady Starmer/ Keir Starmer should buy her own clothes

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1835721558507258058?t=RBhJDde4pKuZxkrszAspig&s=19

    The Primark Premier.
    Who will be the Next Prime Minister?
    Hopefully not a dedicated follower of Fascism.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,547
    Guido points out that Yvette Cooper completely fails to give any future date when boat crossings might be reduced.
    https://youtu.be/HsSZJD3RcFE?si=40lDUbuDkh9s9We_

    I'm old enough to remember 'smashing the criminal gangs'.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    TimS said:

    62% believe Lady Starmer/ Keir Starmer should buy her own clothes


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1835721558507258058?t=RBhJDde4pKuZxkrszAspig&s=19

    Personally, and I’m sure I’m in the minority, I think a new prime minister should get the following:

    - immediate wardrobe transformation guided by a government employee fashion consultant, with both the PM and spouse strongly encouraged / coerced to wear an expensively tailored wardrobe by exclusively British designers
    - Prime ministerial car that’s the top of the range of whichever British (or foreign owned but UK owns the IP) automotive outfit wins the competition to provide the car free of charge.
    - Private chef cooking multi-star Michelin quality cuisine, chosen from among the country’s top restaurateurs
    - holidays for the family in the poshest and most desirable British destinations money can buy

    We’ve forgotten how to market UK design and hospitality. Every pound spent on pampering the PM and cabinet is money seriously well spent.
    Something we can wholeheartedly agree upon - well done and well said.

    The Royals still do a fair job of this. You can tell they care and actually like British craftsmanship. The late Queen especially. The in the Blair and Cameron eras there was a half arsed attempt by them - a few days in a Cornwall hotel before heading off on a 'proper holiday'.

    I am not sure about the private chef because I don't see the national benefit. And chef cookery isn't necessarily what you want to live on every day. But certainly some domestic help, provision of good meals every day, with some cookery involvement by the PM if preferred.

    I also don't think a cramped flat in No. 10 is a good idea. They should have a grace and favour apartment in one of the palaces. 10/15 minute commute would be ideal.
    I'm a poor man, guv, but when I were a lawyer in the big city I had zero difficulty in acquiring enough clothing to do the job properly - three tailor made suits at any one time plus proper shirts and shoes and a dinner jacket and the white tie stuff. And I did all this without a 5 figure sub from a friendly peer. It's the sheer creepiness of the set up which dumbfounds me. Does the noble lord subsidise skeir's boxer shorts?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    OT. The questions pile up for the JC. The BBC have now been dragged in.

    Will be interesting to see where it ends.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sdtu70dzGw
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,658
    Roger said:

    OT. The questions pile up for the JC. The BBC have now been dragged in.

    Will be interesting to see where it ends.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sdtu70dzGw

    Is the assumption that the dodgy columnist was a plant by the mysterious owners?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,877
    Jacob Rees-Mogg
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    ·
    7h
    Today I am launching the first in a monthly series where I will discuss the greatest figures of our history. Up first is Alfred the Great, whose legacy is still felt in many countries of the world. Please click the link in the tweet below to read it.

    https://x.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1835671623585685825

    ===

    What's the betting that the final episode is about that historical titan, Boris Johnson?
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    ·
    7h
    Today I am launching the first in a monthly series where I will discuss the greatest figures of our history. Up first is Alfred the Great, whose legacy is still felt in many countries of the world. Please click the link in the tweet below to read it.

    https://x.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1835671623585685825

    ===

    What's the betting that the final episode is about that historical titan, Boris Johnson?

    I wonder whatever happened to Boris doing his own series on GB News? I hope Paul Marshall didn't pay him upfront.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,877

    Jacob Rees-Mogg
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    ·
    7h
    Today I am launching the first in a monthly series where I will discuss the greatest figures of our history. Up first is Alfred the Great, whose legacy is still felt in many countries of the world. Please click the link in the tweet below to read it.

    https://x.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1835671623585685825

    ===

    What's the betting that the final episode is about that historical titan, Boris Johnson?

    I wonder whatever happened to Boris doing his own series on GB News? I hope Paul Marshall didn't pay him upfront.
    Isn't it not starting until January? Don't know where I saw that so I could be wrong to be honest.
  • CatMan said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Beefeater. Not a fan. Friendly staff and all that but.

    I honestly think I’d have been better off at McDonalds round the corner. When you visit Maccie Ds you’re getting a precise, largely faultless rendition of a particular cuisine and style. One of the great underrated cuisines of the world: McDonalds. They don’t serve booze though.

    You can get beer in Maccy Ds in Germany. It's not great, but it is beer.
    You can get beer at Taco Bell in the UK. Never tried it myself though.
    I always thought that Taco Bell was a telephone company.
    There's even a Taco Bell in the Arndale!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,264
    edited September 16

    Jacob Rees-Mogg
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    ·
    7h
    Today I am launching the first in a monthly series where I will discuss the greatest figures of our history. Up first is Alfred the Great, whose legacy is still felt in many countries of the world. Please click the link in the tweet below to read it.

    https://x.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1835671623585685825

    ===

    What's the betting that the final episode is about that historical titan, Boris Johnson?

    I wonder whatever happened to Boris doing his own series on GB News? I hope Paul Marshall didn't pay him upfront.
    Isn't it not starting until January? Don't know where I saw that so I could be wrong to be honest.
    I don't really follow these things closely, but didn't they announce this like a year ago?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/17/boris-johnson-yet-to-appear-on-gb-news-10-months-after-being-signed-up-as-a-presenter

    Yeah I am not going mad....nobody seems to know. And seems like he might get a better offer to edit the Telegraph.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,613
    TimS said:

    Beefeater. Not a fan. Friendly staff and all that but.

    I honestly think I’d have been better off at McDonalds round the corner. When you visit Maccie Ds you’re getting a precise, largely faultless rendition of a particular cuisine and style. One of the great underrated cuisines of the world: McDonalds. They don’t serve booze though.

    Your mistake was going for the steak. A poor steak is very noticeable. We had some cheap steaks from Aldi a while ago. Never again.

    I'd expect there would be other things on the menu where the diminution in quality would have been less obvious.
  • Cookie said:

    FPT:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Taz said:

    Unfortunate timing

    Victoria Starmer has been pictured at a London Fashion Week show wearing a custom-made designer dress amid a row over her receiving free clothes.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/lifestyle/style/lady-starmer-wears-custom-made-dress-at-london-fashion-week-amid-free-clothes-row/ar-AA1qEBCC?ocid=BingNewsSerp

    Interesting who this kind of reputational damage sticks to and who it doesnt. Both Tony and Cherie were well renowned 'grabbers'. Neither coming from proper money, solicited and gladly chomped through whatever they could, but it didnt hurt Tony in office.
    Starmer doesnt seem to have any kind of honeymoon protection at all.
    During Blair's time the economic situation was generally favourable and they were able spray money around so people didn't care very much about the Blairs "grabbing"

    Lord and Lady Starmer swanning around in the finest clothes someone else's money can buy while pensioners are going to freeze this winter is a rather harder "sell"
    Pensioners have been mollycoddled for far too long.

    We’re all in this together.

    We had a PM in Boris Johnson that dressed like a scruff, it’s good for the UK for a PM to wear the best.
    Can anyone looking really tell the difference between someone whose clothes cost £150 and someone whose clothes cost £1500? If they can, that says rather more about the observer than the observed.
    I can, but then I have a keen eye for this.
    See the second half of my comment above :wink:

    When I was young, putting a lot of effort (and certainly a lot of time and/or expense) into your appearance was a bit frowned upon. You were expected, if possible, to achieve a certain level of cleanliness and/or personal hygiene, but anything more than that was a bit suspect - a bit 'look at me'. Actually, I say 'when I was young', I suspect most of men of my generation still think that way.
    Maybe that is true, but it's hardly something to be proud of, is it?
    I kind of think it is. We used to consider vanity a vice rather than a virtue. We used to consider showing off something to be dissuaded. We used to mock peacockery. A certain parsimoniousness whn it comes to one's appearance seems to me to be something to be applauded.
    By which I don't necessarily mean turning up in a t-shirt riven with holes and ketchup stains. But I rather disdain the mindset which thinks it acceptable to spend £1000 a year or more on one's own appearance. It seems frivolous.
    Do you remember the book of sports lists? I remember a list in it of sportsmen who cared rather too much for their own appearance - it included, I think, Peter Shilton, who would drive to a city 30 miles away for his particular needs for a haircut, and, possibly, Kevin Keegan, who spent rather more than the then-quite-daring £5 a month on a haircut. And someone who spent a lot on clothes, no doubt. But the fact that ten such people could be picked out showed how comparatively rare that sort of vanity was in those days. If you made a list now of sportsmen who cared too much for their own appearance you'd be here until doomsday.

    Do you apply these hairshirt morals to women too, or just men?
    I can tell that you don't agree, Anabobz, but I'm guessing you're about my age? Do you not think values on this have shifted somewhat in our lifetimes?
    It's not a massive issue. I mean, of all the vices that there are, vanity/frivolousness/attention seeking is rather low on the list. But still - it strikes me as an odd change, and odd that it's so uncommented on.
    It's a reasonable question whether it applies in my mind to both men and women - not least because the instinctive reaction to someone who, for example, spends £30 or more on a haircut is that doing so is a bit unmanly. But on reflection, yes, I'd say I do apply these 'hairshirt morals' to women as well, or at least something similar. There is no need to spend thousands on clothes, and drawing attention to doing so, just looks a bit like conspicuous consumption.

    There's a quite low upper ceiling to how good anyone - male or female - can look, and expense and effort which goes beyond that is not only wasted but also looks a bit, well, crass.

    As I say above - these aren't strongly held feelings. But I feel kind of sure this is how everyone used to feel, and I don't understand how and why the dial has shifted.

    See also - tattoos.

    Heck, I travelled 30 miles round trip today for a haircut. Didn't realise there was a problem with that. Better use the sheep shears next time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,481
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @viewcode favourite Peter Zeihan has a prediction about Germany:

    https://x.com/peterzeihan/status/1835654953114685637

    End of Germany as an industrial power within a decade. Becoming an EU funds beneficiary within two. National dissolution within four.

    He is spot on about demographics.

    That said, his timings are likely wrong. Japan's demographics are about 20 years ahead of Germany's, and they are still a major industrial power.
    Or the ageing demographics means economic collapse trope is fallacious.
    The they provided their biggest market with the manufacturing technology with which to outcompete them one is pretty well spot on, though.
    Germany's biggest industry has always been capital goods (i.e. the machines that make machines). And Germany's boom over the last twenty years has been on the back of selling capital goods to China.

    If Germany the exporter is struggling now, the biggest reason is that the Chinese economy is not purchasing as many machines that make things, because it has slowed down itself.

    The question is - and I don't know the answer to this - whether the reindustrializing of the US creates demand for Siemens, Kuka and Bosch and co.
    Have the chinese started making the machines that make machines? And are they any good at it?
    They are, though German machine tools are still in another level.
    The big money in German exports, though, was cars. And they're getting crushed now in the Chinese market.
    China doesn't import that many German cars, or indeed cars generally. Of the $550bn market, only around $50bn is imported vehicles. And of those that are imported, it is mostly the really high end marques: Aston Martin, Ferrari, Lamourghini.

    Most cars sold in China, irrespective of the badge, were made there. So, while German car companies might be getting crushed in China, it doesn't have that much impact on factories in Wolfsberg.

    (Stat for you: German exports of cars to China in 2023 were EUR15.2bn, which is less than 1% of their total exports of EUR1,590bn.)
    Machine tool sales were just over a tenth of that.
    You think machine tools/capital equipment was just EUR1.5bn in 2023? Given total German exports China were about EUR100bn, and cars were EUR15bn, I find that very surprising.

    I said machine tools.
    Not capital equipment in general.

    Check the stats.
  • mercator said:

    TimS said:

    62% believe Lady Starmer/ Keir Starmer should buy her own clothes


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1835721558507258058?t=RBhJDde4pKuZxkrszAspig&s=19

    Personally, and I’m sure I’m in the minority, I think a new prime minister should get the following:

    - immediate wardrobe transformation guided by a government employee fashion consultant, with both the PM and spouse strongly encouraged / coerced to wear an expensively tailored wardrobe by exclusively British designers
    - Prime ministerial car that’s the top of the range of whichever British (or foreign owned but UK owns the IP) automotive outfit wins the competition to provide the car free of charge.
    - Private chef cooking multi-star Michelin quality cuisine, chosen from among the country’s top restaurateurs
    - holidays for the family in the poshest and most desirable British destinations money can buy

    We’ve forgotten how to market UK design and hospitality. Every pound spent on pampering the PM and cabinet is money seriously well spent.
    Something we can wholeheartedly agree upon - well done and well said.

    The Royals still do a fair job of this. You can tell they care and actually like British craftsmanship. The late Queen especially. The in the Blair and Cameron eras there was a half arsed attempt by them - a few days in a Cornwall hotel before heading off on a 'proper holiday'.

    I am not sure about the private chef because I don't see the national benefit. And chef cookery isn't necessarily what you want to live on every day. But certainly some domestic help, provision of good meals every day, with some cookery involvement by the PM if preferred.

    I also don't think a cramped flat in No. 10 is a good idea. They should have a grace and favour apartment in one of the palaces. 10/15 minute commute would be ideal.
    I'm a poor man, guv, but when I were a lawyer in the big city I had zero difficulty in acquiring enough clothing to do the job properly - three tailor made suits at any one time plus proper shirts and shoes and a dinner jacket and the white tie stuff. And I did all this without a 5 figure sub from a friendly peer. It's the sheer creepiness of the set up which dumbfounds me. Does the noble lord subsidise skeir's boxer shorts?
    The last three words only half read conjure up a vision which is hard to unthink, yuck !
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited September 16
    carnforth said:

    Roger said:

    OT. The questions pile up for the JC. The BBC have now been dragged in.

    Will be interesting to see where it ends.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sdtu70dzGw

    Is the assumption that the dodgy columnist was a plant by the mysterious owners?
    Yes and that the dodgy owners were working for Netanyahu.More interesting for me is how right wing the paper has become. Take a look at their current editor
  • Meanwhile, in "that's a relief" news,

    Junior doctors in England have accepted the government’s offer of a 22% pay rise over two years, ending their long-running dispute.

    Members of the British Medical Association backed the deal with 66% voting in favour. Nearly 46,000 took part in the online ballot.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5yy13ng33o
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,061

    Guido points out that Yvette Cooper completely fails to give any future date when boat crossings might be reduced.
    https://youtu.be/HsSZJD3RcFE?si=40lDUbuDkh9s9We_

    I'm old enough to remember 'smashing the criminal gangs'.

    I can only assume she doesn’t want to be a hostage to fortune. Which is a bit of a missed opportunity as boat crossings are down a quarter like-for-like in the period from 5 July to now versus the last 2 years, despite the period up to 4 July being ahead of 2023.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats

    Next year might be down again, all being equal. Crossings in the Med seem down quite sharply, and if @MoonRabbit ’s theory that this year’s med influx means next years channel crossings is correct it might imply the pipeline isn’t filling as quickly.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,061
    edited September 16

    TimS said:

    Beefeater. Not a fan. Friendly staff and all that but.

    I honestly think I’d have been better off at McDonalds round the corner. When you visit Maccie Ds you’re getting a precise, largely faultless rendition of a particular cuisine and style. One of the great underrated cuisines of the world: McDonalds. They don’t serve booze though.

    Your mistake was going for the steak. A poor steak is very noticeable. We had some cheap steaks from Aldi a while ago. Never again.

    I'd expect there would be other things on the menu where the diminution in quality would have been less obvious.
    As I articulated in my earlier post it wasn’t the steak. That was fair to middling. It was all the other stuff.

    The cheesy garlic flatbread starter from the fixed menu took the (almost literal) biscuit.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,658

    Meanwhile, in "that's a relief" news,

    Junior doctors in England have accepted the government’s offer of a 22% pay rise over two years, ending their long-running dispute.

    Members of the British Medical Association backed the deal with 66% voting in favour. Nearly 46,000 took part in the online ballot.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5yy13ng33o

    This is, twitter informs me, only 4% more than they would have got by accepting the pay rises over the last couple of years as they came in. No idea of the veracity.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,264
    edited September 16
    TimS said:

    Guido points out that Yvette Cooper completely fails to give any future date when boat crossings might be reduced.
    https://youtu.be/HsSZJD3RcFE?si=40lDUbuDkh9s9We_

    I'm old enough to remember 'smashing the criminal gangs'.

    I can only assume she doesn’t want to be a hostage to fortune. Which is a bit of a missed opportunity as boat crossings are down a quarter like-for-like in the period from 5 July to now versus the last 2 years, despite the period up to 4 July being ahead of 2023.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats

    Next year might be down again, all being equal. Crossings in the Med seem down quite sharply, and if @MoonRabbit ’s theory that this year’s med influx means next years channel crossings is correct it might imply the pipeline isn’t filling as quickly.
    I don't think its just a theory. Its fairly well known that the Africans get to Europe via Italy or Spain, then if they are intending to try and get to the UK, they travel to France where they work illegally for 6-12 months to raise the money for the next leg of the journey.

    The fall might well be due to the deal with Albania to return their migrants and less accepting of the bonded slavery claims, as they were making up a substantial proportion of the increase.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,658

    TimS said:

    Guido points out that Yvette Cooper completely fails to give any future date when boat crossings might be reduced.
    https://youtu.be/HsSZJD3RcFE?si=40lDUbuDkh9s9We_

    I'm old enough to remember 'smashing the criminal gangs'.

    I can only assume she doesn’t want to be a hostage to fortune. Which is a bit of a missed opportunity as boat crossings are down a quarter like-for-like in the period from 5 July to now versus the last 2 years, despite the period up to 4 July being ahead of 2023.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats

    Next year might be down again, all being equal. Crossings in the Med seem down quite sharply, and if @MoonRabbit ’s theory that this year’s med influx means next years channel crossings is correct it might imply the pipeline isn’t filling as quickly.
    I don't think its just a theory. Its fairly well known that the Africans get to Europe via Italy or Spain, then if they are intending to try and get to the UK, they travel to France where they work illegally for 6-12 months to raise the money for the next leg of the journey.
    Interesting, if true. The french have been lecturing us about how hard it is to work illegally in France.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,264
    edited September 16
    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    Guido points out that Yvette Cooper completely fails to give any future date when boat crossings might be reduced.
    https://youtu.be/HsSZJD3RcFE?si=40lDUbuDkh9s9We_

    I'm old enough to remember 'smashing the criminal gangs'.

    I can only assume she doesn’t want to be a hostage to fortune. Which is a bit of a missed opportunity as boat crossings are down a quarter like-for-like in the period from 5 July to now versus the last 2 years, despite the period up to 4 July being ahead of 2023.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats

    Next year might be down again, all being equal. Crossings in the Med seem down quite sharply, and if @MoonRabbit ’s theory that this year’s med influx means next years channel crossings is correct it might imply the pipeline isn’t filling as quickly.
    I don't think its just a theory. Its fairly well known that the Africans get to Europe via Italy or Spain, then if they are intending to try and get to the UK, they travel to France where they work illegally for 6-12 months to raise the money for the next leg of the journey.
    Interesting, if true. The french have been lecturing us about how hard it is to work illegally in France.
    There was a report done that laid out the percentages, routes, common timeline, but I don't have to hand and I need to get cracking on some work. For Africans wanting to get to the UK (either immediately or after getting rejected in other countries), this was basically the standard thing to do.

    If you think about it logically, they need several £1000 to get on a people smuggler boat, they aren't bringing that with them all the way from Africa. They will have already paid the money they have to make the first part of the journey.l
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,694
    edited September 16

    Cookie said:

    FPT:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Taz said:

    Unfortunate timing

    Victoria Starmer has been pictured at a London Fashion Week show wearing a custom-made designer dress amid a row over her receiving free clothes.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/lifestyle/style/lady-starmer-wears-custom-made-dress-at-london-fashion-week-amid-free-clothes-row/ar-AA1qEBCC?ocid=BingNewsSerp

    Interesting who this kind of reputational damage sticks to and who it doesnt. Both Tony and Cherie were well renowned 'grabbers'. Neither coming from proper money, solicited and gladly chomped through whatever they could, but it didnt hurt Tony in office.
    Starmer doesnt seem to have any kind of honeymoon protection at all.
    During Blair's time the economic situation was generally favourable and they were able spray money around so people didn't care very much about the Blairs "grabbing"

    Lord and Lady Starmer swanning around in the finest clothes someone else's money can buy while pensioners are going to freeze this winter is a rather harder "sell"
    Pensioners have been mollycoddled for far too long.

    We’re all in this together.

    We had a PM in Boris Johnson that dressed like a scruff, it’s good for the UK for a PM to wear the best.
    Can anyone looking really tell the difference between someone whose clothes cost £150 and someone whose clothes cost £1500? If they can, that says rather more about the observer than the observed.
    I can, but then I have a keen eye for this.
    See the second half of my comment above :wink:

    When I was young, putting a lot of effort (and certainly a lot of time and/or expense) into your appearance was a bit frowned upon. You were expected, if possible, to achieve a certain level of cleanliness and/or personal hygiene, but anything more than that was a bit suspect - a bit 'look at me'. Actually, I say 'when I was young', I suspect most of men of my generation still think that way.
    Maybe that is true, but it's hardly something to be proud of, is it?
    I kind of think it is. We used to consider vanity a vice rather than a virtue. We used to consider showing off something to be dissuaded. We used to mock peacockery. A certain parsimoniousness whn it comes to one's appearance seems to me to be something to be applauded.
    By which I don't necessarily mean turning up in a t-shirt riven with holes and ketchup stains. But I rather disdain the mindset which thinks it acceptable to spend £1000 a year or more on one's own appearance. It seems frivolous.
    Do you remember the book of sports lists? I remember a list in it of sportsmen who cared rather too much for their own appearance - it included, I think, Peter Shilton, who would drive to a city 30 miles away for his particular needs for a haircut, and, possibly, Kevin Keegan, who spent rather more than the then-quite-daring £5 a month on a haircut. And someone who spent a lot on clothes, no doubt. But the fact that ten such people could be picked out showed how comparatively rare that sort of vanity was in those days. If you made a list now of sportsmen who cared too much for their own appearance you'd be here until doomsday.

    Do you apply these hairshirt morals to women too, or just men?
    I can tell that you don't agree, Anabobz, but I'm guessing you're about my age? Do you not think values on this have shifted somewhat in our lifetimes?
    It's not a massive issue. I mean, of all the vices that there are, vanity/frivolousness/attention seeking is rather low on the list. But still - it strikes me as an odd change, and odd that it's so uncommented on.
    It's a reasonable question whether it applies in my mind to both men and women - not least because the instinctive reaction to someone who, for example, spends £30 or more on a haircut is that doing so is a bit unmanly. But on reflection, yes, I'd say I do apply these 'hairshirt morals' to women as well, or at least something similar. There is no need to spend thousands on clothes, and drawing attention to doing so, just looks a bit like conspicuous consumption.

    There's a quite low upper ceiling to how good anyone - male or female - can look, and expense and effort which goes beyond that is not only wasted but also looks a bit, well, crass.

    As I say above - these aren't strongly held feelings. But I feel kind of sure this is how everyone used to feel, and I don't understand how and why the dial has shifted.

    See also - tattoos.

    Heck, I travelled 30 miles round trip today for a haircut. Didn't realise there was a problem with that. Better use the sheep shears next time.
    Mrs Flatlander does mine, so cost is £0 + amortised cost of equipment (probably from Lidl, can't remember). She's the one that has to look at it, so whatevs.

    I'm fully in the shabby category and very cheap, but then who cares? The less you spend the less time you have to work.

    The only expensive (to me, anyway) shoes and clothes I've bought in the past 20 years are for outdoor activities. Unlike white (or black) tie these get used all the time until they wear out. Mountaineering boots don't cost peanuts...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited September 16
    On topic this site seems to have two strands of opinion on this race. There's the mainstream opinion that it's 50/50 shot, and then there's a minority of contrarians who think we're all idiots for underestimating Trump, and it's in fact a 50/50 shot.

    Does anyone rate it at more than 60/40 in one direction or the other?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,613

    Jacob Rees-Mogg
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    ·
    7h
    Today I am launching the first in a monthly series where I will discuss the greatest figures of our history. Up first is Alfred the Great, whose legacy is still felt in many countries of the world. Please click the link in the tweet below to read it.

    https://x.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1835671623585685825

    ===

    What's the betting that the final episode is about that historical titan, Boris Johnson?

    A very strange piece of writing. I'm really not convinced that you can draw a line from the Anglo-Saxon kings to the Angevin Empire in terms of governance. The Norman Conquest - the Normans being Northmen, i.e. Vikings who settled down - creates too much of a rupture. No Witan after the Conquest.

    Obviously Alfred, his son and his grandsons, created England, for which they are rightly very important. But Magna Carta and all the rest do not follow inevitably from that, and you might argue that more of the northern European culture of Anglo-Saxon England survived in the Holy Roman Empire, with its elected Emperor's, rather than in Norman England. And so if Anglo-Saxon customs were the antecedents of Magna Carta et al, then you might expect to see them arise there.
  • TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimS said:

    Looking at the map in Beefeater Darlington, I notice that we are pretty much exactly half way up the country here. And half way across England from East to West despite being near the East coast.

    I feel this deserves a @Leon style travel posting while I wait for my 8oz Sirloin, cooked “just the way you like it”.



    The sheer glamour.

    Kendall is pretty much halfway between lands end and John o groats. Darlo is about the same north south, if it's just England you're considering I think Sheffield is the halfway point. Darlo is definitely in the east however you are defining things in either the UK or England.
    Darlo halfway up UK. Halfway East-West England.
    Interesting (to me) that the accent here is very definitely north east, but the accent in nearbyish Northallerton is very definitely Yorkshire. 19 miles and no national border but a completely clear cut accent boundary. In the Midlands (especially the North Midlands into South Yorks and Cheshire) it’s much more of a gradual transition.
    There is an even more sudden accent boundary between Carlisle and Gretna (10 miles) or Berwick and Eyemouth (9 miles).
    The Centre point in Great Britain is well east of Kendal, one "l", somewhere between Orton and Kirkby Stephen. The Scottish twang in the accent begins between Appleby and Penrith, way lower than Carlisle. Not for nothing was I a Cumbria County Councillor for four years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,855
    Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,292

    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    Guido points out that Yvette Cooper completely fails to give any future date when boat crossings might be reduced.
    https://youtu.be/HsSZJD3RcFE?si=40lDUbuDkh9s9We_

    I'm old enough to remember 'smashing the criminal gangs'.

    I can only assume she doesn’t want to be a hostage to fortune. Which is a bit of a missed opportunity as boat crossings are down a quarter like-for-like in the period from 5 July to now versus the last 2 years, despite the period up to 4 July being ahead of 2023.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats

    Next year might be down again, all being equal. Crossings in the Med seem down quite sharply, and if @MoonRabbit ’s theory that this year’s med influx means next years channel crossings is correct it might imply the pipeline isn’t filling as quickly.
    I don't think its just a theory. Its fairly well known that the Africans get to Europe via Italy or Spain, then if they are intending to try and get to the UK, they travel to France where they work illegally for 6-12 months to raise the money for the next leg of the journey.
    Interesting, if true. The french have been lecturing us about how hard it is to work illegally in France.
    There was a report done that laid out the percentages, routes, common timeline, but I don't have to hand and I need to get cracking on some work. For Africans wanting to get to the UK (either immediately or after getting rejected in other countries), this was basically the standard thing to do.
    It's something like 60% Italy, 20% Spain, 20% other (Greece/Malta/Croatia/etc.). I don't know the stats on working in France first, and surely it'll depend a lot on the particular migrant.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,180

    On topic this site seems to have two strands of opinion on this race. There's the mainstream opinion that it's 50/50 shot, and then there's a minority of contrarians who think we're all idiots for underestimating Trump, and it's in fact a 50/50 shot.

    Does anyone rate it at more than 60/40 in one direction or the other?

    That's a very pertinent question sir. I think @kinabalu thinks Harris's chance of winning is >60%, but I'll leave it to them to confirm/deny.
  • TimS said:

    Guido points out that Yvette Cooper completely fails to give any future date when boat crossings might be reduced.
    https://youtu.be/HsSZJD3RcFE?si=40lDUbuDkh9s9We_

    I'm old enough to remember 'smashing the criminal gangs'.

    I can only assume she doesn’t want to be a hostage to fortune. Which is a bit of a missed opportunity as boat crossings are down a quarter like-for-like in the period from 5 July to now versus the last 2 years, despite the period up to 4 July being ahead of 2023.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats

    Next year might be down again, all being equal. Crossings in the Med seem down quite sharply, and if @MoonRabbit ’s theory that this year’s med influx means next years channel crossings is correct it might imply the pipeline isn’t filling as quickly.
    But premature for that, even at the "early days but solid progress" level. After all, one more really busy day like Saturday would take the figures back to trend. But it highlights how much the noisy stuff (like you-know-where) was an alternative to useful activity, rather than something worthwhile.

    There's a wider picture here. Phase One Starmerism is going to have to be "stick to the knitting, turn down the volume, get incremental improvement by having things working more smoothly." By itself, that won't be enough, but it's the only available starting point.

    The more marginal gains that can be extracted, the worse the record of the last government becomes.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 970

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    Welcome to the UK. Write something offensive on Facebook in your own home and you get 15 months in jail. Make hundreds of indecent images of children and you don't go to jail.
    2:32 pm · 16 Sep 2024"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1835673062345175159

    I see Goodwin doesn’t understand legal terms.

    Literal death.
    Isn't it about time you instigated a penalty system for any poster who Goodwins a thread?
    A Goodwin's law?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,547
    mercator said:

    TimS said:

    62% believe Lady Starmer/ Keir Starmer should buy her own clothes


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1835721558507258058?t=RBhJDde4pKuZxkrszAspig&s=19

    Personally, and I’m sure I’m in the minority, I think a new prime minister should get the following:

    - immediate wardrobe transformation guided by a government employee fashion consultant, with both the PM and spouse strongly encouraged / coerced to wear an expensively tailored wardrobe by exclusively British designers
    - Prime ministerial car that’s the top of the range of whichever British (or foreign owned but UK owns the IP) automotive outfit wins the competition to provide the car free of charge.
    - Private chef cooking multi-star Michelin quality cuisine, chosen from among the country’s top restaurateurs
    - holidays for the family in the poshest and most desirable British destinations money can buy

    We’ve forgotten how to market UK design and hospitality. Every pound spent on pampering the PM and cabinet is money seriously well spent.
    Something we can wholeheartedly agree upon - well done and well said.

    The Royals still do a fair job of this. You can tell they care and actually like British craftsmanship. The late Queen especially. The in the Blair and Cameron eras there was a half arsed attempt by them - a few days in a Cornwall hotel before heading off on a 'proper holiday'.

    I am not sure about the private chef because I don't see the national benefit. And chef cookery isn't necessarily what you want to live on every day. But certainly some domestic help, provision of good meals every day, with some cookery involvement by the PM if preferred.

    I also don't think a cramped flat in No. 10 is a good idea. They should have a grace and favour apartment in one of the palaces. 10/15 minute commute would be ideal.
    I'm a poor man, guv, but when I were a lawyer in the big city I had zero difficulty in acquiring enough clothing to do the job properly - three tailor made suits at any one time plus proper shirts and shoes and a dinner jacket and the white tie stuff. And I did all this without a 5 figure sub from a friendly peer. It's the sheer creepiness of the set up which dumbfounds me. Does the noble lord subsidise skeir's boxer shorts?
    I am happy for you, but this isn't really about what should be expected of SKS, or Boris or Truss, it's about the country. If you looked like a tit at a function (I am sure you always looked very dashing) it's only you and perhaps your company who looked bad. If SKS looks crap, it's the whole country that looks bad. What would be great is if he, and probably more to the point Lady Starmer, look brilliant, and they are wearing clothes designed (and perhaps shock of all shocks even made) in the UK, that's good for UK PLC.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,613

    On topic this site seems to have two strands of opinion on this race. There's the mainstream opinion that it's 50/50 shot, and then there's a minority of contrarians who think we're all idiots for underestimating Trump, and it's in fact a 50/50 shot.

    Does anyone rate it at more than 60/40 in one direction or the other?

    I think there are a couple who think Harris will win by a wide margin - MarqueeMark & Kinabalu.

    I'd put myself in the camp with algakirk, and possibly a few others, who think a Trump win is at least likely, or more certain than that. The economic fundamentals do not point to a good result for the incumbent party. Immigration is also a prominent issue that counts against them. Trump is polling a lot better than at the last two elections.

    I'd put the odds of a Trump victory at about 2:1. Harris still has some signs in her favour - she's younger, the abortion ballots will drive turnout in some key states - so she still has a fair chance. But she's the clear underdog.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,481
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @viewcode favourite Peter Zeihan has a prediction about Germany:

    https://x.com/peterzeihan/status/1835654953114685637

    End of Germany as an industrial power within a decade. Becoming an EU funds beneficiary within two. National dissolution within four.

    He is spot on about demographics.

    That said, his timings are likely wrong. Japan's demographics are about 20 years ahead of Germany's, and they are still a major industrial power.
    Or the ageing demographics means economic collapse trope is fallacious.
    The they provided their biggest market with the manufacturing technology with which to outcompete them one is pretty well spot on, though.
    Germany's biggest industry has always been capital goods (i.e. the machines that make machines). And Germany's boom over the last twenty years has been on the back of selling capital goods to China.

    If Germany the exporter is struggling now, the biggest reason is that the Chinese economy is not purchasing as many machines that make things, because it has slowed down itself.

    The question is - and I don't know the answer to this - whether the reindustrializing of the US creates demand for Siemens, Kuka and Bosch and co.
    Have the chinese started making the machines that make machines? And are they any good at it?
    They are, though German machine tools are still in another level.
    The big money in German exports, though, was cars. And they're getting crushed now in the Chinese market.
    China doesn't import that many German cars, or indeed cars generally. Of the $550bn market, only around $50bn is imported vehicles. And of those that are imported, it is mostly the really high end marques: Aston Martin, Ferrari, Lamourghini.

    Most cars sold in China, irrespective of the badge, were made there. So, while German car companies might be getting crushed in China, it doesn't have that much impact on factories in Wolfsberg.

    (Stat for you: German exports of cars to China in 2023 were EUR15.2bn, which is less than 1% of their total exports of EUR1,590bn.)
    Machine tool sales were just over a tenth of that.
    You think machine tools/capital equipment was just EUR1.5bn in 2023? Given total German exports China were about EUR100bn, and cars were EUR15bn, I find that very surprising.

    You probably have access to better data sources, but here's a rough sectoral breakdown.
    https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports/china

    "Vehicles, other than railway" is the largest category.
  • carnforth said:

    Meanwhile, in "that's a relief" news,

    Junior doctors in England have accepted the government’s offer of a 22% pay rise over two years, ending their long-running dispute.

    Members of the British Medical Association backed the deal with 66% voting in favour. Nearly 46,000 took part in the online ballot.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5yy13ng33o

    This is, twitter informs me, only 4% more than they would have got by accepting the pay rises over the last couple of years as they came in. No idea of the veracity.
    Four percent more for last year, plus this year's pay review recommendation in full.

    The second bit shouldn't be controversial, but it possibly is.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,855

    On topic this site seems to have two strands of opinion on this race. There's the mainstream opinion that it's 50/50 shot, and then there's a minority of contrarians who think we're all idiots for underestimating Trump, and it's in fact a 50/50 shot.

    Does anyone rate it at more than 60/40 in one direction or the other?

    I think there are a couple who think Harris will win by a wide margin - MarqueeMark & Kinabalu.

    I'd put myself in the camp with algakirk, and possibly a few others, who think a Trump win is at least likely, or more certain than that. The economic fundamentals do not point to a good result for the incumbent party. Immigration is also a prominent issue that counts against them. Trump is polling a lot better than at the last two elections.

    I'd put the odds of a Trump victory at about 2:1. Harris still has some signs in her favour - she's younger, the abortion ballots will drive turnout in some key states - so she still has a fair chance. But she's the clear underdog.
    If it were still Biden vs Trump then Trump would be heading for a landslide win. Harris being the candidate improves the Democrats’ position, but the question is by how much.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,563
    TimS said:

    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    Beefeater. Not a fan. Friendly staff and all that but.

    I honestly think I’d have been better off at McDonalds round the corner. When you visit Maccie Ds you’re getting a precise, largely faultless rendition of a particular cuisine and style. One of the great underrated cuisines of the world: McDonalds. They don’t serve booze though.

    Ordering a steak was a bit ambitious of you. The Lasagna would probably have been tolerable.
    I mean, it’s Beefeater so one ought to be eating beef. The steak wasn’t too bad. But when you present steak as if it’s part of a greasy spoon fry up, with mid-sized chips (chips should either be fat and greasy like a chip shop, or properly thin like McDonalds), a fried/boiled mushroom leaking its grey slick into the plate, a shrivelled baked tomato, no salad garnish and no actual sauce like a béarnaise (you could get peppercorn sauce for extra money), it degrades the whole experience. And it’s served in a vast, mostly empty place that feels sad, because all the people there are travelling workers like me eating on their own or with one or two colleagues.

    After dinner I walked along the A road for a bit to find the “country pub” that showed up on Google maps. A beefeater in all but name. Vintage inns, and another empty space of beige walls, chirpy faux-blackboard messages like “duck or grouse”, and Cajun chicken with loaded cheesy fries. So I decided not to tarry for a drink.
    Was Private Baldrick doing the cooking?
  • carnforth said:

    Meanwhile, in "that's a relief" news,

    Junior doctors in England have accepted the government’s offer of a 22% pay rise over two years, ending their long-running dispute.

    Members of the British Medical Association backed the deal with 66% voting in favour. Nearly 46,000 took part in the online ballot.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5yy13ng33o

    This is, twitter informs me, only 4% more than they would have got by accepting the pay rises over the last couple of years as they came in. No idea of the veracity.
    Four percent more for last year, plus this year's pay review recommendation in full.

    The second bit shouldn't be controversial, but it possibly is.
    Apparently they are now to be called Resident doctors rather than Junior doctors which seems a sensible change
  • Andy_JS said:

    Yay. When did the comments get swapped round again?

    This pm
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,679

    Andy_JS said:

    Yay. When did the comments get swapped round again?

    This pm
    Thanks for the reply BGNW.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    Are we expecting any further developments in Keith's Funds4Frocks scandal? 😭
  • carnforth said:

    Meanwhile, in "that's a relief" news,

    Junior doctors in England have accepted the government’s offer of a 22% pay rise over two years, ending their long-running dispute.

    Members of the British Medical Association backed the deal with 66% voting in favour. Nearly 46,000 took part in the online ballot.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5yy13ng33o

    This is, twitter informs me, only 4% more than they would have got by accepting the pay rises over the last couple of years as they came in. No idea of the veracity.
    Four percent more for last year, plus this year's pay review recommendation in full.

    The second bit shouldn't be controversial, but it possibly is.
    It shows that all the "35% is needed as a minimum" was a load of crap.

    This could have been sorted out last year if the BMA had wanted to.

    The other health unions did so, why not the doctors.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,679
    "Personal Views on the Huw Edwards Sentence
    BlackBeltSecrets"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcJSkZE8wyk
  • Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Sir Sleazy and Lady Muck.

    A less entertaining version of Boris and Carrie.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,845
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Yay. When did the comments get swapped round again?

    This pm
    Thanks for the reply BGNW.
    It's the best thing since Thatchers 'Rejoice!' intervention. If there's one thing the new Labour government can take at least some credit for, then I think we all owe them a debt of gratitude for this. As it was surely Sir Keir who made it possible.

    And possibly we have to pay them a smidge more tax. But let us not think about that now, in our hour of shared glory.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,694

    carnforth said:

    Meanwhile, in "that's a relief" news,

    Junior doctors in England have accepted the government’s offer of a 22% pay rise over two years, ending their long-running dispute.

    Members of the British Medical Association backed the deal with 66% voting in favour. Nearly 46,000 took part in the online ballot.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5yy13ng33o

    This is, twitter informs me, only 4% more than they would have got by accepting the pay rises over the last couple of years as they came in. No idea of the veracity.
    Four percent more for last year, plus this year's pay review recommendation in full.

    The second bit shouldn't be controversial, but it possibly is.
    It shows that all the "35% is needed as a minimum" was a load of crap.

    This could have been sorted out last year if the BMA had wanted to.

    The other health unions did so, why not the doctors.
    They didn't like the government?
  • Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Sir Sleazy and Lady Muck.

    A less entertaining version of Boris and Carrie.
    Speaking of Boris again I've had a sudden thought as to a literary character he reminds me of.

    Anyone read 'The Secret History' by Donna Tartt ?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Secret_History

    The story of a bunch of classics students at a posho New England college.

    Edmund "Bunny" Corcoran: a jokester who despite appearances of wealth, is in fact penniless and unabashedly takes advantage of his friends. Bunny's bigoted attitudes such as anti-Catholicism and homophobia antagonize other group members. Bunny is the least academically talented of the group; he has severe dyslexia and did not read until age 10. Unlike other group members, Bunny has a girlfriend and friends outside of the group. He is outwardly social and thought of by outsiders as funny and scholarly, but in reality is extremely egotistical, immature and impulsive.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,591
    ….
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300

    ….

    K
    E
    I
    T
    H
  • carnforth said:

    Meanwhile, in "that's a relief" news,

    Junior doctors in England have accepted the government’s offer of a 22% pay rise over two years, ending their long-running dispute.

    Members of the British Medical Association backed the deal with 66% voting in favour. Nearly 46,000 took part in the online ballot.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5yy13ng33o

    This is, twitter informs me, only 4% more than they would have got by accepting the pay rises over the last couple of years as they came in. No idea of the veracity.
    "only 4%" more seems an odd way to phrase it.

    4% is quite a considerable difference, is it not?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,591
    Great idea from Sadiq. Could this be another of his big-ticket achievements? It has been needed for years…

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/17/traffic-banned-london-oxford-street-sadiq-khan-westminster-council?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,658

    carnforth said:

    Meanwhile, in "that's a relief" news,

    Junior doctors in England have accepted the government’s offer of a 22% pay rise over two years, ending their long-running dispute.

    Members of the British Medical Association backed the deal with 66% voting in favour. Nearly 46,000 took part in the online ballot.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5yy13ng33o

    This is, twitter informs me, only 4% more than they would have got by accepting the pay rises over the last couple of years as they came in. No idea of the veracity.
    "only 4%" more seems an odd way to phrase it.

    4% is quite a considerable difference, is it not?
    It still leaves them 13% below the inflation-adjusted early-2000s Blair peak they had in their sights.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,815
    edited September 16

    carnforth said:

    Meanwhile, in "that's a relief" news,

    Junior doctors in England have accepted the government’s offer of a 22% pay rise over two years, ending their long-running dispute.

    Members of the British Medical Association backed the deal with 66% voting in favour. Nearly 46,000 took part in the online ballot.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy5yy13ng33o

    This is, twitter informs me, only 4% more than they would have got by accepting the pay rises over the last couple of years as they came in. No idea of the veracity.
    Four percent more for last year, plus this year's pay review recommendation in full.

    The second bit shouldn't be controversial, but it possibly is.
    It shows that all the "35% is needed as a minimum" was a load of crap.

    This could have been sorted out last year if the BMA had wanted to.

    The other health unions did so, why not the doctors.
    The 35% is a longer term ambition.

    It wasn't the BMA that kept the strikes going, it was the members voting massively in favour of striking.

    And make your mind up, is 22% over 2 years massively inflationary? Or trivally more than the Tories were offering?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,264
    edited September 16

    Great idea from Sadiq. Could this be another of his big-ticket achievements? It has been needed for years…

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/17/traffic-banned-london-oxford-street-sadiq-khan-westminster-council?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Other than it appears that 2 years of planning will now be thrown away and will still take 3 years to pedestrianise only part of it...in time time China manages to build a whole new city.

    How can it takes 3 years to reroute a few buses?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,679
    "How Labour let Nigel Farage win

    Keir Starmer’s strategists ordered campaign teams not to waste time fighting Reform UK in July’s election. It could come back to bite them."

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-labour-party-campaign-strategy-nigel-farage-reform-uk-party-uk-election/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,855
    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1835787536599539878

    Tonight, I set a new national ambition. For the first time, studying the Holocaust will become a critical part of every student’s identity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,481
    Trump: Democrats said please don’t call immigrants animals. I said, no, they’re not humans, they’re animals
    https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1835788796773986651

    This is dangerous stuff.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,679
    edited September 17
    Sadiq Khan wants to pedestrianise Oxford Street?

    Good idea. About time. (Not being sarcastic).
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 697
    TimS said:

    Beefeater. Not a fan. Friendly staff and all that but.

    I honestly think I’d have been better off at McDonalds round the corner. When you visit Maccie Ds you’re getting a precise, largely faultless rendition of a particular cuisine and style. One of the great underrated cuisines of the world: McDonalds. They don’t serve booze though.

    They do in Paris - nice stuff too - 1664
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646

    Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Well the vast majority of the other 60,000 people at each match manage to buy their own tickets just fine, and I’ll take a random guess that most of them get paid considerably less than the Prime Minister.

    £10 says he gets to watch Oasis as a guest of the FA at Wembley too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646

    Great idea from Sadiq. Could this be another of his big-ticket achievements? It has been needed for years…

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/17/traffic-banned-london-oxford-street-sadiq-khan-westminster-council?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Other than it appears that 2 years of planning will now be thrown away and will still take 3 years to pedestrianise only part of it...in time time China manages to build a whole new city.

    How can it takes 3 years to reroute a few buses?
    In the sandpit they’d take about 18 months to build a bus tunnel from Marble Arch to Tottenham Court Rd.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,548
    ohnotnow said:

    Taz said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Tres said:

    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cookie said:



    Indeed - interesting. If only we had some 250 year olds on the board, they could tell us when this changed. My guess: WW1.
    It may actually be that the late 70s/80s/early 90s were the nadir for male sartorial exuberance. I remember my friend's father - who was of a slightly older generation than my own - recollecting his youth of the early 60s, when the key to attracting girls was dressing to the nines and young men would happily wear expensively tailored suits for a night out.
    Whereas when I was young: yes, secretly, you wanted to look good to advance your chances of meeting girls. But you very much didn't want to look like you were trying to look good.

    Every era has had its code whether it was mods and rockers or burberry raincoats or stone island or adidas spezials. And most people have wanted to appear as more affluent than they are (eg the burberry and gucci keyring crazes). Ofc it is generally the gentry that cut about in moth-eaten sweaters and ancient clothes held together by baler twine.
    But no, that's the point. The male youth of the 70s/80s/90s did not dress to look more affluent than they were. Baggy shirts and doc martens. Or heavy metal chic. Or punk. Or Mark E Smith out of the Fall. Or shell suits.
    The new romantics of the early 80s were a sort of exception to this, but even they didn't look affluent - they looked like they'd indiscriminately raided a charity shop to try to stage a pantomime.
    The football hooligan look clearly passed you by.
    Plus the suits-and-slicked-back hair of the, what, 1981/82? Just look at the cover of Penthouse and Pavement or Tony Hadley in Spandau Ballet after the kilt period, say around Gold or True.

    (how the hell did I become this burgh's expert on male fashion? Ho-hum)

    For decades, before we started copying the Americans slavishly, male gangs and fashion alternated between dressing down and dressing up: mods v rockers, glam v punk, casuals v miner chic. Consider the difference between Tony Hadley in Spandau Ballet and the brilliant Mark Hollis in Talk Talk . I'll have to throw some old copies of The Face and i-D at PB.

    I'd like to say those days were better, but they weren't: it was generally rubbish for the poor and less rubbish for the well off. But I think the dreams of the future were better.
    Oh, and before I forget

    Clive Owen in Chancer (1990): https://static01.nyt.com/images/2007/10/07/arts/07stew.large1.jpg
    First season was fantastic. Went a bit downhill in S2... Perhaps it's too lost in the mists of time now to sum up a decade, but absolutely everything about Clive Owen's character, the slimy Piers, the very lovely Susannah Harker, the cod-Caterham cars setup with Mr Bennett from Pride and Prejudice as the country gent... you can practically hear the Pet Shop Boys singing 'let's make lots of money' in the background.

    More than Mad Men, it's the show that makes you sad people don't wear suits any more.

    Leslie Phillips in a straight role too and very good he was as well. I watched the Network release a few years back and enjoyed it.

    Also at the time there was Capital City with, IIRC, Douglas Hodge. A two series tribute and testament to yuppiedom.
    There is a rather forgotten UK TV show called 'Mr. Palfrey of Westminster' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Palfrey_of_Westminster) (and I very much recommend watching the pilot, even if the following series was a little hit'n'miss).

    There is a wonderful episode in the 2nd series called "Return to Sender" with Leslie Phillips playing a Kim Philby-esque character. He does it marvellously. Highly recommend it if you can find it.
    Network released it on DVD.

    I have it somewhere. I’ll have to dig it out.

    Thanks
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,481
    I'm reasonably confident that Jimmy Cater's incendiary rhetoric was not to blame.

    For the "have things ever been this bad before?" files:

    One morning in September, 1975, a woman holding a loaded .45 pistol walked right up to then-president Gerald Ford on a street in Sacramento and pulled the trigger before she was wrestled to the ground. (That chamber was empty; Ford wasn't shot.) She spent 34 years in prison.

    Less than three weeks later, as Ford was coming out of a hotel in San Francisco, a different woman fired a .38 pistol at him from directly across the street and got off two shots. One missed Ford's head by a few inches. She spent the next 31 years in prison. Both women are still alive.

    That was genuinely disturbing and frightening at the time — Ford had been on the Warren Commission, investigating the JFK shooting -- though barely remembered now. No larger message, apart from the long-stand, outsized role of gun violence in American life, public and private.

    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1835889976258507121

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,081

    Great idea from Sadiq. Could this be another of his big-ticket achievements? It has been needed for years…

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/17/traffic-banned-london-oxford-street-sadiq-khan-westminster-council?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Other than it appears that 2 years of planning will now be thrown away and will still take 3 years to pedestrianise only part of it...in time time China manages to build a whole new city.

    How can it takes 3 years to reroute a few buses?
    The usual reason it takes years to do anything in this country.

    Endless pointless rounds of consultation to get to a pre-determined outcome and avoid judicial review.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,458

    Jacob Rees-Mogg
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    ·
    7h
    Today I am launching the first in a monthly series where I will discuss the greatest figures of our history. Up first is Alfred the Great, whose legacy is still felt in many countries of the world. Please click the link in the tweet below to read it.

    https://x.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1835671623585685825

    ===

    What's the betting that the final episode is about that historical titan, Boris Johnson?

    I wonder whatever happened to Boris doing his own series on GB News? I hope Paul Marshall didn't pay him upfront.
    Isn't it not starting until January? Don't know where I saw that so I could be wrong to be honest.
    For those unwilling to wait, repeats of Peppa Pig can be found on CeeBeebies.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,913
    Nigelb said:

    I'm reasonably confident that Jimmy Cater's incendiary rhetoric was not to blame.

    For the "have things ever been this bad before?" files:

    One morning in September, 1975, a woman holding a loaded .45 pistol walked right up to then-president Gerald Ford on a street in Sacramento and pulled the trigger before she was wrestled to the ground. (That chamber was empty; Ford wasn't shot.) She spent 34 years in prison.

    Less than three weeks later, as Ford was coming out of a hotel in San Francisco, a different woman fired a .38 pistol at him from directly across the street and got off two shots. One missed Ford's head by a few inches. She spent the next 31 years in prison. Both women are still alive.

    That was genuinely disturbing and frightening at the time — Ford had been on the Warren Commission, investigating the JFK shooting -- though barely remembered now. No larger message, apart from the long-stand, outsized role of gun violence in American life, public and private.

    https://x.com/JamesFallows/status/1835889976258507121

    Russia has been spreading discontent and anti-American messages in the USA since the 1960s.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    Andy_JS said:

    "Personal Views on the Huw Edwards Sentence
    BlackBeltSecrets"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcJSkZE8wyk

    Something is deeply wrong with our criminal justice system, if paying for extreme sexual images of 7-9 year olds leads to only a slap of wrist.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,292
    Sandpit said:

    Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Well the vast majority of the other 60,000 people at each match manage to buy their own tickets just fine, and I’ll take a random guess that most of them get paid considerably less than the Prime Minister.

    £10 says he gets to watch Oasis as a guest of the FA at Wembley too.
    Poor bastard.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    ydoethur said:

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1835787536599539878

    Tonight, I set a new national ambition. For the first time, studying the Holocaust will become a critical part of every student’s identity.

    Since the Holocaust is the only thing every school is legally required to teach in KS3 History I've no idea what his point is.
    Odd use of the word “identity” too. Just say what you mean you moron.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,913
    A while back, Russia launched a counter-counter-offensive in the Kursk region. This made progress in reclaiming Russian land, and was widely reported.

    Except since then, Ukraine has gained more territory in Kursk than Russia has regained...

    ODHSNM.
  • https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1835787536599539878

    Tonight, I set a new national ambition. For the first time, studying the Holocaust will become a critical part of every student’s identity.

    Will there be a module on how SKS single-handedly cleansed the Labour Party of antisemitism?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,547

    Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Sir Sleazy and Lady Muck.

    A less entertaining version of Boris and Carrie.
    Sir Keir Sponger - will he gain two awful nicknames before he's completed a year in office?

    I'll freely admit it's giving me warm feelings for Rishi Sunak. At least he did sit in the stands, even if one suspected it was a sort of pose, like when he filled up his nanny's Dacia Duster.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646

    A while back, Russia launched a counter-counter-offensive in the Kursk region. This made progress in reclaiming Russian land, and was widely reported.

    Except since then, Ukraine has gained more territory in Kursk than Russia has regained...

    ODHSNM.

    There’s almost certainly Ukranians in Belgorod as well, several Russian towns there have been evacuated but information is thin on the ground.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJTf6C2yG_I

    It’s quite astonishing that a few hundred Ukranian troops are holding so much Russian territory, with seemingly very little pushback for more than a month now.

    At the time of the Kursk invasion, most of us thought it was a daring special forces raid to put up a few yellow and blue flags then run quickly back across the border before the Russian reinforcements arrived. But no Russian reinforcements arrived.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,815
    Sandpit said:

    Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Well the vast majority of the other 60,000 people at each match manage to buy their own tickets just fine, and I’ll take a random guess that most of them get paid considerably less than the Prime Minister.

    £10 says he gets to watch Oasis as a guest of the FA at Wembley too.
    Sadly the days when a PM could go to a match with no security detail are gone. Though have any ever tried?

  • eekeek Posts: 28,440
    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    mercator said:

    darkage said:

    The latest missive from Trump:

    image

    Certifiable frankly.
    It is actually quite a coherent statement.
    And elegant in parts: I like "Joe's, then Kamala's, Political Opponent, ME."

    But will it win over the UK centrist dad sector at which it is obviously aimed and which is so crucial to Trump's hopes? Not looking good.
    The effort to punctuate gets a thumbs up from me.
    Rather let down by the infantile need to capitalize.
    I try to fight 'things ain't what they used to be' feelings in myself but from ...

    "I have a dream that one day in America a man will be judged not by the colour of his skin but by the content of his character"

    to ...

    "They're eating our cats, they're eating our dawgs"

    ... this is a slightly disappointing arc.
    I like this - does that make me bad?


    I am enjoying an experience akin to “BBC journalist visits red wall to gauge sentiment” this evening. A night in Darlington, in the mistakenly booked premier inn on the trading estate (where I’m tucking into a beefeater - this is like a British version of staying in the Kyriad St Quentin next to the autoroute des Anglais and popping into the Courtepaille for dinner).

    My taxi driver on the brief but fascinating drive from the station managed to confide that he’d lost his son due to a 2 hour ambulance wait earlier this year, that he’s run a boxing gym for decades catering to kids down on their luck from all backgrounds (“Asians, gypsies, blacks”), and that - and this was prefaced by a declaration that he’s not racist, and I believe him, the refugees are out of control and are why nobody can afford houses or get seen by a doctor.

    It’s interesting that the real focus in immigration discourse is on the very visible refugee / asylum seeker cohort rather than the far bigger legal immigrant group. Visibility is everything - if Cooper can clear the backlog and empty some of those hotels commandeered by the home office I think it’ll go a long way.
    Oh I know that taxi driver but he’s not 100% accurate - you can still buy 2 bedroom terraces for £80,000 so most people can afford somewhere to live.

    But we don’t have refugees here - we are, however, receiving a large number of Indians to the extent that even I’ve noticed a change in the local demographics,

    Finally getting a doctors appointment is hard work but that’s more because of recruitment issues a while back - the old guard of GPs have retired and new ones seem to be part time
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,547
    Sandpit said:

    Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Well the vast majority of the other 60,000 people at each match manage to buy their own tickets just fine, and I’ll take a random guess that most of them get paid considerably less than the Prime Minister.

    £10 says he gets to watch Oasis as a guest of the FA at Wembley too.
    He absolutely won't, because the Gallachers would publicly humiliate him.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,031
    Nigelb said:

    Trump: Democrats said please don’t call immigrants animals. I said, no, they’re not humans, they’re animals
    https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1835788796773986651

    This is dangerous stuff.

    all of his wives were immigrants IIRC
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,458
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump: Democrats said please don’t call immigrants animals. I said, no, they’re not humans, they’re animals
    https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1835788796773986651

    This is dangerous stuff.

    all of his wives were immigrants IIRC
    Marla wasn't.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,326
    ydoethur said:

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1835787536599539878

    Tonight, I set a new national ambition. For the first time, studying the Holocaust will become a critical part of every student’s identity.

    Since the Holocaust is the only thing every school is legally required to teach in KS3 History I've no idea what his point is.
    They are not studying to learn about the Holocaust

    They are studying to internalise it so that it becomes a “critical part of their identity”

    That langauage is somewhat disturbing irrespective of the merits of the topic to be studied
  • Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Sir Sleazy and Lady Muck.

    A less entertaining version of Boris and Carrie.
    Sir Keir Sponger - will he gain two awful nicknames before he's completed a year in office?

    I'll freely admit it's giving me warm feelings for Rishi Sunak. At least he did sit in the stands, even if one suspected it was a sort of pose, like when he filled up his nanny's Dacia Duster.
    I’ll eat one of my hats if there’s a better double entendre today.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,815
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Well the vast majority of the other 60,000 people at each match manage to buy their own tickets just fine, and I’ll take a random guess that most of them get paid considerably less than the Prime Minister.

    £10 says he gets to watch Oasis as a guest of the FA at Wembley too.
    Sadly the days when a PM could go to a match with no security detail are gone. Though have any ever tried?

    Those look awfully like the hospitality seats at the Dell:

    https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/24329091.rishi-sunak-spotted-southampton-game-west-brom/

    I had hospitality seats once at The Walkers Stadium, given by one of the directors as a thank you for treating them. Nice bloke, but the only time I have had to wear collar and tie to a match. Sandwiches and drinks at half time, and no queue for the bogs were nice, but a bit soulless compare to my usual seat.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,261

    Great idea from Sadiq. Could this be another of his big-ticket achievements? It has been needed for years…

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/17/traffic-banned-london-oxford-street-sadiq-khan-westminster-council?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Other than it appears that 2 years of planning will now be thrown away and will still take 3 years to pedestrianise only part of it...in time time China manages to build a whole new city.

    How can it takes 3 years to reroute a few buses?
    It takes longer than that. Many are still running the old tram routes. One of the problems with the bendy buses is that they didn't create new routes running on suitable roads (although they then ended up in Malta, which was worse)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,031
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Well the vast majority of the other 60,000 people at each match manage to buy their own tickets just fine, and I’ll take a random guess that most of them get paid considerably less than the Prime Minister.

    £10 says he gets to watch Oasis as a guest of the FA at Wembley too.
    Sadly the days when a PM could go to a match with no security detail are gone. Though have any ever tried?

    Those look awfully like the hospitality seats at the Dell:

    https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/24329091.rishi-sunak-spotted-southampton-game-west-brom/

    I had hospitality seats once at The Walkers Stadium, given by one of the directors as a thank you for treating them. Nice bloke, but the only time I have had to wear collar and tie to a match. Sandwiches and drinks at half time, and no queue for the bogs were nice, but a bit soulless compare to my usual seat.
    I got the full hospitality experience at the Rugby once. That was fun
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,646
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Well the vast majority of the other 60,000 people at each match manage to buy their own tickets just fine, and I’ll take a random guess that most of them get paid considerably less than the Prime Minister.

    £10 says he gets to watch Oasis as a guest of the FA at Wembley too.
    Sadly the days when a PM could go to a match with no security detail are gone. Though have any ever tried?

    For an unscheduled attendance at a sporting event, a couple of policemen could I’m sure be accomodated by the ground.

    He doesn’t need to be given several hundred quid’s worth of hospitality sitting with the prawn sandwich and champagne brigade.

    He could even buy his own hospitality ticket if he wants, he gets paid net £10k a month.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,326
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Well the vast majority of the other 60,000 people at each match manage to buy their own tickets just fine, and I’ll take a random guess that most of them get paid considerably less than the Prime Minister.

    £10 says he gets to watch Oasis as a guest of the FA at Wembley too.
    Sadly the days when a PM could go to a match with no security detail are gone. Though have any ever tried?

    It’s been such a long time since Rishi was PM. What a different world we lived in!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,815
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tone deaf Starmer strikes again.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1835758241952776641

    NEW: Keir Starmer says he wouldn't be able to watch Arsenal play if nobody paid for his tickets

    "Never going to an Arsenal game again because I can't accept hospitality is pushing it a bit far."

    Well the vast majority of the other 60,000 people at each match manage to buy their own tickets just fine, and I’ll take a random guess that most of them get paid considerably less than the Prime Minister.

    £10 says he gets to watch Oasis as a guest of the FA at Wembley too.
    Sadly the days when a PM could go to a match with no security detail are gone. Though have any ever tried?

    For an unscheduled attendance at a sporting event, a couple of policemen could I’m sure be accomodated by the ground.

    He doesn’t need to be given several hundred quid’s worth of hospitality sitting with the prawn sandwich and champagne brigade.

    He could even buy his own hospitality ticket if he wants, he gets paid net £10k a month.
    Freebies are one of the perks of being a front bencher, and a long tradition.

    It's buying influence and access of course, just like those party fundraising dinners, or prizes of playing tennis with David Cameron etc.

    Few seem able to resist.
This discussion has been closed.