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The State of the Union Week 2 – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,415

    nico679 said:

    Rachel Austerity Reeves has told Labour MPs tonight that they have to sacrifice the well-being, health and even lives of pensioners to the demands of the City of London for proof that Labour are fiscally tough. Except, the City isn’t demanding it does so. So what is really going on?

    Labour boxed themselves in with their over the top fiscal rules. They also shot themselves in the foot by ruling out higher taxes on the top 5% . Reeves is obsessed with looking tough and is overcompensating. Whether people agree with the WFA change or not surely everyone can agree that the policy change optics and the way it’s been communicated has been abysmal .
    Mick Lynch is spot on today - Labours made up fiscal rule means they can't fix the countrys problems (which one might argue is the point of it!)

    He wants a progressive wealth tax with the richest paying the same as everyone else on PAYE.

    That would bring in hundred of billions, it is time for the richest to pay what everyone else has been paying their whole lives.
    Ooh! A Tax Gap believer.

    Can I sell you a bridge, low mileage, one careless owner?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,954

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1833215926679806266

    🇺🇲 National poll by @pewresearch


    🟦 Kamala Harris: 49%
    🟥 Donald Trump: 49%

    August 11 poll 🔵 Harris +1
    ——
    • White: Trump 56-42%
    • Black: Harris 84-13%
    • Hispanic: Harris 57-39%
    • Asian: Harris 61-37%
    ---
    • Male: Trump 52-46%
    • Female: Harris 52-46%

    I think there has to be a real chance Trump wins the popular vote this time, RFK Jr dropping out has certainly helped him there.

    However Harris can still win the EC, she leads on average in Wisconsin and Michigan and Nevada with Georgia and Pennsylvania also neck and neck.

    Trump wins the national popular vote but Harris wins the EC by the closest margin since Bush in 2000 would certainly make for an interesting late November in the US!
    Trump would need a significant swing to his advantage in places like California and New York to win the popular vote imo.
    Biden won California by 29 percentage points in 2020. Harris is only up about 20 points.

    It's a similar story in New York, where Biden's 23 point margin in 2020 looks like a 12 point one now.
    However in 2020, turnout was disproportionately up in California so those figures might not mean that Trump is adding votes in the wrong place but rather that fewer Democrats will turn out this time.
    Whichever. It shows that the Dem vote is getting more efficient.
    That's just spin. Harris won't get a bonus in other states just because she does worse in California.
    Trump doing better than last time amongst minorities, especially Hispanics, is definitely a thing. If Harris does at least as well as Biden in the other groups that may not matter as the main effect of the minorities switch will be in strongly Democrat states plus Florida and Texas.
  • Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1833215926679806266

    🇺🇲 National poll by @pewresearch


    🟦 Kamala Harris: 49%
    🟥 Donald Trump: 49%

    August 11 poll 🔵 Harris +1
    ——
    • White: Trump 56-42%
    • Black: Harris 84-13%
    • Hispanic: Harris 57-39%
    • Asian: Harris 61-37%
    ---
    • Male: Trump 52-46%
    • Female: Harris 52-46%

    I think there has to be a real chance Trump wins the popular vote this time, RFK Jr dropping out has certainly helped him there.

    However Harris can still win the EC, she leads on average in Wisconsin and Michigan and Nevada with Georgia and Pennsylvania also neck and neck.

    Trump wins the national popular vote but Harris wins the EC by the closest margin since Bush in 2000 would certainly make for an interesting late November in the US!
    Trump would need a significant swing to his advantage in places like California and New York to win the popular vote imo.
    Biden won California by 29 percentage points in 2020. Harris is only up about 20 points.

    It's a similar story in New York, where Biden's 23 point margin in 2020 looks like a 12 point one now.
    However in 2020, turnout was disproportionately up in California so those figures might not mean that Trump is adding votes in the wrong place but rather that fewer Democrats will turn out this time.
    Whichever. It shows that the Dem vote is getting more efficient.
    After all, dropping votes where they had a big lead last time and gaining them where it made a difference is why SKSICIPMWAHM despite an underwhelming share of the vote.

    Bottom line: even if US polling wasn't rubbish, we still wouldn't have a blooming clue what was going on.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,855
    edited September 9
    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    Let's be clear, that's either an unregistered moped or an unregistered motorcycle. I know that Cardiff have a huge issue - especially around areas like Ely and traveller communities.

    The mere 19 month ban is a travesty. He was also charged for having no insurance. I have no idea if that was pursued. They should have done no registration and no licence as well.

    In Cardiff they seize these by the hundred. I do not know the detail for Swansea. Here is a piece about a lorryful from yesterday:
    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/illegal-electric-bikes-seized-cardiff-27431549

    The no insurance is the core one for me around the incident itself, as that means restitution for the innocent member of the public is very difficult.

    But the main things around this are for example more effective supply chain regulation for motorbikes etc, specialist police teams which exist in a few places but not enough etc.

    In my area the police seem to maintain that they do not have the powers to deal with this, so the youths do wheelies past police cars, laughing at them.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 5,902
    https://www.npr.org/2024/09/06/nx-s1-5101765/swing-states-demographics-electorate

    This is a great link to an excellent article about how the electorate has changed in some key states . Some great charts and you can see why places like Arizona have swung more to the Dems .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,225

    Nigelb said:

    I live in DFW in Texas. The Democratic nominee for president is playing ads on TV. Biden never did that. Obama didn’t do it. Texas is in play.
    https://x.com/LoneStarLeft/status/1832846230314975555

    In my long odds bingo card.
    Unlikely, but worth a punt at around 10/1, I think.

    Did H Clinton play ads on TV in Texas?

    If Texas is at all competitive then Harris should be home and dry overall. But the race doesn't look like it could be any tighter.

    So, who is screwing up? Is it Harris, or the polling companies?
    The most likely scenario is that the Harris campaign has lots of money, and that airtime was cheap. If it causes the Trump campaign to divert resources, great. But the most likely scenario is that it makes no difference at all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,378

    Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    Labour should introduce a UK FATCA-on-steroids:

    You want to be a British citizen?
    Then you're gonna have to pay British taxes. Wherever you live.
    (As a special concession, we'll let you deduct whatever local taxes you pay in Abroadland.)

    You don't want to be a British citizen anymore?
    Well fuck off then. But don't expect to come crawling back when it suits you.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,378
    edited September 9

    dixiedean said:

    F*** me!

    I'm in Widnes tonight, anyone know where I can get an after hours tat to blend in?

    I was less nervous when a hooker I had declined pulled a knife on me in Ikeja Island, Lagos, and a Nairobi taxi driver wanted to pick up his mate between the Nairobi Club and the Lillian Towers hotel. The Toby Inn in Widnes is far, far scarier. Presumably this national decline is post July 4th.

    You Northerners really are brave!

    Chin up and make yourself useful. Paul Simon made a career and a fortune out of his desire to be away from Widnes.
    What's more it's solid middle class compared to Ashington.
    There must be 50 ways to leave from Dover
    Yeah but they've all got very long queues since Brexit ;-)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,855
    edited September 9

    Pagan2 said:

    As a general thing I think we should stop lauding politicians for announcing initiatives and take a cynical attitude because mostly its all fart and no follow through. If Labour manages to build 1.5 million houses I will be the first to applaud.

    Till they actually do however they deserve no plaudit's for announcing stuff and bunging money at initiatives because lets face it is not like history shows us its easy to make announcements....levelling up, immigration down to 10s of thousand, building 1.5 million houses in 5 years.

    When it happens then its time to say well done, not when some scheme is announced. We would all be better being more cynical about these things and show politicians if they want to reap the benefit they have to actually achieve

    It's spin .

    We built about 1,2 million houses in the last 5 years. So Starmer is only proposing another 300k new builds. In reality we need 1.5 million houses in the next 5 years on top of the 1.2 million we already build if it is to have any impact.

    According to the official ONS statistics, those numbers are way over the top - by about 20-40%.

    Starts Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 886,867
    Completions Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 976,167

    For comparison

    Starts Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 815,620
    Completions Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 761,840

    The 2019 to 2024 numbers include my straight line extrapolation over the 2 year COVID period, which is very generous and may be adding an extra 100k to the number. There are adjustments and minor category inclusions and exclusion I expect, but not to that extent.

    It is notable that starts in the 2023-2024 period were only ~155k (<30k in each of the last 3 quarters of the FY), which I suggest is down to the Election and Sunak's 2 years of NIMBY-pandering.

    For the Starmer promise, I think they may hit around 1.2 million in the first 5 years, and 1.5 million in the second 5 years if they get 2 terms. That will be doing well.

    It's worth remembering that we will not know the out-turn until around 5.5 years from now, so it will be a guessing game at the next Election.

    Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted
  • FossFoss Posts: 893

    Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    Labour should introduce a UK FATCA-on-steroids:

    You want to be a British citizen?
    Then you're gonna have to pay British taxes. Wherever you live.
    (As a special concession, we'll let you deduct whatever local taxes you pay in Abroadland.)

    You don't want to be a British citizen anymore?
    Well fuck off then. But don't expect to come crawling back when it suits you.
    That would also help solve at least some of the student loans situation.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,378
    MattW said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As a general thing I think we should stop lauding politicians for announcing initiatives and take a cynical attitude because mostly its all fart and no follow through. If Labour manages to build 1.5 million houses I will be the first to applaud.

    Till they actually do however they deserve no plaudit's for announcing stuff and bunging money at initiatives because lets face it is not like history shows us its easy to make announcements....levelling up, immigration down to 10s of thousand, building 1.5 million houses in 5 years.

    When it happens then its time to say well done, not when some scheme is announced. We would all be better being more cynical about these things and show politicians if they want to reap the benefit they have to actually achieve

    It's spin .

    We built about 1,2 million houses in the last 5 years. So Starmer is only proposing another 300k new builds. In reality we need 1.5 million houses in the next 5 years on top of the 1.2 million we already build if it is to have any impact.

    According to the official ONS statistics, those numbers are way over the top - by about 35-40%.

    Starts Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 886,867
    Completions Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 976,167

    For comparison

    Starts Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 815,620
    Completions Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 761,840

    The 2019 to 2024 numbers include my straight line extrapolation over the 2 year COVID period, which is very generous and may be adding an extra 100k to the number. There are adjustments and minor category inclusions and exclusion I expect, but not to that extent.

    It is notable that starts in the 2023-2024 period were only ~150k, which I suggest is down to the Election and Sunak's NIMBY-pandering.

    For the Starmer promise, I think they may hit around 1.2 million in the first 5 years, and 1.5 million in the second 5 years if they get 2 terms. That will be doing well.

    It's worth remembering that we will not know the out-turn until around 5.5 years from now, so it will be a guessing game at the next Election.

    Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted
    SKS and AlanBrooke will be pleased to know that the Pointers are doing their bit - we've just bought a building pot and plan to build our own (planners permitting). Exciting times.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,855
    edited September 9

    MattW said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As a general thing I think we should stop lauding politicians for announcing initiatives and take a cynical attitude because mostly its all fart and no follow through. If Labour manages to build 1.5 million houses I will be the first to applaud.

    Till they actually do however they deserve no plaudit's for announcing stuff and bunging money at initiatives because lets face it is not like history shows us its easy to make announcements....levelling up, immigration down to 10s of thousand, building 1.5 million houses in 5 years.

    When it happens then its time to say well done, not when some scheme is announced. We would all be better being more cynical about these things and show politicians if they want to reap the benefit they have to actually achieve

    It's spin .

    We built about 1,2 million houses in the last 5 years. So Starmer is only proposing another 300k new builds. In reality we need 1.5 million houses in the next 5 years on top of the 1.2 million we already build if it is to have any impact.

    According to the official ONS statistics, those numbers are way over the top - by about 35-40%.

    Starts Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 886,867
    Completions Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 976,167

    For comparison

    Starts Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 815,620
    Completions Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 761,840

    The 2019 to 2024 numbers include my straight line extrapolation over the 2 year COVID period, which is very generous and may be adding an extra 100k to the number. There are adjustments and minor category inclusions and exclusion I expect, but not to that extent.

    It is notable that starts in the 2023-2024 period were only ~150k, which I suggest is down to the Election and Sunak's NIMBY-pandering.

    For the Starmer promise, I think they may hit around 1.2 million in the first 5 years, and 1.5 million in the second 5 years if they get 2 terms. That will be doing well.

    It's worth remembering that we will not know the out-turn until around 5.5 years from now, so it will be a guessing game at the next Election.

    Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted
    SKS and AlanBrooke will be pleased to know that the Pointers are doing their bit - we've just bought a building pot and plan to build our own (planners permitting). Exciting times.
    Congratulations. Completion of house 2028-2032 if you do well :smile: .

    Looking at each period, it's lumpy so my quote of the overclaim should be more like 20% to 40% to cover it all.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449

    dixiedean said:

    F*** me!

    I'm in Widnes tonight, anyone know where I can get an after hours tat to blend in?

    I was less nervous when a hooker I had declined pulled a knife on me in Ikeja Island, Lagos, and a Nairobi taxi driver wanted to pick up his mate between the Nairobi Club and the Lillian Towers hotel. The Toby Inn in Widnes is far, far scarier. Presumably this national decline is post July 4th.

    You Northerners really are brave!

    Chin up and make yourself useful. Paul Simon made a career and a fortune out of his desire to be away from Widnes.
    What's more it's solid middle class compared to Ashington.
    There must be 50 ways to leave from Dover
    Yeah but they've all got very long queues since Brexit ;-)
    Talking of Widnes.

    Many, many moons ago I went to a graduate trainee interview for IT technician at what was then ICI. It was somewhere in Cheshire, probably Runcorn.

    The main interview was in a small office block in the centre of the chemical works site. The interviewer - the IT manager - at one point waved towards his office windows and the vista of miles of fuming and belching chemical plant and said - "I'm looking for someone who wants to be sat in this chair in twenty years time".

    It was a 'no' from me but as it happens they offered the job to someone else.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,378
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As a general thing I think we should stop lauding politicians for announcing initiatives and take a cynical attitude because mostly its all fart and no follow through. If Labour manages to build 1.5 million houses I will be the first to applaud.

    Till they actually do however they deserve no plaudit's for announcing stuff and bunging money at initiatives because lets face it is not like history shows us its easy to make announcements....levelling up, immigration down to 10s of thousand, building 1.5 million houses in 5 years.

    When it happens then its time to say well done, not when some scheme is announced. We would all be better being more cynical about these things and show politicians if they want to reap the benefit they have to actually achieve

    It's spin .

    We built about 1,2 million houses in the last 5 years. So Starmer is only proposing another 300k new builds. In reality we need 1.5 million houses in the next 5 years on top of the 1.2 million we already build if it is to have any impact.

    According to the official ONS statistics, those numbers are way over the top - by about 35-40%.

    Starts Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 886,867
    Completions Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 976,167

    For comparison

    Starts Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 815,620
    Completions Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 761,840

    The 2019 to 2024 numbers include my straight line extrapolation over the 2 year COVID period, which is very generous and may be adding an extra 100k to the number. There are adjustments and minor category inclusions and exclusion I expect, but not to that extent.

    It is notable that starts in the 2023-2024 period were only ~150k, which I suggest is down to the Election and Sunak's NIMBY-pandering.

    For the Starmer promise, I think they may hit around 1.2 million in the first 5 years, and 1.5 million in the second 5 years if they get 2 terms. That will be doing well.

    It's worth remembering that we will not know the out-turn until around 5.5 years from now, so it will be a guessing game at the next Election.

    Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted
    SKS and AlanBrooke will be pleased to know that the Pointers are doing their bit - we've just bought a building pot and plan to build our own (planners permitting). Exciting times.
    Completion 2032 if you do well :smile: .
    Mrs P has specified completion by Christmas 2026.

    Planners, architects, builders, building inspectors... you have been warned.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,910

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As a general thing I think we should stop lauding politicians for announcing initiatives and take a cynical attitude because mostly its all fart and no follow through. If Labour manages to build 1.5 million houses I will be the first to applaud.

    Till they actually do however they deserve no plaudit's for announcing stuff and bunging money at initiatives because lets face it is not like history shows us its easy to make announcements....levelling up, immigration down to 10s of thousand, building 1.5 million houses in 5 years.

    When it happens then its time to say well done, not when some scheme is announced. We would all be better being more cynical about these things and show politicians if they want to reap the benefit they have to actually achieve

    It's spin .

    We built about 1,2 million houses in the last 5 years. So Starmer is only proposing another 300k new builds. In reality we need 1.5 million houses in the next 5 years on top of the 1.2 million we already build if it is to have any impact.

    According to the official ONS statistics, those numbers are way over the top - by about 35-40%.

    Starts Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 886,867
    Completions Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 976,167

    For comparison

    Starts Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 815,620
    Completions Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 761,840

    The 2019 to 2024 numbers include my straight line extrapolation over the 2 year COVID period, which is very generous and may be adding an extra 100k to the number. There are adjustments and minor category inclusions and exclusion I expect, but not to that extent.

    It is notable that starts in the 2023-2024 period were only ~150k, which I suggest is down to the Election and Sunak's NIMBY-pandering.

    For the Starmer promise, I think they may hit around 1.2 million in the first 5 years, and 1.5 million in the second 5 years if they get 2 terms. That will be doing well.

    It's worth remembering that we will not know the out-turn until around 5.5 years from now, so it will be a guessing game at the next Election.

    Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted
    SKS and AlanBrooke will be pleased to know that the Pointers are doing their bit - we've just bought a building pot and plan to build our own (planners permitting). Exciting times.
    Completion 2032 if you do well :smile: .
    Mrs P has specified completion by Christmas 2026.

    Planners, architects, builders, building inspectors... you have been warned.
    We are a long way into a significant extension. Started in March, maybe 4 or 5 weeks to go? Have learned the hard way about soaring costs… Hope all goes well!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,895
    edited September 9
    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    It's an electric motorcycle, not a bicycle, hence dangerous driving.

    The rules are specific about what qualifies as each, and the police round me are doing a good job at making the distinction (and the BBC are not). They are using it to crack down on the people whizzing about on the cycle network at insane speeds.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,895

    MattW said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As a general thing I think we should stop lauding politicians for announcing initiatives and take a cynical attitude because mostly its all fart and no follow through. If Labour manages to build 1.5 million houses I will be the first to applaud.

    Till they actually do however they deserve no plaudit's for announcing stuff and bunging money at initiatives because lets face it is not like history shows us its easy to make announcements....levelling up, immigration down to 10s of thousand, building 1.5 million houses in 5 years.

    When it happens then its time to say well done, not when some scheme is announced. We would all be better being more cynical about these things and show politicians if they want to reap the benefit they have to actually achieve

    It's spin .

    We built about 1,2 million houses in the last 5 years. So Starmer is only proposing another 300k new builds. In reality we need 1.5 million houses in the next 5 years on top of the 1.2 million we already build if it is to have any impact.

    According to the official ONS statistics, those numbers are way over the top - by about 35-40%.

    Starts Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 886,867
    Completions Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 976,167

    For comparison

    Starts Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 815,620
    Completions Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 761,840

    The 2019 to 2024 numbers include my straight line extrapolation over the 2 year COVID period, which is very generous and may be adding an extra 100k to the number. There are adjustments and minor category inclusions and exclusion I expect, but not to that extent.

    It is notable that starts in the 2023-2024 period were only ~150k, which I suggest is down to the Election and Sunak's NIMBY-pandering.

    For the Starmer promise, I think they may hit around 1.2 million in the first 5 years, and 1.5 million in the second 5 years if they get 2 terms. That will be doing well.

    It's worth remembering that we will not know the out-turn until around 5.5 years from now, so it will be a guessing game at the next Election.

    Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted
    SKS and AlanBrooke will be pleased to know that the Pointers are doing their bit - we've just bought a building pot and plan to build our own (planners permitting). Exciting times.
    I really want to build my own at some point too. We want to go on Grand Designs and disappoint everyone with a fairly boring house and not get divorced/get cancer on the way.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,449
    Barry Gardiner will vote with Reeves.

    Strange times.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,992
    'Badenoch risks dropping to third in Tory leadership race, fear supporters.

    Shadow housing secretary’s camp worry that she may be overtaken by her rival James Cleverly because of ‘vote lending’ by other candidates'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/09/kemi-badenoch-risks-dropping-to-third-tory-leadership-race/
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,520
    Nunu3 said:

    #New General Election poll - North Carolina Harris 49% (+3) Trump 46% Last poll (8/21) - Tie Survey USA #A+ - 900 LV - 9/7

    wow.

    https://www.wral.com/story/harris-has-slight-edge-in-neck-and-neck-race-with-trump-in-nc-wral-news-poll-shows/21616373/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,910
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As a general thing I think we should stop lauding politicians for announcing initiatives and take a cynical attitude because mostly its all fart and no follow through. If Labour manages to build 1.5 million houses I will be the first to applaud.

    Till they actually do however they deserve no plaudit's for announcing stuff and bunging money at initiatives because lets face it is not like history shows us its easy to make announcements....levelling up, immigration down to 10s of thousand, building 1.5 million houses in 5 years.

    When it happens then its time to say well done, not when some scheme is announced. We would all be better being more cynical about these things and show politicians if they want to reap the benefit they have to actually achieve

    It's spin .

    We built about 1,2 million houses in the last 5 years. So Starmer is only proposing another 300k new builds. In reality we need 1.5 million houses in the next 5 years on top of the 1.2 million we already build if it is to have any impact.

    According to the official ONS statistics, those numbers are way over the top - by about 35-40%.

    Starts Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 886,867
    Completions Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 976,167

    For comparison

    Starts Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 815,620
    Completions Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 761,840

    The 2019 to 2024 numbers include my straight line extrapolation over the 2 year COVID period, which is very generous and may be adding an extra 100k to the number. There are adjustments and minor category inclusions and exclusion I expect, but not to that extent.

    It is notable that starts in the 2023-2024 period were only ~150k, which I suggest is down to the Election and Sunak's NIMBY-pandering.

    For the Starmer promise, I think they may hit around 1.2 million in the first 5 years, and 1.5 million in the second 5 years if they get 2 terms. That will be doing well.

    It's worth remembering that we will not know the out-turn until around 5.5 years from now, so it will be a guessing game at the next Election.

    Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted
    SKS and AlanBrooke will be pleased to know that the Pointers are doing their bit - we've just bought a building pot and plan to build our own (planners permitting). Exciting times.
    I really want to build my own at some point too. We want to go on Grand Designs and disappoint everyone with a fairly boring house and not get divorced/get cancer on the way.
    I’d suggest NOT painting every wall white, and fitting curtains. That will mess with their heads…
    A friend is convinced that Mcloud recorders several different versions each time he visits and then they pick the ones that fit the narrative best at the end, making him seem prescient.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,992
    Nunu3 said:

    #New General Election poll - North Carolina Harris 49% (+3) Trump 46% Last poll (8/21) - Tie Survey USA #A+ - 900 LV - 9/7

    wow.

    If Harris wins North Carolina and/or Georgia she can afford to lose Arizona and Pennsylvania to Trump of the states she won with Biden in 2020
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551

    James Earl Jones has died. Surely one of the most iconic voices in cinema history and, by all accounts, a genuinely nice guy as well.

    RIP and (for all you Pratchett fans) GNU.

    If only Darth Vader had retained Dave Prowse's voice. The greatest missed cinematic opportunity ever.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,600

    dixiedean said:

    F*** me!

    I'm in Widnes tonight, anyone know where I can get an after hours tat to blend in?

    I was less nervous when a hooker I had declined pulled a knife on me in Ikeja Island, Lagos, and a Nairobi taxi driver wanted to pick up his mate between the Nairobi Club and the Lillian Towers hotel. The Toby Inn in Widnes is far, far scarier. Presumably this national decline is post July 4th.

    You Northerners really are brave!

    Chin up and make yourself useful. Paul Simon made a career and a fortune out of his desire to be away from Widnes.
    What's more it's solid middle class compared to Ashington.
    There must be 50 ways to leave from Dover
    Yeah but they've all got very long queues since Brexit ;-)
    Just sign a new deal, Neil
    Cross the douane, Stan
    Give them a wave, Dave
    And get yourself free
  • HYUFD said:

    'Badenoch risks dropping to third in Tory leadership race, fear supporters.

    Shadow housing secretary’s camp worry that she may be overtaken by her rival James Cleverly because of ‘vote lending’ by other candidates'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/09/kemi-badenoch-risks-dropping-to-third-tory-leadership-race/

    Presumably "Badenoch fears being overtaken by Cleverly because MPs like him better" was too many words for the space.

    No, that doesn't work.
  • Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    Labour should introduce a UK FATCA-on-steroids:

    You want to be a British citizen?
    Then you're gonna have to pay British taxes. Wherever you live.
    (As a special concession, we'll let you deduct whatever local taxes you pay in Abroadland.)

    You don't want to be a British citizen anymore?
    Well fuck off then. But don't expect to come crawling back when it suits you.
    I agree with this. I think the US system (on this particular point) is very good. I still think the UK State takes too much in tax but however much they are going to take it should taken fairly and equitably from all British citizens wherever they live.

    As with all other tax arrangments you can have reciprocal agreements in place with the rest of the world so that any tax paid in country of residence/work is deducted from what you owe in the UK. But if you are paying less (or no) tax in another country then you are liable for the difference in the UK.

    I have spent most of my life working around the world and this is the regime under which I have always operated. But then I would not dream of living anywhere else but the UK long term so I figure that is my civic duty. It doesn't stop me arguing about how much tax the state takes from us all but that is a seperate argument to tax avoidance/evasion.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,447
    Nunu3 said:

    #New General Election poll - North Carolina Harris 49% (+3) Trump 46% Last poll (8/21) - Tie Survey USA #A+ - 900 LV - 9/7

    wow.

    Nice poll for Kamala.

    But more polls needed.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,520
    HYUFD said:

    Nunu3 said:

    #New General Election poll - North Carolina Harris 49% (+3) Trump 46% Last poll (8/21) - Tie Survey USA #A+ - 900 LV - 9/7

    wow.

    If Harris wins North Carolina and/or Georgia she can afford to lose Arizona and Pennsylvania to Trump of the states she won with Biden in 2020
    In contrast with FAU/Mainstreet polling

    Georgia Trump +2
    North Carolina Trump +1

    https://www.fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/24electionpollsept9
  • Hurrah, like lawyers, life gets better when bankers get involved.

    Angela Rayner, the Housing Secretary, has struck a £150m deal with Britain’s biggest housebuilder to build a string of new garden towns and villages across the country as ministers seek to ramp up their ambitious housing plans.

    Building giant Barratt Developments has teamed up with Lloyds Banking Group to build thousands of new homes in a joint venture led by Homes England, the government body responsible for housebuilding.

    The scheme, known as the Made Partnership, will act as master developer for new residential developments ranging from 1,000 homes to more than 10,000 which will be built across the UK.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/09/angela-rayner-150m-barratt-garden-towns/

    You do realise this is over 20 years.

    Wont even touch the sides,

    We need about another 20 of these.
    I know he’s a lawyer but he’s only been in office for only two months, give him a chance, this is a good start.
    It's not even a start. You take no account of the scale of the issue. It's like throwing a tampon in to the Rhine and saying your going to stop the flow.

    Sheer despertion young Eagles.
    You’re just grumpy because he’s going to sell out Northern Ireland just like the Tories did.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/07/brexit-danger-starmer-dublin-ireland-visit-eu-sammy-wilson/
    EURef in Northern Ireland, 2016:

    REMAIN 56%
    LEAVE 44%
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,895
    edited September 9

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As a general thing I think we should stop lauding politicians for announcing initiatives and take a cynical attitude because mostly its all fart and no follow through. If Labour manages to build 1.5 million houses I will be the first to applaud.

    Till they actually do however they deserve no plaudit's for announcing stuff and bunging money at initiatives because lets face it is not like history shows us its easy to make announcements....levelling up, immigration down to 10s of thousand, building 1.5 million houses in 5 years.

    When it happens then its time to say well done, not when some scheme is announced. We would all be better being more cynical about these things and show politicians if they want to reap the benefit they have to actually achieve

    It's spin .

    We built about 1,2 million houses in the last 5 years. So Starmer is only proposing another 300k new builds. In reality we need 1.5 million houses in the next 5 years on top of the 1.2 million we already build if it is to have any impact.

    According to the official ONS statistics, those numbers are way over the top - by about 35-40%.

    Starts Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 886,867
    Completions Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 976,167

    For comparison

    Starts Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 815,620
    Completions Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 761,840

    The 2019 to 2024 numbers include my straight line extrapolation over the 2 year COVID period, which is very generous and may be adding an extra 100k to the number. There are adjustments and minor category inclusions and exclusion I expect, but not to that extent.

    It is notable that starts in the 2023-2024 period were only ~150k, which I suggest is down to the Election and Sunak's NIMBY-pandering.

    For the Starmer promise, I think they may hit around 1.2 million in the first 5 years, and 1.5 million in the second 5 years if they get 2 terms. That will be doing well.

    It's worth remembering that we will not know the out-turn until around 5.5 years from now, so it will be a guessing game at the next Election.

    Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted
    SKS and AlanBrooke will be pleased to know that the Pointers are doing their bit - we've just bought a building pot and plan to build our own (planners permitting). Exciting times.
    I really want to build my own at some point too. We want to go on Grand Designs and disappoint everyone with a fairly boring house and not get divorced/get cancer on the way.
    I’d suggest NOT painting every wall white, and fitting curtains. That will mess with their heads…
    A friend is convinced that Mcloud recorders several different versions each time he visits and then they pick the ones that fit the narrative best at the end, making him seem prescient.
    McCloud going round some of the new build estates would be box office. Knocking walls over and ripping taps out in his Patagucci.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,447
    HYUFD said:

    'Badenoch risks dropping to third in Tory leadership race, fear supporters.

    Shadow housing secretary’s camp worry that she may be overtaken by her rival James Cleverly because of ‘vote lending’ by other candidates'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/09/kemi-badenoch-risks-dropping-to-third-tory-leadership-race/

    JENRICK
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551

    dixiedean said:

    F*** me!

    I'm in Widnes tonight, anyone know where I can get an after hours tat to blend in?

    I was less nervous when a hooker I had declined pulled a knife on me in Ikeja Island, Lagos, and a Nairobi taxi driver wanted to pick up his mate between the Nairobi Club and the Lillian Towers hotel. The Toby Inn in Widnes is far, far scarier. Presumably this national decline is post July 4th.

    You Northerners really are brave!

    Chin up and make yourself useful. Paul Simon made a career and a fortune out of his desire to be away from Widnes.
    What's more it's solid middle class compared to Ashington.
    There must be 50 ways to leave from Dover
    Yeah but they've all got very long queues since Brexit ;-)
    Just sign a new deal, Neil
    Cross the douane, Stan
    Give them a wave, Dave
    And get yourself free
    That is very good. Much more rewarding than posting Trump polls.

  • Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    The Mullins thing is just weird.

    Cameroon fan turned rabid Lib Dem anti Brexit Remoaner - this bit makes sense even if I disagree with it. But then he ends up supporting Reform - the vanity vehicle of the very man he spent so many years railing against.

    Plus he has sold his business and is basically retired living off the proceeds. So exactly why is he such a loss to the UK?

    As a poster boy for Telegraph anti-tax campaigns he a very poor choice.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,447

    HYUFD said:

    'Badenoch risks dropping to third in Tory leadership race, fear supporters.

    Shadow housing secretary’s camp worry that she may be overtaken by her rival James Cleverly because of ‘vote lending’ by other candidates'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/09/kemi-badenoch-risks-dropping-to-third-tory-leadership-race/

    Presumably "Badenoch fears being overtaken by Cleverly because MPs like him better" was too many words for the space.

    No, that doesn't work.
    The appeal of Badenoch is lost on most ordinary people who encounter her, have worked with her, or see her droning on on the telly. Why should Tory MPs be any different?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,447
    ….
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,447

    dixiedean said:

    F*** me!

    I'm in Widnes tonight, anyone know where I can get an after hours tat to blend in?

    I was less nervous when a hooker I had declined pulled a knife on me in Ikeja Island, Lagos, and a Nairobi taxi driver wanted to pick up his mate between the Nairobi Club and the Lillian Towers hotel. The Toby Inn in Widnes is far, far scarier. Presumably this national decline is post July 4th.

    You Northerners really are brave!

    Chin up and make yourself useful. Paul Simon made a career and a fortune out of his desire to be away from Widnes.
    What's more it's solid middle class compared to Ashington.
    There must be 50 ways to leave from Dover
    Yeah but they've all got very long queues since Brexit ;-)
    Just sign a new deal, Neil
    Cross the douane, Stan
    Give them a wave, Dave
    And get yourself free
    That is very good. Much more rewarding than posting Trump polls.

    Put down your pen, Glenn,
    Leave off the quill, Will,
    Time to dump Trump, chump,
    And get yourself free.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,351
    HYUFD said:

    'Badenoch risks dropping to third in Tory leadership race, fear supporters.

    Shadow housing secretary’s camp worry that she may be overtaken by her rival James Cleverly because of ‘vote lending’ by other candidates'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/09/kemi-badenoch-risks-dropping-to-third-tory-leadership-race/

    As long as she stays in the top 4 for now it probably doesn't matter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,992
    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    Dangerous driving has a maximum 2 year sentence and that is even without injury to anyone
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,992

    Eabhal said:

    mercator said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Up to 1,750 offenders are spending their last night in prison before being released under the Ministry of Justice’s emergency plan to ease the overcrowding crisis in jails.

    Releases are due to begin on Tuesday morning as governors unlock cells under the plan to free up 5,500 beds.

    One charity has warned that women and children will become the unintended victims of the emergency plans - while rehabilitation specialists fear any rushed releases will compromise vital work in turning around the lives of some offenders.

    It’s also unclear whether everyone being released definitely has accommodation to go to, a crucial part in keeping ex-offenders off the streets."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5dn9jg5elo

    Meanwhile lots of jailed tweeters move in to take their cells
    This really is the most absurd situation. There was a plan to reduce prison overcrowding which made sense despite being highly controversial. Then in the face of the first episode of public disorder, the government resorted to mass imprisonment as a solution to a public order problem in what can only be assessed as a state of complete panic. The prison policy is basically over, the situation is worse than it has ever been.
    There's a kind of theory of separation of powers which says that sentencing over rioting is nowt to do wi' t' gumment. Not saying I wholeheartedly believe it with a slightly iffy DPPbot as PM, but that's how it's meant to work.
    The idea is that by jailing a few people in the first week, you avoid having to track down and jail thousands in the coming weeks/months as the race war starts to snowball.
    The way the government puts its oar into the justice system, is charging.

    In ordinary times, people are often charged with a lesser offence.

    In the case of the rioters, they got charged with what they did.

    Fuck around and find out applies here.
    https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2024-08-06/teens-killer-set-for-early-release-due-to-prison-overcrowding
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,895
    edited September 9
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    mercator said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Up to 1,750 offenders are spending their last night in prison before being released under the Ministry of Justice’s emergency plan to ease the overcrowding crisis in jails.

    Releases are due to begin on Tuesday morning as governors unlock cells under the plan to free up 5,500 beds.

    One charity has warned that women and children will become the unintended victims of the emergency plans - while rehabilitation specialists fear any rushed releases will compromise vital work in turning around the lives of some offenders.

    It’s also unclear whether everyone being released definitely has accommodation to go to, a crucial part in keeping ex-offenders off the streets."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5dn9jg5elo

    Meanwhile lots of jailed tweeters move in to take their cells
    This really is the most absurd situation. There was a plan to reduce prison overcrowding which made sense despite being highly controversial. Then in the face of the first episode of public disorder, the government resorted to mass imprisonment as a solution to a public order problem in what can only be assessed as a state of complete panic. The prison policy is basically over, the situation is worse than it has ever been.
    There's a kind of theory of separation of powers which says that sentencing over rioting is nowt to do wi' t' gumment. Not saying I wholeheartedly believe it with a slightly iffy DPPbot as PM, but that's how it's meant to work.
    The idea is that by jailing a few people in the first week, you avoid having to track down and jail thousands in the coming weeks/months as the race war starts to snowball.
    The way the government puts its oar into the justice system, is charging.

    In ordinary times, people are often charged with a lesser offence.

    In the case of the rioters, they got charged with what they did.

    Fuck around and find out applies here.
    https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2024-08-06/teens-killer-set-for-early-release-due-to-prison-overcrowding
    We should be grateful the CPS, courts and police worked so quickly to get people into jail. If it had carried on any longer, even more people would have ended up committing crimes and more prisoners would have had to be released.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,963
    HYUFD said:

    'Badenoch risks dropping to third in Tory leadership race, fear supporters.

    Shadow housing secretary’s camp worry that she may be overtaken by her rival James Cleverly because of ‘vote lending’ by other candidates'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/09/kemi-badenoch-risks-dropping-to-third-tory-leadership-race/

    If you're not popular enough or savvy enough to overcome opponents tactically working against you (assuming for sake of argument such 'lending' is going on) then you're not up to the job in any case.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,992
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    mercator said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Up to 1,750 offenders are spending their last night in prison before being released under the Ministry of Justice’s emergency plan to ease the overcrowding crisis in jails.

    Releases are due to begin on Tuesday morning as governors unlock cells under the plan to free up 5,500 beds.

    One charity has warned that women and children will become the unintended victims of the emergency plans - while rehabilitation specialists fear any rushed releases will compromise vital work in turning around the lives of some offenders.

    It’s also unclear whether everyone being released definitely has accommodation to go to, a crucial part in keeping ex-offenders off the streets."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5dn9jg5elo

    Meanwhile lots of jailed tweeters move in to take their cells
    This really is the most absurd situation. There was a plan to reduce prison overcrowding which made sense despite being highly controversial. Then in the face of the first episode of public disorder, the government resorted to mass imprisonment as a solution to a public order problem in what can only be assessed as a state of complete panic. The prison policy is basically over, the situation is worse than it has ever been.
    There's a kind of theory of separation of powers which says that sentencing over rioting is nowt to do wi' t' gumment. Not saying I wholeheartedly believe it with a slightly iffy DPPbot as PM, but that's how it's meant to work.
    The idea is that by jailing a few people in the first week, you avoid having to track down and jail thousands in the coming weeks/months as the race war starts to snowball.
    The way the government puts its oar into the justice system, is charging.

    In ordinary times, people are often charged with a lesser offence.

    In the case of the rioters, they got charged with what they did.

    Fuck around and find out applies here.
    https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2024-08-06/teens-killer-set-for-early-release-due-to-prison-overcrowding
    We should be grateful the CPS, courts and police worked so quickly to get people into jail. If it had carried on any longer, even more people would have ended up committing crimes and more prisoners would have had to be released.
    The rioters yes who actually caused damage and violence, tweeters and a 'cheeky' gay couple being jailed while burglars, robbers and those convicted of killing a teen given early release, no
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0rl7zqr80o
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,225

    Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    Labour should introduce a UK FATCA-on-steroids:

    You want to be a British citizen?
    Then you're gonna have to pay British taxes. Wherever you live.
    (As a special concession, we'll let you deduct whatever local taxes you pay in Abroadland.)

    You don't want to be a British citizen anymore?
    Well fuck off then. But don't expect to come crawling back when it suits you.
    I agree with this. I think the US system (on this particular point) is very good. I still think the UK State takes too much in tax but however much they are going to take it should taken fairly and equitably from all British citizens wherever they live.

    As with all other tax arrangments you can have reciprocal agreements in place with the rest of the world so that any tax paid in country of residence/work is deducted from what you owe in the UK. But if you are paying less (or no) tax in another country then you are liable for the difference in the UK.

    I have spent most of my life working around the world and this is the regime under which I have always operated. But then I would not dream of living anywhere else but the UK long term so I figure that is my civic duty. It doesn't stop me arguing about how much tax the state takes from us all but that is a seperate argument to tax avoidance/evasion.
    The issue is that it gets really complicated, especially when different countries time taxable events as happening at different times.

    So, for example, if you sell your business for £1,000, of which half (£500) is an earn out that will be recieved 12 months later if targets are met.

    Well, in the UK, you get taxes on the whole amount up front, and you get to claim a tax loss the following year if you don't end up meeting the targets. By contrast, in the US they view the fact that you haven't recieved it yet as a sign you don't need to pay tax on it yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,992
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Badenoch risks dropping to third in Tory leadership race, fear supporters.

    Shadow housing secretary’s camp worry that she may be overtaken by her rival James Cleverly because of ‘vote lending’ by other candidates'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/09/kemi-badenoch-risks-dropping-to-third-tory-leadership-race/

    As long as she stays in the top 4 for now it probably doesn't matter.
    If Cleverly overtakes her tomorrow though that would be a massive blow, especially as more Stride and Tugendhat votes are likely to go to Cleverly than her. It would make Cleverly Jenrick's likely opponent in the last 2
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,855
    edited September 9
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As a general thing I think we should stop lauding politicians for announcing initiatives and take a cynical attitude because mostly its all fart and no follow through. If Labour manages to build 1.5 million houses I will be the first to applaud.

    Till they actually do however they deserve no plaudit's for announcing stuff and bunging money at initiatives because lets face it is not like history shows us its easy to make announcements....levelling up, immigration down to 10s of thousand, building 1.5 million houses in 5 years.

    When it happens then its time to say well done, not when some scheme is announced. We would all be better being more cynical about these things and show politicians if they want to reap the benefit they have to actually achieve

    It's spin .

    We built about 1,2 million houses in the last 5 years. So Starmer is only proposing another 300k new builds. In reality we need 1.5 million houses in the next 5 years on top of the 1.2 million we already build if it is to have any impact.

    According to the official ONS statistics, those numbers are way over the top - by about 35-40%.

    Starts Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 886,867
    Completions Apr 2019 to Mar 2024: 976,167

    For comparison

    Starts Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 815,620
    Completions Apr 2014 to Mar 2019: 761,840

    The 2019 to 2024 numbers include my straight line extrapolation over the 2 year COVID period, which is very generous and may be adding an extra 100k to the number. There are adjustments and minor category inclusions and exclusion I expect, but not to that extent.

    It is notable that starts in the 2023-2024 period were only ~150k, which I suggest is down to the Election and Sunak's NIMBY-pandering.

    For the Starmer promise, I think they may hit around 1.2 million in the first 5 years, and 1.5 million in the second 5 years if they get 2 terms. That will be doing well.

    It's worth remembering that we will not know the out-turn until around 5.5 years from now, so it will be a guessing game at the next Election.

    Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted
    SKS and AlanBrooke will be pleased to know that the Pointers are doing their bit - we've just bought a building pot and plan to build our own (planners permitting). Exciting times.
    I really want to build my own at some point too. We want to go on Grand Designs and disappoint everyone with a fairly boring house and not get divorced/get cancer on the way.
    Grand Designs is a bargepole job. In general, just don't.

    If it is a smooth build they will create enough fairy stories and crises to make it interesting enough for TV.

    One technique that might work is to go in with enough undisclosed fake crises in your project plan, and be the one that manipulates *them*. Rather like gangsters have a set of accounts for themselves, and another for the tax man.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Badenoch risks dropping to third in Tory leadership race, fear supporters.

    Shadow housing secretary’s camp worry that she may be overtaken by her rival James Cleverly because of ‘vote lending’ by other candidates'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/09/kemi-badenoch-risks-dropping-to-third-tory-leadership-race/

    If you're not popular enough or savvy enough to overcome opponents tactically working against you (assuming for sake of argument such 'lending' is going on) then you're not up to the job in any case.

    And the only candidate who can plausibily be lending votes to Cleverly is Jenrick... in which case the real situation is that he's even further ahead than he seems.

    Don't have nightmares, everyone.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,447

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Badenoch risks dropping to third in Tory leadership race, fear supporters.

    Shadow housing secretary’s camp worry that she may be overtaken by her rival James Cleverly because of ‘vote lending’ by other candidates'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/09/kemi-badenoch-risks-dropping-to-third-tory-leadership-race/

    If you're not popular enough or savvy enough to overcome opponents tactically working against you (assuming for sake of argument such 'lending' is going on) then you're not up to the job in any case.

    And the only candidate who can plausibily be lending votes to Cleverly is Jenrick... in which case the real situation is that he's even further ahead than he seems.

    Don't have nightmares, everyone.
    JENRICK
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,895
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    mercator said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Up to 1,750 offenders are spending their last night in prison before being released under the Ministry of Justice’s emergency plan to ease the overcrowding crisis in jails.

    Releases are due to begin on Tuesday morning as governors unlock cells under the plan to free up 5,500 beds.

    One charity has warned that women and children will become the unintended victims of the emergency plans - while rehabilitation specialists fear any rushed releases will compromise vital work in turning around the lives of some offenders.

    It’s also unclear whether everyone being released definitely has accommodation to go to, a crucial part in keeping ex-offenders off the streets."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5dn9jg5elo

    Meanwhile lots of jailed tweeters move in to take their cells
    This really is the most absurd situation. There was a plan to reduce prison overcrowding which made sense despite being highly controversial. Then in the face of the first episode of public disorder, the government resorted to mass imprisonment as a solution to a public order problem in what can only be assessed as a state of complete panic. The prison policy is basically over, the situation is worse than it has ever been.
    There's a kind of theory of separation of powers which says that sentencing over rioting is nowt to do wi' t' gumment. Not saying I wholeheartedly believe it with a slightly iffy DPPbot as PM, but that's how it's meant to work.
    The idea is that by jailing a few people in the first week, you avoid having to track down and jail thousands in the coming weeks/months as the race war starts to snowball.
    The way the government puts its oar into the justice system, is charging.

    In ordinary times, people are often charged with a lesser offence.

    In the case of the rioters, they got charged with what they did.

    Fuck around and find out applies here.
    https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2024-08-06/teens-killer-set-for-early-release-due-to-prison-overcrowding
    We should be grateful the CPS, courts and police worked so quickly to get people into jail. If it had carried on any longer, even more people would have ended up committing crimes and more prisoners would have had to be released.
    The rioters yes who actually caused damage and violence, tweeters and a 'cheeky' gay couple being jailed while burglars, robbers and those convicted of killing a teen given early release, no
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0rl7zqr80o
    I don't think being gay should give you a pass for violent conduct towards the police.

    None of the people in that article were convicted for sending tweets. The tweets that are referred to in the article listed a series of addresses where this bunch of thugs thought they could find asylum seekers.

    Give your head a wobble.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,855
    edited September 9
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    mercator said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Up to 1,750 offenders are spending their last night in prison before being released under the Ministry of Justice’s emergency plan to ease the overcrowding crisis in jails.

    Releases are due to begin on Tuesday morning as governors unlock cells under the plan to free up 5,500 beds.

    One charity has warned that women and children will become the unintended victims of the emergency plans - while rehabilitation specialists fear any rushed releases will compromise vital work in turning around the lives of some offenders.

    It’s also unclear whether everyone being released definitely has accommodation to go to, a crucial part in keeping ex-offenders off the streets."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5dn9jg5elo

    Meanwhile lots of jailed tweeters move in to take their cells
    This really is the most absurd situation. There was a plan to reduce prison overcrowding which made sense despite being highly controversial. Then in the face of the first episode of public disorder, the government resorted to mass imprisonment as a solution to a public order problem in what can only be assessed as a state of complete panic. The prison policy is basically over, the situation is worse than it has ever been.
    There's a kind of theory of separation of powers which says that sentencing over rioting is nowt to do wi' t' gumment. Not saying I wholeheartedly believe it with a slightly iffy DPPbot as PM, but that's how it's meant to work.
    The idea is that by jailing a few people in the first week, you avoid having to track down and jail thousands in the coming weeks/months as the race war starts to snowball.
    The way the government puts its oar into the justice system, is charging.

    In ordinary times, people are often charged with a lesser offence.

    In the case of the rioters, they got charged with what they did, in the explosive social context where they did it.

    Fuck around and find out applies here.
    https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2024-08-06/teens-killer-set-for-early-release-due-to-prison-overcrowding
    We should be grateful the CPS, courts and police worked so quickly to get people into jail. If it had carried on any longer, even more people would have ended up committing crimes and more prisoners would have had to be released.
    The rioters yes who actually caused damage and violence, tweeters and a 'cheeky' gay couple being jailed while burglars, robbers and those convicted of killing a teen given early release, no
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0rl7zqr80o
    It's more than "cheeky", and they pled guilty. There were 200 in the crowd they were inciting, btw. So far imo the convictions and sentences are pretty much running parallel to the riots in 2011.

    'My crimes just somehow happened to me' doesn't come to much as an explanation; they made choices to act as they did.

    They told police they came upon the disturbance on the way to the shop to buy more alcohol and ended up being “at the very forefront of the mob”.

    Rachel Masters, prosecuting, said officers at the scene described Mailen as “one of the main instigators of a large scale disturbance”.

    The court heard that over 10 minutes he “taunted” police and appeared to be “inciting the gathered crowd to use violence towards them”.

    Both Mailen and Sheers attempted to push through a police cordon, it was said.

    At one point Mailen approached an officer and “gesticulated towards him, shouting abuse at him” until he was struck on the leg by an officer’s extendable baton.

    Sheers, who one officer described as “particularly violent” was bitten by a police dog “in the right hip/buttock area”.

    Ms Masters said Mailen made an attempt to grab the dog or dog handler and when an officer tried to detain him, grabbed his radio and tucked it under his arm.

    He was struck again with a baton and kicked the officer in the shins numerous times.

    The court heard he continued to lash out as he was being arrested and it took three officers to get his arms behind his back and get the handcuffs on.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/bingo-rioters-jailed-hartlepool-couple-b2593333.html
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,763
    rcs1000 said:

    Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    Labour should introduce a UK FATCA-on-steroids:

    You want to be a British citizen?
    Then you're gonna have to pay British taxes. Wherever you live.
    (As a special concession, we'll let you deduct whatever local taxes you pay in Abroadland.)

    You don't want to be a British citizen anymore?
    Well fuck off then. But don't expect to come crawling back when it suits you.
    I agree with this. I think the US system (on this particular point) is very good. I still think the UK State takes too much in tax but however much they are going to take it should taken fairly and equitably from all British citizens wherever they live.

    As with all other tax arrangments you can have reciprocal agreements in place with the rest of the world so that any tax paid in country of residence/work is deducted from what you owe in the UK. But if you are paying less (or no) tax in another country then you are liable for the difference in the UK.

    I have spent most of my life working around the world and this is the regime under which I have always operated. But then I would not dream of living anywhere else but the UK long term so I figure that is my civic duty. It doesn't stop me arguing about how much tax the state takes from us all but that is a seperate argument to tax avoidance/evasion.
    The issue is that it gets really complicated, especially when different countries time taxable events as happening at different times.

    So, for example, if you sell your business for £1,000, of which half (£500) is an earn out that will be recieved 12 months later if targets are met.

    Well, in the UK, you get taxes on the whole amount up front, and you get to claim a tax loss the following year if you don't end up meeting the targets. By contrast, in the US they view the fact that you haven't recieved it yet as a sign you don't need to pay tax on it yet.
    It's totally illogical for people to pay UK taxes when they are living abroad and not using UK government services. That's why virtually no other country except the US does it.

    Of course if we want the very wealthy to renounce their citizenships and basically never come here and never pay UK taxes again, fine. We're already doing all we can to drive away the most productive and highest paying taxpayers. Why not get rid of the rest? And then wonder why the remaining, shrivelled middle classes are left with the bill.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,854

    Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    Labour should introduce a UK FATCA-on-steroids:

    You want to be a British citizen?
    Then you're gonna have to pay British taxes. Wherever you live.
    (As a special concession, we'll let you deduct whatever local taxes you pay in Abroadland.)

    You don't want to be a British citizen anymore?
    Well fuck off then. But don't expect to come crawling back when it suits you.
    But what about people who have dual nationality, especially Americans?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,272
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    mercator said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Up to 1,750 offenders are spending their last night in prison before being released under the Ministry of Justice’s emergency plan to ease the overcrowding crisis in jails.

    Releases are due to begin on Tuesday morning as governors unlock cells under the plan to free up 5,500 beds.

    One charity has warned that women and children will become the unintended victims of the emergency plans - while rehabilitation specialists fear any rushed releases will compromise vital work in turning around the lives of some offenders.

    It’s also unclear whether everyone being released definitely has accommodation to go to, a crucial part in keeping ex-offenders off the streets."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5dn9jg5elo

    Meanwhile lots of jailed tweeters move in to take their cells
    This really is the most absurd situation. There was a plan to reduce prison overcrowding which made sense despite being highly controversial. Then in the face of the first episode of public disorder, the government resorted to mass imprisonment as a solution to a public order problem in what can only be assessed as a state of complete panic. The prison policy is basically over, the situation is worse than it has ever been.
    There's a kind of theory of separation of powers which says that sentencing over rioting is nowt to do wi' t' gumment. Not saying I wholeheartedly believe it with a slightly iffy DPPbot as PM, but that's how it's meant to work.
    The idea is that by jailing a few people in the first week, you avoid having to track down and jail thousands in the coming weeks/months as the race war starts to snowball.
    The way the government puts its oar into the justice system, is charging.

    In ordinary times, people are often charged with a lesser offence.

    In the case of the rioters, they got charged with what they did.

    Fuck around and find out applies here.
    https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2024-08-06/teens-killer-set-for-early-release-due-to-prison-overcrowding
    We should be grateful the CPS, courts and police worked so quickly to get people into jail. If it had carried on any longer, even more people would have ended up committing crimes and more prisoners would have had to be released.
    The rioters yes who actually caused damage and violence, tweeters and a 'cheeky' gay couple being jailed while burglars, robbers and those convicted of killing a teen given early release, no
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0rl7zqr80o
    It's more than "cheeky", and they pled guilty. There were 200 in the crowd they were inciting, btw. So far imo the convictions and sentences are pretty much running parallel to the riots in 2011.

    'My crimes just somehow happened to me' doesn't come to much as an explanation; they made choices to act as they did.

    They told police they came upon the disturbance on the way to the shop to buy more alcohol and ended up being “at the very forefront of the mob”.

    Rachel Masters, prosecuting, said officers at the scene described Mailen as “one of the main instigators of a large scale disturbance”.

    The court heard that over 10 minutes he “taunted” police and appeared to be “inciting the gathered crowd to use violence towards them”.

    Both Mailen and Sheers attempted to push through a police cordon, it was said.

    At one point Mailen approached an officer and “gesticulated towards him, shouting abuse at him” until he was struck on the leg by an officer’s extendable baton.

    Sheers, who one officer described as “particularly violent” was bitten by a police dog “in the right hip/buttock area”.

    Ms Masters said Mailen made an attempt to grab the dog or dog handler and when an officer tried to detain him, grabbed his radio and tucked it under his arm.

    He was struck again with a baton and kicked the officer in the shins numerous times.

    The court heard he continued to lash out as he was being arrested and it took three officers to get his arms behind his back and get the handcuffs on.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/bingo-rioters-jailed-hartlepool-couple-b2593333.html
    What an ugly pair. Letting the side down.

    Reminiscent of the "gay bullies" characters in Seinfeld, only less amusing.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,437
    edited September 9
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    mercator said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Up to 1,750 offenders are spending their last night in prison before being released under the Ministry of Justice’s emergency plan to ease the overcrowding crisis in jails.

    Releases are due to begin on Tuesday morning as governors unlock cells under the plan to free up 5,500 beds.

    One charity has warned that women and children will become the unintended victims of the emergency plans - while rehabilitation specialists fear any rushed releases will compromise vital work in turning around the lives of some offenders.

    It’s also unclear whether everyone being released definitely has accommodation to go to, a crucial part in keeping ex-offenders off the streets."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5dn9jg5elo

    Meanwhile lots of jailed tweeters move in to take their cells
    This really is the most absurd situation. There was a plan to reduce prison overcrowding which made sense despite being highly controversial. Then in the face of the first episode of public disorder, the government resorted to mass imprisonment as a solution to a public order problem in what can only be assessed as a state of complete panic. The prison policy is basically over, the situation is worse than it has ever been.
    There's a kind of theory of separation of powers which says that sentencing over rioting is nowt to do wi' t' gumment. Not saying I wholeheartedly believe it with a slightly iffy DPPbot as PM, but that's how it's meant to work.
    The idea is that by jailing a few people in the first week, you avoid having to track down and jail thousands in the coming weeks/months as the race war starts to snowball.
    The way the government puts its oar into the justice system, is charging.

    In ordinary times, people are often charged with a lesser offence.

    In the case of the rioters, they got charged with what they did.

    Fuck around and find out applies here.
    https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2024-08-06/teens-killer-set-for-early-release-due-to-prison-overcrowding
    We should be grateful the CPS, courts and police worked so quickly to get people into jail. If it had carried on any longer, even more people would have ended up committing crimes and more prisoners would have had to be released.
    The rioters yes who actually caused damage and violence, tweeters and a 'cheeky' gay couple being jailed while burglars, robbers and those convicted of killing a teen given early release, no
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0rl7zqr80o
    I don't think being gay should give you a pass for violent conduct towards the police.

    None of the people in that article were convicted for sending tweets. The tweets that are referred to in the article listed a series of addresses where this bunch of thugs thought they could find asylum seekers.

    Give your head a wobble.
    I walked along Manvers Way, Wath upon Dearne yesterday. It really isn't a place that gives you bad vibes.

    Part of the road runs through a colliery turned business park with the usual sheds plus some chain drive-in rubbish like KFC and Costa. The road itself is a dual carriageway of early 90s urban bypass style. There are no houses built directly on it.

    The hotel (still boarded up) was clearly built to serve the local business areas. There are new housing estates behind it - probably newer than the business park and the road - which might be boring boxes but look reasonably kept and not terrible places. Certainly not somewhere that you would put down as the source of a riot. I can imagine that they might have had some difficulty with bored asylum seekers wandering about, but more as a source of complaint than violence.

    The whole episode does smell of outsider influence.


    BTW, about 400 yards along the road is a fairly large RSPB nature reserve (Bitterns etc) which uses mining subsidence to good effect. This is not some kind of urban hole, even if it is a former colliery town.


    Other parts of Rotherham District may differ...
  • ClippP said:

    Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    Labour should introduce a UK FATCA-on-steroids:

    You want to be a British citizen?
    Then you're gonna have to pay British taxes. Wherever you live.
    (As a special concession, we'll let you deduct whatever local taxes you pay in Abroadland.)

    You don't want to be a British citizen anymore?
    Well fuck off then. But don't expect to come crawling back when it suits you.
    But what about people who have dual nationality, especially Americans?
    It doesn't matter. Almost all counries have reciprocal tax agreements in place.

    Basically the country you are living and working in works out how much tax you should be paying and charges you accordingly.

    Your home country does the same thing but deducts any tax you have aleady paid overseas. You only have to pay the residual. If you have been working in a high tax country then you owe nothing to your home country - though of course you can't get anything back either.

    It is a system that has been in operation for decades and it is how I have been assessed for most of my working life - at least when working overseas.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,600
    @TheScreamingEagles will now become a Brexiteer thanks to Apple. The UK is getting the AI features on the new iPhone but the EU isn't for regulatory reasons.
  • Fishing said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    Labour should introduce a UK FATCA-on-steroids:

    You want to be a British citizen?
    Then you're gonna have to pay British taxes. Wherever you live.
    (As a special concession, we'll let you deduct whatever local taxes you pay in Abroadland.)

    You don't want to be a British citizen anymore?
    Well fuck off then. But don't expect to come crawling back when it suits you.
    I agree with this. I think the US system (on this particular point) is very good. I still think the UK State takes too much in tax but however much they are going to take it should taken fairly and equitably from all British citizens wherever they live.

    As with all other tax arrangments you can have reciprocal agreements in place with the rest of the world so that any tax paid in country of residence/work is deducted from what you owe in the UK. But if you are paying less (or no) tax in another country then you are liable for the difference in the UK.

    I have spent most of my life working around the world and this is the regime under which I have always operated. But then I would not dream of living anywhere else but the UK long term so I figure that is my civic duty. It doesn't stop me arguing about how much tax the state takes from us all but that is a seperate argument to tax avoidance/evasion.
    The issue is that it gets really complicated, especially when different countries time taxable events as happening at different times.

    So, for example, if you sell your business for £1,000, of which half (£500) is an earn out that will be recieved 12 months later if targets are met.

    Well, in the UK, you get taxes on the whole amount up front, and you get to claim a tax loss the following year if you don't end up meeting the targets. By contrast, in the US they view the fact that you haven't recieved it yet as a sign you don't need to pay tax on it yet.
    It's totally illogical for people to pay UK taxes when they are living abroad and not using UK government services. That's why virtually no other country except the US does it.

    Of course if we want the very wealthy to renounce their citizenships and basically never come here and never pay UK taxes again, fine. We're already doing all we can to drive away the most productive and highest paying taxpayers. Why not get rid of the rest? And then wonder why the remaining, shrivelled middle classes are left with the bill.
    If they don't want to pay taxes to the UK then they can surrender their British citizenship and their right to return. Why should they get any protections or support from the British Government if they are not willing to pay their way?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,051

    James Earl Jones has died. Surely one of the most iconic voices in cinema history and, by all accounts, a genuinely nice guy as well.

    RIP and (for all you Pratchett fans) GNU.

    If only Darth Vader had retained Dave Prowse's voice. The greatest missed cinematic opportunity ever.
    Lawk. Oi yam yow fahther.
  • viewcode said:

    James Earl Jones has died. Surely one of the most iconic voices in cinema history and, by all accounts, a genuinely nice guy as well.

    RIP and (for all you Pratchett fans) GNU.

    If only Darth Vader had retained Dave Prowse's voice. The greatest missed cinematic opportunity ever.
    Lawk. Oi yam yow fahther.
    The Daft Side is strong with this one!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,272

    @TheScreamingEagles will now become a Brexiteer thanks to Apple. The UK is getting the AI features on the new iPhone but the EU isn't for regulatory reasons.

    The real divergence is the laws we didn't change.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,351
    edited September 10
    Interesting how the German government has suddenly gone all "Paul Joseph Watson" in terms of its border policy.

    https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/germany-imposes-border-controls-to-curb-illegal-migration-9tdhb3pzq
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599
    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,280
    carnforth said:
    The EU was naïve enough to think that American companies would all go out of their way to develop special EU-approved restricted and backdoored AI, rather than just drop it completely in that market as being not worth the hassle.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,440
    edited September 10
    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    Absolutely dangerous riding/driving. I'd say the same for a cyclist going the same speed in that environment.

    As for the sentence length: the devil will be in the details with that one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,280
    edited September 10
    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
    AIUI there’s a number of Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits that are easily modifiable to turn them into what are legally mopeds and motorbikes, often capable of 50mph. The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.

    Police are testing these when confiscated from the scrotes, and if they’ve found to be motorbikes they’re adding motoring offences (dangerous driving, no insurance, registration etc) to the charges.

    As others have said, the issues need to be addressed in the supply chain and with customs inspections, to stop them getting into the country in the first place. By pure coincidence, the same Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits are the ones with cheap batteries and chargers, having the propensity to spontaneously combust - so they’re bloody dangerous even when not in use!
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,978
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Wheatcroft:

    … how can we describe the present contest for the leadership of the Conservative party? Half a dozen toothless people squabbling over a toothbrush?

    Fourteen years on [from 1997], it’s not just that last July the Tories suffered their worst defeat since the Reform Act of 1832, which began the gradual process of democratisation: this time it feels different. Alan Duncan retired from parliament in 2019 after nearly three decades as a Conservative MP, holding ministerial office for much of the past decade. His verdict is bleak: “I think the Conservative party is in a far worse state than it was in 1997. It’s intellectually bankrupt; it’s pretty well financially bankrupt; it’s certainly reputationally bankrupt.”

    That last was maybe the crucial point. When Theresa May told the Tory conference in 2002 that the Conservatives were in danger of being seen as “the nasty party”, it was a misprision. No one had ever voted for the Tories because they were “nice”. Their selling proposition was competence, and that has now been utterly lost, to a point where it may be very difficult ever to recover it.

    To return, unenthusiastically, to this leadership contest, it demonstrates in itself the Tories’ plight. When this bedraggled band of Tory MPs whittles the number of candidates down to two, a last choice is made by the members. To which one might respond: what members, and what party? In the early 1950s, the Conservative and Unionist party had 2.8 million members, and was one of the great popular political movements in Europe. Not surprisingly the Tories are coy about the present figure of membership, but it appears to be about 170,000. This is a party heading for extinction.

    A party which still got 6.8 million votes at the last general election and is just 4% behind Labour on the latest poll may be on the ropes but is not heading for extinction
    I agree with that. The important thing the Tories did in 2024 was to avoid extinction, which wasn't a given if the polling before the election had been accurate. They will live on to fight another day. But let's not underestimate the dire state they are in.
    Their fate is not entirely within their own hands. If Reform, or more likely the newly revitalised Lib Dems can make a better connection with the concerns of the voters, then the Tories would have to be at the top of their game to make any kind of come back. I don't think any of the leadership contenders can be described as such. It's going to be touch and go for the Tories gor quite a while.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599
    edited September 10
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
    AIUI there’s a number of Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits that are easily modifiable to turn them into what are legally mopeds and motorbikes, often capable of 50mph. The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.

    Police are testing these when confiscated from the scrotes, and if they’ve found to be motorbikes they’re adding motoring offences (dangerous driving, no insurance, registration etc) to the charges.

    As others have said, the issues need to be addressed in the supply chain and with customs inspections, to stop them getting into the country in the first place. By pure coincidence, the same Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits are the ones with cheap batteries and chargers, having the propensity to spontaneously combust - so they’re bloody dangerous even when not in use!
    There’s also some fairly important further context I suspect @darkage was unaware of:

    Sergiu Stanciu fell off his motorbike following the crash then went up to the pedestrian and began abusing him and threatening to stab him.

    A judge at Swansea Crown Court said it was clear the 18-year-old - who has a history of offending including threatening with a bladed article, affray, burglary, sexual assault, possession of cannabis, public order matters, criminal damage, and possession of knives - believed he was a "big man" in a gang. Sending the teenager down, the judge said the reality was Stanciu was a "very small person" and told him if he continued to "play Jack the lad" he would be facing ever longer sentences.


    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/teenage-biker-hits-pedestrian-races-29733329.amp

    Edit - also, the pedestrian was quite seriously hurt and had to spend two months in a plaster cast.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,280
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
    AIUI there’s a number of Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits that are easily modifiable to turn them into what are legally mopeds and motorbikes, often capable of 50mph. The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.

    Police are testing these when confiscated from the scrotes, and if they’ve found to be motorbikes they’re adding motoring offences (dangerous driving, no insurance, registration etc) to the charges.

    As others have said, the issues need to be addressed in the supply chain and with customs inspections, to stop them getting into the country in the first place. By pure coincidence, the same Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits are the ones with cheap batteries and chargers, having the propensity to spontaneously combust - so they’re bloody dangerous even when not in use!
    There’s also some fairly important further context I suspect @darkage was unaware of:

    Sergiu Stanciu fell off his motorbike following the crash then went up to the pedestrian and began abusing him and threatening to stab him.

    A judge at Swansea Crown Court said it was clear the 18-year-old - who has a history of offending including threatening with a bladed article, affray, burglary, sexual assault, possession of cannabis, public order matters, criminal damage, and possession of knives - believed he was a "big man" in a gang. Sending the teenager down, the judge said the reality was Stanciu was a "very small person" and told him if he continued to "play Jack the lad" he would be facing ever longer sentences.


    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/teenage-biker-hits-pedestrian-races-29733329.amp

    Edit - also, the pedestrian was quite seriously hurt and had to spend two months in a plaster cast.
    Ah, one of ‘those’ scrotes.

    Well locking him up probably saves a few hundred people in Swansea from having their phones pinched in the next few months.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,440
    It's amazing how many small people like to act as though they're big people...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,280
    Ukranians have been blowing up bridges again.

    This one a temporary bridge over the Seym river in Kursk Oblast. The army damaged it a couple of of days ago, and now the Air Force made absolutely sure it wasn’t going to be of any use to the enemy.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1833274706038034654

    There’s thousands of Russian troops trapped by this river, and their engineering guys can’t keep a bridge up for more than a day or two before it gets targeted.
  • ClippP said:

    Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    Labour should introduce a UK FATCA-on-steroids:

    You want to be a British citizen?
    Then you're gonna have to pay British taxes. Wherever you live.
    (As a special concession, we'll let you deduct whatever local taxes you pay in Abroadland.)

    You don't want to be a British citizen anymore?
    Well fuck off then. But don't expect to come crawling back when it suits you.
    But what about people who have dual nationality, especially Americans?
    It doesn't matter. Almost all counries have reciprocal tax agreements in place.

    Basically the country you are living and working in works out how much tax you should be paying and charges you accordingly.

    Your home country does the same thing but deducts any tax you have aleady paid overseas. You only have to pay the residual. If you have been working in a high tax country then you owe nothing to your home country - though of course you can't get anything back either.

    It is a system that has been in operation for decades and it is how I have been assessed for most of my working life - at least when working overseas.

    Tax arrangements coming soon to WFH nomads.
  • Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    The Mullins thing is just weird.

    Cameroon fan turned rabid Lib Dem anti Brexit Remoaner - this bit makes sense even if I disagree with it. But then he ends up supporting Reform - the vanity vehicle of the very man he spent so many years railing against.

    Plus he has sold his business and is basically retired living off the proceeds. So exactly why is he such a loss to the UK?

    As a poster boy for Telegraph anti-tax campaigns he a very poor choice.
    Mullins personally, or anyone as an individual, is not that important.

    The wider story is that Covid support payments meant a huge bonanza for the asset-owning classes and our only hope of getting any of it back is to keep them here, either to tax them or pray for trickle down spending.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,280

    ClippP said:

    Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    Labour should introduce a UK FATCA-on-steroids:

    You want to be a British citizen?
    Then you're gonna have to pay British taxes. Wherever you live.
    (As a special concession, we'll let you deduct whatever local taxes you pay in Abroadland.)

    You don't want to be a British citizen anymore?
    Well fuck off then. But don't expect to come crawling back when it suits you.
    But what about people who have dual nationality, especially Americans?
    It doesn't matter. Almost all counries have reciprocal tax agreements in place.

    Basically the country you are living and working in works out how much tax you should be paying and charges you accordingly.

    Your home country does the same thing but deducts any tax you have aleady paid overseas. You only have to pay the residual. If you have been working in a high tax country then you owe nothing to your home country - though of course you can't get anything back either.

    It is a system that has been in operation for decades and it is how I have been assessed for most of my working life - at least when working overseas.

    Tax arrangements coming soon to WFH nomads.
    The only other country that does this is the US, and even for Americans living abroad there’s a $112,000 personal allowance for earned income, and it’s allowed to deduct things like rent from your taxable income.

    https://wise.com/us/blog/us-taxes-for-citizens-living-abroad

    I know personally a number of people who have renounced US citizenship over this. I know a number of others who arrange in certain jurisdictions to be paid bonuses in cash. There’s almost no better policy for totally alienating those who we wish to see contribute. Great news for countries like Malta and Portugal though, who will sell you citizenship inside the EU for property investment in the €500k range.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,522
    Good morning, everyone.

    The idea someone living in country A, working in country A, and paying taxes in country A, should also pay taxes in country B is nuts. I believe the US and Eritrea are the only countries who currently do this, and one of them is a tyrannical slave state.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599

    Good morning, everyone.

    The idea someone living in country A, working in country A, and paying taxes in country A, should also pay taxes in country B is nuts. I believe the US and Eritrea are the only countries who currently do this, and one of them is a tyrannical slave state.

    And I hear Eritrea's hardly paradise either.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,595

    nico679 said:

    Rachel Austerity Reeves has told Labour MPs tonight that they have to sacrifice the well-being, health and even lives of pensioners to the demands of the City of London for proof that Labour are fiscally tough. Except, the City isn’t demanding it does so. So what is really going on?

    Labour boxed themselves in with their over the top fiscal rules. They also shot themselves in the foot by ruling out higher taxes on the top 5% . Reeves is obsessed with looking tough and is overcompensating. Whether people agree with the WFA change or not surely everyone can agree that the policy change optics and the way it’s been communicated has been abysmal .
    Mick Lynch is spot on today - Labours made up fiscal rule means they can't fix the countrys problems (which one might argue is the point of it!)

    He wants a progressive wealth tax with the richest paying the same as everyone else on PAYE.

    That would bring in hundred of billions, it is time for the richest to pay what everyone else has been paying their whole lives.
    Ooh! A Tax Gap believer.

    Can I sell you a bridge, low mileage, one careless owner?
    Another one who seems to think a ‘wealth tax’ is a simple cure all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,599

    ClippP said:

    Still early days, but one quick win for the new Labour Government is Charlie Mullins plans to leave the country.

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/downing-st-hits-back-after-britains-richest-plumber-vowed-to-quit-britain/

    Labour should introduce a UK FATCA-on-steroids:

    You want to be a British citizen?
    Then you're gonna have to pay British taxes. Wherever you live.
    (As a special concession, we'll let you deduct whatever local taxes you pay in Abroadland.)

    You don't want to be a British citizen anymore?
    Well fuck off then. But don't expect to come crawling back when it suits you.
    But what about people who have dual nationality, especially Americans?
    It doesn't matter. Almost all counries have reciprocal tax agreements in place.

    Basically the country you are living and working in works out how much tax you should be paying and charges you accordingly.

    Your home country does the same thing but deducts any tax you have aleady paid overseas. You only have to pay the residual. If you have been working in a high tax country then you owe nothing to your home country - though of course you can't get anything back either.

    It is a system that has been in operation for decades and it is how I have been assessed for most of my working life - at least when working overseas.

    Tax arrangements coming soon to WFH nomads.
    Will Reeves resurrect that old favourite, 'citizens of nowhere?'
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,280
    edited September 10

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
    AIUI there’s a number of Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits that are easily modifiable to turn them into what are legally mopeds and motorbikes, often capable of 50mph. The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.

    Police are testing these when confiscated from the scrotes, and if they’ve found to be motorbikes they’re adding motoring offences (dangerous driving, no insurance, registration etc) to the charges.

    As others have said, the issues need to be addressed in the supply chain and with customs inspections, to stop them getting into the country in the first place. By pure coincidence, the same Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits are the ones with cheap batteries and chargers, having the propensity to spontaneously combust - so they’re bloody dangerous even when not in use!
    “ The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.”

    The manufacturer cares. Their sales depend on the mod being easy and obvious.
    Our resident maverick mechanic will be along in a minute, to say that the same thing has been happening for decades with petrol-powered mopeds, it being a relatively simple job to remove a restrictor plate on those as well.

    Which is totally true of course, but what’s changed now is that it’s vehicles that are never registered in the first place being modified to go very quickly indeed, and that look from the outside like regular bicycles.

    It’s a bit like the fast Tesla saloon car that they put 1,000bhp motors in. It can drag race with McLarens, but doesn’t look like it can! The McLaren clearly looks like it belongs on the track. https://youtube.com/watch?v=QDVBnY35EYc
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,415
    Taz said:

    nico679 said:

    Rachel Austerity Reeves has told Labour MPs tonight that they have to sacrifice the well-being, health and even lives of pensioners to the demands of the City of London for proof that Labour are fiscally tough. Except, the City isn’t demanding it does so. So what is really going on?

    Labour boxed themselves in with their over the top fiscal rules. They also shot themselves in the foot by ruling out higher taxes on the top 5% . Reeves is obsessed with looking tough and is overcompensating. Whether people agree with the WFA change or not surely everyone can agree that the policy change optics and the way it’s been communicated has been abysmal .
    Mick Lynch is spot on today - Labours made up fiscal rule means they can't fix the countrys problems (which one might argue is the point of it!)

    He wants a progressive wealth tax with the richest paying the same as everyone else on PAYE.

    That would bring in hundred of billions, it is time for the richest to pay what everyone else has been paying their whole lives.
    Ooh! A Tax Gap believer.

    Can I sell you a bridge, low mileage, one careless owner?
    Another one who seems to think a ‘wealth tax’ is a simple cure all.
    It’s just another Populist Policy.

    “This one trick, that politicians don’t want you to know about…”
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,660

    Taz said:

    nico679 said:

    Rachel Austerity Reeves has told Labour MPs tonight that they have to sacrifice the well-being, health and even lives of pensioners to the demands of the City of London for proof that Labour are fiscally tough. Except, the City isn’t demanding it does so. So what is really going on?

    Labour boxed themselves in with their over the top fiscal rules. They also shot themselves in the foot by ruling out higher taxes on the top 5% . Reeves is obsessed with looking tough and is overcompensating. Whether people agree with the WFA change or not surely everyone can agree that the policy change optics and the way it’s been communicated has been abysmal .
    Mick Lynch is spot on today - Labours made up fiscal rule means they can't fix the countrys problems (which one might argue is the point of it!)

    He wants a progressive wealth tax with the richest paying the same as everyone else on PAYE.

    That would bring in hundred of billions, it is time for the richest to pay what everyone else has been paying their whole lives.
    Ooh! A Tax Gap believer.

    Can I sell you a bridge, low mileage, one careless owner?
    Another one who seems to think a ‘wealth tax’ is a simple cure all.
    It’s just another Populist Policy.

    “This one trick, that politicians don’t want you to know about…”
    My 'like' is for an amusing coinage. I do actually think that politicians have a lot of tricks they don't want you to know about. But they don't relate to rinsing the mobile rich.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,415

    Taz said:

    nico679 said:

    Rachel Austerity Reeves has told Labour MPs tonight that they have to sacrifice the well-being, health and even lives of pensioners to the demands of the City of London for proof that Labour are fiscally tough. Except, the City isn’t demanding it does so. So what is really going on?

    Labour boxed themselves in with their over the top fiscal rules. They also shot themselves in the foot by ruling out higher taxes on the top 5% . Reeves is obsessed with looking tough and is overcompensating. Whether people agree with the WFA change or not surely everyone can agree that the policy change optics and the way it’s been communicated has been abysmal .
    Mick Lynch is spot on today - Labours made up fiscal rule means they can't fix the countrys problems (which one might argue is the point of it!)

    He wants a progressive wealth tax with the richest paying the same as everyone else on PAYE.

    That would bring in hundred of billions, it is time for the richest to pay what everyone else has been paying their whole lives.
    Ooh! A Tax Gap believer.

    Can I sell you a bridge, low mileage, one careless owner?
    Another one who seems to think a ‘wealth tax’ is a simple cure all.
    It’s just another Populist Policy.

    “This one trick, that politicians don’t want you to know about…”
    My 'like' is for an amusing coinage. I do actually think that politicians have a lot of tricks they don't want you to know about. But they don't relate to rinsing the mobile rich.
    I have a header to write on this. But there seems to be a convergence between these kinds of policies, and the Miracle Medicine type ads.

    {Horatio Bottomley has entered the chat}
  • Good morning, everyone.

    The idea someone living in country A, working in country A, and paying taxes in country A, should also pay taxes in country B is nuts. I believe the US and Eritrea are the only countries who currently do this, and one of them is a tyrannical slave state.

    What of the mirror situation where someone living in country A, working in country A, is paying tax in country B not A?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,280
    edited September 10
    Taz said:

    nico679 said:

    Rachel Austerity Reeves has told Labour MPs tonight that they have to sacrifice the well-being, health and even lives of pensioners to the demands of the City of London for proof that Labour are fiscally tough. Except, the City isn’t demanding it does so. So what is really going on?

    Labour boxed themselves in with their over the top fiscal rules. They also shot themselves in the foot by ruling out higher taxes on the top 5% . Reeves is obsessed with looking tough and is overcompensating. Whether people agree with the WFA change or not surely everyone can agree that the policy change optics and the way it’s been communicated has been abysmal .
    Mick Lynch is spot on today - Labours made up fiscal rule means they can't fix the countrys problems (which one might argue is the point of it!)

    He wants a progressive wealth tax with the richest paying the same as everyone else on PAYE.

    That would bring in hundred of billions, it is time for the richest to pay what everyone else has been paying their whole lives.
    Ooh! A Tax Gap believer.

    Can I sell you a bridge, low mileage, one careless owner?
    Another one who seems to think a ‘wealth tax’ is a simple cure all.
    That’s nearly as good as the financial services tax, the idea that taxing all transactions running through the stock market at 0.1% would amount to hundreds of billions of pounds a year. Except that it won’t, because people will just stop running high-frequency trading models in London, which accounts for more than 99% of all trades.

    Anyone who wants to tax “weath”, first needs to define the word. For the vast majority of people in the UK, their assets amount to a house, a pension plan, and perhaps some savings for a rainy day.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,895
    edited September 10
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
    AIUI there’s a number of Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits that are easily modifiable to turn them into what are legally mopeds and motorbikes, often capable of 50mph. The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.

    Police are testing these when confiscated from the scrotes, and if they’ve found to be motorbikes they’re adding motoring offences (dangerous driving, no insurance, registration etc) to the charges.

    As others have said, the issues need to be addressed in the supply chain and with customs inspections, to stop them getting into the country in the first place. By pure coincidence, the same Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits are the ones with cheap batteries and chargers, having the propensity to spontaneously combust - so they’re bloody dangerous even when not in use!
    There’s also some fairly important further context I suspect @darkage was unaware of:

    Sergiu Stanciu fell off his motorbike following the crash then went up to the pedestrian and began abusing him and threatening to stab him.

    A judge at Swansea Crown Court said it was clear the 18-year-old - who has a history of offending including threatening with a bladed article, affray, burglary, sexual assault, possession of cannabis, public order matters, criminal damage, and possession of knives - believed he was a "big man" in a gang. Sending the teenager down, the judge said the reality was Stanciu was a "very small person" and told him if he continued to "play Jack the lad" he would be facing ever longer sentences.


    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/teenage-biker-hits-pedestrian-races-29733329.amp

    Edit - also, the pedestrian was quite seriously hurt and had to spend two months in a plaster cast.
    If Wales online can manage to accurately describe it... I've sent a note to the BBC to see if they will update their article.

    (I think the pedestrian is a bit lucky that they haven't been sanctioned for knocking him off. He held out his hand and that's what caused the collision. I know he has an explanation but...)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,280
    Coming up on T minus one hour for the latest attempt to launch the SpaceX Polaris Dawn mission, following a delay a couple of weeks ago.

    They plan to fly to an altitude of 1,400km above the surface of Earth, the furthest astronauts have been from our planet since the Apollo program finished - before I was born!

    https://x.com/spacex/status/1833358277805039800
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,003

    Hurrah, like lawyers, life gets better when bankers get involved.

    Angela Rayner, the Housing Secretary, has struck a £150m deal with Britain’s biggest housebuilder to build a string of new garden towns and villages across the country as ministers seek to ramp up their ambitious housing plans.

    Building giant Barratt Developments has teamed up with Lloyds Banking Group to build thousands of new homes in a joint venture led by Homes England, the government body responsible for housebuilding.

    The scheme, known as the Made Partnership, will act as master developer for new residential developments ranging from 1,000 homes to more than 10,000 which will be built across the UK.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/09/angela-rayner-150m-barratt-garden-towns/

    You do realise this is over 20 years.

    Wont even touch the sides,

    We need about another 20 of these.
    Tories are easily hoodwinked
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,415
    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
    AIUI there’s a number of Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits that are easily modifiable to turn them into what are legally mopeds and motorbikes, often capable of 50mph. The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.

    Police are testing these when confiscated from the scrotes, and if they’ve found to be motorbikes they’re adding motoring offences (dangerous driving, no insurance, registration etc) to the charges.

    As others have said, the issues need to be addressed in the supply chain and with customs inspections, to stop them getting into the country in the first place. By pure coincidence, the same Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits are the ones with cheap batteries and chargers, having the propensity to spontaneously combust - so they’re bloody dangerous even when not in use!
    There’s also some fairly important further context I suspect @darkage was unaware of:

    Sergiu Stanciu fell off his motorbike following the crash then went up to the pedestrian and began abusing him and threatening to stab him.

    A judge at Swansea Crown Court said it was clear the 18-year-old - who has a history of offending including threatening with a bladed article, affray, burglary, sexual assault, possession of cannabis, public order matters, criminal damage, and possession of knives - believed he was a "big man" in a gang. Sending the teenager down, the judge said the reality was Stanciu was a "very small person" and told him if he continued to "play Jack the lad" he would be facing ever longer sentences.


    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/teenage-biker-hits-pedestrian-races-29733329.amp

    Edit - also, the pedestrian was quite seriously hurt and had to spend two months in a plaster cast.
    If Wales online can manage to accurately describe it... I've sent a note to the BBC to see if they will update their article.

    (I think the pedestrian is a bit lucky that they haven't been sanctioned for knocking him off. He held out his hand and that's what caused the collision. I know he has an explanation but...)
    He “held out his hands in a slowing down gesture”. On a pedestrianised street.

    That’s hardly shoving a piece of pipe into the front wheel.

    I’m reminded of the story of the magistrate, many years ago (pre sentencing guidelines), who was forced to convict on the evidence. Then sentenced the offender to 2 minutes detention.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,726
    This is crazy stuff.

    Not only did the Romanian air force not shoot down russian drones in their airspace, they escorted them with F-16s for over 100 km from Năvodari to the UA-RO international border so they could strike targets in Odesa region.
    https://x.com/mhmck/status/1832815563371848143

    I don't particularly blame Romania, as it's likely NATO consensus not to 'escalate'.
    The message it sends is that NATO doesn't even have the resolve to defend its own airspace.
    That does not augur well for any peace agreement after the war in Ukraine. Without credible deterrence, Russia will try again.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,520
    Morning consult state polling

    National: Harris 49/46
    VA: Harris 52/42
    MN: Harris 51/44
    WI: Harris 49/46
    PA: Harris 49/46
    MI: Harris 49/46
    GA: 48/48
    NV: 48/48
    NC: 48/48
    AZ: Trump 49/47
    FL: Trump 49/47
    TX: Trump 52/43

    https://www.270towin.com/polls/latest-2024-presidential-election-polls/
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,895

    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
    AIUI there’s a number of Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits that are easily modifiable to turn them into what are legally mopeds and motorbikes, often capable of 50mph. The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.

    Police are testing these when confiscated from the scrotes, and if they’ve found to be motorbikes they’re adding motoring offences (dangerous driving, no insurance, registration etc) to the charges.

    As others have said, the issues need to be addressed in the supply chain and with customs inspections, to stop them getting into the country in the first place. By pure coincidence, the same Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits are the ones with cheap batteries and chargers, having the propensity to spontaneously combust - so they’re bloody dangerous even when not in use!
    There’s also some fairly important further context I suspect @darkage was unaware of:

    Sergiu Stanciu fell off his motorbike following the crash then went up to the pedestrian and began abusing him and threatening to stab him.

    A judge at Swansea Crown Court said it was clear the 18-year-old - who has a history of offending including threatening with a bladed article, affray, burglary, sexual assault, possession of cannabis, public order matters, criminal damage, and possession of knives - believed he was a "big man" in a gang. Sending the teenager down, the judge said the reality was Stanciu was a "very small person" and told him if he continued to "play Jack the lad" he would be facing ever longer sentences.


    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/teenage-biker-hits-pedestrian-races-29733329.amp

    Edit - also, the pedestrian was quite seriously hurt and had to spend two months in a plaster cast.
    If Wales online can manage to accurately describe it... I've sent a note to the BBC to see if they will update their article.

    (I think the pedestrian is a bit lucky that they haven't been sanctioned for knocking him off. He held out his hand and that's what caused the collision. I know he has an explanation but...)
    He “held out his hands in a slowing down gesture”. On a pedestrianised street.

    That’s hardly shoving a piece of pipe into the front wheel.

    I’m reminded of the story of the magistrate, many years ago (pre sentencing guidelines), who was forced to convict on the evidence. Then sentenced the offender to 2 minutes detention.
    I think that would have been the likely outcome had the police made a fuss about it. They probably thought the smashed up hand was more than enough.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,003

    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:


    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    DavidL said:

    The big momentum for Harris has clearly petered out. She has more money, more offices, more volunteers and is getting more of the new registrations and yet, somehow, Trump is edging back.

    The suggestion I have read is that pollsters generally did make changes to their weighting after underestimating Trump in 2016 and 2020 but have they overdone it and are we comparing like with like when Harris seems at least as far behind as Clinton and nowhere near where Biden was in 2020?

    Its tight. I was reluctant to believe that for a time, now I am kinda hoping for it.

    Harris has only just entered and hasn't said very much, definitely hasn't really been tested. So the situation is likely to be a lot more volatile than any other comparable presidential election. It could go well for her or it could go very badly.

    I don't follow the election in the same level of details as others posting on this website, but I would observe that Trump has been making efforts to appeal to 'centrists', ie with the Kennedy and Musk endorsements, and by going on the Lex Fridman podcast, and driving the idea that this is actually a 'coalition to save America', which is quite a big change in strategy and something that might be influencing the improvement in the polls.
    I read a poll finding somewhere this morning that indicated that Americans view Trump as less extreme than Harris.
    All the 'Communist Harris' shit that's being thrown at her.

    Which is odd, as she isn't in any way Communist, whilst it's easy to argue that Trump has at least some fascist traits to him.

    America's fucked.
    “Equitable treatment means we all end up at the same place.”

    https://x.com/kamalaharris/status/1322963321994289154
    That isn't Communism though, is it? Far from, in fact.
    Why far from it?
    https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1847/11/prin-com.htm
    She even borrows directly from his argument that "equality" entrenches the bourgeoisie.
    Yeah, right. How about all the rest of it?

    Harris's views are not exactly remarkable for (say) a European perspective for centre-left (or even some centre-right) people.

    But I see you also ignore the Trump veering towards Fascism point. To help you:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitions_of_fascism#Umberto_Eco

    (I'm not saying Trump matches all of these, but he does match a worrying number of them.)
    Harris got well in to the 'woke' era around 2020 including stuff like this. It is all up there online. 'Equity' is a vague concept but in these illustrations suggests equality of outcome which violates deeply held American notions of freedom, free enterprise, self determination etc. In all seriousness I think it could be determinative in relation to the election - ie it is being used by Trump as evidence of 'communism' which is quite hard for her to rebut.

    My point earlier was that Biden always steered well away from this stuff and it is off putting for lots of voters who are sceptical of DEI stuff.
    Another example of 'equity' versus 'freedom' in the context of the election.

    So Tim Walz believe kids should be fed at school so they can learn better and JD Vance believes kids should accept being shot at school as a "fact of life."
    Vote accordingly.

    https://x.com/VABVOX/status/1832532091088588824
    This post (the one on Twitter) is an example of the prevailing low quality political discourse.
    The 'liberals' are misrepresenting Vance as someone who supports school shootings, in the same way that the other side misrepresent Harris as a communist.
    Both Vance and Harris lack the political skill to avoid this, because they provide the source material in the first place.
    I don't think it is 'equity' vs 'freedom', it is just an exchange of propaganda.
    No they aren't. Only on imbecile would believe that.
    They are pointing out that Vance says it's an unfortunate reality Republicans won't do anything about.
    Only one of the two parties favours gun control; the other is a strong supporter of a maximalist interpretation of the Second Amendment and has legislated and appointed judges accordingly, for at least the last two decades.

    It's not dishonest to quote Vance, selectively or not, to reinforce that point.
    As I recall, J D Vance's quote was part of a call for more armed security in schools - that is not doing nothing, albeit that it is a solution that you (using your extensive knowledge and experience on the topic no doubt) don't agree with. So the Tweet you've provided is absolutely a dishonest misrepresentation of his stance, and if you want to pump out such bilge, may I suggest you do so to some people with an actual vote, who are currently planning on voting for Trump. Do let us know how you get on.
    FFS where do they find these nutters, the solution is more guns, who would have imagined.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,440
    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
    AIUI there’s a number of Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits that are easily modifiable to turn them into what are legally mopeds and motorbikes, often capable of 50mph. The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.

    Police are testing these when confiscated from the scrotes, and if they’ve found to be motorbikes they’re adding motoring offences (dangerous driving, no insurance, registration etc) to the charges.

    As others have said, the issues need to be addressed in the supply chain and with customs inspections, to stop them getting into the country in the first place. By pure coincidence, the same Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits are the ones with cheap batteries and chargers, having the propensity to spontaneously combust - so they’re bloody dangerous even when not in use!
    There’s also some fairly important further context I suspect @darkage was unaware of:

    Sergiu Stanciu fell off his motorbike following the crash then went up to the pedestrian and began abusing him and threatening to stab him.

    A judge at Swansea Crown Court said it was clear the 18-year-old - who has a history of offending including threatening with a bladed article, affray, burglary, sexual assault, possession of cannabis, public order matters, criminal damage, and possession of knives - believed he was a "big man" in a gang. Sending the teenager down, the judge said the reality was Stanciu was a "very small person" and told him if he continued to "play Jack the lad" he would be facing ever longer sentences.


    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/teenage-biker-hits-pedestrian-races-29733329.amp

    Edit - also, the pedestrian was quite seriously hurt and had to spend two months in a plaster cast.
    If Wales online can manage to accurately describe it... I've sent a note to the BBC to see if they will update their article.

    (I think the pedestrian is a bit lucky that they haven't been sanctioned for knocking him off. He held out his hand and that's what caused the collision. I know he has an explanation but...)
    Sticking your hand out when you see a potential threat coming towards you can be a natural instinctive reaction. I've done it in the past, and then wondered why the f I did so.

    Similar to that poor woman who was convicted (and condemned) over the Huntingdon death.
  • Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    nico679 said:

    Rachel Austerity Reeves has told Labour MPs tonight that they have to sacrifice the well-being, health and even lives of pensioners to the demands of the City of London for proof that Labour are fiscally tough. Except, the City isn’t demanding it does so. So what is really going on?

    Labour boxed themselves in with their over the top fiscal rules. They also shot themselves in the foot by ruling out higher taxes on the top 5% . Reeves is obsessed with looking tough and is overcompensating. Whether people agree with the WFA change or not surely everyone can agree that the policy change optics and the way it’s been communicated has been abysmal .
    Mick Lynch is spot on today - Labours made up fiscal rule means they can't fix the countrys problems (which one might argue is the point of it!)

    He wants a progressive wealth tax with the richest paying the same as everyone else on PAYE.

    That would bring in hundred of billions, it is time for the richest to pay what everyone else has been paying their whole lives.
    Ooh! A Tax Gap believer.

    Can I sell you a bridge, low mileage, one careless owner?
    Another one who seems to think a ‘wealth tax’ is a simple cure all.
    That’s nearly as good as the financial services tax, the idea that taxing all transactions running through the stock market at 0.1% would amount to hundreds of billions of pounds a year. Except that it won’t, because people will just stop running high-frequency trading models in London, which accounts for more than 99% of all trades.

    Anyone who wants to tax “weath”, first needs to define the word. For the vast majority of people in the UK, their assets amount to a house, a pension plan, and perhaps some savings for a rainy day.
    A Tobin tax would possibly have prevented the GFC, not for the tax itself but because it would mean a central record of who dealt with whom. This would mean vulnerable institutions could be identified and isolated while viable banks continue normally.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
    AIUI there’s a number of Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits that are easily modifiable to turn them into what are legally mopeds and motorbikes, often capable of 50mph. The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.
    !
    I've modified a SurRon up to 28kW and 78mph. 🫡

    The demand for these services is essentially infinite. I could easily do 30-40/week if I were inclined which I'm not because it's boring work once you've done a few.
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