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The State of the Union Week 2 – politicalbetting.com

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  • NEW THREAD

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Eabhal said:

    mercator said:

    darkage said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Up to 1,750 offenders are spending their last night in prison before being released under the Ministry of Justice’s emergency plan to ease the overcrowding crisis in jails.

    Releases are due to begin on Tuesday morning as governors unlock cells under the plan to free up 5,500 beds.

    One charity has warned that women and children will become the unintended victims of the emergency plans - while rehabilitation specialists fear any rushed releases will compromise vital work in turning around the lives of some offenders.

    It’s also unclear whether everyone being released definitely has accommodation to go to, a crucial part in keeping ex-offenders off the streets."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5dn9jg5elo

    Meanwhile lots of jailed tweeters move in to take their cells
    This really is the most absurd situation. There was a plan to reduce prison overcrowding which made sense despite being highly controversial. Then in the face of the first episode of public disorder, the government resorted to mass imprisonment as a solution to a public order problem in what can only be assessed as a state of complete panic. The prison policy is basically over, the situation is worse than it has ever been.
    There's a kind of theory of separation of powers which says that sentencing over rioting is nowt to do wi' t' gumment. Not saying I wholeheartedly believe it with a slightly iffy DPPbot as PM, but that's how it's meant to work.
    The idea is that by jailing a few people in the first week, you avoid having to track down and jail thousands in the coming weeks/months as the race war starts to snowball.
    The way the government puts its oar into the justice system, is charging.

    In ordinary times, people are often charged with a lesser offence.

    In the case of the rioters, they got charged with what they did.

    Fuck around and find out applies here.
    Pity they did not apply similar to robbing rich f**ers who can steal hundreds of millions and get off Scot Free.
    They are just Tories with red ties. The snivelling lickspittles will vote with Reeves to ensure they keep their 3K+ heating/utility allowance and their place at the trough. If I hear 21.9 Billion black hole one more time , they must have made the dumb f**kers recite it a thousand times. Solution soak the poorest in society.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Musky Baby is shilling for Russia again.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1833337261716607116

    "Stop funding Ukraine!" basically means "Let Russia win."

    And the comments below are more than the usual sycophantic ones he gets.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Selebian said:

    Just seen the Wales's video.

    Great news for Kate, it seems, so fingers crossed her recovery continues. But am I alone in finding the video a little odd - just a bit impersonal and, frankly, like an ad for sanitary pads? By contrast I found the simple video where she announced she had cancer quite honest and moving.

    They've presumably been advised on this and it fits in with a certain kind of social media celeb/influencer style I guess. Maybe I'm just getting old, but I miss the Queen staring sternly over her glasses and talking about her horrible year.

    Fake crap that woudl make you vomit, it was faked up , photoshopped diahrroea. Pap for morons.
  • malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:


    Nigelb said:

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    DavidL said:

    The big momentum for Harris has clearly petered out. She has more money, more offices, more volunteers and is getting more of the new registrations and yet, somehow, Trump is edging back.

    The suggestion I have read is that pollsters generally did make changes to their weighting after underestimating Trump in 2016 and 2020 but have they overdone it and are we comparing like with like when Harris seems at least as far behind as Clinton and nowhere near where Biden was in 2020?

    Its tight. I was reluctant to believe that for a time, now I am kinda hoping for it.

    Harris has only just entered and hasn't said very much, definitely hasn't really been tested. So the situation is likely to be a lot more volatile than any other comparable presidential election. It could go well for her or it could go very badly.

    I don't follow the election in the same level of details as others posting on this website, but I would observe that Trump has been making efforts to appeal to 'centrists', ie with the Kennedy and Musk endorsements, and by going on the Lex Fridman podcast, and driving the idea that this is actually a 'coalition to save America', which is quite a big change in strategy and something that might be influencing the improvement in the polls.
    I read a poll finding somewhere this morning that indicated that Americans view Trump as less extreme than Harris.
    All the 'Communist Harris' shit that's being thrown at her.

    Which is odd, as she isn't in any way Communist, whilst it's easy to argue that Trump has at least some fascist traits to him.

    America's fucked.
    “Equitable treatment means we all end up at the same place.”

    https://x.com/kamalaharris/status/1322963321994289154
    That isn't Communism though, is it? Far from, in fact.
    Why far from it?
    https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1847/11/prin-com.htm
    She even borrows directly from his argument that "equality" entrenches the bourgeoisie.
    Yeah, right. How about all the rest of it?

    Harris's views are not exactly remarkable for (say) a European perspective for centre-left (or even some centre-right) people.

    But I see you also ignore the Trump veering towards Fascism point. To help you:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitions_of_fascism#Umberto_Eco

    (I'm not saying Trump matches all of these, but he does match a worrying number of them.)
    Harris got well in to the 'woke' era around 2020 including stuff like this. It is all up there online. 'Equity' is a vague concept but in these illustrations suggests equality of outcome which violates deeply held American notions of freedom, free enterprise, self determination etc. In all seriousness I think it could be determinative in relation to the election - ie it is being used by Trump as evidence of 'communism' which is quite hard for her to rebut.

    My point earlier was that Biden always steered well away from this stuff and it is off putting for lots of voters who are sceptical of DEI stuff.
    Another example of 'equity' versus 'freedom' in the context of the election.

    So Tim Walz believe kids should be fed at school so they can learn better and JD Vance believes kids should accept being shot at school as a "fact of life."
    Vote accordingly.

    https://x.com/VABVOX/status/1832532091088588824
    This post (the one on Twitter) is an example of the prevailing low quality political discourse.
    The 'liberals' are misrepresenting Vance as someone who supports school shootings, in the same way that the other side misrepresent Harris as a communist.
    Both Vance and Harris lack the political skill to avoid this, because they provide the source material in the first place.
    I don't think it is 'equity' vs 'freedom', it is just an exchange of propaganda.
    No they aren't. Only on imbecile would believe that.
    They are pointing out that Vance says it's an unfortunate reality Republicans won't do anything about.
    Only one of the two parties favours gun control; the other is a strong supporter of a maximalist interpretation of the Second Amendment and has legislated and appointed judges accordingly, for at least the last two decades.

    It's not dishonest to quote Vance, selectively or not, to reinforce that point.
    As I recall, J D Vance's quote was part of a call for more armed security in schools - that is not doing nothing, albeit that it is a solution that you (using your extensive knowledge and experience on the topic no doubt) don't agree with. So the Tweet you've provided is absolutely a dishonest misrepresentation of his stance, and if you want to pump out such bilge, may I suggest you do so to some people with an actual vote, who are currently planning on voting for Trump. Do let us know how you get on.
    FFS where do they find these nutters, the solution is more guns, who would have imagined.
    That one's easy.

    Gun manufacturers imagined that the solution to the danger of guns is more guns.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
    AIUI there’s a number of Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits that are easily modifiable to turn them into what are legally mopeds and motorbikes, often capable of 50mph. The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.
    !
    I've modified a SurRon up to 28kW and 78mph. 🫡

    The demand for these services is essentially infinite. I could easily do 30-40/week if I were inclined which I'm not because it's boring work once you've done a few.
    If you weren't trolling, I'd say I hope you or yours gets hit and injured by someone driving one of those modified machines.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
    AIUI there’s a number of Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits that are easily modifiable to turn them into what are legally mopeds and motorbikes, often capable of 50mph. The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.
    !
    I've modified a SurRon up to 28kW and 78mph. 🫡

    The demand for these services is essentially infinite. I could easily do 30-40/week if I were inclined which I'm not because it's boring work once you've done a few.
    If you weren't trolling, I'd say I hope you or yours gets hit and injured by someone driving one of those modified machines.
    Aren't they anyway e-motorbikes rather than e-bikes?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,424

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/crlry1rd9w3o
    I would be interested in any explanations of this. Looks like a guy fell off an ebike, admittedly going fast, got 14 months in jail for 'dangerous driving' after pleading guilty. He hit a pedestrian but they were not hurt.

    He was in a pedestrianised area and they count as motor vehicles.
    AIUI there’s a number of Chinese e-bikes and conversion kits that are easily modifiable to turn them into what are legally mopeds and motorbikes, often capable of 50mph. The ‘modification’ is often something as silly as cutting a wire labeled ‘restrictor’ on the circuit board, because the manufacturers don’t care.
    !
    I've modified a SurRon up to 28kW and 78mph. 🫡

    The demand for these services is essentially infinite. I could easily do 30-40/week if I were inclined which I'm not because it's boring work once you've done a few.
    If you weren't trolling, I'd say I hope you or yours gets hit and injured by someone driving one of those modified machines.
    Well, as long as it meets all the criteria required as a motorcycle and the rider does not use it illegally, nothing wrong with that.

    *doubt*
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Nigelb said:

    This is crazy stuff.

    Not only did the Romanian air force not shoot down russian drones in their airspace, they escorted them with F-16s for over 100 km from Năvodari to the UA-RO international border so they could strike targets in Odesa region.
    https://x.com/mhmck/status/1832815563371848143

    I don't particularly blame Romania, as it's likely NATO consensus not to 'escalate'.
    The message it sends is that NATO doesn't even have the resolve to defend its own airspace.
    That does not augur well for any peace agreement after the war in Ukraine. Without credible deterrence, Russia will try again.

    NATO is just a front for a big jobs for the boys club where they can play at soldiers. They would be scared they creased their uniforms or that the Russians would throw a cabbage at them.
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