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It’s not Priti for Patel or Tom Tugendhat – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dear god, where has John Redwood been for the last four decades ?
    Or is he just senile now ?

    Selling a Council home to the people who live in it does not add to the shortage of homes. If the Council uses the money from the sale to build another it adds to the supply of homes.
    https://x.com/johnredwood/status/1831203784514535602

    He’s correct on both points.
    You are aware of the history of council house sales, and what happened to the proceeds ?

    Redwood was a Tory MP from 1987. It’s a bit bloody late for him to be coming to this stunning conclusion.
    Yes but it remains true that council house sales didn’t cause a housing shortage.
    Perhaps. But council house sales caused a shortage of council houses.
    Yes, this is a better argument. Having the state pour money into the private rental market through housing benefit is disastrous.
    Right to buy would be fine if the state still built houses. Look back to 1950 and the only periods we build sufficient stock was through the state / lha model, private sector just isn’t doing it by itself. I’d rather see the taxpayer take the equity risk at the start of projects to get things off the ground, bank the equity gain when things get signed off and derisked, and move to the next one.

    No doubt this somehow makes me “authoritarian right”.
    Which is what most critics of the policy said at the time
    It wasn't so much the right to buy they objected to, but rather the confiscation of the bulk of the proceeds - coupled with a rule preventing local authorities using what capital they retained to build more houses.

    Thatcher really hated council houses. And local government.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,605
    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dear god, where has John Redwood been for the last four decades ?
    Or is he just senile now ?

    Selling a Council home to the people who live in it does not add to the shortage of homes. If the Council uses the money from the sale to build another it adds to the supply of homes.
    https://x.com/johnredwood/status/1831203784514535602

    He’s correct on both points.
    You are aware of the history of council house sales, and what happened to the proceeds ?

    Redwood was a Tory MP from 1987. It’s a bit bloody late for him to be coming to this stunning conclusion.
    Yes but it remains true that council house sales didn’t cause a housing shortage.
    Perhaps. But council house sales caused a shortage of council houses.
    Yes, this is a better argument. Having the state pour money into the private rental market through housing benefit is disastrous.
    Right to buy would be fine if the state still built houses. Look back to 1950 and the only periods we build sufficient stock was through the state / lha model, private sector just isn’t doing it by itself. I’d rather see the taxpayer take the equity risk at the start of projects to get things off the ground, bank the equity gain when things get signed off and derisked, and move to the next one.

    No doubt this somehow makes me “authoritarian right”.
    Which is what most critics of the policy said at the time
    It wasn't so much the right to buy they objected to, but rather the confiscation of the bulk of the proceeds - coupled with a rule preventing local authorities using what capital they retained to build more houses.

    Thatcher really hated council houses. And local government.

    All things being equal that would have been ok. What changed was mass immigration, which Thatcher couldn't reasonably be blamed for.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420
    Nunu3 said:



    Guardian news

    @guardiannews

    ·

    12h

    ‘I am evil I did this’: Lucy Letby’s so-called confessions were written on advice of counsellors

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/sep/03/i-am-evil-i-did-this-lucy-letbys-so-called-confessions-were-written-on-advice-of-counsellors

    Please stop quoting from alt-right extremist sites.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,505
    edited September 4

    rcs1000 said:

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.

    People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.

    Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.

    So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
    Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).

    We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
    Not really, the Tories weren't planning to massively jack up spending on pointless state largesse - and they did have a plan to get us back to black.
    Did they bollocks.
    They put off having any realistic fiscal plan to the other side of the election, exactly as Starmer did.
    Nonsense. More hysteria from you.

    There was a fiscal plan to have debt dropping as a %GDP by 2028-29 when the tax thresholds would be unfrozen as well.
    Always five years in the future, and always with policies that they knew they wouldn't implement, like increasing fuel duty. Deferred every budget.

    It was a complete work of fiction. You're clever enough to see that.
    It wasn't fiction. They were on course to deliver it.

    The reason it slipped previously- see the budget of 2018 or 2019, for example - was because of the black swan event of Covid.

    Then, we had the CoL crisis and inflationary spike with interest rates that destroyed the old plan, and a need for higher defence spending.

    I don't expect everyone to be happy about all that but they are good reasons why the government had a very difficult wicket.
    By "Covid", of course, you mean "lockdown". Another very un-Tory policy of the last Parliament.
    The UK government implemented ridiculously over the top restrictions, that made me very glad to be in Southern California.

    WITH THAT SAID: places with no restrictions in the US (like Arizona) didn't perform markedly better economically than places with lots of restrictions (like New York), because people locked themselves up whether the politicians mandated it or not.

    I'd also point out that the best (economically) performing place - by far - in Europe was Denmark, which had a pretty sophisticated set of measures.
    The grim paradox of the Johnson/Sunak government's approach was that, by wanting to keep things open, they kept creating situations where it became necessary to close everything right away.

    Parallels with urban driving. The British approach was to try to go at maximum speed, only to repeatedly have to slam on the brakes. Much less stressful (and no slower) to go slower but without the stop-starts.
    Our aim is to “squash the sombrero. Sadly many will die”.

    Then Boris himself got squashed and we ended up printing a trillion pounds in a lunatic social and biological experiment that in the round likely saved no useful years of life but harmed much.

    But I shouldn’t dwell on this because I know it triggers many.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,605

    Nunu3 said:



    Guardian news

    @guardiannews

    ·

    12h

    ‘I am evil I did this’: Lucy Letby’s so-called confessions were written on advice of counsellors

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/sep/03/i-am-evil-i-did-this-lucy-letbys-so-called-confessions-were-written-on-advice-of-counsellors

    Please stop quoting from alt-right extremist sites.
    That's how David Davis went down the rabbit hole. It started with Shami Chakrabarti and then he got dragged into the hard stuff in the Guardian.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,505
    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dear god, where has John Redwood been for the last four decades ?
    Or is he just senile now ?

    Selling a Council home to the people who live in it does not add to the shortage of homes. If the Council uses the money from the sale to build another it adds to the supply of homes.
    https://x.com/johnredwood/status/1831203784514535602

    He’s correct on both points.
    You are aware of the history of council house sales, and what happened to the proceeds ?

    Redwood was a Tory MP from 1987. It’s a bit bloody late for him to be coming to this stunning conclusion.
    Yes but it remains true that council house sales didn’t cause a housing shortage.
    Perhaps. But council house sales caused a shortage of council houses.
    Yes, this is a better argument. Having the state pour money into the private rental market through housing benefit is disastrous.
    Right to buy would be fine if the state still built houses. Look back to 1950 and the only periods we build sufficient stock was through the state / lha model, private sector just isn’t doing it by itself. I’d rather see the taxpayer take the equity risk at the start of projects to get things off the ground, bank the equity gain when things get signed off and derisked, and move to the next one.

    No doubt this somehow makes me “authoritarian right”.
    Which is what most critics of the policy said at the time
    It wasn't so much the right to buy they objected to, but rather the confiscation of the bulk of the proceeds - coupled with a rule preventing local authorities using what capital they retained to build more houses.

    Thatcher really hated council houses. And local government.

    No reason to disbelieve you, I wasn’t around. As a generally free market small c conservative, the uk residential housing market feels like an obvious market failure that needs an element of state intervention. The Osborne era demand subsidies were stupid. But then again so is Barty of this parish’s anti-nature free for all.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,965
    MaxPB said:

    One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.

    People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.

    I'm one of them.

    If I'd known what Labour was going to do with WFA I'd never have voted for them (not that it effects me personally)
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,279
    Badenoch claims Starmer's Israel arms embargo was not required by the legal advice:

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1831424678172270653
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,357
    edited September 4
    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.

    People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.

    I'm one of them.

    If I'd known what Labour was going to do with WFA I'd never have voted for them (not that it effects me personally)
    What's WFA? I've always been useless with acronyms.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,053
    Andy_JS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.

    People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.

    I'm one of them.

    If I'd known what Labour was going to do with WFA I'd never have voted for them (not that it effects me personally)
    What's WFA? I've always been useless with acronyms.
    Winter Fuel Allowance.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,965
    carnforth said:

    Badenoch claims Starmer's Israel arms embargo was not required by the legal advice:

    https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/1831424678172270653

    Go Kemi!!!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,279
    Andy_JS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.

    People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.

    I'm one of them.

    If I'd known what Labour was going to do with WFA I'd never have voted for them (not that it effects me personally)
    What's WFA? I've always been useless with acronyms.
    Work From Aome.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,053
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.

    People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.

    I'm one of them.

    If I'd known what Labour was going to do with WFA I'd never have voted for them (not that it effects me personally)
    What's WFA? I've always been useless with acronyms.
    Work From Aome.
    No that's WFH - Winter Fuel Hallowance
  • JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Why never Jenrick?
    Borderline corruption over the Richard Desmond Westferry planning application; breaching COVID rules, that mural, and open public support for Trump (I’m not sure which is worse: his actually endorses MAGA or cynically that will heighten his appeal to the membership).

    Labour and LDs would have a field day…
    Jenrick is the best positioned to be able to deliver poll leads by suppressing the Reform vote and then pivoting to the centre for the next election. The others all risk oblivion for the party.
    The Tories lost over 60 seats to the LibDems….a sharp rightwards shift and then an opportunistic ‘pivot’ to the centre (and just how would he do that??) ain’t going to rebuild the shattered Blue Wall.

    However, my principal objection relates to ethics and propriety.

    But I think he will win.
    I agree with you on both counts. You are spot on. Still at least we should get one decent candidate to vote for this time, which will be one more than usual.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 269
    Nigelb said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Trying to work out if I actually care about this

    I guess I do. A bit

    They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln

    I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.

    He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.

    I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
    I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
    Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
    Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals.
    The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.

    As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.

    What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
    The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
    But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
    Curious maths and vote splitting got Labour where they are on a tiny % of the vote; similar forces could turn it the other way. FWIW I think next time will possibly depend on whether the nation veers in one of two ways, both possible:

    To shore up the centre left mainstream, with Labour and LD being in fact unacknowledged allies (possible because English seats split up handily mostly either Con v Lab or Con v LD and not LD v Lab).

    Or to look to a some form of Toryreform party (currently of course splitting votes) under the name Conservative, offering a really different, though thought out and costed (ie not Truss) alternative.

    I want neither of these, but I'm a One Nation Tory.

    It's a bit early to speculate, but I think it is certain the next election will be a cracker psephologically. It might even offer real alternatives policywise too.
    A One Nation Tory who voted, um, Labour.
    Yes. My guess is there were about 1-2 million of us. Maybe more. I have voted Tory for nearly 50 years. The Tory vote went from 14 m (2019) to just under 7 m (2024). And we were right.
    No, you weren't. You made a fucking stupid decision and enabled a socialist.

    I will never let you forget it.
    Thanks. Lear puts it better:

    I will have such revenges on you both,
    That all the world shall—I will do such things,—
    What they are, yet I know not: but they shall be
    The terrors of the earth.
    I don't mind floating voters deciding to vote Labour. I can understand centrists deciding differently.

    But what really grates my goat is people who have the temerity to claim to be loyal lifelong Tories who, when the chips are down, actually voter Labour without a flicker.
    No one owes a political party loyalty.
    Politicians certainly don't display any.
    Why would people who claim to value economic competence have voted for the last Conservative govt?
    Highest tax take, failing public services and low productivity/growth. Austerity, fraud and a month and a half of Mark Littlewood's most vivid economic wet dream.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,357
    Nunu3 said:



    Guardian news

    @guardiannews

    ·

    12h

    ‘I am evil I did this’: Lucy Letby’s so-called confessions were written on advice of counsellors

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/sep/03/i-am-evil-i-did-this-lucy-letbys-so-called-confessions-were-written-on-advice-of-counsellors

    I posted this yesterday, probably too late for people to notice.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420

    Nunu3 said:



    Guardian news

    @guardiannews

    ·

    12h

    ‘I am evil I did this’: Lucy Letby’s so-called confessions were written on advice of counsellors

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/sep/03/i-am-evil-i-did-this-lucy-letbys-so-called-confessions-were-written-on-advice-of-counsellors

    Please stop quoting from alt-right extremist sites.
    That's how David Davis went down the rabbit hole. It started with Shami Chakrabarti and then he got dragged into the hard stuff in the Guardian.
    Yesterday a story on Letby, in the New Yorker was apparently American Fascists undermining British Justice.

    Now the Guardian.

    What next - hardcore MAGA in the Times Educational Supplement?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 269

    Nigelb said:

    Dear god, where has John Redwood been for the last four decades ?
    Or is he just senile now ?

    Selling a Council home to the people who live in it does not add to the shortage of homes. If the Council uses the money from the sale to build another it adds to the supply of homes.
    https://x.com/johnredwood/status/1831203784514535602

    He’s correct on both points.
    The govt he served in prevented councils from using council house sale receipts to build new council houses.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,634
    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    So...not a Tory, but to try and get inside why. The blandness is probably part of the appeal.

    1.) He's something of a blank slate or shifty within his right-wing 'lane' to many. He's effectively running against Badenoch, whose love of a scrap is probably why she was/is a frontrunner - but also why some may want her to lose and thus may vote Jenrick believing he'll be less abrasive/destructive and is the only one who can beat her with members.

    Or alternatively, is someone moderates see as an acceptable person a moderate candidate could either beat or wouldn't mind losing to as much. Thus worth putting in the final two with Cleverly ahead of Badenoch.

    2.) He's run an objectively professional campaign - it's clearly been well planned and the electorate is currently 120 people. If he's worked the tea rooms and phones better than his rivals, it may not matter that he's a non-entity to the public at this stage.

    3.) Parties are notoriously bad at picking leaders after initial devastating defeats. Only Hague was a decent choice and even then, skipped Ken Clarke as the one Tory who could really speak to non-Tories post-97. Then went for IDS.

    Jenrick ticks the basic right-wing boxes while offering you quiet comfortzone Micawberism. A bit like Ed Miliband did for Labour after 2010 - hoping in five years the public would hate the coalition so much a bland left-leaning leader would appeal.

    No need to fundamentally change or ask yourself difficult questions about why the electorate has turned against you. But not a firebrand who'll double down and be a real gamble on your conviction the electorate will have completely changed their minds by 2029.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,357
    edited September 5
    Dan Hodges appears to have turned against Starmer.

    "DAN HODGES: This week we had the final proof - you can't trust a single word Keir Starmer says"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13812159/DAN-HODGES-week-final-proof-trust-single-word-Keir-Starmer-says.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,572
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
    As for the voters...

    A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
    Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.

    Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
    I can usually see why some politicians simply irritate the voters. Ed Miliband. Young William
    Hague. Gove

    But I don’t see why Patel. Maybe Racism? Misogyny? Snobbery?

    I suspect a complex mix of all three are at work, with varying blends in individuals
    Because she's shit, and has no self-awareness?
    I don’t see that either. I don’t see a politician that excelled in the job but she wasn’t “shit”. She had a tough gig

    And she is self aware. Her spontaneous speech on growing up as a young Asian woman was one of the best off the cuff commons speeches I can remember. Powerful and eloquent
    You really dont understand your country

    No-one with an Essex accent will ever be elected PM
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,572
    Nigelb said:
    Yep, all over the US media today.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 401
    edited September 5
    Edit
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,357
    I'd recommend this video.

    "Do We Need to Censor Hate Speech? - Imran Ahmed
    Triggernometry"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llB-hINZ7gk
  • Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    Harris proposes lower capital gains tax increase than Biden

    https://thehill.com/business/4862125-harris-proposes-lower-capital-gains-tax/
    … Harris said during a campaign speech in New Hampshire said she wants to increase the capital gains tax to 28 percent for those with $1 million or more in income, up from its current effective level of 23.6 percent.
    Harris’s proposal is well shy of the 44.6 percent rate proposed in a budget update from the Biden administration in July. It is also lower than the proposed increase to 39.6 percent included in the president’s most recent budget.
    “If you earn a million dollars a year or more, the tax rate on your long-term capital gains will be 28 percent under my plan, because we know when the government encourages investment, it leads to broad based economic growth,” Harris said in New Hampshire...

    Not looking too good for Trump....

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/04/trump-kamala-election
    And yet the betting has shifted (slightly) back to Trump.
    Trump 1.98
    Kamala 2.12

    Republican 1.95
    Demicrats 2.06
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    Happy birthday Keanu.
    https://x.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1830996676888199553

    A surprisingly decent bloke.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    It's time for Leon to stags an intervention.

    Trump repeatedly forgets who he is running against: “I can’t imagine New Hampshire voting for him... Anybody in New Hampshire who votes for Biden...”
    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1831504566816244114
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    And their profit margins are rising as Tesla's fall.

    BYD’s auto business is going to surpass Tesla in revenue this year. It’s on pace to sell ~4M cars which would put revenue in the ~$90B range.

    Consensus estimates are for Tesla to end up in the ~$84B range.

    But it’s an even bigger contrast when we look at gross profits.

    https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1831327694057021482
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,228
    Nigelb said:

    And their profit margins are rising as Tesla's fall.

    BYD’s auto business is going to surpass Tesla in revenue this year. It’s on pace to sell ~4M cars which would put revenue in the ~$90B range.

    Consensus estimates are for Tesla to end up in the ~$84B range.

    But it’s an even bigger contrast when we look at gross profits.

    https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1831327694057021482

    That's slightly misleading: Tesla's gross profits were massively flattered by selling battery vehicle credits to legacy automakers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    edited September 5
    Nigelb said:

    And their profit margins are rising as Tesla's fall.

    BYD’s auto business is going to surpass Tesla in revenue this year. It’s on pace to sell ~4M cars which would put revenue in the ~$90B range.

    Consensus estimates are for Tesla to end up in the ~$84B range.

    But it’s an even bigger contrast when we look at gross profits.

    https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1831327694057021482

    Western governments are going to have to quickly decide whether or not the whole car industry is to be shipped wholesale to China, just as so much other manufacturing has gone that way in recent decades.

    The new Chinese cars, exports of which are up 50% YoY, are pretty much good enough for the vast majority of consumers who aren’t shopping specifically for a premium brand. They are close in quality to the Korean brands, but considerably cheaper, and their electric offerings are cheaper still thanks to subsidised battery manufacture.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    And their profit margins are rising as Tesla's fall.

    BYD’s auto business is going to surpass Tesla in revenue this year. It’s on pace to sell ~4M cars which would put revenue in the ~$90B range.

    Consensus estimates are for Tesla to end up in the ~$84B range.

    But it’s an even bigger contrast when we look at gross profits.

    https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1831327694057021482

    Western governments are going to have to quickly decide whether or not the whole car industry is to be shipped wholesale to China, just as so much other manufacturing has gone that way in recent decades.

    The new Chinese cars, exports of which are up 50% YoY, are pretty much good enough for the vast majority of consumers who aren’t shopping specifically for a premium brand. They are pretty much as good as the Korean brands, but considerably cheaper, and their electric offerings are cheaper still thanks to subsidised battery manufacture.
    Battery manufacturing is one of the areas where their profit margins are increasing. The time of it relying on subsidies is arguably over.

    And it's not much good complaining about the subsidies; they just did it bigger, better and earlier than the west.
    They went all in on the EV transition; we spent the last decade ir so arguing about whether it was feasible.
    And the early western pioneer - Tesla - seems to have lost its way. Possibly because there was little or no western competition to keep it sharp.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    And their profit margins are rising as Tesla's fall.

    BYD’s auto business is going to surpass Tesla in revenue this year. It’s on pace to sell ~4M cars which would put revenue in the ~$90B range.

    Consensus estimates are for Tesla to end up in the ~$84B range.

    But it’s an even bigger contrast when we look at gross profits.

    https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1831327694057021482

    Western governments are going to have to quickly decide whether or not the whole car industry is to be shipped wholesale to China, just as so much other manufacturing has gone that way in recent decades.

    The new Chinese cars, exports of which are up 50% YoY, are pretty much good enough for the vast majority of consumers who aren’t shopping specifically for a premium brand. They are pretty much as good as the Korean brands, but considerably cheaper, and their electric offerings are cheaper still thanks to subsidised battery manufacture.
    Battery manufacturing is one of the areas where their profit margins are increasing. The time of it relying on subsidies is arguably over.

    And it's not much good complaining about the subsidies; they just did it bigger, better and earlier than the west.
    They went all in on the EV transition; we spent the last decade ir so arguing about whether it was feasible.
    And the early western pioneer - Tesla - seems to have lost its way. Possibly because there was little or no western competition to keep it sharp.
    Western governments tried to force EVs on unwilling manufacturers with legislation, and the end result is that they’re going to see the majority of their own motor industry end up in China unless they change course.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    edited September 5
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    And their profit margins are rising as Tesla's fall.

    BYD’s auto business is going to surpass Tesla in revenue this year. It’s on pace to sell ~4M cars which would put revenue in the ~$90B range.

    Consensus estimates are for Tesla to end up in the ~$84B range.

    But it’s an even bigger contrast when we look at gross profits.

    https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1831327694057021482

    That's slightly misleading: Tesla's gross profits were massively flattered by selling battery vehicle credits to legacy automakers.
    Well, yes.
    That doesn't make things look better fir them, though.

    But we're belatedly realising that using huge subsidies - as China did - to kickstart the transition to a new version of global industries the size of the car market might pay off big time.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,978

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    Everybody loves a (Cambridge educated) lawyer.

    I think that he’s gone from One Nation to radicalised Brexiteer with no intervening period and has the zeal of a convert is what is winning it for him.
    So Robert Jenrick is a UKer version of JD Vance?
    He’s more the Tory Richard Burgon.
    IDS, on a good day.

    Richard Cromwell on a bad day.If Generic is the best the Tories can do, I can't help thinking "is there no beginning to their talents?"
  • A decent summary of how to read the polling in the US Presidential race:

    https://www.brookings.edu/articles/is-kamala-harris-leading-donald-trump-in-the-presidential-race/
  • Keir Starmer slips up and calls Rishi Sunak prime minister five times at PMQs.
    https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1831309657266135143

    Sir Keith's losing it...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627

    Foxy said:

    Of course Japan is in the West.

    If you start at Saipan for example.

    We don't see it as Western because of our Eurocentric maps.

    An illiterate comment. If we were “Eurocentric” then Europe would be the centre, not the West, in the same manner as China sees itself as the centre.
    It's literally not possible for someone to write an illiterate comment, just saying.
    Flgjaghgrhhhagjkadgvk;vjk
    Writing: "It's literally not possible for someone to write an illiterate comment, just saying."


    Not writing: "Flgjaghgrhhhagjkadgvk;vjk"
    @Benpointer "It's literally not possible for someone to write an illiterate comment, just saying."

    @StillWaters AN ILLITERATE COMMENT

    See I wrote it. In capitals as well. Do I get a prize?
    No, because if it was an capitals you wrote AN ILLITERATE COMMENT not an illiterate comment.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,731
    AI doing something useful.

    BBC News - AI's solution to the 'cocktail party problem' used in court
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yk5mdj9gxo
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    There’s now three bridges there, so the next one they build will be the fourth bridge.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    edited September 5
    Sandpit said:

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    There’s now three bridges there, so the next one they build will be the fourth bridge.
    Your impressive tartan plaid, sir.

    Edit - fuck autocorrect this morning, it’s as useless as Dominic Cummings.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    Sandpit said:

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    There’s now three bridges there, so the next one they build will be the fourth bridge.
    Sixth; I count the Kincardine bridges as Forth Bridges ... ;)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    edited September 5

    Sandpit said:

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    There’s now three bridges there, so the next one they build will be the fourth bridge.
    Sixth; I count the Kincardine bridges as Forth Bridges ... ;)
    Of course not. Not only are they ten miles down the road, insubstantial bridges over a much smaller river, but more importantly if you include them the homonym joke doesn’t work ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627

    Sandpit said:

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    There’s now three bridges there, so the next one they build will be the fourth bridge.
    Sixth; I count the Kincardine bridges as Forth Bridges ... ;)
    A Stirling effort, but I’m still giving the prize to Sandpit.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,904
    edited September 5
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    And their profit margins are rising as Tesla's fall.

    BYD’s auto business is going to surpass Tesla in revenue this year. It’s on pace to sell ~4M cars which would put revenue in the ~$90B range.

    Consensus estimates are for Tesla to end up in the ~$84B range.

    But it’s an even bigger contrast when we look at gross profits.

    https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1831327694057021482

    Western governments are going to have to quickly decide whether or not the whole car industry is to be shipped wholesale to China, just as so much other manufacturing has gone that way in recent decades.

    The new Chinese cars, exports of which are up 50% YoY, are pretty much good enough for the vast majority of consumers who aren’t shopping specifically for a premium brand. They are pretty much as good as the Korean brands, but considerably cheaper, and their electric offerings are cheaper still thanks to subsidised battery manufacture.
    Battery manufacturing is one of the areas where their profit margins are increasing. The time of it relying on subsidies is arguably over.

    And it's not much good complaining about the subsidies; they just did it bigger, better and earlier than the west.
    They went all in on the EV transition; we spent the last decade ir so arguing about whether it was feasible.
    And the early western pioneer - Tesla - seems to have lost its way. Possibly because there was little or no western competition to keep it sharp.
    Western governments tried to force EVs on unwilling manufacturers with legislation, and the end result is that they’re going to see the majority of their own motor industry end up in China unless they change course.
    That's on the manufacturers; governments are forever bringing new regulations to cars, whether that on safety, air pollution or carbon emissions, and generally manufacturers do a great job at responding to them. The writing was on the wall for decades on EVs, but instead of innovating they thought it cheaper to retain the status quo.

    It's funny how my university course on climate change was deeply concerned about the rise of China and India, and therefore an increase in carbon emissions. That's happened, to be fair, but China has also provided the solution with massive production of solar, wind and EVs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,731
    A quite extraordinary crime on trial in France. The husband is bad enough but recruiting 72 men online to rape his wife is jaw dropping. There are a lot of would be rapists out there:

    https://x.com/France24_en/status/1830652076721926327?t=aCLN71gAV9oz3Df_dFcBmg&s=19

    Caught because he was taking upskirt images in a shop too.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    Foxy said:

    A quite extraordinary crime on trial in France. The husband is bad enough but recruiting 72 men online to rape his wife is jaw dropping. There are a lot of would be rapists out there:

    https://x.com/France24_en/status/1830652076721926327?t=aCLN71gAV9oz3Df_dFcBmg&s=19

    Caught because he was taking upskirt images in a shop too.

    One of the most horrific trials in years, possibly since that of Josef Fritzel in 2009.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,854
    maaarsh said:

    Barnesian said:

    maaarsh said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    Don't disagree, but the appeal of ex-post office minister, Ed-the-clown Davey is a complete mystery to me also.
    There is no appeal - he was running against a hated Tory party and a Labour leader who couldn't top 33% in that context. Despite successfully running a distraction campaign to make people forget his role in the post office scandal the Lib Dem result was really pretty rock bottom given the context.
    Yes - only 72 MPs.
    We're talking about appeal, not how it is converted in to MPs.

    Despite dreadful alternatives, he got considerably fewer people to vote Lib Dem than the great Jo Swinson managed.
    The strategy was quite different. So, obviously
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,544
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    There’s now three bridges there, so the next one they build will be the fourth bridge.
    Sixth; I count the Kincardine bridges as Forth Bridges ... ;)
    Of course not. Not only are they ten miles down the road, insubstantial bridges over a much smaller river, but more importantly if you include them the homonym joke doesn’t work ;)
    The Clackmannanshire Bridge is 1.2km long and the Kincardine Bridge 800m so I'm not sure I'd call them insubstantial. There is really only one Forth Bridge though, the thing of sublime beauty and genius completed in 1890 and still to my mind one of our greatest achievements.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    And their profit margins are rising as Tesla's fall.

    BYD’s auto business is going to surpass Tesla in revenue this year. It’s on pace to sell ~4M cars which would put revenue in the ~$90B range.

    Consensus estimates are for Tesla to end up in the ~$84B range.

    But it’s an even bigger contrast when we look at gross profits.

    https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1831327694057021482

    Western governments are going to have to quickly decide whether or not the whole car industry is to be shipped wholesale to China, just as so much other manufacturing has gone that way in recent decades.

    The new Chinese cars, exports of which are up 50% YoY, are pretty much good enough for the vast majority of consumers who aren’t shopping specifically for a premium brand. They are pretty much as good as the Korean brands, but considerably cheaper, and their electric offerings are cheaper still thanks to subsidised battery manufacture.
    Battery manufacturing is one of the areas where their profit margins are increasing. The time of it relying on subsidies is arguably over.

    And it's not much good complaining about the subsidies; they just did it bigger, better and earlier than the west.
    They went all in on the EV transition; we spent the last decade ir so arguing about whether it was feasible.
    And the early western pioneer - Tesla - seems to have lost its way. Possibly because there was little or no western competition to keep it sharp.
    Western governments tried to force EVs on unwilling manufacturers with legislation, and the end result is that they’re going to see the majority of their own motor industry end up in China unless they change course.
    What course change? Stop incentivising BEV and try to get the manufacturers to go back to ICE?

    Outside niche users, ICE cars are dead in the medium term. BMW has a good strategy; make their BEVs in China then sell them globally at the higher price the BMW brand equity allows.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    There’s now three bridges there, so the next one they build will be the fourth bridge.
    Sixth; I count the Kincardine bridges as Forth Bridges ... ;)
    Of course not. Not only are they ten miles down the road, insubstantial bridges over a much smaller river, but more importantly if you include them the homonym joke doesn’t work ;)
    The Clackmannanshire Bridge is 1.2km long and the Kincardine Bridge 800m so I'm not sure I'd call them insubstantial. There is really only one Forth Bridge though, the thing of sublime beauty and genius completed in 1890 and still to my mind one of our greatest achievements.
    They're on the tidal river, and are substantial achievements in their own right. More importantly, the original Kincardine Bridge was where I crossed the Forth on my coastal walk, so it definitely counts. ;)

    (I'd walked across the Forth Bridge a couple of times before; I had a few days in hand on my schedule, and it looked like an enjoyable and interesting extension to the walk. It was.)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,731
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    A quite extraordinary crime on trial in France. The husband is bad enough but recruiting 72 men online to rape his wife is jaw dropping. There are a lot of would be rapists out there:

    https://x.com/France24_en/status/1830652076721926327?t=aCLN71gAV9oz3Df_dFcBmg&s=19

    Caught because he was taking upskirt images in a shop too.

    One of the most horrific trials in years, possibly since that of Josef Fritzel in 2009.
    I think this more horrific because of not being a single individual, showing how many men are willing to rape when given the chance.

    Very brave of the victim to want a public trial so as to expose what went on.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,904
    edited September 5

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    There’s now three bridges there, so the next one they build will be the fourth bridge.
    Sixth; I count the Kincardine bridges as Forth Bridges ... ;)
    Of course not. Not only are they ten miles down the road, insubstantial bridges over a much smaller river, but more importantly if you include them the homonym joke doesn’t work ;)
    The Clackmannanshire Bridge is 1.2km long and the Kincardine Bridge 800m so I'm not sure I'd call them insubstantial. There is really only one Forth Bridge though, the thing of sublime beauty and genius completed in 1890 and still to my mind one of our greatest achievements.
    For anyone looking for a short mixed surface cycle ride (lots of fun gravel), NCN 76 from Edinburgh to Queensferry is stunning and you incredible views of the bridge.

    Couple of pints, fish and chips and the train back if you're feeling lazy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    And their profit margins are rising as Tesla's fall.

    BYD’s auto business is going to surpass Tesla in revenue this year. It’s on pace to sell ~4M cars which would put revenue in the ~$90B range.

    Consensus estimates are for Tesla to end up in the ~$84B range.

    But it’s an even bigger contrast when we look at gross profits.

    https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1831327694057021482

    Western governments are going to have to quickly decide whether or not the whole car industry is to be shipped wholesale to China, just as so much other manufacturing has gone that way in recent decades.

    The new Chinese cars, exports of which are up 50% YoY, are pretty much good enough for the vast majority of consumers who aren’t shopping specifically for a premium brand. They are pretty much as good as the Korean brands, but considerably cheaper, and their electric offerings are cheaper still thanks to subsidised battery manufacture.
    Battery manufacturing is one of the areas where their profit margins are increasing. The time of it relying on subsidies is arguably over.

    And it's not much good complaining about the subsidies; they just did it bigger, better and earlier than the west.
    They went all in on the EV transition; we spent the last decade ir so arguing about whether it was feasible.
    And the early western pioneer - Tesla - seems to have lost its way. Possibly because there was little or no western competition to keep it sharp.
    Western governments tried to force EVs on unwilling manufacturers with legislation, and the end result is that they’re going to see the majority of their own motor industry end up in China unless they change course.
    In the context of climate change that was quite reasonable.
    Manufacturers were fools hoping to carry on making profits on ICEs, and transition 'when the technology was ready'. It now means many have just been left unable to compete.

    Another technology the west invented, and that China has picked up and stolen the market for.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    A quite extraordinary crime on trial in France. The husband is bad enough but recruiting 72 men online to rape his wife is jaw dropping. There are a lot of would be rapists out there:

    https://x.com/France24_en/status/1830652076721926327?t=aCLN71gAV9oz3Df_dFcBmg&s=19

    Caught because he was taking upskirt images in a shop too.

    One of the most horrific trials in years, possibly since that of Josef Fritzel in 2009.
    I think this more horrific because of not being a single individual, showing how many men are willing to rape when given the chance.

    Very brave of the victim to want a public trial so as to expose what went on.
    The age of the victim and husband are also remarkable, as are the few men who entered the house and refused to take part, leaving when they saw her state.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    There’s now three bridges there, so the next one they build will be the fourth bridge.
    Sixth; I count the Kincardine bridges as Forth Bridges ... ;)
    Of course not. Not only are they ten miles down the road, insubstantial bridges over a much smaller river, but more importantly if you include them the homonym joke doesn’t work ;)
    The Clackmannanshire Bridge is 1.2km long and the Kincardine Bridge 800m so I'm not sure I'd call them insubstantial. There is really only one Forth Bridge though, the thing of sublime beauty and genius completed in 1890 and still to my mind one of our greatest achievements.
    Yes of course, and the original Kincardine Bridge is also a thing of beauty, although my memory of crossing that one was usually sitting in a large queue on a windy day, when the bigger road bridge down the road was closed!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,139

    Keir Starmer slips up and calls Rishi Sunak prime minister five times at PMQs.
    https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1831309657266135143

    Sir Keith's losing it...

    "I wish you still were..." etc.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    There’s now three bridges there, so the next one they build will be the fourth bridge.
    Sixth; I count the Kincardine bridges as Forth Bridges ... ;)
    A Stirling effort, but I’m still giving the prize to Sandpit.
    Well Alloa there, thank you very much.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    In other news, the revelation that some US right-wing 'journalists' such as Tim Pool have been influenced by Russian assets should surprise no-one.

    https://www.wired.com/story/right-wing-influencer-network-tenet-media-allegedly-spread-russian-disinformation/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,731

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    A quite extraordinary crime on trial in France. The husband is bad enough but recruiting 72 men online to rape his wife is jaw dropping. There are a lot of would be rapists out there:

    https://x.com/France24_en/status/1830652076721926327?t=aCLN71gAV9oz3Df_dFcBmg&s=19

    Caught because he was taking upskirt images in a shop too.

    One of the most horrific trials in years, possibly since that of Josef Fritzel in 2009.
    I think this more horrific because of not being a single individual, showing how many men are willing to rape when given the chance.

    Very brave of the victim to want a public trial so as to expose what went on.
    The age of the victim and husband are also remarkable, as are the few men who entered the house and refused to take part, leaving when they saw her state.
    Though he is also suspected of crimes when younger.

    None of the 3 who refused reported it to the police. The crimes came to light because of police investigation of an upskirting offence.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,962
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    And their profit margins are rising as Tesla's fall.

    BYD’s auto business is going to surpass Tesla in revenue this year. It’s on pace to sell ~4M cars which would put revenue in the ~$90B range.

    Consensus estimates are for Tesla to end up in the ~$84B range.

    But it’s an even bigger contrast when we look at gross profits.

    https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1831327694057021482

    Western governments are going to have to quickly decide whether or not the whole car industry is to be shipped wholesale to China, just as so much other manufacturing has gone that way in recent decades.

    The new Chinese cars, exports of which are up 50% YoY, are pretty much good enough for the vast majority of consumers who aren’t shopping specifically for a premium brand. They are pretty much as good as the Korean brands, but considerably cheaper, and their electric offerings are cheaper still thanks to subsidised battery manufacture.
    Battery manufacturing is one of the areas where their profit margins are increasing. The time of it relying on subsidies is arguably over.

    And it's not much good complaining about the subsidies; they just did it bigger, better and earlier than the west.
    They went all in on the EV transition; we spent the last decade ir so arguing about whether it was feasible.
    And the early western pioneer - Tesla - seems to have lost its way. Possibly because there was little or no western competition to keep it sharp.
    Western governments tried to force EVs on unwilling manufacturers with legislation, and the end result is that they’re going to see the majority of their own motor industry end up in China unless they change course.
    What course change? Stop incentivising BEV and try to get the manufacturers to go back to ICE?

    Outside niche users, ICE cars are dead in the medium term. BMW has a good strategy; make their BEVs in China then sell them globally at the higher price the BMW brand equity allows.
    If you can mainly charge your car at home, an EV makes complete sense IMO. If that's most people there's no future for ICE, as you say.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,139
    Not as many as a few years ago, and GenZ seem to have fewer of the them, but still lots of young men with stupid beards on them around.

    I'd say the peak is for men aged 25 to 35
  • NEW THREAD

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757

    In other news, the revelation that some US right-wing 'journalists' such as Tim Pool have been influenced by Russian assets should surprise no-one.

    https://www.wired.com/story/right-wing-influencer-network-tenet-media-allegedly-spread-russian-disinformation/

    By 'influenced', you actually mean paid by.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/sep/05/tim-pool-benny-johnson-influencers-russia-disinformation

    But apparently being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars by Russia makes them 'victims'. At least that's how they claim to see it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,455
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    There’s now three bridges there, so the next one they build will be the fourth bridge.
    Sixth; I count the Kincardine bridges as Forth Bridges ... ;)
    Of course not. Not only are they ten miles down the road, insubstantial bridges over a much smaller river, but more importantly if you include them the homonym joke doesn’t work ;)
    And, of course, Stirling Bridge (Old) and its companions. For many, many centuries of huge strategic significance. https://www.historicenvironment.scot/visit-a-place/places/stirling-old-bridge/

    While Bouch's train ferry could be called a mobile bridge ... ro-ro, tidal adjustable ramps, all that *before* 1850 ...

    https://www.railscot.co.uk/locations/G/Granton_Pier/

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,139

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    Yes, suspension bridges are dynamic and thus don't really have an indeterminate design life, although officially everything does.

    It depends how much they want to spend on constantly maintaining and renewing it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314

    In other news, the revelation that some US right-wing 'journalists' such as Tim Pool have been influenced by Russian assets should surprise no-one.

    https://www.wired.com/story/right-wing-influencer-network-tenet-media-allegedly-spread-russian-disinformation/

    Tim Pool was a victim of this one, he licenced a existing show he produced to Tenet Media who had no influence over the content. Managers at Tenet weren’t aware that one of their investors was a Russian front.

    https://x.com/timcast/status/1831473189173731589

    There was a story about a Chinese social media operation the other day as well, trying to amplify anything remotely controversial on social media platforms but mainly TikTok.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-voters-targeted-by-chinese-influence-online-researchers-say-2024-09-03/

    The run up to the US election is going to be a total sh!t-show of fake news and foreign influence, even before we get to all the AI stuff.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462

    A day late with this 'news', but the Forth Road Bridge opened 60 years ago yesterday.

    A magnificent achievement; but I doubt it'll last many more decades.

    Yes, suspension bridges are dynamic and thus don't really have an indeterminate design life, although officially everything does.

    It depends how much they want to spend on constantly maintaining and renewing it.
    The problem is the cables are, to put it politely, f*cked. Replacing the cables is apparently very tricky, and so the question really becomes how long the cables can last before enough strands break to make it unsafe, even for the reduced loads it now carries.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,042
    DavidL said:

    kamski said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    RealClearPolitics still has Trump ahead in Pennsylvania by 0.2%.

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

    They seem to ignore polls that indicate otherwise and, of course, they use Rasmussen. 538 has Harris 1.6% ahead in Pennsylvania: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/. On their average she has had a small but consistent lead in the State for

    I still worry that Harris might regret not choosing Shapiro. Pennsylvania is the keystone state for this election. If Harris wins it, she wins. If she loses it it is going to be incredibly close.
    She might win even without Pennsylvania if she wins Michigan and Wisconsin and Nebraska 02, which Walz will help her with and Nevada which even Hillary won and one of NC or Georgia which the black vote will help her with (and Kennedy Jr is staying on the ballot in NC unlike Pennsylvania). Obama of course won NC in 2008.

    If Trump won Arizona and Georgia and Pennsylvania as well as the states he won in 2020 though Harris wins by just 273 to 265 votes, the closest EC margin since 2000 when Bush beat Gore by 271 to 266

    https://www.270towin.com/
    Yes, I agree. There are routes to 270 for Harris without Pennsylvania although they are far from easy. It is very hard to see any realistic routes to 270 for Trump without Pennsylvania though.

    One of the challenges for Trump is states he thought were nailed down coming into play. North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada all looked pretty solid for him a month ago but are now in the toss up zone. Putting the kind of money he wants into Pennsylvania will become more difficult the more he has to play defence elsewhere.
    Assuming a close contest, Trump can win by picking up Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and one of Michigan or Wisconsin. How's that any less "realistic" than Harris losing Pennsylvania Georgia and Arizona but picking up North Carolina?
    Because neither Michigan nor Wisconsin are as close as Pennsylvania. If he wins either of those he will have won Penn too
    Right, and North Carolina is polling better for Trump than Georgia right now.

    Anyway, if you assume that current polling will be 100% reflected in the actual vote in terms of how close the states are, then you can just say whoever wins Pennsylvania wins full stop, so it would be meaningless to discuss how many other 'routes' candidates have.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    Sandpit said:

    In other news, the revelation that some US right-wing 'journalists' such as Tim Pool have been influenced by Russian assets should surprise no-one.

    https://www.wired.com/story/right-wing-influencer-network-tenet-media-allegedly-spread-russian-disinformation/

    Tim Pool was a victim of this one, he licenced a existing show he produced to Tenet Media who had no influence over the content. Managers at Tenet weren’t aware that one of their investors was a Russian front.

    https://x.com/timcast/status/1831473189173731589

    There was a story about a Chinese social media operation the other day as well, trying to amplify anything remotely controversial on social media platforms but mainly TikTok.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-voters-targeted-by-chinese-influence-online-researchers-say-2024-09-03/

    The run up to the US election is going to be a total sh!t-show of fake news and foreign influence, even before we get to all the AI stuff.
    So the Russia Hoax was on him ?
    Useful idiot, presumably.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,446

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    A quite extraordinary crime on trial in France. The husband is bad enough but recruiting 72 men online to rape his wife is jaw dropping. There are a lot of would be rapists out there:

    https://x.com/France24_en/status/1830652076721926327?t=aCLN71gAV9oz3Df_dFcBmg&s=19

    Caught because he was taking upskirt images in a shop too.

    One of the most horrific trials in years, possibly since that of Josef Fritzel in 2009.
    I think this more horrific because of not being a single individual, showing how many men are willing to rape when given the chance.

    Very brave of the victim to want a public trial so as to expose what went on.
    The age of the victim and husband are also remarkable, as are the few men who entered the house and refused to take part, leaving when they saw her state.
    But they apparently didn't contact the police.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    Sandpit said:

    In other news, the revelation that some US right-wing 'journalists' such as Tim Pool have been influenced by Russian assets should surprise no-one.

    https://www.wired.com/story/right-wing-influencer-network-tenet-media-allegedly-spread-russian-disinformation/

    Tim Pool was a victim of this one, he licenced a existing show he produced to Tenet Media who had no influence over the content. Managers at Tenet weren’t aware that one of their investors was a Russian front.

    https://x.com/timcast/status/1831473189173731589

    (Snip)
    Yeah, but no.

    I cry b/s on that excuse. He knew; and the 'no influence' stuff is a laugh.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    A quite extraordinary crime on trial in France. The husband is bad enough but recruiting 72 men online to rape his wife is jaw dropping. There are a lot of would be rapists out there:

    https://x.com/France24_en/status/1830652076721926327?t=aCLN71gAV9oz3Df_dFcBmg&s=19

    Caught because he was taking upskirt images in a shop too.

    One of the most horrific trials in years, possibly since that of Josef Fritzel in 2009.
    I think this more horrific because of not being a single individual, showing how many men are willing to rape when given the chance.

    Very brave of the victim to want a public trial so as to expose what went on.
    The age of the victim and husband are also remarkable, as are the few men who entered the house and refused to take part, leaving when they saw her state.
    But they apparently didn't contact the police.
    Yes, and that's interesting in itself. Why? Because they were not sure something dodgy was going on? Because they did not want to get involved? Or because they have something else dodgy in their background that they did not want to get on the police's radar for?
  • Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    And their profit margins are rising as Tesla's fall.

    BYD’s auto business is going to surpass Tesla in revenue this year. It’s on pace to sell ~4M cars which would put revenue in the ~$90B range.

    Consensus estimates are for Tesla to end up in the ~$84B range.

    But it’s an even bigger contrast when we look at gross profits.

    https://x.com/GlennLuk/status/1831327694057021482

    Western governments are going to have to quickly decide whether or not the whole car industry is to be shipped wholesale to China, just as so much other manufacturing has gone that way in recent decades.

    The new Chinese cars, exports of which are up 50% YoY, are pretty much good enough for the vast majority of consumers who aren’t shopping specifically for a premium brand. They are pretty much as good as the Korean brands, but considerably cheaper, and their electric offerings are cheaper still thanks to subsidised battery manufacture.
    Battery manufacturing is one of the areas where their profit margins are increasing. The time of it relying on subsidies is arguably over.

    And it's not much good complaining about the subsidies; they just did it bigger, better and earlier than the west.
    They went all in on the EV transition; we spent the last decade ir so arguing about whether it was feasible.
    And the early western pioneer - Tesla - seems to have lost its way. Possibly because there was little or no western competition to keep it sharp.
    I run an EV / Tesla-ramping YouTube channel called "Just Get A Tesla". Which was based on my own rationale back in 2022 when having looked in detail at Polestar and Hyundai I kept coming back to "ah just get a Tesla".

    In 2024 there are so many more EVs and manufacturers than in 2024 - vast competition. Tesla is Apple - a well designed and thought through walled garden. Everyone else is Android - choose from budget end, mid range or even high end flagships, but all of them exist in the slightly chaotic world of open source and open access.

    A few manufacturers remain wedded to the Windows Phone of the EV world - hello Lexus! Please stop.

    The point is this. Its a huge and very competitive marketplace. Stellantis know what they are doing - very good EV versions of small cars and vans at sane prices. Big Tick. Then we get the high end Germans, who seem to have no clue what the market wants. VAG, Mercedes, BMW - a series of missteps where they seem to think that what people really want is their existing offer and not this EV thing. So they EVise their existing range to best resemble their premium large ranges and then wonder why people complain about the basics like ease of use and range.

    Germany, even now, is digging its heels in desperately trying to stop EVs. China went all in on EVs with spectacular success. If legacy automakers like VAG want to survive, they need a radical rethink. And I do mean survive - look at recent statements from their senior managers, this is an existential crisis for them. People would probably want to keep driving European brands rather than Chinese given the choice. So do a Stellantis and build them.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314

    Sandpit said:

    In other news, the revelation that some US right-wing 'journalists' such as Tim Pool have been influenced by Russian assets should surprise no-one.

    https://www.wired.com/story/right-wing-influencer-network-tenet-media-allegedly-spread-russian-disinformation/

    Tim Pool was a victim of this one, he licenced a existing show he produced to Tenet Media who had no influence over the content. Managers at Tenet weren’t aware that one of their investors was a Russian front.

    https://x.com/timcast/status/1831473189173731589

    (Snip)
    Yeah, but no.

    I cry b/s on that excuse. He knew; and the 'no influence' stuff is a laugh.
    To be fair to him, the DOJ indictment was clear that those producing content were not aware of the Russian investor, and the company produced a considerable amount of apparently fake documentation about their investors.

    Comment from two more creators involved:

    https://x.com/rubinreport/status/1831478093661245681

    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1831443521603301497

    The likes of Pool and Dave Rubin are not your hardcore MAGA types nor tradional Republicans, they’re both pretty centre-right ‘disaffected liberal’ types. I don’t follow Benny Johnson so don’t know his politics, but he’s clearly supporting Trump in this election from a quick look at his timeline.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,866
    Leon said:

    Also, basically zero crime here. Eastern Europe still has high trust low crime societies

    They have great authentic food and lovely towns with little crime and they are proud of their cultures, not scolded to be ashamed like the Brits, not bullied with endless guilt like the Germans

    It is time for Western Europe to learn from the east

    An interesting data set for crime and safety for cities and countries worldwide. It's worth a note that a lot of this is always perception and politics designed to impact that perception.

    https://www.numbeo.com/crime/

    Alice Springs is a blackspot:
    https://www.numbeo.com/crime/in/Alice-Springs-Australia
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,462
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    In other news, the revelation that some US right-wing 'journalists' such as Tim Pool have been influenced by Russian assets should surprise no-one.

    https://www.wired.com/story/right-wing-influencer-network-tenet-media-allegedly-spread-russian-disinformation/

    Tim Pool was a victim of this one, he licenced a existing show he produced to Tenet Media who had no influence over the content. Managers at Tenet weren’t aware that one of their investors was a Russian front.

    https://x.com/timcast/status/1831473189173731589

    (Snip)
    Yeah, but no.

    I cry b/s on that excuse. He knew; and the 'no influence' stuff is a laugh.
    To be fair to him, the DOJ indictment was clear that those producing content were not aware of the Russian investor, and the company produced a considerable amount of apparently fake documentation about their investors.

    Comment from two more creators involved:

    https://x.com/rubinreport/status/1831478093661245681

    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1831443521603301497

    The likes of Pool and Dave Rubin are not your hardcore MAGA types nor tradional Republicans, they’re both pretty centre-right ‘disaffected liberal’ types. I don’t follow Benny Johnson so don’t know his politics, but he’s clearly supporting Trump in this election from a quick look at his timeline.
    They're only centrist or centre-right if you're way off to the right yourself.

    As for their comments: as I say, it's b/s. They're not victims; they're foreign agents. At best you *might* be able to add 'unwitting' to that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,866
    Olympic athlete burnt to death in attack by former boyfriend (Uganda):

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3vx0kq2xr2o
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,866
    edited September 5
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    stodge said:

    MaxPB said:

    One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.

    People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.

    Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.

    So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
    Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).

    We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
    You don't like the answer but it involves cutting state employment by a substantial number and completely reworking the benefits system. There is no path to a balanced budget while 3m people sit in sickness benefits and 1/5 people are on the state payroll, the other 4 people simply don't pay enough tax to cover it all.
    Or going the other way and boosting tax to French levels. The UK has a relatively low tax burden compared to many other rich countries.

    (Not to say that it's a better solution. Just that it's not unusual to do it the other way round).
    And tie the country into a permanent low growth trap. It's a terrible idea.
    Aren't the UK and France scoring roughly the same on GDP growth? The only country doing really well is the US, with massive federal investment in infrastructure and climate mitigation.
    EU is an interesting dataset.

    For 2024 15 EU countries are forecast to be above 2% growth. They are all Eastern European, except for Malta, Ireland and Luxembourg. The next down 3 are Spain, Greece and Portugal.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,866
    edited September 5
    Andy_JS said:

    "Why did the Grenfell Inquiry take so long to tell us what we know already?
    Ross Clark

    Predictably enough, and not unreasonably, the 1700-page final report into the Grenfell disaster apportions the bulk of the blame with the companies who manufactured and sold the flammable cladding and insulation.

    What has emerged from this inquiry is astonishing: you hardly need a degree in engineering to work out that it is not a good idea to wrap a tower block in combustible material. That manufacturers seem to have ‘deliberately concealed’ the risk that their products posed is something which is almost inevitably going to be picked over further in the courts. Why it has taken seven years to produce this report – thereby holding up possible criminal cases – is itself a scandal. As ever with our drawn-out public inquiries many of the guilty parties will no longer be around to face the music, at least not in the roles they held."

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-did-the-grenfell-inquiry-take-so-long-to-tell-us-what-we-already-knew/

    A couple of points:

    1 - AIUI (am I wrong?) it was started by a household appliance. I don't see that it has addressed for safety of such - but I have not read all 1700 pages.

    2 - Quite a number of changes have already been made around regulation. A good piece on the Today programme 6:16am this morning. Link will expire quickly.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_fourfm
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 269
    Pagan2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
    As for the voters...

    A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
    Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.

    Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
    I can usually see why some politicians simply irritate the voters. Ed Miliband. Young William
    Hague. Gove

    But I don’t see why Patel. Maybe Racism? Misogyny? Snobbery?

    I suspect a complex mix of all three are at work, with varying blends in individuals
    Because she's shit, and has no self-awareness?
    She does however look better in latex than the rest
    Middle aged doughy men do not look good in latex, or indeed anything other than a good suit (see posts passim). Arguably Badenoch would look good but there would be balloon squeaking as she is more curvy than Patel.
    Something to be taken note of by the lycra clad I feel
    Because she's an unpleasant bully and was found to be so by an independent inquiry?
    Actually inside info, she can be pleasant to some people and vile to others, smarmy upwards, bullying downwards.
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