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It’s not Priti for Patel or Tom Tugendhat – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,650
edited September 2024 in General
It’s not Priti for Patel or Tom Tugendhat – politicalbetting.com

It’s not Priti for Patel. pic.twitter.com/LZtflHbo6b

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,577
    Thought the bottom two dropped out?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,573
    I was wondering why the % seemed to add to more than 100, then remembered we only have ~120 Con MPs.

    So, a few have sat this out, assuming the candidates vote?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,214
    There was a local by-election last night in Swale. Result was LD 316, Ref 200, Con 153, Lab 74. LD hold.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,187
    OldKingCole said:

    Thought the bottom two dropped out?

    No, just one. I thought the next ballot was on Friday but it's next Tuesday.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,573
    OldKingCole said:

    Thought the bottom two dropped out?

    Me too, must be a two stage thing so the Witham Warrior's votes are up for grabs in the next round?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    Selebian said:

    I was wondering why the % seemed to add to more than 100, then remembered we only have ~120 Con MPs.

    So, a few have sat this out, assuming the candidates vote?

    IIRC Sunak won’t be voting.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 785
    According to conservativehome public supporters of Priti were Alec Shelbrooke, Greg Smith, Saqib Bhatti, Andrew Snowden & Wendy Morton.

    Any indications of where they might go?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,720
    Very close ballot. Be interesting to see how the Stride / Tugendhat votes swap around on the next ballot - you'd have assumed a Stride squeeze but they start quite close.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 988
    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    edited September 2024
    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    Everybody loves a (Cambridge educated) lawyer.

    I think that he’s gone from One Nation to radicalised Brexiteer with no intervening period and has the zeal of a convert is what is winning it for him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,666
    I'm totally out of the loop. When is the next ballot?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    Guess Tory MP's must find Priti's simpering grin as annoying as the rest of us...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,577
    Andy_JS said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Thought the bottom two dropped out?

    No, just one. I thought the next ballot was on Friday but it's next Tuesday.
    Ah, my mistake, thanks. I must say that as I'm almost certainly never going to vote Tory my opinion is of little value, but I really don't like the look of Jenrick.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,845
    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    He’s not any of the others, and he’s probably the one who is the least high profile with the public. Gives him a bit more of a fresh slate angle (don’t get me wrong, he has baggage, but they all do).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    numbertwelve said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    He’s not any of the others, and he’s probably the one who is the least high profile with the public. Gives him a bit more of a fresh slate angle (don’t get me wrong, he has baggage, but they all do).
    A lower profile than Mel Stride and Tom Tugenwhatsit? Blimey.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,577
    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,845
    In summary,

    Good result for Jenrick, Stride, Cleverly.

    Disappointing for Kemi (frontrunners usually benefit from being able to continually demonstrate they are the frontrunner).

    Bad for TT.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    edited September 2024
    I don't see it as a disastrous result for Tugendhat at all.

    Priti and her supporters will be annoyed she was knocked out first rather than Stride as expected, so I doubt Stride gets any Patel votes. It is also not a good result for Kemi, who this morning was clear favourite but came behind Jenrick who topped the poll and was just 1 vote ahead of Cleverly for second. I would also expect more Priti transfers to go to Jenrick and Cleverly than Badenoch.

    Tugendhat would pick up almost all the Stride transfers if Stride goes out next
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,726
    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    He seems to be riding both the “we got it wrong, need to change” horse at the same time as the “we weren’t Conservative enough” one, which projects a combination of contrition and self-satisfaction that will appeal to those Tories still in denial, provided they don’t dwell on the essential contradictions.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Can't see all that many transfers to either Tugendhat or Stride from Patel myself. Would have thought they'd be more likely to head to Badenoch and Jenrick.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,726
    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Under the table, grumpy that my breakfast was more interesting than his.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,942
    GIN1138 said:

    Guess Tory MP's must find Priti's simpering grin as annoying as the rest of us...

    I think the letter 'g' complained that it had been dropped without any reason.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,577
    edited September 2024
    IanB2 said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Under the table, grumpy that my breakfast was more interesting than his.
    Ah yes, I see him now. If that is your good self!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,726
    Jonathan said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    He’s not any of the others, and he’s probably the one who is the least high profile with the public. Gives him a bit more of a fresh slate angle (don’t get me wrong, he has baggage, but they all do).
    A lower profile than Mel Stride and Tom Tugenwhatsit? Blimey.
    Both of them are surely doomed - how can they be a credible leader winning from fourth or fifth choice among their colleagues, with only high teens of MPs supporting each of them.
  • Jim_the_LurkerJim_the_Lurker Posts: 209
    I guess not so good numbers for Badenoch. Although given the rumours that she can start a fight in an empty room it is perhaps unsurprising that her colleagues aren’t marching in support. But, I still see them, for various poor reasons (including things like the ConHom polls), sending her to the members as one of the top two.

    So the fight is for the second spot. Based on these numbers Jenrick will probably be the most confident of making that birth. However, Cleverly will definitely think he can pick up a fair few of the Stride / Tugendhat backers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    RobD said:

    I'm totally out of the loop. When is the next ballot?

    Next Wednesday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    Priti did and Kemi does appeal most to ex Tory Reform voters, Tom Tug appeals most to ex Tory LD voters, Cleverly and Stride appeal most to ex Tory Labour voters. Jenrick however may be just right, the only candidate who could appeal to all of them! He also speaks well, certainly more articulate than Starmer is
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    Nunu5 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
    Jenrick was second with Tory members behind Badenoch in a ConHome survey this morning
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/09/04/our-survey-badenoch-maintains-her-lead-in-the-leadership-race-and-defeats-all-comers-in-the-final-round/
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,573
    edited September 2024
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    He’s not any of the others, and he’s probably the one who is the least high profile with the public. Gives him a bit more of a fresh slate angle (don’t get me wrong, he has baggage, but they all do).
    A lower profile than Mel Stride and Tom Tugenwhatsit? Blimey.
    Both of them are surely doomed - how can they be a credible leader winning from fourth or fifth choice among their colleagues, with only high teens of MPs supporting each of them.
    Jeremy Corbyn waves hello :wink:

    Oh, 'credible'... :lol:

    ETA: Truss polled 14% of MPs in first round when she went on to win. Again, there's that 'credible' issue, I'll admit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,726
    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Under the table, grumpy that my breakfast was more interesting than his.
    Ah yes, I see him now. If that is your good self!
    No, I took the photo
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,468
    OldKingCole said:

    Thought the bottom two dropped out?

    It's a Putin debate. One gets fed a cup of tea, then defenestrated.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,726
    HYUFD said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
    Jenrick was second with Tory members behind Badenoch in a ConHome survey this morning
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/09/04/our-survey-badenoch-maintains-her-lead-in-the-leadership-race-and-defeats-all-comers-in-the-final-round/
    I’d say it’s one or the other of them, with MPs now likely to gather around their chosen front runner in the hope of predetermining the member vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Jim_the_Lurker said:

    I guess not so good numbers for Badenoch. Although given the rumours that she can start a fight in an empty room it is perhaps unsurprising that her colleagues aren’t marching in support. But, I still see them, for various poor reasons (including things like the ConHom polls), sending her to the members as one of the top two.

    So the fight is for the second spot. Based on these numbers Jenrick will probably be the most confident of making that birth. However, Cleverly will definitely think he can pick up a fair few of the Stride / Tugendhat backers.

    Jenrick (And I think it is driven by Jenrick's team) has been doing a decent hatchet job on her over the winter fuel flip flops and so forth she's done on social media.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,573
    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    I have no idea either.

    He wont last until the GE imho.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,792
    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    He's so generic that he's adopted that as his surname. He does come across as just your basic Tory. Perhaps that is the appeal to Tory MPs, when they look at him they see their own essence reflected back at them.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited September 2024
    Pulpstar said:

    Jim_the_Lurker said:

    I guess not so good numbers for Badenoch. Although given the rumours that she can start a fight in an empty room it is perhaps unsurprising that her colleagues aren’t marching in support. But, I still see them, for various poor reasons (including things like the ConHom polls), sending her to the members as one of the top two.

    So the fight is for the second spot. Based on these numbers Jenrick will probably be the most confident of making that birth. However, Cleverly will definitely think he can pick up a fair few of the Stride / Tugendhat backers.

    Jenrick (And I think it is driven by Jenrick's team) has been doing a decent hatchet job on her over the winter fuel flip flops and so forth she's done on social media.
    Kemi's faced a LOT of scrutiny (far more than any of the other candidates) I think the fall out she's had with scheming Govester may have scuppered her chances for now...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,669
    Jonathan said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    He’s not any of the others, and he’s probably the one who is the least high profile with the public. Gives him a bit more of a fresh slate angle (don’t get me wrong, he has baggage, but they all do).
    A lower profile than Mel Stride and Tom Tugenwhatsit? Blimey.
    Stride, to his credit, was one of the few ministers prepared to go on the BBC, etc in the run up to the election on behalf of the government. Many of the rest were simply AWOL.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,669
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    Priti did and Kemi does appeal most to ex Tory Reform voters, Tom Tug appeals most to ex Tory LD voters, Cleverly and Stride appeal most to ex Tory Labour voters. Jenrick however may be just right, the only candidate who could appeal to all of them! He also speaks well, certainly more articulate than Starmer is
    Little Tommy Tugboat does not appeal to me,
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 785
    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    He’s not any of the others, and he’s probably the one who is the least high profile with the public. Gives him a bit more of a fresh slate angle (don’t get me wrong, he has baggage, but they all do).
    A lower profile than Mel Stride and Tom Tugenwhatsit? Blimey.
    Stride, to his credit, was one of the few ministers prepared to go on the BBC, etc in the run up to the election on behalf of the government. Many of the rest were simply AWOL.
    He has a good voice for audiobooks apparently?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,942
    On the basis of the fist round shouldn't Cleverly be favourite? If it wasn't for his disappointing flirtation with someone else's Rwanda policy I'm sure he'd be the one Starmer would most fear
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    Do we think all 16 who voted for Stride are genuine Stride backers?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,573
    Roger said:

    On the basis of the fist round shouldn't Cleverly be favourite? If it wasn't for his disappointing flirtation with someone else's Rwanda policy I'm sure he'd be the one Starmer would most fear

    If there is a fist round, then I would back one of the ex-military men :wink:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Jenrick's lead over Badenoch is the same as the spread between the remaining candidates. He has a fairly commanding position.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,669
    Selebian said:

    Roger said:

    On the basis of the fist round shouldn't Cleverly be favourite? If it wasn't for his disappointing flirtation with someone else's Rwanda policy I'm sure he'd be the one Starmer would most fear

    If there is a fist round, then I would back one of the ex-military men :wink:
    If TT is a trained killer, he hides it well.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,712
    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Stride is my preferred candidate 🍺
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Why never Jenrick?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,294
    Here is my guess at the transfers.
    Cleverly and Tugendhat to go to the members.


  • eekeek Posts: 31,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    Everybody loves a (Cambridge educated) lawyer.

    I think that he’s gone from One Nation to radicalised Brexiteer with no intervening period and has the zeal of a convert is what is winning it for him.

    And the fact he puts the nasty in the Nasty party will do him wonders with Tory members.

    With none tory voters the impact will be to confirm how revolting the party is.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    NickyBreakspear said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    He’s not any of the others, and he’s probably the one who is the least high profile with the public. Gives him a bit more of a fresh slate angle (don’t get me wrong, he has baggage, but they all do).
    A lower profile than Mel Stride and Tom Tugenwhatsit? Blimey.
    Stride, to his credit, was one of the few ministers prepared to go on the BBC, etc in the run up to the election on behalf of the government. Many of the rest were simply AWOL.
    He has a good voice for audiobooks apparently?
    It's Jenrick who has been labelled "The Voice" by @Anabobazina
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,005
    edited September 2024
    Betting reaction: Jen and Bad tight at the top, Clev treading water, Tug out with the washing. Stride is massive at 60 if we think he can squeak past Tug next time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    GB News reports Patel team are shocked and Cleverly and Badenoch supporters tactically voted to knock her out.

    As a result expect most Patel voters to shift to Jenrick with maybe even a few for Stride and Tugendhat.

    I would also expect a few Stride backers to switch to Tugendhat given Tugendhat narrowly won the contest between the 2 for the One Nation wing
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,942
    edited September 2024
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    Priti did and Kemi does appeal most to ex Tory Reform voters, Tom Tug appeals most to ex Tory LD voters, Cleverly and Stride appeal most to ex Tory Labour voters. Jenrick however may be just right, the only candidate who could appeal to all of them! He also speaks well, certainly more articulate than Starmer is
    Little Tommy Tugboat does not appeal to me,
    I feel a childrens book coming on....

    Tommy Tugboat

    Kemi Butterscotch

    Jimmy Cleverboy

    Pritty Polly

    Dodgy Bob

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Barnesian said:

    Here is my guess at the transfers.
    Cleverly and Tugendhat to go to the members.


    That looks like a wishcast. How is Tugendhat going to get any momentum from here and why do you think Patel's supports will be split evenly rather than going for Jenrick?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,005
    Barnesian said:

    Here is my guess at the transfers.
    Cleverly and Tugendhat to go to the members.

    Wow. Given RJ and KB are short priced co-favs that is a big money making view if it's right.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    williamglenn said:

    NickyBreakspear said:

    Nigelb said:

    Jonathan said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    He’s not any of the others, and he’s probably the one who is the least high profile with the public. Gives him a bit more of a fresh slate angle (don’t get me wrong, he has baggage, but they all do).
    A lower profile than Mel Stride and Tom Tugenwhatsit? Blimey.
    Stride, to his credit, was one of the few ministers prepared to go on the BBC, etc in the run up to the election on behalf of the government. Many of the rest were simply AWOL.
    He has a good voice for audiobooks apparently?
    It's Jenrick who has been labelled "The Voice" by @Anabobazina
    I like @SandraMc "Dodgy Bobby" - That will stick on here methinks :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    Priti did and Kemi does appeal most to ex Tory Reform voters, Tom Tug appeals most to ex Tory LD voters, Cleverly and Stride appeal most to ex Tory Labour voters. Jenrick however may be just right, the only candidate who could appeal to all of them! He also speaks well, certainly more articulate than Starmer is
    Little Tommy Tugboat does not appeal to me,
    Yes but you didn't even vote Conservative in 2019 when they won a majority I believe
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    londonpubman said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Stride is my preferred candidate 🍺
    Dull and ideologically Sunak 2.

    A reasonable no 2 but Stride is not a leader
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,573
    Nigelb said:

    Selebian said:

    Roger said:

    On the basis of the fist round shouldn't Cleverly be favourite? If it wasn't for his disappointing flirtation with someone else's Rwanda policy I'm sure he'd be the one Starmer would most fear

    If there is a fist round, then I would back one of the ex-military men :wink:
    If TT is a trained killer, he hides it well.
    It's always the um... whatever he is... ones.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    JohnO said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Why never Jenrick?
    Borderline corruption over the Richard Desmond Westferry planning application; breaching COVID rules, that mural, and open public support for Trump (I’m not sure which is worse: his actually endorses MAGA or cynically that will heighten his appeal to the membership).

    Labour and LDs would have a field day…
    Jenrick is the best positioned to be able to deliver poll leads by suppressing the Reform vote and then pivoting to the centre for the next election. The others all risk oblivion for the party.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,893
    Roger said:

    On the basis of the fist round shouldn't Cleverly be favourite? If it wasn't for his disappointing flirtation with someone else's Rwanda policy I'm sure he'd be the one Starmer would most fear

    I've always thought Cleverly was good value, and after this I think he's even better value.

    My guesses are:

    R2:
    KB 29
    JC 21
    RJ 33
    MS 18
    TT 17

    R3 (here it gets close and we could easily have a tie for last place - what happens then?):
    KB 29
    JC 29
    RJ 33
    MS 27

    R4:
    KB 32
    JC 44
    RJ 42


    So Cleverly and Jenrick go to the membership.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    I wonder if Vanilla are ever going to fix the comments so that we get newest first, again?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Thanks JohnO. I hope that you are well and are enjoying the possibilities of refreshing your party. Who knows they may even pick the right one.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,760
    Nunu5 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
    As for the voters...

    A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    edited September 2024
    JohnO said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Why never Jenrick?
    Borderline corruption over the Richard Desmond Westferry planning application; breaching COVID rules, that mural, and open public support for Trump (I’m not sure which is worse: his actually endorses MAGA or cynically that will heighten his appeal to the membership).

    Labour and LDs would have a field day…
    Most Reform voters back Trump and hated the COVID lockdown and sad to say are not keen on warm treatment of asylum seekers either and the Tories lost more 2019 voters to Reform than Labour and the LDs combined at the general election.

    As for planning applications, may boost the LDs a bit locally but being a bit over keen to endorse developers planning applications may not be too bad a thing for a Tory leader who needs to get more affordable homes built for young people
  • FatMaudeFatMaude Posts: 8
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guess Tory MP's must find Priti's simpering grin as annoying as the rest of us...

    I think the letter 'g' complained that it had been dropped without any reason.
    Priti's simpering 'rin
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Why never Jenrick?
    Borderline corruption over the Richard Desmond Westferry planning application; breaching COVID rules, that mural, and open public support for Trump (I’m not sure which is worse: his actually endorses MAGA or cynically that will heighten his appeal to the membership).

    Labour and LDs would have a field day…
    Jenrick is the best positioned to be able to deliver poll leads by suppressing the Reform vote and then pivoting to the centre for the next election. The others all risk oblivion for the party.
    He will ensure that the Tories will be eclipsed by the Lib Dems in terms of seats.

    That’s how bad he is.
    Rubbish, on the latest poll the Tories are already just 4% behind Labour while the LDs are 8% now behind Reform.

    If that holds the Tories would regain some seats lost to the LDs
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Thanks JohnO. I hope that you are well and are enjoying the possibilities of refreshing your party. Who knows they may even pick the right one.
    Thanks but, as usual, they won’t.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,573
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Why never Jenrick?
    Borderline corruption over the Richard Desmond Westferry planning application; breaching COVID rules, that mural, and open public support for Trump (I’m not sure which is worse: his actually endorses MAGA or cynically that will heighten his appeal to the membership).

    Labour and LDs would have a field day…
    Jenrick is the best positioned to be able to deliver poll leads by suppressing the Reform vote and then pivoting to the centre for the next election. The others all risk oblivion for the party.
    He will ensure that the Tories will be eclipsed by the Lib Dems in terms of seats.

    That’s how bad he is.
    Rubbish, on the latest poll the Tories are already just 4% behind Labour while the LDs are 8% now behind Reform.

    If that holds the Tories would regain some seats lost to the LDs
    Who cares about inter-election polling? Exciting Ed is already planning his stunts for the next election campaign :lol:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    edited September 2024
    Scott_xP said:

    If Jenrick is the answer, WTF was the question?

    How to turn this around?

    Labour - 33.7%
    Conservative - 23.7%
    Reform - 14.3%
    Liberal Democrats - 12.2%
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,760
    numbertwelve said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    He’s not any of the others, and he’s probably the one who is the least high profile with the public. Gives him a bit more of a fresh slate angle (don’t get me wrong, he has baggage, but they all do).
    The painting over the cartoons really cut through.Its as bad as poor Liam Byrne's "there's no money left" note. In fact it's worse because it was nasty as well as stupid
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    edited September 2024
    Cicero said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
    As for the voters...

    A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
    Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.

    Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,669
    How do you get sued by the Girl Scouts ?

    The Girl Scouts sued wife of North Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson over nearly $3,000 in “money owed”– and won
    https://notesfromthechalkboard.com/2024/08/19/the-girl-scouts-sued-wife-of-north-carolina-republican-gubernatorial-candidate-mark-robinson-over-nearly-3000-in-money-owed-and-won/
    ..The records do not explain what the (bounced) check was for or offer any context around what happened between Hill and the Girl Scouts..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,664
    Trying to work out if I actually care about this

    I guess I do. A bit

    They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited September 2024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Why never Jenrick?
    Borderline corruption over the Richard Desmond Westferry planning application; breaching COVID rules, that mural, and open public support for Trump (I’m not sure which is worse: his actually endorses MAGA or cynically that will heighten his appeal to the membership).

    Labour and LDs would have a field day…
    Jenrick is the best positioned to be able to deliver poll leads by suppressing the Reform vote and then pivoting to the centre for the next election. The others all risk oblivion for the party.
    He will ensure that the Tories will be eclipsed by the Lib Dems in terms of seats.

    That’s how bad he is.
    I could see Jenrick stepping down sometime around late 2027 and making way for a newly returned Big Dog... 👀
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,893
    Just curious - is there anyone on here who doesn't think the Tory leadership candidate best placed to win votes and seats is also the candidate whose views most match their own? (e.g. I favour candidate x because that candidate most matches my views, though I acknowledge it's not obvious how that candidate will appeal to the electorate?)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Why never Jenrick?
    Borderline corruption over the Richard Desmond Westferry planning application; breaching COVID rules, that mural, and open public support for Trump (I’m not sure which is worse: his actually endorses MAGA or cynically that will heighten his appeal to the membership).

    Labour and LDs would have a field day…
    Jenrick is the best positioned to be able to deliver poll leads by suppressing the Reform vote and then pivoting to the centre for the next election. The others all risk oblivion for the party.
    He will ensure that the Tories will be eclipsed by the Lib Dems in terms of seats.

    That’s how bad he is.
    Rubbish, on the latest poll the Tories are already just 4% behind Labour while the LDs are 8% now behind Reform.

    If that holds the Tories would regain some seats lost to the LDs
    Do you honestly think the polls won’t change if Jenrick becomes leader and/or in 2029 in time for the election?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,573
    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Thanks JohnO. I hope that you are well and are enjoying the possibilities of refreshing your party. Who knows they may even pick the right one.
    Thanks but, as usual, they won’t.
    Probably true. Seems that parties rarely do after big defeats.

    By the way, is that (a slightly younger) Raab in your pic? I'd forgotten about him!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,573
    Nigelb said:

    How do you get sued by the Girl Scouts ?

    The Girl Scouts sued wife of North Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson over nearly $3,000 in “money owed”– and won
    https://notesfromthechalkboard.com/2024/08/19/the-girl-scouts-sued-wife-of-north-carolina-republican-gubernatorial-candidate-mark-robinson-over-nearly-3000-in-money-owed-and-won/
    ..The records do not explain what the (bounced) check was for or offer any context around what happened between Hill and the Girl Scouts..

    She must have been a real sucker for bob a job week!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,664
    Cookie said:

    Just curious - is there anyone on here who doesn't think the Tory leadership candidate best placed to win votes and seats is also the candidate whose views most match their own? (e.g. I favour candidate x because that candidate most matches my views, though I acknowledge it's not obvious how that candidate will appeal to the electorate?)

    Very astute question. I might be guilty of that a bit…

    I’m watching the Netflix show The Gentleman at the moment (it’s quite diverting but no masterpiece) and I’ve just realised Jenrick reminds me of the moronic coke sniffing older brother. At least physically
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,770
    Cookie said:

    Just curious - is there anyone on here who doesn't think the Tory leadership candidate best placed to win votes and seats is also the candidate whose views most match their own? (e.g. I favour candidate x because that candidate most matches my views, though I acknowledge it's not obvious how that candidate will appeal to the electorate?)

    Only in the negative.

    I don't think any of them match my views, I don't think any of them will return the Tories to power.

    I think the next Tory PM is probably not an MP yet
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    JohnO said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Why never Jenrick?
    Borderline corruption over the Richard Desmond Westferry planning application; breaching COVID rules, that mural, and open public support for Trump (I’m not sure which is worse: his actually endorses MAGA or cynically that will heighten his appeal to the membership).

    Labour and LDs would have a field day…
    Jenrick is the best positioned to be able to deliver poll leads by suppressing the Reform vote and then pivoting to the centre for the next election. The others all risk oblivion for the party.
    The Tories lost over 60 seats to the LibDems….a sharp rightwards shift and then an opportunistic ‘pivot’ to the centre (and just how would he do that??) ain’t going to rebuild the shattered Blue Wall.

    However, my principal objection relates to ethics and propriety.

    But I think he will win.
    We’re going to have so much to talk about at our working men’s lunches in October and November.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,294
    williamglenn said:

    Barnesian said:

    Here is my guess at the transfers.
    Cleverly and Tugendhat to go to the members.


    That looks like a wishcast. How is Tugendhat going to get any momentum from here and why do you think Patel's supports will be split evenly rather than going for Jenrick?
    Tugendhat's momentum is going to come from getting the majority of Stride's transfers. Having heard about the bad blood between Patel's supporters and KB and JC, I think you are right that Patel's transfer will mainly go to Jenrick. That puts Jenrick and Tugendhat in the last two with Jenrick the winner.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Scott_xP said:

    Cookie said:

    Just curious - is there anyone on here who doesn't think the Tory leadership candidate best placed to win votes and seats is also the candidate whose views most match their own? (e.g. I favour candidate x because that candidate most matches my views, though I acknowledge it's not obvious how that candidate will appeal to the electorate?)

    Only in the negative.

    I don't think any of them match my views, I don't think any of them will return the Tories to power.

    I think the next Tory PM is probably not an MP yet
    If someone came along with the exact Tory platform that you backed in 2015, would you support them?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    We're probably going to get Jenrick.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,573
    edited September 2024
    Cookie said:

    Just curious - is there anyone on here who doesn't think the Tory leadership candidate best placed to win votes and seats is also the candidate whose views most match their own? (e.g. I favour candidate x because that candidate most matches my views, though I acknowledge it's not obvious how that candidate will appeal to the electorate?)

    Tommy T is probably closest to my views, from what I've seen, but I don't think he'd be a good leader.

    I actually think Patel could have had some potential (at least for strengthening part of the remaining core, not for winning the next GE, but that's probably out of reach anyway - a bit of a John Michael Howard if she also has the organisational skill) far as she is from my politics. Likewise, while I suspect Badenoch wouldn't manage things well, with a good team and her rhetorical skill she might get somewhere.

    I tend to think Cleverly might actually be the most effective. I'm fairly neutral on him personally.

    ETA: cross out 'John'!

    ETA2: Although John and Michael do look a little bit similar...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    Everybody loves a (Cambridge educated) lawyer.

    I think that he’s gone from One Nation to radicalised Brexiteer with no intervening period and has the zeal of a convert is what is winning it for him.
    So Robert Jenrick is a UKer version of JD Vance?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    Leon said:

    Trying to work out if I actually care about this

    I guess I do. A bit

    They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln

    I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.

    He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.

    I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,712
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    williamglenn said:

    JohnO said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    Breakfast?
    Hello JohnO, who are you supporting in this clash of the titans?
    Preferences are Stride, Cleverly, Tugendhat….shrugs shoulders…then Badenoch but NEVER Jenrick.
    Why never Jenrick?
    Borderline corruption over the Richard Desmond Westferry planning application; breaching COVID rules, that mural, and open public support for Trump (I’m not sure which is worse: his actually endorses MAGA or cynically that will heighten his appeal to the membership).

    Labour and LDs would have a field day…
    Jenrick is the best positioned to be able to deliver poll leads by suppressing the Reform vote and then pivoting to the centre for the next election. The others all risk oblivion for the party.
    He will ensure that the Tories will be eclipsed by the Lib Dems in terms of seats.

    That’s how bad he is.
    Rubbish, on the latest poll the Tories are already just 4% behind Labour while the LDs are 8% now behind Reform.

    If that holds the Tories would regain some seats lost to the LDs
    A long way to go to the GE 😁
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,664
    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Nunu5 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jenrick. I don’t get it.

    If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.

    I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?

    The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
    As for the voters...

    A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
    Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.

    Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
    I can usually see why some politicians simply irritate the voters. Ed Miliband. Young William
    Hague. Gove

    But I don’t see why Patel. Maybe Racism? Misogyny? Snobbery?

    I suspect a complex mix of all three are at work, with varying blends in individuals
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    OldKingCole said:

    IanB2 said:

    First! All the way from sunny breakfast time Colorado…


    No dog?
    FYI, as a rule dog is NOT featured on US breakfast menus.
This discussion has been closed.

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