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It’s not Priti for Patel or Tom Tugendhat – politicalbetting.com
It’s not Priti for Patel or Tom Tugendhat – politicalbetting.com
It’s not Priti for Patel. pic.twitter.com/LZtflHbo6b
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So, a few have sat this out, assuming the candidates vote?
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
Any indications of where they might go?
I think that he’s gone from One Nation to radicalised Brexiteer with no intervening period and has the zeal of a convert is what is winning it for him.
Good result for Jenrick, Stride, Cleverly.
Disappointing for Kemi (frontrunners usually benefit from being able to continually demonstrate they are the frontrunner).
Bad for TT.
Priti and her supporters will be annoyed she was knocked out first rather than Stride as expected, so I doubt Stride gets any Patel votes. It is also not a good result for Kemi, who this morning was clear favourite but came behind Jenrick who topped the poll and was just 1 vote ahead of Cleverly for second. I would also expect more Priti transfers to go to Jenrick and Cleverly than Badenoch.
Tugendhat would pick up almost all the Stride transfers if Stride goes out next
So the fight is for the second spot. Based on these numbers Jenrick will probably be the most confident of making that birth. However, Cleverly will definitely think he can pick up a fair few of the Stride / Tugendhat backers.
https://conservativehome.com/2024/09/04/our-survey-badenoch-maintains-her-lead-in-the-leadership-race-and-defeats-all-comers-in-the-final-round/
Oh, 'credible'...
ETA: Truss polled 14% of MPs in first round when she went on to win. Again, there's that 'credible' issue, I'll admit.
He wont last until the GE imho.
Cleverly and Tugendhat to go to the members.
And the fact he puts the nasty in the Nasty party will do him wonders with Tory members.
With none tory voters the impact will be to confirm how revolting the party is.
As a result expect most Patel voters to shift to Jenrick with maybe even a few for Stride and Tugendhat.
I would also expect a few Stride backers to switch to Tugendhat given Tugendhat narrowly won the contest between the 2 for the One Nation wing
Tommy Tugboat
Kemi Butterscotch
Jimmy Cleverboy
Pritty Polly
Dodgy Bob
Labour and LDs would have a field day…
A reasonable no 2 but Stride is not a leader
My guesses are:
R2:
KB 29
JC 21
RJ 33
MS 18
TT 17
R3 (here it gets close and we could easily have a tie for last place - what happens then?):
KB 29
JC 29
RJ 33
MS 27
R4:
KB 32
JC 44
RJ 42
So Cleverly and Jenrick go to the membership.
That’s how bad he is.
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
As for planning applications, may boost the LDs a bit locally but being a bit over keen to endorse developers planning applications may not be too bad a thing for a Tory leader who needs to get more affordable homes built for young people
However, my principal objection relates to ethics and propriety.
But I think he will win.
If that holds the Tories would regain some seats lost to the LDs
Labour - 33.7%
Conservative - 23.7%
Reform - 14.3%
Liberal Democrats - 12.2%
Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
The Girl Scouts sued wife of North Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson over nearly $3,000 in “money owed”– and won
https://notesfromthechalkboard.com/2024/08/19/the-girl-scouts-sued-wife-of-north-carolina-republican-gubernatorial-candidate-mark-robinson-over-nearly-3000-in-money-owed-and-won/
..The records do not explain what the (bounced) check was for or offer any context around what happened between Hill and the Girl Scouts..
I guess I do. A bit
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
By the way, is that (a slightly younger) Raab in your pic? I'd forgotten about him!
I’m watching the Netflix show The Gentleman at the moment (it’s quite diverting but no masterpiece) and I’ve just realised Jenrick reminds me of the moronic coke sniffing older brother. At least physically
I don't think any of them match my views, I don't think any of them will return the Tories to power.
I think the next Tory PM is probably not an MP yet
I actually think Patel could have had some potential (at least for strengthening part of the remaining core, not for winning the next GE, but that's probably out of reach anyway - a bit of a John Michael Howard if she also has the organisational skill) far as she is from my politics. Likewise, while I suspect Badenoch wouldn't manage things well, with a good team and her rhetorical skill she might get somewhere.
I tend to think Cleverly might actually be the most effective. I'm fairly neutral on him personally.
ETA: cross out 'John'!
ETA2: Although John and Michael do look a little bit similar...
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
Hague. Gove
But I don’t see why Patel. Maybe Racism? Misogyny? Snobbery?
I suspect a complex mix of all three are at work, with varying blends in individuals