They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
Also they HAVE to go right first to try and win back some of that Reform vote
Without that - or a deal with Farage - they cannot begin to think of “winning”. Once that is done they can gently move more to the centre
But on migration/asylum/culture wars the Tories have to be firmly right wing and stay there. They need to admit their policies in these areas did not work and they need to show some thought on policies that WILL work
Because this is a pivotal policy area and it highly favourable for right wing parties if they get it right. As we see across Europe and the west. And Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing it
The Tories should promise to completely clean out the home office and replace 90% of its staff. Indeed they need to promise this of the whole civil service. The blob has to go
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
Everybody loves a (Cambridge educated) lawyer.
I think that he’s gone from One Nation to radicalised Brexiteer with no intervening period and has the zeal of a convert is what is winning it for him.
So Robert Jenrick is a UKer version of JD Vance?
He’s more the Tory Richard Burgon.
Even Richard Burgon would have won the general election this year
He really wouldn't. The stupid barsteward wouldn't have got my vote.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
As for the voters...
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.
Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
Surprise surprise, PB's centrist brigade fiercely object to a political leader who doesn't conform to their world view, even as leader of a right wing party.
Quite. The woke centrist dads don’t like right wingers. Amazing
It’s SO FUCKING BORING
Yes, if this was 1975 PB woke centrist dads on here would have been going 'ooh look at that awful nasty rightwing Thatcher woman. How on earth the Tories could have chosen her over nice centrist Willie Whitelaw is beyond me. Bring back Heath I say! Wilson and Callaghan are set for a landslide in 1979 now, nailed on!'
You’re a Corbyn fan in 2015.
Corbyn was always outside the Overton window. Given Reform's showing in July, I'm not sure the same can be definitively said for any of the Tory contenders.
Not sure he was, policy wise. He was outside people's moral window when it came to foreign policy, particularly on the Middle East and in the aftermath of the Salisbury poisoning. His domestic policies though were very much within the window of an electorate that tends to be more into state spending and nationalisation than the political class.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
As for the voters...
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.
Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
Surprise surprise, PB's centrist brigade fiercely object to a political leader who doesn't conform to their world view, even as leader of a right wing party.
Quite. The woke centrist dads don’t like right wingers. Amazing
It’s SO FUCKING BORING
Yes, if this was 1975 PB woke centrist dads on here would have been going 'ooh look at that awful nasty rightwing Thatcher woman. How on earth the Tories could have chosen her over nice centrist Willie Whitelaw is beyond me. Bring back Heath I say! Wilson and Callaghan are set for a landslide in 1979 now, nailed on!'
Prediction: whoever wins the Tory leadership they will be attacked for being the worst/most useless one.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
Also they HAVE to go right first to try and win back some of that Reform vote
Without that - or a deal with Farage - they cannot begin to think of “winning”. Once that is done they can gently move more to the centre
But on migration/asylum/culture wars the Tories have to be firmly right wing and stay there. They need to admit their policies in these areas did not work and they need to show some thought on policies that WILL work
Because this is a pivotal policy area and it highly favourable for right wing parties if they get it right. As we see across Europe and the west. And Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing it
The Tories should promise to completely clean out the home office and replace 90% of its staff. Indeed they need to promise this of the whole civil service. The blob has to go
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
Perhaps it will be another example of the ludicrousness of allowing loony members to have the final say on whom should be the MPs' boss.
Isn't it far more ridiculous to have a group of like-minded individuals form a political party, and use their own money, time and shoe leather to elect a slate of MPs and a leader who don't agree with them on anything and will pretty much do whatever the f*** they like once elected, mainly what all the other parties were doing anyway?
If a right wing Tory leader aligned with the views of the membership is such a ludicrously off-putting concept, let it happen, let it put people off, and let the Tories be a Lib Dem size party - at least people will know what they're voting for. But personally, I don't think those demanding a centrist Tory Party are that confident in the unelectability of the right.
It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with.
I haven’t really tuned in but is there a candidate that will satisfy my “far right” craving?
Isn't one of the main concerns about the far right, particularly in the US, that it seems to be extolling precisely the opposite of a "prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with", and in several cases is actually quite partial to said foreign autocrats?
The world has gone to complete sh1t during the Biden years and there’s a pretty fair case to be made it’s primarily been driven by the world’s autocrats sensing weakness. Far Right Meloni has done a better job of standing up to Putin than certainly Merkel and arguably Sholz. The world is not as simple as you make it out to be.
The far right is no more homogenous than the far left, which also has a number of unreconstructed tankies in its ranks. And Meloni (and PiS in Poland) are closer to traditionalist authoritarian right - Francoists - than the particular form of trolling as politics that is being illustrated daily by simply looking down a list of people Elon Musk is retweeting or Tucker Carlson is interviewing (and in many cases Putin's trolls are amplifying).
I hope you are in the former camp.
The modern “centre” has completely effed up the world, with its appalling debasement of fiat, anti growth fiscal policies, unwillingness to maintain pride in western values or the strength to defend them from nefarious actors.
Weren't you just saying the world is not as simple as I make it out to be? Yet you just posted a reply as sweeping and simplified as it's possible to be.
Likewise the original comment that "It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with" is just polemic. This is what culture war does - takes the most extreme views to be found on the other side of the argument, then treats them as the mainstream opinion of ones opponents and condemns them as such.
We all know the real far right when we see them. One of them was on the air yesterday telling us the real villain of WW2 was Churchill, and the Nazis accidentally killed a few million Jews.
This quite bland list of requirements just led to the hope that I was merely “authoritarian right” like Meloni, rather than of the Holocaust denying far right type. For wanting a stable budget, a focus on productivity growth and a national defence capable of deterring modern fascists like Xi and Putin. And yet I am the polemicist…
There’s a massive unmet political demand for my list. To bring back on topic, are any of the remaining 5 Tory candidates willing to meet this demand? Certainly the US feels a long way away from giving voters such a candidate.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
The soonest is almost certainly in 4 years given the scale of majority (5 years if they are trailing in the polls), which by recent political standards feels like a lifetime.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
As for the voters...
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.
Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
Surprise surprise, PB's centrist brigade fiercely object to a political leader who doesn't conform to their world view, even as leader of a right wing party.
Quite. The woke centrist dads don’t like right wingers. Amazing
It’s SO FUCKING BORING
Yes, if this was 1975 PB woke centrist dads on here would have been going 'ooh look at that awful nasty rightwing Thatcher woman. How on earth the Tories could have chosen her over nice centrist Willie Whitelaw is beyond me. Bring back Heath I say! Wilson and Callaghan are set for a landslide in 1979 now, nailed on!'
You’re a Corbyn fan in 2015.
Corbyn was always outside the Overton window. Given Reform's showing in July, I'm not sure the same can be definitively said for any of the Tory contenders.
Not sure he was, policy wise. He was outside people's moral window when it came to foreign policy, particularly on the Middle East and in the aftermath of the Salisbury poisoning. His domestic policies though were very much within the window of an electorate that tends to be more into state spending and nationalisation than the political class.
Also the whole IRA thing. Despicable
Inviting them to the Commons right after the Brighton bomb??
I still haven’t decided if Corbyn is stupid or evil or a mix
"Why did the Grenfell Inquiry take so long to tell us what we know already? Ross Clark
Predictably enough, and not unreasonably, the 1700-page final report into the Grenfell disaster apportions the bulk of the blame with the companies who manufactured and sold the flammable cladding and insulation.
What has emerged from this inquiry is astonishing: you hardly need a degree in engineering to work out that it is not a good idea to wrap a tower block in combustible material. That manufacturers seem to have ‘deliberately concealed’ the risk that their products posed is something which is almost inevitably going to be picked over further in the courts. Why it has taken seven years to produce this report – thereby holding up possible criminal cases – is itself a scandal. As ever with our drawn-out public inquiries many of the guilty parties will no longer be around to face the music, at least not in the roles they held."
As ever with our drawn-out public inquiries many of the guilty parties will no longer be around to face the music, at least not in the roles they held."
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
Perhaps it will be another example of the ludicrousness of allowing loony members to have the final say on whom should be the MPs' boss.
Isn't it far more ridiculous to have a group of like-minded individuals form a political party, and use their own money, time and shoe leather to elect a slate of MPs and a leader who don't agree with them on anything and will pretty much do whatever the f*** they like once elected, mainly what all the other parties were doing anyway?
If a right wing Tory leader aligned with the views of the membership is such a ludicrously off-putting concept, let it happen, let it put people off, and let the Tories be a Lib Dem size party - at least people will know what they're voting for. But personally, I don't think those demanding a centrist Tory Party are that confident in the unelectability of the right.
It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with.
I haven’t really tuned in but is there a candidate that will satisfy my “far right” craving?
Isn't one of the main concerns about the far right, particularly in the US, that it seems to be extolling precisely the opposite of a "prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with", and in several cases is actually quite partial to said foreign autocrats?
The world has gone to complete sh1t during the Biden years and there’s a pretty fair case to be made it’s primarily been driven by the world’s autocrats sensing weakness. Far Right Meloni has done a better job of standing up to Putin than certainly Merkel and arguably Sholz. The world is not as simple as you make it out to be.
The far right is no more homogenous than the far left, which also has a number of unreconstructed tankies in its ranks. And Meloni (and PiS in Poland) are closer to traditionalist authoritarian right - Francoists - than the particular form of trolling as politics that is being illustrated daily by simply looking down a list of people Elon Musk is retweeting or Tucker Carlson is interviewing (and in many cases Putin's trolls are amplifying).
I hope you are in the former camp.
The modern “centre” has completely effed up the world, with its appalling debasement of fiat, anti growth fiscal policies, unwillingness to maintain pride in western values or the strength to defend them from nefarious actors.
Weren't you just saying the world is not as simple as I make it out to be? Yet you just posted a reply as sweeping and simplified as it's possible to be.
Likewise the original comment that "It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with" is just polemic. This is what culture war does - takes the most extreme views to be found on the other side of the argument, then treats them as the mainstream opinion of ones opponents and condemns them as such.
We all know the real far right when we see them. One of them was on the air yesterday telling us the real villain of WW2 was Churchill, and the Nazis accidentally killed a few million Jews.
This quite bland list of requirements just led to the hope that I was merely “authoritarian right” like Meloni, rather than of the Holocaust denying far right type. For wanting a stable budget, a focus on productivity growth and a national defence capable of deterring modern fascists like Xi and Putin. And yet I am the polemicist…
There’s a massive unmet political demand for my list. To bring back on topic, are any of the remaining 5 Tory candidates willing to meet this demand? Certainly the US feels a long way away from giving voters such a candidate.
I don't think you're going to find small statists among them. They are too beholden to the pensioner vote for that.
The key number is 41. That's what you need to be confirmed in the final two. What's is Cleverly's USP?
He is the John Major figure who rises without trace as the compromise candidate. May not get past the membership though. They would want some one a bit more nasty.
Cleverly is the only candidate I would attach the moniker "avuncular" to. That can take you places. They probably don't need avuncularity right now, but I think they could do worse.
I think whoever is the most right wing will win with the members, and it looks as if the more mainstream tendency need to get behind a candidate quickly as Patels supporters are likely to give a boost to Badenoch or Jenrick, though Cleverly may pick up a few.
Tugenhadt or Stride out next, leaving the fantastic four for the Conference. I anticipate Cleverly doing well there.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
Also they HAVE to go right first to try and win back some of that Reform vote
Without that - or a deal with Farage - they cannot begin to think of “winning”. Once that is done they can gently move more to the centre
But on migration/asylum/culture wars the Tories have to be firmly right wing and stay there. They need to admit their policies in these areas did not work and they need to show some thought on policies that WILL work
Because this is a pivotal policy area and it highly favourable for right wing parties if they get it right. As we see across Europe and the west. And Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing it
The Tories should promise to completely clean out the home office and replace 90% of its staff. Indeed they need to promise this of the whole civil service. The blob has to go
As programmes for government go 'We're going to sort out crime and immigration by sacking 90% of the Home Office' might need a bit of marketing work.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
As for the voters...
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.
Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
Surprise surprise, PB's centrist brigade fiercely object to a political leader who doesn't conform to their world view, even as leader of a right wing party.
Quite. The woke centrist dads don’t like right wingers. Amazing
It’s SO FUCKING BORING
Yes, if this was 1975 PB woke centrist dads on here would have been going 'ooh look at that awful nasty rightwing Thatcher woman. How on earth the Tories could have chosen her over nice centrist Willie Whitelaw is beyond me. Bring back Heath I say! Wilson and Callaghan are set for a landslide in 1979 now, nailed on!'
You’re a Corbyn fan in 2015.
In 2017 Corbyn got 40% of the vote (7% more than even Starmer this year) and gained 30 seats and got a hung parliament
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
As for the voters...
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.
Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
Surprise surprise, PB's centrist brigade fiercely object to a political leader who doesn't conform to their world view, even as leader of a right wing party.
Quite. The woke centrist dads don’t like right wingers. Amazing
It’s SO FUCKING BORING
Yes, if this was 1975 PB woke centrist dads on here would have been going 'ooh look at that awful nasty rightwing Thatcher woman. How on earth the Tories could have chosen her over nice centrist Willie Whitelaw is beyond me. Bring back Heath I say! Wilson and Callaghan are set for a landslide in 1979 now, nailed on!'
In all honesty, Whitelaw would likely have won in 1979. I'm not convinced Thatcher had any more influence in the collapse of the Callaghan Government than Starmer had in the collapse of the Truss or Sunak Governments.
He would have too but Thatcher did and introduced more radical economic changes than he would have
The key number is 41. That's what you need to be confirmed in the final two. What's is Cleverly's USP?
He is the John Major figure who rises without trace as the compromise candidate. May not get past the membership though. They would want some one a bit more nasty.
Cleverly is the only candidate I would attach the moniker "avuncular" to. That can take you places. They probably don't need avuncularity right now, but I think they could do worse.
I think whoever is the most right wing will win with the members, and it looks as if the more mainstream tendency need to get behind a candidate quickly as Patels supporters are likely to give a boost to Badenoch or Jenrick, though Cleverly may pick up a few.
Tugenhadt or Stride out next, leaving the fantastic four for the Conference. I anticipate Cleverly doing well there.
"Why did the Grenfell Inquiry take so long to tell us what we know already? Ross Clark
Predictably enough, and not unreasonably, the 1700-page final report into the Grenfell disaster apportions the bulk of the blame with the companies who manufactured and sold the flammable cladding and insulation.
What has emerged from this inquiry is astonishing: you hardly need a degree in engineering to work out that it is not a good idea to wrap a tower block in combustible material. That manufacturers seem to have ‘deliberately concealed’ the risk that their products posed is something which is almost inevitably going to be picked over further in the courts. Why it has taken seven years to produce this report – thereby holding up possible criminal cases – is itself a scandal. As ever with our drawn-out public inquiries many of the guilty parties will no longer be around to face the music, at least not in the roles they held."
Is it a legal requirement for criminal cases to wait for a judge-led enquiry? Can't be, surely? Must have been an operational decision.
It’s Standard Procedure.
The purpose of a public enquiry is to take 7 years to tell you what everyone knew 7 minutes after the event.
By burying the truth in time and 70,000 pages, the outrage is dimmed. Prosecution deferred or forgotten about.
Consider Rotherham. Thousands of victims. Those who covered up the matter - not even administrative action taken against them. They knew. They covered it up. They enabled it to go on.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
As for the voters...
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.
Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
Surprise surprise, PB's centrist brigade fiercely object to a political leader who doesn't conform to their world view, even as leader of a right wing party.
Quite. The woke centrist dads don’t like right wingers. Amazing
It’s SO FUCKING BORING
Yes, if this was 1975 PB woke centrist dads on here would have been going 'ooh look at that awful nasty rightwing Thatcher woman. How on earth the Tories could have chosen her over nice centrist Willie Whitelaw is beyond me. Bring back Heath I say! Wilson and Callaghan are set for a landslide in 1979 now, nailed on!'
You’re a Corbyn fan in 2015.
Corbyn was always outside the Overton window. Given Reform's showing in July, I'm not sure the same can be definitively said for any of the Tory contenders.
Not sure he was, policy wise. He was outside people's moral window when it came to foreign policy, particularly on the Middle East and in the aftermath of the Salisbury poisoning. His domestic policies though were very much within the window of an electorate that tends to be more into state spending and nationalisation than the political class.
Also the whole IRA thing. Despicable
Inviting them to the Commons right after the Brighton bomb??
I still haven’t decided if Corbyn is stupid or evil or a mix
He will have viewed it as a heroic Leninist act and something to be celebrated.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
Also they HAVE to go right first to try and win back some of that Reform vote
Without that - or a deal with Farage - they cannot begin to think of “winning”. Once that is done they can gently move more to the centre
But on migration/asylum/culture wars the Tories have to be firmly right wing and stay there. They need to admit their policies in these areas did not work and they need to show some thought on policies that WILL work
Because this is a pivotal policy area and it highly favourable for right wing parties if they get it right. As we see across Europe and the west. And Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing it
The Tories should promise to completely clean out the home office and replace 90% of its staff. Indeed they need to promise this of the whole civil service. The blob has to go
No matter - down to detail. 90% of the entire civil service - 468,000 people, to lose their jobs. Okay - replaced by whom? When?
Biggest department by headcount is the Ministry of Justice by the way.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
Perhaps it will be another example of the ludicrousness of allowing loony members to have the final say on whom should be the MPs' boss.
Isn't it far more ridiculous to have a group of like-minded individuals form a political party, and use their own money, time and shoe leather to elect a slate of MPs and a leader who don't agree with them on anything and will pretty much do whatever the f*** they like once elected, mainly what all the other parties were doing anyway?
If a right wing Tory leader aligned with the views of the membership is such a ludicrously off-putting concept, let it happen, let it put people off, and let the Tories be a Lib Dem size party - at least people will know what they're voting for. But personally, I don't think those demanding a centrist Tory Party are that confident in the unelectability of the right.
It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with.
I haven’t really tuned in but is there a candidate that will satisfy my “far right” craving?
Isn't one of the main concerns about the far right, particularly in the US, that it seems to be extolling precisely the opposite of a "prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with", and in several cases is actually quite partial to said foreign autocrats?
The world has gone to complete sh1t during the Biden years and there’s a pretty fair case to be made it’s primarily been driven by the world’s autocrats sensing weakness. Far Right Meloni has done a better job of standing up to Putin than certainly Merkel and arguably Sholz. The world is not as simple as you make it out to be.
Meloni? Are you on drugs? Italy has given almost nothing to Ukraine, even less than France!
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
As for the voters...
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.
Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
Surprise surprise, PB's centrist brigade fiercely object to a political leader who doesn't conform to their world view, even as leader of a right wing party.
Quite. The woke centrist dads don’t like right wingers. Amazing
It’s SO FUCKING BORING
Yes, if this was 1975 PB woke centrist dads on here would have been going 'ooh look at that awful nasty rightwing Thatcher woman. How on earth the Tories could have chosen her over nice centrist Willie Whitelaw is beyond me. Bring back Heath I say! Wilson and Callaghan are set for a landslide in 1979 now, nailed on!'
You’re a Corbyn fan in 2015.
In 2017 Corbyn got 40% of the vote (7% more than even Starmer this year) and gained 30 seats and got a hung parliament
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
As for the voters...
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.
Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
Surprise surprise, PB's centrist brigade fiercely object to a political leader who doesn't conform to their world view, even as leader of a right wing party.
Quite. The woke centrist dads don’t like right wingers. Amazing
It’s SO FUCKING BORING
Yes, if this was 1975 PB woke centrist dads on here would have been going 'ooh look at that awful nasty rightwing Thatcher woman. How on earth the Tories could have chosen her over nice centrist Willie Whitelaw is beyond me. Bring back Heath I say! Wilson and Callaghan are set for a landslide in 1979 now, nailed on!'
The key number is 41. That's what you need to be confirmed in the final two. What's is Cleverly's USP?
He is the John Major figure who rises without trace as the compromise candidate. May not get past the membership though. They would want some one a bit more nasty.
Cleverly is the only candidate I would attach the moniker "avuncular" to. That can take you places. They probably don't need avuncularity right now, but I think they could do worse.
Your creep nunky who makes inappropriate jokes about Rohypnol to your female friends?
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
Good evening
I cannot be bothered to even listen to the conservative leadership candidates and to be honest Sunak was probably as good as any of them will be judged by his performance at todays PMQs
Whoever succeeds will have a hard task, but it will be labours election to lose in 2029 and, whilst some of their announcements poll quite well, the doom and gloom and that 22 billion black hole repeated ad infinitum is not playing well and as for taking Grandma's winter fuel allowance and giving it to train drivers who will earn £70,000 plus was just about the worst optics Reeves could have come up with.
I expect both Starmer and Reeves regret their decision which ironically, if those 800,000 who are entitled to pension credit claim will cost Reeves over 3 billion extra and not a1.5 billion fantasy saving
The key number is 41. That's what you need to be confirmed in the final two. What's is Cleverly's USP?
He is the John Major figure who rises without trace as the compromise candidate. May not get past the membership though. They would want some one a bit more nasty.
Cleverly is the only candidate I would attach the moniker "avuncular" to. That can take you places. They probably don't need avuncularity right now, but I think they could do worse.
Cleverly is probably the best candidate to allow them to steady the ship and return to electability, Badenoch is likely to fall out with at least half the MPs, Jenrick is too slimey to win over the public, can't see Stride and Tugendhat making the final 3.
Hoping for Badenoch and to trade out Stride, Tugendhat and Cleverly. leading to the question how do you cash out individual positions on Betfair? Want to cash out Tugendhat and hold my bets on Cleverly and Stride. Ideally without laying Tugendhat if that's possible.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
Curious maths and vote splitting got Labour where they are on a tiny % of the vote; similar forces could turn it the other way. FWIW I think next time will possibly depend on whether the nation veers in one of two ways, both possible:
To shore up the centre left mainstream, with Labour and LD being in fact unacknowledged allies (possible because English seats split up handily mostly either Con v Lab or Con v LD and not LD v Lab).
Or to look to a some form of Toryreform party (currently of course splitting votes) under the name Conservative, offering a really different, though thought out and costed (ie not Truss) alternative.
I want neither of these, but I'm a One Nation Tory.
It's a bit early to speculate, but I think it is certain the next election will be a cracker psephologically. It might even offer real alternatives policywise too.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
As for the voters...
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.
Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
Surprise surprise, PB's centrist brigade fiercely object to a political leader who doesn't conform to their world view, even as leader of a right wing party.
Quite. The woke centrist dads don’t like right wingers. Amazing
It’s SO FUCKING BORING
After the last six years, I welcome FUCKING BORING.
As long as it is also reasonable competence.
(Perhaps we need RR to start a debate about VAT on books? THAT would make politics a bit more exciting. )
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
Perhaps it will be another example of the ludicrousness of allowing loony members to have the final say on whom should be the MPs' boss.
Isn't it far more ridiculous to have a group of like-minded individuals form a political party, and use their own money, time and shoe leather to elect a slate of MPs and a leader who don't agree with them on anything and will pretty much do whatever the f*** they like once elected, mainly what all the other parties were doing anyway?
If a right wing Tory leader aligned with the views of the membership is such a ludicrously off-putting concept, let it happen, let it put people off, and let the Tories be a Lib Dem size party - at least people will know what they're voting for. But personally, I don't think those demanding a centrist Tory Party are that confident in the unelectability of the right.
It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with.
I haven’t really tuned in but is there a candidate that will satisfy my “far right” craving?
Isn't one of the main concerns about the far right, particularly in the US, that it seems to be extolling precisely the opposite of a "prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with", and in several cases is actually quite partial to said foreign autocrats?
The world has gone to complete sh1t during the Biden years and there’s a pretty fair case to be made it’s primarily been driven by the world’s autocrats sensing weakness. Far Right Meloni has done a better job of standing up to Putin than certainly Merkel and arguably Sholz. The world is not as simple as you make it out to be.
The far right is no more homogenous than the far left, which also has a number of unreconstructed tankies in its ranks. And Meloni (and PiS in Poland) are closer to traditionalist authoritarian right - Francoists - than the particular form of trolling as politics that is being illustrated daily by simply looking down a list of people Elon Musk is retweeting or Tucker Carlson is interviewing (and in many cases Putin's trolls are amplifying).
I hope you are in the former camp.
The modern “centre” has completely effed up the world, with its appalling debasement of fiat, anti growth fiscal policies, unwillingness to maintain pride in western values or the strength to defend them from nefarious actors.
Weren't you just saying the world is not as simple as I make it out to be? Yet you just posted a reply as sweeping and simplified as it's possible to be.
Likewise the original comment that "It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with" is just polemic. This is what culture war does - takes the most extreme views to be found on the other side of the argument, then treats them as the mainstream opinion of ones opponents and condemns them as such.
We all know the real far right when we see them. One of them was on the air yesterday telling us the real villain of WW2 was Churchill, and the Nazis accidentally killed a few million Jews.
This quite bland list of requirements just led to the hope that I was merely “authoritarian right” like Meloni, rather than of the Holocaust denying far right type. For wanting a stable budget, a focus on productivity growth and a national defence capable of deterring modern fascists like Xi and Putin. And yet I am the polemicist…
There’s a massive unmet political demand for my list. To bring back on topic, are any of the remaining 5 Tory candidates willing to meet this demand? Certainly the US feels a long way away from giving voters such a candidate.
No one is calling you a polemicist except in your own imagination.
What you are "wanting" is fine - many would support it as an ambition but how to achieve it is the question which you seem unwilling to address.
What are these "productivity gains" which drive the growth which you would then use to cut taxes and spending (I disagree with you profoundly on that by the way - I would use growth to clear the deficit and pay down debt long before I'd even think about tax cuts)? What defines a "national defence capable of deterring modern fascists"? It may noy be large numbers of tanks, guns, troops, ships, aircraft or missiles - it may simply be a strong cyber defence, I don't know. Do you?
We need to move beyond platitudes and look at realistic solutions.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
As for the voters...
A truly terrible night for the Conservatives. They are simply continuing to talk amongst themselves, with no recognition that they seem to be stumbling towards oblivion.
Blah, blah, blah. This is NOT 1997. Starmer is NOT Blair but a dull Brownite already whacking up tax to fund union backed public sector workers and cutting pensioners fuel allowance and ending right to buy, hitting private schools with VAT and completely incapable of stopping the boats.
Jenrick is perfectly reasonable and can capitalise on the unpopularity this awful government already has. He also does not have the negatives Priti Patel had who has now gone out (and I admired Priti's toughness but she is not popular with swing voters)
Surprise surprise, PB's centrist brigade fiercely object to a political leader who doesn't conform to their world view, even as leader of a right wing party.
We have had this conversation before - while Jenrick is not to my tastes, I am not convinced he is as appalling or tactically such a terrible choice as the prevailing consensus seems to be on here.
This isn’t 1997. Labour are not masters of all they survey, the Tories face a crisis of their own and need to shore up their right flank, and politics is becoming more polarised. This mantra that is repeated on here about centrists always winning feels to me to be a lot of wishcasting.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
A boost of optimism for us all from "Truss could surprise on the upside"
Seldon has already given the first historical assessment, the last 14 years of Conservative and coalition government was shit and a lost decade and a half for the UK, we await a counter argument from the right. Seldon describes himself as "emotionally on the left, intellectually more on the right", a "C19 liberal" to place him on political spectrum.
Also, basically zero crime here. Eastern Europe still has high trust low crime societies
They have great authentic food and lovely towns with little crime and they are proud of their cultures, not scolded to be ashamed like the Brits, not bullied with endless guilt like the Germans
It is time for Western Europe to learn from the east
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
Curious maths and vote splitting got Labour where they are on a tiny % of the vote; similar forces could turn it the other way. FWIW I think next time will possibly depend on whether the nation veers in one of two ways, both possible:
To shore up the centre left mainstream, with Labour and LD being in fact unacknowledged allies (possible because English seats split up handily mostly either Con v Lab or Con v LD and not LD v Lab).
Or to look to a some form of Toryreform party (currently of course splitting votes) under the name Conservative, offering a really different, though thought out and costed (ie not Truss) alternative.
I want neither of these, but I'm a One Nation Tory.
It's a bit early to speculate, but I think it is certain the next election will be a cracker psephologically. It might even offer real alternatives policywise too.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
There are a number of coalitions that will influence the next election, but one of the most interesting to me is the professional middle class, particularly those in say the mid 20s to early 40s age bracket.
This is a class that seems to hate the Tories at the moment. Many are very socially liberal, many support well funded public services and dislike right wing cultural attack lines. But this is a class who were not old enough to really remember a Labour government (or wouldn’t have been earning a professional salary at that time), and what I think will be very interesting is whether that group stick with their social morals or whether they start to feel like Labour aren’t on their side economically.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
In a sense this is luxury belief. I'm a Tory who voted Labour. I have no doubt at all that it was essential to oust the Tories. I also think it's essential to have a government. What I think about Labour, the only alternative available, makes no difference to the view that ousting the Tories bigly was essential.
Whether Labour grasp the opportunity and the Tories comprehend the problem are two further but different questions.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yes. That’s what I see. Dismay or disgruntlement from the lefties (“is this it??”) and active revulsion from right wingers
Of course it is far too early to judge. Starmer has five years. He may yet have a brilliant clever plan
I can’t see it tho. Where does the election winning growth come from? How does he solve migration and asylum?
I honestly expected a blitz of policies in the first 100 days - and some would be painful but they would be balanced by the clever or daring. I see nothing. Just pleasing the unions and higher taxes and let’s give hypothermia to the old. That’s it
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Most likely they still vote with the Liberals on most bills until the election anyway
According to my son and Canadian daughter in law who live in Vancouver, Trudeau is toast
Yes, it does look as though after a long period of Liberal Government, the Conservatives under Poilievre will win the next Federal election.
The online polling gives the Conservatives a lead of 18-22 points but the weekly Nanos Research poll which is by telephone has a 13 point lead. It's obviously more important to look at what is happening in key provinces such as Ontario and there's not enough provincial polling but what we've seen suggests the anti-Liberal swing could be biggest in the Liberal heartlands.
Poilievre is an interesting figure - whether he's a model for a future British Conservative Prime Minister I'm not certain. He certainly has huge issues with the Bank of Canada and the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Labour could be eviscerated at the next election if they don't turn the economy around (oh sorry, I forgot, if they squander the golden legacy) although you make the error of assuming they will be replaced by the Conservatives.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
A boost of optimism for us all from "Truss could surprise on the upside"
Seldon has already given the first historical assessment, the last 14 years of Conservative and coalition government was shit and a lost decade and a half for the UK, we await a counter argument from the right. Seldon describes himself as "emotionally on the left, intellectually more on the right", a "C19 liberal" to place him on political spectrum.
Seldon outed himself as a publicity hungry shyster over the Truss cancer treatment nonsense. And let's look at current affairs rather than ancient history. No dispute from this bit of the right that the last 14 years were a fuck up of poor government and worse opposition, but sooner than cry over spilt milk the R and L should join forces to address the disaster unfolding before our eyes which is two tier Star-meh.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
Curious maths and vote splitting got Labour where they are on a tiny % of the vote; similar forces could turn it the other way. FWIW I think next time will possibly depend on whether the nation veers in one of two ways, both possible:
To shore up the centre left mainstream, with Labour and LD being in fact unacknowledged allies (possible because English seats split up handily mostly either Con v Lab or Con v LD and not LD v Lab).
Or to look to a some form of Toryreform party (currently of course splitting votes) under the name Conservative, offering a really different, though thought out and costed (ie not Truss) alternative.
I want neither of these, but I'm a One Nation Tory.
It's a bit early to speculate, but I think it is certain the next election will be a cracker psephologically. It might even offer real alternatives policywise too.
A One Nation Tory who voted, um, Labour.
Yes. My guess is there were about 1-2 million of us. Maybe more. I have voted Tory for nearly 50 years. The Tory vote went from 14 m (2019) to just under 7 m (2024). And we were right.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
PM forced to resign, successor forced to resign, successor goes to the country. That's how it worked with Boris's stonking majority.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
Perhaps it will be another example of the ludicrousness of allowing loony members to have the final say on whom should be the MPs' boss.
Isn't it far more ridiculous to have a group of like-minded individuals form a political party, and use their own money, time and shoe leather to elect a slate of MPs and a leader who don't agree with them on anything and will pretty much do whatever the f*** they like once elected, mainly what all the other parties were doing anyway?
If a right wing Tory leader aligned with the views of the membership is such a ludicrously off-putting concept, let it happen, let it put people off, and let the Tories be a Lib Dem size party - at least people will know what they're voting for. But personally, I don't think those demanding a centrist Tory Party are that confident in the unelectability of the right.
It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with.
I haven’t really tuned in but is there a candidate that will satisfy my “far right” craving?
Isn't one of the main concerns about the far right, particularly in the US, that it seems to be extolling precisely the opposite of a "prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with", and in several cases is actually quite partial to said foreign autocrats?
The world has gone to complete sh1t during the Biden years and there’s a pretty fair case to be made it’s primarily been driven by the world’s autocrats sensing weakness. Far Right Meloni has done a better job of standing up to Putin than certainly Merkel and arguably Sholz. The world is not as simple as you make it out to be.
The far right is no more homogenous than the far left, which also has a number of unreconstructed tankies in its ranks. And Meloni (and PiS in Poland) are closer to traditionalist authoritarian right - Francoists - than the particular form of trolling as politics that is being illustrated daily by simply looking down a list of people Elon Musk is retweeting or Tucker Carlson is interviewing (and in many cases Putin's trolls are amplifying).
I hope you are in the former camp.
The modern “centre” has completely effed up the world, with its appalling debasement of fiat, anti growth fiscal policies, unwillingness to maintain pride in western values or the strength to defend them from nefarious actors.
Weren't you just saying the world is not as simple as I make it out to be? Yet you just posted a reply as sweeping and simplified as it's possible to be.
Likewise the original comment that "It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with" is just polemic. This is what culture war does - takes the most extreme views to be found on the other side of the argument, then treats them as the mainstream opinion of ones opponents and condemns them as such.
We all know the real far right when we see them. One of them was on the air yesterday telling us the real villain of WW2 was Churchill, and the Nazis accidentally killed a few million Jews.
This quite bland list of requirements just led to the hope that I was merely “authoritarian right” like Meloni, rather than of the Holocaust denying far right type. For wanting a stable budget, a focus on productivity growth and a national defence capable of deterring modern fascists like Xi and Putin. And yet I am the polemicist…
There’s a massive unmet political demand for my list. To bring back on topic, are any of the remaining 5 Tory candidates willing to meet this demand? Certainly the US feels a long way away from giving voters such a candidate.
No one is calling you a polemicist except in your own imagination.
What you are "wanting" is fine - many would support it as an ambition but how to achieve it is the question which you seem unwilling to address.
What are these "productivity gains" which drive the growth which you would then use to cut taxes and spending (I disagree with you profoundly on that by the way - I would use growth to clear the deficit and pay down debt long before I'd even think about tax cuts)? What defines a "national defence capable of deterring modern fascists"? It may noy be large numbers of tanks, guns, troops, ships, aircraft or missiles - it may simply be a strong cyber defence, I don't know. Do you?
We need to move beyond platitudes and look at realistic solutions.
Whenever you see "productivity" as a solution, it's worth challenging people as to what that really means.
Productivity growth in the UK in the 20th century was often accompanied by a reduction in working hours. It is measured by output per hour, so does not necessarily mean an increase in economic output.
I reckon you could cut 1/2 of the UK workforce down to a 4-day week, make lonely a small impact on economic output and realise massive productivity gains. Is that what people are looking for?
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Labour could be eviscerated at the next election if they don't turn the economy around (oh sorry, I forgot, if they squander the golden legacy) although you make the error of assuming they will be replaced by the Conservatives.
Q3 growth is pencilled in at 0.5-0.7% right now, that would take YTD growth to 1.8-2% with Q4 left which may slowdown a bit due to a small rise in energy prices. Even if it halves in Q4 annual growth is heading to above 2%, that's easily going to be the best growth in western and northern Europe, it may even surpass the US.
The Tories have left behind a very fast growing economy and again, anecdotally at least, people are feeling better off than they were this time last year.
Labour are going to squander the growth on bribes to the public sector and their union mates rather than investing to ensure we have long term high growth rates.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
In 1997 there were 45 Labour seats with majorities under 4000. Now there are 98. This majority is so much smaller than that one in electoral reality, if not seats.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Fear of the unknown is often way worse than reality.
Now I am at a loss as to where the money can be found which is what makes the wait so interesting - because the logical place is CGT and council tax.
But the idea that they can attack pensions is for the birds
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
In a sense this is luxury belief. I'm a Tory who voted Labour. I have no doubt at all that it was essential to oust the Tories. I also think it's essential to have a government. What I think about Labour, the only alternative available, makes no difference to the view that ousting the Tories bigly was essential.
Whether Labour grasp the opportunity and the Tories comprehend the problem are two further but different questions.
But that's the point I'm making, lots of natural supporters abandoned the party, that doesn't mean they're gone forever and the next leader needs to work very hard to win these votes back, rather than relentlessly focusing on chasing Nige.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yes. That’s what I see. Dismay or disgruntlement from the lefties (“is this it??”) and active revulsion from right wingers
Of course it is far too early to judge. Starmer has five years. He may yet have a brilliant clever plan
I can’t see it tho. Where does the election winning growth come from? How does he solve migration and asylum?
I honestly expected a blitz of policies in the first 100 days - and some would be painful but they would be balanced by the clever or daring. I see nothing. Just pleasing the unions and higher taxes and let’s give hypothermia to the old. That’s it
The policy blitz seemed to come via the Telegraph and appears to amount to relaxing strike laws and banning smoking wherever there’s a light breeze.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
PM forced to resign, successor forced to resign, successor goes to the country. That's how it worked with Boris's stonking majority.
Yes; it's very fragile. 33.7% of the vote, and fewer actual votes than Corbyn in both 2017 and 2019 is precarious. But curiously all the parties are precarious. Put together Labour's low vote numbers. the Reform splitting Tory seats, the inevitable fragility of LDs massive numbers and SNP meltdown. The policy issues are all boring us to death, but the subterranean psephology and tactics is remarkable.
And it is not only the UK. Anyone heard how our USA friends are getting on? And France. And Germany. And Italy. And Canada.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Labour could be eviscerated at the next election if they don't turn the economy around (oh sorry, I forgot, if they squander the golden legacy) although you make the error of assuming they will be replaced by the Conservatives.
Q3 growth is pencilled in at 0.5-0.7% right now, that would take YTD growth to 1.8-2% with Q4 left which may slowdown a bit due to a small rise in energy prices. Even if it halves in Q4 annual growth is heading to above 2%, that's easily going to be the best growth in western and northern Europe, it may even surpass the US.
The Tories have left behind a very fast growing economy and again, anecdotally at least, people are feeling better off than they were this time last year.
Labour are going to squander the growth on bribes to the public sector and their union mates rather than investing to ensure we have long term high growth rates.
Annual growth is not the sum of the 4 Quarters growth. Growth in H2 of last year (there was none) is way more important in the annual growth calculation for this year.
Also, basically zero crime here. Eastern Europe still has high trust low crime societies
They have great authentic food and lovely towns with little crime and they are proud of their cultures, not scolded to be ashamed like the Brits, not bullied with endless guilt like the Germans
It is time for Western Europe to learn from the east
Can't see you pulling off honest, impoverished simplicity, somehow.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
Curious maths and vote splitting got Labour where they are on a tiny % of the vote; similar forces could turn it the other way. FWIW I think next time will possibly depend on whether the nation veers in one of two ways, both possible:
To shore up the centre left mainstream, with Labour and LD being in fact unacknowledged allies (possible because English seats split up handily mostly either Con v Lab or Con v LD and not LD v Lab).
Or to look to a some form of Toryreform party (currently of course splitting votes) under the name Conservative, offering a really different, though thought out and costed (ie not Truss) alternative.
I want neither of these, but I'm a One Nation Tory.
It's a bit early to speculate, but I think it is certain the next election will be a cracker psephologically. It might even offer real alternatives policywise too.
A One Nation Tory who voted, um, Labour.
Yes. My guess is there were about 1-2 million of us. Maybe more. I have voted Tory for nearly 50 years. The Tory vote went from 14 m (2019) to just under 7 m (2024). And we were right.
No, you weren't. You made a fucking stupid decision and enabled a socialist.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
Perhaps it will be another example of the ludicrousness of allowing loony members to have the final say on whom should be the MPs' boss.
Isn't it far more ridiculous to have a group of like-minded individuals form a political party, and use their own money, time and shoe leather to elect a slate of MPs and a leader who don't agree with them on anything and will pretty much do whatever the f*** they like once elected, mainly what all the other parties were doing anyway?
If a right wing Tory leader aligned with the views of the membership is such a ludicrously off-putting concept, let it happen, let it put people off, and let the Tories be a Lib Dem size party - at least people will know what they're voting for. But personally, I don't think those demanding a centrist Tory Party are that confident in the unelectability of the right.
It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with.
I haven’t really tuned in but is there a candidate that will satisfy my “far right” craving?
Isn't one of the main concerns about the far right, particularly in the US, that it seems to be extolling precisely the opposite of a "prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with", and in several cases is actually quite partial to said foreign autocrats?
The world has gone to complete sh1t during the Biden years and there’s a pretty fair case to be made it’s primarily been driven by the world’s autocrats sensing weakness. Far Right Meloni has done a better job of standing up to Putin than certainly Merkel and arguably Sholz. The world is not as simple as you make it out to be.
The far right is no more homogenous than the far left, which also has a number of unreconstructed tankies in its ranks. And Meloni (and PiS in Poland) are closer to traditionalist authoritarian right - Francoists - than the particular form of trolling as politics that is being illustrated daily by simply looking down a list of people Elon Musk is retweeting or Tucker Carlson is interviewing (and in many cases Putin's trolls are amplifying).
I hope you are in the former camp.
The modern “centre” has completely effed up the world, with its appalling debasement of fiat, anti growth fiscal policies, unwillingness to maintain pride in western values or the strength to defend them from nefarious actors.
Weren't you just saying the world is not as simple as I make it out to be? Yet you just posted a reply as sweeping and simplified as it's possible to be.
Likewise the original comment that "It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with" is just polemic. This is what culture war does - takes the most extreme views to be found on the other side of the argument, then treats them as the mainstream opinion of ones opponents and condemns them as such.
We all know the real far right when we see them. One of them was on the air yesterday telling us the real villain of WW2 was Churchill, and the Nazis accidentally killed a few million Jews.
This quite bland list of requirements just led to the hope that I was merely “authoritarian right” like Meloni, rather than of the Holocaust denying far right type. For wanting a stable budget, a focus on productivity growth and a national defence capable of deterring modern fascists like Xi and Putin. And yet I am the polemicist…
There’s a massive unmet political demand for my list. To bring back on topic, are any of the remaining 5 Tory candidates willing to meet this demand? Certainly the US feels a long way away from giving voters such a candidate.
No one is calling you a polemicist except in your own imagination.
What you are "wanting" is fine - many would support it as an ambition but how to achieve it is the question which you seem unwilling to address.
What are these "productivity gains" which drive the growth which you would then use to cut taxes and spending (I disagree with you profoundly on that by the way - I would use growth to clear the deficit and pay down debt long before I'd even think about tax cuts)? What defines a "national defence capable of deterring modern fascists"? It may noy be large numbers of tanks, guns, troops, ships, aircraft or missiles - it may simply be a strong cyber defence, I don't know. Do you?
We need to move beyond platitudes and look at realistic solutions.
Whenever you see "productivity" as a solution, it's worth challenging people as to what that really means.
Productivity growth in the UK in the 20th century was often accompanied by a reduction in working hours. It is measured by output per hour, so does not necessarily mean an increase in economic output.
I reckon you could cut 1/2 of the UK workforce down to a 4-day week, make lonely a small impact on economic output and realise massive productivity gains. Is that what people are looking for?
Productivity is largely a function of productive capital per worker. A typewriter is more productive than a pen, a computer even more productive. The trouble is, as a nation, we have not invested in productive capital over recent decades but have "invested" in property. And you have to get past the home-owning gerontocracy to change that.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
A boost of optimism for us all from "Truss could surprise on the upside"
Seldon has already given the first historical assessment, the last 14 years of Conservative and coalition government was shit and a lost decade and a half for the UK, we await a counter argument from the right. Seldon describes himself as "emotionally on the left, intellectually more on the right", a "C19 liberal" to place him on political spectrum.
I'm not really interested in where he 'places himself', I saw him doing crappy anti-Truss pro-Sunak TV interviews to anyone who'd listen, which clearly didn't provide him with enough attention so he was reduced to releasing book with sub-tabloid stories that 'Truss *may* have intended to cancel all cancer treatment on the NHS', which fell apart from contact with reality immediately. Given how emotive cancer is, that was despicable character assassination unworthy of anyone claiming to be a serious author.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
PM forced to resign, successor forced to resign, successor goes to the country. That's how it worked with Boris's stonking majority.
Yes; it's very fragile. 33.7% of the vote, and fewer actual votes than Corbyn in both 2017 and 2019 is precarious. But curiously all the parties are precarious. Put together Labour's low vote numbers. the Reform splitting Tory seats, the inevitable fragility of LDs massive numbers and SNP meltdown. The policy issues are all boring us to death, but the subterranean psephology and tactics is remarkable.
And it is not only the UK. Anyone heard how our USA friends are getting on? And France. And Germany. And Italy. And Canada.
What's interesting to me is that all of the traditional parties seem to be struggling with all the same problems and none of them will work together to formulate a plan to combat illegal immigration. Even within the EU there is so much disagreement on how to handle it with Italy the only country talking sense and more widely across the world countries on the receiving end of illegal immigration need to start discussions on reform the ECHR and UN convention on refugees to take into account modern mobility of people vs when those were written.
A smart Tory leader will go down this route rather than try and go it alone like they did last time with the Rwanda policy. There needs to be a much broader agreement on what to do about illegal immigration and it needs to come from the UK, Germany, France and Italy in Europe so the ECHR can be reformed and no longer used as a shield for deportation by illegal immigrants and foreign criminals.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
In a sense this is luxury belief. I'm a Tory who voted Labour. I have no doubt at all that it was essential to oust the Tories. I also think it's essential to have a government. What I think about Labour, the only alternative available, makes no difference to the view that ousting the Tories bigly was essential.
Whether Labour grasp the opportunity and the Tories comprehend the problem are two further but different questions.
But that's the point I'm making, lots of natural supporters abandoned the party, that doesn't mean they're gone forever and the next leader needs to work very hard to win these votes back, rather than relentlessly focusing on chasing Nige.
Yes. I'd love to vote Tory next time. But it is now up to them to make the case for the millions of centrists who have looked to them for decency, sound money, sound defence, working hard for equality of opportunity, indifference to equality of outcomes, rigour in academia at all levels, competence, integrity, a capitalism with some sort of moral compass and a Burkean sense of the value of our inherited past.
The Grenfell report is a further nail in the coffin of their recent history.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
Not really, the Tories weren't planning to massively jack up spending on pointless state largesse - and they did have a plan to get us back to black.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
PM forced to resign, successor forced to resign, successor goes to the country. That's how it worked with Boris's stonking majority.
Yes; it's very fragile. 33.7% of the vote, and fewer actual votes than Corbyn in both 2017 and 2019 is precarious. But curiously all the parties are precarious. Put together Labour's low vote numbers. the Reform splitting Tory seats, the inevitable fragility of LDs massive numbers and SNP meltdown. The policy issues are all boring us to death, but the subterranean psephology and tactics is remarkable.
And it is not only the UK. Anyone heard how our USA friends are getting on? And France. And Germany. And Italy. And Canada.
What's interesting to me is that all of the traditional parties seem to be struggling with all the same problems and none of them will work together to formulate a plan to combat illegal immigration. Even within the EU there is so much disagreement on how to handle it with Italy the only country talking sense and more widely across the world countries on the receiving end of illegal immigration need to start discussions on reform the ECHR and UN convention on refugees to take into account modern mobility of people vs when those were written.
A smart Tory leader will go down this route rather than try and go it alone like they did last time with the Rwanda policy. There needs to be a much broader agreement on what to do about illegal immigration and it needs to come from the UK, Germany, France and Italy in Europe so the ECHR can be reformed and no longer used as a shield for deportation by illegal immigrants and foreign criminals.
Cameron missed the perfect opportunity to bring this all to a head in 2015 by invoking Article 50 in response to Merkel's unilateral decision. That would have been true statecraft.
Right wing leader gets elected, then Tugendhat joins the Lib Dems or simply resigns Parliament.?
A Braverman win and overtures to reform could have been interesting. Might have seen some lib dem defectors. But I don't really see it with any od the remaining candidates. People will wait and see and, as the sating goes, those who hesitate are lost.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
Curious maths and vote splitting got Labour where they are on a tiny % of the vote; similar forces could turn it the other way. FWIW I think next time will possibly depend on whether the nation veers in one of two ways, both possible:
To shore up the centre left mainstream, with Labour and LD being in fact unacknowledged allies (possible because English seats split up handily mostly either Con v Lab or Con v LD and not LD v Lab).
Or to look to a some form of Toryreform party (currently of course splitting votes) under the name Conservative, offering a really different, though thought out and costed (ie not Truss) alternative.
I want neither of these, but I'm a One Nation Tory.
It's a bit early to speculate, but I think it is certain the next election will be a cracker psephologically. It might even offer real alternatives policywise too.
A One Nation Tory who voted, um, Labour.
Yes. My guess is there were about 1-2 million of us. Maybe more. I have voted Tory for nearly 50 years. The Tory vote went from 14 m (2019) to just under 7 m (2024). And we were right.
No, you weren't. You made a fucking stupid decision and enabled a socialist.
I will never let you forget it.
Thanks. Lear puts it better:
I will have such revenges on you both, That all the world shall—I will do such things,— What they are, yet I know not: but they shall be The terrors of the earth.
None of my business, but I'd have thought a key priority for the Tories is to elect a leader who is a clean pair of hands and cannot be tarred with the brush of corruption and sleaze that tarnished the Johnson years in particular.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
PM forced to resign, successor forced to resign, successor goes to the country. That's how it worked with Boris's stonking majority.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
Perhaps it will be another example of the ludicrousness of allowing loony members to have the final say on whom should be the MPs' boss.
Isn't it far more ridiculous to have a group of like-minded individuals form a political party, and use their own money, time and shoe leather to elect a slate of MPs and a leader who don't agree with them on anything and will pretty much do whatever the f*** they like once elected, mainly what all the other parties were doing anyway?
If a right wing Tory leader aligned with the views of the membership is such a ludicrously off-putting concept, let it happen, let it put people off, and let the Tories be a Lib Dem size party - at least people will know what they're voting for. But personally, I don't think those demanding a centrist Tory Party are that confident in the unelectability of the right.
It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with.
I haven’t really tuned in but is there a candidate that will satisfy my “far right” craving?
Isn't one of the main concerns about the far right, particularly in the US, that it seems to be extolling precisely the opposite of a "prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with", and in several cases is actually quite partial to said foreign autocrats?
The world has gone to complete sh1t during the Biden years and there’s a pretty fair case to be made it’s primarily been driven by the world’s autocrats sensing weakness. Far Right Meloni has done a better job of standing up to Putin than certainly Merkel and arguably Sholz. The world is not as simple as you make it out to be.
The far right is no more homogenous than the far left, which also has a number of unreconstructed tankies in its ranks. And Meloni (and PiS in Poland) are closer to traditionalist authoritarian right - Francoists - than the particular form of trolling as politics that is being illustrated daily by simply looking down a list of people Elon Musk is retweeting or Tucker Carlson is interviewing (and in many cases Putin's trolls are amplifying).
I hope you are in the former camp.
The modern “centre” has completely effed up the world, with its appalling debasement of fiat, anti growth fiscal policies, unwillingness to maintain pride in western values or the strength to defend them from nefarious actors.
Weren't you just saying the world is not as simple as I make it out to be? Yet you just posted a reply as sweeping and simplified as it's possible to be.
Likewise the original comment that "It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with" is just polemic. This is what culture war does - takes the most extreme views to be found on the other side of the argument, then treats them as the mainstream opinion of ones opponents and condemns them as such.
We all know the real far right when we see them. One of them was on the air yesterday telling us the real villain of WW2 was Churchill, and the Nazis accidentally killed a few million Jews.
This quite bland list of requirements just led to the hope that I was merely “authoritarian right” like Meloni, rather than of the Holocaust denying far right type. For wanting a stable budget, a focus on productivity growth and a national defence capable of deterring modern fascists like Xi and Putin. And yet I am the polemicist…
There’s a massive unmet political demand for my list. To bring back on topic, are any of the remaining 5 Tory candidates willing to meet this demand? Certainly the US feels a long way away from giving voters such a candidate.
No one is calling you a polemicist except in your own imagination.
What you are "wanting" is fine - many would support it as an ambition but how to achieve it is the question which you seem unwilling to address.
What are these "productivity gains" which drive the growth which you would then use to cut taxes and spending (I disagree with you profoundly on that by the way - I would use growth to clear the deficit and pay down debt long before I'd even think about tax cuts)? What defines a "national defence capable of deterring modern fascists"? It may noy be large numbers of tanks, guns, troops, ships, aircraft or missiles - it may simply be a strong cyber defence, I don't know. Do you?
We need to move beyond platitudes and look at realistic solutions.
Whenever you see "productivity" as a solution, it's worth challenging people as to what that really means.
Productivity growth in the UK in the 20th century was often accompanied by a reduction in working hours. It is measured by output per hour, so does not necessarily mean an increase in economic output.
I reckon you could cut 1/2 of the UK workforce down to a 4-day week, make lonely a small impact on economic output and realise massive productivity gains. Is that what people are looking for?
Productivity is largely a function of productive capital per worker. A typewriter is more productive than a pen, a computer even more productive. The trouble is, as a nation, we have not invested in productive capital over recent decades but have "invested" in property. And you have to get past the home-owning gerontocracy to change that.
I don't disagree but I can't help but the think that technological developments since 2010 must have boosted productivity, even if we can't see it in the stats. Consider even just mobile phones and better internet.
Another is commercial traffic - that's increased by 40% since 2008.
It's areas where it is very difficult to boost productivity, like the courts, NHS, customer service over the phone, where people get most frustrated. I think part of that is because other parts of our lives have become relatively so much smoother and easier.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
You don't like the answer but it involves cutting state employment by a substantial number and completely reworking the benefits system. There is no path to a balanced budget while 3m people sit in sickness benefits and 1/5 people are on the state payroll, the other 4 people simply don't pay enough tax to cover it all.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
Perhaps it will be another example of the ludicrousness of allowing loony members to have the final say on whom should be the MPs' boss.
Isn't it far more ridiculous to have a group of like-minded individuals form a political party, and use their own money, time and shoe leather to elect a slate of MPs and a leader who don't agree with them on anything and will pretty much do whatever the f*** they like once elected, mainly what all the other parties were doing anyway?
If a right wing Tory leader aligned with the views of the membership is such a ludicrously off-putting concept, let it happen, let it put people off, and let the Tories be a Lib Dem size party - at least people will know what they're voting for. But personally, I don't think those demanding a centrist Tory Party are that confident in the unelectability of the right.
It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with.
I haven’t really tuned in but is there a candidate that will satisfy my “far right” craving?
Isn't one of the main concerns about the far right, particularly in the US, that it seems to be extolling precisely the opposite of a "prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with", and in several cases is actually quite partial to said foreign autocrats?
The world has gone to complete sh1t during the Biden years and there’s a pretty fair case to be made it’s primarily been driven by the world’s autocrats sensing weakness. Far Right Meloni has done a better job of standing up to Putin than certainly Merkel and arguably Sholz. The world is not as simple as you make it out to be.
The far right is no more homogenous than the far left, which also has a number of unreconstructed tankies in its ranks. And Meloni (and PiS in Poland) are closer to traditionalist authoritarian right - Francoists - than the particular form of trolling as politics that is being illustrated daily by simply looking down a list of people Elon Musk is retweeting or Tucker Carlson is interviewing (and in many cases Putin's trolls are amplifying).
I hope you are in the former camp.
The modern “centre” has completely effed up the world, with its appalling debasement of fiat, anti growth fiscal policies, unwillingness to maintain pride in western values or the strength to defend them from nefarious actors.
Weren't you just saying the world is not as simple as I make it out to be? Yet you just posted a reply as sweeping and simplified as it's possible to be.
Likewise the original comment that "It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with" is just polemic. This is what culture war does - takes the most extreme views to be found on the other side of the argument, then treats them as the mainstream opinion of ones opponents and condemns them as such.
We all know the real far right when we see them. One of them was on the air yesterday telling us the real villain of WW2 was Churchill, and the Nazis accidentally killed a few million Jews.
This quite bland list of requirements just led to the hope that I was merely “authoritarian right” like Meloni, rather than of the Holocaust denying far right type. For wanting a stable budget, a focus on productivity growth and a national defence capable of deterring modern fascists like Xi and Putin. And yet I am the polemicist…
There’s a massive unmet political demand for my list. To bring back on topic, are any of the remaining 5 Tory candidates willing to meet this demand? Certainly the US feels a long way away from giving voters such a candidate.
No one is calling you a polemicist except in your own imagination.
What you are "wanting" is fine - many would support it as an ambition but how to achieve it is the question which you seem unwilling to address.
What are these "productivity gains" which drive the growth which you would then use to cut taxes and spending (I disagree with you profoundly on that by the way - I would use growth to clear the deficit and pay down debt long before I'd even think about tax cuts)? What defines a "national defence capable of deterring modern fascists"? It may noy be large numbers of tanks, guns, troops, ships, aircraft or missiles - it may simply be a strong cyber defence, I don't know. Do you?
We need to move beyond platitudes and look at realistic solutions.
Whenever you see "productivity" as a solution, it's worth challenging people as to what that really means.
Productivity growth in the UK in the 20th century was often accompanied by a reduction in working hours. It is measured by output per hour, so does not necessarily mean an increase in economic output.
I reckon you could cut 1/2 of the UK workforce down to a 4-day week, make lonely a small impact on economic output and realise massive productivity gains. Is that what people are looking for?
Productivity is largely a function of productive capital per worker. A typewriter is more productive than a pen, a computer even more productive. The trouble is, as a nation, we have not invested in productive capital over recent decades but have "invested" in property. And you have to get past the home-owning gerontocracy to change that.
I don't disagree but I can't help but the think that technological developments since 2010 must have boosted productivity, even if we can't see it in the stats. Consider even just mobile phones and better internet.
Another is commercial traffic - that's increased by 40% since 2008.
It's areas where it is very difficult to boost productivity, like the courts, NHS, customer service over the phone, where people get most frustrated. I think part of that is because other parts of our lives have become relatively so much smoother and easier.
I suspect mobile phones have reduced, not improved, productivity. Everywhere I go I see folk who are allegedly working scrolling through nonsense on their phones.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
You don't like the answer but it involves cutting state employment by a substantial number and completely reworking the benefits system. There is no path to a balanced budget while 3m people sit in sickness benefits and 1/5 people are on the state payroll, the other 4 people simply don't pay enough tax to cover it all.
Or going the other way and boosting tax to French levels. The UK has a relatively low tax burden compared to many other rich countries.
(Not to say that it's a better solution. Just that it's not unusual to do it the other way round).
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
If what you say is true why do you think the Tories will be called to govern rather than having an endless rotation of new Labour PMs. That's what the Tories pioneered after all.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
Perhaps it will be another example of the ludicrousness of allowing loony members to have the final say on whom should be the MPs' boss.
Isn't it far more ridiculous to have a group of like-minded individuals form a political party, and use their own money, time and shoe leather to elect a slate of MPs and a leader who don't agree with them on anything and will pretty much do whatever the f*** they like once elected, mainly what all the other parties were doing anyway?
If a right wing Tory leader aligned with the views of the membership is such a ludicrously off-putting concept, let it happen, let it put people off, and let the Tories be a Lib Dem size party - at least people will know what they're voting for. But personally, I don't think those demanding a centrist Tory Party are that confident in the unelectability of the right.
It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with.
I haven’t really tuned in but is there a candidate that will satisfy my “far right” craving?
Isn't one of the main concerns about the far right, particularly in the US, that it seems to be extolling precisely the opposite of a "prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with", and in several cases is actually quite partial to said foreign autocrats?
The world has gone to complete sh1t during the Biden years and there’s a pretty fair case to be made it’s primarily been driven by the world’s autocrats sensing weakness. Far Right Meloni has done a better job of standing up to Putin than certainly Merkel and arguably Sholz. The world is not as simple as you make it out to be.
The far right is no more homogenous than the far left, which also has a number of unreconstructed tankies in its ranks. And Meloni (and PiS in Poland) are closer to traditionalist authoritarian right - Francoists - than the particular form of trolling as politics that is being illustrated daily by simply looking down a list of people Elon Musk is retweeting or Tucker Carlson is interviewing (and in many cases Putin's trolls are amplifying).
I hope you are in the former camp.
The modern “centre” has completely effed up the world, with its appalling debasement of fiat, anti growth fiscal policies, unwillingness to maintain pride in western values or the strength to defend them from nefarious actors.
Weren't you just saying the world is not as simple as I make it out to be? Yet you just posted a reply as sweeping and simplified as it's possible to be.
Likewise the original comment that "It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with" is just polemic. This is what culture war does - takes the most extreme views to be found on the other side of the argument, then treats them as the mainstream opinion of ones opponents and condemns them as such.
We all know the real far right when we see them. One of them was on the air yesterday telling us the real villain of WW2 was Churchill, and the Nazis accidentally killed a few million Jews.
This quite bland list of requirements just led to the hope that I was merely “authoritarian right” like Meloni, rather than of the Holocaust denying far right type. For wanting a stable budget, a focus on productivity growth and a national defence capable of deterring modern fascists like Xi and Putin. And yet I am the polemicist…
There’s a massive unmet political demand for my list. To bring back on topic, are any of the remaining 5 Tory candidates willing to meet this demand? Certainly the US feels a long way away from giving voters such a candidate.
No one is calling you a polemicist except in your own imagination.
What you are "wanting" is fine - many would support it as an ambition but how to achieve it is the question which you seem unwilling to address.
What are these "productivity gains" which drive the growth which you would then use to cut taxes and spending (I disagree with you profoundly on that by the way - I would use growth to clear the deficit and pay down debt long before I'd even think about tax cuts)? What defines a "national defence capable of deterring modern fascists"? It may noy be large numbers of tanks, guns, troops, ships, aircraft or missiles - it may simply be a strong cyber defence, I don't know. Do you?
We need to move beyond platitudes and look at realistic solutions.
UK defence spending is high. In Europe, the only countries with higher spending as a proportion of GDP are Russia, Ukraine (natch), Poland, Greece and (only just) Finland. In terms of absolute budget, we’re 6th in the whole world.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
Curious maths and vote splitting got Labour where they are on a tiny % of the vote; similar forces could turn it the other way. FWIW I think next time will possibly depend on whether the nation veers in one of two ways, both possible:
To shore up the centre left mainstream, with Labour and LD being in fact unacknowledged allies (possible because English seats split up handily mostly either Con v Lab or Con v LD and not LD v Lab).
Or to look to a some form of Toryreform party (currently of course splitting votes) under the name Conservative, offering a really different, though thought out and costed (ie not Truss) alternative.
I want neither of these, but I'm a One Nation Tory.
It's a bit early to speculate, but I think it is certain the next election will be a cracker psephologically. It might even offer real alternatives policywise too.
A One Nation Tory who voted, um, Labour.
Yes. My guess is there were about 1-2 million of us. Maybe more. I have voted Tory for nearly 50 years. The Tory vote went from 14 m (2019) to just under 7 m (2024). And we were right.
No, you weren't. You made a fucking stupid decision and enabled a socialist.
I will never let you forget it.
As opposed to the incompetent Blairite-lite called R. Sunak?
The Tories had 9 years to show they could be Tories. They failed massively.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
You don't like the answer but it involves cutting state employment by a substantial number and completely reworking the benefits system. There is no path to a balanced budget while 3m people sit in sickness benefits and 1/5 people are on the state payroll, the other 4 people simply don't pay enough tax to cover it all.
Or going the other way and boosting tax to French levels. The UK has a relatively low tax burden compared to many other rich countries.
(Not to say that it's a better solution. Just that it's not unusual to do it the other way round).
And tie the country into a permanent low growth trap. It's a terrible idea.
Adrian Newey given Aston Martin shares in mutimillion-pound switch deal
Mastermind behind 12 drivers’ championships and 13 constructors’ titles for Williams, McLaren and Red Bull to jump ship next season as British team convince 65-year-old of their project
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
Not really, the Tories weren't planning to massively jack up spending on pointless state largesse - and they did have a plan to get us back to black.
Did they bollocks. They put off having any realistic fiscal plan to the other side of the election, exactly as Starmer did.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
Perhaps it will be another example of the ludicrousness of allowing loony members to have the final say on whom should be the MPs' boss.
Isn't it far more ridiculous to have a group of like-minded individuals form a political party, and use their own money, time and shoe leather to elect a slate of MPs and a leader who don't agree with them on anything and will pretty much do whatever the f*** they like once elected, mainly what all the other parties were doing anyway?
If a right wing Tory leader aligned with the views of the membership is such a ludicrously off-putting concept, let it happen, let it put people off, and let the Tories be a Lib Dem size party - at least people will know what they're voting for. But personally, I don't think those demanding a centrist Tory Party are that confident in the unelectability of the right.
It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with.
I haven’t really tuned in but is there a candidate that will satisfy my “far right” craving?
Isn't one of the main concerns about the far right, particularly in the US, that it seems to be extolling precisely the opposite of a "prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with", and in several cases is actually quite partial to said foreign autocrats?
The world has gone to complete sh1t during the Biden years and there’s a pretty fair case to be made it’s primarily been driven by the world’s autocrats sensing weakness. Far Right Meloni has done a better job of standing up to Putin than certainly Merkel and arguably Sholz. The world is not as simple as you make it out to be.
The far right is no more homogenous than the far left, which also has a number of unreconstructed tankies in its ranks. And Meloni (and PiS in Poland) are closer to traditionalist authoritarian right - Francoists - than the particular form of trolling as politics that is being illustrated daily by simply looking down a list of people Elon Musk is retweeting or Tucker Carlson is interviewing (and in many cases Putin's trolls are amplifying).
I hope you are in the former camp.
The modern “centre” has completely effed up the world, with its appalling debasement of fiat, anti growth fiscal policies, unwillingness to maintain pride in western values or the strength to defend them from nefarious actors.
Weren't you just saying the world is not as simple as I make it out to be? Yet you just posted a reply as sweeping and simplified as it's possible to be.
Likewise the original comment that "It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with" is just polemic. This is what culture war does - takes the most extreme views to be found on the other side of the argument, then treats them as the mainstream opinion of ones opponents and condemns them as such.
We all know the real far right when we see them. One of them was on the air yesterday telling us the real villain of WW2 was Churchill, and the Nazis accidentally killed a few million Jews.
This quite bland list of requirements just led to the hope that I was merely “authoritarian right” like Meloni, rather than of the Holocaust denying far right type. For wanting a stable budget, a focus on productivity growth and a national defence capable of deterring modern fascists like Xi and Putin. And yet I am the polemicist…
There’s a massive unmet political demand for my list. To bring back on topic, are any of the remaining 5 Tory candidates willing to meet this demand? Certainly the US feels a long way away from giving voters such a candidate.
No one is calling you a polemicist except in your own imagination.
What you are "wanting" is fine - many would support it as an ambition but how to achieve it is the question which you seem unwilling to address.
What are these "productivity gains" which drive the growth which you would then use to cut taxes and spending (I disagree with you profoundly on that by the way - I would use growth to clear the deficit and pay down debt long before I'd even think about tax cuts)? What defines a "national defence capable of deterring modern fascists"? It may noy be large numbers of tanks, guns, troops, ships, aircraft or missiles - it may simply be a strong cyber defence, I don't know. Do you?
We need to move beyond platitudes and look at realistic solutions.
UK defence spending is high. In Europe, the only countries with higher spending as a proportion of GDP are Russia, Ukraine (natch), Poland, Greece and (only just) Finland. In terms of absolute budget, we’re 6th in the whole world.
And fairly average spending on healthcare - lower than the US, Germany and France. We're right to be concerned about these issues in the UK, but wrong to think there is something especially British about them.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
If what you say is true why do you think the Tories will be called to govern rather than having an endless rotation of new Labour PMs. That's what the Tories pioneered after all.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
PM forced to resign, successor forced to resign, successor goes to the country. That's how it worked with Boris's stonking majority.
Yes; it's very fragile. 33.7% of the vote, and fewer actual votes than Corbyn in both 2017 and 2019 is precarious. But curiously all the parties are precarious. Put together Labour's low vote numbers. the Reform splitting Tory seats, the inevitable fragility of LDs massive numbers and SNP meltdown. The policy issues are all boring us to death, but the subterranean psephology and tactics is remarkable.
And it is not only the UK. Anyone heard how our USA friends are getting on? And France. And Germany. And Italy. And Canada.
What's interesting to me is that all of the traditional parties seem to be struggling with all the same problems and none of them will work together to formulate a plan to combat illegal immigration. Even within the EU there is so much disagreement on how to handle it with Italy the only country talking sense and more widely across the world countries on the receiving end of illegal immigration need to start discussions on reform the ECHR and UN convention on refugees to take into account modern mobility of people vs when those were written.
A smart Tory leader will go down this route rather than try and go it alone like they did last time with the Rwanda policy. There needs to be a much broader agreement on what to do about illegal immigration and it needs to come from the UK, Germany, France and Italy in Europe so the ECHR can be reformed and no longer used as a shield for deportation by illegal immigrants and foreign criminals.
Established elites across Europe and the West still think it's ick to deal with illegal/mass immigration, because they'd both be shunned in their social circles and they also benefit from it economically in their personal ones.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
You don't like the answer but it involves cutting state employment by a substantial number and completely reworking the benefits system. There is no path to a balanced budget while 3m people sit in sickness benefits and 1/5 people are on the state payroll, the other 4 people simply don't pay enough tax to cover it all.
Or going the other way and boosting tax to French levels. The UK has a relatively low tax burden compared to many other rich countries.
(Not to say that it's a better solution. Just that it's not unusual to do it the other way round).
And tie the country into a permanent low growth trap. It's a terrible idea.
Aren't the UK and France scoring roughly the same on GDP growth? The only country doing really well is the US, with massive federal investment in infrastructure and climate mitigation.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
Curious maths and vote splitting got Labour where they are on a tiny % of the vote; similar forces could turn it the other way. FWIW I think next time will possibly depend on whether the nation veers in one of two ways, both possible:
To shore up the centre left mainstream, with Labour and LD being in fact unacknowledged allies (possible because English seats split up handily mostly either Con v Lab or Con v LD and not LD v Lab).
Or to look to a some form of Toryreform party (currently of course splitting votes) under the name Conservative, offering a really different, though thought out and costed (ie not Truss) alternative.
I want neither of these, but I'm a One Nation Tory.
It's a bit early to speculate, but I think it is certain the next election will be a cracker psephologically. It might even offer real alternatives policywise too.
A One Nation Tory who voted, um, Labour.
Yes. My guess is there were about 1-2 million of us. Maybe more. I have voted Tory for nearly 50 years. The Tory vote went from 14 m (2019) to just under 7 m (2024). And we were right.
No, you weren't. You made a fucking stupid decision and enabled a socialist.
I will never let you forget it.
As opposed to the incompetent Blairite-lite called R. Sunak?
The Tories had 9 years to show they could be Tories. They failed massively.
Quite. But don't deny CR a shred of redemption for his support of the (ex) Dismal Decline Manager.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
Not really, the Tories weren't planning to massively jack up spending on pointless state largesse - and they did have a plan to get us back to black.
Did they bollocks. They put off having any realistic fiscal plan to the other side of the election, exactly as Starmer did.
Nonsense. More hysteria from you.
There was a fiscal plan to have debt dropping as a %GDP by 2028-29 when the tax thresholds would be unfrozen as well.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
Curious maths and vote splitting got Labour where they are on a tiny % of the vote; similar forces could turn it the other way. FWIW I think next time will possibly depend on whether the nation veers in one of two ways, both possible:
To shore up the centre left mainstream, with Labour and LD being in fact unacknowledged allies (possible because English seats split up handily mostly either Con v Lab or Con v LD and not LD v Lab).
Or to look to a some form of Toryreform party (currently of course splitting votes) under the name Conservative, offering a really different, though thought out and costed (ie not Truss) alternative.
I want neither of these, but I'm a One Nation Tory.
It's a bit early to speculate, but I think it is certain the next election will be a cracker psephologically. It might even offer real alternatives policywise too.
A One Nation Tory who voted, um, Labour.
Yes. My guess is there were about 1-2 million of us. Maybe more. I have voted Tory for nearly 50 years. The Tory vote went from 14 m (2019) to just under 7 m (2024). And we were right.
No, you weren't. You made a fucking stupid decision and enabled a socialist.
I will never let you forget it.
As opposed to the incompetent Blairite-lite called R. Sunak?
The Tories had 9 years to show they could be Tories. They failed massively.
I disagree. Sunak was cutting tax towards the end, as far as he could in fiscal rules.
He had to deal with the aftermath of Covid, Boris and the Trussterfuck in the constraints of economic reality.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
PM forced to resign, successor forced to resign, successor goes to the country. That's how it worked with Boris's stonking majority.
Yes; it's very fragile. 33.7% of the vote, and fewer actual votes than Corbyn in both 2017 and 2019 is precarious. But curiously all the parties are precarious. Put together Labour's low vote numbers. the Reform splitting Tory seats, the inevitable fragility of LDs massive numbers and SNP meltdown. The policy issues are all boring us to death, but the subterranean psephology and tactics is remarkable.
And it is not only the UK. Anyone heard how our USA friends are getting on? And France. And Germany. And Italy. And Canada.
What's interesting to me is that all of the traditional parties seem to be struggling with all the same problems and none of them will work together to formulate a plan to combat illegal immigration. Even within the EU there is so much disagreement on how to handle it with Italy the only country talking sense and more widely across the world countries on the receiving end of illegal immigration need to start discussions on reform the ECHR and UN convention on refugees to take into account modern mobility of people vs when those were written.
A smart Tory leader will go down this route rather than try and go it alone like they did last time with the Rwanda policy. There needs to be a much broader agreement on what to do about illegal immigration and it needs to come from the UK, Germany, France and Italy in Europe so the ECHR can be reformed and no longer used as a shield for deportation by illegal immigrants and foreign criminals.
Established elites across Europe and the West still think it's ick to deal with illegal/mass immigration, because they'd both be shunned in their social circles and they also benefit from it economically in their personal ones.
This is risible nonsense. Some bizarre culture war/great replacement theory mash-up. Governments across Europe and the West are working to tackle illegal immigration. The commentariat spend their whole time talking about immigration. And you, Casino, as a very high earner who sends his kids to private school, you are the elite.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
Not really, the Tories weren't planning to massively jack up spending on pointless state largesse - and they did have a plan to get us back to black.
Did they bollocks. They put off having any realistic fiscal plan to the other side of the election, exactly as Starmer did.
For example not updating the spending review. The salted the eath and laid heffalump traps rather than sort out the finances.
Reeves needs to stop whinging about it though. No one likes a moaner. She needs to pull out a few rabbits from the hat too. There is a bit of theatre to a budget or it turns into a pasty tax fiasco. Giving WFP to those on UC for example.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
Curious maths and vote splitting got Labour where they are on a tiny % of the vote; similar forces could turn it the other way. FWIW I think next time will possibly depend on whether the nation veers in one of two ways, both possible:
To shore up the centre left mainstream, with Labour and LD being in fact unacknowledged allies (possible because English seats split up handily mostly either Con v Lab or Con v LD and not LD v Lab).
Or to look to a some form of Toryreform party (currently of course splitting votes) under the name Conservative, offering a really different, though thought out and costed (ie not Truss) alternative.
I want neither of these, but I'm a One Nation Tory.
It's a bit early to speculate, but I think it is certain the next election will be a cracker psephologically. It might even offer real alternatives policywise too.
A One Nation Tory who voted, um, Labour.
Yes. My guess is there were about 1-2 million of us. Maybe more. I have voted Tory for nearly 50 years. The Tory vote went from 14 m (2019) to just under 7 m (2024). And we were right.
No, you weren't. You made a fucking stupid decision and enabled a socialist.
I will never let you forget it.
Thanks. Lear puts it better:
I will have such revenges on you both, That all the world shall—I will do such things,— What they are, yet I know not: but they shall be The terrors of the earth.
I don't mind floating voters deciding to vote Labour. I can understand centrists deciding differently.
But what really grates my goat is people who have the temerity to claim to be loyal lifelong Tories who, when the chips are down, actually voter Labour without a flicker.
They're all weak - but then Starmer is terrible and has an appallingly untalented cabinet. And they only have to beat the opposition, not the love child of Thatcher and Abe Lincoln
I'm not sure I care if Jenrick can build a good team and do the job.
He needs to not be solely obsessed with Rwanda/boats, though; that's important, and a big issue, but there will be huge opportunities to regain lots of DNV Tories and LD switchers on quasi-socialist economics.
I'd keep Hunt as Shadow Chancellor and go hard on Labour on tax & spend.
I think while in government the Rwanda policy only served to highlight how badly the government were failing on reducing those arrivals. Now that the Tories aren't in government they will need to work the boats angle hard to drive Labour voters to Reform and Reform voters back to the Tories. I think they also need an answer on winning back Lib Dem voters in the south of England but I'm not sure Jenrick would be well placed for it.
Are there really tonnes of Boris Johnson 'Get Brexit Done' 2019 fans who've gone over to the Lib Dems? It has never struck me as likely. Surely Lib Dem growth is mostly tactical Labour voters. And why go after them, when they represent a tiny number - Lib Dems underpolled Reform.
Because they hold 72 seats, most (but not all) of which had pretty low Reform totals. The Tories will inevitably win a lot of those back in due course. I don't see Reform displacing them as the main challengers in blue wall seats. But the Tories will certainly need to look competent for a bit first.
As to what they should do now. I think they should have a bit of fun. It's too early to start trying to elect a leader who looks like a PM in waiting. Have a go with Kemi Badenoch. She will entertain the base, give Labour some discomfort in PMQs, and keep the party in the headlines. I find her unappealing and antagonistic as a politician but that needn't matter yet, and I'm not the target audience.
What Conservatives can embrace now, which we've already seen on PB, is the joy of being in opposition. You can no longer be blamed for everything, that's someone else's problem. You can focus on policies and platforms that you really believe in, and you can really lay into the new government. It's a sort of release. It can be electorally disastrous - see both Corbyn and Swinson in 2019 - but quite cathartic. I would say they should lean into that for now. Do the whole triangulation and hugging of huskies later if they need to.
The Conservatives are likely to be called upon to govern very soon. I'm not saying this as some sort of Casino Royalesque bravado; I didn't even vote for them. SKS is genuinely a bit shit. He may also have fairly significant skeletons that may or may not have an impact on his already severely waning popularity.
But Labour have a Commons majority of 9,823. How on earth are they toppled outside war/plague/civil strife?
Curious maths and vote splitting got Labour where they are on a tiny % of the vote; similar forces could turn it the other way. FWIW I think next time will possibly depend on whether the nation veers in one of two ways, both possible:
To shore up the centre left mainstream, with Labour and LD being in fact unacknowledged allies (possible because English seats split up handily mostly either Con v Lab or Con v LD and not LD v Lab).
Or to look to a some form of Toryreform party (currently of course splitting votes) under the name Conservative, offering a really different, though thought out and costed (ie not Truss) alternative.
I want neither of these, but I'm a One Nation Tory.
It's a bit early to speculate, but I think it is certain the next election will be a cracker psephologically. It might even offer real alternatives policywise too.
A One Nation Tory who voted, um, Labour.
Yes. My guess is there were about 1-2 million of us. Maybe more. I have voted Tory for nearly 50 years. The Tory vote went from 14 m (2019) to just under 7 m (2024). And we were right.
No, you weren't. You made a fucking stupid decision and enabled a socialist.
I will never let you forget it.
As opposed to the incompetent Blairite-lite called R. Sunak?
The Tories had 9 years to show they could be Tories. They failed massively.
I disagree. Sunak was cutting tax towards the end, as far as he could in fiscal rules.
He had to deal with the aftermath of Covid, Boris and the Trussterfuck in the constraints of economic reality.
It's not surprising to me that we've had the highest growth in years (excluding the COVID recovery) after we've bedded in full expensing for businesses and the 4p NI cut. Both of those tax cuts have generated growth in an otherwise moribund economy and now Labour are going to throw it away to give their union paymasters their danegeld.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
Not really, the Tories weren't planning to massively jack up spending on pointless state largesse - and they did have a plan to get us back to black.
Did they bollocks. They put off having any realistic fiscal plan to the other side of the election, exactly as Starmer did.
Nonsense. More hysteria from you.
There was a fiscal plan to have debt dropping as a %GDP by 2028-29 when the tax thresholds would be unfrozen as well.
Rubbish. There was a conspiracy between both parties not to say how they intended to deal with our fiscal problems. Hunt's plans implied huge cuts in spending, but he was careful not to acknowledge that. Or say where those cuts might fall.
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
Perhaps it will be another example of the ludicrousness of allowing loony members to have the final say on whom should be the MPs' boss.
Isn't it far more ridiculous to have a group of like-minded individuals form a political party, and use their own money, time and shoe leather to elect a slate of MPs and a leader who don't agree with them on anything and will pretty much do whatever the f*** they like once elected, mainly what all the other parties were doing anyway?
If a right wing Tory leader aligned with the views of the membership is such a ludicrously off-putting concept, let it happen, let it put people off, and let the Tories be a Lib Dem size party - at least people will know what they're voting for. But personally, I don't think those demanding a centrist Tory Party are that confident in the unelectability of the right.
It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with.
I haven’t really tuned in but is there a candidate that will satisfy my “far right” craving?
Isn't one of the main concerns about the far right, particularly in the US, that it seems to be extolling precisely the opposite of a "prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with", and in several cases is actually quite partial to said foreign autocrats?
The world has gone to complete sh1t during the Biden years and there’s a pretty fair case to be made it’s primarily been driven by the world’s autocrats sensing weakness. Far Right Meloni has done a better job of standing up to Putin than certainly Merkel and arguably Sholz. The world is not as simple as you make it out to be.
The far right is no more homogenous than the far left, which also has a number of unreconstructed tankies in its ranks. And Meloni (and PiS in Poland) are closer to traditionalist authoritarian right - Francoists - than the particular form of trolling as politics that is being illustrated daily by simply looking down a list of people Elon Musk is retweeting or Tucker Carlson is interviewing (and in many cases Putin's trolls are amplifying).
I hope you are in the former camp.
The modern “centre” has completely effed up the world, with its appalling debasement of fiat, anti growth fiscal policies, unwillingness to maintain pride in western values or the strength to defend them from nefarious actors.
Weren't you just saying the world is not as simple as I make it out to be? Yet you just posted a reply as sweeping and simplified as it's possible to be.
Likewise the original comment that "It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with" is just polemic. This is what culture war does - takes the most extreme views to be found on the other side of the argument, then treats them as the mainstream opinion of ones opponents and condemns them as such.
We all know the real far right when we see them. One of them was on the air yesterday telling us the real villain of WW2 was Churchill, and the Nazis accidentally killed a few million Jews.
This quite bland list of requirements just led to the hope that I was merely “authoritarian right” like Meloni, rather than of the Holocaust denying far right type. For wanting a stable budget, a focus on productivity growth and a national defence capable of deterring modern fascists like Xi and Putin. And yet I am the polemicist…
There’s a massive unmet political demand for my list. To bring back on topic, are any of the remaining 5 Tory candidates willing to meet this demand? Certainly the US feels a long way away from giving voters such a candidate.
No one is calling you a polemicist except in your own imagination.
What you are "wanting" is fine - many would support it as an ambition but how to achieve it is the question which you seem unwilling to address.
What are these "productivity gains" which drive the growth which you would then use to cut taxes and spending (I disagree with you profoundly on that by the way - I would use growth to clear the deficit and pay down debt long before I'd even think about tax cuts)? What defines a "national defence capable of deterring modern fascists"? It may noy be large numbers of tanks, guns, troops, ships, aircraft or missiles - it may simply be a strong cyber defence, I don't know. Do you?
We need to move beyond platitudes and look at realistic solutions.
Whenever you see "productivity" as a solution, it's worth challenging people as to what that really means.
Productivity growth in the UK in the 20th century was often accompanied by a reduction in working hours. It is measured by output per hour, so does not necessarily mean an increase in economic output.
I reckon you could cut 1/2 of the UK workforce down to a 4-day week, make lonely a small impact on economic output and realise massive productivity gains. Is that what people are looking for?
Productivity is largely a function of productive capital per worker. A typewriter is more productive than a pen, a computer even more productive. The trouble is, as a nation, we have not invested in productive capital over recent decades but have "invested" in property. And you have to get past the home-owning gerontocracy to change that.
I don't disagree but I can't help but the think that technological developments since 2010 must have boosted productivity, even if we can't see it in the stats. Consider even just mobile phones and better internet.
Another is commercial traffic - that's increased by 40% since 2008.
It's areas where it is very difficult to boost productivity, like the courts, NHS, customer service over the phone, where people get most frustrated. I think part of that is because other parts of our lives have become relatively so much smoother and easier.
I suspect mobile phones have reduced, not improved, productivity. Everywhere I go I see folk who are allegedly working scrolling through nonsense on their phones.
Are you referring to your physical form or to PB specifically?
If we had to cast a generic Tory with no interesting characteristic, the casting agency would pick him, somehow managing to be both bland and off putting. A curious combo. Ed Daveys ideal choice.
I guess he’s ambitious? What’s the appeal?
The MPs might like him, I doubt the membership will.
Perhaps it will be another example of the ludicrousness of allowing loony members to have the final say on whom should be the MPs' boss.
Isn't it far more ridiculous to have a group of like-minded individuals form a political party, and use their own money, time and shoe leather to elect a slate of MPs and a leader who don't agree with them on anything and will pretty much do whatever the f*** they like once elected, mainly what all the other parties were doing anyway?
If a right wing Tory leader aligned with the views of the membership is such a ludicrously off-putting concept, let it happen, let it put people off, and let the Tories be a Lib Dem size party - at least people will know what they're voting for. But personally, I don't think those demanding a centrist Tory Party are that confident in the unelectability of the right.
It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with.
I haven’t really tuned in but is there a candidate that will satisfy my “far right” craving?
Isn't one of the main concerns about the far right, particularly in the US, that it seems to be extolling precisely the opposite of a "prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with", and in several cases is actually quite partial to said foreign autocrats?
The world has gone to complete sh1t during the Biden years and there’s a pretty fair case to be made it’s primarily been driven by the world’s autocrats sensing weakness. Far Right Meloni has done a better job of standing up to Putin than certainly Merkel and arguably Sholz. The world is not as simple as you make it out to be.
The far right is no more homogenous than the far left, which also has a number of unreconstructed tankies in its ranks. And Meloni (and PiS in Poland) are closer to traditionalist authoritarian right - Francoists - than the particular form of trolling as politics that is being illustrated daily by simply looking down a list of people Elon Musk is retweeting or Tucker Carlson is interviewing (and in many cases Putin's trolls are amplifying).
I hope you are in the former camp.
The modern “centre” has completely effed up the world, with its appalling debasement of fiat, anti growth fiscal policies, unwillingness to maintain pride in western values or the strength to defend them from nefarious actors.
Weren't you just saying the world is not as simple as I make it out to be? Yet you just posted a reply as sweeping and simplified as it's possible to be.
Likewise the original comment that "It has become “far right” to want a smaller state/lower tax burden, strive for economic growth through productivity gains rather than imported headcount, and to have a prickly enough defence capability that foreign autocrats think twice about messing with" is just polemic. This is what culture war does - takes the most extreme views to be found on the other side of the argument, then treats them as the mainstream opinion of ones opponents and condemns them as such.
We all know the real far right when we see them. One of them was on the air yesterday telling us the real villain of WW2 was Churchill, and the Nazis accidentally killed a few million Jews.
This quite bland list of requirements just led to the hope that I was merely “authoritarian right” like Meloni, rather than of the Holocaust denying far right type. For wanting a stable budget, a focus on productivity growth and a national defence capable of deterring modern fascists like Xi and Putin. And yet I am the polemicist…
There’s a massive unmet political demand for my list. To bring back on topic, are any of the remaining 5 Tory candidates willing to meet this demand? Certainly the US feels a long way away from giving voters such a candidate.
No one is calling you a polemicist except in your own imagination.
What you are "wanting" is fine - many would support it as an ambition but how to achieve it is the question which you seem unwilling to address.
What are these "productivity gains" which drive the growth which you would then use to cut taxes and spending (I disagree with you profoundly on that by the way - I would use growth to clear the deficit and pay down debt long before I'd even think about tax cuts)? What defines a "national defence capable of deterring modern fascists"? It may noy be large numbers of tanks, guns, troops, ships, aircraft or missiles - it may simply be a strong cyber defence, I don't know. Do you?
We need to move beyond platitudes and look at realistic solutions.
Whenever you see "productivity" as a solution, it's worth challenging people as to what that really means.
Productivity growth in the UK in the 20th century was often accompanied by a reduction in working hours. It is measured by output per hour, so does not necessarily mean an increase in economic output.
I reckon you could cut 1/2 of the UK workforce down to a 4-day week, make lonely a small impact on economic output and realise massive productivity gains. Is that what people are looking for?
Productivity is largely a function of productive capital per worker. A typewriter is more productive than a pen, a computer even more productive. The trouble is, as a nation, we have not invested in productive capital over recent decades but have "invested" in property. And you have to get past the home-owning gerontocracy to change that.
I don't disagree but I can't help but the think that technological developments since 2010 must have boosted productivity, even if we can't see it in the stats. Consider even just mobile phones and better internet.
Another is commercial traffic - that's increased by 40% since 2008.
It's areas where it is very difficult to boost productivity, like the courts, NHS, customer service over the phone, where people get most frustrated. I think part of that is because other parts of our lives have become relatively so much smoother and easier.
I can think of a number of ways to improve NHS productivity.
Invest in capital equipment, modern buildings and training. Its not brain surgery (or maybe it is).
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
Not really, the Tories weren't planning to massively jack up spending on pointless state largesse - and they did have a plan to get us back to black.
Did they bollocks. They put off having any realistic fiscal plan to the other side of the election, exactly as Starmer did.
For example not updating the spending review. The salted the eath and laid heffalump traps rather than sort out the finances.
Reeves needs to stop whinging about it though. No one likes a moaner. She needs to pull out a few rabbits from the hat too. There is a bit of theatre to a budget or it turns into a pasty tax fiasco. Giving WFP to those on UC for example.
Dishonest of her to moan about it. She knew just as well as Hunt that the figures didn't add up. Even if the detail hadn't been revealed.
One thing I have noticed, and this is purely based on anecdote, is many people who were previously very sure in themselves about voting to oust the Tories are now much less sure about their decision. If the next leader can harness this sentiment I think a win in 2029 isn't off the table.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
Yep, the best antidote to Labour is seeing Labour in office.
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
Everybody knew there was going to be a reckoning - there should have been one immediately after the pandemic, a one off tax raid to try and recoup some of the millions thrown at the economy by Sunak when Chancellor (parts of which were defrauded by some).
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
Not really, the Tories weren't planning to massively jack up spending on pointless state largesse - and they did have a plan to get us back to black.
Did they bollocks. They put off having any realistic fiscal plan to the other side of the election, exactly as Starmer did.
For example not updating the spending review. The salted the eath and laid heffalump traps rather than sort out the finances.
Reeves needs to stop whinging about it though. No one likes a moaner. She needs to pull out a few rabbits from the hat too. There is a bit of theatre to a budget or it turns into a pasty tax fiasco. Giving WFP to those on UC for example.
Dishonest of her to moan about it. She knew just as well as Hunt that the figures didn't add up. Even if the detail hadn't been revealed.
Exactly. Both major parties were lying about the nations finances as many of us on PB pointed out during the campaign.
Comments
Without that - or a deal with Farage - they cannot begin to think of “winning”. Once that is done they can gently move more to the centre
But on migration/asylum/culture wars the Tories have to be firmly right wing and stay there. They need to admit their policies in these areas did not work and they need to show some thought on policies that WILL work
Because this is a pivotal policy area and it highly favourable for right wing parties if they get it right. As we see across Europe and the west. And Labour are constitutionally incapable of addressing it
The Tories should promise to completely clean out the home office and replace 90% of its staff. Indeed they need to promise this of the whole civil service. The blob has to go
There’s a massive unmet political demand for my list. To bring back on topic, are any of the remaining 5 Tory candidates willing to meet this demand? Certainly the US feels a long way away from giving voters such a candidate.
Inviting them to the Commons right after the Brighton bomb??
I still haven’t decided if Corbyn is stupid or evil or a mix
Answered the question there.
#NU10K All The Way
Tugenhadt or Stride out next, leaving the fantastic four for the Conference. I anticipate Cleverly doing well there.
Looks like I am heading to skid row on this one.
The purpose of a public enquiry is to take 7 years to tell you what everyone knew 7 minutes after the event.
By burying the truth in time and 70,000 pages, the outrage is dimmed. Prosecution deferred or forgotten about.
Consider Rotherham. Thousands of victims. Those who covered up the matter - not even administrative action taken against them. They knew. They covered it up. They enabled it to go on.
Biggest department by headcount is the Ministry of Justice by the way.
Starmer 411 seats
I cannot be bothered to even listen to the conservative leadership candidates and to be honest Sunak was probably as good as any of them will be judged by his performance at todays PMQs
Whoever succeeds will have a hard task, but it will be labours election to lose in 2029 and, whilst some of their announcements poll quite well, the doom and gloom and that 22 billion black hole repeated ad infinitum is not playing well and as for taking Grandma's winter fuel allowance and giving it to train drivers who will earn £70,000 plus was just about the worst optics Reeves could have come up with.
I expect both Starmer and Reeves regret their decision which ironically, if those 800,000 who are entitled to pension credit claim will cost Reeves over 3 billion extra and not a1.5 billion fantasy saving
Hoping for Badenoch and to trade out Stride, Tugendhat and Cleverly. leading to the question how do you cash out individual positions on Betfair?
Want to cash out Tugendhat and hold my bets on Cleverly and Stride. Ideally without laying Tugendhat if that's possible.
To shore up the centre left mainstream, with Labour and LD being in fact unacknowledged allies (possible because English seats split up handily mostly either Con v Lab or Con v LD and not LD v Lab).
Or to look to a some form of Toryreform party (currently of course splitting votes) under the name Conservative, offering a really different, though thought out and costed (ie not Truss) alternative.
I want neither of these, but I'm a One Nation Tory.
It's a bit early to speculate, but I think it is certain the next election will be a cracker psephologically. It might even offer real alternatives policywise too.
As long as it is also reasonable competence.
(Perhaps we need RR to start a debate about VAT on books? THAT would make politics a bit more exciting.
Cold smoked marinated carp with hot boiled potatoes. Sounds pretty bad…
It’s absolutely bloody delicious. Its better than any meal I had in n my recent ELEVEN WEEKS in France (oysters aside but they don’t count)
All the best food I’ve had in recent days has been in impoverished Eastern Europe. Montenegro. Transnistria. Ukraine. Moldova
Their local food has retained an honest yet wise and maybe deceptive “simplicity” and it rocks
What you are "wanting" is fine - many would support it as an ambition but how to achieve it is the question which you seem unwilling to address.
What are these "productivity gains" which drive the growth which you would then use to cut taxes and spending (I disagree with you profoundly on that by the way - I would use growth to clear the deficit and pay down debt long before I'd even think about tax cuts)? What defines a "national defence capable of deterring modern fascists"? It may noy be large numbers of tanks, guns, troops, ships, aircraft or missiles - it may simply be a strong cyber defence, I don't know. Do you?
We need to move beyond platitudes and look at realistic solutions.
People who are natural small c conservatives abandoned the party in July but even this small taste of their first Labour government since they were teenagers or in their early 20s has begun to make them see sense.
This isn’t 1997. Labour are not masters of all they survey, the Tories face a crisis of their own and need to shore up their right flank, and politics is becoming more polarised. This mantra that is repeated on here about centrists always winning feels to me to be a lot of wishcasting.
Seldon has already given the first historical assessment, the last 14 years of Conservative and coalition government was shit and a lost decade and a half for the UK, we await a counter argument from the right.
Seldon describes himself as "emotionally on the left, intellectually more on the right", a "C19 liberal" to place him on political spectrum.
They have great authentic food and lovely towns with little crime and they are proud of their cultures, not scolded to be ashamed like the Brits, not bullied with endless guilt like the Germans
It is time for Western Europe to learn from the east
This is a class that seems to hate the Tories at the moment. Many are very socially liberal, many support well funded public services and dislike right wing cultural attack lines. But this is a class who were not old enough to really remember a Labour government (or wouldn’t have been earning a professional salary at that time), and what I think will be very interesting is whether that group stick with their social morals or whether they start to feel like Labour aren’t on their side economically.
Whether Labour grasp the opportunity and the Tories comprehend the problem are two further but different questions.
Of course it is far too early to judge. Starmer has five years. He may yet have a brilliant clever plan
I can’t see it tho. Where does the election winning growth come from? How does he solve migration and asylum?
I honestly expected a blitz of policies in the first 100 days - and some would be painful but they would be balanced by the clever or daring. I see nothing. Just pleasing the unions and higher taxes and let’s give hypothermia to the old. That’s it
So many people I know are properly shitting it about this budget at the end of October.
The online polling gives the Conservatives a lead of 18-22 points but the weekly Nanos Research poll which is by telephone has a 13 point lead. It's obviously more important to look at what is happening in key provinces such as Ontario and there's not enough provincial polling but what we've seen suggests the anti-Liberal swing could be biggest in the Liberal heartlands.
Poilievre is an interesting figure - whether he's a model for a future British Conservative Prime Minister I'm not certain. He certainly has huge issues with the Bank of Canada and the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.
Productivity growth in the UK in the 20th century was often accompanied by a reduction in working hours. It is measured by output per hour, so does not necessarily mean an increase in economic output.
I reckon you could cut 1/2 of the UK workforce down to a 4-day week, make lonely a small impact on economic output and realise massive productivity gains. Is that what people are looking for?
We are still borrowing £80-£90 billion a year - the priority must be to get the public finances back somewhere near balance and that's going to need a mix of tax rises and spending cuts and that's what October will be about.
The Tories have left behind a very fast growing economy and again, anecdotally at least, people are feeling better off than they were this time last year.
Labour are going to squander the growth on bribes to the public sector and their union mates rather than investing to ensure we have long term high growth rates.
Now I am at a loss as to where the money can be found which is what makes the wait so interesting - because the logical place is CGT and council tax.
But the idea that they can attack pensions is for the birds
And it is not only the UK. Anyone heard how our USA friends are getting on? And France. And Germany. And Italy. And Canada.
I will never let you forget it.
A typewriter is more productive than a pen, a computer even more productive.
The trouble is, as a nation, we have not invested in productive capital over recent decades but have "invested" in property.
And you have to get past the home-owning gerontocracy to change that.
A smart Tory leader will go down this route rather than try and go it alone like they did last time with the Rwanda policy. There needs to be a much broader agreement on what to do about illegal immigration and it needs to come from the UK, Germany, France and Italy in Europe so the ECHR can be reformed and no longer used as a shield for deportation by illegal immigrants and foreign criminals.
The Grenfell report is a further nail in the coffin of their recent history.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4861523-georgia-high-school-shooting/
I will have such revenges on you both,
That all the world shall—I will do such things,—
What they are, yet I know not: but they shall be
The terrors of the earth.
Jenrick is definitely not that person.
Fair point. Unlikely - but fair
Another is commercial traffic - that's increased by 40% since 2008.
It's areas where it is very difficult to boost productivity, like the courts, NHS, customer service over the phone, where people get most frustrated. I think part of that is because other parts of our lives have become relatively so much smoother and easier.
Everywhere I go I see folk who are allegedly working scrolling through nonsense on their phones.
(Not to say that it's a better solution. Just that it's not unusual to do it the other way round).
The Tories had 9 years to show they could be Tories. They failed massively.
Adrian Newey given Aston Martin shares in mutimillion-pound switch deal
Mastermind behind 12 drivers’ championships and 13 constructors’ titles for Williams, McLaren and Red Bull to jump ship next season as British team convince 65-year-old of their project
https://www.thetimes.com/sport/formula-one/article/adrian-newey-aston-martin-shares-red-bull-formula-1-exclusive-t20b6jn6w
They put off having any realistic fiscal plan to the other side of the election, exactly as Starmer did.
There was a fiscal plan to have debt dropping as a %GDP by 2028-29 when the tax thresholds would be unfrozen as well.
He had to deal with the aftermath of Covid, Boris and the Trussterfuck in the constraints of economic reality.
Reeves needs to stop whinging about it though. No one likes a moaner. She needs to pull out a few rabbits from the hat too. There is a bit of theatre to a budget or it turns into a pasty tax fiasco. Giving WFP to those on UC for example.
But what really grates my goat is people who have the temerity to claim to be loyal lifelong Tories who, when the chips are down, actually voter Labour without a flicker.
There was a conspiracy between both parties not to say how they intended to deal with our fiscal problems.
Hunt's plans implied huge cuts in spending, but he was careful not to acknowledge that. Or say where those cuts might fall.
Starmer was every bit as silent.
Invest in capital equipment, modern buildings and training. Its not brain surgery (or maybe it is).
She knew just as well as Hunt that the figures didn't add up. Even if the detail hadn't been revealed.