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A New Era For PB! – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,258

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Do you have any more scenarios with no evidence that may or may not be true?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,470
    MattW said:

    On a piece of good news wrt rentals - the 10 year Fire Angel CO alarm I ordered whilst commenting last night just arrived from Amazon.

    £21.00 delivered. £1.75 per annum to protect a family in case the newly installed replacement boiler has a problem. The basic stuff is cheap, and not difficult.

    Is this for a rental?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,279
    MattW said:

    carnforth said:

    MattW said:

    On a piece of good news wrt rentals - the 10 year Fire Angel CO alarm I ordered whilst commenting last night just arrived from Amazon.

    £21.00 delivered. £1.75 per annum to protect a family in case the newly installed replacement boiler has a problem. The basic stuff is cheap, and not difficult.

    Unless it's comingled, fake stock:

    https://www.redpoints.com/blog/amazon-commingled-inventory-management/

    Much as Iove Amazon, that's one thing I'd buy in person. Also laptop chargers and other power leads.
    No - branded, sealed and a model I use normally, so I'm happy with it
    This document doesn't actually say how many were convincing copies, but presumably some of them:

    https://www.electricalsafetyfirst.org.uk/media/1119/counterfeit-and-imitation-apple-chargers.pdf
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,759
    Last. For me on Vanilla….
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,470

    algarkirk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I feel like I am divorcing my own country. It’s quite odd

    Much of the rot was there, happening under a series of hapless conservative governments playing games thinking the important decisions were been made by them in Westminster.
    But it’s eerily like falling out of love and realising a relationship is over. You go from overly praising to overly criticising. I remember in that divorce movie from decades ago “the wars of the roses” the female character says to her soon-to-be-ex-husband “I now dislike you so much the way you eat makes me want to kill you”

    The way Britain eats makes me want to kill Britain. This is an overreaction. Me and the UK have had a kind of trial separation and I’m generally happier away from the marital home so it’s likely time to make it permanent
    You and Shamima Begum need to do a sort of swap. You get a Syrian passport and she gets her old UK one back. Everyone a winner.
    Why does anyone win if Shamima Begum returns to the UK?
    Well, she does. I imagine a prison cell at Downview would be paradise compared to a refugee camp in Syria/Turkey/Lebannon/Iraq.
    The people working to return her to the U.K. are quite clear that they will fight any attempt to try her.
    Thankfully that decision is not in their gift.
    Apparently, actual witness to her crimes aren’t good witnesses. Because they might be a bit biased against ISIS….

    And charging her with War Crimes would be naughty or something.
    If the witnesses aren't "good witnesses" isn't that up to the jury to decide based on what is put before them by the prosecution and defence?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,470
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Then again, why would I want to leave Britain

    *stares at horizon, thoughtfully*


    Would such sights have the same power without some time spent under an iron-grey sky at 15c in August?
    I’ll be back for a week or two around Christmas new year. A few days of the British January should suffice. Don’t you think?
    Dunno. Me and my boozing mates have taken to having a xmas barbecue (outside) in recent years seeing as it so mild in late December quite often these days.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Thanks for confirming you have no fucking idea about this.

    The difference is that Truss was proposing massive tax cuts and massive increase in public spending.

    But I love the idea that the markets are lefties.

    I have worked in this sector for over thirteen years and you are talking utter shite.

    The markets in the form of Larry and BlackRock have only one objective, maximising their returns, not propping up leftie governments, which is why he does deals with Saudi Arabia and the NYC Police Association despite lefties telling him to divest.
    Whilst I agree. They're hardly likely to clue the lawyers in to their thinking are they?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,470
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Then again, why would I want to leave Britain

    *stares at horizon, thoughtfully*


    Would such sights have the same power without some time spent under an iron-grey sky at 15c in August?
    I’ll be back for a week or two around Christmas new year. A few days of the British January should suffice. Don’t you think?
    You seem to be out of the country 90% of the year - why the need to divorce the UK? You are never here.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Thanks for confirming you have no fucking idea about this.

    The difference is that Truss was proposing massive tax cuts and massive increase in public spending.

    But I love the idea that the markets are lefties.

    I have worked in this sector for over thirteen years and you are talking utter shite.

    The markets in the form of Larry and BlackRock have only one objective, maximising their returns, not propping up leftie governments, which is why he does deals with Saudi Arabia and the NYC Police Association despite lefties telling him to divest.
    That’s not entirely true. I don’t agree with @Luckyguy1983’s paranoid assessment of what happened to Truss. But there is genuine evidence that the markets can be bent politically - eg if the ECB disapproves of an individual EU government’s intentions then subtle pressure is brought
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,446
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    At least a 10% chance. The numbers aren't rosy. Same if by some miracle the Cons had got back. In fact Truss had a go at accelerating things. That was pretty close.
    At some point the policy of reducing debt as a % of GDP in the fifth year from 'now' ('now' going forward 12 months every year, ie, never, I am not making this up) by continuing to borrow an additional £100bn+ per annum and of course not paying any of it back will come home to roost. (USA might take longer, but it must happen one day).
    My default is to agree, but then I have to explain why it is good enough for the markets?

    The answer I've come up with is that the plans that bring British government debt to GDP falling in year five are a bit like a soft version of a prepared IMF bailout plan. The markets are reassured to know that the government have a plan to get debt under control, if it ever needs to use it, and so they're happy (for now) as long as the plan is updated every year when it's deferred again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Thanks for confirming you have no fucking idea about this.

    The difference is that Truss was proposing massive tax cuts and massive increase in public spending.

    But I love the idea that the markets are lefties.

    I have worked in this sector for over thirteen years and you are talking utter shite.

    The markets in the form of Larry and BlackRock have only one objective, maximising their returns, not propping up leftie governments, which is why he does deals with Saudi Arabia and the NYC Police Association despite lefties telling him to divest.
    Whilst I agree. They're hardly likely to clue the lawyers in to their thinking are they?
    Well you see, some of their articles of association and contracts say they must only invest in countries/companies with a good credit rating/outlook.

    The clients of BlackRock would be furious if their money was being used to bring down governments, they want maximum returns.

    Lawyers and compliance managers are often asked to look over said investment strategies and contracts.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,676
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Do you have any more scenarios with no evidence that may or may not be true?
    The presence of double-figure brain cells under your thinning pate?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,214
    I cannot stop laughing at Keir Starmer talking with Olaf Scholz about how to defeat the far right, when the SPD are about to be obliterated by the 'far right' AFD, polling in single figures in large parts of Germany. The labour party seem destined to suffer the exact same fate as the mainstream social democratic parties around Europe.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 401
    edited August 31
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Do you have any more scenarios with no evidence that may or may not be true?
    Brutal!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Then again, why would I want to leave Britain

    *stares at horizon, thoughtfully*


    Would such sights have the same power without some time spent under an iron-grey sky at 15c in August?
    I’ll be back for a week or two around Christmas new year. A few days of the British January should suffice. Don’t you think?
    You seem to be out of the country 90% of the year - why the need to divorce the UK? You are never here.
    Honestly. I think it’s emotional. I want the decree nisi

    Weird but true
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,271
    darkage said:

    I cannot stop laughing at Keir Starmer talking with Olaf Scholz about how to defeat the far right, when the SPD are about to be obliterated by the 'far right' AFD, polling in single figures in large parts of Germany. The labour party seem destined to suffer the exact same fate as the mainstream social democratic parties around Europe.

    Yes, the Labour Party is finished. After all, they only got a parliamentary majority of 172 back in July.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Thanks for confirming you have no fucking idea about this.

    The difference is that Truss was proposing massive tax cuts and massive increase in public spending.

    But I love the idea that the markets are lefties.

    I have worked in this sector for over thirteen years and you are talking utter shite.

    The markets in the form of Larry and BlackRock have only one objective, maximising their returns, not propping up leftie governments, which is why he does deals with Saudi Arabia and the NYC Police Association despite lefties telling him to divest.
    Whilst I agree. They're hardly likely to clue the lawyers in to their thinking are they?
    Well you see, some of their articles of association and contracts say they must only invest in countries/companies with a good credit rating/outlook.

    The clients of BlackRock would be furious if their money was being used to bring down governments, they want maximum returns.

    Lawyers and compliance managers are often asked to look over said investment strategies and contracts.
    Come along. If you are fully informed, as a lawyer, I'll eat a few hats.

    Lawyers and compliance managers only ever see part-baked stuff.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240
    darkage said:

    I cannot stop laughing at Keir Starmer talking with Olaf Scholz about how to defeat the far right, when the SPD are about to be obliterated by the 'far right' AFD, polling in single figures in large parts of Germany. The labour party seem destined to suffer the exact same fate as the mainstream social democratic parties around Europe.

    Scholz and Starmer are weirdly similar. Wanky controlling lefty lawyers with no good ideas. And I agree they will meet the same fate

    The bigger question is how bad the threat of the far right gets before a sensible party is forced to get Danish/Polish on the situation
  • TresTres Posts: 2,648
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Thanks for confirming you have no fucking idea about this.

    The difference is that Truss was proposing massive tax cuts and massive increase in public spending.

    But I love the idea that the markets are lefties.

    I have worked in this sector for over thirteen years and you are talking utter shite.

    The markets in the form of Larry and BlackRock have only one objective, maximising their returns, not propping up leftie governments, which is why he does deals with Saudi Arabia and the NYC Police Association despite lefties telling him to divest.
    Whilst I agree. They're hardly likely to clue the lawyers in to their thinking are they?
    Well you see, some of their articles of association and contracts say they must only invest in countries/companies with a good credit rating/outlook.

    The clients of BlackRock would be furious if their money was being used to bring down governments, they want maximum returns.

    Lawyers and compliance managers are often asked to look over said investment strategies and contracts.
    Come along. If you are fully informed, as a lawyer, I'll eat a few hats.

    Lawyers and compliance managers only ever see part-baked stuff.
    I love the idea that there was a conspiracy of billionaire fund managers to bring down Liz Truss. Absolutely nuts.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517
    Tres said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Thanks for confirming you have no fucking idea about this.

    The difference is that Truss was proposing massive tax cuts and massive increase in public spending.

    But I love the idea that the markets are lefties.

    I have worked in this sector for over thirteen years and you are talking utter shite.

    The markets in the form of Larry and BlackRock have only one objective, maximising their returns, not propping up leftie governments, which is why he does deals with Saudi Arabia and the NYC Police Association despite lefties telling him to divest.
    Whilst I agree. They're hardly likely to clue the lawyers in to their thinking are they?
    Well you see, some of their articles of association and contracts say they must only invest in countries/companies with a good credit rating/outlook.

    The clients of BlackRock would be furious if their money was being used to bring down governments, they want maximum returns.

    Lawyers and compliance managers are often asked to look over said investment strategies and contracts.
    Come along. If you are fully informed, as a lawyer, I'll eat a few hats.

    Lawyers and compliance managers only ever see part-baked stuff.
    I love the idea that there was a conspiracy of billionaire fund managers to bring down Liz Truss. Absolutely nuts.
    When I am at Davos next year I'll have a chat with them all about why they hated Liz Truss so much.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240

    darkage said:

    I cannot stop laughing at Keir Starmer talking with Olaf Scholz about how to defeat the far right, when the SPD are about to be obliterated by the 'far right' AFD, polling in single figures in large parts of Germany. The labour party seem destined to suffer the exact same fate as the mainstream social democratic parties around Europe.

    Yes, the Labour Party is finished. After all, they only got a parliamentary majority of 172 back in July.
    Why repeat this gibberish. They got that on 33.7% of the vote and on a terrible GE turnout. And against a perfectly divided right wing

    These conditions are highly unlikely to prevail again and starmer is already looking like a loser and a liability. With no ideas. That apparently massive majority is an illusion. Could easily be swept away in one go
  • TresTres Posts: 2,648
    have we done the Met protecting more dodgy police officers

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly8e4wpznwo

    A serving Metropolitan Police officer is due to appear at court after being charged with additional sex offences including rape and voyeurism. PC Jake Cummings, 25, was charged in February with raping a woman as well as charges of stalking and controlling and coercive behaviour. He appeared at court in June, but the Metropolitan Police said he had been charged with more offences involving another two victims.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Then again, why would I want to leave Britain

    *stares at horizon, thoughtfully*


    Would such sights have the same power without some time spent under an iron-grey sky at 15c in August?
    I’ll be back for a week or two around Christmas new year. A few days of the British January should suffice. Don’t you think?
    Dealing with January is straightforward; forget the modern rules. The Season of Christmas embraces Epiphany and runs for 40 days from the evening of 24th December to 2nd February inclusive. It is not possible for Lent to start before 4th February, so this causes no problem.

    Instead of this dry January nonsense, you start Christmas at the proper time, and continue marking it for the 40 days. Other people love to be part of this, as they have mostly overfilled their diaries in December with pre Christmas stuff, and January is a vacant space when they have been led to believe they should be miserable. This is pagan post-Christian nonsense and makes January depressing when it should not be. And I live in the north where the sun rises about 11.30am and sets about 2pm. Try it.
    Alternatively, you can fly to Indochina on New Year’s Eve. Where the weather is utterly perfect at that time of year - 28-30C with cloudless skies and low humidity every day. Until early march. And everyone is in a good mood and the beer is cold and the food is superb and you can drink outdoors under a tropical moon every night

    Try it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    Insider Advantage and ActiVote Swing States polls

    Arizona Trump 49% Harris 48%

    Nevada Trump 48% Harris 47%

    Georgia Harris 48% Trump 48%

    North Carolina Trump 49% Harris 48%


    ActiVote

    North Carolina Harris 50% Trump 50%

    Florida Trump 53% Harris 47%

    Texas Trump 55% Harris 46%

    https://www.activote.net/activote_polling/
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500

    Tres said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Thanks for confirming you have no fucking idea about this.

    The difference is that Truss was proposing massive tax cuts and massive increase in public spending.

    But I love the idea that the markets are lefties.

    I have worked in this sector for over thirteen years and you are talking utter shite.

    The markets in the form of Larry and BlackRock have only one objective, maximising their returns, not propping up leftie governments, which is why he does deals with Saudi Arabia and the NYC Police Association despite lefties telling him to divest.
    Whilst I agree. They're hardly likely to clue the lawyers in to their thinking are they?
    Well you see, some of their articles of association and contracts say they must only invest in countries/companies with a good credit rating/outlook.

    The clients of BlackRock would be furious if their money was being used to bring down governments, they want maximum returns.

    Lawyers and compliance managers are often asked to look over said investment strategies and contracts.
    Come along. If you are fully informed, as a lawyer, I'll eat a few hats.

    Lawyers and compliance managers only ever see part-baked stuff.
    I love the idea that there was a conspiracy of billionaire fund managers to bring down Liz Truss. Absolutely nuts.
    When I am at Davos next year I'll have a chat with them all about why they hated Liz Truss so much.
    Will you have time when you're fixing the world economy at the same time?

    Davos Schmavos.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,069
    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    I cannot stop laughing at Keir Starmer talking with Olaf Scholz about how to defeat the far right, when the SPD are about to be obliterated by the 'far right' AFD, polling in single figures in large parts of Germany. The labour party seem destined to suffer the exact same fate as the mainstream social democratic parties around Europe.

    Yes, the Labour Party is finished. After all, they only got a parliamentary majority of 172 back in July.
    Why repeat this gibberish. They got that on 33.7% of the vote and on a terrible GE turnout. And against a perfectly divided right wing

    These conditions are highly unlikely to prevail again and starmer is already looking like a loser and a liability. With no ideas. That apparently massive majority is an illusion. Could easily be swept away in one go
    Of course most of this is true; but the crucial figure is that at least 75% of those voting wanted the Tories out, and it is highly likely that of those voting Tory a very high number actually didn't want a Tory majority, even if they wanted their own MP to get back in. The 172 majority isn't gibberish and isn't an accident. FPTP both ousted a hated government and put in the best (even if sub-optimal) available, and opened the voters' door to an LD resurgence next time if the voters want. (LDs become the official opposition if they take just 25 Tory seats and all else were to remain the same in 2029. The Tories are in real peril).
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,037
    edited August 31
    Tres said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Thanks for confirming you have no fucking idea about this.

    The difference is that Truss was proposing massive tax cuts and massive increase in public spending.

    But I love the idea that the markets are lefties.

    I have worked in this sector for over thirteen years and you are talking utter shite.

    The markets in the form of Larry and BlackRock have only one objective, maximising their returns, not propping up leftie governments, which is why he does deals with Saudi Arabia and the NYC Police Association despite lefties telling him to divest.
    Whilst I agree. They're hardly likely to clue the lawyers in to their thinking are they?
    Well you see, some of their articles of association and contracts say they must only invest in countries/companies with a good credit rating/outlook.

    The clients of BlackRock would be furious if their money was being used to bring down governments, they want maximum returns.

    Lawyers and compliance managers are often asked to look over said investment strategies and contracts.
    Come along. If you are fully informed, as a lawyer, I'll eat a few hats.

    Lawyers and compliance managers only ever see part-baked stuff.
    I love the idea that there was a conspiracy of billionaire fund managers to bring down Liz Truss. Absolutely nuts.
    The problem with such 'theories' is that the money floating round the world amounts to trillions and trillions, far more than any single entity - including governments or supranationals like the ECB or the IMF - can manipulate. This doesn't mean billionaires can't all come to the same conclusion at the same time, of course, but that's not the same as a conspiracy.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,866
    edited August 31

    MattW said:

    On a piece of good news wrt rentals - the 10 year Fire Angel CO alarm I ordered whilst commenting last night just arrived from Amazon.

    £21.00 delivered. £1.75 per annum to protect a family in case the newly installed replacement boiler has a problem. The basic stuff is cheap, and not difficult.

    Is this for a rental?
    Yes. The top level regs are summarised here:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/smoke-and-carbon-monoxide-alarms-explanatory-booklet-for-landlords/the-smoke-and-carbon-monoxide-alarm-england-regulations-2015-qa-booklet-for-the-private-rented-sector-landlords-and-tenants

    In theory a basic CO alarm with T replacing replaceable batteries is OK, but I prefer sealed for life batteries as I don't want to be dependent on T rembering as the basic system, and I don't really like has as it is high consequences if something fails. In this case the sealed-for-life battery has run out, and it was noticed so I am replacing it with a 10 year version.

    That will get replaced / checked if the T moves out within that period or at an annual check, or it may get mentioned casually on an "any problems?" phone call?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    @DCBMEP
    Big news for
    @RobertJenrick as Chairman of ERG and leading Brexiteer Mark Francois backs Jenrick: “I believe that Robert Jenrick is the best one to unite our Party and lead us back into Government.”
    https://x.com/DCBMEP/status/1829860523476971648
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,037
    ydoethur said:

    Joe Root - some crazy stats.

    Since January 2021 he's played 48 Tests, scored 4554 at 56.92 with 17 centuries and 15 fifties.

    Next best in terms of runs is Crawley with 2127 at 29.

    Next best in terms of average is Brook with 56.88, but only 1500 runs in 17 Tests.

    Next best in terms of centuries is Bairstow, with six, and after that Pope and Brook both have five, meaning he has scored more centuries than the next three put together.

    There was a time when his conversion rate was horrible, and his average suffered. There was a time when he wasn't compared to Kohli, or Smith, or Williamson because he couldn't rack up the runs like they did.

    But in these last three years, he's been magnificent. That's a record comparable to Hammond, or Sutcliffe, or Barrington. By far the best batsman in the world in that stretch.

    To put in further context, only two players in the world has a higher average than him in that period (Saud Shakeel, 59 from 12 tests, and Williamson, 64 from 22) and the next most prolific player in terms of runs is Khawaja, who is exactly 1990 runs behind.

    Next in terms of centuries is Williamson (9) then Khawaja, Karunaratne and Labushagne (all 7). So he still has more centuries than any other two players in the world in that time.

    Of course he's played more Tests (next highest on the list among non-Englishmen are Smith and Labushagne with 34) but they're still staggering numbers.

    He always had talent. Oh boy, how he's shown it in the last few years.

    Yes, he's one of our best ever batterers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    HYUFD said:

    Insider Advantage and ActiVote Swing States polls

    Arizona Trump 49% Harris 48%

    Nevada Trump 48% Harris 47%

    Georgia Harris 48% Trump 48%

    North Carolina Trump 49% Harris 48%


    ActiVote

    North Carolina Harris 50% Trump 50%

    Florida Trump 53% Harris 47%

    Texas Trump 55% Harris 46%

    https://www.activote.net/activote_polling/

    https://insideradvantage.com/
  • TresTres Posts: 2,648
    ydoethur said:

    Joe Root - some crazy stats.

    Since January 2021 he's played 48 Tests, scored 4554 at 56.92 with 17 centuries and 15 fifties.

    Next best in terms of runs is Crawley with 2127 at 29.

    Next best in terms of average is Brook with 56.88, but only 1500 runs in 17 Tests.

    Next best in terms of centuries is Bairstow, with six, and after that Pope and Brook both have five, meaning he has scored more centuries than the next three put together.

    There was a time when his conversion rate was horrible, and his average suffered. There was a time when he wasn't compared to Kohli, or Smith, or Williamson because he couldn't rack up the runs like they did.

    But in these last three years, he's been magnificent. That's a record comparable to Hammond, or Sutcliffe, or Barrington. By far the best batsman in the world in that stretch.

    To put in further context, only two players in the world has a higher average than him in that period (Saud Shakeel, 59 from 12 tests, and Williamson, 64 from 22) and the next most prolific player in terms of runs is Khawaja, who is exactly 1990 runs behind.

    Next in terms of centuries is Williamson (9) then Khawaja, Karunaratne and Labushagne (all 7). So he still has more centuries than any other two players in the world in that time.

    Of course he's played more Tests (next highest on the list among non-Englishmen are Smith and Labushagne with 34) but they're still staggering numbers.

    He always had talent. Oh boy, how he's shown it in the last few years.

    Only 1 century against the Aussies in that time though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,605
    The city of Aurora, Colorado is facing a problem with Venezuelan gangs taking over entire apartment buildings, but the local government is trying to downplay the issue and blame landlords.

    https://x.com/auroragov/status/1829657049841401930
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 22,458
    HYUFD said:

    @DCBMEP
    Big news for
    @RobertJenrick as Chairman of ERG and leading Brexiteer Mark Francois backs Jenrick: “I believe that Robert Jenrick is the best one to unite our Party and lead us back into Government.”
    https://x.com/DCBMEP/status/1829860523476971648

    JENRICK
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,731
    Good news! We are going to fill the £22bn black hole in the economy by buying up loads of Oasis tickets and re-selling them at ten times the price.

    https://bsky.app/profile/parodypm.bsky.social/post/3l2ywwbvch32d
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,544
    HYUFD said:

    @DCBMEP
    Big news for
    @RobertJenrick as Chairman of ERG and leading Brexiteer Mark Francois backs Jenrick: “I believe that Robert Jenrick is the best one to unite our Party and lead us back into Government.”
    https://x.com/DCBMEP/status/1829860523476971648

    Good news for someone... But who?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,470
    HYUFD said:

    @DCBMEP
    Big news for
    @RobertJenrick as Chairman of ERG and leading Brexiteer Mark Francois backs Jenrick: “I believe that Robert Jenrick is the best one to unite our Party and lead us back into Government.”
    https://x.com/DCBMEP/status/1829860523476971648

    Speccie magazine reporting this weekend that many in the party think he is running the best, most organized campaign. "He's not wasting time" is one quote. Although general view is if Badenoch manages to make it to members vote then she wins. MPs may well not allow that to happen.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,866
    edited August 31
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    On a piece of good news wrt rentals - the 10 year Fire Angel CO alarm I ordered whilst commenting last night just arrived from Amazon.

    £21.00 delivered. £1.75 per annum to protect a family in case the newly installed replacement boiler has a problem. The basic stuff is cheap, and not difficult.

    Is this for a rental?
    Yes. The top level regs are summarised here:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/smoke-and-carbon-monoxide-alarms-explanatory-booklet-for-landlords/the-smoke-and-carbon-monoxide-alarm-england-regulations-2015-qa-booklet-for-the-private-rented-sector-landlords-and-tenants

    In theory a basic CO alarm with T replacing replaceable batteries is OK, but I prefer sealed for life batteries as I don't want to be dependent on T rembering as the basic system, and I don't really like has as it is high consequences if something fails. In this case the sealed-for-life battery has run out, and it was noticed so I am replacing it with a 10 year version.

    That will get replaced / checked if the T moves out within that period or at an annual check, or it may get mentioned casually on an "any problems?" phone call?
    God my typos - sorry.

    rembring / rembering.
    has / gas
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,544

    More importantly.

    I has tickets to Oasis at Wembley Stadium next July.

    The whole process was utter Brexit though.

    About a two hour wait to buy the tickets then 90 mins between the money showing up on my credit card and getting the confirmation email.

    Congrats, I was in the queue for 6 hours, and then sent an hour trying to buy various tickets that kept disappearing. A bit of a wasted day! I've seen them before, anyway.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,069
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Then again, why would I want to leave Britain

    *stares at horizon, thoughtfully*


    Would such sights have the same power without some time spent under an iron-grey sky at 15c in August?
    I’ll be back for a week or two around Christmas new year. A few days of the British January should suffice. Don’t you think?
    Dealing with January is straightforward; forget the modern rules. The Season of Christmas embraces Epiphany and runs for 40 days from the evening of 24th December to 2nd February inclusive. It is not possible for Lent to start before 4th February, so this causes no problem.

    Instead of this dry January nonsense, you start Christmas at the proper time, and continue marking it for the 40 days. Other people love to be part of this, as they have mostly overfilled their diaries in December with pre Christmas stuff, and January is a vacant space when they have been led to believe they should be miserable. This is pagan post-Christian nonsense and makes January depressing when it should not be. And I live in the north where the sun rises about 11.30am and sets about 2pm. Try it.
    Alternatively, you can fly to Indochina on New Year’s Eve. Where the weather is utterly perfect at that time of year - 28-30C with cloudless skies and low humidity every day. Until early march. And everyone is in a good mood and the beer is cold and the food is superb and you can drink outdoors under a tropical moon every night

    Try it
    This is basically what one of my daughters told me. I think she would be going again but has a baby arriving in October.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,866
    The second tier and fifth tier of English football both have teams from County Durham topping the table.

    (Pre-1974 boundaries, of course. )
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517

    More importantly.

    I has tickets to Oasis at Wembley Stadium next July.

    The whole process was utter Brexit though.

    About a two hour wait to buy the tickets then 90 mins between the money showing up on my credit card and getting the confirmation email.

    Congrats, I was in the queue for 6 hours, and then sent an hour trying to buy various tickets that kept disappearing. A bit of a wasted day! I've seen them before, anyway.
    A friend queued for five hours and it was decided he was a bot and told to rejoin the queue at the back.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112
    darkage said:

    I cannot stop laughing at Keir Starmer talking with Olaf Scholz about how to defeat the far right, when the SPD are about to be obliterated by the 'far right' AFD, polling in single figures in large parts of Germany. The labour party seem destined to suffer the exact same fate as the mainstream social democratic parties around Europe.

    My prediction: Scholz’s party won’t be
    obliterated by the far right. But they will be obliterated by the centre right CDU. AfD will underperform polling and CDU will outperform.

    There is a huge latent support base for the right of centre. Time after time, real elections show there is limited support for the far right unless the centre-right is crap. In Germany the centre right is not crap. In France it’s either crap or not crap depending whether you view Ensemble as centre right or centre left.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,069
    City pulling away from Arsenal. Already.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,379



    Divorced. Beheaded. Live.

    Picture of the day, had an amazing time seeing Six at Salford, was great, would highly recommend.

    Seen it twice - it's great fun.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112
    I’m in the process of trying to invent a new cuisine. Easier said than done, a bit like inventing a new musical genre.

    This evening I think I got close, though it’s all still derivative. Venison fried marinated in rose harissa. Broccoli pureed with white pepper, fenugreek and mint, and loads of nutmeg. Roasted potatoes with caraway seeds and chilli. Kind of like Georgian cooking but with a bit of persian, a bit of Moroccan, but cooked like French food.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    BORIS JOHNSON: I bet Maggie's portrait is glad it no longer has to share an office with Starmer Chameleon - the only PM in history to look at the world through sleaze-tainted specs
    https://x.com/MailOnline/status/1829550581020540940
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112

    HYUFD said:

    @DCBMEP
    Big news for
    @RobertJenrick as Chairman of ERG and leading Brexiteer Mark Francois backs Jenrick: “I believe that Robert Jenrick is the best one to unite our Party and lead us back into Government.”
    https://x.com/DCBMEP/status/1829860523476971648

    Good news for someone... But who?
    It’s going to be Jenrick. He can make the kids cry so maybe he can make SKS cry too. Scrub those pictures of D:Ream off the walls.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240
    Can someone explain the basic plot of House of the Dragon like I am 5?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,544
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    @DCBMEP
    Big news for
    @RobertJenrick as Chairman of ERG and leading Brexiteer Mark Francois backs Jenrick: “I believe that Robert Jenrick is the best one to unite our Party and lead us back into Government.”
    https://x.com/DCBMEP/status/1829860523476971648

    Good news for someone... But who?
    It’s going to be Jenrick. He can make the kids cry so maybe he can make SKS cry too. Scrub those pictures of D:Ream off the walls.
    He looks set to be the last right-winger standing (Patel seems to be going nowhere and Badenoch gets people's backs up) so he probably wins with the membership.

    But he is the embodiment of "we were right and the electorate were wrong."
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,699
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    I cannot stop laughing at Keir Starmer talking with Olaf Scholz about how to defeat the far right, when the SPD are about to be obliterated by the 'far right' AFD, polling in single figures in large parts of Germany. The labour party seem destined to suffer the exact same fate as the mainstream social democratic parties around Europe.

    Yes, the Labour Party is finished. After all, they only got a parliamentary majority of 172 back in July.
    Why repeat this gibberish. They got that on 33.7% of the vote and on a terrible GE turnout. And against a perfectly divided right wing

    These conditions are highly unlikely to prevail again and starmer is already looking like a loser and a liability. With no ideas. That apparently massive majority is an illusion. Could easily be swept away in one go
    Of course most of this is true; but the crucial figure is that at least 75% of those voting wanted the Tories out, and it is highly likely that of those voting Tory a very high number actually didn't want a Tory majority, even if they wanted their own MP to get back in. The 172 majority isn't gibberish and isn't an accident. FPTP both ousted a hated government and put in the best (even if sub-optimal) available, and opened the voters' door to an LD resurgence next time if the voters want. (LDs become the official opposition if they take just 25 Tory seats and all else were to remain the same in 2029. The Tories are in real peril).
    Or, if Labour fail and the Tories haven't sorted themselves out, Reform surge.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,544
    Driver said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    I cannot stop laughing at Keir Starmer talking with Olaf Scholz about how to defeat the far right, when the SPD are about to be obliterated by the 'far right' AFD, polling in single figures in large parts of Germany. The labour party seem destined to suffer the exact same fate as the mainstream social democratic parties around Europe.

    Yes, the Labour Party is finished. After all, they only got a parliamentary majority of 172 back in July.
    Why repeat this gibberish. They got that on 33.7% of the vote and on a terrible GE turnout. And against a perfectly divided right wing

    These conditions are highly unlikely to prevail again and starmer is already looking like a loser and a liability. With no ideas. That apparently massive majority is an illusion. Could easily be swept away in one go
    Of course most of this is true; but the crucial figure is that at least 75% of those voting wanted the Tories out, and it is highly likely that of those voting Tory a very high number actually didn't want a Tory majority, even if they wanted their own MP to get back in. The 172 majority isn't gibberish and isn't an accident. FPTP both ousted a hated government and put in the best (even if sub-optimal) available, and opened the voters' door to an LD resurgence next time if the voters want. (LDs become the official opposition if they take just 25 Tory seats and all else were to remain the same in 2029. The Tories are in real peril).
    Or, if Labour fail and the Tories haven't sorted themselves out, Reform surge.
    Or even worse, the Lib Dems.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,727
    Whiling away the time to the changeover binge-watching Kaos....
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,699

    Driver said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    I cannot stop laughing at Keir Starmer talking with Olaf Scholz about how to defeat the far right, when the SPD are about to be obliterated by the 'far right' AFD, polling in single figures in large parts of Germany. The labour party seem destined to suffer the exact same fate as the mainstream social democratic parties around Europe.

    Yes, the Labour Party is finished. After all, they only got a parliamentary majority of 172 back in July.
    Why repeat this gibberish. They got that on 33.7% of the vote and on a terrible GE turnout. And against a perfectly divided right wing

    These conditions are highly unlikely to prevail again and starmer is already looking like a loser and a liability. With no ideas. That apparently massive majority is an illusion. Could easily be swept away in one go
    Of course most of this is true; but the crucial figure is that at least 75% of those voting wanted the Tories out, and it is highly likely that of those voting Tory a very high number actually didn't want a Tory majority, even if they wanted their own MP to get back in. The 172 majority isn't gibberish and isn't an accident. FPTP both ousted a hated government and put in the best (even if sub-optimal) available, and opened the voters' door to an LD resurgence next time if the voters want. (LDs become the official opposition if they take just 25 Tory seats and all else were to remain the same in 2029. The Tories are in real peril).
    Or, if Labour fail and the Tories haven't sorted themselves out, Reform surge.
    Or even worse, the Lib Dems.
    Less likely. Reform are generally in second place behind Labour in most of the seats that the Tories let down after winning them for the first time in 2019.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,379
    Leon said:

    Can someone explain the basic plot of House of the Dragon like I am 5?

    Won't that be a bit of a stretch for you?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    HYUFD said:

    BORIS JOHNSON: I bet Maggie's portrait is glad it no longer has to share an office with Starmer Chameleon - the only PM in history to look at the world through sleaze-tainted specs
    https://x.com/MailOnline/status/1829550581020540940

    Errrr...please tell me that's a spoof.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,369
    Leon said:

    Can someone explain the basic plot of House of the Dragon like I am 5?

    One lot of incestuous families are fighting for the crown against another lot of incestuous families. They have some dragons. And it’s all based on some dippy but hot woman misinterpreting what her dying husband was wittering on his death bed.

    All without Carice van Houten and Emilia Clarke getting naked so obviously not a patch on game of thrones.

    That’s it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,866
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    BORIS JOHNSON: I bet Maggie's portrait is glad it no longer has to share an office with Starmer Chameleon - the only PM in history to look at the world through sleaze-tainted specs
    https://x.com/MailOnline/status/1829550581020540940

    Errrr...please tell me that's a spoof.
    Goof not Spoof.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Can someone explain the basic plot of House of the Dragon like I am 5?

    One lot of incestuous families are fighting for the crown against another lot of incestuous families. They have some dragons. And it’s all based on some dippy but hot woman misinterpreting what her dying husband was wittering on his death bed.

    All without Carice van Houten and Emilia Clarke getting naked so obviously not a patch on game of thrones.

    That’s it.
    About the only good thing I can say about House of the Dragon is it's not quite as bad as the Rings of Power.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,544
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    BORIS JOHNSON: I bet Maggie's portrait is glad it no longer has to share an office with Starmer Chameleon - the only PM in history to look at the world through sleaze-tainted specs
    https://x.com/MailOnline/status/1829550581020540940

    Errrr...please tell me that's a spoof.
    The kindest interpretation is that he's modelling himself on Chris Evans... when he was trying to get sacked from Radio One.

    The other is that Beano Boris is still incredibly bitter at being bested by Boring Old Starmer. When does Starmer overtake BoJo in the PM longevity chart?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Can someone explain the basic plot of House of the Dragon like I am 5?

    One lot of incestuous families are fighting for the crown against another lot of incestuous families. They have some dragons. And it’s all based on some dippy but hot woman misinterpreting what her dying husband was wittering on his death bed.

    All without Carice van Houten and Emilia Clarke getting naked so obviously not a patch on game of thrones.

    That’s it.
    Cheers. That’s good enough for me. I like it

    I like the whole aesthetic and let it wash over me pleasantly

    I know a guy - quite well - that DUMPED Emilia Clarke when she was about 21 and just before her fame. Imagine the pain on so many levels - especially sexual
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    BORIS JOHNSON: I bet Maggie's portrait is glad it no longer has to share an office with Starmer Chameleon - the only PM in history to look at the world through sleaze-tainted specs
    https://x.com/MailOnline/status/1829550581020540940

    Errrr...please tell me that's a spoof.
    The kindest interpretation is that he's modelling himself on Chris Evans... when he was trying to get sacked from Radio One.

    The other is that Beano Boris is still incredibly bitter at being bested by Boring Old Starmer. When does Starmer overtake BoJo in the PM longevity chart?
    The kindest interpretation is that he's been to about six works meeting.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,369
    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Can someone explain the basic plot of House of the Dragon like I am 5?

    One lot of incestuous families are fighting for the crown against another lot of incestuous families. They have some dragons. And it’s all based on some dippy but hot woman misinterpreting what her dying husband was wittering on his death bed.

    All without Carice van Houten and Emilia Clarke getting naked so obviously not a patch on game of thrones.

    That’s it.
    About the only good thing I can say about House of the Dragon is it's not quite as bad as the Rings of Power.
    I started watching a series called “Brassic” today as Clarkson had recommended it and I have not laughed so much at a programme for a million years. It’s like all the best bits from the gentlemen, lock stock, snatch, trainspotting rolled into one. One petty crime by a group of guys in a northern mill town just spirals into more and more trouble. Very funny and well written and acted.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,369
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Can someone explain the basic plot of House of the Dragon like I am 5?

    One lot of incestuous families are fighting for the crown against another lot of incestuous families. They have some dragons. And it’s all based on some dippy but hot woman misinterpreting what her dying husband was wittering on his death bed.

    All without Carice van Houten and Emilia Clarke getting naked so obviously not a patch on game of thrones.

    That’s it.
    Cheers. That’s good enough for me. I like it

    I like the whole aesthetic and let it wash over me pleasantly

    I know a guy - quite well - that DUMPED Emilia Clarke when she was about 21 and just before her fame. Imagine the pain on so many levels - especially sexual
    What an idiot, I’ve considered dropping a big donation to her charity so I get to chat her up at an event for it. I’m that cynical.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,022

    Omnium said:

    MattW said:

    On a piece of good news wrt rentals - the 10 year Fire Angel CO alarm I ordered whilst commenting last night just arrived from Amazon.

    £21.00 delivered. £1.75 per annum. The basic stuff is cheap, and not difficult.

    I have a google nest (owners before left them) fire alarm - all it really does is ruin my cooking of steaks.
    Yes, they are terrible for that. Although at least you know you have the fat (just about) hot enough when they go off.
    Good evening

    Our fire service called, complete with fire engine, and went to every house in the street to check if they had fire alarms

    As it so happens they installed 2 new ones for those they installed 2 years previously

    Amazing that at 2.15 am three weeks later the new landing alarm went off frightening my dear wife considerably, and after checking the whole house it was a false alarm

    I phoned the fire service and next day they arrived outside, complete with fire engine again, and replaced the alarm that had been installed a few weeks earlier

    And fair play, all this attention is provided entirely free to the community

    So if anyone wants a free fire alarm and fire safety check speak to your local fire brigade
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,910

    algarkirk said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I feel like I am divorcing my own country. It’s quite odd

    Much of the rot was there, happening under a series of hapless conservative governments playing games thinking the important decisions were been made by them in Westminster.
    But it’s eerily like falling out of love and realising a relationship is over. You go from overly praising to overly criticising. I remember in that divorce movie from decades ago “the wars of the roses” the female character says to her soon-to-be-ex-husband “I now dislike you so much the way you eat makes me want to kill you”

    The way Britain eats makes me want to kill Britain. This is an overreaction. Me and the UK have had a kind of trial separation and I’m generally happier away from the marital home so it’s likely time to make it permanent
    You and Shamima Begum need to do a sort of swap. You get a Syrian passport and she gets her old UK one back. Everyone a winner.
    Why does anyone win if Shamima Begum returns to the UK?
    Well, she does. I imagine a prison cell at Downview would be paradise compared to a refugee camp in Syria/Turkey/Lebannon/Iraq.
    The people working to return her to the U.K. are quite clear that they will fight any attempt to try her.
    Thankfully that decision is not in their gift.
    Apparently, actual witness to her crimes aren’t good witnesses. Because they might be a bit biased against ISIS….

    And charging her with War Crimes would be naughty or something.
    If the witnesses aren't "good witnesses" isn't that up to the jury to decide based on what is put before them by the prosecution and defence?
    How was this issue managed at Nuremberg?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 53,240
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Can someone explain the basic plot of House of the Dragon like I am 5?

    One lot of incestuous families are fighting for the crown against another lot of incestuous families. They have some dragons. And it’s all based on some dippy but hot woman misinterpreting what her dying husband was wittering on his death bed.

    All without Carice van Houten and Emilia Clarke getting naked so obviously not a patch on game of thrones.

    That’s it.
    Cheers. That’s good enough for me. I like it

    I like the whole aesthetic and let it wash over me pleasantly

    I know a guy - quite well - that DUMPED Emilia Clarke when she was about 21 and just before her fame. Imagine the pain on so many levels - especially sexual
    What an idiot, I’ve considered dropping a big donation to her charity so I get to chat her up at an event for it. I’m that cynical.
    Even worse HIS acting career has gone to shit since and she was really in love with him and would have married him

    So even as he got poorer and unfamous he would have been able to say “yeah, well, you know that Emilia Clarke? Yeah, I’m bang- Oh. Wait. I’m not”

    Ouch
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Can someone explain the basic plot of House of the Dragon like I am 5?

    One lot of incestuous families are fighting for the crown against another lot of incestuous families. They have some dragons. And it’s all based on some dippy but hot woman misinterpreting what her dying husband was wittering on his death bed.

    All without Carice van Houten and Emilia Clarke getting naked so obviously not a patch on game of thrones.

    That’s it.
    Cheers. That’s good enough for me. I like it

    I like the whole aesthetic and let it wash over me pleasantly

    I know a guy - quite well - that DUMPED Emilia Clarke when she was about 21 and just before her fame. Imagine the pain on so many levels - especially sexual
    I know someone who dumped Sade when she told him she was flying to New York to pursue her singing career - but the pain was eased 15 years later when he found himself playing in a ninth tier rugby team with me.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,910
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Then again, why would I want to leave Britain

    *stares at horizon, thoughtfully*


    Would such sights have the same power without some time spent under an iron-grey sky at 15c in August?
    I’ll be back for a week or two around Christmas new year. A few days of the British January should suffice. Don’t you think?
    Dealing with January is straightforward; forget the modern rules. The Season of Christmas embraces Epiphany and runs for 40 days from the evening of 24th December to 2nd February inclusive. It is not possible for Lent to start before 4th February, so this causes no problem.

    Instead of this dry January nonsense, you start Christmas at the proper time, and continue marking it for the 40 days. Other people love to be part of this, as they have mostly overfilled their diaries in December with pre Christmas stuff, and January is a vacant space when they have been led to believe they should be miserable. This is pagan post-Christian nonsense and makes January depressing when it should not be. And I live in the north where the sun rises about 11.30am and sets about 2pm. Try it.
    I love seasons. The harshness of a January frost, a dull autumn day, an October storm are all balanced by a sparkling May day, or a languid hot, July scorcher.
    I cannot abide too much T20 for the same reason. Too much of ‘same’ weather is as bad as too much slogfest cricket.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,274

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Thanks for confirming you have no fucking idea about this.

    The difference is that Truss was proposing massive tax cuts and massive increase in public spending.

    But I love the idea that the markets are lefties.

    I have worked in this sector for over thirteen years and you are talking utter shite.

    The markets in the form of Larry and BlackRock have only one objective, maximising their returns, not propping up leftie governments, which is why he does deals with Saudi Arabia and the NYC Police Association despite lefties telling him to divest.
    "you are talking utter shite" could (and is) said about EVERY single PBers SOME of the time.

    However, some PBers DO abuse the privlege WAY more than average.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    edited August 31

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    @DCBMEP
    Big news for
    @RobertJenrick as Chairman of ERG and leading Brexiteer Mark Francois backs Jenrick: “I believe that Robert Jenrick is the best one to unite our Party and lead us back into Government.”
    https://x.com/DCBMEP/status/1829860523476971648

    Good news for someone... But who?
    It’s going to be Jenrick. He can make the kids cry so maybe he can make SKS cry too. Scrub those pictures of D:Ream off the walls.
    He looks set to be the last right-winger standing (Patel seems to be going nowhere and Badenoch gets people's backs up) so he probably wins with the membership.

    But he is the embodiment of "we were right and the electorate were wrong."
    No that would be more Badenoch or Patel. Jenrick was even a Remainer Cameroon once but you cannot become PM first without promising things to the membership, as even Starmer did in his pledge list to members in 2020
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003



    Divorced. Beheaded. Live.

    Picture of the day, had an amazing time seeing Six at Salford, was great, would highly recommend.

    We saw it in Oxford, a very lively show
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,446
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Can someone explain the basic plot of House of the Dragon like I am 5?

    One lot of incestuous families are fighting for the crown against another lot of incestuous families. They have some dragons. And it’s all based on some dippy but hot woman misinterpreting what her dying husband was wittering on his death bed.

    All without Carice van Houten and Emilia Clarke getting naked so obviously not a patch on game of thrones.

    That’s it.
    Cheers. That’s good enough for me. I like it

    I like the whole aesthetic and let it wash over me pleasantly

    I know a guy - quite well - that DUMPED Emilia Clarke when she was about 21 and just before her fame. Imagine the pain on so many levels - especially sexual
    What an idiot, I’ve considered dropping a big donation to her charity so I get to chat her up at an event for it. I’m that cynical.
    Even worse HIS acting career has gone to shit since and she was really in love with him and would have married him

    So even as he got poorer and unfamous he would have been able to say “yeah, well, you know that Emilia Clarke? Yeah, I’m bang- Oh. Wait. I’m not”

    Ouch
    You never know, he might have been holding her back. Perhaps it took being dumped by him to make her into the global star she is today?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,369
    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Can someone explain the basic plot of House of the Dragon like I am 5?

    One lot of incestuous families are fighting for the crown against another lot of incestuous families. They have some dragons. And it’s all based on some dippy but hot woman misinterpreting what her dying husband was wittering on his death bed.

    All without Carice van Houten and Emilia Clarke getting naked so obviously not a patch on game of thrones.

    That’s it.
    Cheers. That’s good enough for me. I like it

    I like the whole aesthetic and let it wash over me pleasantly

    I know a guy - quite well - that DUMPED Emilia Clarke when she was about 21 and just before her fame. Imagine the pain on so many levels - especially sexual
    What an idiot, I’ve considered dropping a big donation to her charity so I get to chat her up at an event for it. I’m that cynical.
    Even worse HIS acting career has gone to shit since and she was really in love with him and would have married him

    So even as he got poorer and unfamous he would have been able to say “yeah, well, you know that Emilia Clarke? Yeah, I’m bang- Oh. Wait. I’m not”

    Ouch
    When I was at University I was modelling for magazines (not gay times) and used to go to a lot of good parties. Ended up having a fling with an unnamed singer from a 90s band and then had the opportunity to have a night with my favourite page 3 girl which I obviously couldn’t refuse. Singer found out and weirdly wasn’t impressed - thing is she was in a relationship so had no right to get the hump. Luckily she was no Taylor Swift so no cannon of songs about me being an arsehole.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,274
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    At least a 10% chance. The numbers aren't rosy. Same if by some miracle the Cons had got back. In fact Truss had a go at accelerating things. That was pretty close.
    At some point the policy of reducing debt as a % of GDP in the fifth year from 'now' ('now' going forward 12 months every year, ie, never, I am not making this up) by continuing to borrow an additional £100bn+ per annum and of course not paying any of it back will come home to roost. (USA might take longer, but it must happen one day).
    Yes I'm a little bit Trad on this matter of national debt. I'd like to see it coming down. I believe in tax and spend not borrow and spend.
    No way you could be a 21st-century USA Republican then.

    Since the heyday of St Ronald, and the "deficits don't matter" Cheney-Bush Administration, the policy AND practice of the GOP has been tax CUTTING for corporate interests, in order to spend AND borrow, the later on the backs of generations yet unborn.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 16,962
    HYUFD said:

    BORIS JOHNSON: I bet Maggie's portrait is glad it no longer has to share an office with Starmer Chameleon - the only PM in history to look at the world through sleaze-tainted specs
    https://x.com/MailOnline/status/1829550581020540940

    So much to unpack in one sentence, but I can't be bothered. The Mail presumably thinks Boris Johnson worth the Megabucks they are paying him. Fine. The rest can cast him into blissful oblivion.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 214

    So when does this slumlord lose the Labour whip ?

    A Labour MP has said he is "shocked" and "profoundly sorry" after it was revealed flats he rents out had black mould and ant infestations.

    Jas Athwal, who became the MP for Ilford South in July, said his tenants had been "let down", and pledged that repairs and maintenance work would be completed "swiftly".

    He also said he had not previously been aware of the problems by highlighted in a BBC report due to the properties being managed by an agency.

    Paul Canal, Conservative leader for Redbridge Council, in north-east London, called for Mr Athwal to resign as a councillor "immediately", describing the conditions of properties owned by Mr Athwal as a "disgrace".

    "His role as a councillor is untenable," Mr Canal said.

    He said he had called for Redbridge Council to investigate whether Mr Athwal had breached its code of conduct, echoing a similar call made by Andrew Boff, a Conservative member of the London Assembly.

    Mr Athwal owns 15 properties, making him the biggest landlord in the House of Commons. The BBC found flats owned by him contained dirty communal areas, lights that did not work and fire alarms hanging loose from the ceiling.

    ...

    The Labour MP also admitted that his flats did not have the correct property licences under a scheme he introduced as the leader of Redbridge Council.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9qgd4q49gvo

    its so common in London, there are so many migrants from the Indian sub continent living in HMOs, often let out by people from the Sub continent it self
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,358
    edited August 31
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    At least a 10% chance. The numbers aren't rosy. Same if by some miracle the Cons had got back. In fact Truss had a go at accelerating things. That was pretty close.
    At some point the policy of reducing debt as a % of GDP in the fifth year from 'now' ('now' going forward 12 months every year, ie, never, I am not making this up) by continuing to borrow an additional £100bn+ per annum and of course not paying any of it back will come home to roost. (USA might take longer, but it must happen one day).
    Yes I'm a little bit Trad on this matter of national debt. I'd like to see it coming down. I believe in tax and spend not borrow and spend.
    I can't believe there's anyone who thinks getting the national debt down isn't important, whatever their political slant is.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,969
    Test
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,274
    edited August 31
    Latest news flash from the (clearly deeply Anglophobic) New York Times:

    NYT - Older Adults Do Not Benefit From Moderate Drinking, Large Study Finds

    Virtually any amount increased the risk for cancer, and there were no heart benefits, the researchers reported.

    Even light drinking was associated with an increase in cancer deaths among older adults in Britain, researchers reported on Monday in a large study. But the risk was accentuated primarily in those who had existing health problems or who lived in low-income areas.

    The study, which tracked 135,103 adults aged 60 and older for 12 years, also punctures the long-held belief that light or moderate alcohol consumption is good for the heart.

    The researchers found no reduction in heart disease deaths among light or moderate drinkers, regardless of this health or socioeconomic status, when compared with occasional drinkers.

    The study defined light drinking as a mean alcohol intake of up to 20 grams a day for men and up to 10 grams daily for women. . . .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,627
    GIN1138 said:

    Test

    Going OK right now. 8 more wickets needed.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,676

    Tres said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Thanks for confirming you have no fucking idea about this.

    The difference is that Truss was proposing massive tax cuts and massive increase in public spending.

    But I love the idea that the markets are lefties.

    I have worked in this sector for over thirteen years and you are talking utter shite.

    The markets in the form of Larry and BlackRock have only one objective, maximising their returns, not propping up leftie governments, which is why he does deals with Saudi Arabia and the NYC Police Association despite lefties telling him to divest.
    Whilst I agree. They're hardly likely to clue the lawyers in to their thinking are they?
    Well you see, some of their articles of association and contracts say they must only invest in countries/companies with a good credit rating/outlook.

    The clients of BlackRock would be furious if their money was being used to bring down governments, they want maximum returns.

    Lawyers and compliance managers are often asked to look over said investment strategies and contracts.
    Come along. If you are fully informed, as a lawyer, I'll eat a few hats.

    Lawyers and compliance managers only ever see part-baked stuff.
    I love the idea that there was a conspiracy of billionaire fund managers to bring down Liz Truss. Absolutely nuts.
    When I am at Davos next year I'll have a chat with them all about why they hated Liz Truss so much.
    I don't suppose they'll be able to impart an awful lot as they're passing you their coats, but do report back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    At least a 10% chance. The numbers aren't rosy. Same if by some miracle the Cons had got back. In fact Truss had a go at accelerating things. That was pretty close.
    At some point the policy of reducing debt as a % of GDP in the fifth year from 'now' ('now' going forward 12 months every year, ie, never, I am not making this up) by continuing to borrow an additional £100bn+ per annum and of course not paying any of it back will come home to roost. (USA might take longer, but it must happen one day).
    Yes I'm a little bit Trad on this matter of national debt. I'd like to see it coming down. I believe in tax and spend not borrow and spend.
    No way you could be a 21st-century USA Republican then.

    Since the heyday of St Ronald, and the "deficits don't matter" Cheney-Bush Administration, the policy AND practice of the GOP has been tax CUTTING for corporate interests, in order to spend AND borrow, the later on the backs of generations yet unborn.
    Bush Snr agreed a deal with the Democratic Congress to put up some taxes to cut the deficit. Even if it saw him leak conservative voters to Buchanan in the 1992 primaries and Perot in the general it left a largely balanced budget for Bill Clinton to inherit when he succeeded him
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,969
    HYUFD said:

    @DCBMEP
    Big news for
    @RobertJenrick as Chairman of ERG and leading Brexiteer Mark Francois backs Jenrick: “I believe that Robert Jenrick is the best one to unite our Party and lead us back into Government.”
    https://x.com/DCBMEP/status/1829860523476971648

    The ERG is still a... "thing" then?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    @DCBMEP
    Big news for
    @RobertJenrick as Chairman of ERG and leading Brexiteer Mark Francois backs Jenrick: “I believe that Robert Jenrick is the best one to unite our Party and lead us back into Government.”
    https://x.com/DCBMEP/status/1829860523476971648

    The ERG is still a... "thing" then?
    Yes and it still has MPs votes from its caucus it seems
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,757
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Then again, why would I want to leave Britain

    *stares at horizon, thoughtfully*


    Would such sights have the same power without some time spent under an iron-grey sky at 15c in August?
    I’ll be back for a week or two around Christmas new year. A few days of the British January should suffice. Don’t you think?
    You seem to be out of the country 90% of the year - why the need to divorce the UK? You are never here.
    Honestly. I think it’s emotional. I want the decree nisi

    Weird but true
    It’s not you dear, it’s us.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,274
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    At least a 10% chance. The numbers aren't rosy. Same if by some miracle the Cons had got back. In fact Truss had a go at accelerating things. That was pretty close.
    At some point the policy of reducing debt as a % of GDP in the fifth year from 'now' ('now' going forward 12 months every year, ie, never, I am not making this up) by continuing to borrow an additional £100bn+ per annum and of course not paying any of it back will come home to roost. (USA might take longer, but it must happen one day).
    Yes I'm a little bit Trad on this matter of national debt. I'd like to see it coming down. I believe in tax and spend not borrow and spend.
    No way you could be a 21st-century USA Republican then.

    Since the heyday of St Ronald, and the "deficits don't matter" Cheney-Bush Administration, the policy AND practice of the GOP has been tax CUTTING for corporate interests, in order to spend AND borrow, the later on the backs of generations yet unborn.
    Bush Snr agreed a deal with the Democratic Congress to put up some taxes to cut the deficit. Even if it saw him leak conservative voters to Buchanan in the 1992 primaries and Perot in the general it left a largely balanced budget for Bill Clinton to inherit when he succeeded him
    Some PBers may NOT realize, that the 1990s were NOT in the 21st century?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517

    Tres said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Thanks for confirming you have no fucking idea about this.

    The difference is that Truss was proposing massive tax cuts and massive increase in public spending.

    But I love the idea that the markets are lefties.

    I have worked in this sector for over thirteen years and you are talking utter shite.

    The markets in the form of Larry and BlackRock have only one objective, maximising their returns, not propping up leftie governments, which is why he does deals with Saudi Arabia and the NYC Police Association despite lefties telling him to divest.
    Whilst I agree. They're hardly likely to clue the lawyers in to their thinking are they?
    Well you see, some of their articles of association and contracts say they must only invest in countries/companies with a good credit rating/outlook.

    The clients of BlackRock would be furious if their money was being used to bring down governments, they want maximum returns.

    Lawyers and compliance managers are often asked to look over said investment strategies and contracts.
    Come along. If you are fully informed, as a lawyer, I'll eat a few hats.

    Lawyers and compliance managers only ever see part-baked stuff.
    I love the idea that there was a conspiracy of billionaire fund managers to bring down Liz Truss. Absolutely nuts.
    When I am at Davos next year I'll have a chat with them all about why they hated Liz Truss so much.
    I don't suppose they'll be able to impart an awful lot as they're passing you their coats, but do report back.
    Last time I was on hooker watch, making sure none of them got close to us.

    There are so many escorts at Davos, it's like the queue for Oasis tickets.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,866
    edited August 31
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Can someone explain the basic plot of House of the Dragon like I am 5?

    One lot of incestuous families are fighting for the crown against another lot of incestuous families. They have some dragons. And it’s all based on some dippy but hot woman misinterpreting what her dying husband was wittering on his death bed.

    All without Carice van Houten and Emilia Clarke getting naked so obviously not a patch on game of thrones.

    That’s it.
    Cheers. That’s good enough for me. I like it

    I like the whole aesthetic and let it wash over me pleasantly

    I know a guy - quite well - that DUMPED Emilia Clarke when she was about 21 and just before her fame. Imagine the pain on so many levels - especially sexual
    What an idiot, I’ve considered dropping a big donation to her charity so I get to chat her up at an event for it. I’m that cynical.
    Even worse HIS acting career has gone to shit since and she was really in love with him and would have married him

    So even as he got poorer and unfamous he would have been able to say “yeah, well, you know that Emilia Clarke? Yeah, I’m bang- Oh. Wait. I’m not”

    Ouch
    When I was at University I was modelling for magazines (not gay times) and used to go to a lot of good parties. Ended up having a fling with an unnamed singer from a 90s band and then had the opportunity to have a night with my favourite page 3 girl which I obviously couldn’t refuse. Singer found out and weirdly wasn’t impressed - thing is she was in a relationship so had no right to get the hump. Luckily she was no Taylor Swift so no cannon of songs about me being an arsehole.
    I might be inclined to think you are The Devil, or nearly Christ, but that would just be a musing. :wink:
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,196

    darkage said:

    I cannot stop laughing at Keir Starmer talking with Olaf Scholz about how to defeat the far right, when the SPD are about to be obliterated by the 'far right' AFD, polling in single figures in large parts of Germany. The labour party seem destined to suffer the exact same fate as the mainstream social democratic parties around Europe.

    Yes, the Labour Party is finished. After all, they only got a parliamentary majority of 172 back in July.
    And, in 4 August polls, their lead over the Tories averages at 9%.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,533
    First!

    ...

    Oh.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112

    Latest news flash from the (clearly deeply Anglophobic) New York Times:

    NYT - Older Adults Do Not Benefit From Moderate Drinking, Large Study Finds

    Virtually any amount increased the risk for cancer, and there were no heart benefits, the researchers reported.

    Even light drinking was associated with an increase in cancer deaths among older adults in Britain, researchers reported on Monday in a large study. But the risk was accentuated primarily in those who had existing health problems or who lived in low-income areas.

    The study, which tracked 135,103 adults aged 60 and older for 12 years, also punctures the long-held belief that light or moderate alcohol consumption is good for the heart.

    The researchers found no reduction in heart disease deaths among light or moderate drinkers, regardless of this health or socioeconomic status, when compared with occasional drinkers.

    The study defined light drinking as a mean alcohol intake of up to 20 grams a day for men and up to 10 grams daily for women. . . .

    Bastards
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,358
    "How bad maps win elections - Gerrymandering explained
    Jay Foreman"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwBslntC3xg
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,676
    edited August 31

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Also I’m done with supporting Britain’s gambling habit and cosmetics bills

    You've lost me now.
    £8bn a year on workless migrants (possibly as high as £20bn). £4-7bn on asylum seekers. Annually.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13794959/Record-numbers-migrants-living-Britain-jobless.html

    Pointless pointless waste of money and the government seems unable to stop spending this and the bills are going up - likewise our taxes

    I really don’t mind paying a lot of tax to support hardworking Brits who get sick or those who’ve fallen on tough times. That’s fair

    But this???? What sane person agrees to spend their tax on this?
    Er, you're straying into politics, I think?
    I believe there is a non-trivial chance this Labour government will run out of money and face a bond-market crisis
    It has been theorised that Larry Fink of Black Rock (an entity that owns shares in every single FTSE 100 campany) decided to hammer UK bonds till the Truss Government fell. I have no evidence for that, and it may or may not be true, but nevertheless, the idea of 'the markets' as impartial measuring automatons that flick to 'bad egg' when they see a damaging fiscal event is extremely gauche. Markets consist of powerful institutions and people with political aims, not just a shoal of small investors.

    That's why I have a hunch you'll find the bond markets a lot, lot kinder to Reeves' overspending than they were to Truss' tax cuts. Even if the projected net result of the former is worse than the projected net result of the former.
    Thanks for confirming you have no fucking idea about this.

    The difference is that Truss was proposing massive tax cuts and massive increase in public spending.

    But I love the idea that the markets are lefties.

    I have worked in this sector for over thirteen years and you are talking utter shite.

    The markets in the form of Larry and BlackRock have only one objective, maximising their returns, not propping up leftie governments, which is why he does deals with Saudi Arabia and the NYC Police Association despite lefties telling him to divest.
    You're responding to something that you suppose I've said, not that I've actually said. I'm not suggesting that the relevant actors are teenage communists with Che Guevara posters in their bedrooms. Of course Black Rock are acting to maximise their bottom line - the suggestion that they wanted Truss booted is entirely based on the fact that her deregulatory agenda could have changed the economy in a fashion not conducive to their profits.

    There's an interesting interview with Julian Bishop from the Brunner Investment group here: https://youtu.be/zN3QSJkn_6c?si=UxqdnHBBe5-eDy8m

    One of the most depressing parts is where Bishop recalls that he made his group's displeasure at BP's plans to invest in more capacity clear to the management (the group is a major investor) - because such plans undermined the profits they could make from the high price of energy. Bishop evidently doesn't think of himself as a bad person, and he may even think he's being a good person - he speaks warmly about 'the real price of energy' - there is a convenient aligment between his wish to cut supply and price gouge the consumer, and what he sees as an environmental mission. But it's a very real example of someone in a powerful position acting against supply-side economics that would benefit consumers and the overall British economy.

    I say I have no evidence that Black Rock's buying and selling during the minibudget turbulence was aimed at unseating Truss and her policies, because I don’t. But it's incredibly naive to think that they would not do so if the financial rewards were not there. Why spend several hundred thousand pounds retaining George Osborne if you're not thoroughly invested in the politics of the Tory Party?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,910
    TimS said:

    Latest news flash from the (clearly deeply Anglophobic) New York Times:

    NYT - Older Adults Do Not Benefit From Moderate Drinking, Large Study Finds

    Virtually any amount increased the risk for cancer, and there were no heart benefits, the researchers reported.

    Even light drinking was associated with an increase in cancer deaths among older adults in Britain, researchers reported on Monday in a large study. But the risk was accentuated primarily in those who had existing health problems or who lived in low-income areas.

    The study, which tracked 135,103 adults aged 60 and older for 12 years, also punctures the long-held belief that light or moderate alcohol consumption is good for the heart.

    The researchers found no reduction in heart disease deaths among light or moderate drinkers, regardless of this health or socioeconomic status, when compared with occasional drinkers.

    The study defined light drinking as a mean alcohol intake of up to 20 grams a day for men and up to 10 grams daily for women. . . .

    Bastards
    IIRC the benefits of light and moderate drinking are associated more with red wine than other booze, so perhaps the study needs more nuance (or at least the reporting of it)?
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