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Betfair punters remember this is a close race – politicalbetting.com

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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    iSKS when he was pretending to be left wing: We will close Yarls Wood

    Keir Starmer now: We will increase immigration detention spaces.

    What's the rationale for allowing illegal immigrants to remain in the UK without consequence?

    Which people are you classing as illegal immigrants. People waiting at Yarls Wood would on historic records have an 80% chance of being processed and allowed to stay

    An Assylum seeker is not an illegal immigrant until their claim is rejected.

    You and SKS are playing the right wing racist card shame on you
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    iSKS when he was pretending to be left wing: We will close Yarls Wood

    Keir Starmer now: We will increase immigration detention spaces.

    What's the rationale for allowing illegal immigrants to remain in the UK without consequence?

    Which people are you classing as illegal immigrants. People waiting at Yarls Wood would on historic records have an 80% chance of being processed and allowed to stay

    An Assylum seeker is not an illegal immigrant until their claim is rejected.

    You and SKS are playing the right wing racist card shame on you

    I am opposed to the deportation of anyone whose claim is not first processed.

    Unlike you, I do not actively want the UK government to be racist.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038
    HYUFD said:

    'EXCLUSIVE: SNP ministers have intervened amid plans for a horse trotting track on the Bannockburn battlefield.

    Stirling Council approved the development, but the Scottish Government will now make the final decision'
    https://x.com/ScotNational/status/1826227486138802533

    AIUI, the track is where 1066 and all that says that the spider controlled the battle from.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    iSKS when he was pretending to be left wing: We will close Yarls Wood

    Keir Starmer now: We will increase immigration detention spaces.

    What's the rationale for allowing illegal immigrants to remain in the UK without consequence?

    Which people are you classing as illegal immigrants. People waiting at Yarls Wood would on historic records have an 80% chance of being processed and allowed to stay

    An Assylum seeker is not an illegal immigrant until their claim is rejected.

    You and SKS are playing the right wing racist card shame on you

    I am opposed to the deportation of anyone whose claim is not first processed.

    Unlike you, I do not actively want the UK government to be racist.

    You don't seem to know what you want tbf. When SKS, Ashworth and several other front benches chose Bangladeshhis as the ones they wanted to send home it was pure racism.

    You are complicit and have voted for a racist as PM
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    iSKS when he was pretending to be left wing: We will close Yarls Wood

    Keir Starmer now: We will increase immigration detention spaces.

    What's the rationale for allowing illegal immigrants to remain in the UK without consequence?

    Which people are you classing as illegal immigrants. People waiting at Yarls Wood would on historic records have an 80% chance of being processed and allowed to stay

    An Assylum seeker is not an illegal immigrant until their claim is rejected.

    You and SKS are playing the right wing racist card shame on you

    I am opposed to the deportation of anyone whose claim is not first processed.

    Unlike you, I do not actively want the UK government to be racist.

    You don't seem to know what you want tbf. When SKS, Ashworth and several other front benches chose Bangladeshhis as the ones they wanted to send home it was pure racism.

    You are complicit and have voted for a racist as PM

    OK.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,937
    edited August 21
    ...

    iSKS when he was pretending to be left wing: We will close Yarls Wood

    Keir Starmer now: We will increase immigration detention spaces.

    What's the rationale for allowing illegal immigrants to remain in the UK without consequence?

    Which people are you classing as illegal immigrants. People waiting at Yarls Wood would on historic records have an 80% chance of being processed and allowed to stay

    An Assylum seeker is not an illegal immigrant until their claim is rejected.

    You and SKS are playing the right wing racist card shame on you

    I am opposed to the deportation of anyone whose claim is not first processed.

    Unlike you, I do not actively want the UK government to be racist.

    You don't seem to know what you want tbf. When SKS, Ashworth and several other front benches chose Bangladeshhis as the ones they wanted to send home it was pure racism.

    You are complicit and have voted for a racist as PM
    Forgive me if I am wrong, but I seem to recall you voting for an anti- Semite for PM in both 2017 and 2019.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/document-lists-9-instances-of-anti-semitism-by-corbyn-among-thousands-in-labour/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038
    Foxy said:

    SandraMc said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night I saw Cabaret, about the Kit Kat Club at the tail end of the Weimar Republic and the rise of the Nazis.

    I saw it with my wife, 14 year old son and 16 year old daughter. My daughter was utterly distraught at the end. And I must admit it was not entirely at all age appropriate. However, it was incredibly powerful, in two regards: Firstly, the willingness of ordinary people to shrug their shouders and says "it'll be OK, governments come and go", when bad bad things are coming; and secondly, how easy it is for ordinary people to do things they wouldn't normally do when they are desperate for money.

    I would recommend it to anyone who wants a powerful, but somewhat distressing, evening out.

    Is the 1970s film or have they done a re-make?
    Stage show based on the same Kander & Ebb musical that the film was based.
    The musical was based on an earlier play, that in turn was based on Christopher Isherwood's semi-autobiographical stories. (These were also the inspiration for The Buggles song "I am a Camera".)
    Indeed - Isherwood wrote "Mr Norris Changes Trains" and "Goodbye to Berlin" on which the various films and plays are based. They are outstanding sources for the rise of Hitler and the demi-monde which was Berlin in the 20s and 30s.
    I saw a production at the Old Vic, Bristol, years ago. In the interval, some people were complaining that the actress playing Sally "wasn't as good as Liza Minelli", forgetting that Minelli could have had umpteen takes to achieve her incredible performance.

    Some people think Minelli's performance is too good for the part. Sally is performing in a third-rate club and is riddled with doubts as to whether she is good enough for that. Minelli gives a world class performance.
    There was a very good revival at Curve in Leicester recently.

    Very pertinent in these days of gender and culture wars.

    The beer garden scene is possibly the creepiest scene in musical history.
    It's so clever, not least in how the audience shows such a cross section of German society and how they all end up singing along.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,669

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night I saw Cabaret, about the Kit Kat Club at the tail end of the Weimar Republic and the rise of the Nazis.

    I saw it with my wife, 14 year old son and 16 year old daughter. My daughter was utterly distraught at the end. And I must admit it was not entirely at all age appropriate. However, it was incredibly powerful, in two regards: Firstly, the willingness of ordinary people to shrug their shouders and says "it'll be OK, governments come and go", when bad bad things are coming; and secondly, how easy it is for ordinary people to do things they wouldn't normally do when they are desperate for money.

    I would recommend it to anyone who wants a powerful, but somewhat distressing, evening out.

    Is the 1970s film or have they done a re-make?
    It's a live musical theatre production. And it's quite incredible: the whole theatre has been remade around a central stage, and you are sitting at a table, as if at the actual Kit Kat club. They also have smartly dressed waitresses bringing period agnostic cocktails to your table.

    Luxury... as German society is falling apart around you. It's incredibly disturbing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,984

    NEW THREAD

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,669
    SandraMc said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night I saw Cabaret, about the Kit Kat Club at the tail end of the Weimar Republic and the rise of the Nazis.

    I saw it with my wife, 14 year old son and 16 year old daughter. My daughter was utterly distraught at the end. And I must admit it was not entirely at all age appropriate. However, it was incredibly powerful, in two regards: Firstly, the willingness of ordinary people to shrug their shouders and says "it'll be OK, governments come and go", when bad bad things are coming; and secondly, how easy it is for ordinary people to do things they wouldn't normally do when they are desperate for money.

    I would recommend it to anyone who wants a powerful, but somewhat distressing, evening out.

    Is the 1970s film or have they done a re-make?
    Stage show based on the same Kander & Ebb musical that the film was based.
    The musical was based on an earlier play, that in turn was based on Christopher Isherwood's semi-autobiographical stories. (These were also the inspiration for The Buggles song "I am a Camera".)
    Indeed - Isherwood wrote "Mr Norris Changes Trains" and "Goodbye to Berlin" on which the various films and plays are based. They are outstanding sources for the rise of Hitler and the demi-monde which was Berlin in the 20s and 30s.
    I saw a production at the Old Vic, Bristol, years ago. In the interval, some people were complaining that the actress playing Sally "wasn't as good as Liza Minelli", forgetting that Minelli could have had umpteen takes to achieve her incredible performance.

    Some people think Minelli's performance is too good for the part. Sally is performing in a third-rate club and is riddled with doubts as to whether she is good enough for that. Minelli gives a world class performance.
    SandraMc said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night I saw Cabaret, about the Kit Kat Club at the tail end of the Weimar Republic and the rise of the Nazis.

    I saw it with my wife, 14 year old son and 16 year old daughter. My daughter was utterly distraught at the end. And I must admit it was not entirely at all age appropriate. However, it was incredibly powerful, in two regards: Firstly, the willingness of ordinary people to shrug their shouders and says "it'll be OK, governments come and go", when bad bad things are coming; and secondly, how easy it is for ordinary people to do things they wouldn't normally do when they are desperate for money.

    I would recommend it to anyone who wants a powerful, but somewhat distressing, evening out.

    Is the 1970s film or have they done a re-make?
    Stage show based on the same Kander & Ebb musical that the film was based.
    The musical was based on an earlier play, that in turn was based on Christopher Isherwood's semi-autobiographical stories. (These were also the inspiration for The Buggles song "I am a Camera".)
    Indeed - Isherwood wrote "Mr Norris Changes Trains" and "Goodbye to Berlin" on which the various films and plays are based. They are outstanding sources for the rise of Hitler and the demi-monde which was Berlin in the 20s and 30s.
    I saw a production at the Old Vic, Bristol, years ago. In the interval, some people were complaining that the actress playing Sally "wasn't as good as Liza Minelli", forgetting that Minelli could have had umpteen takes to achieve her incredible performance.

    Some people think Minelli's performance is too good for the part. Sally is performing in a third-rate club and is riddled with doubts as to whether she is good enough for that. Minelli gives a world class performance.
    It's also all she knows, and that combination of ignorance and self doubt, is what leads her to make terrible decisions.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,038

    iSKS when he was pretending to be left wing: We will close Yarls Wood

    Keir Starmer now: We will increase immigration detention spaces.

    What's the rationale for allowing illegal immigrants to remain in the UK without consequence?

    Which people are you classing as illegal immigrants. People waiting at Yarls Wood would on historic records have an 80% chance of being processed and allowed to stay

    An Assylum seeker is not an illegal immigrant until their claim is rejected.

    You and SKS are playing the right wing racist card shame on you

    I am opposed to the deportation of anyone whose claim is not first processed.

    Unlike you, I do not actively want the UK government to be racist.

    There was, in fairness, some progress under the last government in processing claims. The figures from March 24 are

    "there were 14% fewer Asylum applications in the year ending March 2024 (69,298 applications, relating to 86,719 people), in part due to the decrease in claims from Albanian small boat arrivals

    there were more than 4 times as many initial decisions on asylum applications in the year ending March 2024 (87,535 decisions) than in the previous year due to more asylum decision makers and increased productivity

    62% of the initial decisions in year ending March 2024 were grants – a lower proportion than the 74% granted in year ending March 2023

    at the end of March 2024, the number of asylum cases awaiting an initial decision (86,460 cases, relating to 118,329 people) was more than one-third (35%) lower than at the end of March 2023"

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-system-statistics-year-ending-march-2024/summary-of-latest-statistics

    This "initial decision" is not, however, anything like the end of the road. A lot of them will appeal these decisions and a lot of them will be successful. The House of Commons Library report states that 1/3rd of the appeals are successful:
    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/
    So if that trend continues 12.7% needs to be added to the 62% to give an overall success rate of 74.7%.

    Of course, asylum seekers are a relatively small proportion of overall immigration.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,500

    viewcode said:

    Carnyx said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:
    "admitted"? Is it a bad thing?
    If one is a diabetic and the chemists have run out because the trendsetters ...

    (Not sure of current state of play, mind.)
    One of my taxidrivers is a diabetic who went from insulin injections back to tablets because of a shortage. That (shortage of drugs) is now a thing in British healthcare. :(
    Its not really clear why. Its not just Brexit, its the impact of the pandemic among other things. What is surprising is why its not getting fixed. If there is a lack of something the market ought to correct.
    There's a major shortage of ADHD meds too, which has been going on since September last year.

    It's been a continuous topic of conversation amongst my colleagues, about half of whom rely on them. At first, it was mostly about sharing details of pharmacies that still had stocks, or were willing to supply alternative doses - but more recently it's been about sourcing from abroad or the grey or black market. I'm fairly sure that some are using darknet amphetamines too (fine for people who'd been prescribed something similar, but not so good for those previously on methlyphenidate or guanfacine).

    That's fine for skilled, motivated techies - but there'll be a much larger group out there who are dependent on whatever their local pharmacist can get hold of for them. If they're lucky, they might get 5/7 of their prescriptions filled, and be told to take them only on work days, others are being told to take half or even quarter doses.

    The NHS claim it's a result of global supply chain issues, but there doern't seem to be anything like the same problem in France or Ireland (the Irish HPRA removed them from their shortages list back in April).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,547
    rcs1000 said:

    SandraMc said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night I saw Cabaret, about the Kit Kat Club at the tail end of the Weimar Republic and the rise of the Nazis.

    I saw it with my wife, 14 year old son and 16 year old daughter. My daughter was utterly distraught at the end. And I must admit it was not entirely at all age appropriate. However, it was incredibly powerful, in two regards: Firstly, the willingness of ordinary people to shrug their shouders and says "it'll be OK, governments come and go", when bad bad things are coming; and secondly, how easy it is for ordinary people to do things they wouldn't normally do when they are desperate for money.

    I would recommend it to anyone who wants a powerful, but somewhat distressing, evening out.

    Is the 1970s film or have they done a re-make?
    Stage show based on the same Kander & Ebb musical that the film was based.
    The musical was based on an earlier play, that in turn was based on Christopher Isherwood's semi-autobiographical stories. (These were also the inspiration for The Buggles song "I am a Camera".)
    Indeed - Isherwood wrote "Mr Norris Changes Trains" and "Goodbye to Berlin" on which the various films and plays are based. They are outstanding sources for the rise of Hitler and the demi-monde which was Berlin in the 20s and 30s.
    I saw a production at the Old Vic, Bristol, years ago. In the interval, some people were complaining that the actress playing Sally "wasn't as good as Liza Minelli", forgetting that Minelli could have had umpteen takes to achieve her incredible performance.

    Some people think Minelli's performance is too good for the part. Sally is performing in a third-rate club and is riddled with doubts as to whether she is good enough for that. Minelli gives a world class performance.
    SandraMc said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night I saw Cabaret, about the Kit Kat Club at the tail end of the Weimar Republic and the rise of the Nazis.

    I saw it with my wife, 14 year old son and 16 year old daughter. My daughter was utterly distraught at the end. And I must admit it was not entirely at all age appropriate. However, it was incredibly powerful, in two regards: Firstly, the willingness of ordinary people to shrug their shouders and says "it'll be OK, governments come and go", when bad bad things are coming; and secondly, how easy it is for ordinary people to do things they wouldn't normally do when they are desperate for money.

    I would recommend it to anyone who wants a powerful, but somewhat distressing, evening out.

    Is the 1970s film or have they done a re-make?
    Stage show based on the same Kander & Ebb musical that the film was based.
    The musical was based on an earlier play, that in turn was based on Christopher Isherwood's semi-autobiographical stories. (These were also the inspiration for The Buggles song "I am a Camera".)
    Indeed - Isherwood wrote "Mr Norris Changes Trains" and "Goodbye to Berlin" on which the various films and plays are based. They are outstanding sources for the rise of Hitler and the demi-monde which was Berlin in the 20s and 30s.
    I saw a production at the Old Vic, Bristol, years ago. In the interval, some people were complaining that the actress playing Sally "wasn't as good as Liza Minelli", forgetting that Minelli could have had umpteen takes to achieve her incredible performance.

    Some people think Minelli's performance is too good for the part. Sally is performing in a third-rate club and is riddled with doubts as to whether she is good enough for that. Minelli gives a world class performance.
    It's also all she knows, and that combination of ignorance and self doubt, is what leads her to make terrible decisions.
    Christopher Browning in "Ordinary Men" brought out superbly how ordinary people can do terrible things, in the right (or wrong) circumstances.

    War criminals are in the main, not people like Oskar Dirlewanger or Amon Goth. They're people who deliver the post, or run a newsagents.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,731
    edited August 21
    MattW said:

    CCTV of Bayesian yacht going down:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws2ZuiNCFOg

    (Not brilliant quality)

    The mast light is still there at the end of that clip although you can see the yacht heeling over earlier. Did they have their anchor on the wrong side?

    I'm not convinced by this "waterspout" theory though.

    It is possible but it is much more likely to have been a downburst, a related but different phenomenon.
This discussion has been closed.