This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Fact check: Now adjust that for inflation. Not the massaged government figures, but the estimates from private trackers that suggested we peaked between 16 and 24%.
A 6% pay rise is a 10% pay cut in a year when 16% inflation happens.
Look at the prices in the shops, for a can of freeze dried coffee, or a pint in the pub, the cost of renting a flat, and so on if you don't believe that the true rate of inflation in the last few years has been double the headline rate.
Can't access Truflation data beyond last year but seem to remember it topping out at 24% in the UK - way above official levels.
I tend to believe stuff like the big mac index. What was the cost of a big mac in 2021 vs the cost now?
See also - the pint in your local. Up from about a fiver in 2021 for me to seven fifty now (London prices, yes, but tracks with the rise in the price of a big mac, or the rise in rents the FT is tracking, linked to downthread).
The point I am trying to make is not even lower the tax rate, just get the essentials fully funded first then look where to spend the extra if you have any. I just abhor the we will do all the stuff but do it half arsed because we can't afford to do it properly model which we currently seem to be running
I’d approach it from the other end
We tax broadly as much as other western countries. We spend broadly the same on government spending.
Why wasn't he released after being found innocent? (Sorry for being too lazy to find out myself).
In the end, it came down to the ghouls on the Supreme Court. ...The bar to Maharaj’s release was a law that meant evidence of innocence was not enough to free him – and last year the US federal supreme court declined to review it...
So if “evidence of innocence” is not enough to free him, what would be?
The point I am trying to make is not even lower the tax rate, just get the essentials fully funded first then look where to spend the extra if you have any. I just abhor the we will do all the stuff but do it half arsed because we can't afford to do it properly model which we currently seem to be running
I’d approach it from the other end
We tax broadly as much as other western countries. We spend broadly the same on government spending.
And yet our services are much worse.
Where does the money go?
Well 25% of public sector payis added on in pension contributions for a start. Then there is strange wastage where for example nhs trusts want to pay 650 for an iphone when the app they are using was built to work in a 20£ android
The point I am trying to make is not even lower the tax rate, just get the essentials fully funded first then look where to spend the extra if you have any. I just abhor the we will do all the stuff but do it half arsed because we can't afford to do it properly model which we currently seem to be running
I’d approach it from the other end
We tax broadly as much as other western countries. We spend broadly the same on government spending.
And yet our services are much worse.
Where does the money go?
Britain taxes less than Euros and more than the USA. Public services are less extensive than elsewhere in Western Europe but more extensive than in the States. I don't see the mystery.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Fact check: Now adjust that for inflation. Not the massaged government figures, but the estimates from private trackers that suggested we peaked between 16 and 24%.
A 6% pay rise is a 10% pay cut in a year when 16% inflation happens.
Look at the prices in the shops, for a can of freeze dried coffee, or a pint in the pub, the cost of renting a flat, and so on if you don't believe that the true rate of inflation in the last few years has been double the headline rate.
Can't access Truflation data beyond last year but seem to remember it topping out at 24% in the UK - way above official levels.
I tend to believe stuff like the big mac index. What was the cost of a big mac in 2021 vs the cost now?
See also - the pint in your local. Up from about a fiver in 2021 for me to seven fifty now (London prices, yes, but tracks with the rise in the price of a big mac, or the rise in rents the FT is tracking, linked to downthread).
This shows the North - South madness to an extent. IIRC a pint in the pub at the heritage railway I'm involved with in Stoke on Trent is currently £3.85, (up from £3.50 pre-pandemic) and we recently decided not to push it to £4.00 because it would dent sales - it's not hard to find a pint in our area for under £4.
Fact check: Now adjust that for inflation. Not the massaged government figures, but the estimates from private trackers that suggested we peaked between 16 and 24%.
A 6% pay rise is a 10% pay cut in a year when 16% inflation happens.
Look at the prices in the shops, for a can of freeze dried coffee, or a pint in the pub, the cost of renting a flat, and so on if you don't believe that the true rate of inflation in the last few years has been double the headline rate.
Can't access Truflation data beyond last year but seem to remember it topping out at 24% in the UK - way above official levels.
I tend to believe stuff like the big mac index. What was the cost of a big mac in 2021 vs the cost now?
See also - the pint in your local. Up from about a fiver in 2021 for me to seven fifty now (London prices, yes, but tracks with the rise in the price of a big mac, or the rise in rents the FT is tracking, linked to downthread).
This shows the North - South madness to an extent. IIRC a pint in the pub at the heritage railway I'm involved with in Stoke on Trent is currently £3.85, (up from £3.50 pre-pandemic) and we recently decided not to push it to £4.00 because it would dent sales - it's not hard to find a pint in our area for under £4.
Yep. Links to what I was saying downthread, everyone's personal inflation rate will be different and the headline rate won't match reality for some - or many.
As per the FT's report on 'cheapflation' there's strong evidence the poorest have been hit the worst over the last few years by the price of basics going up, but when your main costs are determined by, say, renting the roof over your head, London is always going to be a bit more mental than quiet bits of the North. Ditto the price of a pint.
1) Defence 2) A free at point of use health service that is effective 3) Law and order ( covers police, judicial and border control) 4) Free education to 18 that is good education 5) A safety net for those that fall on hard times (though I think the safety net should be time limited except in the case of extreme disability)
In my view till we have all 5 working we shouldn't be funding other stuff
Social care for the elderly. Pensions for the retired. public sector housing. Roads. Water, sewage and other infrastructure. The foreign office. Our University system.
So many necessary public services without which we would not have a working, wealth creating society. I'm open to the idea the State tries to do too much and spreads itself too thin but your list is way too short.
Pensions for the retired and social care for those who cant pay is part of the safety net
Students can pay for their degrees, Water and sewage is already privatised we do need a I agree a stronger ofwat. The foreign office is largely a waste of space and I doubt any of us would notice if it was culled to about 5%. For example do we need an embassy in every country...we could probably manage with a consulate officer in mosts sharing an embassy with other countries. Roads just hypothecate road tax and fuel duty its more than enough to pay for those
Disappointed that you're already compromising and willing to fund the Foreign Office.
What about the Royal family?
I am not a royalist so don't really care, and the only reason to fund any foreign office is to have a consulate officer there is for citizens who have problems abroad. I regard it as part of the safety net.
I don't really know what the Foreign Office does or achieves, so I'd have to find out before agreeing to cut it by 95% - some of it might be important.
No on knows what the foreign office really does apart from the obvious helping out citizens abroad. They however employ 17000 to do it, given 260 or so countries thats 65 employees per country
Think of it like an insurance policy
It doesn’t matter. Until it does.
I am not asking them to cut the help part, do we really need expensive embassies however that are well staffed or could say us, norway, germany , france, etc just club together and have one building each wish 1 or 2 consulate officers and the rest of the costs split....would it really effect the help they give?
If we have 24 hours advanced notice of Russian plans to invade Estonia that is worth every penny.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Reading that, the sentence seems totally disproportionate to the crime. She expressed an opinion she probably didn't even really hold (I doubt if you gave her a mosque full of adults and an explosive charge, completely free of legal consequence, she would actually push the plunger), suggesting she would prefer this unpleasant outcome to the community clear up that was actually ongoing.
Personally, I'd rather permit this sort of unpleasant speech than lose free speech, but even if you say that these sorts of sentiments are beyond the pale, and should be illegal, for a first time offender of previous good character, surely this is the sort of thing where community service would actually be a good answer.
She's likely to take it seriously, and not repeat offend. I can't see any useful purpose to be gained by imprisonment in this case - it's going to cost us a fortune, ruin her life, and at the end of it she'll probably be more convinced/radicalised that Tommy Robinson et-al are right about the system being rigged against "normal" people.
Why wasn't he released after being found innocent? (Sorry for being too lazy to find out myself).
In the end, it came down to the ghouls on the Supreme Court. ...The bar to Maharaj’s release was a law that meant evidence of innocence was not enough to free him – and last year the US federal supreme court declined to review it...
So if “evidence of innocence” is not enough to free him, what would be?
The short answer is that the higher courts found the evidence of innocence either inadmissible (hearsay) or immaterial to the verdict.
"Scotland’s only Catholic boarding school has announced its closure, citing Labour’s plans to impose VAT from January as a factor.
Kilgraston School in Perthshire said on Tuesday that it had closed with immediate effect.
Parents, staff and former pupils were informed of the decision to close on Tuesday, with current students to be offered places at nearby private schools Glenalmond College and Craigclowan School.
It came after a planned sale fell through. The school, which was founded in 1930, said Achieve Education, the education provider, had pulled out of the deal after it “reassessed its commitment to investing in the school”."
Why wasn't he released after being found innocent? (Sorry for being too lazy to find out myself).
In the end, it came down to the ghouls on the Supreme Court. ...The bar to Maharaj’s release was a law that meant evidence of innocence was not enough to free him – and last year the US federal supreme court declined to review it...
So if “evidence of innocence” is not enough to free him, what would be?
An appeal court overturning his conviction, which the federal circuit and supreme courts refused to do.
Just as we've seen in the UK, if your post trial appeals are rejected, it is extraordinarily difficult to get the legal system to overturn even blatant error.
In the US there's an even stronger institutional bias, since federal courts are unwilling to overturn state verdicts, irrespective of the facts of the case.
I very very rarely remember any dreams, but I've just woken with the very clear recollection of dreaming i was at a very awkward family barbecue with Donald Trump as my father in law. True story.
Now, I am not married and to ensure this was not a prophetic dream I must ensure I never do even if Tiffany Trump asks, and I also probably will never sleep again.
Either way it's the body's way of saying too much politics.
Why wasn't he released after being found innocent? (Sorry for being too lazy to find out myself).
In the end, it came down to the ghouls on the Supreme Court. ...The bar to Maharaj’s release was a law that meant evidence of innocence was not enough to free him – and last year the US federal supreme court declined to review it...
So if “evidence of innocence” is not enough to free him, what would be?
The short answer is that the higher courts found the evidence of innocence either inadmissible (hearsay) or immaterial to the verdict.
Or that Florida has a shitty criminal justice system even by US standards.
Trump: “Net zero. They have no idea what it means, by the way. It's net zero. What does that mean? Nobody knows. Ask her what it means. Net zero policy. What does that mean? I have no idea.” https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1823835132811153570
Trump: “Net zero. They have no idea what it means, by the way. It's net zero. What does that mean? Nobody knows. Ask her what it means. Net zero policy. What does that mean? I have no idea.” https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1823835132811153570
Trump: “Net zero. They have no idea what it means, by the way. It's net zero. What does that mean? Nobody knows. Ask her what it means. Net zero policy. What does that mean? I have no idea.” https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1823835132811153570
In all fairness, it is possible Trump is saying he does not know precisely what changes or policies are implied by the term.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
Sounds slightly ridiculous. but Ukrainian helicopter pilots performed near-miracles in resupplying Mariupol in the early days of the war.
That hasn't happened.
I could believe that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are operating in the area, and there's been a case of Russian helicopters firing at Russian units in some of the confusion, but it's too far behind the current front line to be dropping people in.
It reminds me of the computer game video of the four Russian helicopters taken down by MANPADS early in the war.
The Mariupol helicopter flights were to a large extent over the sea, of course.
You might be right. But it's not *that* far away, and I think that, in many places, there are no hard 'lines' of either defence of offence at the moment. The grey zone is massive in may areas, and it seems the Russian troops being sent in to defend are not well-equipped.
Lgov is also a juicy target if you want to disrupt Russian logisitics, with a road, rail junctions and large railway depot.
“She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed. And if it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House... I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
“She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed. And if it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House... I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
“She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed. And if it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House... I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime.”
“She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed. And if it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House... I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime.”
If it is Jenrick and if he keeps talking those points, Starmer will be delighted. The video is clearly targeted at a party in complete denial.
Jenrick berates Labour for not being a clone of the Conservatives and lists several of the previous government's policy failures that Labour has opted not to continue.. Including Rwanda, Levelling up, not balancing the books, not building housing.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
They appear to be unable to find any real army left to defend their own country, as everyone is in Donetsk.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
Here is a Sky News article describing the event. It describes it as "breaking news" and wishes to bring it to our intention. I now feel better informed about the world and it was a productive use of my limited time on this planet. Good old Sky News.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground, but rather Left on economy and taxation, hard on crime, disorder and immigration, liberal on social issues and environment.
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
They appear to be unable to find any real army left to defend their own country, as everyone is in Donetsk.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
On the railways: one western pro-Ukraine commentator, and annoyingly I cannot remember which one, has been predicting Russian railway logistics would eventually fail. The reason? Bearings. He claimed that the Russians had no way of making the bearings presumably roller bearings...) needed for locos and heavy wagons, and the supply was cut off. The locos also require complex spares, which may directly, or indirectly (via the machine tools needed to fabricate them) well be also required for military vehicles.
Remember, Russia's economy is the size of Italy or Canada's. Even accounting for PPP, that's not superpower levels.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
I think she looks 53. But our more prosperous citizens have more time, more money, and hence more access to better diet, cosmetics, dental care, hair care, and even injections/cosmetic surgery.
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
They appear to be unable to find any real army left to defend their own country, as everyone is in Donetsk.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
It's quite a long and circuitous route from the Donbas to Kursk by rail, so difficult to speedily redeploy, and the Russians seem short of units capable of mobile war as opposed to Melchett like artillery and infantry attacks.
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
They appear to be unable to find any real army left to defend their own country, as everyone is in Donetsk.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
It's quite a long and circuitous route from the Donbas to Kursk by rail, so difficult to speedily redeploy, and the Russians seem short of units capable of mobile war as opposed to Melchett like artillery and infantry attacks.
But the Russians needs those troops in the Donbass.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
Um no Rioting has an explicit set of extreme sentences because they are designed to get people to stop and think. The thing is they aren't being used at the moment because without the riot act being read out the laws don't apply.
As for the woman now in prison - we finally have an example to demonstrate that something that might be said in private / down the pub really isn't suitable on social media.
Social media is neither a private place nor a verbal debating point, it's a public space and what you write is permanent (for levels of permanent). Hence it's the equivalent of libel rather than slander - something far more serious.
Now 15 months is incredibly harsh and jailing the person is going to result in massive extra social care costs (so on 1 level is massively counterproductive) but sentencing guidelines are incredibly restrictive - I think the biggest takeaway from here is that this particular part hasn't been used that often...
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground.
OK but it is 'politics' and not 'policy'. The government need to think more than 5 minutes in to the future. My comments are not actually criticising the politics of the situation, it is about the vulnerabilities of the state that are being revealed by the current situation.
If you take something like criminal justice policy, which we discussed a few days ago, at a superficial level a popular solution is to 'bang the crims up'. The population want 'long sentences', ie a decade in prison for a running over a dog or whatever, to 'get justice done'. But running a government along these lines would mean adopting a state policy of punishment rather than rehabilitation, incarcerating millions of people, at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds per year, either through incarceration, lost economic activity, health issues, consequential issues arising from family breakdowns etc.
To just praise the government for 'knowing the common ground' is fair, I think Starmer is good at this. But it is a small part of the bigger picture.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground, but rather Left on economy and taxation, hard on crime, disorder and immigration, liberal on social issues and environment.
Also Labour hasn't implemented a single law yet especially when it comes to sentencing guidelines - so everything would be the same even if Rishi was still in Number 10.
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
They appear to be unable to find any real army left to defend their own country, as everyone is in Donetsk.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
One thing Russia can do once its own population is out of the way is flatten the place and every Ukrainian in it.
As for President Xi, see my recent post about Chinese spies inside Russian computers. As you said, it is hard not to laugh.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground.
OK but it is 'politics' and not 'policy'. The government need to think more than 5 minutes in to the future. My comments are not actually criticising the politics of the situation, it is about the vulnerabilities of the state that are being revealed by the current situation.
If you take something like criminal justice policy, which we discussed a few days ago, at a superficial level a popular solution is to 'bang the crims up'. The population want 'long sentences', ie a decade in prison for a running over a dog or whatever, to 'get justice done'. But running a government along these lines would mean adopting a state policy of punishment rather than rehabilitation, incarcerating millions of people, at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds per year, either through incarceration, lost economic activity, health issues, consequential issues arising from family breakdowns etc.
To just praise the government for 'knowing the common ground' is fair, I think Starmer is good at this. But it is a small part of the bigger picture.
The public certainly want high sentences for vandalism, criminal damage and violent crime. There's absolutely no evidence that they want people doing a long stretch for ill-advised Twitter outbursts, however nasty. BMG tells us that Labour's polling has remained static, so we must assume a no score draw on the riot response. Reform are the only beneficiaries so far.
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
They appear to be unable to find any real army left to defend their own country, as everyone is in Donetsk.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
One thing Russia can do once its own population is out of the way is flatten the place and every Ukrainian in it.
As for President Xi, see my recent post about Chinese spies inside Russian computers. As you said, it is hard not to laugh.
Though how are the Russians to flatten it? Their artillery and drone units are in the Donbas, and pretty certain that the Ukranian units have taken their airdfence units with them.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground, but rather Left on economy and taxation, hard on crime, disorder and immigration, liberal on social issues and environment.
Also Labour hasn't implemented a single law yet especially when it comes to sentencing guidelines - so everything would be the same even if Rishi was still in Number 10.
My point is about the problems with the state, they apply to the previous administration as much as they do to the current one. Looking at the sentencing guidelines for most of these crimes, they are very broad and wide ranging, probably intentionally. They allow a lot of weight to be put on the context in which the actions occurred which can be a major aggravating factor.
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
They appear to be unable to find any real army left to defend their own country, as everyone is in Donetsk.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
One thing Russia can do once its own population is out of the way is flatten the place and every Ukrainian in it.
As for President Xi, see my recent post about Chinese spies inside Russian computers. As you said, it is hard not to laugh.
Though how are the Russians to flatten it? Their artillery and drone units are in the Donbas, and pretty certain that the Ukranian units have taken their airdfence units with them.
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
They appear to be unable to find any real army left to defend their own country, as everyone is in Donetsk.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
On the railways: one western pro-Ukraine commentator, and annoyingly I cannot remember which one, has been predicting Russian railway logistics would eventually fail. The reason? Bearings. He claimed that the Russians had no way of making the bearings presumably roller bearings...) needed for locos and heavy wagons, and the supply was cut off. The locos also require complex spares, which may directly, or indirectly (via the machine tools needed to fabricate them) well be also required for military vehicles.
Remember, Russia's economy is the size of Italy or Canada's. Even accounting for PPP, that's not superpower levels.
Sanctions appear to be working then, if they’re running out of railway spares.
They also have a shortage of spares in the O&G industry, making it very difficult to repair sites taken out by Ukraine in recent months. Western companies in the sandpit are very aware of kit that Russia (as with Iran) is trying to get their hands on. If they’re getting it at all, it will be through a very circuitous route, and for way more than the list price.
One of the most amusing tidbits to come out early in the war, was that Russia’s entire supply of small rocket motors for use in air-to-ground and air-to-air missiles was made in Ukraine. Having failed to seize the factory near Kiev, they won’t be getting any more of those rockets any time soon.
Their lack of industrial machinery was also clear early in the war, with the famous new Russian tractor, that was actually no more than a final assembly line for a Czech tractor, every part coming from the Czech Republic to be screwed together in Russia. Well guess what, they’re not making those any more either.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground.
OK but it is 'politics' and not 'policy'. The government need to think more than 5 minutes in to the future. My comments are not actually criticising the politics of the situation, it is about the vulnerabilities of the state that are being revealed by the current situation.
If you take something like criminal justice policy, which we discussed a few days ago, at a superficial level a popular solution is to 'bang the crims up'. The population want 'long sentences', ie a decade in prison for a running over a dog or whatever, to 'get justice done'. But running a government along these lines would mean adopting a state policy of punishment rather than rehabilitation, incarcerating millions of people, at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds per year, either through incarceration, lost economic activity, health issues, consequential issues arising from family breakdowns etc.
To just praise the government for 'knowing the common ground' is fair, I think Starmer is good at this. But it is a small part of the bigger picture.
The public certainly want high sentences for vandalism, criminal damage and violent crime. There's absolutely no evidence that they want people doing a long stretch for ill-advised Twitter outbursts, however nasty. BMG tells us that Labour's polling has remained static, so we must assume a no score draw on the riot response. Reform are the only beneficiaries so far.
Remember that the hashtag for the riots was Farage's Riots.
So those 3% extra reform voters are confirming how racist a significant part of the population is..
The human rights lawyer Clive Stafford Smith has represented Maharaj pro bono since 1993 when he was on death row – and now he is focused on getting his body back.
@TSE Note: someone said something approving about a lawyer.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground.
OK but it is 'politics' and not 'policy'. The government need to think more than 5 minutes in to the future. My comments are not actually criticising the politics of the situation, it is about the vulnerabilities of the state that are being revealed by the current situation.
If you take something like criminal justice policy, which we discussed a few days ago, at a superficial level a popular solution is to 'bang the crims up'. The population want 'long sentences', ie a decade in prison for a running over a dog or whatever, to 'get justice done'. But running a government along these lines would mean adopting a state policy of punishment rather than rehabilitation, incarcerating millions of people, at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds per year, either through incarceration, lost economic activity, health issues, consequential issues arising from family breakdowns etc.
To just praise the government for 'knowing the common ground' is fair, I think Starmer is good at this. But it is a small part of the bigger picture.
The public certainly want high sentences for vandalism, criminal damage and violent crime. There's absolutely no evidence that they want people doing a long stretch for ill-advised Twitter outbursts, however nasty. BMG tells us that Labour's polling has remained static, so we must assume a no score draw on the riot response. Reform are the only beneficiaries so far.
Remember that the hashtag for the riots was Farage's Riots.
So those 3% extra reform voters are confirming how racist a significant part of the population is..
Garbage. We live in one of the least racist countrries in the world.
Interesting angle from BBC news today re the Manchester airport police fight.
They are announcing that a file has gone to the CPS and then state that video footage showed a police officer dealing violently with a man on the ground. No mention of how that situation came about.
What they should be saying is “video footage seen after showed a group of men attacking police violently leading to one of the assailants being physical dealt with by a police office afterwards” or similar.
By focussing on the bad police angle but ignoring the original perpetrators it is creating perfect fuel for the wingnuts who were stiring up the trouble last week.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground.
OK but it is 'politics' and not 'policy'. The government need to think more than 5 minutes in to the future. My comments are not actually criticising the politics of the situation, it is about the vulnerabilities of the state that are being revealed by the current situation.
If you take something like criminal justice policy, which we discussed a few days ago, at a superficial level a popular solution is to 'bang the crims up'. The population want 'long sentences', ie a decade in prison for a running over a dog or whatever, to 'get justice done'. But running a government along these lines would mean adopting a state policy of punishment rather than rehabilitation, incarcerating millions of people, at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds per year, either through incarceration, lost economic activity, health issues, consequential issues arising from family breakdowns etc.
To just praise the government for 'knowing the common ground' is fair, I think Starmer is good at this. But it is a small part of the bigger picture.
The public certainly want high sentences for vandalism, criminal damage and violent crime. There's absolutely no evidence that they want people doing a long stretch for ill-advised Twitter outbursts, however nasty. BMG tells us that Labour's polling has remained static, so we must assume a no score draw on the riot response. Reform are the only beneficiaries so far.
It's a useful and salutary lesson for people that inciting violence in Social Media rants is not a free hit.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground.
OK but it is 'politics' and not 'policy'. The government need to think more than 5 minutes in to the future. My comments are not actually criticising the politics of the situation, it is about the vulnerabilities of the state that are being revealed by the current situation.
If you take something like criminal justice policy, which we discussed a few days ago, at a superficial level a popular solution is to 'bang the crims up'. The population want 'long sentences', ie a decade in prison for a running over a dog or whatever, to 'get justice done'. But running a government along these lines would mean adopting a state policy of punishment rather than rehabilitation, incarcerating millions of people, at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds per year, either through incarceration, lost economic activity, health issues, consequential issues arising from family breakdowns etc.
To just praise the government for 'knowing the common ground' is fair, I think Starmer is good at this. But it is a small part of the bigger picture.
The public certainly want high sentences for vandalism, criminal damage and violent crime. There's absolutely no evidence that they want people doing a long stretch for ill-advised Twitter outbursts, however nasty. BMG tells us that Labour's polling has remained static, so we must assume a no score draw on the riot response. Reform are the only beneficiaries so far.
Remember that the hashtag for the riots was Farage's Riots.
So those 3% extra reform voters are confirming how racist a significant part of the population is..
Garbage. We live in one of the least racist countrries in the world.
We clearly do still have significant numbers of violent racists, even in sleepy commuter villages in the NW.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground.
OK but it is 'politics' and not 'policy'. The government need to think more than 5 minutes in to the future. My comments are not actually criticising the politics of the situation, it is about the vulnerabilities of the state that are being revealed by the current situation.
If you take something like criminal justice policy, which we discussed a few days ago, at a superficial level a popular solution is to 'bang the crims up'. The population want 'long sentences', ie a decade in prison for a running over a dog or whatever, to 'get justice done'. But running a government along these lines would mean adopting a state policy of punishment rather than rehabilitation, incarcerating millions of people, at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds per year, either through incarceration, lost economic activity, health issues, consequential issues arising from family breakdowns etc.
To just praise the government for 'knowing the common ground' is fair, I think Starmer is good at this. But it is a small part of the bigger picture.
The public certainly want high sentences for vandalism, criminal damage and violent crime. There's absolutely no evidence that they want people doing a long stretch for ill-advised Twitter outbursts, however nasty. BMG tells us that Labour's polling has remained static, so we must assume a no score draw on the riot response. Reform are the only beneficiaries so far.
It's a useful and salutary lesson for people that inciting violence in Social Media rants is not a free hit.
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
They appear to be unable to find any real army left to defend their own country, as everyone is in Donetsk.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
One thing Russia can do once its own population is out of the way is flatten the place and every Ukrainian in it.
As for President Xi, see my recent post about Chinese spies inside Russian computers. As you said, it is hard not to laugh.
Though how are the Russians to flatten it? Their artillery and drone units are in the Donbas, and pretty certain that the Ukranian units have taken their airdfence units with them.
They could nuke their own territory.
That’s about all they have left, either a small nuke or a massive conventional ICBM to bomb their own country to Hell and back, and which stands a decent chance of failure given the age and condition of their big weapons, and Western Patriot air defences just across the border.
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
They appear to be unable to find any real army left to defend their own country, as everyone is in Donetsk.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
One thing Russia can do once its own population is out of the way is flatten the place and every Ukrainian in it.
As for President Xi, see my recent post about Chinese spies inside Russian computers. As you said, it is hard not to laugh.
Though how are the Russians to flatten it? Their artillery and drone units are in the Donbas, and pretty certain that the Ukranian units have taken their airdfence units with them.
They could nuke their own territory.
Nuking anywhere, even their own territory, is a red line that would cause a significant response. Not just from the west, but also some of Russia's supposed 'allies'.
But tactical nukes are really not that useful. A hideous terror weapon, rather than one that would automagically allow the Russian military to win.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground.
OK but it is 'politics' and not 'policy'. The government need to think more than 5 minutes in to the future. My comments are not actually criticising the politics of the situation, it is about the vulnerabilities of the state that are being revealed by the current situation.
If you take something like criminal justice policy, which we discussed a few days ago, at a superficial level a popular solution is to 'bang the crims up'. The population want 'long sentences', ie a decade in prison for a running over a dog or whatever, to 'get justice done'. But running a government along these lines would mean adopting a state policy of punishment rather than rehabilitation, incarcerating millions of people, at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds per year, either through incarceration, lost economic activity, health issues, consequential issues arising from family breakdowns etc.
To just praise the government for 'knowing the common ground' is fair, I think Starmer is good at this. But it is a small part of the bigger picture.
The public certainly want high sentences for vandalism, criminal damage and violent crime. There's absolutely no evidence that they want people doing a long stretch for ill-advised Twitter outbursts, however nasty. BMG tells us that Labour's polling has remained static, so we must assume a no score draw on the riot response. Reform are the only beneficiaries so far.
Remember that the hashtag for the riots was Farage's Riots.
So those 3% extra reform voters are confirming how racist a significant part of the population is..
Garbage. We live in one of the least racist countrries in the world.
We clearly do still have significant numbers of violent racists, even in sleepy commuter villages in the NW.
No, we have al large underclass that has been serially neglected for years by all parties and which will continue to get ignored.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
Same thing happened after previous riots - context based sentencing.
All the sentences handed out are within the sentencing guidelines. What has changed is using the full offences - *charging* what people have actually done, rather than with a lesser offence.
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
They appear to be unable to find any real army left to defend their own country, as everyone is in Donetsk.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
On the railways: one western pro-Ukraine commentator, and annoyingly I cannot remember which one, has been predicting Russian railway logistics would eventually fail. The reason? Bearings. He claimed that the Russians had no way of making the bearings presumably roller bearings...) needed for locos and heavy wagons, and the supply was cut off. The locos also require complex spares, which may directly, or indirectly (via the machine tools needed to fabricate them) well be also required for military vehicles.
Remember, Russia's economy is the size of Italy or Canada's. Even accounting for PPP, that's not superpower levels.
Sanctions appear to be working then, if they’re running out of railway spares.
They also have a shortage of spares in the O&G industry, making it very difficult to repair sites taken out by Ukraine in recent months. Western companies in the sandpit are very aware of kit that Russia (as with Iran) is trying to get their hands on. If they’re getting it at all, it will be through a very circuitous route, and for way more than the list price.
One of the most amusing tidbits to come out early in the war, was that Russia’s entire supply of small rocket motors for use in air-to-ground and air-to-air missiles was made in Ukraine. Having failed to seize the factory near Kiev, they won’t be getting any more of those rockets any time soon.
Their lack of industrial machinery was also clear early in the war, with the famous new Russian tractor, that was actually no more than a final assembly line for a Czech tractor, every part coming from the Czech Republic to be screwed together in Russia. Well guess what, they’re not making those any more either.
That tractor factory was the story of Putin’s system
1) announce autarky, Russia! Stonk! 2) fanfare for the achievement 3) achievement turned out to be bullshit 4) wacking opposition politicians and reporters over the head, to stop them finding out who got to steal the money.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground.
OK but it is 'politics' and not 'policy'. The government need to think more than 5 minutes in to the future. My comments are not actually criticising the politics of the situation, it is about the vulnerabilities of the state that are being revealed by the current situation.
If you take something like criminal justice policy, which we discussed a few days ago, at a superficial level a popular solution is to 'bang the crims up'. The population want 'long sentences', ie a decade in prison for a running over a dog or whatever, to 'get justice done'. But running a government along these lines would mean adopting a state policy of punishment rather than rehabilitation, incarcerating millions of people, at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds per year, either through incarceration, lost economic activity, health issues, consequential issues arising from family breakdowns etc.
To just praise the government for 'knowing the common ground' is fair, I think Starmer is good at this. But it is a small part of the bigger picture.
The public certainly want high sentences for vandalism, criminal damage and violent crime. There's absolutely no evidence that they want people doing a long stretch for ill-advised Twitter outbursts, however nasty. BMG tells us that Labour's polling has remained static, so we must assume a no score draw on the riot response. Reform are the only beneficiaries so far.
Remember that the hashtag for the riots was Farage's Riots.
So those 3% extra reform voters are confirming how racist a significant part of the population is..
Garbage. We live in one of the least racist countrries in the world.
We clearly do still have significant numbers of violent racists, even in sleepy commuter villages in the NW.
No, we have al large underclass that has been serially neglected for years by all parties and which will continue to get ignored.
I don’t see evidence that the rioters are all members of a underclass. What do we know about the people who have been charged?
Are Labour setting up a 1970s style inflationary spiral for 2026?
This seems a strange take imo. Where's this inflationary spiral?
The pay award is:
The new offer is for a 5% backdated pay rise for 2022/23, a 4.75% rise for 23/24, and 4.5% increase for 24/25.
CPI inflation April 2022 to April 2024 was 11.5% approx.
They may break even with respect to CPI (not RPI) inflation, or may not.
I'd say the only real issue here is that ASLEF perhaps have too much of a veto over working practices. But given that our rail industry is Balkanised, that may not be a bad thing.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground.
OK but it is 'politics' and not 'policy'. The government need to think more than 5 minutes in to the future. My comments are not actually criticising the politics of the situation, it is about the vulnerabilities of the state that are being revealed by the current situation.
If you take something like criminal justice policy, which we discussed a few days ago, at a superficial level a popular solution is to 'bang the crims up'. The population want 'long sentences', ie a decade in prison for a running over a dog or whatever, to 'get justice done'. But running a government along these lines would mean adopting a state policy of punishment rather than rehabilitation, incarcerating millions of people, at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds per year, either through incarceration, lost economic activity, health issues, consequential issues arising from family breakdowns etc.
To just praise the government for 'knowing the common ground' is fair, I think Starmer is good at this. But it is a small part of the bigger picture.
The public certainly want high sentences for vandalism, criminal damage and violent crime. There's absolutely no evidence that they want people doing a long stretch for ill-advised Twitter outbursts, however nasty. BMG tells us that Labour's polling has remained static, so we must assume a no score draw on the riot response. Reform are the only beneficiaries so far.
Remember that the hashtag for the riots was Farage's Riots.
So those 3% extra reform voters are confirming how racist a significant part of the population is..
How wide do you think the reach of twitter is ?
I really doubt that hashtag had any impact at all.
Hunt and Sunak both rather hard done by in terms of the forecasts. The OBR forecast was 0.8% for the entire year as recently as May of this year. Seriously wrong, adversely affecting borrowing and tax take tying the government's hands on both tax cuts and spending.
And Reeves wants to give them even more influence.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
I would agree with that. But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc. I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment. Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues. It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation. 'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY! The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'. It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
In the context of national racist riots against Muslims and Asylum seekers (neither of which had anything to do with the Southport murders) inciting on Social Media is not a crime to be ignored.
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground.
OK but it is 'politics' and not 'policy'. The government need to think more than 5 minutes in to the future. My comments are not actually criticising the politics of the situation, it is about the vulnerabilities of the state that are being revealed by the current situation.
If you take something like criminal justice policy, which we discussed a few days ago, at a superficial level a popular solution is to 'bang the crims up'. The population want 'long sentences', ie a decade in prison for a running over a dog or whatever, to 'get justice done'. But running a government along these lines would mean adopting a state policy of punishment rather than rehabilitation, incarcerating millions of people, at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds per year, either through incarceration, lost economic activity, health issues, consequential issues arising from family breakdowns etc.
To just praise the government for 'knowing the common ground' is fair, I think Starmer is good at this. But it is a small part of the bigger picture.
The public certainly want high sentences for vandalism, criminal damage and violent crime. There's absolutely no evidence that they want people doing a long stretch for ill-advised Twitter outbursts, however nasty. BMG tells us that Labour's polling has remained static, so we must assume a no score draw on the riot response. Reform are the only beneficiaries so far.
Remember that the hashtag for the riots was Farage's Riots.
So those 3% extra reform voters are confirming how racist a significant part of the population is..
Garbage. We live in one of the least racist countrries in the world.
We clearly do still have significant numbers of violent racists, even in sleepy commuter villages in the NW.
No, we have al large underclass that has been serially neglected for years by all parties and which will continue to get ignored.
I don’t see evidence that the rioters are all members of a underclass. What do we know about the people who have been charged?
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast. https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
It's an indication of how thin the Russians stretched themselves in order to grind out their 'victories' in the east of Ukraine. Various pro-Russian bloggers have been insinuating for over a year that there is a massive Russian 'fist' just across the border, ready to annihilate Ukraine. And whilst unlikely, this could not be discounted.
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing. https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
They appear to be unable to find any real army left to defend their own country, as everyone is in Donetsk.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
Why on earth would China threaten Russia? They have resolved their border disputes, and China's priorities are Taiwan, the South China Sea and border disputes with India (they also have disputes with Japan etc). China needs friendly relations with Russia.
This 53 year old woman, who was jailed today, looks about 25 years older than she is. Makes you wonder what life is like in those parts of the country.
Comments
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/14/judge-jails-keyboard-warrior-over-blow-up-mosque-post/
I tend to believe stuff like the big mac index. What was the cost of a big mac in 2021 vs the cost now?
See also - the pint in your local. Up from about a fiver in 2021 for me to seven fifty now (London prices, yes, but tracks with the rise in the price of a big mac, or the rise in rents the FT is tracking, linked to downthread).
We tax broadly as much as other western countries. We spend broadly the same on government spending.
And yet our services are much worse.
Where does the money go?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHNRl-HbsXM
As per the FT's report on 'cheapflation' there's strong evidence the poorest have been hit the worst over the last few years by the price of basics going up, but when your main costs are determined by, say, renting the roof over your head, London is always going to be a bit more mental than quiet bits of the North. Ditto the price of a pint.
You can’t do that with a shared facility.
Personally, I'd rather permit this sort of unpleasant speech than lose free speech, but even if you say that these sorts of sentiments are beyond the pale, and should be illegal, for a first time offender of previous good character, surely this is the sort of thing where community service would actually be a good answer.
She's likely to take it seriously, and not repeat offend. I can't see any useful purpose to be gained by imprisonment in this case - it's going to cost us a fortune, ruin her life, and at the end of it she'll probably be more convinced/radicalised that Tommy Robinson et-al are right about the system being rigged against "normal" people.
Kilgraston School in Perthshire said on Tuesday that it had closed with immediate effect.
Parents, staff and former pupils were informed of the decision to close on Tuesday, with current students to be offered places at nearby private schools Glenalmond College and Craigclowan School.
It came after a planned sale fell through. The school, which was founded in 1930, said Achieve Education, the education provider, had pulled out of the deal after it “reassessed its commitment to investing in the school”."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/14/catholic-boarding-school-kilgraston-closes-labour-vat/
Just as we've seen in the UK, if your post trial appeals are rejected, it is extraordinarily difficult to get the legal system to overturn even blatant error.
In the US there's an even stronger institutional bias, since federal courts are unwilling to overturn state verdicts, irrespective of the facts of the case.
Now, I am not married and to ensure this was not a prophetic dream I must ensure I never do even if Tiffany Trump asks, and I also probably will never sleep again.
Either way it's the body's way of saying too much politics.
Trump: “Net zero. They have no idea what it means, by the way. It's net zero. What does that mean? Nobody knows. Ask her what it means. Net zero policy. What does that mean? I have no idea.”
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1823835132811153570
https://www.theregister.com/2024/08/15/suspected_chinese_attackers_hacked_russia/
https://maps.app.goo.gl/xKfUkTWHW25z8kXK7
Note that she made the offensive comment after the rioters had attacked the Mosque, during the clean up, by which time it was clear that there was no Muslim involved in the Southport murders.
Probably a suspended sentence and ban from social media and some community service would have been sufficient even for such vile and dangerous Islamophobia.
Lgov is also a juicy target if you want to disrupt Russian logisitics, with a road, rail junctions and large railway depot.
“She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed. And if it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House... I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime.”
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1823929339143946313?t=YEbzix5AQ5yf1ZtJsEu6xQ&s=19
Meanwhile, Ukraine says they have now captured 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast, and are keeping them as POWs. They appear to be mostly untrained conscripts who didn’t particularly fancy a fight with the Ukranians.
Still more progress is being made in the invasion, and the Russians have been totally unable to mount a counter-offensive after more than a week. They’re even droning their own towns now, and the Ukranians shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter jet over the region yesterday.
Oh, and to add to their fun, one Russian attack helicopter blew up one of their own military convoys.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823944548403253453
Now the Russians have announced mandatory civillian evacuation of Glushkovsky District, adjacent and to the North of the existing Ukranian invasion. That’s 200,000 people who have been evacuated in total from Kursk Oblast.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823831706690027912
But I think that possibility, although remote, can be thoroughly put to bed. Russia is short of men and equipment, and is scrabbling around to try to beat this incursion. They may succeed; but there's little sign of it at the moment.
Oh. and there also rumours that parts of the Russian railway system are in a state of collapse. Given how the Russians rely on railways, this could be a big thing.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1823861368287871400
Jenrick berates Labour for not being a clone of the Conservatives and lists several of the previous government's policy failures that Labour has opted not to continue.. Including Rwanda, Levelling up, not balancing the books, not building housing.
But instances like this reveal how terrified the British state is of the current situation. An interesting comparison is to the sentences imposed in other hostile countries for similar kinds of disorder, of the kind sometimes condemned by the 'liberal elite' as evidence of human rights violations, etc.
I would comment, that the state are afraid of the rioters, but also now terrified of the political allegations of two tier policing, leading to similar jail sentences being handed out to 'counter protestors', dismissing the reality that those who counter protest usually feel threatened which should could be regarded as mitigation such that some level of additional forgiveness is justified for things done in the heat of the moment.
Essentially, the state is using imprisonment as a method of population control - it should really be the option of last resort, but instead it is being used as the option of first resort, and in a context where it does not have the infrastructure (ie prisons) to manage/control/resolve the underlying issues.
It shows various things but mainly clumsiness/arrogance and a lack of foresight, policy driven by desperation.
'People rioting? SEND THEM ALL TO PRISON NOW. THROW AWAY THE KEY!
The situation is so desperate that it isn't enough for a 'short sharp shock', which prison would undoubtedly be for many of these people, it has to be 'years', just so they can 'send a clear message'.
It essentially reveals that all is not well, things are getting very strange.
They’re said to be withdrawing men and materiel from the region of fighting, and from the Belarusians, to try and counter the Ukranian incursion, but their evacuation of yet more civilians suggests they don’t think they’ll be able to get any actual soldiers and equipment there for some time yet. Not to mention what exactly are they going to do with 200,000 evacuees, that’s an awful lot of people to move out.
On the railroad issue, their engineers appear to also be stretched to the limit making repairs in the war zone, and there’s a group of people, either Ukranian special forces or dissident Russians, who know how to take out strategic junctions and cause havoc to the military trains the Russians rely on for the majority of their logistics.
It must also be interesting to monitor what other countries bordering Russia must be thinking, especially China. If they can’t keep the border with Ukraine safe, what do their other borders look like. It would be hillarious if Xi starts sending forces towards the border, even if they don’t actually cross, just to see what the Russian reaction looks like!
This week is the happiest I’ve been for a long time about the war. It’s clear that we are starting to see the beginning of the end of the Russian army as a fighting force, they have very little left to give.
Here is a Sky News article describing the event. It describes it as "breaking news" and wishes to bring it to our intention. I now feel better informed about the world and it was a productive use of my limited time on this planet. Good old Sky News.
😃😃😃😃😃😃😃😃
Polling shows that the general public generally supported even harsher policing and courts.
It's not my politics, and I did not vote for Starmers Labour, but Starmer is pretty good at finding the "common ground" of the British public. Note that this isn't necessarily the centre ground, but rather Left on economy and taxation, hard on crime, disorder and immigration, liberal on social issues and environment.
https://x.com/georgeeaton/status/1823764523406316011?t=46vXzkokQg657ZV3J0OVKQ&s=19
Remember, Russia's economy is the size of Italy or Canada's. Even accounting for PPP, that's not superpower levels.
Plus nobody looks good in perp shots ☹️
As for the woman now in prison - we finally have an example to demonstrate that something that might be said in private / down the pub really isn't suitable on social media.
Social media is neither a private place nor a verbal debating point, it's a public space and what you write is permanent (for levels of permanent). Hence it's the equivalent of libel rather than slander - something far more serious.
Now 15 months is incredibly harsh and jailing the person is going to result in massive extra social care costs (so on 1 level is massively counterproductive) but sentencing guidelines are incredibly restrictive - I think the biggest takeaway from here is that this particular part hasn't been used that often...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly84x8rejjo
Article predicts significant Liberal losses as a result.
If you take something like criminal justice policy, which we discussed a few days ago, at a superficial level a popular solution is to 'bang the crims up'. The population want 'long sentences', ie a decade in prison for a running over a dog or whatever, to 'get justice done'. But running a government along these lines would mean adopting a state policy of punishment rather than rehabilitation, incarcerating millions of people, at a cost of many tens of billions of pounds per year, either through incarceration, lost economic activity, health issues, consequential issues arising from family breakdowns etc.
To just praise the government for 'knowing the common ground' is fair, I think Starmer is good at this. But it is a small part of the bigger picture.
As for President Xi, see my recent post about Chinese spies inside Russian computers. As you said, it is hard not to laugh.
They also have a shortage of spares in the O&G industry, making it very difficult to repair sites taken out by Ukraine in recent months. Western companies in the sandpit are very aware of kit that Russia (as with Iran) is trying to get their hands on. If they’re getting it at all, it will be through a very circuitous route, and for way more than the list price.
One of the most amusing tidbits to come out early in the war, was that Russia’s entire supply of small rocket motors for use in air-to-ground and air-to-air missiles was made in Ukraine. Having failed to seize the factory near Kiev, they won’t be getting any more of those rockets any time soon.
Their lack of industrial machinery was also clear early in the war, with the famous new Russian tractor, that was actually no more than a final assembly line for a Czech tractor, every part coming from the Czech Republic to be screwed together in Russia. Well guess what, they’re not making those any more either.
So those 3% extra reform voters are confirming how racist a significant part of the population is..
So thats 1.3% in first half.
The human rights lawyer Clive Stafford Smith has represented Maharaj pro bono since 1993 when he was on death row – and now he is focused on getting his body back.
@TSE Note: someone said something approving about a lawyer.
They are announcing that a file has gone to the CPS and then state that video footage showed a police officer dealing violently with a man on the ground. No mention of how that situation came about.
What they should be saying is “video footage seen after showed a group of men attacking police violently leading to one of the assailants being physical dealt with by a police office afterwards” or similar.
By focussing on the bad police angle but ignoring the original perpetrators it is creating perfect fuel for the wingnuts who were stiring up the trouble last week.
But tactical nukes are really not that useful. A hideous terror weapon, rather than one that would automagically allow the Russian military to win.
All the sentences handed out are within the sentencing guidelines. What has changed is using the full offences - *charging* what people have actually done, rather than with a lesser offence.
LOL we all know she's going to fk it up.
1) announce autarky, Russia! Stonk!
2) fanfare for the achievement
3) achievement turned out to be bullshit
4) wacking opposition politicians and reporters over the head, to stop them finding out who got to steal the money.
The pay award is:
The new offer is for a 5% backdated pay rise for 2022/23, a 4.75% rise for 23/24, and 4.5% increase for 24/25.
CPI inflation April 2022 to April 2024 was 11.5% approx.
They may break even with respect to CPI (not RPI) inflation, or may not.
I'd say the only real issue here is that ASLEF perhaps have too much of a veto over working practices. But given that our rail industry is Balkanised, that may not be a bad thing.
NEW THREAD
I really doubt that hashtag had any impact at all.
And Reeves wants to give them even more influence.