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Ed Davey’s cunning stunts worked but as for the betting scandal – politicalbetting.com
Ed Davey’s cunning stunts worked but as for the betting scandal – politicalbetting.com
What was the news story the public remembered most about Labour from the election campaign? (asked 8-9 Jul)Top 3Taxes under a Labour govt: 7%Starmer's leadership and debate performance: 6%Labour's campaign message of change: 6%https://t.co/jS5t8MM7D0 pic.twitter.com/NM96hdJ2Jc
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More information and analysis at https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/fight-redefine-2024-race-president
In May, in the five-way horserace including third party candidates, just 82% of the voters who supported Biden in 2020 were committed to voting for him this fall. Harris is getting 91% of those voters. Among independent voters, Harris leads Trump 48% to 40% in the 2-way head-to-head. In May, Trump led Biden among independent voters by three points (41% to 38%).
Trump, however, continues to hold an advantage over Harris on issues like the border and immigration (+14 points), getting inflation and the cost of living under control (+6) and dealing with crime and violence (+4). Undecided voters and third-party voters overwhelmingly say that they are more worried about Harris setting economic policy than they are about Trump setting immigration policy.
I think I've go that right.
If it had been, say, Boris doing exactly the same stuff there would've been an endless barrage of criticism, comments about 'buffoonery' and not taking the election seriously and so on
The base is notable for housing Flugbereitschaft aircraft & as logistics hub.
https://x.com/AlexLuck9/status/1823666235823075743
I’m sure it’s nothing to worry about…
Bild now reporting Geilenkirchen air base also sealed off with similar issue reported. Geilenkirchen houses the NATO AWACS-fleet.
https://x.com/AlexLuck9/status/1823697762258706943
The Gambling Commission, which is supposed to protect punters, decided to protect the bookies in this instance didn't it? I'm assuming the bookies took the opportunity to void the bets?
Sunday Times before last, riffing on the "nothing makes much difference" theme: VP picks make very little difference and in particular don't "deliver" key states or constituencies.
BBC News - Famous Stonehenge stone came from Scotland not Wales
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c207lqdn755o
ahahahaha
I thought the whole 'scandal' was magnified to be honest. Of course it was.
Which has always been a feature in FPTP. It's a similar dynamic to the SNP, who got 48 seats on 3.9 percent of the vote in 2019.
And the challenge for the Conservatives now is that those 72 Nice Britain seats look like a powerful block on the Conservatives getting above 300. (See the effect the SNP had on Labour until it all went Pete McTong for them.)
"Sir Keir Starmer must feel a bit of a tool, given how often he was the son of a toolmaker just 1% of the public remember that from the election campaign."
Nice piece of deliberate misreading. The data is consistent with 100% of those polled remembering that SKS was the son of a toolmaker and 99% of them rightly not thinking it was especially significant or that it was the thing they heard most.
Or can we now reinterpret Stonehenge as a proto Union flag ?
Comprising, as it does, stone from the three nations.
Jokes aside, it's astonishing how influential the area around Orkney was. A real cradle of civilisation. I strongly recommend PBers spend a week up there (preferably by bike), and make sure you visit some of the smaller islands.
Seems ambitious even for a DuraAce.
Does that mean WWIII isn’t imminent after all ?
The base wasn't sealed off, but someone was prevented from entering. The base was 'routinely searched', the water was tested, nothing was found, and the base continued to operate normally.
I can believe the bluestones come from the Preseli Hills, as it has been researched the heck out of. But when it comes to the claims of Mike Pearson that the stones originally formed a circle in Wales... well, scepticism is justified.
If you want to make a name for yourself, come up with a theory about Stonehenge, preferably controversial, and preferably with s SCIENCE!!!! paper to back it up. It's the sort of thing Nature laps up.
I'm not saying it's wrong, and it may be more credible than Pearson's claims, but I am sceptical.
He'll be wearing his Gazza Strip.
Pembrokeshire to Amesbury and no Second Severn Crossing, no Severn Bridge, no bridge over the Severn at Gloucester, Worcester or Shrewsbury. I think not!
They'll be coming up with one about Stonehenge being Scottish next.
The takeaway is that it’s stone from all three nations.
As I said, Stonehenge is a druidic prophesy of the Union.
All that garbage about astronomy is just for the tabloids…
Fwiw, on reflection I think there's a tweak we can make (re Pre-Cog) that should satisfy the various critics (in particular Pagan). Which is, the perp is not punished. They haven't done the crime after all so why should they be? They are detained for an hour or so, tea and a biscuit, then sent on their way.
They'll soon get sick of that happening every time they plan a gruesome murder.
I guess they must have been conscripted.
Kyiv bombards Russian air base 400 miles from the border
Locals report at least 10 explosions in Nizhny Novgorod region in Ukraine’s largest drone strike since war began
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/14/ukraine-russia-war-airbases-counterstrike/
https://youtu.be/XSRHLy3kw-Q?si=zxz-g1L9dutoFcrE&t=55
What does that foretell???
I'm old enough to remember 'Nats' getting pelters for saying Oliver was an ahistorical loony. How wrong we were..
In your world, did you get a knock on your door and your collar felt just before you took your pussy out? You never planned the killing, so will your tech work?
In your face.
Harris 47.8%
Trump 45.0%
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-harris-polls
Now everybody hates him.
"She's bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden, so the entire electoral pool has changed," says @FrankLuntz of VP Harris. "She's got an intensity advantage, and I haven't seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime."..
https://x.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1823680189542346793
https://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/24508027.scottish-restaurants-named-among-worlds-beautiful/
https://www.marriott.com/en-us/hotels/ediwh-w-edinburgh/photos/
Six weeks on and I'm still struggling to believe there are 72 Liberal Democrat MPs. I was an activist in the 80s and 90s and I thought winning 46 in 1997 was a huge achievement.
Let's start with two truths but which seem to need re-stating for some of the more waspish on here. First, the Lib Dem advance was built on a Conservative vote collapse. Yes, the LD vote share advanced by greater or lesser amounts in the seats gained but almost all the victories were predicated on the fall in the Conservative vote share.
I've not studied the complete correlation but I strongly suspect local election success and past LD/Liberal performance would be common factors around all or most of the gains.
Nonetheless, Ed Davey had a brilliant campaign - it wasn't just the positivity and the "fun" (which I see Harris and Walz trying to emulate) but the serious messages (and a brilliant personal PEB from Ed which was the highlight). Yes, it would have been nice to have grown the vote share (no argument) but the other key factor was ruthless targetting concentrating on, I would guess, 80-90 seats to the exclusion of all others.
Behind all this is the other truth - the party I worked for died in the fire of the Coalition and what came out of that was a movement based more on Europe and the EU than domestic matters and that achieved some success but since Ed became leader and especially since 2021, the era of community politics has returned. "Banging on about Europe" as someone else once said got us nowhere, banging on about social care and sewage in rivers is what people want to talk about.
The future? I'm sure the new MPs will develop their local parties, recruit new members and attack the 2025 County elections strongly - there are real prospects of progress in a number of authorities.
The question at Westminster is how to break forward from the 72 seats to the next block of seats - 26 of the 30 LD targets are held by the Conservatives and just four by Labour. Some of them have significant Labour votes to squeeze but that's going to be harder next time.
However, the final truth is the Conservatives usually win majorities first by beating down the Liberal/LD vote - that's what happened in 1951, 1970, 1979 and 2015. We saw in 2012/13 a ramping up of Conservative activity in LD seats which presaged the disaster of 2015. The extent to which the shattered local Conservative organisations can get back in the fight under a Jenrick leadership is going to be huely interesting.
I'll offer an alternative scenario for 2028/29 which many will refute - a dominant Labour Party on course for a second big win and the Conservatives, Reform, the Lib Dems and the Greens all scrapping hard for second place carving up 60-65% of the vote more or less equally between them.
Just had to be the first day I got to Bristol in ten years.
(They’ve been helped by some umpiring that has been rather friendly to them on wides and no-balls.)
Although that might make us Sconers.
‘Not bothered about this stuff, all Mickey Mouse, innit? Second in the Championship, that’s what I want.’
Not overheard:
Any mention of the Hundred.
Maybe given that ball I didn’t see only just missed me, I should pay more attention to the cricket and less to PB
SNP claims it had ‘no choice’ but to copy Reeves and cut winter fuel payments for 900,000 pensioners
Social Justice Secretary confirms the benefit will be means-tested as she blames UK Chancellor for decision
Almost a million Scottish pensioners are to lose out on winter fuel payments from this year after SNP ministers claimed they had “no choice” but to copy the Chancellor’s decision south of the border.
Shirley-Anne Somerville, the SNP Social Justice Secretary, said the payment of between £100 and £300 would now only go to pensioners who receive benefits rather than all retirees.
She placed the blame on the decision by Rachel Reeves to means-test the payment in England and Wales, which she said would lead to a cut of up to £160 million in the Scottish Government’s funding.
Ms Somerville’s complaints were echoed by Kate Forbes, the Deputy First Minister, who accused the new Labour UK Government of ignoring “the disproportionate importance of this payment to households in Scotland” thanks to its colder climate.
But Age Scotland, a charity, said SNP ministers had the power to keep the payment universal, with control over the benefit being devolved to them next month.
Adam Stachura, the charity’s policy director, warned the move would lead to hundreds of thousands of Scottish pensioners “who live in some of the coldest homes in the UK” struggling to pay their energy bills.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/14/pensioners-winter-fuel-payments-scotland-rachel-reeves/
“I won’t stand for it.” You do know you are a mere citizen now. Please contact your local mp
https://x.com/AdamCrafton_/status/1823764408733978666
This is far righters at I think the Tommy Robinson demo, chanting "we want our country back."
Can anyone help me with the symbology / organisations.
I can see the Union Flag, England Flag.
What is the Black top/White bottom flag with the red maltese(?) cross central?
What is the "British Youth" Union Flag. I think the middle slogan is Christ is King, which is the current far right Christian Nationalist shtick.
Thanks. I'm looking into the "I want my country back" slogan which has been all over Lee Anderson's social media channels for weeks.
https://youtu.be/eQhLMSlf_R8?t=38
I cannot believe a 27 year old friendship ended because of that woman.
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-campaign-forced-pay-north-carolina-city-82k-advance-rally-1938769