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The next game changer? – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,731

    ...

    Nigelb said:

    ...

    Nigelb said:
    I don't suppose that will affect anyone posting on here, oh wait...
    It's a serious point.
    A pretty cheap drug which prevents dementia onset should be available. If it's not prescribed as a it's likely to cost the NHS, too.
    Fair enough, I've seen early onset dementia at 35 after a lady we knew spent 20 years consuming six litres of White Lightening each day.

    I couldn't resist a clumsy quip based on certain company.
    Wenickes encephalopathy caused by thiamine deficiency, often compounded by other vitamin deficiencies. It's a bit different to most dementia. Alcohol use depletes thiamine, so is often used as a supplement when drying out alcoholics.

    There was quite an epidemic of it in Australia when I worked there and a proposal to prevent it by adding it as a supplement to beer.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,676
    DM_Andy said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OK this is fucking ridiculous


    🇬🇧MAN JAILED IN UK FOR COMMENTING ON FACEBOOK POST ABOUT RIOTS

    31-year-old Billy Thompson was sent to prison for 12 weeks after he replied "Filthy ba**ards" on a post about the Police issuing a dispersal order to try and prevent protests from becoming violent.

    It also included emojis of an ethnic minority person and a gun.

    His lawyer said Billy had made the comment as part of an online Facebook conversation with a family member.

    The judge found him guilty of encouraging violence and imposed the sentence to "discourage the kind of violent behavior that such messages encouraged."

    Judge Temperley:

    "It may be right that the starting point [sentence] is a community order for this offense, but I am afraid this has to be viewed within the context of the current civil unrest up and down the country."

    Source: NW Evening Mail

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1821796789327982937

    emojis of an ethnic minority person and a gun

    Inciting or threatening violence is a crime in every country. That's not ridiculous.

    Free speech doesn't give you a right to threaten others with guns.
    He typed an EMOJI on a family Facebook chat

    Do you want the state to go through all of your messages, WhatsApps, emails, Youtube comments, letters and posts, and find a dubious emoji or two, which they interpret in the worst possible light, and then slam you in jail?
    Was it actually on the family chat? The sentence is disgraceful either way, but did a family member dob him in or something?
    According to the BBC report it wasn't on private chat.

    Carlisle Magistrates’ Court heard that Billy Thompson, 31, posted online in response to Cumbria Police announcing a dispersal order over potential planned disorder on Wednesday.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyn24p3e5ro

    By the way, why is the sentence disgraceful?

    Because someone got a suspended sentence for rape the other day.
    Because they were 12.
    I have no wish to look it up to verify that fact.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517

    DM_Andy said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OK this is fucking ridiculous


    🇬🇧MAN JAILED IN UK FOR COMMENTING ON FACEBOOK POST ABOUT RIOTS

    31-year-old Billy Thompson was sent to prison for 12 weeks after he replied "Filthy ba**ards" on a post about the Police issuing a dispersal order to try and prevent protests from becoming violent.

    It also included emojis of an ethnic minority person and a gun.

    His lawyer said Billy had made the comment as part of an online Facebook conversation with a family member.

    The judge found him guilty of encouraging violence and imposed the sentence to "discourage the kind of violent behavior that such messages encouraged."

    Judge Temperley:

    "It may be right that the starting point [sentence] is a community order for this offense, but I am afraid this has to be viewed within the context of the current civil unrest up and down the country."

    Source: NW Evening Mail

    https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1821796789327982937

    emojis of an ethnic minority person and a gun

    Inciting or threatening violence is a crime in every country. That's not ridiculous.

    Free speech doesn't give you a right to threaten others with guns.
    He typed an EMOJI on a family Facebook chat

    Do you want the state to go through all of your messages, WhatsApps, emails, Youtube comments, letters and posts, and find a dubious emoji or two, which they interpret in the worst possible light, and then slam you in jail?
    Was it actually on the family chat? The sentence is disgraceful either way, but did a family member dob him in or something?
    According to the BBC report it wasn't on private chat.

    Carlisle Magistrates’ Court heard that Billy Thompson, 31, posted online in response to Cumbria Police announcing a dispersal order over potential planned disorder on Wednesday.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyn24p3e5ro

    By the way, why is the sentence disgraceful?

    Because someone got a suspended sentence for rape the other day.
    Because they were 12.
    I have no wish to look it up to verify that fact.
    They didn't get a suspended sentence for rape.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517

    NEW THREAD

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,446
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    I’m starting to feel a,little sorry for this idiot

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1821617092598047229?s=61

    Another flabbergasting clip. How he can keep rolling out these ludicrous falsehoods and remain a viable contender for US president is a mystery.

    But can he?

    I'm hoping that the dam breaks, emperor's new clothes like, and it all comes tumbling down by Nov 5th. An implosion, I mean, a collapse in popularity and the polls. Support falling right down to the cult faithful and GOP partisans. Low forties.

    I'm not predicting this but I do think it's possible. Hence why I have big Harris win in my Overton window.
    People have been waiting for the absurd Trump bubble to break for a long, long time.

    The line about going broke waiting for market rationality comes to mind.
    Indeed. But you get tipping points sometimes. He's older, crasser, crazier now. Only takes a few pts of swing from here and he's buried.

    As I say, not a prediction. Just an outcome I very much don't rule out.
    I think a necessary condition for it to happen is for a viable alternative standard bearer to exist, who would also rile up Democrats. This is why Trump has always put so much effort into undermining any potential competitor within Republican circles.

    Every senior Republican politician has now either kowtowed to Trump, abasing themselves in the most humiliating manner, or they are marked as a traitor to the cause. Or both.

    It makes it very hard for the dam of Trump support to break. These voters aren't exactly going to start supporting the Democrats, and there's no credible third-party alternative either.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,003

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.

    Personally, I think that's wishful thinking.

    But it does seem incredulous that Sunak didn't do this a year earlier, soon after he took office, because if he'd gone into the election with this story he'd have saved dozens and dozens of seats from Reform.
    How did it happen that in one year overseas students were suddenly allowed to bring their families with them, a couple of hundred thousand extra people requiring housing and public services?
    At the time I think there was a desperation for H&SC workers.

    But, yes, astonishingly naïve since it's a huge and obvious backdoor migration route to the UK.
    As I might have said dozens of times, if they want to recruit H&SC workers all they need to do is set up a recruitment centre in Manila. They’d have tens of thousands of young ladies, without dependents, queuing around the block to sign up.
    Conversely, you could increase UK wages until enough UK workers volunteered to do it. People are not fuses to be thrown away if cheaper ones can be imported.
    How do you increase UK wages in the social care sector?
    Pay more money.

    Same as any other sector ever.
    Obvs.

    But where is the money to come from?

    Reeves isn't handing any over. She's just pulled the reforms carefully prepared and voted on several times since Cameron in 2010.

    Nothing is going to change now for years.
    Good that she pulled the reforms, the reforms were awful introducing a cap on costs. There is no cap, it costs what it costs.

    Finding the money is the final step, not the first. Care homes need to charge whatever they need to charge to fill their vacancies, no more and no less, then the money will have to be found. You can't find the money first then offer it, that's not supply and demand.
    Ending the social care costs cap was rightly a deeply unpopular move, 59% of voters opposed scrapping the cap, a mere 18% in favour
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50253-how-have-britons-reacted-to-rachel-reeves-spending-audit
    Boo hoo.

    Go cry me a river.

    It's not a good use of our taxes.
    Hopefully you will need it shortly and get chased you callous arsehole
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    I’m starting to feel a,little sorry for this idiot

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1821617092598047229?s=61

    Another flabbergasting clip. How he can keep rolling out these ludicrous falsehoods and remain a viable contender for US president is a mystery.

    But can he?

    I'm hoping that the dam breaks, emperor's new clothes like, and it all comes tumbling down by Nov 5th. An implosion, I mean, a collapse in popularity and the polls. Support falling right down to the cult faithful and GOP partisans. Low forties.

    I'm not predicting this but I do think it's possible. Hence why I have big Harris win in my Overton window.
    People have been waiting for the absurd Trump bubble to break for a long, long time.

    The line about going broke waiting for market rationality comes to mind.
    Indeed. But you get tipping points sometimes. He's older, crasser, crazier now. Only takes a few pts of swing from here and he's buried.

    As I say, not a prediction. Just an outcome I very much don't rule out.
    I think a necessary condition for it to happen is for a viable alternative standard bearer to exist, who would also rile up Democrats. This is why Trump has always put so much effort into undermining any potential competitor within Republican circles.

    Every senior Republican politician has now either kowtowed to Trump, abasing themselves in the most humiliating manner, or they are marked as a traitor to the cause. Or both.

    It makes it very hard for the dam of Trump support to break. These voters aren't exactly going to start supporting the Democrats, and there's no credible third-party alternative either.
    All very true.

    And for post Trump world - Haley is marketing herself as the moderate, return to sanity. Take a look at her policies…

    Just imagine what happens if someone semi normal looking and behaving takes over the MAGA brand….

    The 45% solid for Trump aren’t going to evaporate. They will be looking for a new leader.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,025
    Evening pb.
    Today, I left Holland and by causeway, bridge and tunnel travelled through Zeeland to Middelburg (hat tip @SeaShantyIrish ). I hadn't heard of the town before a fortnight ago. But it's splendid - attractive, clean, prosperous: obviously being Zeeland it's largely water based, but based around a splendid town square/town hall combo, and blessed also by a fine church tower reminiscent of Boston Stump.
    We didn't stay for long - anyone who remembers my travelogues from two years ago may remember our family benefited from a moody 12 year old daughter for whom NOTHING WAS RIGHT; this particular individual is now the sunniest 14 year old one could imagine, but the role she has vacated has been enthusiastiastically taken up by her younger sister - so there is less opportunity for easygoing and carefree moiching than there mighe be - but nonetheless I was charmed by Middelburg and Zeeland in a way I wasn't by Amsterdam and Holland. There is much more space, and the comfortable, unshowy feel of the place is highly agreeable.


  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,025
    Cookie said:

    Evening pb.
    Today, I left Holland and by causeway, bridge and tunnel travelled through Zeeland to Middelburg (hat tip @SeaShantyIrish ). I hadn't heard of the town before a fortnight ago. But it's splendid - attractive, clean, prosperous: obviously being Zeeland it's largely water based, but based around a splendid town square/town hall combo, and blessed also by a fine church tower reminiscent of Boston Stump.
    We didn't stay for long - anyone who remembers my travelogues from two years ago may remember our family benefited from a moody 12 year old daughter for whom NOTHING WAS RIGHT; this particular individual is now the sunniest 14 year old one could imagine, but the role she has vacated has been enthusiastiastically taken up by her younger sister - so there is less opportunity for easygoing and carefree moiching than there mighe be - but nonetheless I was charmed by Middelburg and Zeeland in a way I wasn't by Amsterdam and Holland. There is much more space, and the comfortable, unshowy feel of the place is highly agreeable.


    ... But we've moved on now and have arrived in Belgium. We're staying at a Centerparcs near De Haan, which is far preferable to its English counterparts. It's just a nice holiday park - they don't expect you to stay there for your whole stay, not least because there is a rather good beach just over the dunes - and they don't try to cultivate the impression that the rest of the world doesn't exist. I like Belgium immediately: first of all, it's pleasant to be above sea level again in an environment which isn't entirely man made, and it's slightly less crowded - but it also feels recognisably shambolic in a way the Netherlands didn't. Things work, but it feels more by accident than design.
    I've only been here a few hours and the impression may be misleading - but I feel much more comfortable here.
This discussion has been closed.