At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
How is inciting violence online any difference to inciting violence in person?
You keep banging on about inconsistent policing but here is an example of the opposite. You just don't like it because it means a drunken tirade on PB might land you in as much trouble as that Labour councillor.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
Personally, I think that's wishful thinking.
But it does seem incredulous that Sunak didn't do this a year earlier, soon after he took office, because if he'd gone into the election with this story he'd have saved dozens and dozens of seats from Reform.
How did it happen that in one year overseas students were suddenly allowed to bring their families with them, a couple of hundred thousand extra people requiring housing and public services?
At the time I think there was a desperation for H&SC workers.
But, yes, astonishingly naïve since it's a huge and obvious backdoor migration route to the UK.
As I might have said dozens of times, if they want to recruit H&SC workers all they need to do is set up a recruitment centre in Manila. They’d have tens of thousands of young ladies, without dependents, queuing around the block to sign up.
Conversely, you could increase UK wages until enough UK workers volunteered to do it. People are not fuses to be thrown away if cheaper ones can be imported.
How do you increase UK wages in the social care sector?
Pay more money.
Same as any other sector ever.
Obvs.
But where is the money to come from?
Reeves isn't handing any over. She's just pulled the reforms carefully prepared and voted on several times since Cameron in 2010.
Nothing is going to change now for years.
Good that she pulled the reforms, the reforms were awful introducing a cap on costs. There is no cap, it costs what it costs.
Finding the money is the final step, not the first. Care homes need to charge whatever they need to charge to fill their vacancies, no more and no less, then the money will have to be found. You can't find the money first then offer it, that's not supply and demand.
Supply and demand is a simplistic model here given how much one customer dominates, in terms of how central government effectively controls spend.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
Personally, I think that's wishful thinking.
But it does seem incredulous that Sunak didn't do this a year earlier, soon after he took office, because if he'd gone into the election with this story he'd have saved dozens and dozens of seats from Reform.
How did it happen that in one year overseas students were suddenly allowed to bring their families with them, a couple of hundred thousand extra people requiring housing and public services?
At the time I think there was a desperation for H&SC workers.
But, yes, astonishingly naïve since it's a huge and obvious backdoor migration route to the UK.
As I might have said dozens of times, if they want to recruit H&SC workers all they need to do is set up a recruitment centre in Manila. They’d have tens of thousands of young ladies, without dependents, queuing around the block to sign up.
Conversely, you could increase UK wages until enough UK workers volunteered to do it. People are not fuses to be thrown away if cheaper ones can be imported.
How do you increase UK wages in the social care sector?
Pay more money.
Same as any other sector ever.
Obvs.
But where is the money to come from?
Reeves isn't handing any over. She's just pulled the reforms carefully prepared and voted on several times since Cameron in 2010.
Nothing is going to change now for years.
Good that she pulled the reforms, the reforms were awful introducing a cap on costs. There is no cap, it costs what it costs.
Finding the money is the final step, not the first. Care homes need to charge whatever they need to charge to fill their vacancies, no more and no less, then the money will have to be found. You can't find the money first then offer it, that's not supply and demand.
Supply and demand is a simplistic model here given how much one customer dominates, in terms of how central government effectively controls spend.
Monopsony, in economics speak. A good example of it.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
So let's talk about the important things of the day. On breakfast TV they were talking to some farmers and talking about how quickly they freeze peas and that frozen peas taste like fresh peas. It is a story often told and I heard a top chef saying the same thing a week or so ago.
Now I find frozen peas and in particular frozen broad beans tasteless, yet I love fresh one. For me there is no comparison and I always buy fresh if I can get them, which is a challenge (pick your own is the best opportunity). This year I decided to grow my own and they are wonderful. Up until now I have only grown fruit and tend to restrict myself to stuff that I can't get in Sainsburys, or if I can, only in very small quantities without a mortgage. So stuff I grow or forage are damsons, blackberries, medlars, blackcurrants, gooseberries, elderberries, etc.
So is it just me or do others agree that fresh peas and broad beans are miles better than frozen ones (contrary to perceived wisdom or marketing hype).
Certainly so. Easy to grow too. The difficulty with peas is that even when I sow 2 weeks apart with the intention of a longer cropping season they still all crop at the same time. The later swings just seem to catch up.
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
How is inciting violence online any difference to inciting violence in person?
You keep banging on about inconsistent policing but here is an example of the opposite. You just don't like it because it means a drunken tirade on PB might land you in as much trouble as that Labour councillor.
You don’t find the voice tone ever-so-slightly menacing?
So let's talk about the important things of the day. On breakfast TV they were talking to some farmers and talking about how quickly they freeze peas and that frozen peas taste like fresh peas. It is a story often told and I heard a top chef saying the same thing a week or so ago.
Now I find frozen peas and in particular frozen broad beans tasteless, yet I love fresh one. For me there is no comparison and I always buy fresh if I can get them, which is a challenge (pick your own is the best opportunity). This year I decided to grow my own and they are wonderful. Up until now I have only grown fruit and tend to restrict myself to stuff that I can't get in Sainsburys, or if I can, only in very small quantities without a mortgage. So stuff I grow or forage are damsons, blackberries, medlars, blackcurrants, gooseberries, elderberries, etc.
So is it just me or do others agree that fresh peas and broad beans are miles better than frozen ones (contrary to perceived wisdom or marketing hype).
I think it depends upon how they're cooked as well as how they're defrosted.
If you boil things you lose a lot of the flavour and I know many people boil frozen peas, so that's a lot of the flavour gone - and if you're cooking from frozen then you have to do so for longer which blanches and gets rid of the flavour even longer.
Steamed or stir fry etc is much better than boiling and easier to do with fresh, but I've not tried defrosting frozen and then doing the same. If you did, I imagine there'd be quite similar.
I'm currently defrosting some steaks (which I bought fresh but then froze) for lunch and dinner today. So long as food is defrosted properly, I personally can't tell a difference between formerly-frozen and not. Its the lack of defrosting I think is the bigger problem.
It's a start, I suppose, but I can't help thinking converting it into housing would be better.
There needs to be severely escalating business rates charged on empty retail space.
The basic underlying issue is that landlords won’t reduce rents in line with market expectations, because that means having to mark down the value of the asset on their books. They would rather the units stay empty, often for years, than be revalued.
That’s the stick. The carrot can be that turning retail space into housing doesn’t require planning permission.
We have a lot of retail space in Dundee city centre that has been empty for more than 20 years. The problem with converting it is that planning permission for housing requires them to provide parking etc for residents which simply cannot be done in city centres at an economic cost. So we sit surrounded by dilapidating buildings making the High Street and associated streets ever less desirable. Its a negative spiral we really need to break.
Well you’ve got at least four options there. 1. Knock down one of the units and use for parking. 2. Lease parking spaces in a council-owned car park somewhere close by. 3. Allow residents to buy season tickets for on-street parking in the centre zone. 4. Just sell the units with no parking, and let the residents find somewhere to park on the street.
As always, the issue is planning, and the inability of everyone to think outside the box in persuance of the goal of using the space for housing.
Nope - not full Planning.
Planning Permission has not been required for retail to residential conversions since 2021, and before then it was only Change of Use and Building Regs, which was not onerous.
I should know - I looked at a project around 2017 for my own family's rental shop, but mum popped her clogs first so we sold it quickly at auction.
The issue will be what it was when Cameron & Co introduced Permitted Development Office -> Housing conversions in ~2013, which has generated a *lot* of housing units but also a lot a miserably substandard shoebox flats, and a crop of scandals.
The problem is quality / liveability and enforcement of adequate quality, and the only way to do that is through more capacity and professionalism in the Building Control departments of Local Authorities.
Interesting, I did not know that. How come it is so difficult to convert a pub to a house? E.g. this place would be worth 2-3 times as much as a house:
Re DavidL's comments on Dundee - a number of the local shops where I live have been converted one or two at a time to houses without any requirement for offstreet parking that I can see, over the last 20 years or so, though the bigger developments (converting a Co-op and demolishing an old shop/house to make room for flats) do have associated parking in their original backyards.
They would assess it based on local pressure on parking, and if there is no excess pressure - then no need for a dedicated space.
It would also free up whatever parking was used by customers of the previous business, whcih may well have been greater.
So let's talk about the important things of the day. On breakfast TV they were talking to some farmers and talking about how quickly they freeze peas and that frozen peas taste like fresh peas. It is a story often told and I heard a top chef saying the same thing a week or so ago.
Now I find frozen peas and in particular frozen broad beans tasteless, yet I love fresh one. For me there is no comparison and I always buy fresh if I can get them, which is a challenge (pick your own is the best opportunity). This year I decided to grow my own and they are wonderful. Up until now I have only grown fruit and tend to restrict myself to stuff that I can't get in Sainsburys, or if I can, only in very small quantities without a mortgage. So stuff I grow or forage are damsons, blackberries, medlars, blackcurrants, gooseberries, elderberries, etc.
So is it just me or do others agree that fresh peas and broad beans are miles better than frozen ones (contrary to perceived wisdom or marketing hype).
I think it depends upon how they're cooked as well as how they're defrosted.
If you boil things you lose a lot of the flavour and I know many people boil frozen peas, so that's a lot of the flavour gone - and if you're cooking from frozen then you have to do so for longer which blanches and gets rid of the flavour even longer.
Steamed or stir fry etc is much better than boiling and easier to do with fresh, but I've not tried defrosting frozen and then doing the same. If you did, I imagine there'd be quite similar.
I'm currently defrosting some steaks (which I bought fresh but then froze) for lunch and dinner today. So long as food is defrosted properly, I personally can't tell a difference between formerly-frozen and not. Its the lack of defrosting I think is the bigger problem.
Also the cultivar used. Farm cultivars tend to be easy to harvest by machine, crop at specific times, don't bruise so easily (where relevant), etc.; allotment ones often chosen for flavour, and it's good if they spread out their crop over time. Very obvious in potatoes, raspberries, and so on.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
Migration numbers for the rest of this year and next year will be well below those levels for the reasons @MaxPB has spelt out. I'm not making any forecasts for the numbers from 2026 on, but 200k/year is not that ridiculous - it's less than 0.3% per year.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
Personally, I think that's wishful thinking.
But it does seem incredulous that Sunak didn't do this a year earlier, soon after he took office, because if he'd gone into the election with this story he'd have saved dozens and dozens of seats from Reform.
How did it happen that in one year overseas students were suddenly allowed to bring their families with them, a couple of hundred thousand extra people requiring housing and public services?
At the time I think there was a desperation for H&SC workers.
But, yes, astonishingly naïve since it's a huge and obvious backdoor migration route to the UK.
As I might have said dozens of times, if they want to recruit H&SC workers all they need to do is set up a recruitment centre in Manila. They’d have tens of thousands of young ladies, without dependents, queuing around the block to sign up.
Conversely, you could increase UK wages until enough UK workers volunteered to do it. People are not fuses to be thrown away if cheaper ones can be imported.
How do you increase UK wages in the social care sector?
Pay more money.
Same as any other sector ever.
Obvs.
But where is the money to come from?
Reeves isn't handing any over. She's just pulled the reforms carefully prepared and voted on several times since Cameron in 2010.
Nothing is going to change now for years.
Good that she pulled the reforms, the reforms were awful introducing a cap on costs. There is no cap, it costs what it costs.
Finding the money is the final step, not the first. Care homes need to charge whatever they need to charge to fill their vacancies, no more and no less, then the money will have to be found. You can't find the money first then offer it, that's not supply and demand.
Supply and demand is a simplistic model here given how much one customer dominates, in terms of how central government effectively controls spend.
Except one customer doesn't dominate the labour market and I'm talking supply and demand of labour.
That's kind of the point, people in the labour market have many possible employers (customers) to go to and if being offered minimum wage plus tips to wait on tables, or minimum wage to wipe bums, not many people are going to choose to wipe bums.
Even within the sector each employer is separate, not a monopsony.
Yes at the other end of the market Councils pay a lot of the funding, but they're legally obliged to.
The home is obliged to have staff - if they don't, the CQC will safeguard them. The Council is obliged to pay for funding.
Neither the Council nor families will like paying the market rate for staff. Tough.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
The guardian is wrong and they don't know how to do simple maths. The number of people applying for visas currently is down by something like 80% compared to 2022 and the students that arrived in 2022 are all having to find jobs at £39k or go home which means most of them (and their dependents) are going home over the next year because companies aren't going to hire them for that kind of salary. I think 2025 and 2026 will see a period of net emigration. And then it will stabilise in 2027.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
Migration numbers for the rest of this year and next year will be well below those levels for the reasons @MaxPB has spelt out. I'm not making any forecasts for the numbers from 2026 on, but 200k/year is not that ridiculous - it's less than 0.3% per year.
200k/year net works, so long as there’s a million housing units also built per year.
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
How is inciting violence online any difference to inciting violence in person?
You keep banging on about inconsistent policing but here is an example of the opposite. You just don't like it because it means a drunken tirade on PB might land you in as much trouble as that Labour councillor.
You don’t find the voice tone ever-so-slightly menacing?
Hmm, I can't hear any voice over in that video at all. Checked with laptop and phone. It... might be in your head?
Check your carbon monoxide detector and detox from twitter.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
It would be very welcome news for Labour if net migration falls markedly under their watch. Even if it's not their doing.
Hopefully we can still attract enough overseas students to pay the bills at proper universities and colleges.
Yep, things are set up for Labour to succeed on immigration - defining success as the numbers coming down. It's virtually bound to happen simply because the Cons increased it so much in their last years of government. Same on small boats. The asylum system is in such a mess that the only way is up. It's all part of the golden (political) legacy that SKS has inherited.
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
The guardian is wrong and they don't know how to do simple maths. The number of people applying for visas currently is down by something like 80% compared to 2022 and the students that arrived in 2022 are all having to find jobs at £39k or go home which means most of them (and their dependents) are going home over the next year because companies aren't going to hire them for that kind of salary. I think 2025 and 2026 will see a period of net emigration. And then it will stabilise in 2027.
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Have you seen the kinds of people doing the replying? They're mostly Qanon obsessed American nutters who don't have a positive view of anyone who's surname isn't Trump.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
The guardian is wrong and they don't know how to do simple maths. The number of people applying for visas currently is down by something like 80% compared to 2022 and the students that arrived in 2022 are all having to find jobs at £39k or go home which means most of them (and their dependents) are going home over the next year because companies aren't going to hire them for that kind of salary. I think 2025 and 2026 will see a period of net emigration. And then it will stabilise in 2027.
If it does happen it means Labour will get the credit for it and, perversely, that will help keep them in office despite them having no real interest in controlling immigration.
It makes Sunak's choices pre-election unfathomable.
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
How is inciting violence online any difference to inciting violence in person?
You keep banging on about inconsistent policing but here is an example of the opposite. You just don't like it because it means a drunken tirade on PB might land you in as much trouble as that Labour councillor.
You don’t find the voice tone ever-so-slightly menacing?
Judging by the comments on here lots of people seem to be fine with making others conform to whatever the received opinion of the day is, even if what they say does not amount to incitement to violence, which is rightly a criminal offence.
“Freedom of expression constitutes one of the essential foundations of a [“democratic society”], one of the basic conditions for its progress and for the development of every man. Subject to paragraph 2 of Article 10 …it is applicable not only to “information” or “ideas” that are favourably received or regarded as inoffensive or as a matter of indifference, but also to those that offend, shock or disturb the State or any sector of the population. Such are the demands of that pluralism, tolerance and broadmindedness without which there is no “democratic society”.
Some foreign court said that. And against the U.K. too. Bastards!
There are close to 3m economically inactive people of working age. It's time to get tough on benefits and push people into work.
Just let supply and demand do its job and let prices adjust to the point that vacancies are filled by wages being the market rate. If you want to hire people, you need to pay whatever it costs to hire them.
If I were an unskilled worker looking for minimum wage work would I want to wipe people's bums in a care home for minimum wage, or make coffee in a café, or wait on tables in a restaurant for minimum wage plus tips?
No brainer, I would not be choosing to wipe people's bums.
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
You’re going to find out that if you chat shit then you’re going to get banged.
You still haven’t told us why you’re opposed to stopping the inciting racial hatred online?
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
You voted for this, like a Frenchman you surrender/flee at the first sign of trouble.
So let's talk about the important things of the day. On breakfast TV they were talking to some farmers and talking about how quickly they freeze peas and that frozen peas taste like fresh peas. It is a story often told and I heard a top chef saying the same thing a week or so ago.
Now I find frozen peas and in particular frozen broad beans tasteless, yet I love fresh one. For me there is no comparison and I always buy fresh if I can get them, which is a challenge (pick your own is the best opportunity). This year I decided to grow my own and they are wonderful. Up until now I have only grown fruit and tend to restrict myself to stuff that I can't get in Sainsburys, or if I can, only in very small quantities without a mortgage. So stuff I grow or forage are damsons, blackberries, medlars, blackcurrants, gooseberries, elderberries, etc.
So is it just me or do others agree that fresh peas and broad beans are miles better than frozen ones (contrary to perceived wisdom or marketing hype).
Certainly so. Easy to grow too. The difficulty with peas is that even when I sow 2 weeks apart with the intention of a longer cropping season they still all crop at the same time. The later swings just seem to catch up.
I don’t have access to very fresh peas on a regular basis (I could grow them if I wanted to), but I believe the case for frozen is that the peas' flavour would decline over the time they took to harvest them, get them on the shelf, and sell them. Vs. 'locking in' the flavour by freezing them straight away. Could be bollocks but makes some sort of sense.
There are close to 3m economically inactive people of working age. It's time to get tough on benefits and push people into work.
There's a scam going on with care worker visas.
Agency A applies for a thousand care worker visas from the Home Office. Home office grants it without any checks on agency A because they're 'not fit for purpose' as Lord Reid once put it. Agency tells people abroad they can get a care worker visa if they pay £x,000 to the agency. Person B pays said money, comes over. Care home C might or might not have a job for person B, in the meantime Person B brings over dependants E, F and G. Happens there's no job at care home C - so now B, E, F and G are all living off the taxpayer. Agency A doesn't care as they've got £x,000 off person B.
Then that worker has to show employment or go home, in very short order people who are paying the thousands to these dodgy visa agents will dry up as it becomes known that there's no chance of actually staying and working becomes part of the visa terms.
But the government needs to actually show the ability to deport people, otherwise the pull factors willl continue.
The real problem is the recruitment agencies. Just have the government open recruitment centres at or near embassies, it costs almost nothing.
Recruitment agencies were banned in the sandpit more than a decade ago, as they’re parasites who abuse workers and their families.
That's easy, if they don't have contributions under PAYE then get them on the plane home.
But they have a cat, and a girlfriend, and a taxpayer-funded lawyer who can draw out the process for as long as it takes them to have a baby and a wife…
Make it part of the visa terms that you need constant PAYE contributions from day one or face deportation. People on visas should be very easy to deport. It's asylum seekers and refugees that are much more difficult to do so. Also remove legal aid from visa overstayers. That's another very easy reform.
The problem with the legal aid issue is that you have cases where there's nobody representing the asylum seeker, and that means that the judge ends up deferring the case. Right now, even with legal aid, that happens all the time, because those cases pay really poorly.
What we want is for cases to be processed efficiently and quickly, and without delay.
And that probably means spending more money, rather than less. What we need to have is something equivalent to the public defenders office in the US, so there's no need to go out to outside firms of lawyers.
So let's talk about the important things of the day. On breakfast TV they were talking to some farmers and talking about how quickly they freeze peas and that frozen peas taste like fresh peas. It is a story often told and I heard a top chef saying the same thing a week or so ago.
Now I find frozen peas and in particular frozen broad beans tasteless, yet I love fresh one. For me there is no comparison and I always buy fresh if I can get them, which is a challenge (pick your own is the best opportunity). This year I decided to grow my own and they are wonderful. Up until now I have only grown fruit and tend to restrict myself to stuff that I can't get in Sainsburys, or if I can, only in very small quantities without a mortgage. So stuff I grow or forage are damsons, blackberries, medlars, blackcurrants, gooseberries, elderberries, etc.
So is it just me or do others agree that fresh peas and broad beans are miles better than frozen ones (contrary to perceived wisdom or marketing hype).
can't beat freshly picked peas but anything bought will be worse than frozen, as they deteriorate within 24 hours. People cook peas too long. Frozen peas need 2 mins cooking, no salt in water, then cooling in iced water.
Yes, the final pair will be Culture Warrior vs One Nation, with the Culture Warrior winning the membership.
One Nation may have the MPs but certainly don't have the membership. Expect Jenrick vs Tugenhadt though.
And if Jenrick wins I fully expect him to tack to the centre over time.
Another couple of massive election defeats should do it?
That is what it took last time. I can't see this time being any different. In spite of PB Tories views on SKS I think he has had a decent start and will get the bad stuff out of the way in the next two years with a view to winning in 2029.
So any Tory delusion that 2029 will be 2024 in reverse will be misplaced.
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Pissing off a load of online cranks and bigots is hugely damaging to our international image?
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
The guardian is wrong and they don't know how to do simple maths. The number of people applying for visas currently is down by something like 80% compared to 2022 and the students that arrived in 2022 are all having to find jobs at £39k or go home which means most of them (and their dependents) are going home over the next year because companies aren't going to hire them for that kind of salary. I think 2025 and 2026 will see a period of net emigration. And then it will stabilise in 2027.
If it does happen it means Labour will get the credit for it and, perversely, that will help keep them in office despite them having no real interest in controlling immigration.
It makes Sunak's choices pre-election unfathomable.
The person most to blame in Johnson, because he was PM when the initial post Brexit visa regulations were put in place. But it was then ignored by Truss and Sunak, until it was too late.
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
You’re going to find out that if you chat shit then you’re going to get banged.
You still haven’t told us why you’re opposed to stopping the inciting racial hatred online?
Imagine he's afraid there's copies of the pre vanilla below the line comments on this site floating around somewhere
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
Migration numbers for the rest of this year and next year will be well below those levels for the reasons @MaxPB has spelt out. I'm not making any forecasts for the numbers from 2026 on, but 200k/year is not that ridiculous - it's less than 0.3% per year.
200k/year net works, so long as there’s a million housing units also built per year.
Clearly there needs to be lots of housebuilding... but if you assume an occupancy ratio of 3-1, then at 200k/year the immigration component of housing demand is only about 70k.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
The guardian is wrong and they don't know how to do simple maths. The number of people applying for visas currently is down by something like 80% compared to 2022 and the students that arrived in 2022 are all having to find jobs at £39k or go home which means most of them (and their dependents) are going home over the next year because companies aren't going to hire them for that kind of salary. I think 2025 and 2026 will see a period of net emigration. And then it will stabilise in 2027.
If it does happen it means Labour will get the credit for it and, perversely, that will help keep them in office despite them having no real interest in controlling immigration.
It makes Sunak's choices pre-election unfathomable.
The person most to blame in Johnson, because he was PM when the initial post Brexit visa regulations were put in place. But it was then ignored by Truss and Sunak, until it was too late.
There are close to 3m economically inactive people of working age. It's time to get tough on benefits and push people into work.
Just let supply and demand do its job and let prices adjust to the point that vacancies are filled by wages being the market rate. If you want to hire people, you need to pay whatever it costs to hire them.
If I were an unskilled worker looking for minimum wage work would I want to wipe people's bums in a care home for minimum wage, or make coffee in a café, or wait on tables in a restaurant for minimum wage plus tips?
No brainer, I would not be choosing to wipe people's bums.
As a father, I have to do that for free.
Hire a nanny though I have to inform you that a certain genre of films massively overstates what a nanny will do for you as I found out.
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
Doesn't that dilute the coffee to an unacceptable degree?
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
I think that just confirms what a cesspit twitter is. It's perfectly reasonable government communications during a period of violence, highlighting what the law is and bringing attention to a tweet by E&W's independent prosecution service.
This kind of violent threat has driven a number of active travel advocates off social media (including me to an extent, after I was warned by the police that someone had my address). It stifles the kind of free speech you wish to defend.
Yes, the final pair will be Culture Warrior vs One Nation, with the Culture Warrior winning the membership.
One Nation may have the MPs but certainly don't have the membership. Expect Jenrick vs Tugenhadt though.
And if Jenrick wins I fully expect him to tack to the centre over time.
Another couple of massive election defeats should do it?
That is what it took last time. I can't see this time being any different. In spite of PB Tories views on SKS I think he has had a decent start and will get the bad stuff out of the way in the next two years with a view to winning in 2029.
So any Tory delusion that 2029 will be 2024 in reverse will be misplaced.
He's had a shit start.
Astonishingly so.
How?
He's cut benefits people haven't paid to get. That should be something you should welcome.
And he's been faced with rioting and he's let the Police and Courts do their job, same as Cameron. That should be something you should welcome.
So far he's quite Cameroon. Just without letting pensioners evade their fair share of austerity.
So let's talk about the important things of the day. On breakfast TV they were talking to some farmers and talking about how quickly they freeze peas and that frozen peas taste like fresh peas. It is a story often told and I heard a top chef saying the same thing a week or so ago.
Now I find frozen peas and in particular frozen broad beans tasteless, yet I love fresh one. For me there is no comparison and I always buy fresh if I can get them, which is a challenge (pick your own is the best opportunity). This year I decided to grow my own and they are wonderful. Up until now I have only grown fruit and tend to restrict myself to stuff that I can't get in Sainsburys, or if I can, only in very small quantities without a mortgage. So stuff I grow or forage are damsons, blackberries, medlars, blackcurrants, gooseberries, elderberries, etc.
So is it just me or do others agree that fresh peas and broad beans are miles better than frozen ones (contrary to perceived wisdom or marketing hype).
Yes. Do you have a local farm shop?
I also have a chap who parks his tractor trailer in a field gate on Saturday morningsabout 4 miles away, and if I want fresh stuff I cycle there and get them. Total word of mouth marketing. Normally I don't eat enough to justify a unique trip.
I like growing soft fruit, because the retail cost is high. But I sometimes buy berries in bulk online (2kg bags) for the freezer.
I have most of the above in my garden, plus strawberries and raspberries and blueberries when the latter have grown. I'd suggest redcurrants as worth their weight. But at present my garden has reverted to a jungle which has swallowed everything. I've been ill long-term and have never been good at the "half an hour a day in the garden" thing.
My tip for the best fruit in the world would be Greengages, which are amazing. I'm dreaming about them as vertical cordons in front of the posts when my S-facing veranda arrives. Can be in containers.
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Have you seen the kinds of people doing the replying? They're mostly Qanon obsessed American nutters who don't have a positive view of anyone who's surname isn't Trump.
lol. They have now removed the ability to reply
What a triumph for Gov.UK. Write a tweet to really send a message, then realise the tweet is so madly offensive and unpopular it gets bitterly mocked, worldwide, and now the government is actively trying to hide the tweet. They’ll probably end up deleting it. Brilliant way to send the message. Gold star for PR
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
So you are going to be fleeing a police state taking up hotel rooms badly needed by the locals?
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
The guardian is wrong and they don't know how to do simple maths. The number of people applying for visas currently is down by something like 80% compared to 2022 and the students that arrived in 2022 are all having to find jobs at £39k or go home which means most of them (and their dependents) are going home over the next year because companies aren't going to hire them for that kind of salary. I think 2025 and 2026 will see a period of net emigration. And then it will stabilise in 2027.
If it does happen it means Labour will get the credit for it and, perversely, that will help keep them in office despite them having no real interest in controlling immigration.
It makes Sunak's choices pre-election unfathomable.
Yes, this was the point I was making before the election was called. November seemed like a much better time to go because net migration in November will be something like 250k for the year because of visa changes he and Cleverly brought in. What I don't understand is why they didn't make those changes at the end of 2022 when it had already become clear that the care worker visa and the student visa systems were being abused. They waited for far too long, and paid the price. If the Tories had acted in 2022 net migration in November this year would be 150k or so which I think most people wouldn't blink at and I think the government would have had the bandwidth to tackle the boats properly rather than juggle 600k legal migrants and 80k people coming illegally.
If they'd done it properly I think the Tories not only wouldn't be down in the dumps they'd probably have something like 250 seats and Reform would be nowhere. Labour would have the most seats or a very slim majority.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
Migration numbers for the rest of this year and next year will be well below those levels for the reasons @MaxPB has spelt out. I'm not making any forecasts for the numbers from 2026 on, but 200k/year is not that ridiculous - it's less than 0.3% per year.
200k/year net works, so long as there’s a million housing units also built per year.
Clearly there needs to be lots of housebuilding... but if you assume an occupancy ratio of 3-1, then at 200k/year the immigration component of housing demand is only about 70k.
Oh indeed, but to get public support for more immigration the cost of housing needs to be seen to be falling.
To go back to my earlier example, most Brits would be over the moon to see 1m Filipina care workers and nurses, and 100k Indian doctors, turn up in the UK, so long as their personal cost of housing was substantially falling.
Support for immigration depends on that immigration not causing shortages.
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Have you seen the kinds of people doing the replying? They're mostly Qanon obsessed American nutters who don't have a positive view of anyone who's surname isn't Trump.
lol. They have now removed the ability to reply
What a triumph for Gov.UK. Write a tweet to really send a message, then realise the tweet is so madly offensive and unpopular it gets bitterly mocked, worldwide, and now the government is actively trying to hide the tweet. They’ll probably end up deleting it. Brilliant way to send the message. Gold star for PR
Farcical morons
Its not offensive to write what the law is.
Getting mocked by trolls online is irrelevant.
David Cameron was right when he said that Twitter isn't Britain. Foreign trolls on Twitter are even less Britain.
So let's talk about the important things of the day. On breakfast TV they were talking to some farmers and talking about how quickly they freeze peas and that frozen peas taste like fresh peas. It is a story often told and I heard a top chef saying the same thing a week or so ago.
Now I find frozen peas and in particular frozen broad beans tasteless, yet I love fresh one. For me there is no comparison and I always buy fresh if I can get them, which is a challenge (pick your own is the best opportunity). This year I decided to grow my own and they are wonderful. Up until now I have only grown fruit and tend to restrict myself to stuff that I can't get in Sainsburys, or if I can, only in very small quantities without a mortgage. So stuff I grow or forage are damsons, blackberries, medlars, blackcurrants, gooseberries, elderberries, etc.
So is it just me or do others agree that fresh peas and broad beans are miles better than frozen ones (contrary to perceived wisdom or marketing hype).
Yes. Do you have a local farm shop?
I also have a chap who parks his tractor trailer in a field gate on Saturday morningsabout 4 miles away, and if I want fresh stuff I cycle there and get them. Total word of mouth marketing. Normally I don't eat enough to justify a unique trip.
I like growing soft fruit, because the retail cost is high. But I sometimes buy berries in bulk online (2kg bags) for the freezer.
I have most of the above in my garden, plus strawberries and raspberries and blueberries when the latter have grown. I'd suggest redcurrants as worth their weight. But at present my garden has reverted to a jungle which has swallowed everything. I've been ill long-term and have never been good at the "half an hour a day in the garden" thing.
My tip for the best fruit in the world would be Greengages, which are amazing. I'm dreaming about them as vertical cordons in front of the posts when my S-facing veranda arrives. Can be in containers.
Have you ever found anywhere where you can bulk buy apples online ? Or pressed apple juice ?
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Have you seen the kinds of people doing the replying? They're mostly Qanon obsessed American nutters who don't have a positive view of anyone who's surname isn't Trump.
lol. They have now removed the ability to reply
What a triumph for Gov.UK. Write a tweet to really send a message, then realise the tweet is so madly offensive and unpopular it gets bitterly mocked, worldwide, and now the government is actively trying to hide the tweet. They’ll probably end up deleting it. Brilliant way to send the message. Gold star for PR
Farcical morons
Its not offensive to write what the law is.
Getting mocked by trolls online is irrelevant.
David Cameron was right when he said that Twitter isn't Britain. Foreign trolls on Twitter are even less Britain.
But the UKG govt clearly does care about Twitter, hence the hysterical calls to ban it or restrict it
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
So you are going to be fleeing a police state taking up hotel rooms badly needed by the locals?
Woman who allegedly first started the rumour the killer was an asylum seeker that led to the riots lives in a £1.5M house and is a director of a clothing company. Not so white working class.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
Migration numbers for the rest of this year and next year will be well below those levels for the reasons @MaxPB has spelt out. I'm not making any forecasts for the numbers from 2026 on, but 200k/year is not that ridiculous - it's less than 0.3% per year.
200k/year net works, so long as there’s a million housing units also built per year.
Clearly there needs to be lots of housebuilding... but if you assume an occupancy ratio of 3-1, then at 200k/year the immigration component of housing demand is only about 70k.
Oh indeed, but to get public support for more immigration the cost of housing needs to be seen to be falling.
To go back to my earlier example, most Brits would be over the moon to see 1m Filipina care workers and nurses, and 100k Indian doctors, turn up in the UK, so long as their personal cost of housing was substantially falling.
Support for immigration depends on that immigration not causing shortages.
Though the recent riots were in places that housing is as cheap as chips, and even against a mosque that is so integrated it raises money for the poppy appeal and had a jubilee party for the Queen.
These weren't housing riots, they were racist riots.
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Have you seen the kinds of people doing the replying? They're mostly Qanon obsessed American nutters who don't have a positive view of anyone who's surname isn't Trump.
Even Catturd ™ has taken a break from rimming Elon and Trump to have a prolapse about it. Heartening that so many Yanks take an interest in the freedom of another country. Strangely these lads don't seem so concerned about Putin's Russia.
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
So you are going to be fleeing a police state taking up hotel rooms badly needed by the locals?
The cost and provision of social care remains the elephant in the room though the fundamental is really about how we deal with people when they get old. In many other societies, the family takes care of elderly relatives and no doubt that happens a lot here and it should be, I think, the default position that just as your parents took care of you when you couldn't take care of yourself, you should take care of them when they can't manage.
That's as much a cultural and societal issue as it is an economic and legal one though there's plenty that could be done to move it along - incentives for building extensions (the dreaded "granny flat"), support for those who care whole or part time for elderly relatives including tax breaks for employers to employ carers.
Yes. there will be instances when the level of care required is beyond the capacity of any family (dementia for example but other mental and physical issues) and at that point the care sector needs to step in to provide the specialist care in appropriate locations to assist those who cannot be supported at home or in the family.
I see issues with "retirement communities" but if properly regulated and well resourced, they can be invaluable for those wishing to downsize in current years and move to some form of sheltered or supported living.
You just don't fob off the elderly with money, with the "triple lock" or whatever, it's much more than that. It's about giving older people a purpose, the opportunity to contribute to be valued not to be shut away in a corner with a lot of cash. That requires a societal change - we talk a lot abour worklife balance but that applies to those who have retired as well and may want to do a little just to be and to feel useful.
Finally, working with "the old" shouldn't be stigmatised or downgraded - "care" should be elevated to a serious profession (it's as important as being a lawyer or solicitor, arguably more so). Working in the residential care sector needs to be adequately rewarded and recognised but, at the same time, those who run private residential care homes need strong and robust regulation - to be honest, I'd rather take the profit out of care but that's unlikely.
"The Labour MP for Rochester and Strood has apologised after offensive social media posts resurfaced.
In a statement on Thursday, Lauren Edwards said: "I have recently been made aware of a small number of tweets that I posted on twitter from over a decade ago, which I now deeply regret."
One of the since-deleted tweets posted to X, external, formerly Twitter, in July 2009, read: I want these [expletive] Estonian retards out of my flat now!""
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
Migration numbers for the rest of this year and next year will be well below those levels for the reasons @MaxPB has spelt out. I'm not making any forecasts for the numbers from 2026 on, but 200k/year is not that ridiculous - it's less than 0.3% per year.
200k/year net works, so long as there’s a million housing units also built per year.
Clearly there needs to be lots of housebuilding... but if you assume an occupancy ratio of 3-1, then at 200k/year the immigration component of housing demand is only about 70k.
Oh indeed, but to get public support for more immigration the cost of housing needs to be seen to be falling.
To go back to my earlier example, most Brits would be over the moon to see 1m Filipina care workers and nurses, and 100k Indian doctors, turn up in the UK, so long as their personal cost of housing was substantially falling.
Support for immigration depends on that immigration not causing shortages.
Though the recent riots were in places that housing is as cheap as chips, and even against a mosque that is so integrated it raises money for the poppy appeal and had a jubilee party for the Queen.
These weren't housing riots, they were racist riots.
That is partial bullshit.
Yes they're racist riots but name one place in the country with housing as cheap as chips?
House price to earning ratios are broken in the entire country. They are too high everywhere in England and Wales.
Houses are too expensive everywhere the riots happened.
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
So you are going to be fleeing a police state taking up hotel rooms badly needed by the locals?
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
So you are going to be fleeing a police state taking up hotel rooms badly needed by the locals?
What are you talking about?
Just that there is a certain irony that after complaining at length about too many immigrants your solution is to become one yourself.
It was good against the competition, but it’s one of her good events and she needs to get close to her own PB, which she’s nowhere near.
No, she needs to smash her PB like she did with the shotput yesterday to stand a chance, Thiam is much better at javelin than she is and the overall point delta will be something like 150 to Thiam after the javelin.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
Migration numbers for the rest of this year and next year will be well below those levels for the reasons @MaxPB has spelt out. I'm not making any forecasts for the numbers from 2026 on, but 200k/year is not that ridiculous - it's less than 0.3% per year.
200k/year net works, so long as there’s a million housing units also built per year.
Clearly there needs to be lots of housebuilding... but if you assume an occupancy ratio of 3-1, then at 200k/year the immigration component of housing demand is only about 70k.
Oh indeed, but to get public support for more immigration the cost of housing needs to be seen to be falling.
To go back to my earlier example, most Brits would be over the moon to see 1m Filipina care workers and nurses, and 100k Indian doctors, turn up in the UK, so long as their personal cost of housing was substantially falling.
Support for immigration depends on that immigration not causing shortages.
Of course, in many places - *cough* the Sandpit *cough* - building is made a lot easier by the ability to import lots of people from the Indian subcontinent to actually build houses and apartment blocks.
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
So you are going to be fleeing a police state taking up hotel rooms badly needed by the locals?
What are you talking about?
Just that there is a certain irony that after complaining at length about too many immigrants your solution is to become one yourself.
It was good against the competition, but it’s one of her good events and she needs to get close to her own PB, which she’s nowhere near.
Her PB is 46.14, she threw 44.64.
This is about damage limitation and hopefully she's close enough to make it up in the 800m.
But the best she can do in the 800m is claw back 100 or so points if she doesn't smash her javelin PB then Thiam enters the final event with a 150 point lead unless she completely fucks up the javelins herself.
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Looking at the first couple of dozen of those, most of them are Trumpite throbbers from the USA, and nearly all the rest are in the GBN / Ref UK cesspit.
Those guys are firmly up their own arses smelling only their own bullshit, and the UK Govt need to treat it as a read-only feed.
Dealing with encouraging the UK-based ones to engage at least one brain cell is a different, longer term, question to closing down their drive-by social media trolling.
It was good against the competition, but it’s one of her good events and she needs to get close to her own PB, which she’s nowhere near.
Her PB is 46.14, she threw 44.64.
This is about damage limitation and hopefully she's close enough to make it up in the 800m.
But the best she can do in the 800m is claw back 100 or so points if she doesn't smash her javelin PB then Thiam enters the final event with a 150 point lead unless she completely fucks up the javelins herself.
Probably. 45.49 now, which gets her 16 more points on the first throw.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
The guardian is wrong and they don't know how to do simple maths. The number of people applying for visas currently is down by something like 80% compared to 2022 and the students that arrived in 2022 are all having to find jobs at £39k or go home which means most of them (and their dependents) are going home over the next year because companies aren't going to hire them for that kind of salary. I think 2025 and 2026 will see a period of net emigration. And then it will stabilise in 2027.
If it does happen it means Labour will get the credit for it and, perversely, that will help keep them in office despite them having no real interest in controlling immigration.
It makes Sunak's choices pre-election unfathomable.
The person most to blame in Johnson, because he was PM when the initial post Brexit visa regulations were put in place. But it was then ignored by Truss and Sunak, until it was too late.
Yes, I agree
There is a lot of blame to go around. The OBR will castrate anyone's growth forecasts who says they will being immigration down, leaving no headroom in budgets. That prevented Truss doing anything, and Sunak would never have got his NI cut etc. past them if he'd pledged to get it down to 10s of 000s or anything like.
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
So you are going to be fleeing a police state taking up hotel rooms badly needed by the locals?
What are you talking about?
Just that there is a certain irony that after complaining at length about too many immigrants your solution is to become one yourself.
Nonsense. I’m being authentically British
Invading another country
Glad to see proper British Values, not the bullshit dreamed up by the DfE and the Govester, are finally making a comeback.
It was good against the competition, but it’s one of her good events and she needs to get close to her own PB, which she’s nowhere near.
Her PB is 46.14, she threw 44.64.
This is about damage limitation and hopefully she's close enough to make it up in the 800m.
But the best she can do in the 800m is claw back 100 or so points if she doesn't smash her javelin PB then Thiam enters the final event with a 150 point lead unless she completely fucks up the javelins herself.
45.49. It's good but probably not good enough unless Thiam completely stuffs her javelin.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
The guardian is wrong and they don't know how to do simple maths. The number of people applying for visas currently is down by something like 80% compared to 2022 and the students that arrived in 2022 are all having to find jobs at £39k or go home which means most of them (and their dependents) are going home over the next year because companies aren't going to hire them for that kind of salary. I think 2025 and 2026 will see a period of net emigration. And then it will stabilise in 2027.
If it does happen it means Labour will get the credit for it and, perversely, that will help keep them in office despite them having no real interest in controlling immigration.
It makes Sunak's choices pre-election unfathomable.
The person most to blame in Johnson, because he was PM when the initial post Brexit visa regulations were put in place. But it was then ignored by Truss and Sunak, until it was too late.
Yes, I agree
There is a lot of blame to go around. The OBR will castrate anyone's growth forecasts who says they will being immigration down, leaving no headroom in budgets. That prevented Truss doing anything, and Sunak would never have got his NI cut etc. past them if he'd pledged to get it down to 10s of 000s or anything like.
But it's the dependents issue that has made immigration a problem for the Tories, changing those rules make no difference to GDP because dependents are economically inactive and overall a net drain.
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Looking at the first couple of dozen of those, most of them are Trumpite throbbers from the USA, and nearly all the rest are in the GBN / Ref UK cesspit.
Those guys are firmly up their own arses smelling only their own bullshit, and the UK Govt need to treat it as a read-only feed.
Dealing with encouraging the UK-based ones to engage at least one brain cell is a different, longer term, question to closing down their drive-by social media trolling.
The first couple of dozen are big Trumpite accounts or libertarians
But there are 41,000 of them. Go deeper and it’s people from across the world - ordinary people - expressing shock, dismay or contempt. Simply put, the tweet makes Britain look like a sinister police state. Orwellian. It is absolutely the kind of thing North Korea would tweet, if they had a computer
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
So you are going to be fleeing a police state taking up hotel rooms badly needed by the locals?
What are you talking about?
Just that there is a certain irony that after complaining at length about too many immigrants your solution is to become one yourself.
Nonsense. I’m being authentically British
Invading another country
That made me smile. I suppose it's one of those Yes Minister style irregular verbs 'You are an immigrant, he is a drain on our resources, I am contributing to the local economy '.
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Looking at the first couple of dozen of those, most of them are Trumpite throbbers from the USA, and nearly all the rest are in the GBN / Ref UK cesspit.
Those guys are firmly up their own arses smelling only their own bullshit, and the UK Govt need to treat it as a read-only feed.
Dealing with encouraging the UK-based ones to engage at least one brain cell is a different, longer term, question to closing down their drive-by social media trolling.
The first couple of dozen are big Trumpite accounts or libertarians
But there are 41,000 of them. Go deeper and it’s people from across the world - ordinary people - expressing shock, dismay or contempt. Simply put, the tweet makes Britain look like a sinister police state. Orwellian. It is absolutely the kind of thing North Korea would tweet, if they had a computer
I'm sorry, I'm liberal/libertarian, but that's just bullshit.
The Tweet is saying what the law is. Not a proposed law, or new law, an existing law.
And that trolls on the internet don't like it says more about X than it says about Britain.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
Migration numbers for the rest of this year and next year will be well below those levels for the reasons @MaxPB has spelt out. I'm not making any forecasts for the numbers from 2026 on, but 200k/year is not that ridiculous - it's less than 0.3% per year.
200k/year net works, so long as there’s a million housing units also built per year.
Clearly there needs to be lots of housebuilding... but if you assume an occupancy ratio of 3-1, then at 200k/year the immigration component of housing demand is only about 70k.
Oh indeed, but to get public support for more immigration the cost of housing needs to be seen to be falling.
To go back to my earlier example, most Brits would be over the moon to see 1m Filipina care workers and nurses, and 100k Indian doctors, turn up in the UK, so long as their personal cost of housing was substantially falling.
Support for immigration depends on that immigration not causing shortages.
Of course, in many places - *cough* the Sandpit *cough* - building is made a lot easier by the ability to import lots of people from the Indian subcontinent to actually build houses and apartment blocks.
Oh absolutely. But in the sandpit it’s really easy to deport people, they get sent from the courthouse to the airport, and can argue for their readmission from abroad and at their own expense.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
The guardian is wrong and they don't know how to do simple maths. The number of people applying for visas currently is down by something like 80% compared to 2022 and the students that arrived in 2022 are all having to find jobs at £39k or go home which means most of them (and their dependents) are going home over the next year because companies aren't going to hire them for that kind of salary. I think 2025 and 2026 will see a period of net emigration. And then it will stabilise in 2027.
If it does happen it means Labour will get the credit for it and, perversely, that will help keep them in office despite them having no real interest in controlling immigration.
It makes Sunak's choices pre-election unfathomable.
Yes, this was the point I was making before the election was called. November seemed like a much better time to go because net migration in November will be something like 250k for the year because of visa changes he and Cleverly brought in. What I don't understand is why they didn't make those changes at the end of 2022 when it had already become clear that the care worker visa and the student visa systems were being abused. They waited for far too long, and paid the price. If the Tories had acted in 2022 net migration in November this year would be 150k or so which I think most people wouldn't blink at and I think the government would have had the bandwidth to tackle the boats properly rather than juggle 600k legal migrants and 80k people coming illegally.
If they'd done it properly I think the Tories not only wouldn't be down in the dumps they'd probably have something like 250 seats and Reform would be nowhere. Labour would have the most seats or a very slim majority.
One obvious problem with Sunak was that his administration was consumed by his interests (AI, chess) and conspiracy theories (fifteen-minute cities, multiple recycle bins,etc). A modern and wealthy man, he believed everything his phone told him and prioritised accordingly. He missed the immigration pulse because his attention was elsewhere and by the time he noticed he was too late to introduce workable countermeasures and too incompetent to implement his unworkable one, Rwanda.
This is Russian commentary on the convoy of Russian reinforcements hit in Kursk.
"Just watched a video from the scene. 13 military Urals and KAMAZ covered trucks with infantry. Many dead, some of the vehicles burned to the ground. It looks like the entire column was carrying infantry. They were armed, most likely a platoon per vehicle. 3-4 companies - an entire battalion was destroyed. Judging by the appearance of the column, about half were killed. This is one of the bloodiest and most massive strikes (most likely HIMARS) in the entire war."
Also reports that the Ukrainians are digging in to defend the gains they've made. Looks like they've decided they can cause more damage to the Russian army in a fight in Kursk, than in defending longer-established frontlines in Donetsk.
It does seem as though the Ukrainian advantage in training is used most when the battlefield is more fluid, while a largely static frontline favours the Russian advantage in artillery.
We might see the Ukrainians withdraw after a period of causing mayhem to Russian efforts to bring up artillery and other reinforcements to Kursk.
The Migration Observatory suggesting that the annual run rate for net migration will drop to under 200k by the end of the year. I really wouldn't be surprised if next year we get net emigration because the arrivals from student visas are much lower than the students + dependents leaving at the end of their freebie 2 years and new care worker visa arrivals not getting dependant rights as the previous batch going home on the old scheme which did have them.
So are the care workers who come here, bringing multiple economically inactive dependents, only short term ?
I've posted the numbers before, but care workers are a relatively small share of the total number of work visas issued in a year. And with the removal of dependent rights, it will cut it even further.
Yep: the significant diminution of the right of health and social care visas holders to bring in dependents will have a really significant impact on visa numbers: I think it'll probably knock about 100k off annual immigration numbers on its own.
But it's the student numbers that will be the biggest single swing factor in 2024 and 2025, I reckon. Lots leaving, and far fewer coming: it's likely to be a net negative over the next two years, rather than merely a diminished positive.
The Guardian reckons net immigration will come down to around 350,000 a year by 2030
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
The guardian is wrong and they don't know how to do simple maths. The number of people applying for visas currently is down by something like 80% compared to 2022 and the students that arrived in 2022 are all having to find jobs at £39k or go home which means most of them (and their dependents) are going home over the next year because companies aren't going to hire them for that kind of salary. I think 2025 and 2026 will see a period of net emigration. And then it will stabilise in 2027.
If it does happen it means Labour will get the credit for it and, perversely, that will help keep them in office despite them having no real interest in controlling immigration.
It makes Sunak's choices pre-election unfathomable.
The person most to blame in Johnson, because he was PM when the initial post Brexit visa regulations were put in place. But it was then ignored by Truss and Sunak, until it was too late.
Yes, I agree
There is a lot of blame to go around. The OBR will castrate anyone's growth forecasts who says they will being immigration down, leaving no headroom in budgets. That prevented Truss doing anything, and Sunak would never have got his NI cut etc. past them if he'd pledged to get it down to 10s of 000s or anything like.
But it's the dependents issue that has made immigration a problem for the Tories, changing those rules make no difference to GDP because dependents are economically inactive and overall a net drain.
If you just look at the number of dependent visas for students and care workers, it was something like 300,000 last year. Which is quite astonishing. That's the same - on its own - as the annual net migration numbers to the UK from 2004 to 2016.
I also suspect that - when people bring their wife and kids over - they are much more likely to want to stay long term. So, you probably have fewer people wanting to return home at the end of their period of study or work. Now, whether that is positive or negative is up for debate, but it certainly has an impact on long-term net migration numbers.
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Have you seen the kinds of people doing the replying? They're mostly Qanon obsessed American nutters who don't have a positive view of anyone who's surname isn't Trump.
lol. They have now removed the ability to reply
What a triumph for Gov.UK. Write a tweet to really send a message, then realise the tweet is so madly offensive and unpopular it gets bitterly mocked, worldwide, and now the government is actively trying to hide the tweet. They’ll probably end up deleting it. Brilliant way to send the message. Gold star for PR
Farcical morons
Its not offensive to write what the law is.
Getting mocked by trolls online is irrelevant.
David Cameron was right when he said that Twitter isn't Britain. Foreign trolls on Twitter are even less Britain.
But the UKG govt clearly does care about Twitter, hence the hysterical calls to ban it or restrict it
At this point, who hasn’t actively considered emigration?
You're the first one to bang on about how everything is going to change because of AI and tech. Do you think that nothing invented after 1997 should be regulated? If someone was handing out photocopied flyers on the high street inciting violence against mosques then they'd be hauled before a judge in 10 minutes. Why should it be any different online where thousands more are going to see it?
Enjoy your new Labour police state, your ugly cities and your terrible weather, your degraded culture and your helpless decline. I shall be elsewhere
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
So you are going to be fleeing a police state taking up hotel rooms badly needed by the locals?
What are you talking about?
Tommy Robinson.
Katie Price ?
I can't believe they arrested her. I thought she was untouchable. I had this image of her doing worse and worse plastic surgery until something exploded.
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Have you seen the kinds of people doing the replying? They're mostly Qanon obsessed American nutters who don't have a positive view of anyone who's surname isn't Trump.
lol. They have now removed the ability to reply
What a triumph for Gov.UK. Write a tweet to really send a message, then realise the tweet is so madly offensive and unpopular it gets bitterly mocked, worldwide, and now the government is actively trying to hide the tweet. They’ll probably end up deleting it. Brilliant way to send the message. Gold star for PR
Farcical morons
Its not offensive to write what the law is.
Getting mocked by trolls online is irrelevant.
David Cameron was right when he said that Twitter isn't Britain. Foreign trolls on Twitter are even less Britain.
But the UKG govt clearly does care about Twitter, hence the hysterical calls to ban it or restrict it
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Have you seen the kinds of people doing the replying? They're mostly Qanon obsessed American nutters who don't have a positive view of anyone who's surname isn't Trump.
lol. They have now removed the ability to reply
What a triumph for Gov.UK. Write a tweet to really send a message, then realise the tweet is so madly offensive and unpopular it gets bitterly mocked, worldwide, and now the government is actively trying to hide the tweet. They’ll probably end up deleting it. Brilliant way to send the message. Gold star for PR
Farcical morons
Its not offensive to write what the law is.
Getting mocked by trolls online is irrelevant.
David Cameron was right when he said that Twitter isn't Britain. Foreign trolls on Twitter are even less Britain.
But the UKG govt clearly does care about Twitter, hence the hysterical calls to ban it or restrict it
Comments
You keep banging on about inconsistent policing but here is an example of the opposite. You just don't like it because it means a drunken tirade on PB might land you in as much trouble as that Labour councillor.
Like this is some major achievement. 350,000 is still an insane and almost unprecedented number, it’s just that the Tories managed to triple it “by accident”
It still means rapid transformation. It still means incredible strains on society. On top of what we already have. Then add in the boat people…
It’s not good
If you boil things you lose a lot of the flavour and I know many people boil frozen peas, so that's a lot of the flavour gone - and if you're cooking from frozen then you have to do so for longer which blanches and gets rid of the flavour even longer.
Steamed or stir fry etc is much better than boiling and easier to do with fresh, but I've not tried defrosting frozen and then doing the same. If you did, I imagine there'd be quite similar.
I'm currently defrosting some steaks (which I bought fresh but then froze) for lunch and dinner today. So long as food is defrosted properly, I personally can't tell a difference between formerly-frozen and not. Its the lack of defrosting I think is the bigger problem.
(Not me who flagged you btw - maybe the CPS have a bot on here?)
It would also free up whatever parking was used by customers of the previous business, whcih may well have been greater.
I have a few friends who work for the CPS…
Sadly they have to lurk.
That's kind of the point, people in the labour market have many possible employers (customers) to go to and if being offered minimum wage plus tips to wait on tables, or minimum wage to wipe bums, not many people are going to choose to wipe bums.
Even within the sector each employer is separate, not a monopsony.
Yes at the other end of the market Councils pay a lot of the funding, but they're legally obliged to.
The home is obliged to have staff - if they don't, the CQC will safeguard them.
The Council is obliged to pay for funding.
Neither the Council nor families will like paying the market rate for staff. Tough.
Check your carbon monoxide detector and detox from twitter.
https://x.com/govuk/status/1821502879590494358?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
41,000 replies, all bitterly mocking the UK Government. This is hugely damaging to our international image. They are now trying to stop people replying
Come on, be reasonable.
It makes Sunak's choices pre-election unfathomable.
“Freedom of expression constitutes one of the essential foundations of a [“democratic society”], one of the basic conditions for its progress and for the development of every man. Subject to paragraph 2 of Article 10 …it is applicable not only to “information” or “ideas” that are favourably received or regarded as inoffensive or as a matter of indifference, but also to those that offend, shock or disturb the State or any sector of the population. Such are the demands of that pluralism, tolerance and broadmindedness without which there is no “democratic society”.
Some foreign court said that. And against the U.K. too. Bastards!
You still haven’t told us why you’re opposed to stopping the inciting racial hatred online?
For the moment, that is: having a shower and a coffee
What we want is for cases to be processed efficiently and quickly, and without delay.
And that probably means spending more money, rather than less. What we need to have is something equivalent to the public defenders office in the US, so there's no need to go out to outside firms of lawyers.
People cook peas too long.
Frozen peas need 2 mins cooking, no salt in water, then cooling in iced water.
Astonishingly so.
That's a strong start to the day.
I am talking Mary Poppins you pervs.
This kind of violent threat has driven a number of active travel advocates off social media (including me to an extent, after I was warned by the police that someone had my address). It stifles the kind of free speech you wish to defend.
He's cut benefits people haven't paid to get. That should be something you should welcome.
And he's been faced with rioting and he's let the Police and Courts do their job, same as Cameron. That should be something you should welcome.
So far he's quite Cameroon. Just without letting pensioners evade their fair share of austerity.
I also have a chap who parks his tractor trailer in a field gate on Saturday morningsabout 4 miles away, and if I want fresh stuff I cycle there and get them. Total word of mouth marketing. Normally I don't eat enough to justify a unique trip.
I like growing soft fruit, because the retail cost is high. But I sometimes buy berries in bulk online (2kg bags) for the freezer.
I have most of the above in my garden, plus strawberries and raspberries and blueberries when the latter have grown. I'd suggest redcurrants as worth their weight. But at present my garden has reverted to a jungle which has swallowed everything. I've been ill long-term and have never been good at the "half an hour a day in the garden" thing.
My tip for the best fruit in the world would be Greengages, which are amazing. I'm dreaming about them as vertical cordons in front of the posts when my S-facing veranda arrives. Can be in containers.
What a triumph for Gov.UK. Write a tweet to really send a message, then realise the tweet is so madly offensive and unpopular it gets bitterly mocked, worldwide, and now the government is actively trying to hide the tweet. They’ll probably end up deleting it. Brilliant way to send the message. Gold star for PR
Farcical morons
If they'd done it properly I think the Tories not only wouldn't be down in the dumps they'd probably have something like 250 seats and Reform would be nowhere. Labour would have the most seats or a very slim majority.
To go back to my earlier example, most Brits would be over the moon to see 1m Filipina care workers and nurses, and 100k Indian doctors, turn up in the UK, so long as their personal cost of housing was substantially falling.
Support for immigration depends on that immigration not causing shortages.
It’s the housing theory of everything. https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-everything/
Getting mocked by trolls online is irrelevant.
David Cameron was right when he said that Twitter isn't Britain. Foreign trolls on Twitter are even less Britain.
I have looked. Primarily for cider making.
Agree about Greengages, they are fantastic.
Should we all pile on Keely for SPOTY?
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/08/labour-needs-x-to-get-its-message-out-however-much-it-may-wish-it-didnt
Woman who allegedly first started the rumour the killer was an asylum seeker that led to the riots lives in a £1.5M house and is a director of a clothing company. Not so white working class.
These weren't housing riots, they were racist riots.
Heartening that so many Yanks take an interest in the freedom of another country. Strangely these lads don't seem so concerned about Putin's Russia.
The cost and provision of social care remains the elephant in the room though the fundamental is really about how we deal with people when they get old. In many other societies, the family takes care of elderly relatives and no doubt that happens a lot here and it should be, I think, the default position that just as your parents took care of you when you couldn't take care of yourself, you should take care of them when they can't manage.
That's as much a cultural and societal issue as it is an economic and legal one though there's plenty that could be done to move it along - incentives for building extensions (the dreaded "granny flat"), support for those who care whole or part time for elderly relatives including tax breaks for employers to employ carers.
Yes. there will be instances when the level of care required is beyond the capacity of any family (dementia for example but other mental and physical issues) and at that point the care sector needs to step in to provide the specialist care in appropriate locations to assist those who cannot be supported at home or in the family.
I see issues with "retirement communities" but if properly regulated and well resourced, they can be invaluable for those wishing to downsize in current years and move to some form of sheltered or supported living.
You just don't fob off the elderly with money, with the "triple lock" or whatever, it's much more than that. It's about giving older people a purpose, the opportunity to contribute to be valued not to be shut away in a corner with a lot of cash. That requires a societal change - we talk a lot abour worklife balance but that applies to those who have retired as well and may want to do a little just to be and to feel useful.
Finally, working with "the old" shouldn't be stigmatised or downgraded - "care" should be elevated to a serious profession (it's as important as being a lawyer or solicitor, arguably more so). Working in the residential care sector needs to be adequately rewarded and recognised but, at the same time, those who run private residential care homes need strong and robust regulation - to be honest, I'd rather take the profit out of care but that's unlikely.
"The Labour MP for Rochester and Strood has apologised after offensive social media posts resurfaced.
In a statement on Thursday, Lauren Edwards said: "I have recently been made aware of a small number of tweets that I posted on twitter from over a decade ago, which I now deeply regret."
One of the since-deleted tweets posted to X, external, formerly Twitter, in July 2009, read: I want these [expletive] Estonian retards out of my flat now!""
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg5lyrg86zo
Yes they're racist riots but name one place in the country with housing as cheap as chips?
House price to earning ratios are broken in the entire country. They are too high everywhere in England and Wales.
Houses are too expensive everywhere the riots happened.
This is about damage limitation and hopefully she's close enough to make it up in the 800m.
Invading another country
Those guys are firmly up their own arses smelling only their own bullshit, and the UK Govt need to treat it as a read-only feed.
Dealing with encouraging the UK-based ones to engage at least one brain cell is a different, longer term, question to closing down their drive-by social media trolling.
But there are 41,000 of them. Go deeper and it’s people from across the world - ordinary people
- expressing shock, dismay or contempt. Simply put, the tweet makes Britain look like a sinister police state. Orwellian. It is absolutely the kind of thing North Korea would tweet, if they had a computer
EDIT: That's probably too much for KJT to overcome.
The Tweet is saying what the law is. Not a proposed law, or new law, an existing law.
And that trolls on the internet don't like it says more about X than it says about Britain.
"Just watched a video from the scene. 13 military Urals and KAMAZ covered trucks with infantry. Many dead, some of the vehicles burned to the ground. It looks like the entire column was carrying infantry. They were armed, most likely a platoon per vehicle. 3-4 companies - an entire battalion was destroyed. Judging by the appearance of the column, about half were killed. This is one of the bloodiest and most massive strikes (most likely HIMARS) in the entire war."
Also reports that the Ukrainians are digging in to defend the gains they've made. Looks like they've decided they can cause more damage to the Russian army in a fight in Kursk, than in defending longer-established frontlines in Donetsk.
It does seem as though the Ukrainian advantage in training is used most when the battlefield is more fluid, while a largely static frontline favours the Russian advantage in artillery.
We might see the Ukrainians withdraw after a period of causing mayhem to Russian efforts to bring up artillery and other reinforcements to Kursk.
I also suspect that - when people bring their wife and kids over - they are much more likely to want to stay long term. So, you probably have fewer people wanting to return home at the end of their period of study or work. Now, whether that is positive or negative is up for debate, but it certainly has an impact on long-term net migration numbers.
Not in depth, but useful.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/how-to-spot-fake-accounts-misinformation-amid-uk-riots/
But the voters want lower net immigration. If a government tweet can get people who want to incite violence to self-deport that sounds like a win?
Initially allowing replies would appear to be the only error in the messaging, despite the melodramatic swooning