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A week is a long time in politics – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    It's a shame Braverman withdrew. She was broadly right that Sunak and the centrists have been a massive pile of shit, but you must also make people feel good about being Tories again. That positivity was absent from her speeches and interventions since the result. She has seemed to want just to demand people acknowledge that she was right. But has not developed a USP as to how she can get the Tories elected again.

    I'm not too wowed by Kemi's debut piece. In the Times (puke) and not terribly coherent - it felt a bit mealy mouthed as to why they lost. Not really willing to own the failures of her own Government.

    Braverman is also rather like Truss, having held senior ministerial office without a single achievement to her name.

    I do wonder, especially given the demographics of the electorate, whether the fact that their last female leader (arguably last two) was a dud and their last (and only) ethnic minority leader was a dud, might have them looking for a man this time, and possibly a white one? It’s already been said on ConHome.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    It's a shame Braverman withdrew. She was broadly right that Sunak and the centrists have been a massive pile of shit, but you must also make people feel good about being Tories again. That positivity was absent from her speeches and interventions since the result. She has seemed to want just to demand people acknowledge that she was right. But has not developed a USP as to how she can get the Tories elected again.

    I'm not too wowed by Kemi's debut piece. In the Times (puke) and not terribly coherent - it felt a bit mealy mouthed as to why they lost. Not really willing to own the failures of her own Government.

    One word failure

    Truss

    She was the one who handed Labour the biggest gift ever in politics and they will live on it for years

    Johnson, Truss, Braverman are all yesterday's stories for the conservative party if they ever want to see office again
    Don't think so. I was furious with my (con) MP for not opposing Johnson but he saw more clearly than I did that all possible successors were duds. Sunak included.
    Johnson deliberately surrounded himself with numpties, so that he would shine, and none of them would get the job. And turned out wrong on both counts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Statement by the Iranian Government.

    "The insulting representation of Jesus Christ in Paris yesterday was completely offensive and crossed all red lines.

    France, a country with a major history of Christianity, must be ashamed of itself, and I implore our Christian people all over the world to speak out against this act. We resolutely condemn this."

    If the Mullahs are upset France must have done something right.

    Je Suis Paris.
    I think rather (since many folk will at least mildly disapprove of the parody), it’s that we should avoid any move in the direction of reacting as Iran does.

    The reaction of some on the right is a step in that direction.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    edited July 29
    IanB2 said:

    It's a shame Braverman withdrew. She was broadly right that Sunak and the centrists have been a massive pile of shit, but you must also make people feel good about being Tories again. That positivity was absent from her speeches and interventions since the result. She has seemed to want just to demand people acknowledge that she was right. But has not developed a USP as to how she can get the Tories elected again.

    I'm not too wowed by Kemi's debut piece. In the Times (puke) and not terribly coherent - it felt a bit mealy mouthed as to why they lost. Not really willing to own the failures of her own Government.

    Braverman is also rather like Truss, having held senior ministerial office without a single achievement to her name.

    I do wonder, especially given the demographics of the electorate, whether the fact that their last female leader (arguably last two) was a dud and their last (and only) ethnic minority leader was a dud, might have them looking for a man this time, and possibly a white one? It’s already been said on ConHome.
    1. Truss had achieved a number of trade deals as trade sec. You can argue they would have happened anyway, or weren't good deals, but you can't argue she did not have a single achievement.
    2. Braverman did everything she possibly could to secure reduced immigration, legal and illegal, holding various leaders' feet to the fire to try to get it. She can make a convincing case there, but like I said, 'I was right' is not a winning leadership pitch.

    I don’t think the Tory Party thinks of leaders in terms of their colour. And they're right not to. Patel isn't Sunak, despite the commonalities in background.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Moment huge brawl erupts at Dovedale stepping stones beauty spot as people hurl large sticks at each other"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13681809/Moment-huge-brawl-erupts-Dovedale-stepping-stones-beauty-spot.html

    Why wasn't I told about this PB meet up in the Peak District?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Nigelb said:

    Statement by the Iranian Government.

    "The insulting representation of Jesus Christ in Paris yesterday was completely offensive and crossed all red lines.

    France, a country with a major history of Christianity, must be ashamed of itself, and I implore our Christian people all over the world to speak out against this act. We resolutely condemn this."

    If the Mullahs are upset France must have done something right.

    Je Suis Paris.
    I think rather (since many folk will at least mildly disapprove of the parody), it’s that we should avoid any move in the direction of reacting as Iran does.

    The reaction of some on the right is a step in that direction.
    I saw that section live, and saw zero connection with the Last Supper. Can someone explain the link?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    Nigelb said:

    Statement by the Iranian Government.

    "The insulting representation of Jesus Christ in Paris yesterday was completely offensive and crossed all red lines.

    France, a country with a major history of Christianity, must be ashamed of itself, and I implore our Christian people all over the world to speak out against this act. We resolutely condemn this."

    If the Mullahs are upset France must have done something right.

    Je Suis Paris.
    I think rather (since many folk will at least mildly disapprove of the parody), it’s that we should avoid any move in the direction of reacting as Iran does.

    The reaction of some on the right is a step in that direction.
    I saw that section live, and saw zero connection with the Last Supper. Can someone explain the link?
    This is the still that has upset people

    https://www.instagram.com/p/C97WzsCJInz

    When I first saw it (without the comparator) I definitely thought of the last supper motif

    It’s not hugely offensive in my view, but it is tired and has been done so many times. But the issue is more equality of treatment - the perception is that it is fine to mock Christians but not others
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 29
    I see Turkey is thretening to invade Israel unless they start behaving themselves.

    That would sorely test Article 5 if Benjamin nukes them in return.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    "Venezuela's regime has announced that socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro is the "WINNER" of the election despite rampant and verifiable reports of FRAUD.

    • Maduro: 51.2%
    • González: 44.2%
    "

    https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1817784693653192847
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    Nigelb said:

    Statement by the Iranian Government.

    "The insulting representation of Jesus Christ in Paris yesterday was completely offensive and crossed all red lines.

    France, a country with a major history of Christianity, must be ashamed of itself, and I implore our Christian people all over the world to speak out against this act. We resolutely condemn this."

    If the Mullahs are upset France must have done something right.

    Je Suis Paris.
    I think rather (since many folk will at least mildly disapprove of the parody), it’s that we should avoid any move in the direction of reacting as Iran does.

    The reaction of some on the right is a step in that direction.
    I saw that section live, and saw zero connection with the Last Supper. Can someone explain the link?
    This is the still that has upset people

    https://www.instagram.com/p/C97WzsCJInz

    When I first saw it (without the comparator) I definitely thought of the last supper motif

    It’s not hugely offensive in my view, but it is tired and has been done so many times. But the issue is more equality of treatment - the perception is that it is fine to mock Christians but not others
    And given the location, that criticism is fairer than normal. Arguably, there was a case for showing the Charlie Hebdo cartoons - I wouldn’t, but it would have been understandable - but having a pop at Christianity seemed completely unnecessary.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Who will still be leading the Cons come 2028 GE should they win this summer?

    My prediction list:

    James Cleverly - Yes.
    Priti Patel - Probably.
    Robert Jenrick - Nope.
    Tom Tugendhat - Nope.
    Kemi Badenoch - Nope.
    Mel Stride - Nope.

    The fastest crash and burns will be Kemi (I give it 18 months) and Jenrick (might get 2 years).


    Crashing and burning is a lesser hazard for opposition politicians because very little hangs by their utterances. It was the 'markets' (i.e. the sum total of other people's money, freely invested) that did for Truss. LoE's can recycle contradictory, monosyllabic solutions to complex problems without a hint of resistance so long as they remain powerless. 'How many divisions has the Pope?' springs to mind.
    For a LotO to not make it to a General Election is pretty spectacular; was IDS the first example?
    No. John Smith didn’t, but we’ll excuse him under the circumstances.

    Before that you had George Lansbury (1931-1935) William Harcourt (1895-98) and groping back further into the past a case could be made for the Marquis of Hartington (1875-80) and Sir Stafford Nothcote (1881-85).

    You also had a period from 1918 to 1923 when Labour elected a new leader every year, so the likes of Clynes and Adamson would count.

    Before that you had such luminaries as the Marquis of Granby (1847) Lord George Bentinck (1846-7) and before that it was sometimes quite difficult to decide who the ‘Leader of the Opposition’ was.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    I see Turkey is thretening to invade Israel unless they start behaving themselves.

    That would sorely test Article 5 if Benjamin nukes them in return.

    No it wouldn’t. It doesn’t apply if you attack others.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    "Venezuela's regime has announced that socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro is the "WINNER" of the election despite rampant and verifiable reports of FRAUD.

    • Maduro: 51.2%
    • González: 44.2%
    "

    https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1817784693653192847

    Yeah, right.

    Maduro is a loathsome piece of work as well as a useless pillock.

    Nobody will have voted for him.

    There’s more blatant fraud there than in Donald Trump’s accounts.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    ydoethur said:

    "Venezuela's regime has announced that socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro is the "WINNER" of the election despite rampant and verifiable reports of FRAUD.

    • Maduro: 51.2%
    • González: 44.2%
    "

    https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1817784693653192847

    Yeah, right.

    Maduro is a loathsome piece of work as well as a useless pillock.

    Nobody will have voted for him.

    There’s more blatant fraud there than in Donald Trump’s accounts.
    There’s always a silver lining…

    He’s demonstrated the case against electronic voting very nicely
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    Nigelb said:

    Statement by the Iranian Government.

    "The insulting representation of Jesus Christ in Paris yesterday was completely offensive and crossed all red lines.

    France, a country with a major history of Christianity, must be ashamed of itself, and I implore our Christian people all over the world to speak out against this act. We resolutely condemn this."

    If the Mullahs are upset France must have done something right.

    Je Suis Paris.
    I think rather (since many folk will at least mildly disapprove of the parody), it’s that we should avoid any move in the direction of reacting as Iran does.

    The reaction of some on the right is a step in that direction.
    I saw that section live, and saw zero connection with the Last Supper. Can someone explain the link?
    This is the still that has upset people

    https://www.instagram.com/p/C97WzsCJInz

    When I first saw it (without the comparator) I definitely thought of the last supper motif

    It’s not hugely offensive in my view, but it is tired and has been done so many times. But the issue is more equality of treatment - the perception is that it is fine to mock Christians but not others
    The timing of the protests is interesting. It probably involves, in some order, Russian trolls, American alt-right, and on PB, Leon. I did ask Leon why he'd not protested at the time. You could ask the same of Iran, since their condemnation also seems to follow rather than lead the crowd.

    @bondegezou added: It’s also just a really bad pun in French: Scène de la Cène sur la Seine. “La Cène” being the last supper.
  • Meanwhile, #Leon is trending on Twitter.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    Meanwhile, #Leon is trending on Twitter.

    As in justice for?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    Nigelb said:

    Statement by the Iranian Government.

    "The insulting representation of Jesus Christ in Paris yesterday was completely offensive and crossed all red lines.

    France, a country with a major history of Christianity, must be ashamed of itself, and I implore our Christian people all over the world to speak out against this act. We resolutely condemn this."

    If the Mullahs are upset France must have done something right.

    Je Suis Paris.
    I think rather (since many folk will at least mildly disapprove of the parody), it’s that we should avoid any move in the direction of reacting as Iran does.

    The reaction of some on the right is a step in that direction.
    I saw that section live, and saw zero connection with the Last Supper. Can someone explain the link?
    This is the still that has upset people

    https://www.instagram.com/p/C97WzsCJInz

    When I first saw it (without the comparator) I definitely thought of the last supper motif

    It’s not hugely offensive in my view, but it is tired and has been done so many times. But the issue is more equality of treatment - the perception is that it is fine to mock Christians but not others
    The timing of the protests is interesting. It probably involves, in some order, Russian trolls, American alt-right, and on PB, Leon. I did ask Leon why he'd not protested at the time. You could ask the same of Iran, since their condemnation also seems to follow rather than lead the crowd.

    @bondegezou added: It’s also just a really bad pun in French: Scène de la Cène sur la Seine. “La Cène” being
    the last supper.
    I don’t disagree

    I’m a Christian and I’m more irritated with such a hackneyed and unfunny parody being thought worthy of inclusion.

    But generally the enemies of the west on social media will jump on anything they can use to stir up discord and division
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    eek said:

    Anyone want an AI Calculator (it's a calculator that passes the questions to an LLM model for the answer).

    It's as hilariously bad as you would fear it to be.

    https://calcgpt.io/

    In fact the only answer it hasn't provided for 6 x 9 is the answer 42...

    Well 42 is the answer to life, the Universe, and everything.

    Meanwhile, 6 x 9 = 54.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Anyone want an AI Calculator (it's a calculator that passes the questions to an LLM model for the answer).

    It's as hilariously bad as you would fear it to be.

    https://calcgpt.io/

    In fact the only answer it hasn't provided for 6 x 9 is the answer 42...

    Well 42 is the answer to life, the Universe, and everything.

    Meanwhile, 6 x 9 = 54.
    There was a Sixty Symbols video showing ChatGPT taking A-level physics, which was linked here at the time. Interestingly on one question it got the right answer but the wrong physics reasoning, and on another it got the physics right but stuffed up the calculation.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: McLaren now 42 points off Red Bull. 10 races left.

    Last three races they've narrowed the gap by 9, 27, and 9 points.

    Far from certain, but fairly content with the 4 on them to take that title. And glad I hedged my Norris 29 bet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301

    NEW THREAD

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696

    Nigelb said:

    Statement by the Iranian Government.

    "The insulting representation of Jesus Christ in Paris yesterday was completely offensive and crossed all red lines.

    France, a country with a major history of Christianity, must be ashamed of itself, and I implore our Christian people all over the world to speak out against this act. We resolutely condemn this."

    If the Mullahs are upset France must have done something right.

    Je Suis Paris.
    I think rather (since many folk will at least mildly disapprove of the parody), it’s that we should avoid any move in the direction of reacting as Iran does.

    The reaction of some on the right is a step in that direction.
    I saw that section live, and saw zero connection with the Last Supper. Can someone explain the link?
    This is the still that has upset people

    https://www.instagram.com/p/C97WzsCJInz

    When I first saw it (without the comparator) I definitely thought of the last supper motif

    It’s not hugely offensive in my view, but it is tired and has been done so many times. But the issue is more equality of treatment - the perception is that it is fine to mock Christians but not others
    The timing of the protests is interesting. It probably involves, in some order, Russian trolls, American alt-right, and on PB, Leon. I did ask Leon why he'd not protested at the time. You could ask the same of Iran, since their condemnation also seems to follow rather than lead the crowd.

    @bondegezou added: It’s also just a really bad pun in French: Scène de la Cène sur la Seine. “La Cène” being the last supper.
    I don’t disagree

    I’m a Christian and I’m more irritated with such a hackneyed and unfunny parody being thought worthy of inclusion.

    But generally the enemies of the west on social media will jump on anything they can use to stir up discord and division
    Indeed. The enemies of the West would’ve always found something. I’m surprised they didn’t go with the ceremony’s support for threesomes (something popular on PB, but frowned upon in some conservative circles) or how two of the statues that rose out of the river were for women involved in legalising abortion.

    What they should’ve been angry about is the terrible direction and editing of the whole thing!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,923
    eek said:

    Anyone want an AI Calculator (it's a calculator that passes the questions to an LLM model for the answer).

    It's as hilariously bad as you would fear it to be.

    https://calcgpt.io/

    In fact the only answer it hasn't provided for 6 x 9 is the answer 42...

    Ummm...

    That's because the default is to have P (i.e. likelihood of not picking the most common answer) at 1.

    If you turn it down to 0, then it works pretty well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Statement by the Iranian Government.

    "The insulting representation of Jesus Christ in Paris yesterday was completely offensive and crossed all red lines.

    France, a country with a major history of Christianity, must be ashamed of itself, and I implore our Christian people all over the world to speak out against this act. We resolutely condemn this."

    If the Mullahs are upset France must have done something right.

    Je Suis Paris.
    I think rather (since many folk will at least mildly disapprove of the parody), it’s that we should avoid any move in the direction of reacting as Iran does.

    The reaction of some on the right is a step in that direction.
    I saw that section live, and saw zero connection with the Last Supper. Can someone explain the link?
    This is the still that has upset people

    https://www.instagram.com/p/C97WzsCJInz

    When I first saw it (without the comparator) I definitely thought of the last supper motif

    It’s not hugely offensive in my view, but it is tired and has been done so many times. But the issue is more equality of treatment - the perception is that it is fine to mock Christians but not others
    And given the location, that criticism is fairer than normal. Arguably, there was a case for showing the Charlie Hebdo cartoons - I wouldn’t, but it would have been understandable - but having a pop at Christianity seemed completely unnecessary.
    You're assuming it was intended as a mockery of Christianity, or 'having a pop'.
    It was an appropriation of Leonardo's image - which as noted, has been done a thousand times before - without anyone assuming mockery.

    Were Warhol's prints a mockery ?

    Islam is, in the views of many of us, currently (though not always the case historically) over sensitive to the depiction of its prophet.

    Christianity doesn't have the Islamic prescription on iconography - unless you're of the Cromwell tendency. And western society professes itself happy to accommodate satire on religion.
    Is that something you want to change ?

    If France should be apologising for anything, it's for putting on a not very good opening ceremony. But that's hardly something to be outraged over.
This discussion has been closed.