We need to talk about Trump’s age and faculties – politicalbetting.com

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We need to talk about Trump’s age and faculties – politicalbetting.com

Facts: Harris was polling better than Biden in recent NYT polls in swing states. Fact: The vast majority of Democrats would be satisfied with her as the nominee. Definitely risky making the substitution, but Biden was leading Trump 0% of the time this year. pic.twitter.com/rRJDIjMWct

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TheScreamingEagles

Nope, it wasn't a dream, Max Verstappen moaning like a whore yesterday was better than sex Biden really has withdrawn from the White House race.

Alanbrooke

This is going to turn in to another lawyer fest ahead of the vote

ydoethur

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

This is going to turn in to another lawyer fest ahead of the vote

Lawyers are the best.

They win elections.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/07/04/history-suggests-lawyer-starmer-was-always-going-to-win-this-election/

Foxy

Alanbrooke said:

This is going to turn in to another lawyer fest ahead of the vote

Of course it is, it's America. You can't make a cup of coffee without lawyers involved.

Leon

Trump was going to thrash Biden

I’d have Harris as slight favourite to beat Trump

eek

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Buttigieg was the lead person prepping Harris for the vice president debate - there is zero evidence that Harris does not like him

Alanbrooke

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Harris needs to sex up her profile. I think she will pick Lizzo as her VP.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Harris needs to sex up her profile. I think she will pick Lizzo as her VP.

I think you'll like this.

https://x.com/schlagteslinks/status/1815133956578443284

IanB2

Harris as nominee now into 1.15. Barring some truly freak event, given the money and the backing and the obvious desire from the Dems to unify and start fighting Trump asap, that looks like free money?

Edit/ Now 1.14, £13,000 left

Edit/ £7,000 left

Edit/ All gone, now £11,000 at 1.13

Nigelb

eek said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Buttigieg was the lead person prepping Harris for the vice president debate - there is zero evidence that Harris does not like him

Thoughts and prayers for HYUFD this morning.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

This is going to turn in to another lawyer fest ahead of the vote

Lawyers are the best.

They win elections.

https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/07/04/history-suggests-lawyer-starmer-was-always-going-to-win-this-election/

I tend to think Dick the Butcher called it right.

Mexicanpete

Leon said:

Trump was going to thrash Biden

Surely not.

More likely have him shot by firing squad I would have thought.

ydoethur

eek said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Buttigieg was the lead person prepping Harris for the vice president debate - there is zero evidence that Harris does not like him

One thing I did notice (thinking of Hyufd rather than Harris specifically) is that in the discussion of the polls it was noted Harris' unfavourables are comparable to Trump's and her approval ratings are lower.

Yes, that's true. But she also has two advantages (1) Trump's unfavourables are at over 50% which means he can't realistically challenge to win the popular vote and (2) she has a far greater number of undecideds (13% against 4% if memory serves). With Trump, voters know what they're getting and don't like it. Harris has been sufficiently low profile for them to be uncertain about her.

If she can convert the undecideds to either 'unfavourables' or 'not convinced but she's better than the Small Dic Tator' she will win.

How she goes about trying to do that will be interesting to watch. Biden did well last time with his 'I've campaigned as a proud Democrat but I will be a President for all Americans.' It remains to be seen if she will attempt something similar.

Nigelb

Leon said:

Trump was going to thrash Biden

I’d have Harris as slight favourite to beat Trump

What, a prediction about which you're not 100% certain ?

I agree, btw.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Harris needs to sex up her profile. I think she will pick Lizzo as her VP.

I think you'll like this.

https://x.com/schlagteslinks/status/1815133956578443284

Despicable cultural appropriation. Kamala Harris should never be in Riverdance.

IanB2

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

Trump was going to thrash Biden

I’d have Harris as slight favourite to beat Trump

What, a prediction about which you're not 100% certain ?

I agree, btw.

He needs time to make the two definite predictions, one in each direction, before November.

JosiasJessop

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nope, it wasn't a dream, Max Verstappen moaning like a whore yesterday was better than sex Biden really has withdrawn from the White House race.

I haven't watched the highlights yet, but I've seen clips of Verstappen's moaning, ad of his engineer's put-down on him.

The thing is, I don't think Verstappen will take that well. It'll be interesting to see how the dynamic continues in future, and how the team will react. Badly, I think.

(There's also the complexity of Checo probably being replaced as well. With the ongoing Horny Horner situation and Newey leaving, Red Bull have a lot of problems of their own making.)

SouthamObserver

Two things that Harris can do nothing about but which will cost her millions of votes: she's a woman and she is not white. Even against a convicted felon and serial sex pest who is clearly losing his marbles that puts her at a significant disadvantage.

ydoethur

Incidentally am I right in thinking that Biden is the first elected President to contest only one Presidential election (i.e. serve a full term but not seek a second) since Rutherford B. Hayes (1876-80)?

TheScreamingEagles

JosiasJessop said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nope, it wasn't a dream, Max Verstappen moaning like a whore yesterday was better than sex Biden really has withdrawn from the White House race.

I haven't watched the highlights yet, but I've seen clips of Verstappen's moaning, ad of his engineer's put-down on him.

The thing is, I don't think Verstappen will take that well. It'll be interesting to see how the dynamic continues in future, and how the team will react. Badly, I think.

(There's also the complexity of Checo probably being replaced as well. With the ongoing Horny Horner situation and Newey leaving, Red Bull have a lot of problems of their own making.)

It gets better.

This fuelled speculation that Verstappen could join Mercedes and blindsided Horner, who was not aware of it. It is understood that Marko has now signed a contract to guarantee he will remain with Red Bull until the end of 2026.

It was also initially unclear where Red Bull would stand with Verstappen’s contract if the 81-year-old was too unwell to continue working, but they have also now ensured that loophole is closed.

https://www.thetimes.com/sport/formula-one/article/max-verstappen-red-bull-hungarian-grand-prix-oscar-piastri-lewis-hamilton-result-z0d53pxjw

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

eek said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Buttigieg was the lead person prepping Harris for the vice president debate - there is zero evidence that Harris does not like him

One thing I did notice (thinking of Hyufd rather than Harris specifically) is that in the discussion of the polls it was noted Harris' unfavourables are comparable to Trump's and her approval ratings are lower.

Yes, that's true. But she also has two advantages (1) Trump's unfavourables are at over 50% which means he can't realistically challenge to win the popular vote and (2) she has a far greater number of undecideds (13% against 4% if memory serves). With Trump, voters know what they're getting and don't like it. Harris has been sufficiently low profile for them to be uncertain about her.

If she can convert the undecideds to either 'unfavourables' or 'not convinced but she's better than the Small Dic Tator' she will win.

How she goes about trying to do that will be interesting to watch. Biden did well last time with his 'I've campaigned as a proud Democrat but I will be a President for all Americans.' It remains to be seen if she will attempt something similar.

Most interesting will be to see if she can up her game, after three and a half years as a semi-visible VP.
Historically she's been a very patchy public performer. She can be very good, but also pretty mediocre.

Cookie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nope, it wasn't a dream, Max Verstappen moaning like a whore yesterday was better than sex Biden really has withdrawn from the White House race.

Yes, AND BlancheLivermore gave us a new recipe for tuna mayonnaise sandwiches. Yesterday truly was remarkable.

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

Incidentally am I right in thinking that Biden is the first elected President to contest only one Presidential election (i.e. serve a full term but not seek a second) since Rutherford B. Hayes (1876-80)?

LBJ?

Kinda.

Scott_xP

...

Foxy

IanB2 said:

Harris as nominee now into 1.15. Barring some truly freak event, given the money and the backing and the obvious desire from the Dems to unify and start fighting Trump asap, that looks like free money?

Edit/ Now 1.14, £13,000 left

Edit/ £7,000 left

Edit/ All gone, now £11,000 at 1.13

Surely all the potential rivals have endorsed her now?

It's rare to have such unity, but does look as if the Dems are revved up to see her beat Trump.

RochdalePioneers

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Incidentally am I right in thinking that Biden is the first elected President to contest only one Presidential election (i.e. serve a full term but not seek a second) since Rutherford B. Hayes (1876-80)?

LBJ?

Kinda.

No, because he became President before the election.

I'm thinking of somebody elected to the Presidency, serving one full term and declining to contest the next election. Not just losing, a la Bush, Carter, Hoover, Taft, but not running at all.

That would let out Johnson, Coolidge, Taft, Harrison.

Of course, that could then lead to discussing what counts as 'an election.' Biden did contest the primaries.

Stuartinromford

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

eek said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Buttigieg was the lead person prepping Harris for the vice president debate - there is zero evidence that Harris does not like him

One thing I did notice (thinking of Hyufd rather than Harris specifically) is that in the discussion of the polls it was noted Harris' unfavourables are comparable to Trump's and her approval ratings are lower.

Yes, that's true. But she also has two advantages (1) Trump's unfavourables are at over 50% which means he can't realistically challenge to win the popular vote and (2) she has a far greater number of undecideds (13% against 4% if memory serves). With Trump, voters know what they're getting and don't like it. Harris has been sufficiently low profile for them to be uncertain about her.

If she can convert the undecideds to either 'unfavourables' or 'not convinced but she's better than the Small Dic Tator' she will win.

How she goes about trying to do that will be interesting to watch. Biden did well last time with his 'I've campaigned as a proud Democrat but I will be a President for all Americans.' It remains to be seen if she will attempt something similar.

Most interesting will be to see if she can up her game, after three and a half years as a semi-visible VP.
Historically she's been a very patchy public performer. She can be very good, but also pretty mediocre.

But is she tolerable, in this specific scenario?

Mexicanpete

HYUFD has an encyclopedic knowledge of US elections. However he is too keen to extrapolate using dodgy or house pollsters and he likes polling carried out on simulated candidates v Trump.

He may of course be right. He predicted Johnson's landslide in 2019 based on YouGov polling many of us considered an outlier, but I fear he is letting his enthusiasm for the right wing candidate cloud his judgement here.

Talking of encyclopedic knowledge @AndreaParma_82 didn't comment on the recent GE, I hope he's OK.

TheScreamingEagles

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

I spent the afternoon swimming in Verstappen's salty tears.

He's the word that gets you banned from PB.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Incidentally am I right in thinking that Biden is the first elected President to contest only one Presidential election (i.e. serve a full term but not seek a second) since Rutherford B. Hayes (1876-80)?

LBJ was an elected President who contested only one election for President, surely ?

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

I wonder if abortion will be a major factor that could help Harris. Not au fait enough with how/if that'd play (I know some religious types see it as an evil to be forbidden).

SouthamObserver

You know you're getting on when you find out you're older than one of the candidates to be the next US president!!!

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

I spent the afternoon swimming in Verstappen's salty tears.

He's the word that gets you banned from PB.

He's a Welsh rugby fan?

geoffw

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Incidentally am I right in thinking that Biden is the first elected President to contest only one Presidential election (i.e. serve a full term but not seek a second) since Rutherford B. Hayes (1876-80)?

LBJ?

Kinda.

I shall not seek, and I will not accept …

Casino_Royale

IanB2 said:

Harris as nominee now into 1.15. Barring some truly freak event, given the money and the backing and the obvious desire from the Dems to unify and start fighting Trump asap, that looks like free money?

Edit/ Now 1.14, £13,000 left

Edit/ £7,000 left

Edit/ All gone, now £11,000 at 1.13

I can't see how it's anything but Harris coronation now. All other contenders have backed her and Biden will direct his (near 4,000) pledged delegates to vote for her.

It can only be Obama's comments holding the market up, but Michelle isn't magically going to be whipped out of the hat in a few weeks.

Foxy

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

eek said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Buttigieg was the lead person prepping Harris for the vice president debate - there is zero evidence that Harris does not like him

One thing I did notice (thinking of Hyufd rather than Harris specifically) is that in the discussion of the polls it was noted Harris' unfavourables are comparable to Trump's and her approval ratings are lower.

Yes, that's true. But she also has two advantages (1) Trump's unfavourables are at over 50% which means he can't realistically challenge to win the popular vote and (2) she has a far greater number of undecideds (13% against 4% if memory serves). With Trump, voters know what they're getting and don't like it. Harris has been sufficiently low profile for them to be uncertain about her.

If she can convert the undecideds to either 'unfavourables' or 'not convinced but she's better than the Small Dic Tator' she will win.

How she goes about trying to do that will be interesting to watch. Biden did well last time with his 'I've campaigned as a proud Democrat but I will be a President for all Americans.' It remains to be seen if she will attempt something similar.

Most interesting will be to see if she can up her game, after three and a half years as a semi-visible VP.
Historically she's been a very patchy public performer. She can be very good, but also pretty mediocre.

It's the Starmer approach. Mediocre beats totally useless.

Scott_xP

@RpsAgainstTrump

Nikki Haley (in January): “The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the one who wins this election."

https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1815191745023369245

Casino_Royale

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

This is what so many Democrats want, as they'd enjoy the boot being on the other foot and the rich irony, but it won't happen.

Trump is nothing like as senile and doddery as Biden was, and his image is set from his defiance of the assassination attempt.

geoffw

SouthamObserver said:

You know you're getting on when you find out you're older than one of the candidates to be the next US president!!!

Think of those for whom it is both …

Nigelb

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

eek said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Buttigieg was the lead person prepping Harris for the vice president debate - there is zero evidence that Harris does not like him

One thing I did notice (thinking of Hyufd rather than Harris specifically) is that in the discussion of the polls it was noted Harris' unfavourables are comparable to Trump's and her approval ratings are lower.

Yes, that's true. But she also has two advantages (1) Trump's unfavourables are at over 50% which means he can't realistically challenge to win the popular vote and (2) she has a far greater number of undecideds (13% against 4% if memory serves). With Trump, voters know what they're getting and don't like it. Harris has been sufficiently low profile for them to be uncertain about her.

If she can convert the undecideds to either 'unfavourables' or 'not convinced but she's better than the Small Dic Tator' she will win.

How she goes about trying to do that will be interesting to watch. Biden did well last time with his 'I've campaigned as a proud Democrat but I will be a President for all Americans.' It remains to be seen if she will attempt something similar.

Most interesting will be to see if she can up her game, after three and a half years as a semi-visible VP.
Historically she's been a very patchy public performer. She can be very good, but also pretty mediocre.

But is she tolerable, in this specific scenario?

Absolutely, as far as I'm concerned. But it might still be a close election.
If she significantly outperforms expectations, it might not be.

Leon

The Dems still have a significant Biden problem. He’s too senile to stand again, but he’s just fine and dandy to be leader of the free world until November?

Every gaffe he makes between now and then will remind voters that the Democrats were prepared, until the last moment, to foist a clearly-demented president on voters for a second term

He really needs to step down from the job, as well

Mexicanpete

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Harris needs to sex up her profile. I think she will pick Lizzo as her VP.

I think you'll like this.

https://x.com/schlagteslinks/status/1815133956578443284

Despicable cultural appropriation. Kamala Harris should never be in Riverdance.

I seem to recall the Republican Party attempting to shame AOC for her rendition of the Breakfast Club dance, and it served to make her more popular than before.

Kamala has the moves.

edmundintokyo

I salute the indefatigability of the Polymarket Michelle Obama punters:
https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-nominee-2024?tid=1721631300328

DecrepiterJohnL

SouthamObserver said:

Two things that Harris can do nothing about but which will cost her millions of votes: she's a woman and she is not white. Even against a convicted felon and serial sex pest who is clearly losing his marbles that puts her at a significant disadvantage.

Does it though? Obama was not White, and Hillary was miles clear on the popular vote despite being a woman. It may be that in these enlightened times, most of the people who care about a candidate's background are those who share it, so it becomes positive rather than negative. Kamala also taps into the Indian diaspora which includes a lot of tech bros in America: motivated and rich.

MisterBedfordshire

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

gettingbetter said:

HYUFD said:

Northern_Al said:

Very surprised to see that HYUFD hasn't endorsed Kamala yet.

I would vote for Trump over Harris so obviously not

What about Ukraine? And climate change?

Harris is a woke warrior who wants reparations for slavery, transgender bathrooms...

(pedant gene activated)

Bathrooms for transgender, it's the people who are transgender, not the bathrooms.

All the bathrooms on my GWR train yesterday were Transgender. Ditto Thameslink.

This is a total outrage. Railways have gone woke.

They didn't have any baths (or showers) either, just toilet.

RochdalePioneers

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

I spent the afternoon swimming in Verstappen's salty tears.

He's the word that gets you banned from PB.

I put more value in the Verstappen to Mercedes rumours than many. Jos is deeply disliked by RB management and his boy has started Prosting the Ferrari over the radio when it doesn’t do what he demands that it do.

Verstappen won RB the constructor and driver titles. Time for Horny to channel his best Frank Williams and fire him now that his decline has set it.

DecrepiterJohnL

Leon said:

The Dems still have a significant Biden problem. He’s too senile to stand again, but he’s just fine and dandy to be leader of the free world until November?

Every gaffe he makes between now and then will remind voters that the Democrats were prepared, until the last moment, to foist a clearly-demented president on voters for a second term

He really needs to step down from the job, as well

Paradoxically, the thought of a doddery old has-been in the White House might harm Trump more than Kamala. (eta I agree Biden should step down.)

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

I spent the afternoon swimming in Verstappen's salty tears.

He's the word that gets you banned from PB.

He's a Welsh rugby fan?

He's much worse.

CD13

The inevitable has happened, albeit a year later than it should have done, the American ekectorate were being offered a choice between the the demented or the barmy. A more logical choice would have been between Harris or Haley.

Perhaps the choice will be the demented and the barmy one, and the best the septics can hope for is that Trump snuffs it reasonably early on. He looks like a walking heart attack.

Foxy

DecrepiterJohnL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Two things that Harris can do nothing about but which will cost her millions of votes: she's a woman and she is not white. Even against a convicted felon and serial sex pest who is clearly losing his marbles that puts her at a significant disadvantage.

Does it though? Obama was not White, and Hillary was miles clear on the popular vote despite being a woman. It may be that in these enlightened times, most of the people who care about a candidate's background are those who share it, so it becomes positive rather than negative. Kamala also taps into the Indian diaspora which includes a lot of tech bros in America: motivated and rich.

Not just that, but key to getting the Dems back in is getting out the young vote, the black vote and the female vote.

White supremacists with "Trad Wives" weren't going to be voting Biden anyway.

MisterBedfordshire

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alanbrooke said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Harris needs to sex up her profile. I think she will pick Lizzo as her VP.

I think you'll like this.

https://x.com/schlagteslinks/status/1815133956578443284

Despicable cultural appropriation. Kamala Harris should never be in Riverdance.

They are all at it since Sanna Marin

ydoethur

Back in January I made a series of silly predictions. One was:

'The Republican candidate will be somebody sane, and the Democratic candidate will be aged below 107.'

Disconcerting to find that one of them came true.

But - we still have the crazy candidates for both parts of the Republican ticket.

Nigelb

.

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

This is what so many Democrats want, as they'd enjoy the boot being on the other foot and the rich irony, but it won't happen.

Trump is nothing like as senile and doddery as Biden was, and his image is set from his defiance of the assassination attempt.

I wonder about that.

It now seems that the guy was just another in the line of sad loners who shoot up schools or crowds. Enabled by decades of GOP gun policies.
Not the "them" that they immediately and rather imprecisely identified.

Takes the shine off the whole saved by Jesus schtick.

Fishing

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

No, anybody who is opposed to Trump for being a convicted criminal, sexual predator, etc., was already going to vote for Biden. It's not as if it's much of a secret. And they are not enough to win, especially given the small but significant bias against the Democrats in the electoral college. Of course Harris is an advocate for women's rights - she was only appointed VP because of her race and gender. And she also has plenty of her own skeletons in the closet from her time as DA in LA. As I've mentioned on here before, a couple of LA legal friends of mine, both very liberal, can't stand her given their experiences with her.

She's as close as the Dems could come to renominating Biden, who was failing, and not just because of his age. She'll mostly run on more of the same, because to do otherwise would be to trash her own record. And I think she's highly likely to lose. Given the high negatives from Biden's term of office, the Dems would have done better to chose someone else.

Democrats win best when they are led by charismatic bullshitters - Kennedy, Clinton, Obama - who inspire the youth and minorities with cretinous and vacuous bromides ("Yes we can", "It's the economy, stupid", etc.) delivered ringingly. And Harris isn't one of those.

Alanbrooke

Nigelb said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

eek said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Buttigieg was the lead person prepping Harris for the vice president debate - there is zero evidence that Harris does not like him

One thing I did notice (thinking of Hyufd rather than Harris specifically) is that in the discussion of the polls it was noted Harris' unfavourables are comparable to Trump's and her approval ratings are lower.

Yes, that's true. But she also has two advantages (1) Trump's unfavourables are at over 50% which means he can't realistically challenge to win the popular vote and (2) she has a far greater number of undecideds (13% against 4% if memory serves). With Trump, voters know what they're getting and don't like it. Harris has been sufficiently low profile for them to be uncertain about her.

If she can convert the undecideds to either 'unfavourables' or 'not convinced but she's better than the Small Dic Tator' she will win.

How she goes about trying to do that will be interesting to watch. Biden did well last time with his 'I've campaigned as a proud Democrat but I will be a President for all Americans.' It remains to be seen if she will attempt something similar.

Most interesting will be to see if she can up her game, after three and a half years as a semi-visible VP.
Historically she's been a very patchy public performer. She can be very good, but also pretty mediocre.

But is she tolerable, in this specific scenario?

Absolutely, as far as I'm concerned. But it might still be a close election.
If she significantly outperforms expectations, it might not be.

Jeffrey Dahmer on a democrat ticket would get be good enough as far as youre concerned. I really dont get why you just dont move to the USA and enjoy yourself properly.

bondegezou

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxe2g3drxj5o Labour to allow the apprenticeship levy to be spent on a broader array of training. This is very welcome news as apprenticeships are bureaucratic spaghettis of red tape.

RochdalePioneers

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

This is what so many Democrats want, as they'd enjoy the boot being on the other foot and the rich irony, but it won't happen.

Trump is nothing like as senile and doddery as Biden was, and his image is set from his defiance of the assassination attempt.

Isn’t he? An awful lot of the (rightful) abuse of Biden was him forgetting where he is, who or what he is talking about, rambling off at a tangent, being physically frail etc etc - and we have Trump doing all that.

Added on top we have Trump’s obsession with shark vs electrocution and his endless whining about how his election was stolen - which wanders squarely into unhinged territory every single time.

So the Harris camp only has to frame all of that content the exact same way that Trump did. Then add on the rest. Trump the criminal. Trump the fornicator. Trump the fraud. Trump the women-hater fronting a campaign to reduce women to chattel. Yes a republican tried to kill him. That doesn’t negate all the rest of his problems.

Trump wants the campaign to be all about him. With the departure of Biden he gets his way. Won’t play out as he expects.

geoffw

Thing is, with age comes SagaCity sagacity

Nigelb

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

eek said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Buttigieg was the lead person prepping Harris for the vice president debate - there is zero evidence that Harris does not like him

One thing I did notice (thinking of Hyufd rather than Harris specifically) is that in the discussion of the polls it was noted Harris' unfavourables are comparable to Trump's and her approval ratings are lower.

Yes, that's true. But she also has two advantages (1) Trump's unfavourables are at over 50% which means he can't realistically challenge to win the popular vote and (2) she has a far greater number of undecideds (13% against 4% if memory serves). With Trump, voters know what they're getting and don't like it. Harris has been sufficiently low profile for them to be uncertain about her.

If she can convert the undecideds to either 'unfavourables' or 'not convinced but she's better than the Small Dic Tator' she will win.

How she goes about trying to do that will be interesting to watch. Biden did well last time with his 'I've campaigned as a proud Democrat but I will be a President for all Americans.' It remains to be seen if she will attempt something similar.

Most interesting will be to see if she can up her game, after three and a half years as a semi-visible VP.
Historically she's been a very patchy public performer. She can be very good, but also pretty mediocre.

But is she tolerable, in this specific scenario?

Absolutely, as far as I'm concerned. But it might still be a close election.
If she significantly outperforms expectations, it might not be.

Jeffrey Dahmer on a democrat ticket would get be good enough as far as youre concerned. I really dont get why you just dont move to the USA and enjoy yourself properly.

I have quite enough fun winding you up, thanks.

Alanbrooke

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

This is what so many Democrats want, as they'd enjoy the boot being on the other foot and the rich irony, but it won't happen.

Trump is nothing like as senile and doddery as Biden was, and his image is set from his defiance of the assassination attempt.

Isn’t he? An awful lot of the (rightful) abuse of Biden was him forgetting where he is, who or what he is talking about, rambling off at a tangent, being physically frail etc etc - and we have Trump doing all that.

Added on top we have Trump’s obsession with shark vs electrocution and his endless whining about how his election was stolen - which wanders squarely into unhinged territory every single time.

So the Harris camp only has to frame all of that content the exact same way that Trump did. Then add on the rest. Trump the criminal. Trump the fornicator. Trump the fraud. Trump the women-hater fronting a campaign to reduce women to chattel. Yes a republican tried to kill him. That doesn’t negate all the rest of his problems.

Trump wants the campaign to be all about him. With the departure of Biden he gets his way. Won’t play out as he expects.

tsk, have you never fornicated ?

Alanbrooke

Nigelb said:

Alanbrooke said:

Nigelb said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

eek said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

Buttigieg was the lead person prepping Harris for the vice president debate - there is zero evidence that Harris does not like him

One thing I did notice (thinking of Hyufd rather than Harris specifically) is that in the discussion of the polls it was noted Harris' unfavourables are comparable to Trump's and her approval ratings are lower.

Yes, that's true. But she also has two advantages (1) Trump's unfavourables are at over 50% which means he can't realistically challenge to win the popular vote and (2) she has a far greater number of undecideds (13% against 4% if memory serves). With Trump, voters know what they're getting and don't like it. Harris has been sufficiently low profile for them to be uncertain about her.

If she can convert the undecideds to either 'unfavourables' or 'not convinced but she's better than the Small Dic Tator' she will win.

How she goes about trying to do that will be interesting to watch. Biden did well last time with his 'I've campaigned as a proud Democrat but I will be a President for all Americans.' It remains to be seen if she will attempt something similar.

Most interesting will be to see if she can up her game, after three and a half years as a semi-visible VP.
Historically she's been a very patchy public performer. She can be very good, but also pretty mediocre.

But is she tolerable, in this specific scenario?

Absolutely, as far as I'm concerned. But it might still be a close election.
If she significantly outperforms expectations, it might not be.

Jeffrey Dahmer on a democrat ticket would get be good enough as far as youre concerned. I really dont get why you just dont move to the USA and enjoy yourself properly.

I have quite enough fun winding you up, thanks.

You can still do that from across the Atlantic.

And you get to play with M16s

tlg86

ydoethur said:

He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.

Tough one, but I think being a convicted criminal is just about worse than being a lawyer.

RochdalePioneers

Alanbrooke said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

This is what so many Democrats want, as they'd enjoy the boot being on the other foot and the rich irony, but it won't happen.

Trump is nothing like as senile and doddery as Biden was, and his image is set from his defiance of the assassination attempt.

Isn’t he? An awful lot of the (rightful) abuse of Biden was him forgetting where he is, who or what he is talking about, rambling off at a tangent, being physically frail etc etc - and we have Trump doing all that.

Added on top we have Trump’s obsession with shark vs electrocution and his endless whining about how his election was stolen - which wanders squarely into unhinged territory every single time.

So the Harris camp only has to frame all of that content the exact same way that Trump did. Then add on the rest. Trump the criminal. Trump the fornicator. Trump the fraud. Trump the women-hater fronting a campaign to reduce women to chattel. Yes a republican tried to kill him. That doesn’t negate all the rest of his problems.

Trump wants the campaign to be all about him. With the departure of Biden he gets his way. Won’t play out as he expects.

tsk, have you never fornicated ?

Not as the anointed by God leader of the evangelical Christian caucus. The bible right fawn over Trump like he is a Godly man. I interpret that as they’re all hypocrites on the quiet so don’t see a problem in Trump being a walking embodiment of everything they are opposed to.

Leon

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

The Dems still have a significant Biden problem. He’s too senile to stand again, but he’s just fine and dandy to be leader of the free world until November?

Every gaffe he makes between now and then will remind voters that the Democrats were prepared, until the last moment, to foist a clearly-demented president on voters for a second term

He really needs to step down from the job, as well

Paradoxically, the thought of a doddery old has-been in the White House might harm Trump more than Kamala. (eta I agree Biden should step down.)

I think this is gonna be a real issue for the Dems as the illogicality sinks in with voters. “OK we admit, he’s in grave cognitive decline, the debate showed the real Biden, he’s gaga. But he’s keeping the job and the nuclear codes til January 2025, he’ll be fine, stop worrying”

This is unsustainable. It’s THE attack line for the GOP and they will surely use it, relentlessly

“How can we trust anything you say when you kept an insane man in the White House, a man who is getting worse, daily, and by the way he’s STILL THERE”

MisterBedfordshire

"Former minister David Davis to launch Lucy Letby probe after experts cast doubt

David Davis will question the conviction of child-killer nurse Lucy Letby using parliamentary privilege from September"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lucy-letby-child-killer-nurse-b2583362.html

dr_spyn

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

This is what so many Democrats want, as they'd enjoy the boot being on the other foot and the rich irony, but it won't happen.

Trump is nothing like as senile and doddery as Biden was, and his image is set from his defiance of the assassination attempt.

Isn’t he? An awful lot of the (rightful) abuse of Biden was him forgetting where he is, who or what he is talking about, rambling off at a tangent, being physically frail etc etc - and we have Trump doing all that.

Added on top we have Trump’s obsession with shark vs electrocution and his endless whining about how his election was stolen - which wanders squarely into unhinged territory every single time.

So the Harris camp only has to frame all of that content the exact same way that Trump did. Then add on the rest. Trump the criminal. Trump the fornicator. Trump the fraud. Trump the women-hater fronting a campaign to reduce women to chattel. Yes a republican tried to kill him. That doesn’t negate all the rest of his problems.

Trump wants the campaign to be all about him. With the departure of Biden he gets his way. Won’t play out as he expects.

Replay the footage of the QAnon Shaman in Nancy Pelosi's Office, and Trump's reaction to the Capitol Hill riots.

IanB2

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Harris as nominee now into 1.15. Barring some truly freak event, given the money and the backing and the obvious desire from the Dems to unify and start fighting Trump asap, that looks like free money?

Edit/ Now 1.14, £13,000 left

Edit/ £7,000 left

Edit/ All gone, now £11,000 at 1.13

I can't see how it's anything but Harris coronation now. All other contenders have backed her and Biden will direct his (near 4,000) pledged delegates to vote for her.

It can only be Obama's comments holding the market up, but Michelle isn't magically going to be whipped out of the hat in a few weeks.

R4 had some US politician calling for an open primary just now, but he sounds like a lone voice. The Dems know the risks of spending the next few weeks tearing each other apart.

The free money is there at 1.13, where the flurry of recent bets have dried up.

TheScreamingEagles

Bless.

Rachel Reeves is preparing to hand millions of public sector workers an above-inflation pay rise and attempt to blame the Conservatives for any tax rises needed to fund it

https://x.com/thetimes/status/1815281019026567442

eek

MisterBedfordshire said:

"Former minister David Davis to launch Lucy Letby probe after experts cast doubt

David Davis will question the conviction of child-killer nurse Lucy Letby using parliamentary privilege from September"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lucy-letby-child-killer-nurse-b2583362.html

Yet Parliament is in session for another 2 weeks

Nigelb

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

The Dems still have a significant Biden problem. He’s too senile to stand again, but he’s just fine and dandy to be leader of the free world until November?

Every gaffe he makes between now and then will remind voters that the Democrats were prepared, until the last moment, to foist a clearly-demented president on voters for a second term

He really needs to step down from the job, as well

Paradoxically, the thought of a doddery old has-been in the White House might harm Trump more than Kamala. (eta I agree Biden should step down.)

I think this is gonna be a real issue for the Dems as the illogicality sinks in with voters. “OK we admit, he’s in grave cognitive decline, the debate showed the real Biden, he’s gaga. But he’s keeping the job and the nuclear codes til January 2025, he’ll be fine, stop worrying”

This is unsustainable. It’s THE attack line for the GOP and they will surely use it, relentlessly

“How can we trust anything you say when you kept an insane man in the White House, a man who is getting worse, daily, and by the way he’s STILL THERE”

You can't see the difference between four more months, and four more years ?

Biden's current capacity is a legitimate question, but yours is hardly a slam dunk argument.

IanB2

Fishing said:

ydoethur said:

As I said yesterday, they would be mad not to run such a campaign. He is, pun intended, their Trump card.

He's far too old. She isn't.
He's clearly mad as a box of frogs. She isn't.
He's a convicted criminal. She's a lawyer.
He's a sexual predator. She's an advocate for women's rights.
He's controlling the courts through dodgy practices. She works to maintain the rule of law.

If this is election is a referendum on Donald Trump, the Republicans will lose.

Just as in 2016 it became a referendum on Hilary Clinton and that was terminal for the Dems. But she was a far stronger candidate in 2016 than Trump is now (as was he, indeed).

I always thought Biden would win anyway for that reason. But with his age and frailty no longer the issue the path for Trump looks difficult, not helped by his choice of running mate.

Of course, there are still unknowns. For example, who Harris will pick as her running mate. Or how the convention will play out. But at this moment, the Democrats seem to have lanced their boil just at the moment the Republicans were trying to exploit it.

(Incidentally I note contrary to what the OC 1st Essex Yeomanry was saying last night Buttigieg has endorsed Harris.)

No, anybody who is opposed to Trump for being a convicted criminal, sexual predator, etc., was already going to vote for Biden. It's not as if it's much of a secret. And they are not enough to win, especially given the small but significant bias against the Democrats in the electoral college. Of course Harris is an advocate for women's rights - she was only appointed VP because of her race and gender. And she also has plenty of her own skeletons in the closet from her time as DA in LA. As I've mentioned on here before, a couple of LA legal friends of mine, both very liberal, can't stand her given their experiences with her.

She's as close as the Dems could come to renominating Biden, who was failing, and not just because of his age. She'll mostly run on more of the same, because to do otherwise would be to trash her own record. And I think she's highly likely to lose. Given the high negatives from Biden's term of office, the Dems would have done better to chose someone else.

Democrats win best when they are led by charismatic bullshitters - Kennedy, Clinton, Obama - who inspire the youth and minorities with cretinous and vacuous bromides ("Yes we can", "It's the economy, stupid", etc.) delivered ringingly. And Harris isn't one of those.

Probably true, but only if they could get from today to choosing that other someone without damaging their own side and losing the best part of a month. Neither of which is possible.

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bless.

Rachel Reeves is preparing to hand millions of public sector workers an above-inflation pay rise and attempt to blame the Conservatives for any tax rises needed to fund it

https://x.com/thetimes/status/1815281019026567442

It's the first of many mistakes

edmundintokyo

WTF I just found out Kamala Harris will be 60 by the time the election comes around. Conventionally 60 is old - does she just look really young because she's surrounded by people in their 80s or does she have a really great skincare regime or what?

Mexicanpete

SouthamObserver said:

Two things that Harris can do nothing about but which will cost her millions of votes: she's a woman and she is not white. Even against a convicted felon and serial sex pest who is clearly losing his marbles that puts her at a significant disadvantage.

Surely voters opining such a view were already very much in the Trump column.

Nigelb

Love the NYT breaking news headline.
https://x.com/joshtpm/status/1815211486282744126

TheScreamingEagles

MisterBedfordshire said:

"Former minister David Davis to launch Lucy Letby probe after experts cast doubt

David Davis will question the conviction of child-killer nurse Lucy Letby using parliamentary privilege from September"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/lucy-letby-child-killer-nurse-b2583362.html

Well at least he isn't triggering a vanity by-election.

ydoethur

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bless.

Rachel Reeves is preparing to hand millions of public sector workers an above-inflation pay rise and attempt to blame the Conservatives for any tax rises needed to fund it

https://x.com/thetimes/status/1815281019026567442

It's the first of many mistakes

The problem isn't so much finding the money for this pay rise. It's finding the money to pay for the last two pay rises which central government implemented but forgot to fund.

So she may actually have a case here.

Of course, how she can raise taxes (or at least, which ones she can raise and by how much) given her manifesto is a more difficult question.

Leon

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

This is what so many Democrats want, as they'd enjoy the boot being on the other foot and the rich irony, but it won't happen.

Trump is nothing like as senile and doddery as Biden was, and his image is set from his defiance of the assassination attempt.

Isn’t he? An awful lot of the (rightful) abuse of Biden was him forgetting where he is, who or what he is talking about, rambling off at a tangent, being physically frail etc etc - and we have Trump doing all that.

Added on top we have Trump’s obsession with shark vs electrocution and his endless whining about how his election was stolen - which wanders squarely into unhinged territory every single time.

So the Harris camp only has to frame all of that content the exact same way that Trump did. Then add on the rest. Trump the criminal. Trump the fornicator. Trump the fraud. Trump the women-hater fronting a campaign to reduce women to chattel. Yes a republican tried to kill him. That doesn’t negate all the rest of his problems.

Trump wants the campaign to be all about him. With the departure of Biden he gets his way. Won’t play out as he expects.

All that would be true if Biden had quit the job of POTUS as well as the Nom. But he hasn’t. Throughout her campaign the Mad Biden will be the actual President, making her and her campaign look idiotic and bizarre

The more I think about it the crazier it is

MisterBedfordshire

bondegezou said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxe2g3drxj5o Labour to allow the apprenticeship levy to be spent on a broader array of training. This is very welcome news as apprenticeships are bureaucratic spaghettis of red tape.

So rather than a simple"pay this tax and get it back if you hire apprentices" you now have to apply to yet another state bureaucracy to get their permission to have a training course deemed suitable.

No wonder Farage looks so pleased with himself. Labour will achieve nothing other than making a living for large numbers of petty bureaucrats and lawyers.

And thats before we get into the bureaucracy politiising things "where is the module on transgender basket weaving studies" ?

TheScreamingEagles

Nigelb said:

Love the NYT breaking news headline.
https://x.com/joshtpm/status/1815211486282744126

So HYUFD works for the NYT.

SandyRentool

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bless.

Rachel Reeves is preparing to hand millions of public sector workers an above-inflation pay rise and attempt to blame the Conservatives for any tax rises needed to fund it

https://x.com/thetimes/status/1815281019026567442

So she'll accept the recommendations of the independent pay review bodies, rather than the previous approach of precipitating strikes by ignoring them.

Cookie

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

This is what so many Democrats want, as they'd enjoy the boot being on the other foot and the rich irony, but it won't happen.

Trump is nothing like as senile and doddery as Biden was, and his image is set from his defiance of the assassination attempt.

Well, a bit. There was a great photo of him oozing defiance. The film of the incident was less flattering. He looked like a confused old man.
I mean, fair play, he had just been shot in the ear. He's allowed to ɓe slightly confused. But the film of it does him few favours.

Alanbrooke

ydoethur said:

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bless.

Rachel Reeves is preparing to hand millions of public sector workers an above-inflation pay rise and attempt to blame the Conservatives for any tax rises needed to fund it

https://x.com/thetimes/status/1815281019026567442

It's the first of many mistakes

The problem isn't so much finding the money for this pay rise. It's finding the money to pay for the last two pay rises which central government implemented but forgot to fund.

So she may actually have a case here.

Of course, how she can raise taxes (or at least, which ones she can raise and by how much) given her manifesto is a more difficult question.

I think the problem is more signalling to public sector workers that there is money galore.

Leon

Nigelb said:

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

The Dems still have a significant Biden problem. He’s too senile to stand again, but he’s just fine and dandy to be leader of the free world until November?

Every gaffe he makes between now and then will remind voters that the Democrats were prepared, until the last moment, to foist a clearly-demented president on voters for a second term

He really needs to step down from the job, as well

Paradoxically, the thought of a doddery old has-been in the White House might harm Trump more than Kamala. (eta I agree Biden should step down.)

I think this is gonna be a real issue for the Dems as the illogicality sinks in with voters. “OK we admit, he’s in grave cognitive decline, the debate showed the real Biden, he’s gaga. But he’s keeping the job and the nuclear codes til January 2025, he’ll be fine, stop worrying”

This is unsustainable. It’s THE attack line for the GOP and they will surely use it, relentlessly

“How can we trust anything you say when you kept an insane man in the White House, a man who is getting worse, daily, and by the way he’s STILL THERE”

You can't see the difference between four more months, and four more years ?

Biden's current capacity is a legitimate question, but yours is hardly a slam dunk argument.

It’s unarguable. Biden is not gonna be the Dem candidate because we all saw his dementia in the debate. Biden himself has now admitted it - unless he’s quitting for some OTHER reason he hasn’t specified?

Yet he’s absolutely ticketty boo to have the toughest most important job in the world til next
year? Even tho he’s demented, and admits it?

ydoethur

Cookie said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

This is what so many Democrats want, as they'd enjoy the boot being on the other foot and the rich irony, but it won't happen.

Trump is nothing like as senile and doddery as Biden was, and his image is set from his defiance of the assassination attempt.

Well, a bit. There was a great photo of him oozing defiance. The film of the incident was less flattering. He looked like a confused old man.
I mean, fair play, he had just been shot in the ear. He's allowed to ɓe slightly confused. But the film of it does him few favours.

to misquote Bernard Cornwell:

'He looked like a confused old man, sir. But that ain't difficult on account of the fact that he is a confused old man.'

Alanbrooke

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bless.

Rachel Reeves is preparing to hand millions of public sector workers an above-inflation pay rise and attempt to blame the Conservatives for any tax rises needed to fund it

https://x.com/thetimes/status/1815281019026567442

So she'll accept the recommendations of the independent pay review bodies, rather than the previous approach of precipitating strikes by ignoring them.

All she has to do now is fund it.

And then all the coming recommendations from review bodies. 35% pay rise anyone ?

MattW

bondegezou said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cxe2g3drxj5o Labour to allow the apprenticeship levy to be spent on a broader array of training. This is very welcome news as apprenticeships are bureaucratic spaghettis of red tape.

Here's hoping some of it is spent on CPD for engineers in Local Highways Authorities so they know how to design and build pavements.

numbertwelve

It is not entirely inconceivable that Biden could resign during the election campaign.

I suspect though that he’s going to cling on, and I think the story will move to Harris and Trump in fairly short order.

MisterBedfordshire

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bless.

Rachel Reeves is preparing to hand millions of public sector workers an above-inflation pay rise and attempt to blame the Conservatives for any tax rises needed to fund it

https://x.com/thetimes/status/1815281019026567442

So she'll accept the recommendations of the independent pay review bodies, rather than the previous approach of precipitating strikes by ignoring them.

Point of order. Who are these people, what are they independent of, what is their history and expertise, what vested interests do they have, what history do they have with regard to being generous with other peoples money?

Second point of order. With 14 years in power why were the tories too stupid to ensure that sound thatcherites were appointed or just abolish said bodies?

Theuniondivvie

The BBC is really excelling itself in banal truisms about Biden>Harris, last night Sarah Smith and some airhead which made her sound like Ed Murrow, R4 this am. ‘Polling shows Harris may not be able to beat Trump’ - no shit!

Weeks and weeks of Justin Webb 😬

Leon

numbertwelve said:

It is not entirely inconceivable that Biden could resign during the election campaign.

I suspect though that he’s going to cling on, and I think the story will move to Harris and Trump in fairly short order.

No, it won’t. Because presidents still have to do loads of things, in public

Every time they wheel Biden out - ouch

ydoethur

MisterBedfordshire said:

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bless.

Rachel Reeves is preparing to hand millions of public sector workers an above-inflation pay rise and attempt to blame the Conservatives for any tax rises needed to fund it

https://x.com/thetimes/status/1815281019026567442

So she'll accept the recommendations of the independent pay review bodies, rather than the previous approach of precipitating strikes by ignoring them.

Point of order. Who are these people, what are they independent of, what is their history and expertise, what vested interests do they have.

Second point of order. With 14 years in power why were the tories too stupid to ensure that sound thatcherites were appointed or just abolish said bodies?

They created them...in 1991.

Nigelb

edmundintokyo said:

WTF I just found out Kamala Harris will be 60 by the time the election comes around. Conventionally 60 is old - does she just look really young because she's surrounded by people in their 80s or does she have a really great skincare regime or what?

Yes.

Of course it's only a few days since we were saying how old our new PM is.
He'll have a lot in common with the new President next year. Sixtysomething former prosecutor who got promoted from deputy leader...

MisterBedfordshire

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bless.

Rachel Reeves is preparing to hand millions of public sector workers an above-inflation pay rise and attempt to blame the Conservatives for any tax rises needed to fund it

https://x.com/thetimes/status/1815281019026567442

The bond markets will Trussify her if such cakeism continues.

ydoethur

Apropos of nothing:

The new Outlook app is utterly shit. What were Microsoft thinking?

RochdalePioneers

Leon said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

On topic? Absolutely skewer the senile old bastard. We know Trump is doolally- his only saving grace was that he was less doolally than Biden. Now? Go for it.

On Verstappen? A whiny boy who can’t handle not winning. GP calling him childish over the radio was *special*

This is what so many Democrats want, as they'd enjoy the boot being on the other foot and the rich irony, but it won't happen.

Trump is nothing like as senile and doddery as Biden was, and his image is set from his defiance of the assassination attempt.

Isn’t he? An awful lot of the (rightful) abuse of Biden was him forgetting where he is, who or what he is talking about, rambling off at a tangent, being physically frail etc etc - and we have Trump doing all that.

Added on top we have Trump’s obsession with shark vs electrocution and his endless whining about how his election was stolen - which wanders squarely into unhinged territory every single time.

So the Harris camp only has to frame all of that content the exact same way that Trump did. Then add on the rest. Trump the criminal. Trump the fornicator. Trump the fraud. Trump the women-hater fronting a campaign to reduce women to chattel. Yes a republican tried to kill him. That doesn’t negate all the rest of his problems.

Trump wants the campaign to be all about him. With the departure of Biden he gets his way. Won’t play out as he expects.

All that would be true if Biden had quit the job of POTUS as well as the Nom. But he hasn’t. Throughout her campaign the Mad Biden will be the actual President, making her and her campaign look idiotic and bizarre

The more I think about it the crazier it is

Quitting to install Harris as a succession war rages in the DNC would have been crazy. But if they are now all backing Harris then there’s two scenarios:
1) He stays in office to let her campaign. She has more time but will get asked if she still supports him being the sitting president
2) He quits, giving her 3 months in office before the election. She gets to say “I am the president” and give the rednecks time to get used to the idea of an uppity woman - an immigrant at that - being Prez.

They should do 2, they’ll probably do 1, it’s not as big an issue as you’re suggesting

Casino_Royale

Theuniondivvie said:

The BBC is really excelling itself in banal truisms about Biden>Harris, last night Sarah Smith and some airhead which made her sound like Ed Murrow, R4 this am. ‘Polling shows Harris may not be able to beat Trump’ - no shit!

Weeks and weeks of Justin Webb 😬

The BBC is like watching a six-form class try and pick up what's really going on from their elders.

Alanbrooke

ydoethur said:

Apropos of nothing:

The new Outlook app is utterly shit. What were Microsoft thinking?

bigger profits by making us all shift to a new version