Well that was a bit of a shit show at the end of the session in the cricket. They go in with only Brook out and could have come out and gone T20 mode for an hour or so and game out of reach of WI. Instead, if they collapso quickly, game on.
I was at the ground yesterday. Fantastic day of test cricket, especially the 6s by the WI number 11.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
"If we could unlock just 1% of the money in defined contribution schemes - and invest that in more productive assets [and] fast-growing British companies - that’d be £8bn to help finance growth and prosperity and wealth creation here in Britain. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ng5n0my0zo
Perhaps Reeves could start off by publicly investing her own money in 'productive assets'.
And then announce that all public sector pensions will henceforth be dependent upon the return on 'productive assets'.
Is the Reeves scheme markedly different from Jeremy Hunt's? I share the general scepticism that there is an untapped mass of world-beating British industry, but I get the intent.
Wasn't Hunt's an ISA ?
If so then investing would be from personal choice.
Defined contribution pensions are more towards obligatory for many people.
Now if Reeves would suggest an optional extra pension aimed at investing in UK assets and businesses then that would be worthwhile.
In fact that could be linked with putting a maximum pension cap into a 'standard' pension scheme.
Be interesting to know how many people actually taken advantage of this ISA. I haven't rushed out looking to stick any of my spare cash in it.
Zero. Just consultation so far. Didn't get launched before Mr Sunak pulled the chain on the electoral cistern. So down the toilet for now, I believe.
Was going to be 5K addition to the normal 20K pa, but spent on UK stocks and shares.
Buit thanks for mentioning it. I had clean forgotten it, and am doing my annual tax etc sort out, so good to have it checked.
I think it's quite likely ISA limit goes down to £10k from 2025 and the 'British ISA' will be dropped. Hopefully the 'Help to Buy ISA' or whatever it is which simply fuels house prices will be dropped too
That last has been stopped, at least for new entrants, some years back. But the fountain is still flowing:
"If we could unlock just 1% of the money in defined contribution schemes - and invest that in more productive assets [and] fast-growing British companies - that’d be £8bn to help finance growth and prosperity and wealth creation here in Britain. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ng5n0my0zo
Perhaps Reeves could start off by publicly investing her own money in 'productive assets'.
And then announce that all public sector pensions will henceforth be dependent upon the return on 'productive assets'.
Is the Reeves scheme markedly different from Jeremy Hunt's? I share the general scepticism that there is an untapped mass of world-beating British industry, but I get the intent.
Wasn't Hunt's an ISA ?
If so then investing would be from personal choice.
Defined contribution pensions are more towards obligatory for many people.
Now if Reeves would suggest an optional extra pension aimed at investing in UK assets and businesses then that would be worthwhile.
In fact that could be linked with putting a maximum pension cap into a 'standard' pension scheme.
Be interesting to know how many people actually taken advantage of this ISA. I haven't rushed out looking to stick any of my spare cash in it.
Zero. Just consultation so far. Didn't get launched before Mr Sunak pulled the chain on the electoral cistern. So down the toilet for now, I believe.
Was going to be 5K addition to the normal 20K pa, but spent on UK stocks and shares.
Buit thanks for mentioning it. I had clean forgotten it, and am doing my annual tax etc sort out, so good to have it checked.
I think it's quite likely ISA limit goes down to £10k from 2025 and the 'British ISA' will be dropped. Hopefully the 'Help to Buy ISA' or whatever it is which simply fuels house prices will be dropped too
As a "regular" ISA user, the annual limit is only an issue when investing a lump sum (e.g. tax-free cash from a pension ), my monthly contribution does not threaten the limit.
The Tories hold just five seats with majorities of over 10,000. The LibDems hold 25 seats and Labour hold 115 seats with 10,000+ majorities.
The Tories are in a desperate position. How can they make it worse?
Easy. By electing Braverman or Jenrick as leader.
A quick modelling exercise on the recent results shows that if the Tories elect Braverman or Jenrick as leader and lose 10% of their support to Lab and LDs then they lose an extra 30 seats or so. But if they gain back 10% of RUF support they gain back 20 seats. It's a bit of a wash.
But I don't think the future of the Tory party depends on arithmetic. It depends much more on behaviour. Poor behaviour is what has caused their recent defeat. If it continues, they won't recover. The entitled antics of Victoria Atkins yesterday is not a good omen.
The LIbDems, on the other hand, I think will provide a model of how to oppose with constructive suggestions and mutually respectful behaviour. I think (and hope) that Labour will respond in kind. But if the Tories act like spoiled brats, encouraged by Farage heckling from the back, then there is no hope for them.
The 2024 Tory vote is their core vote, they aren't losing any more of it or at most a trickle to the LDs. If they gain Reform votes, especially after a pact with Reform in seats where the Tories were second and the Tory and Reform combined vote was bigger than Labour they gain over 100 seats plus
I love modelling with spreadsheets. I have all the data and as many assumptions as you like. But I think the future of the Tory Party is more dependent on behaviour and personalities than arithmetic. Is the Tory membership collectively capable of choosing a winning leader? I suspect not.
The Tory membership chose Cameron and Boris, the only Conservative majority winners this century
Both turned out to be short term gain for long term pain.
That’s hardly an endorsement of the membership’s judgement.
Although given that the average Tory member is now aged over 70, maybe it was an optimal play from their own perspective?
The Tories hold just five seats with majorities of over 10,000. The LibDems hold 25 seats and Labour hold 115 seats with 10,000+ majorities.
The Tories are in a desperate position. How can they make it worse?
Easy. By electing Braverman or Jenrick as leader.
A quick modelling exercise on the recent results shows that if the Tories elect Braverman or Jenrick as leader and lose 10% of their support to Lab and LDs then they lose an extra 30 seats or so. But if they gain back 10% of RUF support they gain back 20 seats. It's a bit of a wash.
But I don't think the future of the Tory party depends on arithmetic. It depends much more on behaviour. Poor behaviour is what has caused their recent defeat. If it continues, they won't recover. The entitled antics of Victoria Atkins yesterday is not a good omen.
The LIbDems, on the other hand, I think will provide a model of how to oppose with constructive suggestions and mutually respectful behaviour. I think (and hope) that Labour will respond in kind. But if the Tories act like spoiled brats, encouraged by Farage heckling from the back, then there is no hope for them.
The 2024 Tory vote is their core vote, they aren't losing any more of it or at most a trickle to the LDs. If they gain Reform votes, especially after a pact with Reform in seats where the Tories were second and the Tory and Reform combined vote was bigger than Labour they gain over 100 seats plus
I think you may have hit core membership numbers, but actually I think your core voter numbers can indeed still shrink. The Lib Dems are more likely to gain more total voters after a Parliament where they have stronger resources than ever before to out out their message. They now have resources to deploy for research that they have never had before. Unlike the Tories the Lib Dems know that no one owes them a living and their MPs are a generally impressive and highly motivated bunch.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs
I would have thought that there were two different options for the Conservatives:
1. Go right, and shore up the threat from Reform. The goal being to return them to zero MPs, and therefore to be the sole right wing party in the UK. 2. Go Central, and enter into some kind of pact with Reform.
I think the first is by far the most sensible option. The second option is absolutely fraught with danger, because there is the very real risk that Reform starts out polling you.
Not if 2 only means the Tories standing down for Reform where Reform were second and Reform standing down for the Tories where the Tories were second
Your plan has numerous problems including:
1) Conservative votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think.
2) Reform votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think
3) To get back into government the Conservatives need 300+ MPs they can rely on - Reform MPs cannot be relied upon.
Reform MPs can be relied on more than Labour MPs they would replace to vote with the Tories though
Can they ???
What will be the political views of any future potential Reform MP ?
Immigration frothing and some level of social conservatism seem likely but apart from that what ?
You only have to look at the mish-mash fantasies of the reform manifesto and the differences between that and what Reform voters actually want to see that they are utterly unreliable for any form of actual governance.
The political views of any Reform MP will certainly be closer to the ERG and right of the Tories and most Tory members than a Labour MPs
Its irrelevant.
A successful government depends on intellectual substance, hard work and a willingness to do difficult things at a cost.
And these attributes are where Reform would go missing.
To be fair to the LibDems, they were able to supply them during the coalition.
All very well but without the votes united on the right by either pact or merger with Reform the Tories ain't getting near government again under FPTP. Post Brexit the LDs are unlikely to touch the Tories with a bargepole again for a generation
That Cameron missed a generational chance to reshape our politics is certainly true. In an alternative universe, he didn’t break his promise to stay out of the AV referendum, didn’t use the coalition to cynically turn on his junior partner, and didn’t think that an EU referendum would be a surefire winner for remain.
More fundamentally, does it never occur to you that when your MPs got to the point where the judges, the BBC, the National Trust, parliamentary procedure, and our European neighbours and allies, were all painted as enemies, while the commonly accepted standards of expected behaviour from our national leaders were suddenly assumed to be of no consequence, were massive warning flags that - just maybe - your party had taken a wrong turn somewhere?
You may not have noticed all of this, but the decent voters of the Home Counties certainly did. And the hope will be that their new LibDem MPs will prove to be more effective defenders of small-c conservative England than has your own bunch of extremist right-wing wreckers.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You think that if Reform came to power, they would be libertarian rather than authoritarian?
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
What kind of authoritarian policies do you think he would implement if given the chance?
@bbcnews deliberately held back truth about dog attack story - whitewashing a family of terrorists and then butchering an IDF statement to make sure YOU never got to hear about it.
Nonetheless the argument about the omitted context is convincing. David Collier is committed to a particular view, but that (nor appeals for support) does not prevent some of his points being cogent.
The Tories hold just five seats with majorities of over 10,000. The LibDems hold 25 seats and Labour hold 115 seats with 10,000+ majorities.
The Tories are in a desperate position. How can they make it worse?
Easy. By electing Braverman or Jenrick as leader.
A quick modelling exercise on the recent results shows that if the Tories elect Braverman or Jenrick as leader and lose 10% of their support to Lab and LDs then they lose an extra 30 seats or so. But if they gain back 10% of RUF support they gain back 20 seats. It's a bit of a wash.
But I don't think the future of the Tory party depends on arithmetic. It depends much more on behaviour. Poor behaviour is what has caused their recent defeat. If it continues, they won't recover. The entitled antics of Victoria Atkins yesterday is not a good omen.
The LIbDems, on the other hand, I think will provide a model of how to oppose with constructive suggestions and mutually respectful behaviour. I think (and hope) that Labour will respond in kind. But if the Tories act like spoiled brats, encouraged by Farage heckling from the back, then there is no hope for them.
The 2024 Tory vote is their core vote, they aren't losing any more of it or at most a trickle to the LDs. If they gain Reform votes, especially after a pact with Reform in seats where the Tories were second and the Tory and Reform combined vote was bigger than Labour they gain over 100 seats plus
I think you may have hit core membership numbers, but actually I think your core voter numbers can indeed still shrink. The Lib Dems are more likely to gain more total voters after a Parliament where they have stronger resources than ever before to out out their message. They now have resources to deploy for research that they have never had before. Unlike the Tories the Lib Dems know that no one owes them a living and their MPs are a generally impressive and highly motivated bunch.
500,000 people die every year. 80% of them are the Tories core voters! They need to attract new voters aged 18 -24. I cannot see them managing to do that! Sell Telegraph shares!!
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
Although there are some honorable exceptions (RichardTyndall springs to mind, as do others), Libertarians in the UK are usually social conservatives who want their drug-or-sex-of-choice legalised
Astonishing numbers from Pew Research with Latino voters who are now:
Biden: 36 Trump:36 RFK: 24
I'm begging people to use some discernment.
RFK is not going to get anywhere near 24% with Latinos. This isn't a snipe at you William but rather at the polling companies that produce such absurd results.
I remember hearing [former chancellor] Ken Clarke being interviewed fairly recently. He was reflecting on Black Wednesday. And he said: well, it was obviously politically damaging, but the economic effects were very benign.” Goodall was on a run when listening. “I stopped in my tracks. It was not long after my grandad died and I was angry. I welled up. No, I thought, they weren’t benign. Thousands and thousands of people lost their homes.” Major political moments, Goodall understands, can be experienced differently.
By 7:00 pm that evening, Lamont announced Britain would leave the ERM and rates would remain at the new level of 12%; however, on the next day the interest rate was back to 10%.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You think that if Reform came to power, they would be libertarian rather than authoritarian?
Let’s hope that never gets put to the test!
I was careful to say Farage, rather than Reform. Anderson is a different kettle of fish.
Astonishing numbers from Pew Research with Latino voters who are now:
Biden: 36 Trump:36 RFK: 24
I'm begging people to use some discernment.
RFK is not going to get anywhere near 24% with Latinos. This isn't a snipe at you William but rather at the polling companies that produce such absurd results.
Yes, I think you have to just use any numbers for RFK as a proxy for none of the above or don't know. It's the tie between Biden and Trump that is more significant.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton had a three-to-one advantage over Trump among Latino voters on the same survey:
Astonishing numbers from Pew Research with Latino voters who are now:
Biden: 36 Trump:36 RFK: 24
I'm begging people to use some discernment.
RFK is not going to get anywhere near 24% with Latinos. This isn't a snipe at you William but rather at the polling companies that produce such absurd results.
Well, the polling companies can't just fabricate numbers because they don't think the RFK supporters will actually end up voting that way.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
What kind of authoritarian policies do you think he would implement if given the chance?
Closing down a free press, defunding organisations he disagrees with (e.g. the BBC, NHS), 10k additional prisoners, cutting funding to universities deemed to have 'political bias', increasing use of Stop and Search...
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You think that if Reform came to power, they would be libertarian rather than authoritarian?
Let’s hope that never gets put to the test!
I was careful to say Farage, rather than Reform. Anderson is a different kettle of fish.
Farage, like Johnson, simply jumped on a passing horse merely because it happened to be heading in the direction he wanted to go. Whether it will finish its run at his intended destination is another matter entirely.
"If we could unlock just 1% of the money in defined contribution schemes - and invest that in more productive assets [and] fast-growing British companies - that’d be £8bn to help finance growth and prosperity and wealth creation here in Britain. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ng5n0my0zo
Perhaps Reeves could start off by publicly investing her own money in 'productive assets'.
And then announce that all public sector pensions will henceforth be dependent upon the return on 'productive assets'.
Is the Reeves scheme markedly different from Jeremy Hunt's? I share the general scepticism that there is an untapped mass of world-beating British industry, but I get the intent.
Wasn't Hunt's an ISA ?
If so then investing would be from personal choice.
Defined contribution pensions are more towards obligatory for many people.
Now if Reeves would suggest an optional extra pension aimed at investing in UK assets and businesses then that would be worthwhile.
In fact that could be linked with putting a maximum pension cap into a 'standard' pension scheme.
Be interesting to know how many people actually taken advantage of this ISA. I haven't rushed out looking to stick any of my spare cash in it.
Zero. Just consultation so far. Didn't get launched before Mr Sunak pulled the chain on the electoral cistern. So down the toilet for now, I believe.
Was going to be 5K addition to the normal 20K pa, but spent on UK stocks and shares.
Buit thanks for mentioning it. I had clean forgotten it, and am doing my annual tax etc sort out, so good to have it checked.
I think it's quite likely ISA limit goes down to £10k from 2025 and the 'British ISA' will be dropped. Hopefully the 'Help to Buy ISA' or whatever it is which simply fuels house prices will be dropped too
As a "regular" ISA user, the annual limit is only an issue when investing a lump sum (e.g. tax-free cash from a pension ), my monthly contribution does not threaten the limit.
£20,000 is about right imo since that will mop up savings once the mortgage is paid off and the kids have left. Assuming the idea is to have people invest rather than spend their excess income on exotic holibobs and mid-life crisis sports cars.
(Archdeacon Luke is Luke Miller "Archdeacon of London, Prolocutor @Synod, Rector @bythewardrobe, Area Chaplain @SeaCadetsLondon Married to @jacquiAMiller". He'll be living round the corner from St Pauls, probably.)
I'm surprised they have been so tolerant for two years.
Also, moves are afoot by NATO etc, spearheaded by Mr Starmer, to address the "shadow tanker fleet" which is estimated to be carrying £50bn of oil for Russia per annum. Since a lot of those use Black Sea ports, I am surprised that Ukraine has not been droning the returning empties.
(Archdeacon Luke is Luke Miller "Archdeacon of London, Prolocutor @Synod, Rector @bythewardrobe, Area Chaplain @SeaCadetsLondon Married to @jacquiAMiller". He'll be living round the corner from St Pauls, probably.)
I think I will get a dog and take him for its regular walk near that bollard so he can do his business.
It is my protest against the racist Albert Memorial.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
Farage is a libertarian himself but most of his supporters aren't.
(Archdeacon Luke is Luke Miller "Archdeacon of London, Prolocutor @Synod, Rector @bythewardrobe, Area Chaplain @SeaCadetsLondon Married to @jacquiAMiller". He'll be living round the corner from St Pauls, probably.)
That photo needs a dog cocking its leg against the bollard. For scale.
(Archdeacon Luke is Luke Miller "Archdeacon of London, Prolocutor @Synod, Rector @bythewardrobe, Area Chaplain @SeaCadetsLondon Married to @jacquiAMiller ". He'll be living round the corner from St Pauls, probably.)
I'm surprised they have been so tolerant for two years.
Also, moves are afoot by NATO etc, spearheaded by Mr Starmer, to address the "shadow tanker fleet" which is estimated to be carrying £50bn of oil for Russia per annum. Since a lot of those use Black Sea ports, I am surprised that Ukraine has not been droning the returning empties.
But during Covid, he fled to his Herefordshire pile, probably breaking Covid regulations on the way.
The Housing Secretary has been accused of flouting lockdown rules again after it emerged he travelled from his London residence to his 'second' home just days after urging the nation to 'stay at home'.
Robert Jenrick, who is Tory MP for Newark in Nottinghamshire, has defended escaping 150 miles from London to his £1.1million mansion in Herefordshire, where his family are staying.
The cabinet minister said he and his wife Michal Berkner - a partner at City law firm Cooley LLP - and children consider the country retreat their family home and he had moved back there after he was no longer needed in Westminster.
Mr Jenrick also owns a £2.5million townhouse less than a mile from the Houses of Parliament while also renting a £2,000-a-month property in his constituency - which he bills to the taxpayer.
His official website does not mention his Grade I listed country house at all, instead saying: "Robert is married to Michal, and together they have three young daughters.
I remember hearing [former chancellor] Ken Clarke being interviewed fairly recently. He was reflecting on Black Wednesday. And he said: well, it was obviously politically damaging, but the economic effects were very benign.” Goodall was on a run when listening. “I stopped in my tracks. It was not long after my grandad died and I was angry. I welled up. No, I thought, they weren’t benign. Thousands and thousands of people lost their homes.” Major political moments, Goodall understands, can be experienced differently.
By 7:00 pm that evening, Lamont announced Britain would leave the ERM and rates would remain at the new level of 12%; however, on the next day the interest rate was back to 10%.
Yes, odd piece. I’m awaiting his elevation to the sainthood based on it.
The political leanings of Robbie Gibb, or implied ones are mulled over in his spat with Goodall but the fact Goodall was a labour activist is not really dwelled upon. Appoint a Tory to a major position on the BBC howls of derision. Appoint a labour activist/former labour activist like Goodall and barely a murmur although he appears thin skinned.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
What kind of authoritarian policies do you think he would implement if given the chance?
Closing down a free press, defunding organisations he disagrees with (e.g. the BBC, NHS), 10k additional prisoners, cutting funding to universities deemed to have 'political bias', increasing use of Stop and Search...
Doesn't look like defunding the NHS to me.
NHS
The NHS Needs Urgent Reform “Patients first. Rapid care. Cutting waste - an NHS to be proud of again.”
NHS PLEDGES COSTS = £17 BILLION PA REFORM UK 2024 7
Despite record extra funding in recent years, NHS healthcare outcomes have declined. While still free at the point of delivery, our healthcare needs major reforms to improve results and enjoy zero waiting lists.
CRITICAL REFORMS NEEDED IN THE FIRST 100 DAYS:
End Doctor and Nurse Shortages
All frontline NHS and social care staff to pay zero basic rate tax for 3 years. This will help retain existing staff and attract many who have left to return. End training caps for all UK medical students. Write off student fees pro rata per year over 10 years of NHS service for all doctors, nurses and medical staff.
Use Independent Healthcare Capacity
We will harness independent and not-for-profit health provision in the UK and overseas. Tax Relief of 20% on all Private Healthcare and Insurance. This will improve care for all by relieving pressure on the NHS. Those who rely on the NHS will enjoy faster, better care. Independent healthcare capacity will grow rapidly, providing competition and reducing costs. Thereafter:
Put Patients in Charge With a New NHS Voucher Scheme
NHS Patients will receive a voucher for private treatment if they can’t see a GP within 3 days. For a consultant it would be 3 weeks. For an operation, 9 weeks. Services will always be free at the point of use.
Improve Efficiency. Cut Waste and Unnecessary Managers
Operating theatres must be open on weekends. Rotas must be planned further in advance. Nail down better prices using economies of scale. Review all NHS Private Finance Contracts for significant savings potential. Charge those who fail to attend medical appointments without notice. Abolish the NHS Race and Health Observatory.
Save A&E
Cut waiting times with a campaign of ‘Pharmacy First, GP Second, A&E Last’. We will offer tax incentives for new pharmacies and those who employ more staff to assist in relieving pressure on A&E.
Excess Deaths and Vaccine Harms
Public Inquiry Excess deaths are nearly as high as they were during the Covid pandemic. Young people are over-represented.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
Farage is a libertarian himself but most of his supporters aren't.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
Farage is a libertarian himself but most of his supporters aren't.
Most 'libertarians' are not libertarians either.
There are big question marks over many 'liberals' as well.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
Farage is a libertarian himself but most of his supporters aren't.
Libertarians are not anti-immigration.
That all depends on where a person's Libertarianism fits with their position on the other two axes.
The Tories need to go on a HUNT for a new leader that will be listened to and vaguely coherent. This temptation to a bit of self indulgence just shows that they have not learned the lessons of a comprehensive defeat. The voters they lost to Labour and the Lib Dems cost far more seats than the votes lost to Reform.
I see what you did there...
He [Hunt] saw what was happening in his seat, deployed sufficient time and resources to head off the problem, and won. That's rather impressive when you think about it.
It cost him £100,000 of his own money too, iirc. Shame - from your point of view - that all the other Tory losers were not motivated to do the same....
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
Farage is a libertarian himself but most of his supporters aren't.
Most 'libertarians' are not libertarians either.
There are big question marks over many 'liberals' as well.
There's very little left to be libertarian about now that gay is actually legal, and weed de facto. Barty tries it and collides with the problem that lib about one thing (say cars) implies coercive communism about others (say private land you need for road building).
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
Try redoing the data highlighting with the Liberals/Lib Dems listed (as they claim to be) as the centre and not either the left or the right.
Especially since the LDs/Liberals have often been closer to the right than the left.
The statement “the right have never won a majority of the post war vote” would still be true.
Indeed, but neither I believe have the left which by falsely aggregating LDs into the left the chart implies they regularly have.
Oh and by falsely aggregating them the highlighting shows red as the most popular most often when I don't believe that's the case either.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
Farage is a libertarian himself but most of his supporters aren't.
Most 'libertarians' are not libertarians either.
There are big question marks over many 'liberals' as well.
There's very little left to be libertarian about now that gay is actually legal, and weed de facto. Barty tries it and collides with the problem that lib about one thing (say cars) implies coercive communism about others (say private land you need for road building).
You are joking. Try volunteering to do something and the state is crawling all over it with everything from health and safety to DBS checks.
You cant even make clothes then give them to a charity shop later because all sorts of rehulatory things.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
Farage is a libertarian himself but most of his supporters aren't.
Most 'libertarians' are not libertarians either.
There are big question marks over many 'liberals' as well.
There's very little left to be libertarian about now that gay is actually legal, and weed de facto. Barty tries it and collides with the problem that lib about one thing (say cars) implies coercive communism about others (say private land you need for road building).
You are joking. Try volunteering to do something and the state is crawling all over it with everything from health and safety to DBS checks.
You cant even make clothes then give them to a charity shop later because all sorts of rehulatory things.
Romney is too much of a fiscal conservative for the Democratic left, if he ran as an Independent though he could stop a lot of Haley voters voting for Trump by getting their support instead
Astonishing numbers from Pew Research with Latino voters who are now:
Biden: 36 Trump:36 RFK: 24
I'm begging people to use some discernment.
RFK is not going to get anywhere near 24% with Latinos. This isn't a snipe at you William but rather at the polling companies that produce such absurd results.
Yes, I think you have to just use any numbers for RFK as a proxy for none of the above or don't know. It's the tie between Biden and Trump that is more significant.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton had a three-to-one advantage over Trump among Latino voters on the same survey:
Will help Trump in Arizona and Nevada but Biden can still win the rustbelt swing states and Georgia even with those numbers as Hispanics are a tiny percentage of the population there
The Tories hold just five seats with majorities of over 10,000. The LibDems hold 25 seats and Labour hold 115 seats with 10,000+ majorities.
The Tories are in a desperate position. How can they make it worse?
Easy. By electing Braverman or Jenrick as leader.
A quick modelling exercise on the recent results shows that if the Tories elect Braverman or Jenrick as leader and lose 10% of their support to Lab and LDs then they lose an extra 30 seats or so. But if they gain back 10% of RUF support they gain back 20 seats. It's a bit of a wash.
But I don't think the future of the Tory party depends on arithmetic. It depends much more on behaviour. Poor behaviour is what has caused their recent defeat. If it continues, they won't recover. The entitled antics of Victoria Atkins yesterday is not a good omen.
The LIbDems, on the other hand, I think will provide a model of how to oppose with constructive suggestions and mutually respectful behaviour. I think (and hope) that Labour will respond in kind. But if the Tories act like spoiled brats, encouraged by Farage heckling from the back, then there is no hope for them.
The 2024 Tory vote is their core vote, they aren't losing any more of it or at most a trickle to the LDs. If they gain Reform votes, especially after a pact with Reform in seats where the Tories were second and the Tory and Reform combined vote was bigger than Labour they gain over 100 seats plus
I think you may have hit core membership numbers, but actually I think your core voter numbers can indeed still shrink. The Lib Dems are more likely to gain more total voters after a Parliament where they have stronger resources than ever before to out out their message. They now have resources to deploy for research that they have never had before. Unlike the Tories the Lib Dems know that no one owes them a living and their MPs are a generally impressive and highly motivated bunch.
500,000 people die every year. 80% of them are the Tories core voters! They need to attract new voters aged 18 -24. I cannot see them managing to do that! Sell Telegraph shares!!
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs
I would have thought that there were two different options for the Conservatives:
1. Go right, and shore up the threat from Reform. The goal being to return them to zero MPs, and therefore to be the sole right wing party in the UK. 2. Go Central, and enter into some kind of pact with Reform.
I think the first is by far the most sensible option. The second option is absolutely fraught with danger, because there is the very real risk that Reform starts out polling you.
Not if 2 only means the Tories standing down for Reform where Reform were second and Reform standing down for the Tories where the Tories were second
Your plan has numerous problems including:
1) Conservative votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think.
2) Reform votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think
3) To get back into government the Conservatives need 300+ MPs they can rely on - Reform MPs cannot be relied upon.
Reform MPs can be relied on more than Labour MPs they would replace to vote with the Tories though
Can they ???
What will be the political views of any future potential Reform MP ?
Immigration frothing and some level of social conservatism seem likely but apart from that what ?
You only have to look at the mish-mash fantasies of the reform manifesto and the differences between that and what Reform voters actually want to see that they are utterly unreliable for any form of actual governance.
The political views of any Reform MP will certainly be closer to the ERG and right of the Tories and most Tory members than a Labour MPs
Its irrelevant.
A successful government depends on intellectual substance, hard work and a willingness to do difficult things at a cost.
And these attributes are where Reform would go missing.
To be fair to the LibDems, they were able to supply them during the coalition.
All very well but without the votes united on the right by either pact or merger with Reform the Tories ain't getting near government again under FPTP. Post Brexit the LDs are unlikely to touch the Tories with a bargepole again for a generation
That Cameron missed a generational chance to reshape our politics is certainly true. In an alternative universe, he didn’t break his promise to stay out of the AV referendum, didn’t use the coalition to cynically turn on his junior partner, and didn’t think that an EU referendum would be a surefire winner for remain.
More fundamentally, does it never occur to you that when your MPs got to the point where the judges, the BBC, the National Trust, parliamentary procedure, and our European neighbours and allies, were all painted as enemies, while the commonly accepted standards of expected behaviour from our national leaders were suddenly assumed to be of no consequence, were massive warning flags that - just maybe - your party had taken a wrong turn somewhere?
You may not have noticed all of this, but the decent voters of the Home Counties certainly did. And the hope will be that their new LibDem MPs will prove to be more effective defenders of small-c conservative England than has your own bunch of extremist right-wing wreckers.
The Tories still won more South East and Home Counties MPs on July 4th than the LDs did. Just the LDs won almost all the Remain seats there and of course the Home Counties were narrowly Leave overall still in 2016 not Remain like London, just less Leave than the North, Wales and Midlands were
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
Farage is a libertarian himself but most of his supporters aren't.
Most 'libertarians' are not libertarians either.
There are big question marks over many 'liberals' as well.
There's very little left to be libertarian about now that gay is actually legal, and weed de facto. Barty tries it and collides with the problem that lib about one thing (say cars) implies coercive communism about others (say private land you need for road building).
You are joking. Try volunteering to do something and the state is crawling all over it with everything from health and safety to DBS checks.
You cant even make clothes then give them to a charity shop later because all sorts of rehulatory things.
Edge cases, the serious battles are either lost (guns and cocaine) or won (gaiety and spliffs)
Also things have non obvious consequences. Donations to charity shops mainly cause pollution in west Africa
The Tories hold just five seats with majorities of over 10,000. The LibDems hold 25 seats and Labour hold 115 seats with 10,000+ majorities.
The Tories are in a desperate position. How can they make it worse?
Easy. By electing Braverman or Jenrick as leader.
A quick modelling exercise on the recent results shows that if the Tories elect Braverman or Jenrick as leader and lose 10% of their support to Lab and LDs then they lose an extra 30 seats or so. But if they gain back 10% of RUF support they gain back 20 seats. It's a bit of a wash.
But I don't think the future of the Tory party depends on arithmetic. It depends much more on behaviour. Poor behaviour is what has caused their recent defeat. If it continues, they won't recover. The entitled antics of Victoria Atkins yesterday is not a good omen.
The LIbDems, on the other hand, I think will provide a model of how to oppose with constructive suggestions and mutually respectful behaviour. I think (and hope) that Labour will respond in kind. But if the Tories act like spoiled brats, encouraged by Farage heckling from the back, then there is no hope for them.
The 2024 Tory vote is their core vote, they aren't losing any more of it or at most a trickle to the LDs. If they gain Reform votes, especially after a pact with Reform in seats where the Tories were second and the Tory and Reform combined vote was bigger than Labour they gain over 100 seats plus
I think you may have hit core membership numbers, but actually I think your core voter numbers can indeed still shrink. The Lib Dems are more likely to gain more total voters after a Parliament where they have stronger resources than ever before to out out their message. They now have resources to deploy for research that they have never had before. Unlike the Tories the Lib Dems know that no one owes them a living and their MPs are a generally impressive and highly motivated bunch.
500,000 people die every year. 80% of them are the Tories core voters! They need to attract new voters aged 18 -24. I cannot see them managing to do that! Sell Telegraph shares!!
Well, quite
I will certainly never vote Conservative again until they clean out the loons like Braverman, Patel, Jenrick, etc.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs
I would have thought that there were two different options for the Conservatives:
1. Go right, and shore up the threat from Reform. The goal being to return them to zero MPs, and therefore to be the sole right wing party in the UK. 2. Go Central, and enter into some kind of pact with Reform.
I think the first is by far the most sensible option. The second option is absolutely fraught with danger, because there is the very real risk that Reform starts out polling you.
Not if 2 only means the Tories standing down for Reform where Reform were second and Reform standing down for the Tories where the Tories were second
Your plan has numerous problems including:
1) Conservative votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think.
2) Reform votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think
3) To get back into government the Conservatives need 300+ MPs they can rely on - Reform MPs cannot be relied upon.
Reform MPs can be relied on more than Labour MPs they would replace to vote with the Tories though
Can they ???
What will be the political views of any future potential Reform MP ?
Immigration frothing and some level of social conservatism seem likely but apart from that what ?
You only have to look at the mish-mash fantasies of the reform manifesto and the differences between that and what Reform voters actually want to see that they are utterly unreliable for any form of actual governance.
The political views of any Reform MP will certainly be closer to the ERG and right of the Tories and most Tory members than a Labour MPs
Its irrelevant.
A successful government depends on intellectual substance, hard work and a willingness to do difficult things at a cost.
And these attributes are where Reform would go missing.
To be fair to the LibDems, they were able to supply them during the coalition.
All very well but without the votes united on the right by either pact or merger with Reform the Tories ain't getting near government again under FPTP. Post Brexit the LDs are unlikely to touch the Tories with a bargepole again for a generation
That Cameron missed a generational chance to reshape our politics is certainly true. In an alternative universe, he didn’t break his promise to stay out of the AV referendum, didn’t use the coalition to cynically turn on his junior partner, and didn’t think that an EU referendum would be a surefire winner for remain.
More fundamentally, does it never occur to you that when your MPs got to the point where the judges, the BBC, the National Trust, parliamentary procedure, and our European neighbours and allies, were all painted as enemies, while the commonly accepted standards of expected behaviour from our national leaders were suddenly assumed to be of no consequence, were massive warning flags that - just maybe - your party had taken a wrong turn somewhere?
You may not have noticed all of this, but the decent voters of the Home Counties certainly did. And the hope will be that their new LibDem MPs will prove to be more effective defenders of small-c conservative England than has your own bunch of extremist right-wing wreckers.
The Tories still won more South East and Home Counties MPs on July 4th than the LDs did. Just the LDs won all the Remain seats except Hunt's seat and of course the Home Counties were narrowly Leave overall still in 2016 not Remain like London, just less Leave than the North, Wales and Midlands were
Labour won a plurality of seats in every single English region, though
The Tories hold just five seats with majorities of over 10,000. The LibDems hold 25 seats and Labour hold 115 seats with 10,000+ majorities.
The Tories are in a desperate position. How can they make it worse?
Easy. By electing Braverman or Jenrick as leader.
A quick modelling exercise on the recent results shows that if the Tories elect Braverman or Jenrick as leader and lose 10% of their support to Lab and LDs then they lose an extra 30 seats or so. But if they gain back 10% of RUF support they gain back 20 seats. It's a bit of a wash.
But I don't think the future of the Tory party depends on arithmetic. It depends much more on behaviour. Poor behaviour is what has caused their recent defeat. If it continues, they won't recover. The entitled antics of Victoria Atkins yesterday is not a good omen.
The LIbDems, on the other hand, I think will provide a model of how to oppose with constructive suggestions and mutually respectful behaviour. I think (and hope) that Labour will respond in kind. But if the Tories act like spoiled brats, encouraged by Farage heckling from the back, then there is no hope for them.
The 2024 Tory vote is their core vote, they aren't losing any more of it or at most a trickle to the LDs. If they gain Reform votes, especially after a pact with Reform in seats where the Tories were second and the Tory and Reform combined vote was bigger than Labour they gain over 100 seats plus
I think you may have hit core membership numbers, but actually I think your core voter numbers can indeed still shrink. The Lib Dems are more likely to gain more total voters after a Parliament where they have stronger resources than ever before to out out their message. They now have resources to deploy for research that they have never had before. Unlike the Tories the Lib Dems know that no one owes them a living and their MPs are a generally impressive and highly motivated bunch.
500,000 people die every year. 80% of them are the Tories core voters! They need to attract new voters aged 18 -24. I cannot see them managing to do that! Sell Telegraph shares!!
Well, quite
I will certainly never vote Conservative again until they clean out the loons like Braverman, Patel, Jenrick, etc.
I think the chances are pretty high that they will not be able to reform themselves before the Lib Dems come and eat their lunch.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Good morning
And so ends the conservative party
What utter rubbish. 38% of voters voted for the Tories and Reform on July 4th, more than the 33% who voted for Labour
Time for my regular reminder that the right have never won a majority of the post-war vote:
In 2015 the DUP got 0.6% and the UUP 0.4%. So the combined right of centre Tory, UKIP, DUP and UUP UK voteshare was 50.4% and a majority. Plus the 8% who voted LD were voting for an Orange Book, free market, Cleggite Liberal party too
I concede on 2015 with the DUP/UUP vote. I deliberately left nationalists and the NI vote out but yes, the DUP/UUP are clearly of the right.
Personally, I'm not going to accept that the LDs have ever been right of centre but I acknowledge that it's in the eye of the beholder to some extent.
Anyway, to correct my earlier assertion: "The right have only once won a majority of the post-war vote".
The left have never won a majority of the post war vote, not even once like the right, if we take the LDs, SDP/Alliance and Liberals as centre not right nor left then.
Closest they got was 48.8% for Attlee's Labour in 1951
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate. That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
That's hardly surprising - the questions do not test a left/right dichotomy.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Three axes (at least):
Economic left-right Social liberal-conservative Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
You may be in for a nasty shock if you think Farage is Libertarian on the Authoritarian-Libertarian scale.
Farage is a libertarian himself but most of his supporters aren't.
Most 'libertarians' are not libertarians either.
There are big question marks over many 'liberals' as well.
There's very little left to be libertarian about now that gay is actually legal, and weed de facto. Barty tries it and collides with the problem that lib about one thing (say cars) implies coercive communism about others (say private land you need for road building).
You are joking. Try volunteering to do something and the state is crawling all over it with everything from health and safety to DBS checks.
You cant even make clothes then give them to a charity shop later because all sorts of rehulatory things.
Edge cases, the serious battles are either lost (guns and cocaine) or won (gaiety and spliffs)
Also things have non obvious consequences. Donations to charity shops mainly cause pollution in west Africa
And dent the profits of clothes selling multinationals who absolutely love multiple regulations.
Donations to charity shops also clothe half of west Africa.
As to the serious battles being lost and won. Wait until the government cant shift enough gilts to fund the Welfare State before saying that.
And a debate about why excess waste clothes get shipped abroad as the shoddy and mungo trade has gone would be more interesting than the ad-hom another poster responded with.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs
I would have thought that there were two different options for the Conservatives:
1. Go right, and shore up the threat from Reform. The goal being to return them to zero MPs, and therefore to be the sole right wing party in the UK. 2. Go Central, and enter into some kind of pact with Reform.
I think the first is by far the most sensible option. The second option is absolutely fraught with danger, because there is the very real risk that Reform starts out polling you.
Not if 2 only means the Tories standing down for Reform where Reform were second and Reform standing down for the Tories where the Tories were second
Your plan has numerous problems including:
1) Conservative votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think.
2) Reform votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think
3) To get back into government the Conservatives need 300+ MPs they can rely on - Reform MPs cannot be relied upon.
Reform MPs can be relied on more than Labour MPs they would replace to vote with the Tories though
Can they ???
What will be the political views of any future potential Reform MP ?
Immigration frothing and some level of social conservatism seem likely but apart from that what ?
You only have to look at the mish-mash fantasies of the reform manifesto and the differences between that and what Reform voters actually want to see that they are utterly unreliable for any form of actual governance.
The political views of any Reform MP will certainly be closer to the ERG and right of the Tories and most Tory members than a Labour MPs
Its irrelevant.
A successful government depends on intellectual substance, hard work and a willingness to do difficult things at a cost.
And these attributes are where Reform would go missing.
To be fair to the LibDems, they were able to supply them during the coalition.
All very well but without the votes united on the right by either pact or merger with Reform the Tories ain't getting near government again under FPTP. Post Brexit the LDs are unlikely to touch the Tories with a bargepole again for a generation
That Cameron missed a generational chance to reshape our politics is certainly true. In an alternative universe, he didn’t break his promise to stay out of the AV referendum, didn’t use the coalition to cynically turn on his junior partner, and didn’t think that an EU referendum would be a surefire winner for remain.
More fundamentally, does it never occur to you that when your MPs got to the point where the judges, the BBC, the National Trust, parliamentary procedure, and our European neighbours and allies, were all painted as enemies, while the commonly accepted standards of expected behaviour from our national leaders were suddenly assumed to be of no consequence, were massive warning flags that - just maybe - your party had taken a wrong turn somewhere?
You may not have noticed all of this, but the decent voters of the Home Counties certainly did. And the hope will be that their new LibDem MPs will prove to be more effective defenders of small-c conservative England than has your own bunch of extremist right-wing wreckers.
The Tories still won more South East and Home Counties MPs on July 4th than the LDs did. Just the LDs won almost all the Remain seats there and of course the Home Counties were narrowly Leave overall still in 2016 not Remain like London, just less Leave than the North, Wales and Midlands were
Yes indeed. The recent election was a massive victory for the Conservatives.
Not!
You just cannot admit it, can you? Your party has become so extreme that a no-charisma manager like Starmer was able to beat you using a manifesto that was about as exciting as reading a loo roll.
Hmmm. Quad bikes and AT buggies at 1am in Birmingham.
I'm really not sure what's going on, and why enforcement is impossible; the rules and guidance around tactical contact have been in place for years. Teenage hooligans out for kicks, or something more serious? I don't thin drug distributors would be seeking such attention.
(But it's amusing how the tweeter thinks that "cars" can be "terrorised".)
I don't understand England tactics of having the fastest bowler in the world and not giving him the new ball. Nobody wants to face 95mph, they certainly don't want to face it cold.
Hmmm. Quad bikes and AT buggies at 1am in Birmingham.
I'm really not sure what's going on, and why enforcement is impossible; the rules and guidance around tactical contact have been in place for years. Teenage hooligans out for kicks, or something more serious? I don't thin drug distributors would be seeking such attention.
(But it's amusing how the tweeter thinks that "cars" can be "terrorised".)
Thank you all for the well wishes, we’ve been blown away by the sheer number of them!
Unfortunately things have taken a turn for the worse and my Father has developed pneumonia and is unable to eat or drink so is back in hospital on oxygen and a feeding tube for the foreseeable.
Thank you all for the well wishes, we’ve been blown away by the sheer number of them!
Unfortunately things have taken a turn for the worse and my Father has developed pneumonia and is unable to eat or drink so is back in hospital on oxygen and a feeding tube for the foreseeable.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs
I would have thought that there were two different options for the Conservatives:
1. Go right, and shore up the threat from Reform. The goal being to return them to zero MPs, and therefore to be the sole right wing party in the UK. 2. Go Central, and enter into some kind of pact with Reform.
I think the first is by far the most sensible option. The second option is absolutely fraught with danger, because there is the very real risk that Reform starts out polling you.
Not if 2 only means the Tories standing down for Reform where Reform were second and Reform standing down for the Tories where the Tories were second
Your plan has numerous problems including:
1) Conservative votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think.
2) Reform votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think
3) To get back into government the Conservatives need 300+ MPs they can rely on - Reform MPs cannot be relied upon.
Reform MPs can be relied on more than Labour MPs they would replace to vote with the Tories though
Can they ???
What will be the political views of any future potential Reform MP ?
Immigration frothing and some level of social conservatism seem likely but apart from that what ?
You only have to look at the mish-mash fantasies of the reform manifesto and the differences between that and what Reform voters actually want to see that they are utterly unreliable for any form of actual governance.
The political views of any Reform MP will certainly be closer to the ERG and right of the Tories and most Tory members than a Labour MPs
Its irrelevant.
A successful government depends on intellectual substance, hard work and a willingness to do difficult things at a cost.
And these attributes are where Reform would go missing.
To be fair to the LibDems, they were able to supply them during the coalition.
All very well but without the votes united on the right by either pact or merger with Reform the Tories ain't getting near government again under FPTP. Post Brexit the LDs are unlikely to touch the Tories with a bargepole again for a generation
That Cameron missed a generational chance to reshape our politics is certainly true. In an alternative universe, he didn’t break his promise to stay out of the AV referendum, didn’t use the coalition to cynically turn on his junior partner, and didn’t think that an EU referendum would be a surefire winner for remain.
More fundamentally, does it never occur to you that when your MPs got to the point where the judges, the BBC, the National Trust, parliamentary procedure, and our European neighbours and allies, were all painted as enemies, while the commonly accepted standards of expected behaviour from our national leaders were suddenly assumed to be of no consequence, were massive warning flags that - just maybe - your party had taken a wrong turn somewhere?
You may not have noticed all of this, but the decent voters of the Home Counties certainly did. And the hope will be that their new LibDem MPs will prove to be more effective defenders of small-c conservative England than has your own bunch of extremist right-wing wreckers.
The Tories still won more South East and Home Counties MPs on July 4th than the LDs did. Just the LDs won almost all the Remain seats there and of course the Home Counties were narrowly Leave overall still in 2016 not Remain like London, just less Leave than the North, Wales and Midlands were
Yes indeed. The recent election was a massive victory for the Conservatives.
Not!
You just cannot admit it, can you? Your party has become so extreme that a no-charisma manager like Starmer was able to beat you using a manifesto that was about as exciting as reading a loo roll.
You are part of the problem.
It's not the extremism that was the problem. The Conservatives won in 2019 and were ahead for much of the start of the Parliament.
It was the perceived incompetence after the Truss budget. That turned normal mid-term blues into a catastrophe.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs
I would have thought that there were two different options for the Conservatives:
1. Go right, and shore up the threat from Reform. The goal being to return them to zero MPs, and therefore to be the sole right wing party in the UK. 2. Go Central, and enter into some kind of pact with Reform.
I think the first is by far the most sensible option. The second option is absolutely fraught with danger, because there is the very real risk that Reform starts out polling you.
Not if 2 only means the Tories standing down for Reform where Reform were second and Reform standing down for the Tories where the Tories were second
Your plan has numerous problems including:
1) Conservative votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think.
2) Reform votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think
3) To get back into government the Conservatives need 300+ MPs they can rely on - Reform MPs cannot be relied upon.
Reform MPs can be relied on more than Labour MPs they would replace to vote with the Tories though
Can they ???
What will be the political views of any future potential Reform MP ?
Immigration frothing and some level of social conservatism seem likely but apart from that what ?
You only have to look at the mish-mash fantasies of the reform manifesto and the differences between that and what Reform voters actually want to see that they are utterly unreliable for any form of actual governance.
The political views of any Reform MP will certainly be closer to the ERG and right of the Tories and most Tory members than a Labour MPs
Its irrelevant.
A successful government depends on intellectual substance, hard work and a willingness to do difficult things at a cost.
And these attributes are where Reform would go missing.
To be fair to the LibDems, they were able to supply them during the coalition.
All very well but without the votes united on the right by either pact or merger with Reform the Tories ain't getting near government again under FPTP. Post Brexit the LDs are unlikely to touch the Tories with a bargepole again for a generation
That Cameron missed a generational chance to reshape our politics is certainly true. In an alternative universe, he didn’t break his promise to stay out of the AV referendum, didn’t use the coalition to cynically turn on his junior partner, and didn’t think that an EU referendum would be a surefire winner for remain.
More fundamentally, does it never occur to you that when your MPs got to the point where the judges, the BBC, the National Trust, parliamentary procedure, and our European neighbours and allies, were all painted as enemies, while the commonly accepted standards of expected behaviour from our national leaders were suddenly assumed to be of no consequence, were massive warning flags that - just maybe - your party had taken a wrong turn somewhere?
You may not have noticed all of this, but the decent voters of the Home Counties certainly did. And the hope will be that their new LibDem MPs will prove to be more effective defenders of small-c conservative England than has your own bunch of extremist right-wing wreckers.
The Tories still won more South East and Home Counties MPs on July 4th than the LDs did. Just the LDs won almost all the Remain seats there and of course the Home Counties were narrowly Leave overall still in 2016 not Remain like London, just less Leave than the North, Wales and Midlands were
Yes indeed. The recent election was a massive victory for the Conservatives.
Not!
You just cannot admit it, can you? Your party has become so extreme that a no-charisma manager like Starmer was able to beat you using a manifesto that was about as exciting as reading a loo roll.
You are part of the problem.
Just 33% voted for Starmer, even fewer than voted for Corbyn in 2017, Blair in 2005 or Kinnock in 1992.
It was Tory votes lost to Reform that won Labour so many seats under FPTP not a massive rise in the Labour vote
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs
I would have thought that there were two different options for the Conservatives:
1. Go right, and shore up the threat from Reform. The goal being to return them to zero MPs, and therefore to be the sole right wing party in the UK. 2. Go Central, and enter into some kind of pact with Reform.
I think the first is by far the most sensible option. The second option is absolutely fraught with danger, because there is the very real risk that Reform starts out polling you.
Not if 2 only means the Tories standing down for Reform where Reform were second and Reform standing down for the Tories where the Tories were second
Your plan has numerous problems including:
1) Conservative votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think.
2) Reform votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think
3) To get back into government the Conservatives need 300+ MPs they can rely on - Reform MPs cannot be relied upon.
Reform MPs can be relied on more than Labour MPs they would replace to vote with the Tories though
Can they ???
What will be the political views of any future potential Reform MP ?
Immigration frothing and some level of social conservatism seem likely but apart from that what ?
You only have to look at the mish-mash fantasies of the reform manifesto and the differences between that and what Reform voters actually want to see that they are utterly unreliable for any form of actual governance.
The political views of any Reform MP will certainly be closer to the ERG and right of the Tories and most Tory members than a Labour MPs
Its irrelevant.
A successful government depends on intellectual substance, hard work and a willingness to do difficult things at a cost.
And these attributes are where Reform would go missing.
To be fair to the LibDems, they were able to supply them during the coalition.
All very well but without the votes united on the right by either pact or merger with Reform the Tories ain't getting near government again under FPTP. Post Brexit the LDs are unlikely to touch the Tories with a bargepole again for a generation
That Cameron missed a generational chance to reshape our politics is certainly true. In an alternative universe, he didn’t break his promise to stay out of the AV referendum, didn’t use the coalition to cynically turn on his junior partner, and didn’t think that an EU referendum would be a surefire winner for remain.
More fundamentally, does it never occur to you that when your MPs got to the point where the judges, the BBC, the National Trust, parliamentary procedure, and our European neighbours and allies, were all painted as enemies, while the commonly accepted standards of expected behaviour from our national leaders were suddenly assumed to be of no consequence, were massive warning flags that - just maybe - your party had taken a wrong turn somewhere?
You may not have noticed all of this, but the decent voters of the Home Counties certainly did. And the hope will be that their new LibDem MPs will prove to be more effective defenders of small-c conservative England than has your own bunch of extremist right-wing wreckers.
The Tories still won more South East and Home Counties MPs on July 4th than the LDs did. Just the LDs won almost all the Remain seats there and of course the Home Counties were narrowly Leave overall still in 2016 not Remain like London, just less Leave than the North, Wales and Midlands were
Yes indeed. The recent election was a massive victory for the Conservatives.
Not!
You just cannot admit it, can you? Your party has become so extreme that a no-charisma manager like Starmer was able to beat you using a manifesto that was about as exciting as reading a loo roll.
You are part of the problem.
They are not extreme, they are believers in nothing apart from gaining and staying in power and will junk any doctrine, philosophy and people who get in the way of them doing that.
The Tories hold just five seats with majorities of over 10,000. The LibDems hold 25 seats and Labour hold 115 seats with 10,000+ majorities.
The Tories are in a desperate position. How can they make it worse?
Easy. By electing Braverman or Jenrick as leader.
A quick modelling exercise on the recent results shows that if the Tories elect Braverman or Jenrick as leader and lose 10% of their support to Lab and LDs then they lose an extra 30 seats or so. But if they gain back 10% of RUF support they gain back 20 seats. It's a bit of a wash.
But I don't think the future of the Tory party depends on arithmetic. It depends much more on behaviour. Poor behaviour is what has caused their recent defeat. If it continues, they won't recover. The entitled antics of Victoria Atkins yesterday is not a good omen.
The LIbDems, on the other hand, I think will provide a model of how to oppose with constructive suggestions and mutually respectful behaviour. I think (and hope) that Labour will respond in kind. But if the Tories act like spoiled brats, encouraged by Farage heckling from the back, then there is no hope for them.
The 2024 Tory vote is their core vote, they aren't losing any more of it or at most a trickle to the LDs. If they gain Reform votes, especially after a pact with Reform in seats where the Tories were second and the Tory and Reform combined vote was bigger than Labour they gain over 100 seats plus
I think you may have hit core membership numbers, but actually I think your core voter numbers can indeed still shrink. The Lib Dems are more likely to gain more total voters after a Parliament where they have stronger resources than ever before to out out their message. They now have resources to deploy for research that they have never had before. Unlike the Tories the Lib Dems know that no one owes them a living and their MPs are a generally impressive and highly motivated bunch.
500,000 people die every year. 80% of them are the Tories core voters! They need to attract new voters aged 18 -24. I cannot see them managing to do that! Sell Telegraph shares!!
Well, quite
I will certainly never vote Conservative again until they clean out the loons like Braverman, Patel, Jenrick, etc.
I think the chances are pretty high that they will not be able to reform themselves before the Lib Dems come and eat their lunch.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs
I would have thought that there were two different options for the Conservatives:
1. Go right, and shore up the threat from Reform. The goal being to return them to zero MPs, and therefore to be the sole right wing party in the UK. 2. Go Central, and enter into some kind of pact with Reform.
I think the first is by far the most sensible option. The second option is absolutely fraught with danger, because there is the very real risk that Reform starts out polling you.
Not if 2 only means the Tories standing down for Reform where Reform were second and Reform standing down for the Tories where the Tories were second
Your plan has numerous problems including:
1) Conservative votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think.
2) Reform votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think
3) To get back into government the Conservatives need 300+ MPs they can rely on - Reform MPs cannot be relied upon.
Reform MPs can be relied on more than Labour MPs they would replace to vote with the Tories though
Can they ???
What will be the political views of any future potential Reform MP ?
Immigration frothing and some level of social conservatism seem likely but apart from that what ?
You only have to look at the mish-mash fantasies of the reform manifesto and the differences between that and what Reform voters actually want to see that they are utterly unreliable for any form of actual governance.
The political views of any Reform MP will certainly be closer to the ERG and right of the Tories and most Tory members than a Labour MPs
Its irrelevant.
A successful government depends on intellectual substance, hard work and a willingness to do difficult things at a cost.
And these attributes are where Reform would go missing.
To be fair to the LibDems, they were able to supply them during the coalition.
All very well but without the votes united on the right by either pact or merger with Reform the Tories ain't getting near government again under FPTP. Post Brexit the LDs are unlikely to touch the Tories with a bargepole again for a generation
That Cameron missed a generational chance to reshape our politics is certainly true. In an alternative universe, he didn’t break his promise to stay out of the AV referendum, didn’t use the coalition to cynically turn on his junior partner, and didn’t think that an EU referendum would be a surefire winner for remain.
More fundamentally, does it never occur to you that when your MPs got to the point where the judges, the BBC, the National Trust, parliamentary procedure, and our European neighbours and allies, were all painted as enemies, while the commonly accepted standards of expected behaviour from our national leaders were suddenly assumed to be of no consequence, were massive warning flags that - just maybe - your party had taken a wrong turn somewhere?
You may not have noticed all of this, but the decent voters of the Home Counties certainly did. And the hope will be that their new LibDem MPs will prove to be more effective defenders of small-c conservative England than has your own bunch of extremist right-wing wreckers.
The Tories still won more South East and Home Counties MPs on July 4th than the LDs did. Just the LDs won almost all the Remain seats there and of course the Home Counties were narrowly Leave overall still in 2016 not Remain like London, just less Leave than the North, Wales and Midlands were
OK, so if you don't want to engage brain, you and your buddies keep on attacking highly regarded British institutions, and see where it gets you....?
Comments
https://x.com/TypeForVictory/status/1814654140443717985
The answers do not really suggest a left/right dichotomy in the electorate.
That dichotomy is probably far more of an artefact of FPTP.
https://www.gov.uk/help-to-buy-isa
"If you already have a Help to Buy ISA
You can pay in up to £200 each month.
The government will top up your savings by 25% (up to £3,000) when you buy your first home.
If you are buying with someone who also has a Help to Buy ISA, both of you will get the 25% bonus.
You can pay into the ISA until November 2029. You can claim the 25% bonus until November 2030."
That’s hardly an endorsement of the membership’s judgement.
Although given that the average Tory member is now aged over 70, maybe it was an optimal play from their own perspective?
The Palace of Westminster is a monstrous carbuncle.
However, since the emergence of democracy in this country and most others voters have been offered a choice between what we would broadly say is left or right.
Sure, the whole political window has moved to the left over the years, particularly socially but also economically, but within the window the main division has always been and continues to be left v. right.
Telegraph is way overboard here.
I find the auto-lobotomies imposed on anyone who writes for the Telegraph offensive.
More fundamentally, does it never occur to you that when your MPs got to the point where the judges, the BBC, the National Trust, parliamentary procedure, and our European neighbours and allies, were all painted as enemies, while the commonly accepted standards of expected behaviour from our national leaders were suddenly assumed to be of no consequence, were massive warning flags that - just maybe - your party had taken a wrong turn somewhere?
You may not have noticed all of this, but the decent voters of the Home Counties certainly did. And the hope will be that their new LibDem MPs will prove to be more effective defenders of small-c conservative England than has your own bunch of extremist right-wing wreckers.
Economic left-right
Social liberal-conservative
Authoritarian-Libertarian
I'm essentially a 1,1,1
Farage is a 2,2,2
This time as a shit-hole apparently.
https://x.com/GerryHassan/status/1814999726695030809
Let’s hope that never gets put to the test!
Astonishing numbers from Pew Research with Latino voters who are now:
Biden: 36
Trump:36
RFK: 24
RFK is not going to get anywhere near 24% with Latinos. This isn't a snipe at you William but rather at the polling companies that produce such absurd results.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/21/nobody-can-be-entirely-impartial-lewis-goodall-on-poverty-politics-and-the-bbc
I remember hearing [former chancellor] Ken Clarke being interviewed fairly recently. He was reflecting on Black Wednesday. And he said: well, it was obviously politically damaging, but the economic effects were very benign.” Goodall was on a run when listening. “I stopped in my tracks. It was not long after my grandad died and I was angry. I welled up. No, I thought, they weren’t benign. Thousands and thousands of people lost their homes.” Major political moments, Goodall understands, can be experienced differently.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday
By 7:00 pm that evening, Lamont announced Britain would leave the ERM and rates would remain at the new level of 12%; however, on the next day the interest rate was back to 10%.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton had a three-to-one advantage over Trump among Latino voters on the same survey:
https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2016/10/11/the-latino-vote-in-the-2016-presidential-election/
“ I ordered the painting over of those welcoming cartoon murals for the refugee kids because I’m a loathsome soulless cxnt !
That's our job.
Hungary facing fuel crisis as Ukraine turns up heat on Russian oil supplies
Sky-high prices and electricity shortages could hit Hungarians within “weeks” after Kyiv imposed a partial ban on Russian oil passing through its territory.
https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-fuel-crisis-ukraine-sanctions-russian-oil-imports-lukoil-central-europe/
The average mortgage repayment is £1,300 a month or £16,000-ish a year.
https://www.finder.com/uk/mortgages/mortgage-statistics
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_five_live_sports_extra
This is the best one - The King Charles III Bollard.
God Save The King !!
https://x.com/ArchdeaconLuke/status/1815004887534432767
(Archdeacon Luke is Luke Miller "Archdeacon of London, Prolocutor @Synod, Rector @bythewardrobe, Area Chaplain @SeaCadetsLondon Married to @jacquiAMiller". He'll be living round the corner from St Pauls, probably.)
Also, moves are afoot by NATO etc, spearheaded by Mr Starmer, to address the "shadow tanker fleet" which is estimated to be carrying £50bn of oil for Russia per annum. Since a lot of those use Black Sea ports, I am surprised that Ukraine has not been droning the returning empties.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-18/europe-agrees-new-crackdown-on-russian-oil-tanker-shadow-fleet
It is my protest against the racist Albert Memorial.
And an appearance in James Bond and Dr Who.
Evidently Orban thought he didn’t need to.
thinkingforgetful man's Conservative.In his Telegraph puff piece, Jenrick waxes lyrical about his constituency home:-
He insists this is the place he regards as his home, and that he breathes “a sigh of relief” every time he gets off the train at Newark Northgate station.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/20/robert-jenrick-interview-right-wing-views/
But during Covid, he fled to his Herefordshire pile, probably breaking Covid regulations on the way.
The Housing Secretary has been accused of flouting lockdown rules again after it emerged he travelled from his London residence to his 'second' home just days after urging the nation to 'stay at home'.
Robert Jenrick, who is Tory MP for Newark in Nottinghamshire, has defended escaping 150 miles from London to his £1.1million mansion in Herefordshire, where his family are staying.
The cabinet minister said he and his wife Michal Berkner - a partner at City law firm Cooley LLP - and children consider the country retreat their family home and he had moved back there after he was no longer needed in Westminster.
Mr Jenrick also owns a £2.5million townhouse less than a mile from the Houses of Parliament while also renting a £2,000-a-month property in his constituency - which he bills to the taxpayer.
His official website does not mention his Grade I listed country house at all, instead saying: "Robert is married to Michal, and together they have three young daughters.
"They live in Southwell near Newark, and in London."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/cabinet-minister-robert-jenrick-breaks-21844275
A McDonalds bag which turns into a table when you put it on a bollard.
https://x.com/WorldBollard/status/1813607709411095015
The political leanings of Robbie Gibb, or implied ones are mulled over in his spat with Goodall but the fact Goodall was a labour activist is not really dwelled upon. Appoint a Tory to a major position on the BBC howls of derision. Appoint a labour activist/former labour activist like Goodall and barely a murmur although he appears thin skinned.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/article/2024/jul/21/bbc-tory-witch-hunt-lewis-goodall-newsnight-journalist
NHS
The NHS Needs Urgent Reform
“Patients first.
Rapid care.
Cutting waste -
an NHS to be
proud of
again.”
NHS PLEDGES COSTS
= £17 BILLION PA
REFORM UK 2024 7
Despite record extra funding in
recent years, NHS healthcare
outcomes have declined. While
still free at the point of delivery,
our healthcare needs major
reforms to improve results and
enjoy zero waiting lists.
CRITICAL REFORMS NEEDED IN THE
FIRST 100 DAYS:
End Doctor and Nurse Shortages
All frontline NHS and social care staff to pay zero
basic rate tax for 3 years. This will help retain existing
staff and attract many who have left to return. End
training caps for all UK medical students. Write off
student fees pro rata per year over 10 years of NHS
service for all doctors, nurses and medical staff.
Use Independent Healthcare Capacity
We will harness independent and not-for-profit
health provision in the UK and overseas.
Tax Relief of 20% on all Private Healthcare
and Insurance. This will improve care for all by relieving pressure
on the NHS. Those who rely on the NHS will enjoy
faster, better care. Independent healthcare capacity
will grow rapidly, providing competition and
reducing costs.
Thereafter:
Put Patients in Charge With a New NHS
Voucher Scheme
NHS Patients will receive a voucher for private
treatment if they can’t see a GP within 3 days.
For a consultant it would be 3 weeks. For an
operation, 9 weeks. Services will always be free
at the point of use.
Improve Efficiency. Cut Waste and
Unnecessary Managers
Operating theatres must be open on weekends.
Rotas must be planned further in advance. Nail
down better prices using economies of scale.
Review all NHS Private Finance Contracts for
significant savings potential. Charge those who fail
to attend medical appointments without notice.
Abolish the NHS Race and Health Observatory.
Save A&E
Cut waiting times with a campaign of ‘Pharmacy
First, GP Second, A&E Last’. We will offer tax
incentives for new pharmacies and those who
employ more staff to assist in relieving pressure
on A&E.
Excess Deaths and Vaccine Harms
Public Inquiry
Excess deaths are nearly as high as they were
during the Covid pandemic. Young people are
over-represented.
Might have been better if they'd made it a token payment, such as £2.
I don't think it's worth going to Nottingham.....
That's the sort of thing that gets you on the nonce jotter.
Inject them directly into my veins.
There are big question marks over many 'liberals' as well.
...
The papers show the FBI had been told the Duke of Edinburgh was personally 'involved' with Christine Keeler and Mandy Rice-Davies, the two women at the centre of the sex scandal that brought down the government.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13655375/Prince-Philip-named-secret-FBI-documents-Profumo-affair.html
The Crown scene of Prince Philip & Sir Anthony Blunt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaFM9F4tW2s
Iain Dale: "I wonder when she [Suella Braverman] mentioned the word cranks, whether she was actually looking in the mirror at the time."
https://x.com/GleraVista/status/1815021782954324470
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/21/opinion/biden-west-wing-aaron-sorkin.html
Oh and by falsely aggregating them the highlighting shows red as the most popular most often when I don't believe that's the case either.
You cant even make clothes then give them to a charity shop later because all sorts of rehulatory things.
No wonders he's such good mates with Max Verstappen.
Romney is too much of a fiscal conservative for the Democratic left, if he ran as an Independent though he could stop a lot of Haley voters voting for Trump by getting their support instead
Max Verstappen having a meltdown and his engieneer telling him to stop talking shite.
He’s faster than Piastri. But really he ought to have let him through, and then overtaken him again.
Bad management by McLaren, though.
They should have given him the hard word right at the start.
Also, a shit way to take your first win.
Also things have non obvious consequences. Donations to charity shops mainly cause pollution in west Africa
https://x.com/bmet7/status/1815032760173474131
Donations to charity shops also clothe half of west Africa.
As to the serious battles being lost and won. Wait until the government cant shift enough gilts to fund the Welfare State before saying that.
And a debate about why excess waste clothes get shipped abroad as the shoddy and mungo trade has gone would be more interesting than the ad-hom another poster responded with.
Not!
You just cannot admit it, can you? Your party has become so extreme that a no-charisma manager like Starmer was able to beat you using a manifesto that was about as exciting as reading a loo roll.
You are part of the problem.
I'm really not sure what's going on, and why enforcement is impossible; the rules and guidance around tactical contact have been in place for years. Teenage hooligans out for kicks, or something more serious? I don't thin drug distributors would be seeking such attention.
(But it's amusing how the tweeter thinks that "cars" can be "terrorised".)
https://x.com/ShaunInBrum/status/1814459010470555952
I backed that, and didn't tip due to instant buyer's remorse. Still a green weekend, though, for once.
Thank you all for the well wishes, we’ve been blown away by the sheer number of them!
Unfortunately things have taken a turn for the worse and my Father has developed pneumonia and is unable to eat or drink so is back in hospital on oxygen and a feeding tube for the foreseeable.
https://x.com/GeoffreyBoycott/status/1815036416046375232
It was the perceived incompetence after the Truss budget. That turned normal mid-term blues into a catastrophe.
It was Tory votes lost to Reform that won Labour so many seats under FPTP not a massive rise in the Labour vote
Two weeks ago it caught up with them.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/k7wa8a/the-war-on-urban-dirt-biking
https://medium.com/@rkilner/analysing-the-uks-2024-election-3fc186f6489e
The Greens had a vote almost as terribly inefficient as Reform.
Going by vote share, the Conservatives did as or slightly better than expected, and Labour much worse.
But vote share's irrelevant. Seats are what count.