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Could one of the gruesome twosome win the Tory leadership? – politicalbetting.com
Could one of the gruesome twosome win the Tory leadership? – politicalbetting.com
? Ex-home secretary faces calls to pull out of Conservative leadership race in favour of Robert JenrickRead more ?https://t.co/RtvcHbrP5N pic.twitter.com/qbCC3wUviB
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England are currently 248/3.
OVER/UNDER (435.5)10/11 on Ladbrokes
I feel that England have to play extraordinary to add close to 200 runs to reach 436.
Apologies if am wrong.
Even the idiots at Douche Bank figured out that it is cheaper to hire a permanent employee for 10 years, rather than trying to get a contractor or a string of contractors for that time.
The fact that you don’t spend half the time retraining people and trying to work out all the stuff they knew but didn’t write down before they left, is a cherry on top.
Randolf Churchill (ish). 'They will fight- and they will be Right'.
And I'm one of those contractors but my skills lie in a complex bit of software so you can't really train someone up quickly to use it. Also I want to get your system working correctly and then bugger off to the next client...
P. B. Pedant
If you like compare with the "English rivers are full of shit" or "English privatised trains are shit" lines, whilst "look what public ownership of railways / rivers has done in Scotland", when actually the Scottish version has the same questions, but the complainer wants to have a lazy pop at "Tory Government" or find a self-justification for their demands, and the Scottish Gov has perhaps chosen not to publish information (they do that).
Point that out, like the JSO Five deserving their prison time, and there will be lots of shouting coming back, but the question not addressed.
One question I don't hear answered on education, which I hope someone here can answer, is why England is back up the PISA tables after a dip?
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
Could make a huge difference to betting
The Lib Dems made a breakthrough on a highly concentrated vote, to the point that several previously solid Tory seats are looking impregnably Lib Dem even at the next election, so strong are the majorities. Now the Lib Dems can fan out, and by recapturing their previous voters, they can gain even more rural and wealthier seats across the country, and that must surely be the nightmare for the Tory knights of the shires. The reality is that Reform represents a certain amount of "None of the above" rather than merely disaffected Tories. What turned off the wealthier and more educated ex-Tory voters was not just the incompetence but the hectoring and arrogant tone that so many ministers adopted, even when their policies were revealed as gimmickry and garbage.
That hectoring tone is continuing in this internal debate, and is a complete turn off. I note that Steve Baker seems to have undergone a Damascene conversion in this regard, and if the Tories are ever going to recover, they will need to recapture their reputation for civility as well as probity. The point about a stiff upper lip, is that no one knows when they have got you beaten. Unless the Tories can reset the tone of their debate, it will be a very long time before they are taken seriously ever again. Politics is moving on, and with the Lib Dems on the march, the Tories need to run to stay still, never mind make progress.
It is likely to be several leaders before the Tories return to power, so no wonder few are really listening.
An extraordinary event being much more unlikely than an exceptional event.
And so ends the conservative party
I wonder if he might be planning a Leadership run.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ngwzd4y83o
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/pisa-2022-rise-in-maths-but-warning-over-inflated-results/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/20/robert-jenrick-interview-right-wing-views/
I also question whether he wants to be leader as he will now never by PM - so it may be a question of setting the direction of the leadership...
The LDs did well by taking almost all the Tory Remain seats left in southern England and most of the Tory seats they won in 1997 and 2001 and 2005 but that is their peak.
Indeed in a few seats they won the Tory and Reform vote was bigger than the vote the new LD MP got
They're a rancid crew, the Trump base.
Since 2000 the series record has been:
England 8
West Indies 3
Drawn 1
The West Indies haven't won a series in England since 1988.
England won 8 series.
Windies won 2 series.
One series drawn.
Did you grow up, like me, in the 1970s or 1980s, and the memories are burnt in with a blowtorch?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Wisden_Trophy_records
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
He is also friends with Poilievre in Canada and would try and follow his success for Conservatives there
https://order-order.com/2024/05/28/jenrick-in-canada-rather-than-campaigning/
I would not like to be Mr Starmer, having to manage the relationship with the USA if Trump gets back in, with another soul-for-sale lying MAGA shit who has hardly spent time outside politics or the military one heartbeat away.
TBH I used to believe the line that Britain was a fundamentally conservative country whose default choice of government is centre-right but the evidence suggests it actually more centre-left.
Edit: For clarity "SDP" in these charts is the old-style 1980s SDP, not today's irrelevant parody SDP .
Plus in 2015 all Lib Dem votes were a vote to keep David Cameron as PM.
On the other side, it would be determined quite heavily by 1 - Does this Government succeed and 2 - How well Lib Dems dig in in their constituencies across the South.
Jenrick is also attempting to broaden his appeal, having this weekend talked openly about his upbringing and his parents’ working-class backgrounds.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/tories-know-why-they-lost-but-who-will-pull-them-from-the-dustbin-3fbg6z5dj
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/21/yes-five-years-in-jail-is-too-harsh-but-the-just-stop-oil-five-shouldnt-have-done-it
Especially since the LDs/Liberals have often been closer to the right than the left.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolton_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1950s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huddersfield_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1950s
Starmer has had an excellent start and it seems, as he looks over the wreckage of the conservative party, he intends taking the best bits ( and there are some) and adopting them going forward thereby delivering a devastating coup d'etat on any thoughts the conservatives may have of winning again in 2029
Conservatives underestimating Starmer do so at their peril and moving to the right might be their only remaining space, but as in the left, is the road to the political wilderness
If in doubt - witness Jeremy Corbyn
Its just that the centre moves, followed by the main parties.
Teaching. More of a lottery. Working in a school is in some regards like working for a small business. In the latter, so much depends on the personality of the owner, in the former the personality of the headteacher. Plus a school will go on a lot longer than a small business when said person is incompetent (lot of family and friends in the profession).
Reform are proper dumb, they have cornered the unthinking and viscerally reactive voters that propped up the Tories for decades. Though I accept that their haters also came from Labour ranks too.
Principles. It’s gonna be difficult. Cruelty is not a winner. As proven by SKS vs Braverman.
The Telegraph may call it soul. I’d say that has already been sold. Time to forge another, based on doing something worthwhile.
I was always under the impression that the Conservative Party, as the main supporter of FPTP, was opposed to deals with other parties, although in the 40’s and 50’s there were a couple of deals in Northern industrial-ish seats to keep Labour at bay.
It’s clear though that over the last few years traditional party loyalties have changed, or perhaps reset, as they did around 100 years ago.
I would like to see a move towards some form of proportional representation, perhaps starting with the multi-member wards in local government.
1. Go right, and shore up the threat from Reform. The goal being to return them to zero MPs, and therefore to be the sole right wing party in the UK.
2. Go Central, and enter into some kind of pact with Reform.
I think the first is by far the most sensible option. The second option is absolutely fraught with danger, because there is the very real risk that Reform starts out polling you.
She said the US market is too complicated, including the politics, whereas in China if you don’t go electric, “you have no future.”
https://x.com/kyleichan/status/1814761756062806173
Pete Buttigieg
Trump: Elon Musk gives me $45 million a month. We have to make life good for people like him
I wonder where he got the Mortal Engines idea from. Perhaps he was reflecting on the meaning of life?
https://philipreeveblog.blogspot.com/2021/12/monty-python-and-holy-grail.html?m=1
If the Tories move to the right, which I fully expect them to do (although as with both Labour [to the left] and Conservatives [to the right] they normally correct themselves in time), they will solidify the LD base all over the South and South West and fill in most of the remaining blue with yellow in these areas.
I never understand why both the right of the Tories and the left of Labour always think they lost because they weren't left wing or right wing enough. It is weird (again I know that isn't necessarily your view @hyufd)
The danger with (1) is that you become a poundshop Reform and people (especially in currently Labour held marginal seats) prefer the real Fargle.
The danger with (2) is that you become a poundshop Liberal Party and people prefer the Libdems. Especially as the latter won't be troubled by the compromises of office any time soon,
The election went perfectly for Farage. He got his senior officers in getting a toehold. If he had 30 MPs all sorts of unsuitable paper candidate crazies would have got in and strangled them at birth. Labour having a big majority (mainly Farages doing) means no election any time soon. So he has four years to build and professionalise the party, then capitalise on Labours regulating instincts stopping them turning things round. If he succeeds the Tories are done for. It is of course a very big "if".
Trellix must be very happy right now.
Amazed me that you had some of the brightest young people in the country who had given up 7 years of their youth to a fearsome training course and they were treated the way a 1970s station master treated station porters (on both sides of the atlantic).
https://x.com/ydeigin/status/1814796628123152569/
If Biden stays in, variations in this will be every GOP campaign ad.
However I can't see them professionalising the party. They don't have grassroots, they don't have campaigning infrastructure and I just can't see them getting it. of course I might be completely wrong. Just because they don't have it now, it doesn't mean they can't create it, but there is very little evidence of that happening.
One thing I am pretty confident of predicting: I will be very surprised if Clacton sees very much of Nigel Farage.
As I understand it, US in particular will soon have production falling fast as the Permian declines (shale exhausts quite fast) and I have seen it posited by insiders that Saudi's periodic production cuts in recent years are more about allowing depleted fields to "rest" before increasing production again than politics
Ha!
For those who don’t remember, Peak Oil was a scare thing about the world being about to run out of oil, next week.
@bbcnews deliberately held back truth about dog attack story - whitewashing a family of terrorists and then butchering an IDF statement to make sure YOU never got to hear about it.
https://x.com/mishtal/status/1814930617080881243
Tacking to the centre doesn’t automatically win them LD seats back. Fishing in the same pool of centrist voters at this stage as Labour and the LDs is, in my mind, as risky if not more so than tacking to the right. They might be better off strategically shoring up their right flank in this Parliament. There is no easy fix.
Biden is 81.
How many people at 58 work.
How many do so at 81.
I still remember the hilariously handbrake turn on Presidential fitness - with GWB, it was apparently a terrible thing that the President wasted so much time on exercise. Obama on the other hand….
In many ways he is the opposite of Lee Anderson.
As it happens we still have a Tory MP and perhaps I would prefer that MP to be leader, for an imagined advantage to the constituency.
But my MP (for Romsey and Southampton North) is not in the running. So I will continue in my indifference.
Since leaving office GWB has improved his image. The extremely gracious handover to Obama started that - the families became friends as a result of it.
I have usually assessed Sonia Sodha as being slightly loopy in the Georges Monbiot sense - that is highlighting generally good causes but twisting the means of achieving them through self-importance / lack of respect for others.
In recent years I've seen her being more sensible on some R4 programmes; I'll read her more often.
Any other criminal, if they kept turning up in court with the same or worsening offensives, told by a judge suspended sentence or community service, don't want to see you again, and there are they again in a few months, after the 3-4-5th time are going to prison.