Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs.
I appreciate this is you hypothesising @HYUFD and you may well be right, although I can't see tacking to the centre and also doing a deal with Reform can work. They seem mutually exclusive.
If the Tories move to the right, which I fully expect them to do (although as with both Labour [to the left] and Conservatives [to the right] they normally correct themselves in time), they will solidify the LD base all over the South and South West and fill in most of the remaining blue with yellow in these areas.
I never understand why both the right of the Tories and the left of Labour always think they lost because they weren't left wing or right wing enough. It is weird (again I know that isn't necessarily your view @hyufd)
The Tories lost mainly because they were incompetent, of course. The problem is that competency is hard to demonstrate in opposition when it is still the same faces in charge.
Tacking to the centre doesn’t automatically win them LD seats back. Fishing in the same pool of centrist voters at this stage as Labour and the LDs is, in my mind, as risky if not more so than tacking to the right. They might be better off strategically shoring up their right flank in this Parliament. There is no easy fix.
I like that post, but I would say tacking to the centre might stop them losing all those blue seats still up for grabs around the yellow clusters in the South and South West.
I particularly liked your first para and the logic of your argument in the 2nd para, although I don't agree with the 2nd para, although I do agree with the 1st sentence in it.
If the LDs didn't gain a Tory seat on July 4th I doubt they ever will
Really? There are several seats that were not targeted or only got a partial target from the LDs that were quite close. In fact we won several that we not given full target activity. So these seats you think are safe are all winnable if we don't have to worry about the ones we won this time. So this time we got activists from Farnham and Bordon. Next time they won't be coming to Guildford if things remain the same and people like me will be going to help them.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs
I would have thought that there were two different options for the Conservatives:
1. Go right, and shore up the threat from Reform. The goal being to return them to zero MPs, and therefore to be the sole right wing party in the UK. 2. Go Central, and enter into some kind of pact with Reform.
I think the first is by far the most sensible option. The second option is absolutely fraught with danger, because there is the very real risk that Reform starts out polling you.
Not if 2 only means the Tories standing down for Reform where Reform were second and Reform standing down for the Tories where the Tories were second
Your plan has numerous problems including:
1) Conservative votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think.
2) Reform votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think
3) To get back into government the Conservatives need 300+ MPs they can rely on - Reform MPs cannot be relied upon.
Reform MPs can be relied on more than Labour MPs they would replace to vote with the Tories though
Can they ???
What will be the political views of any future potential Reform MP ?
Immigration frothing and some level of social conservatism seem likely but apart from that what ?
You only have to look at the mish-mash fantasies of the reform manifesto and the differences between that and what Reform voters actually want to see that they are utterly unreliable for any form of actual governance.
The political views of any Reform MP will certainly be closer to the ERG and right of the Tories and most Tory members than a Labour MPs
Its irrelevant.
A successful government depends on intellectual substance, hard work and a willingness to do difficult things at a cost.
And these attributes are where Reform would go missing.
To be fair to the LibDems, they were able to supply them during the coalition.
All very well but without the votes united on the right by either pact or merger with Reform the Tories ain't getting near government again under FPTP. Post Brexit the LDs are unlikely to touch the Tories with a bargepole again for a generation
That Cameron missed a generational chance to reshape our politics is certainly true. In an alternative universe, he didn’t break his promise to stay out of the AV referendum, didn’t use the coalition to cynically turn on his junior partner, and didn’t think that an EU referendum would be a surefire winner for remain.
More fundamentally, does it never occur to you that when your MPs got to the point where the judges, the BBC, the National Trust, parliamentary procedure, and our European neighbours and allies, were all painted as enemies, while the commonly accepted standards of expected behaviour from our national leaders were suddenly assumed to be of no consequence, were massive warning flags that - just maybe - your party had taken a wrong turn somewhere?
You may not have noticed all of this, but the decent voters of the Home Counties certainly did. And the hope will be that their new LibDem MPs will prove to be more effective defenders of small-c conservative England than has your own bunch of extremist right-wing wreckers.
The Tories still won more South East and Home Counties MPs on July 4th than the LDs did. Just the LDs won all the Remain seats except Hunt's seat and of course the Home Counties were narrowly Leave overall still in 2016 not Remain like London, just less Leave than the North, Wales and Midlands were
Labour won a plurality of seats in every single English region, though
In terms of votes though the Tories won the highest voteshare in the South East, the South West and the East of England still and the Tories + Reform were higher than Labour in every English region except London, the North East, the North West and Yorkshire and Humber https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10009/CBP-10009.pdf
Hmmm. Quad bikes and AT buggies at 1am in Birmingham.
I'm really not sure what's going on, and why enforcement is impossible; the rules and guidance around tactical contact have been in place for years. Teenage hooligans out for kicks, or something more serious? I don't thin drug distributors would be seeking such attention.
(But it's amusing how the tweeter thinks that "cars" can be "terrorised".)
Its an American thing that is big on social media that clearly catching on here.
It's been a countryside thing forever; these vehicles are around for farms and owners will think the law does not apply to them when it's inconvenient because that's just what they do ("I need to", "I'm not hurting anyone" etc).
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs
I would have thought that there were two different options for the Conservatives:
1. Go right, and shore up the threat from Reform. The goal being to return them to zero MPs, and therefore to be the sole right wing party in the UK. 2. Go Central, and enter into some kind of pact with Reform.
I think the first is by far the most sensible option. The second option is absolutely fraught with danger, because there is the very real risk that Reform starts out polling you.
Not if 2 only means the Tories standing down for Reform where Reform were second and Reform standing down for the Tories where the Tories were second
Your plan has numerous problems including:
1) Conservative votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think.
2) Reform votes aren't as transferrable as you seem to think
3) To get back into government the Conservatives need 300+ MPs they can rely on - Reform MPs cannot be relied upon.
Reform MPs can be relied on more than Labour MPs they would replace to vote with the Tories though
Can they ???
What will be the political views of any future potential Reform MP ?
Immigration frothing and some level of social conservatism seem likely but apart from that what ?
You only have to look at the mish-mash fantasies of the reform manifesto and the differences between that and what Reform voters actually want to see that they are utterly unreliable for any form of actual governance.
The political views of any Reform MP will certainly be closer to the ERG and right of the Tories and most Tory members than a Labour MPs
Its irrelevant.
A successful government depends on intellectual substance, hard work and a willingness to do difficult things at a cost.
And these attributes are where Reform would go missing.
To be fair to the LibDems, they were able to supply them during the coalition.
All very well but without the votes united on the right by either pact or merger with Reform the Tories ain't getting near government again under FPTP. Post Brexit the LDs are unlikely to touch the Tories with a bargepole again for a generation
That Cameron missed a generational chance to reshape our politics is certainly true. In an alternative universe, he didn’t break his promise to stay out of the AV referendum, didn’t use the coalition to cynically turn on his junior partner, and didn’t think that an EU referendum would be a surefire winner for remain.
More fundamentally, does it never occur to you that when your MPs got to the point where the judges, the BBC, the National Trust, parliamentary procedure, and our European neighbours and allies, were all painted as enemies, while the commonly accepted standards of expected behaviour from our national leaders were suddenly assumed to be of no consequence, were massive warning flags that - just maybe - your party had taken a wrong turn somewhere?
You may not have noticed all of this, but the decent voters of the Home Counties certainly did. And the hope will be that their new LibDem MPs will prove to be more effective defenders of small-c conservative England than has your own bunch of extremist right-wing wreckers.
The Tories still won more South East and Home Counties MPs on July 4th than the LDs did. Just the LDs won almost all the Remain seats there and of course the Home Counties were narrowly Leave overall still in 2016 not Remain like London, just less Leave than the North, Wales and Midlands were
Yes indeed. The recent election was a massive victory for the Conservatives.
Not!
You just cannot admit it, can you? Your party has become so extreme that a no-charisma manager like Starmer was able to beat you using a manifesto that was about as exciting as reading a loo roll.
You are part of the problem.
It's not the extremism that was the problem. The Conservatives won in 2019 and were ahead for much of the start of the Parliament.
It was the perceived incompetence after the Truss budget. That turned normal mid-term blues into a catastrophe.
It was both.
Besides, where are the competent right wingers? Not Braverman, not Patel, not Badenoch. Or, for balance, not Corbyn, not Abbott.
If your party values ideology over competence, the competence of the party will inevitably go down.
The Tories hold just five seats with majorities of over 10,000. The LibDems hold 25 seats and Labour hold 115 seats with 10,000+ majorities.
The Tories are in a desperate position. How can they make it worse?
Easy. By electing Braverman or Jenrick as leader.
A quick modelling exercise on the recent results shows that if the Tories elect Braverman or Jenrick as leader and lose 10% of their support to Lab and LDs then they lose an extra 30 seats or so. But if they gain back 10% of RUF support they gain back 20 seats. It's a bit of a wash.
But I don't think the future of the Tory party depends on arithmetic. It depends much more on behaviour. Poor behaviour is what has caused their recent defeat. If it continues, they won't recover. The entitled antics of Victoria Atkins yesterday is not a good omen.
The LIbDems, on the other hand, I think will provide a model of how to oppose with constructive suggestions and mutually respectful behaviour. I think (and hope) that Labour will respond in kind. But if the Tories act like spoiled brats, encouraged by Farage heckling from the back, then there is no hope for them.
The 2024 Tory vote is their core vote, they aren't losing any more of it or at most a trickle to the LDs. If they gain Reform votes, especially after a pact with Reform in seats where the Tories were second and the Tory and Reform combined vote was bigger than Labour they gain over 100 seats plus
I think you may have hit core membership numbers, but actually I think your core voter numbers can indeed still shrink. The Lib Dems are more likely to gain more total voters after a Parliament where they have stronger resources than ever before to out out their message. They now have resources to deploy for research that they have never had before. Unlike the Tories the Lib Dems know that no one owes them a living and their MPs are a generally impressive and highly motivated bunch.
500,000 people die every year. 80% of them are the Tories core voters! They need to attract new voters aged 18 -24. I cannot see them managing to do that! Sell Telegraph shares!!
Well, quite
I will certainly never vote Conservative again until they clean out the loons like Braverman, Patel, Jenrick, etc.
I think the chances are pretty high that they will not be able to reform themselves before the Lib Dems come and eat their lunch.
The LDs got fewer votes than Reform did
That would be important if we had PR. But we don't, and the LibDems and Labour took full advantage of the way FPTP works.
The Conservatives had 14 years to change the system. And didn't.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs.
I appreciate this is you hypothesising @HYUFD and you may well be right, although I can't see tacking to the centre and also doing a deal with Reform can work. They seem mutually exclusive.
If the Tories move to the right, which I fully expect them to do (although as with both Labour [to the left] and Conservatives [to the right] they normally correct themselves in time), they will solidify the LD base all over the South and South West and fill in most of the remaining blue with yellow in these areas.
I never understand why both the right of the Tories and the left of Labour always think they lost because they weren't left wing or right wing enough. It is weird (again I know that isn't necessarily your view @hyufd)
The Tories lost mainly because they were incompetent, of course. The problem is that competency is hard to demonstrate in opposition when it is still the same faces in charge.
Tacking to the centre doesn’t automatically win them LD seats back. Fishing in the same pool of centrist voters at this stage as Labour and the LDs is, in my mind, as risky if not more so than tacking to the right. They might be better off strategically shoring up their right flank in this Parliament. There is no easy fix.
I like that post, but I would say tacking to the centre might stop them losing all those blue seats still up for grabs around the yellow clusters in the South and South West.
I particularly liked your first para and the logic of your argument in the 2nd para, although I don't agree with the 2nd para, although I do agree with the 1st sentence in it.
If the LDs didn't gain a Tory seat on July 4th I doubt they ever will
Really? There are several seats that were not targeted or only got a partial target from the LDs that were quite close. In fact we won several that we not given full target activity. So these seats you think are safe are all winnable if we don't have to worry about the ones we won this time. So this time we got activists from Farnham and Bordon. Next time they won't be coming to Guildford if things remain the same and people like me will be going to help them.
The Tories + Reform got 47% in Farnham and Bordon, the LDs 33%.
In Guildford granted the LDs got 47.5% to 39% for the Tories + Reform
F1: McLaren now 51 points off Red Bull. Perez likely to be replaced after Spa, during the mid-season break. Still a decent shot of McLaren taking the Constructors'. Every second driver (save Ricciardo) to Verstappen ended up crashing and burning. Also, they don't have car dominance, and there's a lot of competition so a few tenths off Verstappen can easily mean being behind McLarens, Mercedes, Ferraris, and maybe more.
The Tories hold just five seats with majorities of over 10,000. The LibDems hold 25 seats and Labour hold 115 seats with 10,000+ majorities.
The Tories are in a desperate position. How can they make it worse?
Easy. By electing Braverman or Jenrick as leader.
A quick modelling exercise on the recent results shows that if the Tories elect Braverman or Jenrick as leader and lose 10% of their support to Lab and LDs then they lose an extra 30 seats or so. But if they gain back 10% of RUF support they gain back 20 seats. It's a bit of a wash.
But I don't think the future of the Tory party depends on arithmetic. It depends much more on behaviour. Poor behaviour is what has caused their recent defeat. If it continues, they won't recover. The entitled antics of Victoria Atkins yesterday is not a good omen.
The LIbDems, on the other hand, I think will provide a model of how to oppose with constructive suggestions and mutually respectful behaviour. I think (and hope) that Labour will respond in kind. But if the Tories act like spoiled brats, encouraged by Farage heckling from the back, then there is no hope for them.
The 2024 Tory vote is their core vote, they aren't losing any more of it or at most a trickle to the LDs. If they gain Reform votes, especially after a pact with Reform in seats where the Tories were second and the Tory and Reform combined vote was bigger than Labour they gain over 100 seats plus
I think you may have hit core membership numbers, but actually I think your core voter numbers can indeed still shrink. The Lib Dems are more likely to gain more total voters after a Parliament where they have stronger resources than ever before to out out their message. They now have resources to deploy for research that they have never had before. Unlike the Tories the Lib Dems know that no one owes them a living and their MPs are a generally impressive and highly motivated bunch.
500,000 people die every year. 80% of them are the Tories core voters! They need to attract new voters aged 18 -24. I cannot see them managing to do that! Sell Telegraph shares!!
Dying Conservatives on their own might lose them 30 or so seats at the next election.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs.
I appreciate this is you hypothesising @HYUFD and you may well be right, although I can't see tacking to the centre and also doing a deal with Reform can work. They seem mutually exclusive.
If the Tories move to the right, which I fully expect them to do (although as with both Labour [to the left] and Conservatives [to the right] they normally correct themselves in time), they will solidify the LD base all over the South and South West and fill in most of the remaining blue with yellow in these areas.
I never understand why both the right of the Tories and the left of Labour always think they lost because they weren't left wing or right wing enough. It is weird (again I know that isn't necessarily your view @hyufd)
The Tories lost mainly because they were incompetent, of course. The problem is that competency is hard to demonstrate in opposition when it is still the same faces in charge.
Tacking to the centre doesn’t automatically win them LD seats back. Fishing in the same pool of centrist voters at this stage as Labour and the LDs is, in my mind, as risky if not more so than tacking to the right. They might be better off strategically shoring up their right flank in this Parliament. There is no easy fix.
I like that post, but I would say tacking to the centre might stop them losing all those blue seats still up for grabs around the yellow clusters in the South and South West.
I particularly liked your first para and the logic of your argument in the 2nd para, although I don't agree with the 2nd para, although I do agree with the 1st sentence in it.
If the LDs didn't gain a Tory seat on July 4th I doubt they ever will
Really? There are several seats that were not targeted or only got a partial target from the LDs that were quite close. In fact we won several that we not given full target activity. So these seats you think are safe are all winnable if we don't have to worry about the ones we won this time. So this time we got activists from Farnham and Bordon. Next time they won't be coming to Guildford if things remain the same and people like me will be going to help them.
The Tories + Reform got 47% in Farnham and Bordon, the LDs 33%
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs.
I appreciate this is you hypothesising @HYUFD and you may well be right, although I can't see tacking to the centre and also doing a deal with Reform can work. They seem mutually exclusive.
If the Tories move to the right, which I fully expect them to do (although as with both Labour [to the left] and Conservatives [to the right] they normally correct themselves in time), they will solidify the LD base all over the South and South West and fill in most of the remaining blue with yellow in these areas.
I never understand why both the right of the Tories and the left of Labour always think they lost because they weren't left wing or right wing enough. It is weird (again I know that isn't necessarily your view @hyufd)
The Tories lost mainly because they were incompetent, of course. The problem is that competency is hard to demonstrate in opposition when it is still the same faces in charge.
Tacking to the centre doesn’t automatically win them LD seats back. Fishing in the same pool of centrist voters at this stage as Labour and the LDs is, in my mind, as risky if not more so than tacking to the right. They might be better off strategically shoring up their right flank in this Parliament. There is no easy fix.
I like that post, but I would say tacking to the centre might stop them losing all those blue seats still up for grabs around the yellow clusters in the South and South West.
I particularly liked your first para and the logic of your argument in the 2nd para, although I don't agree with the 2nd para, although I do agree with the 1st sentence in it.
If the LDs didn't gain a Tory seat on July 4th I doubt they ever will
Really? There are several seats that were not targeted or only got a partial target from the LDs that were quite close. In fact we won several that we not given full target activity. So these seats you think are safe are all winnable if we don't have to worry about the ones we won this time. So this time we got activists from Farnham and Bordon. Next time they won't be coming to Guildford if things remain the same and people like me will be going to help them.
The Tories + Reform got 47% in Farnham and Bordon, the LDs 33%
So what. If we could have made it a full target we would have won it easily. I love the fact you add Reform to Con, but not Lab and Green to LD which we would have squeezed. Reform doesn't all go to Con.
Jenrick was at Cambridge with Braverman and they got on, if she backs him rather than defects to Reform that suggests she thinks he will reach out to Farage voters.
At the moment the momentum is with Jenrick, he had a good interview in the Telegraph yesterday which highlighted his provincial upbringing and working class parents. He can appeal to the right of the party by promising to be tougher on immigration for example while also he was the only leadership contender who backed Sunak over Truss so can appeal to some former Sunak loyalist MPs too.
I expect the final 2 picked by MPs to be Jenrick and Tugendhat as it stands, with Jenrick then winning the membership vote to become Tory leader
He's my bet at 14 - so that's performing well.
He'll run from the Right then tack to the centre if he wins, don't you think? Take a leaf from SKS?
Possibly, I would though also expect Jenrick to try and do a deal with Farage at the next general election so the Tories don't put up a candidate or if they do only a paper one in seats where Reform were second to Labour or the LDs. That would be in return for Farage not running a Reform candidate or only a paper candidate in seats where the Tories were second to Labour or the LDs.
I appreciate this is you hypothesising @HYUFD and you may well be right, although I can't see tacking to the centre and also doing a deal with Reform can work. They seem mutually exclusive.
If the Tories move to the right, which I fully expect them to do (although as with both Labour [to the left] and Conservatives [to the right] they normally correct themselves in time), they will solidify the LD base all over the South and South West and fill in most of the remaining blue with yellow in these areas.
I never understand why both the right of the Tories and the left of Labour always think they lost because they weren't left wing or right wing enough. It is weird (again I know that isn't necessarily your view @hyufd)
The Tories lost mainly because they were incompetent, of course. The problem is that competency is hard to demonstrate in opposition when it is still the same faces in charge.
Tacking to the centre doesn’t automatically win them LD seats back. Fishing in the same pool of centrist voters at this stage as Labour and the LDs is, in my mind, as risky if not more so than tacking to the right. They might be better off strategically shoring up their right flank in this Parliament. There is no easy fix.
I like that post, but I would say tacking to the centre might stop them losing all those blue seats still up for grabs around the yellow clusters in the South and South West.
I particularly liked your first para and the logic of your argument in the 2nd para, although I don't agree with the 2nd para, although I do agree with the 1st sentence in it.
If the LDs didn't gain a Tory seat on July 4th I doubt they ever will
Really? There are several seats that were not targeted or only got a partial target from the LDs that were quite close. In fact we won several that we not given full target activity. So these seats you think are safe are all winnable if we don't have to worry about the ones we won this time. So this time we got activists from Farnham and Bordon. Next time they won't be coming to Guildford if things remain the same and people like me will be going to help them.
The Tories + Reform got 47% in Farnham and Bordon, the LDs 33%
ReFukkers are not all Tories taking a gap year.
A plurality of them voted Conservative in 2019 though
The Tories hold just five seats with majorities of over 10,000. The LibDems hold 25 seats and Labour hold 115 seats with 10,000+ majorities.
The Tories are in a desperate position. How can they make it worse?
Easy. By electing Braverman or Jenrick as leader.
A quick modelling exercise on the recent results shows that if the Tories elect Braverman or Jenrick as leader and lose 10% of their support to Lab and LDs then they lose an extra 30 seats or so. But if they gain back 10% of RUF support they gain back 20 seats. It's a bit of a wash.
But I don't think the future of the Tory party depends on arithmetic. It depends much more on behaviour. Poor behaviour is what has caused their recent defeat. If it continues, they won't recover. The entitled antics of Victoria Atkins yesterday is not a good omen.
The LIbDems, on the other hand, I think will provide a model of how to oppose with constructive suggestions and mutually respectful behaviour. I think (and hope) that Labour will respond in kind. But if the Tories act like spoiled brats, encouraged by Farage heckling from the back, then there is no hope for them.
The 2024 Tory vote is their core vote, they aren't losing any more of it or at most a trickle to the LDs. If they gain Reform votes, especially after a pact with Reform in seats where the Tories were second and the Tory and Reform combined vote was bigger than Labour they gain over 100 seats plus
I think you may have hit core membership numbers, but actually I think your core voter numbers can indeed still shrink. The Lib Dems are more likely to gain more total voters after a Parliament where they have stronger resources than ever before to out out their message. They now have resources to deploy for research that they have never had before. Unlike the Tories the Lib Dems know that no one owes them a living and their MPs are a generally impressive and highly motivated bunch.
500,000 people die every year. 80% of them are the Tories core voters! They need to attract new voters aged 18 -24. I cannot see them managing to do that! Sell Telegraph shares!!
Well, quite
I will certainly never vote Conservative again until they clean out the loons like Braverman, Patel, Jenrick, etc.
I think the chances are pretty high that they will not be able to reform themselves before the Lib Dems come and eat their lunch.
The LDs got fewer votes than Reform did
We played the FPTP game. Now, as I said earlier, we have the resources to fan out into wider gains. You are still fighting 2024... 2028/9 will be a different election, and not necessarily easier for the Tories.
Comments
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10009/CBP-10009.pdf
Maybe WMP inertia. Here's one dealt by tactical contact in Bradford in 2019:
https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/17738187.game-changer-police-used-tactical-contact-stop-nuisance-quad--and-baildon-loves/
If they follow the Mark Harper / Grant Shapps technique and put all their energy into sitting on their butts it will get out of hand.
Besides, where are the competent right wingers? Not Braverman, not Patel, not Badenoch. Or, for balance, not Corbyn, not Abbott.
If your party values ideology over competence, the competence of the party will inevitably go down.
I read the article so you don’t have to.
The “mention” was a source telling the Bureau that there was a *rumour* Philip was having an affair with Christine Keeler
NEW THREAD
The Conservatives had 14 years to change the system. And didn't.
In Guildford granted the LDs got 47.5% to 39% for the Tories + Reform