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It’s getting very messy – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,653

    NEW THREAD

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,868

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Secluded in Delaware, Biden Stews at Allies’ Pressure to Drop Out of the Race

    As he recovers from Covid at his beach house, President Biden is said to have grown resentful toward Democratic leaders and former President Barack Obama."

    https://www.nytimes.com/

    Rightly so as it was Democratic leaders and Obama who told Biden to let Hillary be nominee in 2016 which promptly saw her lose the election to Trump. Biden then had to rescue the Democrats by beating Trump in 2020
    Biden didn't rescue the democrats, introduction of mass postal ballots, under the pretence of Covid did.
    Which bit of Covid was a “pretence”?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,142
    Andy_JS said:

    Oh.

    "Activists lawyers are spreading “distressing and dangerous” claims that transgender children will kill themselves because of a ban on puberty blockers, a government review has found.

    Professor Louis Appleby, the government’s adviser on suicide prevention, found that there was no evidence to support claims of a “surge” in suicides among trans children.

    The Good Law Project, a campaign group led by the barrister Jolyon Maugham, has repeatedly invoked statistics on social media purporting to show an “explosion” in deaths among children being treated for gender dysphoria at the Tavistock and Portman NHS trust."

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/aff73b8a-7935-4c5d-a347-33b8595585c7

    IIUC, the two populations are different.

    Prof Appleby's numbers are of under18s in the Tavistock

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-suicides-and-gender-dysphoria-at-the-tavistock-and-portman-nhs-foundation-trust/review-of-suicides-and-gender-dysphoria-at-the-tavistock-and-portman-nhs-foundation-trust-independent-report

    Maugham contends that this does not include

    * Under-18s on the waiting lists
    * Under-18s in other clinics
    * Under-18s on the waiting list for other clinics ("in transit")
    * Over-18s at time of death who were under-18 when they went on the lists

    Example link
    https://nitter.poast.org/JolyonMaugham/status/1814366867940843879#m





  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 20
    darkage said:

    I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.

    https://x.com/_cjevanss/status/1813990323560796574?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    On the face of it, totally batshit.

    And exactly the opposite of what Tories should be doing. Which is why Farage won a seat
    Rory Stewart was on Triggernometry earlier in the month talking about some of his experiences with the civil service in the Foreign Office. His Syria team, who were advising him on the civil war at the time, were relocated to East Kilbride; and they weren't allowed to fly to London to attend briefings because of a 'carbon audit'. The expert on Libya was a 'job share' post, so a different person for half of the week. Obviously the government were not able to correct any of this, despite being the government.

    The reality is that for many people, Trump and Farage offer a more coherant view of the world than the prevailing liberal/left 'woke establishment' worldview. Even if you percieve the problem and the dangers of right wing populism, there is a strong argument that the system needs to be massively disrupted to be more effective.
    They correctly deduce that the system is malfunctioning and that the politicians are too feeble, corrupt or wedded to the concepts that cause above problems (so for example support the laws/rules that require carbon audits and allow a key post to be shared by two people hundreds of miles from the minister rather than repealing them in short order.

    The problem is that when the political class becomes rotten, there isn't a spare competent political class, so people turn to what there is.

    Personally I think the UK civil service and public sector is irreformable** and Labour for all their good intentions are wedded to technocratic regulation so will make things worse.

    It will come to a head when the government cannot shift gilts, so can no longer fund their debts. It won't be fun though, especially in the cities.

    ** There are some really good people in the public sector, islands of hardworking competence, but they are tied down gulliver like by unthinking bureacracy which many who wouldn't last five minutes in a private sector job hide behind to avoid doing a great deal.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,818
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @christiancalgie

    Damian Green and Steve Baker publish joint endorsement of Tom Tugendhat this evening

    https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1814407315879289149

    Baker’s endorsement is interesting.
    It isn't. He's been the centrist's favourite pet convert since his mental breakdown. I (genuinely) dread to think what they did to bring him on board.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 21,983

    Blair masterclass. Hammering his era's Owen Jones types.

    "It's not perfect, so you're going to walk away".


    https://x.com/OGRolandRat/status/1814027575603458113


    How long before Starmer has to make this speech? Doubt it will be so good.

    Thanks for posting that, I hadn't seen that clip before.

    It's worth noting the specific first term achievements that Blair was citing. National minimum wage, the new pensioners winter fuel allowance, the working families tax credit and the New Deal programme to tackle unemployment. All Labour initiatives that materially and directly improved the finances of those who really needed financial help.

    Starmer's problem is going to be that the flagship policies he's initially focusing on won't have such a direct financial effect on the personal finances of those struggling to make ends meet. There will need to be more of substance offered down the road if the charge of "you've done nothing" isn't going to stick. Blair was able to rhetorically raise and debunk that charge in the clip you posted, will Starmer be able to in due course?
    How much of Rishi's Hail Mary Pork Barrels are going to be preserved?

    Are NI cuts locked in, for example?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,142
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Oh.

    "Activists lawyers are spreading “distressing and dangerous” claims that transgender children will kill themselves because of a ban on puberty blockers, a government review has found.

    Professor Louis Appleby, the government’s adviser on suicide prevention, found that there was no evidence to support claims of a “surge” in suicides among trans children.

    The Good Law Project, a campaign group led by the barrister Jolyon Maugham, has repeatedly invoked statistics on social media purporting to show an “explosion” in deaths among children being treated for gender dysphoria at the Tavistock and Portman NHS trust."

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/aff73b8a-7935-4c5d-a347-33b8595585c7

    IIUC, the two populations are different.

    Prof Appleby's numbers are of under18s in the Tavistock

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-suicides-and-gender-dysphoria-at-the-tavistock-and-portman-nhs-foundation-trust/review-of-suicides-and-gender-dysphoria-at-the-tavistock-and-portman-nhs-foundation-trust-independent-report

    Maugham contends that this does not include

    * Under-18s on the waiting lists
    * Under-18s in other clinics
    * Under-18s on the waiting list for other clinics ("in transit")
    * Over-18s at time of death who were under-18 when they went on the lists

    Example link
    https://nitter.poast.org/JolyonMaugham/status/1814366867940843879#m

    @Andy_JS, I'll try to have a look at this this week: not in an attempt to resolve the issue (it big, me small) but in an attempt to demonstrate the difficulty of resolving numbers from different sources.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,818

    Incredible. Stumbled across a social media vid of Liz Truss telling GB News (and part-time MP) Farage why she thinks Trump needs to win.

    Because Biden has been weak president: "war in ukraine".

    These people are no longer even remotely in touch with actual reality. They live in a social media echo chamber and that is their world.

    The GOP veep has literally said he doesn't care one way or the other whether Ukr loses and is desperate for Trump to negotiate a peace based on giving up annexed land.

    That's not weak though.

    Jeez.

    The more we see of Truss the more you realise why she was utterly unsuited for the highest political office in the land.

    She has a tenuous grasp on reality and a frightening lack of self-awareness.

    She bears a grudge against Biden because she thinks the US establishment was another player in the vast conspiracy that brought her down rather than the fact she couldn't do economics or government properly.

    Tory MPs of the time have a lot to answer for. I'd say the membership too, but to be fair to them to choice was between Truss and Sunak, neither of whom were ready to be PM.
    Um, Biden publicly attacked her budget. That's not 'a conspiracy', it is a matter of historical record. It was a gross breach of diplomatic protocol, and a shitty way to treat an ally.
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