Prediction: if Kemi wins she wont still be leading the tories by 2028 GE.
She would be a passable LOTO, as she is quite articulate at set pieces.
She just won't put in the work behind the scenes to sort out the Tory's electability problem because she doesn't understand why they lost.
They lost mainly as they leaked to Reform. Tories + Reform's combined voteshare was 38%, more than Labour's 33%.
If the right can be united again the next general election is certainly winnable for the Conservatives if the economy is poor under Starmer's government
The Conservatives lost 7 million votes on July 4th - they polled nearly 14 million in December 2019, less than 7 million on July 4th.
TBP polled 645,000 in 2019 - Reform polled 4.1 million so let's call it a gain of 3.5 million.
In other words, at most, HALF the Conservative loss went to Reform and it's probably not even that as Reform attracted support in Labour areas.
There's plenty of evidence, as has been repeatedly pointed out to you, Reform voters are NOT Conservative voters but if you want to carry on with that delusion, fine. It took eight years and three defeats last time before you saw sense - probably 15 years and three defeats before you understand how politics really works.
Yes they lost voters to stay at home too, hence turnout fell to under 60%.
In 1997 the Tories had a charismatic centrist opponent as PM and Labour leader in Blair, Starmer is a dull Brownite social democrat, not in the same league. So GE victory is perfectly possible again if the 2019 coalition Boris built can be rebuilt
Am I the only one finding it unlikely Starmer will fight another election? I mean. He'll be 66, and asking us to elect him till he's 71. Can't imagine any electorate thinking that is a good idea... Hang on.
Why not serve a full second term and then let another candidate fight the election at the end of it? I am never really sure why our politicians never think about that one. The position of party leader and PM can be divorced from each other.
Amnesty International Australia just sent out confidential notices threatening to purge all members who voted for a resolution at the 2024 AGM condemning the infamous 2022 Amnesty report that blamed Ukraine for their own civilian deaths. The Ukrainian drafter of the resolution received a notice that his membership will be cancelled. I also received a purge threat as well as multiple others. https://x.com/DrewPavlou/status/1814194865779200410
Why Kamala Harris isn't much of a success at identity poliitcs: Her father is a mixed-race academic from Jamaica; her mother is an academic from India. So she is, most likely, one-fourth black -- and doesn't look very black.
As a young child she was schooled in both Christian and HIndu teachings.
When she was 12, her mother moved her and her younger sister to Canada. She did not get back to the United States until she chose to attend Howard, a historically black university. (I suspect she chose Howard because of her political ambitions; she thought her best chance was to learn how to at least appear "authentically black".)
She did have an affair with a prominent black California politician, Willie Brown, but she married a Jewish lawyer in the entertainment business. They have no children. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris
At the moment my hunch is that Harris will be the nominee and that she'll win the election in November, but I may change that prediction over the coming weeks and months.
Amnesty International Australia just sent out confidential notices threatening to purge all members who voted for a resolution at the 2024 AGM condemning the infamous 2022 Amnesty report that blamed Ukraine for their own civilian deaths. The Ukrainian drafter of the resolution received a notice that his membership will be cancelled. I also received a purge threat as well as multiple others. https://x.com/DrewPavlou/status/1814194865779200410
That action, if true, would not surprise me in the least.
Forgive me, I haven’t been following US politics particularly closely - can someone summarise for me, please, why is everyone so down on Harris’s chances in the general?
Like, I can read the polls, but is she like, hopeless on stage? Or a whack job, policy wise?
None of those things. Her previous experience is as largely as a somewhat effective prosecutor.
I think there's a degree of misogyny with Harris. A black woman who is also liberal is someone who doesn't know their place. We can say this is all very bad, but if she does become presidential candidate she will have to find a way to overcome the prejudice against her. Not certain she will.
Not entirely true, Michelle Obama polls way better than Harris and is a liberal black woman too.
The difference is she has charisma, Harris makes Hillary Clinton look like a woman with the common touch
Michelle Obama has never stood for high office and always felt she has been held back. Her biggest political role has been First Lady of the United States, where the word "decorum" was used a lot to describe her, thereby confirming the stereotype of a black woman knowing her place.
Leave it out. Decorum is the stock in trade of first ladies of any colour.
Exactly, Melania wasn’t doing Victoria’s Secret lingerie catwalks after Donald was elected. She showed decorum.
Just to demonstrate her decorum here is a picture of her before First Lady decorum.
As a reminder, Melania entered the US on an O1,"Genius" visa.
People are saying Biden is too old but I really think the age part isn’t the main problem . There are lots of 80 year olds who are nothing like Biden . He’s frail and can barely muster more than a whisper when he talks .
I don't really get the appeal of Tugendhat if I'm honest.
If I try to put myself in a Tory Member's shoes I struggle even further to get it.
I agree. The current Conservative membership seem more RNC than small c.
I wouldn't go that far, but I don't really see what his pitch would be, his narrative for recovery that he could sell to them.
Maybe I'm too jaded?
Just whenever they've had the chance they've chosen to compound the madness. Johnson, Truss & now Badenoch seems the favourite and a probable RNC speaker for 2028.
What do the Americans get out of UK politicians abasing themselves across the pond? Sure, who doesn't love a good abasement, but when it's no longer a novelty I don't see the appeal.
Thatcher and Churchill and Blair were former UK PMs with huge name recognition and respect in the US who could command huge speaking fees and get big audiences speaking there.
Truss by contrast has neither and probably gets no bigger an audience than the average US House representative if that and most of the audience she does get will be largely ultra libertarian ideologues like her
Why Kamala Harris isn't much of a success at identity poliitcs: Her father is a mixed-race academic from Jamaica; her mother is an academic from India. So she is, most likely, one-fourth black -- and doesn't look very black.
As a young child she was schooled in both Christian and HIndu teachings.
When she was 12, her mother moved her and her younger sister to Canada. She did not get back to the United States until she chose to attend Howard, a historically black university. (I suspect she chose Howard because of her political ambitions; she thought her best chance was to learn how to at least appear "authentically black".)
She did have an affair with a prominent black California politician, Willie Brown, but she married a Jewish lawyer in the entertainment business. They have no children. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris
At the moment my hunch is that Harris will be the nominee and that she'll win the election in November, but I may change that prediction over the coming weeks and months.
I think if Biden withdraws it is very hard to see beyond Harris. I think the polls underestimate her chances, but I still think it would be exceptionally close. I wouldn't like to say more than a tossup at this stage.
People are saying Biden is too old but I really think the age part isn’t the main problem . There are lots of 80 year olds who are nothing like Biden . He’s frail and can barely muster more than a whisper when he talks .
If he was sharp and clear and incisive then people would overlook physical frailty, IMHO.
It's the fact that his mind wanders and he gets confused. That's the worrying bit. And it doesn't really matter what age he is, it's just that this is how he comes across now, and he's asking people for another 4 years.
People are saying Biden is too old but I really think the age part isn’t the main problem . There are lots of 80 year olds who are nothing like Biden . He’s frail and can barely muster more than a whisper when he talks .
Biden is very old and he looks and sounds it. So long as he looked like he could keep it together that was not a major problem, but he clearly cannot do that.
Trump is almost as old and just as if not more incoherent (and far more dangerous), but he does not look or sound anywhere near as old most of the time, his bizarre ramblings are often energetic. He just doesn't provoke the same worry about fragility, certainly not from his base and, sadly, probably floating voters.
People are saying Biden is too old but I really think the age part isn’t the main problem . There are lots of 80 year olds who are nothing like Biden . He’s frail and can barely muster more than a whisper when he talks .
True, I know a few people slightly older than Biden who are as sharp as ever, so it isn't just age.
People are saying Biden is too old but I really think the age part isn’t the main problem . There are lots of 80 year olds who are nothing like Biden . He’s frail and can barely muster more than a whisper when he talks .
True, I know a few people slightly older than Biden who are as sharp as ever, so it isn't just age.
I suspect those you know are not also President of the United States - it's a stressful job at any age after all, probably wears you down!
Incredible. Stumbled across a social media vid of Liz Truss telling GB News (and part-time MP) Farage why she thinks Trump needs to win.
Because Biden has been weak president: "war in ukraine".
These people are no longer even remotely in touch with actual reality. They live in a social media echo chamber and that is their world.
The GOP veep has literally said he doesn't care one way or the other whether Ukr loses and is desperate for Trump to negotiate a peace based on giving up annexed land.
People are saying Biden is too old but I really think the age part isn’t the main problem . There are lots of 80 year olds who are nothing like Biden . He’s frail and can barely muster more than a whisper when he talks .
True, I know a few people slightly older than Biden who are as sharp as ever, so it isn't just age.
I suspect those you know are not also President of the United States - it's a stressful job at any age after all, probably wears you down!
Forgive me, I haven’t been following US politics particularly closely - can someone summarise for me, please, why is everyone so down on Harris’s chances in the general?
Like, I can read the polls, but is she like, hopeless on stage? Or a whack job, policy wise?
None of those things. Her previous experience is as largely as a somewhat effective prosecutor.
I think there's a degree of misogyny with Harris. A black woman who is also liberal is someone who doesn't know their place. We can say this is all very bad, but if she does become presidential candidate she will have to find a way to overcome the prejudice against her. Not certain she will.
Not entirely true, Michelle Obama polls way better than Harris and is a liberal black woman too.
The difference is she has charisma, Harris makes Hillary Clinton look like a woman with the common touch
Michelle Obama has never stood for high office and always felt she has been held back. Her biggest political role has been First Lady of the United States, where the word "decorum" was used a lot to describe her, thereby confirming the stereotype of a black woman knowing her place.
Leave it out. Decorum is the stock in trade of first ladies of any colour.
Exactly, Melania wasn’t doing Victoria’s Secret lingerie catwalks after Donald was elected. She showed decorum.
Just to demonstrate her decorum here is a picture of her before First Lady decorum.
As a reminder, Melania entered the US on an O1,"Genius" visa.
The O1 exceptional talent visa has always been wideranging:
Now, the definition of "performer", of course, ranges too...
A friend was granted one of these for software development because H1(B) had run out. The criteria are very much based on external validation. Having published books or papers, or having appeared in newspaper articles is the thing. Actual talent is less important.
Prediction: if Kemi wins she wont still be leading the tories by 2028 GE.
She would be a passable LOTO, as she is quite articulate at set pieces.
She just won't put in the work behind the scenes to sort out the Tory's electability problem because she doesn't understand why they lost.
They lost mainly as they leaked to Reform. Tories + Reform's combined voteshare was 38%, more than Labour's 33%.
If the right can be united again the next general election is certainly winnable for the Conservatives if the economy is poor under Starmer's government
The Conservatives lost 7 million votes on July 4th - they polled nearly 14 million in December 2019, less than 7 million on July 4th.
TBP polled 645,000 in 2019 - Reform polled 4.1 million so let's call it a gain of 3.5 million.
In other words, at most, HALF the Conservative loss went to Reform and it's probably not even that as Reform attracted support in Labour areas.
There's plenty of evidence, as has been repeatedly pointed out to you, Reform voters are NOT Conservative voters but if you want to carry on with that delusion, fine. It took eight years and three defeats last time before you saw sense - probably 15 years and three defeats before you understand how politics really works.
Yes they lost voters to stay at home too, hence turnout fell to under 60%.
In 1997 the Tories had a charismatic centrist opponent as PM and Labour leader in Blair, Starmer is a dull Brownite social democrat, not in the same league. So GE victory is perfectly possible again if the 2019 coalition Boris built can be rebuilt
Am I the only one finding it unlikely Starmer will fight another election? I mean. He'll be 66, and asking us to elect him till he's 71. Can't imagine any electorate thinking that is a good idea... Hang on.
Good question. If he has a big ego, he's got to want two terms or at least a term and a half. But does he?
We don't know. If he could stabilise the shitshow, take some very unpopular decisions, and take the grief on himself, before handing on to someone more appealing? That seems to have been the strategy in Opposition. But a succession of comedy own goals has gifted him power. We don't really know much about his character. He's inscrutable for a PM.
But early for this debate.
But I doubt being 66 at date of next GE is going to be a factor.
Incredible. Stumbled across a social media vid of Liz Truss telling GB News (and part-time MP) Farage why she thinks Trump needs to win.
Because Biden has been weak president: "war in ukraine".
These people are no longer even remotely in touch with actual reality. They live in a social media echo chamber and that is their world.
The GOP veep has literally said he doesn't care one way or the other whether Ukr loses and is desperate for Trump to negotiate a peace based on giving up annexed land.
That's not weak though.
Jeez.
The more we see of Truss the more you realise why she was utterly unsuited for the highest political office in the land.
She has a tenuous grasp on reality and a frightening lack of self-awareness.
She bears a grudge against Biden because she thinks the US establishment was another player in the vast conspiracy that brought her down rather than the fact she couldn't do economics or government properly.
Tory MPs of the time have a lot to answer for. I'd say the membership too, but to be fair to them to choice was between Truss and Sunak, neither of whom were ready to be PM.
Why Kamala Harris isn't much of a success at identity poliitcs: Her father is a mixed-race academic from Jamaica; her mother is an academic from India. So she is, most likely, one-fourth black -- and doesn't look very black.
As a young child she was schooled in both Christian and HIndu teachings.
When she was 12, her mother moved her and her younger sister to Canada. She did not get back to the United States until she chose to attend Howard, a historically black university. (I suspect she chose Howard because of her political ambitions; she thought her best chance was to learn how to at least appear "authentically black".)
She did have an affair with a prominent black California politician, Willie Brown, but she married a Jewish lawyer in the entertainment business. They have no children. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris
At the moment my hunch is that Harris will be the nominee and that she'll win the election in November, but I may change that prediction over the coming weeks and months.
I think if Biden withdraws it is very hard to see beyond Harris. I think the polls underestimate her chances, but I still think it would be exceptionally close. I wouldn't like to say more than a tossup at this stage.
I think the polls have it about right - she will do pretty much as Biden would have done with it the latest issues.
She isn’t the breakthrough candidates Democrats really need - someone who can fire up the swing states and bring in the undecideds.
Incredible. Stumbled across a social media vid of Liz Truss telling GB News (and part-time MP) Farage why she thinks Trump needs to win.
Because Biden has been weak president: "war in ukraine".
These people are no longer even remotely in touch with actual reality. They live in a social media echo chamber and that is their world.
The GOP veep has literally said he doesn't care one way or the other whether Ukr loses and is desperate for Trump to negotiate a peace based on giving up annexed land.
That's not weak though.
Jeez.
The more we see of Truss the more you realise why she was utterly unsuited for the highest political office in the land.
She has a tenuous grasp on reality and a frightening lack of self-awareness.
She bears a grudge against Biden because she thinks the US establishment was another player in the vast conspiracy that brought her down rather than the fact she couldn't do economics or government properly.
Tory MPs of the time have a lot to answer for. I'd say the membership too, but to be fair to them to choice was between Truss and Sunak, neither of whom were ready to be PM.
Liz Trump is apparently following the Kremlin line that Trump is the Savior of Ukraine.
Same egregious nonsensical nonsense all to frequently bilge-pumped on PB by leading Putin-pimp & Trump fluffer.
Perhaps the (alleged) author of "Ten Years to Save the West" is just too dim a bulb to realize this? Hope so!
He talked before the last election as if he was going to do one term and then usher in a new generation . If he had done that then the situation now would have been far better .
What exactly will the Dems do if he has another debate disaster . You can’t run a campaign living in fear of another Biden meltdown.
Incredible. Stumbled across a social media vid of Liz Truss telling GB News (and part-time MP) Farage why she thinks Trump needs to win.
Because Biden has been weak president: "war in ukraine".
These people are no longer even remotely in touch with actual reality. They live in a social media echo chamber and that is their world.
The GOP veep has literally said he doesn't care one way or the other whether Ukr loses and is desperate for Trump to negotiate a peace based on giving up annexed land.
That's not weak though.
Jeez.
The more we see of Truss the more you realise why she was utterly unsuited for the highest political office in the land.
She has a tenuous grasp on reality and a frightening lack of self-awareness.
She bears a grudge against Biden because she thinks the US establishment was another player in the vast conspiracy that brought her down rather than the fact she couldn't do economics or government properly.
Tory MPs of the time have a lot to answer for. I'd say the membership too, but to be fair to them to choice was between Truss and Sunak, neither of whom were ready to be PM.
How. I mean HOW did she get a degree from Oxford?
Do they do a degree in Unreality and Delusion Studies?
Wee bit of good news re the Microsoft-CloudStrike computer cluster-feck:
Seattle Times - VoteWA's brief outage had minimal impacts
VoteWA, the statewide elections management system, was down for a few hours Friday morning but the outage had minimal impacts, according to King County Elections.
“It’s so early in the election cycle we were able to keep our teams busy with some non-computer-based work,” communications manager Halei Watkins said.
Ballots for the August primary election were put in the mail Wednesday, Watkins said, so that process wasn’t impacted by the outage.
SSI - State of WA was lucky in that, by law, the main drop of outgoing election ballots for our August 6 vote-by-mail primary had to be posted by today, Friday.
Incredible. Stumbled across a social media vid of Liz Truss telling GB News (and part-time MP) Farage why she thinks Trump needs to win.
Because Biden has been weak president: "war in ukraine".
These people are no longer even remotely in touch with actual reality. They live in a social media echo chamber and that is their world.
The GOP veep has literally said he doesn't care one way or the other whether Ukr loses and is desperate for Trump to negotiate a peace based on giving up annexed land.
That's not weak though.
Jeez.
The more we see of Truss the more you realise why she was utterly unsuited for the highest political office in the land.
She has a tenuous grasp on reality and a frightening lack of self-awareness.
She bears a grudge against Biden because she thinks the US establishment was another player in the vast conspiracy that brought her down rather than the fact she couldn't do economics or government properly.
Tory MPs of the time have a lot to answer for. I'd say the membership too, but to be fair to them to choice was between Truss and Sunak, neither of whom were ready to be PM.
How. I mean HOW did she get a degree from Oxford?
Do they do a degree in Unreality and Delusion Studies?
Or as Boris Johnson (the J.D Vance of the UK) might put it, studium erroris et inscientia?
Neither Biden nor Harris can possibly win the 2024 election. If they believe their own rhetoric about the danger to the Republic, they both need to withdraw from the race immediately.
Incredible. Stumbled across a social media vid of Liz Truss telling GB News (and part-time MP) Farage why she thinks Trump needs to win.
Because Biden has been weak president: "war in ukraine".
These people are no longer even remotely in touch with actual reality. They live in a social media echo chamber and that is their world.
The GOP veep has literally said he doesn't care one way or the other whether Ukr loses and is desperate for Trump to negotiate a peace based on giving up annexed land.
That's not weak though.
Jeez.
The more we see of Truss the more you realise why she was utterly unsuited for the highest political office in the land.
She has a tenuous grasp on reality and a frightening lack of self-awareness.
She bears a grudge against Biden because she thinks the US establishment was another player in the vast conspiracy that brought her down rather than the fact she couldn't do economics or government properly.
Tory MPs of the time have a lot to answer for. I'd say the membership too, but to be fair to them to choice was between Truss and Sunak, neither of whom were ready to be PM.
How. I mean HOW did she get a degree from Oxford?
Do they do a degree in Unreality and Delusion Studies?
How long before Starmer has to make this speech? Doubt it will be so good.
He was a class act. I did not agree with everything Blair did, and at times he could infuriate me to the point of apoplexy, but as time has gone by I have realised more and more what a talented politician he was.
Biden's campaign will most likely be over by 72 hours from now. That's what all the signs seem to be pointing to.
I’ll believe it when I see it . It’s beginning to look like Downfall 2024. Those around Biden seem to be in denial or can’t bear to think they might be out of a job .
Neither Biden nor Harris can possibly win the 2024 election. If they believe their own rhetoric about the danger to the Republic, they both need to withdraw from the race immediately.
Do you think, on balance, that the Democratic Convention will come up with a strong candidate? How sure can we be that they would be stronger than Harris?
I spoke with @realDonaldTrump to congratulate him on the Republican nomination and condemn the shocking assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. I wished him strength and absolute safety in the future.
I noted the vital bipartisan and bicameral American support for protecting our nation's freedom and independence.
Ukraine will always be grateful to the United States for its help in strengthening our ability to resist Russian terror. Russian attacks on our cities and villages continue every day.
We agreed with President Trump to discuss at a personal meeting what steps can make peace fair and truly lasting.
BBC News - Tories add to front bench from post-election ranks
Rishi Sunak has made more appointments to his interim opposition team, with four in ten Tory MPs now holding frontbench roles.
The former prime minister has made a string of junior appointments after confirming his shadow cabinet last week.
In a sign of the party's reduced ranks after its election thrashing, several now have more than one role, with Hamble Valley MP Paul Holmes holding three. . . .
The latest raft of appointments means 51 of the 121 Conservative MPs elected now have roles on the party's front bench.
Neither Biden nor Harris can possibly win the 2024 election. If they believe their own rhetoric about the danger to the Republic, they both need to withdraw from the race immediately.
Do you think, on balance, that the Democratic Convention will come up with a strong candidate? How sure can we be that they would be stronger than Harris?
Sherrod Brown has joined the calls to end this.
He's right and a very big name to be joining the calls.
Neither Biden nor Harris can possibly win the 2024 election. If they believe their own rhetoric about the danger to the Republic, they both need to withdraw from the race immediately.
Do you think, on balance, that the Democratic Convention will come up with a strong candidate? How sure can we be that they would be stronger than Harris?
I mean there's a reasonable chance the candidate they come up with will be Harris? But I think they're very focused on winning at this point and the delegates are Biden delegates so they're not going to pick someone unelectable for ideological reasons.
The problem isn't that they'd make the wrong pick, it's that the candidates might all tear each other apart in the process.
Incredible. Stumbled across a social media vid of Liz Truss telling GB News (and part-time MP) Farage why she thinks Trump needs to win.
Because Biden has been weak president: "war in ukraine".
These people are no longer even remotely in touch with actual reality. They live in a social media echo chamber and that is their world.
The GOP veep has literally said he doesn't care one way or the other whether Ukr loses and is desperate for Trump to negotiate a peace based on giving up annexed land.
That's not weak though.
Jeez.
The more we see of Truss the more you realise why she was utterly unsuited for the highest political office in the land.
She has a tenuous grasp on reality and a frightening lack of self-awareness.
She bears a grudge against Biden because she thinks the US establishment was another player in the vast conspiracy that brought her down rather than the fact she couldn't do economics or government properly.
Tory MPs of the time have a lot to answer for. I'd say the membership too, but to be fair to them to choice was between Truss and Sunak, neither of whom were ready to be PM.
How. I mean HOW did she get a degree from Oxford?
Do they do a degree in Unreality and Delusion Studies?
Yes, it's called Politics, Philosophy and Economics.
Neither Biden nor Harris can possibly win the 2024 election. If they believe their own rhetoric about the danger to the Republic, they both need to withdraw from the race immediately.
Do you think, on balance, that the Democratic Convention will come up with a strong candidate? How sure can we be that they would be stronger than Harris?
The main issue is coming up with a ticket which features a race/gender split. If Harris continues as VP they need a white man for Prez. If they choose, say, Whitmer for Prez, they need to find a black man for Veep.
The Republicans don’t need to worry about these issues.
Re: Ukraine President Zelenskyy's message to Donald Trump, extremely unfortunate AND dangerous, that "the vital bipartisan and bicameral American support for protecting our nation's freedom and independence" does NOT include DJT or JDV.
Neither Biden nor Harris can possibly win the 2024 election. If they believe their own rhetoric about the danger to the Republic, they both need to withdraw from the race immediately.
Do you think, on balance, that the Democratic Convention will come up with a strong candidate? How sure can we be that they would be stronger than Harris?
I mean there's a reasonable chance the candidate they come up with will be Harris? But I think they're very focused on winning at this point and the delegates are Biden delegates so they're not going to pick someone unelectable for ideological reasons.
The problem isn't that they'd make the wrong pick, it's that the candidates would all tear each other apart in the process.
I don't think that matters.
If the convention is an absolute blitz of row and argument and voting then a) it focuses back to Dems and away from the Trump reality tv show b) reminds america that it lives in a vibrant, argumentative and at times wild democracy and c) hands up a fresh and new candidate and then a reset can be switched in in time for traditional Labor day when the public finally focusses on the choice ahead.
Biden's campaign will most likely be over by 72 hours from now. That's what all the signs seem to be pointing to.
I’ll believe it when I see it . It’s beginning to look like Downfall 2024. Those around Biden seem to be in denial or can’t bear to think they might be out of a job .
The clips of Jen O'Malley Dillon seem to me to be her saying all the right words and yet something in the body language says - 'yeh, we know, this gig is up'.
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
How long before Starmer has to make this speech? Doubt it will be so good.
Thanks for posting that, I hadn't seen that clip before.
It's worth noting the specific first term achievements that Blair was citing. National minimum wage, the new pensioners winter fuel allowance, the working families tax credit and the New Deal programme to tackle unemployment. All Labour initiatives that materially and directly improved the finances of those who really needed financial help.
Starmer's problem is going to be that the flagship policies he's initially focusing on won't have such a direct financial effect on the personal finances of those struggling to make ends meet. There will need to be more of substance offered down the road if the charge of "you've done nothing" isn't going to stick. Blair was able to rhetorically raise and debunk that charge in the clip you posted, will Starmer be able to in due course?
How long before Starmer has to make this speech? Doubt it will be so good.
Thanks for posting that, I hadn't seen that clip before.
It's worth noting the specific first term achievements that Blair was citing. National minimum wage, the new pensioners winter fuel allowance, the working families tax credit and the New Deal programme to tackle unemployment. All Labour initiatives that materially and directly improved the finances of those who really needed financial help.
Starmer's problem is going to be that the flagship policies he's initially focusing on won't have such a direct financial effect on the personal finances of those struggling to make ends meet. There will need to be more of substance offered down the road if the charge of "you've done nothing" isn't going to stick. Blair was able to rhetorically raise and debunk that charge in the clip you posted, will Starmer be able to in due course?
I hadn't seen the clip before - or at least had no memory of it. It appeared randomly on my Twitter feed thanks to Musk's weird algorithm.
An interesting bit is when Blair praises Brown, who is sat waiting to speak next, and Brown starts fiddling with his jacket and brushing imaginary dust of it.
"Secluded in Delaware, Biden Stews at Allies’ Pressure to Drop Out of the Race
As he recovers from Covid at his beach house, President Biden is said to have grown resentful toward Democratic leaders and former President Barack Obama."
Neither Biden nor Harris can possibly win the 2024 election. If they believe their own rhetoric about the danger to the Republic, they both need to withdraw from the race immediately.
Do you think, on balance, that the Democratic Convention will come up with a strong candidate? How sure can we be that they would be stronger than Harris?
I mean there's a reasonable chance the candidate they come up with will be Harris? But I think they're very focused on winning at this point and the delegates are Biden delegates so they're not going to pick someone unelectable for ideological reasons.
The problem isn't that they'd make the wrong pick, it's that the candidates would all tear each other apart in the process.
I don't think that matters.
If the convention is an absolute blitz of row and argument and voting then a) it focuses back to Dems and away from the Trump reality tv show b) reminds america that it lives in a vibrant, argumentative and at times wild democracy and c) hands up a fresh and new candidate and then a reset can be switched in in time for traditional Labor day when the public finally focusses on the choice ahead.
Roll the dice Dems. Roll the dice...
I don't think the voters would see it as a reminder of their vibrant democracy, I think they'd see it as a shit show with a divided party squabbling with itself instead of dealing with their problems. But I agree they should roll the dice.
If I was Biden I think I'd do either President Kamala (which has high variance, and they need high variance as they're losing) or try to stitch something up before the convention. A floor fight among delegates elected for somebody else isn't a particularly democratic way of deciding something so you could come up with something better. For instance, make a jury of some random primary voters, some delegates and some party bigwigs and instruct them to recommend the candidate most likely to beat Trump. Give the candidates a week to make their case, have the jury consult with the people at home and vote to recommend one of them. Unless it all went hideously pear-shaped the Biden delegates would vote for whoever they chose. That way you can do the normal stage-managed convention but you're not stuck with Kamala purely as next-in-line if it seems like there's a better option.
Basically I reckon Biden plus a few bigwigs can design whatever process they like at this point and the delegates will go along with it. But nobody knows what's in Biden's head...
"Secluded in Delaware, Biden Stews at Allies’ Pressure to Drop Out of the Race
As he recovers from Covid at his beach house, President Biden is said to have grown resentful toward Democratic leaders and former President Barack Obama."
Rightly so as it was Democratic leaders and Obama who told Biden to let Hillary be nominee in 2016 which promptly saw her lose the election to Trump. Biden then had to rescue the Democrats by beating Trump in 2020
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
"Secluded in Delaware, Biden Stews at Allies’ Pressure to Drop Out of the Race
As he recovers from Covid at his beach house, President Biden is said to have grown resentful toward Democratic leaders and former President Barack Obama."
Rightly so as it was Democratic leaders and Obama who told Biden to let Hillary be nominee in 2016 which promptly saw her lose the election to Trump. Biden then had to rescue the Democrats by beating Trump in 2020
Biden didn't rescue the democrats, introduction of mass postal ballots, under the pretence of Covid did.
"Activists lawyers are spreading “distressing and dangerous” claims that transgender children will kill themselves because of a ban on puberty blockers, a government review has found.
Professor Louis Appleby, the government’s adviser on suicide prevention, found that there was no evidence to support claims of a “surge” in suicides among trans children.
The Good Law Project, a campaign group led by the barrister Jolyon Maugham, has repeatedly invoked statistics on social media purporting to show an “explosion” in deaths among children being treated for gender dysphoria at the Tavistock and Portman NHS trust."
Crowdstrike down 9% now the market is open. Massive win for anyone who followed my tip that it was a screaming buy at -20% premarket
Just seen this and your reasoning. It's the kind of reasoning I'd find compelling 90% of the time but this feels like one of the exceptions to me. It's extremely rare I make a short stocks play but I've shorted it (with very generous stops - a bit over 360) just before the close tonight at roughly 304. While I understand the inertia argument and I think that's what's winning the day in the market, I don't think market has grasped just how much of a fuck up this is and I'm expecting horror stories over the weekend and next few days.
(I also think it's fundamentally massively overvalued anyway but that wouldn't be a reason to short a tech stock most of the time, heh)
It's a right bugger that it had dropped so much in the preceeding days otherwise it would be a no brainer.
Anyway, we'll see. I don't do this much so read into that what you will...
From that For Whatever It's Worth Department . . .
Joe & Jill Biden's Delaware Beach house is located at Rehoboth Beach on the Atlantic coast, just south of Cape Henlopen, the southern entrance to Chesapeake Bay.
By chance, my father and his family used to spend their summers before WWII in that area, which along with nearby Lewes, Del. is a traditional summer holiday destination for people in Philadelphia & most of eastern Pennsylvania. Jersey shore also a destination for Philly & burbs, but the Delaware shore was more convenient for my dad's family up in the Allegheny mountains.
Keep in mind, that summer or winter, Delaware is as much a state of mind as a State in the Union.
"Secluded in Delaware, Biden Stews at Allies’ Pressure to Drop Out of the Race
As he recovers from Covid at his beach house, President Biden is said to have grown resentful toward Democratic leaders and former President Barack Obama."
Rightly so as it was Democratic leaders and Obama who told Biden to let Hillary be nominee in 2016 which promptly saw her lose the election to Trump. Biden then had to rescue the Democrats by beating Trump in 2020
Biden didn't rescue the democrats, introduction of mass postal ballots, under the pretence of Covid did.
Word "pretence" doing lot of heavy lifting above.
In USA as in UK, during the Pandemic millions were unable or ill-advised on medical grounds not to vote in person, particular IF alternative was available. The process was facilitated by changes in legislation & regulations, but driven from the bottom up by voter demand.
In many (but certainly not all) states & counties, boosting turnout tends to help Democrats, but note that COVID restrictions also impacted early voting which probably mostly did NOT help the Dems.
Further note that the move to increased postal and early in-person voting predates the Pandemic in many states. Oregon and Washington State being pioneers, starting in the last decades of the 2nd millennium, with the movement led in the beginning and well into the middle by Republicans such as WA Secretaries of State Ralph Munro and Sam Reed.
ADDENDUM - Introduction in WA State of all vote-by-mail for every election (with option of in-person voting in one or more voting centers per county) was started in REPUBLICAN counties, especially in eastern WA, which did it for budgetary reasons (to save money) AND also to boost local voter turnout, as good civics AND good politics for GOP. These counties were also reimbursed in part by State of WA for outgoing bulk-rate postage & other related costs.
HOWEVER, Republicans from Sec of State down, were less supportive when increasingly Democratic King County also asked for same deal. Finally the King Co. Election Director just did it anyway, and essentially sent the SoS the bill, and State of WA decided to pay it, and extend all vote-by-mail to all 39 counties, big and small, Republican or not.
"Trump Gunman Flew Drone Over Rally Site Hours Before Attempted Assassination Discovery adds to growing list of stunning security lapses that almost led to former president’s killing"
With respect to fact that currently 42% of Conservative MPs have an official position (some more than one) in the new Tory shadow cabinet -
- after the 1935 general election, the National Labour Party which along with Conservatives and Liberal Nationals was part of the National Government, elected less-than-grand total of 8 MPs.
Of whom 7 were in the National government, including former PM Ramsey Macdonald and his son Malcolm, also . . . wait for it . . . Lord De La Warr,
The sole Nat Lab backbench MP was Harold Nicholson. Who devoted his time outside of government (sorta) to his writing, in particular his Diaries which are a valuable and entertaining source for UK history in general and Parliament in particular from 1935-45.
Prediction: if Kemi wins she wont still be leading the tories by 2028 GE.
She would be a passable LOTO, as she is quite articulate at set pieces.
She just won't put in the work behind the scenes to sort out the Tory's electability problem because she doesn't understand why they lost.
They lost mainly as they leaked to Reform. Tories + Reform's combined voteshare was 38%, more than Labour's 33%.
If the right can be united again the next general election is certainly winnable for the Conservatives if the economy is poor under Starmer's government
The Conservatives lost 7 million votes on July 4th - they polled nearly 14 million in December 2019, less than 7 million on July 4th.
TBP polled 645,000 in 2019 - Reform polled 4.1 million so let's call it a gain of 3.5 million.
In other words, at most, HALF the Conservative loss went to Reform and it's probably not even that as Reform attracted support in Labour areas.
There's plenty of evidence, as has been repeatedly pointed out to you, Reform voters are NOT Conservative voters but if you want to carry on with that delusion, fine. It took eight years and three defeats last time before you saw sense - probably 15 years and three defeats before you understand how politics really works.
Yes they lost voters to stay at home too, hence turnout fell to under 60%.
In 1997 the Tories had a charismatic centrist opponent as PM and Labour leader in Blair, Starmer is a dull Brownite social democrat, not in the same league. So GE victory is perfectly possible again if the 2019 coalition Boris built can be rebuilt
Am I the only one finding it unlikely Starmer will fight another election? I mean. He'll be 66, and asking us to elect him till he's 71. Can't imagine any electorate thinking that is a good idea... Hang on.
If Trump wins in November, Boris will be fancying repeating the trick here again with an ageing dull Starmer facing the fate of Biden
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
And exactly the opposite of what Tories should be doing. Which is why Farage won a seat
Rory Stewart was on Triggernometry earlier in the month talking about some of his experiences with the civil service in the Foreign Office. His Syria team, who were advising him on the civil war at the time, were relocated to East Kilbride; and they weren't allowed to fly to London to attend briefings because of a 'carbon audit'. The expert on Libya was a 'job share' post, so a different person for half of the week. Obviously the government were not able to correct any of this, despite being the government.
The reality is that for many people, Trump and Farage offer a more coherant view of the world than the prevailing liberal/left 'woke establishment' worldview. Even if you percieve the problem and the dangers of right wing populism, there is a strong argument that the system needs to be massively disrupted to be more effective.
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
And exactly the opposite of what Tories should be doing. Which is why Farage won a seat
Rory Stewart was on Triggernometry earlier in the month talking about some of his experiences with the civil service in the Foreign Office. His Syria team, who were advising him on the civil war at the time, were relocated to East Kilbride; and they weren't allowed to fly to London to attend briefings because of a 'carbon audit'. The expert on Libya was a 'job share' post, so a different person for half of the week. Obviously the government were not able to correct any of this, despite being the government.
The reality is that for many people, Trump and Farage offer a more coherant view of the world than the prevailing liberal/left 'woke establishment' worldview. Even if you percieve the problem and the dangers of right wing populism, there is a strong argument that the system needs to be massively disrupted to be more effective.
Really great to see people like you converted to the Rory Cause!
In other gambling related IT fuck ups - the national lottery website is down with a message essentially saying they forgot to renew the domain name.
That should be fun in the morning.
It looks like the National Lottery people might have fixed the domain name but their DNS is all over the shop depending which DNS servers you use, so the site is effectively down or so slow and incomplete it might as well be down, depending how dns resolves.
Teachers and NHS workers should get 5.5% pay rises, independent pay review bodies suggest
Move would cost £3.5billion and create a headache for Rachel Reeves ahead of first budget, which is now expected in October
If Reeves and Starmer reject recommendations they face risk of industrial action from unions
Pay review body advice reflects similar pay rises in the private sector. There are already significant issues with both retention and recruitment, particularly for teachers
Starmer and Reeves to make a decision in the next fortnight before Parliament rises
The Economist: Gretchen Whitmer would like to be America’s first woman president: could abortion rights and “fixing the damn roads” take Michigan’s governor to the White House?
"Secluded in Delaware, Biden Stews at Allies’ Pressure to Drop Out of the Race
As he recovers from Covid at his beach house, President Biden is said to have grown resentful toward Democratic leaders and former President Barack Obama."
Rightly so as it was Democratic leaders and Obama who told Biden to let Hillary be nominee in 2016 which promptly saw her lose the election to Trump. Biden then had to rescue the Democrats by beating Trump in 2020
Whether or not people think Biden would have won against Trump in 2016 - which of course we can't really know - that doesn't make it reasonable for Biden to resent what his colleagues are saying now. Given that he has difficulty speaking coherently and remembering the names of his Cabinet.
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
And exactly the opposite of what Tories should be doing. Which is why Farage won a seat
Rory Stewart was on Triggernometry earlier in the month talking about some of his experiences with the civil service in the Foreign Office. His Syria team, who were advising him on the civil war at the time, were relocated to East Kilbride; and they weren't allowed to fly to London to attend briefings because of a 'carbon audit'. The expert on Libya was a 'job share' post, so a different person for half of the week. Obviously the government were not able to correct any of this, despite being the government.
The reality is that for many people, Trump and Farage offer a more coherant view of the world than the prevailing liberal/left 'woke establishment' worldview. Even if you percieve the problem and the dangers of right wing populism, there is a strong argument that the system needs to be massively disrupted to be more effective.
The reason half the team were in Scotland was the botched merger of FCO and DFID by the last government as DFID were based there. If they had been kept as separate departments it wouldn't have been an issue.
The Tories shouldn't blame the CS for its own cock ups.
The Economist: Gretchen Whitmer would like to be America’s first woman president: could abortion rights and “fixing the damn roads” take Michigan’s governor to the White House?
This is part of the problem. It's either Biden, Harris, or one of several others including Whitmer, and the only question is the degree of Democrat infighting (or civil war to be melodramatic) because there is no agreed contender and not even consensus that Biden should step down.
So yes, it might be Whitmer, or anyone else really.
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
Not Medical Students, these are at the other end, newly qualified doctors. This is the Foundation Programme for the first 2 years of qualification.
The idea was to allocate doctors more evenly around the country in order to level up. Nothing to do with diversity. It is so that some of the best get sent to places like Boston rather than them get the least qualified.
It's a stupid system as it ignores that these are professionals with lives outside work who may need to stay in particular places for family or other reasons. Sorting it out is one of the cost free ways of improving junior doctors morale.
Good morning from a very sweaty BHX departures. Arrived at the airport hotel just after midnight following the “have you turned it off and back on again” Pendolino fail fun.
By some minor miracle my Loganair flight home is running in time! Perhaps Loganair are running Linux systems…
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
And exactly the opposite of what Tories should be doing. Which is why Farage won a seat
Rory Stewart was on Triggernometry earlier in the month talking about some of his experiences with the civil service in the Foreign Office. His Syria team, who were advising him on the civil war at the time, were relocated to East Kilbride; and they weren't allowed to fly to London to attend briefings because of a 'carbon audit'. The expert on Libya was a 'job share' post, so a different person for half of the week. Obviously the government were not able to correct any of this, despite being the government.
Why does it matter if they are in East Kilbride or SW1 to get a briefing on Syria? They are only looking at a fucking PowerPoint while wishing they were doing anything else. It's not like they were trying to go to Deir ez-Zor.
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
Not Medical Students, these are at the other end, newly qualified doctors. This is the Foundation Programme for the first 2 years of qualification.
The idea was to allocate doctors more evenly around the country in order to level up. Nothing to do with diversity. It is so that some of the best get sent to places like Boston rather than them get the least qualified.
It's a stupid system as it ignores that these are professionals with lives outside work who may need to stay in particular places for family or other reasons. Sorting it out is one of the cost free ways of improving junior doctors morale.
Can they actually just refuse to go to wherever they're sent?
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
Not Medical Students, these are at the other end, newly qualified doctors. This is the Foundation Programme for the first 2 years of qualification.
The idea was to allocate doctors more evenly around the country in order to level up. Nothing to do with diversity. It is so that some of the best get sent to places like Boston rather than them get the least qualified.
It's a stupid system as it ignores that these are professionals with lives outside work who may need to stay in particular places for family or other reasons. Sorting it out is one of the cost free ways of improving junior doctors morale.
Can they actually just refuse to go to wherever they're sent?
If so, it seems rather a waste of time.
If not, surely that's a breach of human rights.
No, they cannot really refuse. All Foundation posts are in the NHS, and finishing these is a requirement for full entry into the medical register, and progression to GP or Specialist training. If you refuse then your career is over. There weren't enough jobs to go round either...
A daughter of a friend finished Medical School in Norwich was assigned to Cumbria, while her partner was allocated to Devon for example. Eventually they were both sent to Devon but it was a very stressful time for them, through a complex swap.
I think it will fail in its objective too, as someone who really doesn't want to be there and leaves as soon as they can at the weekend is not going to improve care in Boston etc. The system needs to understand why Foundation Trainees don't want to go to these places and improve training there.
To be fair, something like 75% got their first choice of region, but there are some people really pissed off about being sent to Northern Ireland, which is the least favoured region.
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
Not Medical Students, these are at the other end, newly qualified doctors. This is the Foundation Programme for the first 2 years of qualification.
The idea was to allocate doctors more evenly around the country in order to level up. Nothing to do with diversity. It is so that some of the best get sent to places like Boston rather than them get the least qualified.
It's a stupid system as it ignores that these are professionals with lives outside work who may need to stay in particular places for family or other reasons. Sorting it out is one of the cost free ways of improving junior doctors morale.
Can they actually just refuse to go to wherever they're sent?
If so, it seems rather a waste of time.
If not, surely that's a breach of human rights.
No, they cannot really refuse. All Foundation posts are in the NHS, and finishing these is a requirement for full entry into the medical register, and progression to GP or Specialist training. If you refuse then your career is over. There weren't enough jobs to go round either...
A daughter of a friend finished Medical School in Norwich was assigned to Cumbria, while her partner was allocated to Devon for example. Eventually they were both sent to Devon but it was a very stressful time for them, through a complex swap.
I think it will fail in its objective too, as someone who really doesn't want to be there and leaves as soon as they can at the weekend is not going to improve care in Boston etc. The system needs to understand why Foundation Trainees don't want to go to these places and improve training there.
To be fair, something like 75% got their first choice of region, but there are some people really pissed off about being sent to Northern Ireland, which is the least favoured region.
It is random allocation within regions too, and with no regard to professional ambitions, so Foundation Trainees may be sent to Psychiatry in Leicester rather than Orthopedics in Boston for example.
It's a 2 year programme in 4 month blocks, so there should be some variety over the years, but there should be some choice.
It was 1 year when I did the equivalent 35 years ago, but arranged by the Medical School, so the School balanced it by attaching less popular jobs to popular ones. So in order to get the job in Renal Medicine in London I had to do 6 months General surgery in a small hospital in the Midlands, but it was my free choice to apply. Actually I didn't enjoy the Renal Medicine, but did enjoy the smaller hospital, and have been in the Midlands ever since (apart from an interlude in New Zealand).
Crowdstrike down 9% now the market is open. Massive win for anyone who followed my tip that it was a screaming buy at -20% premarket
Just seen this and your reasoning. It's the kind of reasoning I'd find compelling 90% of the time but this feels like one of the exceptions to me. It's extremely rare I make a short stocks play but I've shorted it (with very generous stops - a bit over 360) just before the close tonight at roughly 304. While I understand the inertia argument and I think that's what's winning the day in the market, I don't think market has grasped just how much of a fuck up this is and I'm expecting horror stories over the weekend and next few days.
(I also think it's fundamentally massively overvalued anyway but that wouldn't be a reason to short a tech stock most of the time, heh)
It's a right bugger that it had dropped so much in the preceeding days otherwise it would be a no brainer.
Anyway, we'll see. I don't do this much so read into that what you will...
Apparently the CEO and founder of Crowdstrike was CTO of McAfee in 2010 when it had a major glitch with Widows XP - which caused McAfee to be bought by Intel.
Teachers and NHS workers should get 5.5% pay rises, independent pay review bodies suggest
Move would cost £3.5billion and create a headache for Rachel Reeves ahead of first budget, which is now expected in October
If Reeves and Starmer reject recommendations they face risk of industrial action from unions
Pay review body advice reflects similar pay rises in the private sector. There are already significant issues with both retention and recruitment, particularly for teachers
Starmer and Reeves to make a decision in the next fortnight before Parliament rises
Crowdstrike down 9% now the market is open. Massive win for anyone who followed my tip that it was a screaming buy at -20% premarket
Just seen this and your reasoning. It's the kind of reasoning I'd find compelling 90% of the time but this feels like one of the exceptions to me. It's extremely rare I make a short stocks play but I've shorted it (with very generous stops - a bit over 360) just before the close tonight at roughly 304. While I understand the inertia argument and I think that's what's winning the day in the market, I don't think market has grasped just how much of a fuck up this is and I'm expecting horror stories over the weekend and next few days.
(I also think it's fundamentally massively overvalued anyway but that wouldn't be a reason to short a tech stock most of the time, heh)
It's a right bugger that it had dropped so much in the preceeding days otherwise it would be a no brainer.
Anyway, we'll see. I don't do this much so read into that what you will...
Apparently the CEO and founder of Crowdstrike was CTO of McAfee in 2010 when it had a major glitch with Widows XP - which caused McAfee to be bought by Intel.
Prediction: if Kemi wins she wont still be leading the tories by 2028 GE.
She would be a passable LOTO, as she is quite articulate at set pieces.
She just won't put in the work behind the scenes to sort out the Tory's electability problem because she doesn't understand why they lost.
They lost mainly as they leaked to Reform. Tories + Reform's combined voteshare was 38%, more than Labour's 33%.
If the right can be united again the next general election is certainly winnable for the Conservatives if the economy is poor under Starmer's government
The Conservatives lost 7 million votes on July 4th - they polled nearly 14 million in December 2019, less than 7 million on July 4th.
TBP polled 645,000 in 2019 - Reform polled 4.1 million so let's call it a gain of 3.5 million.
In other words, at most, HALF the Conservative loss went to Reform and it's probably not even that as Reform attracted support in Labour areas.
There's plenty of evidence, as has been repeatedly pointed out to you, Reform voters are NOT Conservative voters but if you want to carry on with that delusion, fine. It took eight years and three defeats last time before you saw sense - probably 15 years and three defeats before you understand how politics really works.
Yes they lost voters to stay at home too, hence turnout fell to under 60%.
In 1997 the Tories had a charismatic centrist opponent as PM and Labour leader in Blair, Starmer is a dull Brownite social democrat, not in the same league. So GE victory is perfectly possible again if the 2019 coalition Boris built can be rebuilt
Am I the only one finding it unlikely Starmer will fight another election? I mean. He'll be 66, and asking us to elect him till he's 71. Can't imagine any electorate thinking that is a good idea... Hang on.
Why not serve a full second term and then let another candidate fight the election at the end of it? I am never really sure why our politicians never think about that one. The position of party leader and PM can be divorced from each other.
Authority
The PM can’t tell people what to do. He has to persuade them. If he isn’t going to be on charge after the next election no one is going to care about what he wants - they will just focus on the party leader
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
Not Medical Students, these are at the other end, newly qualified doctors. This is the Foundation Programme for the first 2 years of qualification.
The idea was to allocate doctors more evenly around the country in order to level up. Nothing to do with diversity. It is so that some of the best get sent to places like Boston rather than them get the least qualified.
It's a stupid system as it ignores that these are professionals with lives outside work who may need to stay in particular places for family or other reasons. Sorting it out is one of the cost free ways of improving junior doctors morale.
Can they actually just refuse to go to wherever they're sent?
If so, it seems rather a waste of time.
If not, surely that's a breach of human rights.
No, they cannot really refuse. All Foundation posts are in the NHS, and finishing these is a requirement for full entry into the medical register, and progression to GP or Specialist training. If you refuse then your career is over. There weren't enough jobs to go round either...
A daughter of a friend finished Medical School in Norwich was assigned to Cumbria, while her partner was allocated to Devon for example. Eventually they were both sent to Devon but it was a very stressful time for them, through a complex swap.
I think it will fail in its objective too, as someone who really doesn't want to be there and leaves as soon as they can at the weekend is not going to improve care in Boston etc. The system needs to understand why Foundation Trainees don't want to go to these places and improve training there.
To be fair, something like 75% got their first choice of region, but there are some people really pissed off about being sent to Northern Ireland, which is the least favoured region.
It is random allocation within regions too, and with no regard to professional ambitions, so Foundation Trainees may be sent to Psychiatry in Leicester rather than Orthopedics in Boston for example.
It's a 2 year programme in 4 month blocks, so there should be some variety over the years, but there should be some choice.
It was 1 year when I did the equivalent 35 years ago, but arranged by the Medical School, so the School balanced it by attaching less popular jobs to popular ones. So in order to get the job in Renal Medicine in London I had to do 6 months General surgery in a small hospital in the Midlands, but it was my free choice to apply. Actually I didn't enjoy the Renal Medicine, but did enjoy the smaller hospital, and have been in the Midlands ever since (apart from an interlude in New Zealand).
My mole in the junior hospital doctor ranks complained also that there is not much notice, which is odd when in theory 99 per cent could be planned years in advance.
Prediction: if Kemi wins she wont still be leading the tories by 2028 GE.
She would be a passable LOTO, as she is quite articulate at set pieces.
She just won't put in the work behind the scenes to sort out the Tory's electability problem because she doesn't understand why they lost.
They lost mainly as they leaked to Reform. Tories + Reform's combined voteshare was 38%, more than Labour's 33%.
If the right can be united again the next general election is certainly winnable for the Conservatives if the economy is poor under Starmer's government
The Conservatives lost 7 million votes on July 4th - they polled nearly 14 million in December 2019, less than 7 million on July 4th.
TBP polled 645,000 in 2019 - Reform polled 4.1 million so let's call it a gain of 3.5 million.
In other words, at most, HALF the Conservative loss went to Reform and it's probably not even that as Reform attracted support in Labour areas.
There's plenty of evidence, as has been repeatedly pointed out to you, Reform voters are NOT Conservative voters but if you want to carry on with that delusion, fine. It took eight years and three defeats last time before you saw sense - probably 15 years and three defeats before you understand how politics really works.
Yes they lost voters to stay at home too, hence turnout fell to under 60%.
In 1997 the Tories had a charismatic centrist opponent as PM and Labour leader in Blair, Starmer is a dull Brownite social democrat, not in the same league. So GE victory is perfectly possible again if the 2019 coalition Boris built can be rebuilt
Am I the only one finding it unlikely Starmer will fight another election? I mean. He'll be 66, and asking us to elect him till he's 71. Can't imagine any electorate thinking that is a good idea... Hang on.
It's not *that* unique. That would make him I think the 3rd oldest since WW2, and the 5th since 1900, on retirement. And there are plenty more just over 70. Plus healthy life expectancy has significantly increased.
Teachers and NHS workers should get 5.5% pay rises, independent pay review bodies suggest
Move would cost £3.5billion and create a headache for Rachel Reeves ahead of first budget, which is now expected in October
If Reeves and Starmer reject recommendations they face risk of industrial action from unions
Pay review body advice reflects similar pay rises in the private sector. There are already significant issues with both retention and recruitment, particularly for teachers
Starmer and Reeves to make a decision in the next fortnight before Parliament rises
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
Not Medical Students, these are at the other end, newly qualified doctors. This is the Foundation Programme for the first 2 years of qualification.
The idea was to allocate doctors more evenly around the country in order to level up. Nothing to do with diversity. It is so that some of the best get sent to places like Boston rather than them get the least qualified.
It's a stupid system as it ignores that these are professionals with lives outside work who may need to stay in particular places for family or other reasons. Sorting it out is one of the cost free ways of improving junior doctors morale.
Can they actually just refuse to go to wherever they're sent?
If so, it seems rather a waste of time.
If not, surely that's a breach of human rights.
No, they cannot really refuse. All Foundation posts are in the NHS, and finishing these is a requirement for full entry into the medical register, and progression to GP or Specialist training. If you refuse then your career is over. There weren't enough jobs to go round either...
A daughter of a friend finished Medical School in Norwich was assigned to Cumbria, while her partner was allocated to Devon for example. Eventually they were both sent to Devon but it was a very stressful time for them, through a complex swap.
I think it will fail in its objective too, as someone who really doesn't want to be there and leaves as soon as they can at the weekend is not going to improve care in Boston etc. The system needs to understand why Foundation Trainees don't want to go to these places and improve training there.
To be fair, something like 75% got their first choice of region, but there are some people really pissed off about being sent to Northern Ireland, which is the least favoured region.
It is random allocation within regions too, and with no regard to professional ambitions, so Foundation Trainees may be sent to Psychiatry in Leicester rather than Orthopedics in Boston for example.
It's a 2 year programme in 4 month blocks, so there should be some variety over the years, but there should be some choice.
It was 1 year when I did the equivalent 35 years ago, but arranged by the Medical School, so the School balanced it by attaching less popular jobs to popular ones. So in order to get the job in Renal Medicine in London I had to do 6 months General surgery in a small hospital in the Midlands, but it was my free choice to apply. Actually I didn't enjoy the Renal Medicine, but did enjoy the smaller hospital, and have been in the Midlands ever since (apart from an interlude in New Zealand).
My mole in the junior hospital doctor ranks complained also that there is not much notice, which is odd when in theory 99 per cent could be planned years in advance.
Yes, even a few weeks ago some FY Trainees didn't know which hospital let alone hospital they would be at in August.
It's a bodged scheme in conception, but the implementation is also poor. It's what happens when you strip out "pen-pushers" at Health Education England to favour "front line services" when making cuts. You get hopeless administrative cock ups in "front line services".
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
And exactly the opposite of what Tories should be doing. Which is why Farage won a seat
Rory Stewart was on Triggernometry earlier in the month talking about some of his experiences with the civil service in the Foreign Office. His Syria team, who were advising him on the civil war at the time, were relocated to East Kilbride; and they weren't allowed to fly to London to attend briefings because of a 'carbon audit'. The expert on Libya was a 'job share' post, so a different person for half of the week. Obviously the government were not able to correct any of this, despite being the government.
The reality is that for many people, Trump and Farage offer a more coherant view of the world than the prevailing liberal/left 'woke establishment' worldview. Even if you percieve the problem and the dangers of right wing populism, there is a strong argument that the system needs to be massively disrupted to be more effective.
I have been working in successful teams with split locations for 20 years where the main, almost only, communication has been via Teams etc. Why does Rory Stewart think this shouldn't work for him? The situation he describes is normal.
I wonder how vigorously she will pursue CPTPP , or where the USA will stand on that when the dust settles ?
I wonder how different history be if Fizzy Lizzy had been left to stick to her brief as Trade Secretary and never been offered or gone hunting for Great Offices of State ?
Teachers and NHS workers should get 5.5% pay rises, independent pay review bodies suggest
Move would cost £3.5billion and create a headache for Rachel Reeves ahead of first budget, which is now expected in October
If Reeves and Starmer reject recommendations they face risk of industrial action from unions
Pay review body advice reflects similar pay rises in the private sector. There are already significant issues with both retention and recruitment, particularly for teachers
Starmer and Reeves to make a decision in the next fortnight before Parliament rises
I see the last Conservative government scrapped the old medical student selection process (which was based in merit) and replaced it with some odd random process to ensure “better diversity”.
And exactly the opposite of what Tories should be doing. Which is why Farage won a seat
Rory Stewart was on Triggernometry earlier in the month talking about some of his experiences with the civil service in the Foreign Office. His Syria team, who were advising him on the civil war at the time, were relocated to East Kilbride; and they weren't allowed to fly to London to attend briefings because of a 'carbon audit'. The expert on Libya was a 'job share' post, so a different person for half of the week. Obviously the government were not able to correct any of this, despite being the government.
The reality is that for many people, Trump and Farage offer a more coherant view of the world than the prevailing liberal/left 'woke establishment' worldview. Even if you percieve the problem and the dangers of right wing populism, there is a strong argument that the system needs to be massively disrupted to be more effective.
I have been working in successful teams with split locations for 20 years where the main, almost only, communication has been via Teams etc. Why does Rory Stewart think this shouldn't work for him? The situation he describes is normal.
Indeed, and when those staff reasonably ask to WFH as all their meetings are via Teams, it's difficult to object.
My brother finished his CS career hardly going to Whitehall because the decentralisation of staff meant all the meetings were on line anyway.
Comments
Amnesty International Australia just sent out confidential notices threatening to purge all members who voted for a resolution at the 2024 AGM condemning the infamous 2022 Amnesty report that blamed Ukraine for their own civilian deaths. The Ukrainian drafter of the resolution received a notice that his membership will be cancelled. I also received a purge threat as well as multiple others.
https://x.com/DrewPavlou/status/1814194865779200410
Just whenever they've had the chance they've chosen to compound the madness. Johnson, Truss & now Badenoch seems the favourite and a probable RNC speaker for 2028.
Truss by contrast has neither and probably gets no bigger an audience than the average US House representative if that and most of the audience she does get will be largely ultra libertarian ideologues like her
It's the fact that his mind wanders and he gets confused. That's the worrying bit. And it doesn't really matter what age he is, it's just that this is how he comes across now, and he's asking people for another 4 years.
Trump is almost as old and just as if not more incoherent (and far more dangerous), but he does not look or sound anywhere near as old most of the time, his bizarre ramblings are often energetic. He just doesn't provoke the same worry about fragility, certainly not from his base and, sadly, probably floating voters.
Because Biden has been weak president: "war in ukraine".
These people are no longer even remotely in touch with actual reality. They live in a social media echo chamber and that is their world.
The GOP veep has literally said he doesn't care one way or the other whether Ukr loses and is desperate for Trump to negotiate a peace based on giving up annexed land.
That's not weak though.
Jeez.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/O_visa
Now, the definition of "performer", of course, ranges too...
A friend was granted one of these for software development because H1(B) had run out. The criteria are very much based on external validation. Having published books or papers, or having appeared in newspaper articles is the thing. Actual talent is less important.
But I doubt being 66 at date of next GE is going to be a factor.
She has a tenuous grasp on reality and a frightening lack of self-awareness.
She bears a grudge against Biden because she thinks the US establishment was another player in the vast conspiracy that brought her down rather than the fact she couldn't do economics or government properly.
Tory MPs of the time have a lot to answer for. I'd say the membership too, but to be fair to them to choice was between Truss and Sunak, neither of whom were ready to be PM.
She isn’t the breakthrough candidates Democrats really need - someone who can fire up the swing states and bring in the undecideds.
"It's not perfect, so you're going to walk away".
https://x.com/OGRolandRat/status/1814027575603458113
How long before Starmer has to make this speech? Doubt it will be so good.
Same egregious nonsensical nonsense all to frequently bilge-pumped on PB by leading Putin-pimp & Trump fluffer.
Perhaps the (alleged) author of "Ten Years to Save the West" is just too dim a bulb to realize this? Hope so!
He talked before the last election as if he was going to do one term and then usher in a new generation . If he had done that then the situation now would have been far better .
What exactly will the Dems do if he has another debate disaster . You can’t run a campaign living in fear of another Biden meltdown.
Do they do a degree in Unreality and Delusion Studies?
Seattle Times - VoteWA's brief outage had minimal impacts
VoteWA, the statewide elections management system, was down for a few hours Friday morning but the outage had minimal impacts, according to King County Elections.
“It’s so early in the election cycle we were able to keep our teams busy with some non-computer-based work,” communications manager Halei Watkins said.
Ballots for the August primary election were put in the mail Wednesday, Watkins said, so that process wasn’t impacted by the outage.
SSI - State of WA was lucky in that, by law, the main drop of outgoing election ballots for our August 6 vote-by-mail primary had to be posted by today, Friday.
https://x.com/jrawson/status/1814232925967089808
Matt Viser
@mviser
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio): “I think the President should end his campaign
https://x.com/mviser/status/1814424581329080830
I spoke with @realDonaldTrump to congratulate him on the Republican nomination and condemn the shocking assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. I wished him strength and absolute safety in the future.
I noted the vital bipartisan and bicameral American support for protecting our nation's freedom and independence.
Ukraine will always be grateful to the United States for its help in strengthening our ability to resist Russian terror. Russian attacks on our cities and villages continue every day.
We agreed with President Trump to discuss at a personal meeting what steps can make peace fair and truly lasting.
Rishi Sunak has made more appointments to his interim opposition team, with four in ten Tory MPs now holding frontbench roles.
The former prime minister has made a string of junior appointments after confirming his shadow cabinet last week.
In a sign of the party's reduced ranks after its election thrashing, several now have more than one role, with Hamble Valley MP Paul Holmes holding three. . . .
The latest raft of appointments means 51 of the 121 Conservative MPs elected now have roles on the party's front bench.
He's right and a very big name to be joining the calls.
The problem isn't that they'd make the wrong pick, it's that the candidates might all tear each other apart in the process.
I will be stunned if Biden doesn't end his covid home break by going on national tv to hand the torch.
But what do I know? He's a stubborn man. And his wife is even more stubborn.
The Republicans don’t need to worry about these issues.
If the convention is an absolute blitz of row and argument and voting then a) it focuses back to Dems and away from the Trump reality tv show b) reminds america that it lives in a vibrant, argumentative and at times wild democracy and c) hands up a fresh and new candidate and then a reset can be switched in in time for traditional Labor day when the public finally focusses on the choice ahead.
Roll the dice Dems. Roll the dice...
https://x.com/_cjevanss/status/1813990323560796574?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg
On the face of it, totally batshit.
It's worth noting the specific first term achievements that Blair was citing. National minimum wage, the new pensioners winter fuel allowance, the working families tax credit and the New Deal programme to tackle unemployment. All Labour initiatives that materially and directly improved the finances of those who really needed financial help.
Starmer's problem is going to be that the flagship policies he's initially focusing on won't have such a direct financial effect on the personal finances of those struggling to make ends meet. There will need to be more of substance offered down the road if the charge of "you've done nothing" isn't going to stick. Blair was able to rhetorically raise and debunk that charge in the clip you posted, will Starmer be able to in due course?
An interesting bit is when Blair praises Brown, who is sat waiting to speak next, and Brown starts fiddling with his jacket and brushing imaginary dust of it.
As he recovers from Covid at his beach house, President Biden is said to have grown resentful toward Democratic leaders and former President Barack Obama."
https://www.nytimes.com/
squabbling with itself instead of dealing with their problems. But I agree they should roll the dice.
If I was Biden I think I'd do either President Kamala (which has high variance, and they need high variance as they're losing) or try to stitch something up before the convention. A floor fight among delegates elected for somebody else isn't a particularly democratic way of deciding something so you could come up with something better. For instance, make a jury of some random primary voters, some delegates and some party bigwigs and instruct them to recommend the candidate most likely to beat Trump. Give the candidates a week to make their case, have the jury consult with the people at home and vote to recommend one of them. Unless it all went hideously pear-shaped the Biden delegates would vote for whoever they chose. That way you can do the normal stage-managed convention but you're not stuck with Kamala purely as next-in-line if it seems like there's a better option.
Basically I reckon Biden plus a few bigwigs can design whatever process they like at this point and the delegates will go along with it. But nobody knows what's in Biden's head...
"Activists lawyers are spreading “distressing and dangerous” claims that transgender children will kill themselves because of a ban on puberty blockers, a government review has found.
Professor Louis Appleby, the government’s adviser on suicide prevention, found that there was no evidence to support claims of a “surge” in suicides among trans children.
The Good Law Project, a campaign group led by the barrister Jolyon Maugham, has repeatedly invoked statistics on social media purporting to show an “explosion” in deaths among children being treated for gender dysphoria at the Tavistock and Portman NHS trust."
https://www.thetimes.com/article/aff73b8a-7935-4c5d-a347-33b8595585c7
(I also think it's fundamentally massively overvalued anyway but that wouldn't be a reason to short a tech stock most of the time, heh)
It's a right bugger that it had dropped so much in the preceeding days otherwise it would be a no brainer.
Anyway, we'll see. I don't do this much so read into that what you will...
Joe & Jill Biden's Delaware Beach house is located at Rehoboth Beach on the Atlantic coast, just south of Cape Henlopen, the southern entrance to Chesapeake Bay.
By chance, my father and his family used to spend their summers before WWII in that area, which along with nearby Lewes, Del. is a traditional summer holiday destination for people in Philadelphia & most of eastern Pennsylvania. Jersey shore also a destination for Philly & burbs, but the Delaware shore was more convenient for my dad's family up in the Allegheny mountains.
Keep in mind, that summer or winter, Delaware is as much a state of mind as a State in the Union.
In USA as in UK, during the Pandemic millions were unable or ill-advised on medical grounds not to vote in person, particular IF alternative was available. The process was facilitated by changes in legislation & regulations, but driven from the bottom up by voter demand.
In many (but certainly not all) states & counties, boosting turnout tends to help Democrats, but note that COVID restrictions also impacted early voting which probably mostly did NOT help the Dems.
Further note that the move to increased postal and early in-person voting predates the Pandemic in many states. Oregon and Washington State being pioneers, starting in the last decades of the 2nd millennium, with the movement led in the beginning and well into the middle by Republicans such as WA Secretaries of State Ralph Munro and Sam Reed.
So there!
That should be fun in the morning.
ADDENDUM - Introduction in WA State of all vote-by-mail for every election (with option of in-person voting in one or more voting centers per county) was started in REPUBLICAN counties, especially in eastern WA, which did it for budgetary reasons (to save money) AND also to boost local voter turnout, as good civics AND good politics for GOP. These counties were also reimbursed in part by State of WA for outgoing bulk-rate postage & other related costs.
HOWEVER, Republicans from Sec of State down, were less supportive when increasingly Democratic King County also asked for same deal. Finally the King Co. Election Director just did it anyway, and essentially sent the SoS the bill, and State of WA decided to pay it, and extend all vote-by-mail to all 39 counties, big and small, Republican or not.
"Trump Gunman Flew Drone Over Rally Site Hours Before Attempted Assassination
Discovery adds to growing list of stunning security lapses that almost led to former president’s killing"
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-gunman-flew-drone-over-rally-site-hours-before-attempted-assassination-2d0e2e1a
- after the 1935 general election, the National Labour Party which along with Conservatives and Liberal Nationals was part of the National Government, elected less-than-grand total of 8 MPs.
Of whom 7 were in the National government, including former PM Ramsey Macdonald and his son Malcolm, also . . . wait for it . . . Lord De La Warr,
The sole Nat Lab backbench MP was Harold Nicholson. Who devoted his time outside of government (sorta) to his writing, in particular his Diaries which are a valuable and entertaining source for UK history in general and Parliament in particular from 1935-45.
Jonathan Freedland
Were the president to stand down – soon – the dynamics of this fateful election could quickly shift in the Democrats’ favour"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/19/donald-trump-run-good-luck-joe-biden-democrats
The reality is that for many people, Trump and Farage offer a more coherant view of the world than the prevailing liberal/left 'woke establishment' worldview. Even if you percieve the problem and the dangers of right wing populism, there is a strong argument that the system needs to be massively disrupted to be more effective.
1) Previous pay rises were unfunded and have left rather a lot of schools in serious financial difficulty;
2) Pensions contributions are about to go up again, ditto.
The £3.5 billion isn't the start. Finding money to sort out these other issues and THEN find £3.5 billion will be the fun bit.
The Tories shouldn't blame the CS for its own cock ups.
So yes, it might be Whitmer, or anyone else really.
The idea was to allocate doctors more evenly around the country in order to level up. Nothing to do with diversity. It is so that some of the best get sent to places like Boston rather than them get the least qualified.
It's a stupid system as it ignores that these are professionals with lives outside work who may need to stay in particular places for family or other reasons. Sorting it out is one of the cost free ways of improving junior doctors morale.
By some minor miracle my Loganair flight home is running in time! Perhaps Loganair are running Linux systems…
If so, it seems rather a waste of time.
If not, surely that's a breach of human rights.
A daughter of a friend finished Medical School in Norwich was assigned to Cumbria, while her partner was allocated to Devon for example. Eventually they were both sent to Devon but it was a very stressful time for them, through a complex swap.
I think it will fail in its objective too, as someone who really doesn't want to be there and leaves as soon as they can at the weekend is not going to improve care in Boston etc. The system needs to understand why Foundation Trainees don't want to go to these places and improve training there.
To be fair, something like 75% got their first choice of region, but there are some people really pissed off about being sent to Northern Ireland, which is the least favoured region.
It's a 2 year programme in 4 month blocks, so there should be some variety over the years, but there should be some choice.
It was 1 year when I did the equivalent 35 years ago, but arranged by the Medical School, so the School balanced it by attaching less popular jobs to popular ones. So in order to get the job in Renal Medicine in London I had to do 6 months General surgery in a small hospital in the Midlands, but it was my free choice to apply. Actually I didn't enjoy the Renal Medicine, but did enjoy the smaller hospital, and have been in the Midlands ever since (apart from an interlude in New Zealand).
She's going to need that spare capacity in the system for incoming privateers.
The PM can’t tell people what to do. He has to persuade them. If he isn’t going to be on charge after the next election no one is going to care about what he wants - they will just focus on the party leader
(Chamberlain / Churchill plis Campbell-Bannerman / Salisbury respectively.)
And of course 70-71 is only just over retirement age
And lots and lots of Victorians.
I think the main determinant will be performance.
Why are B and M only two apart on my keyboard?
An article on the BBC website about the IT SNAFU uses the phrase "ATM machines".
That would be Automatic Teller Machine machines.
The standards of journalism today.
It's a bodged scheme in conception, but the implementation is also poor. It's what happens when you strip out "pen-pushers" at Health Education England to favour "front line services" when making cuts. You get hopeless administrative cock ups in "front line services".
I wonder how vigorously she will pursue CPTPP , or where the USA will stand on that when the dust settles ?
I wonder how different history be if Fizzy Lizzy had been left to stick to her brief as Trade Secretary and never been offered or gone hunting for Great Offices of State ?
Why are I and U only one apart on my keyboard?
My brother finished his CS career hardly going to Whitehall because the decentralisation of staff meant all the meetings were on line anyway.