"Supply exceeds demand 64% of the time, so, lacking any suitable storage technology, we'd be throwing out 120 TWh of power, worth well over £10 billion, every year. That's perhaps £500 per household chucked down the drain."
How can power produced in excess of what can be used have a value? It is, by definition, worth nothing. Also the assumption that we'd have no suitable storage technology is a bit of a biggie, especially given the possibility of using car batteries for storage.
Edit: The obvious way to go is to improve connectivity with other countries. After all, the wind is always blowing somewhere.
Stupid question but if it isn't stored somewhere, where does it all go?
I vaguely recall something complicated about using frequency to balance it from physics at school.
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
If you keep me you keep Harris as VP candidate and her black support though without her dragging the ticket down as nominee with white working class voters I connect better with in the rustbelt
"Supply exceeds demand 64% of the time, so, lacking any suitable storage technology, we'd be throwing out 120 TWh of power, worth well over £10 billion, every year. That's perhaps £500 per household chucked down the drain."
How can power produced in excess of what can be used have a value? It is, by definition, worth nothing. Also the assumption that we'd have no suitable storage technology is a bit of a biggie, especially given the possibility of using car batteries for storage.
Edit: The obvious way to go is to improve connectivity with other countries. After all, the wind is always blowing somewhere.
Stupid question but if it isn't stored somewhere, where does it all go?
I vaguely recall something complicated about using frequency to balance it from physics at school.
I'm no expert, but I imagine you just wouldn't generate it. That is, you'd feather the blades or put the brakes on or whatever they do to stop wind turbines from generating electricity.
Whereupon you still pay the suppliers for what the generated power and subsidy would have earned them.
The whole political satire industry frankly. It's like when Trump wasn't in office, it's much harder to make fun of people you agree with
Oh I'm sure the DEI chiefs will ensure there's a healthy supply of satirists with right-wing views. After all, they have a genuine passion for diversity, right? Right?
"Supply exceeds demand 64% of the time, so, lacking any suitable storage technology, we'd be throwing out 120 TWh of power, worth well over £10 billion, every year. That's perhaps £500 per household chucked down the drain."
How can power produced in excess of what can be used have a value? It is, by definition, worth nothing. Also the assumption that we'd have no suitable storage technology is a bit of a biggie, especially given the possibility of using car batteries for storage.
Edit: The obvious way to go is to improve connectivity with other countries. After all, the wind is always blowing somewhere.
I agree, his calculations and assumptions are very strange.
Starting with "120 GWh of power" - that is a unit of ENERGY.
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
If you keep me you keep Harris as VP candidate and her black support though without her dragging the ticket down as nominee with white working class voters I connect better with in the rustbelt
"Supply exceeds demand 64% of the time, so, lacking any suitable storage technology, we'd be throwing out 120 TWh of power, worth well over £10 billion, every year. That's perhaps £500 per household chucked down the drain."
How can power produced in excess of what can be used have a value? It is, by definition, worth nothing. Also the assumption that we'd have no suitable storage technology is a bit of a biggie, especially given the possibility of using car batteries for storage.
Edit: The obvious way to go is to improve connectivity with other countries. After all, the wind is always blowing somewhere.
All this was fairly obvious a decade ago. In that time UK governments have been slow timing grid upgrades, or getting significant battery production going here.
Whether they shift the dial will be another test of the new government. They do seem to have some idea of what needs to be done in speeding up planning, but I'll only believe it when I see new development started.
"Supply exceeds demand 64% of the time, so, lacking any suitable storage technology, we'd be throwing out 120 TWh of power, worth well over £10 billion, every year. That's perhaps £500 per household chucked down the drain."
How can power produced in excess of what can be used have a value? It is, by definition, worth nothing. Also the assumption that we'd have no suitable storage technology is a bit of a biggie, especially given the possibility of using car batteries for storage.
Edit: The obvious way to go is to improve connectivity with other countries. After all, the wind is always blowing somewhere.
The imputed value of power not pruduced that could have been produced without cost if there had been somewhere to put the electricity.
I'd be interested to see the sums that give £10 billion/year from that bit of word salad.
"Supply exceeds demand 64% of the time, so, lacking any suitable storage technology, we'd be throwing out 120 TWh of power, worth well over £10 billion, every year. That's perhaps £500 per household chucked down the drain."
How can power produced in excess of what can be used have a value? It is, by definition, worth nothing. Also the assumption that we'd have no suitable storage technology is a bit of a biggie, especially given the possibility of using car batteries for storage.
Edit: The obvious way to go is to improve connectivity with other countries. After all, the wind is always blowing somewhere.
How much Bitcoin could the state mine with data centres for the excess power 8) ?
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
If you keep me you keep Harris as VP candidate and her black support though without her dragging the ticket down as nominee with white working class voters I connect better with in the rustbelt
Well that would be very shocking if true.
HYUFD is indulging in fantasy. That 'trump card' is his invention - and completely outside of Biden's power anyway. Either he quits voluntarily, or he doesn't; that's the only significant decision really open to him.
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
If you keep me you keep Harris as VP candidate and her black support though without her dragging the ticket down as nominee with white working class voters I connect better with in the rustbelt
Well that would be very shocking if true.
But the only countries you can connect to are the nearby ones that have much the same wind conditions as us most of the time?
The principal interconnectors (with France) are to enable France to off its excess nuclear baseload capacity given that it is not easy to switch nuclear power stations off and on.
Build them on the basis of swapping spare wind power and most of the time you will both be trying to export or import to each other at the same time.
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
You do realise that the two polls you quoted earlier - one showing Whitmer doing better than Harris, and the other showing Shapiro doing better than Harris - were in the states where Whitmer and Shapiro are governors?
The whole political satire industry frankly. It's like when Trump wasn't in office, it's much harder to make fun of people you agree with
Yeah, but this is why stuff like MTW and HIGNFY were objectively better under Labour - the time has to be filled so they had to work at what they were doing rather than resort to uninventive kneejerk "Evil Tories".
"Supply exceeds demand 64% of the time, so, lacking any suitable storage technology, we'd be throwing out 120 TWh of power, worth well over £10 billion, every year. That's perhaps £500 per household chucked down the drain."
How can power produced in excess of what can be used have a value? It is, by definition, worth nothing. Also the assumption that we'd have no suitable storage technology is a bit of a biggie, especially given the possibility of using car batteries for storage.
Edit: The obvious way to go is to improve connectivity with other countries. After all, the wind is always blowing somewhere.
I agree, his calculations and assumptions are very strange.
I think we should start with this 2015 baseline for wind conditions. The thread is assuming a generating capacity of 90GW, compared to 13.6GW in 2015. Using 2024 would mean a starting point of 30GW, so a 3x rather than a 6.5x extrapolation.
Stupid question but if it isn't stored somewhere, where does it all go?
I vaguely recall something complicated about using frequency to balance it from physics at school.
Exactly this. If input exceeds output the grid speeds up, otherwise it slows down.
The mandate is 50Hz but only averaged over some period. The spot frequency varies
I am sure there are some actual electricity supply experts on here but according to the National Grid website they have a mandate "to keep the system frequency at 50 Hz, with a statutory limit of 0.5 Hz above or below this value."
Looking at the most recent files of readings at one second intervals (not 'averaged over some period') they appear to keep the frequency between 49.9 and 50.1 Hz.
I went to a talk a few years ago where a very good speaker was advocating installing massive over-capacity - enough wind turbines to meet our needs even on days without much wind. I think the one issue that needs to be addressed is ensuring contracts don't commit to paying the generator when their electricity is not needed.
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
If you keep me you keep Harris as VP candidate and her black support though without her dragging the ticket down as nominee with white working class voters I connect better with in the rustbelt
Well that would be very shocking if true.
But the only countries you can connect to are the nearby ones that have much the same wind conditions as us most of the time?
The principal interconnectors (with France) are to enable France to off its excess nuclear baseload capacity given that it is not easy to switch nuclear power stations off and on.
Build them on the basis of swapping spare wind power and most of the time you will both be trying to export or import to each other at the same time.
I didn't expect this sort of reply, but I'm sure you have your reasons.
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
You do realise that the two polls you quoted earlier - one showing Whitmer doing better than Harris, and the other showing Shapiro doing better than Harris - were in the states where Whitmer and Shapiro are governors?
You'd guarantee their state but lose the other's and probably Wisconsin as well.
FWIW, I woke up this morning within a few minutes of Microsoft headquarters, saw stories about airline problems on a local TV news program, finished breakfast, turned on a Windows 10 desktop, and haven't noticed any problems.
Another example of the advantages of decentralization? Which are real, as are the advantages of centralization. (It's my semi-informed opinion that, globally, we have gone too far toward centralization in both governments and economies in recent years.)
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
If you keep me you keep Harris as VP candidate and her black support though without her dragging the ticket down as nominee with white working class voters I connect better with in the rustbelt
Well that would be very shocking if true.
But the only countries you can connect to are the nearby ones that have much the same wind conditions as us most of the time?
The principal interconnectors (with France) are to enable France to off its excess nuclear baseload capacity given that it is not easy to switch nuclear power stations off and on.
Build them on the basis of swapping spare wind power and most of the time you will both be trying to export or import to each other at the same time.
I didn't expect this sort of reply, but I'm sure you have your reasons.
This UnHerd article makes the common mistake of stating that until 1998 an MP had to wear a top hat while making a point of order. In fact they only had to wear one if they were raising a point of order during a division, not the rest of the time.
And, of we're going all Chesterton's Fence about it, there was a rationale- if people are moving about, you need a distinctive visible method of signalling.
(I think they used collapsible top hats so that they could easily frisbee them across the chamber. However, I don't think the top hat bit was mandatory; on at least one occasion, a knotted hanky was used.)
My BBC Guide to Parliament (1979) says the rule was that the head should be "covered", and mentions the collapsible hats kept for that purpose.
Bagehot. Constitutions have performative and dignified (occasionally undignified) bits in them. This is not a problem, like the old rules for taking the tea interval in cricket, which were a bit like the old rules for barring an entail. The problem is when what should be the efficient bits of the constitution - like PMQs and debates generally - become performative and not efficient.
FWIW, I woke up this morning within a few minutes of Microsoft headquarters, saw stories about airline problems on a local TV news program, finished breakfast, turned on a Windows 10 desktop, and haven't noticed any problems.
Another example of the advantages of decentralization? Which are real, as are the advantages of centralization. (It's my semi-informed opinion that, globally, we have gone too far toward centralization in both governments and economies in recent years.)
Struggling to work out how you trun this morning's issues into an example of the advantages of decentralization?
The (tenuous) advantages of decivilization, maybe.
I always find it amusing that when London detective Jack Slipper went to Brazil in 1974 in order to apprehend Ronnie Biggs, he was surprised when his attempt to arrest him in a hotel in Rio didn't automatically carry any weight with the Brazilian government / legal system.
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
If you keep me you keep Harris as VP candidate and her black support though without her dragging the ticket down as nominee with white working class voters I connect better with in the rustbelt
Well that would be very shocking if true.
But the only countries you can connect to are the nearby ones that have much the same wind conditions as us most of the time?
The principal interconnectors (with France) are to enable France to off its excess nuclear baseload capacity given that it is not easy to switch nuclear power stations off and on.
Build them on the basis of swapping spare wind power and most of the time you will both be trying to export or import to each other at the same time.
With long distance HV interconnects, that's not actually the case - and the planning over the next decade is for an extended Europe wide grid. The amount of unused renewable capacity is a strong incentive to build them.
"Supply exceeds demand 64% of the time, so, lacking any suitable storage technology, we'd be throwing out 120 TWh of power, worth well over £10 billion, every year. That's perhaps £500 per household chucked down the drain."
How can power produced in excess of what can be used have a value? It is, by definition, worth nothing. Also the assumption that we'd have no suitable storage technology is a bit of a biggie, especially given the possibility of using car batteries for storage.
Edit: The obvious way to go is to improve connectivity with other countries. After all, the wind is always blowing somewhere.
Stupid question but if it isn't stored somewhere, where does it all go?
I vaguely recall something complicated about using frequency to balance it from physics at school.
I'm no expert, but I imagine you just wouldn't generate it. That is, you'd feather the blades or put the brakes on or whatever they do to stop wind turbines from generating electricity.
Whereupon you still pay the suppliers for what the generated power and subsidy would have earned them.
We also pay despatchable generators for not generating when not required under the capacity market.
If you have an OCGT, the last thing you want to do is generate leccy.
"Supply exceeds demand 64% of the time, so, lacking any suitable storage technology, we'd be throwing out 120 TWh of power, worth well over £10 billion, every year. That's perhaps £500 per household chucked down the drain."
How can power produced in excess of what can be used have a value? It is, by definition, worth nothing. Also the assumption that we'd have no suitable storage technology is a bit of a biggie, especially given the possibility of using car batteries for storage.
Edit: The obvious way to go is to improve connectivity with other countries. After all, the wind is always blowing somewhere.
Unless I've got the wrong end of the stick, through payments to windfarms when the power is not required:
"This means that the government is having to pay huge sums in curtailment fees to wind farm owners to switch off turbines when they are generating more power than is needed. Some £210m ($267m) of curtailment payments were made to renewable energy generators to curtail output in 2022, said the report With the UK planning to grow its offshore wind capacity from 14GW today to 50GW by 2030, the report says that curtailment costs are expected to rise to £3.5bn annually by the end of the decade."
Stupid question but if it isn't stored somewhere, where does it all go?
I vaguely recall something complicated about using frequency to balance it from physics at school.
Exactly this. If input exceeds output the grid speeds up, otherwise it slows down.
The mandate is 50Hz but only averaged over some period. The spot frequency varies
I am sure there are some actual electricity supply experts on here but according to the National Grid website they have a mandate "to keep the system frequency at 50 Hz, with a statutory limit of 0.5 Hz above or below this value."
Looking at the most recent files of readings at one second intervals (not 'averaged over some period') they appear to keep the frequency between 49.9 and 50.1 Hz.
I went to a talk a few years ago where a very good speaker was advocating installing massive over-capacity - enough wind turbines to meet our needs even on days without much wind. I think the one issue that needs to be addressed is ensuring contracts don't commit to paying the generator when their electricity is not needed.
They keep copies of the Radio Times in the management centers. When 1 million people switch on their kettles during the adverts in Corrie the frequency dips...
They have to anticipate spikes in demand and bring power online before they happen, speeding it up as they do
I have visited the Central Scotland control room, although many of the power stations there have since been decommissioned.
"Supply exceeds demand 64% of the time, so, lacking any suitable storage technology, we'd be throwing out 120 TWh of power, worth well over £10 billion, every year. That's perhaps £500 per household chucked down the drain."
How can power produced in excess of what can be used have a value? It is, by definition, worth nothing. Also the assumption that we'd have no suitable storage technology is a bit of a biggie, especially given the possibility of using car batteries for storage.
Edit: The obvious way to go is to improve connectivity with other countries. After all, the wind is always blowing somewhere.
Stupid question but if it isn't stored somewhere, where does it all go?
I vaguely recall something complicated about using frequency to balance it from physics at school.
I'm no expert, but I imagine you just wouldn't generate it. That is, you'd feather the blades or put the brakes on or whatever they do to stop wind turbines from generating electricity.
Whereupon you still pay the suppliers for what the generated power and subsidy would have earned them.
We also pay despatchable generators for not generating when not required under the capacity market.
If you have an OCGT, the last thing you want to do is generate leccy.
Of course. And more and more of late, as the grid deliberately constrains gas rather than wind, adding to the 'cost of gas power generation' when it really isn't; it's a cost of having more wind.
"Supply exceeds demand 64% of the time, so, lacking any suitable storage technology, we'd be throwing out 120 TWh of power, worth well over £10 billion, every year. That's perhaps £500 per household chucked down the drain."
How can power produced in excess of what can be used have a value? It is, by definition, worth nothing. Also the assumption that we'd have no suitable storage technology is a bit of a biggie, especially given the possibility of using car batteries for storage.
Edit: The obvious way to go is to improve connectivity with other countries. After all, the wind is always blowing somewhere.
Stupid question but if it isn't stored somewhere, where does it all go?
I vaguely recall something complicated about using frequency to balance it from physics at school.
I'm no expert, but I imagine you just wouldn't generate it. That is, you'd feather the blades or put the brakes on or whatever they do to stop wind turbines from generating electricity.
Whereupon you still pay the suppliers for what the generated power and subsidy would have earned them.
We also pay despatchable generators for not generating when not required under the capacity market.
If you have an OCGT, the last thing you want to do is generate leccy.
Of course. And more and more of late, as the grid deliberately constrains gas rather than wind, adding to the 'cost of gas power generation' when it really isn't; it's a cost of having more wind.
Of course it does. CCGTs with significant OPEX (fuel and ETS costs) will always come below renewables with essentially zero OPEX in the merit order.
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
If you keep me you keep Harris as VP candidate and her black support though without her dragging the ticket down as nominee with white working class voters I connect better with in the rustbelt
Well that would be very shocking if true.
But the only countries you can connect to are the nearby ones that have much the same wind conditions as us most of the time?
The principal interconnectors (with France) are to enable France to off its excess nuclear baseload capacity given that it is not easy to switch nuclear power stations off and on.
Build them on the basis of swapping spare wind power and most of the time you will both be trying to export or import to each other at the same time.
With long distance HV interconnects, that's not actually the case - and the planning over the next decade is for an extended Europe wide grid. The amount of unused renewable capacity is a strong incentive to build them.
If you are going to build Long distance HV interconnects (and I expect it will be far more complex, costly and time consuming than proponents admit), you would be better off paying Algeria to buy a chunk of desert and connect them to a solar farm. And hope that the cable dosent go the same way as Nordstream.
Stupid question but if it isn't stored somewhere, where does it all go?
I vaguely recall something complicated about using frequency to balance it from physics at school.
Exactly this. If input exceeds output the grid speeds up, otherwise it slows down.
The mandate is 50Hz but only averaged over some period. The spot frequency varies
I am sure there are some actual electricity supply experts on here but according to the National Grid website they have a mandate "to keep the system frequency at 50 Hz, with a statutory limit of 0.5 Hz above or below this value."
Looking at the most recent files of readings at one second intervals (not 'averaged over some period') they appear to keep the frequency between 49.9 and 50.1 Hz.
I went to a talk a few years ago where a very good speaker was advocating installing massive over-capacity - enough wind turbines to meet our needs even on days without much wind. I think the one issue that needs to be addressed is ensuring contracts don't commit to paying the generator when their electricity is not needed.
They keep copies of the Radio Times in the management centers. When 1 million people switch on their kettles during the adverts in Corrie the frequency dips...
They have to anticipate spikes in demand and bring power online before they happen, speeding it up as they do
I have visited the Central Scotland control room, although many of the power stations there have since been decommissioned.
I am not sure Corrie has anything like that effect these days. England in the Euro finals maybe.
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
If you keep me you keep Harris as VP candidate and her black support though without her dragging the ticket down as nominee with white working class voters I connect better with in the rustbelt
Well that would be very shocking if true.
But the only countries you can connect to are the nearby ones that have much the same wind conditions as us most of the time?
The principal interconnectors (with France) are to enable France to off its excess nuclear baseload capacity given that it is not easy to switch nuclear power stations off and on.
Build them on the basis of swapping spare wind power and most of the time you will both be trying to export or import to each other at the same time.
With long distance HV interconnects, that's not actually the case - and the planning over the next decade is for an extended Europe wide grid. The amount of unused renewable capacity is a strong incentive to build them.
If you are going to build Long distance HV interconnects (and I expect it will be far more complex, costly and time consuming than proponents admit), you would be better off paying Algeria to buy a chunk of desert and connect them to a solar farm. And hope that the cable dosent go the same way as Nordstream.
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
You do realise that the two polls you quoted earlier - one showing Whitmer doing better than Harris, and the other showing Shapiro doing better than Harris - were in the states where Whitmer and Shapiro are governors?
Yes and they are 2 out of the 3 key states the Dems must win to retain the White House and their majority in the EC, ie Michigan, PA and Wisconsin.
Arizona and Georgia saw narrower Biden leads in 2020 over Trump and they can afford to lose those and still win the EC with the Hillary 2016 states and the 3 key rustbelt states. Yet lose the rustbelt 3 Hillary lost in 2016 but Biden won in 2020 and it is President Trump again
Today was supposed to be what happened if the millenium bug wasn't fixed.
The lesson. The cost of trying to prevent it probably exceeded the cost of it happening by a factor of 100. When IT crap happens life carries on and people find workarounds.
A better use for the money would be to assume your IT would pack up one day and work on resilience methods to carry on without it.
Ah, the idiots view of the millennium bug.
What actually happened was that a problem was recognised. Testing showed that it was a big problem, for many organisations. A lot of time and effort was spent on fixing the problem.
As a result of the fixes, the problem didn’t cause a disaster.
There were some critical systems that needed sorting. However most of the money went on replacing systems of no consequence (in a good few cases unnecessarily) based on general hysteria.
Things like planes falling from the sky were never going to happen though.
You know as well as I do that one of the problems of too much process is that it is actually far cheaper to let shit happen and deal with it than pay for all the elaborate processes to stop it.
Of course half the battle is having people experienced enough to know the difference between what will cause a nuisance and what will cause a catastrophe.
Even with catastrophes perception rather than reality rules.
Cut spending on rail safety to the extent that 20 people get killed every two or three years and all hell would break out. **
However if you did that and used the money to fund additional specialist cancer hospitals it would likely save far more lives.
** I am not advocating such a course of action.
Anyone can argue anything they like - perhaps prefaced with "you know as well as I do" as a rhetorical flourish - so long as they don't have to support their views with any form of evidence.
In fact, at least one aircraft required updates, otherwise the navigation would have fucked up.
The problem with process is not process itself. It is *too much* of the *wrong process*
"Supply exceeds demand 64% of the time, so, lacking any suitable storage technology, we'd be throwing out 120 TWh of power, worth well over £10 billion, every year. That's perhaps £500 per household chucked down the drain."
How can power produced in excess of what can be used have a value? It is, by definition, worth nothing. Also the assumption that we'd have no suitable storage technology is a bit of a biggie, especially given the possibility of using car batteries for storage.
Edit: The obvious way to go is to improve connectivity with other countries. After all, the wind is always blowing somewhere.
On our way:
"Since 2010, electricity imports’ share of the UK’s electricity supply has increased, up from 2.0 per cent in 2010 to 9.1 per cent in 2021.
As of March 2022, the UK has seven international interconnectors with a total capacity of 7,440 MW, an almost three-fold increase in capacity since 2010. In the 2020 Energy White Paper, the Government set an ambition of 18 GW of interconnector capacity by 2030, with new interconnectors set to connect the UK to Germany and Denmark."
One suggestion has been to install pumping systems at hydroelectric dams in the countries which have lots of them, so the interconnectors can enable them as remote storage.
Today was supposed to be what happened if the millenium bug wasn't fixed.
The lesson. The cost of trying to prevent it probably exceeded the cost of it happening by a factor of 100. When IT crap happens life carries on and people find workarounds.
A better use for the money would be to assume your IT would pack up one day and work on resilience methods to carry on without it.
Ah, the idiots view of the millennium bug.
What actually happened was that a problem was recognised. Testing showed that it was a big problem, for many organisations. A lot of time and effort was spent on fixing the problem.
As a result of the fixes, the problem didn’t cause a disaster.
There were some critical systems that needed sorting. However most of the money went on replacing systems of no consequence (in a good few cases unnecessarily) based on general hysteria.
Things like planes falling from the sky were never going to happen though.
You know as well as I do that one of the problems of too much process is that it is actually far cheaper to let shit happen and deal with it than pay for all the elaborate processes to stop it.
Of course half the battle is having people experienced enough to know the difference between what will cause a nuisance and what will cause a catastrophe.
Even with catastrophes perception rather than reality rules.
Cut spending on rail safety to the extent that 20 people get killed every two or three years and all hell would break out. **
However if you did that and used the money to fund additional specialist cancer hospitals it would likely save far more lives.
** I am not advocating such a course of action.
Anyone can argue anything they like - perhaps prefaced with "you know as well as I do" as a rhetorical flourish - so long as they don't have to support their views with any form of evidence.
In fact, at least one aircraft required updates, otherwise the navigation would have fucked up.
The problem with process is not process itself. It is *too much* of the *wrong process*
When you don't say 'and would have crashed' I presume you don't say it for a reason?
Or you work for a sensible company that didn't buy the "enterprise grade security" kool-aid, and wasn't affected.
If you haven't had it on for a week I'd imagine it won't have been patched so...
They wake themselves up for updates these days. And sometimes they fail to turn themselves off again and become like a tiny sun incinerating your laptop bag.
Vance is the traditionalist "Rad Trad" Catholic. Biden is the "progressive" (cakeism on Abortion and Contraception etc., God Loves you crap kumbayah liturgies).
Vance is what we call a Crazed Catholic. For whom any Pope left of Benny is a heretic. Whereas THEY are the real schismatics. And a MINORITY of practicing Catholics in the USA.
Raving about guitar masses and the like is IMHO just a smokescreen for very rightwing AND un-Christian views that verge on caesaro-papism and corporatist quasi-fascism, if not actually in those ballparks.
Had an uncle, a Catholic convert, who was quite similar methinks to J.D. Vance. My very Catholic mother and the rest of us used to laugh him being more Catholic than the Pope, which is even more true of JDV in an ideological sense.
Most obnoxious part of my unc's hyper-Catholicism, was his disdain and disrespect for Protestants. Something that I'm guessing Vance may share (conversion to RC perhaps being yet another way of distancing himself from his Scots Irish Appalachian roots) BUT will NOT be highlighting during the upcoming campaign for politically (if not theologically) obvious reasons.
Or you work for a sensible company that didn't buy the "enterprise grade security" kool-aid, and wasn't affected.
Well, let's say, for example, you are a large International concern, that has "enterprise grade security" from an established vendor like, say, Symantec, and despite that you get hit with ransonware because Symantec has no protection against the attack vector they used, so you hire some security consultants who say the way to avoid that specific issue again is to install Crowdstrike on all of your assets.
Hypothetically, if that were to happen, then today, you're fucked...
But the good thing is the same consultants can be hired at great expense to say "ah yes, but of course, what you needed was..." again. More money will be spent and the large concern would be just as fucked next time because the *real* mitigation is to understand how to maintain ops *even when* it all goes to shit.
But you can't distill that onto a single slide with a capex number attached.
I always find it amusing that when London detective Jack Slipper went to Brazil in 1974 in order to apprehend Ronnie Biggs, he was surprised when his attempt to arrest him in a hotel in Rio didn't automatically carry any weight with the Brazilian government / legal system.
I do hope from this process all of those guilty, including politicians past and present, are held to account and it is not just Vennells and that IT clown who are sacrificial lambs.
Looks like Biden's digging in... What a disaster for the US.
If the Dem elite are pushing Harris over Whitmer or Shapiro to replace him as candidate he is right to dig in
Harris seems to be polling worse than Biden but the base would never ever forgive the leadership if they junked the ticket completely. Also black voters would stay at home en masse. So probably Michigan or PA (Or both if neither Whitmer or Shapiro) would be gone.
Hence Biden's trump card, I ain't quitting as nominee for Harris only for Whitmer or Shapiro.
If you keep me you keep Harris as VP candidate and her black support though without her dragging the ticket down as nominee with white working class voters I connect better with in the rustbelt
Well that would be very shocking if true.
But the only countries you can connect to are the nearby ones that have much the same wind conditions as us most of the time?
The principal interconnectors (with France) are to enable France to off its excess nuclear baseload capacity given that it is not easy to switch nuclear power stations off and on.
Build them on the basis of swapping spare wind power and most of the time you will both be trying to export or import to each other at the same time.
With long distance HV interconnects, that's not actually the case - and the planning over the next decade is for an extended Europe wide grid. The amount of unused renewable capacity is a strong incentive to build them.
If you are going to build Long distance HV interconnects (and I expect it will be far more complex, costly and time consuming than proponents admit), you would be better off paying Algeria to buy a chunk of desert and connect them to a solar farm. And hope that the cable dosent go the same way as Nordstream.
"If built, the 4,000 km (2,500 miles) cable will be the world's longest undersea power cable"
"projected to be operational within a decade."
"As of April 2024, the project's developer..has received investments from....raising more than £50 million for the project, with £5 billion of equity finance 'lined up'"
See Hinckley Point, Berlin Airport and Crossrail for further details.
Morroco is probably a better bet than Algeria in terms of avoiding sundry nutters smashing up the generation equipment at the far end though
Do any of us know about Scottish Sentencing Guidelines for Causing Serious Injury by Careless Driving?
I've just read an account of an "Expert Driver" (stunts for C4) who drove straight across a mini roundabout and mowed a cyclist down breaking his shoulder blade (Hi Viz, LED beacon on the cycle), with a witness, and then did the traditional "the cyclist raced out and fell over in front of me" lie to Court, despite different behaviour at the scene. And a "moment of distraction" mitigation.
He was also warned that he could be in contempt of court, when he interrupted the judge.
He was given a £300 fine and a 12 month ban.
I'm interested that that does not even reach the bottom of the scale in England, which for that offence starts at a Community Order and a 12 month ban.
What is the sentencing range in Scotland? @Eabhal ?
I do hope from this process all of those guilty, including politicians past and present, are held to account and it is not just Vennells and that IT clown who are sacrificial lambs.
Vennells is clearly a reason why the cases went on so long. And unsafe witness isn’t really a phrase a non lawyer is going to randomly use when unreliable or similar makes is far more common.
I think Vennells has been caught lying between her statements and the email referenced yesterday. Granted it’s a single phrase “unsafe witness” but it’s a very curious to use unreliable or similar is what I would expect..
Comments
If you keep me you keep Harris as VP candidate and her black support though without her dragging the ticket down as nominee with white working class voters I connect better with in the rustbelt
The mandate is 50Hz but only averaged over some period. The spot frequency varies
Oh I'm sure the DEI chiefs will ensure there's a healthy supply of satirists with right-wing views. After all, they have a genuine passion for diversity, right? Right?
Starting with "120 GWh of power" - that is a unit of ENERGY.
In that time UK governments have been slow timing grid upgrades, or getting significant battery production going here.
Whether they shift the dial will be another test of the new government. They do seem to have some idea of what needs to be done in speeding up planning, but I'll only believe it when I see new development started.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-rachel-reeves-risks-repeating-gordon-brown-s-big-mistake/ar-BB1qdsO6
Many governments hold Bitcoin after confiscating proceeds of crime.
Either he quits voluntarily, or he doesn't; that's the only significant decision really open to him.
The principal interconnectors (with France) are to enable France to off its excess nuclear baseload capacity given that it is not easy to switch nuclear power stations off and on.
Build them on the basis of swapping spare wind power and most of the time you will both be trying to export or import to each other at the same time.
Looking at the most recent files of readings at one second intervals (not 'averaged over some period') they appear to keep the frequency between 49.9 and 50.1 Hz.
https://www.nationalgrideso.com/data-portal/system-frequency-data
I went to a talk a few years ago where a very good speaker was advocating installing massive over-capacity - enough wind turbines to meet our needs even on days without much wind. I think the one issue that needs to be addressed is ensuring contracts don't commit to paying the generator when their electricity is not needed.
Another example of the advantages of decentralization? Which are real, as are the advantages of centralization. (It's my semi-informed opinion that, globally, we have gone too far toward centralization in both governments and economies in recent years.)
The (tenuous) advantages of decivilization, maybe.
I always find it amusing that when London detective Jack Slipper went to Brazil in 1974 in order to apprehend Ronnie Biggs, he was surprised when his attempt to arrest him in a hotel in Rio didn't automatically carry any weight with the Brazilian government / legal system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Slipper#1974_extradition_attempt
https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/322316/download
Particularly page 26
The amount of unused renewable capacity is a strong incentive to build them.
If you have an OCGT, the last thing you want to do is generate leccy.
"This means that the government is having to pay huge sums in curtailment fees to wind farm owners to switch off turbines when they are generating more power than is needed.
Some £210m ($267m) of curtailment payments were made to renewable energy generators to curtail output in 2022, said the report
With the UK planning to grow its offshore wind capacity from 14GW today to 50GW by 2030, the report says that curtailment costs are expected to rise to £3.5bn annually by the end of the decade."
https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/turn-wasted-wind-power-into-green-hydrogen-and-save-uk-billions-study/2-1-1583623
or:
"Wasted wind power adds £40 to household energy costs, says think tank"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67494082
They have to anticipate spikes in demand and bring power online before they happen, speeding it up as they do
I have visited the Central Scotland control room, although many of the power stations there have since been decommissioned.
Meanwhile vast power guzzling data centres etc continue to be built apace.
Nick Wallis"
https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/furious-swinson-throws-vennells-under-the-bus/
Arizona and Georgia saw narrower Biden leads in 2020 over Trump and they can afford to lose those and still win the EC with the Hillary 2016 states and the 3 key rustbelt states. Yet lose the rustbelt 3 Hillary lost in 2016 but Biden won in 2020 and it is President Trump again
The problem with process is not process itself. It is *too much* of the *wrong process*
NEW THREAD
Year || Total energy supply (TWh)
2000 || 2579
2001 || 2592
2002 || 2558
2003 || 2609
2004 || 2572
2005 || 2583
2006 || 2541
2007 || 2451
2008 || 2412
2009 || 2274
2010 || 2359
2011 || 2182
2012 || 2233
2013 || 2196
2014 || 2060
2015 || 2080
2016 || 2053
2017 || 2027
2018 || 2000
2019 || 1923
2020 || 1765
2021 || 1821
2022 || 1793
Raving about guitar masses and the like is IMHO just a smokescreen for very rightwing AND un-Christian views that verge on caesaro-papism and corporatist quasi-fascism, if not actually in those ballparks.
Had an uncle, a Catholic convert, who was quite similar methinks to J.D. Vance. My very Catholic mother and the rest of us used to laugh him being more Catholic than the Pope, which is even more true of JDV in an ideological sense.
Most obnoxious part of my unc's hyper-Catholicism, was his disdain and disrespect for Protestants. Something that I'm guessing Vance may share (conversion to RC perhaps being yet another way of distancing himself from his Scots Irish Appalachian roots) BUT will NOT be highlighting during the upcoming campaign for politically (if not theologically) obvious reasons.
But you can't distill that onto a single slide with a capex number attached.
"If built, the 4,000 km (2,500 miles) cable will be the world's longest undersea power cable"
"projected to be operational within a decade."
"As of April 2024, the project's developer..has received investments from....raising more than £50 million for the project, with £5 billion of equity finance 'lined up'"
See Hinckley Point, Berlin Airport and Crossrail for further details.
Morroco is probably a better bet than Algeria in terms of avoiding sundry nutters smashing up the generation equipment at the far end though
Do any of us know about Scottish Sentencing Guidelines for Causing Serious Injury by Careless Driving?
I've just read an account of an "Expert Driver" (stunts for C4) who drove straight across a mini roundabout and mowed a cyclist down breaking his shoulder blade (Hi Viz, LED beacon on the cycle), with a witness, and then did the traditional "the cyclist raced out and fell over in front of me" lie to Court, despite different behaviour at the scene. And a "moment of distraction" mitigation.
He was also warned that he could be in contempt of court, when he interrupted the judge.
He was given a £300 fine and a 12 month ban.
I'm interested that that does not even reach the bottom of the scale in England, which for that offence starts at a Community Order and a 12 month ban.
What is the sentencing range in Scotland? @Eabhal ?
Report here, Aberdeen Courier:
https://archive.ph/8MoPT
I've adjusted so I'm OK on all three.
I think Vennells has been caught lying between her statements and the email referenced yesterday. Granted it’s a single phrase “unsafe witness” but it’s a very curious to use unreliable or similar is what I would expect..