Barack Obama has moved the Betfair market – politicalbetting.com
Breaking news: Former president Barack Obama has told allies in recent days that President Biden’s path to victory has greatly diminished and he thinks the president needs to seriously consider the viability of his candidacy. https://t.co/4bw9LiMTTJ
Please Allah, don't let it be Newsom or Michelle Obama.
I'm thinking of starting my own conspiracy theory where this whole Dem mess around Biden was started as a plot by friends of Gavin Newsom to install Gavin Newsom.
I think we're at the stage now when having tried to persuade Biden privately they are going public. All still very polite, but I don't see have his candidacy is tenable now.
Presented by Matt Chorley who iirc has been signed up by the BBC now. It is where I spent much of election night. Its budget of £2.50 meant there were no gimmicks like the main channels.
Why not Rishi? He seem much happier now he's not being held hostage.
Has he explicitly refused?
You think Rishi would step down as Tory leader and immediately be appointed Tory leader, pending an election? What would be the point? The only reason an interim leader would be needed is if Rishi steps down.
Otherwise, Rishi is the current leader and remains so until he resigns or is replaced.
What seems highly improbable is Biden getting through another term.
That was obvious four years ago. The moment he won, the Dems should have said "right, you've got four years, but you won't be the candidate next time."
I've just topped up at 19, because those odds are really really silly.
I do think he's going but that is value imo.
Sadly it's not value. To be value there needs to be both a scenario where he is BOTH the nominee AND he wins in November.
He's not going to be the nominee.
And if he is, he'll lose.
Which is why he's not going to be the nominee.
Sadly, no value here.
You've written that as if the probability is zero iyo. I have it a little higher than that. Higher than 5% even, hence my 'value' comment.
But given how often we disagree on things it seems a bit silly to argue about a point of agreement - being Trump v Harris is looking increasingly likely.
Presented by Matt Chorley who iirc has been signed up by the BBC now. It is where I spent much of ekection night. Its budget of £2.50 meant there were no gimmicks like the main channels.
I was just about to ask whether anyone had a link to this. Thanks.
I've just topped up at 19, because those odds are really really silly.
I do think he's going but that is value imo.
Sadly it's not value. To be value there needs to be both a scenario where he is BOTH the nominee AND he wins in November.
He's not going to be the nominee.
And if he is, he'll lose.
Which is why he's not going to be the nominee.
Sadly, no value here.
There is value. He isn't zero chance to be the nominee and nor he is zero chance to win the Presidency again.
I'd assess him as 50/50 to hold the nomination right now (he is stubborn, holds all the delegates and the only clear alternative doesn't poll very well) and, if is the nominee, he has about a 35% chance of winning the general. Let's add an 85% chance he survives, healthwise, to make the inauguration on top - if he does win.
So, his odds to be Next President on Betfair should be at worst (let's round up) at about 7.
I've just topped up at 19, because those odds are really really silly.
I do think he's going but that is value imo.
Sadly it's not value. To be value there needs to be both a scenario where he is BOTH the nominee AND he wins in November.
He's not going to be the nominee.
And if he is, he'll lose.
Which is why he's not going to be the nominee.
Sadly, no value here.
You've written that as if the probability is zero iyo. I have it a little higher than that. Higher than 5% even, hence my 'value' comment.
But given how often we disagree on things it seems a bit silly to argue about a point of agreement - being Trump v Harris is looking increasingly likely.
Go Kamala ✊️
The probability is non zero but less than 5%
Like the probability of Rishi's Conservatives getting a majority at the last election.
Totally agreed we need Kamala to win this. The world and Ukraine especially needs it.
Stuart Campbell on Wings has a really fine turn of phrase. This is his commentary on the latest Civic Charter idea for independence:
"We could spend several thousand words pulling apart all the other absurd nonsense in the document, pointing out staggeringly obvious flaws like pinning the whole plan on support for the SNP, which is currently electoral toxic waste leaking out of the sewers of a burning nuclear power station. But why bother when even the most basic building blocks are made out of poorly-set jelly?
Wings is, and all Yes supporters should be, absolutely grossly insulted by this mind-bogglingly cretinous idea. It isn’t just stupid, it’s offensively, galactically stupid.
It’s laughing openly in your face. It’s pissing in your pocket and telling you it’s raining. It’s the dust from the dregs of the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel, a hopefully-last desperate attempt at grifting from a “grassroots” organisation that struggled to put 1500 people on the streets on a nice sunny day this April even when led by the First Minister and with the full backing of the Scottish Government. "
The big question now isn't whether he stands down as candidate imo, it's whether or not he stands down as president before the election.
Yes, because he should. I do wonder if he may try and brazen it out though, which will be very illogical.
But a bit like the abdication crisis hangs over the monarchy in this country, Watergate hangs over the US, and I can’t see Biden wanting to join the club of two with Nixon.
The big question now isn't whether he stands down as candidate imo, it's whether or not he stands down as president before the election.
I've been mulling that. What do people think?
Definitely.
You can't say you're too ill to be candidate but are ok to be POTUS.
But more importantly, the second he steps down it all becomes about ensuring Kamala wins to beat Trump. Kamala has a better chance of winning as the incumbent.
The big question now isn't whether he stands down as candidate imo, it's whether or not he stands down as president before the election.
I've been mulling that. What do people think?
Either is fine, but it's easier to make a speech along the lines of "My health is good at present, but the nation needs a candidate who will be healthy the whole term".
The big question now isn't whether he stands down as candidate imo, it's whether or not he stands down as president before the election.
I've been mulling that. What do people think?
We'll let you serve out your term is a big carrot to dangle and looks more orderly. I think he stays provided (mofo of a proviso) he doesn't markedly deteriorate from here.
The big question now isn't whether he stands down as candidate imo, it's whether or not he stands down as president before the election.
I've been mulling that. What do people think?
Definitely.
You can't say you're too ill to be candidate but are ok to be POTUS.
But more importantly, the second he steps down it all becomes about ensuring Kamala wins to beat Trump. Kamala has a better chance of winning as the incumbent.
To be fair, he's just got Covid and should be OK in a few days?
I mean, yeah, he's old and doddery as well - but that's a slightly separate thing.
Stuart Campbell on Wings has a really fine turn of phrase. This is his commentary on the latest Civic Charter idea for independence:
"We could spend several thousand words pulling apart all the other absurd nonsense in the document, pointing out staggeringly obvious flaws like pinning the whole plan on support for the SNP, which is currently electoral toxic waste leaking out of the sewers of a burning nuclear power station. But why bother when even the most basic building blocks are made out of poorly-set jelly?
Wings is, and all Yes supporters should be, absolutely grossly insulted by this mind-bogglingly cretinous idea. It isn’t just stupid, it’s offensively, galactically stupid.
It’s laughing openly in your face. It’s pissing in your pocket and telling you it’s raining. It’s the dust from the dregs of the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel, a hopefully-last desperate attempt at grifting from a “grassroots” organisation that struggled to put 1500 people on the streets on a nice sunny day this April even when led by the First Minister and with the full backing of the Scottish Government. "
In some ways, the Zoomers are a couple of years ahead of the curve. Look forward to similar invective and cunning plans from 'Conservative' commentators and activists over the next few years
The big question now isn't whether he stands down as candidate imo, it's whether or not he stands down as president before the election.
I've been mulling that. What do people think?
Either is fine, but it's easier to make a speech along the lines of "My health is good at present, but the nation needs a candidate who will be healthy the whole term".
That's the speech he should have given November last year before the primaries began, but now? Why deny Kamala the opportunity of incumbency?
It'll be tough enough to beat Trump now given how much this has been ballsed up.
I've just topped up at 19, because those odds are really really silly.
I do think he's going but that is value imo.
Sadly it's not value. To be value there needs to be both a scenario where he is BOTH the nominee AND he wins in November.
He's not going to be the nominee.
And if he is, he'll lose.
Which is why he's not going to be the nominee.
Sadly, no value here.
You've written that as if the probability is zero iyo. I have it a little higher than that. Higher than 5% even, hence my 'value' comment.
But given how often we disagree on things it seems a bit silly to argue about a point of agreement - being Trump v Harris is looking increasingly likely.
Go Kamala ✊️
The probability is non zero but less than 5%
Like the probability of Rishi's Conservatives getting a majority at the last election.
Totally agreed we need Kamala to win this. The world and Ukraine especially needs it.
Go Kamala. 🇺🇦
Well, bit of false precision here but 10% for me. All it takes is another bout of 'digging in' and the price will be back in single digits. So even though I don't see his name on the ballot in November - and yes I do sense the end is nigh - I think it's more a back than a lay at 20.
The big question now isn't whether he stands down as candidate imo, it's whether or not he stands down as president before the election.
I've been mulling that. What do people think?
Either is fine, but it's easier to make a speech along the lines of "My health is good at present, but the nation needs a candidate who will be healthy the whole term".
That's the speech he should have given November last year before the primaries began, but now? Why deny Kamala the opportunity of incumbency?
It'll be tough enough to beat Trump now given how much this has been ballsed up.
Yes and Kamala could do with her own agency in the campaign, rather than constant questions about why she isn’t telling Biden to quit/sustaining a failing man in office in dangerous times.
Off topic: What is it about big corporate purchasing departments? Kit is specced by people who will never use them. Or meet the people who do use them!
Big client requires that I use one of their machines to access SAP which the current phase of the project I’m working on requires. So they ship me a laptop. From Spain. With a Spanish language keyboard.
Had to present a slide deck to corporate team so will use the thing (diplomacy - otherwise it’s purely for SAP and my company’s MacBook does the heavy lifting).
We’ll say nothing about the crippled Windows build they have installed on it. And poke a finger at a matte screen with about 5 nits of brightness. Which doesn’t matter if it’s docked. As they are in Madrid or Lyon. But less useful in the field. Which anywhere not in an office is…
Stuart Campbell on Wings has a really fine turn of phrase. This is his commentary on the latest Civic Charter idea for independence:
"We could spend several thousand words pulling apart all the other absurd nonsense in the document, pointing out staggeringly obvious flaws like pinning the whole plan on support for the SNP, which is currently electoral toxic waste leaking out of the sewers of a burning nuclear power station. But why bother when even the most basic building blocks are made out of poorly-set jelly?
Wings is, and all Yes supporters should be, absolutely grossly insulted by this mind-bogglingly cretinous idea. It isn’t just stupid, it’s offensively, galactically stupid.
It’s laughing openly in your face. It’s pissing in your pocket and telling you it’s raining. It’s the dust from the dregs of the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel, a hopefully-last desperate attempt at grifting from a “grassroots” organisation that struggled to put 1500 people on the streets on a nice sunny day this April even when led by the First Minister and with the full backing of the Scottish Government. "
Unlike the PB Yoons I’ve not been keeping up with Wings’ ‘journey’, but he’s a supporter of Alba and Salmond in’t he? Where does he think they are on the electoral toxic waste leaking out of the sewers of a burning nuclear power station scale? Not sure grifting should be in his invective armoury either.
Stuart Campbell on Wings has a really fine turn of phrase. This is his commentary on the latest Civic Charter idea for independence:
"We could spend several thousand words pulling apart all the other absurd nonsense in the document, pointing out staggeringly obvious flaws like pinning the whole plan on support for the SNP, which is currently electoral toxic waste leaking out of the sewers of a burning nuclear power station. But why bother when even the most basic building blocks are made out of poorly-set jelly?
Wings is, and all Yes supporters should be, absolutely grossly insulted by this mind-bogglingly cretinous idea. It isn’t just stupid, it’s offensively, galactically stupid.
It’s laughing openly in your face. It’s pissing in your pocket and telling you it’s raining. It’s the dust from the dregs of the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel, a hopefully-last desperate attempt at grifting from a “grassroots” organisation that struggled to put 1500 people on the streets on a nice sunny day this April even when led by the First Minister and with the full backing of the Scottish Government. "
In some ways, the Zoomers are a couple of years ahead of the curve. Look forward to similar invective and cunning plans from 'Conservative' commentators and activists over the next few years
I fear you are right. Many on the swamp lands between the right of the Tories and the wilderness of Reform will shriek about several anti-woke issues which will have the vast majority shaking their heads in bewilderment while they wonder, briefly, if the Tories have anything to say about the real issues of the day.
But that won't bother them at all if they can get some sycophantic burbling's from right wing media and some rich fools easily parted from their money. It's a grim prospect.
IF Joe Biden steps aside as the 2024 Democratic nominee for President, am VERY skeptical (underline very) that he would resign at the same time.
Besides his personal reluctance to leave the White House prematurely (in his eyes certainly) there is this question: would elevating Kamala Harris to the Presidency BEFORE the November election really HELP her win the White House for the next four years?
My guess is that it would NOT, which I realize is somewhat counter to what's now passing for prevailing wisdom, at least on PB.
Reason I think making KH POTUS prior to EDay would be counter-productive, is that it would come across as a cheap political trick to millions of voters, and NOT just Republicans and/or Trump fans.
Who might not care, or not much IF we were talking about a Senator or Governor. But President is a different order of magnitude to put it mildly.
Further note, that it's Trump's overt, constant, public disdain for politics as usual, and the usual suspect politicos (even if more rhetorical than sincere) is THE rocket fuel that has made DJT America's leading ANTI-politician.
Stuart Campbell on Wings has a really fine turn of phrase. This is his commentary on the latest Civic Charter idea for independence:
"We could spend several thousand words pulling apart all the other absurd nonsense in the document, pointing out staggeringly obvious flaws like pinning the whole plan on support for the SNP, which is currently electoral toxic waste leaking out of the sewers of a burning nuclear power station. But why bother when even the most basic building blocks are made out of poorly-set jelly?
Wings is, and all Yes supporters should be, absolutely grossly insulted by this mind-bogglingly cretinous idea. It isn’t just stupid, it’s offensively, galactically stupid.
It’s laughing openly in your face. It’s pissing in your pocket and telling you it’s raining. It’s the dust from the dregs of the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel, a hopefully-last desperate attempt at grifting from a “grassroots” organisation that struggled to put 1500 people on the streets on a nice sunny day this April even when led by the First Minister and with the full backing of the Scottish Government. "
Unlike the PB Yoons I’ve not been keeping up with Wings’ ‘journey’, but he’s a supporter of Alba and Salmond in’t he? Where does he think they are on the electoral toxic waste leaking out of the sewers of a burning nuclear power station scale? Not sure grifting should be in his invective armoury either.
In test match parlance Alba have indeed barely troubled the scorers to date. Not sure what you mean about the grifting though.
"We'll let you serve out your term" is a load of hamster poop.
IF Joe Biden wants to remain POTUS through January 2025, what exactly is the mechanism to remove him from office?
Note the provisions of Section 4 of Amendment XXV (Presidential succession & disability):
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
SSI - Would NOT bet the farm on the above transpiring in 2024.
Off topic: What is it about big corporate purchasing departments? Kit is specced by people who will never use them. Or meet the people who do use them!
Big client requires that I use one of their machines to access SAP which the current phase of the project I’m working on requires. So they ship me a laptop. From Spain. With a Spanish language keyboard.
Had to present a slide deck to corporate team so will use the thing (diplomacy - otherwise it’s purely for SAP and my company’s MacBook does the heavy lifting).
We’ll say nothing about the crippled Windows build they have installed on it. And poke a finger at a matte screen with about 5 nits of brightness. Which doesn’t matter if it’s docked. As they are in Madrid or Lyon. But less useful in the field. Which anywhere not in an office is…
I've been a Mac user for 35 years. Windows has, indirectly, made me a small fortune. I recall the agony of a fellow commuter when he opened his PC to add the finishing touches to an important presentation, only for Bill Gates to brick his laptop for the entire journey by installing an obligatory upgrade.
"We'll let you serve out your term" is a load of hamster poop.
IF Joe Biden wants to remain POTUS through January 2025, what exactly is the mechanism to remove him from office?
Note the provisions of Section 4 of Amendment XXV (Presidential succession & disability):
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
SSI - Would NOT bet the farm on the above transpiring in 2024.
I know all that. The Biden proppers have the threat of knocking the props away though, whether or not that is covered by the constitution.
They want to face Biden so are starting this hysterical talk about a coup.
Part of the problem for Democrats who want to have someone other than Biden at the top of the ticket, is that he won a SUPER-majority of pledged delegates to Democratic National Convention.
Now the convention is functionally unbound by such pledges, it has collective power to nominate someone else even if Biden objects.
HOWEVER, unless he steps down as nominee of his own volition (sorta) THEN the resemblance to a political coup becomes VERY strong, certainly for many voters, and NOT all of them on the Trump GOP payroll.
"We'll let you serve out your term" is a load of hamster poop.
IF Joe Biden wants to remain POTUS through January 2025, what exactly is the mechanism to remove him from office?
Note the provisions of Section 4 of Amendment XXV (Presidential succession & disability):
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
SSI - Would NOT bet the farm on the above transpiring in 2024.
I know all that. The Biden proppers have the threat of knocking the props away though, whether or not that is covered by the constitution.
The idle threat. Unless you can be more specific and also more persuasive.
They want to face Biden so are starting this hysterical talk about a coup.
Part of the problem for Democrats who want to have someone other than Biden at the top of the ticket, is that he won a SUPER-majority of pledged delegates to Democratic National Convention.
Now the convention is functionally unbound by such pledges, it has collective power to nominate someone else even if Biden objects.
HOWEVER, unless he steps down as nominee of his own volition (sorta) THEN the resemblance to a political coup becomes VERY strong, certainly for many voters, and NOT all of them on the Trump GOP payroll.
Seems to me that Biden only goes if he goes voluntarily. The Democrats know that anything else would be catastrophic.
In fairness Trump's utter usurpation of the Republicans has gone beyond the "attempted" hasn't it?
You may despise Trump as much as you like - even as much as yours truly! - but that doesn't change the fact that his dominance of today's GOP is based on his support from Republican (and other) VOTERS.
Might just as well accuse Franklin Roosevelt of a "coup" against the pre-1932 Democratic Party (a view held Al Smith & many other Democrat politicos) which was also based on his vote-winning prowess.
Off topic: What is it about big corporate purchasing departments? Kit is specced by people who will never use them. Or meet the people who do use them!
Big client requires that I use one of their machines to access SAP which the current phase of the project I’m working on requires. So they ship me a laptop. From Spain. With a Spanish language keyboard.
Had to present a slide deck to corporate team so will use the thing (diplomacy - otherwise it’s purely for SAP and my company’s MacBook does the heavy lifting).
We’ll say nothing about the crippled Windows build they have installed on it. And poke a finger at a matte screen with about 5 nits of brightness. Which doesn’t matter if it’s docked. As they are in Madrid or Lyon. But less useful in the field. Which anywhere not in an office is…
I've been a Mac user for 35 years. Windows has, indirectly, made me a small fortune. I recall the agony of a fellow commuter when he opened his PC to add the finishing touches to an important presentation, only for Bill Gates to brick his laptop for the entire journey by installing an obligatory upgrade.
Yes, corporate Windows is very good at booting me out of sessions with no option to delay.
I genuinely don’t get Windows. Then again I’ve been increasingly of that mindset for years
Say it ain't so, Joe, please Say it ain't so That's not what I wanna hear, Joe And I got a right to know Say it ain't so, Joe, please Say it ain't so I'm sure they telling us lies, Joe Please tell us it ain't so They told us our hero had played his trump card He doesn't know how to go on We're clinging to his charm and determined smile But the good old days have gone The image and the empire may be failing apart The money has gotten scarce One man's word held the country together But the truth is getting fierce Say it ain't so, Joe, please Say it ain't so We pinned our hopes on you, Joe And they're ruining our show
Off topic: What is it about big corporate purchasing departments? Kit is specced by people who will never use them. Or meet the people who do use them!
Big client requires that I use one of their machines to access SAP which the current phase of the project I’m working on requires. So they ship me a laptop. From Spain. With a Spanish language keyboard.
Had to present a slide deck to corporate team so will use the thing (diplomacy - otherwise it’s purely for SAP and my company’s MacBook does the heavy lifting).
We’ll say nothing about the crippled Windows build they have installed on it. And poke a finger at a matte screen with about 5 nits of brightness. Which doesn’t matter if it’s docked. As they are in Madrid or Lyon. But less useful in the field. Which anywhere not in an office is…
I've been a Mac user for 35 years. Windows has, indirectly, made me a small fortune. I recall the agony of a fellow commuter when he opened his PC to add the finishing touches to an important presentation, only for Bill Gates to brick his laptop for the entire journey by installing an obligatory upgrade.
Yes, corporate Windows is very good at booting me out of sessions with no option to delay.
I genuinely don’t get Windows. Then again I’ve been increasingly of that mindset for years
The choice is mandatory inconvenient reboots, or ransomware !!
"We'll let you serve out your term" is a load of hamster poop.
IF Joe Biden wants to remain POTUS through January 2025, what exactly is the mechanism to remove him from office?
Note the provisions of Section 4 of Amendment XXV (Presidential succession & disability):
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
SSI - Would NOT bet the farm on the above transpiring in 2024.
I know all that. The Biden proppers have the threat of knocking the props away though, whether or not that is covered by the constitution.
The idle threat. Unless you can be more specific and also more persuasive.
I don't have specific insight. I do know that people as old and fucked up as Biden are utterly dependent on loyal supporters. He has very little agency.
In fairness Trump's utter usurpation of the Republicans has gone beyond the "attempted" hasn't it?
You may despise Trump as much as you like - even as much as yours truly! - but that doesn't change the fact that his dominance of today's GOP is based on his support from Republican (and other) VOTERS.
Might just as well accuse Franklin Roosevelt of a "coup" against the pre-1932 Democratic Party (a view held Al Smith & many other Democrat politicos) which was also based on his vote-winning prowess.
Even FDR didn't manage to make his daughter in law Party Chief, nor to spend its resources in meeting all his legal bills. But you are right. We cannot ignore the fact that nearly 50% of Americans are perfectly ok with Trump and that is enough for him to win.
That's my hope. Women stop him winning. A suitable fate for a misogynist.
This was the presumption prior to his dementia. The revocation of Roe vs Wade led to a lot of pro-choice people voting against Trump and that and his crimes led to a lot of independents voting against Trump. Those factors were big and would have made Biden a shoo-in in 2024. But his dementia has broken all that and if he remains in place Biden will lose. I think that even given Harris's known deficiencies she would reattract the prochoice and independents and bring herself back into play.
Say it ain't so, Joe, please Say it ain't so That's not what I wanna hear, Joe And I got a right to know Say it ain't so, Joe, please Say it ain't so I'm sure they telling us lies, Joe Please tell us it ain't so They told us our hero had played his trump card He doesn't know how to go on We're clinging to his charm and determined smile But the good old days have gone The image and the empire may be failing apart The money has gotten scarce One man's word held the country together But the truth is getting fierce Say it ain't so, Joe, please Say it ain't so We pinned our hopes on you, Joe And they're ruining our show
Even fits in a reference to Trump.
Phrase "Say it ain't so, Joe" references the "Black Sox" Scandal of 1919, when "Shoeless Joe" Jackson and other players on Chicago White Sox baseball team were accused of throwing that year's World Series in return for bribes from gamblers.
from wiki -
When Jackson left the criminal court building in the custody of a sheriff after telling his story to the grand jury, he found several hundred youngsters, aged from 6 to 16, waiting for a glimpse of their idol. One child stepped up to the outfielder, and, grabbing his coat sleeve, said:
"It ain't true, is it, Joe?"
"Yes, kid, I'm afraid it is," Jackson replied. The boys opened a path for the ball player and stood in silence until he passed out of sight.
"Well, I'd never have thought it," sighed the lad.
"We'll let you serve out your term" is a load of hamster poop.
IF Joe Biden wants to remain POTUS through January 2025, what exactly is the mechanism to remove him from office?
Note the provisions of Section 4 of Amendment XXV (Presidential succession & disability):
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
SSI - Would NOT bet the farm on the above transpiring in 2024.
We need a "year Biden ceases being President" market.
They want to face Biden so are starting this hysterical talk about a coup.
Part of the problem for Democrats who want to have someone other than Biden at the top of the ticket, is that he won a SUPER-majority of pledged delegates to Democratic National Convention.
Now the convention is functionally unbound by such pledges, it has collective power to nominate someone else even if Biden objects.
HOWEVER, unless he steps down as nominee of his own volition (sorta) THEN the resemblance to a political coup becomes VERY strong, certainly for many voters, and NOT all of them on the Trump GOP payroll.
Seems to me that Biden only goes if he goes voluntarily. The Democrats know that anything else would be catastrophic.
Yes, and what if he doesn't?
My betting position is informed by the fact I think he thinks he's the only one who can actually beat Trump.
Off topic: What is it about big corporate purchasing departments? Kit is specced by people who will never use them. Or meet the people who do use them!
Big client requires that I use one of their machines to access SAP which the current phase of the project I’m working on requires. So they ship me a laptop. From Spain. With a Spanish language keyboard.
Had to present a slide deck to corporate team so will use the thing (diplomacy - otherwise it’s purely for SAP and my company’s MacBook does the heavy lifting).
We’ll say nothing about the crippled Windows build they have installed on it. And poke a finger at a matte screen with about 5 nits of brightness. Which doesn’t matter if it’s docked. As they are in Madrid or Lyon. But less useful in the field. Which anywhere not in an office is…
I've been a Mac user for 35 years. Windows has, indirectly, made me a small fortune. I recall the agony of a fellow commuter when he opened his PC to add the finishing touches to an important presentation, only for Bill Gates to brick his laptop for the entire journey by installing an obligatory upgrade.
Yes, corporate Windows is very good at booting me out of sessions with no option to delay.
I genuinely don’t get Windows. Then again I’ve been increasingly of that mindset for years
The choice is mandatory inconvenient reboots, or ransomware !!
Perfectly possible to have convenient, scheduled reboots instead.
If its mandatory, inconvenient ones the issue is the administrator not Windows.
"We'll let you serve out your term" is a load of hamster poop.
IF Joe Biden wants to remain POTUS through January 2025, what exactly is the mechanism to remove him from office?
Note the provisions of Section 4 of Amendment XXV (Presidential succession & disability):
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
SSI - Would NOT bet the farm on the above transpiring in 2024.
I know all that. The Biden proppers have the threat of knocking the props away though, whether or not that is covered by the constitution.
The idle threat. Unless you can be more specific and also more persuasive.
I don't have specific insight. I do know that people as old and fucked up as Biden are utterly dependent on loyal supporters. He has very little agency.
Incumbent Presidents of the United States have quite a lot of "agency" . . . whatever the heck that is.
Say it ain't so, Joe, please Say it ain't so That's not what I wanna hear, Joe And I got a right to know Say it ain't so, Joe, please Say it ain't so I'm sure they telling us lies, Joe Please tell us it ain't so They told us our hero had played his trump card He doesn't know how to go on We're clinging to his charm and determined smile But the good old days have gone The image and the empire may be failing apart The money has gotten scarce One man's word held the country together But the truth is getting fierce Say it ain't so, Joe, please Say it ain't so We pinned our hopes on you, Joe And they're ruining our show
Even fits in a reference to Trump.
Phrase "Say it ain't so, Joe" references the "Black Sox" Scandal of 1919, when "Shoeless Joe" Jackson and other players on Chicago White Sox baseball team were accused of throwing that year's World Series in return for bribes from gamblers.
from wiki -
When Jackson left the criminal court building in the custody of a sheriff after telling his story to the grand jury, he found several hundred youngsters, aged from 6 to 16, waiting for a glimpse of their idol. One child stepped up to the outfielder, and, grabbing his coat sleeve, said:
"It ain't true, is it, Joe?"
"Yes, kid, I'm afraid it is," Jackson replied. The boys opened a path for the ball player and stood in silence until he passed out of sight.
"Well, I'd never have thought it," sighed the lad.
In fairness Trump's utter usurpation of the Republicans has gone beyond the "attempted" hasn't it?
You may despise Trump as much as you like - even as much as yours truly! - but that doesn't change the fact that his dominance of today's GOP is based on his support from Republican (and other) VOTERS.
Might just as well accuse Franklin Roosevelt of a "coup" against the pre-1932 Democratic Party (a view held Al Smith & many other Democrat politicos) which was also based on his vote-winning prowess.
Even FDR didn't manage to make his daughter in law Party Chief, nor to spend its resources in meeting all his legal bills. But you are right. We cannot ignore the fact that nearly 50% of Americans are perfectly ok with Trump and that is enough for him to win.
We can't ignore it. But at some point, it's worth properly exploring why it happened. (And please let the right time for that be this November, not 4/8/12 years hence.)
And as with the Corbyn fever, or the Johnson fever, the key question isn't about government, or the Otherlot Party.
Political parties have one basic job to do, which is to ensure that their leader is fit to govern the nation, if the call comes. Not necessarily well, but with some minimal fitness. (I'd argue that Michael Foot would have been a rotten PM, with terrible ideas. But also that he was a substantial figure who would have been better at the job than Boris or Jez.)
How, in the name of all that is Yankee Doodle Dandy, have the Republican Party looked at Trump and thought "yes, we'll have some more of that, please?"
That's my hope. Women stop him winning. A suitable fate for a misogynist.
This was the presumption prior to his dementia. The revocation of Roe vs Wade led to a lot of pro-choice people voting against Trump and that and his crimes led to a lot of independents voting against Trump. Those factors were big and would have made Biden a shoo-in in 2024. But his dementia has broken all that and if he remains in place Biden will lose. I think that even given Harris's known deficiencies she would reattract the prochoice and independents and bring herself back into play.
The Trump / Musk / MAGA anti-woman worldview is quite obvious, and I find it staggering that any woman would vote for Trump. And whilst a lot of women are anti-abortion, fewer AIUI are against birth control and IVF.
In fairness Trump's utter usurpation of the Republicans has gone beyond the "attempted" hasn't it?
You may despise Trump as much as you like - even as much as yours truly! - but that doesn't change the fact that his dominance of today's GOP is based on his support from Republican (and other) VOTERS.
Might just as well accuse Franklin Roosevelt of a "coup" against the pre-1932 Democratic Party (a view held Al Smith & many other Democrat politicos) which was also based on his vote-winning prowess.
Even FDR didn't manage to make his daughter in law Party Chief, nor to spend its resources in meeting all his legal bills. But you are right. We cannot ignore the fact that nearly 50% of Americans are perfectly ok with Trump and that is enough for him to win.
We can't ignore it. But at some point, it's worth properly exploring why it happened. (And please let the right time for that be this November, not 4/8/12 years hence.)
And as with the Corbyn fever, or the Johnson fever, the key question isn't about government, or the Otherlot Party.
Political parties have one basic job to do, which is to ensure that their leader is fit to govern the nation, if the call comes. Not necessarily well, but with some minimal fitness. (I'd argue that Michael Foot would have been a rotten PM, with terrible ideas. But also that he was a substantial figure who would have been better at the job than Boris or Jez.)
How, in the name of all that is Yankee Doodle Dandy, have the Republican Party looked at Trump and thought "yes, we'll have some more of that, please?"
It is indeed a mystery, although as you point out far from a unique one.
In fairness Trump's utter usurpation of the Republicans has gone beyond the "attempted" hasn't it?
You may despise Trump as much as you like - even as much as yours truly! - but that doesn't change the fact that his dominance of today's GOP is based on his support from Republican (and other) VOTERS.
Might just as well accuse Franklin Roosevelt of a "coup" against the pre-1932 Democratic Party (a view held Al Smith & many other Democrat politicos) which was also based on his vote-winning prowess.
Even FDR didn't manage to make his daughter in law Party Chief, nor to spend its resources in meeting all his legal bills. But you are right. We cannot ignore the fact that nearly 50% of Americans are perfectly ok with Trump and that is enough for him to win.
FDR never needed to go to such extremes as DJT, but IF he had, he have done it in a heartbeat. AND gotten away with it.
Note that Roosevelt's control over HIS party was so great, that he broke the previous glass ceiling against a Third Term - and a Fourth - by winning twice winning re-nomination (1940 & 1944) despite NEVER declaring himself a candidate; instead FDR was "drafted" both times.
In 1940 incidentally against the active opposition of his 1932 & 1936 campaign manager, Jim Farley, who as US Postmaster General (the biggest patronage department of federal govt before WW2) from 1933 to 1940 was effectively the "Party Chief" of the Democratic Party.
In fairness Trump's utter usurpation of the Republicans has gone beyond the "attempted" hasn't it?
You may despise Trump as much as you like - even as much as yours truly! - but that doesn't change the fact that his dominance of today's GOP is based on his support from Republican (and other) VOTERS.
Might just as well accuse Franklin Roosevelt of a "coup" against the pre-1932 Democratic Party (a view held Al Smith & many other Democrat politicos) which was also based on his vote-winning prowess.
Even FDR didn't manage to make his daughter in law Party Chief, nor to spend its resources in meeting all his legal bills. But you are right. We cannot ignore the fact that nearly 50% of Americans are perfectly ok with Trump and that is enough for him to win.
FDR never needed to go to such extremes as DJT, but IF he had, he have done it in a heartbeat. AND gotten away with it.
Note that Roosevelt's control over HIS party was so great, that he broke the previous glass ceiling against a Third Term - and a Fourth - by winning twice winning re-nomination (1940 & 1944) despite NEVER declaring himself a candidate; instead FDR was "drafted" both times.
In 1940 incidentally against the active opposition of his 1932 & 1936 campaign manager, Jim Farley, who as US Postmaster General (the biggest patronage department of federal govt before WW2) from 1933 to 1940 was effectively the "Party Chief" of the Democratic Party.
Would that glass ceiling have been broken had it not been for WWII? Even though America wasn't technically in it yet in 1940, it was very special circumstances.
They want to face Biden so are starting this hysterical talk about a coup.
Unless it's a double bluff and would actually prefer Harris as candidate.
I don’t think Trump is afraid of Harris but neither do I think he should underestimate her.
They have spent 4 years portraying her as a bumbling, cackling fool. Watch her recently and you’ll see an articulate and measured politician, if uncharismatic. But maybe people will give her a second look. They won’t give Biden that opportunity now - he’s a known quantity.
In fairness Trump's utter usurpation of the Republicans has gone beyond the "attempted" hasn't it?
You may despise Trump as much as you like - even as much as yours truly! - but that doesn't change the fact that his dominance of today's GOP is based on his support from Republican (and other) VOTERS.
Might just as well accuse Franklin Roosevelt of a "coup" against the pre-1932 Democratic Party (a view held Al Smith & many other Democrat politicos) which was also based on his vote-winning prowess.
Even FDR didn't manage to make his daughter in law Party Chief, nor to spend its resources in meeting all his legal bills. But you are right. We cannot ignore the fact that nearly 50% of Americans are perfectly ok with Trump and that is enough for him to win.
FDR never needed to go to such extremes as DJT, but IF he had, he have done it in a heartbeat. AND gotten away with it.
Note that Roosevelt's control over HIS party was so great, that he broke the previous glass ceiling against a Third Term - and a Fourth - by winning twice winning re-nomination (1940 & 1944) despite NEVER declaring himself a candidate; instead FDR was "drafted" both times.
In 1940 incidentally against the active opposition of his 1932 & 1936 campaign manager, Jim Farley, who as US Postmaster General (the biggest patronage department of federal govt before WW2) from 1933 to 1940 was effectively the "Party Chief" of the Democratic Party.
Would that glass ceiling have been broken had it not been for WWII? Even though America wasn't technically in it yet in 1940, it was very special circumstances.
Probably NOT. Note that the 1940 Democratic Convention took place just weeks after the Fall of France.
However, it's possible that FDR might have tried to break the glass even without WWII, as he was concerned that his likely Democratic replacements would NOT uphold his New Deal policies.
Note that, in addition to the looming threat of Hitler, which boosted FDR with many Democrats, Independents AND Republicans, another key factor in favor of his re-nomination in 1940 (and 1944) was belief by many Democratic politicos (including some who disdained him and his New Deal) that having Roosevelt at the top of the ticket was vital to the re-election & prospects of themselves and others in their organizations.
Rather similar methinks to current GOP calculus re: Trump . . . and also to the effort to replace Biden.
In fairness Trump's utter usurpation of the Republicans has gone beyond the "attempted" hasn't it?
You may despise Trump as much as you like - even as much as yours truly! - but that doesn't change the fact that his dominance of today's GOP is based on his support from Republican (and other) VOTERS.
Might just as well accuse Franklin Roosevelt of a "coup" against the pre-1932 Democratic Party (a view held Al Smith & many other Democrat politicos) which was also based on his vote-winning prowess.
Even FDR didn't manage to make his daughter in law Party Chief, nor to spend its resources in meeting all his legal bills. But you are right. We cannot ignore the fact that nearly 50% of Americans are perfectly ok with Trump and that is enough for him to win.
The more difficult concept for many people to grasp is that Trump comes across as highly coherent, when compared with the irrationality of the liberal left. People are absorbed in emotions of disgust and cannot see the situation clearly.
There is a similar thing here with Nigel Farage. He comes across as more coherant than Keir Starmer. IE Starmer is pumping £84 million in direct aid to developing countries to try and stop the small boats. It just seems to like a completely irrational policy, compared with a policy of preventing the boats from landing, or shipping the migrants off to Rwanda, etc.
Ultimately it seems likely to me that the coherant will triumph over the irrational, unfortunately.
Stuart Campbell on Wings has a really fine turn of phrase. This is his commentary on the latest Civic Charter idea for independence:
"We could spend several thousand words pulling apart all the other absurd nonsense in the document, pointing out staggeringly obvious flaws like pinning the whole plan on support for the SNP, which is currently electoral toxic waste leaking out of the sewers of a burning nuclear power station. But why bother when even the most basic building blocks are made out of poorly-set jelly?
Wings is, and all Yes supporters should be, absolutely grossly insulted by this mind-bogglingly cretinous idea. It isn’t just stupid, it’s offensively, galactically stupid.
It’s laughing openly in your face. It’s pissing in your pocket and telling you it’s raining. It’s the dust from the dregs of the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel, a hopefully-last desperate attempt at grifting from a “grassroots” organisation that struggled to put 1500 people on the streets on a nice sunny day this April even when led by the First Minister and with the full backing of the Scottish Government. "
Unlike the PB Yoons I’ve not been keeping up with Wings’ ‘journey’, but he’s a supporter of Alba and Salmond in’t he? Where does he think they are on the electoral toxic waste leaking out of the sewers of a burning nuclear power station scale? Not sure grifting should be in his invective armoury either.
In test match parlance Alba have indeed barely troubled the scorers to date. Not sure what you mean about the grifting though.
There seem to be enough folk on the Wings..er..wing to make substantial donations to his regular ‘crowdfunders’, just not enough to get any politicians on that wing elected.
I get that Wings’ schtick always involved a deal of howling into the void but that seems to be all there is now. Even his much desired aim of the downfall of Sturgeon was initiated by the Zelig of Scotpol Sean Clerkin, so he can’t even claim that.
That's my hope. Women stop him winning. A suitable fate for a misogynist.
This was the presumption prior to his dementia. The revocation of Roe vs Wade led to a lot of pro-choice people voting against Trump and that and his crimes led to a lot of independents voting against Trump. Those factors were big and would have made Biden a shoo-in in 2024. But his dementia has broken all that and if he remains in place Biden will lose. I think that even given Harris's known deficiencies she would reattract the prochoice and independents and bring herself back into play.
The Trump / Musk / MAGA anti-woman worldview is quite obvious, and I find it staggering that any woman would vote for Trump. And whilst a lot of women are anti-abortion, fewer AIUI are against birth control and IVF.
Never overlook the propensity of people in group X to vote against other people in group X or group near-X. Cats do not compete with dogs, they compete with other cats to survive the dogs. Migrants from country Y may be against younger migrants from Y or similar migrants from near-Y. Same for women, same for races and age groups.
He comes across as more coherant than Keir Starmer.
Only if you have no understanding of what the word coherent means
The idea that the problem of illegal migration can be solved with co-ordinated aid budgets fails to grasp a basic premise that many people find obvious; namely that illegal migration is inevitable where there is global inequality, and where it happens it is primarily a consequence of bad law, and bad law enforcement. They view the government's policy as completely mad.
In fairness Trump's utter usurpation of the Republicans has gone beyond the "attempted" hasn't it?
You may despise Trump as much as you like - even as much as yours truly! - but that doesn't change the fact that his dominance of today's GOP is based on his support from Republican (and other) VOTERS.
Might just as well accuse Franklin Roosevelt of a "coup" against the pre-1932 Democratic Party (a view held Al Smith & many other Democrat politicos) which was also based on his vote-winning prowess.
Even FDR didn't manage to make his daughter in law Party Chief, nor to spend its resources in meeting all his legal bills. But you are right. We cannot ignore the fact that nearly 50% of Americans are perfectly ok with Trump and that is enough for him to win.
FDR never needed to go to such extremes as DJT, but IF he had, he have done it in a heartbeat. AND gotten away with it.
Note that Roosevelt's control over HIS party was so great, that he broke the previous glass ceiling against a Third Term - and a Fourth - by winning twice winning re-nomination (1940 & 1944) despite NEVER declaring himself a candidate; instead FDR was "drafted" both times.
In 1940 incidentally against the active opposition of his 1932 & 1936 campaign manager, Jim Farley, who as US Postmaster General (the biggest patronage department of federal govt before WW2) from 1933 to 1940 was effectively the "Party Chief" of the Democratic Party.
The only politician who ever threatened FDR was Huey Long of Louisiana who had a large number of Trump like traits, albeit he was more of the left. The major difference is that his assassin didn't miss. A fascinating character in his own right.
Of course the only thing the Democrats could do that would be worse than either Biden remaining the nominee or standing down (voluntarily or otherwise) would be to continually swither on the point of both endlessly before finally awkwardly coming down on either of those decisions anyway.
Stuart Campbell on Wings has a really fine turn of phrase. This is his commentary on the latest Civic Charter idea for independence:
"We could spend several thousand words pulling apart all the other absurd nonsense in the document, pointing out staggeringly obvious flaws like pinning the whole plan on support for the SNP, which is currently electoral toxic waste leaking out of the sewers of a burning nuclear power station. But why bother when even the most basic building blocks are made out of poorly-set jelly?
Wings is, and all Yes supporters should be, absolutely grossly insulted by this mind-bogglingly cretinous idea. It isn’t just stupid, it’s offensively, galactically stupid.
It’s laughing openly in your face. It’s pissing in your pocket and telling you it’s raining. It’s the dust from the dregs of the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel, a hopefully-last desperate attempt at grifting from a “grassroots” organisation that struggled to put 1500 people on the streets on a nice sunny day this April even when led by the First Minister and with the full backing of the Scottish Government. "
Unlike the PB Yoons I’ve not been keeping up with Wings’ ‘journey’, but he’s a supporter of Alba and Salmond in’t he? Where does he think they are on the electoral toxic waste leaking out of the sewers of a burning nuclear power station scale? Not sure grifting should be in his invective armoury either.
In test match parlance Alba have indeed barely troubled the scorers to date. Not sure what you mean about the grifting though.
There seem to be enough folk on the Wings..er..wing to make substantial donations to his regular ‘crowdfunders’, just not enough to get any politicians on that wing elected.
I get that Wings’ schtick always involved a deal of howling into the void but that seems to be all there is now. Even his much desired aim of the downfall of Sturgeon was initiated by the Zelig of Scotpol Sean Clerkin, so he can’t even claim that.
I don't really get where the BTLs on Wings are coming from although they can provide a great deal of unintentional amusement as well as the odd piece of wit. The current thinking seems to be that the SNP are simply not serious about independence being far more interested in their sinecures, salaries and positions and that it is necessary to destroy the SNP in the hope that something better arises from the ashes.
This seems to me to be somewhat optimistic on a whole series of levels and not entirely connected with the world we live in. But hey, they are better at attacking the SNP than anyone else.
In fairness Trump's utter usurpation of the Republicans has gone beyond the "attempted" hasn't it?
You may despise Trump as much as you like - even as much as yours truly! - but that doesn't change the fact that his dominance of today's GOP is based on his support from Republican (and other) VOTERS.
Might just as well accuse Franklin Roosevelt of a "coup" against the pre-1932 Democratic Party (a view held Al Smith & many other Democrat politicos) which was also based on his vote-winning prowess.
Even FDR didn't manage to make his daughter in law Party Chief, nor to spend its resources in meeting all his legal bills. But you are right. We cannot ignore the fact that nearly 50% of Americans are perfectly ok with Trump and that is enough for him to win.
FDR never needed to go to such extremes as DJT, but IF he had, he have done it in a heartbeat. AND gotten away with it.
Note that Roosevelt's control over HIS party was so great, that he broke the previous glass ceiling against a Third Term - and a Fourth - by winning twice winning re-nomination (1940 & 1944) despite NEVER declaring himself a candidate; instead FDR was "drafted" both times.
In 1940 incidentally against the active opposition of his 1932 & 1936 campaign manager, Jim Farley, who as US Postmaster General (the biggest patronage department of federal govt before WW2) from 1933 to 1940 was effectively the "Party Chief" of the Democratic Party.
The only politician who ever threatened FDR was Huey Long of Louisiana who had a large number of Trump like traits, albeit he was more of the left. The major difference is that his assassin didn't miss. A fascinating character in his own right.
Al Smith was a pretty big threat to Franklin Roosevelt getting nominated for POTUS in 1932.
Am personally dubious that, had he lived, The Kingfish could have denied FDR re-nomination in 1936.
For what it's worth, was a student (sorta) decades ago at LSU, of T. Harry Williams, who wrote THE biography of Huey Long, based on extensive research including numerous oral interviews with people who played important roles both for & against him. Some revisionism since them, but not enough to displace T. Harry's opus.
Also knew a fellow, who was a young boy in Bogalusa, Louisiana when Huey came to town on a campaign tour. He remembered The Kingfish standing on a cotton bale to address the assembled crowd, mostly local farmers.
"See that man there?" his father said to him, "He's the only one who ever done a damn for folks like us."
ADDENDUM - Huey Long's political style and strategy was VERY similar to that now employed by Donald Trump.
I remember when Cameron diverted a fairly significant part of our aid budget to camps around Syria to make them more tolerable and to encourage people to stay in the proximity and therefore have some prospect of returning home. That struck me as a good use of our funds. This is a gesture.
They want to face Biden so are starting this hysterical talk about a coup.
Part of the problem for Democrats who want to have someone other than Biden at the top of the ticket, is that he won a SUPER-majority of pledged delegates to Democratic National Convention.
Now the convention is functionally unbound by such pledges, it has collective power to nominate someone else even if Biden objects.
HOWEVER, unless he steps down as nominee of his own volition (sorta) THEN the resemblance to a political coup becomes VERY strong, certainly for many voters, and NOT all of them on the Trump GOP payroll.
Seems to me that Biden only goes if he goes voluntarily. The Democrats know that anything else would be catastrophic.
That’s bollocks I’m afraid unless you have a very rigid interpretation of the world “voluntarily”. His superpac cashflow is soon going to be as dry [insert TSE rude joke]. The game is done. He still has power in that he can decide if it’s Harris or AN Other that replaces him, by deciding whether to stand down immediately (ergo Harris) or Jan (open convention).
Surely no one is falling for “Isolating with covid” at this point.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53ZuE4V5Jc0
Presented by Matt Chorley who iirc has been signed up by the BBC now. It is where I spent much of election night. Its budget of £2.50 meant there were no gimmicks like the main channels.
Why not Rishi? He seem much happier now he's not being held hostage.
Has he explicitly refused?
Otherwise, Rishi is the current leader and remains so until he resigns or is replaced.
He's not going to be the nominee.
And if he is, he'll lose.
Which is why he's not going to be the nominee.
Sadly, no value here.
The bigger problem is he won't win a second term.
The biggest problem is if he loses, he loses to Trump.
Ukraine, America and the world can't afford Trump to win again. So Biden has to go.
He is no longer acceptable under the circumstances.
This is the issue for the Dems , if they come out in force and say he should go and then he doesn’t they’re even more screwed.
How can you ask voters to back someone who you’ve stated isn’t fit for the job.
The love and respect many Dems have for Biden could quickly turn to anger if he refuses to see sense .
But given how often we disagree on things it seems a bit silly to argue about a point of agreement - being Trump v Harris is looking increasingly likely.
Go Kamala ✊️
I think either Whitmer or Buttigeig would be good running mates for Harris.
This team would do well against Dozy Donald and Vapid Vance.
I'd assess him as 50/50 to hold the nomination right now (he is stubborn, holds all the delegates and the only clear alternative doesn't poll very well) and, if is the nominee, he has about a 35% chance of winning the general. Let's add an 85% chance he survives, healthwise, to make the inauguration on top - if he does win.
So, his odds to be Next President on Betfair should be at worst (let's round up) at about 7.
I just managed to buy at 19. That's value.
Like the probability of Rishi's Conservatives getting a majority at the last election.
Totally agreed we need Kamala to win this. The world and Ukraine especially needs it.
Go Kamala. 🇺🇦
"We could spend several thousand words pulling apart all the other absurd nonsense in the document, pointing out staggeringly obvious flaws like pinning the whole plan on support for the SNP, which is currently electoral toxic waste leaking out of the sewers of a burning nuclear power station. But why bother when even the most basic building blocks are made out of poorly-set jelly?
Wings is, and all Yes supporters should be, absolutely grossly insulted by this mind-bogglingly cretinous idea. It isn’t just stupid, it’s offensively, galactically stupid.
It’s laughing openly in your face. It’s pissing in your pocket and telling you it’s raining. It’s the dust from the dregs of the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel, a hopefully-last desperate attempt at grifting from a “grassroots” organisation that struggled to put 1500 people on the streets on a nice sunny day this April even when led by the First Minister and with the full backing of the Scottish Government. "
https://wingsoverscotland.com/daydream-nation/#more-145934
I think I have him down as an undecided.
But a bit like the abdication crisis hangs over the monarchy in this country, Watergate hangs over the US, and I can’t see Biden wanting to join the club of two with Nixon.
You can't say you're too ill to be candidate but are ok to be POTUS.
But more importantly, the second he steps down it all becomes about ensuring Kamala wins to beat Trump. Kamala has a better chance of winning as the incumbent.
I mean, yeah, he's old and doddery as well - but that's a slightly separate thing.
It'll be tough enough to beat Trump now given how much this has been ballsed up.
Big client requires that I use one of their machines to access SAP which the current phase of the project I’m working on requires. So they ship me a laptop. From Spain. With a Spanish language keyboard.
Had to present a slide deck to corporate team so will use the thing (diplomacy - otherwise it’s purely for SAP and my company’s MacBook does the heavy lifting).
We’ll say nothing about the crippled Windows build they have installed on it. And poke a finger at a matte screen with about 5 nits of brightness. Which doesn’t matter if it’s docked. As they are in Madrid or Lyon. But less useful in the field. Which anywhere not in an office is…
Not sure grifting should be in his invective armoury either.
But that won't bother them at all if they can get some sycophantic burbling's from right wing media and some rich fools easily parted from their money. It's a grim prospect.
Besides his personal reluctance to leave the White House prematurely (in his eyes certainly) there is this question: would elevating Kamala Harris to the Presidency BEFORE the November election really HELP her win the White House for the next four years?
My guess is that it would NOT, which I realize is somewhat counter to what's now passing for prevailing wisdom, at least on PB.
Reason I think making KH POTUS prior to EDay would be counter-productive, is that it would come across as a cheap political trick to millions of voters, and NOT just Republicans and/or Trump fans.
Who might not care, or not much IF we were talking about a Senator or Governor. But President is a different order of magnitude to put it mildly.
Further note, that it's Trump's overt, constant, public disdain for politics as usual, and the usual suspect politicos (even if more rhetorical than sincere) is THE rocket fuel that has made DJT America's leading ANTI-politician.
IF Joe Biden wants to remain POTUS through January 2025, what exactly is the mechanism to remove him from office?
Note the provisions of Section 4 of Amendment XXV (Presidential succession & disability):
Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
SSI - Would NOT bet the farm on the above transpiring in 2024.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jul/18/donald-trump-rnc-day-four-jd-vance-republicans-us-politics
https://x.com/mattwridley/status/1813976904971788725?s=61
Now the convention is functionally unbound by such pledges, it has collective power to nominate someone else even if Biden objects.
HOWEVER, unless he steps down as nominee of his own volition (sorta) THEN the resemblance to a political coup becomes VERY strong, certainly for many voters, and NOT all of them on the Trump GOP payroll.
Might just as well accuse Franklin Roosevelt of a "coup" against the pre-1932 Democratic Party (a view held Al Smith & many other Democrat politicos) which was also based on his vote-winning prowess.
I genuinely don’t get Windows. Then again I’ve been increasingly of that mindset for years
Say it ain't so, Joe, please
Say it ain't so
That's not what I wanna hear, Joe
And I got a right to know
Say it ain't so, Joe, please
Say it ain't so
I'm sure they telling us lies, Joe
Please tell us it ain't so
They told us our hero had played his trump card
He doesn't know how to go on
We're clinging to his charm and determined smile
But the good old days have gone
The image and the empire may be failing apart
The money has gotten scarce
One man's word held the country together
But the truth is getting fierce
Say it ain't so, Joe, please
Say it ain't so
We pinned our hopes on you, Joe
And they're ruining our show
Even fits in a reference to Trump.
from wiki -
When Jackson left the criminal court building in the custody of a sheriff after telling his story to the grand jury, he found several hundred youngsters, aged from 6 to 16, waiting for a glimpse of their idol. One child stepped up to the outfielder, and, grabbing his coat sleeve, said:
"It ain't true, is it, Joe?"
"Yes, kid, I'm afraid it is," Jackson replied. The boys opened a path for the ball player and stood in silence until he passed out of sight.
"Well, I'd never have thought it," sighed the lad.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoeless_Joe_Jackson#Black_Sox_Scandal
My betting position is informed by the fact I think he thinks he's the only one who can actually beat Trump.
If its mandatory, inconvenient ones the issue is the administrator not Windows.
'To stop illegal migration, we must also tackle it at source', PM says
https://x.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1813975991653699963
Of course this won't make a drop in the ocean.
And as with the Corbyn fever, or the Johnson fever, the key question isn't about government, or the Otherlot Party.
Political parties have one basic job to do, which is to ensure that their leader is fit to govern the nation, if the call comes. Not necessarily well, but with some minimal fitness. (I'd argue that Michael Foot would have been a rotten PM, with terrible ideas. But also that he was a substantial figure who would have been better at the job than Boris or Jez.)
How, in the name of all that is Yankee Doodle Dandy, have the Republican Party looked at Trump and thought "yes, we'll have some more of that, please?"
Note that Roosevelt's control over HIS party was so great, that he broke the previous glass ceiling against a Third Term - and a Fourth - by winning twice winning re-nomination (1940 & 1944) despite NEVER declaring himself a candidate; instead FDR was "drafted" both times.
In 1940 incidentally against the active opposition of his 1932 & 1936 campaign manager, Jim Farley, who as US Postmaster General (the biggest patronage department of federal govt before WW2) from 1933 to 1940 was effectively the "Party Chief" of the Democratic Party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Farley
They have spent 4 years portraying her as a bumbling, cackling fool. Watch her recently and you’ll see an articulate and measured politician, if uncharismatic. But maybe people will give her a second look. They won’t give Biden that opportunity now - he’s a known quantity.
However, it's possible that FDR might have tried to break the glass even without WWII, as he was concerned that his likely Democratic replacements would NOT uphold his New Deal policies.
Note that, in addition to the looming threat of Hitler, which boosted FDR with many Democrats, Independents AND Republicans, another key factor in favor of his re-nomination in 1940 (and 1944) was belief by many Democratic politicos (including some who disdained him and his New Deal) that having Roosevelt at the top of the ticket was vital to the re-election & prospects of themselves and others in their organizations.
Rather similar methinks to current GOP calculus re: Trump . . . and also to the effort to replace Biden.
There is a similar thing here with Nigel Farage. He comes across as more coherant than Keir Starmer. IE Starmer is pumping £84 million in direct aid to developing countries to try and stop the small boats. It just seems to like a completely irrational policy, compared with a policy of preventing the boats from landing, or shipping the migrants off to Rwanda, etc.
Ultimately it seems likely to me that the coherant will triumph over the irrational, unfortunately.
I get that Wings’ schtick always involved a deal of howling into the void but that seems to be all there is now. Even his much desired aim of the downfall of Sturgeon was initiated by the Zelig of Scotpol Sean Clerkin, so he can’t even claim that.
Interdiction on smugglers routes particularly in the Sahel is one part of solving the issue.
Monday is less than 76 hours away. And he essentially did it less than 2 weeks ago when Clooney et al tried it.
https://x.com/sama/status/1813984333352649087
Sam Altman
towards intelligence too cheap to meter:
https://openai.com/index/gpt-4o-mini-advancing-cost-efficient-intelligence/
15 cents per million input tokens, 60 cents per million output tokens, MMLU of 82%, and fast.
most importantly, we think people will really, really like using the new model.
---
I've run some tests on my local stuff and the results are really very good. So gpt-4 has, effectively for my use-cases, become zero cost.
Different perspectives innit
This seems to me to be somewhat optimistic on a whole series of levels and not entirely connected with the world we live in. But hey, they are better at attacking the SNP than anyone else.
So glad we're no longer party to this shit:
https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-wins-second-term-as-eu-chief-but-only-just-xkbpx875q
Am personally dubious that, had he lived, The Kingfish could have denied FDR re-nomination in 1936.
For what it's worth, was a student (sorta) decades ago at LSU, of T. Harry Williams, who wrote THE biography of Huey Long, based on extensive research including numerous oral interviews with people who played important roles both for & against him. Some revisionism since them, but not enough to displace T. Harry's opus.
Also knew a fellow, who was a young boy in Bogalusa, Louisiana when Huey came to town on a campaign tour. He remembered The Kingfish standing on a cotton bale to address the assembled crowd, mostly local farmers.
"See that man there?" his father said to him, "He's the only one who ever done a damn for folks like us."
ADDENDUM - Huey Long's political style and strategy was VERY similar to that now employed by Donald Trump.
Surely no one is falling for “Isolating with covid” at this point.