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It’s not looking good for Suella Braverman – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I see Andrew Tate earned £21m from his online endeavors, but has paid exactly no income tax in either Romania or the UK.

    Whoops.

    Tax is for little people.

    Honestly, all you need is a good tax adviser with some decent tax minimisation strategies.
    It’s really nowhere near as simple as that. Unless he’s been very very careful with number of days spent in each country, he’s probably going to be Al-Caponed.
    Most of these scammers are nowhere near as smart as they think they are but still get away with everything. But he seems to have gotten too arrogant and egregious to ignore in multiple ways.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited July 8

    Britain is full of these development opportunities, left to wither on the vine by successive governments.

    If Labour can address these, they deserve everyone’s support.

    https://x.com/john_stepek/status/1810258911523491848?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    “Burnley has England's cheapest housing stock. It's less than an hour's commute from Manchester, but there's 1 fast train/hour and I don't know re reliability. Name me a policy that would work faster than doubling frequency and shaving 10 mins off the time”

    And the LibDems number nine target, now.

    Although an unremarked feature of this election outcome is how few credible targets they now have; they won those they had and, for a change, chalked up very few near misses. A big part of that vote efficiency, along with the very low votes in the hopeless spots. The LDs are now essentially on the defensive.

    Sevenoaks being the LibDem no. 14 target tells you all you need to know.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    rcs1000 said:

    More likely 400,000 people who didn't realize they needed to bring ID to the polling station.
    It would be utterly hilarious if they were all Tory voters in the appropriate constituencies required for a Conservative majority.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    Leon said:


    So after the counting in France

    RN 10 million votes - 36%
    NFP - 7.5 million - 25 %
    Macron - 7 million -23%

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-pourquoi-le-rn-a-obtenu-plus-de-voix-mais-moins-de-sieges-que-le-nfp-20240708

    Wait. What?

    She won the popular vote by a canter?
    Nope you can't deduce that. There were more candidates for RN than either NFP or Macron in the 2nd round.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    GIN1138 said:

    Main headline on BBC News website: LORD CAMERON RESIGNS

    Poor TSE. 🌹

    Not like him to piss off and put his trotters up in the wake of humiliating defeat.
    :lol:
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,410
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    Badenoch is the darling of the membership. She will win a Corbyn style landslide if they put her up in the final two.
    Disagree.

    Straws in wind in our whatsapp chat suggests Jenrick gets it.

    Members are less likely to have seen Badenoch on Twitter and more likely to have seen Jenrick on Sunday telly.
    Really? He's well spoken and all but he seems just like a reductive less good version of Baverman to me.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846
    OT football psychologist has short thread on England's penalties
    https://x.com/GeirJordet/status/1810303161405489279
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,030
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Some clues to Thames Water’s fate.

    Poor state of Thames Water a ‘critical risk’ to UK, Starmer and Reeves told
    Exclusive: Whitehall warns firm’s deteriorating infrastructure and £15.6bn debt pose urgent problem
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jul/08/starmer-reeves-briefed-critical-risk-thames-water-whitehall-debt-infrastructure

    I thought things were privatised because they would be run so much better and infrastructure invested in so much more.

    What exactly was the positive here?
    Some Australian fund managers got very rich by redesignating themselves utility experts.
    At our expense.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,030
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Coutinho is too close to Sunak to win the members vote, Braverman and Patel lack support from Tory MPs as the header makes clear. Jenrick and Badenoch have more but probably not enough to make the last 2.

    At the moment Cleverly v Tugendhat is my prediction of the 2 the remaining Tory MPs will put to the members if Cleverly stands, if not then Barclay would take his place. Cleverly or Barclay then winning the members vote

    I agree Cleverly or Barclay are value.

    Cleverly is probably better.
    They both come across as complete non-entities to me, especially Barclay?
    Cleverly is apparently well liked, so there’s that.
    Barclay does not strike me as particularly likeable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    kjh said:

    Leon said:


    So after the counting in France

    RN 10 million votes - 36%
    NFP - 7.5 million - 25 %
    Macron - 7 million -23%

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-pourquoi-le-rn-a-obtenu-plus-de-voix-mais-moins-de-sieges-que-le-nfp-20240708

    Wait. What?

    She won the popular vote by a canter?
    Nope you can't deduce that. There were more candidates for RN than either NFP or Macron in the 2nd round.
    She literally got more votes? Or am I misreading?

    It's quite possible, I am mildly drunk and definitely serene in the Luberon
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,568

    Britain is full of these development opportunities, left to wither on the vine by successive governments.

    If Labour can address these, they deserve everyone’s support.

    https://x.com/john_stepek/status/1810258911523491848?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    “Burnley has England's cheapest housing stock. It's less than an hour's commute from Manchester, but there's 1 fast train/hour and I don't know re reliability. Name me a policy that would work faster than doubling frequency and shaving 10 mins off the time”

    Getting the 50 mile Blackpool-manchester line down from 1hr19 average to something sensible could, long term, be transformational. Doubt it would pass the business case tests though.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    edited July 8
    I’ve been looking at the new Lib Dem intake.

    The median Lib Dem MP is a now a woman called Sarah who studied at a polytech and went on to set up a small charity in Wessex. With a few exceptions, they don’t look especially promising. Nor, to my way of thinking, classically liberal.

    As Starmer has done, Davey needs a few choice Lords appointments.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,030
    carnforth said:

    Britain is full of these development opportunities, left to wither on the vine by successive governments.

    If Labour can address these, they deserve everyone’s support.

    https://x.com/john_stepek/status/1810258911523491848?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    “Burnley has England's cheapest housing stock. It's less than an hour's commute from Manchester, but there's 1 fast train/hour and I don't know re reliability. Name me a policy that would work faster than doubling frequency and shaving 10 mins off the time”

    Getting the 50 mile Blackpool-manchester line down from 1hr19 average to something sensible could, long term, be transformational. Doubt it would pass the business case tests though.
    You could call it something like … northern powerhouse rail…
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,160
    edited July 8
    Pulpstar said:

    mwadams said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Surely the only reason that the Tories would plump for Jenrick or Braverman is if they intended to either merge with, or form an alliance with, Reform?

    There's no electoral benefit for the Tories to either of those two unless Farage/Reform is part of the package.

    I think it'd make sense for the Conservatives and Reform to take a leaf out of Macron's book and mutually stand candidates down next election. The split would broadly be along second places.
    Reform will get plenty more seconds (They might take Llanelli) and the Conservatives will win back a decent haul of seats.
    The pivot to the centre to my mind is for the election after 2029 - but I think a coupon/stand down makes sense next time up to get numbers back up.
    Given just how many Reform second places there were, wouldn't that be consigning the Conservatives to effective 3rd-party status? They'd never be able to govern on their own again.
    I'm not sure that's true. I'll go through the 2nd places of reform in detail and compare to where the Tories won in 2019 once the little one is in bed
    Obviously there's the 5 Reform wins you'd stand the Tories down in

    Conservative 2019 constituencies -> Labour 2024 & Reform 2nd place. (15) - you'd probably allow both Reform and Tories to run here.

    Whitehaven and Workington
    Hull West and Haltemprice
    Wakefield & Rothwell
    Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor
    Leigh and Atherton
    Bridgend
    Telford
    Blackpool South
    Stoke on Trent central
    Thurrock
    Dover & Deal
    Spen Valley
    Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
    Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
    Amber Valley

    Reform 2nd to the Tories (8) Stand down Reform here.
    North East Cambridgeshire
    South Holland and the Deepings
    Maldon
    Brentwood and Ongar
    Louth and Horncastle
    Rayleigh and Wickford
    Isle of Wight East
    Hornchurch and Upminster

    & Reform finished 2nd in 74 Labour held constituencies that Labour held in 2019. Stand down the Tories here.

    Reform would stand down elsewhere where it's a Labour-Tory or Lib Dem-Tory battle.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    Badenoch is the darling of the membership. She will win a Corbyn style landslide if they put her up in the final two.
    Disagree.

    Straws in wind in our whatsapp chat suggests Jenrick gets it.

    Members are less likely to have seen Badenoch on Twitter and more likely to have seen Jenrick on Sunday telly.
    Really? He's well spoken and all but he seems just like a reductive less good version of Baverman to me.
    A 'less good version of Braverman' is honestly a phrase that I have never even considered.

    I feel almost dizzy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    The US media have really turned on Biden press secretary these days.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c98qw93zed5t
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    carnforth said:

    Britain is full of these development opportunities, left to wither on the vine by successive governments.

    If Labour can address these, they deserve everyone’s support.

    https://x.com/john_stepek/status/1810258911523491848?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    “Burnley has England's cheapest housing stock. It's less than an hour's commute from Manchester, but there's 1 fast train/hour and I don't know re reliability. Name me a policy that would work faster than doubling frequency and shaving 10 mins off the time”

    Getting the 50 mile Blackpool-manchester line down from 1hr19 average to something sensible could, long term, be transformational. Doubt it would pass the business case tests though.
    As I think even semi-sentient amoeba know, the business case tests are utter junk, seemingly designed by Treasury to wind the country down.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    IanB2 said:

    Britain is full of these development opportunities, left to wither on the vine by successive governments.

    If Labour can address these, they deserve everyone’s support.

    https://x.com/john_stepek/status/1810258911523491848?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    “Burnley has England's cheapest housing stock. It's less than an hour's commute from Manchester, but there's 1 fast train/hour and I don't know re reliability. Name me a policy that would work faster than doubling frequency and shaving 10 mins off the time”

    And the LibDems number nine target, now.

    Although an unremarked feature of this election outcome is how few credible targets they now have; they won those they had and, for a change, chalked up very few near misses. A big part of that vote efficiency, along with the very low votes in the hopeless spots. The LDs are now essentially on the defensive.

    Sevenoaks being the LibDem no. 14 target tells you all you need to know.
    That’s my fear. The silver linings are there, if we get lucky:

    - A further collapse of Tory support in favour of Reform: I expect we could see that in some post election polls. The Lib Dem lands and targets have some oh the weakest Reform support.
    - Further gains in Scotland and, possibly, in Wales although I sense Plaid are in the ascendancy so any Labour losses might become Plaid targets
    - Hallam
    - A handful of seats where Lab and Lib split the anti Tory vote but LD came second. But these are limited.
    - Godalming and Ash
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601

    NEW THREAD

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:


    So after the counting in France

    RN 10 million votes - 36%
    NFP - 7.5 million - 25 %
    Macron - 7 million -23%

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-pourquoi-le-rn-a-obtenu-plus-de-voix-mais-moins-de-sieges-que-le-nfp-20240708

    Wait. What?

    She won the popular vote by a canter?
    Nope you can't deduce that. There were more candidates for RN than either NFP or Macron in the 2nd round.
    She literally got more votes? Or am I misreading?

    It's quite possible, I am mildly drunk and definitely serene in the Luberon
    They split the seats between them, so the maximum votes each could get was much lower than RN. It was virtually an alliance like CDU/CSU. Hard to predict what the numbers would have been if the two non RN blocs had stood everywhere. The NFP might well have outpolled RN but would have ended up with far fewer seats.
  • bobbobbobbob Posts: 100
    edited July 8
    One of the big what ifs of British politics is if Boris Johnson had got enough Tory MP nominations to replace Truss

    If he had then he would have won the leadership election and things would look different today

    Still wouldn’t rule out a shock return
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399
    I asked ChatGPT for a comedy Manifesto for the UK Reform party.

    I think it missed the point.

    The Reform Party's Comedy Manifesto: A Laughing Matter for a Better UK

    Ladies and gentlemen, esteemed citizens,and those who just happened to wander in out of curiosity, welcome to the Reform Party’s Comedy Manifesto! We firmly believe that a nation that laughs together, prospers
    together. So, while others might take politics too seriously, we’re here to inject a bit of humor into the mix and reform the UK with a smile.

    1. A Parliament of Puns

    Our first reform is simple: mandatory puns in all parliamentary debates. Why argue angrily when you can wordplay your way to a win? A "pun-ishment" system will be put in place: those who refuse to participate will be required to listen to a full hour of the Speaker’s dad jokes.

    2. National Comedy Quota

    Every town and city must host at least one comedy night per month. Local councils will receive funding to ensure even the smallest village gets its fair share of stand-up comedians. Remember, laughter is the best medicine, and with the NHS under strain, we might as well laugh ourselves healthy.

    3. The Laughing Police

    Introducing the world’s first force dedicated to maintaining public joy – The Laughing Police. Equipped with tickle sticks and joke books, they’ll patrol the streets ensuring that no citizen is left unamused. Frowns will be turned upside down, and anyone caught not smiling will be sentenced to a session of slapstick therapy.

    4. Satirical Sundays

    Sunday roasts will take on a new meaning as the BBC will broadcast “Satirical Sundays” where politicians are lampooned by the nation’s best comedians. This will ensure transparency and accountability through the power of humor. If you can’t laugh at yourself, you shouldn’t be in office!

    5. Comedy Curriculum

    We’ll overhaul the national curriculum to include lessons in stand-up comedy, sketch writing, and improv. Our aim is to nurture the next generation of comedians who can make light of even the most serious situations. After all, who needs calculus when you can crack a good joke?

    6. The Great British Laugh-Off

    A nationwide competition to find the funniest person in Britain. Open to all ages, this annual event will bring communities together and remind us that, despite our differences, everyone loves a good chuckle. The winner will receive a golden microphone and a year’s supply of Yorkshire Tea.

    7. Tax Breaks for Jokes

    Businesses that incorporate humor into their customer service will receive tax incentives. A happy customer is a returning customer. Imagine the joy of being serenaded with a joke as you’re handed your morning coffee or checking out your groceries with a grin.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,399
    8. The Ministry of Mirth

    We will establish a new government department dedicated to ensuring the happiness of our citizens. The Ministry of Mirth will be responsible for nationwide initiatives to boost morale, including the distribution of free joke books and organizing national tickle competitions.

    Conclusion

    The Reform Party is serious about not being too serious. Our Comedy Manifesto is a commitment to making the UK a brighter, happier place. Because let’s face it, the world can be a tough place, and sometimes, the only way to get through it is with a good laugh. So, vote for us, and let’s turn the UK into the United Kingdom of Chuckles and Cheer!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:


    So after the counting in France

    RN 10 million votes - 36%
    NFP - 7.5 million - 25 %
    Macron - 7 million -23%

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-pourquoi-le-rn-a-obtenu-plus-de-voix-mais-moins-de-sieges-que-le-nfp-20240708

    Wait. What?

    She won the popular vote by a canter?
    Nope you can't deduce that. There were more candidates for RN than either NFP or Macron in the 2nd round.
    She literally got more votes? Or am I misreading?

    It's quite possible, I am mildly drunk and definitely serene in the Luberon
    She only got more votes because she stood in more seats than the other two. It is like claiming when the SNP cleaned up.at the last election they did really badly because they only got 5%. That is clearly nonsense
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here comes the traditional Civil Service wishlist again.

    Exhibit 1: Road pricing. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/08/labour-must-consider-pay-per-mile-road-tax/

    We’ll probably have ID cards tomorrow.

    We had an interesting and balanced debate about road pricing earlier. I personally think per mile pricing is wrong, as it punishes the wrong kind of journey. It's the shorter, urban journeys where alternatives exist that you want to make relatively less attractive, while making journeys in rural areas much cheaper.

    A general policy of reducing the fixed costs of motoring while increasing the marginal costs can only be a good thing though.
    Pity that government policy to move everybody to EVs does the exact opposite then.

    Massively increased up front costs to purchase, plus steep increases in annual insurance bills, but then very cheap to run (almost entirely because of a tax arbitrage - diesel cars would be cheaper to run if diesel and electricity were taxed the same) particularly on short journeys where you don't have to recharge away from home.
    Ummm:

    Not true, even in the UK.

    Maintenance costs are dramatically lower for electric cars because they are mechanically much simpler.

    Now, on fuel alone you are probably correct (at least in the UK)... but I wouldn't like to bet on that continuing. Electricity prices are going to fall quite a long way from here.
    Err - what maintainance costs? My dirty old diesel Passat needs an oil change every 10k miles that takes under ten minutes, requires under £20 in oil and two £5 filters (oil and air). It needs a bonus £5 fuel filter every 20k miles and a £300 (all in costs from a reputable garage, did it earlier this year) timing belt change about every 80k miles. I think all in that lot sets me back a whopping 0.8p/mile.

    By far most expensive aspect of it's running costs after fuel is tyres, and being heavier EVs wear them out faster.

    Yes, if you buy a new merc and get the dealership to service it they'll cheerfully stiff you for £300 a basic service, but that's just them charging a mug tax on £25 of stuff and 15 mins labour to people foolish enough to pay it.
    You know how engines work, right?

    Little explosions that drive pistons. Those explosions, and the thermal expansion and contraction, causes wear and tear.

    All vehicles have parts that wear out, and cars with petrol and diesel engines have lots of them. You might have got lucky this year, but the data is not really up for debate here: cars with explosion powered engines need to have parts replaced more often.

    Even brakes and brake pads wear out faster on explosion powered cars, because they don't have the benefit of regenerative braking.
    I've been playing the bamgernomics game for a long time now, and I'm afraid it's fundamentally not true that IC engined cars need work because of their IC engines. That was the case 40 years ago, but unless you buy really poor quality vehicles (e.g. Ford or Renault) vehicles engines now usually have design lives comfortably in excess of the lifespan of the rest of the vehicle.

    My Passat at 15 years old and 160k miles has had a couple of brake pipes, a repair to the wiring to the handbrake, three springs and a heater blower fan. I'm fairly confident they engine and gearbox will more than outlive the bodyshell without any major work - they seem to be good for 250-300k miles if you don't let the servicing slip.

    Wife's 2009 Kia rio, 120k miles - I've welded up holes in the front subframe, I've changed all the brake pipes, I've changed all the bushes and ball joints on the front wishbone, I've replaced the ignition barrel. All I've ever done to the engine is shove oil in it at the required service intervals. It's fairly obviously going to rust away before the engine and gearbox give up.

    My old 2008 Yaris - sold at 160k miles, having owned from 33k. Never touched the engine beyond servicing. Did replace all the wheel bearings, all the brakes lines, and the rear brakes because the handbrake components rotted away and fell to bits.

    My 1997 Skoda 1.9 Fellicia pickup. Sold running just fine at at least 120k miles (I reckoned it was probably clocked) and 15 years old, but with what was going to be terminal corrosion virtually everywhere.

    You get the picture - it's suspension components and rusty brake pipes that you end up fixing on old cars, and EVs will be harder on the suspension components because they are heavier. You just don't have to touch the mechanical bits of ICE cars any more beyond dirt cheap servicing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:


    So after the counting in France

    RN 10 million votes - 36%
    NFP - 7.5 million - 25 %
    Macron - 7 million -23%

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-pourquoi-le-rn-a-obtenu-plus-de-voix-mais-moins-de-sieges-que-le-nfp-20240708

    Wait. What?

    She won the popular vote by a canter?
    Nope you can't deduce that. There were more candidates for RN than either NFP or Macron in the 2nd round.
    She literally got more votes? Or am I misreading?

    It's quite possible, I am mildly drunk and definitely serene in the Luberon
    She only got more votes because she stood in more seats than the other two. It is like claiming when the SNP cleaned up.at the last election they did really badly because they only got 5%. That is clearly nonsense
    So, she got more votes. Got it
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,722
    edited July 8

    rcs1000 said:

    More likely 400,000 people who didn't realize they needed to bring ID to the polling station.
    It would be utterly hilarious if they were all Tory voters in the appropriate constituencies required for a Conservative majority.
    Unlikely to be Tories but you can have your wet dream
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,240

    In Washington, spare a thought for Karine Jean-Pierre who is having to go into bat for Biden at the press briefing right now. The media smell blood. This isn’t going away.

    The Trump conviction didn't impact the polls at all but the Biden story has definitely made at least some difference.

    Latest RCP averages:

    National - Trump +3.4
    National 5 way - Trump +4.9

    Texas - Trump +9.3
    Ohio - Trump +8.7
    Florida - Trump +7.8
    Arizona - trump +5.4
    Pennsylvania - Trump +5.3
    Nevada - Trump +5.2 - TIPPING POINT STATE
    Georgia - Trump +4.0
    Wisconsin - Trump +1.5
    Michigan - Trump +0.6
    Virginia - Biden +2.2
    Minnesota - Biden +3.0
    New Hampshire - Biden +3.0
    Colorado - Biden +6.5

    So Trump is in a strong position according to the polls. If there is a 1.5 point swing to Biden then Trump still wins (287-251). If there is a 1.5 point swing to Trump then he could blow out 339-199 (in such a scenario he would also have a shot at the less often polled Maine and NE2).

    It's crazy that Biden is still carrying on.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    WillG said:

    The referee for the England-Netherland games previously got in trouble for match fixing, and sued Jude Bellingham when criticized for it.

    https://www.thetimes.com/sport/football/article/felix-zwayer-england-holland-referee-semi-final-euro-2024-7clfddjz5

    UEFA is corrupt at hell.

    In other news, bears shit in the woods...
    So presumably UEFA want Netherlands in the final and we should all bet accordingly? DYOR.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    edited July 8
    rcs1000 said:

    More likely 400,000 people who didn't realize they needed to bring ID to the polling station.
    Too dumb for the vote if that’s the case. It was all over the media, on the poll card itself and has been a thing for the previous council elections. At some point you have to ask should they be allowed the vote if they are not up to speed on something so basic?
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,240
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Coutinho is too close to Sunak to win the members vote, Braverman and Patel lack support from Tory MPs as the header makes clear. Jenrick and Badenoch have more but probably not enough to make the last 2.

    At the moment Cleverly v Tugendhat is my prediction of the 2 the remaining Tory MPs will put to the members if Cleverly stands, if not then Barclay would take his place. Cleverly or Barclay then winning the members vote

    I agree Cleverly or Barclay are value.

    Cleverly is probably better.
    They both come across as complete non-entities to me, especially Barclay?
    For me the first question is what will the nomination threshold be. In 2022 (1st contest), the threshold was 20 MPs and 8 candidates made it to the 1st round.

    Having 8 candidates starting out would be a bit ridiculous with only 121 MPs, so my guess is that they will set the threshold to get a max of 4-5 candidates in the 1st round. This then leads to some consolidation prior to the 1st vote.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252

    AlsoLei said:

    148grss said:

    The interesting bit of the LOTO gig for the Tory winner will be having to oppose on substance when for so long the focus has been on performative dividing lines. Asking the PM what a woman is during PMQs is probably not going to cut the mustard.

    Neither will be shouting "he didn't answer my question" once Starmer probably starts answering questions. If I were the Tory Party I'd have Sunak stay on for a while as caretaker, not make any waves, and only attack Labour for anything massively egregious to Tory principles. Because the answer can, and likely will be, "you guys lost, fucked up the country even worse than we thought, and we're doing the long hard work of putting it back together again. Rome wasn't built in a day, and fixing Britain after 14 years of Tory rule will take longer than a week / month / few months"
    My advice to him would be to restrict his attacks to matters of delivery, not policy. Start banging the "why haven't you started work on this since you agree that it's so important?" drum as early as possible.

    Yesterday's announcement that they're going to place an ad to recruit a leader of the new Border Security Command is an obvious example. Starmer has been talking about this since mid-May as part of his 'First Steps for Change' campaign, so why are they faffing around with job ads? Why haven't they already got someone ready to go?

    The other thing he needs to do is to get all of the probable contenders into the top shad cab jobs - including those who've previously been sacked like Braverman and Jenrick. That's going to cause some controversy, but they won't actually be running anything or even tasked with developing policy, it's purely to give them a chance to showcase their parliamentary skills.
    Because they worship at the technocratic altar of correct process and procedure at all times and in all regards.

    It will be their undoing
    They are virtually guaranteed to be complying with legal obligations regarding due process in public hires, there to prevent corruption and cronyism in government. After the last few years I am in favour of this sort of legislation but the point about laws is you obey them, like it or not. Otherwise you have a standards commissioner on the case and kimonofoxbatman judicial reviewing yo sorry ass.
    Yes this is part of the problem. They spent 1997 to 2010 introducing all sorts of procedures and regulations and commissioners and meaning everything has to be followed to the letter or else judicial reviews all round. All to stop wicked Tories doing bad things. Now its stopping them doing essential things.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    The referee for the England-Netherland games previously got in trouble for match fixing, and sued Jude Bellingham when criticized for it.

    https://www.thetimes.com/sport/football/article/felix-zwayer-england-holland-referee-semi-final-euro-2024-7clfddjz5

    UEFA is corrupt at hell.

    It is indeed. As is FIFA.

    It's what happens when you have a completely unaccountable body through which hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue flows.
    Much like the EU. Have their accounts been signed off yet?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,059

    I’ve been looking at the new Lib Dem intake.

    The median Lib Dem MP is a now a woman called Sarah who studied at a polytech and went on to set up a small charity in Wessex. With a few exceptions, they don’t look especially promising. Nor, to my way of thinking, classically liberal.

    As Starmer has done, Davey needs a few choice Lords appointments.

    "Polytechnics" haven't existed under that name since 1992. They'd've been born on/before 1974. Are they all fifty years old or older?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,883

    I’ve been looking at the new Lib Dem intake.

    The median Lib Dem MP is a now a woman called Sarah who studied at a polytech and went on to set up a small charity in Wessex. With a few exceptions, they don’t look especially promising. Nor, to my way of thinking, classically liberal.

    As Starmer has done, Davey needs a few choice Lords appointments.

    Made me laugh
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    viewcode said:

    I’ve been looking at the new Lib Dem intake.

    The median Lib Dem MP is a now a woman called Sarah who studied at a polytech and went on to set up a small charity in Wessex. With a few exceptions, they don’t look especially promising. Nor, to my way of thinking, classically liberal.

    As Starmer has done, Davey needs a few choice Lords appointments.

    "Polytechnics" haven't existed under that name since 1992. They'd've been born on/before 1974. Are they all fifty years old or older?
    The average age of MPs at a GE is usually about 50, so it is possible I suppose, though since nearly all the LD MPs are new I am assuming they are younger than is average. In 2019 5 of the 11 LD MPs were over 50.
    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/house-of-commons-trends-the-age-of-mps/
This discussion has been closed.