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It’s not looking good for Suella Braverman – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 10 in General
imageIt’s not looking good for Suella Braverman – politicalbetting.com

? EXCLUSIVE: Suella Braverman’s Tory leadership campaign dealt blow as key ally abandons her https://t.co/7j5FapRYlE

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,019
    Thanks, have taken the tenner available at 70-1 on Betfair.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Why are there no odds on Nick Timothy? Clearly the most talented person in the parliamentary party.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    "She seems relatively sane" is the main argument against backing her, I guess? :wink:
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,019
    edited July 8

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    He's written a letter telling the fidgetty Democrat arseholes on Capitol Hill that he's going nowhere. They need to get behind him, he's my big green for POTUS right now.
  • Options
    WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 150
    Until she can satisfactorily explain how despite having control of the Home Office she lacked the ability to use the levers of power to achieve what she wanted to achieve, and left whinging in the sunday newspaper. Pathetic.
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229
    Shortening like crazy on bfx. Gambling commission gonna be feeling our collars
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,365
    I'm on Claire Coutinho too. Though there may be an element of hopecasting in there. (I know relatively little about her, but she's always seemed quite assured in front of the camera, and fits my view of where the Tories should position themselves.)
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489

    Just need Roger or Leon to say 'no' and this bet is a nailed on winner.

    "she’s the sort of person that would unplug somebody’s life support machine so she could charge her mobile"

    I don't know if that refers to Suella but if so she's got to be a shoo-in
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,019
    So a Liverpool fan tips up Coutinho. If this comes off it'll be back of the net.
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    WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 150
    On the issue of planning, it seems only six months ago that to my local labour councillors "nutrient neutrality" was the most important thing in planning, and that only the kind of person who like to dump shit into the rivers would consider repealing the requirements.
    I know locally there are about two or three large developments that are currently stuck on hiatus entirely due to the struggle to fulfil that aspect.
    If the Government are wanting to get Britain building, then this is one of the areas that will need to be revisited.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Roger said:

    Just need Roger or Leon to say 'no' and this bet is a nailed on winner.

    "she’s the sort of person that would unplug somebody’s life support machine so she could charge her mobile"

    I don't know if that refers to Suella but if so she's got to be a shoo-in
    Suella.
  • Options
    BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,041
    edited July 8

    Why are there no odds on Nick Timothy? Clearly the most talented person in the parliamentary party.

    He master-minded a terrible election. He's a grade A prat.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Pulpstar said:

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    He's written a letter telling the fidgetty Democrat arseholes on Capitol Hill that he's going nowhere. They need to get behind him, he's my big green for POTUS right now.
    Then he can stand as an independent - the Democratic party can run whoever they want.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    tyson said:

    As much as I was amazed by Andy JS predictions on election night, I have never given you credit (not even a smidgeon) TSE in all these many years for your wit, great one liners, borderline smut, zingers and double entendres that helps make this site a daily goto....

    On many, many occasions TSE you have brought a smile to my face and a lift to my day without knowing it...( and I am sure to countless others)

    So describing Suella as "a person who would turn off your life support machine to charge her mobile phone.."....as Jimmy Carson would say "that's a Cracker..."

    Aww thanks, it is a pleasure.

    The line I am most proud of from the election campaign

    After July 5th I suspect the only way Rishi Sunak and all other Tories will be able to talk about the election defeat will be in a therapist’s office with dolls.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/06/26/its-not-getting-any-better-for-the-tories/
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Coutinho is too close to Sunak to win the members vote, Braverman and Patel lack support from Tory MPs as the header makes clear. Jenrick and Badenoch have more but probably not enough to make the last 2.

    At the moment Cleverly v Tugendhat is my prediction of the 2 the remaining Tory MPs will put to the members if Cleverly stands, if not then Barclay would take his place. Cleverly or Barclay then winning the members vote
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    On Coutinho. I agree. I'm on at 60.

    But she is untested.

    Would a long campaign into conference give her 'testing' time?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    No love for IDS?

    For shame...
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229
    HYUFD said:

    Coutinho is too close to Sunak to win the members vote, Braverman and Patel lack support from Tory MPs as the header makes clear. Jenrick and Badenoch have more but probably not enough to make the last 2.

    At the moment Cleverly v Tugendhat is my prediction of the 2 the remaining Tory MPs will put to the members if Cleverly stands, if not then Barclay would take his place. Cleverly or Barclay then winning the members vote

    She looks a Sunak mini me and if they didn't like him then I don't see them liking her now
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    HYUFD said:

    Coutinho is too close to Sunak to win the members vote, Braverman and Patel lack support from Tory MPs as the header makes clear. Jenrick and Badenoch have more but probably not enough to make the last 2.

    At the moment Cleverly v Tugendhat is my prediction of the 2 the remaining Tory MPs will put to the members if Cleverly stands, if not then Barclay would take his place. Cleverly or Barclay then winning the members vote

    Is it definitely going to members?

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    JL Partners poll out Biden 42% Trump 47%, Harris 38% Trump 49%.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13593757/president-kamala-harris-biden-replace-poll-trump.html

    Morning Consult battleground polls have Biden still ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin

    https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/swing-state-polling-july-2024
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Cookie said:

    I'm on Claire Coutinho too. Though there may be an element of hopecasting in there. (I know relatively little about her, but she's always seemed quite assured in front of the camera, and fits my view of where the Tories should position themselves.)

    It's based on the assumption she's made Shadow Chancellor, if that happens it is a great trading bet.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    Pulpstar said:

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    He's written a letter telling the fidgetty Democrat arseholes on Capitol Hill that he's going nowhere. They need to get behind him, he's my big green for POTUS right now.
    Then Trump wins.

    Dems are off their nuts continuing to pretend that the emperor is fully dressed.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,019
    edited July 8

    Pulpstar said:

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    He's written a letter telling the fidgetty Democrat arseholes on Capitol Hill that he's going nowhere. They need to get behind him, he's my big green for POTUS right now.
    Then Trump wins.

    Dems are off their nuts continuing to pretend that the emperor is fully dressed.
    Yeah but once he's through the convention I should be able to transfer some of the Biden green to Trump as he'll be sub 3.0 ;)
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,677

    Why are there no odds on Nick Timothy? Clearly the most talented person in the parliamentary party.

    He master-minded a terrible election. He's a grade A prat.
    Not just that, but the first electorate for this process is that Parliamentary Conservative Party. That must still contain a hefty number of vetrans of that particular fiasco.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498

    HYUFD said:

    Coutinho is too close to Sunak to win the members vote, Braverman and Patel lack support from Tory MPs as the header makes clear. Jenrick and Badenoch have more but probably not enough to make the last 2.

    At the moment Cleverly v Tugendhat is my prediction of the 2 the remaining Tory MPs will put to the members if Cleverly stands, if not then Barclay would take his place. Cleverly or Barclay then winning the members vote

    Is it definitely going to members?

    Yes unless CCHQ and the 1922 cttee want a riot on their hands
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774

    Pulpstar said:

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    He's written a letter telling the fidgetty Democrat arseholes on Capitol Hill that he's going nowhere. They need to get behind him, he's my big green for POTUS right now.
    Then Trump wins.

    Dems are off their nuts continuing to pretend that the emperor is fully dressed.
    At least if he wins in a landslide it should avoid any doubts about his legitimacy this time.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498

    Pulpstar said:

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    He's written a letter telling the fidgetty Democrat arseholes on Capitol Hill that he's going nowhere. They need to get behind him, he's my big green for POTUS right now.
    Then Trump wins.

    Dems are off their nuts continuing to pretend that the emperor is fully dressed.
    At least if he wins in a landslide it should avoid any doubts about his legitimacy this time.
    Which he would do v Harris as JL Partners poll shows
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    Scott_xP said:

    No love for IDS?

    For shame...

    It's so mad it might just happen.
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229

    Pulpstar said:

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    He's written a letter telling the fidgetty Democrat arseholes on Capitol Hill that he's going nowhere. They need to get behind him, he's my big green for POTUS right now.
    Then Trump wins.

    Dems are off their nuts continuing to pretend that the emperor is fully dressed.
    https://maketrumploseagain.substack.com/p/how-to-stop-trump-call-your-representatives

    Is interesting (Dems campaigning to get Biden out)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,019

    Pulpstar said:

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    He's written a letter telling the fidgetty Democrat arseholes on Capitol Hill that he's going nowhere. They need to get behind him, he's my big green for POTUS right now.
    Then Trump wins.

    Dems are off their nuts continuing to pretend that the emperor is fully dressed.
    At least if he wins in a landslide it should avoid any doubts about his legitimacy this time.
    Can't see a landslide for either side tbh, for all Joe's sins he hasn't Liz Trussed the US economy.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    Pulpstar said:

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    He's written a letter telling the fidgetty Democrat arseholes on Capitol Hill that he's going nowhere. They need to get behind him, he's my big green for POTUS right now.
    Then Trump wins.

    Dems are off their nuts continuing to pretend that the emperor is fully dressed.
    And no one man should be above the party and the nation - which is a huge part of the criticism of Donald Trump. By continuing this fight, Biden is eating into his USP; that Trump is uniquely megalomaniacal and that he's just Scranton Joe, fighting for the continuation of politics as normal democracy.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    He's written a letter telling the fidgetty Democrat arseholes on Capitol Hill that he's going nowhere. They need to get behind him, he's my big green for POTUS right now.
    Then Trump wins.

    Dems are off their nuts continuing to pretend that the emperor is fully dressed.
    Yeah but once he's through the convention I should be able to transfer some of the Biden green to Trump as he'll be sub 3.0 ;)
    Until the poll bounces after each convention have come through the picture now is not what it will be in September when Trump's sentencing and the second and final debate are also due
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 12,365

    Why are there no odds on Nick Timothy? Clearly the most talented person in the parliamentary party.

    He master-minded a terrible election. He's a grade A prat.
    Hm. I have some sympathy with him there. Four weeks out it seemed like they were going to win so easily that they could take the opportunity to do something electorally difficult and yet right. A pity the electorate rejected it so utterly.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Pulpstar said:

    So a Liverpool fan tips up Coutinho. If this comes off it'll be back of the net.

    I promise to be typically modest and self effacing if it comes off.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,743
    History books will not be kind to Biden.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    He's written a letter telling the fidgetty Democrat arseholes on Capitol Hill that he's going nowhere. They need to get behind him, he's my big green for POTUS right now.
    The Yanks love a comeback story...and Joe's dismal ratings reflect the fact that people just think he is senile rather than bad...

    but this one Pulps is too much of an ask even for Biden...because he is senile and he wouldn't stand up to a campaign...

    and Biden was my greatest win on political betting...I got him at 50-1 for Obama's running mate
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Odds on betfair for Joe Biden to be Domocrat nominee have gone from

    2.65 @12pm today

    To

    1.89 @ 3pm

    Big shift, any reason? Nothing new seems to have broken

    He's written a letter telling the fidgetty Democrat arseholes on Capitol Hill that he's going nowhere. They need to get behind him, he's my big green for POTUS right now.
    Then Trump wins.

    Dems are off their nuts continuing to pretend that the emperor is fully dressed.
    And no one man should be above the party and the nation - which is a huge part of the criticism of Donald Trump. By continuing this fight, Biden is eating into his USP; that Trump is uniquely megalomaniacal and that he's just Scranton Joe, fighting for the continuation of politics as normal democracy.
    "Malarkey! Donald Trump lied 27 times or whatever the hell it was. He couldn't get Mitterrand to open the border to Gaza like I did."
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,459
    glw said:

    History books will not be kind to Biden.

    Kinder if he quits now or shortly than if he doesn't.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,290
    The interesting bit of the LOTO gig for the Tory winner will be having to oppose on substance when for so long the focus has been on performative dividing lines. Asking the PM what a woman is during PMQs is probably not going to cut the mustard.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    edited July 8
    Tory leadership race: Badenoch 'the one to beat' and Braverman 'dead in the water'
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQK-0DezQBU

    ConHome guy & ex-chief whip Mark Spencer on Times Radio (13 mins clip)
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    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    glw said:

    History books will not be kind to Biden.

    They'll be much harsher on the GOP cucks that enabled Trump particularly SCOTUS, who I didn't think could come up with a worse ruling than Dred Scott but they managed it with the immunity ruling.

    If Trump wins, Biden's last act should be assasinate Trump for the LOLs.
    Why stop there - steal the election; talking to the army is part of his official duties, so is talking to the VP, and so on and so on. But, again, the Dems won't use the tools even to safeguard themselves as they are being waved in front of them, the GOP taunting them and describing the terrible things they plan to do with these tools once they are at their disposal.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,459

    "Braverman is the sort of person that would unplug somebody’s life support machine so she could charge her mobile."

    And Jenrick, isn't????

    To be fair, maybe he would only do it if the person concerned was a traumatised child refugee.

    So much of the issue with refugees is that a lot of people (probably mainly on the right) do not believe their stories. They think we are being played. You can see that mentality at work here. Jenrick clearly didn't think the centre WAS dealing with traumatized kids, hence he didn't want it to be a nicer space.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Who are people thinking will be Trump's running mate? I saw a lot of chatter last week about General Flynn - which in my mind would be extremely suggestive of how off the rails Trump plans to be.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,019
    148grss said:

    Who are people thinking will be Trump's running mate? I saw a lot of chatter last week about General Flynn - which in my mind would be extremely suggestive of how off the rails Trump plans to be.

    Could be anyone which is why it's not a bad idea to be green the field betting wise on POTUS - whoever it is will shorten up.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited July 8

    "Braverman is the sort of person that would unplug somebody’s life support machine so she could charge her mobile."

    And Jenrick, isn't????

    To be fair, maybe he would only do it if the person concerned was a traumatised child refugee.

    He's realised his sin and apologised


    https://inews.co.uk/news/robert-jenrick-regret-mickey-mouse-mural-painting-over-3011486
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,365
    148grss said:

    Who are people thinking will be Trump's running mate? I saw a lot of chatter last week about General Flynn - which in my mind would be extremely suggestive of how off the rails Trump plans to be.

    I think Trump is enjoying prompting internet chatter - there's been at least ten unlikely names so far. I've got a small bet on Tom Cotton on no better grounds than I want to win a 100-1 bet.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    Cookie said:

    I'm on Claire Coutinho too. Though there may be an element of hopecasting in there. (I know relatively little about her, but she's always seemed quite assured in front of the camera, and fits my view of where the Tories should position themselves.)

    You wait 300 years for an Indian heritage Tory leader and then two come along at once? The law of averages is against it.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    The interesting bit of the LOTO gig for the Tory winner will be having to oppose on substance when for so long the focus has been on performative dividing lines. Asking the PM what a woman is during PMQs is probably not going to cut the mustard.

    Neither will be shouting "he didn't answer my question" once Starmer probably starts answering questions. If I were the Tory Party I'd have Sunak stay on for a while as caretaker, not make any waves, and only attack Labour for anything massively egregious to Tory principles. Because the answer can, and likely will be, "you guys lost, fucked up the country even worse than we thought, and we're doing the long hard work of putting it back together again. Rome wasn't built in a day, and fixing Britain after 14 years of Tory rule will take longer than a week / month / few months"
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,508

    Roger said:

    Just need Roger or Leon to say 'no' and this bet is a nailed on winner.

    "she’s the sort of person that would unplug somebody’s life support machine so she could charge her mobile"

    I don't know if that refers to Suella but if so she's got to be a shoo-in
    Suella.
    You’re forgetting that half the remaining Tory members are on life support machines.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111
    edited July 8
    Surely the only reason that the Tories would plump for Jenrick or Braverman is if they intended to either merge with, or form an alliance with, Reform?

    There's no electoral benefit for the Tories to either of those two unless Farage/Reform is part of the package.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Day 4 of chaos with Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak has yet to resign and emigrate to California, as widely predicted, not least on pb.
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229
    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    If they genuinely don't exist I would think anyone who signed the nomination paper is in deep trouble
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Surely the only reason that the Tories would plump for Jenrick or Braverman is if they wanted to either merge with, or form an alliance with, Reform?

    There's no electoral benefit for the Tories to either of those two unless Farage/Reform is part of the package.

    Nah, choosing Braverman or Jenrick is because you want the awesomeness of a Cambridge educated lawyer in charge.
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229
    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    I'm on Claire Coutinho too. Though there may be an element of hopecasting in there. (I know relatively little about her, but she's always seemed quite assured in front of the camera, and fits my view of where the Tories should position themselves.)

    You wait 300 years for an Indian heritage Tory leader and then two come along at once? The law of averages is against it.
    It's a good law, that. When I fly I always take a small bomb with me because what are the chances of a plane having two bombs on it?
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111

    Surely the only reason that the Tories would plump for Jenrick or Braverman is if they wanted to either merge with, or form an alliance with, Reform?

    There's no electoral benefit for the Tories to either of those two unless Farage/Reform is part of the package.

    Nah, choosing Braverman or Jenrick is because you want the awesomeness of a Cambridge educated lawyer in charge.
    Yes, they're fabulous adverts for the benefits of a Cambridge education.
    Not.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    Surely the only reason that the Tories would plump for Jenrick or Braverman is if they intended to either merge with, or form an alliance with, Reform?

    There's no electoral benefit for the Tories to either of those two unless Farage/Reform is part of the package.

    If you rule out Braverman and Jenrick over the Reform issue, then who represents the right of the party in this contest. Priti Patel maybe?
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    FossFoss Posts: 750
    edited July 8
    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    His eyes do appear to be different colours (which can happen). And, of course, he looks vac-formed.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111
    edited July 8

    Surely the only reason that the Tories would plump for Jenrick or Braverman is if they intended to either merge with, or form an alliance with, Reform?

    There's no electoral benefit for the Tories to either of those two unless Farage/Reform is part of the package.

    If you rule out Braverman and Jenrick over the Reform issue, then who represents the right of the party in this contest. Priti Patel maybe?
    Maybe Cleverly? He was a Brexiteer, so has right-wing credentials, but less nutty than Patel. I don't think he'd want anything to do with Reform.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,459

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    If they genuinely don't exist I would think anyone who signed the nomination paper is in deep trouble
    Reform picked up 14.3 % of votes nationally - pretty sure they were able to find candidates when they needed them.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,019

    Surely the only reason that the Tories would plump for Jenrick or Braverman is if they intended to either merge with, or form an alliance with, Reform?

    There's no electoral benefit for the Tories to either of those two unless Farage/Reform is part of the package.

    I think it'd make sense for the Conservatives and Reform to take a leaf out of Macron's book and mutually stand candidates down next election. The split would broadly be along second places.
    Reform will get plenty more seconds (They might take Llanelli) and the Conservatives will win back a decent haul of seats.
    The pivot to the centre to my mind is for the election after 2029 - but I think a coupon/stand down makes sense next time up to get numbers back up.
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    theProletheProle Posts: 1,011
    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here comes the traditional Civil Service wishlist again.

    Exhibit 1: Road pricing. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/08/labour-must-consider-pay-per-mile-road-tax/

    We’ll probably have ID cards tomorrow.

    We had an interesting and balanced debate about road pricing earlier. I personally think per mile pricing is wrong, as it punishes the wrong kind of journey. It's the shorter, urban journeys where alternatives exist that you want to make relatively less attractive, while making journeys in rural areas much cheaper.

    A general policy of reducing the fixed costs of motoring while increasing the marginal costs can only be a good thing though.
    Pity that government policy to move everybody to EVs does the exact opposite then.

    Massively increased up front costs to purchase, plus steep increases in annual insurance bills, but then very cheap to run (almost entirely because of a tax arbitrage - diesel cars would be cheaper to run if diesel and electricity were taxed the same) particularly on short journeys where you don't have to recharge away from home.
    Ummm:

    Not true, even in the UK.

    Maintenance costs are dramatically lower for electric cars because they are mechanically much simpler.

    Now, on fuel alone you are probably correct (at least in the UK)... but I wouldn't like to bet on that continuing. Electricity prices are going to fall quite a long way from here.
    Err - what maintainance costs? My dirty old diesel Passat needs an oil change every 10k miles that takes under ten minutes, requires under £20 in oil and two £5 filters (oil and air). It needs a bonus £5 fuel filter every 20k miles and a £300 (all in costs from a reputable garage, did it earlier this year) timing belt change about every 80k miles. I think all in that lot sets me back a whopping 0.8p/mile.

    By far most expensive aspect of it's running costs after fuel is tyres, and being heavier EVs wear them out faster.

    Yes, if you buy a new merc and get the dealership to service it they'll cheerfully stiff you for £300 a basic service, but that's just them charging a mug tax on £25 of stuff and 15 mins labour to people foolish enough to pay it.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    edited July 8
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    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    If they genuinely don't exist I would think anyone who signed the nomination paper is in deep trouble
    You don't have to know the candidate exists to sign nomination papers, though, I thought? Paper candidates for parties often get nominated through signatures collected by activists and not the nominee.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,459
    148grss said:

    The interesting bit of the LOTO gig for the Tory winner will be having to oppose on substance when for so long the focus has been on performative dividing lines. Asking the PM what a woman is during PMQs is probably not going to cut the mustard.

    Neither will be shouting "he didn't answer my question" once Starmer probably starts answering questions. If I were the Tory Party I'd have Sunak stay on for a while as caretaker, not make any waves, and only attack Labour for anything massively egregious to Tory principles. Because the answer can, and likely will be, "you guys lost, fucked up the country even worse than we thought, and we're doing the long hard work of putting it back together again. Rome wasn't built in a day, and fixing Britain after 14 years of Tory rule will take longer than a week / month / few months"
    Give it a few weeks. Politicians specialise in not answering the question, often because the answer would be damaging.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Scott_xP said:

    At the risk of triggering Leon, this is strange...

    https://x.com/Dr_BellaR/status/1810294654790676573

    Yeah, I shared the article that discusses this below
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,424

    Day 4 of chaos with Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak has yet to resign and emigrate to California, as widely predicted, not least on pb.

    Has Sir Keith “Kid Starver” taken some time off personally napalming Gaza to wreck the country, then?
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,459
    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    At the risk of triggering Leon, this is strange...

    https://x.com/Dr_BellaR/status/1810294654790676573

    Yeah, I shared the article that discusses this below
    And that telephone wire looks wrong etc...

    Go and check the count - no doubt he was there?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Perhaps the next election will be won by an entirely AI-generated party, with policies and candidates perfectly designed to appeal to the sweet spot of the electorate.
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    AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 218
    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,478

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
    Presumably there would have to be a by-election if a candidate didn't exist. In fact there's a case for re-running the entire general election!
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708
    edited July 8

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
    A fake or at least AI photograph? Does that count as lying? The law on lying during elections is totally weird (see the judgement in the case of Alistair Carmichael, and IIRC an earlier case somewhere in an inner city - London?).
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,019

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
    Reform got 1758 votes in Clapham, seems likely they'd have been able to find at least someone to stick their name down for them there ?
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
    I'm not sure you can imprison an AI-generated non-person.
    Anyway, the story appears not to be true - he's real.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Carol Vorderman has found a new target:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13611849/Now-Carol-Vorderman-goes-war-Laura-Kuenssberg-Ex-Countdown-host-says-BBC-politics-presenter-dropped-Victoria-Derbyshire-sparked-fury-opinionated-rude-interview-Ed-Davey.html

    Now Carol Vorderman goes to war with Laura Kuenssberg: Ex-Countdown host says the BBC politics presenter should be dropped for Victoria Derbyshire
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    MuesliMuesli Posts: 172

    HYUFD said:

    Coutinho is too close to Sunak to win the members vote, Braverman and Patel lack support from Tory MPs as the header makes clear. Jenrick and Badenoch have more but probably not enough to make the last 2.

    At the moment Cleverly v Tugendhat is my prediction of the 2 the remaining Tory MPs will put to the members if Cleverly stands, if not then Barclay would take his place. Cleverly or Barclay then winning the members vote

    She looks a Sunak mini me and if they didn't like him then I don't see them liking her now
    Now you mention it, she does look like Rishi Sunak in a wig (well, a longer wig anyway). Game over.

    I cannot get my head around the seemingly enduring appeal of scandal magnet Robert Jenrick (but then again I'm not the target audience).

    Surely grassroots darling Kemi Badenoch has one of the two tickets to the membership election sewn up? That'd then leave Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly, Victoria Atkins and HYUFD's personal favourite Steve Barclay battling to represent the sensible wing of the Tories as the other candidate. (Unless Laura Trott fancies *ahem* having a run.)
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    Day 4 of chaos with Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak has yet to resign and emigrate to California, as widely predicted, not least on pb.

    Has Sir Keith “Kid Starver” taken some time off personally napalming Gaza to wreck the country, then?
    I was thinking more about timings for the next leadership race. Many in the party have called for a long contest, even into next year, whilst others say there should be a new leader in place for the budget (so October, just after Conservative party conference). But while this can obviously change any minute, so far Rishi has not precipitated a contest as most thought likely.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
    I'm not sure you can imprison an AI-generated non-person.
    Anyway, the story appears not to be true - he's real.
    But is the photo? We want a Before and After, don't we?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    https://x.com/Itwitius/status/1810328825865396264

    Tim Marshall @Itwitius
    Germany to pull last 40 troops out of Niger by end of Aug after talks with gov broke down. In related news the juntas ruling Niger/Burkina Faso/Mali signed a new treaty formalising their Alliance of Sahel States. France is screwed. The Russians are in. The Chinese are coming.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    At the risk of triggering Leon, this is strange...

    https://x.com/Dr_BellaR/status/1810294654790676573

    Yeah, I shared the article that discusses this below
    And that telephone wire looks wrong etc...

    Go and check the count - no doubt he was there?
    He was not at the count. He was 'sick'
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    Today in Warsaw, Poland’s Prime Minister @donaldtusk and I signed the Agreement on Security Cooperation between Ukraine and the Republic of Poland.

    This unprecedented document includes a provision for shooting down Russian missiles and drones in Ukraine’s airspace that are fired in the direction of Poland. We are committed to implementing it. We will also cooperate on combat aircraft—both those already transferred by Poland and the possibility of transferring more in the future.

    In our security agreement, we have formalized the formation and training of the Ukrainian Legion, a new volunteer military unit, on Polish territory. This unit will be trained in Poland and equipped by our partners.

    https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1810290919888798092
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    148grss said:

    Who are people thinking will be Trump's running mate? I saw a lot of chatter last week about General Flynn - which in my mind would be extremely suggestive of how off the rails Trump plans to be.

    That would be genuinely insane.

    I'm hoping for Doug Burgam.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,019
    rcs1000 said:

    148grss said:

    Who are people thinking will be Trump's running mate? I saw a lot of chatter last week about General Flynn - which in my mind would be extremely suggestive of how off the rails Trump plans to be.

    That would be genuinely insane.

    I'm hoping for Doug Burgam.
    Markets think it'll be either Burgum or Vance.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,261
    edited July 8
    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    At the risk of triggering Leon, this is strange...

    https://x.com/Dr_BellaR/status/1810294654790676573

    Yeah, I shared the article that discusses this below
    And that telephone wire looks wrong etc...

    Go and check the count - no doubt he was there?
    He was not at the count. He was 'sick'
    He was running in my constituency and I was curious. There's someone of that name on the birth register in 95. He has 2 sisters, one of which has pretty loose social media and there's a family photo of someone looking like a non-airbrushed person like him. The most paper of paper candidates, but real as far as I can tell. It's just standard fare FBPE all conspiracy theory zero IQ stuff.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    rcs1000 said:

    148grss said:

    Who are people thinking will be Trump's running mate? I saw a lot of chatter last week about General Flynn - which in my mind would be extremely suggestive of how off the rails Trump plans to be.

    That would be genuinely insane.

    I'm hoping for Doug Burgum.
    As I said on the last thread, the decision is a complete nothingburgum.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,029

    Just need Roger or Leon to say 'no' and this bet is a nailed on winner.

    Isn’t Roger resting on his laurier français?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224
    I'm on Jenrick. He has the right combo of MP and member appeal imo.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,638
    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    Perhaps this is someone who has agreed to be a paper candidate on condition they don't put his photograph on literature?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Coutinho is too close to Sunak to win the members vote, Braverman and Patel lack support from Tory MPs as the header makes clear. Jenrick and Badenoch have more but probably not enough to make the last 2.

    At the moment Cleverly v Tugendhat is my prediction of the 2 the remaining Tory MPs will put to the members if Cleverly stands, if not then Barclay would take his place. Cleverly or Barclay then winning the members vote

    Is it definitely going to members?

    Yes unless CCHQ and the 1922 cttee want a riot on their hands
    The Tories would be mad to let the decision anywhere near their members. Most of them won't be alive by the time the party gets its next credible shot at government.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,424
    edited July 8
    rcs1000 said:

    148grss said:

    Who are people thinking will be Trump's running mate? I saw a lot of chatter last week about General Flynn - which in my mind would be extremely suggestive of how off the rails Trump plans to be.

    That would be genuinely insane.

    I'm hoping for Doug Burgam.
    Is General James Mattoon Scott unavailable?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    A late entry for the ReFuk Boy Band name:

    Grandmaster Fash and the Furious Five
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,449
    Pulpstar said:

    Surely the only reason that the Tories would plump for Jenrick or Braverman is if they intended to either merge with, or form an alliance with, Reform?

    There's no electoral benefit for the Tories to either of those two unless Farage/Reform is part of the package.

    I think it'd make sense for the Conservatives and Reform to take a leaf out of Macron's book and mutually stand candidates down next election. The split would broadly be along second places.
    Reform will get plenty more seconds (They might take Llanelli) and the Conservatives will win back a decent haul of seats.
    The pivot to the centre to my mind is for the election after 2029 - but I think a coupon/stand down makes sense next time up to get numbers back up.
    Given just how many Reform second places there were, wouldn't that be consigning the Conservatives to effective 3rd-party status? They'd never be able to govern on their own again.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,767
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Coutinho is too close to Sunak to win the members vote, Braverman and Patel lack support from Tory MPs as the header makes clear. Jenrick and Badenoch have more but probably not enough to make the last 2.

    At the moment Cleverly v Tugendhat is my prediction of the 2 the remaining Tory MPs will put to the members if Cleverly stands, if not then Barclay would take his place. Cleverly or Barclay then winning the members vote

    Is it definitely going to members?

    Yes unless CCHQ and the 1922 cttee want a riot on their hands
    The Tories would be mad to let the decision anywhere near their members. Most of them won't be alive by the time the party gets its next credible shot at government.
    Not necessarily true. Labour has a tough hand to play, politics has never been so volatile, and strange outcomes become more likely under FPTP now that there are more competitive national parties.

    Which is all the more reason, of course, to keep the Tory leadership decision well away from a small bunch of loopy pensioners.
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    EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 67
    edited July 8

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
    Presumably there would have to be a by-election if a candidate didn't exist. In fact there's a case for re-running the entire general election!
    Not another one?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224
    edited July 8
    Pulpstar said:

    Surely the only reason that the Tories would plump for Jenrick or Braverman is if they intended to either merge with, or form an alliance with, Reform?

    There's no electoral benefit for the Tories to either of those two unless Farage/Reform is part of the package.

    I think it'd make sense for the Conservatives and Reform to take a leaf out of Macron's book and mutually stand candidates down next election. The split would broadly be along second places.
    Reform will get plenty more seconds (They might take Llanelli) and the Conservatives will win back a decent haul of seats.
    The pivot to the centre to my mind is for the election after 2029 - but I think a coupon/stand down makes sense next time up to get numbers back up.
    I think what's required is a reverse Starmer. Become LOTO by projecting Right then tack away from that once in situ.
This discussion has been closed.