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It’s not looking good for Suella Braverman – politicalbetting.com

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  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297

    Is it basically possible to divide up the UK into

    Lib/Con
    Lab/Con
    Con/Ref
    SNP/Lab
    PC/Lab
    Lab/Gaza
    Lab/Green
    Unionist/Republican

    ?

    A map divided this way would show the clear divides between regions.

    If you add up the votes of the Gaza independent candidates, they came second overall in Birmingham.
    I’d love to see the maths on that.
    I've just noticed that he's left out Hodge Hill & Solihull North and Sutton Coldfield but this covers 8 of the 10 Birmingham constituencies:

    https://x.com/sam_bidwell/status/1810267592571097582

    🌹 LAB: 38.8%
    🇵🇸 IND/WPB: 19.7%
    🌳 CON: 14.4%
    ➡️ REF: 12.4%
    🌎 GRN: 8.1%
    🔶 LD: 6.3%

    image
    Seems to check out and is a horrible indictment on Birmingham, really.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Four days in, and:
    - waiting lists haven't come down
    - small boats are still crossing the Channel
    - not one new house has been built
    - not one new wind farm has emerged
    - interest rates still haven't been cut.

    Labour: all promises and no delivery.

    You left out
    _ failure to appoint Second Church Estates Commissioner

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_Commissioners#Church_Estates_Commissioners
    Lord Falconer is AVAILABLE

    Is it basically possible to divide up the UK into

    Lib/Con
    Lab/Con
    Con/Ref
    SNP/Lab
    PC/Lab
    Lab/Gaza
    Lab/Green
    Unionist/Republican

    ?

    A map divided this way would show the clear divides between regions.

    If you add up the votes of the Gaza independent candidates, they came second overall in Birmingham.
    I’d love to see the maths on that.
    I've just noticed that he's left out Hodge Hill & Solihull North and Sutton Coldfield but this covers 8 of the 10 Birmingham constituencies:

    https://x.com/sam_bidwell/status/1810267592571097582

    🌹 LAB: 38.8%
    🇵🇸 IND/WPB: 19.7%
    🌳 CON: 14.4%
    ➡️ REF: 12.4%
    🌎 GRN: 8.1%
    🔶 LD: 6.3%

    image
    Sadly for you it looks like
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I have reached my friend’s house in Provence. He’s gone off to talk to the Taliban in Kabul. For reals

    His house is in one of the most staggeringly beautiful French villages I have ever seen

    Oppède Le Vieux

    https://www.theluberon.com/villages/oppede-le-vieux/

    Dates to pre-Roman times (the word Oppède is Celtic-Roman for fort) yet for centuries it was basically abandoned. Then in the Second World War the author Saint Exupery (yes, him) and a bunch of artists all rescued it

    It has a brilliantly grumpy cafe owner

    I stayed bloody near there a few years ago.
    Does your friend’s house have its own ruined chapel at all?
    Non

    But his house has appeared on the cover of multiple magazines like "Beautiful France"

    It cost him £500k for a barely two bed house in a half ruined village. With no shops. Just a couple of caffs (in season).

    I thought he was mad until I came here today. it's ravishing and serene and because it's quite inaccessible it lacks the tourist hordes that throng Peter Mayle's Menerbes and the rest, yet you're only ten minutes drive from civilisation

    If i ever bought a holiday home (I gravely doubt I will) it would be something like this. Incredibly simple but incredibly beautiful

    Bet it's bloody cold in winter - tho winter probably only lasts 8 weeks

    Ok so the place I went to - twice I think? - was up the road in Taillades.

    But possibly one of the most amazing places I ever stayed.

    You’re right, it’s a remarkable part of the world.

    But beware of the Mistral. It actually gets bloody chilly for many months, not just 8 weeks.
    Yes I've encountered the Mistral. In summer it sends you mad, with shutters banging and doors slamming, in winter it is satanically cold (especially if you are coming off heroin, which I was - you don't want extra cold during cold turkey)

    Indeed the Mistral would probably put me off buying anything here. If I were to buy in France it would be Languedoc, somewhere in the Pyrenees anyway, or maybe the southern Spanish side

    I will check out Taillades! Merci. I have a week here- working on flints in the morning, exploring and walking in the afternoon. Wine and sunsets at night. C'est parfait
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,577

    I see the Telegraph is getting excited about Labour Tax Rises. Expect that to be a nothingburger.

    More of a problem for Labour is how to get anything concrete done before the elections. All very well to simplify planning rules but get rid of things like nutrient neutrality you face years of climate act underpinned in appeals in the court. Don't get rid of nutrient neutrality don't get anything built.

    etc etc.

    It is somewhat ironic that Labour's ability to get houses built will be constrained by all the nimby legislation they have so eagerly supported.

    Quite. It dosen't seem to have occured to them that their most sacred Acts (Equality, ECHR and Climate Change) are going to be the things that impale them and prevent them getting much done in one term.

    By which time the problems will have got far worse and a lot of Labour voters will be listening to Farage saying "I told you so".

    Edit. May upgrading Climate Change to Net Zero was under the Tories but this is also uber sacred to them.
    Perhaps you're underestimating Starmer's ruthlessness. He could just do away with any legislation that gets in the way.

    Only a Labour government can deliver Liz Truss's supply-side agenda.
    Seeing him repeal any of those acts would be very entertaining and probably see most of his MPs defect to Libdems (Galloway for the Left wing ones).
    He could do it by stealth with a Great British Growth Bill to give ministers the power to override any conflicting legislation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    AlsoLei said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Coutinho is too close to Sunak to win the members vote, Braverman and Patel lack support from Tory MPs as the header makes clear. Jenrick and Badenoch have more but probably not enough to make the last 2.

    At the moment Cleverly v Tugendhat is my prediction of the 2 the remaining Tory MPs will put to the members if Cleverly stands, if not then Barclay would take his place. Cleverly or Barclay then winning the members vote

    Is it definitely going to members?

    Yes unless CCHQ and the 1922 cttee want a riot on their hands
    The Tories would be mad to let the decision anywhere near their members. Most of them won't be alive by the time the party gets its next credible shot at government.
    I think they have to, this time round at least.

    26 of their MPs are new to parliament, so don't really have any better basis on which to make a choice than the members. And the other 95 are too small a pool of voters to adequately represent all shades of opinion, especially since five or six (at least!) are likely to be candidates.

    The best they can hope for is a change to the rules to remove the members vote in the case of a sitting PM, when there'll be a much bigger pool of voting MPs by definition.

    The might also want to look at the wording of the question for the members ballot - ask members to choose the "best leader" rather than their "preferred leader". In an ideal world, they'd consider some sort of preference voting system which ought to be ideal for this use case, but I suspect that's beyond them!
    It was the MPs last time that sent the members a choice between Truss and Sunak.

    The fault lies there.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
    I'm not sure you can imprison an AI-generated non-person.
    Anyway, the story appears not to be true - he's real.
    made up by enemies of reform . The fact that many on here seemed to think its true is depressing
    Not entirely 'made up' - but people being silly jumping to conclusions. When looking into some constituency betting I was thinking of going for a Reform candidate and genuinely couldn't find any online presence, nor even any generic quotes to local newspapers. Seems that was perhaps more common - a kind of ultra-paper candidate agreeing to run on the understanding they wouldn't have to do a thing. So appear oddly ghostly. Perhaps signed up to stand as a candidate but really couldn't in this election and were parcelled out nowhere near where they live to fill spots.

    In this case, I think Private Eye found the chap and turned out he'd used an AI image of 'himself' on his website.

    So some people have put the two things together and leapt on the idea that the strongly paper candidates are somehow made up rather than probably a Reform supporter sitting in their living room 200 miles away, but on the ballot to boost the party.
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 715

    algarkirk said:

    I see the Telegraph is getting excited about Labour Tax Rises. Expect that to be a nothingburger.

    More of a problem for Labour is how to get anything concrete done before the elections. All very well to simplify planning rules but get rid of things like nutrient neutrality you face years of climate act underpinned in appeals in the court. Don't get rid of nutrient neutrality don't get anything built.

    etc etc.

    It is somewhat ironic that Labour's ability to get houses built will be constrained by all the nimby legislation they have so eagerly supported.

    It really is a time consuming and expensive rule with real world impacts.
    UK governments have for years been tying their own hands, and of course everyone else's by legislating and regulating to an infinitely complex degree, so that every decision is tied, and every new piece of legislation has to be read in the light of every other piece, and precedent, back to 1190. To say nothing of residual EU legislation still hanging around.

    The coming struggle to get around the NIMBYs, the pressure groups, the commercial interests and political opponents will be interesting.

    Even with a Labour government progressive lawyers still have starving children to feed and of course VAT on school fees on top. They won't be going away.
    There's a site near here where a large pub burned down (in, allegedly, 'questionable' circumstances).
    Your could put 4-6 houses on the site easily. Yet nothing's happened for about four years. Compulsorily purchasing the site and building a few houses would add to the general ambience, although the residents would have a journey to buy milk and bread.
    By invoking Compulsory Purchase you are implying the solution is the state confiscating private property because the land is not being used efficiently. The chances are that the reason the land is being left as it is because the land owners are unable to persuade the local council to allow them to turn it into something else (such as houses).
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    MJW said:

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
    I'm not sure you can imprison an AI-generated non-person.
    Anyway, the story appears not to be true - he's real.
    made up by enemies of reform . The fact that many on here seemed to think its true is depressing
    Not entirely 'made up' - but people being silly jumping to conclusions. When looking into some constituency betting I was thinking of going for a Reform candidate and genuinely couldn't find any online presence, nor even any generic quotes to local newspapers. Seems that was perhaps more common - a kind of ultra-paper candidate agreeing to run on the understanding they wouldn't have to do a thing. So appear oddly ghostly. Perhaps signed up to stand as a candidate but really couldn't in this election and were parcelled out nowhere near where they live to fill spots.

    In this case, I think Private Eye found the chap and turned out he'd used an AI image of 'himself' on his website.

    So some people have put the two things together and leapt on the idea that the strongly paper candidates are somehow made up rather than probably a Reform supporter sitting in their living room 200 miles away, but on the ballot to boost the party.
    As I say, weird that he hasn't indignantly identified himself, nor been IDed by a single constituent.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,812
    MJW said:

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
    I'm not sure you can imprison an AI-generated non-person.
    Anyway, the story appears not to be true - he's real.
    made up by enemies of reform . The fact that many on here seemed to think its true is depressing
    Not entirely 'made up' - but people being silly jumping to conclusions. When looking into some constituency betting I was thinking of going for a Reform candidate and genuinely couldn't find any online presence, nor even any generic quotes to local newspapers. Seems that was perhaps more common - a kind of ultra-paper candidate agreeing to run on the understanding they wouldn't have to do a thing. So appear oddly ghostly. Perhaps signed up to stand as a candidate but really couldn't in this election and were parcelled out nowhere near where they live to fill spots.

    In this case, I think Private Eye found the chap and turned out he'd used an AI image of 'himself' on his website.

    So some people have put the two things together and leapt on the idea that the strongly paper candidates are somehow made up rather than probably a Reform supporter sitting in their living room 200 miles away, but on the ballot to boost the party.
    yes but making up candidates is lllegal and the other is not - people should be careful of believing crap just becasue it is knocking reform
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,124
    edited July 8
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    I have reached my friend’s house in Provence. He’s gone off to talk to the Taliban in Kabul. For reals

    His house is in one of the most staggeringly beautiful French villages I have ever seen

    Oppède Le Vieux

    https://www.theluberon.com/villages/oppede-le-vieux/

    Dates to pre-Roman times (the word Oppède is Celtic-Roman for fort) yet for centuries it was basically abandoned. Then in the Second World War the author Saint Exupery (yes, him) and a bunch of artists all rescued it

    It has a brilliantly grumpy cafe owner

    You can go and irritate Hugh Grant just down the road in Eygalieres
    Stopped off there for an excellent coffee and brandy whilst cycling nearby; jazz band in attendance.

    Mediocre looking street brocante there; spotted a gem. I was busy trying to work out how best I could ship a for sure £5k (retail) antique bookcase and thought I had better check the price first. It was 15 thousand euros!!!!!!
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    I see the Telegraph is getting excited about Labour Tax Rises. Expect that to be a nothingburger.

    More of a problem for Labour is how to get anything concrete done before the elections. All very well to simplify planning rules but get rid of things like nutrient neutrality you face years of climate act underpinned in appeals in the court. Don't get rid of nutrient neutrality don't get anything built.

    etc etc.

    It is somewhat ironic that Labour's ability to get houses built will be constrained by all the nimby legislation they have so eagerly supported.

    Quite. It dosen't seem to have occured to them that their most sacred Acts (Equality, ECHR and Climate Change) are going to be the things that impale them and prevent them getting much done in one term.

    By which time the problems will have got far worse and a lot of Labour voters will be listening to Farage saying "I told you so".

    Edit. May upgrading Climate Change to Net Zero was under the Tories but this is also uber sacred to them.
    Perhaps you're underestimating Starmer's ruthlessness. He could just do away with any legislation that gets in the way.

    Only a Labour government can deliver Liz Truss's supply-side agenda.
    Seeing him repeal any of those acts would be very entertaining and probably see most of his MPs defect to Libdems (Galloway for the Left wing ones).
    He could do it by stealth with a Great British Growth Bill to give ministers the power to override any conflicting legislation.
    That's an implied repeal (or else ineffective).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    edited July 8
    Leon said:

    Four days in, and:
    - waiting lists haven't come down
    - small boats are still crossing the Channel
    - not one new house has been built
    - not one new wind farm has emerged
    - interest rates still haven't been cut.

    Labour: all promises and no delivery.

    You left out
    _ failure to appoint Second Church Estates Commissioner

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_Commissioners#Church_Estates_Commissioners
    Lord Falconer is AVAILABLE

    Is it basically possible to divide up the UK into

    Lib/Con
    Lab/Con
    Con/Ref
    SNP/Lab
    PC/Lab
    Lab/Gaza
    Lab/Green
    Unionist/Republican

    ?

    A map divided this way would show the clear divides between regions.

    If you add up the votes of the Gaza independent candidates, they came second overall in Birmingham.
    I’d love to see the maths on that.
    I've just noticed that he's left out Hodge Hill & Solihull North and Sutton Coldfield but this covers 8 of the 10 Birmingham constituencies:

    https://x.com/sam_bidwell/status/1810267592571097582

    🌹 LAB: 38.8%
    🇵🇸 IND/WPB: 19.7%
    🌳 CON: 14.4%
    ➡️ REF: 12.4%
    🌎 GRN: 8.1%
    🔶 LD: 6.3%

    image
    Sadly for you it looks like
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I have reached my friend’s house in Provence. He’s gone off to talk to the Taliban in Kabul. For reals

    His house is in one of the most staggeringly beautiful French villages I have ever seen

    Oppède Le Vieux

    https://www.theluberon.com/villages/oppede-le-vieux/

    Dates to pre-Roman times (the word Oppède is Celtic-Roman for fort) yet for centuries it was basically abandoned. Then in the Second World War the author Saint Exupery (yes, him) and a bunch of artists all rescued it

    It has a brilliantly grumpy cafe owner

    I stayed bloody near there a few years ago.
    Does your friend’s house have its own ruined chapel at all?
    Non

    But his house has appeared on the cover of multiple magazines like "Beautiful France"

    It cost him £500k for a barely two bed house in a half ruined village. With no shops. Just a couple of caffs (in season).

    I thought he was mad until I came here today. it's ravishing and serene and because it's quite inaccessible it lacks the tourist hordes that throng Peter Mayle's Menerbes and the rest, yet you're only ten minutes drive from civilisation

    If i ever bought a holiday home (I gravely doubt I will) it would be something like this. Incredibly simple but incredibly beautiful

    Bet it's bloody cold in winter - tho winter probably only lasts 8 weeks

    Ok so the place I went to - twice I think? - was up the road in Taillades.

    But possibly one of the most amazing places I ever stayed.

    You’re right, it’s a remarkable part of the world.

    But beware of the Mistral. It actually gets bloody chilly for many months, not just 8 weeks.
    Yes I've encountered the Mistral. In summer it sends you mad, with shutters banging and doors slamming, in winter it is satanically cold (especially if you are coming off heroin, which I was - you don't want extra cold during cold turkey)

    Indeed the Mistral would probably put me off buying anything here. If I were to buy in France it would be Languedoc, somewhere in the Pyrenees anyway, or maybe the southern Spanish side

    I will check out Taillades! Merci. I have a week here- working on flints in the morning, exploring and walking in the afternoon. Wine and sunsets at night. C'est parfait
    There’s not much in Taillades, just an old quarry which has been ingeniously turned into a kind of Roman amphitheatre, and a series of very old houses perched on top of archways which straddle the quarry. I don’t even think it has shops.

    But I recall a lot of noom.

    The Luberon is noom-tastic, really. Although perhaps less so at this time of year. Tourists are anti-noom.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    edited July 8
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here comes the traditional Civil Service wishlist again.

    Exhibit 1: Road pricing. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/08/labour-must-consider-pay-per-mile-road-tax/

    We’ll probably have ID cards tomorrow.

    We had an interesting and balanced debate about road pricing earlier. I personally think per mile pricing is wrong, as it punishes the wrong kind of journey. It's the shorter, urban journeys where alternatives exist that you want to make relatively less attractive, while making journeys in rural areas much cheaper.

    A general policy of reducing the fixed costs of motoring while increasing the marginal costs can only be a good thing though.
    Pity that government policy to move everybody to EVs does the exact opposite then.

    Massively increased up front costs to purchase, plus steep increases in annual insurance bills, but then very cheap to run (almost entirely because of a tax arbitrage - diesel cars would be cheaper to run if diesel and electricity were taxed the same) particularly on short journeys where you don't have to recharge away from home.
    Ummm:

    Not true, even in the UK.

    Maintenance costs are dramatically lower for electric cars because they are mechanically much simpler.

    Now, on fuel alone you are probably correct (at least in the UK)... but I wouldn't like to bet on that continuing. Electricity prices are going to fall quite a long way from here.
    Err - what maintainance costs? My dirty old diesel Passat needs an oil change every 10k miles that takes under ten minutes, requires under £20 in oil and two £5 filters (oil and air). It needs a bonus £5 fuel filter every 20k miles and a £300 (all in costs from a reputable garage, did it earlier this year) timing belt change about every 80k miles. I think all in that lot sets me back a whopping 0.8p/mile.

    By far most expensive aspect of it's running costs after fuel is tyres, and being heavier EVs wear them out faster.

    Yes, if you buy a new merc and get the dealership to service it they'll cheerfully stiff you for £300 a basic service, but that's just them charging a mug tax on £25 of stuff and 15 mins labour to people foolish enough to pay it.
    Depends how old your Passat is, and how far you drive it. I think it's the flywheel on the clutch that fails and needs replacing about every 100k miles for all VW group diesels. One of the fuel lines sprang a leak on our Passat recently, though that was exactly an expensive repair. Or previous car, a Skoda Octavia, needed a fix to the turbo.

    There are loads of things to go wrong on an ICE car.

    But. They can be fixed. Mechanical things can be fixed. If anything goes wrong with the electronics in a car it can be horrendously expensive.
    The battery issue is the biggie, minor prang involving the chassis and the car gets written off because no one can be sure that one of the thousands of 1.5V AA cells that make up the battries isn't damaged and will sooner or later self combust.

    That more than makes up for mechanical wear in an engine. Especially as the batteries degrade even if you don't drive it (especially in extreme hot and cold temperatures)

    Sorry but the technology is immature and crude and I'm not testing someones beta model at my own expense.

    Come back when you have a battery that is stable, will run 400 miles, will recharge in 5 minutes at any Petrol Station and is not able to self combust. Then I might be interested.

    In the interim I might go for a hybrid, which gives the efficiency of the electric drive train with a £1000 battery in the boot that can be changed without difficulty and can be charged from its onboard Petrol generator.

    But so long as the 18 year old low mileage car Ive had from new keeps going without major issue I will stick with it.



    While that's true, I can tell you that those damaged battery packs are sold off and recycled.

    So, the hit to the insurance company is often pretty small.

    (Source: I am CEO of an insurance company, and we get pretty amazing salvage rates on damaged electric cars.)
    US I assume? Dosent seem to be the case in the UK yet.

    Agree though that the problem will eventually go away one way or another. I'm just not going to buy the equivalent of Stephensons Rocket when if I wait two or three decades a Black 5 will be available with maintenance facilities as ubiquitous as Blacksmiths in the Packhorse era.
    Those cells are expensive. They can be easily tested and sold.

    If it doesn't exist in the UK yet, it will.
    Yes, there is an obvious business opportunity for a garage to specialising in repairing EVs.

    Mine is a Kia eniro. Lovely to drive and both the quickest acceleration and cheapest running costs of any car that I have owned. Smooth as silk to drive and beautifully put together.

    After 4 years and 34 000 miles the range on the battery is 280 miles when fully charged, the same as when I bought it. It's a bit less in winter with the lights and heating on, but still 240 miles. It's needed 2 new tires but no other replacement bits at all.

    A brilliant car. The South Koreans know what they are doing.
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 715
    edited July 8

    Still more on EV battery life from the Post article: "Nissan, which released its Leaf EV in 2010, says “almost all” of its original batteries are still powering its cars despite early recalls. And failure rates are dropping. About 1.5 percent of vehicles have had to replace batteries, outside of recalls, since 2011, reports Recurrent. That rate has fallen below 0.5 percent since model year 2016."
    (Links omitted.)

    Battery life was a serious problem with EVs sold in the US, but is no longer.

    It does seem the projected drop in battery capability over the years and milage is much lower than expected. At over 40k on mine and the range is the same as it was when I got it. It's cost me two services and a new set of tyres, and like the other poster, I am on Octopus Intelligent, now 7p a unit off peak.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,124
    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,633
    Noticed an interesting bit of bias in coverage of the French election. The media are reporting that the hung parliament is a recut for chaos. The implication being that if the RN had won there would have been order, which is the idea they hope to promote. Let’s just say that the history of the far right producing order is not great.

    Something the media should watch.
  • WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 715
    edited July 8
    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    Badenoch is the darling of the membership. She will win a Corbyn style landslide if they put her up in the final two.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,301

    Still more on EV battery life from the Post article: "Nissan, which released its Leaf EV in 2010, says “almost all” of its original batteries are still powering its cars despite early recalls. And failure rates are dropping. About 1.5 percent of vehicles have had to replace batteries, outside of recalls, since 2011, reports Recurrent. That rate has fallen below 0.5 percent since model year 2016."
    (Links omitted.)

    Battery life was a serious problem with EVs sold in the US, but is no longer.

    It does seem the projected drop in battery capability over the years and milage is much lower than projected. At over 40k on mine and the range is the same as it was when I got it. It's cost me two services and a new set of tyres, and like the other poster, I am on Octopus Intelligent, now 7p a unit off peak.
    Leafs also have the worst battery life because they (at least the early ones) didn’t do the thermal management that modern EVs do to minimise the damage to the battery during charging.

    But, the batteries have still lasted a long time & even if the range on the early Leafs is now down to a few tens of miles that’s actually enough for a city runabout for many people as a second vehicle, so the cars still have value on the second hand market today.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,883
    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    I have reached my friend’s house in Provence. He’s gone off to talk to the Taliban in Kabul. For reals

    His house is in one of the most staggeringly beautiful French villages I have ever seen

    Oppède Le Vieux

    https://www.theluberon.com/villages/oppede-le-vieux/

    Dates to pre-Roman times (the word Oppède is Celtic-Roman for fort) yet for centuries it was basically abandoned. Then in the Second World War the author Saint Exupery (yes, him) and a bunch of artists all rescued it

    It has a brilliantly grumpy cafe owner

    You can go and irritate Hugh Grant just down the road in Eygalieres
    Stopped off there for an excellent coffee and brandy whilst cycling nearby; jazz band in attendance.

    Mediocre looking street brocante there; spotted a gem. I was busy trying to work out how best I could ship a for sure £5k (retail) antique bookcase and thought I had better check the price first. It was 15 thousand euros!!!!!!
    It's an interesting case of how the demand of a few rich people can turn a sleepy village into a classy well served little town.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297

    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    Badenoch is the darling of the membership. She will win a Corbyn style landslide if they put her up in the final two.
    Which is positive for the left because she comes across frankly as all mouth and no trousers.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    edited July 8
    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    I get a bit George Osborne feel about Jenrick, not in terms of policy of course, but just the way he comes across.

    Can't see him being very popular with voters.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,124
    edited July 8

    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    Badenoch is the darling of the membership. She will win a Corbyn style landslide if they put her up in the final two.
    Disagree.

    Straws in wind in our whatsapp chat suggests Jenrick gets it.

    Members are less likely to have seen Badenoch on Twitter and more likely to have seen Jenrick on Sunday telly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540

    Is it basically possible to divide up the UK into

    Lib/Con
    Lab/Con
    Con/Ref
    SNP/Lab
    PC/Lab
    Lab/Gaza
    Lab/Green
    Unionist/Republican

    ?

    A map divided this way would show the clear divides between regions.

    If you add up the votes of the Gaza independent candidates, they came second overall in Birmingham.
    I’d love to see the maths on that.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFyVLRnJG_7HD1BrN6BQMzU_n2Vl-BjJEIz5H3qq6XA/edit?pli=1&gid=1872558619#gid=1872558619
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    Four days in, and:
    - waiting lists haven't come down
    - small boats are still crossing the Channel
    - not one new house has been built
    - not one new wind farm has emerged
    - interest rates still haven't been cut.

    Labour: all promises and no delivery.

    You left out
    _ failure to appoint Second Church Estates Commissioner

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_Commissioners#Church_Estates_Commissioners
    Lord Falconer is AVAILABLE

    Is it basically possible to divide up the UK into

    Lib/Con
    Lab/Con
    Con/Ref
    SNP/Lab
    PC/Lab
    Lab/Gaza
    Lab/Green
    Unionist/Republican

    ?

    A map divided this way would show the clear divides between regions.

    If you add up the votes of the Gaza independent candidates, they came second overall in Birmingham.
    I’d love to see the maths on that.
    I've just noticed that he's left out Hodge Hill & Solihull North and Sutton Coldfield but this covers 8 of the 10 Birmingham constituencies:

    https://x.com/sam_bidwell/status/1810267592571097582

    🌹 LAB: 38.8%
    🇵🇸 IND/WPB: 19.7%
    🌳 CON: 14.4%
    ➡️ REF: 12.4%
    🌎 GRN: 8.1%
    🔶 LD: 6.3%

    image
    Sadly for you it looks like
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I have reached my friend’s house in Provence. He’s gone off to talk to the Taliban in Kabul. For reals

    His house is in one of the most staggeringly beautiful French villages I have ever seen

    Oppède Le Vieux

    https://www.theluberon.com/villages/oppede-le-vieux/

    Dates to pre-Roman times (the word Oppède is Celtic-Roman for fort) yet for centuries it was basically abandoned. Then in the Second World War the author Saint Exupery (yes, him) and a bunch of artists all rescued it

    It has a brilliantly grumpy cafe owner

    I stayed bloody near there a few years ago.
    Does your friend’s house have its own ruined chapel at all?
    Non

    But his house has appeared on the cover of multiple magazines like "Beautiful France"

    It cost him £500k for a barely two bed house in a half ruined village. With no shops. Just a couple of caffs (in season).

    I thought he was mad until I came here today. it's ravishing and serene and because it's quite inaccessible it lacks the tourist hordes that throng Peter Mayle's Menerbes and the rest, yet you're only ten minutes drive from civilisation

    If i ever bought a holiday home (I gravely doubt I will) it would be something like this. Incredibly simple but incredibly beautiful

    Bet it's bloody cold in winter - tho winter probably only lasts 8 weeks

    Ok so the place I went to - twice I think? - was up the road in Taillades.

    But possibly one of the most amazing places I ever stayed.

    You’re right, it’s a remarkable part of the world.

    But beware of the Mistral. It actually gets bloody chilly for many months, not just 8 weeks.
    Yes I've encountered the Mistral. In summer it sends you mad, with shutters banging and doors slamming, in winter it is satanically cold (especially if you are coming off heroin, which I was - you don't want extra cold during cold turkey)

    Indeed the Mistral would probably put me off buying anything here. If I were to buy in France it would be Languedoc, somewhere in the Pyrenees anyway, or maybe the southern Spanish side

    I will check out Taillades! Merci. I have a week here- working on flints in the morning, exploring and walking in the afternoon. Wine and sunsets at night. C'est parfait
    There’s not much in Taillades, just an old quarry which has been ingeniously turned into a kind of Roman amphitheatre, and a series of very old houses perched on top of archways with straddle the quarry. I don’t even think it has shops.

    But I recall a lot of noom.

    The Luberon is noom-tastic, really. Although perhaps less so at this time of year. Tourists are anti-noom.
    I wouldn't say the Luberon is great for noom, I know it pretty well. Maybe it's too pretty and well known?

    Definitely some tho. Especially in lavender season

    The noomiest place in Provence is possibly Thoronet Abbey


    It is architecturally exquisite in its perfection, like a slightly primitive Romanesque version of Salisbury cathedral. And it has what some reckon the best acoustics of any Christian building in the world. Seriously

    If you are lucky when you go there they will sing something, and it sounds like this, and your spine tingles for hours. Pure Noom! Le Noom Vraiment!


    https://mk-mk.facebook.com/EnsembleLaude/videos/ensemble-laude-spontaneous-singing-at-thoronet/10154947711873196/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    It's pretty slim pickings. At least Cleverly made an effort in the campaign nationally.

    The others were invisible, or like the unfortunate Penny no longer eligible.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,124
    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    I have reached my friend’s house in Provence. He’s gone off to talk to the Taliban in Kabul. For reals

    His house is in one of the most staggeringly beautiful French villages I have ever seen

    Oppède Le Vieux

    https://www.theluberon.com/villages/oppede-le-vieux/

    Dates to pre-Roman times (the word Oppède is Celtic-Roman for fort) yet for centuries it was basically abandoned. Then in the Second World War the author Saint Exupery (yes, him) and a bunch of artists all rescued it

    It has a brilliantly grumpy cafe owner

    You can go and irritate Hugh Grant just down the road in Eygalieres
    Stopped off there for an excellent coffee and brandy whilst cycling nearby; jazz band in attendance.

    Mediocre looking street brocante there; spotted a gem. I was busy trying to work out how best I could ship a for sure £5k (retail) antique bookcase and thought I had better check the price first. It was 15 thousand euros!!!!!!
    It's an interesting case of how the demand of a few rich people can turn a sleepy village into a classy well served little town.
    Well served for cafes and brocantes, at least....
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    MJW said:

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
    I'm not sure you can imprison an AI-generated non-person.
    Anyway, the story appears not to be true - he's real.
    made up by enemies of reform . The fact that many on here seemed to think its true is depressing
    Not entirely 'made up' - but people being silly jumping to conclusions. When looking into some constituency betting I was thinking of going for a Reform candidate and genuinely couldn't find any online presence, nor even any generic quotes to local newspapers. Seems that was perhaps more common - a kind of ultra-paper candidate agreeing to run on the understanding they wouldn't have to do a thing. So appear oddly ghostly. Perhaps signed up to stand as a candidate but really couldn't in this election and were parcelled out nowhere near where they live to fill spots.

    In this case, I think Private Eye found the chap and turned out he'd used an AI image of 'himself' on his website.

    So some people have put the two things together and leapt on the idea that the strongly paper candidates are somehow made up rather than probably a Reform supporter sitting in their living room 200 miles away, but on the ballot to boost the party.
    yes but making up candidates is lllegal and the other is not - people should be careful of believing crap just becasue it is knocking reform
    That's true. Just saying is more one of those conspiracies which latches onto something that genuinely looks odd and then connects the dots very badly.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,124
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    It's pretty slim pickings. At least Cleverly made an effort in the campaign nationally.

    The others were invisible, or like the unfortunate Penny no longer eligible.
    To be fair to Jenrick, he was busy keeping his seat!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,160
    mwadams said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Surely the only reason that the Tories would plump for Jenrick or Braverman is if they intended to either merge with, or form an alliance with, Reform?

    There's no electoral benefit for the Tories to either of those two unless Farage/Reform is part of the package.

    I think it'd make sense for the Conservatives and Reform to take a leaf out of Macron's book and mutually stand candidates down next election. The split would broadly be along second places.
    Reform will get plenty more seconds (They might take Llanelli) and the Conservatives will win back a decent haul of seats.
    The pivot to the centre to my mind is for the election after 2029 - but I think a coupon/stand down makes sense next time up to get numbers back up.
    Given just how many Reform second places there were, wouldn't that be consigning the Conservatives to effective 3rd-party status? They'd never be able to govern on their own again.
    I'm not sure that's true. I'll go through the 2nd places of reform in detail and compare to where the Tories won in 2019 once the little one is in bed
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    I have reached my friend’s house in Provence. He’s gone off to talk to the Taliban in Kabul. For reals

    His house is in one of the most staggeringly beautiful French villages I have ever seen

    Oppède Le Vieux

    https://www.theluberon.com/villages/oppede-le-vieux/

    Dates to pre-Roman times (the word Oppède is Celtic-Roman for fort) yet for centuries it was basically abandoned. Then in the Second World War the author Saint Exupery (yes, him) and a bunch of artists all rescued it

    It has a brilliantly grumpy cafe owner

    You can go and irritate Hugh Grant just down the road in Eygalieres
    Stopped off there for an excellent coffee and brandy whilst cycling nearby; jazz band in attendance.

    Mediocre looking street brocante there; spotted a gem. I was busy trying to work out how best I could ship a for sure £5k (retail) antique bookcase and thought I had better check the price first. It was 15 thousand euros!!!!!!
    It's an interesting case of how the demand of a few rich people can turn a sleepy village into a classy well served little town.
    Well served for cafes and brocantes, at least....
    What more, actually, do you need?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,704
    edited July 8
    Might Tugendhat have more chance of winning the members vote than people think?

    Rishi got 43% vs Truss. Factor in that at least a few members may have voted on racial grounds. Then add that Tugendhat is an ex-army officer - which will go down extremely well with Tory members. And finally he looks / sounds / feels like a leader.

    I think it's entirely possible he could get 7% more than Rishi.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    MJW said:

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
    I'm not sure you can imprison an AI-generated non-person.
    Anyway, the story appears not to be true - he's real.
    made up by enemies of reform . The fact that many on here seemed to think its true is depressing
    Not entirely 'made up' - but people being silly jumping to conclusions. When looking into some constituency betting I was thinking of going for a Reform candidate and genuinely couldn't find any online presence, nor even any generic quotes to local newspapers. Seems that was perhaps more common - a kind of ultra-paper candidate agreeing to run on the understanding they wouldn't have to do a thing. So appear oddly ghostly. Perhaps signed up to stand as a candidate but really couldn't in this election and were parcelled out nowhere near where they live to fill spots.

    In this case, I think Private Eye found the chap and turned out he'd used an AI image of 'himself' on his website.

    So some people have put the two things together and leapt on the idea that the strongly paper candidates are somehow made up rather than probably a Reform supporter sitting in their living room 200 miles away, but on the ballot to boost the party.
    yes but making up candidates is lllegal and the other is not - people should be careful of believing crap just becasue it is knocking reform
    I thought it was amusing if true, and less damaging than some of the undoubtedly true stuff about genuine flesh and blood Reform candidates.

    Which brings me back yet again to Mark's puzzling silence. You would have expected it to be impossible to restrain him from rebutting the slur on his estimable party.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,124
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    It's pretty slim pickings. At least Cleverly made an effort in the campaign nationally.

    The others were invisible, or like the unfortunate Penny no longer eligible.
    I think Jenrick probably hits Starmer harder on crime, immigration and growth of the state.

    All of which are likely to be the weak links of this govt.

    Badenoch would, I expect, make some loud noises in speeches and on twitter. Can't see it cutting through with voters.....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,124

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    I have reached my friend’s house in Provence. He’s gone off to talk to the Taliban in Kabul. For reals

    His house is in one of the most staggeringly beautiful French villages I have ever seen

    Oppède Le Vieux

    https://www.theluberon.com/villages/oppede-le-vieux/

    Dates to pre-Roman times (the word Oppède is Celtic-Roman for fort) yet for centuries it was basically abandoned. Then in the Second World War the author Saint Exupery (yes, him) and a bunch of artists all rescued it

    It has a brilliantly grumpy cafe owner

    You can go and irritate Hugh Grant just down the road in Eygalieres
    Stopped off there for an excellent coffee and brandy whilst cycling nearby; jazz band in attendance.

    Mediocre looking street brocante there; spotted a gem. I was busy trying to work out how best I could ship a for sure £5k (retail) antique bookcase and thought I had better check the price first. It was 15 thousand euros!!!!!!
    It's an interesting case of how the demand of a few rich people can turn a sleepy village into a classy well served little town.
    Well served for cafes and brocantes, at least....
    What more, actually, do you need?
    A bookshop helps, I find...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,124
    MikeL said:

    Might Tugenghat have more chance of winning the members vote than people think?

    Rishi got 43% vs Truss. Factor in that at least a few members may have voted on racial grounds. Then add that Tugendhat is an ex-army officer - which will go down extremely well with Tory members. And finally he looks / feels like a leader.

    I think it's entirely possible he could get 7% more than Rishi.

    I suspect the membership has dwindled rather significantly since that election....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    I have reached my friend’s house in Provence. He’s gone off to talk to the Taliban in Kabul. For reals

    His house is in one of the most staggeringly beautiful French villages I have ever seen

    Oppède Le Vieux

    https://www.theluberon.com/villages/oppede-le-vieux/

    Dates to pre-Roman times (the word Oppède is Celtic-Roman for fort) yet for centuries it was basically abandoned. Then in the Second World War the author Saint Exupery (yes, him) and a bunch of artists all rescued it

    It has a brilliantly grumpy cafe owner

    You can go and irritate Hugh Grant just down the road in Eygalieres
    Stopped off there for an excellent coffee and brandy whilst cycling nearby; jazz band in attendance.

    Mediocre looking street brocante there; spotted a gem. I was busy trying to work out how best I could ship a for sure £5k (retail) antique bookcase and thought I had better check the price first. It was 15 thousand euros!!!!!!
    It's an interesting case of how the demand of a few rich people can turn a sleepy village into a classy well served little town.
    Any other cultural recommendations, for Provence? I have seen quite a lot of this region, so I need some new gems...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,392

    So after the counting in France

    RN 10 million votes - 36%
    NFP - 7.5 million - 25 %
    Macron - 7 million -23%

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-pourquoi-le-rn-a-obtenu-plus-de-voix-mais-moins-de-sieges-que-le-nfp-20240708

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,687
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    Badenoch is the darling of the membership. She will win a Corbyn style landslide if they put her up in the final two.
    Disagree.

    Straws in wind in our whatsapp chat suggests Jenrick gets it.

    Members are less likely to have seen Badenoch on Twitter and more likely to have seen Jenrick on Sunday telly.
    Yikes. I am very red on Jenrick.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    It's pretty slim pickings. At least Cleverly made an effort in the campaign nationally.

    The others were invisible, or like the unfortunate Penny no longer eligible.
    I think Jenrick probably hits Starmer harder on crime, immigration and growth of the state.

    All of which are likely to be the weak links of this govt.

    Badenoch would, I expect, make some loud noises in speeches and on twitter. Can't see it cutting through with voters.....
    A white male probably appeals more to Reform voters too.

    Though worth remembering that many Reform voters knew that their vote would most likely put Starmer in Number 10. They wanted to kick the Tories too.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,704
    Mortimer said:

    MikeL said:

    Might Tugenghat have more chance of winning the members vote than people think?

    Rishi got 43% vs Truss. Factor in that at least a few members may have voted on racial grounds. Then add that Tugendhat is an ex-army officer - which will go down extremely well with Tory members. And finally he looks / feels like a leader.

    I think it's entirely possible he could get 7% more than Rishi.

    I suspect the membership has dwindled rather significantly since that election....
    So what? There's no reason for the composition to have changed much - ie no reason for deaths / resignations to skew more Truss or more Sunak.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited July 8
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Coutinho is too close to Sunak to win the members vote, Braverman and Patel lack support from Tory MPs as the header makes clear. Jenrick and Badenoch have more but probably not enough to make the last 2.

    At the moment Cleverly v Tugendhat is my prediction of the 2 the remaining Tory MPs will put to the members if Cleverly stands, if not then Barclay would take his place. Cleverly or Barclay then winning the members vote

    I'm green if it is any of Barclay, Cleverly, Coutinho, Tugendgat, or Jenrick, as it stands.
    I’ve been laying Johnson, Cameron and Farage at the times when their odds have been reasonably short, so if it’s one of them I am in the ****. I’ve also laid Braverman and Badenoch to slightly in the red. Any of the others, I’m good.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    That Biden letter to congressional democrats. Oh my days, he comes across almost as much a demagogue as Trump does.

    As for Tory leadership, the runners and riders might not realise but it’s a caretaker role. I’d be pretty surprised if the winner is leading the party at the next election.

    Biden is making it morally permissible to vote for Trump. Because Trump is not so insane he might hallucimate an attack from North Korea and start WW3 due to dementia. Trump is just a monumental asshole who will put a few enemies in jail

    This is the scale of the danger that is Demented Joe. THEY CANNOT LET HIM RUN

    The President Trump who ascribed the American victory in the War of Independence to taking over the British airports might easily hallucinate an attack from North Carolina.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 495
    edited July 8
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    It's pretty slim pickings. At least Cleverly made an effort in the campaign nationally.

    The others were invisible, or like the unfortunate Penny no longer eligible.
    I think Jenrick probably hits Starmer harder on crime, immigration and growth of the state.

    All of which are likely to be the weak links of this govt.

    Badenoch would, I expect, make some loud noises in speeches and on twitter. Can't see it cutting through with voters.....
    A white male probably appeals more to Reform voters too.

    Though worth remembering that many Reform voters knew that their vote would most likely put Starmer in Number 10. They wanted to kick the Tories too.
    Not sure how any Conservative can attack Starmer on crime when their defunding of the court system led to massive numbers on remand, prison overcrowding and huge delays in getting cases to trial, effectively decriminalising sex offences.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here comes the traditional Civil Service wishlist again.

    Exhibit 1: Road pricing. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/08/labour-must-consider-pay-per-mile-road-tax/

    We’ll probably have ID cards tomorrow.

    We had an interesting and balanced debate about road pricing earlier. I personally think per mile pricing is wrong, as it punishes the wrong kind of journey. It's the shorter, urban journeys where alternatives exist that you want to make relatively less attractive, while making journeys in rural areas much cheaper.

    A general policy of reducing the fixed costs of motoring while increasing the marginal costs can only be a good thing though.
    Pity that government policy to move everybody to EVs does the exact opposite then.

    Massively increased up front costs to purchase, plus steep increases in annual insurance bills, but then very cheap to run (almost entirely because of a tax arbitrage - diesel cars would be cheaper to run if diesel and electricity were taxed the same) particularly on short journeys where you don't have to recharge away from home.
    Ummm:

    Not true, even in the UK.

    Maintenance costs are dramatically lower for electric cars because they are mechanically much simpler.

    Now, on fuel alone you are probably correct (at least in the UK)... but I wouldn't like to bet on that continuing. Electricity prices are going to fall quite a long way from here.
    Err - what maintainance costs? My dirty old diesel Passat needs an oil change every 10k miles that takes under ten minutes, requires under £20 in oil and two £5 filters (oil and air). It needs a bonus £5 fuel filter every 20k miles and a £300 (all in costs from a reputable garage, did it earlier this year) timing belt change about every 80k miles. I think all in that lot sets me back a whopping 0.8p/mile.

    By far most expensive aspect of it's running costs after fuel is tyres, and being heavier EVs wear them out faster.

    Yes, if you buy a new merc and get the dealership to service it they'll cheerfully stiff you for £300 a basic service, but that's just them charging a mug tax on £25 of stuff and 15 mins labour to people foolish enough to pay it.
    Depends how old your Passat is, and how far you drive it. I think it's the flywheel on the clutch that fails and needs replacing about every 100k miles for all VW group diesels. One of the fuel lines sprang a leak on our Passat recently, though that was exactly an expensive repair. Or previous car, a Skoda Octavia, needed a fix to the turbo.

    There are loads of things to go wrong on an ICE car.

    But. They can be fixed. Mechanical things can be fixed. If anything goes wrong with the electronics in a car it can be horrendously expensive.
    The battery issue is the biggie, minor prang involving the chassis and the car gets written off because no one can be sure that one of the thousands of 1.5V AA cells that make up the battries isn't damaged and will sooner or later self combust.

    That more than makes up for mechanical wear in an engine. Especially as the batteries degrade even if you don't drive it (especially in extreme hot and cold temperatures)

    Sorry but the technology is immature and crude and I'm not testing someones beta model at my own expense.

    Come back when you have a battery that is stable, will run 400 miles, will recharge in 5 minutes at any Petrol Station and is not able to self combust. Then I might be interested.

    In the interim I might go for a hybrid, which gives the efficiency of the electric drive train with a £1000 battery in the boot that can be changed without difficulty and can be charged from its onboard Petrol generator.

    But so long as the 18 year old low mileage car Ive had from new keeps going without major issue I will stick with it.



    While that's true, I can tell you that those damaged battery packs are sold off and recycled.

    So, the hit to the insurance company is often pretty small.

    (Source: I am CEO of an insurance company, and we get pretty amazing salvage rates on damaged electric cars.)
    US I assume? Dosent seem to be the case in the UK yet.

    Agree though that the problem will eventually go away one way or another. I'm just not going to buy the equivalent of Stephensons Rocket when if I wait two or three decades a Black 5 will be available with maintenance facilities as ubiquitous as Blacksmiths in the Packhorse era.
    Those cells are expensive. They can be easily tested and sold.

    If it doesn't exist in the UK yet, it will.
    It not existing in the UK appears to be an issue on two fronts:

    "This sentiment was echoed by Chris Payne, head of engineering at motor insurer LV, who said that “only a few qualified technicians in the UK are able to remove a battery, let alone repair it”."

    https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/359993/electric-car-write-offs-could-be-more-likely-due-high-cost-battery-repairs



    "It’s reported that scrap companies are being forced to remove the damaged parts from the written-off vehicles and store them in containers because there are no battery recycling facilities in the UK."

    https://www.driving.org/electric-cars-more-likely-to-be-written-off-due-to-battery-costs/
    I think there's some confusion between battery cells, and battery packs. A pack is a (large!) collection of cells. Working on the pack is pretty easy, you simply remove and test the individual cells, and the companies that do it in the US do it with relatively unskilled labour.

    On the other hand, repairing of damaged cells is clearly outside the ability of all but the most specialized of shops.

    In Arizona, where my business operates, there are three different firms that will take battery packs, remove and resell the undamaged cells. It is only a matter of time before the UK has similar.

    Regarding the "written off" element, I think that's a little bit of red herring. When an insurance company announces that a vehicle is written off, it doesn't mean it's value is zero, it is merely a recognition that there are greater economic returns from putting the vehicle into salvage, than in repairing it. And that can happen for a bunch of reasons. For example, I've seen quotes on repairing a vehicle as taking 28-32 weeks! (*Cough* Porsche Taycan parts from Germany *cough*.) In which case I - as the insurance company - is paying for more than half a year's worth of rental car reimbursement to the client. It's cheaper for me to payout the vehicle cost and sell off the damaged Taycan, than to wait a ridiculous period of time before the vehicle is repaired.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,196


    So after the counting in France

    RN 10 million votes - 36%
    NFP - 7.5 million - 25 %
    Macron - 7 million -23%

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-pourquoi-le-rn-a-obtenu-plus-de-voix-mais-moins-de-sieges-que-le-nfp-20240708

    Is that the record percentage for the National Ramblers in an election?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,392
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    I have reached my friend’s house in Provence. He’s gone off to talk to the Taliban in Kabul. For reals

    His house is in one of the most staggeringly beautiful French villages I have ever seen

    Oppède Le Vieux

    https://www.theluberon.com/villages/oppede-le-vieux/

    Dates to pre-Roman times (the word Oppède is Celtic-Roman for fort) yet for centuries it was basically abandoned. Then in the Second World War the author Saint Exupery (yes, him) and a bunch of artists all rescued it

    It has a brilliantly grumpy cafe owner

    You can go and irritate Hugh Grant just down the road in Eygalieres
    Stopped off there for an excellent coffee and brandy whilst cycling nearby; jazz band in attendance.

    Mediocre looking street brocante there; spotted a gem. I was busy trying to work out how best I could ship a for sure £5k (retail) antique bookcase and thought I had better check the price first. It was 15 thousand euros!!!!!!
    It's an interesting case of how the demand of a few rich people can turn a sleepy village into a classy well served little town.
    Any other cultural recommendations, for Provence? I have seen quite a lot of this region, so I need some new gems...
    St Paul de Vence, - hill top town full of artists
    Les Baux en Provence - sort of mont st michel and home of Bauxite
    Saintes Marie de la Mer - small port where Mary landed after she left Jerusalem ( allegedly ) and some bull fighting thrown in
    Aigues Mortes - medieval walled town by sea
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110


    So after the counting in France

    RN 10 million votes - 36%
    NFP - 7.5 million - 25 %
    Macron - 7 million -23%

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-pourquoi-le-rn-a-obtenu-plus-de-voix-mais-moins-de-sieges-que-le-nfp-20240708

    That's tactical voting for you.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,392
    rcs1000 said:


    So after the counting in France

    RN 10 million votes - 36%
    NFP - 7.5 million - 25 %
    Macron - 7 million -23%

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-pourquoi-le-rn-a-obtenu-plus-de-voix-mais-moins-de-sieges-que-le-nfp-20240708

    That's tactical voting for you.
    yup and FPTP
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jenrick is my tip for leader. Just pipping Badenoch in a campaign with members.

    Sufficiently established in parliamentary party. Called the Sunak horror show correctly.

    Coutinho gets nowhere as far as I can see.

    Don't see Cleverly running, wonder if Barclay might not either.

    Next but one leader is probably more likely to become PM, realistically.

    Badenoch is the darling of the membership. She will win a Corbyn style landslide if they put her up in the final two.
    Disagree.

    Straws in wind in our whatsapp chat suggests Jenrick gets it.

    Members are less likely to have seen Badenoch on Twitter and more likely to have seen Jenrick on Sunday telly.
    Yikes. I am very red on Jenrick.
    Me too.

    I always do badly on Con leadership contests (though made a profit on Truss) mostly because I cannot believe that even Conservative members are that daft.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Phil said:

    Still more on EV battery life from the Post article: "Nissan, which released its Leaf EV in 2010, says “almost all” of its original batteries are still powering its cars despite early recalls. And failure rates are dropping. About 1.5 percent of vehicles have had to replace batteries, outside of recalls, since 2011, reports Recurrent. That rate has fallen below 0.5 percent since model year 2016."
    (Links omitted.)

    Battery life was a serious problem with EVs sold in the US, but is no longer.

    It does seem the projected drop in battery capability over the years and milage is much lower than projected. At over 40k on mine and the range is the same as it was when I got it. It's cost me two services and a new set of tyres, and like the other poster, I am on Octopus Intelligent, now 7p a unit off peak.
    Leafs also have the worst battery life because they (at least the early ones) didn’t do the thermal management that modern EVs do to minimise the damage to the battery during charging.

    But, the batteries have still lasted a long time & even if the range on the early Leafs is now down to a few tens of miles that’s actually enough for a city runabout for many people as a second vehicle, so the cars still have value on the second hand market today.
    I am an investor in a business that repurposes old Nissan Leaf batteries for home battery backup systems. Because space and weight don't matter than much if it's sitting in the garage, and because home battery backup has relatively few charge-discharge cycles, you can buy old EV batteries efficiently.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    I do hope someone is going to investigate this properly. If true, this is a crime, worthy of a prison sentence.
    I'm not sure you can imprison an AI-generated non-person.
    Anyway, the story appears not to be true - he's real.
    made up by enemies of reform . The fact that many on here seemed to think its true is depressing
    Not entirely 'made up' - but people being silly jumping to conclusions. When looking into some constituency betting I was thinking of going for a Reform candidate and genuinely couldn't find any online presence, nor even any generic quotes to local newspapers. Seems that was perhaps more common - a kind of ultra-paper candidate agreeing to run on the understanding they wouldn't have to do a thing. So appear oddly ghostly. Perhaps signed up to stand as a candidate but really couldn't in this election and were parcelled out nowhere near where they live to fill spots.

    In this case, I think Private Eye found the chap and turned out he'd used an AI image of 'himself' on his website.

    So some people have put the two things together and leapt on the idea that the strongly paper candidates are somehow made up rather than probably a Reform supporter sitting in their living room 200 miles away, but on the ballot to boost the party.
    yes but making up candidates is lllegal and the other is not - people should be careful of believing crap just becasue it is knocking reform
    That's true. Just saying is more one of those conspiracies which latches onto something that genuinely looks odd and then connects the dots very badly.
    I don't see "very badly", it wouldn't be the worst idea for a party in a crazy hurry, desperately short of candidates and utterly bereft of candidates who hadn't said online that Hitler was a bit middle of the road. The AI thing is bloody odd. Possibly what has happened is Reform have said to people: not only are you in no danger of being elected but we will stand you in a constituency 300 miles away and use AI photos of you so noone will ever know it was you. And the candidates reckon their side of the deal was fulfilled by July 4 and they are not going to blow their guaranteed anonymity by standing up now.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    Is it basically possible to divide up the UK into

    Lib/Con
    Lab/Con
    Con/Ref
    SNP/Lab
    PC/Lab
    Lab/Gaza
    Lab/Green
    Unionist/Republican

    ?

    A map divided this way would show the clear divides between regions.

    Yes. and maps are useful. As to useless maps, you can, following this election, drive from the south coast to Berwick (via Wales) in non-Tory held territory. I think this will be a first. The blue wall starts at Scotland.

    When the Tories are doing well, you can drive in blue territory from the south coast to Berwick and beyond into rural Scotland. After this election you can only get to Wiltshire. The strange death of Tory England....
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,707
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here comes the traditional Civil Service wishlist again.

    Exhibit 1: Road pricing. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/08/labour-must-consider-pay-per-mile-road-tax/

    We’ll probably have ID cards tomorrow.

    We had an interesting and balanced debate about road pricing earlier. I personally think per mile pricing is wrong, as it punishes the wrong kind of journey. It's the shorter, urban journeys where alternatives exist that you want to make relatively less attractive, while making journeys in rural areas much cheaper.

    A general policy of reducing the fixed costs of motoring while increasing the marginal costs can only be a good thing though.
    Pity that government policy to move everybody to EVs does the exact opposite then.

    Massively increased up front costs to purchase, plus steep increases in annual insurance bills, but then very cheap to run (almost entirely because of a tax arbitrage - diesel cars would be cheaper to run if diesel and electricity were taxed the same) particularly on short journeys where you don't have to recharge away from home.
    Ummm:

    Not true, even in the UK.

    Maintenance costs are dramatically lower for electric cars because they are mechanically much simpler.

    Now, on fuel alone you are probably correct (at least in the UK)... but I wouldn't like to bet on that continuing. Electricity prices are going to fall quite a long way from here.
    Err - what maintainance costs? My dirty old diesel Passat needs an oil change every 10k miles that takes under ten minutes, requires under £20 in oil and two £5 filters (oil and air). It needs a bonus £5 fuel filter every 20k miles and a £300 (all in costs from a reputable garage, did it earlier this year) timing belt change about every 80k miles. I think all in that lot sets me back a whopping 0.8p/mile.

    By far most expensive aspect of it's running costs after fuel is tyres, and being heavier EVs wear them out faster.

    Yes, if you buy a new merc and get the dealership to service it they'll cheerfully stiff you for £300 a basic service, but that's just them charging a mug tax on £25 of stuff and 15 mins labour to people foolish enough to pay it.
    Depends how old your Passat is, and how far you drive it. I think it's the flywheel on the clutch that fails and needs replacing about every 100k miles for all VW group diesels. One of the fuel lines sprang a leak on our Passat recently, though that was exactly an expensive repair. Or previous car, a Skoda Octavia, needed a fix to the turbo.

    There are loads of things to go wrong on an ICE car.

    But. They can be fixed. Mechanical things can be fixed. If anything goes wrong with the electronics in a car it can be horrendously expensive.
    The battery issue is the biggie, minor prang involving the chassis and the car gets written off because no one can be sure that one of the thousands of 1.5V AA cells that make up the battries isn't damaged and will sooner or later self combust.

    That more than makes up for mechanical wear in an engine. Especially as the batteries degrade even if you don't drive it (especially in extreme hot and cold temperatures)

    Sorry but the technology is immature and crude and I'm not testing someones beta model at my own expense.

    Come back when you have a battery that is stable, will run 400 miles, will recharge in 5 minutes at any Petrol Station and is not able to self combust. Then I might be interested.

    In the interim I might go for a hybrid, which gives the efficiency of the electric drive train with a £1000 battery in the boot that can be changed without difficulty and can be charged from its onboard Petrol generator.

    But so long as the 18 year old low mileage car Ive had from new keeps going without major issue I will stick with it.



    While that's true, I can tell you that those damaged battery packs are sold off and recycled.

    So, the hit to the insurance company is often pretty small.

    (Source: I am CEO of an insurance company, and we get pretty amazing salvage rates on damaged electric cars.)
    US I assume? Dosent seem to be the case in the UK yet.

    Agree though that the problem will eventually go away one way or another. I'm just not going to buy the equivalent of Stephensons Rocket when if I wait two or three decades a Black 5 will be available with maintenance facilities as ubiquitous as Blacksmiths in the Packhorse era.
    Those cells are expensive. They can be easily tested and sold.

    If it doesn't exist in the UK yet, it will.
    It not existing in the UK appears to be an issue on two fronts:

    "This sentiment was echoed by Chris Payne, head of engineering at motor insurer LV, who said that “only a few qualified technicians in the UK are able to remove a battery, let alone repair it”."

    https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/359993/electric-car-write-offs-could-be-more-likely-due-high-cost-battery-repairs



    "It’s reported that scrap companies are being forced to remove the damaged parts from the written-off vehicles and store them in containers because there are no battery recycling facilities in the UK."

    https://www.driving.org/electric-cars-more-likely-to-be-written-off-due-to-battery-costs/
    I think there's some confusion between battery cells, and battery packs. A pack is a (large!) collection of cells. Working on the pack is pretty easy, you simply remove and test the individual cells, and the companies that do it in the US do it with relatively unskilled labour.

    On the other hand, repairing of damaged cells is clearly outside the ability of all but the most specialized of shops.

    In Arizona, where my business operates, there are three different firms that will take battery packs, remove and resell the undamaged cells. It is only a matter of time before the UK has similar.

    Regarding the "written off" element, I think that's a little bit of red herring. When an insurance company announces that a vehicle is written off, it doesn't mean it's value is zero, it is merely a recognition that there are greater economic returns from putting the vehicle into salvage, than in repairing it. And that can happen for a bunch of reasons. For example, I've seen quotes on repairing a vehicle as taking 28-32 weeks! (*Cough* Porsche Taycan parts from Germany *cough*.) In which case I - as the insurance company - is paying for more than half a year's worth of rental car reimbursement to the client. It's cheaper for me to payout the vehicle cost and sell off the damaged Taycan, than to wait a ridiculous period of time before the vehicle is repaired.
    "In which case I … is paying for more than half a year's worth"
    Ali G is that you?
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    AlsoLei said:

    148grss said:

    The interesting bit of the LOTO gig for the Tory winner will be having to oppose on substance when for so long the focus has been on performative dividing lines. Asking the PM what a woman is during PMQs is probably not going to cut the mustard.

    Neither will be shouting "he didn't answer my question" once Starmer probably starts answering questions. If I were the Tory Party I'd have Sunak stay on for a while as caretaker, not make any waves, and only attack Labour for anything massively egregious to Tory principles. Because the answer can, and likely will be, "you guys lost, fucked up the country even worse than we thought, and we're doing the long hard work of putting it back together again. Rome wasn't built in a day, and fixing Britain after 14 years of Tory rule will take longer than a week / month / few months"
    My advice to him would be to restrict his attacks to matters of delivery, not policy. Start banging the "why haven't you started work on this since you agree that it's so important?" drum as early as possible.

    Yesterday's announcement that they're going to place an ad to recruit a leader of the new Border Security Command is an obvious example. Starmer has been talking about this since mid-May as part of his 'First Steps for Change' campaign, so why are they faffing around with job ads? Why haven't they already got someone ready to go?

    The other thing he needs to do is to get all of the probable contenders into the top shad cab jobs - including those who've previously been sacked like Braverman and Jenrick. That's going to cause some controversy, but they won't actually be running anything or even tasked with developing policy, it's purely to give them a chance to showcase their parliamentary skills.
    Because they worship at the technocratic altar of correct process and procedure at all times and in all regards.

    It will be their undoing
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here comes the traditional Civil Service wishlist again.

    Exhibit 1: Road pricing. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/08/labour-must-consider-pay-per-mile-road-tax/

    We’ll probably have ID cards tomorrow.

    We had an interesting and balanced debate about road pricing earlier. I personally think per mile pricing is wrong, as it punishes the wrong kind of journey. It's the shorter, urban journeys where alternatives exist that you want to make relatively less attractive, while making journeys in rural areas much cheaper.

    A general policy of reducing the fixed costs of motoring while increasing the marginal costs can only be a good thing though.
    Pity that government policy to move everybody to EVs does the exact opposite then.

    Massively increased up front costs to purchase, plus steep increases in annual insurance bills, but then very cheap to run (almost entirely because of a tax arbitrage - diesel cars would be cheaper to run if diesel and electricity were taxed the same) particularly on short journeys where you don't have to recharge away from home.
    Ummm:

    Not true, even in the UK.

    Maintenance costs are dramatically lower for electric cars because they are mechanically much simpler.

    Now, on fuel alone you are probably correct (at least in the UK)... but I wouldn't like to bet on that continuing. Electricity prices are going to fall quite a long way from here.
    Err - what maintainance costs? My dirty old diesel Passat needs an oil change every 10k miles that takes under ten minutes, requires under £20 in oil and two £5 filters (oil and air). It needs a bonus £5 fuel filter every 20k miles and a £300 (all in costs from a reputable garage, did it earlier this year) timing belt change about every 80k miles. I think all in that lot sets me back a whopping 0.8p/mile.

    By far most expensive aspect of it's running costs after fuel is tyres, and being heavier EVs wear them out faster.

    Yes, if you buy a new merc and get the dealership to service it they'll cheerfully stiff you for £300 a basic service, but that's just them charging a mug tax on £25 of stuff and 15 mins labour to people foolish enough to pay it.
    Depends how old your Passat is, and how far you drive it. I think it's the flywheel on the clutch that fails and needs replacing about every 100k miles for all VW group diesels. One of the fuel lines sprang a leak on our Passat recently, though that was exactly an expensive repair. Or previous car, a Skoda Octavia, needed a fix to the turbo.

    There are loads of things to go wrong on an ICE car.

    But. They can be fixed. Mechanical things can be fixed. If anything goes wrong with the electronics in a car it can be horrendously expensive.
    The battery issue is the biggie, minor prang involving the chassis and the car gets written off because no one can be sure that one of the thousands of 1.5V AA cells that make up the battries isn't damaged and will sooner or later self combust.

    That more than makes up for mechanical wear in an engine. Especially as the batteries degrade even if you don't drive it (especially in extreme hot and cold temperatures)

    Sorry but the technology is immature and crude and I'm not testing someones beta model at my own expense.

    Come back when you have a battery that is stable, will run 400 miles, will recharge in 5 minutes at any Petrol Station and is not able to self combust. Then I might be interested.

    In the interim I might go for a hybrid, which gives the efficiency of the electric drive train with a £1000 battery in the boot that can be changed without difficulty and can be charged from its onboard Petrol generator.

    But so long as the 18 year old low mileage car Ive had from new keeps going without major issue I will stick with it.



    While that's true, I can tell you that those damaged battery packs are sold off and recycled.

    So, the hit to the insurance company is often pretty small.

    (Source: I am CEO of an insurance company, and we get pretty amazing salvage rates on damaged electric cars.)
    US I assume? Dosent seem to be the case in the UK yet.

    Agree though that the problem will eventually go away one way or another. I'm just not going to buy the equivalent of Stephensons Rocket when if I wait two or three decades a Black 5 will be available with maintenance facilities as ubiquitous as Blacksmiths in the Packhorse era.
    Those cells are expensive. They can be easily tested and sold.

    If it doesn't exist in the UK yet, it will.
    It not existing in the UK appears to be an issue on two fronts:

    "This sentiment was echoed by Chris Payne, head of engineering at motor insurer LV, who said that “only a few qualified technicians in the UK are able to remove a battery, let alone repair it”."

    https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/359993/electric-car-write-offs-could-be-more-likely-due-high-cost-battery-repairs



    "It’s reported that scrap companies are being forced to remove the damaged parts from the written-off vehicles and store them in containers because there are no battery recycling facilities in the UK."

    https://www.driving.org/electric-cars-more-likely-to-be-written-off-due-to-battery-costs/
    I think there's some confusion between battery cells, and battery packs. A pack is a (large!) collection of cells. Working on the pack is pretty easy, you simply remove and test the individual cells, and the companies that do it in the US do it with relatively unskilled labour.

    On the other hand, repairing of damaged cells is clearly outside the ability of all but the most specialized of shops.

    In Arizona, where my business operates, there are three different firms that will take battery packs, remove and resell the undamaged cells. It is only a matter of time before the UK has similar.

    Regarding the "written off" element, I think that's a little bit of red herring. When an insurance company announces that a vehicle is written off, it doesn't mean it's value is zero, it is merely a recognition that there are greater economic returns from putting the vehicle into salvage, than in repairing it. And that can happen for a bunch of reasons. For example, I've seen quotes on repairing a vehicle as taking 28-32 weeks! (*Cough* Porsche Taycan parts from Germany *cough*.) In which case I - as the insurance company - is paying for more than half a year's worth of rental car reimbursement to the client. It's cheaper for me to payout the vehicle cost and sell off the damaged Taycan, than to wait a ridiculous period of time before the vehicle is repaired.
    "In which case I … is paying for more than half a year's worth"
    Ali G is that you?
    Staines massive in da house
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here comes the traditional Civil Service wishlist again.

    Exhibit 1: Road pricing. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/08/labour-must-consider-pay-per-mile-road-tax/

    We’ll probably have ID cards tomorrow.

    We had an interesting and balanced debate about road pricing earlier. I personally think per mile pricing is wrong, as it punishes the wrong kind of journey. It's the shorter, urban journeys where alternatives exist that you want to make relatively less attractive, while making journeys in rural areas much cheaper.

    A general policy of reducing the fixed costs of motoring while increasing the marginal costs can only be a good thing though.
    Pity that government policy to move everybody to EVs does the exact opposite then.

    Massively increased up front costs to purchase, plus steep increases in annual insurance bills, but then very cheap to run (almost entirely because of a tax arbitrage - diesel cars would be cheaper to run if diesel and electricity were taxed the same) particularly on short journeys where you don't have to recharge away from home.
    Ummm:

    Not true, even in the UK.

    Maintenance costs are dramatically lower for electric cars because they are mechanically much simpler.

    Now, on fuel alone you are probably correct (at least in the UK)... but I wouldn't like to bet on that continuing. Electricity prices are going to fall quite a long way from here.
    Err - what maintainance costs? My dirty old diesel Passat needs an oil change every 10k miles that takes under ten minutes, requires under £20 in oil and two £5 filters (oil and air). It needs a bonus £5 fuel filter every 20k miles and a £300 (all in costs from a reputable garage, did it earlier this year) timing belt change about every 80k miles. I think all in that lot sets me back a whopping 0.8p/mile.

    By far most expensive aspect of it's running costs after fuel is tyres, and being heavier EVs wear them out faster.

    Yes, if you buy a new merc and get the dealership to service it they'll cheerfully stiff you for £300 a basic service, but that's just them charging a mug tax on £25 of stuff and 15 mins labour to people foolish enough to pay it.
    Depends how old your Passat is, and how far you drive it. I think it's the flywheel on the clutch that fails and needs replacing about every 100k miles for all VW group diesels. One of the fuel lines sprang a leak on our Passat recently, though that was exactly an expensive repair. Or previous car, a Skoda Octavia, needed a fix to the turbo.

    There are loads of things to go wrong on an ICE car.

    But. They can be fixed. Mechanical things can be fixed. If anything goes wrong with the electronics in a car it can be horrendously expensive.
    The battery issue is the biggie, minor prang involving the chassis and the car gets written off because no one can be sure that one of the thousands of 1.5V AA cells that make up the battries isn't damaged and will sooner or later self combust.

    That more than makes up for mechanical wear in an engine. Especially as the batteries degrade even if you don't drive it (especially in extreme hot and cold temperatures)

    Sorry but the technology is immature and crude and I'm not testing someones beta model at my own expense.

    Come back when you have a battery that is stable, will run 400 miles, will recharge in 5 minutes at any Petrol Station and is not able to self combust. Then I might be interested.

    In the interim I might go for a hybrid, which gives the efficiency of the electric drive train with a £1000 battery in the boot that can be changed without difficulty and can be charged from its onboard Petrol generator.

    But so long as the 18 year old low mileage car Ive had from new keeps going without major issue I will stick with it.



    While that's true, I can tell you that those damaged battery packs are sold off and recycled.

    So, the hit to the insurance company is often pretty small.

    (Source: I am CEO of an insurance company, and we get pretty amazing salvage rates on damaged electric cars.)
    US I assume? Dosent seem to be the case in the UK yet.

    Agree though that the problem will eventually go away one way or another. I'm just not going to buy the equivalent of Stephensons Rocket when if I wait two or three decades a Black 5 will be available with maintenance facilities as ubiquitous as Blacksmiths in the Packhorse era.
    Those cells are expensive. They can be easily tested and sold.

    If it doesn't exist in the UK yet, it will.
    It not existing in the UK appears to be an issue on two fronts:

    "This sentiment was echoed by Chris Payne, head of engineering at motor insurer LV, who said that “only a few qualified technicians in the UK are able to remove a battery, let alone repair it”."

    https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/359993/electric-car-write-offs-could-be-more-likely-due-high-cost-battery-repairs



    "It’s reported that scrap companies are being forced to remove the damaged parts from the written-off vehicles and store them in containers because there are no battery recycling facilities in the UK."

    https://www.driving.org/electric-cars-more-likely-to-be-written-off-due-to-battery-costs/
    I think there's some confusion between battery cells, and battery packs. A pack is a (large!) collection of cells. Working on the pack is pretty easy, you simply remove and test the individual cells, and the companies that do it in the US do it with relatively unskilled labour.

    On the other hand, repairing of damaged cells is clearly outside the ability of all but the most specialized of shops.

    In Arizona, where my business operates, there are three different firms that will take battery packs, remove and resell the undamaged cells. It is only a matter of time before the UK has similar.

    Regarding the "written off" element, I think that's a little bit of red herring. When an insurance company announces that a vehicle is written off, it doesn't mean it's value is zero, it is merely a recognition that there are greater economic returns from putting the vehicle into salvage, than in repairing it. And that can happen for a bunch of reasons. For example, I've seen quotes on repairing a vehicle as taking 28-32 weeks! (*Cough* Porsche Taycan parts from Germany *cough*.) In which case I - as the insurance company - is paying for more than half a year's worth of rental car reimbursement to the client. It's cheaper for me to payout the vehicle cost and sell off the damaged Taycan, than to wait a ridiculous period of time before the vehicle is repaired.
    I don't know if it is the same in the States but here there is a major problem of cars being written off for trivial damage:

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/article/2024/may/11/cars-charges-insurance-premiums-cost-of-claims
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    This is what is known as a conspiracy theory.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited July 8
    Andy_JS said:

    Tactical voting worked in favour of Lab/LDs in the vast majority of seats. One notable exception was East Grinstead:

    Con 38.3% (-20.2%)
    LD 21.5% (-1.5%)
    Lab 20.7% (+7.1%)
    Grn 10.5% (+5.6%)
    Ind 4.9%
    ED 4.0%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001212

    It’s a funny place, east grinstead, as anyone who has been there will surely know.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,707
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tactical voting worked in favour of Lab/LDs in the vast majority of seats. One notable exception was East Grinstead:

    Con 38.3% (-20.2%)
    LD 21.5% (-1.5%)
    Lab 20.7% (+7.1%)
    Grn 10.5% (+5.6%)
    Ind 4.9%
    ED 4.0%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001212

    It’s a funny place, east grinstead, as anyone who has been there will surely know.
    Plastic Sir Jerry inn'it

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,707
    geoffw said:

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Tactical voting worked in favour of Lab/LDs in the vast majority of seats. One notable exception was East Grinstead:

    Con 38.3% (-20.2%)
    LD 21.5% (-1.5%)
    Lab 20.7% (+7.1%)
    Grn 10.5% (+5.6%)
    Ind 4.9%
    ED 4.0%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001212

    It’s a funny place, east grinstead, as anyone who has been there will surely know.
    Plastic Sir Jerry inn'it

    Acshally Archie Mac in too

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited July 8
    Chris Arnade

    https://unherd.com/2024/07/can-european-cafe-culture-cure-america/

    "Of all the smallish towns I have stayed in along France’s Rhône Valley, Tournon-sur-Rhône is my least favourite. It’s a loud town with an old expressway, Route Nationale 86, running through it.

    Yet even in Tournon, on a boring Wednesday afternoon, there was an active social scene, a communal sense of needing to be, if not directly with other people, then at least near them. At one local café, friends, colleagues, couples, families came and went. Those who arrived alone, mostly older regulars, came to sit, watch the world and chat with waiters and fellow patrons. They were alone in name only. Each had their place, as I later found out when I realised I’d taken the corner seat of one regular. I offered to switch, but they declined with a smile, muttering something I hoped translated as “I may be set in my ways, but I’m not THAT set”.

    I stayed at that café for three hours, and though I was alone I never felt lonely. I didn’t order much, but I never felt rushed. The French understand the value of sitting for a long time around others, while seemingly doing nothing."
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252

    I see the Telegraph is getting excited about Labour Tax Rises. Expect that to be a nothingburger.

    More of a problem for Labour is how to get anything concrete done before the elections. All very well to simplify planning rules but get rid of things like nutrient neutrality you face years of climate act underpinned in appeals in the court. Don't get rid of nutrient neutrality don't get anything built.

    etc etc.

    It is somewhat ironic that Labour's ability to get houses built will be constrained by all the nimby legislation they have so eagerly supported.

    Quite. It dosen't seem to have occured to them that their most sacred Acts (Equality, ECHR and Climate Change) are going to be the things that impale them and prevent them getting much done in one term.

    By which time the problems will have got far worse and a lot of Labour voters will be listening to Farage saying "I told you so".

    Edit. May upgrading Climate Change to Net Zero was under the Tories but this is also uber sacred to them.
    Perhaps you're underestimating Starmer's ruthlessness. He could just do away with any legislation that gets in the way.

    Only a Labour government can deliver Liz Truss's supply-side agenda.
    Seeing him repeal any of those acts would be very entertaining and probably see most of his MPs defect to Libdems (Galloway for the Left wing ones).
    He could do it by stealth with a Great British Growth Bill to give ministers the power to override any conflicting legislation.
    It would have to explicitly repeal the relevant bits of the equality, climate change, human rights etc etc acts due to Thoburn v Sunderland City Council.


    "Lord Justice Laws suggested there was a hierarchy of "constitutional statutes" that Parliament could only expressly repeal, and so were immune from implied repeal"

    tohttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thoburn_v_Sunderland_City_Council
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    I'm happy with the election result even though I didn't vote Labour on this occasion.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    AlsoLei said:

    148grss said:

    The interesting bit of the LOTO gig for the Tory winner will be having to oppose on substance when for so long the focus has been on performative dividing lines. Asking the PM what a woman is during PMQs is probably not going to cut the mustard.

    Neither will be shouting "he didn't answer my question" once Starmer probably starts answering questions. If I were the Tory Party I'd have Sunak stay on for a while as caretaker, not make any waves, and only attack Labour for anything massively egregious to Tory principles. Because the answer can, and likely will be, "you guys lost, fucked up the country even worse than we thought, and we're doing the long hard work of putting it back together again. Rome wasn't built in a day, and fixing Britain after 14 years of Tory rule will take longer than a week / month / few months"
    My advice to him would be to restrict his attacks to matters of delivery, not policy. Start banging the "why haven't you started work on this since you agree that it's so important?" drum as early as possible.

    Yesterday's announcement that they're going to place an ad to recruit a leader of the new Border Security Command is an obvious example. Starmer has been talking about this since mid-May as part of his 'First Steps for Change' campaign, so why are they faffing around with job ads? Why haven't they already got someone ready to go?

    The other thing he needs to do is to get all of the probable contenders into the top shad cab jobs - including those who've previously been sacked like Braverman and Jenrick. That's going to cause some controversy, but they won't actually be running anything or even tasked with developing policy, it's purely to give them a chance to showcase their parliamentary skills.
    Because they worship at the technocratic altar of correct process and procedure at all times and in all regards.

    It will be their undoing
    They are virtually guaranteed to be complying with legal obligations regarding due process in public hires, there to prevent corruption and cronyism in government. After the last few years I am in favour of this sort of legislation but the point about laws is you obey them, like it or not. Otherwise you have a standards commissioner on the case and kimonofoxbatman judicial reviewing yo sorry ass.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,707
    Andy_JS said:

    Chris Arnade

    https://unherd.com/2024/07/can-european-cafe-culture-cure-america/

    "Of all the smallish towns I have stayed in along France’s Rhône Valley, Tournon-sur-Rhône is my least favourite. It’s a loud town with an old expressway, Route Nationale 86, running through it.

    Yet even in Tournon, on a boring Wednesday afternoon, there was an active social scene, a communal sense of needing to be, if not directly with other people, then at least near them. At one local café, friends, colleagues, couples, families came and went. Those who arrived alone, mostly older regulars, came to sit, watch the world and chat with waiters and fellow patrons. They were alone in name only. Each had their place, as I later found out when I realised I’d taken the corner seat of one regular. I offered to switch, but they declined with a smile, muttering something I hoped translated as “I may be set in my ways, but I’m not THAT set”.

    I stayed at that café for three hours, and though I was alone I never felt lonely. I didn’t order much, but I never felt rushed. The French understand the value of sitting for a long time around others, while seemingly doing nothing."

    School exchange in 1956 with the Lycée in Tournon (Mallarmé had been a teacher) and much fun had ordering Pssshhitts and Noilly Prats and pockets full of petards one of which spontaneously exploded ruining the owner's uniform jacket

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    Andy_JS said:

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    This is what is known as a conspiracy theory.
    It’s one of the peculiarities of English economic geography that Tunbridge Wells is fancy but East Grinstead is a bit of a dump.

    Yet they are both historic, Wealden towns.
    Admittedly Tunbridge had royal imprimatur at one stage but that doesn’t quite seem sufficient reason…
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm happy with the election result even though I didn't vote Labour on this occasion.

    For us LibDems, the attraction of balance of power isn’t what it once was.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Labour has its first pollster MP, Chris Curtis. (The Tories previously had Nadhim Zahawi in Stratford-on-Avon).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Curtis_(politician)
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,274
    So it’s the Milli Vanilli wannabe versus the “ I like to be cruel to child refugees “ contest .

    Talk about barrel scraping.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    Labour won about the same share of the vote (33.8%) as RN did in France (33%)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    rcs1000 said:

    theProle said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Here comes the traditional Civil Service wishlist again.

    Exhibit 1: Road pricing. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/08/labour-must-consider-pay-per-mile-road-tax/

    We’ll probably have ID cards tomorrow.

    We had an interesting and balanced debate about road pricing earlier. I personally think per mile pricing is wrong, as it punishes the wrong kind of journey. It's the shorter, urban journeys where alternatives exist that you want to make relatively less attractive, while making journeys in rural areas much cheaper.

    A general policy of reducing the fixed costs of motoring while increasing the marginal costs can only be a good thing though.
    Pity that government policy to move everybody to EVs does the exact opposite then.

    Massively increased up front costs to purchase, plus steep increases in annual insurance bills, but then very cheap to run (almost entirely because of a tax arbitrage - diesel cars would be cheaper to run if diesel and electricity were taxed the same) particularly on short journeys where you don't have to recharge away from home.
    Ummm:

    Not true, even in the UK.

    Maintenance costs are dramatically lower for electric cars because they are mechanically much simpler.

    Now, on fuel alone you are probably correct (at least in the UK)... but I wouldn't like to bet on that continuing. Electricity prices are going to fall quite a long way from here.
    Err - what maintainance costs? My dirty old diesel Passat needs an oil change every 10k miles that takes under ten minutes, requires under £20 in oil and two £5 filters (oil and air). It needs a bonus £5 fuel filter every 20k miles and a £300 (all in costs from a reputable garage, did it earlier this year) timing belt change about every 80k miles. I think all in that lot sets me back a whopping 0.8p/mile.

    By far most expensive aspect of it's running costs after fuel is tyres, and being heavier EVs wear them out faster.

    Yes, if you buy a new merc and get the dealership to service it they'll cheerfully stiff you for £300 a basic service, but that's just them charging a mug tax on £25 of stuff and 15 mins labour to people foolish enough to pay it.
    Depends how old your Passat is, and how far you drive it. I think it's the flywheel on the clutch that fails and needs replacing about every 100k miles for all VW group diesels. One of the fuel lines sprang a leak on our Passat recently, though that was exactly an expensive repair. Or previous car, a Skoda Octavia, needed a fix to the turbo.

    There are loads of things to go wrong on an ICE car.

    But. They can be fixed. Mechanical things can be fixed. If anything goes wrong with the electronics in a car it can be horrendously expensive.
    The battery issue is the biggie, minor prang involving the chassis and the car gets written off because no one can be sure that one of the thousands of 1.5V AA cells that make up the battries isn't damaged and will sooner or later self combust.

    That more than makes up for mechanical wear in an engine. Especially as the batteries degrade even if you don't drive it (especially in extreme hot and cold temperatures)

    Sorry but the technology is immature and crude and I'm not testing someones beta model at my own expense.

    Come back when you have a battery that is stable, will run 400 miles, will recharge in 5 minutes at any Petrol Station and is not able to self combust. Then I might be interested.

    In the interim I might go for a hybrid, which gives the efficiency of the electric drive train with a £1000 battery in the boot that can be changed without difficulty and can be charged from its onboard Petrol generator.

    But so long as the 18 year old low mileage car Ive had from new keeps going without major issue I will stick with it.



    While that's true, I can tell you that those damaged battery packs are sold off and recycled.

    So, the hit to the insurance company is often pretty small.

    (Source: I am CEO of an insurance company, and we get pretty amazing salvage rates on damaged electric cars.)
    US I assume? Dosent seem to be the case in the UK yet.

    Agree though that the problem will eventually go away one way or another. I'm just not going to buy the equivalent of Stephensons Rocket when if I wait two or three decades a Black 5 will be available with maintenance facilities as ubiquitous as Blacksmiths in the Packhorse era.
    Those cells are expensive. They can be easily tested and sold.

    If it doesn't exist in the UK yet, it will.
    It not existing in the UK appears to be an issue on two fronts:

    "This sentiment was echoed by Chris Payne, head of engineering at motor insurer LV, who said that “only a few qualified technicians in the UK are able to remove a battery, let alone repair it”."

    https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/359993/electric-car-write-offs-could-be-more-likely-due-high-cost-battery-repairs



    "It’s reported that scrap companies are being forced to remove the damaged parts from the written-off vehicles and store them in containers because there are no battery recycling facilities in the UK."

    https://www.driving.org/electric-cars-more-likely-to-be-written-off-due-to-battery-costs/
    I think there's some confusion between battery cells, and battery packs. A pack is a (large!) collection of cells. Working on the pack is pretty easy, you simply remove and test the individual cells, and the companies that do it in the US do it with relatively unskilled labour.

    On the other hand, repairing of damaged cells is clearly outside the ability of all but the most specialized of shops.

    In Arizona, where my business operates, there are three different firms that will take battery packs, remove and resell the undamaged cells. It is only a matter of time before the UK has similar.

    Regarding the "written off" element, I think that's a little bit of red herring. When an insurance company announces that a vehicle is written off, it doesn't mean it's value is zero, it is merely a recognition that there are greater economic returns from putting the vehicle into salvage, than in repairing it. And that can happen for a bunch of reasons. For example, I've seen quotes on repairing a vehicle as taking 28-32 weeks! (*Cough* Porsche Taycan parts from Germany *cough*.) In which case I - as the insurance company - is paying for more than half a year's worth of rental car reimbursement to the client. It's cheaper for me to payout the vehicle cost and sell off the damaged Taycan, than to wait a ridiculous period of time before the vehicle is repaired.
    Are you still using Kelley's Blue Book for auto valuations?

    Decades ago a coworker had his car "totalled" after an accident, and was unhappy for what the insurance company (of the other driver who was at fault) was offering him.

    So I went to the employee credit union, and ask to see their copy of the Blue Book, essentially to confirm that it was available. Then I went back to the guy the insurance company was trying to lowball, and told him to check it out (literally).

    He ended up happier AND wiser.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    Although I don’t doubt the fiscal jeopardy faced by the incoming French government, I note that the stock market rout predicted by various Telegraphy types, as well as Andrew Neill, simply hasn’t happened.

    It seems reasonably likely that Macron will pick someone from the Socialists or the Greens as PM.
    The idea that the election has delivered “ungovernability” doesn’t seem to hold much weight.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Andy_JS said:

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    This is what is known as a conspiracy theory.
    How would you describe a theory which said that a group of highly respected members of the establishment including distinguished lawyers and headed by a vicar deliberately suppressed and misrepresented evidence to wrongly convicted nearly a thousand innocent victims?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968

    Although I don’t doubt the fiscal jeopardy faced by the incoming French government, I note that the stock market rout predicted by various Telegraphy types, as well as Andrew Neill, simply hasn’t happened.

    It seems reasonably likely that Macron will pick someone from the Socialists or the Greens as PM.
    The idea that the election has delivered “ungovernability” doesn’t seem to hold much weight.

    Alternatively this is France and "ungovernability" is already priced in.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    Remember there is always somebody having a worse day than you....

    Ice cream van rescued after floating out to sea in Cornwall
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/08/ice-cream-van-washed-to-sea-padstow-cornwall/
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    edited July 8

    Andy_JS said:

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    This is what is known as a conspiracy theory.
    It’s one of the peculiarities of English economic geography that Tunbridge Wells is fancy but East Grinstead is a bit of a dump.

    Yet they are both historic, Wealden towns.
    Admittedly Tunbridge had royal imprimatur at one stage but that doesn’t quite seem sufficient reason…
    TW is still Royal. It's got a spa is the reason.

    Bristol vs Gloucester is the real puzzle.

    ETA also deduct 10 points for being East anything.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480
    Wow the expresserati are in a fury over the new labour government's policy announcements. Especially regarding europe. I have been saying all along that something ugly is brewing on the right and now they are out in the wilderness with no influence..... not a lot is holding them back
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Re: GE 2024 results for Birmingham constituencies = 10

    Adding in numbers for Hodge Hill and Solihull + Sutton Coldfield yields following city-wide totals

    Labour
    142,724 37.4%
    Workers / Gaza Independent
    68,518 18.0%
    Conservative
    66,067 17.3%
    Reform
    51,793 13.6%
    Green
    28,946 7.6%
    Liberal Democrat
    22,232 5.8%
    Other
    1,377 0.4%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Andy_JS said:

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    This is what is known as a conspiracy theory.
    It’s one of the peculiarities of English economic geography that Tunbridge Wells is fancy but East Grinstead is a bit of a dump.

    Yet they are both historic, Wealden towns.
    Admittedly Tunbridge had royal imprimatur at one stage but that doesn’t quite seem sufficient reason…
    Every crackpot religion, cult or alternative health fad seems to have its offices in EG, which must drag the area down.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Wow the expresserati are in a fury over the new labour government's policy announcements. Especially regarding europe. I have been saying all along that something ugly is brewing on the right and now they are out in the wilderness with no influence..... not a lot is holding them back

    Nothing ugly is brewing, give it a rest.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Iain Dale back on the radio. Just think, had he played his cards better, he could have been the losing Tory candidate in TunbrIdge Wells.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Andy_JS said:

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    This is what is known as a conspiracy theory.
    It’s one of the peculiarities of English economic geography that Tunbridge Wells is fancy but East Grinstead is a bit of a dump.

    Yet they are both historic, Wealden towns.
    Admittedly Tunbridge had royal imprimatur at one stage but that doesn’t quite seem sufficient reason…
    TW is still Royal. It's got a spa is the reason.

    Bristol vs Gloucester is the real puzzle.

    ETA also deduct 10 points for being East anything.
    East St Louis says "Yo!"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,577
    nico679 said:

    So it’s the Milli Vanilli wannabe versus the “ I like to be cruel to child refugees “ contest .

    Talk about barrel scraping.

    What do you mean by Milli Vanilli wannabe?
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Wow the expresserati are in a fury over the new labour government's policy announcements. Especially regarding europe. I have been saying all along that something ugly is brewing on the right and now they are out in the wilderness with no influence..... not a lot is holding them back

    Good. I always hoped a stealth undoing of Brexit was part of the plan.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228


    So after the counting in France

    RN 10 million votes - 36%
    NFP - 7.5 million - 25 %
    Macron - 7 million -23%

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-pourquoi-le-rn-a-obtenu-plus-de-voix-mais-moins-de-sieges-que-le-nfp-20240708

    Wait. What?

    She won the popular vote by a canter?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Leader of the Opposition Rishi Sunak announces his new Shadow Cabinet.

    Lord Cameron and Richard Holden step down and Andrew Mitchell becomes Shadow Foreign Secretary, Kemi Badenoch moves from Business to Housing otherwise it is the same Cabinet Ministers holding the Shadow Cabinet roles of those who were re elected
    https://news.sky.com/story/election-results-labour-keir-starmer-prime-minister-tory-reform-lib-dem-latest-news-12593360?postid=7943427
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,767

    Andy_JS said:

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    This is what is known as a conspiracy theory.
    It’s one of the peculiarities of English economic geography that Tunbridge Wells is fancy but East Grinstead is a bit of a dump.

    Yet they are both historic, Wealden towns.
    Admittedly Tunbridge had royal imprimatur at one stage but that doesn’t quite seem sufficient reason…
    Nominative determinism? East Grinstead just sounds like a dump. Must be Viking. See also Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Skegness, Ratby, Goole.
    And East... places are always worse than west, north or south.
    Meanwhile 'Tunbridge' sounds ever so posh - and there is nowhere grim with 'Wells' in its name.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    edited July 8

    Wow the expresserati are in a fury over the new labour government's policy announcements. Especially regarding europe. I have been saying all along that something ugly is brewing on the right and now they are out in the wilderness with no influence..... not a lot is holding them back

    It’s great to see Nick Thomas-Symonds given responsibility for constitutional matters and European relations.

    His effective predecessor was Esther McVey which tells you everything you need to know about how utterly, utterly shit the last government was. Sunak did not deserve to get 24% in my opinion.
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202
    HYUFD said:

    Leader of the Opposition Rishi Sunak announces his new Shadow Cabinet.

    Lord Cameron and Richard Holden step down and Andrew Mitchell becomes Shadow Foreign Secretary, Kemi Badenoch moves from Business to Housing otherwise it is the same Cabinet Ministers holding the Shadow Cabinet roles of those who were re elected
    https://news.sky.com/story/election-results-labour-keir-starmer-prime-minister-tory-reform-lib-dem-latest-news-12593360?postid=7943427

    @TSE u ok hun?
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Andy_JS said:

    148grss said:

    This is interesting; basically suggesting that lots of Reform UK candidates may have not been real people?

    https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/

    Looking at the example given, Mark Matlock, I can't help but now see an AI version of Elon Musk made younger and a bit chubbier...

    This is what is known as a conspiracy theory.
    It’s one of the peculiarities of English economic geography that Tunbridge Wells is fancy but East Grinstead is a bit of a dump.

    Yet they are both historic, Wealden towns.
    Admittedly Tunbridge had royal imprimatur at one stage but that doesn’t quite seem sufficient reason…
    TW is still Royal. It's got a spa is the reason.

    Bristol vs Gloucester is the real puzzle.

    ETA also deduct 10 points for being East anything.
    East St Louis says "Yo!"
    It doesn't look a happy place from its wiki page. High spot of the 20th century was being burned down so badly in a race riot it could be used to film Escape From New York.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Main site has fallen over.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,366

    Although I don’t doubt the fiscal jeopardy faced by the incoming French government, I note that the stock market rout predicted by various Telegraphy types, as well as Andrew Neill, simply hasn’t happened.

    It seems reasonably likely that Macron will pick someone from the Socialists or the Greens as PM.
    The idea that the election has delivered “ungovernability” doesn’t seem to hold much weight.

    Not just the stock market. The wide scale riots predicted by the usual suspects on here don't seem to have happened either.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 8

    Although I don’t doubt the fiscal jeopardy faced by the incoming French government, I note that the stock market rout predicted by various Telegraphy types, as well as Andrew Neill, simply hasn’t happened.

    It seems reasonably likely that Macron will pick someone from the Socialists or the Greens as PM.
    The idea that the election has delivered “ungovernability” doesn’t seem to hold much weight.

    Not just the stock market. The wide scale riots predicted by the usual suspects on here don't seem to have happened either.
    Given the French deployed 30,000 police, I don't think it was just PB who thought that there might be a spot of trouble...and that was under the presumption the RN would win.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    HYUFD said:

    Leader of the Opposition Rishi Sunak announces his new Shadow Cabinet.

    Lord Cameron and Richard Holden step down and Andrew Mitchell becomes Shadow Foreign Secretary, Kemi Badenoch moves from Business to Housing otherwise it is the same Cabinet Ministers holding the Shadow Cabinet roles of those who were re elected
    https://news.sky.com/story/election-results-labour-keir-starmer-prime-minister-tory-reform-lib-dem-latest-news-12593360?postid=7943427

    Notable that Hunt is staying on as Shadow Chancellor.
    So much for Clare Coutinho.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Jonathan said:

    Noticed an interesting bit of bias in coverage of the French election. The media are reporting that the hung parliament is a recut for chaos. The implication being that if the RN had won there would have been order, which is the idea they hope to promote. Let’s just say that the history of the far right producing order is not great.

    Something the media should watch.

    Well, the new order they start with always seems quite..er..stringent.
    Then it ends in 'we were only obeying orders'.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 8

    HYUFD said:

    Leader of the Opposition Rishi Sunak announces his new Shadow Cabinet.

    Lord Cameron and Richard Holden step down and Andrew Mitchell becomes Shadow Foreign Secretary, Kemi Badenoch moves from Business to Housing otherwise it is the same Cabinet Ministers holding the Shadow Cabinet roles of those who were re elected
    https://news.sky.com/story/election-results-labour-keir-starmer-prime-minister-tory-reform-lib-dem-latest-news-12593360?postid=7943427

    Notable that Hunt is staying on as Shadow Chancellor.
    So much for Clare Coutinho.
    Why would we expect any shift in personnel when Sunak will be gone shortly? Isn't this just window dressing until the Tories have their big punch up over leadership and then selection of what is left will tell us something.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    This thread no longer visible on the main site?
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Although I don’t doubt the fiscal jeopardy faced by the incoming French government, I note that the stock market rout predicted by various Telegraphy types, as well as Andrew Neill, simply hasn’t happened.

    It seems reasonably likely that Macron will pick someone from the Socialists or the Greens as PM.
    The idea that the election has delivered “ungovernability” doesn’t seem to hold much weight.

    Not just the stock market. The wide scale riots predicted by the usual suspects on here don't seem to have happened either.
    Regarder les gens devenant fâches, c'est pas très joli je vous le dis.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,366

    Although I don’t doubt the fiscal jeopardy faced by the incoming French government, I note that the stock market rout predicted by various Telegraphy types, as well as Andrew Neill, simply hasn’t happened.

    It seems reasonably likely that Macron will pick someone from the Socialists or the Greens as PM.
    The idea that the election has delivered “ungovernability” doesn’t seem to hold much weight.

    Not just the stock market. The wide scale riots predicted by the usual suspects on here don't seem to have happened either.
    Given the French deployed 30,000 police, I don't think it was just PB who thought that there might be a spot of trouble...and that was under the presumption the RN would win.
    Yes, you were one of them last night.
    You're our very own virtual Neighbourhood Watch champion though, always managing to find a random tweet from dodgy sources showing disorder and mayhem.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    GIN1138 said:

    This thread no longer visible on the main site?

    Is PB being run by the Tories social media manager today?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    HYUFD said:

    Leader of the Opposition Rishi Sunak announces his new Shadow Cabinet.

    Lord Cameron and Richard Holden step down and Andrew Mitchell becomes Shadow Foreign Secretary, Kemi Badenoch moves from Business to Housing otherwise it is the same Cabinet Ministers holding the Shadow Cabinet roles of those who were re elected
    https://news.sky.com/story/election-results-labour-keir-starmer-prime-minister-tory-reform-lib-dem-latest-news-12593360?postid=7943427

    Lord Cameron might have resigned to spend more time concentrating on his soon to be announced leadership bid? :D
This discussion has been closed.