ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.
The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.
No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
Your old campaigning ground of Derbyshire NE had an almost identical result in 2024 to that in 2015:
The likely Conservative gains in 2029 are going to include some non-standard places.
I wonder when the Conservatives will realise that and what it will do to their strategy and policy ideas.
Darlington, Redcar, Middlesborough South, the Stocktons need to figure in alongside Bolsover, Rother Valley etc and they need a fairly radical NW strategy
The RedWall is now the BlueWall, albeit with two shades of blue. To win these people over you have to pander to populism and "othering", although Farage is better at that than your Party are. Besides that doesn't return the Lib Dem BlueWall seats to you. I wonder in the same way once safe Labour seats are lost forever whether that might also be true of the LibDem gains in the Home Counties. Johnson's loutish behaviour didn't go down well in genteel Buckinghamshire.
And did anyone see Steve Baker's meltdown on GMB, blaming Ozzie and Balls for his defeat? Nurse, Nurse over here quickly please!
It wasn't a meltdown, it was a perfectly controlled and highly effective skewering which left Balls squirming and Osborne hiding behind his inscrutability act. This is mere tribalism: this man is on the other side, therefore he must smell of poo.
He was clearly very upset and he lost his shit. Whether his prediction that Labour will destroy the nation remains to be seen. From my point of view his previous predictions regarding Brexit, to me at least, suggest he is perhaps not the soothsayer you and Mr BEds have taken him for.
I am under no illusion that both the Labour and Conservative campaigns were disingenuous. Either taxes have to be raised or services cut, and Labour have been left holding that particular parcel.
Everything else being equal. Yes. How have we reached a situation in which public services have become so unproductive, despite the resources increasing? My local school has about 1,600 pupils, but has 200 full time equivalent members of staff. My local hospital has about a third more staff than it had even fifteen years ago.
In part, because patch and mend is cheap in the short term but expensive in the longer term. Whenever a problem comes up, the temptation is always to shift money from capital investment (pay lots upfront, reap the rewards gradually over a decade or more) to agency staff to get over this month's crisis.
It's been happening for ages, not just post-2019 or even post-2010, but the conseqences have been becoming increasingly hard to ignore.
Good luck dealing with the multiple poonamis, Keir.
This is spot on. There has also been a focus on input measures (number of doctors etc) rather than outcomes.
Would be interested if, given a free hand, schools and hospitals would have spent more on IT and estates rather than staff (obviously they would have liked to do both).
Schools rather than hospitals are my thing, but the key problem is the difference between "urgent" and "important". It would only be possible to solve the important problems by accepting that some of the urgent problems have to go hang. And we don't want to do that.
It's that time management matrix thing attributed to Eisenhower. Do the urgent and important, make time for the non-urgent and important, delegate the urgent and less important. It can be a real struggle to clear the urgent/important list, so longer term important stuff just sits there waiting for years. And schools have increasingly become the delegatee of last resort for any problems involving young people.
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
Quality candidates next time for the Cons are clearly important; but what about quality members in the short term? Can someone who knows how local associations work tell me whether there will be a purge of Reform activists who have quietly kept up their Con membership?
If you voted for Reform, and perhaps worked for them in some way, can you still drink in a Conservative Club? Asking on principle; didn’t vote Reform and don’t drink in the Con Club.
Conservative Clubs have close to no and absolutely no interaction with local conservatives. Weird.. Zero. Two in my constituency.
My outgoing MP was well liked. If the right can get it's act together at the national level he could probably win the seat back either for the Tories or Reform
Congratulations on your writeup, and your candidacy, @RochdalePioneers ! It can be a bit of a drug, that post-election buzz, so watch out. The first time I stood (2005), I was given a piece of advice by a lifelong Liberal who had preceded me as a candidate: 'Do no more than three: after that, the electorate will remember you as the guy who always loses.' Two to go for you...
Andrew George MP says hello.
He won on his second attempt, and won four times before losing - so it's slightly different!
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.
The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.
No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
Your old campaigning ground of Derbyshire NE had an almost identical result in 2024 to that in 2015:
The likely Conservative gains in 2029 are going to include some non-standard places.
I wonder when the Conservatives will realise that and what it will do to their strategy and policy ideas.
Darlington, Redcar, Middlesborough South, the Stocktons need to figure in alongside Bolsover, Rother Valley etc and they need a fairly radical NW strategy
The RedWall is now the BlueWall, albeit with two shades of blue. To win these people over you have to pander to populism and "othering", although Farage is better at that than your Party are. Besides that doesn't return the Lib Dem BlueWall seats to you. I wonder in the same way once safe Labour seats are lost forever whether that might also be true of the LibDem gains in the Home Counties. Johnson's loutish behaviour didn't go down well in genteel Buckinghamshire.
And did anyone see Steve Baker's meltdown on GMB, blaming Ozzie and Balls for his defeat? Nurse, Nurse over here quickly please!
That wasn't a meltdown and he was entirely correct. As he said Reeves is going to have to administer far fiercer Austerity than Osborne did but with a set of MPs who have told everyone that Osbornes so-called austerity** was unneccesary.
**it wasnt austerity - public spending continued to grow above inflation, just more slowly.
If Labour tries to implement real terms spending cuts them they'll be gone next time around. Substantial tax rises are nailed on. Certainly if we don't have a substantial revision of council tax to alleviate the pressure on local authorities, especially with respect to raising the cap on annual rate hikes, I'll be astonished.
There does seem to be some real structural budget pressure built in which doesnt give Labour much room to wriggle with. Theyve massively boxed themselves in with tax rise pledges.
Council tax revaluations in which almost everyone pays more (which is what you are suggesting, no?), as well as removing the limit which is currently 5% (for social care precepting authorities) again is going to go down really hard.
The missing piece of the puzzle is borrowing. The current fiscal rules are excessively tight, particularly the requirement for debt to be falling by year 5.
If Reeves can loosen borrowing without frightening the markets (by doing so to invest in capex) then that headroom, combined with lower interest rates and a tiny bit better growth than expected (and maybe one unheralded tax raid eg on CGT rate) could see the picture look significantly better.
The key then is to invest in productive assets, not just day to day spending.
ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.
The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.
No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
When the Lib Dems got their spectacular by-election wins in North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, Honiton and Tiverton, Somerton and Frome the conventional wisdom was that they would all lose at the next GE but all 4 by-election victors were returned on Thursday..
And the LDs almost won South Shropshire as well, one of the more remarkable results as the LDs started in third place behind Labour, their 8,000 votes last time up against the Tory's 37,000.
That the LDs came through so strongly past Labour in Home Counties seats like this re-enforces that, despite the merciless mid-campaign spinning from Palmer in his Didcot bunker, the LibDems really are the better placed to take on the Tories in the south away from the larger towns.
No, LD edged Labour to be second in 2019 in South Shropshire by a tiny margin having been a bad third in 2017. That was why it was so galling this time that the TV sites and MRP were advising Labour when anyone politically engaged in the seat knew that Matthew Green was best positioned to take it from the Tories, especially as the circumstances were not that dissimilar to when he took it in 2001.
Labour campaigned in Broseley where they have the council seat, there were lots of stakeboards, and that could have made the difference.
The LIbDem campaign in Didcot was interesting - they deluged the constituency in leaflets - 2 or 3 every week, some allegedly by paid-for deliverers - with almost no canvassing after the first few days. Labour did quite a lot of canvassing - against regional instructions, and ultimately with the regional data base switched off - but ultimately the sheer flood of LibDem leaflets did the trick, because they subliminally pushed the message that the LibDems were the main alternative, and given the non-ideological campaigns of the national parties there weren't many positive reasons to vote Labour rather than LibDem (or vice versa in the seats where Labour was trying and the LibDems weren't).
Would be different if it was a LibDems insurgency vs a Labour government, but worked a treat in the current circs. In retrospect more of us should have obeyed Region and gone to help in a surprisingly close race that Labour won narrowly. But it was sobering that convassing actually doesn't make much difference if the underlying message strikes a chord.
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
Ah, good old fashioned racism.
I mean really, it is. I hate the "I see racism everywhere" fruitcakes that seem to have got themselves into places of authority, but this is right down in the sewer.
1. I have had several American friends comment on the graceful way in which the Tories accepted the result and moved out of the way without rancour. I was surprised, thinking what else would you expect, until I remembered what they have experienced in the US over recent years. The Tories are not yet captured by the Trumpist world view. That is good for them and good for the country. It is vital this doesn't change.
Note that this also applies to Reform. It's nothing to do with Tories/Reformers versus Republicans but about Britain vs America. What you want to avoid is becoming like the US overall.
Reform have started with conspiracy theories and flirting with Putinism. It could come.
We must never, ever, ever join the Euro. It has forced the poor bastards into a 15 year depression.
Everything is unsustainable. I want to say when it comes, but I'll say if to play nice, if it comes it's 2008 but with intent and no capacity for bailouts on corporate or national level. The doomsday clock is 30 seconds slower than the econogeddon one
Well, if the 2019 result was a clear mandate for no referendum, which is what Scotland got, then the 2024 result must be the opposite. I look forward to Starmer talking to the Scottish government to arrange a date.
If John Swinney has conceded the mandate for indyref 2 has expired, who are we to disagree with him?
Of course it has. But I'm troubled by the fact that a majority of MPs and a majority of MSPs wasn't enough. What's the peaceful path towards Scottish independence?
I think trying to overturn a referendum result within five years via parliamentary elections when you receive fewer votes than the winning side in the plebiscite can lead to a democratic deficit.
The realpolitik is that for the foreseeable future the only way an indyref is happening is if we have a Lab/SNP coalition at Westminster.
Otherwise we're looking at the mid 2030s before it happens/
But wait, which mandates expire and which don't? The 2014 referendum result persists but the 2015 Westminster, 2016 Holyrood, the 2017 Westminster, the 2019 Westminster results have all expired.
What about the 2021 Holyrood result? Has that expired now too?
"Realpolitik" is what happens in the absence of agreed upon rules. Such situations favour certain powerful interests and those are rarely the interests of the public. I find this approach illiberal and problematic.
The rules aka the law is that granting an independence referendum is solely down to Westminster not Holyrood, this was known well before the referendum.
So the number of MPs is strictly irrelevant and words like "mandate" don't mean a thing. There is no peaceful mechanism to independence other than begging England for a referendum.
I suspect if the SNP or Alba (stop sniggering at the back) win a majority at Holyrood again then that would be a trigger as it was in 2011.
Helen Thompson (Unheard "These Times" podcast) in good form;
“It took, I think, two breaches of trust....
The first was Boris Johnson's personal behaviour. That was the trigger for Rishi Sunak to resign as Chancellor and begin what was effectively a party coup against Johnson. And then the personal trust issue around Liz Trust, because regardless of what actually happened in the moment of the, not those moments, shall we say, of her premiership itself, it began with her saying really that she had not the slightest bit of interest in levelling up, that she wanted to make the party in some sense, thatcherite.
...
It was really (sticking up) two fingers (to) those voters who voted conservative for the first time in 2019. And I don't think in that respect actually Rishi Sunak was that different.
Because if you look at the leadership contests that they had that summer, it was all about growth. And that isn't to say that growth is a problematic thing. It's simply to say it wasn't like, how do we have levelling up growth?
...
“I think it'd be hard pressed to find a parallel for a party in office engaging in that kind of repudiation of its voters' concerns.”
...
'“the explicit messaging, we are not interested in this part of our electoral coalition that voted for us only three years ago.”
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
Woaaa. This is quite a low for the site.
It shows how little the radical Left really understand the Right.
Kemi is popular because she hates identity politics.
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
She comes across to me like an evangelical christian preacher who has stumbled into politics.
These characters rarely make good leaders.
Hmm. Not sure she doesn't preach, but she might be evangelical Christian. You think she comes across as a preacher? I agree she feels like she has stumbled into politics a bit, but not in a bad way.
Sky News understands Jeremy Hunt has ruled out running for the leadership.
That's not allowed. I have a couple of quid on him. He needs to be told.
You must have missed the umpteen other times Hunt rule out standing.
He also didn`t go on the tele during the campaign. Thought he must have been fighting hard to keep his seat. Might have made some difference as otherwise it was just Rishi.
I believe the pillocks running the Tory campaign decided on a presidential style campaign in which it was all Rishi, because you know he is amaze-balls at campaigning.
It worked for Theresa May. Or rather it didn't but it's bound to work this time.
It appears Jeremy isn't going to stand for the leadership.
In some ways it's a pity but it's the right call from him
He's stood twice before. In politics as in life in general, if you apply for the same position on two separate occasions and don't succeed, you don't apply again.
And Labour now has so many seats to defend, next time Palmer will be sent somewhere more useful! The LibDems should be left alone.
Next time I'll be pushing 80! I had a stroke a few weeks ago (few physical effects after the first few days but memory affected for a while) so have been taknig it fairly easy (i.e. not more than a few hours a day).
Quality candidates next time for the Cons are clearly important; but what about quality members in the short term? Can someone who knows how local associations work tell me whether there will be a purge of Reform activists who have quietly kept up their Con membership?
If you voted for Reform, and perhaps worked for them in some way, can you still drink in a Conservative Club? Asking on principle; didn’t vote Reform and don’t drink in the Con Club.
Conservative Clubs have close to no and absolutely no interaction with local conservatives. Weird.. Zero. Two in my constituency.
Mine in Alton had a massive Vote Conservative sign outside it.
Nevertheless I agree that many simply join for a social club/bar that they like near where they live.
Sky News understands Jeremy Hunt has ruled out running for the leadership.
That's a shame. So it's Tugs or Jimmy to save the nation.
The nation's been saved. This is about saving the Tories. The drama will be much more enjoyable now they're out of power. I hope they do the right thing but it's no longer quite so integral to the governance of the country.
They need to remember they are looking for a Kinnock, not a Thatcher or Blair.
Well, if the 2019 result was a clear mandate for no referendum, which is what Scotland got, then the 2024 result must be the opposite. I look forward to Starmer talking to the Scottish government to arrange a date.
If John Swinney has conceded the mandate for indyref 2 has expired, who are we to disagree with him?
Of course it has. But I'm troubled by the fact that a majority of MPs and a majority of MSPs wasn't enough. What's the peaceful path towards Scottish independence?
I think trying to overturn a referendum result within five years via parliamentary elections when you receive fewer votes than the winning side in the plebiscite can lead to a democratic deficit.
The realpolitik is that for the foreseeable future the only way an indyref is happening is if we have a Lab/SNP coalition at Westminster.
Otherwise we're looking at the mid 2030s before it happens/
But wait, which mandates expire and which don't? The 2014 referendum result persists but the 2015 Westminster, 2016 Holyrood, the 2017 Westminster, the 2019 Westminster results have all expired.
What about the 2021 Holyrood result? Has that expired now too?
"Realpolitik" is what happens in the absence of agreed upon rules. Such situations favour certain powerful interests and those are rarely the interests of the public. I find this approach illiberal and problematic.
As a democrat I believe in self-determination - you get what you vote for. In 2021 the vote for pro-independence parties was clear, giving the Scottish Parliament a mandate.
The simple reality is that the parliament elected in 2021 hasn't used that mandate. Wings is correct - the SNP's focus isn't independence. Instead, it has disappeared down a rabbit hole of idiocy, not getting the basics right (like public services that work or delivering projects), and of pissing off its own supporters.
We've now had them in office for 17 years. They can't suddenly discover a mandate for independence. They *had* a mandate and people voted No. If at a future election the SNP run on a clear program of "if we become the government we will deliver independence" then that is a fresh mandate. You can't do that in office when you've already been given that mandate and a referendum and lost.
Helen Thompson (Unheard "These Times" podcast) in good form;
“It took, I think, two breaches of trust....
The first was Boris Johnson's personal behaviour. That was the trigger for Rishi Sunak to resign as Chancellor and begin what was effectively a party coup against Johnson. And then the personal trust issue around Liz Trust, because regardless of what actually happened in the moment of the, not those moments, shall we say, of her premiership itself, it began with her saying really that she had not the slightest bit of interest in levelling up, that she wanted to make the party in some sense, thatcherite.
...
It was really (sticking up) two fingers (to) those voters who voted conservative for the first time in 2019. And I don't think in that respect actually Rishi Sunak was that different.
Because if you look at the leadership contests that they had that summer, it was all about growth. And that isn't to say that growth is a problematic thing. It's simply to say it wasn't like, how do we have levelling up growth?
...
“I think it'd be hard pressed to find a parallel for a party in office engaging in that kind of repudiation of its voters' concerns.”
...
'“the explicit messaging, we are not interested in this part of our electoral coalition that voted for us only three years ago.”
Sunak's ideology is very similar to Truss, just a bit more fact based. I don't know how people on here got the idea he is left wing
Because he didnt come across a problem that he couldnt think throwing a heap of cash at would fix. All attempts at budget restraint disappeared with Boris and Sunak as chancellor.
I think he'll make NF eat shit and then forgive. I don’t imagine it's too much fun on your own.
He'd need to get something very substantial in return. Allister knows how to nurse a grudge, and rarely backs down.
The main selling point of the TUV is that they're less likely to be fooled by the disloyal English than the DUP, so just rolling over and taking the whip would cost them dear.
The whole episode speaks to Farage's lack of regard for his own party. It remains to be seen whether they'll be able to work together in parliament.
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
Woaaa. This is quite a low for the site.
It shows how little the radical Left really understand the Right.
Kemi is popular because she hates identity politics.
Is she popular? A genuine question as we come into a probable Conservative leadership election: what are the favourability stats for Conservatives (well, the remaining ones...) both within and without the party?
It appears Jeremy isn't going to stand for the leadership.
In some ways it's a pity but it's the right call from him
He's stood twice before. In politics as in life in general, if you apply for the same position on two separate occasions and don't succeed, you don't apply again.
Unless you're Farage, when you try try try try try try try and try again until you win.
Well, if the 2019 result was a clear mandate for no referendum, which is what Scotland got, then the 2024 result must be the opposite. I look forward to Starmer talking to the Scottish government to arrange a date.
If John Swinney has conceded the mandate for indyref 2 has expired, who are we to disagree with him?
Of course it has. But I'm troubled by the fact that a majority of MPs and a majority of MSPs wasn't enough. What's the peaceful path towards Scottish independence?
If as the Yoons state the SNP have 'failed' to get a mandate for indy via this GE, it appears they accept the principle. That's how it works isn't it?
Consistency would be welcome. Deliberate obfuscation and Kafkaesque political traps are not quite so welcome. I genuinely don't understand how anyone who's studied a little bit of history can support an approach that sets the rules on the basis of their favoured outcome. No small-L liberal should ever fall into this trap but many seemingly do.
I suppose you have to take your pleasures where you can. The 'I voted for Brexit cos of the anti democratic EU, shut up you Jocks' lads are some of the most prized exhibits in my display cabinet of hypocrites. They'll still be blathering the same inconsistent rubbish whatever happens.
Bit triumphalist of SLab to organise full marching bands through Glasgow today.
Oh, it's the Boyne Parade (which is beginning to amount to the same thing).
Thats next Friday surely?
There may be diddy ones next Friday but today is the big one in Glasgow. I believe NI is more traditionalist and keeps the 800ft high bonfires and burning in effigy stuff for the actual 12th.
A Nigerian manager in our team at work suggested a team night out next Friday. After we explained to him that a night out in Glasgow on The 12th was maybe not such a good idea, we have made it another night.
Shirley a team building exercise opportunity? Build a bonfire out of as many pallets as you can steal from the local industrial estate. The artistic ones can create the images of the Pope etc?
Helen Thompson (Unheard "These Times" podcast) in good form;
“It took, I think, two breaches of trust....
The first was Boris Johnson's personal behaviour. That was the trigger for Rishi Sunak to resign as Chancellor and begin what was effectively a party coup against Johnson. And then the personal trust issue around Liz Trust, because regardless of what actually happened in the moment of the, not those moments, shall we say, of her premiership itself, it began with her saying really that she had not the slightest bit of interest in levelling up, that she wanted to make the party in some sense, thatcherite.
...
It was really (sticking up) two fingers (to) those voters who voted conservative for the first time in 2019. And I don't think in that respect actually Rishi Sunak was that different.
Because if you look at the leadership contests that they had that summer, it was all about growth. And that isn't to say that growth is a problematic thing. It's simply to say it wasn't like, how do we have levelling up growth?
...
“I think it'd be hard pressed to find a parallel for a party in office engaging in that kind of repudiation of its voters' concerns.”
...
'“the explicit messaging, we are not interested in this part of our electoral coalition that voted for us only three years ago.”
Sunak's ideology is very similar to Truss, just a bit more fact based. I don't know how people on here got the idea he is left wing
Because he didnt come across a problem that he couldnt think throwing a heap of cash at would fix. All attempts at budget restraint disappeared with Boris and Sunak as chancellor.
As I said, Sunak was more fact based. So there was significant tension between what he needed to do and his ideology. Truss didn't bother with facts.
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
Woaaa. This is quite a low for the site.
I can see you haven't been introduced to @Dura_Ace yet.
Well, if the 2019 result was a clear mandate for no referendum, which is what Scotland got, then the 2024 result must be the opposite. I look forward to Starmer talking to the Scottish government to arrange a date.
If John Swinney has conceded the mandate for indyref 2 has expired, who are we to disagree with him?
Of course it has. But I'm troubled by the fact that a majority of MPs and a majority of MSPs wasn't enough. What's the peaceful path towards Scottish independence?
I think trying to overturn a referendum result within five years via parliamentary elections when you receive fewer votes than the winning side in the plebiscite can lead to a democratic deficit.
The realpolitik is that for the foreseeable future the only way an indyref is happening is if we have a Lab/SNP coalition at Westminster.
Otherwise we're looking at the mid 2030s before it happens/
But wait, which mandates expire and which don't? The 2014 referendum result persists but the 2015 Westminster, 2016 Holyrood, the 2017 Westminster, the 2019 Westminster results have all expired.
What about the 2021 Holyrood result? Has that expired now too?
"Realpolitik" is what happens in the absence of agreed upon rules. Such situations favour certain powerful interests and those are rarely the interests of the public. I find this approach illiberal and problematic.
The rules aka the law is that granting an independence referendum is solely down to Westminster not Holyrood, this was known well before the referendum.
So the number of MPs is strictly irrelevant and words like "mandate" don't mean a thing. There is no peaceful mechanism to independence other than begging England for a referendum.
I suspect if the SNP or Alba (stop sniggering at the back) win a majority at Holyrood again then that would be a trigger as it was in 2011.
That's an unusual requirement if you don't mind me saying so. What's the difference between that and there being a majority of pro-independence MSPs at Holyrood?
If the SNP had won ONE more MSP in 2021 at the expense of 8 pro-indy Green MSPs, would that really be a stronger mandate than what actually happened?
It was the trigger for the 2014 referendum.
As a fan of precedent I am in favour of precedent.
One thing that isn't discussed enough and what I thought was behind Nicola Sturgeon's caution was that she knew that if No wins indyref2 by just one that's it for Scottish independence as what happened in Quebec.
Well, if the 2019 result was a clear mandate for no referendum, which is what Scotland got, then the 2024 result must be the opposite. I look forward to Starmer talking to the Scottish government to arrange a date.
If John Swinney has conceded the mandate for indyref 2 has expired, who are we to disagree with him?
Of course it has. But I'm troubled by the fact that a majority of MPs and a majority of MSPs wasn't enough. What's the peaceful path towards Scottish independence?
If as the Yoons state the SNP have 'failed' to get a mandate for indy via this GE, it appears they accept the principle. That's how it works isn't it?
They were just throwing Swinney's own assertions back at him, which seems entirely legitimate as a line of attack.
Going forward, the knowledge that David Cameron's referendum gambits have bequeathed to posterity is not to have referendums, or in extremis not to hold them unless you're as sure as you can be that they'll give you an answer that you want.
The only likely scenario for a second referendum in Scotland is the establishment of a substantial and settled majority in favour of independence, such as it is obvious the country is held captive. You can then see Westminster conceding it as a confirmatory vote. There's not going to be a rematch whilst public opinion is evenly split and the Scottish Parliament produces tiny majorities in favour of one or other side of the argument. Ending up with another 52/48 result would be damaging for all concerned.
The same kind of argument, incidentally, also applies to any future attempt to rejoin the EU. Neither the UK Government nor the EU member states will want anything to do with that until there's a large and settled majority in favour of the proposition, in which case a plebiscite could be confidently anticipated to be a rubber stamp. So that ain't happening for a very long time either.
All of this is extremely frustrating to proponents of change in both instances, but it is a reality that must be accepted. These particular arguments are going to have to be won before a vote is called, not the other way around.
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
Woaaa. This is quite a low for the site.
I can see you haven't been introduced to @Dura_Ace yet.
If @Dura_Ace ever says anything positive or polite about anyone (except perhaps his wife...) then we'll all know his account has been taken over by a troll.
We must never, ever, ever join the Euro. It has forced the poor bastards into a 15 year depression.
No, what happened was politicians.
Previously, Greece over spent, defaulted, over spent.
They promised to change when the Euro came in. But not yet. So infinite cheap borrowing was the way.
When a Prof of Economics at Athens suggested reducing the size of the annul deficit, he got death threats. From actual terrorist ground among others. He was forced out of the university.
“Prof Verruca” said that he deserved them for defying the wil of the people
And in South East London. God is not smiling on Brockley Open Studios today. We were due to host 3 artists in the garden as well as my wife’s art inside. Now everyone is inside.
And the football will mean zero visitors from 5pm onwards.
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
Woaaa. This is quite a low for the site.
It shows how little the radical Left really understand the Right.
Kemi is popular because she hates identity politics.
Is she popular? A genuine question as we come into a probable Conservative leadership election: what are the favourability stats for Conservatives (well, the remaining ones...) both within and without the party?
Probably the best guess for popularity within the party;
So yeah, Badenoch is popular with the grass roots, and Casino is probably right in saying that's because she stands firm on woke indentity nonsense. Whether that appeals outside the twenty three percent, I'm not sure. And her executive record, responsibilty for the Post Office for example, doesn't look promising. Having said that, they could easily do a lot worse.
Trouble is that LotO is a damn difficult job and ministerial experience is almost exactly the wrong preparation for it. As a minsiter, you make news happen. In opposition, news is what happens to you, unless you are prepared to (let's face it) demean yourself with silly stunts.
My hunch is that the Conservatives are going to find it difficult until they can get a leader who can say "Johnson/Truss/Sunak? Nothing to do with me. I wasn't even an MP then."
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
Woaaa. This is quite a low for the site.
I can see you haven't been introduced to @Dura_Ace yet.
If @Dura_Ace ever says anything positive or polite about anyone (except perhaps his wife...) then we'll all know his account has been taken over by a troll.
Well done, RP. May you savour the Cybernats' tears. The downfall of the SNP is some consolation.
Isn't it all part of Starmer's shallow victory though? I don't see any real revival in Britishness north of the border. Without a concerted effort from Westminster the Scot nats will be back.
Quality candidates next time for the Cons are clearly important; but what about quality members in the short term? Can someone who knows how local associations work tell me whether there will be a purge of Reform activists who have quietly kept up their Con membership?
If you voted for Reform, and perhaps worked for them in some way, can you still drink in a Conservative Club? Asking on principle; didn’t vote Reform and don’t drink in the Con Club.
Conservative Clubs have close to no and absolutely no interaction with local conservatives. Weird.. Zero. Two in my constituency.
Mine in Alton had a massive Vote Conservative sign outside it.
Nevertheless I agree that many simply join for a social club/bar that they like near where they live.
I remember years ago in Wales someone saying that he drunk in the local Conservative Club because then it was the only place locally where you could get a drink on Sunday. Also, the drinks were so cheap that he felt they must be subsidised and therefore he was taking money off the Conservatives by buying them.
To think there are some idiots who wanted us in the euro and some of them still do. If we tried to rejoin the EU we'd have to commit to joining the single currency, which is why I suspect it will never happen. Rejoiners always try to change the subject when I bring this up.
As a deficit country it would be a catastrophe the moment there is a large adverse shock, and, unlike Greece or Ireland, we're too big to be bailed out. We might well bring down the whole currency with us.
First Post election chat with old man Woolie, as well as treating him to dinner out tomorrow as sister Woolie has abandoned us for hotter climes we agreed the foul weather is definitely the government's fault and with Jonah Labour in number 10 England are doomed at 5. 2009/early 2010 is back, baby
ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.
The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.
No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
When the Lib Dems got their spectacular by-election wins in North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, Honiton and Tiverton, Somerton and Frome the conventional wisdom was that they would all lose at the next GE but all 4 by-election victors were returned on Thursday..
And the LDs almost won South Shropshire as well, one of the more remarkable results as the LDs started in third place behind Labour, their 8,000 votes last time up against the Tory's 37,000.
That the LDs came through so strongly past Labour in Home Counties seats like this re-enforces that, despite the merciless mid-campaign spinning from Palmer in his Didcot bunker, the LibDems really are the better placed to take on the Tories in the south away from the larger towns.
No, LD edged Labour to be second in 2019 in South Shropshire by a tiny margin having been a bad third in 2017. That was why it was so galling this time that the TV sites and MRP were advising Labour when anyone politically engaged in the seat knew that Matthew Green was best positioned to take it from the Tories, especially as the circumstances were not that dissimilar to when he took it in 2001.
Labour campaigned in Broseley where they have the council seat, there were lots of stakeboards, and that could have made the difference.
The LIbDem campaign in Didcot was interesting - they deluged the constituency in leaflets - 2 or 3 every week, some allegedly by paid-for deliverers - with almost no canvassing after the first few days. Labour did quite a lot of canvassing - against regional instructions, and ultimately with the regional data base switched off - but ultimately the sheer flood of LibDem leaflets did the trick, because they subliminally pushed the message that the LibDems were the main alternative, and given the non-ideological campaigns of the national parties there weren't many positive reasons to vote Labour rather than LibDem (or vice versa in the seats where Labour was trying and the LibDems weren't).
Would be different if it was a LibDems insurgency vs a Labour government, but worked a treat in the current circs. In retrospect more of us should have obeyed Region and gone to help in a surprisingly close race that Labour won narrowly. But it was sobering that convassing actually doesn't make much difference if the underlying message strikes a chord.
In a GE, the 'find your voters and get them out' classical approach to canvassing' is pretty unimportant. Canvassing is part of the mix to create the impression of an active campaign, and is critical if you intend to do something with the data before polling day, such as targeted messaging. Canvassing certainly doesn't change anyone's mind - the research suggests the main impact is that being canvassed increases the likelihood of someone actually voting. Hence nowadays the 'just go knock on every door' old style canvass is rarely done, since you just make it more likely your opponents will vote.
But I'd say that during an election it's the least productive way of spending your time. I won my London ward six times running, including during the incredibly tough coalition times, and we never managed to knock on more than about 50-60% of the doors during the campaign. And half of those were not in.
Indeed the most useful thing about going door knocking is the leaflet you leave
It appears Jeremy isn't going to stand for the leadership.
In some ways it's a pity but it's the right call from him
He's stood twice before. In politics as in life in general, if you apply for the same position on two separate occasions and don't succeed, you don't apply again.
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
I think the bigger challenge is whether or not she keep the tory pensioner base on board.
Well, if the 2019 result was a clear mandate for no referendum, which is what Scotland got, then the 2024 result must be the opposite. I look forward to Starmer talking to the Scottish government to arrange a date.
If John Swinney has conceded the mandate for indyref 2 has expired, who are we to disagree with him?
Of course it has. But I'm troubled by the fact that a majority of MPs and a majority of MSPs wasn't enough. What's the peaceful path towards Scottish independence?
If as the Yoons state the SNP have 'failed' to get a mandate for indy via this GE, it appears they accept the principle. That's how it works isn't it?
They were just throwing Swinney's own assertions back at him, which seems entirely legitimate as a line of attack.
Going forward, the knowledge that David Cameron's referendum gambits have bequeathed to posterity is not to have referendums, or in extremis not to hold them unless you're as sure as you can be that they'll give you an answer that you want.
The only likely scenario for a second referendum in Scotland is the establishment of a substantial and settled majority in favour of independence, such as it is obvious the country is held captive. You can then see Westminster conceding it as a confirmatory vote. There's not going to be a rematch whilst public opinion is evenly split and the Scottish Parliament produces tiny majorities in favour of one or other side of the argument. Ending up with another 52/48 result would be damaging for all concerned.
The same kind of argument, incidentally, also applies to any future attempt to rejoin the EU. Neither the UK Government nor the EU member states will want anything to do with that until there's a large and settled majority in favour of the proposition, in which case a plebiscite could be confidently anticipated to be a rubber stamp. So that ain't happening for a very long time either.
All of this is extremely frustrating to proponents of change in both instances, but it is a reality that must be accepted. These particular arguments are going to have to be won before a vote is called, not the other way around.
I think referendums should only be used to get final public endorsement for a major constitutional step that has been agreed and worked out by government. It is in effect a constitutional check on governments who risk going in a direction the population don't want.
So you would hold a referendum on independence for Scotland if both governments had agreed the mechanism subject to this approval. Or for leaving the EU if the UK government had decided it want to leave and had worked out the steps with the EU.
In Swiss direct democracy terms referendums are always after the fact. What we actually got are called initiatives. These don't fit well with the British political system.
Makes you wonder why Hunt fought so hard to keep his seat. He is independently wealthy, he doesn't need to be an MP & has been one for a long time now.
I heard he wanted to be the Willie Whitelaw for the next Tory leader.
He really doesn't want the ERG mob to take over and he can best defeat them from inside Parliament.
As Maggie wrily observed as the first female in the role, every Prime Minister needs a Willie.
Although, in Penny Mordaunt's case, probably a cock.
Somebody said something very harsh to me yesterday which I had no response to.
'I am not sure having a leader whose speeches felt like they were written by you would be an election winner.'
Well, if the 2019 result was a clear mandate for no referendum, which is what Scotland got, then the 2024 result must be the opposite. I look forward to Starmer talking to the Scottish government to arrange a date.
If John Swinney has conceded the mandate for indyref 2 has expired, who are we to disagree with him?
Of course it has. But I'm troubled by the fact that a majority of MPs and a majority of MSPs wasn't enough. What's the peaceful path towards Scottish independence?
I think trying to overturn a referendum result within five years via parliamentary elections when you receive fewer votes than the winning side in the plebiscite can lead to a democratic deficit.
The realpolitik is that for the foreseeable future the only way an indyref is happening is if we have a Lab/SNP coalition at Westminster.
Otherwise we're looking at the mid 2030s before it happens/
But wait, which mandates expire and which don't? The 2014 referendum result persists but the 2015 Westminster, 2016 Holyrood, the 2017 Westminster, the 2019 Westminster results have all expired.
What about the 2021 Holyrood result? Has that expired now too?
"Realpolitik" is what happens in the absence of agreed upon rules. Such situations favour certain powerful interests and those are rarely the interests of the public. I find this approach illiberal and problematic.
The rules aka the law is that granting an independence referendum is solely down to Westminster not Holyrood, this was known well before the referendum.
So the number of MPs is strictly irrelevant and words like "mandate" don't mean a thing. There is no peaceful mechanism to independence other than begging England for a referendum.
There was a referendum only a few years ago. Another would be unstoppable if, say, 60% of Scots wanted independence according to consistent and proper polling. The breakup of countries is a non trivial matter and can't be left to pressure groups.
Only recently the SNP in a childish way wanted this GE to be referendum on independence. Now suddenly they didn't. That is no political state to be in if you want grown ups to take it seriously. This is how Trumpians do politics.
BTW, the SNP got about 30% vote share in Scotland. Unlike the SNP recently, this should not be taken as evidence against independence in the long term.
Quality candidates next time for the Cons are clearly important; but what about quality members in the short term? Can someone who knows how local associations work tell me whether there will be a purge of Reform activists who have quietly kept up their Con membership?
If you voted for Reform, and perhaps worked for them in some way, can you still drink in a Conservative Club? Asking on principle; didn’t vote Reform and don’t drink in the Con Club.
Conservative Clubs have close to no and absolutely no interaction with local conservatives. Weird.. Zero. Two in my constituency.
Mine in Alton had a massive Vote Conservative sign outside it.
Nevertheless I agree that many simply join for a social club/bar that they like near where they live.
People were thrown out of one where I lived for having Labour or LibDem posters in their windows.
Well, if the 2019 result was a clear mandate for no referendum, which is what Scotland got, then the 2024 result must be the opposite. I look forward to Starmer talking to the Scottish government to arrange a date.
If John Swinney has conceded the mandate for indyref 2 has expired, who are we to disagree with him?
Of course it has. But I'm troubled by the fact that a majority of MPs and a majority of MSPs wasn't enough. What's the peaceful path towards Scottish independence?
If as the Yoons state the SNP have 'failed' to get a mandate for indy via this GE, it appears they accept the principle. That's how it works isn't it?
They were just throwing Swinney's own assertions back at him, which seems entirely legitimate as a line of attack.
Going forward, the knowledge that David Cameron's referendum gambits have bequeathed to posterity is not to have referendums, or in extremis not to hold them unless you're as sure as you can be that they'll give you an answer that you want.
The only likely scenario for a second referendum in Scotland is the establishment of a substantial and settled majority in favour of independence, such as it is obvious the country is held captive. You can then see Westminster conceding it as a confirmatory vote. There's not going to be a rematch whilst public opinion is evenly split and the Scottish Parliament produces tiny majorities in favour of one or other side of the argument. Ending up with another 52/48 result would be damaging for all concerned.
The same kind of argument, incidentally, also applies to any future attempt to rejoin the EU. Neither the UK Government nor the EU member states will want anything to do with that until there's a large and settled majority in favour of the proposition, in which case a plebiscite could be confidently anticipated to be a rubber stamp. So that ain't happening for a very long time either.
All of this is extremely frustrating to proponents of change in both instances, but it is a reality that must be accepted. These particular arguments are going to have to be won before a vote is called, not the other way around.
I think referendums should only be used to get final public endorsement for a major constitutional step that has been agreed and worked out by government. It is in effect a constitutional check on governments who risk going in a direction the population don't want.
So you would hold a referendum on independence for Scotland if both governments had agreed the mechanism subject to this approval. Or for leaving the EU if the UK government had decided it want to leave and had worked out the steps with the EU.
In Swiss direct democracy terms referendums are always after the fact. What we actually got are called initiatives. These don't fit well with the British political system.
Given the EU's "no negotiation until Article 50 is invoked" policy, it's not likely that would have been possible.
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
Woaaa. This is quite a low for the site.
It shows how little the radical Left really understand the Right.
Kemi is popular because she hates identity politics.
Is she popular? A genuine question as we come into a probable Conservative leadership election: what are the favourability stats for Conservatives (well, the remaining ones...) both within and without the party?
Probably the best guess for popularity within the party;
Trouble is that LotO is a damn difficult job and ministerial experience is almost exactly the wrong preparation for it. As a minsiter, you make news happen. In opposition, news is what happens to you, unless you are prepared to (let's face it) demean yourself with silly stunts.
My hunch is that the Conservatives are going to find it difficult until they can get a leader who can say "Johnson/Truss/Sunak? Nothing to do with me. I wasn't even an MP then."
It's an interesting point that the skills for LoTO are not really applicable to being a Minister, and the same applies vice-versa.
I stuggle with who would make a good choice at this time for the Tories, when they haven't had the chance even to decide how to respond to the loss, yet of course you cannot decide that until you choose a new leader, who then may have to fight the battle all over again.
It is almost disappointing that most of the likely candidates are all former contenders, but such are usually the people who have any pull or recognition in the group. Tugendhat has the least senior ministerial experience of the current crop but also feels more closely aligned with the last clique, which may not help him.
But an MP with a decent level of experience who is also talented and yet not associated with mistakes or internal battles of the past probably doens't exist.
Watch this it’s fascinating - I asked James Timpson what he’d do about prisons and sentencing if he was in charge. He believes only a third of prisoners in jail should definitely be there. He’s now in charge of prisons (but not sentencing). [VIDEO]
Watch this it’s fascinating - I asked James Timpson what he’d do about prisons and sentencing if he was in charge. He believes only a third of prisoners in jail should definitely be there. He’s now in charge of prisons (but not sentencing). [VIDEO]
I'd be interested to see what comes of this, as I have a rather loose picture of our prisons at present. I feel like we need to build more prisons, but also we jail plenty of people who don't need to be, and that whilst part of the purpose of prison is punishment it is not an effective means of punishment for many offences.
Jeremy Hunt rules out leadership bid - GB News reports
It is clear to me that it is not his time. I rate Hunt very highly as a public servant but unfortunately he would be seen as a grey centrist and continuity Sunak. For me it is clearly Badenoch who should take on the job as she can encroach in to RefUK territory and expand the conservatives appeal amongst the young, also she is not 'toxic' in the way that Braverman and Patel are.
Badenoch appears to be kind, thoughtful, with very very traditional small conservative values which are still prominent in many immigrant families but have lost favour in the UK. She has a Corbyn like naivety about her though and would need someone who was battle hardened to keep her on track to remind her that culture war stuff is really important to a few, but the big picture stuff like health education and the economy are more important.
The tories aren't going to win back the Fukkers with a diversity hire.
Good effort but you are once again wrong. She actually appears to have a degree of depth to her views lacking in most modern frontline politicians. I'd also give her credit for being prepared to call out the misdiagnosing of gay kids as trans.
By the way the Scottish government thought yesterday would be a good day to 'announce' that they will be banning the use of puberty blockers.
This is an interesting case. I guess there will be changes to how housing need is calculated and the consequences for not meeting this meaning approvals of suburban boxes that fill up the housebuilders land banks whilst they wait for government subsidy to assist with build out. The electoral geography is such that they will be focussed on areas where labour came third and are now tory/lib dem marginals.
"Former Tory minister may become Labour’s ‘planning tsar’ Approach made to Nick Boles as Starmer prepares to announce immediate changes to regulations"
ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.
The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.
No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
When the Lib Dems got their spectacular by-election wins in North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, Honiton and Tiverton, Somerton and Frome the conventional wisdom was that they would all lose at the next GE but all 4 by-election victors were returned on Thursday..
And the LDs almost won South Shropshire as well, one of the more remarkable results as the LDs started in third place behind Labour, their 8,000 votes last time up against the Tory's 37,000.
That the LDs came through so strongly past Labour in Home Counties seats like this re-enforces that, despite the merciless mid-campaign spinning from Palmer in his Didcot bunker, the LibDems really are the better placed to take on the Tories in the south away from the larger towns.
No, LD edged Labour to be second in 2019 in South Shropshire by a tiny margin having been a bad third in 2017. That was why it was so galling this time that the TV sites and MRP were advising Labour when anyone politically engaged in the seat knew that Matthew Green was best positioned to take it from the Tories, especially as the circumstances were not that dissimilar to when he took it in 2001.
Labour campaigned in Broseley where they have the council seat, there were lots of stakeboards, and that could have made the difference.
The LIbDem campaign in Didcot was interesting - they deluged the constituency in leaflets - 2 or 3 every week, some allegedly by paid-for deliverers - with almost no canvassing after the first few days. Labour did quite a lot of canvassing - against regional instructions, and ultimately with the regional data base switched off - but ultimately the sheer flood of LibDem leaflets did the trick, because they subliminally pushed the message that the LibDems were the main alternative, and given the non-ideological campaigns of the national parties there weren't many positive reasons to vote Labour rather than LibDem (or vice versa in the seats where Labour was trying and the LibDems weren't).
Would be different if it was a LibDems insurgency vs a Labour government, but worked a treat in the current circs. In retrospect more of us should have obeyed Region and gone to help in a surprisingly close race that Labour won narrowly. But it was sobering that convassing actually doesn't make much difference if the underlying message strikes a chord.
In a GE, the 'find your voters and get them out' classical approach to canvassing' is pretty unimportant. Canvassing is part of the mix to create the impression of an active campaign, and is critical if you intend to do something with the data before polling day, such as targeted messaging. Canvassing certainly doesn't change anyone's mind - the research suggests the main impact is that being canvassed increases the likelihood of someone actually voting. Hence nowadays the 'just go knock on every door' old style canvass is rarely done, since you just make it more likely your opponents will vote.
But I'd say that during an election it's the least productive way of spending your time. I won my London ward six times running, including during the incredibly tough coalition times, and we never managed to knock on more than about 50-60% of the doors during the campaign. And half of those were not in.
Indeed the most useful thing about going door knocking is the leaflet you leave
I think this is a really good post. Yes, I've been skeptical about the value of canvassing, but I like the point that it can create the impression of an active campaign etc, so it has uses and can add value, but the old style image of random door knocking is not the most effective use of time.
Well, if the 2019 result was a clear mandate for no referendum, which is what Scotland got, then the 2024 result must be the opposite. I look forward to Starmer talking to the Scottish government to arrange a date.
If John Swinney has conceded the mandate for indyref 2 has expired, who are we to disagree with him?
Of course it has. But I'm troubled by the fact that a majority of MPs and a majority of MSPs wasn't enough. What's the peaceful path towards Scottish independence?
If as the Yoons state the SNP have 'failed' to get a mandate for indy via this GE, it appears they accept the principle. That's how it works isn't it?
They were just throwing Swinney's own assertions back at him, which seems entirely legitimate as a line of attack.
Going forward, the knowledge that David Cameron's referendum gambits have bequeathed to posterity is not to have referendums, or in extremis not to hold them unless you're as sure as you can be that they'll give you an answer that you want.
The only likely scenario for a second referendum in Scotland is the establishment of a substantial and settled majority in favour of independence, such as it is obvious the country is held captive. You can then see Westminster conceding it as a confirmatory vote. There's not going to be a rematch whilst public opinion is evenly split and the Scottish Parliament produces tiny majorities in favour of one or other side of the argument. Ending up with another 52/48 result would be damaging for all concerned.
The same kind of argument, incidentally, also applies to any future attempt to rejoin the EU. Neither the UK Government nor the EU member states will want anything to do with that until there's a large and settled majority in favour of the proposition, in which case a plebiscite could be confidently anticipated to be a rubber stamp. So that ain't happening for a very long time either.
All of this is extremely frustrating to proponents of change in both instances, but it is a reality that must be accepted. These particular arguments are going to have to be won before a vote is called, not the other way around.
I think referendums should only be used to get final public endorsement for a major constitutional step that has been agreed and worked out by government. It is in effect a constitutional check on governments who risk going in a direction the population don't want.
So you would hold a referendum on independence for Scotland if both governments had agreed the mechanism subject to this approval. Or for leaving the EU if the UK government had decided it want to leave and had worked out the steps with the EU.
In Swiss direct democracy terms referendums are always after the fact. What we actually got are called initiatives. These don't fit well with the British political system.
Given the EU's "no negotiation until Article 50 is invoked" policy, it's not likely that would have been possible.
I don't think that necessarily would prevent a referendum, but the UK government's position would need to be fully worked out before holding the vote. Including most obviously a decision in principle to leave the European Union.
The Swiss initiative system has worked reasonably well, counter intuitively, because most initiatives fail. This has been less true recently and may be a problem.
Watch this it’s fascinating - I asked James Timpson what he’d do about prisons and sentencing if he was in charge. He believes only a third of prisoners in jail should definitely be there. He’s now in charge of prisons (but not sentencing). [VIDEO]
Thankfully during the next four years or so not every discussion about politics will have to be conducted in the knowledge that the Tories and their supporters will take anything that's said by anyone else, exaggerate it beyond recognition and retail it as fact to a million people through social media.
Unless that's going to be a permanent thing for them now.
As Starmer ended up with a 170 odd majority Truss lost her seat.
Any political commentator, if they are at it long enough, inevitably devolves into thinking 'Opponent X is criticising Politician Y, whom I support. X must be afraid of Y winning!'
Sometimes it might be true, but oftentimes it just means X thinks Y is crap.
Watch this it’s fascinating - I asked James Timpson what he’d do about prisons and sentencing if he was in charge. He believes only a third of prisoners in jail should definitely be there. He’s now in charge of prisons (but not sentencing). [VIDEO]
And Labour now has so many seats to defend, next time Palmer will be sent somewhere more useful! The LibDems should be left alone.
Next time I'll be pushing 80! I had a stroke a few weeks ago (few physical effects after the first few days but memory affected for a while) so have been taknig it fairly easy (i.e. not more than a few hours a day).
Very wise. One of those ‘diseases’ for which the indicator for having one is having one earlier. And yes I’ve had one and AFAIK completely recovered. Put my recovery from my other problems back a bit, though.
Watch this it’s fascinating - I asked James Timpson what he’d do about prisons and sentencing if he was in charge. He believes only a third of prisoners in jail should definitely be there. He’s now in charge of prisons (but not sentencing). [VIDEO]
Good appointment. The starting point might be that once you have sorted out which prisoners (more than the current number, and not all murderers) should never be let out on account of either badness or madness, the rest are coming out sometime and the rest of us are less safe if they come out still deeply immature or bad or mad - or any combination - so the big case against the Daily Mail/Sun 'lock 'em up' line is that it fails to protect us.
Watch this it’s fascinating - I asked James Timpson what he’d do about prisons and sentencing if he was in charge. He believes only a third of prisoners in jail should definitely be there. He’s now in charge of prisons (but not sentencing). [VIDEO]
Good appointment. The starting point might be that once you have sorted out which prisoners (more than the current number, and not all murderers) should never be let out on account of either badness or madness, the rest are coming out sometime and the rest of us are less safe if they come out still deeply immature or bad or mad - or any combination - so the big case against the Daily Mail/Sun 'lock 'em up' line is that it fails to protect us.
According to public opinion, there are also people who shouldn't be in prison because they should be executed.
if anchorage_response["temperature"] == london_response["temperature"]: requests.post(pb_url, "It's the same temperature in Anchorage and London. I'm very smart.")
Comments
It's that time management matrix thing attributed to Eisenhower. Do the urgent and important, make time for the non-urgent and important, delegate the urgent and less important. It can be a real struggle to clear the urgent/important list, so longer term important stuff just sits there waiting for years. And schools have increasingly become the delegatee of last resort for any problems involving young people.
Not easy to fix.
Independence isn't the consuming priority it was for these people however.
https://www.npr.org/2024/07/05/nx-s1-5027839/greece-six-day-workweek-law
We must never, ever, ever join the Euro. It has forced the poor bastards into a 15 year depression.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/anGvL7oPzf3sAFkU/
The link should take you to Brendan Clarke Smith Facebook page
Would be different if it was a LibDems insurgency vs a Labour government, but worked a treat in the current circs. In retrospect more of us should have obeyed Region and gone to help in a surprisingly close race that Labour won narrowly. But it was sobering that convassing actually doesn't make much difference if the underlying message strikes a chord.
This is quite a low for the site.
13C, and pelting rain
The doomsday clock is 30 seconds slower than the econogeddon one
Kemi is popular because she hates identity politics.
In some ways it's a pity but it's the right call from him
He's stood twice before. In politics as in life in general, if you apply for the same position on two separate occasions and don't succeed, you don't apply again.
Too early to say if it was worth it but the Greek economy is definitely not in a depression.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/greek-economy-surges-after-decade-pain-2024-04-18/
Nevertheless I agree that many simply join for a social club/bar that they like near where they live.
The simple reality is that the parliament elected in 2021 hasn't used that mandate. Wings is correct - the SNP's focus isn't independence. Instead, it has disappeared down a rabbit hole of idiocy, not getting the basics right (like public services that work or delivering projects), and of pissing off its own supporters.
We've now had them in office for 17 years. They can't suddenly discover a mandate for independence. They *had* a mandate and people voted No. If at a future election the SNP run on a clear program of "if we become the government we will deliver independence" then that is a fresh mandate. You can't do that in office when you've already been given that mandate and a referendum and lost.
The main selling point of the TUV is that they're less likely to be fooled by the disloyal English than the DUP, so just rolling over and taking the whip would cost them dear.
The whole episode speaks to Farage's lack of regard for his own party. It remains to be seen whether they'll be able to work together in parliament.
I'd have gone to the poor house.
Oh, THAT Jeremy....
As a fan of precedent I am in favour of precedent.
One thing that isn't discussed enough and what I thought was behind Nicola Sturgeon's caution was that she knew that if No wins indyref2 by just one that's it for Scottish independence as what happened in Quebec.
Going forward, the knowledge that David Cameron's referendum gambits have bequeathed to posterity is not to have referendums, or in extremis not to hold them unless you're as sure as you can be that they'll give you an answer that you want.
The only likely scenario for a second referendum in Scotland is the establishment of a substantial and settled majority in favour of independence, such as it is obvious the country is held captive. You can then see Westminster conceding it as a confirmatory vote. There's not going to be a rematch whilst public opinion is evenly split and the Scottish Parliament produces tiny majorities in favour of one or other side of the argument. Ending up with another 52/48 result would be damaging for all concerned.
The same kind of argument, incidentally, also applies to any future attempt to rejoin the EU. Neither the UK Government nor the EU member states will want anything to do with that until there's a large and settled majority in favour of the proposition, in which case a plebiscite could be confidently anticipated to be a rubber stamp. So that ain't happening for a very long time either.
All of this is extremely frustrating to proponents of change in both instances, but it is a reality that must be accepted. These particular arguments are going to have to be won before a vote is called, not the other way around.
Perhaps I interpret peoples' words too literally but but always amazed by those who insist we will definitely/we will never rejoin the EU.
Previously, Greece over spent, defaulted, over spent.
They promised to change when the Euro came in. But not yet. So infinite cheap borrowing was the way.
When a Prof of Economics at Athens suggested reducing the size of the annul deficit, he got death threats. From actual terrorist ground among others. He was forced out of the university.
“Prof Verruca” said that he deserved them for defying the wil of the people
And the football will mean zero visitors from 5pm onwards.
Farage is busy today but will soon enough be on the case again.
https://conservativehome.com/2024/05/09/our-survey-only-one-big-change-in-our-cabinet-league-table-douglas-ross-in-fourth-place/
So yeah, Badenoch is popular with the grass roots, and Casino is probably right in saying that's because she stands firm on woke indentity nonsense. Whether that appeals outside the twenty three percent, I'm not sure. And her executive record, responsibilty for the Post Office for example, doesn't look promising. Having said that, they could easily do a lot worse.
Trouble is that LotO is a damn difficult job and ministerial experience is almost exactly the wrong preparation for it. As a minsiter, you make news happen. In opposition, news is what happens to you, unless you are prepared to (let's face it) demean yourself with silly stunts.
My hunch is that the Conservatives are going to find it difficult until they can get a leader who can say "Johnson/Truss/Sunak? Nothing to do with me. I wasn't even an MP then."
As a deficit country it would be a catastrophe the moment there is a large adverse shock, and, unlike Greece or Ireland, we're too big to be bailed out. We might well bring down the whole currency with us.
I like a happy ending.
2009/early 2010 is back, baby
But I'd say that during an election it's the least productive way of spending your time. I won my London ward six times running, including during the incredibly tough coalition times, and we never managed to knock on more than about 50-60% of the doors during the campaign. And half of those were not in.
Indeed the most useful thing about going door knocking is the leaflet you leave
So you would hold a referendum on independence for Scotland if both governments had agreed the mechanism subject to this approval. Or for leaving the EU if the UK government had decided it want to leave and had worked out the steps with the EU.
In Swiss direct democracy terms referendums are always after the fact. What we actually got are called initiatives. These don't fit well with the British political system.
If so, let's see who seeks out Jeremy to sit next to.
As Starmer ended up with a 170 odd majority Truss lost her seat.
Only recently the SNP in a childish way wanted this GE to be referendum on independence. Now suddenly they didn't. That is no political state to be in if you want grown ups to take it seriously. This is how Trumpians do politics.
BTW, the SNP got about 30% vote share in Scotland. Unlike the SNP recently, this should not be taken as evidence against independence in the long term.
I stuggle with who would make a good choice at this time for the Tories, when they haven't had the chance even to decide how to respond to the loss, yet of course you cannot decide that until you choose a new leader, who then may have to fight the battle all over again.
It is almost disappointing that most of the likely candidates are all former contenders, but such are usually the people who have any pull or recognition in the group. Tugendhat has the least senior ministerial experience of the current crop but also feels more closely aligned with the last clique, which may not help him.
But an MP with a decent level of experience who is also talented and yet not associated with mistakes or internal battles of the past probably doens't exist.
[VIDEO]
https://x.com/krishgm/status/1809503192511602776
Win or lose, democracy works by people standing for what they believe in. You should be proud of yourself.
By the way the Scottish government thought yesterday would be a good day to 'announce' that they will be banning the use of puberty blockers.
"Former Tory minister may become Labour’s ‘planning tsar’
Approach made to Nick Boles as Starmer prepares to announce immediate changes to regulations"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/06/labour-nick-boles-planning-tsar
The Swiss initiative system has worked reasonably well, counter intuitively, because most initiatives fail. This has been less true recently and may be a problem.
Unless that's going to be a permanent thing for them now.
Sometimes it might be true, but oftentimes it just means X thinks Y is crap.
And yes I’ve had one and AFAIK completely recovered. Put my recovery from my other problems back a bit, though.