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Letter from Aberdeenshire North and Moray East – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 6 in General
imageLetter from Aberdeenshire North and Moray East – politicalbetting.com

When Sky News came and interviewed me, there were various requests and suggestions for PBisms I could try to slip into the package. I failed.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    First, like I was to vote on the day.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 6
    Fifth, like the Greens in Ashfield.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 6
    Sixth, like the Lib Dems in Ashfield.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 6
    Seventh. This one is secret ... ask Enid Blyton.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,457
    Ross is an idiot, the Scottish Tories would do well to be rid of him.

    And, seconded, well done @RochdalePioneers!
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 6
    Ninth. Counting error in Ashfield.

    @Pulpstar , you troublemaker :wink: .
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited July 6
    The Nats are abusive?

    No, I refuse to believe it.

    I was devastated to see their joyous and civic politics reduced to 9 MPs.

    The SNP has descended into a fresh bout of infighting after John Swinney appeared to accept the disastrous election result had wiped out its mandate for an independence referendum.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-independence-labour-snp-general-election-pcmch2mn9
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    He would have walked it. This is the absurdity of what the Tories did to themselves.

    Even more absurdly the SNP then decided that they would walk it, and got increasingly upset that their own support was fading.

    They won the seat, but with less votes and a lower percentage than last time…
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    Well done Rochdale. Your being part of the political assassination squad that did for this particular Wee Dougie was a joy to behold.

    PB is a fantastic go to resource on election day and during the campaign, whatever the election.

    My own fear that this could be 1992 again proved unfounded, although without Reform it very well might have been.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    Have we heard anything from Aaron Bell?
  • Options
    TimmycoolTimmycool Posts: 15
    That's what I love about PB - getting the insight from right inside the race. I'm not sure we'd get that elsewhere. Well done RP. You'll serve the people with honour and integrity. I'm looking forward to your updates from the benches.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    Pulpstar said:

    This might be good news for the world

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx824yl3ln4o

    It will be if he is still alive in a month. But the power still ultimately rests with the Supreme Leader. That is what needs to change.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    Have we heard anything from Aaron Bell?

    Give him a ring.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    And Ross might have won the Moray West constituency.

    Another case of the conduct of Conservative politicians leading to their downfall.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Thanks for the updates and reasoned analysis from the ground RP and well done on your campaign
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 6
    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,457

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    On the last part... so it'll be binned next week?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    From one election 🇬🇧 to another 🇫🇷

    Final polls before tomorrow’s 2nd round of potentially cataclysmic French elections suggest the Far Right will fall far short of an overall majority in the National Assembly. Can we trust the polls? They are either all right or all wrong 1/

    Final surveys by four organisations before polls were banned at midnightgive the Far Right and allies a range between 170 and 215 seats – more than 80 short of an overall majority (289 seats) 2/

    Final surveys last night suggest that there may now even be an overall majority of seats for a “rainbow” coalition stretching from moderate left & greens, through Macron’s centre to the ex-Gaullist centre right. Whether such an unFrench coalition could fly is open to question 4/

    https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1809495144204206288
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    For me the hurricane that has eventually hit the SNP is exactly the same as the one that has hit the Tories.

    Payback for incompetence, perceived corruption, obsession with issues that have little agency in everyday lives and most of all the internal contradiction of trying to be too many things to too many different socio-economic, demographic and geographic groups. The fault lines emerge and then at election they fracture.

    Scotland needs a better choice of independence leaning parties. Scottish Labour in particular needs a more nuanced position, or else it will be cannibalised again in another 8-10 years time. The SNP could re-build under Forbes as the Tartan Tories of memory.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    RobD said:

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    On the last part... so it'll be binned next week?
    See COVID press conferences.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    https://x.com/SuzyJourno/status/1809484797380575269?t=jNB2cISLpyPC8PFx_yd-rQ&s=19
    Nige would have had 6 MPs if he hadnt pissed on the TUV deal
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    edited July 6

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    I do wonder, if Farage held parallel Press Conferences would the BBC report them equally in the interests of "balance"?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Pulpstar said:

    This might be good news for the world

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx824yl3ln4o

    I hope that's real and he doesn't get killed.

    I doubt the hardliners will just accept that and go quietly.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    They can use that £10m special room Johnson had constructed at No 10 for his weekly press events that never happened in the end.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    Hahahahahahha.

    There will be ten questions about Farage, a question about whether they have decided on what colour wallpaper they have chosen for the flat, has he made friends with Larry the cat, another question about whether he agrees with Farage about PR, and finally someone will try and ask him the big secret question - “Sir Keir, now the election is over and you are PM would you finally reveal what job your father did, our viewers are dying to know.”
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    boulay said:

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    Hahahahahahha.

    There will be ten questions about Farage, a question about whether they have decided on what colour wallpaper they have chosen for the flat, has he made friends with Larry the cat, another question about whether he agrees with Farage about PR, and finally someone will try and ask him the big secret question - “Sir Keir, now the election is over and you are PM would you finally reveal what job your father did, our viewers are dying to know.”
    We can but hope for an improvement in the media with an improvement in government....maybe I am too optimistic.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Fascinating header and let me add to the compliments and congratulations already expressed - you certainly had an interesting seat to stand in!

    One thing I've noticed in a few seats (like mine of Hove & Portslade) is that where there is virtually no LibD focus the candidate comes at or very near to the bottom of the poll - in this case below Reform & the Palestine independent. Seems like you can have either Greens OR LibDems.....
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    edited July 6

    For me the hurricane that has eventually hit the SNP is exactly the same as the one that has hit the Tories.

    Payback for incompetence, perceived corruption, obsession with issues that have little agency in everyday lives and most of all the internal contradiction of trying to be too many things to too many different socio-economic, demographic and geographic groups. The fault lines emerge and then at election they fracture.

    Scotland needs a better choice of independence leaning parties. Scottish Labour in particular needs a more nuanced position, or else it will be cannibalised again in another 8-10 years time. The SNP could re-build under Forbes as the Tartan Tories of memory.

    The volatility of Scottish politics is absurd but results from both the SNP and Labour having very evenly spread support right across the central belt. It seems the something like 30 seats swing together which, out of 57, is ridiculous.

    As for other independence supporting parties, the best result for Alba was 1.5% of the vote. Even their sitting MPs got less than that. Many Alba supporters (see Wings, esp BTL) think that the destruction of the SNP is a necessary step for something better to come along. But I don't think it will be Alba.

  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733

    https://x.com/SuzyJourno/status/1809484797380575269?t=jNB2cISLpyPC8PFx_yd-rQ&s=19
    Nige would have had 6 MPs if he hadnt pissed on the TUV deal

    I think he'll make NF eat shit and then forgive. I don’t imagine it's too much fun on your own.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    Pulpstar said:

    This might be good news for the world

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx824yl3ln4o

    I hope that's real and he doesn't get killed.

    I doubt the hardliners will just accept that and go quietly.
    That's a deeply depressing analysis of the state of British politics!

    ( I'm not being serious. That is a good point Casino)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 6

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    I do wonder, if Farage held parallel Press Conferences would the BBC report them equally in the interests of "balance"?
    I thought he was boycotting the BBC...it will be interesting to see how he plays his new platform. I can see him continuing to do the rallies ala Trump, but will the media hold him to account or just play this rantings for clicks?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733
    Good news about Iran.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    edited July 6

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Agreed, they should be asking people to join the list now without it being a solid commitment so that the potential candidates can be helped, advised, kept in the loop, listened to by the party.

    They should be looking for people who live in each constituency and try and identify those who are involved in the community and again give them financial and physical support to start building networks now by going to events, getting involved in local campaigns etc.

    Make sure that at the next election voters aren’t just voting for a party they are voting for someone they have seen and heard which will lessen the incumbency advantage.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    It's Saturday. It's the weekend. It is also the sabbath for those excited or exercised by Starmer's embrace of his family's inner Judaism. It is Andy & Emma together at Wimbledon. It is the Eclipse at Sandown. It is England against Switzerland.

    It is not a day for stupid political gimmicks.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    It's Saturday. It's the weekend. It is also the sabbath for those excited or exercised by Starmer's embrace of his family's inner Judaism. It is Andy & Emma together at Wimbledon. It is the Eclipse at Sandown. It is England against Switzerland.

    It is not a day for stupid political gimmicks.
    Somebody got out of the bed the wrong side ;-)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    2 penalties now missed by Marcus Smith. You can't do that against the All Blacks.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    It's Saturday. It's the weekend. It is also the sabbath for those excited or exercised by Starmer's embrace of his family's inner Judaism. It is Andy & Emma together at Wimbledon. It is the Eclipse at Sandown. It is England against Switzerland.

    It is not a day for stupid political gimmicks.
    You don’t have to watch it.
    I won’t be bothering either, but it’s an interesting commitment to make. Let’s see how long it lasts.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Mr. boulay, I agree, but that may depend on the next leader.

    The Conservatives need to make the right choice. Recent history suggests this may not be likely. Though I have no idea how good or bad most of the lost MPs were.

    Mr. JohnL, a real patriot would've mentioned qualifying at the British Grand Prix :p
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    It's Saturday. It's the weekend. It is also the sabbath for those excited or exercised by Starmer's embrace of his family's inner Judaism. It is Andy & Emma together at Wimbledon. It is the Eclipse at Sandown. It is England against Switzerland.

    It is not a day for stupid political gimmicks.
    Somebody got out of the bed the wrong side ;-)
    I speak for the nation. Has Starmer inherited Rishi's Number 10 advisers who do not know that political journalists were up more than 24 hours covering election day and the count?
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    edited July 6

    boulay said:

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    Hahahahahahha.

    There will be ten questions about Farage, a question about whether they have decided on what colour wallpaper they have chosen for the flat, has he made friends with Larry the cat, another question about whether he agrees with Farage about PR, and finally someone will try and ask him the big secret question - “Sir Keir, now the election is over and you are PM would you finally reveal what job your father did, our viewers are dying to know.”
    We can but hope for an improvement in the media with an improvement in government....maybe I am too optimistic.
    No chance, my fuzzy brain is trying to remember what I heard this morning on Today where the political correspondent was talking about something to do with a Tory and he used a word or phrase that was so overly dramatic and actually wrong where I wanted to throw something at the TV. It was just a classic of political media trying to make a story exciting or scandalous or bitchy insider backstabbing instead of reporting it factually rather than adding layers of dramatic language.

    The political media need a clear out as much as politicians as until you have the media asking the right questions, analysing the details and facts, ignoring the gossip and shit stirring then politics will never be serious and politicians will get away with bad behaviour as they are in the game with the media.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    2 penalties now missed by Marcus Smith. You can't do that against the All Blacks.

    And a conversion now.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    For me the hurricane that has eventually hit the SNP is exactly the same as the one that has hit the Tories.

    Payback for incompetence, perceived corruption, obsession with issues that have little agency in everyday lives and most of all the internal contradiction of trying to be too many things to too many different socio-economic, demographic and geographic groups. The fault lines emerge and then at election they fracture.

    Scotland needs a better choice of independence leaning parties. Scottish Labour in particular needs a more nuanced position, or else it will be cannibalised again in another 8-10 years time. The SNP could re-build under Forbes as the Tartan Tories of memory.

    What has been interesting is that the abusive cybernats are SNP supporters. The ones who are less aggressive are Alba supporters - the only aggression is when you mistake them for the SNP.

    If you think about it, the SNP has to be the broadest of tents when INDEPENDENCE is the only shared currency. Its very clear that the top down centralising socially out there tendencies of the SNP drive a lot of independence supporters absolutely nuts.

    What the SNP do now will determine if they are still even relevant by the time we get to 2026. We've just had an election campaign where nobody was listening to anything the party in government were saying. I think a rerun of that in 2026 is easily possible, especially if (when?) the SNP arrogantly assume people will have to back them because otherwise not to back them is to be against Scotland. That schtick didn't stick this time.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    It's Saturday. It's the weekend. It is also the sabbath for those excited or exercised by Starmer's embrace of his family's inner Judaism. It is Andy & Emma together at Wimbledon. It is the Eclipse at Sandown. It is England against Switzerland.

    It is not a day for stupid political gimmicks.
    Somebody got out of the bed the wrong side ;-)
    I speak for the nation. Has Starmer inherited Rishi's Number 10 advisers who do not know that political journalists were up more than 24 hours covering election day and the count?
    That makes me more onboard getting them to sit through a really boring press conference....
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727

    2 penalties now missed by Marcus Smith. You can't do that against the All Blacks.

    So he has achieved the impossible already?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    boulay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Agreed, they should be asking people to join the list now without it being a solid commitment so that the potential candidates can be helped, advised, kept in the loop, listened to by the party.

    They should be looking for people who live in each constituency and try and identify those who are involved in the community and again give them financial and physical support to start building networks now by going to events, getting involved in local campaigns etc.

    Make sure that at the next election voters aren’t just voting for a party they are voting for someone they have seen and heard which will lessen the incumbency advantage.
    That actually has similarities to Ed Miliband's "Community Organising" approach.
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    northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,637

    For me the hurricane that has eventually hit the SNP is exactly the same as the one that has hit the Tories.

    Payback for incompetence, perceived corruption, obsession with issues that have little agency in everyday lives and most of all the internal contradiction of trying to be too many things to too many different socio-economic, demographic and geographic groups. The fault lines emerge and then at election they fracture.

    Scotland needs a better choice of independence leaning parties. Scottish Labour in particular needs a more nuanced position, or else it will be cannibalised again in another 8-10 years time. The SNP could re-build under Forbes as the Tartan Tories of memory.

    What has been interesting is that the abusive cybernats are SNP supporters. The ones who are less aggressive are Alba supporters - the only aggression is when you mistake them for the SNP.

    If you think about it, the SNP has to be the broadest of tents when INDEPENDENCE is the only shared currency. Its very clear that the top down centralising socially out there tendencies of the SNP drive a lot of independence supporters absolutely nuts.

    What the SNP do now will determine if they are still even relevant by the time we get to 2026. We've just had an election campaign where nobody was listening to anything the party in government were saying. I think a rerun of that in 2026 is easily possible, especially if (when?) the SNP arrogantly assume people will have to back them because otherwise not to back them is to be against Scotland. That schtick didn't stick this time.
    Thanks for the header mate and the insights throughout the campaign. Glad you’ve enjoyed the experience :)
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    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,584
    DavidL said:

    For me the hurricane that has eventually hit the SNP is exactly the same as the one that has hit the Tories.

    Payback for incompetence, perceived corruption, obsession with issues that have little agency in everyday lives and most of all the internal contradiction of trying to be too many things to too many different socio-economic, demographic and geographic groups. The fault lines emerge and then at election they fracture.

    Scotland needs a better choice of independence leaning parties. Scottish Labour in particular needs a more nuanced position, or else it will be cannibalised again in another 8-10 years time. The SNP could re-build under Forbes as the Tartan Tories of memory.

    The volatility of Scottish politics is absurd but results from both the SNP and Labour having very evenly spread support right across the central belt. It seems the something like 30 seats swing together which, out of 57, is ridiculous.

    As for other independence supporting parties, the best result for Alba was 1.5% of the vote. Even their sitting MPs got less than that. Many Alba supporters (see Wings, esp BTL) think that the destruction of the SNP is a necessary step for something better to come along. But I don't think it will be Alba.

    Alba is in a fix. It gets attention it wouldn't otherwise receive because it's led by Alex Salmond for whom it works as a platform. But he's electorally toxic. And leftie indy supporters have the Greens as an alternative anyway.
    Alba is really just a cul de sac.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    2 penalties now missed by Marcus Smith. You can't do that against the All Blacks.

    And a conversion now.
    Doesn’t matter. Looks like we are thrashing them according to the guardian.


  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 6
    boulay said:

    2 penalties now missed by Marcus Smith. You can't do that against the All Blacks.

    And a conversion now.
    Doesn’t matter. Looks like we are thrashing them according to the guardian.


    LOL. The Gruadian being the Gruadian....
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Sack Ric Holden by lunchtime and put someone in charge of candidates and getting quality in to 350 winnable seats with promising up and commers in to the next 150. DRoss and Holden can fight two of the Liverpool seats next time
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    For me the hurricane that has eventually hit the SNP is exactly the same as the one that has hit the Tories.

    Payback for incompetence, perceived corruption, obsession with issues that have little agency in everyday lives and most of all the internal contradiction of trying to be too many things to too many different socio-economic, demographic and geographic groups. The fault lines emerge and then at election they fracture.

    Scotland needs a better choice of independence leaning parties. Scottish Labour in particular needs a more nuanced position, or else it will be cannibalised again in another 8-10 years time. The SNP could re-build under Forbes as the Tartan Tories of memory.

    What has been interesting is that the abusive cybernats are SNP supporters. The ones who are less aggressive are Alba supporters - the only aggression is when you mistake them for the SNP.

    If you think about it, the SNP has to be the broadest of tents when INDEPENDENCE is the only shared currency. Its very clear that the top down centralising socially out there tendencies of the SNP drive a lot of independence supporters absolutely nuts.

    What the SNP do now will determine if they are still even relevant by the time we get to 2026. We've just had an election campaign where nobody was listening to anything the party in government were saying. I think a rerun of that in 2026 is easily possible, especially if (when?) the SNP arrogantly assume people will have to back them because otherwise not to back them is to be against Scotland. That schtick didn't stick this time.
    Yes or no to Reform winning list seats at 'Rood?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    Safest conservatives seats in the country by majority %

    Richmond and Northallerton CON 25.11%
    Harrow East CON 24.45%
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763
    Pulpstar said:

    This might be good news for the world

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx824yl3ln4o

    Fuck Me he,s got a Brexit/Reform party sash.

    Does that say "Vote Farage" in Persian?
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,767

    The Nats are abusive?

    No, I refuse to believe it.

    I was devastated to see their joyous and civic politics reduced to 9 MPs.

    The SNP has descended into a fresh bout of infighting after John Swinney appeared to accept the disastrous election result had wiped out its mandate for an independence referendum.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-independence-labour-snp-general-election-pcmch2mn9

    Of course he's not going to accept that. It is all the SNP care about. And, like any hard nationalist party, they are bedevilled by nasty people. If you've spent years sharpening your claws on everyone around you, it's small wonder if you decide to use them on your own colleagues when subjected to the kind of drubbing which you are no longer used to.

    On which general topic, what do we think of Reform's chances of muscling their way into the devolved elections? Are they in with a shout of picking up list seats in Holyrood, presumably on a devosceptic platform? I know that the Scottish Greens are traditionally very weak at Westminster elections, and were thus in no danger of producing the kind of performances that the English party managed, but all the same Reform outpolled them by a long way.

    They were the third party by vote share in Wales, in an election where Tory support halved, so the election of a small Reform bloc in the Senedd seems likely at this stage.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727
    LD path to electoral success under FPTP.

    1. Wait for Tories to be unpopular.
    2. Hope Labour don't pick a nutter.

    If either of those conditions isn't met they struggle to get 20 seats. When they are both met they should be getting 40+. What they do themselves doesn't matter much.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423
    edited July 6
    Point of information on the header.

    The chosen conveyance of SNP leadership is Niesmann + Bischoff ‘iSmove’

    This can be configured for a maximum of seating for 5 when on the road.

    So that would be “Two campervans for the SNP”
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    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,584

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    He would have walked it. This is the absurdity of what the Tories did to themselves.

    Even more absurdly the SNP then decided that they would walk it, and got increasingly upset that their own support was fading.

    They won the seat, but with less votes and a lower percentage than last time…
    It will be interesting to see how David Duguid plays this. If we wants to return to the Commons in 5 years time he'll walk it. The new SNP MP is a very poor fit for the constituency. An Irish Sinn Fein supporter by all accounts.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    I am glad we did not lose you to Parliament
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
    Your old campaigning ground of Derbyshire NE had an almost identical result in 2024 to that in 2015:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    While Bolsover has had a 6% swing to the Conservatives despite the Conservatives losing 210 MPs over the decade.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolsover_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    The likely Conservative gains in 2029 are going to include some non-standard places.

    I wonder when the Conservatives will realise that and what it will do to their strategy and policy ideas.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    He would have walked it. This is the absurdity of what the Tories did to themselves.

    Even more absurdly the SNP then decided that they would walk it, and got increasingly upset that their own support was fading.

    They won the seat, but with less votes and a lower percentage than last time…
    Excellent effort and really respect your standing but dear god what has happened to you.

    "Less votes"

    Forget your mum and dad, politics really does f*ck you up.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    They should.
    But will they be able consistently to attract candidates like @RochdalePioneers to apply, in their current state ? What’s the project they’d be signing up for ?
    What does the party actually stand for at the moment ?

    Those questions aren’t snark - clearly there is a place and a need for a coherent party for conservatives. They are question which need answering by whoever is the next leader.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    boulay said:

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    Hahahahahahha.

    There will be ten questions about Farage, a question about whether they have decided on what colour wallpaper they have chosen for the flat, has he made friends with Larry the cat, another question about whether he agrees with Farage about PR, and finally someone will try and ask him the big secret question - “Sir Keir, now the election is over and you are PM would you finally reveal what job your father did, our viewers are dying to know.”
    We can but hope for an improvement in the media with an improvement in government....maybe I am too optimistic.
    The BBC need to go back to reporting the News rather than trying to generate the news. I hope the new Culture Secretary can dispose of Davie and his cohort but replace them with genuinely independent voices. It worked with Chris Patten despite his being an ex-Conservative Minister.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    They should.
    But will they be able consistently to attract candidates like @RochdalePioneers to apply, in their current state ? What’s the project they’d be signing up for ?
    What does the party actually stand for at the moment ?

    Those questions aren’t snark - clearly there is a place and a need for a coherent party for conservatives. They are question which need answering by whoever is the next leader.
    They need funding too. It was really noticeable how little money they managed to raise for the GE campaign. I wonder how many close seats they lost because they had no money to do good targeted advertising like in 2015.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Pulpstar said:

    Safest conservatives seats in the country by majority %

    Richmond and Northallerton CON 25.11%
    Harrow East CON 24.45%

    Well R&N will be looking for a new candidate.

    A nice prize for someone.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    edited July 6

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
    Your old campaigning ground of Derbyshire NE had an almost identical result in 2024 to that in 2015:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    While Bolsover has had a 6% swing to the Conservatives despite the Conservatives losing 210 MPs over the decade.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolsover_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    The likely Conservative gains in 2029 are going to include some non-standard places.

    I wonder when the Conservatives will realise that and what it will do to their strategy and policy ideas.
    Darlington, Redcar, Middlesborough South, the Stocktons need to figure in alongside Bolsover, Rother Valley etc and they need a fairly radical NW strategy
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    edited July 6

    boulay said:

    Sir Keir Starmer will hold his first press conference as Prime Minister later today. As reported by the BBC, Sir Keir will take questions from the nation’s media on his first full day in Downing Street. It comes as part of an attempt to signify a change of style and place an emphasis on accountability in the first part of his tenure.

    It will be interesting if he sticks with this. Several PMs started with this and slowly became not a thing. I think it is good that a PM does these, as long as we don't get the twatish media asking totally twatish questions all the time.

    Hahahahahahha.

    There will be ten questions about Farage, a question about whether they have decided on what colour wallpaper they have chosen for the flat, has he made friends with Larry the cat, another question about whether he agrees with Farage about PR, and finally someone will try and ask him the big secret question - “Sir Keir, now the election is over and you are PM would you finally reveal what job your father did, our viewers are dying to know.”
    We can but hope for an improvement in the media with an improvement in government....maybe I am too optimistic.
    The BBC need to go back to reporting the News rather than trying to generate the news. I hope the new Culture Secretary can dispose of Davie and his cohort but replace them with genuinely independent voices. It worked with Chris Patten despite his being an ex-Conservative Minister.
    Its being going on a long long time now, way before Davie. 24hrs news, you need to keep moving the story forward, so its all about generating a new angle every few hours. And of course with YouTube etc, all traditional media are in a constant battle for clicks and attention, and the talent can now bugger off and do their own podcast for the money if they start to garner a name.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157
    edited July 6
    Well done RP. One of the more interesting contests in this election, and Scotland remains an enigma. Will the SNP revert to a rural party under Forbes? Will we see the Scottish Greens supplant them? How thin is Labour's support in the central belt? Will indy support continue to be resilient?

    You are lucky enough to live in one of the more beautiful parts of Scotland. That will make up for the loss!
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 6
    Thanks for the header.

    - The cybernats called me a nonce. A twat. A wanker. A gype. A rocket. A cnut. A colonialist.

    Were you riding a bicycle? :wink:
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    edited July 6

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
    Your old campaigning ground of Derbyshire NE had an almost identical result in 2024 to that in 2015:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    While Bolsover has had a 6% swing to the Conservatives despite the Conservatives losing 210 MPs over the decade.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolsover_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    The likely Conservative gains in 2029 are going to include some non-standard places.

    I wonder when the Conservatives will realise that and what it will do to their strategy and policy ideas.
    Someone pointed out that Oxfordshire now has no Tory MP for the first time in two centuries. The political map has shifted a bit.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited July 6

    Liberal Democrats stick to seats like shit to a stick, though, so if I were the Tories I'd be fighting back on the ground from, like, today.

    It took bloody ages and a lot of hard work over almost two decades to evict them all last time.

    The strategic challenge for the LibDems is an interesting one.

    That they'll do the usual, and dig in heavily with local campaigning goes without saying. Those new MPs that don't have LibDem councils may well do so in four years time. And some of them have a decent Labour vote in their seats, which will be easy to squeeze especially if the shine comes off the new government. Meanwhile I notice that 20% of Devon LibDem county councillors are now MPs...

    The default case is that, as and when the Tories recover some popularity (which will take some time), a good slice of the LibDem MPs will be swept away. And the big risk is that the government becomes unpopular, because while when Tory governments are hated, many will vote LibDem, when Labour governments are hated, they won't. The LibDems actually need the new government, broadly, to succeed, or at least not to fail, and wait until its fading prospects get them interested again in electoral reform.

    But it doesn't have to be that way? Consider what appeals to default Home Counties Tories, like my parents who like many habitual Tories saw themselves as essentially non-political. They want politicians who are sensible and prudent, responsible, with good integrity, who will keep the plates spinning efficiently, defend the status quo not only of their economics but also of things they value such as the local environment and British institutions, and who are not diverted by ideology into wasting money or changing stuff just to break it. Yes, there's patriotism and some nationalism on top, but the nature of that is changing as the boomer generation moves to the graveyard and the broader-minded children of the later 20th century take their place.

    The Tories have trashed their brand in so many of these aspects, and put themselves on the wrong side of the argument for many southern voters, such that it's becoming the default that someone middle class and well-educated nowadays usually won't be a Conservative voter. Whereas the LibDems' pitch is more than half way there already. Yes, their social progressiveness has sometimes been ahead of the curve, but as the generations turn over this will fade away as an issue.

    During the coalition, LibDems showed that they were the sensible ones, whereas it was the Tory ministers who were forever having to worry about managing their party and heading off the blinkered ideologues behind them. I found the same during my four years in coalition with them; we were the steady hands.

    Generational shifts in electoral geography do happen - as the Tories have found in many of England's cities or in Scotland, both of which the Tories were able in good times to dominate, back in history.

    Will the LibDems be able to re-invent themselves as the party of the Home Counties for the next generation? It's not impossible. You could help us by directing the Tories to spending the coming years fighting each other and trying to be more right-wing than Reform....

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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,733

    Pulpstar said:

    This might be good news for the world

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx824yl3ln4o

    Fuck Me he,s got a Brexit/Reform party sash.

    Does that say "Vote Farage" in Persian?
    He insists he's not a Faragist shill.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 11,138

    Pulpstar said:

    Safest conservatives seats in the country by majority %

    Richmond and Northallerton CON 25.11%
    Harrow East CON 24.45%

    Well R&N will be looking for a new candidate.

    A nice prize for someone.
    I predict a LD win in a by election. A second attempt after the screw up of the SDP/Liberal fall out over the last by election here.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,449
    I was reflecting on the "new PM" situation this morning.

    I've now been alive under the following prime ministers

    Heath
    Wilson
    Callaghan<-- I start remembering them from here
    Thatcher
    Major <-- I started voting for them here
    Blair
    Brown
    Cameron <-- I next voted for a winning PM here
    May
    Johnson
    Truss
    Sunak
    Starmer <-- And again here

    Of that entire list, regardless of what you think of the value or unintended consequences of what they did, IMHO the only ones who achieved anything of lasting *intentionally positive* note while in power were:

    Thatcher (economic reform)
    Major (architecture of the NI Peace Process)
    Blair (Good Friday Agreement)

    Wilson misses out because his "escape from the 50s" policies happened before I was born. Heath misses out likewise on the EEC.

    Much of my adult life has been spent in the era of style over substance. Cowardice and focus groups.

    Let's see where we go from here.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
    Your old campaigning ground of Derbyshire NE had an almost identical result in 2024 to that in 2015:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    While Bolsover has had a 6% swing to the Conservatives despite the Conservatives losing 210 MPs over the decade.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolsover_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    The likely Conservative gains in 2029 are going to include some non-standard places.

    I wonder when the Conservatives will realise that and what it will do to their strategy and policy ideas.
    Darlington, Redcar, Middlesborough South, the Stocktons need to figure in alongside Bolsover, Rother Valley etc and they need a fairly radical NW strategy
    One idea would be to give Reform a free run in Sunderland/Durham etc in return for standing down round here and other close seconds.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    From one election 🇬🇧 to another 🇫🇷

    Final polls before tomorrow’s 2nd round of potentially cataclysmic French elections suggest the Far Right will fall far short of an overall majority in the National Assembly. Can we trust the polls? They are either all right or all wrong 1/

    Final surveys by four organisations before polls were banned at midnightgive the Far Right and allies a range between 170 and 215 seats – more than 80 short of an overall majority (289 seats) 2/

    Final surveys last night suggest that there may now even be an overall majority of seats for a “rainbow” coalition stretching from moderate left & greens, through Macron’s centre to the ex-Gaullist centre right. Whether such an unFrench coalition could fly is open to question 4/

    https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1809495144204206288

    Withdrawal of candidates to stop Le Pens lot working? Buy resulting in them clearly being the most popular and only a fractious alliance to stop them?

    With the presidential election in a few years Le Pen may not mind that.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,330
    Pulpstar said:

    This might be good news for the world

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx824yl3ln4o

    Indeed, it might. But Iran is only a limited democracy: candidates have to be vetted by a religious council before they can stand. I am therefore slightly suspicious that he might just have been put in there to look good to the outside world, whilst not really changing anything.

    Then there's the issue (as noted below) that he has relatively limited power compared to the Supreme Dickhead Leader.

    But if he does constrain the morality police (I know a funny story about their predecessors...), and especially if he halts Iran's help to Russia, then it'd be great.

    The latter's an interesting one. It could be a rather large 'gift' in negotiations to renew the nuclear deal and ease sanctions.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 79,291
    And New Zealand back in front. Those missed kicks by England, shakes head.
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    WildernessPt2WildernessPt2 Posts: 150

    Pulpstar said:

    This might be good news for the world

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx824yl3ln4o

    Fuck Me he,s got a Brexit/Reform party sash.

    Does that say "Vote Farage" in Persian?
    There's a poor record in the middle east when people who hold medical degrees take charge.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    Of course, the biggest downside of not taking the seat for RP is missing out on weekly trips to/from London on the Sleeper.

    Just think of all that 73 and 92 mileage that would have been available.

    There must be a lot of new MPs who were not really expecting to win, now thinking of how much their lives are about to change. Plus the impact on their families.

    Then there are the losers thinking "What do I do now?"
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Brilliant - well done Rochdale!

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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,449
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
    Your old campaigning ground of Derbyshire NE had an almost identical result in 2024 to that in 2015:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    While Bolsover has had a 6% swing to the Conservatives despite the Conservatives losing 210 MPs over the decade.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolsover_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    The likely Conservative gains in 2029 are going to include some non-standard places.

    I wonder when the Conservatives will realise that and what it will do to their strategy and policy ideas.
    Darlington, Redcar, Middlesborough South, the Stocktons need to figure in alongside Bolsover, Rother Valley etc and they need a fairly radical NW strategy
    One idea would be to give Reform a free run in Sunderland/Durham etc in return for standing down round here and other close seconds.
    The Tories need to fight Reform tooth and nail, pointing out the vacuity of their policies and weakness of their leaders. If they cede them any ground, they are consigning themselves to the bin.

    They also need to work incredibly hard in the constituencies in which reform have MPs - pointing out how little they do for them, picking up such casework-type slack as they have access to, championing local issues. Knocking out the leadership at the next election will finish Reform off for this cycle.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    He would have walked it. This is the absurdity of what the Tories did to themselves.

    Even more absurdly the SNP then decided that they would walk it, and got increasingly upset that their own support was fading.

    They won the seat, but with less votes and a lower percentage than last time…
    It will be interesting to see how David Duguid plays this. If we wants to return to the Commons in 5 years time he'll walk it. The new SNP MP is a very poor fit for the constituency. An Irish Sinn Fein supporter by all accounts.
    If Duguid runs he'll likely push 55% imo, it will be in the 'very safe' seat quadrant (if the Tories have avoided melting down in opposition!) - although very possible 'plan Murdo' will have formally divorced the southern and northern blues by then
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
    Your old campaigning ground of Derbyshire NE had an almost identical result in 2024 to that in 2015:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    While Bolsover has had a 6% swing to the Conservatives despite the Conservatives losing 210 MPs over the decade.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolsover_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    The likely Conservative gains in 2029 are going to include some non-standard places.

    I wonder when the Conservatives will realise that and what it will do to their strategy and policy ideas.
    Darlington, Redcar, Middlesborough South, the Stocktons need to figure in alongside Bolsover, Rother Valley etc and they need a fairly radical NW strategy
    Hyndburn was another constituency where they did surprisingly well in.

    As was Ynys Mon.

    I wonder if the quality of the MPs was part of the reason.

    While the bad apples get the publicity there are also some good ones there as well - Alexander Stafford in Rother Valley seemed very active.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    pigeon said:

    The Nats are abusive?

    No, I refuse to believe it.

    I was devastated to see their joyous and civic politics reduced to 9 MPs.

    The SNP has descended into a fresh bout of infighting after John Swinney appeared to accept the disastrous election result had wiped out its mandate for an independence referendum.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-independence-labour-snp-general-election-pcmch2mn9

    Of course he's not going to accept that. It is all the SNP care about. And, like any hard nationalist party, they are bedevilled by nasty people. If you've spent years sharpening your claws on everyone around you, it's small wonder if you decide to use them on your own colleagues when subjected to the kind of drubbing which you are no longer used to.

    On which general topic, what do we think of Reform's chances of muscling their way into the devolved elections? Are they in with a shout of picking up list seats in Holyrood, presumably on a devosceptic platform? I know that the Scottish Greens are traditionally very weak at Westminster elections, and were thus in no danger of producing the kind of performances that the English party managed, but all the same Reform outpolled them by a long way.

    They were the third party by vote share in Wales, in an election where Tory support halved, so the election of a small Reform bloc in the Senedd seems likely at this stage.
    The Senedd had UKIP members until pretty recently, Reform getting in especially with the Tories collapsed sounds likely.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
    Your old campaigning ground of Derbyshire NE had an almost identical result in 2024 to that in 2015:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    While Bolsover has had a 6% swing to the Conservatives despite the Conservatives losing 210 MPs over the decade.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolsover_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    The likely Conservative gains in 2029 are going to include some non-standard places.

    I wonder when the Conservatives will realise that and what it will do to their strategy and policy ideas.
    Darlington, Redcar, Middlesborough South, the Stocktons need to figure in alongside Bolsover, Rother Valley etc and they need a fairly radical NW strategy
    One idea would be to give Reform a free run in Sunderland/Durham etc in return for standing down round here and other close seconds.
    Non aggression pact a la StarmerDavey
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Pulpstar said:

    This might be good news for the world

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx824yl3ln4o

    Fuck Me he,s got a Brexit/Reform party sash.

    Does that say "Vote Farage" in Persian?
    There's a poor record in the middle east when people who hold medical degrees take charge.
    How many of them are there? Assad and ?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    edited July 6
    ...

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
    Your old campaigning ground of Derbyshire NE had an almost identical result in 2024 to that in 2015:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    While Bolsover has had a 6% swing to the Conservatives despite the Conservatives losing 210 MPs over the decade.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolsover_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    The likely Conservative gains in 2029 are going to include some non-standard places.

    I wonder when the Conservatives will realise that and what it will do to their strategy and policy ideas.
    Darlington, Redcar, Middlesborough South, the Stocktons need to figure in alongside Bolsover, Rother Valley etc and they need a fairly radical NW strategy
    The RedWall is now the BlueWall, albeit with two shades of blue. To win these people over you have to pander to populism and "othering", although Farage is better at that than your Party are. Besides that doesn't return the Lib Dem BlueWall seats to you. I wonder in the same way once safe Labour seats are lost forever whether that might also be true of the LibDem gains in the Home Counties. Johnson's loutish behaviour didn't go down well in genteel Buckinghamshire.

    And did anyone see Steve Baker's meltdown on GMB, blaming Ozzie and Balls for his defeat? Nurse, Nurse over here quickly please!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    We give MPs and those who confess to wanting to be MPs a lot stick, but it's nice to see one admit to enjoying the experience and being positive about things.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946

    ...

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Thanks Rochdale

    ANME clearly shows the importance of candidate selection. It was more than anything a vote against Douglas Ross attempting to carpet-bag. Duguid would have won comfortably.

    The Conservatives should almost focus on nothing else but high-quality candidate selection.

    No way James Arbuthnot would have lost Hampshire North East either.
    Can be difficult to get seats back from the Lib Dems once they're in, they (2015 excepted !) normally don't have to deal with the mucky business of government. The seat you really want next time round as a Tory candidate is Truss' old one - that to my mind is the easiest Con Gain of 2029 or whenever right now.
    Your old campaigning ground of Derbyshire NE had an almost identical result in 2024 to that in 2015:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Derbyshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    While Bolsover has had a 6% swing to the Conservatives despite the Conservatives losing 210 MPs over the decade.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolsover_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    The likely Conservative gains in 2029 are going to include some non-standard places.

    I wonder when the Conservatives will realise that and what it will do to their strategy and policy ideas.
    Darlington, Redcar, Middlesborough South, the Stocktons need to figure in alongside Bolsover, Rother Valley etc and they need a fairly radical NW strategy
    The RedWall is now the BlueWall, albeit with two shades of blue. To win these people over you pander to populism and "othering" although Farage is better at that than your Party are. Besides that doesn't return the Lib Dem BlueWall seats to you. I wonder in the same way once safe Labour seats are lost forever whether that might also be true of the LibDem gains in the Home Counties. Johnson's loutish behaviour didn't go well in genteel Buckinghamshire.

    And did anyone see Steve Baker's meltdown on GMB, blaming Ozzie and Balls for his defeat? Nurse, Nurse over here quickly please!
    They aren't my party, i have no party
This discussion has been closed.