Taking a while to give us the details from Inverness etc. What’s happening?
SKY jumped the gun earlier and said the LDs had gained the seat! Then they reverted to "result to come in"!
AIUI the Lib Dems have claimed it and the SNP candidate has conceded, at least informally.
It's just a matter of how many days it takes for the relevant authorities to sort out whatever mess they've made during the count. One imagines that some kind of inquest will follow.
What would a non-destroyed party have gotten - 640 MPs?
Whilst I agree, there's something in this.
If you get votes entirely on silence, negativity and tedious tactical triangulation (which is Starmer all over) you have no depth to fall back on when the tide goes out on you.
In 2029 Labour will be judged almost exclusively on what they have done in the previous 5 years. You have prejudged their performance and you may well prove to be correct but I believe a majority have a more open mind at this stage.
Welly wanging, crockery smashing, tombola, dog with the waggiest tail, real ale tent, rain, tea and cakes, and pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey.
It's essentially the most unbelievably English thing ever.
And they all voted LibDem.
Enjoy!
I wouldn't count on it. I once left a gig at the Cambridge Folk Festival because it developed a disturbing "this country was better without the furriners" tone.
The SDP achieved a pretty shocking 33811 votes in 122 constituencies. I'd have expected that with some high profile media supporters they might have done a bit better. No wonder there was no candidate where I live.
One word: Farage. Reform went overnight from being a protest vote the SDP could compete with to being a massively larger contender (and certainly with a lot more media coverage and money). The SDP and Reform have two very different agendas (though very similar on immigration) but are operating in the same "small party challenger" space. The SDP's aim was to finish sixth in England - as it was, Farage returned to Reform which surged and they finished seventh behind Galloway. Clouston has spoken of it taking 20 years for the SDP to get back into Parliament - they are only 6 years into the project which started in 2018.
For Goodwin fans he's been on Any Questions on R4.
What a dreadful man.
Certainly it’s hard to believe that someone with such strident views could manage or commission an impartial poll. And we’ve just seen the polls he did commission turn to dust. One to ignore going forward, I think?
The Tories’ problem is that they have multiple false prophets like him circulating the smoking crater into which they just impacted.
Didn't Goodwin change horses mid race? A reluctant Conservative who became a raging Reformer once Farage (rhymes with garage) threw his hat into the ring.
I don't remember him ever backing the Tories. He has effectively been boosting Reform during the campaign which seemed a bit odd given he was doing polling too.
We are seeing tariffs and subsidies more and more undermining free trade. This is a consequence of the US deliberate sabotage of the WTO which really got going under Trump but has continued without a break under Biden. Last week 4 decisions were made against the US but all will be appealed to an appellate court which is not quorate because the US vetoes the appointment of new judges.
Tariffs aren’t an unusual - or irrational - response to major paradigm changes in basic industries like car manufacturing.
China has bought a multi year lead on the west through $2-300bn in subsidies to the battery/EV industries. You can’t really criticise them for doing what’s essential if they’re going to get to grips with their own CO2 emissions - but that doesn’t mean our rolling over and playing dead. We should be thinking about whether we could make similar kinds of a deals.
Despite having no wellies to wang, I am relaxing in my favourite hotel bar with PB, coffee, and Jimmy Page covering a Peter Green song at high volume on the headphones. I hope everyone else is enjoying their Saturday.
We are seeing tariffs and subsidies more and more undermining free trade. This is a consequence of the US deliberate sabotage of the WTO which really got going under Trump but has continued without a break under Biden. Last week 4 decisions were made against the US but all will be appealed to an appellate court which is not quorate because the US vetoes the appointment of new judges.
China was exploiting the world trading system well before Trump. And it's now become patently clear that a lack of domestic manufacturing is a major security risk.
Oh sure, and personally I have always taken a rather more mercantilist view of trade than a free market purist. Free trade worked for us when the industrial revolution gave us huge inherent advantages. Since WW2 not so much and our membership of the SM in the EU seemed to do very little for our manufacturing, even if our services benefited.
It is just the way the world is now working and another example, along with Russia's illegal invasion and the cruelty of both sides in Gaza, of the rule of law breaking down.
Leaving the single market was actively damaging to our prospects for building new industries, though. Not least because we spent the last decade thinking and arguing only about the process of leaving, rather than actually managing our own affairs.
Sigh....first up BBC Political Editor Chris Mason who asks Starmer if he has unpacked, found his way around Downing Street ...
Oh gods. I'm sure he's been there before.
Why would he have been in the personal flat part of the building before?
The quote as stated (I am not watching it) was 'found his way around Downing Street', which is more than the personal flat.
And if the question was about the personal flat that's still stupid, why would have have trouble finding his way around even a sizeable flat?
"Have you found where the bathroom is yet?" would be a really dumb question.
Downing Street is, contrary to impressions, huge, with a warren of rooms for different purposes. I’m not saying it’s top investigative journalism, but it’s not a completely dumb question.
I highly doubt the British public care though. What we want to know is what is Starmer planning to do, not if he has found the bogs yet. This was literally the first question of the press conference not some filler at the end.
New at Ten...top story tonight....Starmer admits toilets in #10 difficult to find.....10 mins in, Starmer agrees NHS is broken and states he will sort out the NHS mess by....he will also keep releasing prisoners for the moment as no space....
He’s been telling us what he plans to do for several weeks in the campaign. As someone said upthread, he’s not going to turn around and announce that he’s going to do something completely different now.
The guy’s been Prime Minister for one day. I don’t see some softball questions from the media as being some dire failure of journalism.
Now we want to know how and under what timeline....
The SDP achieved a pretty shocking 33811 votes in 122 constituencies. I'd have expected that with some high profile media supporters they might have done a bit better. No wonder there was no candidate where I live.
One word: Farage. Reform went overnight from being a protest vote the SDP could compete with to being a massively larger contender (and certainly with a lot more media coverage and money). The SDP and Reform have two very different agendas (though very similar on immigration) but are operating in the same "small party challenger" space. The SDP's aim was to finish sixth in England - as it was Reform surged and they finished seventh behind Galloway. Clouston has spoken of it taking 20 years for the SDP to get back into Parliament - they are only 6 years into the project which started in 2018.
I believe only a few SDP candidates got more than a derisory total - Cloutson the leader got 2.7%, Rod Liddle 4.8% in Midlesborough South etc (no Reform) and in Ed Milibands constituency the SDP saved their only deposit with 6.3% (no Reform). In the 4 Sheffield seats where Reform stood aside for them they failed to get over 3% and those 7 are the bulk of their effort
Are there any decent explanations yet of why of all the hundreds and hundreds of GE polls not one of them was anywhere close to the basic figure of the gap between Tory and Labour (10%).
Over the last 15 years, it seems like we have had the same question raised repeatedly. Maybe it is just really hard now to get truly representative samples. People don't have landlines / want to talk on the phone and the online panels are over represented by overly engaged / keen people.
Assume all don't know last time Tory voters return at the ballot box, exclude anyone under 25 from your sample and double count pensioners
I'd love to model this election with the Tories on 28% and Reform down to 10%.
That's what I think would have happened without Farage turning up and the betgate/D-Day stuff.
My guess is 170-180 seats was very achievable.
Doing that on EC you get: C166, L383, LD62, Ref 2, Green 3, SNP 11, PC 3
(I entered Con 29% and Ref 10.5% because EC wants GB % not UK.) EC gives quite a good approximation for the actual GB vote % results: C126, L412, LD67, Ref 8, Green 3, SNP 11, PC 3. So I think its model is quite robust.
Worth highlighting this, I think - Baxter's model worked very well for this election, certainly much better than UNS.
As for the polling failure, I expect we'll see yet more adjustments applied to raw data in the future.
I hope the pollsters will review the makeup of their panels; Verian's random probability sample may be worth replicating, as it seems they were the second most accurate pollster overall (albeit behind Norstat who used a traditional managed panel).
I quite like Sir Geoffrey Cox for next leader. He has a caretaker vibe to him, but could actually school SKS (as a considerably better barrister) at Prime Minister's Questions. He's a Brexiteer, but patrician enough to engender respect from the one nation faction, who are all pretty snobbish.
Now he's in opposition I'd assume he would be spending even more time on his legal work (before Starmer bans too much second job work or something), given how in demand he apparently is.
That would be high on my list if I were Starmer: No outside paid employment for MPs.
It's a no cost change that sends a good message to the country. I suspect it also stuffs chancers like Farage where it hurts.
Which might mean that any MP with professional qualifications would have to do outside work for free or have their qualifications lapse.
No you've hit the nail on the head. Voluntary work to keep the CPD going. Didn't Dr Rosena manage that during COVID?
Being an MP should be a full time job. If Farage wants to do his GeeBeebies job instead of sitting in Parliament he should gift them his time. They need the money anyway.
Apparently Reform is a company whose majority shareholder is a Mr N Farage.
So when he grifts cash from willing punters he can trousers the lot, less taxes? Luvvly jubbly!
Makes you wonder what will happen to the "short" money.
Yes, let's all concentrate on eliminating petty grift and second jobs, and keep in place stuff like Tony Blair giving tens of millions of pounds worth of Government contracts to Lawrence Ellison's Oracle, with Lawrence coincidentally later becoming a huge bankroller of Tony Blair's foundation. All so nice and above board.
very distracting, doesn't change my question does it?
The short money is to help setting up constituency offices and employing assistants, especially for small parties etc. I am sure that the Reform company can afford that all by itself.
Does the Reform company have to submit accounts to the electoral commission?
Few countries seemed grateful about their COVID response. Australia seemed to do pretty well all told in their COVID response particularly with big connection to China. They went very hard on the lockdown / isolation early, got vaccines and then opened up (so not like prison island of New Zealand that carried on too long and no vaccines). But even their government got absolute smashed in the nuts.
Exactly. The rule of thumb is pretty simple. If something bad happens on your watch you normally get the blame even if you are blameless.
Look at the polling. Johnson was popular during COVID and had a vaccine boost. It’s when Partygate starts coming out that his polling starts to slide, and basically the Tories’ polling never stopped sliding until maybe a week before the election.
I'm not saying those incidents had no effect, but there are lots of countries where post pandemic the incumbents have been booted out or punished irrespective of their success and behaviour during the pandemic. An unhappy electorate kicks the government of the day no matter what the cause of their unhappiness is.
The SDP achieved a pretty shocking 33811 votes in 122 constituencies. I'd have expected that with some high profile media supporters they might have done a bit better. No wonder there was no candidate where I live.
One word: Farage. Reform went overnight from being a protest vote the SDP could compete with to being a massively larger contender (and certainly with a lot more media coverage and money). The SDP and Reform have two very different agendas (though very similar on immigration) but are operating in the same "small party challenger" space. The SDP's aim was to finish sixth in England - as it was, Farage returned to Reform which surged and they finished seventh behind Galloway. Clouston has spoken of it taking 20 years for the SDP to get back into Parliament - they are only 6 years into the project which started in 2018.
I suspect Farage and Reform will implode long before the next election. My estimate would be around six months for the first major falling out between Farage and Tice. His track record for putting in the hard yards and inspiring the team operation that would be required to get from guerrilla campaign to mass movement (his explicit aim now) is not great.
The SDP achieved a pretty shocking 33811 votes in 122 constituencies. I'd have expected that with some high profile media supporters they might have done a bit better. No wonder there was no candidate where I live.
One word: Farage. Reform went overnight from being a protest vote the SDP could compete with to being a massively larger contender (and certainly with a lot more media coverage and money). The SDP and Reform have two very different agendas (though very similar on immigration) but are operating in the same "small party challenger" space. The SDP's aim was to finish sixth in England - as it was, Farage returned to Reform which surged and they finished seventh behind Galloway. Clouston has spoken of it taking 20 years for the SDP to get back into Parliament - they are only 6 years into the project which started in 2018.
I suspect Farage and Reform will implode long before the next election. My estimate would be around six months for the first major falling out between Farage and Tice. His track record for putting in the hard yards and inspiring the team operation that would be required to get from guerrilla campaign to mass movement (his explicit aim now) is not great.
I can foresee Farage having a row with Mr Speaker over something…… not being called maybe …… and getting himself suspended.
The SDP achieved a pretty shocking 33811 votes in 122 constituencies. I'd have expected that with some high profile media supporters they might have done a bit better. No wonder there was no candidate where I live.
One word: Farage. Reform went overnight from being a protest vote the SDP could compete with to being a massively larger contender (and certainly with a lot more media coverage and money). The SDP and Reform have two very different agendas (though very similar on immigration) but are operating in the same "small party challenger" space. The SDP's aim was to finish sixth in England - as it was, Farage returned to Reform which surged and they finished seventh behind Galloway. Clouston has spoken of it taking 20 years for the SDP to get back into Parliament - they are only 6 years into the project which started in 2018.
I suspect Farage and Reform will implode long before the next election. My estimate would be around six months for the first major falling out between Farage and Tice. His track record for putting in the hard yards and inspiring the team operation that would be required to get from guerrilla campaign to mass movement (his explicit aim now) is not great.
I can foresee Farage having a row with Mr Speaker over something…… not being called maybe …… and getting himself suspended.
In fact, I can see Farage deliberately engineering just such a martyrdom.
Are there any decent explanations yet of why of all the hundreds and hundreds of GE polls not one of them was anywhere close to the basic figure of the gap between Tory and Labour (10%).
The winner in this year's gold standard contest appears to be Norstat with a 13pt gap (Lab 37, Con 24, Ref 16, LD 11, Grn 6, SNP 4, Oth 2.) They got the Tories right and were one of the less over-optimistic pollsters for Labour. Honourable mention to Verian with Lab on 36%; People Polling for GBeebies also called Lab 36% but their Tory-Reform balance was hopelessly out. Nobody called Labour below 36% during the campaign, or at any point this year.
The key polling fail in this campaign period has clearly been this over-estimation of Labour, though other themes are the over-estimation of Reform, and an under-estimation of both the Liberal Democrats and of the independents and minor party candidates (4.3% of votes cast in GB this time, versus 1.0% in 2019.) Whether this is down to issues with how the pollsters weight their samples and variable likelihood to turn out I'm not sure, but it's likely something to do with that coupled with the unpredictable outbreak of pro-Gaza revolts against Labour. There have been over half-a-million votes for independents and in excess of 200,000 for Galloway's outfit on top of that. The Workers Party alone accounts for 0.7% of all votes cast, and it's a fair bet that virtually all of those are defections from Labour.
The SDP achieved a pretty shocking 33811 votes in 122 constituencies. I'd have expected that with some high profile media supporters they might have done a bit better. No wonder there was no candidate where I live.
One word: Farage. Reform went overnight from being a protest vote the SDP could compete with to being a massively larger contender (and certainly with a lot more media coverage and money). The SDP and Reform have two very different agendas (though very similar on immigration) but are operating in the same "small party challenger" space. The SDP's aim was to finish sixth in England - as it was, Farage returned to Reform which surged and they finished seventh behind Galloway. Clouston has spoken of it taking 20 years for the SDP to get back into Parliament - they are only 6 years into the project which started in 2018.
I suspect Farage and Reform will implode long before the next election. My estimate would be around six months for the first major falling out between Farage and Tice. His track record for putting in the hard yards and inspiring the team operation that would be required to get from guerrilla campaign to mass movement (his explicit aim now) is not great.
Farage and Tice hating each others guts and falling out was a consistent prediction during the campaign. It never happened then and I'm not sure why it should happen now. There will be plenty of other parliamentarians for Farage to pick fights with.
The SDP achieved a pretty shocking 33811 votes in 122 constituencies. I'd have expected that with some high profile media supporters they might have done a bit better. No wonder there was no candidate where I live.
One word: Farage. Reform went overnight from being a protest vote the SDP could compete with to being a massively larger contender (and certainly with a lot more media coverage and money). The SDP and Reform have two very different agendas (though very similar on immigration) but are operating in the same "small party challenger" space. The SDP's aim was to finish sixth in England - as it was, Farage returned to Reform which surged and they finished seventh behind Galloway. Clouston has spoken of it taking 20 years for the SDP to get back into Parliament - they are only 6 years into the project which started in 2018.
I suspect Farage and Reform will implode long before the next election. My estimate would be around six months for the first major falling out between Farage and Tice. His track record for putting in the hard yards and inspiring the team operation that would be required to get from guerrilla campaign to mass movement (his explicit aim now) is not great.
Farage and Tice hating each others guts and falling out was a consistent prediction during the campaign. It never happened then and I'm not sure why it should happen now. There will be plenty of other parliamentarians for Farage to pick fights with.
I agree that this seems the least likely of the implosions. The other MPs are more of an unknown quantity (to me at least).
The SDP achieved a pretty shocking 33811 votes in 122 constituencies. I'd have expected that with some high profile media supporters they might have done a bit better. No wonder there was no candidate where I live.
One word: Farage. Reform went overnight from being a protest vote the SDP could compete with to being a massively larger contender (and certainly with a lot more media coverage and money). The SDP and Reform have two very different agendas (though very similar on immigration) but are operating in the same "small party challenger" space. The SDP's aim was to finish sixth in England - as it was, Farage returned to Reform which surged and they finished seventh behind Galloway. Clouston has spoken of it taking 20 years for the SDP to get back into Parliament - they are only 6 years into the project which started in 2018.
I suspect Farage and Reform will implode long before the next election. My estimate would be around six months for the first major falling out between Farage and Tice. His track record for putting in the hard yards and inspiring the team operation that would be required to get from guerrilla campaign to mass movement (his explicit aim now) is not great.
Farage and Tice hating each others guts and falling out was a consistent prediction during the campaign. It never happened then and I'm not sure why it should happen now. There will be plenty of other parliamentarians for Farage to pick fights with.
Maintaining the self-discipline for a tactical truce for four/five weeks of campaigning is one thing, but keeping it going for the duration of a parliament quite another.
I just did a quick comparison of Workers versus other smaller parties in elections since 1992, in terms of votes per seat contested they are running at efficiency equivalent to or better than the Greens pre 2015, indeed they got 80% of the Green total vote in 2010 contesting half the number of seats. They are slightly behind UKIP 2010 or 2017 (Lord Pearson and Paul Nuttall variants) and fairly close to Farages Brexit Party 2019, somewhat behind the foul 2010 BNP and a good way short of 2015 UKIP or the Greens 2015 to date. That does suggest they have some capacity to reach 2 to 3% of the popular vote and a strong minor party presence. They already dwarf anything continuity SDP, continuity Liberal, English Democrats, Natural Law etc have mustered at any point. What happens next with them next will be interesting and potentially impactful downstream.
"The Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire recount is underway by hand – for the third time – but the flaw in the original vote does not appear to have been identified but it is clear there has been a problem.
After the initial count was abandoned until today, the ballots were secured overnight and it is understood that both police and security guards were present in the venue to prevent any manipulation.
Fresh staff have been drafted in but the majority of the staff are those who had been at the original count – they will go over every vote by hand from the very beginning to ensure a clear result.The Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire recount is underway by hand – for the third time – but the flaw in the original vote does not appear to have been identified but it is clear there has been a problem.
After the initial count was abandoned until today, the ballots were secured overnight and it is understood that both police and security guards were present in the venue to prevent any manipulation.
Fresh staff have been drafted in but the majority of the staff are those who had been at the original count – they will go over every vote by hand from the very beginning to ensure a clear result."
The SDP achieved a pretty shocking 33811 votes in 122 constituencies. I'd have expected that with some high profile media supporters they might have done a bit better. No wonder there was no candidate where I live.
One word: Farage. Reform went overnight from being a protest vote the SDP could compete with to being a massively larger contender (and certainly with a lot more media coverage and money). The SDP and Reform have two very different agendas (though very similar on immigration) but are operating in the same "small party challenger" space. The SDP's aim was to finish sixth in England - as it was, Farage returned to Reform which surged and they finished seventh behind Galloway. Clouston has spoken of it taking 20 years for the SDP to get back into Parliament - they are only 6 years into the project which started in 2018.
I suspect Farage and Reform will implode long before the next election. My estimate would be around six months for the first major falling out between Farage and Tice. His track record for putting in the hard yards and inspiring the team operation that would be required to get from guerrilla campaign to mass movement (his explicit aim now) is not great.
Farage and Tice hating each others guts and falling out was a consistent prediction during the campaign. It never happened then and I'm not sure why it should happen now. There will be plenty of other parliamentarians for Farage to pick fights with.
Reform are going to have an issue with POTUS election in autumn.
Farage will be filmed all over Trump in the run-up - making speeches to MAGA events and so on.
Are there any decent explanations yet of why of all the hundreds and hundreds of GE polls not one of them was anywhere close to the basic figure of the gap between Tory and Labour (10%).
The winner in this year's gold standard contest appears to be Norstat with a 13pt gap (Lab 37, Con 24, Ref 16, LD 11, Grn 6, SNP 4, Oth 2.) They got the Tories right and were one of the less over-optimistic pollsters for Labour. Honourable mention to Verian with Lab on 36%; People Polling for GBeebies also called Lab 36% but their Tory-Reform balance was hopelessly out. Nobody called Labour below 36% during the campaign, or at any point this year.
The key polling fail in this campaign period has clearly been this over-estimation of Labour, though other themes are the over-estimation of Reform, and an under-estimation of both the Liberal Democrats and of the independents and minor party candidates (4.3% of votes cast in GB this time, versus 1.0% in 2019.) Whether this is down to issues with how the pollsters weight their samples and variable likelihood to turn out I'm not sure, but it's likely something to do with that coupled with the unpredictable outbreak of pro-Gaza revolts against Labour. There have been over half-a-million votes for independents and in excess of 200,000 for Galloway's outfit on top of that. The Workers Party alone accounts for 0.7% of all votes cast, and it's a fair bet that virtually all of those are defections from Labour.
Hat tip Savanta who were modelling higher 'others' much better during the campaign
The SDP achieved a pretty shocking 33811 votes in 122 constituencies. I'd have expected that with some high profile media supporters they might have done a bit better. No wonder there was no candidate where I live.
In a rational world they would be getting millions of votes.
Welly wanging, crockery smashing, tombola, dog with the waggiest tail, real ale tent, rain, tea and cakes, and pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey.
It's essentially the most unbelievably English thing ever.
And they all voted LibDem.
Enjoy!
I wouldn't count on it. I once left a gig at the Cambridge Folk Festival because it developed a disturbing "this country was better without the furriners" tone.
Contrary to the PB Tory warnings I haven’t noticed Keir taking any money out of my bank account yet but I am in my overdraft already so maybe that’s why.
My account will look better when the (expected) Inverness result is recognised by Ladbrokes.
The SDP achieved a pretty shocking 33811 votes in 122 constituencies. I'd have expected that with some high profile media supporters they might have done a bit better. No wonder there was no candidate where I live.
One word: Farage. Reform went overnight from being a protest vote the SDP could compete with to being a massively larger contender (and certainly with a lot more media coverage and money). The SDP and Reform have two very different agendas (though very similar on immigration) but are operating in the same "small party challenger" space. The SDP's aim was to finish sixth in England - as it was, Farage returned to Reform which surged and they finished seventh behind Galloway. Clouston has spoken of it taking 20 years for the SDP to get back into Parliament - they are only 6 years into the project which started in 2018.
I suspect Farage and Reform will implode long before the next election. My estimate would be around six months for the first major falling out between Farage and Tice. His track record for putting in the hard yards and inspiring the team operation that would be required to get from guerrilla campaign to mass movement (his explicit aim now) is not great.
Farage and Tice hating each others guts and falling out was a consistent prediction during the campaign. It never happened then and I'm not sure why it should happen now. There will be plenty of other parliamentarians for Farage to pick fights with.
Reform are going to have an issue with POTUS election in autumn.
Farage will be filmed all over Trump in the run-up - making speeches to MAGA events and so on.
Not sure that will help Reform polling.
He may love Trump but does the Reform base in UK?
I don't know about the Reform base but Farage wants to be the leader of the opposition. Campaigning alongside Trump could be the death knell for that for multiple reasons.
The SDP achieved a pretty shocking 33811 votes in 122 constituencies. I'd have expected that with some high profile media supporters they might have done a bit better. No wonder there was no candidate where I live.
In a rational world they would be getting millions of votes.
Theoretically they fill one of the nine potential party slots under 'rational organisation: Economically Left and Socially conservative.
(Assuming an economic Left-Centre-Right axis and options of Socially conservative, Socially libertarian and Wokeist.)
Despite having no wellies to wang, I am relaxing in my favourite hotel bar with PB, coffee, and Jimmy Page covering a Peter Green song at high volume on the headphones. I hope everyone else is enjoying their Saturday.
I am walking through the third rainstorm of this labour government
Comments
It's just a matter of how many days it takes for the relevant authorities to sort out whatever mess they've made during the count. One imagines that some kind of inquest will follow.
Welly wanging, crockery smashing, tombola, dog with the waggiest tail, real ale tent, rain, tea and cakes, and pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey.
It's essentially the most unbelievably English thing ever.
Enjoy!
https://littlebritain.fandom.com/wiki/Maggie_Blackamoor
China has bought a multi year lead on the west through $2-300bn in subsidies to the battery/EV industries.
You can’t really criticise them for doing what’s essential if they’re going to get to grips with their own CO2 emissions - but that doesn’t mean our rolling over and playing dead.
We should be thinking about whether we could make similar kinds of a deals.
Not least because we spent the last decade thinking and arguing only about the process of leaving, rather than actually managing our own affairs.
As for the polling failure, I expect we'll see yet more adjustments applied to raw data in the future.
I hope the pollsters will review the makeup of their panels; Verian's random probability sample may be worth replicating, as it seems they were the second most accurate pollster overall (albeit behind Norstat who used a traditional managed panel).
The short money is to help setting up constituency offices and employing assistants, especially for small parties etc. I am sure that the Reform company can afford that all by itself.
Does the Reform company have to submit accounts to the electoral commission?
General election ratings
2024 Exit poll:10pm-11pm
BBC ONE-4.2m (33.7%)
ITV1-1.3m (10.2%)
C4-930K (7.4%)
Sky News-530k (4.2%)
BBC News-306k (2.4%)
'Cumulative 7.3m tune into exit poll predicting Labour landslide victory at 10pm, 3m fewer than in 2019'
2019 Exit poll: 10pm-11pm
BBC ONE-6.1m (37.8%)
ITV1-2.3m (14.7%)
C4-466k (2.9%)
Sky News-512k (3.2%)
BBC News-506k (3.1%)
Source: Broadcast
The winner in this year's gold standard contest appears to be Norstat with a 13pt gap (Lab 37, Con 24, Ref 16, LD 11, Grn 6, SNP 4, Oth 2.) They got the Tories right and were one of the less over-optimistic pollsters for Labour. Honourable mention to Verian with Lab on 36%; People Polling for GBeebies also called Lab 36% but their Tory-Reform balance was hopelessly out. Nobody called Labour below 36% during the campaign, or at any point this year.
The key polling fail in this campaign period has clearly been this over-estimation of Labour, though other themes are the over-estimation of Reform, and an under-estimation of both the Liberal Democrats and of the independents and minor party candidates (4.3% of votes cast in GB this time, versus 1.0% in 2019.) Whether this is down to issues with how the pollsters weight their samples and variable likelihood to turn out I'm not sure, but it's likely something to do with that coupled with the unpredictable outbreak of pro-Gaza revolts against Labour. There have been over half-a-million votes for independents and in excess of 200,000 for Galloway's outfit on top of that. The Workers Party alone accounts for 0.7% of all votes cast, and it's a fair bet that virtually all of those are defections from Labour.
That does suggest they have some capacity to reach 2 to 3% of the popular vote and a strong minor party presence. They already dwarf anything continuity SDP, continuity Liberal, English Democrats, Natural Law etc have mustered at any point.
What happens next with them next will be interesting and potentially impactful downstream.
https://www.ross-shirejournal.co.uk/news/the-inverness-skye-and-west-ross-shire-recount-is-underway-355019/
"The Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire recount is underway by hand – for the third time – but the flaw in the original vote does not appear to have been identified but it is clear there has been a problem.
After the initial count was abandoned until today, the ballots were secured overnight and it is understood that both police and security guards were present in the venue to prevent any manipulation.
Fresh staff have been drafted in but the majority of the staff are those who had been at the original count – they will go over every vote by hand from the very beginning to ensure a clear result.The Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire recount is underway by hand – for the third time – but the flaw in the original vote does not appear to have been identified but it is clear there has been a problem.
After the initial count was abandoned until today, the ballots were secured overnight and it is understood that both police and security guards were present in the venue to prevent any manipulation.
Fresh staff have been drafted in but the majority of the staff are those who had been at the original count – they will go over every vote by hand from the very beginning to ensure a clear result."
Farage will be filmed all over Trump in the run-up - making speeches to MAGA events and so on.
Not sure that will help Reform polling.
He may love Trump but does the Reform base in UK?
NEW THREAD
Theoretically they fill one of the nine potential party slots under 'rational organisation: Economically Left and Socially conservative.
(Assuming an economic Left-Centre-Right axis and options of Socially conservative, Socially libertarian and Wokeist.)