The Culture War is going to really kick off now. A rampant Reform and a highly energised left wing of Greens/Gaza/JSO.
Is PB ready?
Labour's vast majority means both are going to be irrelevant in terms of parliamentary politics. I'd guess Refuk will prove to be more successful of attracting attention outside of that.
I wonder if they're in danger of sounding like they're howling at the moon if the govt don't engage
It will be interesting to see. This isn't the European Parliament where he can hang around with a bunch of far right pals and the etiquette is different. There will be a lot of the stuff Davey gets - theatrical laughs, chatting over him, just talking to an empty chamber. He might adapt to it well, but it's a different situation to what he's faced before.
Then there's managing the MPs - none of them are particularly easy people to work with, I suspect.
Starmer's such a lucky general; he just managed to get 291 more seats than the Tories. Incredibly lucky.
I think I'd rather have support that's a mile wide and an inch deep than support that's an inch wide and an inch deep.
By the way, I thought Starmer's Downing St. speech was very impressive. Those itching for his early downfall are going to be very disappointed.
I liked and rated that speech too. And he really has to succeed otherwise Farage will run riot with his MAGA style "we want our country back" shit aimed at xenophobes, angry andys and simple simons. I'm genuinely optimistic that he will. I think he's going to be one of the best PMs we've had in modern times.
If the pathetic governments of 2010-2024 had kept even just a half-hearted control on immigration levels - the very, very minimum of what they repeatedly said they would do, rather than the complete opposite - there wouldn't be a Reform Party right now. Reform are a natural response to an issue of great saliance to the electorate going ignored.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
My guess is that many of these are Tories whi just couldn't Tory again. Not this time. Not with lockdown/ partygate/pinchergate/the Trussterfuck/HS2 cancellation/National Service /.../.../....
Yes they will be like me. I was tempted to go reform but nigel’s Putin chat nixed that
No way I could go with the Tories after their many many failures - migration boats and tax being just the worst. So I held my nose and said Right give starmer a chance and a good majority so he’s got a stable foundation to enact real change
It was a one-off. I won’t do it again unless Starmer really succeeds. Radically repairs the NHS etc
He’s got one shot and one term then people like me will go elsewhere
The Tories have to nail their leader to get you back though. Delicate balancing act between a boring Starmer type figure and a mad right winger.
I suspect they'll follow the Labour pattern. Policy wonk > extremist > electable. Hunt, Braverman, ???
It's a really good result for the country in many ways because Starmer has enough power to do things, but at the same time doesn't have any room to be complacent. Meanwhile the Tories and the broader right can think about what needs to be done without the constraints of being in office.
Full recount at South Basildon and East Thurrock. I am here and people are counting very carefully Looks like a two horse race between Labour and Reform. Watch @itvnews for updates."
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
The Liberal Democrats realised about 30 years ago that they need to concentrate their vote where it matters. Their namesakes in name only Freie Demokratische Partei (Liberalen) in Germany think that is a bad idea which is why they were 100% wiped out of the Bundestag in 2013. They just missed out on the 5% entry "hurdle" with 4.8% but didn't win any of the constituency seats. If they had built up strongholds over the years, they could have got in by the outher route of 3 constituency seats so their 4.8% PR vote would count giving them roughly 30 seats.
Interestingly, the LD vote strategy is opposite to the one that was so successful for Labour yesterday. They thinned out their vote to reduce the huge majorities as we can see in the graphic above.
The Culture War is going to really kick off now. A rampant Reform and a highly energised left wing of Greens/Gaza/JSO.
Is PB ready?
Labour's vast majority means both are going to be irrelevant in terms of parliamentary politics. I'd guess Refuk will prove to be more successful of attracting attention outside of that.
I wonder if they're in danger of sounding like they're howling at the moon if the govt don't engage
Also the Greens themselves are going to have some internal questions to ask. They've won two seats in liberal lefty cities, and two in La Torie Profonde. The glue between them is environmentalism - I hope this is the the focus.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
So what were the 3 key headlines from the election?
I'd say:
1) Labour landslide but on only 34% of the vote
2) SNP get their just deserts: 9 seats lol
3) Reform win 4/5 seats
(LibDems impressive rise in seat numbers just edged out in my top three.)
The huge number of seats won on low shares of the vote. This is massively important, because it reduces the size of the swings needed for large changes at the next GE.
This is a consequence of the large drop in the two-party share, which the seat gains by the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all a consequence of.
I think it's fair to talk about five party politics.
I think it's much more likely the next election plays out like:
1906 > 1910.
1924 > 1929.
1945 > 1950
Rather than:
1983 > 1987
1997 > 2001
Meaning, it's very likely the landslide collapses in 2029 rather than being maintained next time.
A nearly 200 seat majority on less than 35% of the vote in GB and with just a 60% turnout is very much a one off, freak result and I can't see Labour being able to replicate these circumstances again.
If that's Starmars conclusion, maybe he will still be interested in PR, but I doubt it somehow. Like all leaders with a landslide, he'll conclude he can pull the trick off off again so I suspect he'll stick with FPTP and see his majority eliminated in '29.
After my disastrous performance backing one Jeremy Corbyn, today I will be triumphant, if I may.
I backed SKS from day one, proudly voted for him knowing only he could lead Labour to victory. I thought that was maybe a tall order - but he was clearly the only candidate who could do it.
I called the peak of Johnson at Hartlepool when others said he would govern for a decade. People said SKS's approach was baffling but he followed it from day one and it's resulted in success. Slow, boring, frustrating. But he picked a strategy, stuck to it and has delivered.
Whatever the vote shares, to do what he has done in five years, will undoubtedly put him in the history books. Falling just short of Tony Blair's majority almost due to a rounding error, I believe he can make an argument to being Labour's most significant leader ever.
Now, to work. My vote is not held for good. I will resign my Labour membership if he does not deliver - and I will be prepared to vote Tory if they go back to the politics of myself and many others.
But today, is a good day.
Yes you made a very early call that SKS was going to come good and you maintained it in the face of much ridicule. Well done.
Those posters who humiliated Starmer with nicknames like Gordon Brittas, whilst adoring Boris Johnson are quiet today. I'm not particularly a fan, but he needs to get the job done now.
Just seen a clip of a lolling 'loose as a goose' Boris Johnson in the Commons calling him "Sir Crasherooni Snoozefest" ... ho ho ho ho. What a fucking card. I'll be so pleased to see the back of an era in politics where this sort of infantile drivel is deemed something to chuckle at and admire.
The Culture War is going to really kick off now. A rampant Reform and a highly energised left wing of Greens/Gaza/JSO.
Is PB ready?
Labour's vast majority means both are going to be irrelevant in terms of parliamentary politics. I'd guess Refuk will prove to be more successful of attracting attention outside of that.
I wonder if they're in danger of sounding like they're howling at the moon if the govt don't engage
It will be interesting to see. This isn't the European Parliament where he can hang around with a bunch of far right pals and the etiquette is different. There will be a lot of the stuff Davey gets - theatrical laughs, chatting over him, just talking to an empty chamber. He might adapt to it well, but it's a different situation to what he's faced before.
Then there's managing the MPs - none of them are particularly easy people to work with, I suspect.
Farage is shrewd. Leave the chamber empty and he’ll point it out and make endless anti-politics points. What he won’t cope with as well, because the EU parliament doesn’t really have them, is dealing with interventions and questions. That’s how you take him down.
So what were the 3 key headlines from the election?
I'd say:
1) Labour landslide but on only 34% of the vote
2) SNP get their just deserts: 9 seats lol
3) Reform win 4/5 seats
(LibDems impressive rise in seat numbers just edged out in my top three.)
The huge number of seats won on low shares of the vote. This is massively important, because it reduces the size of the swings needed for large changes at the next GE.
This is a consequence of the large drop in the two-party share, which the seat gains by the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all a consequence of.
I think it's fair to talk about five party politics.
I'd not appreciated fully until wading through this thread just how many hyper marginals this election has created. Just looking at Labour defences, there are now 60 Labour MPs that can be toppled by swings of under 3%, including 25 seats with majorities of under 1,000 votes and available on swings of under 1%. It points towards the potential for huge volatility.
Buckets of Labour seats the Tories can win back just by suppressing Reform a bit. The LibDems are gonna be much, much more difficult to beat. They need to listen to Jeremy Hunt if they are to stand any chance of winning a majority again.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
So what were the 3 key headlines from the election?
I'd say:
1) Labour landslide but on only 34% of the vote
2) SNP get their just deserts: 9 seats lol
3) Reform win 4/5 seats
(LibDems impressive rise in seat numbers just edged out in my top three.)
The huge number of seats won on low shares of the vote. This is massively important, because it reduces the size of the swings needed for large changes at the next GE.
This is a consequence of the large drop in the two-party share, which the seat gains by the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all a consequence of.
I think it's fair to talk about five party politics.
I'd not appreciated fully until wading through this thread just how many hyper marginals this election has created. Just looking at Labour defences, there are now 60 Labour MPs that can be toppled by swings of under 3%, including 25 seats with majorities of under 1,000 votes and available on swings of under 1%. It points towards the potential for huge volatility.
It means starmer has to be careful in a way Blair didn’t. Half his MPs can disappear on a small swing than bang he’s back in opposition
And to make matters worse for him, the SNP will recover. Soon enough he’s going to have Labour in power in Westminster, Wales, Scotland, London, and the other larger metro mayors. There will be a year or two where that’s great news and he has max power: and then the long downward slide starts, and one by one they fall away. No one else to blame when you are master of all you survey.
For those of my stripe, Road.cc has a summary of MPs who have made dodgy claims about cycling who have been ejected.
Mainly Tories, IDS survives, and Louise "Cycle? Have you been to Sheffield?" Haigh who had a Damascene-looking conversion after sampling a pedelec gets a walk-on part.
Decent political commentary, and links to the things they were cross about.
After my disastrous performance backing one Jeremy Corbyn, today I will be triumphant, if I may.
I backed SKS from day one, proudly voted for him knowing only he could lead Labour to victory. I thought that was maybe a tall order - but he was clearly the only candidate who could do it.
I called the peak of Johnson at Hartlepool when others said he would govern for a decade. People said SKS's approach was baffling but he followed it from day one and it's resulted in success. Slow, boring, frustrating. But he picked a strategy, stuck to it and has delivered.
Whatever the vote shares, to do what he has done in five years, will undoubtedly put him in the history books. Falling just short of Tony Blair's majority almost due to a rounding error, I believe he can make an argument to being Labour's most significant leader ever.
Now, to work. My vote is not held for good. I will resign my Labour membership if he does not deliver - and I will be prepared to vote Tory if they go back to the politics of myself and many others.
But today, is a good day.
Yes you made a very early call that SKS was going to come good and you maintained it in the face of much ridicule. Well done.
Those posters who humiliated Starmer with nicknames like Gordon Brittas, whilst adoring Boris Johnson are quiet today. I'm not particularly a fan, but he needs to get the job done now.
Just seen a clip of a lolling 'loose as a goose' Boris Johnson in the Commons calling him "Sir Crasherooni Snoozefest" ... ho ho ho ho. What a fucking card. I'll be so pleased to see the back of an era in politics where this sort of infantile drivel is deemed something to chuckle at and admire.
"Sir Crasheroonie Snoozefest" isn't even particularly funny or clever.
Before the Johnsonians correct me, I am aware Starmer reversed a HGV into a fence.
Ed Davey has had a brilliant campaign. Most successful Lib Dem leader ever?
A sensational campaign. How do we get attention for both ourselves and for our policies? Find a way to highlight them in a way that the media can't ignore. But don't do it once or twice. Do it again and again and again until the campaign itself is a story.
The zenith? The bungee jump. "Take the Leap" was the challenge. "Do something you've never done before".
And here it is. Our biggest win in a century. 71 seats, likely 72 seats tomorrow. Never mind the people saying we'd lose the by-election wins. Some of last night's wins were by-election swings. Extraordinary wins. A party machine which had a brilliant strategy and targeting, and was flexible enough to know when we had target seats in the bag to move to the next tranche. And then the tranche beyond that.
We lost a few which annoy - Hunt's seat a prime example. But hard to be upset with that haul. Or the way we set about it. I remain buzzing and grinning and all of that to have been part of it.
I think East Hants has got to be on your target list. It's now a marginal having once been I think the second safest Tory seat in the country. I felt a swell there and I was nearly proven right.
North Dorset too! Only 1589 votes behind the Tories.
South Shropshire similar. Unhelpful MRP and TV advice may have cost that one, which those of us who are local knew was in play.
Full recount at South Basildon and East Thurrock. I am here and people are counting very carefully Looks like a two horse race between Labour and Reform. Watch @itvnews for updates."
I’m not ashamed to admit that I sobbed like a baby at last night’s result. That the pride in being Scottish and how we hold ourselves in the face of defeat with dignity, humility and restrained emotion reminded me conversely of how entitlement inevitably breeds a sour arrogance. That a supreme belief in self, an unbridled narcissism that ironically allows for no introspection, leaves no room for criticism or apportioning of blame, and where an absence of self-reflection and learning from mistakes ultimately leads to failure.
So yes, I cried watching Andy Murray standing in the middle of Centre Court as tributes were paid to him as he finally laid down his racket.
Jack W. Looks like Lib Dem seat 72. From the Inverness Courier: "Count agents have widely credited Liberal Democrat Angus MacDonald with having pulled off a major upset and secured the Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire seat ahead of the SNP’s Drew Hendry.
But a botched ballot count means a second recount to make it official means that he will have to wait until tomorrow to know for sure if he has won while Mr Hendry is in the inevitable position of waiting for certainty he has not won.
The calculus is quite simple as by the end of the night Mr MacDonald had between three and four more boxes than Mr Hendry – in each box there are 500 ballots so the margin of victory was likely between 1500 and 2000 votes".
With trhe Mid Dumbarton small landslide the Lib Dems in Scotland are clawing their way back, they need to tackle the Border areas which they used to represent.
Not much sign of any LibDem progress in the Borders. John Lamont and David Mundell have been very effective at suppressing any revival.
I think the Scottish Greens could do exceptionally well at the next Holyrood election
The next Holyrood election could be another bloodbath for the separatists, but I think the council elections in Glasgow are going to be brutal as well.
"So. Farewell then conservatism The last train of the old life has finally departed Peter Hitchens
Conservatism has died, not from an assassin’s bullet, or even from old age or because it was run over by a bus. It has died because there is no call for it anymore. This isn’t to say that nobody wants it, but that nobody cares that we want it. The same thing has happened to most of the things I like, from the forgotten Aztec chocolate bar to railway restaurant cars, from woodland peace to proper funerals.
In fact, conservatism — not to be mistaken for its loud, overdressed cousin, the Conservative Party, which somehow lives on — will probably not even get a proper funeral. Its passing will not be marked by sonorous gloom and penitence, and stern dark poetry borne away on the wind at the muddy edge of a deep, sad grave. Nobody can stand that sort of thing now. It will get a cheerful informal send-off with jokes and applause. After all, it won’t be there to hate it. I shan’t be there either. There will be no call for me."
So what were the 3 key headlines from the election?
I'd say:
1) Labour landslide but on only 34% of the vote
2) SNP get their just deserts: 9 seats lol
3) Reform win 4/5 seats
(LibDems impressive rise in seat numbers just edged out in my top three.)
The huge number of seats won on low shares of the vote. This is massively important, because it reduces the size of the swings needed for large changes at the next GE.
This is a consequence of the large drop in the two-party share, which the seat gains by the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all a consequence of.
I think it's fair to talk about five party politics.
I'd not appreciated fully until wading through this thread just how many hyper marginals this election has created. Just looking at Labour defences, there are now 60 Labour MPs that can be toppled by swings of under 3%, including 25 seats with majorities of under 1,000 votes and available on swings of under 1%. It points towards the potential for huge volatility.
Buckets of Labour seats the Tories can win back just by suppressing Reform a bit. The LibDems are gonna be much, much more difficult to beat. They need to listen to Jeremy Hunt if they are to stand any chance of winning a majority again.
Yes, appointing rich boring wet centrist Dad Jeremy Hunt is the way to win back Reform voters
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
LAB: 208 LD: 85 CON: 139 REF: 165
Total chaos
F*** me the sun hasn't set on the first day of the new Government and we are conducting a post mortem on GE2029. The nation was still smoothing Johnson's c*** all the way up to the Owen Paterson crisis.
"So. Farewell then conservatism The last train of the old life has finally departed Peter Hitchens
Conservatism has died, not from an assassin’s bullet, or even from old age or because it was run over by a bus. It has died because there is no call for it anymore. This isn’t to say that nobody wants it, but that nobody cares that we want it. The same thing has happened to most of the things I like, from the forgotten Aztec chocolate bar to railway restaurant cars, from woodland peace to proper funerals.
In fact, conservatism — not to be mistaken for its loud, overdressed cousin, the Conservative Party, which somehow lives on — will probably not even get a proper funeral. Its passing will not be marked by sonorous gloom and penitence, and stern dark poetry borne away on the wind at the muddy edge of a deep, sad grave. Nobody can stand that sort of thing now. It will get a cheerful informal send-off with jokes and applause. After all, it won’t be there to hate it. I shan’t be there either. There will be no call for me."
"Today is history. Today will be remembered. Years from now the young will ask with wonder about this day. Today is history and you are part of it. Forty-five years ago when elsewhere they were footing the blame for rampant global poverty, Margaret the Great - so called - told the Conservatives they could come to Britain. They came. They trundled their belongings into the country. They settled. They took hold. They prospered in business, science, education, the arts. With nothing they came and with nothing they flourished. For 45 years there has been a Conservative Britain. By this evening those forty-five years will be a rumor. They never happened. Today is history."
Lots of talk about planning reform, and lots of talk about a return to the idiocy of PFI. I support the former, but it’s going to be unpopular. I oppose the latter, strongly, and it will be unpopular.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
LAB: 208 LD: 85 CON: 139 REF: 165
Total chaos
F*** me the sun hasn't set on the first day of the new Government and we are conducting a post mortem on GE2029. The nation was still smoothing Johnson's c*** all the way up to the Owen Paterson crisis.
Do you remember the beautiful weather the day after Blair won? It was ethereally lovely
I’m right now staring at a cold autumnal downpour in July
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
I think the Scottish Greens could do exceptionally well at the next Holyrood election
The next Holyrood election could be another bloodbath for the separatists, but I think the council elections in Glasgow are going to be brutal as well.
Purged at all levels of Government, with any luck
Well, the Scottish Greens are pro-indy too. I think a lot of people on the left will vote for the "real thing".
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
LAB: 208 LD: 85 CON: 139 REF: 165
Total chaos
F*** me the sun hasn't set on the first day of the new Government and we are conducting a post mortem on GE2029. The nation was still smoothing Johnson's c*** all the way up to the Owen Paterson crisis.
Do you remember the beautiful weather the day after Blair won? It was ethereally lovely
I’m right now staring at a cold autumnal downpour in July
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
LAB: 208 LD: 85 CON: 139 REF: 165
Total chaos
Maybe - although I get the sense that Farage doesn’t really play well with others. I have always seen him as a bit of right wing Galloway (albeit Galloway is better at winning by-elections and Farage had a bigger career win in Brexit). Can he really organise to get that sort of representation? Can it genuinely become a right wing force within parliament? We’ll see (and some will depend on what turn the Conservatives take).
And although everyone keeps on saying they want boring politics again. I am not sure it will be all that boring. Which of course keeps sites like this and geeks like us happy.
I, for one, am stoked to read predictions from the person who actually struck a bet that the Tories would win 0 seats
At 1000/1 and on the basis I gave my £10 to a Ukrainian charity in Kyiv while I was there. Which I did. Because we all knew I was going to lose. You do understand the concept of “joke bets”, right?
The only significant bet I made was £50 with @TimS. Which I won
Some decent turn outs in Brighton - in what all turned out to be pretty safe seats:
We have the turnouts #Brighton Kemptown and #Peacehaven, 59.96 per cent (41,243) Brighton Pavilion 70.30 per cent (52,572) #Hove & #Portslade 70.42 per cent (52,156) Brunswick & Adelaide by-election 65.14 per cent (5,231) #LDreporter #GeneralElection2024
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
So what were the 3 key headlines from the election?
I'd say:
1) Labour landslide but on only 34% of the vote
2) SNP get their just deserts: 9 seats lol
3) Reform win 4/5 seats
(LibDems impressive rise in seat numbers just edged out in my top three.)
The huge number of seats won on low shares of the vote. This is massively important, because it reduces the size of the swings needed for large changes at the next GE.
This is a consequence of the large drop in the two-party share, which the seat gains by the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all a consequence of.
I think it's fair to talk about five party politics.
I'd not appreciated fully until wading through this thread just how many hyper marginals this election has created. Just looking at Labour defences, there are now 60 Labour MPs that can be toppled by swings of under 3%, including 25 seats with majorities of under 1,000 votes and available on swings of under 1%. It points towards the potential for huge volatility.
That's good. The Conservatives just need 140 more with bigger swings and they can form a government.
I mean to say. I think it's highly likely Labour will lose those 60 seats next time. As a government they can afford to. But the next 140 are that much harder for the Conservatives who will probably also have to take seats off the Lib Dems with different dynamics. No-one will be gifting them these seats and others including Reform probably will be squeezing just as much as the Conservatives. Not an impossible task I suggest, but not an easy one either.
So what were the 3 key headlines from the election?
I'd say:
1) Labour landslide but on only 34% of the vote
2) SNP get their just deserts: 9 seats lol
3) Reform win 4/5 seats
(LibDems impressive rise in seat numbers just edged out in my top three.)
The huge number of seats won on low shares of the vote. This is massively important, because it reduces the size of the swings needed for large changes at the next GE.
This is a consequence of the large drop in the two-party share, which the seat gains by the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all a consequence of.
I think it's fair to talk about five party politics.
I think it's much more likely the next election plays out like:
1906 > 1910.
1924 > 1929.
1945 > 1950
Rather than:
1983 > 1987
1997 > 2001
Meaning, it's very likely the landslide collapses in 2029 rather than being maintained next time.
A nearly 200 seat majority on less than 35% of the vote in GB and with just a 60% turnout is very much a one off, freak result and I can't see Labour being able to replicate these circumstances again.
If that's Starmars conclusion, maybe he will still be interested in PR, but I doubt it somehow. Like all leaders with a landslide, he'll conclude he can pull the trick off off again so I suspect he'll stick with FPTP and see his majority eliminated in '29.
Wouldn't a change in voting system require a referendum ? Would be hugely divisive with his own MPs. Not going to happen.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It wasn't the most important election in a generation to most? Firstly it was obvious who was going to win, secondly on the economy very little between the two biggest parties because everything is so constrained by debt and necessity.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
LAB: 208 LD: 85 CON: 139 REF: 165
Total chaos
Maybe - although I get the sense that Farage doesn’t really play well with others. I have always seen him as a bit of right wing Galloway (albeit Galloway is better at winning by-elections and Farage had a bigger career win in Brexit). Can he really organise to get that sort of representation? Can it genuinely become a right wing force within parliament? We’ll see (and some will depend on what turn the Conservatives take).
And although everyone keeps on saying they want boring politics again. I am not sure it will be all that boring. Which of course keeps sites like this and geeks like us happy.
Those kind of Reform numbers are not impossible, witness France and Italy, but in both those cases it took a changing of the guard and at least the semblance of professionalism to achieve that.
I think it takes Farage to decisively exit the stage and then a politically talented successor to get there for a radical right party.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
Am I correct in thinking that Labour got both a lower number of votes AND a lower percentage share of the vote than May did when she lost her majority?
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
LAB: 208 LD: 85 CON: 139 REF: 165
Total chaos
F*** me the sun hasn't set on the first day of the new Government and we are conducting a post mortem on GE2029. The nation was still smoothing Johnson's c*** all the way up to the Owen Paterson crisis.
Do you remember the beautiful weather the day after Blair won? It was ethereally lovely
I’m right now staring at a cold autumnal downpour in July
Seems fitting, but a bad augury
I remember that day clearly, very pissy bbq at our student house in West Hampstead and everyone shouting at Glenda Jackson to fuck off as she drove around thanking people for voting for her.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
LAB: 208 LD: 85 CON: 139 REF: 165
Total chaos
F*** me the sun hasn't set on the first day of the new Government and we are conducting a post mortem on GE2029. The nation was still smoothing Johnson's c*** all the way up to the Owen Paterson crisis.
Do you remember the beautiful weather the day after Blair won? It was ethereally lovely
I’m right now staring at a cold autumnal downpour in July
Seems fitting, but a bad augury
It doesn't feel anything like 1997.
The World is a much darker place.
Sadly, yes
I’m a bit depressed today, and it’s not just cause of the crap weather or the two bottles of wine I drank last night (the Chateau Musar 2001 was superb). Nor is it the new Labour government: I voted for them. I wish them well. I hope they succeed
But I don’t think they will, the entire world (as you say) seems headed into evermore troubled waters, on so many fronts
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
LAB: 208 LD: 85 CON: 139 REF: 165
Total chaos
Maybe - although I get the sense that Farage doesn’t really play well with others. I have always seen him as a bit of right wing Galloway (albeit Galloway is better at winning by-elections and Farage had a bigger career win in Brexit). Can he really organise to get that sort of representation? Can it genuinely become a right wing force within parliament? We’ll see (and some will depend on what turn the Conservatives take).
And although everyone keeps on saying they want boring politics again. I am not sure it will be all that boring. Which of course keeps sites like this and geeks like us happy.
Those kind of Reform numbers are not impossible, witness France and Italy, but in both those cases it took a changing of the guard and at least the semblance of professionalism to achieve that.
I think it takes Farage to decisively exit the stage and then a politically talented successor to get there for a radical right party.
Yes I agree. Farage needs to find his Bardella, and a dozen more like him. Smooth, professional, clever, ambitious, not obviously racist
He needs to copy Mme Le Pen. With the short money and new donors - and 4 million votes behind him - he has a chance
Strongly disagree. This is FPTP at its *best*, allowing the electorate to mete out proper punishment and let another team have a proper go of it without having to bend to fringe parties that hardly anybody at all wants.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
Am I correct in thinking that Labour got both a lower number of votes AND a lower percentage share of the vote than May did when she lost her majority?
None of you were concerned when it assisted Boris Johnson's 80 seat majority on 43% of the vote.
Labour and the LibDems have gamed a flawed and ludicrous electoral system. Your party had 14 years to make voting more proportional. Hell, the LDs would have bitten you hand off for PR during the coalition.
The 121 Con seats result could have been soooo much worse. They've dodged a bullet I think.
It would be interesting, if anyone was ever that bored by life, to see if just half of reform votes in each constituency were added to Tory totals how many seats the Tories would have won.
I say half as it answers some arguments about not all reform voters being natural Tories in a simple and relatively fair way.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
If Farage is more visible to the public over the next five years does that help, or does it prevent a Reform surge next time because he's no longer the new thing?
A lot will depend on whether he's takes a leaf out of Le Pen's book and finds a younger protégé or two. If not then Reform will struggle to extend their support beyond the current level.
Sia Yusuf is the chosen one - Farage has already hinted it. No idea why he'd want to do it mind.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
LAB: 208 LD: 85 CON: 139 REF: 165
Total chaos
Maybe - although I get the sense that Farage doesn’t really play well with others. I have always seen him as a bit of right wing Galloway (albeit Galloway is better at winning by-elections and Farage had a bigger career win in Brexit). Can he really organise to get that sort of representation? Can it genuinely become a right wing force within parliament? We’ll see (and some will depend on what turn the Conservatives take).
And although everyone keeps on saying they want boring politics again. I am not sure it will be all that boring. Which of course keeps sites like this and geeks like us happy.
Those kind of Reform numbers are not impossible, witness France and Italy, but in both those cases it took a changing of the guard and at least the semblance of professionalism to achieve that.
I think it takes Farage to decisively exit the stage and then a politically talented successor to get there for a radical right party.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
LAB: 208 LD: 85 CON: 139 REF: 165
Total chaos
Maybe - although I get the sense that Farage doesn’t really play well with others. I have always seen him as a bit of right wing Galloway (albeit Galloway is better at winning by-elections and Farage had a bigger career win in Brexit). Can he really organise to get that sort of representation? Can it genuinely become a right wing force within parliament? We’ll see (and some will depend on what turn the Conservatives take).
And although everyone keeps on saying they want boring politics again. I am not sure it will be all that boring. Which of course keeps sites like this and geeks like us happy.
Those kind of Reform numbers are not impossible, witness France and Italy, but in both those cases it took a changing of the guard and at least the semblance of professionalism to achieve that.
I think it takes Farage to decisively exit the stage and then a politically talented successor to get there for a radical right party.
Yup. Will he do that though? And will there be a politically talented successor?
Witness UKIP leaders over the years: Farage Pearson Farage Farage James Puttall Crowther Bolton Batten.
Not quite the same analogue. But you get my point.
The 121 Con seats result could have been soooo much worse. They've dodged a bullet I think.
It would be interesting, if anyone was ever that bored by life, to see if just half of reform votes in each constituency were added to Tory totals how many seats the Tories would have won.
I say half as it answers some arguments about not all reform voters being natural Tories in a simple and relatively fair way.
I was thinking a third, given that the vote split could well be 1/3 labour, 2/3 tory were reform not standing...
May given an interesting contrast, just need to find a spreadsheet of numbers which I'm sure I'll find later tonight.
The 121 Con seats result could have been soooo much worse. They've dodged a bullet I think.
It would be interesting, if anyone was ever that bored by life, to see if just half of reform votes in each constituency were added to Tory totals how many seats the Tories would have won.
I say half as it answers some arguments about not all reform voters being natural Tories in a simple and relatively fair way.
Rather than Reform I'd say the Tories had a bigger problem with voters who stayed at home, I suspect thats part of what is driving the turnout figures
So what were the 3 key headlines from the election?
I'd say:
1) Labour landslide but on only 34% of the vote
2) SNP get their just deserts: 9 seats lol
3) Reform win 4/5 seats
(LibDems impressive rise in seat numbers just edged out in my top three.)
The huge number of seats won on low shares of the vote. This is massively important, because it reduces the size of the swings needed for large changes at the next GE.
This is a consequence of the large drop in the two-party share, which the seat gains by the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all a consequence of.
I think it's fair to talk about five party politics.
I think it's much more likely the next election plays out like:
1906 > 1910.
1924 > 1929.
1945 > 1950
Rather than:
1983 > 1987
1997 > 2001
Meaning, it's very likely the landslide collapses in 2029 rather than being maintained next time.
A nearly 200 seat majority on less than 35% of the vote in GB and with just a 60% turnout is very much a one off, freak result and I can't see Labour being able to replicate these circumstances again.
If that's Starmars conclusion, maybe he will still be interested in PR, but I doubt it somehow. Like all leaders with a landslide, he'll conclude he can pull the trick off off again so I suspect he'll stick with FPTP and see his majority eliminated in '29.
Wouldn't a change in voting system require a referendum ? Would be hugely divisive with his own MPs. Not going to happen.
The last govt set the precedent of changing the voting system without a referendum or explicit manifesto commitment, so I don't see why the new govt couldn't do likewise.
Whether or not they want to is quite a different matter, of course!
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
Am I correct in thinking that Labour got both a lower number of votes AND a lower percentage share of the vote than May did when she lost her majority?
Yes, by a long margin. May increased the Tory vote share by 5.5% to 42.3% (13.6m votes) and lost 13 seats.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
LAB: 208 LD: 85 CON: 139 REF: 165
Total chaos
F*** me the sun hasn't set on the first day of the new Government and we are conducting a post mortem on GE2029. The nation was still smoothing Johnson's c*** all the way up to the Owen Paterson crisis.
Do you remember the beautiful weather the day after Blair won? It was ethereally lovely
I’m right now staring at a cold autumnal downpour in July
Seems fitting, but a bad augury
Two days before Blair’s 1997 win I was doing a soil survey in Shropshire and it was snowing.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
This election is a vindication of FPTP.
In that case why are so many PB Tories bellyaching that Labour have no mandate on 34%? That being so FPTP has failed.
JRM was on R4 saying Ref-Con had 39% of the vote and a mandate implying Labour do not. He might not realise it but he's advocating for PR.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
I am too. Although we saw the evidence a couple of days ago that apathy was higher than at previous elections.
The Culture War is going to really kick off now. A rampant Reform and a highly energised left wing of Greens/Gaza/JSO.
Is PB ready?
Labour's vast majority means both are going to be irrelevant in terms of parliamentary politics. I'd guess Refuk will prove to be more successful of attracting attention outside of that.
I wonder if they're in danger of sounding like they're howling at the moon if the govt don't engage
Also the Greens themselves are going to have some internal questions to ask. They've won two seats in liberal lefty cities, and two in La Torie Profonde. The glue between them is environmentalism - I hope this is the the focus.
They will say one thing for one, another for another, and nobody will care. The LDs and the council Greens got away with it for years... 😃
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
This election is a vindication of FPTP.
In that case why are so many PB Tories bellyaching that Labour have no mandate on 34%? That being so FPTP has failed.
JRM was on R4 saying Ref-Con had 39% of the vote and a mandate implying Labour do not. He might not realise it but he's advocating for PR.
No, it's just politicking. He's putting them on notice that if they do controversial things, they will face a lot of opposition.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
This election is a vindication of FPTP.
In that case why are so many PB Tories bellyaching that Labour have no mandate on 34%? That being so FPTP has failed.
JRM was on R4 saying Ref-Con had 39% of the vote and a mandate implying Labour do not. He might not realise it but he's advocating for PR.
1. Nobody is saying Labour don't have a mandate. Clearly they do as FPTP is winner take all and that's it. Some of us are just pointing out what an odd result it is and that the circumstances that have delivered it are very unlikely to be replicated next time. But clearly Labour have their mandate for the next five years so enjoy it.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
I'm on balance for PR but if we had it there'd be almost 100 Reform MPs in parliament and at least 50 of them would be vile and/or inadequate individuals.
FPTP makes a party put in the hard yards to build up from the bottom and establish solid roots in places across the country before it gets anywhere close to power.
This provides a bulwark against "Entrepreneurial Political Startups" that have no organization or quality control standards returning large numbers of unsuitables off the back of a protest vote. They have to cement and deepen their support over time, become the real deal, before that can happen.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
The quality of Reform's candidates seems quite poor (not that that's ever been considered an encumbrance for the Tories) but apart from that I'd love there to be 91 of them.
Moving on, several journals - NYMag, Axios - have published absolutely brutal takedowns of Biden. It is now revealed that he regularly forgets names of close aides - people he sees daily. This is quite late stage dementia - this is like my mum and she’s in sheltered housing with regular nurse visits, and we’ve made sure she’s got no access to nuclear weapons so she can’t take out the neighbour (who she hates for no reason we can ascertain)
It’s quite staggering that Biden is still President, let alone trying to stand for ANOTHER TERM
I'm on balance for PR but if we had it there'd be almost 100 Reform MPs in parliament and at least 50 of them would be vile and/or inadequate individuals.
FPTP makes a party put in the hard yards to build up from the bottom and establish solid roots in places across the country before it gets anywhere close to power.
This provides a bulwark against "Entrepreneurial Political Startups" that have no organization or quality control standards returning large numbers of unsuitables off the back of a protest vote. They have to cement and deepen their support over time, become the real deal, before that can happen.
Yeah, the one thing FPTP does have going for is that is *usually* locks out extremists and nutters.
Of course the odd maverick like Galloway and Farage can get through in the right circumstances but these tend to be the exceptions.
The 121 Con seats result could have been soooo much worse. They've dodged a bullet I think.
It would be interesting, if anyone was ever that bored by life, to see if just half of reform votes in each constituency were added to Tory totals how many seats the Tories would have won.
I say half as it answers some arguments about not all reform voters being natural Tories in a simple and relatively fair way.
I was thinking a third, given that the vote split could well be 1/3 labour, 2/3 tory were reform not standing...
May given an interesting contrast, just need to find a spreadsheet of numbers which I'm sure I'll find later tonight.
Yes they are definitely not just transfers between Reform and Tories. I was knocking up all day and with a lot of other people doing the same and we were coming across a significant number of Probable/Definite LDs voting Reform. Now if we have canvassed LDs doing that (and in the LD target of Guildford) how many will Labour have in seats where they are strong.
If Farage is more visible to the public over the next five years does that help, or does it prevent a Reform surge next time because he's no longer the new thing?
A lot will depend on whether he's takes a leaf out of Le Pen's book and finds a younger protégé or two. If not then Reform will struggle to extend their support beyond the current level.
Sia Yusuf is the chosen one - Farage has already hinted it. No idea why he'd want to do it mind.
Sadly, I have a hunch that's not going to go down well with Reform's racist supporters, which I'd guess sits at between 25% and 75% of their voters.
I'm on balance for PR but if we had it there'd be almost 100 Reform MPs in parliament and at least 50 of them would be vile and/or inadequate individuals.
FPTP makes a party put in the hard yards to build up from the bottom and establish solid roots in places across the country before it gets anywhere close to power.
This provides a bulwark against "Entrepreneurial Political Startups" that have no organization or quality control standards returning large numbers of unsuitables off the back of a protest vote. They have to cement and deepen their support over time, become the real deal, before that can happen.
Rare point of agreement, look at how fractured politics is becoming in countries like the Netherlands and Belgium which have full PR. They're becoming ungovernable because upstart and single issue parties capture big enough chunks of voters that established parties end up being pulled apart. Our electoral system works because over the next electoral cycle that's just started both Labour and the Tories will examine the results and attempt to pull Reform apart and absorb 10 out of the 14 points they got just now rather than the other way around.
The next Holyrood election could be another bloodbath for the separatists, but I think the council elections in Glasgow are going to be brutal as well.
Without question. Glasgow City Council is a notorious shambles, everyone I know in Glasgow can tell personal tales of the council's incompetence. The SNP have run it even more poorly than Labour so the chance of them getting completely humped at the next election is high.
Moving on, several journals - NYMag, Axios - have published absolutely brutal takedowns of Biden. It is now revealed that he regularly forgets names of close aides - people he sees daily. This is quite late stage dementia - this is like my mum and she’s in sheltered housing with regular nurse visits, and we’ve made sure she’s got no access to nuclear weapons so she can’t take out the neighbour (who she hates for no reason we can ascertain)
It’s quite staggering that Biden is still President, let alone trying to stand for ANOTHER TERM
I wonder if the Donor strike will be the thing that forces him out rather than bad press as without a huge war chest he’s got no chance anyway and it appears that the Disney heiress amongst other huge Dem backers has suspended donations unless he steps down.
Comments
Then there's managing the MPs - none of them are particularly easy people to work with, I suspect.
I suspect they'll follow the Labour pattern. Policy wonk > extremist > electable. Hunt, Braverman, ???
Their namesakes in name only Freie Demokratische Partei (Liberalen) in Germany think that is a bad idea which is why they were 100% wiped out of the Bundestag in 2013. They just missed out on the 5% entry "hurdle" with 4.8% but didn't win any of the constituency seats. If they had built up strongholds over the years, they could have got in by the outher route of 3 constituency seats so their 4.8% PR vote would count giving them roughly 30 seats.
Interestingly, the LD vote strategy is opposite to the one that was so successful for Labour yesterday. They thinned out their vote to reduce the huge majorities as we can see in the graphic above.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
1906 > 1910.
1924 > 1929.
1945 > 1950
Rather than:
1983 > 1987
1997 > 2001
Meaning, it's very likely the landslide collapses in 2029 rather than being maintained next time.
A nearly 200 seat majority on less than 35% of the vote in GB and with just a 60% turnout is very much a one off, freak result and I can't see Labour being able to replicate these circumstances again.
If that's Starmars conclusion, maybe he will still be interested in PR, but I doubt it somehow. Like all leaders with a landslide, he'll conclude he can pull the trick off off again so I suspect he'll stick with FPTP and see his majority eliminated in '29.
She will also be Deputy Prime Minister.
https://x.com/10downingstreet/status/1809229957601620321
https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/watch-alan-mak-retains-his-conservative-seat-in-havant-by-skin-of-his-teeth-4691811
Sinn Fein could too but I presume we can be sure they won't turn up.
LAB: 208
LD: 85
CON: 139
REF: 165
Total chaos
Mainly Tories, IDS survives, and Louise "Cycle? Have you been to Sheffield?" Haigh who had a Damascene-looking conversion after sampling a pedelec gets a walk-on part.
Decent political commentary, and links to the things they were cross about.
Fair way down, so CRTL-F and search for "Harper".
https://road.cc/content/news/cycling-live-blog-5-july-2024-309265
Before the Johnsonians correct me, I am aware Starmer reversed a HGV into a fence.
So yes, I cried watching Andy Murray standing in the middle of Centre Court as tributes were paid to him as he finally laid down his racket.
https://www.holyrood.com/editors-column/view,the-snp-dont-need-to-have-yet-another-refresh-they-need-a-complete-reset
Purged at all levels of Government, with any luck
🙄
#JustKiddin'
Courageous, minister.
Obviously there was a by-election but the GE to GE swing was utterly collosal there.
Party Votes Percentage Change
Liberal Democrat 26,214 52.86% +42.42%
Conservative 10,903 21.98% -39.71%
Talk about sewing it up. It is safer than Bath !
I’m right now staring at a cold autumnal downpour in July
Seems fitting, but a bad augury
The World is a much darker place.
And although everyone keeps on saying they want boring politics again. I am not sure it will be all that boring. Which of course keeps sites like this and geeks like us happy.
The only significant bet I made was £50 with @TimS. Which I won
We have the turnouts
#Brighton Kemptown and #Peacehaven, 59.96 per cent (41,243)
Brighton Pavilion 70.30 per cent (52,572)
#Hove & #Portslade 70.42 per cent (52,156)
Brunswick & Adelaide by-election 65.14 per cent (5,231) #LDreporter #GeneralElection2024
https://x.com/BHDemocracyNews/status/1809049021362663842
PR is a requirement now.
I mean to say. I think it's highly likely Labour will lose those 60 seats next time. As a government they can afford to. But the next 140 are that much harder for the Conservatives who will probably also have to take seats off the Lib Dems with different dynamics. No-one will be gifting them these seats and others including Reform probably will be squeezing just as much as the Conservatives. Not an impossible task I suggest, but not an easy one either.
Was astonishing at the ANME count. At least 30 rejected papers with #endtheunion written on which I believe is an Alba slogan.
I think it takes Farage to decisively exit the stage and then a politically talented successor to get there for a radical right party.
I’m a bit depressed today, and it’s not just cause of the crap weather or the two bottles of wine I drank last night (the Chateau Musar 2001 was superb). Nor is it the new Labour government: I voted for them. I wish them well. I hope they succeed
But I don’t think they will, the entire world (as you say) seems headed into evermore troubled waters, on so many fronts
My only hope is *technology*
The 121 Con seats result could have been soooo much worse. They've dodged a bullet I think.
Is the "young men voting Reform" one true in practise?
He needs to copy Mme Le Pen. With the short money and new donors - and 4 million votes behind him - he has a chance
Strongly disagree. This is FPTP at its *best*, allowing the electorate to mete out proper punishment and let another team have a proper go of it without having to bend to fringe parties that hardly anybody at all wants.
https://x.com/antonhowes/status/1809212147924402601
Labour and the LibDems have gamed a flawed and ludicrous electoral system. Your party had 14 years to make voting more proportional. Hell, the LDs would have bitten you hand off for PR during the coalition.
I say half as it answers some arguments about not all reform voters being natural Tories in a simple and relatively fair way.
The cockroaches of British politics just about live to fight another day...
Witness UKIP leaders over the years:
Farage
Pearson
Farage
Farage
James
Puttall
Crowther
Bolton
Batten.
Not quite the same analogue. But you get my point.
May given an interesting contrast, just need to find a spreadsheet of numbers which I'm sure I'll find later tonight.
Whether or not they want to is quite a different matter, of course!
That's FPTP for you.
JRM was on R4 saying Ref-Con had 39% of the vote and a mandate implying Labour do not. He might not realise it but he's advocating for PR.
I have my own charity plans to get a mini-initiative started, but I would certainly put something in the tin.
2. JRM is an idiot!
FPTP makes a party put in the hard yards to build up from the bottom and establish solid roots in places across the country before it gets anywhere close to power.
This provides a bulwark against "Entrepreneurial Political Startups" that have no organization or quality control standards returning large numbers of unsuitables off the back of a protest vote. They have to cement and deepen their support over time, become the real deal, before that can happen.
His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton is no longer Foreign Secretary.
This is Starmer's first big blunder, appointing David Lammy instead of keep Dave on.
https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809237181229039857
So much for Wee Dougie Alexander becoming Foreign Secretary.
So, order of victories since 1979 in terms of votes per 100 opposition votes:
1. 1983, 154 (Con) votes (per 100 Lab)
2. 2024, 143
3. 1997, 141
4. 1987, 137
5. 2019, 136
6. 2001, 128
7. 2010, 124
8. 1992, 122
9. 1979, 119
10. 2005, 109
11. 2017, 106
It’s quite staggering that Biden is still President, let alone trying to stand for ANOTHER TERM
Of course the odd maverick like Galloway and Farage can get through in the right circumstances but these tend to be the exceptions.
Here's another weird consequence of FPTP.
Because so many seats had 3-4 competitive parties, it often took a weirdly low vote share to win.
The average winning vote share this time was just 42%, down from 54% last time. In SW Norfolk, the winner won with 26% #GE24
@thetimes
https://x.com/TomHCalver/status/1809228517067891003
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/05/joe-biden-election-donors-abigail-disney-pause