I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
Markets moving towards RFM winning in Basildon S and E Thurrock. RFM ahead in count and 1st recount so far, but the count was apparently cocked up quite badly (including counting votes from the other Thurrock seat!) and they are on their full recount now. I greened out about 11am. Cuckish of me. Southgate-esque. But a win's a win.
Anyway, people arguing against FPTP are in a losing battle, Labour just got 412 seats with 34% of the vote and the Tories have a small shot of overturning it in 5 years if they can take 5% off Labour and 5% off Reform which is not a huge ask in the grand scheme of things.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
The quality of Reform's candidates seems quite poor (not that that's ever been considered an encumbrance for the Tories) but apart from that I'd love there to be 91 of them.
Up to 91 Russian shills would be right up your strasse, but I can't disagree in the interests of fairness that's what we should have.
I'm on balance for PR but if we had it there'd be almost 100 Reform MPs in parliament and at least 50 of them would be vile and/or inadequate individuals.
FPTP makes a party put in the hard yards to build up from the bottom and establish solid roots in places across the country before it gets anywhere close to power.
This provides a bulwark against "Entrepreneurial Political Startups" that have no organization or quality control standards returning large numbers of unsuitables off the back of a protest vote. They have to cement and deepen their support over time, become the real deal, before that can happen.
Rare point of agreement, look at how fractured politics is becoming in countries like the Netherlands and Belgium which have full PR. They're becoming ungovernable because upstart and single issue parties capture big enough chunks of voters that established parties end up being pulled apart. Our electoral system works because over the next electoral cycle that's just started both Labour and the Tories will examine the results and attempt to pull Reform apart and absorb 10 out of the 14 points they got just now rather than the other way around.
Reform, in turn, need to put in the hard yards, in local elections, especially in Labour seats where they are a clear second, and the Tories a clear third. Their pitch should be like the Lib Dems’. A Tory vote is a wasted vote, if you want to kick Labour out.
I'm on balance for PR but if we had it there'd be almost 100 Reform MPs in parliament and at least 50 of them would be vile and/or inadequate individuals.
FPTP makes a party put in the hard yards to build up from the bottom and establish solid roots in places across the country before it gets anywhere close to power.
This provides a bulwark against "Entrepreneurial Political Startups" that have no organization or quality control standards returning large numbers of unsuitables off the back of a protest vote. They have to cement and deepen their support over time, become the real deal, before that can happen.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
If it's a fairer system so be it.
If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
I'm on balance for PR but if we had it there'd be almost 100 Reform MPs in parliament and at least 50 of them would be vile and/or inadequate individuals.
FPTP makes a party put in the hard yards to build up from the bottom and establish solid roots in places across the country before it gets anywhere close to power.
This provides a bulwark against "Entrepreneurial Political Startups" that have no organization or quality control standards returning large numbers of unsuitables off the back of a protest vote. They have to cement and deepen their support over time, become the real deal, before that can happen.
On this occasion there would be more LLGs. Once on a blue moon you would get Con-Ref, but you might not, you might get Con-Lib. Fair's fair.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
If it's a fairer system so be it.
If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH
So that’s 5 years of naval gazing as they try and win the reform voters (who 1 - aren’t natural Tory voters, 2 - don’t exist in numbers to win a majority of seats).
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
Some scoffed when I said Greens, with solid established local organisation, the Gaza vote and a good set of locals behind them, could run a decent second in Huddersfield.
Even I had to rub my eyes to believe the Election Polling chart that Huddersfield is the Green's lowest swing target in the whole UK - their 5th best result.
Congratulations, and testament to the formidable political organisation of Cllr Andrew Cooper. I voted Labour, but hats off to the Greens.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
We will see. To be honest his administration has got very little wriggle room. The NI tax cuts were funded by, at least partially by, a cut in unprotected government departments. We know there is a bill coming for infected blood scandal that isn’t in anyone’s budget. I suspect there will be compensation for the post office scandal too. Before he’s even tied his shoes he’s covered in red ink.
To be sure there will be good will and a feel good factor - which like a placebo could be positive for the economy / society even if there’s nothing in it. However, they are really going to have to make a go of this “growth” thing. And I am not sure there is an easy way for governments to magic up growth - if there was surely everyone would pull that lever?
So some tough weeks, months and years ahead. Personally I think the Labour Party under Starmer is serious enough to apply themselves to the tasks ahead. However, not sure it is flexible or creative enough to get the job done. Even if it comes up with a magic formula to solve the tricky issues facing UK society or square away the seeming insoluble issues (i.e. our universities, care sector and most high performing sectors rely on immigration, but a lot of voters think immigration is too high and want it to go down). Can they execute it and will they be given enough time to deliver results?
If Starmer is seen to fail, I can see the next election delivering a mad result like:
LAB: 208 LD: 85 CON: 139 REF: 165
Total chaos
Maybe - although I get the sense that Farage doesn’t really play well with others. I have always seen him as a bit of right wing Galloway (albeit Galloway is better at winning by-elections and Farage had a bigger career win in Brexit). Can he really organise to get that sort of representation? Can it genuinely become a right wing force within parliament? We’ll see (and some will depend on what turn the Conservatives take).
And although everyone keeps on saying they want boring politics again. I am not sure it will be all that boring. Which of course keeps sites like this and geeks like us happy.
Those kind of Reform numbers are not impossible, witness France and Italy, but in both those cases it took a changing of the guard and at least the semblance of professionalism to achieve that.
I think it takes Farage to decisively exit the stage and then a politically talented successor to get there for a radical right party.
Yes I agree. Farage needs to find his Bardella, and a dozen more like him. Smooth, professional, clever, ambitious, not obviously racist
He needs to copy Mme Le Pen. With the short money and new donors - and 4 million votes behind him - he has a chance
He's going to try lots of Trump type shit imo. You saw it starting up today with his sneery line about Starmer "looking at his notes every 2.8 seconds" during his Downing St speech. Complete with a little mime of it. Good old Nigel. Sense of humour. Authentic. Not like normal politicians. All of that cheap exploitative schtick. We'll be seeing lots of that. You and ilk will be "lol"ing and keeping us supplied with the relevant clips, I'd imagine.
If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?
The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked
They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right
Patel?
They got fucked because they did not run the country well, and their policy offering was poor.
A problem with your idea is that the people who were driving them to run the country that well, and who made the policy offering, were the right of the party.
After all, national service is a well-known Lib Dem policy...
Moving on, several journals - NYMag, Axios - have published absolutely brutal takedowns of Biden. It is now revealed that he regularly forgets names of close aides - people he sees daily. This is quite late stage dementia - this is like my mum and she’s in sheltered housing with regular nurse visits, and we’ve made sure she’s got no access to nuclear weapons so she can’t take out the neighbour (who she hates for no reason we can ascertain)
It’s quite staggering that Biden is still President, let alone trying to stand for ANOTHER TERM
I wonder if the Donor strike will be the thing that forces him out rather than bad press as without a huge war chest he’s got no chance anyway and it appears that the Disney heiress amongst other huge Dem backers has suspended donations unless he steps down.
If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?
The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked
They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right
Patel?
If they try to cosplay a less charismatic Farage, Farage will eat them for breakfast. Who is the next Tory leader most likely to win Guildford, Horsham and Chichester? Answer that question and you’ve found your leader. Fail to win those seats back and you’re doomed.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
If it's a fairer system so be it.
If we had brilliant, consistent government from the current system then flaws in PR might carry more weight.
Exactly. And looking at these apparently ungovernable countries - like, er, the Netherlands - they look an awful lot better governed than us, TBH
If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?
The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked
They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right
Patel?
The Tories can only win maybe 1.5m of those voters back. The real challenge is to get the 2m Tory voters who stayed home to come out and vote again and win 0.5m votes back from the Lib Dems in the South as well as grab 0.5m in marginal seats from Labour. A leader that swings to the right to win 4m reform voters will lose more in the centre and do nothing to win back Labour and Lib Dem marginal voters or get stay home voters of their arses.
Electionpolling.co.uk already has a nice set of marginal seat lists for 2029.
Quote interestingly on a swing of 5% against the Tories lose 70 seats (over half) but the lib dems only lose 20. The lib dems need to get the ground game going now to keep hold of those votes leant to them for this election.
I'm on balance for PR but if we had it there'd be almost 100 Reform MPs in parliament and at least 50 of them would be vile and/or inadequate individuals.
FPTP makes a party put in the hard yards to build up from the bottom and establish solid roots in places across the country before it gets anywhere close to power.
This provides a bulwark against "Entrepreneurial Political Startups" that have no organization or quality control standards returning large numbers of unsuitables off the back of a protest vote. They have to cement and deepen their support over time, become the real deal, before that can happen.
Yeah, the one thing FPTP does have going for is that is *usually* locks out extremists and nutters.
Of course the odd maverick like Galloway and Farage can get through in the right circumstances but these tend to be the exceptions.
yes we must have a parliament where everyone has the same centrist view and not rock the boat must not we? A lot of people voted for Farage ,be careful who you insult and be careful of the innate arrogance of your position - you do not have judging rights on who is extremist or indeed a nutter
I'm on balance for PR but if we had it there'd be almost 100 Reform MPs in parliament and at least 50 of them would be vile and/or inadequate individuals.
FPTP makes a party put in the hard yards to build up from the bottom and establish solid roots in places across the country before it gets anywhere close to power.
This provides a bulwark against "Entrepreneurial Political Startups" that have no organization or quality control standards returning large numbers of unsuitables off the back of a protest vote. They have to cement and deepen their support over time, become the real deal, before that can happen.
I think at least some of the "50 vile and inadequate individuals" problem is a transitional effect, though -- if we'd had PR in place during the rise of UKIP/Brexit/Reform, that party would have had a gradual rise, not a sudden transition from 0 to 100, and their candidates would have got correspondingly more scrutiny and vetting from the party, because the party infrastructure would have grown gradually with the support base rather than massively lagging it.
I'm on balance for PR but if we had it there'd be almost 100 Reform MPs in parliament and at least 50 of them would be vile and/or inadequate individuals.
FPTP makes a party put in the hard yards to build up from the bottom and establish solid roots in places across the country before it gets anywhere close to power.
This provides a bulwark against "Entrepreneurial Political Startups" that have no organization or quality control standards returning large numbers of unsuitables off the back of a protest vote. They have to cement and deepen their support over time, become the real deal, before that can happen.
So you’ve suddenly decided FPTP is OK. lol
Wasn't my very first sentence "I'm on balance for PR"? - Let me check. Yes, it was.
But FPTP does have its strengths and I was pointing one out.
Moving on, several journals - NYMag, Axios - have published absolutely brutal takedowns of Biden. It is now revealed that he regularly forgets names of close aides - people he sees daily. This is quite late stage dementia - this is like my mum and she’s in sheltered housing with regular nurse visits, and we’ve made sure she’s got no access to nuclear weapons so she can’t take out the neighbour (who she hates for no reason we can ascertain)
It’s quite staggering that Biden is still President, let alone trying to stand for ANOTHER TERM
I wonder if the Donor strike will be the thing that forces him out rather than bad press as without a huge war chest he’s got no chance anyway and it appears that the Disney heiress amongst other huge Dem backers has suspended donations unless he steps down.
In the US, Holiday Inn long advertised that "The best surprise is no surprise." With considerable success. (My first business trip, decades ago, showed me why it was a success.)
And it sometimes works in US politics, too; the 1956 Eisenhower win is an obvious example. And there are many, many others.
Sometimes, because when voters think things are getting worse, "time for a change" usually wins.
There is nothing novel about such changes in strategy; as I learned from an entertaining essay" by Harold Morowitz, some bacteria and many speculators change, too, when the situation changes. Both cut their losses, but let their winnings run.
*"Bulls, Bears, and Bacteria" in his collection, The Wine of Life.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
The quality of Reform's candidates seems quite poor (not that that's ever been considered an encumbrance for the Tories) but apart from that I'd love there to be 91 of them.
Up to 91 Russian shills would be right up your strasse, but I can't disagree in the interests of fairness that's what we should have.
Russia's interests have been done a far bigger solid by us giving up the blast furnaces necessary to make virgin steel (needed for armaments manufacture) and our fracking ban and North Sea Oil taxes than they ever could by 91 'shills' entering the Commons. Shills would would probably want to reverse those highly damaging policies as I do.
If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?
The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked
They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right
Patel?
Patel, Braverman or Jenrick would be disastrous. Can you not see that? The proud successors to IDS and Truss. Would be immediately hated by most of the electorate.
The only real choice is Badenoch or Tugendhat. And if the Tories really want to rebuild the Blue Wall it would really need to be Tom. He's a relatable type of Tory unlike the rest of the motley crew.
I'm on balance for PR but if we had it there'd be almost 100 Reform MPs in parliament and at least 50 of them would be vile and/or inadequate individuals.
FPTP makes a party put in the hard yards to build up from the bottom and establish solid roots in places across the country before it gets anywhere close to power.
This provides a bulwark against "Entrepreneurial Political Startups" that have no organization or quality control standards returning large numbers of unsuitables off the back of a protest vote. They have to cement and deepen their support over time, become the real deal, before that can happen.
Yeah, the one thing FPTP does have going for is that is *usually* locks out extremists and nutters.
Of course the odd maverick like Galloway and Farage can get through in the right circumstances but these tend to be the exceptions.
yes we must have a parliament where everyone has the same centrist view and not rock the boat must not we? A lot of people voted for Farage ,be careful who you insult and be careful of the innate arrogance of your position - you do not have judging rights on who is extremist or indeed a nutter
I was very careful with my wording. By extremists and nutters I was thinking of, for example the BNP, who would probably have had representation at Westminster in the 2000s and early 2010s if we'd have PR but were kept out by FPTP.
And in the 1930s Mosely's crew would probably have gained quite a few seats at Westminster if we'd had PR rather than FPTP.
Note, I politely called Farage (and Galloway) "mavericks" , rather than extremists and nutters.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
Did we ?
Some constituencies did - and some had turnouts of 75% plus. And Labour won on a very small percentage of the vote for such a majority.
I'm not sure that part of the lack of 'democratic engagement' isn't just the electoral system. It would certainly be interesting to see how (if at all) turnout was affected if everyone's vote really did count towards representation in parliament for the party the most favoured. I'm pretty confident it would increase - and of course with PR you wouldn't have a massive Labour majority either. And you wouldn't be "shocked" at all at that, genuinely or otherwise.
I don't believe that we all collectively "shrugged our shoulders" - unless that's towards the government we now have. But that's the electoral system again to blame for that.
If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?
The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked
They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right
Patel?
Only Badenoch of that five is at all inspiring (Suella and Priti are low information politicians, the former is just creepy as well) while Jenrick and Tugendhat are vacuous Centrist Dad twerps. Cleverly or Kemi, I reckon.
The 121 Con seats result could have been soooo much worse. They've dodged a bullet I think.
It would be interesting, if anyone was ever that bored by life, to see if just half of reform votes in each constituency were added to Tory totals how many seats the Tories would have won.
I say half as it answers some arguments about not all reform voters being natural Tories in a simple and relatively fair way.
Rather than Reform I'd say the Tories had a bigger problem with voters who stayed at home, I suspect thats part of what is driving the turnout figures
VERY shy Tories who went fishing NOT voting was probably at least as significant as Tories who defected to Reform.
And looking at various seats, also defections to Labour (partly masked by Labour defections to Greens & Gaza Independents), Lib Dems AND Greens.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
The quality of Reform's candidates seems quite poor (not that that's ever been considered an encumbrance for the Tories) but apart from that I'd love there to be 91 of them.
Up to 91 Russian shills would be right up your strasse, but I can't disagree in the interests of fairness that's what we should have.
Russia's interests have been done a far bigger solid by us giving up the blast furnaces necessary to make virgin steel (needed for armaments manufacture) and our fracking ban and North Sea Oil taxes than they ever could by 91 'shills' entering the Commons. Shills would would probably want to reverse those highly damaging policies as I do.
You don't half spout some nonsense sometimes.
"Fracking ban" ! You're still obsessing about that in the face of all evidence.
Moving on, several journals - NYMag, Axios - have published absolutely brutal takedowns of Biden. It is now revealed that he regularly forgets names of close aides - people he sees daily. This is quite late stage dementia - this is like my mum and she’s in sheltered housing with regular nurse visits, and we’ve made sure she’s got no access to nuclear weapons so she can’t take out the neighbour (who she hates for no reason we can ascertain)
It’s quite staggering that Biden is still President, let alone trying to stand for ANOTHER TERM
I wonder if the Donor strike will be the thing that forces him out rather than bad press as without a huge war chest he’s got no chance anyway and it appears that the Disney heiress amongst other huge Dem backers has suspended donations unless he steps down.
If they give it to centrists like Tugendhat they may as well merge with the Lib Dems. What policy differences will they have?
The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked
They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right
Patel?
Only Badenoch of that five is at all inspiring (Suella and Priti are low information politicians, the former is just creepy as well) while Jenrick and Tugendhat are vacuous Centrist Dad twerps. Cleverly or Kemi, I reckon.
I think Kemi strikes just the right balance and could appeal to both wings of the party as long as she tones down the culture wars stuff a bit.
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
It demonstrates the electoral system is no longer fit for purpose. I don't suppose you'd be too concerned if Prime Minister Suella Braverman got a landslide on 10m votes.
PR is a requirement now.
I'd be extremely concerned.
In that case FPTP needs to be binned.
Not really, because we'd be looking at 91 Reform MPs this morning instead of 5
The quality of Reform's candidates seems quite poor (not that that's ever been considered an encumbrance for the Tories) but apart from that I'd love there to be 91 of them.
Up to 91 Russian shills would be right up your strasse, but I can't disagree in the interests of fairness that's what we should have.
Russia's interests have been done a far bigger solid by us giving up the blast furnaces necessary to make virgin steel (needed for armaments manufacture) and our fracking ban and North Sea Oil taxes than they ever could by 91 'shills' entering the Commons. Shills would would probably want to reverse those highly damaging policies as I do.
I hate to agree with you, but the closure of the blast furnaces in Port Talbot with Sunak's Government offering Tata sweeteners for replacing them with electric arc furnaces is insane.
The 121 Con seats result could have been soooo much worse. They've dodged a bullet I think.
It would be interesting, if anyone was ever that bored by life, to see if just half of reform votes in each constituency were added to Tory totals how many seats the Tories would have won.
I say half as it answers some arguments about not all reform voters being natural Tories in a simple and relatively fair way.
Rather than Reform I'd say the Tories had a bigger problem with voters who stayed at home, I suspect thats part of what is driving the turnout figures
Do you remember in the early 2000s a popular Tory refrain was “Thatcher and Major’s voters deserted us but they stopped voting rather than vote for Blair”?
Many of us said that was nonsense, turnout would never recover, and the Tories might not win again outright. Cameron’s types of victory (even 2015) seemed to confirm that theory. And then, somehow, in the crucible of Brexit and Boris they did get them back. And via Brexit they really got some non-voters voting.
Well they stopped voting again. I think the Tories need a northerner or a midlander to get them back.
I'm on balance for PR but if we had it there'd be almost 100 Reform MPs in parliament and at least 50 of them would be vile and/or inadequate individuals.
FPTP makes a party put in the hard yards to build up from the bottom and establish solid roots in places across the country before it gets anywhere close to power.
This provides a bulwark against "Entrepreneurial Political Startups" that have no organization or quality control standards returning large numbers of unsuitables off the back of a protest vote. They have to cement and deepen their support over time, become the real deal, before that can happen.
So you’ve suddenly decided FPTP is OK. lol
Wasn't my very first sentence "I'm on balance for PR"? - Let me check. Yes, it was.
But FPTP does have its strengths and I was pointing one out.
What you're saying is that a party which has a solid 14% of the vote doesn't deserve real representation in Parliament because you don't like them. That's just undemocratic, not a "real strength".
I'm genuinely shocked that Labour only got 9.7m votes, that's such a low number. I fear for democratic engagement in the UK if this keeps up. Forget the final result, it's absolutely shocking to me that the winning party got less than 10m votes. What does it say about us, the people, that in what is the most important election in a generation we collectively shrugged our shoulders.
Am I correct in thinking that Labour got both a lower number of votes AND a lower percentage share of the vote than May did when she lost her majority?
Yes, by a long margin. May increased the Tory vote share by 5.5% to 42.3% (13.6m votes) and lost 13 seats.
That's FPTP for you.
I think you got something wrong there - it was Corbyn who increased the votd
Comments
Suella Braverman, Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick, and Tom Tugendhat
[@benrileysmith]
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1809241280670585090
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwsRHuk0rZA
I suspect the likes of Tom Tugendhat and Jeremy Hunt will call on Dave.
Suella Braverman and Kemi Badenoch are likely to denounce Dave.
Next big political drama will probably be the Tory civil war kicking off in earnest. Might we see some shots fired in time for the Sunday papers?
Some scoffed when I said Greens, with solid established local organisation, the Gaza vote and a good set of locals behind them, could run a decent second in Huddersfield.
Even I had to rub my eyes to believe the Election Polling chart that Huddersfield is the Green's lowest swing target in the whole UK - their 5th best result.
Congratulations, and testament to the formidable political organisation of Cllr Andrew Cooper. I voted Labour, but hats off to the Greens.
The yawning open goal is on the right. 4m people voted for Reform. That’s why the Tories got fucked
They need to find a leader who can appeal to Reform voters without repelling the centre right
Patel?
https://youtu.be/xwsRHuk0rZA?t=229
NEW THREAD
A problem with your idea is that the people who were driving them to run the country that well, and who made the policy offering, were the right of the party.
After all, national service is a well-known Lib Dem policy...
https://x.com/ritapanahi/status/1809209745984639038?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Here he is trying to speak without a teleprompter, yesterday
https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1809029411947360521?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
It’s so tragic it’s not even funny any more
But FPTP does have its strengths and I was pointing one out.
And it sometimes works in US politics, too; the 1956 Eisenhower win is an obvious example. And there are many, many others.
Sometimes, because when voters think things are getting worse, "time for a change" usually wins.
There is nothing novel about such changes in strategy; as I learned from an entertaining essay" by Harold Morowitz, some bacteria and many speculators change, too, when the situation changes. Both cut their losses, but let their winnings run.
*"Bulls, Bears, and Bacteria" in his collection, The Wine of Life.
Con 13.97m > 6.81m
Lab 10.27m > 9.69m
LD 3.70m > 3.50m
Its that Con number that killed them. Major dropped 4.5m in 1997. Sunak just dropped 7.1m...
The only real choice is Badenoch or Tugendhat. And if the Tories really want to rebuild the Blue Wall it would really need to be Tom. He's a relatable type of Tory unlike the rest of the motley crew.
And in the 1930s Mosely's crew would probably have gained quite a few seats at Westminster if we'd had PR rather than FPTP.
Note, I politely called Farage (and Galloway) "mavericks" , rather than extremists and nutters.
Some constituencies did - and some had turnouts of 75% plus. And Labour won on a very small percentage of the vote for such a majority.
I'm not sure that part of the lack of 'democratic engagement' isn't just the electoral system. It would certainly be interesting to see how (if at all) turnout was affected if everyone's vote really did count towards representation in parliament for the party the most favoured.
I'm pretty confident it would increase - and of course with PR you wouldn't have a massive Labour majority either. And you wouldn't be "shocked" at all at that, genuinely or otherwise.
I don't believe that we all collectively "shrugged our shoulders" - unless that's towards the government we now have.
But that's the electoral system again to blame for that.
And looking at various seats, also defections to Labour (partly masked by Labour defections to Greens & Gaza Independents), Lib Dems AND Greens.
"Fracking ban" ! You're still obsessing about that in the face of all evidence.
Many of us said that was nonsense, turnout would never recover, and the Tories might not win again outright. Cameron’s types of victory (even 2015) seemed to confirm that theory. And then, somehow, in the crucible of Brexit and Boris they did get them back. And via Brexit they really got some non-voters voting.
Well they stopped voting again. I think the Tories need a northerner or a midlander to get them back.
That's just undemocratic, not a "real strength".
And I don't like them either.
We need PR.