Chief whip of a party with four seats. So that's one leader to give the orders, one chief whip to organise them and two others to vote as instructed. Lieutenant, Sergeant, two Privates. The British class structure in microcosm
I believe each party has to have a formal whip as part of the way business is run in the Commons.
Guido Fawkes said Liz Truss would go on to smash SKS in the election.
And one poster, Sean somebody, said she would surprise on the upside.
Tbf that same poster predicted that Corbyn would be PM in a hung parliament last time, and that Farage and his merry gang would make huge gains this time. In between telling us about his off-the-scale IQ and faultless track record of predictions….
Chief Whip? As if a group of 4 or 5 MPs needs more than 1 whip. The Reform Parliamentary Party will be a complete clown show.
He's the only one in the party with first-hand knowledge of procedure so is the obvious choice for the parliament-facing aspects of the whip job. But the party-management part is going to be a real bear trap for him - who really expects Refuk to hold together and work effectively?
Ed Davey has had a brilliant campaign. Most successful Lib Dem leader ever?
I'm feeling quite vindicated now in voting for Ed Davey rather than for Layla Moran in the leadership election a few years ago. Most of the other activists in my local party voted for Layla, and they were't too happy when the membership plumped for Ed rather than her. While I've nothing at all against Layla, it seemed to me that Ed would have more appeal outside of the party and, in particular, to the dissatisfied moderate Tories that we needed to reach. Well done, Ed!
What this means IMHO, is that the talk of a Tory civil war is overblown. The remaining MPs are likely to be less ideological and will mainly be looking for a safe pair of hands. I would put my money on Barclay.
It also wouldn't surprise me if we get 1-2 defections to Reform (perhaps Suella)
Ed Davey has had a brilliant campaign. Most successful Lib Dem leader ever?
A sensational campaign. How do we get attention for both ourselves and for our policies? Find a way to highlight them in a way that the media can't ignore. But don't do it once or twice. Do it again and again and again until the campaign itself is a story.
The zenith? The bungee jump. "Take the Leap" was the challenge. "Do something you've never done before".
And here it is. Our biggest win in a century. 71 seats, likely 72 seats tomorrow. Never mind the people saying we'd lose the by-election wins. Some of last night's wins were by-election swings. Extraordinary wins. A party machine which had a brilliant strategy and targeting, and was flexible enough to know when we had target seats in the bag to move to the next tranche. And then the tranche beyond that.
We lost a few which annoy - Hunt's seat a prime example. But hard to be upset with that haul. Or the way we set about it. I remain buzzing and grinning and all of that to have been part of it.
Note also the criticism Davey got on here for his stunts. Yet they worked.
I think he may be able to pull similar jinks off once more - though hopefully the Lib Dems won't be so desperate for attention next time. But I doubt any other politician could - it'd just be seen as copying these tactics.
Boring for lack of a better word is good. Boring is right. Boring works. And boring, you mark my words, has not only saved the Labour party but will save the UK.
If boring worked, John Major would have won in 1997 and Gordon Brown would still be PM.
Chief whip of a party with four seats. So that's one leader to give the orders, one chief whip to organise them and two others to vote as instructed. Lieutenant, Sergeant, two Privates. The British class structure in microcosm
I believe each party has to have a formal whip as part of the way business is run in the Commons.
Indeed. I just wish the working-class ex-miner wasn't the sergeant and the rich ex-City dealer wasn't the lieutenant. Can't he just grab him, kick his bottom, and take his chair?
Guido Fawkes said Liz Truss would go on to smash SKS in the election.
And one poster, Sean somebody, said she would surprise on the upside.
Tbf that same poster predicted that Corbyn would be PM in a hung parliament last time, and that Farage and his merry gang would make huge gains this time. In between telling us about his off-the-scale IQ and faultless track record of predictions….
To be fair, I think a lot of us thought that Truss would surprise on the upside, if only because there wasn't any space to surprise on the downside. I wasn't expecting her to grab a shovel and start digging.
I asked during the night but if the Gaza Indys got together into a parliamentary group, do they get Short money or is that only based on the election night results?
The funding available to parties with five or fewer Members is subject to a floor and ceiling, set at 50% and 150%, respectively, of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority’s (IPSA) staffing budget for non-London area MPs. For 2023/24, the staffing budget for non-London MPs is £236,170:
Which is now the problem for our Nigel. He’d like to spend his retirement propping up the saloon bar of some wood-beamed pub in west Kent, yet his politics force him to spend so much time in the armpits of our country like Clacton.
Boring for lack of a better word is good. Boring is right. Boring works. And boring, you mark my words, has not only saved the Labour party but will save the UK.
If boring worked, John Major would have won in 1997 and Gordon Brown would still be PM.
If boring worked, John Major would have won in 1992... Oh, hang on!
Boring for lack of a better word is good. Boring is right. Boring works. And boring, you mark my words, has not only saved the Labour party but will save the UK.
If boring worked, John Major would have won in 1997 and Gordon Brown would still be PM.
Well boring HAS worked as Labour have secured almost a 200 seat majority.
But give it a year or two and I suspect people will be ready for a bit of "excitement" again, lol!
Chief whip of a party with four seats. So that's one leader to give the orders, one chief whip to organise them and two others to vote as instructed. Lieutenant, Sergeant, two Privates. The British class structure in microcosm
One is reminded of Geoffrey Palmer in Fairly Secret Army.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
If the LDs didn't continue to push for it, I'd never vote for them again!
Less than 34% of the vote, and the Labour party have won a massive majority. How very very bizarre.
Labour's support is a mile wide and an inch deep, and we've now proved that you can gain less than 2% vote share and over 200 seats.
It also means the reverse can happen. 5 years from now the whole thing could switch and the Conservatives could take 200 back and form a government.
Fair point re the LDs - I am sure they'll stick with it.
I really think Starmer should move towards PR, a) because it's the right thing to do and b) because more cynically, it would block the Tory membership from ever again dictating how the country is run.
I doubt it will happen sadly, and struggle to see what the route would be even if Starmer saw things as I do.
Anyone with any political nouse will see the absolutely perilous situation that exists for Labour now (at least electorially).
All that needs to happen is for the opposition to form around one other party and Labour could be 200 seats down next time without losing a single vote.
But yes, there is no route through for Labour to solve that problem. Indeed, many of the 200 MPs they've just won who might be at risk of such a strategy will probably be unable to recognise the huge danger they are in.
In March 2029, we could all be talking about which Cabinet minister manages to retain his seat at the upcoming bloodbath, and whether Starmer himself will hang on or not.
That would require the vast army of tactical missiles to be recalibrated.
Cynic that I am, I just can't see it ever happening. Even going into the 2005 election when Labour had a massive majority the primary LibDem strategy was - checks notes - 'decapitating' as many senior Tories as possible.
Anti-Tory collusion is part of our system and has been for 30+ years. Everyone is in on it, including (maybe unwittingly, maybe not) Reform.
The Conservatives could've been knocked into third place yesterday, and still face a fight to hang on at the next election as resources are thrown at eliminating the last few stragglers.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
If the LDs didn't continue to push for it, I'd never vote for them again!
Less than 34% of the vote, and the Labour party have won a massive majority. How very very bizarre.
Labour's support is a mile wide and an inch deep, and we've now proved that you can gain less than 2% vote share and over 200 seats.
It also means the reverse can happen. 5 years from now the whole thing could switch and the Conservatives could take 200 back and form a government.
Fair point re the LDs - I am sure they'll stick with it.
I really think Starmer should move towards PR, a) because it's the right thing to do and b) because more cynically, it would block the Tory membership from ever again dictating how the country is run.
I doubt it will happen sadly, and struggle to see what the route would be even if Starmer saw things as I do.
Anyone with any political nouse will see the absolutely perilous situation that exists for Labour now (at least electorially).
All that needs to happen is for the opposition to form around one other party and Labour could be 200 seats down next time without losing a single vote.
But yes, there is no route through for Labour to solve that problem. Indeed, many of the 200 MPs they've just won who might be at risk of such a strategy will probably be unable to recognise the huge danger they are in.
In March 2029, we could all be talking about which Cabinet minister manages to retain his seat at the upcoming bloodbath, and whether Starmer himself will hang on or not.
That would require the vast army of tactical missiles to be recalibrated.
Cynic that I am, I just can't see it ever happening. Even going into the 2005 election when Labour had a massive majority the primary LibDem strategy was - checks notes - 'decapitating' as many senior Tories as possible.
Anti-Tory collusion is part of our system and has been for 30+ years. Everyone is in on it, including (maybe unwittingly, maybe not) Reform.
The Conservatives could've been knocked into third place yesterday, and still face a fight to hang on at the next election as resources are thrown at eliminating the last few stragglers.
Toryphobia - the last acceptable prejudice.
There's also bye-election attrition to consider over the Parliament. In theory they should do better if they are not in Government. But will that pan out?
All pretty irrelevant really, Labour are in for 5 years barring a nuclear war. Reform will probably drift away in 2 - 3 years, Conservatives will struggle to recover as after 1997, and there is an opportunity for the Lib Dems, but they will need a plan starting September over 5 years to pull their profile and results together in their desert lands, almost the whole of the Midlands and the North. Party with the best opportunity will be the Greens.
Chief whip of a party with four seats. So that's one leader to give the orders, one chief whip to organise them and two others to vote as instructed. Lieutenant, Sergeant, two Privates. The British class structure in microcosm
One is reminded of Geoffrey Palmer in Fairly Secret Army.
Likely five, plus Jim Allister (Antrim North) My daily photo ration in case people were not aware of what TUV campaigned as
My daily photo ration in case people were not aware what TUV camprigned as
Chief whip of a party with four seats. So that's one leader to give the orders, one chief whip to organise them and two others to vote as instructed. Lieutenant, Sergeant, two Privates. The British class structure in microcosm
One is reminded of Geoffrey Palmer in Fairly Secret Army.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
15+ in both 1945 and 1950 depending on how exactly you count the various minor groups. Rather more in the 1920s and 1930s, with all the various Liberal and Labour splinters...
Jack W. Looks like Lib Dem seat 72. From the Inverness Courier: "Count agents have widely credited Liberal Democrat Angus MacDonald with having pulled off a major upset and secured the Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire seat ahead of the SNP’s Drew Hendry.
But a botched ballot count means a second recount to make it official means that he will have to wait until tomorrow to know for sure if he has won while Mr Hendry is in the inevitable position of waiting for certainty he has not won.
The calculus is quite simple as by the end of the night Mr MacDonald had between three and four more boxes than Mr Hendry – in each box there are 500 ballots so the margin of victory was likely between 1500 and 2000 votes".
With trhe Mid Dumbarton small landslide the Lib Dems in Scotland are clawing their way back, they need to tackle the Border areas which they used to represent.
If Farage is more visible to the public over the next five years does that help, or does it prevent a Reform surge next time because he's no longer the new thing?
I asked during the night but if the Gaza Indys got together into a parliamentary group, do they get Short money or is that only based on the election night results?
The funding available to parties with five or fewer Members is subject to a floor and ceiling, set at 50% and 150%, respectively, of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority’s (IPSA) staffing budget for non-London area MPs. For 2023/24, the staffing budget for non-London MPs is £236,170: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01663/
One of the pdfs that page links to has the answer:
"2.2 Financial assistance to assist an opposition party in carrying out its parliamentary business shall be available if— a) There are at that time at least two Members of the House who are members of the party and who were elected at the previous General Election after contesting it as candidates for the party, or b) There is at that time one such Member who was so elected and the aggregate of the votes cast in favour of all the party’s candidates at that election was at least 150,000"
and the explanatory note says specifically that this rules out new parties created after the election (as well as some cases where a party only gets over the qualifying line due to defections from another party).
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
My feeling is that the answer is about 150, with 200+ second places (or 3-way marginal 3rd places) and with the number of MPs having increased since last time round.
With so few MP's we'll presumably see what's left of the Conservative Party "doubling up" on shadow cabinet and shadow ministerial jobs as well as a return for the shadow cabinet of grandees like David Davis and IDS?
Opposition parties get public funding (known as Short money) based on the number of seats and votes they win. Here's what different parties can expect each year: • Conservatives – £5.05m • Liberal Democrats – £2.27m • Reform – £961k • Green – £501k • SNP – £344k…
…For comparison, here's what the parties could have expect if they'd won the same number of seats/votes as last election: • Conservatives – n/a (gov) • Liberal Democrats – £1.03m • Reform – n/a (did not exist) • Green – £200k • SNP – £1.53m
I asked during the night but if the Gaza Indys got together into a parliamentary group, do they get Short money or is that only based on the election night results?
And you got your answer, if you had read downthread,
If Farage is more visible to the public over the next five years does that help, or does it prevent a Reform surge next time because he's no longer the new thing?
A lot will depend on whether he's takes a leaf out of Le Pen's book and finds a younger protégé or two. If not then Reform will struggle to extend their support beyond the current level.
Chief whip of a party with four seats. So that's one leader to give the orders, one chief whip to organise them and two others to vote as instructed. Lieutenant, Sergeant, two Privates. The British class structure in microcosm
One is reminded of Geoffrey Palmer in Fairly Secret Army.
Likely five, plus Jim Allister (Antrim North) My daily photo ration in case people were not aware of what TUV campaigned as
My daily photo ration in case people were not aware what TUV camprigned as
Farage, of course, endorsed Allister's rival, Ian Paisley.
TUV campaigned on the basis of the DUP having been gulled by the Tories, only for them to have been scammed by Refuk in turn.
I asked during the night but if the Gaza Indys got together into a parliamentary group, do they get Short money or is that only based on the election night results?
The funding available to parties with five or fewer Members is subject to a floor and ceiling, set at 50% and 150%, respectively, of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority’s (IPSA) staffing budget for non-London area MPs. For 2023/24, the staffing budget for non-London MPs is £236,170:
If Farage is more visible to the public over the next five years does that help, or does it prevent a Reform surge next time because he's no longer the new thing?
A clever political friend of mine has just texted me this:
“Staggering how well Reform have fared. Think they will be big players in the next election, could even win it”
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
If the LDs didn't continue to push for it, I'd never vote for them again!
Less than 34% of the vote, and the Labour party have won a massive majority. How very very bizarre.
Labour's support is a mile wide and an inch deep, and we've now proved that you can gain less than 2% vote share and over 200 seats.
It also means the reverse can happen. 5 years from now the whole thing could switch and the Conservatives could take 200 back and form a government.
Fair point re the LDs - I am sure they'll stick with it.
I really think Starmer should move towards PR, a) because it's the right thing to do and b) because more cynically, it would block the Tory membership from ever again dictating how the country is run.
I doubt it will happen sadly, and struggle to see what the route would be even if Starmer saw things as I do.
Anyone with any political nouse will see the absolutely perilous situation that exists for Labour now (at least electorially).
All that needs to happen is for the opposition to form around one other party and Labour could be 200 seats down next time without losing a single vote.
But yes, there is no route through for Labour to solve that problem. Indeed, many of the 200 MPs they've just won who might be at risk of such a strategy will probably be unable to recognise the huge danger they are in.
In March 2029, we could all be talking about which Cabinet minister manages to retain his seat at the upcoming bloodbath, and whether Starmer himself will hang on or not.
If Labour has sense and a strategic view (which Starmer is supposed to be renowned for) then they’d deliver PR for local government towards the end of their current term and then progress to some sort of electoral reform in their second term.
Opposition parties get public funding (known as Short money) based on the number of seats and votes they win. Here's what different parties can expect each year: • Conservatives – £5.05m • Liberal Democrats – £2.27m • Reform – £961k • Green – £501k • SNP – £344k…
…For comparison, here's what the parties could have expect if they'd won the same number of seats/votes as last election: • Conservatives – n/a (gov) • Liberal Democrats – £1.03m • Reform – n/a (did not exist) • Green – £200k • SNP – £1.53m
I asked during the night but if the Gaza Indys got together into a parliamentary group, do they get Short money or is that only based on the election night results?
And you got your answer, if you had read downthread,
No need to get annoyed, it was quite busy with comments last night.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
Big question for the SNP after last night is this;
How do you deliver in government in 18 months when Labour are clear there will be no more money quickly and you claim you need billions to fix the problems you've been unable to for 17 years?
Trending slowly to the national average, though it will have to accelerate rapidly to keep up with the forthcoming massive reduction due to VAT on fees
With so few MP's we'll presumably see what's left of the Conservative Party "doubling up" on shadow cabinet and shadow ministerial jobs as well as a return for the shadow cabinet of grandees like David Davis and IDS?
Doubling up, certainly - not sure about brining in grandees just yet. I'd expect Sunak to form a bare minimum shad cab for now, and leave decisions on grandees vs lords etc to his successor.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
Watching the ministerial parade along Downing Street. The new cabinet being funnelled down the road in an orderly but rapid fashion. I think Starmer wishes to demonstrate that they're going to waste no time getting down to work.
So what were the 3 key headlines from the election?
I'd say:
1) Labour landslide but on only 34% of the vote
2) SNP get their just deserts: 9 seats lol
3) Reform win 4/5 seats
(LibDems impressive rise in seat numbers just edged out in my top three.)
The huge number of seats won on low shares of the vote. This is massively important, because it reduces the size of the swings needed for large changes at the next GE.
This is a consequence of the large drop in the two-party share, which the seat gains by the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all a consequence of.
I think it's fair to talk about five party politics.
Ed Davey has had a brilliant campaign. Most successful Lib Dem leader ever?
I'm feeling quite vindicated now in voting for Ed Davey rather than for Layla Moran in the leadership election a few years ago. Most of the other activists in my local party voted for Layla, and they were't too happy when the membership plumped for Ed rather than her. While I've nothing at all against Layla, it seemed to me that Ed would have more appeal outside of the party and, in particular, to the dissatisfied moderate Tories that we needed to reach. Well done, Ed!
I voted for the Lib Dems this time because of Davey's caring for each other video. I like the idea of more optimism and kindness in our politics..
Full recount at South Basildon and East Thurrock. I am here and people are counting very carefully Looks like a two horse race between Labour and Reform. Watch @itvnews for updates."
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
So what were the 3 key headlines from the election?
I'd say:
1) Labour landslide but on only 34% of the vote
2) SNP get their just deserts: 9 seats lol
3) Reform win 4/5 seats
(LibDems impressive rise in seat numbers just edged out in my top three.)
The huge number of seats won on low shares of the vote. This is massively important, because it reduces the size of the swings needed for large changes at the next GE.
This is a consequence of the large drop in the two-party share, which the seat gains by the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all a consequence of.
I think it's fair to talk about five party politics.
To a first approximation everywhere became Scotland 2015.
If Farage is more visible to the public over the next five years does that help, or does it prevent a Reform surge next time because he's no longer the new thing?
A lot will depend on whether he's takes a leaf out of Le Pen's book and finds a younger protégé or two. If not then Reform will struggle to extend their support beyond the current level.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
I kinda hope you’re right. That means Starmer will have genuinely sorted some of our worst problems. That’s why I voted for him
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
With so few MP's we'll presumably see what's left of the Conservative Party "doubling up" on shadow cabinet and shadow ministerial jobs as well as a return for the shadow cabinet of grandees like David Davis and IDS?
Doubling up, certainly - not sure about brining in grandees just yet. I'd expect Sunak to form a bare minimum shad cab for now, and leave decisions on grandees vs lords etc to his successor.
With so few MP's we'll presumably see what's left of the Conservative Party "doubling up" on shadow cabinet and shadow ministerial jobs as well as a return for the shadow cabinet of grandees like David Davis and IDS?
Doubling up, certainly - not sure about brining in grandees just yet. I'd expect Sunak to form a bare minimum shad cab for now, and leave decisions on grandees vs lords etc to his successor.
It is an interesting one. 120 MPs presumably means a up to a quarter of the party are shadow ministers, because they won’t, as a party, want to accept they aren’t big enough to shadow everything.
If they go full ego trip and shadow every minister they only just about have enough troops to do that as well as take up the committee posts they will be owed….
Watching the ministerial parade along Downing Street. The new cabinet being funnelled down the road in an orderly but rapid fashion. I think Starmer wishes to demonstrate that they're going to waste no time getting down to work.
To be fair he needs to get it sorted before he clocks off work for the day in just under three hours time.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
My guess is that many of these are Tories whi just couldn't Tory again. Not this time. Not with lockdown/ partygate/pinchergate/the Trussterfuck/HS2 cancellation/National Service /.../.../....
Watching the ministerial parade along Downing Street. The new cabinet being funnelled down the road in an orderly but rapid fashion. I think Starmer wishes to demonstrate that they're going to waste no time getting down to work.
To be fair he needs to get it sorted before he clocks off work for the day in just under three hours time.
The Culture War is going to really kick off now. A rampant Reform and a highly energised left wing of Greens/Gaza/JSO.
Is PB ready?
Labour's vast majority means both are going to be irrelevant in terms of parliamentary politics. I'd guess Refuk will prove to be more successful of attracting attention outside of that.
I wonder if they're in danger of sounding like they're howling at the moon if the govt don't engage
Starmer's such a lucky general; he just managed to get 291 more seats than the Tories. Incredibly lucky.
I think I'd rather have support that's a mile wide and an inch deep than support that's an inch wide and an inch deep.
By the way, I thought Starmer's Downing St. speech was very impressive. Those itching for his early downfall are going to be very disappointed.
I liked and rated that speech too. And he really has to succeed otherwise Farage will run riot with his MAGA style "we want our country back" shit aimed at xenophobes, angry andys and simple simons. I'm genuinely optimistic that he will. I think he's going to be one of the best PMs we've had in modern times.
So what were the 3 key headlines from the election?
I'd say:
1) Labour landslide but on only 34% of the vote
2) SNP get their just deserts: 9 seats lol
3) Reform win 4/5 seats
(LibDems impressive rise in seat numbers just edged out in my top three.)
The huge number of seats won on low shares of the vote. This is massively important, because it reduces the size of the swings needed for large changes at the next GE.
This is a consequence of the large drop in the two-party share, which the seat gains by the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all a consequence of.
I think it's fair to talk about five party politics.
I'd not appreciated fully until wading through this thread just how many hyper marginals this election has created. Just looking at Labour defences, there are now 60 Labour MPs that can be toppled by swings of under 3%, including 25 seats with majorities of under 1,000 votes and available on swings of under 1%. It points towards the potential for huge volatility.
LDs don't really need PR anymore it seems. Tories? I doubt they'll have the chutzpah to switch their stance, even though FPTP has shafted them this time. Labour? Er... no. Reform and Greens will continue to bang the drum from the margins, I guess.
We bloody well do need PR. This is the stupidest election possible. Labour have won a LANDSLIDE with LESS THAN 34% of the vote. Reform got 14.3% of the vote and 4 seats. We got 12.2% of the vote and 71 seats - which btw is 9 short of proportionality.
First Past the Post has shat itself totally.
Absolutely. Imagine re-running last night without Reform.
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
I know this website loves a good debate about PR. And it is easy to criticise. And contemplate alternative scenarios were FPTP waved away. But “if my auntie had balls she’d be my uncle.”
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
How many people “voted Labour for the first time”? This isn’t like Blair in 1997. They got 33.7% of the vote
I appreciate that it isn’t 1997. But I was thinking of places like where I live. In Macclesfield an extra 7,000 voted Labour against 2019 (and there hasn’t been any real boundary changes). I am sure there are other seats - and as I said these voters could vanish at the first whiff of difficulties for Labour. But, there is a chance that a few will stick around.
My guess is that many of these are Tories whi just couldn't Tory again. Not this time. Not with lockdown/ partygate/pinchergate/the Trussterfuck/HS2 cancellation/National Service /.../.../....
Yes they will be like me. I was tempted to go reform but nigel’s Putin chat nixed that
No way I could go with the Tories after their many many failures - migration boats and tax being just the worst. So I held my nose and said Right give starmer a chance and a good majority so he’s got a stable foundation to enact real change
It was a one-off. I won’t do it again unless Starmer really succeeds. Radically repairs the NHS etc
He’s got one shot and one term then people like me will go elsewhere
"So. Farewell then conservatism The last train of the old life has finally departed Peter Hitchens
Conservatism has died, not from an assassin’s bullet, or even from old age or because it was run over by a bus. It has died because there is no call for it anymore. This isn’t to say that nobody wants it, but that nobody cares that we want it. The same thing has happened to most of the things I like, from the forgotten Aztec chocolate bar to railway restaurant cars, from woodland peace to proper funerals.
In fact, conservatism — not to be mistaken for its loud, overdressed cousin, the Conservative Party, which somehow lives on — will probably not even get a proper funeral. Its passing will not be marked by sonorous gloom and penitence, and stern dark poetry borne away on the wind at the muddy edge of a deep, sad grave. Nobody can stand that sort of thing now. It will get a cheerful informal send-off with jokes and applause. After all, it won’t be there to hate it. I shan’t be there either. There will be no call for me."
The Culture War is going to really kick off now. A rampant Reform and a highly energised left wing of Greens/Gaza/JSO.
Is PB ready?
Labour's vast majority means both are going to be irrelevant in terms of parliamentary politics. I'd guess Refuk will prove to be more successful of attracting attention outside of that.
I wonder if they're in danger of sounding like they're howling at the moon if the govt don't engage
I suppose he can just sit above it all and make incremental improvements in a quiet way.
So what were the 3 key headlines from the election?
I'd say:
1) Labour landslide but on only 34% of the vote
2) SNP get their just deserts: 9 seats lol
3) Reform win 4/5 seats
(LibDems impressive rise in seat numbers just edged out in my top three.)
The huge number of seats won on low shares of the vote. This is massively important, because it reduces the size of the swings needed for large changes at the next GE.
This is a consequence of the large drop in the two-party share, which the seat gains by the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all a consequence of.
I think it's fair to talk about five party politics.
I'd not appreciated fully until wading through this thread just how many hyper marginals this election has created. Just looking at Labour defences, there are now 60 Labour MPs that can be toppled by swings of under 3%, including 25 seats with majorities of under 1,000 votes and available on swings of under 1%. It points towards the potential for huge volatility.
It means starmer has to be careful in a way Blair didn’t. Half his MPs can disappear on a small swing than bang he’s back in opposition
Comments
I guess Farage thinks Anderson is as thick as two short planks like the rest of us and has given him a non-job! 😂
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/07/05/biden-first-black-woman-serve-with-black-president/
I think he may be able to pull similar jinks off once more - though hopefully the Lib Dems won't be so desperate for attention next time. But I doubt any other politician could - it'd just be seen as copying these tactics.
Well done to the Lib Dems.
I asked during the night but if the Gaza Indys got together into a parliamentary group, do they get Short money or is that only based on the election night results?
The funding available to parties with five or fewer Members is subject to a floor and ceiling, set at 50% and 150%, respectively, of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority’s (IPSA) staffing budget for non-London area MPs. For 2023/24, the staffing budget for non-London MPs is £236,170:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01663/
But give it a year or two and I suspect people will be ready for a bit of "excitement" again, lol!
Starmer government: 13% cabinet privately educated
Sunak government: 61% of cabinet privately educated
Blair 1st government: 32% of cabinet privately educated
https://x.com/PickardJE/status/1809207382150361109
He should have followed Lee Anderson as he might have kept it.
https://x.com/GMB/status/1809114873894228261
That would require the vast army of tactical missiles to be recalibrated.
Cynic that I am, I just can't see it ever happening. Even going into the 2005 election when Labour had a massive majority the primary LibDem strategy was - checks notes - 'decapitating' as many senior Tories as possible.
Anti-Tory collusion is part of our system and has been for 30+ years. Everyone is in on it, including (maybe unwittingly, maybe not) Reform.
The Conservatives could've been knocked into third place yesterday, and still face a fight to hang on at the next election as resources are thrown at eliminating the last few stragglers.
Toryphobia - the last acceptable prejudice.
With a majority about 5x bigger.
Gah !
Organisation #FAIL for Labour.
Theresa Villiers had better not have survived the election.
Reform will probably drift away in 2 - 3 years, Conservatives will struggle to recover as after 1997, and there is an opportunity for the Lib Dems, but they will need a plan starting September over 5 years to pull their profile and results together in their desert lands, almost the whole of the Midlands and the North.
Party with the best opportunity will be the Greens.
Very reminiscent in style and content with Clement Atlee. For example:
https://youtu.be/gSy0bXg73kA
My daily photo ration in case people were not aware of what TUV campaigned as
My daily photo ration in case people were not aware what TUV camprigned as
The interesting question is, what is the minimum number of MPs you need in the current parliament in order to present yourself and pitch for becoming the government, with your leader as PM, at the next election? Answers on a postcard….
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1809220572460577076
We now wait for Norstat.
AFAICS there were a lot more than six.
Even the number of votes - 4 million vs 5 million for UKIP 2015, says continuity UKIP.
"Count agents have widely credited Liberal Democrat Angus MacDonald with having pulled off a major upset and secured the Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire seat ahead of the SNP’s Drew Hendry.
But a botched ballot count means a second recount to make it official means that he will have to wait until tomorrow to know for sure if he has won while Mr Hendry is in the inevitable position of waiting for certainty he has not won.
The calculus is quite simple as by the end of the night Mr MacDonald had between three and four more boxes than Mr Hendry – in each box there are 500 ballots so the margin of victory was likely between 1500 and 2000 votes".
With trhe Mid Dumbarton small landslide the Lib Dems in Scotland are clawing their way back, they need to tackle the Border areas which they used to represent.
"2.2 Financial assistance to assist an opposition party in carrying out its parliamentary
business shall be available if—
a) There are at that time at least two Members of the House who are members of
the party and who were elected at the previous General Election after contesting
it as candidates for the party, or
b) There is at that time one such Member who was so elected and the aggregate of
the votes cast in favour of all the party’s candidates at that election was at least
150,000"
and the explanatory note says specifically that this rules out new parties created after the election (as well as some cases where a party only gets over the qualifying line due to defections from another party).
TUV campaigned on the basis of the DUP having been gulled by the Tories, only for them to have been scammed by Refuk in turn.
I'd say:
1) Labour landslide but on only 34% of the vote
2) SNP get their just deserts: 9 seats lol
3) Reform win 4/5 seats
(LibDems impressive rise in seat numbers just edged out in my top three.)
The funding available to parties with five or fewer Members is subject to a floor and ceiling, set at 50% and 150%, respectively, of the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority’s (IPSA) staffing budget for non-London area MPs. For 2023/24, the staffing budget for non-London MPs is £236,170:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01663/
They would have to be registered as a political party, not just a parliamentary group.
“Staggering how well Reform have fared. Think they will be big players in the next election, could even win it”
True man of the people, is our Nige.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cldyeykzp33o
Parties can only play according to the rules of the game - not the rules as they may like them to be. In FPTP voter efficiency is name of the game. On that score Labour really nailed it in 2024 - or the Conservatives made it easy for Labour. Notably in 2017 they piled up votes where they didn’t need them. Labour’s 2024 wins are broad, but lack depth.
That lack of depth may be a challenge if times get tough - and opposition to Labour gets organised. However, there is at least a chance that the opposite happens. That Labour lays roots in those seats where they have not won before - or at least does so in a few of the gains. People voted for Labour for their first time yesterday have popped their cherry. Who’s to say they won’t do it again in 2028/29? Even if that happens only in a few places it may mean a dramatic change for Labour. Less Northern and Cities only. But the provinces too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/results
This is a consequence of the large drop in the two-party share, which the seat gains by the Lib Dems, Reform and the Greens are all a consequence of.
I think it's fair to talk about five party politics.
@AntoineSpeaker
Full recount at South Basildon and East Thurrock.
I am here and people are counting very carefully
Looks like a two horse race between Labour and Reform.
Watch
@itvnews
for updates."
https://x.com/AntoineSpeaker/status/1809219586128064980
Is PB ready?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/george-cottrell-nigel-farage-reform-uk-montenegro
But it was more in hope than expectation. I expect him to fail - and then I think we will see Britain go down the same hard right route as Italy and Sweden and France and the USA
If they go full ego trip and shadow every minister they only just about have enough troops to do that as well as take up the committee posts they will be owed….
Everyone gets a job! Trebles all round!
Sometimes I miss working in a consultancy.
I wonder if they're in danger of sounding like they're howling at the moon if the govt don't engage
https://members.parliament.uk/members/commons?partyid=4&page=6
No way I could go with the Tories after their many many failures - migration boats and tax being just the worst. So I held my nose and said Right give starmer a chance and a good majority so he’s got a stable foundation to enact real change
It was a one-off. I won’t do it again unless Starmer really succeeds. Radically repairs the NHS etc
He’s got one shot and one term then people like me will go elsewhere
The last train of the old life has finally departed
Peter Hitchens
Conservatism has died, not from an assassin’s bullet, or even from old age or because it was run over by a bus. It has died because there is no call for it anymore. This isn’t to say that nobody wants it, but that nobody cares that we want it. The same thing has happened to most of the things I like, from the forgotten Aztec chocolate bar to railway restaurant cars, from woodland peace to proper funerals.
In fact, conservatism — not to be mistaken for its loud, overdressed cousin, the Conservative Party, which somehow lives on — will probably not even get a proper funeral. Its passing will not be marked by sonorous gloom and penitence, and stern dark poetry borne away on the wind at the muddy edge of a deep, sad grave. Nobody can stand that sort of thing now. It will get a cheerful informal send-off with jokes and applause. After all, it won’t be there to hate it. I shan’t be there either. There will be no call for me."
https://unherd.com/2024/07/and-so-farewell-conservatism/
I wish I had that kind of maturity...