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Some election stats as Starmer becomes PM – politicalbetting.com
Some election stats as Starmer becomes PM – politicalbetting.com
If Reform UK's vote had been as efficient as Labour's in this election they would have won 174 seats rather than four.
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Starmers washed
/s
(well it was a little boring)
Reform cost the Tories, especially in market towns, rural areas and ex industrial area cities they won in 2019
So did the Sunaks come to think of it.
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4h
Congratulations Sir @Keir_Starmer on your victory. Pleased with our first discussion.
We will continue the work begun with the UK for our bilateral cooperation, for peace and security in Europe, for the climate and for AI.
https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1809132071811448993
Starmer doesn't care about the youth.
There. I. Said. It.
Of course he is right, though, that it is action not rhetoric that counts. Let's see what action happens in the next 100 days.
This is how you do a transfer of power from one party to another.
No rancour, no violence.
Our constitutional crises involve lettuces.
how deep do labour dig into the covid contracts?
Starmer is exceptionally well qualified to make that judgment....
They don't. Labour lost potential voters to Reform during the campaign - many of whom would have never voted Tory. People felt free to vote Green or other in larger numbers knowing a Labour majority was a certainty. The Tories lost votes to the Lib Dems in the south they need to win back.
Bringing back together a winning coalition of the right won't be easy. It's doable, but requires someone to unite the different wings rather than throw their lot in with a Reform-esque platform. I suspect the Tories will learn the wrong lessons from the vote detail and do exactly that.
As for Labour, I can only hope Starmer takes the opportunity of a large majority for significant reform straight away. He's over 60 himself so hopefully less inclined to wanting a 10-15 year term, but instead be effective early on.
“If I were you I’d reverse what I did to win this massive majority”
If I were you, I’d focus now on a massive charm offensive to win back the left wing and minority voters you abused and insulted, believing we were irrelevant and had nowhere to go.
There is no sign you’re going to do that.
Please, don’t let me interrupt you!
https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1809188682089279683
There’s a decent drive down to the Sussex coast too.
If you don't care, and don't vote, you don't get a say. That's their choice.
Palestine for the left
Done
https://www.reformparty.uk/south-basildon-and-east-thurrock-constituency
Farage in Clacton, Tice in Boston / Skegness, Lowe (who he?) in Great Yarmouth. And the Leeanderthal Man.
Set in Crimpton-on-Sea, Essex, in the late 1950s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8dzBPlXSzQ
The TOTP version, which I did not know existed. Warning - incoming (clothed) Keith Chegwin in a Green jumper. The things they did for money:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8dzBPlXSzQ
Reform vote percentage 14 -15.99% band (10 bf)
Turnout 57.50 - 59.99% band (8.3 bf)
Con seats 100-149 band (4.0 bf)
Tewkesbury LD (20/1 Bet365)
Honiton & Sidmouth LD (5/2 Bet365)
Ashfield Reform (13/5 Bet365)
A chunky bet on Con to lose over 200 seats (1.83 bf)
All winners.
Narrow 43/1 loser!:
Labour vote percentage 34.00 - 35.99%
Very good election for my bets. Would have been even better if it were not for Magic Grandpa.
Other than Mason the BBC presenters on R4 seem unbelievably glum.
Sarah Montague focusing on Ashworth, Streeting and Phillip's performances. I'm sad for her, she's very upset.
And one poster, Sean somebody, said she would surprise on the upside.
And above all they need Starmer to cock up in some way that cuts through to the non-tribal share of the electorate (I'm guessing planning reform and changes to local government taxation or some Nut Zero overreach could conceivably do that but who knows?) and gets the missing voters back to the ballot box.
The Cons must come together and select a strong leader; May, Johnson and Sunak were not that.
Without going through every seat, I think there are only about 10 of their previous subscribers left. Equally a lot of the One Nation Caucus have also lost their seats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation_Conservatives_(caucus)
What this means IMHO, is that the talk of a Tory civil war is overblown. The remaining MPs are likely to be less ideological and will mainly be looking for a safe pair of hands. I would put my money on Barclay.
It also wouldn't surprise me if we get 1-2 defections to Reform (perhaps Suella)
However, there is an awful lot on his in tray and labours traditional solutions will make things worse.
Without being hyperbolic, Labours future rests principally on Rachel Reeves shoulders and Starmers willingness to let her do things that will have the left of the party and the Libdems, and even some "one nation" conservatives up in arms.
His large majority with losses of inner city seats and gains of places like Hitchin will help.
However, if Starmer bottles it like Blair did with Frank Field and neuters or removes her, then Farage will be hovering like a vulture in 2029.
I thought Jess Phillips won?
The Conservatives are a lot more vulnerable the other way. They were lucky to avoid an even more cataclysmic result.