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Some election stats as Starmer becomes PM – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 5 in General
Some election stats as Starmer becomes PM – politicalbetting.com

If Reform UK's vote had been as efficient as Labour's in this election they would have won 174 seats rather than four.

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,748
    Boring speech booooo do something!!!

    Starmers washed
    /s

    (well it was a little boring)
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553

    Boring speech booooo do something!!!

    Starmers washed
    /s

    (well it was a little boring)

    Nowt wrong with Boring it's competency I want..
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,602
    I saw those UNS numbers. SNP 53? Really?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Yes Labour vote rose most in their target seats but fell in many inner city seats which gave them their big majority with FPTP.

    Reform cost the Tories, especially in market towns, rural areas and ex industrial area cities they won in 2019
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    Good speech from SKS I thought. Not flash, just Keir.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727

    Boring speech booooo do something!!!

    Starmers washed
    /s

    (well it was a little boring)

    Boring for lack of a better word is good. Boring is right. Boring works. And boring, you mark my words, has not only saved the Labour party but will save the UK.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Sir Keir and Lady Starmer make for an attractive couple.

    So did the Sunaks come to think of it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited July 5
    @EmmanuelMacron
    ·
    4h
    Congratulations Sir @Keir_Starmer on your victory. Pleased with our first discussion.

    We will continue the work begun with the UK for our bilateral cooperation, for peace and security in Europe, for the climate and for AI.
    https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1809132071811448993
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 61,210
    Good speech by Starmer and now he has to deliver or as is clear in these stats he may not get the 10 years he wants
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,120
    Excellent start.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462

    Shed a little tear I have to admit

    Me too, maybe it's only having 2 hours' sleep and still being a bit drunk from last night.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    I think I saw a child reach a hand out to the PM when he was greeting supporters and he was left hanging.

    Starmer doesn't care about the youth.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,454
    kle4 said:

    Sir Keir and Lady Starmer make for an attractive couple.

    So did the Sunaks come to think of it.

    Oi - that kind of commentary is Sunil's job. Honestly, labour get back to power and people start taking other peoples' jobs...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Shed a little tear I have to admit

    Me too, maybe it's only having 2 hours' sleep and still being a bit drunk from last night.
    About the same as most nights?
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    FossFoss Posts: 750
    Someone on wikipedia isn’t optimistic about British democracy - they’ve gone and tagged the ‘Next United Kingdom general election’ article for speedy deletion!
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    kle4 said:

    Sir Keir and Lady Starmer make for an attractive couple.

    So did the Sunaks come to think of it.

    They need to be to balance out this horror show.


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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    Not sure how statistically valid that Reform/drive graph is. Those blobs on the right are hiding a lot of other blobs. May just be a random correlation.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296

    Shed a little tear I have to admit

    Me too, maybe it's only having 2 hours' sleep and still being a bit drunk from last night.
    You are a flint knapper and I claim £5
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    There will be a first crisis and a first scandal and a first resignation and a first reckoning and then we will see what we have.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited July 5
    EPG said:

    I saw those UNS numbers. SNP 53? Really?

    It's the flaw with UNS when the Tories fall 20% GB wide versus a 'regional' party like the SNP and Labour doing better in Scotland than GB wide.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,748
    HYUFD said:

    @EmmanuelMacron
    ·
    4h
    Congratulations Sir @Keir_Starmer on your victory. Pleased with our first discussion.

    We will continue the work begun with the UK for our bilateral cooperation, for peace and security in Europe, for the climate and for AI.
    https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1809132071811448993

    Rather hopeful from Macron given the way he's going.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    kle4 said:

    Sir Keir and Lady Starmer make for an attractive couple.

    So did the Sunaks come to think of it.

    Oi - that kind of commentary is Sunil's job. Honestly, labour get back to power and people start taking other peoples' jobs...
    Victoria is better looking than Akshata?

    There. I. Said. It.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462
    kle4 said:

    Shed a little tear I have to admit

    Me too, maybe it's only having 2 hours' sleep and still being a bit drunk from last night.
    About the same as most nights?
    Oi! I normally get 8 hours and rarely drink during the week.
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,798

    There will be a first crisis and a first scandal and a first resignation and a first reckoning and then we will see what we have.

    Streeting's twitter history might bubble up into the newspapers at some point...
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    carnforth said:

    There will be a first crisis and a first scandal and a first resignation and a first reckoning and then we will see what we have.

    Streeting's twitter history might bubble up into the newspapers at some point...
    He can have round 2 vs Leanne if he gets recalled
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,701
    North Cornwall an impressive LibDem performance to rack up a 10k majority. And I didn’t think Labour would win South East Cornwall. The Duchy has no blue and my Mum has a Labour MP for the first time in 60 odd years.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    Good speech by Starmer and now he has to deliver or as is clear in these stats he may not get the 10 years he wants

    Have you seen the quality of water in rivers under a Starmer Government?
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    maxhmaxh Posts: 1,025

    There will be a first crisis and a first scandal and a first resignation and a first reckoning and then we will see what we have.

    100% agree. But a more promising start than the last week would have suggested, no? Specifically, more ambitious, less cautious in rhetoric.

    Of course he is right, though, that it is action not rhetoric that counts. Let's see what action happens in the next 100 days.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727

    Good speech by Starmer and now he has to deliver or as is clear in these stats he may not get the 10 years he wants

    Have you seen the quality of water in rivers under a Starmer Government?
    And it has rained every single day under his administration too. Time for change.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 5,017
    maxh said:

    Excellent speech I thought. First time I've been convinced by Starmer as PM material.

    Starmer strikes exactly the right tone. But the question will be how big is the gap between him and the labour party MP's. How many of the latter will be happy with this 'boring' approach?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    kle4 said:

    Sir Keir and Lady Starmer make for an attractive couple.

    So did the Sunaks come to think of it.

    Oi - that kind of commentary is Sunil's job. Honestly, labour get back to power and people start taking other peoples' jobs...
    Victoria is better looking than Akshata?

    There. I. Said. It.
    They are both beautiful.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    maxh said:

    There will be a first crisis and a first scandal and a first resignation and a first reckoning and then we will see what we have.

    100% agree. But a more promising start than the last week would have suggested, no? Specifically, more ambitious, less cautious in rhetoric.

    Of course he is right, though, that it is action not rhetoric that counts. Let's see what action happens in the next 100 days.
    Today is fluff and theatre. Its tomorrow that wants to try and break him
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Next, the second round of the French election.
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    Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 202
    edited July 5

    America take note.

    This is how you do a transfer of power from one party to another.

    No rancour, no violence.

    Our constitutional crises involve lettuces.

    ...which begs a question...

    how deep do labour dig into the covid contracts?

    Starmer is exceptionally well qualified to make that judgment....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Andy_JS said:

    59.9% turnout is a sobering statistic.

    It's been worse.
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    RattersRatters Posts: 952
    Listening to people discuss the election today who are more on the right, there is a risk they see the lower Labour vote share and split vote on the right as meaning they have an easy path back to government.

    They don't. Labour lost potential voters to Reform during the campaign - many of whom would have never voted Tory. People felt free to vote Green or other in larger numbers knowing a Labour majority was a certainty. The Tories lost votes to the Lib Dems in the south they need to win back.

    Bringing back together a winning coalition of the right won't be easy. It's doable, but requires someone to unite the different wings rather than throw their lot in with a Reform-esque platform. I suspect the Tories will learn the wrong lessons from the vote detail and do exactly that.

    As for Labour, I can only hope Starmer takes the opportunity of a large majority for significant reform straight away. He's over 60 himself so hopefully less inclined to wanting a 10-15 year term, but instead be effective early on.
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    LloydBanksLloydBanks Posts: 44
    Andy_JS said:

    59.9% turnout is a sobering statistic.

    Is this confirmed? Can't find a definite number anywhere.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    edited July 5
    Andy_JS said:

    59.9% turnout is a sobering statistic.

    So SKS is in power on the say so of 20% of the voting population? Hardly his fault, and the other parties got less ...
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Owen Jones’ take:

    “If I were you I’d reverse what I did to win this massive majority”

    If I were you, I’d focus now on a massive charm offensive to win back the left wing and minority voters you abused and insulted, believing we were irrelevant and had nowhere to go.

    There is no sign you’re going to do that.

    Please, don’t let me interrupt you!


    https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1809188682089279683

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    HYUFD said:

    Yes Labour vote rose most in their target seats but fell in many inner city seats which gave them their big majority with FPTP.

    Reform cost the Tories, especially in market towns, rural areas and ex industrial area cities they won in 2019

    As I keep saying, that depends entirely on who they would have voted for, otherwise. This needs some urgent research. My guess is that many of them hate the current lot of Conservatives just as much as the rest of us.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Andy_JS said:

    Next, the second round of the French election.

    And we need to win the football...
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    I’m definitely going to have a go at that journey through Lib Dem territory from West London to Devon, ideally with a couple of boats onwards to Cornwall. A nice itinerary through some of the South’s prettiest landscapes.

    There’s a decent drive down to the Sussex coast too.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 20,296
    Andy_JS said:

    59.9% turnout is a sobering statistic.

    Many people just don't care about politics. They're not irate/angry/disillusioned, they just don't give a shit.

    If you don't care, and don't vote, you don't get a say. That's their choice.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Andy_JS said:

    59.9% turnout is a sobering statistic.

    It was 59.4% in 2001.
  • Options
    Immigration control for Reform

    Palestine for the left

    Done
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,116

    Owen Jones’ take:

    “If I were you I’d reverse what I did to win this massive majority”

    If I were you, I’d focus now on a massive charm offensive to win back the left wing and minority voters you abused and insulted, believing we were irrelevant and had nowhere to go.

    There is no sign you’re going to do that.

    Please, don’t let me interrupt you!


    https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1809188682089279683

    Starmer won by being Not The Tories; essentially by being quiet. You can see why it's not to Owen's liking
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774

    America take note.

    This is how you do a transfer of power from one party to another.

    No rancour, no violence.

    Our constitutional crises involve lettuces.

    America and @Cleitophon take note.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    James McMurdock, believed to be ahead in South Basildon & East Thurrock.

    https://www.reformparty.uk/south-basildon-and-east-thurrock-constituency
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,727

    Immigration control for Reform

    Palestine for the left

    Done

    We already have the Israelis and Hamas fighting over Palestine. Giving it to Corbyn, McDonnell and Jones just isn't going to work unfortunately, as much as it would be lovely to get them a bit further away.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605

    Immigration control for Reform

    Palestine for the left

    Done

    I think both are easier said than done.
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    Interesting stats. The one that would be interesting is the swing required next time for Lab to lose its majority. Doesn't feel like it would be that high.
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,228

    North Cornwall an impressive LibDem performance to rack up a 10k majority. And I didn’t think Labour would win South East Cornwall. The Duchy has no blue and my Mum has a Labour MP for the first time in 60 odd years.

    That's the County of Cornwall, the Duchy is different and includes Dartmoor (largely blue - Cox and Stride) and the Oval cricket ground (lab) and a lot of other stuff
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    Immigration control for Reform

    Palestine for the left

    Done

    The lucky generalism possibly continues into his first year as PM. Immigration will come down of its own accord simply by maths. Palestine is looking encouraging with a ceasefire imminent.
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,228

    America take note.

    This is how you do a transfer of power from one party to another.

    No rancour, no violence.

    Our constitutional crises involve lettuces.

    Unfair, this is how everyone does it when there's a clear result. Have you forgotten 2010?
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    Assuming the Tories don't go back to the centre - which I hope they will - the country now have an even clearer sense of who to vote for, to stop the Tories.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited July 5

    Immigration control for Reform

    Palestine for the left

    Done

    There will be no immigration control as Starmer's own caste will bleat about and block it. And also Labour's own MPs and activists.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    America take note.

    This is how you do a transfer of power from one party to another.

    No rancour, no violence.

    Our constitutional crises involve lettuces.

    Unfair, this is how everyone does it when there's a clear result. Have you forgotten 2010?
    It was a clear result in the US in 2020
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,228
    I am drinking the first hot drink I have made with the new quooker tap in my new kitchen. A new beginning indeed.
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    Lol Rishi pushed the door into that chap's face
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,228
    TimS said:

    America take note.

    This is how you do a transfer of power from one party to another.

    No rancour, no violence.

    Our constitutional crises involve lettuces.

    Unfair, this is how everyone does it when there's a clear result. Have you forgotten 2010?
    It was a clear result in the US in 2020
    Fake news
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 5
    Nailed Reform - they are the Hi-De-Hi Party.

    Farage in Clacton, Tice in Boston / Skegness, Lowe (who he?) in Great Yarmouth. And the Leeanderthal Man.

    Set in Crimpton-on-Sea, Essex, in the late 1950s.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8dzBPlXSzQ

    The TOTP version, which I did not know existed. Warning - incoming (clothed) Keith Chegwin in a Green jumper. The things they did for money:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8dzBPlXSzQ
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    Immigration control for Reform

    Palestine for the left

    Done

    There will be no immigration control as Starmer's own caste will bleat about and block it. And also Labour's own MPs and activists.
    Utter nonsense. The majority of his MPs are now in his image and he's stood distinctly on no EU and so that means he can offer control.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,909
    My bets - with TSE levels of modesty:

    Reform vote percentage 14 -15.99% band (10 bf)
    Turnout 57.50 - 59.99% band (8.3 bf)
    Con seats 100-149 band (4.0 bf)
    Tewkesbury LD (20/1 Bet365)
    Honiton & Sidmouth LD (5/2 Bet365)
    Ashfield Reform (13/5 Bet365)
    A chunky bet on Con to lose over 200 seats (1.83 bf)

    All winners.

    Narrow 43/1 loser!:

    Labour vote percentage 34.00 - 35.99%

    Very good election for my bets. Would have been even better if it were not for Magic Grandpa.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Owen Jones’ take:

    “If I were you I’d reverse what I did to win this massive majority”

    If I were you, I’d focus now on a massive charm offensive to win back the left wing and minority voters you abused and insulted, believing we were irrelevant and had nowhere to go.

    There is no sign you’re going to do that.

    Please, don’t let me interrupt you!


    https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1809188682089279683

    You thought we were irrelevant, and you were right.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,324

    America take note.

    This is how you do a transfer of power from one party to another.

    No rancour, no violence.

    Our constitutional crises involve lettuces.

    Unfair, this is how everyone does it when there's a clear result. Have you forgotten 2010?
    2010 UK GE? When there were lots of shots of people in offices then Gordon left and Cameron took over, with no deaths or riots?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    edited July 5
    Edward Leigh, Father of the House by dint of being ahead of Corbyn in the 1983 parliamentary arrival queue.

    Other than Mason the BBC presenters on R4 seem unbelievably glum.

    Sarah Montague focusing on Ashworth, Streeting and Phillip's performances. I'm sad for her, she's very upset.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    America take note.

    This is how you do a transfer of power from one party to another.

    No rancour, no violence.

    Our constitutional crises involve lettuces.

    Unfair, this is how everyone does it when there's a clear result. Have you forgotten 2010?
    Which was done in days.
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    Guido Fawkes said Liz Truss would go on to smash SKS in the election.

    And one poster, Sean somebody, said she would surprise on the upside.
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    JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    I note the Inverness seat has gone to a recount tomorrow. Any PBer with a handle on this one?
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,228
    TimS said:

    I’m definitely going to have a go at that journey through Lib Dem territory from West London to Devon, ideally with a couple of boats onwards to Cornwall. A nice itinerary through some of the South’s prettiest landscapes.

    There’s a decent drive down to the Sussex coast too.

    I was wrong opt about the southerly approach, I thought you could nip up the Tamar and disembark on the right bank into north Cornwall, which actually does not come quite down to the river.
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,621
    Ratters said:

    Listening to people discuss the election today who are more on the right, there is a risk they see the lower Labour vote share and split vote on the right as meaning they have an easy path back to government.

    They don't. Labour lost potential voters to Reform during the campaign - many of whom would have never voted Tory. People felt free to vote Green or other in larger numbers knowing a Labour majority was a certainty. The Tories lost votes to the Lib Dems in the south they need to win back.

    Bringing back together a winning coalition of the right won't be easy. It's doable, but requires someone to unite the different wings rather than throw their lot in with a Reform-esque platform. I suspect the Tories will learn the wrong lessons from the vote detail and do exactly that.

    As for Labour, I can only hope Starmer takes the opportunity of a large majority for significant reform straight away. He's over 60 himself so hopefully less inclined to wanting a 10-15 year term, but instead be effective early on.

    They need a leader with a bit of charisma who would make a contrast with Starmer and a simple reason or two (a successor to "Get Brexit Done") for people to vote for them.

    And above all they need Starmer to cock up in some way that cuts through to the non-tribal share of the electorate (I'm guessing planning reform and changes to local government taxation or some Nut Zero overreach could conceivably do that but who knows?) and gets the missing voters back to the ballot box.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460
    Drutt said:

    Owen Jones’ take:

    “If I were you I’d reverse what I did to win this massive majority”

    If I were you, I’d focus now on a massive charm offensive to win back the left wing and minority voters you abused and insulted, believing we were irrelevant and had nowhere to go.

    There is no sign you’re going to do that.

    Please, don’t let me interrupt you!


    https://x.com/OwenJones84/status/1809188682089279683

    Starmer won by being Not The Tories; essentially by being quiet. You can see why it's not to Owen's liking
    If he just kept quiet himself Starmer might do some very left wing things .
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    LloydBanksLloydBanks Posts: 44
    Stocky said:

    My bets - with TSE levels of modesty:

    Reform vote percentage 14 -15.99% band (10 bf)
    Turnout 57.50 - 59.99% band (8.3 bf)
    Con seats 100-149 band (4.0 bf)
    Tewkesbury LD (20/1 Bet365)
    Honiton & Sidmouth LD (5/2 Bet365)
    Ashfield Reform (13/5 Bet365)
    A chunky bet on Con to lose over 200 seats (1.83 bf)

    All winners.

    Narrow 43/1 loser!:

    Labour vote percentage 34.00 - 35.99%

    Very good election for my bets. Would have been even better if it were not for Magic Grandpa.

    Could the last two declarations not spoil that turnout bet?
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553
    JACK_W said:

    I note the Inverness seat has gone to a recount tomorrow. Any PBer with a handle on this one?

    A missing votes issue from the quick glance I've seen - the number of pieces of paper is fewer than the number of people who voted..
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Edward Leigh, Father of the House by dint of being ahead of Corbyn in the 1983 parliamentary arrival queue.

    Other than Mason the BBC presenters on R4 seem unbelievably glum.

    I was kind of hoping Corbyn might get that, for the laughs. Genuine well done to him though for proving he did have a personal vote.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,909
    edited July 5
    I feel for Sunak. Decent high calibre chap, chewed up by party politics. He didn't have much of a chance but he wasn't PM material. Too nice, much too timid and meek. A back-room geek sort not a leader.

    The Cons must come together and select a strong leader; May, Johnson and Sunak were not that.
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    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 627

    Immigration control for Reform

    Palestine for the left

    Done

    There will be no immigration control as Starmer's own caste will bleat about and block it. And also Labour's own MPs and activists.
    Utter nonsense. The majority of his MPs are now in his image and he's stood distinctly on no EU and so that means he can offer control.
    Can but won't.
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    Nunu5 said:

    Immigration control for Reform

    Palestine for the left

    Done

    There will be no immigration control as Starmer's own caste will bleat about and block it. And also Labour's own MPs and activists.
    Utter nonsense. The majority of his MPs are now in his image and he's stood distinctly on no EU and so that means he can offer control.
    Can but won't.
    Well let's see. You don't know.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763

    Guido Fawkes said Liz Truss would go on to smash SKS in the election.

    And one poster, Sean somebody, said she would surprise on the upside.

    Well she surprised me on the upside by losing her seat (and her mind).
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,152
    I have been looking at the wikipedia article for the ERG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group#Subscribers

    Without going through every seat, I think there are only about 10 of their previous subscribers left. Equally a lot of the One Nation Caucus have also lost their seats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation_Conservatives_(caucus)

    What this means IMHO, is that the talk of a Tory civil war is overblown. The remaining MPs are likely to be less ideological and will mainly be looking for a safe pair of hands. I would put my money on Barclay.

    It also wouldn't surprise me if we get 1-2 defections to Reform (perhaps Suella)
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    First time I've ever heard Starmer make what I'd class as a great speech. Exactly the right tone, I'd say.
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,762
    If Starmer succeeds, then he will win comfortably in 2029.

    However, there is an awful lot on his in tray and labours traditional solutions will make things worse.

    Without being hyperbolic, Labours future rests principally on Rachel Reeves shoulders and Starmers willingness to let her do things that will have the left of the party and the Libdems, and even some "one nation" conservatives up in arms.

    His large majority with losses of inner city seats and gains of places like Hitchin will help.

    However, if Starmer bottles it like Blair did with Frank Field and neuters or removes her, then Farage will be hovering like a vulture in 2029.
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,211
    TimS said:

    Immigration control for Reform

    Palestine for the left

    Done

    The lucky generalism possibly continues into his first year as PM. Immigration will come down of its own accord simply by maths. Palestine is looking encouraging with a ceasefire imminent.
    Total immigration, yes. But small boat immigration will only fall if asylum claims are rapidly processed and those whose claim fails are promptly deported. And that will take money.
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    Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 627

    Andy_JS said:

    59.9% turnout is a sobering statistic.

    It was 59.4% in 2001.
    And that was also bad
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 5

    Edward Leigh, Father of the House by dint of being ahead of Corbyn in the 1983 parliamentary arrival queue.

    Other than Mason the BBC presenters on R4 seem unbelievably glum.

    Sarah Montague focusing on Ashworth, Streeting and Phillip's performances. I'm sad for her, she's very upset.

    That's like Clarke vs Skinner back in the day.

    I thought Jess Phillips won?
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    If Starmer succeeds, then he will win comfortably in 2029.

    However, there is an awful lot on his in tray and labours traditional solutions will make things worse.

    Without being hyperbolic, Labours future rests principally on Rachel Reeves shoulders and Starmers willingness to let her do things that will have the left of the party and the Libdems, and even some "one nation" conservatives up in arms.

    His large majority with losses of inner city seats and gains of places like Hitchin will help.

    However, if Starmer bottles it like Blair did with Frank Field and neuters or removes her, then Farage will be hovering like a vulture in 2029.

    Weren't you the one predicting a hung parliament?
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,909

    Stocky said:

    My bets - with TSE levels of modesty:

    Reform vote percentage 14 -15.99% band (10 bf)
    Turnout 57.50 - 59.99% band (8.3 bf)
    Con seats 100-149 band (4.0 bf)
    Tewkesbury LD (20/1 Bet365)
    Honiton & Sidmouth LD (5/2 Bet365)
    Ashfield Reform (13/5 Bet365)
    A chunky bet on Con to lose over 200 seats (1.83 bf)

    All winners.

    Narrow 43/1 loser!:

    Labour vote percentage 34.00 - 35.99%

    Very good election for my bets. Would have been even better if it were not for Magic Grandpa.

    Could the last two declarations not spoil that turnout bet?
    Possible yes but price for my selection is 1.05 now so I've claimed it!
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    If Starmer succeeds, then he will win comfortably in 2029.

    However, there is an awful lot on his in tray and labours traditional solutions will make things worse.

    Without being hyperbolic, Labours future rests principally on Rachel Reeves shoulders and Starmers willingness to let her do things that will have the left of the party and the Libdems, and even some "one nation" conservatives up in arms.

    His large majority with losses of inner city seats and gains of places like Hitchin will help.

    However, if Starmer bottles it like Blair did with Frank Field and neuters or removes her, then Farage will be hovering like a vulture in 2029.

    I'm not sure I agree about the Reeves point. I think the most responsibility sits on Streeting's shoulders. Fixing healthcare is the biggest raison d'etre for Labour. If they get waiting lists down and satisfaction with the NHS up they will maintain popularity.
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    I have been looking at the wikipedia article for the ERG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group#Subscribers

    Without going through every seat, I think there are only about 10 of their previous subscribers left. Equally a lot of the One Nation Caucus have also lost their seats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation_Conservatives_(caucus)

    What this means IMHO, is that the talk of a Tory civil war is overblown. The remaining MPs are likely to be less ideological and will mainly be looking for a safe pair of hands. I would put my money on Barclay.

    It also wouldn't surprise me if we get 1-2 defections to Reform (perhaps Suella)

    But can "safe pair of hands" beat SKS? I would consider voting for a party led by a pragmatist assuming Labour cock it up but that seems like wishful thinking unless they think he'll do a Boris?
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    I cannot see why Ed Davey cannot go for the 100 in 2029.
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    maxhmaxh Posts: 1,025
    darkage said:

    maxh said:

    Excellent speech I thought. First time I've been convinced by Starmer as PM material.

    Starmer strikes exactly the right tone. But the question will be how big is the gap between him and the labour party MP's. How many of the latter will be happy with this 'boring' approach?
    Whatever dark arts he used to silence momentum will probably work again on this.
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,762
    TimS said:

    If Starmer succeeds, then he will win comfortably in 2029.

    However, there is an awful lot on his in tray and labours traditional solutions will make things worse.

    Without being hyperbolic, Labours future rests principally on Rachel Reeves shoulders and Starmers willingness to let her do things that will have the left of the party and the Libdems, and even some "one nation" conservatives up in arms.

    His large majority with losses of inner city seats and gains of places like Hitchin will help.

    However, if Starmer bottles it like Blair did with Frank Field and neuters or removes her, then Farage will be hovering like a vulture in 2029.

    I'm not sure I agree about the Reeves point. I think the most responsibility sits on Streeting's shoulders. Fixing healthcare is the biggest raison d'etre for Labour. If they get waiting lists down and satisfaction with the NHS up they will maintain popularity.
    If Reeves dosen't get it right, Streeting will end up having to impose eyewatering cuts on NHS funding before too long.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    edited July 5

    Interesting stats. The one that would be interesting is the swing required next time for Lab to lose its majority. Doesn't feel like it would be that high.

    Eye balling the third diagram in the header, the benchmark would be seats less than 7000 majority would have to switch to lose overall majority . I'm not sure what 7000 is in swing terms but it's reasonably high. It depends massively on what happens with other parties, in particular Reform.

    The Conservatives are a lot more vulnerable the other way. They were lucky to avoid an even more cataclysmic result.
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