Also kudos to Professor John Curtice and co. The exit poll was superb. Just overstated Reform.
It got Labour spot on though probably not the seats it expected, overstated the Tories but I guess had them losing some seats they held, got Scots Tories badly off, messed up on Reform, majorly understated the LDs.
I think, underneath the stonking majority, Labour insiders will be slightly disquieted this morning.
Very poor % of the vote, on low turnout. Challenges from the Gaza Left and the Greens, and from Reform on the Right. Loss of Debbonaire and Ashworth from the front bench.
One hopes this does not encourage Keir’s natural timidity, because “doing nothing” is one sure way to lose in 2029.
How much social housing needs to be built to accommodate all those vulnerably housed or unhoused so far plus everyone arriving in the next 5 years?
I should be jubilant this morning, but I’m not. I feel strangely flat. The task Labour faces to repair and bring the country back together after 14 years of reckless right-wingery is immense. These bastards have wrecked the country at home and abroad.
They have divided us, they have injected poison and spite into the body politic; they became drunk on ideology and power and they have shamelessly filled their pockets from the public purse. I am glad to see the back of them but they have entrenched their damage, they have salted the earth with their isolationist exceptionalism. The damage is done and the repair work is going to take a long time to complete.
Also kudos to Professor John Curtice and co. The exit poll was superb. Just overstated Reform.
It got Labour spot on though probably not the seats it expected, overstated the Tories but I guess had them losing some seats they held, got Scots Tories badly off, messed up on Reform, majorly understated the LDs.
But to quote Basil Fawlty, otherwise ok...
I went to bed shortly after Sunderland, knowing that the exit poll had seriously exaggerated Reform and modestly underestimated the LDs.
The other thing I hope comes from this result is our politics is much more pluralistic.
I hope that the media now review their balance rules and that we get more input from the LDs, Reform, Greens, even the Gaza nutters.
There are a lot of voices and opinions out there at the moment, and we could do with those being explored rather than focussing on the “Big 2”. The voters deserve this with a combined Lab/Con combined vote share in the 50s%
How the heck did the Lib Dems get 70+ seats on that vote share? Must be some Reform knobbling of the Tories in some of those seats.
The Cons have a big problem. Chasing Reform will lose the reluctant loyalists in the centre, but it will look appealing when they start mentally adding their vote shares in lost seats. They need to win back some Lab and LD switchers and also some Reform switchers, but the only way to do that is not to go left or right but actually fins solutions for the people who have rightly given up on them. That won't be easy, so we're more likely to see a Reform chasing populist leader for now I guess.
The make up of the surviving Con MPs, given the leadership voting rules, is going to be critical here.
The big plus for Tories in 2028-9 is people won't be voting out the Tories. That will see many seats come back without doing anything.
What a crazy election result. Quite how the voters managed to give a landslide majority to Labour on barely one-third of the vote, I'm not quite sure - but they managed it! Great results for the Lib Dems and the Greens. The Greens and Reform must have a large number of second places now.
The next election looks like it is wide open, even with Labour on a landslide majority of 170.
So will the Tories have the good sense to avoid Badenoch and Braverman?
Based upon their recent choices I suspect they will find someone even worse than those two. The one thing you can count on the Tories to do is to draw the wrong conclusions from an election failure.
A host of SNP big names have become victims of a remarkable cull of Nationalist politicians across Scotland in the General Election. Swathes of Nat MPs have lost their seats already with the party on course to be reduced to a rump of just eight seats, according to pollsters.
While the likes of Stephen Flynn and Pete Wishart hung on, Joanna Cherry and Alyn Smith were among those to lose out in Edinburgh South West and Stirling and Strathallan respectively. John Nicolson's defeat in Alloa and Grangemouth has been greeted with joy on social media where he emerged as the Nat MP people most wanted to lose their seat.
After some sleep and before getting ready for work:
The LD`s seem to have done amazingly but glad they didn`t get any close to Cons. Cons 2nd and Reform <17.5 would have been my biggest money losers.
Won on Greens in Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Reform in Ashfield, Clacton and Boston, Lost on Yakoob and Galloway. Overall about 500 up I think.
Pulled an all-nighter and have just had 3 hours sleep.
What a great night with some fascinating results. The worst election for the Conservatives in their history.
The Liz Truss moment is pretty astonishing.
Great to see some of the other Nasty Party booted out by the electorate including Jacob Rees-Mogg, Therese Coffey, Penny Mordaunt, Johnny Mercer.
I’m quite pleased for Jeremy Hunt. He’s a decent person and gave the loveliest and most gracious speech. I hope he takes the helm of the tory party for a while.
How the heck did the Lib Dems get 70+ seats on that vote share? Must be some Reform knobbling of the Tories in some of those seats.
The Cons have a big problem. Chasing Reform will lose the reluctant loyalists in the centre, but it will look appealing when they start mentally adding their vote shares in lost seats. They need to win back some Lab and LD switchers and also some Reform switchers, but the only way to do that is not to go left or right but actually fins solutions for the people who have rightly given up on them. That won't be easy, so we're more likely to see a Reform chasing populist leader for now I guess.
The make up of the surviving Con MPs, given the leadership voting rules, is going to be critical here.
The big plus for Tories in 2028-9 is people won't be voting out the Tories. That will see many seats come back without doing anything.
On the other hand, we'll have children voting.
Often losing parties don’t get their seats back in the following elections. I cite 1983, 2001 and 2015. You just can’t count on it. Stripped of the authority and oxygen government affords you can go backwards before you recover.
He’s a decent and capable man but a really bad politician. Osborne was spot on overnight. He got dealt a really tough hand but he needed to draw a line between him, Boris’s lies and Truss’s incompetence. Instead he focused on trying to keep a disparate party together and ended up with a completely incoherent platform as a result.
I feel quite sorry for Sunak. He's clearly smart, honest by political standards, seems to work hard, and has some decent ideas. Unfortunately he has almost no political skills at all, and he's leading a party full of people who frankly are nutters. He had no chance of winning, not that any incumbent government has much chance with the electorate post pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine.
Very interesting percentages with only a few left to declare: Labour 34%, Tory 23.6%m Reform 14.3 % Lib Dem 12.2% Green 6.8%
The Labour vote is really low, certainly compared to the polling over the last month. But, as Maggie showed in the 1980s, if your opponent vote is split you can win very big.
Maggie always got over 40% with all her wins?
Yes, but her majorities were flattered by the split between the Alliance and Labour. The split between the Tories and Reform has made the Labour vote extremely efficient.
Labour's majority is flattered by the split between Tories and Reform.
And it got 33.9%. Soft as baby food.
Under our system the only thing that really matters is the seat majority, it will be 5 years now before anything can be done about it and 5 years is a long time in politics.
Labour lost a shed load of votes to the assorted Hamas sympathisers and Corbynistas and there is not much Labour can do if a section of the electorate think that Gaza is the most pressing problem facing the UK. Doesn't do that community any favours in my view but not having them on the Labour benches dodges a few bullets as far as I am concerned,
Morning. Does anyone have a link to full results in a tabular form? Pulpstar's spreadsheets don't seem to have it. I'm looking at sheet 3 and the results are not visible at all. Is there another source anyone knows of?
So will the Tories have the good sense to avoid Badenoch and Braverman?
Based upon their recent choices I suspect they will find someone even worse than those two. The one thing you can count on the Tories to do is to draw the wrong conclusions from an election failure.
Electing an uncharismatic Farage cosplay leader is not the way to regain the conservative heartlands. Farage will always out Farage you.
Very interesting percentages with only a few left to declare: Labour 34%, Tory 23.6%m Reform 14.3 % Lib Dem 12.2% Green 6.8%
The Labour vote is really low, certainly compared to the polling over the last month. But, as Maggie showed in the 1980s, if your opponent vote is split you can win very big.
Maggie always got over 40% with all her wins?
Yes, but her majorities were flattered by the split between the Alliance and Labour. The split between the Tories and Reform has made the Labour vote extremely efficient.
Labour's majority is flattered by the split between Tories and Reform.
And it got 33.9%. Soft as baby food.
Under our system the only thing that really matters is the seat majority, it will be 5 years now before anything can be done about it and 5 years is a long time in politics.
Indeed and Labour-LibDems played the system brilliantly.
The idea that the Conservatives will overturn this in a hurry is, I think, fanciful. This was a well drilled and smart operation by the Labour Party who had workers on the ground where they mattered. The tories have successively lost those and won’t be back in power, in my opinion, for at least a decade and probably more.
I think there's a decent chance Labour will increase their vote % at the next election.
They have a blank canvas on which they can now start painting the outline of their next voter coalition.
Key will be convincing people that it is worth voting. There needs to be some vision and passion, and wooden Starmer failed to inspire.
The low turnout needs a good autopsy by other party's too. It wasn't just Labour that failed to motivate.
I think the long, flat campaign was a deliberate strategy to depress turnout, if NF hadn't flown in to excite the late middle-aged male vote and Sunak hadn't made stupid errors then it could have been far closer.
Very interesting percentages with only a few left to declare: Labour 34%, Tory 23.6%m Reform 14.3 % Lib Dem 12.2% Green 6.8%
The Labour vote is really low, certainly compared to the polling over the last month. But, as Maggie showed in the 1980s, if your opponent vote is split you can win very big.
Maggie always got over 40% with all her wins?
Yes, but her majorities were flattered by the split between the Alliance and Labour. The split between the Tories and Reform has made the Labour vote extremely efficient.
Labour's majority is flattered by the split between Tories and Reform.
And it got 33.9%. Soft as baby food.
Under our system the only thing that really matters is the seat majority, it will be 5 years now before anything can be done about it and 5 years is a long time in politics.
If the Tories had won a 160 seat majority with 33.8%, would you be happy about it?
There are I think 8 every week for the top 2 Opposition Parties, divided 6 and 2.
Now that seats are ~130 Tory and ~72 Lib Dems, could that change?
The driver might be another opportunity to kick the Toeires whilst they are down.
No chance. The biggest threat to both the Cons and Labour are the smaller parties, and there will be an ungentlemanly agreement to sideline them as much as possible.
I see the lib dems are calling for a 'emergency' budget for health and care.
Sounds good, but that is effectively a huge call for more spending right away. The calls for tax rises will start.
Which is precisely what the IFS were saying. None of the big three parties were being honest. The big four taxes are ruled out, so expect things like council tax and duties to rise.
It must have been very close. They should lose that and East Antrim next time.
Given the vote shares in the Assembly elections should imply a fairly comfortable unionist win, I’m guessing that a lot of DUP voters must have switched to TUV, and a lot of SDLP votes to SF.
Yes.
For me 2 takeaways in NI:
1 - Persistence of Sinn Fein. 2 - Unionist shift, which I have not got my head around.
Areas of implications:
1 - Funding of NI. 2 - More than half of NI MPs not sitting in the Commons.
Which, frankly, is the position Nicola should have adopted when all bar 3 Scottish MPs were SNP. If they don’t turn up now we would barely notice.
I can see Sir Starmer being quite tough on 1.
"Yes, I insist that you raise at least *some* of your money; we are trying to reduce dependence on London."
(Thought, is maximise London dependency Sinn Fein strategy to drive conflict, as Gerry Adams allegedly allowed casualties in Belfast to drive conflict in his terrorist war?)
I can see him make a proposal on 2 such as a version of "Yes, you may 'affirm' and not swear loyalty to the Crown", as was done with the Bible oath as done in 187x (?), and try and put SF between a rock and a hard place.
1. Labour to slightly stem the polling tide and land a (GB) vote share of above 40%, UK above 39%
Why: quite simply how few votes they need to actually gain to get there. A significant proportion of the work from a GB 32.9% last time out can be done by deaths, new voters, Tory abstentionism and the like, only 3-4% net need actually come from gaining switchers from other parties, and the people to do that are there imho.
2. That said Labour will lose votes to the left and will fail in at least half a dozen nominal defences:
Why: Hat tip to the poster who pointed me to the YouGov ethnic minority voter poll which had, iirc, Lab 43, Grn 26, Oth 10 for Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. That sounds tolerable for Labour, but still gives scope the quarter of those voters who live in the 23 constituencies where they account for 30%+ of the population and where the highest profile others are standing to account for a lot of that "Other" vote, and even then selectively. I think locally to me, Dewsbury & Batley will be amongst these and I think the winners will be low profile names - I don't necessarily think Galloway and Corbyn will figure, though Reform might.
3. Tory vote share will be under 25% (UK)
Why: They are too far below 25% in polling. This reverses an earlier prediction of mine saying they would be above it, though I retain my broad brush, Labour to win by 8-16%, which today's predictions just about allow.
4. We will be close to a situation where the identity of HM Opposition could be unclear for some time and may rely on alliance making, whether that is LD/APNI/Green or Con/DUP or even that Reform getting a look in down the line. There may be parliamentary shenanigans, and we may have different blocs providing LOTO during the course of the next parliament. It could be messy.
Why: Simply because I'm in this territory with predictions 1-3.
Will reply to this and review.
1. Is a clear miss, and the UK vote share looks to be comfortably under 34% with what is left, that despite the demographic ramp. It is very possible that Labour have net lost voters when you narrow to the 2019/24 common electorate.
The challenge set out by BJO and Casino Royale is a real one on these numbers, but Labour have 4+ years to build now - if we are to focus on vote share, recall that the Conservatives increased their vote share in each of 2015, 2017 and 2019, so the scope to do that is there, even if different patterns bounce around the majority numbers.
2. Called it, I'm afraid and, in fact, the way the Independents behave and the evolution of the Middle East could be worth 2-3% to Labour straight off next time out. (And there will be a bucket of first time incumbency bonus with 200 new MPs - iirc, it is said FTIB is worth about 4% in each constituency where it applies)
3. I'll take under 25% as a Win, Cons looking at a little under 24% UK wide.
4. Missed, but because 1 was missed - I don't think I was too far off in terms of how 1-3 would have fed into 4.
How the heck did the Lib Dems get 70+ seats on that vote share? Must be some Reform knobbling of the Tories in some of those seats.
The Cons have a big problem. Chasing Reform will lose the reluctant loyalists in the centre, but it will look appealing when they start mentally adding their vote shares in lost seats. They need to win back some Lab and LD switchers and also some Reform switchers, but the only way to do that is not to go left or right but actually fins solutions for the people who have rightly given up on them. That won't be easy, so we're more likely to see a Reform chasing populist leader for now I guess.
The make up of the surviving Con MPs, given the leadership voting rules, is going to be critical here.
The big plus for Tories in 2028-9 is people won't be voting out the Tories. That will see many seats come back without doing anything.
On the other hand, we'll have children voting.
This is precisely the kind of post that tells me you’re out of power for a generation.
You really need to ditch the nastiness and sort yourselves out. Do NOT presume the electorate are just going to come rushing back into your arms unless you do.
Got to imagine this will cause a lot of people to demand change. Labour won’t deliver it, but still…
Nobody is going to care about that. People will care about their local MP being elected with less than one-third of the vote. The winner in South West Norfolk won with only 26.5% - nearly 3/4 of the voters voted for someone else. In Fylde the winner won with only 33.2% of the vote - just over two-thirds voted for someone else. In Exmouth and Exeter East the winner received only 28.7% of the vote.
There are loads of those results. I think that's much more real to most voters than abstract arguments about the total number of MPs across the country.
The puzzle before the Tories is how to win in places like Chichester, Horsham and Guildford. The answer is not Braverman or Badenoch.
Remember how Cameron won.
The Tories have been screwed by Brexit just like Labour was in 2019. They face two distinct pools of voters and it's hard for them to attract one without repelling the other. Oh well, never mind.
Got to imagine this will cause a lot of people to demand change. Labour won’t deliver it, but still…
Nobody is going to care about that. People will care about their local MP being elected with less than one-third of the vote. The winner in South West Norfolk won with only 26.5% - nearly 3/4 of the voters voted for someone else. In Fylde the winner won with only 33.2% of the vote - just over two-thirds voted for someone else. In Exmouth and Exeter East the winner received only 28.7% of the vote.
There are loads of those results. I think that's much more real to most voters than abstract arguments about the total number of MPs across the country.
I look forward to the voting reform posts that no doubt lie in PB’s future.
Morning. What a sensation. But the polls were very badly off, weren't they? Do we think it was massive tactical unwind in the face of a massive projected seat lead? (Easier to vote Green/Islamic bloc when other voters are binning the Tories regardless?)
Sir John Curtice - This was an election that the Conservatives lost, rather than, with the exception of Scotland one which Labour won. Being in government is difficult and that was a problem for the SNP as well as the Conservatives.
As usual SJC wins. Why isn't he in the Lords? Or is it that being able to add and subtract makes him one of those scary tech types?
I think, underneath the stonking majority, Labour insiders will be slightly disquieted this morning.
Very poor % of the vote, on low turnout. Challenges from the Gaza Left and the Greens, and from Reform on the Right. Loss of Debbonaire and Ashworth from the front bench.
One hopes this does not encourage Keir’s natural timidity, because “doing nothing” is one sure way to lose in 2029.
How much social housing needs to be built to accommodate all those vulnerably housed or unhoused so far plus everyone arriving in the next 5 years?
And even if the money and land can be found, and the legal and bureaucratic knots untied, there is the small matter of sufficient materials and skilled labour to build them.
What a crazy election result. Quite how the voters managed to give a landslide majority to Labour on barely one-third of the vote, I'm not quite sure - but they managed it! Great results for the Lib Dems and the Greens. The Greens and Reform must have a large number of second places now.
The next election looks like it is wide open, even with Labour on a landslide majority of 170.
In many ways it looks more like 2005 than 1997.
Though I don't think that the Cons have a Cameron in the wings.
Good morning everybody. I'm immensely grateful to everyone who helps to run and manage this site, and to everyone who comments in any way. As you may recall, I never bet myself but I value this site highly for the information it provides. It's wonderful having this place to come to for up-to-date information whenever anything is happening and I really appreciate it.
My betting accounts all looking healthy this morning, for which many thanks to the smart punters on here.
Even better than winning money is looking at the state of the SNP today. ‘You’ll have had your de facto referendum, then.'
I wish Starmer well. He has a huge task to try and repair 14 years of damage.
The challenge for the press will be to provide the same coverage to the Greens and PC that they give to the RefUKers. I doubt they will succeed
Starmer has proven mainstream parties win from the centre. Yes he has lost 10% of his vote to the right flank and 10% to his left. But in FPTP it is enough.
I fear the Tories will focus on winning back the third of Reform voters they feel belong to them.
The Conservatives wholly disingenuous campaign painting Labour as the incumbent only served to lose Labour voters to the extremes without any net benefit to themselves.
I genuinely hope Starmer succeeds. In order to do so, one of his first tasks is to look at reining in the lying right wing, pro Farage, pro Brexit client media.
He’s a decent and capable man but a really bad politician. Osborne was spot on overnight. He got dealt a really tough hand but he needed to draw a line between him, Boris’s lies and Truss’s incompetence. Instead he focused on trying to keep a disparate party together and ended up with a completely incoherent platform as a result.
I feel quite sorry for Sunak. He's clearly smart, honest by political standards, seems to work hard, and has some decent ideas. Unfortunately he has almost no political skills at all, and he's leading a party full of people who frankly are nutters. He had no chance of winning, not that any incumbent government has much chance with the electorate post pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine.
The result could have been much worse for the Conservatives but not much better.
Well, I'm pleased. Popped in my drink place yesterday evening and spoke with a Reform supporter who was convinced Reform would get around 20 seats. I (somewhat loftily) demurred and said that 1 to 5 was more the range. As always I was absolutely right.
Morning. What a sensation. But the polls were very badly off, weren't they? Do we think it was massive tactical unwind in the face of a massive projected seat lead? (Easier to vote Green/Islamic bloc when other voters are binning the Tories regardless?)
They got the big stuff right. Tory seats, labour seats not far off. SNP implosion captured. Reform breakin captured. Forecasting the seat numbers for the smaller parties must have been damn nearnimpossible.
The Green seats were won with quite large shares of the vote. 43.2%, 56.6%, 41.7% and 55% The Reform seats were won with 46.2%, 42.8%, 38.4% and 35.3%, so quite a bit lower shares of the vote.
Christopher Chope hung on with 35.8% of the vote.
Amazed that Jeremy Hunt survived. Does he have a chance of being leader?
Equally got to feel sorry for the Lib Dem leader at the next election how do you top this campaign - when it's the stunts that won you 60+ seats..
Well he's got quite a lot more Short Money to do it with - I reckon the Lib Dems are up £1.2 million per year and the SNP down nearly £1 million (£955k) per year.
Good morning all. So my forecasts. I said Labour 380 to 410. Lib Dems 60. The Tories 130 to 150. I did not do bad! Reform I said 10%of the vote. A bit out there! 63 or 65%, I said would vote. Out there as well. I did not do bad though! At least we did not need to suffer from polling for a bit.
Results are much worse than I thought. No.late swing back to the Tories. EVEN Horsham has gone LD. Wow!
On the subject of the pollsters. We can take well deserved break from them. Hopefully they improve their performance next time.
Morning. What a sensation. But the polls were very badly off, weren't they? Do we think it was massive tactical unwind in the face of a massive projected seat lead? (Easier to vote Green/Islamic bloc when other voters are binning the Tories regardless?)
Yes, I think that last week of "deny them a super-majority" was Sunaks only effective campaign move. That's not going to work next time.
Morning. What a sensation. But the polls were very badly off, weren't they? Do we think it was massive tactical unwind in the face of a massive projected seat lead? (Easier to vote Green/Islamic bloc when other voters are binning the Tories regardless?)
They got the big stuff right. Tory seats, labour seats not far off. SNP implosion captured. Reform breakin captured. Forecasting the seat numbers for the smaller parties must have been damn nearnimpossible.
I specifically mean the polls that phalanx-like put Labour in the high 3ps or low 40s.
It must have been very close. They should lose that and East Antrim next time.
Given the vote shares in the Assembly elections should imply a fairly comfortable unionist win, I’m guessing that a lot of DUP voters must have switched to TUV, and a lot of SDLP votes to SF.
Yes.
For me 2 takeaways in NI:
1 - Persistence of Sinn Fein. 2 - Unionist shift, which I have not got my head around.
Areas of implications:
1 - Funding of NI. 2 - More than half of NI MPs not sitting in the Commons.
I also noticed Brexit is still very much an issue there. Partial explanation of the unionist shifts in at least one case, IIRC - too sleepy to remember the details, but one conceding DUP MP did ascribe his loss to TUV to it (I think|).
Despite the fun, the overall balance between Unionist and Nationalist vote share (39.2% to 43.4%) is almost identical to 2019, and the Alliance vote share only rose slightly.
The Green seats were won with quite large shares of the vote. 43.2%, 56.6%, 41.7% and 55% The Reform seats were won with 46.2%, 42.8%, 38.4% and 35.3%, so quite a bit lower shares of the vote.
Christopher Chope hung on with 35.8% of the vote.
Amazed that Jeremy Hunt survived. Does he have a chance of being leader?
On the issue of tacking to the centre, the right, or the left, the issue is that there is a rottenness in all three.
The populist right and populist left identify genuine problems, but propose solutions that can never work, and which they must know can never work.
The centrists either deny that there are problems, or likewise, make promises that cannot be delivered (eg modest increases in tax will generate huge improvements in services).
For the Conservatives, it should not be about shifting right or centre, but just spending a year trying to work out what they are actually there for, and how they can try to achieve it.
Good morning everybody. I'm immensely grateful to everyone who helps to run and manage this site, and to everyone who comments in any way. As you may recall, I never bet myself but I value this site highly for the information it provides. It's wonderful having this place to come to for up-to-date information whenever anything is happening and I really appreciate it.
May all your bets be winners.
We have been waiting for a charity drive for OGH - can we please have a recommended charity so we can shovel some of the winnings to a good cause?
Morning. What a sensation. But the polls were very badly off, weren't they? Do we think it was massive tactical unwind in the face of a massive projected seat lead? (Easier to vote Green/Islamic bloc when other voters are binning the Tories regardless?)
Yes, I think that last week of "deny them a super-majority" was Sunaks only effective campaign move. That's not going to work next time.
It’s not a supermajority but it’s a prettybloodygoodmajority.
Comments
But to quote Basil Fawlty, otherwise ok...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001439
They have divided us, they have injected poison and spite into the body politic; they became drunk on ideology and power and they have shamelessly filled their pockets from the public purse. I am glad to see the back of them but they have entrenched their damage, they have salted the earth with their isolationist exceptionalism. The damage is done and the repair work is going to take a long time to complete.
Does feel like it was a vote 'against' a lot of things rather than for a lot of things. Starmer has a huge victory and a huge mandate.
A mandate for what though?
Will Sir K change the format of PMQ?
There are I think 8 every week for the top 2 Opposition Parties, divided 6 and 2.
Now that seats are ~130 Tory and ~72 Lib Dems, could that change?
The driver might be another opportunity to kick the Toeires whilst they are down.
I hope that the media now review their balance rules and that we get more input from the LDs, Reform, Greens, even the Gaza nutters.
There are a lot of voices and opinions out there at the moment, and we could do with those being explored rather than focussing on the “Big 2”. The voters deserve this with a combined Lab/Con combined vote share in the 50s%
The low turnout needs a good autopsy by other party's too. It wasn't just Labour that failed to motivate.
On the other hand, we'll have children voting.
Great results for the Lib Dems and the Greens.
The Greens and Reform must have a large number of second places now.
The next election looks like it is wide open, even with Labour on a landslide majority of 170.
The LD`s seem to have done amazingly but glad they didn`t get any close to Cons. Cons 2nd and Reform <17.5 would have been my biggest money losers.
Won on Greens in Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Reform in Ashfield, Clacton and Boston, Lost on Yakoob and Galloway. Overall about 500 up I think.
Thangham
Ashworth
Corbyn
IDS
Leics East
Perry Bar
I expect them to keep it as is to be honest.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001137
Labour lost a shed load of votes to the assorted Hamas sympathisers and Corbynistas and there is not much Labour can do if a section of the electorate think that Gaza is the most pressing problem facing the UK. Doesn't do that community any favours in my view but not having them on the Labour benches dodges a few bullets as far as I am concerned,
& then feed that into your data analysis tool of choice.
Sounds good, but that is effectively a huge call for more spending right away. The calls for tax rises will start.
The idea that the Conservatives will overturn this in a hurry is, I think, fanciful. This was a well drilled and smart operation by the Labour Party who had workers on the ground where they mattered. The tories have successively lost those and won’t be back in power, in my opinion, for at least a decade and probably more.
My betting accounts all looking healthy this morning, for which many thanks to the smart punters on here.
Even better than winning money is looking at the state of the SNP today. ‘You’ll have had your de facto referendum, then.'
I wish Starmer well. He has a huge task to try and repair 14 years of damage.
The challenge for the press will be to provide the same coverage to the Greens and PC that they give to the RefUKers. I doubt they will succeed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001210
Remember how Cameron won.
You were cheering them on throughout.
"Yes, I insist that you raise at least *some* of your money; we are trying to reduce dependence on London."
(Thought, is maximise London dependency Sinn Fein strategy to drive conflict, as Gerry Adams allegedly allowed casualties in Belfast to drive conflict in his terrorist war?)
I can see him make a proposal on 2 such as a version of "Yes, you may 'affirm' and not swear loyalty to the Crown", as was done with the Bible oath as done in 187x (?), and try and put SF between a rock and a hard place.
The challenge set out by BJO and Casino Royale is a real one on these numbers, but Labour have 4+ years to build now - if we are to focus on vote share, recall that the Conservatives increased their vote share in each of 2015, 2017 and 2019, so the scope to do that is there, even if different patterns bounce around the majority numbers.
2. Called it, I'm afraid and, in fact, the way the Independents behave and the evolution of the Middle East could be worth 2-3% to Labour straight off next time out. (And there will be a bucket of first time incumbency bonus with 200 new MPs - iirc, it is said FTIB is worth about 4% in each constituency where it applies)
3. I'll take under 25% as a Win, Cons looking at a little under 24% UK wide.
4. Missed, but because 1 was missed - I don't think I was too far off in terms of how 1-3 would have fed into 4.
You really need to ditch the nastiness and sort yourselves out. Do NOT presume the electorate are just going to come rushing back into your arms unless you do.
There are loads of those results. I think that's much more real to most voters than abstract arguments about the total number of MPs across the country.
Following the YouGov MRP led to profit again. Feels like the MRPs did better than the exit poll
Jeez _ I have been awake for 26 hours already.
Though I don't think that the Cons have a Cameron in the wings.
May all your bets be winners.
Was an early Labour hold.
I fear the Tories will focus on winning back the third of Reform voters they feel belong to them.
The Conservatives wholly disingenuous campaign painting Labour as the incumbent only served to lose Labour voters to the extremes without any net benefit to themselves.
I genuinely hope Starmer succeeds. In order to do so, one of his first tasks is to look at reining in the lying right wing, pro Farage, pro Brexit client media.
Lovely jubbly...
Starting with Gaza.
I mean, he's a fucking Human rights lawyer.
Lead the charge against Netanyahu and smear the fuck out of Farage.
Go for it, Keir. More than anyone, you know what you're doing....
swing from Con to Lab only 3.1%, one of the lowest in the country.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001310
The Reform seats were won with 46.2%, 42.8%, 38.4% and 35.3%, so quite a bit lower shares of the vote.
Christopher Chope hung on with 35.8% of the vote.
Amazed that Jeremy Hunt survived. Does he have a chance of being leader?
We’re a moderate nation and the only dog-whistling we follow is with our canine friends.
Anyone know why?
He gave a really lovely, honest, speech
Worse what many people are going to receive is likely to be something they don't want.
Starmer and Reeves have my sympathy.
In fact its an impossible job.
The populist right and populist left identify genuine problems, but propose solutions that can never work, and which they must know can never work.
The centrists either deny that there are problems, or likewise, make promises that cannot be delivered (eg modest increases in tax will generate huge improvements in services).
For the Conservatives, it should not be about shifting right or centre, but just spending a year trying to work out what they are actually there for, and how they can try to achieve it.
Also a donation button for the site, please.