On UNS Sir John Curtice is forecasting a result closer to what Michael Howard got in 2005 for Sunak than what Major got in 1997 and Hague got in 2001. On an MRP forecast though Curtice says the Tory result could be even worse than 1997
'Sir John Curtice projects 370 Labour seats, 191 Tory seats and 34 LD and 34 SNP seats, 2 Plaid, 1 Green and 0 Reform on universal national swing based on analysis of 8 recent polls.
However on an MRP change the results look significantly different, with Curtice saying Labour could then get 447 seats, the Tories 98, the LDs 53, the SNP 21, Reform 8 and the Greens and Plaid 2 each' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl7y2xj728do
So he doesnt know.
Here's my regular reminder that if one methodology gives one result and another gives another, the truth is not in splitting the difference, the truth is that one of them is wrong. We now have to decide whether polls+UNS is right, or MRP is right.
Or neither, because something non-uniform is happening, but not based on the assumptions in the MRP model.
Curtice, good as he is doesn't know, and he thought Labour was going to win in Rochdale ! But at 10 PM he will know.
Even more tantalising than that he will start to know during the day, and will probably have a good idea several hours earlier.
Will he bet on it though
God what a sickener that would be if Sir John Curtice turns out to have millions offshore from insider betting off his exit poll info over the years.
It'd be like discovering your dad had another family in the next door town.
Looking at the state of him, he’d be well advised to go cash in some time very soon.
Something about him I do like. I do find him trustworthy.
Correction. I do not find him trustworthy. He has a high opinion of himself. Quite sickening.
"So it’s hardly surprising that Nigel Farage isn’t keen on Marine Le Pen and the RN. Rather than ‘far right’, he is really a malcontent of boomer liberalism, railing against the social outcomes of the post-1980s consensus while wishing to maintain the economic conditions that create them. He is ideologically hostile to the populist, nationalist and common good economics practised and advocated elsewhere in Europe by leaders and thinkers whom his followers and opponents would consider his natural allies. His natural ally is fellow boomer-whisperer Donald Trump.
When the liberal left casts Farage as a 20-a-day Oswald Mosley, it commits a cardinal sin of politics: misunderstanding the enemy. Farage flirts now and then with incendiary rhetoric but if he is the apogee of national populism in Britain, we will be very lucky indeed. I suspect, however, that he won’t be. A few years back, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat observed: ‘If you dislike the religious right, wait till you meet the post-religious right.’ I’d suggest to progressives that the same applies to Reform’s leader: if you dislike Farage, will till you see who comes after him."
Yes there's a lot worse than Farage in Populist Right world.
You do realise that Rishi isn't that short don't you? And that a fair section of the population is by definition short? I'm not sure all these heightist jokes land quite as you want.
You're saying I shouldn't be punching down?
I don't really care about punching down. Just why the obsession with Rishi's height?
If the average height for a man is 5"10, then being 5"7 is no more unusual than being 6"1. He's not even that short anyway!
He looks shorter than he is, because he is so slender and wears skinny trousers.
Yes it's not the height that's unusual it's the all round tininess.
Though the height too - 5'7''? Really? I think there's some stretching of the truth going on there.
I have, I should point out, nothing against the tragically undersized. But he is remarkably small.
He doesn't look that small next to Starmer - so if he's rounding up, then 5'7" might not be far off.
It's the smallest Labour lead form Redfield & Wilton since the 18pp lead on 10th March (42 - 24).
But all agree that Con has had a far worse campaign than Lab.
Implication is that none of it - not even D-Day - will make any difference at all when people actually cast their votes.
Most campaigns make no difference. So probably the unwind we will see will unwind the Farage boost and the Tory slump and take their ratings back to where they were two weeks back.
"So it’s hardly surprising that Nigel Farage isn’t keen on Marine Le Pen and the RN. Rather than ‘far right’, he is really a malcontent of boomer liberalism, railing against the social outcomes of the post-1980s consensus while wishing to maintain the economic conditions that create them. He is ideologically hostile to the populist, nationalist and common good economics practised and advocated elsewhere in Europe by leaders and thinkers whom his followers and opponents would consider his natural allies. His natural ally is fellow boomer-whisperer Donald Trump.
When the liberal left casts Farage as a 20-a-day Oswald Mosley, it commits a cardinal sin of politics: misunderstanding the enemy. Farage flirts now and then with incendiary rhetoric but if he is the apogee of national populism in Britain, we will be very lucky indeed. I suspect, however, that he won’t be. A few years back, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat observed: ‘If you dislike the religious right, wait till you meet the post-religious right.’ I’d suggest to progressives that the same applies to Reform’s leader: if you dislike Farage, will till you see who comes after him."
I somewhat agree with this. Farage is an out and out charlatan. Boris Johnson without the jokes but with a lot more focus. He's very manipulative. It's all about him.
Le Pen is ideological. She believes the stuff she peddles. She's the leader but it's the movement that's the thing.
BBC use him as a numbers man. But seems to me he is just as good as a political commentator - ie analysing why the numbers move as they do.
Made a very telling remark about the next Govt having to conduct a spending review by October which will flush out where the cuts are going to have to be made. Implication was why aren't journalists challenging politicians on this. Can't be kicked into long grass - decisions will have to be made imminently.
Did Curtice screw up the numbers on the 2015 exit poll. Can someone clarify this. Thanks.
It was a pretty decent exit poll IMO.
It slightly underestimated the Conservative seat number, though would have been within the MOE and right at the start of the show Curtice was clear he wasn't ruling out a Con majority.
It correctly identified the Lib-Dem evisceration and the SNP wave in Scotland both of which were pretty bold calls.
BBC use him as a numbers man. But seems to me he is just as good as a political commentator - ie analysing why the numbers move as they do.
Made a very telling remark about the next Govt having to conduct a spending review by October which will flush out where the cuts are going to have to be made. Implication was why aren't journalists challenging politicians on this. Can't be kicked into long grass - decisions will have to be made imminently.
Yes, Sir John was very bullish when speaking to Lady Harman. Have a feeling this may be his final election calculating the numbers and he'll be retiring to become a general political commentator soon?
He is 70, and does not particularly enjoy the spotlight. I think if he retires, he retires, this could indeed be his swan song.
"So it’s hardly surprising that Nigel Farage isn’t keen on Marine Le Pen and the RN. Rather than ‘far right’, he is really a malcontent of boomer liberalism, railing against the social outcomes of the post-1980s consensus while wishing to maintain the economic conditions that create them. He is ideologically hostile to the populist, nationalist and common good economics practised and advocated elsewhere in Europe by leaders and thinkers whom his followers and opponents would consider his natural allies. His natural ally is fellow boomer-whisperer Donald Trump.
When the liberal left casts Farage as a 20-a-day Oswald Mosley, it commits a cardinal sin of politics: misunderstanding the enemy. Farage flirts now and then with incendiary rhetoric but if he is the apogee of national populism in Britain, we will be very lucky indeed. I suspect, however, that he won’t be. A few years back, New York Times columnist Ross Douthat observed: ‘If you dislike the religious right, wait till you meet the post-religious right.’ I’d suggest to progressives that the same applies to Reform’s leader: if you dislike Farage, will till you see who comes after him."
I somewhat agree with this. Farage is an out and out charlatan. Boris Johnson without the jokes but with a lot more focus. He's very manipulative. It's all about him.
Le Pen is ideological. She believes the stuff she peddles. She's the leader but it's the movement that's the thing.
I completely agree with your comments about Farage. Hole in One!
But right now it isn’t and I want to chuck him in Portsmouth harbour. I hate ferries
Really? I love ferries. One of the wonderful thing about ferries is that unlike aircraft, you don't have to stay near the old c*nt sneezing. You can go elsewhere. I could stay and stand and stare at the sea for pretty much the whole crossing. On an aeroplane it feels like being picked up from one location and plonked down in another. It's not travel, it's teleportation. Whereas on a ferry you move through the landscape. And while it's wonderful to peer out your little window from a plane as you descend through the clouds, and see Kinder Scout below you and tick off the suburbs (Hyde, Bredbury, Stockport, Cheadle Heath, Cheadle Hulme, Heald Green, Moss Nook) as you descend into Manchester Airport; to look out from deck at the slow arrival of land in the distance as it gradually assumes shape, and then becomes the recognisable shape of Devon, and there, THERE is my homeland ,and then be slowly surrounded by Plymouth Harbour, is an order of magnitude more marvellous an arrival.
Current flap re: UK postal voting in the light of USA vote-by-mail:
> In USA prior to 2020 general election, lots of coverage in American media concerning problems with United States Postal Service (USPS) which is a quasi-government whatever-you-call-it. Problems both long-term AND exacerbated by Trump administration screw-ups (some accidental, others deliberate).
> In UK prior to 2024 general, sudden spike (if not frenzy) in media coverage of Royal Mail's Horizon scandal, along with other issues concerning deterioration (if PB's any indication) of basic postal service.
> In USA attacks by growing numbers of Republican politicos, pundits, activists on absentee and vote-by-mail as alleged conduits of electoral corruption (amplified by ramping & related disinformation) with effect of making many GOP voters reluctant to vote via the mail, and also making many Dems concerned whether Trump-inspired sabotage of USPS could disenfranchise them; in turn this led lost of Republicans to wait until Election Day to vote AND Democrats to either vote earlier via mail OR use ballot boxes and early in-person voting. My own guess is that Dems benefited more than Reps from this dynamic.
> In WA State where all elections are conducted via vote-by-mail, the Secretary of State and local county auditors have close & frequent contacts with USPS managers, in order to respond to problems that arise in mail ballots out to voters, and with voters mailing them back to election authorities. AND even better, to plan and prepare for massive numbers of individual postal ballots moving both directions through the system - ballots that need to be properly processed, indeed expedited, in order to enfranchise voters, guard against error AND tampering, and (lest we forget) move all that mail down the line so that BlancheLivermore & etc. can get it where it needs to go.
> In UK, there is relative absence (I think) of MAGA-GOP anti-postalism (though maybe NOT on PB) so that's not much of a factor. But appears to be growing angst about postal votes NOT getting counted because they're stuck on a truck somewhere on the M1.
On your second point, Horizon is a Post Office issue, FA to do with the Royal Mail.
But PO and RM were one and the same company for much of the Horizon era, and still are in the public mind.
On SS's final point, I don't think the M1 delays are an issue so much as the sorting offices in some urban areas.
In US major postal sorting centers can also be major bottlenecks for absentee and vote-by-mail ballots; this is exacerbated by fact that many 2nd-tier sorting centers on deliver mail every other day or suchlike. Including deliveries of outgoing & incoming ballots.
Here in WA State you can see this reflected in daily returned ballot statistics, where some counties - including some of the biggest - will have next to no returns one day, then thousands the next, then squat the day after that, then . . .
Yes, but in the UK, standard envelopes are all machine sorted and the office is configured to be clear of first class mail after every evening despatch. If there’s a problem in RM it’s with staffing shortages in delivery offices - but this affects delivery of PVs to punters and not their return to the council.
Not sure what differences are between UK vs US postal sorting offices. Except the one just south of Seattle serving much of western Washington is HUMONGOUS the size of a smallish Death Star.
As for delivery of postal ballots to voters, in WA State the lion's share are mailed out three weeks before primary & general elections; military & overseas ballots go even sooner. Voters who didn't receive a ballot (never arrived OR they weren't previously registered) can request one afterwards, but in final days before Election Day, you're best bet is to show up at the election office in person, to get your ballot and vote it then and there.
I think you’d be surprised at the amount of technology deployed in the UK. Americans often think they’re ahead in the technology race - and in Silicon Valley and the military, they undoubtedly are, but on the deployment of technology in ordinary life applications, Europe is well ahead of the US such that visitors to the US are often surprised how backward many things seem there.
BBC use him as a numbers man. But seems to me he is just as good as a political commentator - ie analysing why the numbers move as they do.
Made a very telling remark about the next Govt having to conduct a spending review by October which will flush out where the cuts are going to have to be made. Implication was why aren't journalists challenging politicians on this. Can't be kicked into long grass - decisions will have to be made imminently.
Yes, Sir John was very bullish when speaking to Lady Harman. Have a feeling this may be his final election calculating the numbers and he'll be retiring to become a general political commentator soon?
He is 70, and does not particularly enjoy the spotlight. I think if he retires, he retires, this could indeed be his swan song.
I suspect his prediction/warning, that by being so vague about the challenges ahead Labour are just storing up trouble for the future, will turn out to be pretty accurate as well.
Did Sadiq Khan really announce today, 48 hours before the Parliementary elections, that he was going to start charging (in money) electric cars to come into London?
BBC use him as a numbers man. But seems to me he is just as good as a political commentator - ie analysing why the numbers move as they do.
Made a very telling remark about the next Govt having to conduct a spending review by October which will flush out where the cuts are going to have to be made. Implication was why aren't journalists challenging politicians on this. Can't be kicked into long grass - decisions will have to be made imminently.
Yes, Sir John was very bullish when speaking to Lady Harman. Have a feeling this may be his final election calculating the numbers and he'll be retiring to become a general political commentator soon?
He is 70, and does not particularly enjoy the spotlight. I think if he retires, he retires, this could indeed be his swan song.
Little bit of a Tory uptick, but nothing to set the world on fire.
Unless the Reform vote implodes in the privacy of the polling booth, the Conservatives will be well short of 30% of the popular vote. Easily their worst ever result at a GE.
Probably a swingback in seats where the Reform minded tories know Reform don't have a hope.
Having had to explain to a neighbour that, despite the postal ballot paper having a local place-name on it, this wasn't an election for the local council ... and then that if she wanted Rishi Sunak to remain prime minister it was the Conservative candidate she should vote for ... I have my doubts as to the sophistication of the electorate.
BBC use him as a numbers man. But seems to me he is just as good as a political commentator - ie analysing why the numbers move as they do.
Made a very telling remark about the next Govt having to conduct a spending review by October which will flush out where the cuts are going to have to be made. Implication was why aren't journalists challenging politicians on this. Can't be kicked into long grass - decisions will have to be made imminently.
Yes, Sir John was very bullish when speaking to Lady Harman. Have a feeling this may be his final election calculating the numbers and he'll be retiring to become a general political commentator soon?
He is 70, and does not particularly enjoy the spotlight. I think if he retires, he retires, this could indeed be his swan song.
He doesn't need to show up for television, he must have colleagues.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
The importance of the Opposition in the system of parliamentary government has long received practical recognition in the procedure of Parliament. In 1937 statutory recognition was accorded through the grant of a salary to the Leader of the Opposition. The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually obviated any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’: it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the government, to assume office [and in a footnote: The Speaker’s decision on the identity of the Leader of the Opposition is final (Ministerial and other Salaries Act 1975 (c27) s2 (2)).
- Erskine May, Parliamentary Practice, 23rd edition, pp247-48
If we ended up with the above results the Greens and LDs should state to the Speaker that they're prepared to form a coalition minority administration should the Government resign. That would give him a headache.
More likely a conjoining/coalition/arrangement (?) with sister party APNI, especially if the latter gets a decent haul
Little bit of a Tory uptick, but nothing to set the world on fire.
Unless the Reform vote implodes in the privacy of the polling booth, the Conservatives will be well short of 30% of the popular vote. Easily their worst ever result at a GE.
Probably a swingback in seats where the Reform minded tories know Reform don't have a hope.
Having had to explain to a neighbour that, despite the postal ballot paper having a local place-name on it, this wasn't an election for the local council ... and then that if she wanted Rishi Sunak to remain prime minister it was the Conservative candidate she should vote for ... I have my doubts as to the sophistication of the electorate.
That’s merely outing yourself as someone who has never been involved in front line politics.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
The importance of the Opposition in the system of parliamentary government has long received practical recognition in the procedure of Parliament. In 1937 statutory recognition was accorded through the grant of a salary to the Leader of the Opposition. The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually obviated any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’: it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the government, to assume office [and in a footnote: The Speaker’s decision on the identity of the Leader of the Opposition is final (Ministerial and other Salaries Act 1975 (c27) s2 (2)).
- Erskine May, Parliamentary Practice, 23rd edition, pp247-48
If we ended up with the above results the Greens and LDs should state to the Speaker that they're prepared to form a coalition minority administration should the Government resign. That would give him a headache.
More likely a conjoining/coalition/arrangement (?) with sister party APNI, especially if the latter gets a decent haul
BBC use him as a numbers man. But seems to me he is just as good as a political commentator - ie analysing why the numbers move as they do.
Made a very telling remark about the next Govt having to conduct a spending review by October which will flush out where the cuts are going to have to be made. Implication was why aren't journalists challenging politicians on this. Can't be kicked into long grass - decisions will have to be made imminently.
I think the cliff edge for the spending review is actually December - it played a part in some of our discussions earlier in the year around the likely election date.
The Institute for Government are recommending an expedited spending review covering only a single year, with a comprehensive review scheduled for next year to cover the remainder of the parliament:
Via @YouGov, 27 Jun - 1 Jul. Changes w/ 30 May - 3 Jun.
Is that a stand alone poll or a sub sample?
Stand alone Welsh poll
I went into Barry for work today. Quite a few Reform placards in Barry and in the fields around the airport. Labour in the towns and villages and the usual sea of blue placarded field down to one or two in just a handful.
But right now it isn’t and I want to chuck him in Portsmouth harbour. I hate ferries
Really? I love ferries. One of the wonderful thing about ferries is that unlike aircraft, you don't have to stay near the old c*nt sneezing. You can go elsewhere. I could stay and stand and stare at the sea for pretty much the whole crossing. On an aeroplane it feels like being picked up from one location and plonked down in another. It's not travel, it's teleportation. Whereas on a ferry you move through the landscape. And while it's wonderful to peer out your little window from a plane as you descend through the clouds, and see Kinder Scout below you and tick off the suburbs (Hyde, Bredbury, Stockport, Cheadle Heath, Cheadle Hulme, Heald Green, Moss Nook) as you descend into Manchester Airport; to look out from deck at the slow arrival of land in the distance as it gradually assumes shape, and then becomes the recognisable shape of Devon, and there, THERE is my homeland ,and then be slowly surrounded by Plymouth Harbour, is an order of magnitude more marvellous an arrival.
I like ferries too. Long crossings, preferably overnight with a cabin but not arriving too early in the morning. And with good facilities including restaurants and a nice deck area.
But hate the idea of a cruise. Very different thing.
The best ferry journey I’ve done was a Greek one from Piraeus to Naxos. Pleasant weather and not too busy. I have an overnighter coming up in December from Dakar to Ziguinchor, which should be fun if a little nervewracking as that crossing was the scene of one of the world’s worst ever ferry disasters.
Little bit of a Tory uptick, but nothing to set the world on fire.
Unless the Reform vote implodes in the privacy of the polling booth, the Conservatives will be well short of 30% of the popular vote. Easily their worst ever result at a GE.
Probably a swingback in seats where the Reform minded tories know Reform don't have a hope.
Having had to explain to a neighbour that, despite the postal ballot paper having a local place-name on it, this wasn't an election for the local council ... and then that if she wanted Rishi Sunak to remain prime minister it was the Conservative candidate she should vote for ... I have my doubts as to the sophistication of the electorate.
That’s merely outing yourself as someone who has never been involved in front line politics.
The other thing that gives me doubts is the frequency with which people jump to false conclusions on the basis of complete ignorance.
I committed one ballot paper/polling card balls up
The actor and the archaeologist live next door to each other. Both have similar looking doors, and no numbers. Which is really helpful
I had mail for every house on that street except, it turned out, for the actor, and I accidentally delivered the archaeologist's mail to the actor's house
I realised what I'd done as I reached the archaeologist's door, and dashed back to actor's door. Furious knocking yielded no reply, so I tried the same on the archaeologist with the same result
I knew it was no big deal really, they know each other and would obviously pass the mail on, but I was really angry with myself for messing up one of the few actually important things we have to do
I remember this happened on a Saturday, because the next morning on my walk to work I saw the actor on his way home with a pile of Sunday papers
I apologised profusely for delivering the wrong mail to him
He apologised to me for not answering the door, he was learning lines. He assured me that he'd immediately posted the mail to the archaeologist, and he thanked me for reminding him that he needed to register to vote
Did Sadiq Khan really announce today, 48 hours before the Parliementary elections, that he was going to start charging (in money) electric cars to come into London?
But right now it isn’t and I want to chuck him in Portsmouth harbour. I hate ferries
Really? I love ferries. One of the wonderful thing about ferries is that unlike aircraft, you don't have to stay near the old c*nt sneezing. You can go elsewhere. I could stay and stand and stare at the sea for pretty much the whole crossing. On an aeroplane it feels like being picked up from one location and plonked down in another. It's not travel, it's teleportation. Whereas on a ferry you move through the landscape. And while it's wonderful to peer out your little window from a plane as you descend through the clouds, and see Kinder Scout below you and tick off the suburbs (Hyde, Bredbury, Stockport, Cheadle Heath, Cheadle Hulme, Heald Green, Moss Nook) as you descend into Manchester Airport; to look out from deck at the slow arrival of land in the distance as it gradually assumes shape, and then becomes the recognisable shape of Devon, and there, THERE is my homeland ,and then be slowly surrounded by Plymouth Harbour, is an order of magnitude more marvellous an arrival.
That is why I love cruises. You are somewhere in the midst of the ocean when you suddenly see a blob on the horizon. As you slowly approach the definition increases and you begin to see the colours and the shapes of the destination. The world becomes real again.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
The importance of the Opposition in the system of parliamentary government has long received practical recognition in the procedure of Parliament. In 1937 statutory recognition was accorded through the grant of a salary to the Leader of the Opposition. The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually obviated any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’: it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the government, to assume office [and in a footnote: The Speaker’s decision on the identity of the Leader of the Opposition is final (Ministerial and other Salaries Act 1975 (c27) s2 (2)).
- Erskine May, Parliamentary Practice, 23rd edition, pp247-48
If we ended up with the above results the Greens and LDs should state to the Speaker that they're prepared to form a coalition minority administration should the Government resign. That would give him a headache.
I'm sure under those circumstances the Alliance would take the LD whip. They already do in the HofL and presumably don't in the HofC because there is no benefit in doing so. A result like that suddenly becomes a huge benefit to do so. Many members of the Alliance are also LD members.
ITV Wales poll saying that Tories will get -4.7% in Rhondda (that is minus 4.7%)
If only......
My favourite is the fact the pompously named party of Wales is fourth. How embarrassing for the nationalists.
The idea that they are not named for Wales would surprise Welsh Labour and the Welsh Conservative Party.
I don't think that was the claim - one is named the Party of Wales, the others simply add Welsh to their general party name, the for Wales as you put it. That might not be an important distinction, but it is a distinction.
It looks like every seat is counting overnight for the first time ever at a general election, (although it did happen with the Brexit referendum). Well done Iain Dale, whose campaign in 2010 prevented many councils from attempting to abandon overnight counts. If they'd succeeded then, they probably would have carried on with next day counts.
But right now it isn’t and I want to chuck him in Portsmouth harbour. I hate ferries
Really? I love ferries. One of the wonderful thing about ferries is that unlike aircraft, you don't have to stay near the old c*nt sneezing. You can go elsewhere. I could stay and stand and stare at the sea for pretty much the whole crossing. On an aeroplane it feels like being picked up from one location and plonked down in another. It's not travel, it's teleportation. Whereas on a ferry you move through the landscape. And while it's wonderful to peer out your little window from a plane as you descend through the clouds, and see Kinder Scout below you and tick off the suburbs (Hyde, Bredbury, Stockport, Cheadle Heath, Cheadle Hulme, Heald Green, Moss Nook) as you descend into Manchester Airport; to look out from deck at the slow arrival of land in the distance as it gradually assumes shape, and then becomes the recognisable shape of Devon, and there, THERE is my homeland ,and then be slowly surrounded by Plymouth Harbour, is an order of magnitude more marvellous an arrival.
I like ferries too. Long crossings, preferably overnight with a cabin but not arriving too early in the morning. And with good facilities including restaurants and a nice deck area.
But hate the idea of a cruise. Very different thing.
The best ferry journey I’ve done was a Greek one from Piraeus to Naxos. Pleasant weather and not too busy. I have an overnighter coming up in December from Dakar to Ziguinchor, which should be fun if a little nervewracking as that crossing was the scene of one of the world’s worst ever ferry disasters.
Picton Ferry between New Zealand's North and South Island is a highlight of any visit.
It looks like every seat is counting overnight for the first time ever at a general election, (although it did happen with the Brexit referendum). Well done Iain Dale, whose campaign prevented many councils from attempting to abandon overnight counts at the 2010 election.
Reminds me of, I think it was More In Common, last night posting a Wisdom of the Crowd poll, where the respondents had to guess what the final result would be, and it was very close to recent MiC VI polls!
Did Sadiq Khan really announce today, 48 hours before the Parliementary elections, that he was going to start charging (in money) electric cars to come into London?
Did Sadiq Khan really announce today, 48 hours before the Parliementary elections, that he was going to start charging (in money) electric cars to come into London?
ITV Wales poll saying that Tories will get -4.7% in Rhondda (that is minus 4.7%)
If only......
My favourite is the fact the pompously named party of Wales is fourth. How embarrassing for the nationalists.
The idea that they are not named for Wales would surprise Welsh Labour and the Welsh Conservative Party.
I don't think that was the claim - one is named the Party of Wales, the others simply add Welsh to their general party name, the for Wales as you put it. That might not be an important distinction, but it is a distinction.
A distinction of importance may not be that. A distinction but that it may be.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
The importance of the Opposition in the system of parliamentary government has long received practical recognition in the procedure of Parliament. In 1937 statutory recognition was accorded through the grant of a salary to the Leader of the Opposition. The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually obviated any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’: it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the government, to assume office [and in a footnote: The Speaker’s decision on the identity of the Leader of the Opposition is final (Ministerial and other Salaries Act 1975 (c27) s2 (2)).
- Erskine May, Parliamentary Practice, 23rd edition, pp247-48
If we ended up with the above results the Greens and LDs should state to the Speaker that they're prepared to form a coalition minority administration should the Government resign. That would give him a headache.
I'm sure under those circumstances the Alliance would take the LD whip. They already do in the HofL and presumably don't in the HofC because there is no benefit in doing so. A result like that suddenly becomes a huge benefit to do so. Many members of the Alliance are also LD members.
Yes indeed. My blindspot (and TBF to myself I'm not the only one) led me to overlook the Alliance. Apologies to Norn Iron posters on here.
One thing the article fails to make clear is whether eating dog is symptomatic of, or a risk factor for brain worm.
Depends what kind of worm. Could be a tapeworm larva or rather intermediate stage (bladderworm) which would come from ingested eggs from e.g. pig or human shit. Other poss are from undercooked meat (some nematodes). And so on and so forth. Depends how well cooked Rover was in the first place, therefore; though he doesn't look that undercooked. I would wonder about the salad garnish.
I do like the prediction of the last constituency being declared by around 6.30am. I really like the idea that normal people will wake up and every single race will be declared and final result known.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
The importance of the Opposition in the system of parliamentary government has long received practical recognition in the procedure of Parliament. In 1937 statutory recognition was accorded through the grant of a salary to the Leader of the Opposition. The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually obviated any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’: it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the government, to assume office [and in a footnote: The Speaker’s decision on the identity of the Leader of the Opposition is final (Ministerial and other Salaries Act 1975 (c27) s2 (2)).
- Erskine May, Parliamentary Practice, 23rd edition, pp247-48
If we ended up with the above results the Greens and LDs should state to the Speaker that they're prepared to form a coalition minority administration should the Government resign. That would give him a headache.
Do the Greens and LDs have much in common at the moment? Both are imo certainly closer to Labour than they are each other.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
The importance of the Opposition in the system of parliamentary government has long received practical recognition in the procedure of Parliament. In 1937 statutory recognition was accorded through the grant of a salary to the Leader of the Opposition. The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually obviated any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’: it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the government, to assume office [and in a footnote: The Speaker’s decision on the identity of the Leader of the Opposition is final (Ministerial and other Salaries Act 1975 (c27) s2 (2)).
- Erskine May, Parliamentary Practice, 23rd edition, pp247-48
If we ended up with the above results the Greens and LDs should state to the Speaker that they're prepared to form a coalition minority administration should the Government resign. That would give him a headache.
Do the Greens and LDs have much in common at the moment? Both are imo certainly closer to Labour than they are each other.
Apart from a lust for power?
That was where I was coming from. But, in truth, they hate each other. One of those rhetorical things but file under "not happening".
My first — and probably only — comment on the Democrat’s candidate for POTUS:
If the party and the Biden family decide that Biden bowing out gives Dems the best chance to win in November, I (agree/)disagree, but I’ll support the nominee and fight like hell to get them elected, and you should too.
If Biden stays in, I’ll support the nominee and fight like hell to get them elected, and you should too.
Nothing changes for me. This election is too important to lose.
Did Sadiq Khan really announce today, 48 hours before the Parliementary elections, that he was going to start charging (in money) electric cars to come into London?
I have just seen this news, a real sign of hubris just over 48 hours before polling booths close, can't imagine that will go down well in some areas.
Have they actually "announced" it?
Reading the article, it's not clear at all, and certainly doesn't sound like any kind of actual announcement.
The telegraph wants to make your flesh creep. If you read the article this plan was announced in 2018. It was "confirmed" this week as In the telegraph rang up and said Is this still the plan and got the answer yes it is. That's the peg the story is hung on.
Seems reasonable to me, EVs are no less congesting than anyone else
I do like the prediction of the last constituency being declared by around 6.30am. I really like the idea that normal people will wake up and every single race will be declared and final result known.
Even in Norn Ireland?
Seems that Count Early, Count Often is the order of the day.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
The importance of the Opposition in the system of parliamentary government has long received practical recognition in the procedure of Parliament. In 1937 statutory recognition was accorded through the grant of a salary to the Leader of the Opposition. The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually obviated any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’: it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the government, to assume office [and in a footnote: The Speaker’s decision on the identity of the Leader of the Opposition is final (Ministerial and other Salaries Act 1975 (c27) s2 (2)).
- Erskine May, Parliamentary Practice, 23rd edition, pp247-48
If we ended up with the above results the Greens and LDs should state to the Speaker that they're prepared to form a coalition minority administration should the Government resign. That would give him a headache.
I'm sure under those circumstances the Alliance would take the LD whip. They already do in the HofL and presumably don't in the HofC because there is no benefit in doing so. A result like that suddenly becomes a huge benefit to do so. Many members of the Alliance are also LD members.
I believe that John Alderdice taking the LD whip in the Lords was a personal decision, not a party one.
I'm not so sure that they'd be happy to take the whip in the HoC - what would they get out of it? They'd want to be very sure risk that they wouldn't hurt one or more parts of their support base in NI.
I committed one ballot paper/polling card balls up
The actor and the archaeologist live next door to each other. Both have similar looking doors, and no numbers. Which is really helpful
I had mail for every house on that street except, it turned out, for the actor, and I accidentally delivered the archaeologist's mail to the actor's house
I realised what I'd done as I reached the archaeologist's door, and dashed back to actor's door. Furious knocking yielded no reply, so I tried the same on the archaeologist with the same result
I knew it was no big deal really, they know each other and would obviously pass the mail on, but I was really angry with myself for messing up one of the few actually important things we have to do
I remember this happened on a Saturday, because the next morning on my walk to work I saw the actor on his way home with a pile of Sunday papers
I apologised profusely for delivering the wrong mail to him
He apologised to me for not answering the door, he was learning lines. He assured me that he'd immediately posted the mail to the archaeologist, and he thanked me for reminding him that he needed to register to vote
I delivered his polling card on the Wednesday
If he is any good at his job he would have dug out the card before polling day. Especially if prompted by the actor.
Based on candidates withdrawing before the second round in France, the number of three-way contests has been reduced from 306 to 95, with the final list of confirmed candidates due to be published tomorrow.
Based on candidates withdrawing before the second round in France, the number of three-way contests has been reduced from 306 to 95, with the final list of confirmed candidates due to be published tomorrow.
Now summer holidays have started I'm being asked to work loads of days off and doing a lot of overtime
I'm hoping to save enough over the next couple of months so that I can go away again at the end of September and beginning of October, but I can't decide where to go next
I've got two options in mind currently: Lisbon to Santiago, or Bayonne to Vannes
Next Spring I've already decided to walk from Biarritz to Montpellier, via Saint Jean Pied de Port, Lourdes and Perpignan. This walk will join my walk to Perpignan two years ago with this year's Camino
It would also join all my walks together, including last year's Tro Breizh (tour de Bretagne), if I do Bayonne to Vannes this year
Or I go to Lisbon this year, and join them all together next Autumn..
Sir Geoffrey Boycott has been diagnosed with throat cancer for the second time and is to undergo surgery to treat the illness.
Boycott, the former England batsman, was told last week that the cancer had returned more than 20 years after he was treated for the illness with a combination of chemotherapy and radiotherapy.
“In the last few weeks I have had an MRI Scan, CT Scan, a PET Scan and two biopsies and it has now been confirmed I have throat cancer and will require an operation,” he told Telegraph Sport.
“From past experience I realise that to overcome cancer a second time I will need excellent medical treatment and quite a bit of luck and even if the operation is successful every cancer patient knows they have to live with the possibility of it returning. So I will just get on with it and hope for the best.”
I do like the prediction of the last constituency being declared by around 6.30am. I really like the idea that normal people will wake up and every single race will be declared and final result known.
Not sure that will be the case. In the North East of Scotland, the last declaration in 2019 was around 5.30. However I think the Highlands, Western Islands, O&S and St Ives were not done until later. It was a 67% Turnout, so with a lower turnout, it might be a bit quicker,
However it is potential recounts that will really slow the process, I could see the last result being late morning this time.
I do like the prediction of the last constituency being declared by around 6.30am. I really like the idea that normal people will wake up and every single race will be declared and final result known.
Not sure that will be the case. In the North East of Scotland, the last declaration in 2019 was around 5.30. However I think the Highlands, Western Islands, O&S and St Ives were not done until later. It was a 67% Turnout, so with a lower turnout, it might be a bit quicker,
However it is potential recounts that will really slow the process, I could see the last result being late morning this time.
Yeah there's the island votes in Argyll etc to boat over, like the Scillies in Cornwall, last ones will be during the morning
I see Survation’s not out yet. Right. Across to the men’s TdF highlights on ITV4 - an exciting day in the Alps - then back to the tennis for Surrey boy Jack Draper which I’ve got on pause.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
The importance of the Opposition in the system of parliamentary government has long received practical recognition in the procedure of Parliament. In 1937 statutory recognition was accorded through the grant of a salary to the Leader of the Opposition. The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually obviated any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’: it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the government, to assume office [and in a footnote: The Speaker’s decision on the identity of the Leader of the Opposition is final (Ministerial and other Salaries Act 1975 (c27) s2 (2)).
- Erskine May, Parliamentary Practice, 23rd edition, pp247-48
If we ended up with the above results the Greens and LDs should state to the Speaker that they're prepared to form a coalition minority administration should the Government resign. That would give him a headache.
Do the Greens and LDs have much in common at the moment? Both are imo certainly closer to Labour than they are each other.
Apart from a lust for power?
I am one of the people reading the runes and feeling that there is going to be a LD overdelivery on Thursday. But even the biggest of overperformances only gets us to the official opposition. Its not quite what I would describe as "power"
What we have in common with the Greens is that we're a destination for people who want to punish the Tories. And why not - otherwise we'd be on for a Labour majority of 250. In which case the official opposition will be non-payroll Labour MPs...
Sir Geoffrey Boycott has been diagnosed with throat cancer for the second time and is to undergo surgery to treat the illness.
Boycott, the former England batsman, was told last week that the cancer had returned more than 20 years after he was treated for the illness with a combination of chemotherapy and radiotherapy.
“In the last few weeks I have had an MRI Scan, CT Scan, a PET Scan and two biopsies and it has now been confirmed I have throat cancer and will require an operation,” he told Telegraph Sport.
“From past experience I realise that to overcome cancer a second time I will need excellent medical treatment and quite a bit of luck and even if the operation is successful every cancer patient knows they have to live with the possibility of it returning. So I will just get on with it and hope for the best.”
Sir Geoffrey Boycott has been diagnosed with throat cancer for the second time and is to undergo surgery to treat the illness.
Boycott, the former England batsman, was told last week that the cancer had returned more than 20 years after he was treated for the illness with a combination of chemotherapy and radiotherapy.
“In the last few weeks I have had an MRI Scan, CT Scan, a PET Scan and two biopsies and it has now been confirmed I have throat cancer and will require an operation,” he told Telegraph Sport.
“From past experience I realise that to overcome cancer a second time I will need excellent medical treatment and quite a bit of luck and even if the operation is successful every cancer patient knows they have to live with the possibility of it returning. So I will just get on with it and hope for the best.”
I do like the prediction of the last constituency being declared by around 6.30am. I really like the idea that normal people will wake up and every single race will be declared and final result known.
Not sure that will be the case. In the North East of Scotland, the last declaration in 2019 was around 5.30. However I think the Highlands, Western Islands, O&S and St Ives were not done until later. It was a 67% Turnout, so with a lower turnout, it might be a bit quicker,
However it is potential recounts that will really slow the process, I could see the last result being late morning this time.
Yeah there's the island votes in Argyll etc to boat over, like the Scillies in Cornwall, last ones will be during the morning
They've lucked out with Lindisfarne this year. A safe crossing window till 00:45 on the Friday. Means ballots boxes won't have to stay with two police officers overnight.
I do like the prediction of the last constituency being declared by around 6.30am. I really like the idea that normal people will wake up and every single race will be declared and final result known.
Not sure that will be the case. In the North East of Scotland, the last declaration in 2019 was around 5.30. However I think the Highlands, Western Islands, O&S and St Ives were not done until later. It was a 67% Turnout, so with a lower turnout, it might be a bit quicker,
However it is potential recounts that will really slow the process, I could see the last result being late morning this time.
Yeah there's the island votes in Argyll etc to boat over, like the Scillies in Cornwall, last ones will be during the morning
They've lucked out with Lindisfarne this year. A safe crossing window till 00:45 on the Friday. Means ballots boxes won't have to stay with two police officers overnight.
Sir Geoffrey Boycott has been diagnosed with throat cancer for the second time and is to undergo surgery to treat the illness.
Boycott, the former England batsman, was told last week that the cancer had returned more than 20 years after he was treated for the illness with a combination of chemotherapy and radiotherapy.
“In the last few weeks I have had an MRI Scan, CT Scan, a PET Scan and two biopsies and it has now been confirmed I have throat cancer and will require an operation,” he told Telegraph Sport.
“From past experience I realise that to overcome cancer a second time I will need excellent medical treatment and quite a bit of luck and even if the operation is successful every cancer patient knows they have to live with the possibility of it returning. So I will just get on with it and hope for the best.”
I do like the prediction of the last constituency being declared by around 6.30am. I really like the idea that normal people will wake up and every single race will be declared and final result known.
Not sure that will be the case. In the North East of Scotland, the last declaration in 2019 was around 5.30. However I think the Highlands, Western Islands, O&S and St Ives were not done until later. It was a 67% Turnout, so with a lower turnout, it might be a bit quicker,
However it is potential recounts that will really slow the process, I could see the last result being late morning this time.
Yeah there's the island votes in Argyll etc to boat over, like the Scillies in Cornwall, last ones will be during the morning
They've lucked out with Lindisfarne this year. A safe crossing window till 00:45 on the Friday. Means ballots boxes won't have to stay with two police officers overnight.
Evening all. Either Survation is employing Nostradamus or they should be the subject of a Polling industry inquiry post Friday. This prediction is so extreme as to be either incredibly brave or totally reckless.
@Survation NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3
34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
Well this is the acid test for MRP polling. Certainly no clustering here. If this is indeed the result then it will be an earthquake, the like of which we have never seen before.
For me, and I think for many if this were to happen It will be the final revenge of Brexit where it ends up destroying its own children. "Get Brexit done" would be the epitaph for the Conservative Party.
Again the MRPs seem more inline with what I would expect from SKS's own ratings improvement.
I think there's plenty of polling evidence to suggest the Tories will get below 100, if the voteshares are proven true. It's a big question whether there may be a late Tory rise or Reform fail to deliver on the ground. That's the only reason I keep any of my prediction range over 100.
Evening all. Either Survation is employing Nostradamus or they should be the subject of a Polling industry inquiry post Friday. This prediction is so extreme as to be either incredibly brave or totally reckless.
I’m not so sure. Most of the bias we had towards the middle seems to have disappeared. The electorate seem to be more volatile than ever.
Comments
Le Pen is ideological. She believes the stuff she peddles. She's the leader but it's the movement that's the thing.
It slightly underestimated the Conservative seat number, though would have been within the MOE and right at the start of the show Curtice was clear he wasn't ruling out a Con majority.
It correctly identified the Lib-Dem evisceration and the SNP wave in Scotland both of which were pretty bold calls.
One of the wonderful thing about ferries is that unlike aircraft, you don't have to stay near the old c*nt sneezing. You can go elsewhere.
I could stay and stand and stare at the sea for pretty much the whole crossing. On an aeroplane it feels like being picked up from one location and plonked down in another. It's not travel, it's teleportation. Whereas on a ferry you move through the landscape.
And while it's wonderful to peer out your little window from a plane as you descend through the clouds, and see Kinder Scout below you and tick off the suburbs (Hyde, Bredbury, Stockport, Cheadle Heath, Cheadle Hulme, Heald Green, Moss Nook) as you descend into Manchester Airport; to look out from deck at the slow arrival of land in the distance as it gradually assumes shape, and then becomes the recognisable shape of Devon, and there, THERE is my homeland ,and then be slowly surrounded by Plymouth Harbour, is an order of magnitude more marvellous an arrival.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/02/sadiq-khan-impose-congestion-charge-electric-cars-london/
The Institute for Government are recommending an expedited spending review covering only a single year, with a comprehensive review scheduled for next year to cover the remainder of the parliament:
(https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-05/when-to-run-the-next-spending-review.pdf)
But hate the idea of a cruise. Very different thing.
The best ferry journey I’ve done was a Greek one from Piraeus to Naxos. Pleasant weather and not too busy. I have an overnighter coming up in December from Dakar to Ziguinchor, which should be fun if a little nervewracking as that crossing was the scene of one of the world’s worst ever ferry disasters.
The actor and the archaeologist live next door to each other. Both have similar looking doors, and no numbers. Which is really helpful
I had mail for every house on that street except, it turned out, for the actor, and I accidentally delivered the archaeologist's mail to the actor's house
I realised what I'd done as I reached the archaeologist's door, and dashed back to actor's door. Furious knocking yielded no reply, so I tried the same on the archaeologist with the same result
I knew it was no big deal really, they know each other and would obviously pass the mail on, but I was really angry with myself for messing up one of the few actually important things we have to do
I remember this happened on a Saturday, because the next morning on my walk to work I saw the actor on his way home with a pile of Sunday papers
I apologised profusely for delivering the wrong mail to him
He apologised to me for not answering the door, he was learning lines. He assured me that he'd immediately posted the mail to the archaeologist, and he thanked me for reminding him that he needed to register to vote
I delivered his polling card on the Wednesday
https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/electoral-disaster-metaphor-guide
That might not be an important distinction, but it is a distinction.
One of the many perks of running a data journalism team is that you can run sweepstakes with lots of very smart people.
Here are the average @thetimes data team seat predictions for Thursday (n=11)
🔵 Con 96
🔴 Lab 446
🟢 Green 4
🟡 SNP 16
🟠 Lib Dem 63
🟣 Reform 5
https://x.com/TomHCalver/status/1808089365597270031
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-general-election-results-timing-b2571952.html
Reminds me of, I think it was More In Common, last night posting a Wisdom of the Crowd poll, where the respondents had to guess what the final result would be, and it was very close to recent MiC VI polls!
if you read it it’s not a real news article it’s a thinly veiled Tory puff piece
Pretty shameless tbh
Reading the article, it's not clear at all, and certainly doesn't sound like any kind of actual announcement.
Who do British voters think would be the better PM for the UK? (28 June - 2 July)
Keir Starmer 48% (-1)
Rishi Sunak 25% (–)
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1808178822191501465
Something has gone wrong with the polling. This implies Starmer has had a very good campaign.
And wouldn't some folk complain more about Party of Wales without the article?
Anyway, dinner cooking calls.
My first — and probably only — comment on the Democrat’s candidate for POTUS:
If the party and the Biden family decide that Biden bowing out gives Dems the best chance to win in November, I (agree/)disagree, but I’ll support the nominee and fight like hell to get them elected, and you should too.
If Biden stays in, I’ll support the nominee and fight like hell to get them elected, and you should too.
Nothing changes for me. This election is too important to lose.
You could put a department store mannequin in a suit and superglue it to a podium and I would vote for that over Trump 100 times out of 100.
https://x.com/Angry_Staffer/status/1808190492922073251
But it’s the votes at the margin that are the concern.
Seems reasonable to me, EVs are no less congesting than anyone else
Seems that Count Early, Count Often is the order of the day.
I'm not so sure that they'd be happy to take the whip in the HoC - what would they get out of it? They'd want to be very sure risk that they wouldn't hurt one or more parts of their support base in NI.
Not-Starmer: 52%
It's Brexit all over again.
https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1808194422825230481
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/02/french-elections-how-many-candidates-have-withdrawn-from-the-second-round_6676407_8.html
Two days before the election he called - this is the PM’s message - even Rishi Sunak is conceding Labour is on course to win
@RishiSunak
Stop the supermajority. Vote Conservative on 4th July.
A total of 307 seats could be fought in triangulaires - a huge increase from eight in 2022 and just one in 2017.
Even now much reduced that's a remarkable increase.
I'm hoping to save enough over the next couple of months so that I can go away again at the end of September and beginning of October, but I can't decide where to go next
I've got two options in mind currently: Lisbon to Santiago, or Bayonne to Vannes
Next Spring I've already decided to walk from Biarritz to Montpellier, via Saint Jean Pied de Port, Lourdes and Perpignan. This walk will join my walk to Perpignan two years ago with this year's Camino
It would also join all my walks together, including last year's Tro Breizh (tour de Bretagne), if I do Bayonne to Vannes this year
Or I go to Lisbon this year, and join them all together next Autumn..
Hmm
Boycott, the former England batsman, was told last week that the cancer had returned more than 20 years after he was treated for the illness with a combination of chemotherapy and radiotherapy.
“In the last few weeks I have had an MRI Scan, CT Scan, a PET Scan and two biopsies and it has now been confirmed I have throat cancer and will require an operation,” he told Telegraph Sport.
“From past experience I realise that to overcome cancer a second time I will need excellent medical treatment and quite a bit of luck and even if the operation is successful every cancer patient knows they have to live with the possibility of it returning. So I will just get on with it and hope for the best.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/07/02/sir-geoffrey-boycott-cancer-diagnosis-england-yorkshire/
However it is potential recounts that will really slow the process, I could see the last result being late morning this time.
Election, what election?
What we have in common with the Greens is that we're a destination for people who want to punish the Tories. And why not - otherwise we'd be on for a Labour majority of 250. In which case the official opposition will be non-payroll Labour MPs...
@Survation
NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3
34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3
34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
Means ballots boxes won't have to stay with two police officers overnight.
https://holyislandcrossingtimes.northumberland.gov.uk/
Also CON 64 LD 61!
LAB 42%
CON 23%
according to their website
For me, and I think for many if this were to happen It will be the final revenge of Brexit where it ends up destroying its own children. "Get Brexit done" would be the epitaph for the Conservative Party.
That is... "if".