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Are we set for the greatest polling failure in history? Sunak thinks so – politicalbetting.com
Are we set for the greatest polling failure in history? Sunak thinks so – politicalbetting.com
?Hung parliament is in our grasp, says SunakRead more here ??https://t.co/VplCErCECm
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How exciting!
'Sir John Curtice projects 370 Labour seats, 191 Tory seats and 34 LD and 34 SNP seats, 2 Plaid, 1 Green and 0 Reform on universal national swing based on analysis of 8 recent polls.
However on an MRP change the results look significantly different, with Curtice saying Labour could then get 447 seats, the Tories 98, the LDs 53, the SNP 21, Reform 8 and the Greens and Plaid 2 each'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cl7y2xj728do
Norwich North and Norwich South - both will be Labour by a distance (gain and hold) - in Norwich South I've seen less Green activity than expected so now I think second will be a toss up between them and Con.
Going clockwise from Yarmouth.....
Great Yarmouth - genuine three way toss up Con/Ref/Lab, I wouldn't want to put money on it, anyone could win. I will say Labour's Keir Cozens has run an effective local campaign so I'll give it to Labour.
South Norfolk - Labour gain. If rural Norfolk is going down, it starts here, most Lab friendly bit and has chunks of suburbia that are going leftwards.
Waveney Valley - a new seat with the best Tory bits of old Waveney, Greens putting ina strong showing but I fancy tactical voting will be insufficiently effective here and its a Tory win/Hold
South West Norfolk - on paper easy Tory hold but Truss name is mud even here, I have a feeling this is going to be a Lab gain
North West Norfolk - Labour took this in 97 but its been reverse gear ever since and despite some Reform promise here, a Tory hold for me
Mid Norfolk - will be a fairly comfortable (10% plus) Tory hold
North Norfolk - genuine LD/Tory toss up and I have no idea which way it goes. Let's give it to LD so they are on the board.
Broadland and Fakenham - there's a lot of money here. Tory hold, by a more comfortable than expected margin.
Lab 5
Con 4
LD 1
If so, truly remarkable they can't find a single 16/17 y/o girl out of ~500, who would vote tory.
Astonishing.
The brand is toxic af.
If the Tories get a HP their vote share will have risen more generally than simply 130,000 (Which is probably mathematically correct) votes in the right places.
No mention of Saturday.......
The New Statesman video with Andrew Marr thought the Tories might do better than polling states - that was the word on the ground - could just be Labour and Tory BS of course.
#qtwtain
But enough about 2019...
#confused
A prime minister dining with his family on a Friday evening is more readily available in a crisis than a prime minister on a lads' weekend with the KGB in a castle in Perugia
But I don't believe that!
I think it was Rishi Sunak.
Oh...
Still astonishing, mind.
WRONG AGAIN. He has said it several times in the press over the years, including many recent interviews such as this one.
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/lady-victoria-starmer-wife-labour-162500941.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGrPXL6-q3wYzGAs4kpv7MpoQ3BvaJSZvcxZ7GpDQ95HAO29_iq6MPyMWo8aEYKsPqtEeRmvFgXJLjBuLrGaLXqtUT7C3-ZocjNoJiGyg5GU6THxL_noqJvRiRNu7QibHGhphBmuVzet8JKtdm6B1sx9Jgh4EHSP-u0BuYFD9Na2
It’s like the tweets in 2016 saying ‘78,000 votes in 3 states won Trump the election’. Well yes that’s true but you would need them all to flip exactly how you want them to.
We dont have an electoral college system here and we have much less of a 2 party system. 130,000 voters switching would need to happen in *exactly* the right way and as you say it’s much much harder than those numbers look.
Also if there was a remote chance of NOM you would expect there to be at least one pollster making a prediction somewhere close to that. Instead, even the ones relatively friendly to the Tories are still huge Labour majorities.
https://www.thejc.com/lets-talk/its-disgusting-to-attack-keir-starmer-for-keeping-friday-nights-for-family-vxtmo9br
The Reagans used to watch soap operas in the evening at the White House and he was one of the best US Presidents ever
Here is the youth surge towards Le Pen. Look at that massive leap in the youth vote
https://imgur.com/gallery/u27cYgk
She’s gone from the mid teens to the mid 30 percent. In one election. A ginormous leap
Also see this about Bardella, from the same FT article
“Driving much of the change is Le Pen’s 28-year old protégé Jordan Bardella, who appeals to women and does not have the baggage of the Le Pen name.”
Women - younger women - are shifting to the RN. Despite the mewlings of geriatric thermos-freak and self declared anarchist @Heathener, sitting under her tartan blankie on the top deck of her hipster revolutionary bus heading into suburban Sidmouth, I am right. The young are moving to the hard right
Partygate, sleaze, Trussonomics, Truss herself ffs!, immigration, NHS waiting lists, Brexitshambles, public services, PPE scandals, deficit, defence, more sleaze, Rwanda, D-day, bettingate...
Just go away and sort yourselves out!
So the interview was given to a targeted publication with a small readership three years ago.
Anything more recent that’s an actual interview where he volunteers the info?
The Tory lead you've been waiting for! Lol
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1808124302874620219?s=19
REDACTED
Ive bought popcorn, lots of popcorn
I'm struggling to see the read across to UK politics.
Bad oyster ?
24 minutes per hour, 7 hours a day.
Melenchon's leftist NFP block got 48% amongst 18 to 24s to 33% for Le Pen's RN and 25 to 34s voted 38% for NFP to 32% for RN.
RN did best amongst 50-59s where it got 40%.
Macron's ENS block won over 70s, getting 32% amongst those pensioners, to 29% for RN, 18% for NFP and 14% for Les Republicains
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election#Results
Add to that the opaque layers of adjustment being applied by many of the pollsters, and we find ourselves in a strange situation where we have lots of data but very little information.
The moments leading up to the exit poll results being announced will be properly nail-biting...
On topic: Isn't this just a variant of the "If only Jeremy had got a few thousand more votes in 2017, he'd have become Prime Minister" thing that we always get from the losing side? The flaw being that the votes aren't going to land to give you a majority of one in multiple constituencies. Well they might, but they won't, will they?
But, as others have already said, what else can Sunak run on? Not his record, not his plans, not a realistic chance of doing anything but losing very badly.
The Sunday Times magazine did a really interesting profile on Keir Starmer last month. Well worth reading it.
The Jewish upbringing for his family was part of the article.
The one thing all sensible people should want to avoid is Ref becoming the "voice of the Right" or Nigel forcing a Ref/Con merger and becoming LOTO.
What is astonishing is the huge surge in youthful votes for the hard right. That’s the surprising and profound change - and it mirrors exactly what we see elsewhere. The massive rise in support for the AfD in Germany in the young
And what’s driving this is, in part, a fear of crime and insecurity on the street - which often affects the young more and especially young women
It's possible they might surprise on the upside but I think we all know they won't...
The thing is I would defend the Starmer’s Jewish identity and cultural choices to the hilt - what isn’t cool is if he hides it if it might be electorally more wise, wants the kudos for being the family man at the same time and then when called out, wrongly, for being a slacker then has the anti-semitism line raised in his defence.
He has no good reason to be coy about the significance of taking Friday nights off, just strange he felt it not important enough to mention on the interview with Chris’s Evans which goes out to a large listener base.
I could left out 'sleaze' and 'more sleaze' from the Tory shambles though and it would still be a pretty damning list of failure.
But get your popcorn in - you will have the chance for some consolation pointing out Labour cock-ups, that's guaranteed. I am confident it won't be nearly as bad as the past 10 years though.
EDIT - posting this under a tree sheltering from a passing shower here in Fochabers!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/22/you-asked-me-questions-ive-never-asked-myself-keir-starmers-most-personal-interview-yet
Lib Demmery is a lifetime’s commitment.
I don't think any party that strays too far from the centre will ever win real power in Britain in our lifetimes. See also Corbyn and Foot.
******************************************************
Sheet 1
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TskjcRFG9P0FLFeLzU6m3hefToD1aSC8rw8tj6_H7Rg/edit?usp=sharing
Sheet 2
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EFY7Dx7JWHtb_ys28ytrmM-zHJTM8f1gLCUkUX383jA/edit?usp=sharing
Once these have (hopefully !) populated
I will manually copy paste appropriately into Sheet 3 which will take you to the end of the evening
Sheet 3
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ed3dPoQSbmeOQKdZ3klOspS6uZDJ6x5W5xacgX-oWk4/edit?usp=sharing
**********************************************************
The source of the updates is https://democracyclub.org.uk/ and this will (Hopefully !) put them into spreadsheet format
Scott Alexander who is approximately the smartest guy on the internet analyzes US prediction markets (which are like betting markets but minus the money because that's illegal and plus a lot of bay area techbroisme) and concludes they are telling him
"Replacing Biden with Harris is neutral to slightly positive; replacing Biden with Newsom or a generic Democrat increases their odds of winning by 10 - 15 percentage points."
Important if true.
I were a journo with a piece of juicy gossip that I was sure no one else was going to find out about, I'd wait until the day before the election to release it for maximum impact.
Just noticed I was beaten to it by @IanB2
And yes he did: the importance of the Jewish identity for his wife and himself, as well as bringing his children up in the Jewish faith, attending their liberal north London synagogue each week when he can.
For others, with under 48 hours to go until polls open this probably isn’t the time to go into what would need to be really careful and nuanced discussion about Jewish cultural / family / or religious identity.
I’ve lived with Orthdox and liberals as well as non-practising Jews who still keep Friday night dinner and have attended many synagogues. It’s so complex and nuanced.
But this has really peed me off. Any last vestiges of respect for Sunak (and now Maria Caulfield) have been shredded.
“She grew up in north London, the daughter of Bernard, an Ashkenazi Jew, and Barbara, who converted to Judaism. When I suggest that makes Victoria Jewish, and his children, too, Starmer demurs. “No, no, they’re not Jewish for reasons I won’t bore you with. Bernard’s dad’s family didn’t accept that. So it – ” he waves a hand to suggest it’s not up for discussion. The family occasionally attend a liberal synagogue. “Pretty much every week” there’s a challah and they say kiddush with Bernard, or sometimes with Victoria’s sister on Zoom. Their Jewish heritage is important, he says. “And we’re very keen for the children to know about it, to understand it. Half of the family are Jewish, they’re either here or in Israel.” No one was directly affected by 7 October. “Thank God,” he says. But they’ve been affected by the war. “No doubt about that.”
Thatcher was thought unelectable in 1975 and too rightwing. We don't always vote for centrist governments
https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1808112664146481618?s=19
Not too far off IPSOS,
New Statesman is level here.
Savanta, More in Common, Focaldata and Survation have this as a whopping Labour hold.
I see it every day, and I've still no idea.
Material Requirement Planning is what I thought it stood for.
Thursday: 30% don't vote
Multilevel regression with poststratification
(which means f*ck-all to me tbf)