@Survation NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3
34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
Oh jeepers. Reform on 7? That’s a disaster
Nah, not enough to do anything, but enough to highlight how batshit and lazy their MPs are. On past experience most will be sitting as independents by Christmas.
Again the MRPs seem more inline with what I would expect from SKS's own ratings improvement.
I think there's plenty of polling evidence to suggest the Tories will get below 100, if the voteshares are proven true. It's a big question whether there may be a late Tory rise or Reform fail to deliver on the ground. That's the only reason I keep any of my prediction range over 100.
The polling for the parties shows a consistent drop for Labour yet SKS's ratings have gone up to all time highs during the campaign. So that suggests tactical voting to me.
Evening all. Either Survation is employing Nostradamus or they should be the subject of a Polling industry inquiry post Friday. This prediction is so extreme as to be either incredibly brave or totally reckless.
?
The figures are derived from polling data using a mathematical model. Where do bravery and recklessness come into it?
Evening all. Either Survation is employing Nostradamus or they should be the subject of a Polling industry inquiry post Friday. This prediction is so extreme as to be either incredibly brave or totally reckless.
They are in line with other MRP polls. As I say these MRP polls will either be correct or we'll never see another MRP again.
@Survation NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3
34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
Oh jeepers. Reform on 7? That’s a disaster
Nah, not enough to do anything, but enough to highlight how batshit and lazy their MPs are. On past experience most will be sitting as independents by Christmas.
So long as the 7 didn’t include Farage you may be right. Otherwise a completely disoriented Tory party might be vulnerable.
Labour is set to displace the SNP as the largest party in Scotland. Our probabilistic seat count suggests Labour will win 38 of Scotland’s 57 seats, the SNP 10, Liberal Democrats 5, and Conservatives 4.
Labour within spitting distance of taking us all back to 2010.
Stop the supermajority. Vote Conservative on 4th July.
The most cataclysmic election campaign ever. A final pitch of "Please Don't Kill Us!!! Pleeeeeeaasse!!!!!" accompanied by the most tone deaf guff you could imagine. The denouement to the election is that its entirely self-inflicted.
Nobody forced Rishi to call this election or run this campaign or say these things. Its all on him.
Evening all. Either Survation is employing Nostradamus or they should be the subject of a Polling industry inquiry post Friday. This prediction is so extreme as to be either incredibly brave or totally reckless.
What makes you say that? It is very similar to what Electoral calculus are predicting. So they are hardly on their own.
LAB 468 (41%) CON 69 (22%) LIB DEM 67 (10%) REFUK 6 (16%) GREEN 3 (6%) SNP 15
Labour Majority 286
Lib Dems to finish 2nd in seats without Labour has drifted out to 7.6 and I really like it on these poll showings. Seems like it really doesn’t need a huge amount to line up to come off, even if it looks slightly less likely than when the Tories were polling in the teens
The importance of the Opposition in the system of parliamentary government has long received practical recognition in the procedure of Parliament. In 1937 statutory recognition was accorded through the grant of a salary to the Leader of the Opposition. The prevalence (on the whole) of the two-party system has usually obviated any uncertainty as to which party has the right to be called the ‘Official Opposition’: it is the largest minority party which is prepared, in the event of the resignation of the government, to assume office [and in a footnote: The Speaker’s decision on the identity of the Leader of the Opposition is final (Ministerial and other Salaries Act 1975 (c27) s2 (2)).
- Erskine May, Parliamentary Practice, 23rd edition, pp247-48
If we ended up with the above results the Greens and LDs should state to the Speaker that they're prepared to form a coalition minority administration should the Government resign. That would give him a headache.
Do the Greens and LDs have much in common at the moment? Both are imo certainly closer to Labour than they are each other.
Apart from a lust for power?
I am one of the people reading the runes and feeling that there is going to be a LD overdelivery on Thursday. But even the biggest of overperformances only gets us to the official opposition. Its not quite what I would describe as "power"
What we have in common with the Greens is that we're a destination for people who want to punish the Tories. And why not - otherwise we'd be on for a Labour majority of 250. In which case the official opposition will be non-payroll Labour MPs...
As a lifelong Liberal, I can honestly say that a lust for power has not really figured too much in my political convictions.
I believe in Liberal principles and want to see them at the heart of the national debate. No other party has such principles, so through thick and thin I have stuck with the Liberal Democrats. No party is perfect, but I have a circle of friends and colleagues in the party who I like and respect who have come to similar conclusions, and though we do not agree on everything, we do believe in and trust to a set of common ideas that we think will advance the well being of our country.
So on Thursday God Speed the Liberal Democrats, and good luck to all our candidates.
Evening all. Either Survation is employing Nostradamus or they should be the subject of a Polling industry inquiry post Friday. This prediction is so extreme as to be either incredibly brave or totally reckless.
?
The figures are derived from polling data using a mathematical model. Where do bravery and recklessness come into it?
Evening all. Either Survation is employing Nostradamus or they should be the subject of a Polling industry inquiry post Friday. This prediction is so extreme as to be either incredibly brave or totally reckless.
They are in line with other MRP polls. As I say these MRP polls will either be correct or we'll never see another MRP again.
Evening all. Either Survation is employing Nostradamus or they should be the subject of a Polling industry inquiry post Friday. This prediction is so extreme as to be either incredibly brave or totally reckless.
It’s neither. Either their methodology is right or wrong. Bravery and recklessness don’t come into it.
It's the smallest Labour lead form Redfield & Wilton since the 18pp lead on 10th March (42 - 24).
But all agree that Con has had a far worse campaign than Lab.
Implication is that none of it - not even D-Day - will make any difference at all when people actually cast their votes.
Well.... If the swingback is really Tory voters who were always going to vote Tory, but weren't willing to admit it, then we don't know whether the swingback would have been larger without D-Day, Wagergate, etc.
Did Sadiq Khan really announce today, 48 hours before the Parliementary elections, that he was going to start charging (in money) electric cars to come into London?
I have just seen this news, a real sign of hubris just over 48 hours before polling booths close, can't imagine that will go down well in some areas.
It has nothing to do with the Westminster election, there's no good reason to announce it during the campaign period for Westminster, it looks like a clear wrecking move from Khan.
If I was Starmer, then Khan would be dead to me after doing this.
Survation. @Survation NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count: LAB 484 CON 64 LD 61 SNP 10 RFM 7 PC 3 GRN 3
34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
Fair chunk of the Tory parliamentary party would be Scottish if the SNP are down to 10.
If it comes out like that the lib dems will decide they are finally breaking through sadly. They aren't very few people want the lib dems anywhere near power. Most of those voters will be voting ld because they don't want to vote labour or tory not because they have any affection for the lib dems. If they get that many their vote the following parliament will sink like a rock
Comments
They've moved in a bit, from 150 to 125/1, but I think still very good value
I spoke to four more new Lib Dem voters today, and nobody talking about voting any other way
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/wiltshire-east
I still think the Tories will be over 100 seats.
Looking at the probabilities this MRP has a 47% chance of Ed Davey being LOTO.
Based on a 42% Lab vote share and a 23% Tory one.
The Tory seat range is 34-99.
Very punchy.
NEW THREAD
The figures are derived from polling data using a mathematical model. Where do bravery and recklessness come into it?
That’s perilously close to extinction for the Tories. A fate has never been so richly deserved
Labour within spitting distance of taking us all back to 2010.
Nobody forced Rishi to call this election or run this campaign or say these things. Its all on him.
I believe in Liberal principles and want to see them at the heart of the national debate. No other party has such principles, so through thick and thin I have stuck with the Liberal Democrats. No party is perfect, but I have a circle of friends and colleagues in the party who I like and respect who have come to similar conclusions, and though we do not agree on everything, we do believe in and trust to a set of common ideas that we think will advance the well being of our country.
So on Thursday God Speed the Liberal Democrats, and good luck to all our candidates.
*giggles quietly*
If the swingback is really Tory voters who were always going to vote Tory, but weren't willing to admit it, then we don't know whether the swingback would have been larger without D-Day, Wagergate, etc.
If I was Starmer, then Khan would be dead to me after doing this.
99% certain for Labour to win more than 418 seats is a big call. I hope for their sakes that they are not wrong.