I think we could see some really surprising Green results on Thursday. The shock of the election. I’d expected their polling to decline but it’s not, and the supermajority schtick may be partly responsible.
They could end up with several second places behind the Tories. If the Tories stay unpopular and the shine comes off Labour, that combined with further local government gains and greater tactical voting clarity could deliver them a number of seats in 2029.
Tories admit Libdems will wins dozens of seats from them, on the door step they go hours at a time without meeting a Tory voter.
GOTV is matching the polls.
I’m crossing my fingers tight. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
I’m in Carshalton tomorrow with the youngest doing some leafleting.
"Revenge". Lol. You were our coalition partner, and you're an entirely irrelevant party riding on the coattails of a desire to change the government.
Your "revenge" is like a two-year leaving a used banana skin on the kitchen floor, and then slapping their older sister and running away.
You’re a bundle of charm today, Casino. Get used to entirely irrelevant for a while.
He’s right tho. All this well meant advice to the Tories to become new Labour is a load of duplicitous shite
1. They’re scared an actual right wing party with actual convictions will be popular. And it will
2. Fuck em
It will be as popular as gonorrhea.
Remember. Farage AFTER Putingate has 27% favourable and Reform have the same. 27% favourable. Almost a third of the country is rather keen on reform under Farage
That’s the target for the Tories (or whichever right right wing party emerges from this chaos). Aim slightly to the left of Farage and they will get 35-40% easily - especially after 5 sickening years of Labour wokeness, ineptitude and yet more migration
But they have to be actually right wing and they have to actually mean it and they have show how they can deliver proper right wing polices from day 1
It’s not hard. Do that and they can overturn Labour in one term
5th July breaking ...
Britain indicates desire for proper right wing government with huge centre left landslide!
I think we could see some really surprising Green results on Thursday. The shock of the election. I’d expected their polling to decline but it’s not, and the supermajority schtick may be partly responsible.
They could end up with several second places behind the Tories. If the Tories stay unpopular and the shine comes off Labour, that combined with further local government gains and greater tactical voting clarity could deliver them a number of seats in 2029.
There's an argument to buy the Greens on the spreads, but whenever I've looked at it I can't get them up above 3-4 seats at best, which hardly seems worth it.
I think we could see some really surprising Green results on Thursday. The shock of the election. I’d expected their polling to decline but it’s not, and the supermajority schtick may be partly responsible.
They could end up with several second places behind the Tories. If the Tories stay unpopular and the shine comes off Labour, that combined with further local government gains and greater tactical voting clarity could deliver them a number of seats in 2029.
The climate crisis is a greatly underplayed element of the current election debates (usually in a negative sense, like "It's getting in the way of my poor constituents parking their 3 SUVs on the pavement and tooling around at 70mph, how dare it"). I think we can see Green vote increasing considerably, not without some assistance from the socialist element if the current mentality of UKG is followed by SKSLab.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang this nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
In ten years time the Tory party will be drinking cheap cider out of a plastic bottle in a paper bag by the war memorial whilst people wander past muttering 'didn't they used to be somebody?'
Indeed, there’s a real possibility of this if they follow these far right ideas. Lunacy.
They'd be a hell of a lot of beggars and people literally dying in the street if these policies were followed.
We have a hell of a lot of beggars and people dying in the street NOW. Try Camden
A big debate on Twitter - often amongst Democrats - about Biden’s alleged dementia. As they are discussing it - and using the D word - surely we can
Lots of them are desperate for him to step aside. One argument they are making is that dementia is not just about mumbling and slowing, which can indeed be handled by good advisors taking over most tasks. Some dementias turn you paranoid, angry, aggressive - they can make you hallucinate
Someone in that state simply cannot be POTUS. Not anywhere near it. Logically, Biden either has to prove he’s not got dementia or he has to go. If he doesn’t do either of these he is absolutely going to lose as Americans absorb this logic
But Biden has not shown any of those symptoms.
Trump however...
(No doubt something is wrong with Biden but there are plenty of other options. My partner reckons she knows what it is, and she works in old age psych)
So what is it?
Parkinson's (but with no tremor), but they aren't giving him the full whack of medication because the side effects would be too obvious. Would explain the on/off days.
That's an interesting theory.
It raises the equation of how they spin the next off day that he has. 'A cold' doesn't really work.
I've been corrected - if Parkinson's, the medication gives you on/off hours.
So that would mean many more "off" hours during the election campaign. It does all feel a bit desperate tbh. Time for an Address to the Nation. We could even provide a diplomatic carrot and offer a holiday at Balmoral if he goes soon.
"if Parkinson's, the medication gives you on/off hours."
It varies from person to person to be honest.
But if he does have PD and the Dems are hiding this and this is later found out during the campaign then Trump can start loading his removal van with the gold golf clubs or whatever and head straight to the WH.
Later stages of PD can often include hallucinations, wild delusions and major memory issues.
When I did my coastal walk, another guy was doing it in the other direction. He was Tom Isaacs, and he had early-onset Parkinsons, diagnosed at the age of 26. He had to take a cocktail of drugs every morning, and some days they did not work. He described having a scheduled meeting with one local worthy one morning (Tom's walk was raising money for Parkinsons research), but the drugs had not yet kicked in. A supporter had to help him walk to the meeting, and apparently the worthy thought it was all a con: if he could not walk to the meeting, how could he be walking the coast?
Tom was an amazing chap. I was in awe.
Parkinsons is a nasty little bugger. Early onset Parkinsons is tragic.
That variability is a fairly normal experience for disabled people.
An example I think I quoted here was someone with Fibromyalgia looking for a recent Sunday half day cycling route of 35 miles, who is unable to lift her cycle up 2 steps without a lot of pain, or often walk far at all.
And it all varies day by day. One problem she may get will be with the lack of expertise in the Benefit processes. The poorly skilled assessor will go something like "but you can ride a bike so you must be fine right cross, so you have no entitlement". That happens repeatedly with people known to me, so a lot of them keep quiet quiet as they know they may be punished for it.
That kind of subtlety is beyond (whether actually or conveniently) the comprehension of the likes of Reform and the current senior generation of Loboto-Tories.
I'll get a similar variable ability next time my Hairy Cell Leukemia kicks off, but that will be years away and will knock me over completely (ie in bed most of the day due to no energy due to inability of blood to carry it) for a couple of months until re-treated.
In a smaller way, I had the same problem when my ankle was bad at uni. I'd be in pain, but I'd walk the seven or so miles along the Regent's Canal from Mile End to Paddington, then get the tube back. Some people (*not* my friends) would say: "If you can walk that, you can't really be in pain."
The thing was, I was in pain. It's just that the walking often made little difference to the pain, and the walk improved my mental mood massively. I'd feel like I'd won a battle.
People always say you can't make cuts. You can, but to do so you need to make choices.
Things that I would abolish/change to cut spending.
1: Abolish Triple Lock (plus). Everyone has the same tax threshold as each other. Pensions to go up by average wages, whether wages be higher or lower than prices everyone's wages go up or down in unison.
2: Abolish planning consent. Let alone one build whatever they want, no questions asked, so long as it is within the legal regulations, wherever they want except for very limited areas (eg AONB).
Everyone also says taxes can't rise so to counterbalance a hefty tax rise for some.
3: Merge Universal Credit (and taper)/pensions, Income Tax, National Insurance and Student Loans/Graduate Tax into a single unified tax and benefit system. Everyone on the same income pays the same rate of tax no matter their ages, employment status, nor how they got their income.
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
— 1 in 5 plan on voting tactically “primarily motivated by anti-Tory sentiment”
— that’s up from 14% in 2019 and double 2010
— 1 in 3 Lib Dem voters say they’re voting tactically
I still think the Lib Dem surge is being massively underestimated and think the bets on them forming the opposition are big value.
Do we know if any of the MRPs are accounting for tactical voting on this kind of scale?
Older PB'ers will remember talk of David Steele's LIb/SDP `surge' that was promised so often but never materialised.....I wont hold my breath, I dont sense the party is either
We´d also remember that his names is spelled Steel though.
The Liberal Democrats are targeting very tightly, but in the face of Tory collapse there is some scope to expand beyond the core targets, especially since the Tories do not seem to have enough resources to deploy in a lot of their own seats. Nevertheless, though, when the overall poll number is still only in the low/mid teens, it does not make sense to shoot for the stars but then miss the moon. To go from 15 MPs to 60+ in a single step would still be an astonishing achievement. We will see if the polls crystallise for the Lib Dems in the coming week, but in any event FPTP is being systematically discredited in the eyes of a growing majority.
The new Tories - reform Tories - or whatever the new properly right wing party is called - should seriously persuade Matt Goodwin to become a major part of it. He’s very articulate and quite telegenic and he’s smart. He wasted as the academic that everyone hates
Politics is his future. He could be Britain’s Bardella
Tories admit Libdems will wins dozens of seats from them, on the door step they go hours at a time without meeting a Tory voter.
GOTV is matching the polls.
I’m crossing my fingers tight. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
I’m in Carshalton tomorrow with the youngest doing some leafleting.
"Revenge". Lol. You were our coalition partner, and you're an entirely irrelevant party riding on the coattails of a desire to change the government.
Your "revenge" is like a two-year leaving a used banana skin on the kitchen floor, and then slapping their older sister and running away.
You’re a bundle of charm today, Casino. Get used to entirely irrelevant for a while.
He’s right tho. All this well meant advice to the Tories to become new Labour is a load of duplicitous shite
1. They’re scared an actual right wing party with actual convictions will be popular. And it will
2. Fuck em
It will be as popular as gonorrhea.
Remember. Farage AFTER Putingate has 27% favourable and Reform have the same. 27% favourable. Almost a third of the country is rather keen on reform under Farage
That’s the target for the Tories (or whichever right right wing party emerges from this chaos). Aim slightly to the left of Farage and they will get 35-40% easily - especially after 5 sickening years of Labour wokeness, ineptitude and yet more migration
But they have to be actually right wing and they have to actually mean it and they have show how they can deliver proper right wing polices from day 1
It’s not hard. Do that and they can overturn Labour in one term
Fundamental maths failure there.
27% is little more than a quarter, not almost a third.
The new Tories - reform Tories - or whatever the new properly right wing party is called - should seriously persuade Matt Goodwin to become a major part of it. He’s very articulate and quite telegenic and he’s smart. He wasted as the academic that everyone hates
Politics is his future. He could be Britain’s Bardella
The new Tories - reform Tories - or whatever the new properly right wing party is called - should seriously persuade Matt Goodwin to become a major part of it. He’s very articulate and quite telegenic and he’s smart. He wasted as the academic that everyone hates
Politics is his future. He could be Britain’s Bardella
"Reformed Conservatives" ?
Something like that? After this debacle they will need a rebrand - seriously. They can’t be the Conservatives any more. That brand is dead
The new Tories - reform Tories - or whatever the new properly right wing party is called - should seriously persuade Matt Goodwin to become a major part of it. He’s very articulate and quite telegenic and he’s smart. He wasted as the academic that everyone hates
Politics is his future. He could be Britain’s Bardella
For some reason a lot of PBers think he's an idiot.
Why do they get into such a wankfest over this every year?
The average viewer of a 24 hour news channel couldn't give a feck about a bunch of twats living in squalor for a week, and listening to bands they have never heard of.
And paying thousands of pound in order to do so.
I can fully accept the BBC wanting to televise the event so that music fans can watch.
But it is not news.
The news channels are not Smash Hits magazine.
The merging of news coverage into consumer/general interest/feature/whingefest/ignorance sharing and worst of all 'awareness raising' is both unproductive and boring. It also allows especially the BBC to air their gigantic non-impartiality about all of the matters raised.
And they do all this instead of the vital task of covering world affairs (Sudan is a prime example) with proper coverage and updates.
(When they bother to cover Sudan it's to tell us that being a war victim is deeply unpleasant, which we knew, not to tell us which side is prevailing where, and why, and why which country is arming them).
Grow a massive beard and wear a stripey tee shirt and a red kerchief and live on one of these brilliant islands and drink kir Breton and espresso at 9am, and vote for Breton dynasty the Le Pens every five years
Grow a massive beard and wear a stripey tee shirt and a red kerchief and live on one of these brilliant islands and drink kir Breton and espresso at 9am, and vote for Breton dynasty the Le Pens every five years
They are Cornish anyway. They are my people
What's wrong with the Welsh? A lot closer to Newent.
I think we could see some really surprising Green results on Thursday. The shock of the election. I’d expected their polling to decline but it’s not, and the supermajority schtick may be partly responsible.
They could end up with several second places behind the Tories. If the Tories stay unpopular and the shine comes off Labour, that combined with further local government gains and greater tactical voting clarity could deliver them a number of seats in 2029.
There's an argument to buy the Greens on the spreads, but whenever I've looked at it I can't get them up above 3-4 seats at best, which hardly seems worth it.
There's literally no investment of time or effort beyond the target 4 seats
I think we could see some really surprising Green results on Thursday. The shock of the election. I’d expected their polling to decline but it’s not, and the supermajority schtick may be partly responsible.
They could end up with several second places behind the Tories. If the Tories stay unpopular and the shine comes off Labour, that combined with further local government gains and greater tactical voting clarity could deliver them a number of seats in 2029.
The climate crisis is a greatly underplayed element of the current election debates (usually in a negative sense, like "It's getting in the way of my poor constituents parking their 3 SUVs on the pavement and tooling around at 70mph, how dare it"). I think we can see Green vote increasing considerably, not without some assistance from the socialist element if the current mentality of UKG is followed by SKSLab.
There's little doubt the climate crisis and environmental issues are rising in salience. The Greens have been really quite bad at taking advantage because have tied themselves to other issues their activists like but which put off normal people with who share their environmental concerns. Plus have a ludicrous NIMBY streak that undermines their climate credentials because they never want to build anything that might actually help.
In some ways the other side of the Faragist coin - in taking advantage of disillusionment with the state of the nation by telling their own niche everything they want to hear. Probably not sustainable longer term when they'll have to grow up a bit, rebrand and shake off the cranks - as Reform will too - to grow their vote more permanently and escape their contradictions.
“Been looking at the Glastonbury crowds on the TV and in the papers. Yet to see a single black person. Does this white intensely middle-class non-event operate an apartheid system? Or are people of colour just denied entry?”
The new Tories - reform Tories - or whatever the new properly right wing party is called - should seriously persuade Matt Goodwin to become a major part of it. He’s very articulate and quite telegenic and he’s smart. He wasted as the academic that everyone hates
Politics is his future. He could be Britain’s Bardella
"Reformed Conservatives" ?
Something like that? After this debacle they will need a rebrand - seriously. They can’t be the Conservatives any more. That brand is dead
New Conservatives.
But none of the Right Wing politicians at the moment are as popular as Blair. Even your pin-up fantasy Farage is less popular (according to YouGov) than both Starmer and Rayner.
Good article by Ian Leslie this morning. Like Tina Turner the British electorate don’t need another hero. Charismatic politicians having led us into the widely regretted debacles of Iraq and Brexit, this is the age of the non-charismatic politician. One who is happy to get on with the boring business of running a government rather than a beauty parade. Which explains Farage’s unpopularity- along with his authoritarianism. And abolishing the primary piece of sex discrimination legislation doesn’t go down well with at least half the electorate.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
They'll be unpopular very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if govt. debt leads to some form of bail out or restructure in the coming years, either.
The best thing the Tory party can do is build a coherent, principled justification for a smaller state and personal responsibility. Like in Canada it will need to be YIMBY, and promote personal prosperity.
But to do that we need the MPs, who have proved themselves too akin to social democrats, to accept this profoundly Conservative prospectus. This means fewer wets.
I'm not sure this will happen in quite the way some suggest, as it's a similar argument to the usually wrong one that an election would be "a good election to lose" due to the problems in the government's in-tray being so large as to make whoever addresses them unpopular.
Labour people thought it in 1979 and 2010 and ended up out of power for a very long time and facing very different countries to the one they left by the time they got back.
Voters tend to grant politicians some grace if they think the country's in a hole and action is needed to fix it. No doubt Labour would face some mid-term blues and controversial decisions, but the Tories will still take a large proportion of the blame and find themselves cast as the party who crashed the car and are now making irresponsible promises to persuade you to let them take the wheel again. Eve
As for a smaller state, the basic structural problem for the Tories is that they have become increasingly reliant on voters who like a large state - even if they're unaware of it. Namely elderly homeowners whose wellbeing is tied to the state being generous towards them even as demographics mean it grows and is put under greater strain.
Meanwhile, other parts of the state that others rely on often feel threadbare or cruel to the point that most serious observers believe taking an axe to them is impossible - a big part of Liz Truss's problem was that markets simply didn't believe the cuts that might be needed to pay for tax cuts were possible/plausible. That's before we get to things like courts, prisons, and immigration enforcement.
Anyone advocating for a smaller state needs to say what goes - chances are it's even more unpopular than tax rises.
It would be almost unheard of for a political party to switch its electoral strategy as completely as the Tories would have to to appeal to the kind of younger, working age voters for whom a smaller state and lower taxes now might be an attractive proposition.
It would require housebuilding, as you say. A mea culpa and apology on Brexit and the culture wars it fuels (yes, the left is far from blameless there - but still - the party of Suella Braverman isn't going to make the kind of inroads it would need to), before they get a hearing from those they'd need support from.
Plus, all the evidence suggests they will do the opposite and become Reform 2.0, with all the wild unrealistic spending promises that entails.
The new Tories - reform Tories - or whatever the new properly right wing party is called - should seriously persuade Matt Goodwin to become a major part of it. He’s very articulate and quite telegenic and he’s smart. He wasted as the academic that everyone hates
Politics is his future. He could be Britain’s Bardella
For some reason a lot of PBers think he's an idiot.
He’s really really not an idiot. One is free to think he is delusional or misguided - or that his polling data is poor - but he’s clearly bright. And his diagnosis of the ills of the right - and the West - is pretty much bang on
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
— 1 in 5 plan on voting tactically “primarily motivated by anti-Tory sentiment”
— that’s up from 14% in 2019 and double 2010
— 1 in 3 Lib Dem voters say they’re voting tactically
I still think the Lib Dem surge is being massively underestimated and think the bets on them forming the opposition are big value.
Do we know if any of the MRPs are accounting for tactical voting on this kind of scale?
Older PB'ers will remember talk of David Steele's LIb/SDP `surge' that was promised so often but never materialised.....I wont hold my breath, I dont sense the party is either
We´d also remember that his names is spelled Steel though.
The Liberal Democrats are targeting very tightly, but in the face of Tory collapse there is some scope to expand beyond the core targets, especially since the Tories do not seem to have enough resources to deploy in a lot of their own seats. Nevertheless, though, when the overall poll number is still only in the low/mid teens, it does not make sense to shoot for the stars but then miss the moon. To go from 15 MPs to 60+ in a single step would still be an astonishing achievement. We will see if the polls crystallise for the Lib Dems in the coming week, but in any event FPTP is being systematically discredited in the eyes of a growing majority.
Fwiw, Cicero, I think you are in with a squeak in Tewkesbury. It is a good example though of a constituency Party that has to do it unaided because of the necessity of winning Cheltenham (likely) and South Cotswold (tricky but promising). Tewkes would be the icing on the Cotswold cake but if it's a near miss (which is what I think it will be) that is no disaster.
I am begging Tories, please don't copy 2019 Labour and tell the voters they are wrong. It's really not what you want to do.
To be fair, if Starmer gets election based on a platform of staying out of the single market, cutting immigration, and being tougher on crime, the Tories will be able to say that they won the argument. They just weren't seen as credible people to deliver it.
And, Starmer either delivers on it, and better than the Tories did, or his vote collapses in 5 years time too.
This isn't a game.
According to polling of Labour voters their main priorities are healthcare, housing, and the economy, so that's where he needs to deliver.
Still, cutting immigration won't be hard. That's been neatly set up for any party with the recent record numbers.
Sunak's most recent measures will probably take effect within 12-18 months, so Starmer will be lucky there too.
He'll have a big problems with the boats though. My guess is the smugglers test his resolve as they'll assume a Labour government will be "softer".
Agree that immigration is coming down whatever happens with changes already in the pipeline, and I suspect that was why Labour were happy to take an easy win by committing to it.
The boats will be harder, although it's still relatively small numbers, and there are probably easier ways to solve it than totally smashing the gangs. I suspect a few slightly easier routes, quicker decisions and quicker returns, plus offshore processing etc., might make it less appealing. The numbers involved are tiny compared to current immigration figures, so being a little more relaxed about it all might be the easiest plan.
But even if they fail, it's not an issue that seems to significantly bother most Labour voters. If a few tens of thousands of people arriving by boats, who will likely never impact on your life, is one of your major concerns, you're probably not voting Labour whatever happens.
The new Tories - reform Tories - or whatever the new properly right wing party is called - should seriously persuade Matt Goodwin to become a major part of it. He’s very articulate and quite telegenic and he’s smart. He wasted as the academic that everyone hates
Politics is his future. He could be Britain’s Bardella
I recall someone or other on here touting Darren ‘craftywank’ Grimes as the fresh, articulate, telegenic, smart face of the right after his cosy chat with David Starkey. Worked out well.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
They'll be unpopular very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if govt. debt leads to some form of bail out or restructure in the coming years, either.
The best thing the Tory party can do is build a coherent, principled justification for a smaller state and personal responsibility. Like in Canada it will need to be YIMBY, and promote personal prosperity.
But to do that we need the MPs, who have proved themselves too akin to social democrats, to accept this profoundly Conservative prospectus. This means fewer wets.
I'm not sure this will happen in quite the way some suggest, as it's a similar argument to the usually wrong one that an election would be "a good election to lose" due to the problems in the government's in-tray being so large as to make whoever addresses them unpopular.
Labour people thought it in 1979 and 2010 and ended up out of power for a very long time and facing very different countries to the one they left by the time they got back.
Voters tend to grant politicians some grace if they think the country's in a hole and action is needed to fix it. No doubt Labour would face some mid-term blues and controversial decisions, but the Tories will still take a large proportion of the blame and find themselves cast as the party who crashed the car and are now making irresponsible promises to persuade you to let them take the wheel again. Eve
As for a smaller state, the basic structural problem for the Tories is that they have become increasingly reliant on voters who like a large state - even if they're unaware of it. Namely elderly homeowners whose wellbeing is tied to the state being generous towards them even as demographics mean it grows and is put under greater strain.
Meanwhile, other parts of the state that others rely on often feel threadbare or cruel to the point that most serious observers believe taking an axe to them is impossible - a big part of Liz Truss's problem was that markets simply didn't believe the cuts that might be needed to pay for tax cuts were possible/plausible. That's before we get to things like courts, prisons, and immigration enforcement.
Anyone advocating for a smaller state needs to say what goes - chances are it's even more unpopular than tax rises.
It would be almost unheard of for a political party to switch its electoral strategy as completely as the Tories would have to to appeal to the kind of younger, working age voters for whom a smaller state and lower taxes now might be an attractive proposition.
It would require housebuilding, as you say. A mea culpa and apology on Brexit and the culture wars it fuels (yes, the left is far from blameless there - but still - the party of Suella Braverman isn't going to make the kind of inroads it would need to), before they get a hearing from those they'd need support from.
Plus, all the evidence suggests they will do the opposite and become Reform 2.0, with all the wild unrealistic spending promises that entails.
Other than the brexit bit, that's very insightful
It completely ignores the technological changes coming our way
"Reform UK has dropped three of its candidates following reports they had made offensive comments, a spokesperson has confirmed.
However, Edward Oakenfull, who is standing in Derbyshire Dales; Robert Lomas, a candidate in Barnsley North, and Leslie Lilley, standing in Southend East and Rochford, will still appear on the ballot paper as Reform candidates as it is too late for them to be removed.
It comes after leader Nigel Farage disowned the candidates during an appearance on BBC Question Time on Friday evening, when their remarks were put to him.
Mr Farage told the programme: "I want nothing to do with them.""
It's probably too late now, but if Sunak pledged to ban Glastonbury from 2025 he might win back quite a few votes from the miserable old fuckers on here and elsewhere.
The new Tories - reform Tories - or whatever the new properly right wing party is called - should seriously persuade Matt Goodwin to become a major part of it. He’s very articulate and quite telegenic and he’s smart. He wasted as the academic that everyone hates
Politics is his future. He could be Britain’s Bardella
"Reformed Conservatives" ?
Something like that? After this debacle they will need a rebrand - seriously. They can’t be the Conservatives any more. That brand is dead
The brand name is fine. They are hard to invent successfully. What is dead for now is any sort of entire and plausible worldview and policy which is truly conservative. I think it may be something Goodwin is struggling towards, and it would be good if he gets there. But his current support for Reform is a pure cul de sac.
The philosophical problem with Reform is that its policies are state managed, high expenditure, welfarism social democracy + nationalism and the delusion that this can be provided for the members of Clacton bowls club but not for the wrong sort.
They can’t be the Conservatives any more. That brand is dead
The Conservative and Unionist brand would be fine if they kick out the Kippers and anybody that thought BoZo was a good idea
We might be just a couple of weeks away from Nigel Farage as Leader Of The Opposition!
No
The worst possible scenario for Farridge is he gets elected along with half a dozen nutters, and he spends the next 5 years apologising for the swivel-eyed loons and closet racists
The new Tories - reform Tories - or whatever the new properly right wing party is called - should seriously persuade Matt Goodwin to become a major part of it. He’s very articulate and quite telegenic and he’s smart. He wasted as the academic that everyone hates
Politics is his future. He could be Britain’s Bardella
I recall someone or other on here touting Darren ‘craftywank’ Grimes as the fresh, articulate, telegenic, smart face of the right after his cosy chat with David Starkey. Worked out well.
Did they?? That certainly wasn’t me. I quite like Grimes - and he’s a brave figure on the right, gay and defiant - a weird mirror image of Owen Jones (who I also like: I admire defiant articulate people) - but he’s never gonna be “the face of a political movement” if that’s what you mean
However Goodwin - yes maybe. Has a certain gravitas. However he might be crap in hustings or in tough interviews - it would be good to see him tested as an experiment
"Under law, neither man’s age would allow him to pilot a commercial airliner. Or serve in command as a military officer. Or be appointed as an appellate judge in most U.S. states. And in Trump’s case, because of his felony conviction, he is not allowed to own a gun.
Both men are, however, still eligible to control the deadliest weapon arsenal known to man."
NY Times
It's already documented that he kept one of his guns after his conviction, aiui.
It's probably too late now, but if Sunak pledged to ban Glastonbury from 2025 he might win back quite a few votes from the miserable old fuckers on here and elsewhere.
Oh id be all in. Esprcially if he also promised to boot Taylor Swift up the arse on live TV
I’ve actually been considering it for a while but sheer laziness and inertia have restrained me. But this guy making $150,000 a year doing three-four articles a month. wtf. He’s good at his job and he has a niche but I’ve got a feeling I could do as well as that - if I ever get off my fat butt
Thru accident, I built up a statistical career by doing bits and bobs, and after about a decade it's amounted to a proper thing: I wouldn't have my present job without it. So perhaps I can advise.
Don't start off doing three-four articles a month. Do about one every three months, or one every six. Don't expect to be paid anything but pennies for a couple of years, and get into a rhythm. Interact with your fans. Slowly modify your articles to appeal both in numbers and structure. Slowly increase your frequency. After about two-five years you will get there.
Plus, you are now in the later years of your life. This will give you something to do as the years wear away and keep you in the best mental condition for your age.
I am begging Tories, please don't copy 2019 Labour and tell the voters they are wrong. It's really not what you want to do.
To be fair, if Starmer gets election based on a platform of staying out of the single market, cutting immigration, and being tougher on crime, the Tories will be able to say that they won the argument. They just weren't seen as credible people to deliver it.
And, Starmer either delivers on it, and better than the Tories did, or his vote collapses in 5 years time too.
This isn't a game.
According to polling of Labour voters their main priorities are healthcare, housing, and the economy, so that's where he needs to deliver.
Still, cutting immigration won't be hard. That's been neatly set up for any party with the recent record numbers.
Sunak's most recent measures will probably take effect within 12-18 months, so Starmer will be lucky there too.
He'll have a big problems with the boats though. My guess is the smugglers test his resolve as they'll assume a Labour government will be "softer".
Agree that immigration is coming down whatever happens with changes already in the pipeline, and I suspect that was why Labour were happy to take an easy win by committing to it.
The boats will be harder, although it's still relatively small numbers, and there are probably easier ways to solve it than totally smashing the gangs. I suspect a few slightly easier routes, quicker decisions and quicker returns, plus offshore processing etc., might make it less appealing. The numbers involved are tiny compared to current immigration figures, so being a little more relaxed about it all might be the easiest plan.
But even if they fail, it's not an issue that seems to significantly bother most Labour voters. If a few tens of thousands of people arriving by boats, who will likely never impact on your life, is one of your major concerns, you're probably not voting Labour whatever happens.
It's probably too late now, but if Sunak pledged to ban Glastonbury from 2025 he might win back quite a few votes from the miserable old fuckers on here and elsewhere.
I'm perfectly cool with Glasto, just if they didn't pee all over the eels.
The 27 different streaming services won't last. They will consolidate.
Maybe I was being a bit OTT with the all writing ever. I mean more it becomes a central go to hub for a lot of different areas. The Readly site appears to be more we have done a deal with the couple of big magazine publishers to show their content digitally. Which yes is what Spotify does, but it also does more.
I still think Amazon or Apple will end up buying Spotify at some point.
Spotify have a big problem. The record companies have now decided that streaming is the only game in town, and willing to licence their catalogues to any service who can pay. So there is no exclusivity, no massive individual reason to choose Spotify over Apple Music.
That is why they went for the exclusive podcast route, but it seems to have failed.
As a result all the music streaming services are basically the same price, same catalogue. The problem for Spotify is an Apple or Amazon can wait them out. Spotify had first mover advantage, but Apple can slow draw customers away with their bundled offers and they don't need to make money on music streaming anytime soon.
I've just read an article saying that cassette tapes are making a comeback.
Tape backups for data are still absolutely huge market.
I once pulled data off the cache to tape backups to replace data that was accidentally deleted by a colleague, then put the schema on it, a few days before the cache would have been cleared. You'd think I'd get congrats? I got the blame because the colleague was on holiday. I left and got a nice pay rise
The new Tories - reform Tories - or whatever the new properly right wing party is called - should seriously persuade Matt Goodwin to become a major part of it. He’s very articulate and quite telegenic and he’s smart. He wasted as the academic that everyone hates
Politics is his future. He could be Britain’s Bardella
For some reason a lot of PBers think he's an idiot.
He’s really really not an idiot. One is free to think he is delusional or misguided - or that his polling data is poor - but he’s clearly bright. And his diagnosis of the ills of the right - and the West - is pretty much bang on
Diagnosing ills is not hard. It is hard sets of policies and goals, coherent with an underlying political philosophy, that are both feasible targets from where we are now and can win the votes that is the challenge. Goodwin is well placed to have a try. Understanding populism is a good start. Understanding why populism's problem is that it applies simple solutions to complex problems is the next stage. Saying what to do which is both popular, coherent and will work comes after that.
I wish him well. But at the moment he has gone seriously wrong.
“Been looking at the Glastonbury crowds on the TV and in the papers. Yet to see a single black person. Does this white intensely middle-class non-event operate an apartheid system? Or are people of colour just denied entry?”
Obviously, no. Either would be illegal. So the black people are absent of their own volition, when they ought in TVKev's view to be present. So I think he is telling us that black people are stupid or at least not as clever as TVKev.
I’ve actually been considering it for a while but sheer laziness and inertia have restrained me. But this guy making $150,000 a year doing three-four articles a month. wtf. He’s good at his job and he has a niche but I’ve got a feeling I could do as well as that - if I ever get off my fat butt
Thru accident, I built up a statistical career by doing bits and bobs, and after about a decade it's amounted to a proper thing: I wouldn't have my present job without it. So perhaps I can advise.
Don't start off doing three-four articles a month. Do about one every three months, or one every six. Don't expect to be paid anything but pennies for a couple of years, and get into a rhythm. Interact with your fans. Slowly modify your articles to appeal both in numbers and structure. Slowly increase your frequency. After about two-five years you will get there.
Plus, you are now in the later years of your life. This will give you something to do as the years wear away and keep you in the best mental condition for your age.
lol. Thanks but no
As you correctly point out I am now quite advanced in years. Which is fine. Ish. But I don’t have the time to wank about “building up fans for eight years”
All or nothing. Besides all I have to do is divert the commentary I do on here and on social media which I give away for free. Convert that into more structured articles. Bingo
They take me about half an hour to write. I have that kind of brain. I have an idea for an article roughly every 23 minutes. Seriously
Like I could write an article right now on these subjects which are obsessing me this moment
1. Why are e-bikes so pleasing - make them the future of travel! 2. Why is the food in Moldova and Ukraine better than France - wtf is happening there 3. Gay people as political pioneers 4. Me and why I’m amazing 5. Why I just took tramadol again 6. Why you should take tramadol 7. Oysters
“Been looking at the Glastonbury crowds on the TV and in the papers. Yet to see a single black person. Does this white intensely middle-class non-event operate an apartheid system? Or are people of colour just denied entry?”
Obviously, no. Either would be illegal. So the black people are absent of their own volition, when they ought in TVKev's view to be present. So I think he is telling us that black people are stupid or at least not as clever as TVKev.
I hope he writes a guardian think piece on “why Glasto is racist” then we can watch @heathener have conniptions
1. Introduce a flat tax to replace ALL current taxes (NI/VAT/CGT/Council Tax/ULEZ/fuel tax/ved/“apprenticeship levy”/sugar tax/sin taxes, the lot). Save BILLIONS on bureaucracy and let people. See how much tax they are really paying !
2 Privatise the BBC, channel 4, post office, Transport for London, national rail, public owned museums/galleries/british library, libraries etc. Not what the govt should be doing !
3. Policy of gov outsourcing as much ans possible and reform to ensure bidding and competition and more efficient quicker procurement. Esp councils !!
4. Long term goal to remove ALL state subsidies on transport, higher education, Hollywood “tax credits” and similar bs.
5. Reform planning and building regulations to remove almost all restrictions. Remove listed buildings, “area of natural beauty”, grrenbelt and similar bs to allow easier demolition and building. Have a decade of national renewal ! New mass housing, wind farms, building new transport eithout govt getting in the way
6. Bonfire of red tape. Reform licensing housing and street trading laws. Look at “all will” employment for both employees and employers to improve job flexibility by making it easier to hire and move jobs to create growth
I’ve actually been considering it for a while but sheer laziness and inertia have restrained me. But this guy making $150,000 a year doing three-four articles a month. wtf. He’s good at his job and he has a niche but I’ve got a feeling I could do as well as that - if I ever get off my fat butt
Thru accident, I built up a statistical career by doing bits and bobs, and after about a decade it's amounted to a proper thing: I wouldn't have my present job without it. So perhaps I can advise.
Don't start off doing three-four articles a month. Do about one every three months, or one every six. Don't expect to be paid anything but pennies for a couple of years, and get into a rhythm. Interact with your fans. Slowly modify your articles to appeal both in numbers and structure. Slowly increase your frequency. After about two-five years you will get there.
Plus, you are now in the later years of your life. This will give you something to do as the years wear away and keep you in the best mental condition for your age.
lol. Thanks but no
As you correctly point out I am now quite advanced in years. Which is fine. Ish. But I don’t have the time to wank about “building up fans for eight years”
All or nothing. Besides all I have to do is divert the commentary I do on here and on social media which I give away for free. Convert that into more structured articles. Bingo
They take me about half an hour to write. I have that kind of brain. I have an idea for an article roughly every 23 minutes. Seriously
Like I could write an article right now on these subjects which are obsessing me this moment
1. Why are e-bikes so pleasing - make them the future of travel! 2. Why is the food in Moldova and Ukraine better than France - wtf is happening there 3. Gay people as political pioneers 4. Me and why I’m amazing 5. Why I just took tramadol again 6. Why you should take tramadol 7. Oysters
Use this site for ideas.
Lots of PBers have interesting ideas but don't have the time, ability or inclination to write articles themselves.
"Reform UK has dropped three of its candidates following reports they had made offensive comments, a spokesperson has confirmed.
However, Edward Oakenfull, who is standing in Derbyshire Dales; Robert Lomas, a candidate in Barnsley North, and Leslie Lilley, standing in Southend East and Rochford, will still appear on the ballot paper as Reform candidates as it is too late for them to be removed.
It comes after leader Nigel Farage disowned the candidates during an appearance on BBC Question Time on Friday evening, when their remarks were put to him.
Mr Farage told the programme: "I want nothing to do with them.""
Iona Bruce should have read out the other 17 as well.
As a liberal right winger who wants liberal economics and liberal social rights, I always preferred the right wing party in Australia being called Liberals over the Conservatives.
It will be interesting in the extremely unlikely, but not impossible, event that the Liberal Democrats do become the Opposition with plenty of seats in the South.
Do they then oppose Labour from the left, like Charles Kennedy? Or the Orange Book right like Nick Clegg?
If the left, the Conservatives will regain official opposition status the following election. The country doesn't have space for two parties of the left arguing with each other.
If the right, then there's a chance of a future Liberal Democrat government with the Liberals in the UK, like Australia, being the party of the centre right.
Interesting times.
Their instinct, especially from their activists will be to oppose Labour from the left. But like you say, the real opening for the Lib-Dems to once again rise as a potential party of government would be to oppose from the center right as that's where the space will be until the Tories either get their act together or another center right party emerges.
There is a place for a liberal green (teal) political force. That’s the direction I’d like to see the party go in.
There’s also a possibility of a French split: populist right (Reform and Suella-Tories), socialist left (soft left of Labour leftwards), and centrist liberals incorporating the Blairites and Cameronians.
Yellow-and-green give you lime-green or chartreuse. Teal is blue-and-green: Cameron's lot.
Re Yougov, several polls have placed Labour under 40%, recently.
In fact, only 5 of the 25 most recent G.E. polls reported by Wikipedia show Labour as having a support range of 36% - 39%, the remaing 20 polls all show them with a support range of between 40% - 43%.
Labour's support level, based on a weighted average of these 25 polls is 40.8%, a lead of 4.8% over the 36% Labour support as most recently reported by YouGov. Some might consider this as not being particularlty material, but if viewed in terms of the impact on the overall GE result, i.e. 'Baxterised', this translates into a very significant, potentially game-changing number of seats.
Why do they get into such a wankfest over this every year?
The average viewer of a 24 hour news channel couldn't give a feck about a bunch of twats living in squalor for a week, and listening to bands they have never heard of.
Someone, somewhere is having fun. Worse, it’s something I don’t like….
If you want to ban music and dancing - the Rule of The Major Generals is *that* way. Walk about 350 years and you can’t miss it.
The argument is not that Biden HAS dementia - it is that this is a question now, legitimately, being asked. Even by senior Democrats. Does he have dementia? As many on here point out - we cannot be sure. Biden’s case is not helped by all the lies his aides have told - eg trying to smear the special counsel who interviewed Biden and honestly said “he’s a very old man with memory issues, no jury would convict”
The "he's got a cold" lie was particularly egregious and ludicrous. It's like the last days of Chernenko when they were doing his signature with a coal fired mechanical pantagraph.
I was surprised at DJT's restraint in the Debby Ates when it was obvious that JRB was away with the mixer. He could have finished JRB off completely with some withering mockery.
Actually I think Trump got the tactics right. He did have some zinger lines, but if he had gone full on assault on Biden you are in danger of the sympathy vote / also plays into Trump is evil. See how Brown got a bump when the Sun ran the piece about him disrespecting the mother of a killed solider, he was already unpopular, his reaction was poor (typical getting into an argument about not being wrong), but the Sun went OTT.
I agree that Trump played it perfectly. He realised Biden was digging his own grave and just sat back and watched. He did do that one zinger “I’ve no idea what Biden just said, and I don’t think he knows either”
That’s a line that will resonate down the ages as a truly brutal debate blow. Like “I knew President John Kennedy”. Also evidence that Trump still has mojo
The delivery of that line was, accidentally or not, perfect. It was laden with pity and the sort of exasperation you feel when your opposition makes mistakes, you are glad they made them but just want a mercy killing.
He didn’t loudly mock, rub it in, tease. Just sad pity.
It was the most memorable presidential debate I can, er, remember. 98% are entirely forgettable
That one line plus 10 minutes of Biden freezing and babbling. Horrible but compelling: real drama played out live
"There he goes again" from Reagan vs Carter was the most brutal "polite put down" I have seen in a political debate.
Comments
They could end up with several second places behind the Tories. If the Tories stay unpopular and the shine comes off Labour, that combined with further local government gains and greater tactical voting clarity could deliver them a number of seats in 2029.
Britain indicates desire for proper right wing government with huge centre left landslide!
The thing was, I was in pain. It's just that the walking often made little difference to the pain, and the walk improved my mental mood massively. I'd feel like I'd won a battle.
Things that I would abolish/change to cut spending.
1: Abolish Triple Lock (plus). Everyone has the same tax threshold as each other. Pensions to go up by average wages, whether wages be higher or lower than prices everyone's wages go up or down in unison.
2: Abolish planning consent. Let alone one build whatever they want, no questions asked, so long as it is within the legal regulations, wherever they want except for very limited areas (eg AONB).
Everyone also says taxes can't rise so to counterbalance a hefty tax rise for some.
3: Merge Universal Credit (and taper)/pensions, Income Tax, National Insurance and Student Loans/Graduate Tax into a single unified tax and benefit system. Everyone on the same income pays the same rate of tax no matter their ages, employment status, nor how they got their income.
No cliff edges like UC taper, 50k, 100k etc.
The Liberal Democrats are targeting very tightly, but in the face of Tory collapse there is some scope to expand beyond the core targets, especially since the Tories do not seem to have enough resources to deploy in a lot of their own seats. Nevertheless, though, when the overall poll number is still only in the low/mid teens, it does not make sense to shoot for the stars but then miss the moon. To go from 15 MPs to 60+ in a single step would still be an astonishing achievement. We will see if the polls crystallise for the Lib Dems in the coming week, but in any event FPTP is being systematically discredited in the eyes of a growing majority.
Politics is his future. He could be Britain’s Bardella
27% is little more than a quarter, not almost a third.
1970: £1
1971: free
1979: £5
1981: £8
1983: £12
1984: £13
1985: £16
1986: £17
1987: £21
1989: £28
1990: £38
1992: £49
1993: £58
1994: £59
1995: £65
1998: £80
1999: £83
2000: £87
2002: £97
2003: £105
2004: £112
2007: £145
2008: £155
2009: £175
2010: £185
2011: £195
2014: £210
2015: £225
2017: £238
2019: £248
2022: £280
2023: £335
2024: £360
https://www.thepopuphotel.com/how-much-is-a-glastonbury-ticket-the-history-of-glastonbury-pricing/
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/oct/18/glastonbury-2023-ticket-prices
https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/information/tickets/
I can't remember who it was (but I doubt it was you), but that always seemed a really stoopid thing to say.
Now he's got his wish.
And they do all this instead of the vital task of covering world affairs (Sudan is a prime example) with proper coverage and updates.
(When they bother to cover Sudan it's to tell us that being a war victim is deeply unpleasant, which we knew, not to tell us which side is prevailing where, and why, and why which country is arming them).
Grow a massive beard and wear a stripey tee shirt and a red kerchief and live on one of these brilliant islands and drink kir Breton and espresso at 9am, and vote for Breton dynasty the Le Pens every five years
They are Cornish anyway. They are my people
In some ways the other side of the Faragist coin - in taking advantage of disillusionment with the state of the nation by telling their own niche everything they want to hear. Probably not sustainable longer term when they'll have to grow up a bit, rebrand and shake off the cranks - as Reform will too - to grow their vote more permanently and escape their contradictions.
“Been looking at the Glastonbury crowds on the TV and in the papers. Yet to see a single black person. Does this white intensely middle-class non-event operate an apartheid system? Or are people of colour just denied entry?”
https://x.com/tvkev/status/1806248969330151587?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
But none of the Right Wing politicians at the moment are as popular as Blair. Even your pin-up fantasy Farage is less popular (according to YouGov) than both Starmer and Rayner.
Good article by Ian Leslie this morning. Like Tina Turner the British electorate don’t need another hero. Charismatic politicians having led us into the widely regretted debacles of Iraq and Brexit, this is the age of the non-charismatic politician. One who is happy to get on with the boring business of running a government rather than a beauty parade. Which explains Farage’s unpopularity- along with his authoritarianism. And abolishing the primary piece of sex discrimination legislation doesn’t go down well with at least half the electorate.
Kinder, gentler etc etc.
The boats will be harder, although it's still relatively small numbers, and there are probably easier ways to solve it than totally smashing the gangs. I suspect a few slightly easier routes, quicker decisions and quicker returns, plus offshore processing etc., might make it less appealing. The numbers involved are tiny compared to current immigration figures, so being a little more relaxed about it all might be the easiest plan.
But even if they fail, it's not an issue that seems to significantly bother most Labour voters. If a few tens of thousands of people arriving by boats, who will likely never impact on your life, is one of your major concerns, you're probably not voting Labour whatever happens.
Worked out well.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c727xz2kkgjo
"Reform UK has dropped three of its candidates following reports they had made offensive comments, a spokesperson has confirmed.
However, Edward Oakenfull, who is standing in Derbyshire Dales; Robert Lomas, a candidate in Barnsley North, and Leslie Lilley, standing in Southend East and Rochford, will still appear on the ballot paper as Reform candidates as it is too late for them to be removed.
It comes after leader Nigel Farage disowned the candidates during an appearance on BBC Question Time on Friday evening, when their remarks were put to him.
Mr Farage told the programme: "I want nothing to do with them.""
The philosophical problem with Reform is that its policies are state managed, high expenditure, welfarism social democracy + nationalism and the delusion that this can be provided for the members of Clacton bowls club but not for the wrong sort.
The worst possible scenario for Farridge is he gets elected along with half a dozen nutters, and he spends the next 5 years apologising for the swivel-eyed loons and closet racists
However Goodwin - yes maybe. Has a certain gravitas. However he might be crap in hustings or in tough interviews - it would be good to see him tested as an experiment
Don't start off doing three-four articles a month. Do about one every three months, or one every six. Don't expect to be paid anything but pennies for a couple of years, and get into a rhythm. Interact with your fans. Slowly modify your articles to appeal both in numbers and structure. Slowly increase your frequency. After about two-five years you will get there.
Plus, you are now in the later years of your life. This will give you something to do as the years wear away and keep you in the best mental condition for your age.
NEW THREAD
I wish him well. But at the moment he has gone seriously wrong.
As you correctly point out I am now quite advanced in years. Which is fine. Ish. But I don’t have the time to wank about “building up fans for eight years”
All or nothing. Besides all I have to do is divert the commentary I do on here and on social media which I give away for free. Convert that into more structured articles. Bingo
They take me about half an hour to write. I have that kind of brain. I have an idea for an article
roughly every 23 minutes. Seriously
Like I could write an article right now on these subjects which are obsessing me this moment
1. Why are e-bikes so pleasing - make them the future of travel!
2. Why is the food in Moldova and Ukraine better than France - wtf is happening there
3. Gay people as political pioneers
4. Me and why I’m amazing
5. Why I just took tramadol again
6. Why you should take tramadol
7. Oysters
1. Introduce a flat tax to replace ALL current taxes (NI/VAT/CGT/Council Tax/ULEZ/fuel tax/ved/“apprenticeship levy”/sugar tax/sin taxes, the lot). Save BILLIONS on bureaucracy and let people. See how much tax they are really paying !
2 Privatise the BBC, channel 4, post office, Transport for London, national rail, public owned museums/galleries/british library, libraries etc. Not what the govt should be doing !
3. Policy of gov outsourcing as much ans possible and reform to ensure bidding and competition and more efficient quicker procurement. Esp councils !!
4. Long term goal to remove ALL state subsidies on transport, higher education, Hollywood “tax credits” and similar bs.
5. Reform planning and building regulations to remove almost all restrictions. Remove listed buildings, “area of natural beauty”, grrenbelt and similar bs to allow easier demolition and building. Have a decade of national renewal ! New mass housing, wind farms, building new transport eithout govt getting in the way
6. Bonfire of red tape. Reform licensing housing and street trading laws. Look at “all will” employment for both employees and employers to improve job flexibility by making it easier to hire and move jobs to create growth
Prob more but that’s where I’d start
Lots of PBers have interesting ideas but don't have the time, ability or inclination to write articles themselves.
Teal is blue-and-green: Cameron's lot.
Labour's support level, based on a weighted average of these 25 polls is 40.8%, a lead of 4.8% over the 36% Labour support as most recently reported by YouGov. Some might consider this as not being particularlty material, but if viewed in terms of the impact on the overall GE result, i.e. 'Baxterised', this translates into a very significant, potentially game-changing number of seats.
If you want to ban music and dancing - the Rule of The Major Generals is *that* way. Walk about 350 years and you can’t miss it.
Simple really. Like Zathras. Vote for Zathras. But not Zathras. And definitely not for Zathras.