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Dear Prime Minister, I am afraid there is no money – politicalbetting.com
Dear Prime Minister, I am afraid there is no money – politicalbetting.com
graphic by @clara__murray pic.twitter.com/U3dKeS51Ut
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Although the canny among us make most by bucking that. Sometimes.
I do note with joy how tiny the sums raised are here. A candidate running for dog catcher in Palookaville, Idaho needs to raise more.
Democratic politics shouldn't be based around who can raise most from the plutocrats.
Rishi has now taken the gloves off with Reform, too little too late?
Nothing fails like failure, must the corollary.
In the minds of every group or company - “these guys are completely irrelevant now”.
Whether that will do them any good remains to be seen, and its frankly not hopeful, but there is not an obvious shortage of cash.
Have Equity commented or acted on one of their members expressing such views yet?
I would imagine that after that, they are parsing everything through a pile of All The Lawyers.
The Tory campaign is Sunak and...Sunak...looking lost most of the time.
Yougov relies on its panel being so big, and its having so much background data on them, that it factors in the responses from the panellists who actually live in the seat. But even with a giant national panel, they will only have about a hundred people in each seat, giving an MOE of about +/- 10%. Better than nothing, and having people's past voting behaviour helps since a change of vote is an actual swing, rather than just a sampling error, but it's susceptible to both random and systemic error - one example was YouGov suggesting the East Devon Indy was running the Tories close last time.
All of them, I think, factor in actual past election results, which in a sense is 'cheating' by creating a circularity that risks normalcy bias. But clearly it helps with things like sorting Labour from LibDem targets based on campaigning history and local factors, which any demographic model would struggle with. But again there are risks - the North Shropshire issue discussed early this morning probably arises because that MRP has used the last GE results as its 'crib' and ignored the subsequent by-election.
The key is to remember that we're looking (mostly) at a national model, not a seat-by-seat poll - the trouble is that the way the data is presented, with maps and such enticing seat-by-seat data, makes it look like the latter. It would be more honest, if less fun, for them just to present the predicted national seat totals and leave out all the local data behind it. Most of us are clued up on these issues, but I know from comments about my seat in the media and social media that most ordinary folk think these predictions are some sort of local poll.
There's an element of that in the UK. (Yes, Levido, I am looking at you.) If the Conservatives had more money, I suspect they'd be pumping out the same terrible messages, just with more panache and pizzazz. Millions spent on a campaign won't help with their real issues, namely:
1 They have not been a successful government, especially since 2019
2 They are in a closed bubble to such a degree that their interests have decoupled from what the country as a whole is interested in.
My US relatives (New York Democrats, politically active, lawyers and teachers ) used to worry that one of the New Wave Billionaires would set up a party entirely internally funded - and end up directly controlling both houses and the Presidency. I thought the idea that lobbyists were an essential part of democracy an interesting opinion.
Of course Bloomberg blew that possibility up in some style….
I know a Tory staffer who went to the 2008 Dem convention and pointed out a 30 second TV advert in Pennsylvania was roughly the same cost as the entire 2005 UK general election and Pennsylvania wasn't even in the top 10 media markets in America.
There's not much hard evidence of Reform gaining traction, but there's a lot of activity on social media and given the demographics and a candidate whose not a total nutjob, they will probably pull in a decent vote. But there's no ground campaign and I don't think they can win unless there's a further big move to Reform.
All the polls and models point to a Labour win, but I'd still be surprised, particularly given such a poor candidate choice, and therefore the money probably sits on a Tory hold, with a Labour gain in the west if they maintain their poll lead.
I would say the biggest liability is Reach group i.e. Mirror. Mirror is irrelevant, and they bought all those regional newspapers that are failing.
Of course - to reach all voters that ad (and similar ones) will be shown a few hundred times
Plus the national and local emails asking me to do this, that and the other.
It is much easier to just sit back and let Sir Philip shoot himself in the foot.
Now I realise this is a safe seat but candidates get a free mailshot and printing leaflets is cheap so what's going on? Is the next scandal that parties are spending money in one constituency but accounting for it in another, or do they just not care any more in these social media days?
It opens with a big red banner saying Change, Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour Party, so I imagine Labour's marketing is run by Corbynistas or people who know HIGNFY is off the air.
Speaking of which, there is a compilation of HIGNFYs from previous elections at:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tASp2Hd3XVk
The emails we send out at local level are by contrast limited and focused, but they are being drowned out by a sea of national emails. The national ones have become utterly counterproductive and the upshot is that many members just unsubscribe from emails and become impossible to contact easily.
https://www.ideastream.org/community/2021-12-13/mayor-elect-justin-bibb-raised-and-spent-1-6-million-in-cleveland-mayoral-race
This isn't even for a statewide or national office. I've never heard of him and I doubt anyone outside of Cleveland has.
If you want to run for congress, the numbers go up astronomically. Jackie Rosen, senator for Nevada (population 3 million) will easily spend more by November on her campaign than all the UK parties combined:
https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/jacky-rosen/summary?cid=N00038734
It's crazy. The dirty secret is that it keeps TV stations afloat. Why were they so keen to keep Trump viable in 2016? God forbid a forgone conclusion as no-one would donate and the ad dollars would dry up.
Their candidate is also delivering and canvassing in one very small Labour enclave. Why isn't she in Aldershot?
This stuff just muddies the water. Labour are also claiming they are the challengers in Guildford and Woking yet there is no other activity, particularly Guildford. They haven't even sent out an addressed Royal Mail leaflet. Just one per house. Yet they pay for huge ads on buses!
The LDs are flooding these places so why are Labour wasting their resources and potentially cocking up the result.
Though the audience will have been selected to represent different views I doubt they tried to balance their ages so Farages older cohort in all likelihood wouldn't have been able to make it. Not a single clap for him in half an hour
Climate btw being one of the (many) things barely discussed in the UK election. Unless the EW candidates are all demanding public money for restitution works and doing a Cnut?
This is from a guide on online advertising
Buying ads to take over the homepage of MailOnline is the sort of thing you do when:
- Your campaign budget is very healthy indeed
- You're feeling pretty confident about the result
- You want to block your opponents doing it and generally annoy them for the lolz.
Story is at https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1806923920148197409?s=46&t=cxkq0jndvkhIwWZCCEL3QQ
And rumour is they have if all week until Thursday - and that Labour were very surprised the Tories hadn’t booked it
Aunt in Bembridge: Tory
Cousins in Lake x2: ? Labour
SiL St Helens: not sure, Reform possible
Cousins in Wooton x2: Lab/ Green
Would be my guess, Uncle and Aunt nailed on Tory.
Hmm. Not so sure about this one, Survation. (North Shropshire going Tory)
https://x.com/survation/status/1806772335883530501?s=46
We'll be using a different method for final predictions in N Shropshire as the MRP model cannot account for the by-election - is it a General Election to General Election model. NS will be a Lib Dem win.
https://x.com/survation/status/1806742446417629659?s=46
Survation’s final MRP projection will be published on Tuesday, followed by our final call on Wednesday.
Looks like Survation will manually update their projections at the last minute and perhaps they will be a lot worse for the Tories than the 85 seats they gave them yesterday?
F1: once again, I'll probably not watch the sprint race as it's not on at a convenient time. While I loathe the format it's undoubtedly useful for picking out pace, however.
"Roger,
I’m about to take the stage and debate Penny Mordaunt, Nigel Farage and co.
Today of all days, when we released our manifesto, I'm proud to be able to take the stage and represent our party to deliver our message of change. The truth is, everyone I'm up against tonight wants to see Labour falter. But I’m well up for it and honestly, I’m determined to do you proud.
I’m going to give it my all, but it would mean a lot to me to know that you are standing with me. Please will you donate using my link below at: "
Clay cross north, 2017 was the ward
More tanks parked on Tory lawns.
The PLP is going to be very interesting next parliament, much less based around inner cities and their issues, much more on ordinary suburban and rural folk.
It will not be the same Labour Party that we are used to.
Looking outside, it appears that we have one.
After the wettest winter since the 1940s we've had at least ten landslips this year so far, including the major one that has closed, for at least the medium term, the main road into town. Indeed there are four roads into the town, one permanently closed to vehicle traffic after being ruptured by the landslip of 2014, one closed for the foreseeable due to this year's landslip, one closed temporarily while Southern Water repair the cracked sewer due to land movement (re-opening is imminent), and the last remaining access road, really just a country lane, was closed yesterday morning due to an accident involving a van and a motorcycle, such that for several hours you were all cut off.
So of course all the parties are campaigning for funding to protect the town. We already have £millions being spent on coastal defence works and more on a research project hoping to reduce the risk by pumping out groundwater from deep below the town.
I wasn't going to mention the locally permitted fly poster campaign again, as I've covered it a handful of times already, but I notice two giant posters of the Green candidate on a garage from the Community Action Group - not sure if they are election posters officially as no mention of voting, no party designation, non-Green colouring, only the candidate's name and face identify it as election relevant. Possibly in response to Labour buying advertising time on the electronic billboard on the ring road.
For a 1/50 Labour shot, the campaign is a very live one.
Edit - they are also backing Yakoob in Ladywood who is going to run Mahmood close and (I think) Iqbal in Dewsbury who could pull it off but they aren't party members
Galloway needs a seat and 150,000 or so votes to get up the Parliamentary funding ladder
2 from Reform. But they were identical.
1 from Labour.
1 Labour poster seen.
Number of references to the election heard
1 direct. 1 indirect.
Strangely absent from all SLab bumf.
I’m sure they will tomorrow too.
And they don't come for free.