Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang this nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
In ten years time the Tory party will be drinking cheap cider out of a plastic bottle in a paper bag by the war memorial whilst people wander past muttering 'didn't they used to be somebody?'
Indeed, there’s a real possibility of this if they follow these far right ideas. Lunacy.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang this nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
In ten years time the Tory party will be drinking cheap cider out of a plastic bottle in a paper bag by the war memorial whilst people wander past muttering 'didn't they used to be somebody?'
Indeed, there’s a real possibility of this if they follow these far right ideas. Lunacy.
No thing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare The lone and level sands stretch far away.
The Tories are really excelling in their geographical micro targeting during this campaign.
I just got a leaflet through the letter box. The second one. Here in Lewisham North (notional Lab maj 32k).
It warns me about a host of things Starmer will do. The usual mixture of grains of truth and outright lies (“banning flexible work entirely”), with the direct warming being this:
They will introduce a nationwide ULEZ scheme and pay-per-mile road charging, “Just like in Labour London”.
Heaven forbid that we, here in Lewisham North, in the London borough of Lewisham, ULEZ zone since 2019, might be faced with a ULEZ!
Do a shit everywhere, somewhere will be porcelain
But the bizarre thing is the other side has pictures of the Lewisham North Tory candidate. So it’s not a generic national mailing, it’s been adapted for the local area!
Lol, they are special people
It is the worst campaign that has been waged by a major party in the history of British democracy.
Worse than Labour '83?
There are various ways of being awful. What's striking about this campaign is how hopeless it is... There doesn't seem to be any hope, any sense (however deluded) that it might turn out OK for the Conservatives.
The Tories' 2017 campaign was arguable even worse.
They were 20% up in the polls, had a thumping council elections win at the start of the campaign, and yet still only won by a couple of %.
From my own campaigning in that election, whatever you think of the young Momentum members - they certainly didn't do hopelessness.
The Tories are really excelling in their geographical micro targeting during this campaign.
I just got a leaflet through the letter box. The second one. Here in Lewisham North (notional Lab maj 32k).
It warns me about a host of things Starmer will do. The usual mixture of grains of truth and outright lies (“banning flexible work entirely”), with the direct warming being this:
They will introduce a nationwide ULEZ scheme and pay-per-mile road charging, “Just like in Labour London”.
Heaven forbid that we, here in Lewisham North, in the London borough of Lewisham, ULEZ zone since 2019, might be faced with a ULEZ!
Do a shit everywhere, somewhere will be porcelain
But the bizarre thing is the other side has pictures of the Lewisham North Tory candidate. So it’s not a generic national mailing, it’s been adapted for the local area!
Lol, they are special people
It is the worst campaign that has been waged by a major party in the history of British democracy.
Worse than Labour '83?
There are various ways of being awful. What's striking about this campaign is how hopeless it is... There doesn't seem to be any hope, any sense (however deluded) that it might turn out OK for the Conservatives.
The Tories' 2017 campaign was arguable even worse.
They were 20% up in the polls, had a thumping council elections win at the start of the campaign, and yet still only won by a couple of %.
From my own campaigning in that election, whatever you think of the young Momentum members - they certainly didn't do hopelessness.
2017 was taking the electorate for fools 2024 is incompetence
The Tories are really excelling in their geographical micro targeting during this campaign.
I just got a leaflet through the letter box. The second one. Here in Lewisham North (notional Lab maj 32k).
It warns me about a host of things Starmer will do. The usual mixture of grains of truth and outright lies (“banning flexible work entirely”), with the direct warming being this:
They will introduce a nationwide ULEZ scheme and pay-per-mile road charging, “Just like in Labour London”.
Heaven forbid that we, here in Lewisham North, in the London borough of Lewisham, ULEZ zone since 2019, might be faced with a ULEZ!
Do a shit everywhere, somewhere will be porcelain
But the bizarre thing is the other side has pictures of the Lewisham North Tory candidate. So it’s not a generic national mailing, it’s been adapted for the local area!
Lol, they are special people
It is the worst campaign that has been waged by a major party in the history of British democracy.
Worse than Labour '83?
There are various ways of being awful. What's striking about this campaign is how hopeless it is... There doesn't seem to be any hope, any sense (however deluded) that it might turn out OK for the Conservatives.
Much worse. I guess Labour in 1931 might have been more hopeless.
The problem is the Conservatives have nothing to fight on. They’ve had three terrible Prime Ministers, since 2019. Their administration has been the most venial in modern history.
A big debate on Twitter - often amongst Democrats - about Biden’s alleged dementia. As they are discussing it - and using the D word - surely we can
Lots of them are desperate for him to step aside. One argument they are making is that dementia is not just about mumbling and slowing, which can indeed be handled by good advisors taking over most tasks. Some dementias turn you paranoid, angry, aggressive - they can make you hallucinate
Someone in that state simply cannot be POTUS. Not anywhere near it. Logically, Biden either has to prove he’s not got dementia or he has to go. If he doesn’t do either of these he is absolutely going to lose as Americans absorb this logic
But Biden has not shown any of those symptoms.
Trump however...
(No doubt something is wrong with Biden but there are plenty of other options. My partner reckons she knows what it is, and she works in old age psych)
So what is it?
Parkinson's (but with no tremor), but they aren't giving him the full whack of medication because the side effects would be too obvious. Would explain the on/off days.
That's an interesting theory.
It raises the equation of how they spin the next off day that he has. 'A cold' doesn't really work.
I've been corrected - if Parkinson's, the medication gives you on/off hours.
So that would mean many more "off" hours during the election campaign. It does all feel a bit desperate tbh. Time for an Address to the Nation. We could even provide a diplomatic carrot and offer a holiday at Balmoral if he goes soon.
"if Parkinson's, the medication gives you on/off hours."
It varies from person to person to be honest.
But if he does have PD and the Dems are hiding this and this is later found out during the campaign then Trump can start loading his removal van with the gold golf clubs or whatever and head straight to the WH.
Later stages of PD can often include hallucinations, wild delusions and major memory issues.
Yes. Look at that man with wild delusions, paranoia, and total loss of memory, plus insane hallucinations! He’s the ideal person to have control over America’s nukes!
Yes, that's a good summary of part of the case against Trump.
But it doesn't solve the Biden conundrum.
Immensely droll but minimising Biden's issues is bad for Biden, bad for Democrats, bad for democrats and bad for the world.
Who is creating these for the Tories? Certainly nobody with any brains.
Why are they determined to humanise her as much as possible? And they managed to make Brown look like a lovely chap.
The Tory social media campaign this time has been awful. Isaac "I don't know what I am doing" Levido has a lot to answer for. Labour on the other hand has probably run the best digital campaign I've seen, outclassing 2017.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang this nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
In ten years time the Tory party will be drinking cheap cider out of a plastic bottle in a paper bag by the war memorial whilst people wander past muttering 'didn't they used to be somebody?'
Indeed, there’s a real possibility of this if they follow these far right ideas. Lunacy.
They'd be a hell of a lot of beggars and people literally dying in the street if these policies were followed.
Who is creating these for the Tories? Certainly nobody with any brains.
They have still said nothing at all about Farage, almost every post mentions Labour.
I get the feeling they mapped out some rough ideas for the campaign ages ago and Sunak early election means they just deployed what they had.
It reminds me of the Thick of It, where they have stupid policies that they have come up with and they get in a tight spot and they blurt them out, wooden toys.....
Ever been to the racetrack there, Heathy? It's one of my favorite. Real good test for horses that might go on to run at the premier tracks.
I’ve been there a number of times Peter although strangely not to see a race! I seem to be following race tracks around though as I was at Sandown Park last week (White Company sale). They had a number of horse fatalities at Newton Abbot this week
I’m just heading back up to Surrey after a lovely week in the SW. I’ve no idea what will happen in Newton Abbot Constituency tbh, so I suspect a Cons HOLD!
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
They'll be unpopular very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if govt. debt leads to some form of bail out or restructure in the coming years, either.
The best thing the Tory party can do is build a coherent, principled justification for a smaller state and personal responsibility. Like in Canada it will need to be YIMBY, and promote personal prosperity.
But to do that we need the MPs, who have proved themselves too akin to social democrats, to accept this profoundly Conservative prospectus. This means fewer wets.
The Tories are really excelling in their geographical micro targeting during this campaign.
I just got a leaflet through the letter box. The second one. Here in Lewisham North (notional Lab maj 32k).
It warns me about a host of things Starmer will do. The usual mixture of grains of truth and outright lies (“banning flexible work entirely”), with the direst warning being this:
They will introduce a nationwide ULEZ scheme and pay-per-mile road charging, “Just like in Labour London”.
Heaven forbid that we, here in Lewisham North, in the London borough of Lewisham, ULEZ zone since 2019, might be faced with a ULEZ!
Are they still doing ULEZ? They've lost the argument.
ULEZ is still the best thing for the Tories to campaign on in suburban England, imo. I'm surprised they haven't done more with it.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
They'll be unpopular very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if govt. debt leads to some form of bail out or restructure in the coming years, either.
The best thing the Tory party can do is build a coherent, principled justification for a smaller state and personal responsibility. Like in Canada it will need to be YIMBY, and promote personal prosperity.
But to do that we need the MPs, who have proved themselves too akin to social democrats, to accept this profoundly Conservative prospectus. This means fewer wets.
Good luck building a smaller state with older population, especially when in 20 years time that aging population is hitting retirement while still renting their home...
It means you will be targetting a very small target audience, not one that will get you a majority.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
They'll be unpopular very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if govt. debt leads to some form of bail out or restructure in the coming years, either.
The best thing the Tory party can do is build a coherent, principled justification for a smaller state and personal responsibility. Like in Canada it will need to be YIMBY, and promote personal prosperity.
But to do that we need the MPs, who have proved themselves too akin to social democrats, to accept this profoundly Conservative prospectus. This means fewer wets.
The sort of Tory Party you are describing certainly has a far better chance of power than the NIMBY, grey-vote seeking one.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
They'll be unpopular very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if govt. debt leads to some form of bail out or restructure in the coming years, either.
The best thing the Tory party can do is build a coherent, principled justification for a smaller state and personal responsibility. Like in Canada it will need to be YIMBY, and promote personal prosperity.
But to do that we need the MPs, who have proved themselves too akin to social democrats, to accept this profoundly Conservative prospectus. This means fewer wets.
Good luck building a smaller state with older population, especially when in 20 years time that aging population is hitting retirement while still renting their home...
It means you will be targetting a very small target audience, not one that will get you a majority.
Which is why building millions of houses is the answer.
You don't need to end up an Earl to understand this, but it evidently helps - good old Supermac!
So let’s just say I’m wrong. Biden should stay in. What is the plan to win this thing? Do we just stay the course? How do we convince voters that he is not too old to serve?
It’s entirely possible my analysis is wrong, but I really need an answer to this.
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
The Tories are really excelling in their geographical micro targeting during this campaign.
I just got a leaflet through the letter box. The second one. Here in Lewisham North (notional Lab maj 32k).
It warns me about a host of things Starmer will do. The usual mixture of grains of truth and outright lies (“banning flexible work entirely”), with the direst warning being this:
They will introduce a nationwide ULEZ scheme and pay-per-mile road charging, “Just like in Labour London”.
Heaven forbid that we, here in Lewisham North, in the London borough of Lewisham, ULEZ zone since 2019, might be faced with a ULEZ!
On the other hand, as I walked out of Peckham Rye station yesterday, campaigners were handing out anti-Reform leaflets. I thought - this is a waste of time, no-one around here is going to vote for them anyway. You need to be leafleting elsewhere.
It's not about political effectiveness it's about signalling to their mates on social media that they care about and fight the right things.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
I'm lending my vote to Labour this time, specifically because they're promising planning reform and to me that is the number one most important issue in this country which I've consistently argued for years.
Principles over party loyalty.
If the Tories want my vote back, they need to win it back. They can't treat it for granted.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
They'll be unpopular very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if govt. debt leads to some form of bail out or restructure in the coming years, either.
The best thing the Tory party can do is build a coherent, principled justification for a smaller state and personal responsibility. Like in Canada it will need to be YIMBY, and promote personal prosperity.
But to do that we need the MPs, who have proved themselves too akin to social democrats, to accept this profoundly Conservative prospectus. This means fewer wets.
Good luck building a smaller state with older population, especially when in 20 years time that aging population is hitting retirement while still renting their home...
It means you will be targetting a very small target audience, not one that will get you a majority.
Which is why building millions of houses is the answer.
You don't need to end up an Earl to understand this, but it evidently helps - good old Supermac!
Who is actually going to build these houses?
In terms of the necessary trained, skilled, people,
Especially with all the complex green building regulations surrounding new houses and the fact that experienced builders are cutting back hours and retiring early because the high income taxes and allowance withdrawals mean its not worth it.
Doesn't matter how much labour reform planning or throw money at it. They aint getting built.
The future is sweating of existing assets, as with any highly regulated communist state. Expect more people per dwelling and far more houses converted to hmos (predominantly by Rachmanite cowboys as regulations mean its not worth the hassle of bothering and not economic for anyone who follows them)
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
— 1 in 5 plan on voting tactically “primarily motivated by anti-Tory sentiment”
— that’s up from 14% in 2019 and double 2010
— 1 in 3 Lib Dem voters say they’re voting tactically
I still think the Lib Dem surge is being massively underestimated and think the bets on them forming the opposition are big value.
Do we know if any of the MRPs are accounting for tactical voting on this kind of scale?
MRPs are based on local variation - that falls apart if 30% of the constituency Labour vote switches to Lib Dems.
It's basically the by-election story of who is in second place, once people know that everyone switches to that option. If the Lib Dems / Labour have done that successfully there are probably few safe Home County Tory seats...
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
— 1 in 5 plan on voting tactically “primarily motivated by anti-Tory sentiment”
— that’s up from 14% in 2019 and double 2010
— 1 in 3 Lib Dem voters say they’re voting tactically
I still think the Lib Dem surge is being massively underestimated and think the bets on them forming the opposition are big value.
Do we know if any of the MRPs are accounting for tactical voting on this kind of scale?
Older PB'ers will remember talk of David Steele's LIb/SDP `surge' that was promised so often but never materialised.....I wont hold my breath, I dont sense the party is either
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
— 1 in 5 plan on voting tactically “primarily motivated by anti-Tory sentiment”
— that’s up from 14% in 2019 and double 2010
— 1 in 3 Lib Dem voters say they’re voting tactically
I still think the Lib Dem surge is being massively underestimated and think the bets on them forming the opposition are big value.
Do we know if any of the MRPs are accounting for tactical voting on this kind of scale?
Older PB'ers will remember talk of David Steele's LIb/SDP `surge' that was promised so often but never materialised.....I wont hold my breath, I dont sense the party is either
LDs getting 30-40 seats will be a real achievement. My gut feeling is that if you offered that today to Davey he'd probably take it?
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
So let’s just say I’m wrong. Biden should stay in. What is the plan to win this thing? Do we just stay the course? How do we convince voters that he is not too old to serve?
It’s entirely possible my analysis is wrong, but I really need an answer to this.
It is a bit like that joke about asking for directions, and being told don't start from here. None of the paths whether he stays or goes look enticing.
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
— 1 in 5 plan on voting tactically “primarily motivated by anti-Tory sentiment”
— that’s up from 14% in 2019 and double 2010
— 1 in 3 Lib Dem voters say they’re voting tactically
I still think the Lib Dem surge is being massively underestimated and think the bets on them forming the opposition are big value.
Do we know if any of the MRPs are accounting for tactical voting on this kind of scale?
Older PB'ers will remember talk of David Steele's LIb/SDP `surge' that was promised so often but never materialised.....I wont hold my breath, I dont sense the party is either
We’re certainly not. Overinflated expectations have come crashing down around us so many times.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
— 1 in 5 plan on voting tactically “primarily motivated by anti-Tory sentiment”
— that’s up from 14% in 2019 and double 2010
— 1 in 3 Lib Dem voters say they’re voting tactically
I still think the Lib Dem surge is being massively underestimated and think the bets on them forming the opposition are big value.
Do we know if any of the MRPs are accounting for tactical voting on this kind of scale?
Older PB'ers will remember talk of David Steele's LIb/SDP `surge' that was promised so often but never materialised.....I wont hold my breath, I dont sense the party is either
LDs getting 30-40 seats will be a real achievement. My gut feeling is that if you offered that today to Davey he'd probably take it?
Much depends whether polls showing the Conservatives on 25% or so are correct, or those showing them under 20%.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
A big debate on Twitter - often amongst Democrats - about Biden’s alleged dementia. As they are discussing it - and using the D word - surely we can
Lots of them are desperate for him to step aside. One argument they are making is that dementia is not just about mumbling and slowing, which can indeed be handled by good advisors taking over most tasks. Some dementias turn you paranoid, angry, aggressive - they can make you hallucinate
Someone in that state simply cannot be POTUS. Not anywhere near it. Logically, Biden either has to prove he’s not got dementia or he has to go. If he doesn’t do either of these he is absolutely going to lose as Americans absorb this logic
But Biden has not shown any of those symptoms.
Trump however...
(No doubt something is wrong with Biden but there are plenty of other options. My partner reckons she knows what it is, and she works in old age psych)
So what is it?
Parkinson's (but with no tremor), but they aren't giving him the full whack of medication because the side effects would be too obvious. Would explain the on/off days.
That's an interesting theory.
It raises the equation of how they spin the next off day that he has. 'A cold' doesn't really work.
I've been corrected - if Parkinson's, the medication gives you on/off hours.
So that would mean many more "off" hours during the election campaign. It does all feel a bit desperate tbh. Time for an Address to the Nation. We could even provide a diplomatic carrot and offer a holiday at Balmoral if he goes soon.
"if Parkinson's, the medication gives you on/off hours."
It varies from person to person to be honest.
But if he does have PD and the Dems are hiding this and this is later found out during the campaign then Trump can start loading his removal van with the gold golf clubs or whatever and head straight to the WH.
Later stages of PD can often include hallucinations, wild delusions and major memory issues.
Yes. Look at that man with wild delusions, paranoia, and total loss of memory, plus insane hallucinations! He’s the ideal person to have control over America’s nukes!
Yes, that's a good summary of part of the case against Trump.
But it doesn't solve the Biden conundrum.
Immensely droll but minimising Biden's issues is bad for Biden, bad for Democrats, bad for democrats and bad for the world.
Who’s minimising it ? I’ve made my views pretty clear.
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
They'll be unpopular very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if govt. debt leads to some form of bail out or restructure in the coming years, either.
The best thing the Tory party can do is build a coherent, principled justification for a smaller state and personal responsibility. Like in Canada it will need to be YIMBY, and promote personal prosperity.
But to do that we need the MPs, who have proved themselves too akin to social democrats, to accept this profoundly Conservative prospectus. This means fewer wets.
I don't buy this who "the inheritance is so shit that the government will be immediately unpopular" narrative.
It's the same thing Mervyn King said in 2010 that whoever won the election would then be out of power for a generation.
Well Cameron's Tories won, got a Coalition, then won the next three following elections too after that with increasing shares of the vote each time, and a majority with increased seats twice including the one King forecast they'll lose.
Labour may become unpopular, and are guaranteed to eventually though that could take a generation, but when they do it'll be because of what they've done not what is blamed on their predecessors.
A smaller state, personal responsibility, YIMBY Tory Party would be great to have and would have my vote. Shame we don't have it.
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
— 1 in 5 plan on voting tactically “primarily motivated by anti-Tory sentiment”
— that’s up from 14% in 2019 and double 2010
— 1 in 3 Lib Dem voters say they’re voting tactically
I still think the Lib Dem surge is being massively underestimated and think the bets on them forming the opposition are big value.
Do we know if any of the MRPs are accounting for tactical voting on this kind of scale?
Older PB'ers will remember talk of David Steele's LIb/SDP `surge' that was promised so often but never materialised.....I wont hold my breath, I dont sense the party is either
We’re certainly not. Overinflated expectations have come crashing down around us so many times.
I just don’t think these comparisons work now. Just to give four quick reasons:
1) popularity of the Tories in that era vs the Tories now is massively different
2) preponderance of tactical voting websites nowadays amongst the general, less engaged public - compared to before where it was much harder to tell what the ‘best option’ in your area was
3) much more interchangeability between the Labour vote and the Lib Dem vote than in many elections in the past. The vast majority of Labour and Lib Dem voters would be fine with a Starmer government / with a Lib Dem surge.
4) Tory voters do not fear PM Starmer anywhere near as much as they did for past Labour leaders, and so voting Lib Dem if they wish to has no real risk to them.
I could go on but I think you have every reason to be very very optimistic.
Why do they get into such a wankfest over this every year?
The average viewer of a 24 hour news channel couldn't give a feck about a bunch of twats living in squalor for a week, and listening to bands they have never heard of.
I used to like that there was coverage of Glastonbury when it was something I could choose to care about. Now it has been elevated to something I MUST care about, I slightly resent it.
I also slightly resent that it is so achingly mainstream now. It's like the One Show in a field. It's target market appears to be a middle aged couple from the Cotswolds called Clive and Linda.
I am begging Tories, please don't copy 2019 Labour and tell the voters they are wrong. It's really not what you want to do.
To be fair, if Starmer gets election based on a platform of staying out of the single market, cutting immigration, and being tougher on crime, the Tories will be able to say that they won the argument. They just weren't seen as credible people to deliver it.
And, Starmer either delivers on it, and better than the Tories did, or his vote collapses in 5 years time too.
Why do they get into such a wankfest over this every year?
The average viewer of a 24 hour news channel couldn't give a feck about a bunch of twats living in squalor for a week, and listening to bands they have never heard of.
I used to like that there was coverage of Glastonbury when it was something I could choose to care about. Now it has been elevated to something I MUST care about, I slightly resent it.
I also slightly resent that it is so achingly mainstream now. It's like the One Show in a field. It's target market appears to be a middle aged couple from the Cotswolds called Clive and Linda.
Glastonbury is my idea of hell.
Glastonbury currently has the densest population in the UK...
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
— 1 in 5 plan on voting tactically “primarily motivated by anti-Tory sentiment”
— that’s up from 14% in 2019 and double 2010
— 1 in 3 Lib Dem voters say they’re voting tactically
I still think the Lib Dem surge is being massively underestimated and think the bets on them forming the opposition are big value.
Do we know if any of the MRPs are accounting for tactical voting on this kind of scale?
Older PB'ers will remember talk of David Steele's LIb/SDP `surge' that was promised so often but never materialised.....I wont hold my breath, I dont sense the party is either
LDs getting 30-40 seats will be a real achievement. My gut feeling is that if you offered that today to Davey he'd probably take it?
No. Why?
It’s not a perfect metric obviously but right now the Lib Dems are 1.16 on the Exchange to get 41 seats or more.
There’s a viable, viable chance of being the 2nd party behind Labour - and that will give you a massive platform for future Lib Dem power in some form. Much higher media profile, PMQs every week, etc etc.
Whereas if you get 30-40 seats, compared with what, a worst case scenario of about 20? What’s the difference? You’re light years away from Power regardless.
If the Lib Dems aren’t gunning for 2nd right now there is literally no point to them.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
I am begging Tories, please don't copy 2019 Labour and tell the voters they are wrong. It's really not what you want to do.
To be fair, if Starmer gets election based on a platform of staying out of the single market, cutting immigration, and being tougher on crime, the Tories will be able to say that they won the argument. They just weren't seen as credible people to deliver it.
And, Starmer either delivers on it, and better than the Tories did, or his vote collapses in 5 years time too.
This isn't a game.
The problem is that even drastic reform is not going to make much difference in 5 years, especially when it is more of the wrong sort of reform that makes things worse not better.
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
— 1 in 5 plan on voting tactically “primarily motivated by anti-Tory sentiment”
— that’s up from 14% in 2019 and double 2010
— 1 in 3 Lib Dem voters say they’re voting tactically
I still think the Lib Dem surge is being massively underestimated and think the bets on them forming the opposition are big value.
Do we know if any of the MRPs are accounting for tactical voting on this kind of scale?
Older PB'ers will remember talk of David Steele's LIb/SDP `surge' that was promised so often but never materialised.....I wont hold my breath, I dont sense the party is either
LDs getting 30-40 seats will be a real achievement. My gut feeling is that if you offered that today to Davey he'd probably take it?
No. Why?
It’s not a perfect metric obviously but right now the Lib Dems are 1.16 on the Exchange to get 41 seats or more.
There’s a viable, viable chance of being the 2nd party behind Labour - and that will give you a massive platform for future Lib Dem power in some form. Much higher media profile, PMQs every week, etc etc.
Whereas if you get 30-40 seats, compared with what, a worst case scenario of about 20? What’s the difference? You’re light years away from Power regardless.
If the Lib Dems aren’t gunning for 2nd right now there is literally no point to them.
If you’d offered Clegg, Kennedy or Ashdown the chance to be LOTO they’d have grabbed your hand off!
Tories admit Libdems will wins dozens of seats from them, on the door step they go hours at a time without meeting a Tory voter.
GOTV is matching the polls.
I’m crossing my fingers tight. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
I’m in Carshalton tomorrow with the youngest doing some leafleting.
"Revenge". Lol. You were our coalition partner, and you're an entirely irrelevant party riding on the coattails of a desire to change the government.
Your "revenge" is like a two-year leaving a used banana skin on the kitchen floor, and then slapping their older sister and running away.
You’re a bundle of charm today, Casino. Get used to entirely irrelevant for a while.
He’s right tho. All this well meant advice to the Tories to become new Labour is a load of duplicitous shite
1. They’re scared an actual right wing party with actual convictions will be popular. And it will
2. Fuck em
He wasn’t responding to “well meant advice”, he was just insulting a LibDem for the sake of it. Which is fine; but equally fine to respond in kind to his FPTP-steeped sense of entitlement.
Oh, and btw, fuck your ‘actual right wing party’, too.
As a liberal right winger who wants liberal economics and liberal social rights, I always preferred the right wing party in Australia being called Liberals over the Conservatives.
It will be interesting in the extremely unlikely, but not impossible, event that the Liberal Democrats do become the Opposition with plenty of seats in the South.
Do they then oppose Labour from the left, like Charles Kennedy? Or the Orange Book right like Nick Clegg?
If the left, the Conservatives will regain official opposition status the following election. The country doesn't have space for two parties of the left arguing with each other.
If the right, then there's a chance of a future Liberal Democrat government with the Liberals in the UK, like Australia, being the party of the centre right.
Tories admit Libdems will wins dozens of seats from them, on the door step they go hours at a time without meeting a Tory voter.
GOTV is matching the polls.
I’m crossing my fingers tight. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
I’m in Carshalton tomorrow with the youngest doing some leafleting.
"Revenge". Lol. You were our coalition partner, and you're an entirely irrelevant party riding on the coattails of a desire to change the government.
Your "revenge" is like a two-year leaving a used banana skin on the kitchen floor, and then slapping their older sister and running away.
You’re a bundle of charm today, Casino. Get used to entirely irrelevant for a while.
He’s right tho. All this well meant advice to the Tories to become new Labour is a load of duplicitous shite
1. They’re scared an actual right wing party with actual convictions will be popular. And it will
2. Fuck em
It will be as popular as gonorrhea.
Remember. Farage AFTER Putingate has 27% favourable and Reform have the same. 27% favourable. Almost a third of the country is rather keen on reform under Farage
That’s the target for the Tories (or whichever right right wing party emerges from this chaos). Aim slightly to the left of Farage and they will get 35-40% easily - especially after 5 sickening years of Labour wokeness, ineptitude and yet more migration
But they have to be actually right wing and they have to actually mean it and they have show how they can deliver proper right wing polices from day 1
It’s not hard. Do that and they can overturn Labour in one term
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
They'll be unpopular very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if govt. debt leads to some form of bail out or restructure in the coming years, either.
The best thing the Tory party can do is build a coherent, principled justification for a smaller state and personal responsibility. Like in Canada it will need to be YIMBY, and promote personal prosperity.
But to do that we need the MPs, who have proved themselves too akin to social democrats, to accept this profoundly Conservative prospectus. This means fewer wets.
I'm not sure this will happen in quite the way some suggest, as it's a similar argument to the usually wrong one that an election would be "a good election to lose" due to the problems in the government's in-tray being so large as to make whoever addresses them unpopular.
Labour people thought it in 1979 and 2010 and ended up out of power for a very long time and facing very different countries to the one they left by the time they got back.
Voters tend to grant politicians some grace if they think the country's in a hole and action is needed to fix it. No doubt Labour would face some mid-term blues and controversial decisions, but the Tories will still take a large proportion of the blame and find themselves cast as the party who crashed the car and are now making irresponsible promises to persuade you to let them take the wheel again. Eve
As for a smaller state, the basic structural problem for the Tories is that they have become increasingly reliant on voters who like a large state - even if they're unaware of it. Namely elderly homeowners whose wellbeing is tied to the state being generous towards them even as demographics mean it grows and is put under greater strain.
Meanwhile, other parts of the state that others rely on often feel threadbare or cruel to the point that most serious observers believe taking an axe to them is impossible - a big part of Liz Truss's problem was that markets simply didn't believe the cuts that might be needed to pay for tax cuts were possible/plausible. That's before we get to things like courts, prisons, and immigration enforcement.
Anyone advocating for a smaller state needs to say what goes - chances are it's even more unpopular than tax rises.
It would be almost unheard of for a political party to switch its electoral strategy as completely as the Tories would have to to appeal to the kind of younger, working age voters for whom a smaller state and lower taxes now might be an attractive proposition.
It would require housebuilding, as you say. A mea culpa and apology on Brexit and the culture wars it fuels (yes, the left is far from blameless there - but still - the party of Suella Braverman isn't going to make the kind of inroads it would need to), before they get a hearing from those they'd need support from.
Plus, all the evidence suggests they will do the opposite and become Reform 2.0, with all the wild unrealistic spending promises that entails.
As a liberal right winger who wants liberal economics and liberal social rights, I always preferred the right wing party in Australia being called Liberals over the Conservatives.
It will be interesting in the extremely unlikely, but not impossible, event that the Liberal Democrats do become the Opposition with plenty of seats in the South.
Do they then oppose Labour from the left, like Charles Kennedy? Or the Orange Book right like Nick Clegg?
If the left, the Conservatives will regain official opposition status the following election. The country doesn't have space for two parties of the left arguing with each other.
If the right, then there's a chance of a future Liberal Democrat government with the Liberals in the UK, like Australia, being the party of the centre right.
Interesting times.
If they are the official opposition then over 80% of them will be freshman* MPs, so who knows. Could be anything, I wonder if much thought has even gone into it, or just local choices.
* thought briefly about adding/freshwoman but that sounds horrible for some reason.
I am begging Tories, please don't copy 2019 Labour and tell the voters they are wrong. It's really not what you want to do.
To be fair, if Starmer gets election based on a platform of staying out of the single market, cutting immigration, and being tougher on crime, the Tories will be able to say that they won the argument. They just weren't seen as credible people to deliver it.
And, Starmer either delivers on it, and better than the Tories did, or his vote collapses in 5 years time too.
This isn't a game.
According to polling of Labour voters their main priorities are healthcare, housing, and the economy, so that's where he needs to deliver.
Still, cutting immigration won't be hard. That's been neatly set up for any party with the recent record numbers.
Why do they get into such a wankfest over this every year?
The average viewer of a 24 hour news channel couldn't give a feck about a bunch of twats living in squalor for a week, and listening to bands they have never heard of.
I used to like that there was coverage of Glastonbury when it was something I could choose to care about. Now it has been elevated to something I MUST care about, I slightly resent it.
I also slightly resent that it is so achingly mainstream now. It's like the One Show in a field. It's target market appears to be a middle aged couple from the Cotswolds called Clive and Linda.
Glastonbury is my idea of hell.
Glastonbury currently has the densest population in the UK...
For some reason - probably the obvious, crystal and brown-ricer*, connexion, it's called the Glastonbury Festival, but it's actually as far to Glastonbury as it is to Pilton.
Be more accurate to say that Pilton Village does ...
* a local expression I learnt from my Somerset Levels friend talking about the hippy element
As a liberal right winger who wants liberal economics and liberal social rights, I always preferred the right wing party in Australia being called Liberals over the Conservatives.
It will be interesting in the extremely unlikely, but not impossible, event that the Liberal Democrats do become the Opposition with plenty of seats in the South.
Do they then oppose Labour from the left, like Charles Kennedy? Or the Orange Book right like Nick Clegg?
If the left, the Conservatives will regain official opposition status the following election. The country doesn't have space for two parties of the left arguing with each other.
If the right, then there's a chance of a future Liberal Democrat government with the Liberals in the UK, like Australia, being the party of the centre right.
Interesting times.
Their instinct, especially from their activists will be to oppose Labour from the left. But like you say, the real opening for the Lib-Dems to once again rise as a potential party of government would be to oppose from the center right as that's where the space will be until the Tories either get their act together or another center right party emerges.
As a liberal right winger who wants liberal economics and liberal social rights, I always preferred the right wing party in Australia being called Liberals over the Conservatives.
It will be interesting in the extremely unlikely, but not impossible, event that the Liberal Democrats do become the Opposition with plenty of seats in the South.
Do they then oppose Labour from the left, like Charles Kennedy? Or the Orange Book right like Nick Clegg?
If the left, the Conservatives will regain official opposition status the following election. The country doesn't have space for two parties of the left arguing with each other.
If the right, then there's a chance of a future Liberal Democrat government with the Liberals in the UK, like Australia, being the party of the centre right.
Interesting times.
If they are the official opposition then over 80% of them will be freshman* MPs, so who knows. Could be anything, I wonder if much thought has even gone into it, or just local choices.
* thought briefly about adding/freshwoman but that sounds horrible for some reason.
'fresher' is the neutral tern for which you cherchez.
Why do they get into such a wankfest over this every year?
The average viewer of a 24 hour news channel couldn't give a feck about a bunch of twats living in squalor for a week, and listening to bands they have never heard of.
I used to like that there was coverage of Glastonbury when it was something I could choose to care about. Now it has been elevated to something I MUST care about, I slightly resent it.
I also slightly resent that it is so achingly mainstream now. It's like the One Show in a field. It's target market appears to be a middle aged couple from the Cotswolds called Clive and Linda.
Glastonbury is my idea of hell.
Surely Glastonbury under a newly minted Labour administration would be worse for you. Wall to wall Starmer and Rayner crying "yeah, alright" to strains of D'Ream.
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
They'll be unpopular very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if govt. debt leads to some form of bail out or restructure in the coming years, either.
The best thing the Tory party can do is build a coherent, principled justification for a smaller state and personal responsibility. Like in Canada it will need to be YIMBY, and promote personal prosperity.
But to do that we need the MPs, who have proved themselves too akin to social democrats, to accept this profoundly Conservative prospectus. This means fewer wets.
I'm not sure this will happen in quite the way some suggest, as it's a similar argument to the usually wrong one that an election would be "a good election to lose" due to the problems in the government's in-tray being so large as to make whoever addresses them unpopular.
Labour people thought it in 1979 and 2010 and ended up out of power for a very long time and facing very different countries to the one they left by the time they got back.
Voters tend to grant politicians some grace if they think the country's in a hole and action is needed to fix it. No doubt Labour would face some mid-term blues and controversial decisions, but the Tories will still take a large proportion of the blame and find themselves cast as the party who crashed the car and are now making irresponsible promises to persuade you to let them take the wheel again. Eve
As for a smaller state, the basic structural problem for the Tories is that they have become increasingly reliant on voters who like a large state - even if they're unaware of it. Namely elderly homeowners whose wellbeing is tied to the state being generous towards them even as demographics mean it grows and is put under greater strain.
Meanwhile, other parts of the state that others rely on often feel threadbare or cruel to the point that most serious observers believe taking an axe to them is impossible - a big part of Liz Truss's problem was that markets simply didn't believe the cuts that might be needed to pay for tax cuts were possible/plausible. That's before we get to things like courts, prisons, and immigration enforcement.
Anyone advocating for a smaller state needs to say what goes - chances are it's even more unpopular than tax rises.
It would be almost unheard of for a political party to switch its electoral strategy as completely as the Tories would have to to appeal to the kind of younger, working age voters for whom a smaller state and lower taxes now might be an attractive proposition.
It would require housebuilding, as you say. A mea culpa and apology on Brexit and the culture wars it fuels (yes, the left is far from blameless there - but still - the party of Suella Braverman isn't going to make the kind of inroads it would need to), before they get a hearing from those they'd need support from.
Plus, all the evidence suggests they will do the opposite and become Reform 2.0, with all the wild unrealistic spending promises that entails.
Best save some popcorn for the coming fight for the future of whatever's left of the Conservative Party.
That poor genie locked in Starmer's basement dungeon though...
I am begging Tories, please don't copy 2019 Labour and tell the voters they are wrong. It's really not what you want to do.
To be fair, if Starmer gets election based on a platform of staying out of the single market, cutting immigration, and being tougher on crime, the Tories will be able to say that they won the argument. They just weren't seen as credible people to deliver it.
And, Starmer either delivers on it, and better than the Tories did, or his vote collapses in 5 years time too.
This isn't a game.
According to polling of Labour voters their main priorities are healthcare, housing, and the economy, so that's where he needs to deliver.
Still, cutting immigration won't be hard. That's been neatly set up for any party with the recent record numbers.
Sunak's most recent measures will probably take effect within 12-18 months, so Starmer will be lucky there too.
He'll have a big problems with the boats though. My guess is the smugglers test his resolve as they'll assume a Labour government will be "softer".
Tories admit Libdems will wins dozens of seats from them, on the door step they go hours at a time without meeting a Tory voter.
GOTV is matching the polls.
I’m crossing my fingers tight. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
I’m in Carshalton tomorrow with the youngest doing some leafleting.
"Revenge". Lol. You were our coalition partner, and you're an entirely irrelevant party riding on the coattails of a desire to change the government.
Your "revenge" is like a two-year leaving a used banana skin on the kitchen floor, and then slapping their older sister and running away.
You’re a bundle of charm today, Casino. Get used to entirely irrelevant for a while.
He’s right tho. All this well meant advice to the Tories to become new Labour is a load of duplicitous shite
1. They’re scared an actual right wing party with actual convictions will be popular. And it will
2. Fuck em
He wasn’t responding to “well meant advice”, he was just insulting a LibDem for the sake of it. Which is fine; but equally fine to respond in kind to his FPTP-steeped sense of entitlement.
Oh, and btw, fuck your ‘actual right wing party’, too.
Wait for Gen Z to realise they don’t want mass immigration any more. It is happening across mainland Europe. It will happen in the UK
Then you really are fucked. And it will be our turn. Tomorrrow belongs to ME
I have a feeling he may be Rishi Sunak under a pseudonym. It’s the pattern of periods of quiet resignation interspersed with surprisingly pugnacious spells, just like the debates. And a real step up in anti-Reform posting after racist-gate.
As a liberal right winger who wants liberal economics and liberal social rights, I always preferred the right wing party in Australia being called Liberals over the Conservatives.
It will be interesting in the extremely unlikely, but not impossible, event that the Liberal Democrats do become the Opposition with plenty of seats in the South.
Do they then oppose Labour from the left, like Charles Kennedy? Or the Orange Book right like Nick Clegg?
If the left, the Conservatives will regain official opposition status the following election. The country doesn't have space for two parties of the left arguing with each other.
If the right, then there's a chance of a future Liberal Democrat government with the Liberals in the UK, like Australia, being the party of the centre right.
Interesting times.
If they are the official opposition then over 80% of them will be freshman* MPs, so who knows. Could be anything, I wonder if much thought has even gone into it, or just local choices.
* thought briefly about adding/freshwoman but that sounds horrible for some reason.
Same applies to Labour. Lots and lots of inexperienced MP’s. Come to think of it if Green etc do well in England there’ll probably be far more first term MP’s than any otherwise. Maybe for the first time since 1918!
Supporters of Reform on here. Assuming you want your “party” to control the executive and legislature does not the simple statement in the below link worry you about the democratic credentials of your man?
If a man controls a “party” (in this case a limited company of said man who owns 8 out of its 13 shares) which has a majority in the Commons I would imagine that the principle of pleasing the leader is becomes the imperative.
No I want them to get a toehold of a few MPs so that when Labour run into the sand and end up as unpopular as the Tories are now we will have an actually conservative party (which is far broader than Reform), shorn of libdem fifth columnists calling themselves centrists, willing to make the necessary reforms that Brexit now empowers Parliament to do.
1) Repeal ECHR membership.
2) Repeal Climate Change Act.
3) Repeal Equality Act and replace with bill of Rights (which will include measures to stop discrimination for whatever reason through measures similar to the common carrier legislation on Railways that stopped them refusing customers and stopped them charging different customers different amounts. (the common carrier legislation was the worlds first anti discrimination legislation)).
4) Abolish hate crime legislation and instead increase sentences on (non hate aggravated) offences to the levels of aggravated offences under hate crime legislation, with judges able to reduce them if mitigation applies.
5) Replace welfare system with contributory based welfare system. Min 5 years full NI contribtutions to get cover (unless child of contributor turning 18 in which case cover through parents for first five years). Transition period applies to avoid existing over 18 residents losing cover in first five years.
6) No NHS cover until 5 years full NI contributions unless cover through parents having such cover. Transition period as above.
7) All restrictions on migration dropped, however no enitlement to any state aid whatsoever for first five years.
If they do too well and get dozens of MPs it will be a disaster as all sorts of unsuitable people will get elected. This is a long game.
But stage 1 is a toehold and the Tories going the way of the Liberals in the 1920s.
In one way I have no issue if the Conservative Party does go down this route. But I am telling you that if you do you will never hold power in this country. Your time in the wilderness will be as long as you headbang these nutty ideas. They are stark raving bonkers.
I partly expect the Party do do just this.
But I’m calling on all moderate, sensible, Conservatives on here not to let your Party do this. You need to be back vying for power once again and that means listening to moderates not these headbangers.
They'll be unpopular very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if govt. debt leads to some form of bail out or restructure in the coming years, either.
The best thing the Tory party can do is build a coherent, principled justification for a smaller state and personal responsibility. Like in Canada it will need to be YIMBY, and promote personal prosperity.
But to do that we need the MPs, who have proved themselves too akin to social democrats, to accept this profoundly Conservative prospectus. This means fewer wets.
The problem with the Conservatives advocating personal responsibility is that Conservative politicians show sod all sign of personal responsibility themselves.
What the Conservatives need is not fewer wets or fewer drys but fewer shits.
"Under law, neither man’s age would allow him to pilot a commercial airliner. Or serve in command as a military officer. Or be appointed as an appellate judge in most U.S. states. And in Trump’s case, because of his felony conviction, he is not allowed to own a gun.
Both men are, however, still eligible to control the deadliest weapon arsenal known to man."
As a liberal right winger who wants liberal economics and liberal social rights, I always preferred the right wing party in Australia being called Liberals over the Conservatives.
It will be interesting in the extremely unlikely, but not impossible, event that the Liberal Democrats do become the Opposition with plenty of seats in the South.
Do they then oppose Labour from the left, like Charles Kennedy? Or the Orange Book right like Nick Clegg?
If the left, the Conservatives will regain official opposition status the following election. The country doesn't have space for two parties of the left arguing with each other.
If the right, then there's a chance of a future Liberal Democrat government with the Liberals in the UK, like Australia, being the party of the centre right.
Interesting times.
Their instinct, especially from their activists will be to oppose Labour from the left. But like you say, the real opening for the Lib-Dems to once again rise as a potential party of government would be to oppose from the center right as that's where the space will be until the Tories either get their act together or another center right party emerges.
There is a place for a liberal green (teal) political force. That’s the direction I’d like to see the party go in.
There’s also a possibility of a French split: populist right (Reform and Suella-Tories), socialist left (soft left of Labour leftwards), and centrist liberals incorporating the Blairites and Cameronians.
I'm tired of her Taylor Swift maturbation over Starmer and I will piss all over it if I want to.
Better than having to join in the bukkake.
You can say what you want but surely we can at least respect who people vote for? I don't disrespect your voting choice as I hope you would not mine. I am sure we can agree that the Labour choice this time is far more appealing than in 2019.
Tories admit Libdems will wins dozens of seats from them, on the door step they go hours at a time without meeting a Tory voter.
GOTV is matching the polls.
I’m crossing my fingers tight. Revenge is a dish best served cold.
I’m in Carshalton tomorrow with the youngest doing some leafleting.
"Revenge". Lol. You were our coalition partner, and you're an entirely irrelevant party riding on the coattails of a desire to change the government.
Your "revenge" is like a two-year leaving a used banana skin on the kitchen floor, and then slapping their older sister and running away.
You’re a bundle of charm today, Casino. Get used to entirely irrelevant for a while.
He’s right tho. All this well meant advice to the Tories to become new Labour is a load of duplicitous shite
1. They’re scared an actual right wing party with actual convictions will be popular. And it will
2. Fuck em
He wasn’t responding to “well meant advice”, he was just insulting a LibDem for the sake of it. Which is fine; but equally fine to respond in kind to his FPTP-steeped sense of entitlement.
Oh, and btw, fuck your ‘actual right wing party’, too.
Wait for Gen Z to realise they don’t want mass immigration any more. It is happening across mainland Europe. It will happen in the UK
Then you really are fucked. And it will be our turn. Tomorrrow belongs to ME
So in ten years time you get your hard right government.
Presumably you want a COMPETENT hard right government.
Which rules out Farage and his rabble plus the likes of the useless Braverman gang.
So those who want their far right government really need to start planning now who is going to be in it and what they are going to do.
As a liberal right winger who wants liberal economics and liberal social rights, I always preferred the right wing party in Australia being called Liberals over the Conservatives.
It will be interesting in the extremely unlikely, but not impossible, event that the Liberal Democrats do become the Opposition with plenty of seats in the South.
Do they then oppose Labour from the left, like Charles Kennedy? Or the Orange Book right like Nick Clegg?
If the left, the Conservatives will regain official opposition status the following election. The country doesn't have space for two parties of the left arguing with each other.
If the right, then there's a chance of a future Liberal Democrat government with the Liberals in the UK, like Australia, being the party of the centre right.
Interesting times.
If they are the official opposition then over 80% of them will be freshman* MPs, so who knows. Could be anything, I wonder if much thought has even gone into it, or just local choices.
* thought briefly about adding/freshwoman but that sounds horrible for some reason.
Same applies to Labour. Lots and lots of inexperienced MP’s. Come to think of it if Green etc do well in England there’ll probably be far more first term MP’s than any otherwise. Maybe for the first time since 1918!
But there is an established hierarchy above the Labour intake. Maybe 50 odds senior MPs including the shadow cabinet, and then the carrot of future ministerial appointments to keep them in line.
With the LDs there are only 15 in total, of which being generous 6 (Davey, Cooper, Moran, Farron, Carmichael and Hobhouse) could be considered senior.
A big debate on Twitter - often amongst Democrats - about Biden’s alleged dementia. As they are discussing it - and using the D word - surely we can
Lots of them are desperate for him to step aside. One argument they are making is that dementia is not just about mumbling and slowing, which can indeed be handled by good advisors taking over most tasks. Some dementias turn you paranoid, angry, aggressive - they can make you hallucinate
Someone in that state simply cannot be POTUS. Not anywhere near it. Logically, Biden either has to prove he’s not got dementia or he has to go. If he doesn’t do either of these he is absolutely going to lose as Americans absorb this logic
But Biden has not shown any of those symptoms.
Trump however...
(No doubt something is wrong with Biden but there are plenty of other options. My partner reckons she knows what it is, and she works in old age psych)
So what is it?
Parkinson's (but with no tremor), but they aren't giving him the full whack of medication because the side effects would be too obvious. Would explain the on/off days.
Yes, the bradykinesis, mumbling, shuffling gait and expressionless face all fits quite well. Quite possible to have both of course.
She also points out that pretty much everyone over 70 has some form of vascular change (I'm just the messenger @PB oldies). With highly intelligent people this can be compensated for, but Biden's baseline is much more obvious given decades of TV etc etc. If you watch a video of Biden from 5 years ago he's nowhere near as sharp as he was 20 years ago, for example.
(Also reckons that if it is Parkinson's, his medical team didn't quite get the timing correct for the debate)
The same was true of George W Bush whose speech was much sharper as Governor than as President.
Comments
The Labour Party
@UKLabour
·
1h
If you want change, you need to vote Labour on Thursday 4 July.
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
And they did it all to themselves
They were 20% up in the polls, had a thumping council elections win at the start of the campaign, and yet still only won by a couple of %.
From my own campaigning in that election, whatever you think of the young Momentum members - they certainly didn't do hopelessness.
2024 is incompetence
The problem is the Conservatives have nothing to fight on. They’ve had three terrible Prime Ministers, since 2019. Their administration has been the most venial in modern history.
The Tory social media campaign this time has been awful. Isaac "I don't know what I am doing" Levido has a lot to answer for. Labour on the other hand has probably run the best digital campaign I've seen, outclassing 2017.
It reminds me of the Thick of It, where they have stupid policies that they have come up with and they get in a tight spot and they blurt them out, wooden toys.....
Are they supposed to be talking about nhs waiting lists?
I’m just heading back up to Surrey after a lovely week in the SW. I’ve no idea what will happen in Newton Abbot Constituency tbh, so I suspect a Cons HOLD!
1) put up taxes
2) cut spending
They'll be unpopular very quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if govt. debt leads to some form of bail out or restructure in the coming years, either.
The best thing the Tory party can do is build a coherent, principled justification for a smaller state and personal responsibility. Like in Canada it will need to be YIMBY, and promote personal prosperity.
But to do that we need the MPs, who have proved themselves too akin to social democrats, to accept this profoundly Conservative prospectus. This means fewer wets.
It means you will be targetting a very small target audience, not one that will get you a majority.
You don't need to end up an Earl to understand this, but it evidently helps - good old Supermac!
Brianna Wu
@BriannaWu
·
9h
So let’s just say I’m wrong. Biden should stay in. What is the plan to win this thing? Do we just stay the course? How do we convince voters that he is not too old to serve?
It’s entirely possible my analysis is wrong, but I really need an answer to this.
https://x.com/BriannaWu/status/1806873922459041973
Evil Nick Palmer exists somewhere, elsewhere. It could be Essex.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AYsdW1RbWw
(I won't mention the Mirror Universe from Deep Space Nine; that would be too worrying, and we would have to postulate Milton Keynes.)
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1806960870058004550?s=46
the Tory campaign now expects to lose dozens of seats previously considered completely safe to the LibDems
— it sees large numbers of people in the south of England voting tactically to get their local Tory MP out
— Tory activists in places like Henley report not meeting anyone saying they’re going to vote Tory for hours at a time
— at least two Cabinet ministers have been told by CCHQ they are going to lose their seats to the LibDems and had resources withdrawn
— Tory, Lab, LibDem campaigns all see evidence of people using online tools to tactically vote
— in 234 out of 650 seats, 40% of people intend to vote tactically for a party other than their first preference “to see the back of the Tories” says @pimlicat
— @keiranpedley @ipsosuk say there’s evidence of increased tactical votes
— 1 in 5 plan on voting tactically “primarily motivated by anti-Tory sentiment”
— that’s up from 14% in 2019 and double 2010
— 1 in 3 Lib Dem voters say they’re voting tactically
I still think the Lib Dem surge is being massively underestimated and think the bets on them forming the opposition are big value.
Do we know if any of the MRPs are accounting for tactical voting on this kind of scale?
One you'll be living with the rest of your life.
Hope your ballot gets lost in the post.
Our fightback begins on Friday. We are coming for you on Day One.
It's entirely narcissistic, not altruistic.
Principles over party loyalty.
If the Tories want my vote back, they need to win it back. They can't treat it for granted.
In terms of the necessary trained, skilled, people,
Especially with all the complex green building regulations surrounding new houses and the fact that experienced builders are cutting back hours and retiring early because the high income taxes and allowance withdrawals mean its not worth it.
Doesn't matter how much labour reform planning or throw money at it. They aint getting built.
The future is sweating of existing assets, as with any highly regulated communist state. Expect more people per dwelling and far more houses converted to hmos (predominantly by Rachmanite cowboys as regulations mean its not worth the hassle of bothering and not economic for anyone who follows them)
It's basically the by-election story of who is in second place, once people know that everyone switches to that option. If the Lib Dems / Labour have done that successfully there are probably few safe Home County Tory seats...
Your "revenge" is like a two-year leaving a used banana skin on the kitchen floor, and then slapping their older sister and running away.
I’d happily pay a few quid a month for it, but I do spend quite a lot of time here.
I’ve made my views pretty clear.
It's the same thing Mervyn King said in 2010 that whoever won the election would then be out of power for a generation.
Well Cameron's Tories won, got a Coalition, then won the next three following elections too after that with increasing shares of the vote each time, and a majority with increased seats twice including the one King forecast they'll lose.
Labour may become unpopular, and are guaranteed to eventually though that could take a generation, but when they do it'll be because of what they've done not what is blamed on their predecessors.
A smaller state, personal responsibility, YIMBY Tory Party would be great to have and would have my vote. Shame we don't have it.
Oysters and bread aside, I ate FAR better in Moldova, Transnistria and Ukraine than I am eating in Brittany
1) popularity of the Tories in that era vs the Tories now is massively different
2) preponderance of tactical voting websites nowadays amongst the general, less engaged public - compared to before where it was much harder to tell what the ‘best option’ in your area was
3) much more interchangeability between the Labour vote and the Lib Dem vote than in many elections in the past. The vast majority of Labour and Lib Dem voters would be fine with a Starmer government / with a Lib Dem surge.
4) Tory voters do not fear PM Starmer anywhere near as much as they did for past Labour leaders, and so voting Lib Dem if they wish to has no real risk to them.
I could go on but I think you have every reason to be very very optimistic.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2024/06/austria-pre-qualifying-2024.html
This isn't a game.
Get used to entirely irrelevant for a while.
It’s not a perfect metric obviously but right now the Lib Dems are 1.16 on the Exchange to get 41 seats or more.
There’s a viable, viable chance of being the 2nd party behind Labour - and that will give you a massive platform for future Lib Dem power in some form. Much higher media profile, PMQs every week, etc etc.
Whereas if you get 30-40 seats, compared with what, a worst case scenario of about 20? What’s the difference? You’re light years away from Power regardless.
If the Lib Dems aren’t gunning for 2nd right now there is literally no point to them.
The true old fashioned HYUFDian 18th Century Tories haven't ever been election winners in the era of universal suffrage.
Thatcher, Cameron etc advocated liberal economics. That's why so many liberals like myself have been Conservatives.
Lose the liberals, you lose the election.
1. They’re scared an actual right wing party with actual convictions will be popular. And it will
2. Fuck em
Couldn't care less what you think.
Edit. Or Ming Campbell!
I'm tired of her Taylor Swift maturbation over Starmer and I will piss all over it if I want to.
Better than having to join in the bukkake.
Which is fine; but equally fine to respond in kind to his FPTP-steeped sense of entitlement.
Oh, and btw, fuck your ‘actual right wing party’, too.
It will be interesting in the extremely unlikely, but not impossible, event that the Liberal Democrats do become the Opposition with plenty of seats in the South.
Do they then oppose Labour from the left, like Charles Kennedy? Or the Orange Book right like Nick Clegg?
If the left, the Conservatives will regain official opposition status the following election. The country doesn't have space for two parties of the left arguing with each other.
If the right, then there's a chance of a future Liberal Democrat government with the Liberals in the UK, like Australia, being the party of the centre right.
Interesting times.
That’s the target for the Tories (or whichever right right wing party emerges from this chaos). Aim slightly to the left of Farage and they will get 35-40% easily - especially after 5 sickening years of Labour wokeness, ineptitude and yet more migration
But they have to be actually right wing and they have to actually mean it and they have show how they can deliver proper right wing polices from day 1
It’s not hard. Do that and they can overturn Labour in one term
This makes me feel better.
I could call everyone a See You Next Tuesday on behalf of Sunak and *still* probably win over more votes than the official CCHQ campaign.
He's in stage two of Kubler Ross.
Labour people thought it in 1979 and 2010 and ended up out of power for a very long time and facing very different countries to the one they left by the time they got back.
Voters tend to grant politicians some grace if they think the country's in a hole and action is needed to fix it. No doubt Labour would face some mid-term blues and controversial decisions, but the Tories will still take a large proportion of the blame and find themselves cast as the party who crashed the car and are now making irresponsible promises to persuade you to let them take the wheel again. Eve
As for a smaller state, the basic structural problem for the Tories is that they have become increasingly reliant on voters who like a large state - even if they're unaware of it. Namely elderly homeowners whose wellbeing is tied to the state being generous towards them even as demographics mean it grows and is put under greater strain.
Meanwhile, other parts of the state that others rely on often feel threadbare or cruel to the point that most serious observers believe taking an axe to them is impossible - a big part of Liz Truss's problem was that markets simply didn't believe the cuts that might be needed to pay for tax cuts were possible/plausible. That's before we get to things like courts, prisons, and immigration enforcement.
Anyone advocating for a smaller state needs to say what goes - chances are it's even more unpopular than tax rises.
It would be almost unheard of for a political party to switch its electoral strategy as completely as the Tories would have to to appeal to the kind of younger, working age voters for whom a smaller state and lower taxes now might be an attractive proposition.
It would require housebuilding, as you say. A mea culpa and apology on Brexit and the culture wars it fuels (yes, the left is far from blameless there - but still - the party of Suella Braverman isn't going to make the kind of inroads it would need to), before they get a hearing from those they'd need support from.
Plus, all the evidence suggests they will do the opposite and become Reform 2.0, with all the wild unrealistic spending promises that entails.
* thought briefly about adding/freshwoman but that sounds horrible for some reason.
Still, cutting immigration won't be hard. That's been neatly set up for any party with the recent record numbers.
Be more accurate to say that Pilton Village does ...
* a local expression I learnt from my Somerset Levels friend talking about the hippy element
Think I'll watch that instead.
That poor genie locked in Starmer's basement dungeon though...
He'll have a big problems with the boats though. My guess is the smugglers test his resolve as they'll assume a Labour government will be "softer".
Then you really are fucked. And it will be our turn. Tomorrrow belongs to ME
What the Conservatives need is not fewer wets or fewer drys but fewer shits.
Both men are, however, still eligible to control the deadliest weapon arsenal known to man."
NY Times
There’s also a possibility of a French split: populist right (Reform and Suella-Tories), socialist left (soft left of Labour leftwards), and centrist liberals incorporating the Blairites and Cameronians.
I do accept that it’s mostly self inflicted though.
Lab 250
Lib 70
Con 65
Ref 15
Do Con and Ref merge so the Right can hang on to official opposition status? But if they do merge would some Con MP's quit and join the Lib-Dems?
The days after the election could be somewhat fraught...
Presumably you want a COMPETENT hard right government.
Which rules out Farage and his rabble plus the likes of the useless Braverman gang.
So those who want their far right government really need to start planning now who is going to be in it and what they are going to do.
With the LDs there are only 15 in total, of which being generous 6 (Davey, Cooper, Moran, Farron, Carmichael and Hobhouse) could be considered senior.