"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Don't know why anyone who doesn't need a postal vote would apply for one. It's a bit like walking out of a football game after 60 minutes, or watching half a movie and writing a review.
You can use it to vote on the day by taking it to any polling station.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Trudeau has been in government for 9 years though and won 3 general elections, in Canada it is just more natural swing of the pendulum. (Of course in 1993 the Canadian Tories got just 2 seats and even Rishi isn't doing that badly yet)
The Tories are currently gifting Labour a decade. They probably don't deserve it.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Yes, I think that is my 2029 scenario in a nutshell. Farage 2029 isn't nailed on, and a lot can happen in 5 years. But people are mostly voting Labour at the moment to kick the Tories. After five years of tax rises and unwanted immgration, they may well be voting Farage to kick Labour.
Immigration in the first year of the new Labour government will be lower. The student numbers will fall, the unwind from a COVID-19 effect and the effect of a worsening Chinese economy. The numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will be lower.
Galloway and Farage are friends - despite policy disagreements. That said, Galloway probably is picking up something, in Rochdale. He’s an able campaigner, with a record of wins, as an independent.
This poll is hard to believe, but there is a trend
They may be friends - or at least comrades-in-arms as mavericks - but I see abslutely no reason, ideologically, for Galloway to ramp Reform?
Both love Brexit. Feel warmer than one should be comfortable with towards Putin. Have problems with minority groups they don't like.
Two cheeks of the same arse. Of course they'd ramp each other. Many of the WPGB candidates and Reform ones are a bit interchangeable in terms of being cranks with 'interesting' views.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
The country has been fucked by the Tories and I think Labour might contrive to make it WORSE
So, if Reform get in, the worst they can do is be as bad as Labour or the Tories. Meh
Yeah but. You've no evidence Labour would make it worse. That's your feelz. Which is fair enough for me. Emotion is of greater value than logic from my standpoint. However, there is a decent empirical view using the Enlightenment values of Reason, which you cherish so highly that Reform would be a fuckton worse than the Tories. Farage brooks no dissent. And didn't at least put in a shift like Sunak, when he was an MEP. His Party, and the governing Party of the country is a private company owned by him. The candidates haven't been vetted, nor have any experience. The manifesto is the polar opposite on almost everything other than immigration to the views of the very people who will have vote for it. It'd make the last eight years look like an oasis of calm.
OK I will meet you halfway. Yes it is a risk. But then the world right now is full of risk, much of it far worse than a Reform government - from nuclear war to XXXX to climate change to Donald Trump to more pandemics to whatever
And the risk of Reform actually winning a majority of seats is tiny. It's a ten thousand to one shot
I am not a fan of Farage - tho I respect his political skills, and agree with him on immigration - but he'd be a shit prime minister. However he is not going to be PM. What I would like him to do is destroy the Tory party or force it into a merger so we get a real rightwing Opposition that is willing and able to do actual rightwing things. Given that he is very very very unlikely to be PM I am tempted to take the risk and give Reform my vote to thereby achieve my real obective: kill off the feeble wet pseudo-Tories
Is this illegal ? Any one know of any one else being convicted of “insider betting” ? A Met investigation is obviously different
My understanding is that a wager/bet is a form of contract based on a future uncertain event. The event must be both in the future, and uncertain. So, if the policeman overheard something, or was told something, which meant that the future event was no longer uncertain, then the bet is voidable by the other party - presumably the poor honest hardworking bookie.
The problem for the policeman is that in attempting to place the bet, he was acting dishonestly - he knew that the event was no longer uncertain, but pretended that it was. So the Met might well come down on him like a ton of bricks.
The suspected offence here is apparently "misconduct in public office", rather than anything betting specific. If there were such a law presumably they'd have mentioned that too.
Also, just found that the Gambling Commission have a "misuse of inside information" pdf on this web page: https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/licensees-and-businesses/guide/page/important-documents -- it lays out a spectrum from "Art of Betting" through various kinds of awareness of inside information through to outright cheating to manipulate the event. Even stuff like "an employee working on a television competition (eg TV talent or reality competitions) with advance knowledge of the health of a competitor, participation in a TV show or of early phone results" only gets employer sanctions and the bet contractually voided.
Galloway and Farage are friends - despite policy disagreements. That said, Galloway probably is picking up something, in Rochdale. He’s an able campaigner, with a record of wins, as an independent.
This poll is hard to believe, but there is a trend
They may be friends - or at least comrades-in-arms as mavericks - but I see abslutely no reason, ideologically, for Galloway to ramp Reform?
Both love Brexit. Feel warmer than one should be comfortable with towards Putin. Have problems with minority groups they don't like.
Two cheeks of the same arse. Of course they'd ramp each other. Many of the WPGB candidates and Reform ones are a bit interchangeable in terms of being cranks with 'interesting' views.
I see we're at the "praise George Galloway's intellect" stage of the ramping
If you think Galloway is stupid then you are the stupid one. He doesn't constantly win by-elections by sheer luck. He's cunning, clever, rutheless and a really good orator. And I DETEST his quasi-Islamist politics
Unlike Farage, he actually fights a ground campaign.
Farage strikes me as someone who'll stack up votes across the country spread like butter but, with no seats. No data. No activists. No organisation.
But.. I could be wrong and an earthquake is coming.
Not surprised to see Reform continuing to thrive in the polls.
Incidentally, my experience is that most Tory activists don't understand Reform at all.
Two of us in my association have been stating the risks for years. Ever since Truss was deposed and Sunak foisted upon the membership by the Parly party. Interestingly, both of us have far more working class influences and non-Southern roots within our families.
"Foisted" my shiny metal ass. If you want to use the word at all, would you not say that that Truss was foisted on the country by Major Incipient-Dementia and his good lady wife of Dunroamin, or in your terms "the membership"? In a very close contest, Hague is probably the biggest arse among living current and former con leaders for giving the membership the vote. Which effectively gives him ownership of all his successors.
Yet they consistently pick the least worst option of the two that the shitty PCP gives them - this time being no exception, given that they chose 'market shock' Truss over 'complete Tory extinction event' Sunak.
Galloway and Farage are friends - despite policy disagreements. That said, Galloway probably is picking up something, in Rochdale. He’s an able campaigner, with a record of wins, as an independent.
This poll is hard to believe, but there is a trend
They may be friends - or at least comrades-in-arms as mavericks - but I see abslutely no reason, ideologically, for Galloway to ramp Reform?
Both love Brexit. Feel warmer than one should be comfortable with towards Putin. Have problems with minority groups they don't like.
Two cheeks of the same arse. Of course they'd ramp each other. Many of the WPGB candidates and Reform ones are a bit interchangeable in terms of being cranks with 'interesting' views.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Although the parallels are tenuous. The Canadian Conservative meltdown was 31 years ago. Trudeau won his majority nine years ago.
My point is it shows that westerm electorates are now massively more volatile than they were. Party loyalties are breaking down across the West, and even governments with big majorities can be destroyed in months
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Although the parallels are tenuous. The Canadian Conservative meltdown was 31 years ago. Trudeau won his majority nine years ago.
Today's Canadian Conservatives are though the product of a merger of the rump Canadian Tories and their populist Reform party (from whom Farage cunningly nicked the name for his new party). Under FPTP if Reform overtook the Tories here too we would likely follow suit, only PR would likely keep the Tories as an independent party
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Trudeau has been in government for 9 years though and won 3 general elections, in Canada it is just more natural swing of the pendulum. (Of course in 1993 the Canadian Tories got just 2 seats and even Rishi isn't doing that badly yet)
When Trudeau became Liberal Party leader, his party had 35 seats. It's a volatile electorate.
Is this illegal ? Any one know of any one else being convicted of “insider betting” ? A Met investigation is obviously different
Was done to death on the last thread. Basically there's a common law offence of misconduct in public office, max sentence life imprisonment, which means you can have a go at police officers because you don't like the cut of their jib. Yesterday it was decided not to prosecute the detectives in charge of the Stephen Lawrence investigation with this because insufficient evidence. It was crap that anyone even thought the prosecution was a runner. The case against them is unbelievable incompetence, but that's not a crime in other contexts unless someone dies or is injured as a result.
Thanks.
But it’s not against the Gambling Act?
Or take it out of politics if an insider tips you off on the winner of Britain’s got talent and you bet on it are you breaking the law or not ?
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
The country has been fucked by the Tories and I think Labour might contrive to make it WORSE
So, if Reform get in, the worst they can do is be as bad as Labour or the Tories. Meh
Yeah but. You've no evidence Labour would make it worse. That's your feelz. Which is fair enough for me. Emotion is of greater value than logic from my standpoint. However, there is a decent empirical view using the Enlightenment values of Reason, which you cherish so highly that Reform would be a fuckton worse than the Tories. Farage brooks no dissent. And didn't at least put in a shift like Sunak, when he was an MEP. His Party, and the governing Party of the country is a private company owned by him. The candidates haven't been vetted, nor have any experience. The manifesto is the polar opposite on almost everything other than immigration to the views of the very people who will have vote for it. It'd make the last eight years look like an oasis of calm.
OK I will meet you halfway. Yes it is a risk. But then the world right now is full of risk, much of it far worse than a Reform government - from nuclear war to XXXX to climate change to Donald Trump to more pandemics to whatever
And the risk of Reform actually winning a majority of seats is tiny. It's a ten thousand to one shot
I am not a fan of Farage - tho I respect his political skills, and agree with him on immigration - but he'd be a shit prime minister. However he is not going to be PM. What I would like him to do is destroy the Tory party or force it into a merger so we get a real rightwing Opposition that is willing and able to do actual rightwing things. Given that he is very very very unlikely to be PM I am tempted to take the risk and give Reform my vote to thereby achieve my real obective: kill off the feeble wet pseudo-Tories
Or I might vote Starmer for the bantz
The one thing you won't get with Starmer is bantz.
I'd get more bantz phoning the speaking clock. And I'm not sure it's even running anymore.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Trudeau has been in government for 9 years though and won 3 general elections, in Canada it is just more natural swing of the pendulum. (Of course in 1993 the Canadian Tories got just 2 seats and even Rishi isn't doing that badly yet)
The Tories are currently gifting Labour a decade. They probably don't deserve it.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
The country has been fucked by the Tories and I think Labour might contrive to make it WORSE
So, if Reform get in, the worst they can do is be as bad as Labour or the Tories. Meh
Yeah but. You've no evidence Labour would make it worse. That's your feelz. Which is fair enough for me. Emotion is of greater value than logic from my standpoint. However, there is a decent empirical view using the Enlightenment values of Reason, which you cherish so highly that Reform would be a fuckton worse than the Tories. Farage brooks no dissent. And didn't at least put in a shift like Sunak, when he was an MEP. His Party, and the governing Party of the country is a private company owned by him. The candidates haven't been vetted, nor have any experience. The manifesto is the polar opposite on almost everything other than immigration to the views of the very people who will have vote for it. It'd make the last eight years look like an oasis of calm.
OK I will meet you halfway. Yes it is a risk. But then the world right now is full of risk, much of it far worse than a Reform government - from nuclear war to XXXX to climate change to Donald Trump to more pandemics to whatever
And the risk of Reform actually winning a majority of seats is tiny. It's a ten thousand to one shot
I am not a fan of Farage - tho I respect his political skills, and agree with him on immigration - but he'd be a shit prime minister. However he is not going to be PM. What I would like him to do is destroy the Tory party or force it into a merger so we get a real rightwing Opposition that is willing and able to do actual rightwing things. Given that he is very very very unlikely to be PM I am tempted to take the risk and give Reform my vote to thereby achieve my real obective: kill off the feeble wet pseudo-Tories
Or I might vote Starmer for the bantz
Given you live in Camden and Starmer will win by about a million votes to 1 there you may as well vote Reform, just so the left liberal intelligentsia there know there are a few of you about
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Yes, I think that is my 2029 scenario in a nutshell. Farage 2029 isn't nailed on, and a lot can happen in 5 years. But people are mostly voting Labour at the moment to kick the Tories. After five years of tax rises and unwanted immgration, they may well be voting Farage to kick Labour.
Immigration in the first year of the new Labour government will be lower. The student numbers will fall, the unwind from a COVID-19 effect and the effect of a worsening Chinese economy. The numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will be lower.
Starmer won't be able to do a thing about the boat people. He has no ideas, and won't even try Rwanda. Meanwhile, EU governments will start trying versions of Rwanda. He's going to be exposed very quickly
It should also be noted that in 1984 - which is long before Trudeau 2 or the iPhone or whatever - the Liberal Party was defenestrated from government down to one-seventh of the seats, comparable to some of the bad forecasts for the Tories today. The PC Party won three quarters of the seats (211). Nine years later they won 2 seats.
I've hit the 56 bid for their seats. I have two strategies. If it keeps going up, then I am going to average into a simple naked short.
If it starts going down again I'm going to lift the offer on the Lib Dems 50up market (currrently 11 but I wouldn't be lifting it here). This basically would be giving me a put on the Lib Dems with a strike of 50.
I'm also long Labour at 402.
Would love to get involved with other spread markets but none of them make much sense - need things to move. Even the above are partly related to my portfolio but I do believe are reasonable outright bets by themselves. Looks like today I managed to put another £1 on Rishi at 1.55 to keep his own seat heh..
Decent chance we're going to get some decent volatility shortly as normies get more involved
The right prices will get me doing things on Reform or SNP or turnout but I doubt that'll happen. )
For everyone ramping the maverick political operator that is George Galloway, I present to you his result in the 2021 Holyrood election in the constituency I then lived in - 492 votes.
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
Sunak is a really unlucky general. Yesterday he managed to find the only flock of sheep who don't like food. Today, a bent MET officer isn't anything to do with him, but obviously it just all looks bad.
He's both an unlucky general and a bad general, which is a very unfortunate combination for everyone bar his opponents.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Yes, I think that is my 2029 scenario in a nutshell. Farage 2029 isn't nailed on, and a lot can happen in 5 years. But people are mostly voting Labour at the moment to kick the Tories. After five years of tax rises and unwanted immgration, they may well be voting Farage to kick Labour.
Immigration in the first year of the new Labour government will be lower. The student numbers will fall, the unwind from a COVID-19 effect and the effect of a worsening Chinese economy. The numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will be lower.
Starmer won't be able to do a thing about the boat people. He has no ideas, and won't even try Rwanda. Meanwhile, EU governments will start trying versions of Rwanda. He's going to be exposed very quickly
Net migration might drop a bit initially but he won't benefit because The Boats and The Vibe.
He'll have Labour MPs galore inundating the airwaves arguing we simply can't get enough of it and should have "safe routes".
Don't know why anyone who doesn't need a postal vote would apply for one. It's a bit like walking out of a football game after 60 minutes, or watching half a movie and writing a review.
You can use it to vote on the day by taking it to any polling station.
So why not just go and vote instead?
Because you have a postal vote.
Once you have a postal vote what's the point in applying for it to be changed to a traditional vote ?
You can vote early if you want or need to but can still take it down to a polling booth if you want the exercise or sense of occasion.
Okay, you might miss out on the little booth in a portakabin experience but how many people are bothered about that ?
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
The country has been fucked by the Tories and I think Labour might contrive to make it WORSE
So, if Reform get in, the worst they can do is be as bad as Labour or the Tories. Meh
Yeah but. You've no evidence Labour would make it worse. That's your feelz. Which is fair enough for me. Emotion is of greater value than logic from my standpoint. However, there is a decent empirical view using the Enlightenment values of Reason, which you cherish so highly that Reform would be a fuckton worse than the Tories. Farage brooks no dissent. And didn't at least put in a shift like Sunak, when he was an MEP. His Party, and the governing Party of the country is a private company owned by him. The candidates haven't been vetted, nor have any experience. The manifesto is the polar opposite on almost everything other than immigration to the views of the very people who will have vote for it. It'd make the last eight years look like an oasis of calm.
OK I will meet you halfway. Yes it is a risk. But then the world right now is full of risk, much of it far worse than a Reform government - from nuclear war to XXXX to climate change to Donald Trump to more pandemics to whatever
And the risk of Reform actually winning a majority of seats is tiny. It's a ten thousand to one shot
I am not a fan of Farage - tho I respect his political skills, and agree with him on immigration - but he'd be a shit prime minister. However he is not going to be PM. What I would like him to do is destroy the Tory party or force it into a merger so we get a real rightwing Opposition that is willing and able to do actual rightwing things. Given that he is very very very unlikely to be PM I am tempted to take the risk and give Reform my vote to thereby achieve my real obective: kill off the feeble wet pseudo-Tories
Or I might vote Starmer for the bantz
You're in Starmer's constituency, aren't you? SKS says he doesn't mind if you "take the risk" and give Reform your vote.
Looking at the YouGov data further, there are only 30 seats that YouGov are predicting as safe for the Cons (I think this is a 10% or more lead).
The highest predicted Con vote share is 45% in Wetherby and Easingwold The safest seats look like being Rurland and Stamford, Arundel and South Downs, and New Forest West, which will all still have around 10k majorities due to evenly divided opposition between Lab, LD and Reform
One thing that unites these seats is they were all fairly close to the national vote on Brexit (anywhere too remain is threatened by the LDs, anywhere too Brexity by Reform)
Don't know why anyone who doesn't need a postal vote would apply for one. It's a bit like walking out of a football game after 60 minutes, or watching half a movie and writing a review.
You can use it to vote on the day by taking it to any polling station.
So why not just go and vote instead?
I have a postal vote because of past experience of nearly missing out on GE 2010 because I was away in Africa working. I have kept it since as it means that I can vote at my convenience rather than at the convenience of the authorities.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
The country has been fucked by the Tories and I think Labour might contrive to make it WORSE
So, if Reform get in, the worst they can do is be as bad as Labour or the Tories. Meh
Yeah but. You've no evidence Labour would make it worse. That's your feelz. Which is fair enough for me. Emotion is of greater value than logic from my standpoint. However, there is a decent empirical view using the Enlightenment values of Reason, which you cherish so highly that Reform would be a fuckton worse than the Tories. Farage brooks no dissent. And didn't at least put in a shift like Sunak, when he was an MEP. His Party, and the governing Party of the country is a private company owned by him. The candidates haven't been vetted, nor have any experience. The manifesto is the polar opposite on almost everything other than immigration to the views of the very people who will have vote for it. It'd make the last eight years look like an oasis of calm.
OK I will meet you halfway. Yes it is a risk. But then the world right now is full of risk, much of it far worse than a Reform government - from nuclear war to XXXX to climate change to Donald Trump to more pandemics to whatever
And the risk of Reform actually winning a majority of seats is tiny. It's a ten thousand to one shot
I am not a fan of Farage - tho I respect his political skills, and agree with him on immigration - but he'd be a shit prime minister. However he is not going to be PM. What I would like him to do is destroy the Tory party or force it into a merger so we get a real rightwing Opposition that is willing and able to do actual rightwing things. Given that he is very very very unlikely to be PM I am tempted to take the risk and give Reform my vote to thereby achieve my real obective: kill off the feeble wet pseudo-Tories
Or I might vote Starmer for the bantz
Given you live in Camden and Starmer will win by about a million votes to 1 there you may as well vote Reform, just so the left liberal intelligentsia there know there are a few of you about
The left liberal "intelligentsia" couldn't give a fuck mate.
What they lack in intelligence they make up for with pomposity, though.
Don't know why anyone who doesn't need a postal vote would apply for one. It's a bit like walking out of a football game after 60 minutes, or watching half a movie and writing a review.
You can use it to vote on the day by taking it to any polling station.
So why not just go and vote instead?
Because if you're someone like me who travels a lot, often at short notice, a postal vote gives you the choice of either
If I am in town on the day of the election I like to take my postal vote to the ballot box, to get a sense of voting, and be part of the democratic process, in a tiny way. I enjoy the modest theatre. If I suddenly learn a week before the vote that I'm gonna be abroad, I post it
I see we're at the "praise George Galloway's intellect" stage of the ramping
If you think Galloway is stupid then you are the stupid one. He doesn't constantly win by-elections by sheer luck. He's cunning, clever, rutheless and a really good orator. And I DETEST his quasi-Islamist politics
Unlike Farage, he actually fights a ground campaign.
Farage strikes me as someone who'll stack up votes across the country spread like butter but, with no seats. No data. No activists. No organisation.
But.. I could be wrong and an earthquake is coming.
Doubt it though.
The question is whether the social media campaign trumps the ground campaign. What's more important in 2024, a knock on the door from an activist, or a friend on social media coming out for reform?
Looking at the YouGov data further, there are only 30 seats that YouGov are predicting as safe for the Cons (I think this is a 10% or more lead).
The highest predicted Con vote share is 45% in Wetherby and Easingwold The safest seats look like being Rurland and Stamford, Arundel and South Downs, and New Forest West, which will all still have around 10k majorities due to evenly divided opposition between Lab, LD and Reform
One thing that unites these seats is they were all fairly close to the national vote on Brexit (anywhere too remain is threatened by the LDs, anywhere too Brexity by Reform)
Hence I have Alicia Kearns as next leader. If the Tories are down to a dozen or so she will be one of the few survivors, and could represent the sane wing of the party in any leadership contest. 101 at Bet 365 for next leader.
Anything going on with the Worker's Party of Britain? One would think the Reform rise would be eye opening for them, as I get the impression Galloway and advocates think they are a party advocating popular positions, rather than a small group of cranks who got lucky at a by-election.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
The country has been fucked by the Tories and I think Labour might contrive to make it WORSE
So, if Reform get in, the worst they can do is be as bad as Labour or the Tories. Meh
Yeah but. You've no evidence Labour would make it worse. That's your feelz. Which is fair enough for me. Emotion is of greater value than logic from my standpoint. However, there is a decent empirical view using the Enlightenment values of Reason, which you cherish so highly that Reform would be a fuckton worse than the Tories. Farage brooks no dissent. And didn't at least put in a shift like Sunak, when he was an MEP. His Party, and the governing Party of the country is a private company owned by him. The candidates haven't been vetted, nor have any experience. The manifesto is the polar opposite on almost everything other than immigration to the views of the very people who will have vote for it. It'd make the last eight years look like an oasis of calm.
OK I will meet you halfway. Yes it is a risk. But then the world right now is full of risk, much of it far worse than a Reform government - from nuclear war to XXXX to climate change to Donald Trump to more pandemics to whatever
And the risk of Reform actually winning a majority of seats is tiny. It's a ten thousand to one shot
I am not a fan of Farage - tho I respect his political skills, and agree with him on immigration - but he'd be a shit prime minister. However he is not going to be PM. What I would like him to do is destroy the Tory party or force it into a merger so we get a real rightwing Opposition that is willing and able to do actual rightwing things. Given that he is very very very unlikely to be PM I am tempted to take the risk and give Reform my vote to thereby achieve my real obective: kill off the feeble wet pseudo-Tories
Or I might vote Starmer for the bantz
What 'right-wing' things would you want them to do ?
A few weeks ago you were supporting unrestricted FoM from the EU again.
And predicting mass unemployment from the introduction of AI.
Looking at the YouGov data further, there are only 30 seats that YouGov are predicting as safe for the Cons (I think this is a 10% or more lead).
The highest predicted Con vote share is 45% in Wetherby and Easingwold The safest seats look like being Rurland and Stamford, Arundel and South Downs, and New Forest West, which will all still have around 10k majorities due to evenly divided opposition between Lab, LD and Reform
One thing that unites these seats is they were all fairly close to the national vote on Brexit (anywhere too remain is threatened by the LDs, anywhere too Brexity by Reform)
Hence I have Alicia Kearns as next leader. If the Tories are down to a dozen or so she will be one of the few survivors, and could represent the sane wing of the party in any leadership contest. 101 at Bet 365 for next leader.
If they are down to a dozen they just wither and die I think. Why keep going at that point?
I don't think they have the stamina of the Liberals to keep going for decades in that position.
Is this illegal ? Any one know of any one else being convicted of “insider betting” ? A Met investigation is obviously different
My understanding is that a wager/bet is a form of contract based on a future uncertain event. The event must be both in the future, and uncertain. So, if the policeman overheard something, or was told something, which meant that the future event was no longer uncertain, then the bet is voidable by the other party - presumably the poor honest hardworking bookie.
The problem for the policeman is that in attempting to place the bet, he was acting dishonestly - he knew that the event was no longer uncertain, but pretended that it was. So the Met might well come down on him like a ton of bricks.
The suspected offence here is apparently "misconduct in public office", rather than anything betting specific. If there were such a law presumably they'd have mentioned that too.
Also, just found that the Gambling Commission have a "misuse of inside information" pdf on this web page: https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/licensees-and-businesses/guide/page/important-documents -- it lays out a spectrum from "Art of Betting" through various kinds of awareness of inside information through to outright cheating to manipulate the event. Even stuff like "an employee working on a television competition (eg TV talent or reality competitions) with advance knowledge of the health of a competitor, participation in a TV show or of early phone results" only gets employer sanctions and the bet contractually voided.
Interesting !
They suggest “restricted information” is NOT ILLEGAL but against company policies and bookie T&Cs
Don't know why anyone who doesn't need a postal vote would apply for one. It's a bit like walking out of a football game after 60 minutes, or watching half a movie and writing a review.
You can use it to vote on the day by taking it to any polling station.
So why not just go and vote instead?
Because you have a postal vote.
Once you have a postal vote what's the point in applying for it to be changed to a traditional vote ?
You can vote early if you want or need to but can still take it down to a polling booth if you want the exercise or sense of occasion.
Okay, you might miss out on the little booth in a portakabin experience but how many people are bothered about that ?
Next you'll be suggesting you could just press a button on your phone. Then where would the 300 election-night hacks be? Eh?
Won't someone think of the 24hr rolling news teams?
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Yes, I think that is my 2029 scenario in a nutshell. Farage 2029 isn't nailed on, and a lot can happen in 5 years. But people are mostly voting Labour at the moment to kick the Tories. After five years of tax rises and unwanted immgration, they may well be voting Farage to kick Labour.
Immigration in the first year of the new Labour government will be lower. The student numbers will fall, the unwind from a COVID-19 effect and the effect of a worsening Chinese economy. The numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will be lower.
Starmer won't be able to do a thing about the boat people. He has no ideas, and won't even try Rwanda. Meanwhile, EU governments will start trying versions of Rwanda. He's going to be exposed very quickly
Net migration might drop a bit initially but he won't benefit because The Boats and The Vibe.
He'll have Labour MPs galore inundating the airwaves arguing we simply can't get enough of it and should have "safe routes".
Yep. Exactly right. Immmigration and the boat people is gonna be a huge migraine for Starmer from day one. Plus all the universities are run by lefty academics and they will demand more foreign students, and he will have all the lefty NGOs demanding more generosity for visas and dependants - and with his huge majority he will have at least 100 hard left MPs giving him grief for not opening the borders even wider
Those who think migration is gonna disappear as an issue are deluded. It will get WORSE under Labour, at least in perception, and the right wing media will attack him with brutality and relish
I see we're at the "praise George Galloway's intellect" stage of the ramping
If you think Galloway is stupid then you are the stupid one. He doesn't constantly win by-elections by sheer luck. He's cunning, clever, rutheless and a really good orator. And I DETEST his quasi-Islamist politics
Unlike Farage, he actually fights a ground campaign.
Farage strikes me as someone who'll stack up votes across the country spread like butter but, with no seats. No data. No activists. No organisation.
But.. I could be wrong and an earthquake is coming.
Doubt it though.
The question is whether the social media campaign trumps the ground campaign. What's more important in 2024, a knock on the door from an activist, or a friend on social media coming out for reform?
Dunno. I've heard enough anecdotes about people plumping for Reform though, including amongst work colleagues and family, now, to think they might be a bit of value.
Looking at the YouGov data further, there are only 30 seats that YouGov are predicting as safe for the Cons (I think this is a 10% or more lead).
The highest predicted Con vote share is 45% in Wetherby and Easingwold The safest seats look like being Rurland and Stamford, Arundel and South Downs, and New Forest West, which will all still have around 10k majorities due to evenly divided opposition between Lab, LD and Reform
One thing that unites these seats is they were all fairly close to the national vote on Brexit (anywhere too remain is threatened by the LDs, anywhere too Brexity by Reform)
Hence I have Alicia Kearns as next leader. If the Tories are down to a dozen or so she will be one of the few survivors, and could represent the sane wing of the party in any leadership contest. 101 at Bet 365 for next leader.
If they are down to a dozen they just wither and die I think. Why keep going at that point?
I don't think they have the stamina of the Liberals to keep going for decades in that position.
And even the Liberals ended up merging with the SDP under FPTP in the end
I mean, yeah, it's been that way for years, it's just in overdrive this time around.
To be fair to Con Home it regularly features non-Tories, usually remainers kicked out by Boris.
That's true (and there are harder right blogs), though it was the second sentence that really struck me, as many Tories have for years pined for Farage even as he has spent decades undercutting them whenever he could.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
A Conservative Party spokesman told the BBC: “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals.
How many have been betting on this? Even if it was just people who work in politics having a punt, are we going to have to have a rule like the footballers, no betting on your sector.
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Yes, I think that is my 2029 scenario in a nutshell. Farage 2029 isn't nailed on, and a lot can happen in 5 years. But people are mostly voting Labour at the moment to kick the Tories. After five years of tax rises and unwanted immgration, they may well be voting Farage to kick Labour.
Immigration in the first year of the new Labour government will be lower. The student numbers will fall, the unwind from a COVID-19 effect and the effect of a worsening Chinese economy. The numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will be lower.
Starmer won't be able to do a thing about the boat people. He has no ideas, and won't even try Rwanda. Meanwhile, EU governments will start trying versions of Rwanda. He's going to be exposed very quickly
Net migration might drop a bit initially but he won't benefit because The Boats and The Vibe.
He'll have Labour MPs galore inundating the airwaves arguing we simply can't get enough of it and should have "safe routes".
He has a whole autumn and winter first, as the weather makes crossings harder.
Let’s see what they do. Yvette Cooper has had years to plan and presumably some time to build up relationships with the French authorities. It’ll be her number one priority.
Partly the numbers will be a function of numbers crossing into Southern Europe this year, as that fills the hopper for the next season. I’ve not seen stats on that yet.
I see we're at the "praise George Galloway's intellect" stage of the ramping
If you think Galloway is stupid then you are the stupid one. He doesn't constantly win by-elections by sheer luck. He's cunning, clever, rutheless and a really good orator. And I DETEST his quasi-Islamist politics
Unlike Farage, he actually fights a ground campaign.
Farage strikes me as someone who'll stack up votes across the country spread like butter but, with no seats. No data. No activists. No organisation.
But.. I could be wrong and an earthquake is coming.
Doubt it though.
I think UKIP/Brexit/Reform have been very interesting that way. They've almost but not quite managed to break through on mostly online and tv attention, hoping to pile up enough votes to succeed across the country in lots of places.
They've not reached that height before, but I can believe they will at last get a notable number at last (say about 3-5, notable being more than 1), purely because the Tories are doing so abysmally. However the chances of another epic failure cannot be discounted.
It doesn't really do the Tories many favours, since the damage to them can be done even if Reform do not benefit in terms of representation, but it could be significant in terms of the recovery, as to whether the fight is taken to Reform or they are capitulated to.
I see we're at the "praise George Galloway's intellect" stage of the ramping
If you think Galloway is stupid then you are the stupid one. He doesn't constantly win by-elections by sheer luck. He's cunning, clever, rutheless and a really good orator. And I DETEST his quasi-Islamist politics
I don't think anyone could say Galloway isn't clever. Genuinely evil though. Which is why he wins byelections. He runs with stuff other far left politicians don't, because they do have some ethics and don't want to deliberately stir up racial hatred. Even if their stupidity sometimes has ill-effects.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
The country has been fucked by the Tories and I think Labour might contrive to make it WORSE
So, if Reform get in, the worst they can do is be as bad as Labour or the Tories. Meh
Yeah but. You've no evidence Labour would make it worse. That's your feelz. Which is fair enough for me. Emotion is of greater value than logic from my standpoint. However, there is a decent empirical view using the Enlightenment values of Reason, which you cherish so highly that Reform would be a fuckton worse than the Tories. Farage brooks no dissent. And didn't at least put in a shift like Sunak, when he was an MEP. His Party, and the governing Party of the country is a private company owned by him. The candidates haven't been vetted, nor have any experience. The manifesto is the polar opposite on almost everything other than immigration to the views of the very people who will have vote for it. It'd make the last eight years look like an oasis of calm.
OK I will meet you halfway. Yes it is a risk. But then the world right now is full of risk, much of it far worse than a Reform government - from nuclear war to XXXX to climate change to Donald Trump to more pandemics to whatever
And the risk of Reform actually winning a majority of seats is tiny. It's a ten thousand to one shot
I am not a fan of Farage - tho I respect his political skills, and agree with him on immigration - but he'd be a shit prime minister. However he is not going to be PM. What I would like him to do is destroy the Tory party or force it into a merger so we get a real rightwing Opposition that is willing and able to do actual rightwing things. Given that he is very very very unlikely to be PM I am tempted to take the risk and give Reform my vote to thereby achieve my real obective: kill off the feeble wet pseudo-Tories
Or I might vote Starmer for the bantz
The one thing you won't get with Starmer is bantz.
I'd get more bantz phoning the speaking clock. And I'm not sure it's even running anymore.
Bantz-free government would make a nice change tbh.
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
Faragasm?
Better than Faragegasm, but the gasm has already been used for Nick. Farorgy better conveys the phenomenon of hordes of Reform-curious Tories stripping off and attempting to join in the fun.
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
There are few things one can confidently predict about this 2024 UK General Election, but nonetheless I feel mightily confident that the word "Farorgy" will never be used by anyone, except as a means of personally embarassing you
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
And yet it has the strange whiff of 2016, when the establishment media were telling us all that remain was a slam dunk. I recall being able to get 5/1 on Leave on the night.
Farage as PM is obviously preposterous, but this does have a feel like 2016, and something in the MSM won't pick up on quickly, because the MSM is all bien pensant left or right wing, take your pick - Farage remains beyond the cordon sanitaire for most middle class journos.
I would be watching what the Mail and the Express do, if they decidedly break for Farage in the next week or so, something big is up. Not big enough to make Farage PM, but big enough to make him LOTO. They know who their audience are.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Although the parallels are tenuous. The Canadian Conservative meltdown was 31 years ago. Trudeau won his majority nine years ago.
My point is it shows that westerm electorates are now massively more volatile than they were. Party loyalties are breaking down across the West, and even governments with big majorities can be destroyed in months
Next step, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan.
But you raise an interesting point - we know the Tories are a very old party, even Labour are a very old party, but how do they compare to other places as the big two (or whatever the traditional number of big mainstream parties is)?
I know in places like Greece and France the traditional leftist options have been eclipsed in recent decades, but is that a common experience, and is it repeated across the right or have they been better at holding on?
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
A Conservative Party spokesman told the BBC: “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals.
How many have been betting on this? Even if it was just people who work in politics having a punt, are we going to have to have a rule like the footballers, no betting on your sector.
Hope not.
What is political betting for?
If it's, essentially, a fun game - well fun games are fine do what you want, try to outsmart everyone else. If it's a prediction market - well a prediction market will predict odds better the more inside information that is allowed, due to price discovery. If it's for hedging, ditto
Key thing is that it's made clear to all participants that anyone can be an insider. So long as it is, have at it.
Anyone know how to find out if Betfair have forwarded my details to the gambling commission? GDPR request? I'm going to make more than the £199 out the election date once the market is settled, but ofc it isn't (and also my bet was on the quarterly). I have nothing to worry about in my case but there's a principle thing here.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Yes, I think that is my 2029 scenario in a nutshell. Farage 2029 isn't nailed on, and a lot can happen in 5 years. But people are mostly voting Labour at the moment to kick the Tories. After five years of tax rises and unwanted immgration, they may well be voting Farage to kick Labour.
Immigration in the first year of the new Labour government will be lower. The student numbers will fall, the unwind from a COVID-19 effect and the effect of a worsening Chinese economy. The numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will be lower.
Starmer won't be able to do a thing about the boat people. He has no ideas, and won't even try Rwanda. Meanwhile, EU governments will start trying versions of Rwanda. He's going to be exposed very quickly
Net migration might drop a bit initially but he won't benefit because The Boats and The Vibe.
He'll have Labour MPs galore inundating the airwaves arguing we simply can't get enough of it and should have "safe routes".
He has a whole autumn and winter first, as the weather makes crossings harder.
Let’s see what they do. Yvette Cooper has had years to plan and presumably some time to build up relationships with the French authorities. It’ll be her number one priority.
Partly the numbers will be a function of numbers crossing into Southern Europe this year, as that fills the hopper for the next season. I’ve not seen stats on that yet.
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
And yet it has the strange whiff of 2016, when the establishment media were telling us all that remain was a slam dunk. I recall being able to get 5/1 on Leave on the night.
Farage as PM is obviously preposterous, but this does have a feel like 2016, and something in the MSM won't pick up on quickly, because the MSM is all bien pensant left or right wing, take your pick - Farage remains beyond the cordon sanitaire for most middle class journos.
I would be watching what the Mail and the Express do, if they decidedly break for Farage in the next week or so, something big is up. Not big enough to make Farage PM, but big enough to make him LOTO. They know who their audience are.
I got 14/1 on Leave as the polls closed. Kept riding that all night.
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
And yet it has the strange whiff of 2016, when the establishment media were telling us all that remain was a slam dunk. I recall being able to get 5/1 on Leave on the night.
Farage as PM is obviously preposterous, but this does have a feel like 2016, and something in the MSM won't pick up on quickly, because the MSM is all bien pensant left or right wing, take your pick - Farage remains beyond the cordon sanitaire for most middle class journos.
I would be watching what the Mail and the Express do, if they decidedly break for Farage in the next week or so, something big is up. Not big enough to make Farage PM, but big enough to make him LOTO. They know who their audience are.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Yes, I think that is my 2029 scenario in a nutshell. Farage 2029 isn't nailed on, and a lot can happen in 5 years. But people are mostly voting Labour at the moment to kick the Tories. After five years of tax rises and unwanted immgration, they may well be voting Farage to kick Labour.
Immigration in the first year of the new Labour government will be lower. The student numbers will fall, the unwind from a COVID-19 effect and the effect of a worsening Chinese economy. The numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will be lower.
Starmer won't be able to do a thing about the boat people. He has no ideas, and won't even try Rwanda. Meanwhile, EU governments will start trying versions of Rwanda. He's going to be exposed very quickly
Net migration might drop a bit initially but he won't benefit because The Boats and The Vibe.
He'll have Labour MPs galore inundating the airwaves arguing we simply can't get enough of it and should have "safe routes".
He has a whole autumn and winter first, as the weather makes crossings harder.
Let’s see what they do. Yvette Cooper has had years to plan and presumably some time to build up relationships with the French authorities. It’ll be her number one priority.
Partly the numbers will be a function of numbers crossing into Southern Europe this year, as that fills the hopper for the next season. I’ve not seen stats on that yet.
To answer my own question, the Workers Party are standing in 152 seats and the SDP in 122 seats - who the heck is paying for that, and how did two zombie parties even organise it?
According to wiki the Heritage Party (right wing cranks) have 41 candidates and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (left wing cranks - no, the other ones) have 40, which is pretty impressive.
Even the joke that is the Yorkshire party have stood more than UKIP.
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
Faragasm?
Faruption!
Farage is just a hard word to turn into a neologism, especially with its second syllable stress
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
And yet it has the strange whiff of 2016, when the establishment media were telling us all that remain was a slam dunk. I recall being able to get 5/1 on Leave on the night.
Farage as PM is obviously preposterous, but this does have a feel like 2016, and something in the MSM won't pick up on quickly, because the MSM is all bien pensant left or right wing, take your pick - Farage remains beyond the cordon sanitaire for most middle class journos.
I would be watching what the Mail and the Express do, if they decidedly break for Farage in the next week or so, something big is up. Not big enough to make Farage PM, but big enough to make him LOTO. They know who their audience are.
In 2016 several polls showed leave ahead, so it was always competitive. There were respectable politicians from all the main parties on the leave side. The polling surprise was about 2 or 3 points, largely I think driven by differential turnout. Similar to the Trump surprise. Both more a case of punters not believing what the polls were suggesting was possible, rather than polls being massively out.
UKIP had been scoring significant wins in real elections for years beforehand. Reform completely crashed and burned in the May locals this year and ended up way below their polling.
And Farage’s signature policy, Brexit, is more unpopular than ever. He has room to grow into the Tory vote share and cannibalise it but beyond that he’s running into voters who hate him.
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Comments
Two cheeks of the same arse. Of course they'd ramp each other. Many of the WPGB candidates and Reform ones are a bit interchangeable in terms of being cranks with 'interesting' views.
And the risk of Reform actually winning a majority of seats is tiny. It's a ten thousand to one shot
I am not a fan of Farage - tho I respect his political skills, and agree with him on immigration - but he'd be a shit prime minister. However he is not going to be PM. What I would like him to do is destroy the Tory party or force it into a merger so we get a real rightwing Opposition that is willing and able to do actual rightwing things. Given that he is very very very unlikely to be PM I am tempted to take the risk and give Reform my vote to thereby achieve my real obective: kill off the feeble wet pseudo-Tories
Or I might vote Starmer for the bantz
Farage strikes me as someone who'll stack up votes across the country spread like butter but, with no seats. No data. No activists. No organisation.
But.. I could be wrong and an earthquake is coming.
Doubt it though.
But it’s not against the Gambling Act?
Or take it out of politics if an insider tips you off on the winner of Britain’s got talent and you bet on it are you breaking the law or not ?
I'd get more bantz phoning the speaking clock. And I'm not sure it's even running anymore.
I've hit the 56 bid for their seats. I have two strategies. If it keeps going up, then I am going to average into a simple naked short.
If it starts going down again I'm going to lift the offer on the Lib Dems 50up market (currrently 11 but I wouldn't be lifting it here). This basically would be giving me a put on the Lib Dems with a strike of 50.
I'm also long Labour at 402.
Would love to get involved with other spread markets but none of them make much sense - need things to move. Even the above are partly related to my portfolio but I do believe are reasonable outright bets by themselves. Looks like today I managed to put another £1 on Rishi at 1.55 to keep his own seat heh..
Decent chance we're going to get some decent volatility shortly as normies get more involved
The right prices will get me doing things on Reform or SNP or turnout but I doubt that'll happen.
)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ettrick,_Roxburgh_and_Berwickshire_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)
He's an epic chancer, and is only down in England trying his luck now because people in Scotland have got his number.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
Edit: Nevermind just found it
He'll have Labour MPs galore inundating the airwaves arguing we simply can't get enough of it and should have "safe routes".
Once you have a postal vote what's the point in applying for it to be changed to a traditional vote ?
You can vote early if you want or need to but can still take it down to a polling booth if you want the exercise or sense of occasion.
Okay, you might miss out on the little booth in a portakabin experience but how many people are bothered about that ?
The highest predicted Con vote share is 45% in Wetherby and Easingwold
The safest seats look like being Rurland and Stamford, Arundel and South Downs, and New Forest West, which will all still have around 10k majorities due to evenly divided opposition between Lab, LD and Reform
One thing that unites these seats is they were all fairly close to the national vote on Brexit (anywhere too remain is threatened by the LDs, anywhere too Brexity by Reform)
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/boris-johnson-tories-votes-general-election-mxvwdwl20
Though it would be pretty amusing if his party ended up round about where they were before he took charge - what a rollercoaster ride.
What they lack in intelligence they make up for with pomposity, though.
If I am in town on the day of the election I like to take my postal vote to the ballot box, to get a sense of voting, and be part of the democratic process, in a tiny way. I enjoy the modest theatre. If I suddenly learn a week before the vote that I'm gonna be abroad, I post it
A few weeks ago you were supporting unrestricted FoM from the EU again.
And predicting mass unemployment from the introduction of AI.
I don't think they have the stamina of the Liberals to keep going for decades in that position.
They suggest “restricted information” is NOT ILLEGAL but against company policies and bookie T&Cs
Won't someone think of the 24hr rolling news teams?
Those who think migration is gonna disappear as an issue are deluded. It will get WORSE under Labour, at least in perception, and the right wing media will attack him with brutality and relish
Much to my chagrin.
BREAKING: A second Tory candidate, Laura Saunders, is being investigated by the Gambling Commission over a bet placed on the election date
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1803542917111488709
Was the 'early' election all a way of ensuring some Tories bagged a few quid off the bookies before getting the boot?
How many have been betting on this? Even if it was just people who work in politics having a punt, are we going to have to have a rule like the footballers, no betting on your sector.
This is a poll which threatens to transform British politics. Of COURSE we are overreacting. It's what we DO
Let’s see what they do. Yvette Cooper has had years to plan and presumably some time to build up relationships with the French authorities. It’ll be her number one priority.
Partly the numbers will be a function of numbers crossing into Southern Europe this year, as that fills the hopper for the next season. I’ve not seen stats on that yet.
They've not reached that height before, but I can believe they will at last get a notable number at last (say about 3-5, notable being more than 1), purely because the Tories are doing so abysmally. However the chances of another epic failure cannot be discounted.
It doesn't really do the Tories many favours, since the damage to them can be done even if Reform do not benefit in terms of representation, but it could be significant in terms of the recovery, as to whether the fight is taken to Reform or they are capitulated to.
ToryReformer.Farage as PM is obviously preposterous, but this does have a feel like 2016, and something in the MSM won't pick up on quickly, because the MSM is all bien pensant left or right wing, take your pick - Farage remains beyond the cordon sanitaire for most middle class journos.
I would be watching what the Mail and the Express do, if they decidedly break for Farage in the next week or so, something big is up. Not big enough to make Farage PM, but big enough to make him LOTO. They know who their audience are.
But you raise an interesting point - we know the Tories are a very old party, even Labour are a very old party, but how do they compare to other places as the big two (or whatever the traditional number of big mainstream parties is)?
I know in places like Greece and France the traditional leftist options have been eclipsed in recent decades, but is that a common experience, and is it repeated across the right or have they been better at holding on?
What is political betting for?
If it's, essentially, a fun game - well fun games are fine do what you want, try to outsmart everyone else.
If it's a prediction market - well a prediction market will predict odds better the more inside information that is allowed, due to price discovery.
If it's for hedging, ditto
Key thing is that it's made clear to all participants that anyone can be an insider. So long as it is, have at it.
Anyone know how to find out if Betfair have forwarded my details to the gambling commission? GDPR request? I'm going to make more than the £199 out the election date once the market is settled, but ofc it isn't (and also my bet was on the quarterly). I have nothing to worry about in my case but there's a principle thing here.
I feel better already.
Farage is definitely winning the meaningless personal anecdata war
She's a candidate (or rather, to all intents and purposes, she was a candidate).
According to wiki the Heritage Party (right wing cranks) have 41 candidates and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (left wing cranks - no, the other ones) have 40, which is pretty impressive.
Even the joke that is the Yorkshire party have stood more than UKIP.
The Nige-quake?
That's not bad
UKIP had been scoring significant wins in real elections for years beforehand. Reform completely crashed and burned in the May locals this year and ended up way below their polling.
And Farage’s signature policy, Brexit, is more unpopular than ever. He has room to grow into the Tory vote share and cannibalise it but beyond that he’s running into voters who hate him.
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1)
PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9)
Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5)
Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5)
Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3)
Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8)
Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.