"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Yes, I think that is my 2029 scenario in a nutshell. Farage 2029 isn't nailed on, and a lot can happen in 5 years. But people are mostly voting Labour at the moment to kick the Tories. After five years of tax rises and unwanted immgration, they may well be voting Farage to kick Labour.
Immigration in the first year of the new Labour government will be lower. The student numbers will fall, the unwind from a COVID-19 effect and the effect of a worsening Chinese economy. The numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will be lower.
Starmer won't be able to do a thing about the boat people. He has no ideas, and won't even try Rwanda. Meanwhile, EU governments will start trying versions of Rwanda. He's going to be exposed very quickly
Net migration might drop a bit initially but he won't benefit because The Boats and The Vibe.
He'll have Labour MPs galore inundating the airwaves arguing we simply can't get enough of it and should have "safe routes".
He has a whole autumn and winter first, as the weather makes crossings harder.
Let’s see what they do. Yvette Cooper has had years to plan and presumably some time to build up relationships with the French authorities. It’ll be her number one priority.
Partly the numbers will be a function of numbers crossing into Southern Europe this year, as that fills the hopper for the next season. I’ve not seen stats on that yet.
She's someone who could lose her seat in a full Tory collapse.
My Tory brother in law is voting reform. Silly sod.
As of tonight, two members of my fam have switched from Tory to Reform
Farage is definitely winning the meaningless personal anecdata war
By contrast. (I'm by some distance the most right wing member of my family. That includes my 83 yo Mother). I'm having serious trouble trying to keep mine on board with a Labour vote. They're convinced it's in the bag and can indulge themselves. I'm not convinced at all. Grrr! Aaaah!
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
Faragasm?
Faruption!
Farage is just a hard word to turn into a neologism, especially with its second syllable stress
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
The country has been fucked by the Tories and I think Labour might contrive to make it WORSE
So, if Reform get in, the worst they can do is be as bad as Labour or the Tories. Meh
Yeah but. You've no evidence Labour would make it worse. That's your feelz. Which is fair enough for me. Emotion is of greater value than logic from my standpoint. However, there is a decent empirical view using the Enlightenment values of Reason, which you cherish so highly that Reform would be a fuckton worse than the Tories. Farage brooks no dissent. And didn't at least put in a shift like Sunak, when he was an MEP. His Party, and the governing Party of the country is a private company owned by him. The candidates haven't been vetted, nor have any experience. The manifesto is the polar opposite on almost everything other than immigration to the views of the very people who will have vote for it. It'd make the last eight years look like an oasis of calm.
OK I will meet you halfway. Yes it is a risk. But then the world right now is full of risk, much of it far worse than a Reform government - from nuclear war to XXXX to climate change to Donald Trump to more pandemics to whatever
And the risk of Reform actually winning a majority of seats is tiny. It's a ten thousand to one shot
I am not a fan of Farage - tho I respect his political skills, and agree with him on immigration - but he'd be a shit prime minister. However he is not going to be PM. What I would like him to do is destroy the Tory party or force it into a merger so we get a real rightwing Opposition that is willing and able to do actual rightwing things. Given that he is very very very unlikely to be PM I am tempted to take the risk and give Reform my vote to thereby achieve my real obective: kill off the feeble wet pseudo-Tories
Or I might vote Starmer for the bantz
The one thing you won't get with Starmer is bantz.
I'd get more bantz phoning the speaking clock. And I'm not sure it's even running anymore.
Bantz-free government would make a nice change tbh.
Sunak is scarcely the rebel bantzmeister.
In my investment management days there were clients who specified no alcohol/tobacco/gambling. Given his pathetic head-boy-sucking-up-to-the-grownups assaults on the first two, I am delighted to see him come a cropper on the third.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Galloway? 🤣
Having declined my bet (I accept you can’t get with everyone by the way) presumably you will now be hammering the 15-1 available on Reform win sans Labour?
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
Faragasm?
Faruption!
Farage is just a hard word to turn into a neologism, especially with its second syllable stress
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Thing is. And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform. But imagine a thought experiment. Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins? July 5th we have PM Farage. What then? An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound. Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending. An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been an MP. Most won't have been Councillors. I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests. Etc., etc. NB. The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau
Yes, I think that is my 2029 scenario in a nutshell. Farage 2029 isn't nailed on, and a lot can happen in 5 years. But people are mostly voting Labour at the moment to kick the Tories. After five years of tax rises and unwanted immgration, they may well be voting Farage to kick Labour.
Immigration in the first year of the new Labour government will be lower. The student numbers will fall, the unwind from a COVID-19 effect and the effect of a worsening Chinese economy. The numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will be lower.
Starmer won't be able to do a thing about the boat people. He has no ideas, and won't even try Rwanda. Meanwhile, EU governments will start trying versions of Rwanda. He's going to be exposed very quickly
Net migration might drop a bit initially but he won't benefit because The Boats and The Vibe.
He'll have Labour MPs galore inundating the airwaves arguing we simply can't get enough of it and should have "safe routes".
He has a whole autumn and winter first, as the weather makes crossings harder.
Let’s see what they do. Yvette Cooper has had years to plan and presumably some time to build up relationships with the French authorities. It’ll be her number one priority.
Partly the numbers will be a function of numbers crossing into Southern Europe this year, as that fills the hopper for the next season. I’ve not seen stats on that yet.
She's someone who could lose her seat in a full Tory collapse.
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) People Polling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Trollcasting again William.
I note you didn’t take my generous bet. I could take offence if I weren’t so thick skinned.
The Tories have lowered the bar spectacularly in terms of competence and delivery. The government’s lack of palpable achievement is, I think, unprecedented in my lifetime. There is almost nothing there. That’s quite a big factor to bear in mind when projecting forward.
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) People Polling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding People Polling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude People Polling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Good work!
Stick that in your Baxter pipe and smoke it, all you Faragistes!
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Is there a stage below apocalyptically bad? As the Tories getting circa 20%, at best, has to be at that point.
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
And yet it has the strange whiff of 2016, when the establishment media were telling us all that remain was a slam dunk. I recall being able to get 5/1 on Leave on the night.
Farage as PM is obviously preposterous, but this does have a feel like 2016, and something in the MSM won't pick up on quickly, because the MSM is all bien pensant left or right wing, take your pick - Farage remains beyond the cordon sanitaire for most middle class journos.
I would be watching what the Mail and the Express do, if they decidedly break for Farage in the next week or so, something big is up. Not big enough to make Farage PM, but big enough to make him LOTO. They know who their audience are.
Seriously are you pissed?
I had a couple of ciders with lunch ten hours ago.
What do you find so odd about the idea that perpetually little Englander publications like the Mail and the Express could decidedly break for Farage if they think he is able to flip the Tories in terms of vote share, and things snowball from there? With, say, Farage picking up more seats than the Tories, and the rump Tories merging with the Faragist lot to form an opposition party on 100 or so seats?
Idle speculation aside, even the current polling is telling us that's possible.
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Trollcasting again William.
I note you didn’t take my generous bet. I could take offence if I wasn’t so thick skinned.
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
And yet it has the strange whiff of 2016, when the establishment media were telling us all that remain was a slam dunk. I recall being able to get 5/1 on Leave on the night.
Farage as PM is obviously preposterous, but this does have a feel like 2016, and something in the MSM won't pick up on quickly, because the MSM is all bien pensant left or right wing, take your pick - Farage remains beyond the cordon sanitaire for most middle class journos.
I would be watching what the Mail and the Express do, if they decidedly break for Farage in the next week or so, something big is up. Not big enough to make Farage PM, but big enough to make him LOTO. They know who their audience are.
Seriously are you pissed?
The MSM know nothing about Farage, while also despising Farage, and possibly endorsing him.
China has selected eleven swimmers that are embroiled in a major doping scandal for next month’s Paris Olympics.
Earlier this year it emerged that 23 of the country’s swimming team were cleared to compete at the Tokyo Games in 2021, despite testing positive for a banned substance months earlier.
The World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada) said it was "not in a position to disprove" an assertion from the China Anti-Doping Agency (Chinada) that they had unintentionally ingested heart medication trimetazidine (TMZ), which can enhance performance.
A third of the 31-strong team that China has now named for the Olympics are swimmers that were reported at the time to have failed drugs tests, threatening to cast a shadow over the Paris Games.
So if you are a dodgy country that can lean of your anti-doping agency, you just get them to assert that any failed drugs test was accidental, and that will be the end of it.
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Trollcasting again William.
I note you didn’t take my generous bet. I could take offence if I wasn’t so thick skinned.
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Is there a stage below apocalyptically bad? As the Tories getting circa 20%, at best, has to be at that point.
If these trends continue we are gonna get something like
Which means Goodwin isn't that far out (just ahead of the curve?). It also means the Libs are the Opposition and the Tories are basically dead - and the Tories will likely have to be absorbed into Reform under Farage
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
And yet it has the strange whiff of 2016, when the establishment media were telling us all that remain was a slam dunk. I recall being able to get 5/1 on Leave on the night.
Farage as PM is obviously preposterous, but this does have a feel like 2016, and something in the MSM won't pick up on quickly, because the MSM is all bien pensant left or right wing, take your pick - Farage remains beyond the cordon sanitaire for most middle class journos.
I would be watching what the Mail and the Express do, if they decidedly break for Farage in the next week or so, something big is up. Not big enough to make Farage PM, but big enough to make him LOTO. They know who their audience are.
The media - middle class, bien pensant or not - *adore* Farage, because he plays it like a fiddle and provides good copy. It's his special skill - which is why he, unlike others who have tried to start revolutionary right-wing parties, he can conjure up polling numbers that scare Tory leaders. It's always a Cappuccino - part froth but with enough substance to be felt.
As for the Mail and the Express, they're simply not read by enough people these days to have the impact they once did (and their readers have more idiosyncratic views than you might expect).
The big question as to Reform you'd say is whether the Tories want to survive and campaign a bit like it. If they do then any Reform bubble should deflate - if it ever was that large. If they've really given up then we could reach a tipping point that probably still means neither party gets many seats and Ed Davey ends up as LotO.
Apparently only 3 former Tory MPs are seeking to get elected this time around, all only having served for 2 years prior. I guess it is not worth retrying this time for most.
Contrastingly 8 former LD MPs are giving it a go. I particularly like Andrew George, who has stood in St Ives every election since 1992 (being an MP from 1997-2015). He came really close in 2017 and I guess just will not give up on the getting his place back.
To answer my own question, the Workers Party are standing in 152 seats and the SDP in 122 seats - who the heck is paying for that, and how did two zombie parties even organise it?
According to wiki the Heritage Party (right wing cranks) have 41 candidates and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (left wing cranks - no, the other ones) have 40, which is pretty impressive.
Even the joke that is the Yorkshire party have stood more than UKIP.
I am sorry to report the gamechanging Goodwin poll has not made any of the front pages.
No indeed. In fact, it will be all over GB News and absolutely nowhere else. And that's rather the point, as it goes some way towards explaining those poll results.
A couple of days back, the excellent Ipsos Mori were at pains to emphasise, when releasing their MRP, what great lengths they go to in order to ensure that their panel sample is randomly constructed, much beyond the way that other pollsters behave. Potential members are selected randomly and then invited. The gold standard.
By contrast, People Polling seem to employ no controls as to who joins their panel. Now that does not in itself lead toe systemic bias within the sample, but it opens up the possibility. And the problem then comes when your polling company has its work very heavily promoted by just one TV channel which basically acts as a sop to all things Farage. I expect that people who like the diet served up by GB News are disproportionately represented amongst the People Polling panel as a consequence. In turn, that will skew their results in a way that will heavily favour Reform, beyond what can be properly corrected for by weighting.
Does Goodwin care? Of course not, because he's got an agenda. And if he can get aware with push polling under the cloak of a veneer of respectability, so much the better.
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Is there a stage below apocalyptically bad? As the Tories getting circa 20%, at best, has to be at that point.
If these trends continue we are gonna get something like
Which means Goodwin isn't that far out (just ahead of the curve?). It also means the Libs are the Opposition and the Tories are basically dead - and the Tories will likely have to be absorbed into Reform under Farage
Do you really think Reform will outpoll the Tories? This is a genuine question, because there is value there, so I’m canvassing opinion.
Jesus Christ there is some absolute fucking drivel on this site tonight on the back of a Goodwin survey.
Utterly embarrassing.
It's really not drivel. Look at all the polls. The Tories are falling, Reform are surging, Labour are very gently declining
It is highly arguable that Goodwin's poll is just ahead of the game, and that the final result will actually be something like his poll. If you extrapolate the trends
And for the life of me I cannot see what might reverse these trends. Reform are all over social media, Labour are hiding their Ming Vase, the Tories have conducted the worst campaign in history and it's not getting better, Sunak is terrible at this (and I rather like Sunak, as a person, he's just a really incompetent campaigner and strategist and he's hired the worst advisors and social media people in Britain)
Furthermore, I've now heard enough anecdotes to believe this Reform surge is real. Nearly all the polls are picking it up, they can't all be wrong
Ergo, for the trends to reverse something dramatic has to happen, there is no sign of that, and no clue what it might be, therefore the trends will continue, barring this black swan. Swingback ain't happening
Reform are quite likely gonna finish with more votes than the Tories, which is huge, and the Tories are perilously close to a terminal result of sub-50 seats
To answer my own question, the Workers Party are standing in 152 seats and the SDP in 122 seats - who the heck is paying for that, and how did two zombie parties even organise it?
According to wiki the Heritage Party (right wing cranks) have 41 candidates and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (left wing cranks - no, the other ones) have 40, which is pretty impressive.
Even the joke that is the Yorkshire party have stood more than UKIP.
If I had an SDP candidate I might vote for them.
Tempted by their simultaneous endorsement of challenging established academic orthodoxies, and mandating teachers avoid advocating unorthodox ideas?
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
And yet it has the strange whiff of 2016, when the establishment media were telling us all that remain was a slam dunk. I recall being able to get 5/1 on Leave on the night.
Farage as PM is obviously preposterous, but this does have a feel like 2016, and something in the MSM won't pick up on quickly, because the MSM is all bien pensant left or right wing, take your pick - Farage remains beyond the cordon sanitaire for most middle class journos.
I would be watching what the Mail and the Express do, if they decidedly break for Farage in the next week or so, something big is up. Not big enough to make Farage PM, but big enough to make him LOTO. They know who their audience are.
The media - middle class, bien pensant or not - *adore* Farage, because he plays it like a fiddle and provides good copy. It's his special skill - which is why he, unlike others who have tried to start revolutionary right-wing parties, he can conjure up polling numbers that scare Tory leaders. It's always a Cappuccino - part froth but with enough substance to be felt.
As for the Mail and the Express, they're simply not read by enough people these days to have the impact they once did (and their readers have more idiosyncratic views than you might expect).
The big question as to Reform you'd say is whether the Tories want to survive and campaign a bit like it. If they do then any Reform bubble should deflate - if it ever was that large. If they've really given up then we could reach a tipping point that probably still means neither party gets many seats and Ed Davey ends up as LotO.
Isn't the daily mail website something like the 4th most viewed "news" site in the world? I certainly wouldn't be counting them out of the race.
Then you have boomer facebook link sharing. "Look, the Torygraph has said Farage is your best chance to beat Labour tax hikes, click this link to find out more"
I think if sites like the Mail break decisively for Farage, it's a barometer, because they tend to follow rather than lead their audience. Their social media analytics are top notch. If the Mail breaks for Farage, it's because they know the Farage-gasm is real, and they're following their readers.
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
And yet it has the strange whiff of 2016, when the establishment media were telling us all that remain was a slam dunk. I recall being able to get 5/1 on Leave on the night.
Farage as PM is obviously preposterous, but this does have a feel like 2016, and something in the MSM won't pick up on quickly, because the MSM is all bien pensant left or right wing, take your pick - Farage remains beyond the cordon sanitaire for most middle class journos.
I would be watching what the Mail and the Express do, if they decidedly break for Farage in the next week or so, something big is up. Not big enough to make Farage PM, but big enough to make him LOTO. They know who their audience are.
The media - middle class, bien pensant or not - *adore* Farage, because he plays it like a fiddle and provides good copy. It's his special skill - which is why he, unlike others who have tried to start revolutionary right-wing parties, he can conjure up polling numbers that scare Tory leaders. It's always a Cappuccino - part froth but with enough substance to be felt.
As for the Mail and the Express, they're simply not read by enough people these days to have the impact they once did (and their readers have more idiosyncratic views than you might expect).
The big question as to Reform you'd say is whether the Tories want to survive and campaign a bit like it. If they do then any Reform bubble should deflate - if it ever was that large. If they've really given up then we could reach a tipping point that probably still means neither party gets many seats and Ed Davey ends up as LotO.
Isn't the daily mail website something like the 4th most viewed "news" site in the world? I certainly wouldn't be counting them out of the race.
Then you have boomer facebook link sharing. "Look, the Torygraph has said Farage is your best chance to beat Labour tax hikes, click this link to find out more"
I think if sites like the Mail break decisively for Farage, it's a barometer, because they tend to follow rather than lead their audience. Their social media analytics are top notch. If the Mail breaks for Farage, it's because they know the Farage-gasm is real, and they're following their readers.
If I were them I'd do it. What harm? The Tories will lose either way, and the Reform minded approach is probably more in keeping with the audience, so the better they do the more the Tories will move that way after the thrashing.
This is a fair point by Stephen Bush but he is basically admitting that immigration DOES suppress wages. Something almost no-one from the elite has been prepared to admit.
"DAN HODGES: How Nigel Farage could become Prime Minister. With Tory wipe-out guaranteed, this chain smoking populist now has a plausible path to Downing Street…"
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Is there a stage below apocalyptically bad? As the Tories getting circa 20%, at best, has to be at that point.
If these trends continue we are gonna get something like
Which means Goodwin isn't that far out (just ahead of the curve?). It also means the Libs are the Opposition and the Tories are basically dead - and the Tories will likely have to be absorbed into Reform under Farage
Do you really think Reform will outpoll the Tories? This is a genuine question, because there is value there, so I’m canvassing opinion.
If you'd asked me last week, I would have said No way. Now I think it's an evens shot, certainly Reform have the Big Mo
Also this feels qualitatively different to the Cleggasm, because that was based on a whimsical mood - "Nick Clegg is quite a nice guy, let's give him a go" - it was bound to melt away once the sunlight of reality broke through. The Nige-quake is based on very REAL policy differences, most especially on immigration at a time when immigration is right at the top of voter concerns. Only Reform are offering to fix the problem, whatever it takes. That will be appealing to a fuck of a lot of people, for concrete reasons
To answer my own question, the Workers Party are standing in 152 seats and the SDP in 122 seats - who the heck is paying for that, and how did two zombie parties even organise it?
According to wiki the Heritage Party (right wing cranks) have 41 candidates and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (left wing cranks - no, the other ones) have 40, which is pretty impressive.
Even the joke that is the Yorkshire party have stood more than UKIP.
If I had an SDP candidate I might vote for them.
Tempted by their simultaneous endorsement of challenging established academic orthodoxies, and mandating teachers avoid advocating unorthodox ideas?
Not sure what you are referring to there. Academic freedom in universities? School curricula?
I am sorry to report the gamechanging Goodwin poll has not made any of the front pages.
No indeed. In fact, it will be all over GB News and absolutely nowhere else. And that's rather the point, as it goes some way towards explaining those poll results.
A couple of days back, the excellent Ipsos Mori were at pains to emphasise, when releasing their MRP, what great lengths they go to in order to ensure that their panel sample is randomly constructed, much beyond the way that other pollsters behave. Potential members are selected randomly and then invited. The gold standard.
By contrast, People Polling seem to employ no controls as to who joins their panel. Now that does not in itself lead toe systemic bias within the sample, but it opens up the possibility. And the problem then comes when your polling company has its work very heavily promoted by just one TV channel which basically acts as a sop to all things Farage. I expect that people who like the diet served up by GB News are disproportionately represented amongst the People Polling panel as a consequence. In turn, that will skew their results in a way that will heavily favour Reform, beyond what can be properly corrected for by weighting.
Does Goodwin care? Of course not, because he's got an agenda. And if he can get aware with push polling under the cloak of a veneer of respectability, so much the better.
I agree 100% and I would vote for all of Con, Lab and LD in preference to Reform.
However we have to look objectively at all the evidence.
As per my above post, even if we exclude PeoplePolling the other SEVEN most recent conventional polls show an average of:
Con 19.6, Ref 16.4
Not only that, but the momentum appears to be in the direction of the gap closing.
Jesus Christ there is some absolute fucking drivel on this site tonight on the back of a Goodwin survey.
Utterly embarrassing.
It's really not drivel. Look at all the polls. The Tories are falling, Reform are surging, Labour are very gently declining
It is highly arguable that Goodwin's poll is just ahead of the game, and that the final result will actually be something like his poll. If you extrapolate the trends
And for the life of me I cannot see what might reverse these trends. Reform are all over social media, Labour are hiding their Ming Vase, the Tories have conducted the worst campaign in history and it's not getting better, Sunak is terrible at this (and I rather like Sunak, as a person, he's just a really incompetent campaigner and strategist and he's hired the worst advisors and social media people in Britain)
Furthermore, I've now heard enough anecdotes to believe this Reform surge is real. Nearly all the polls are picking it up, they can't all be wrong
Ergo, for the trends to reverse something dramatic has to happen, there is no sign of that, and no clue what it might be, therefore the trends will continue, barring this black swan. Swingback ain't happening
Reform are quite likely gonna finish with more votes than the Tories, which is huge, and the Tories are perilously close to a terminal result of sub-50 seats
Do you think Reform will outpoll the Tories? It’s a simple question I ask!
China has selected eleven swimmers that are embroiled in a major doping scandal for next month’s Paris Olympics.
Earlier this year it emerged that 23 of the country’s swimming team were cleared to compete at the Tokyo Games in 2021, despite testing positive for a banned substance months earlier.
The World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada) said it was "not in a position to disprove" an assertion from the China Anti-Doping Agency (Chinada) that they had unintentionally ingested heart medication trimetazidine (TMZ), which can enhance performance.
A third of the 31-strong team that China has now named for the Olympics are swimmers that were reported at the time to have failed drugs tests, threatening to cast a shadow over the Paris Games.
So if you are a dodgy country that can lean of your anti-doping agency, you just get them to assert that any failed drugs test was accidental, and that will be the end of it.
Even if you ban a country from competing it is just declared unfair if people cannot take part (despite people representing countries being the whole point), and your whole team can participate.
So just have drug accepted games and be done with it. Stop harrassing atheletes for piss samples and forcing them to find creative ways to boost performance and ingest heart medication and the like all the time.
The Tories have lowered the bar spectacularly in terms of competence and delivery. The government’s lack of palpable achievement is, I think, unprecedented in my lifetime. There is almost nothing there. That’s quite a big factor to bear in mind when projecting forward.
People are tearing up the poll of polls and multiple large sample MRPs for a 1200 sample Goodwin (who is a mega populist) poll paid for by GB News' Farage backer 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣👌 you guys do that. I will let the data speak in my bets. All I am seeing (right now) is gambler's hysteria. If it isn't replicated multiple times by truely objective polling companies in large samples, it isn't reliable. End of story. Get a grip everybody.
To answer my own question, the Workers Party are standing in 152 seats and the SDP in 122 seats - who the heck is paying for that, and how did two zombie parties even organise it?
According to wiki the Heritage Party (right wing cranks) have 41 candidates and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (left wing cranks - no, the other ones) have 40, which is pretty impressive.
Even the joke that is the Yorkshire party have stood more than UKIP.
If I had an SDP candidate I might vote for them.
Tempted by their simultaneous endorsement of challenging established academic orthodoxies, and mandating teachers avoid advocating unorthodox ideas?
Not sure what you are referring to there. Academic freedom in universities? School curricula?
The former is from the 'academic freedom' section of their manifesto, the latter from their 'schools' section (though they refer to agendas not just ideas), but I'd still regard it as an incongruent attitude, unless we think heterodoxy is acceptable at some levels but not others for some reason.
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Is there a stage below apocalyptically bad? As the Tories getting circa 20%, at best, has to be at that point.
If these trends continue we are gonna get something like
Which means Goodwin isn't that far out (just ahead of the curve?). It also means the Libs are the Opposition and the Tories are basically dead - and the Tories will likely have to be absorbed into Reform under Farage
Do you really think Reform will outpoll the Tories? This is a genuine question, because there is value there, so I’m canvassing opinion.
If you'd asked me last week, I would have said No way. Now I think it's an evens shot, certainly Reform have the Big Mo
Also this feels qualitatively different to the Cleggasm, because that was based on a whimsical mood - "Nick Clegg is quite a nice guy, let's give him a go" - it was bound to melt away once the sunlight of reality broke through. The Nige-quake is based on very REAL policy differences, most especially on immigration at a time when immigration is right at the top of voter concerns. Only Reform are offering to fix the problem, whatever it takes. That will be appealing to a fuck of a lot of people, for concrete reasons
Voting for reform is like when you were a young kid and you were on the train or something and there was a BIG RED BUTTON with words that you don't understand written all around it and your mum says DON'T PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON and your dad says DON'T PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON and your teacher says DON'T PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON.
But your impulse is to PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON.
I think that explains the current psephological phenomenon.
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Is there a stage below apocalyptically bad? As the Tories getting circa 20%, at best, has to be at that point.
If these trends continue we are gonna get something like
Which means Goodwin isn't that far out (just ahead of the curve?). It also means the Libs are the Opposition and the Tories are basically dead - and the Tories will likely have to be absorbed into Reform under Farage
Do you really think Reform will outpoll the Tories? This is a genuine question, because there is value there, so I’m canvassing opinion.
If you'd asked me last week, I would have said No way. Now I think it's an evens shot, certainly Reform have the Big Mo
Also this feels qualitatively different to the Cleggasm, because that was based on a whimsical mood - "Nick Clegg is quite a nice guy, let's give him a go" - it was bound to melt away once the sunlight of reality broke through. The Nige-quake is based on very REAL policy differences, most especially on immigration at a time when immigration is right at the top of voter concerns. Only Reform are offering to fix the problem, whatever it takes. That will be appealing to a fuck of a lot of people, for concrete reasons
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Is there a stage below apocalyptically bad? As the Tories getting circa 20%, at best, has to be at that point.
If these trends continue we are gonna get something like
Which means Goodwin isn't that far out (just ahead of the curve?). It also means the Libs are the Opposition and the Tories are basically dead - and the Tories will likely have to be absorbed into Reform under Farage
Do you really think Reform will outpoll the Tories? This is a genuine question, because there is value there, so I’m canvassing opinion.
If you'd asked me last week, I would have said No way. Now I think it's an evens shot, certainly Reform have the Big Mo
Also this feels qualitatively different to the Cleggasm, because that was based on a whimsical mood - "Nick Clegg is quite a nice guy, let's give him a go" - it was bound to melt away once the sunlight of reality broke through. The Nige-quake is based on very REAL policy differences, most especially on immigration at a time when immigration is right at the top of voter concerns. Only Reform are offering to fix the problem, whatever it takes. That will be appealing to a fuck of a lot of people, for concrete reasons
Explain the ‘Big Mo’ to me in psephological terms.
Do you really think Reform outpolling the Tories is an even money shot? If it is, the Tories are fucked. Destroyed as a party, possibly forever. I have my doubts.
Voting for reform is like when you were a young kid and you were on the train or something and there was a BIG RED BUTTON with words that you don't understand written all around it and your mum says DON'T PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON and your dad says DON'T PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON and your teacher says DON'T PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON.
But your impulse is to PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON.
Keir Starmer wants you to push the big red button!
(Some Tory leaflets do actually say 'Keir Starmer wants you...to vote reform', with an image of Keir looking powerful. An earlier version had the latter text smaller, so it looked like an entreaty to vote for Keir at first glance).
Much to my surprise, the Betting Policeman and second Tory candidate are leading on BBC Radio 4's midnight news. I would have thought the story would be lower down the running order by now. (No mention of opinion polls, though,)
Voting for reform is like when you were a young kid and you were on the train or something and there was a BIG RED BUTTON with words that you don't understand written all around it and your mum says DON'T PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON and your dad says DON'T PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON and your teacher says DON'T PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON.
But your impulse is to PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON.
I think that explains the current psephological phenomenon.
But the words written round it said Maximum penalty £100. I mean ok inflation, but even back then that seemed quite good value for money. So your point is not great.
Much to my surprise, the Betting Policeman and second Tory candidate are leading on BBC Radio 4's midnight news. I would have thought the story would be lower down the running order by now. (No mention of opinion polls, though,)
Grubby political stories add to the general narrative of Tory decline, so seem like bigger deals than they are.
A lot of people on PB these past couple of weeks have gone through this chain:
1) ‘Bet on Reform 0 seats, it’s value at evens’ 2) ‘REFUK will never hit 10% in the polls’ 3) ‘The Tories will poll 25% minimum and get 150-200 seats’ 4) ‘REFUK will never hit 15% in the polls’ 5) ‘The Tories can’t poll below 20%. They’ll get at least 100-150 seats’ 6) ‘REFUK won’t achieve crossover’ 7) ‘Okay they’ve got crossover but it will just be in one poll’ 8) ‘REFUK can’t win more than 2-3 seats’ 9) ‘The Tories will definitely finish 2nd in seats’ 10) ‘REFUK can’t win more than 5-7 seats at most’
Etc etc. It’s all starting to feel a bit like Trump 2016. Granted a markedly different political system but the idiosyncrasies of FPTP mean that if polling picks up from here, Farage LOTO is certainly in play.
And as others have said, if you’re the Telegraph, the Mail etc - it may even pay dividends to back Reform now rather than be forced into doing so after the election anyway…
I could definitely see the Sun doing it, if they didn’t want to lose their winning record. They could maybe justify it somehow if they did. Stereotypically it would surely fit their readership more than backing Starmer?
Again, not saying it will happen. But I really think we need to stop ruling out things which certainly look *possible* now.
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Is there a stage below apocalyptically bad? As the Tories getting circa 20%, at best, has to be at that point.
If these trends continue we are gonna get something like
Which means Goodwin isn't that far out (just ahead of the curve?). It also means the Libs are the Opposition and the Tories are basically dead - and the Tories will likely have to be absorbed into Reform under Farage
Do you really think Reform will outpoll the Tories? This is a genuine question, because there is value there, so I’m canvassing opinion.
If you'd asked me last week, I would have said No way. Now I think it's an evens shot, certainly Reform have the Big Mo
Also this feels qualitatively different to the Cleggasm, because that was based on a whimsical mood - "Nick Clegg is quite a nice guy, let's give him a go" - it was bound to melt away once the sunlight of reality broke through. The Nige-quake is based on very REAL policy differences, most especially on immigration at a time when immigration is right at the top of voter concerns. Only Reform are offering to fix the problem, whatever it takes. That will be appealing to a fuck of a lot of people, for concrete reasons
A lot of people on PB these past couple of weeks have gone through this chain:
1) ‘Bet on Reform 0 seats, it’s value at evens’ 2) ‘REFUK will never hit 10% in the polls’ 3) ‘The Tories will poll 25% minimum and get 150-200 seats’ 4) ‘REFUK will never hit 15% in the polls’ 5) ‘The Tories can’t poll below 20%. They’ll get at least 100-150 seats’ 6) ‘REFUK won’t achieve crossover’ 7) ‘Okay they’ve got crossover but it will just be in one poll’ 8) ‘REFUK can’t win more than 2-3 seats’ 9) ‘The Tories will definitely finish 2nd in seats’ 10) ‘REFUK can’t win more than 5-7 seats at most’
Etc etc. It’s all starting to feel a bit like Trump 2016. Granted a markedly different political system but the idiosyncrasies of FPTP mean that if polling picks up from here, Farage LOTO is certainly in play.
And as others have said, if you’re the Telegraph, the Mail etc - it may even pay dividends to back Reform now rather than be forced into doing so after the election anyway…
I could definitely see the Sun doing it, if they didn’t want to lose their winning record. They could maybe justify it somehow if they did. Stereotypically it would surely fit their readership more than backing Starmer?
No. I was here in 2016. Plenty of people were betting on Trump to win the nomination, and the Presidency. I was one of them. It is a two party system over there and any R/D has some shot upon nomination. And Trump was persistently leading the nomination polls, and was at times close on the popular vote (which of course he lost).
A lot of people on PB these past couple of weeks have gone through this chain:
1) ‘Bet on Reform 0 seats, it’s value at evens’ 2) ‘REFUK will never hit 10% in the polls’ 3) ‘The Tories will poll 25% minimum and get 150-200 seats’ 4) ‘REFUK will never hit 15% in the polls’ 5) ‘The Tories can’t poll below 20%. They’ll get at least 100-150 seats’ 6) ‘REFUK won’t achieve crossover’ 7) ‘Okay they’ve got crossover but it will just be in one poll’ 8) ‘REFUK can’t win more than 2-3 seats’ 9) ‘The Tories will definitely finish 2nd in seats’ 10) ‘REFUK can’t win more than 5-7 seats at most’
Etc etc. It’s all starting to feel a bit like Trump 2016. Granted a markedly different political system but the idiosyncrasies of FPTP mean that if polling picks up from here, Farage LOTO is certainly in play.
And as others have said, if you’re the Telegraph, the Mail etc - it may even pay dividends to back Reform now rather than be forced into doing so after the election anyway…
I could definitely see the Sun doing it, if they didn’t want to lose their winning record. They could maybe justify it somehow if they did. Stereotypically it would surely fit their readership more than backing Starmer?
Again, not saying it will happen. But I really think we need to stop ruling out things which certainly look *possible* now.
It’s 14.5 for them to have most seats other than Labour. Are you taking it?
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Is there a stage below apocalyptically bad? As the Tories getting circa 20%, at best, has to be at that point.
If these trends continue we are gonna get something like
Which means Goodwin isn't that far out (just ahead of the curve?). It also means the Libs are the Opposition and the Tories are basically dead - and the Tories will likely have to be absorbed into Reform under Farage
Do you really think Reform will outpoll the Tories? This is a genuine question, because there is value there, so I’m canvassing opinion.
If you'd asked me last week, I would have said No way. Now I think it's an evens shot, certainly Reform have the Big Mo
Also this feels qualitatively different to the Cleggasm, because that was based on a whimsical mood - "Nick Clegg is quite a nice guy, let's give him a go" - it was bound to melt away once the sunlight of reality broke through. The Nige-quake is based on very REAL policy differences, most especially on immigration at a time when immigration is right at the top of voter concerns. Only Reform are offering to fix the problem, whatever it takes. That will be appealing to a fuck of a lot of people, for concrete reasons
Reform most seats without Labour is 14.5 on BX. Even at that price, I won’t be taking it.
Meanwhile, Reform to outpoll Tory in vote share is 3.4. Considerably longer than even money (but, admittedly, considerably shorter than I’d expected).
I think the second one is a decent bet. Even ignoring Goodwin, Reform are rising by about 2 points a week? And the Tories are nudging down. We have 15 days left and the Tories are ~3 ahead
The extrapolated maths says Reform should handily overtake the Tories and get more votes. Against that you have “swing back” and Normalcy Bias
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Is there a stage below apocalyptically bad? As the Tories getting circa 20%, at best, has to be at that point.
If these trends continue we are gonna get something like
Which means Goodwin isn't that far out (just ahead of the curve?). It also means the Libs are the Opposition and the Tories are basically dead - and the Tories will likely have to be absorbed into Reform under Farage
Do you really think Reform will outpoll the Tories? This is a genuine question, because there is value there, so I’m canvassing opinion.
If you'd asked me last week, I would have said No way. Now I think it's an evens shot, certainly Reform have the Big Mo
Also this feels qualitatively different to the Cleggasm, because that was based on a whimsical mood - "Nick Clegg is quite a nice guy, let's give him a go" - it was bound to melt away once the sunlight of reality broke through. The Nige-quake is based on very REAL policy differences, most especially on immigration at a time when immigration is right at the top of voter concerns. Only Reform are offering to fix the problem, whatever it takes. That will be appealing to a fuck of a lot of people, for concrete reasons
Explain the ‘Big Mo’ to me in psephological terms.
Do you really think Reform outpolling the Tories is an even money shot? If it is, the Tories are fucked. Destroyed as a party, possibly forever. I have my doubts.
(But I will check the markets…)
Big Mo = Social Media
Eg we’re discussing that Goodwin poll and whether it needs to be on front pages/tv news to have an effect
But I wonder. Does it? Goodwins original tweet has had nearly one million views. That’s nearly a million people reading that reform are overtaking the Tories indeed trouncing them. Nigel will tell his 600,000 followers on TikTok, and so on, and so forth
This shit can now go viral without major media being involved
However, like you I find it very hard to believe Reform can come second and the Tories go extinct. Because it seems impossible and it’s never happened in my life
A lot of people on PB these past couple of weeks have gone through this chain:
1) ‘Bet on Reform 0 seats, it’s value at evens’ 2) ‘REFUK will never hit 10% in the polls’ 3) ‘The Tories will poll 25% minimum and get 150-200 seats’ 4) ‘REFUK will never hit 15% in the polls’ 5) ‘The Tories can’t poll below 20%. They’ll get at least 100-150 seats’ 6) ‘REFUK won’t achieve crossover’ 7) ‘Okay they’ve got crossover but it will just be in one poll’ 8) ‘REFUK can’t win more than 2-3 seats’ 9) ‘The Tories will definitely finish 2nd in seats’ 10) ‘REFUK can’t win more than 5-7 seats at most’
Etc etc. It’s all starting to feel a bit like Trump 2016. Granted a markedly different political system but the idiosyncrasies of FPTP mean that if polling picks up from here, Farage LOTO is certainly in play.
And as others have said, if you’re the Telegraph, the Mail etc - it may even pay dividends to back Reform now rather than be forced into doing so after the election anyway…
I could definitely see the Sun doing it, if they didn’t want to lose their winning record. They could maybe justify it somehow if they did. Stereotypically it would surely fit their readership more than backing Starmer?
Again, not saying it will happen. But I really think we need to stop ruling out things which certainly look *possible* now.
I expect to lose, but spreadbetting on Reform by buying at 7 is one I'm happy to make.
Even if Starmer was caught campaigning for Jezza and Sunak has been betting big on GE dates, 300000000/1 would still be too short for Farage as next PM.
A rather O.T. post, but I'm hoping there maybe someone on here who knows more about this than I do.
I have a short YouTube video of a couple of steam traction engines running on the road. I took it about 11 years ago, and about 2 years ago the youtube algorithm picked it up and sent it viral - it's now at 8million views. I moneyised it and it currently earns a fraction under £1k/year.
Anyway, I got an email tonight from a bloke at one of the big music corps who had been tasked with tracking me down. They have an artist who has sampled some of the audio from my videos for a track and want to licence the rights to it - the artist wants to drop the track in July. I've looked the artist up, they are a big name in their genre - their top track has had over a billion plays on Spotify, they have won multiple grammys etc.
Any idea how one plays this sort of negotiation? I'm happy enough to licence the audio in question to them, but literally no idea of a fair value, which doesn't exactly make for a strong negotiating position...
A rather O.T. post, but I'm hoping there maybe someone on here who knows more about this than I do.
I have a short YouTube video of a couple of steam traction engines running on the road. I took it about 11 years ago, and about 2 years ago the youtube algorithm picked it up and sent it viral - it's now at 8million views. I moneyised it and it currently earns a fraction under £1k/year.
Anyway, I got an email tonight from a bloke at one of the big music corps who had been tasked with tracking me down. They have an artist who has sampled some of the audio from my videos for a track and want to licence the rights to it - the artist wants to drop the track in July. I've looked the artist up, they are a big name in their genre - their top track has had over a billion plays on Spotify, they have won multiple grammys etc.
Any idea how one plays this sort of negotiation? I'm happy enough to licence the audio in question to them, but literally no idea of a fair value, which doesn't exactly make for a strong negotiating position...
Crickey, going to be a good Christmas this year at your house....
To answer my own question, the Workers Party are standing in 152 seats and the SDP in 122 seats - who the heck is paying for that, and how did two zombie parties even organise it?
According to wiki the Heritage Party (right wing cranks) have 41 candidates and the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (left wing cranks - no, the other ones) have 40, which is pretty impressive.
Even the joke that is the Yorkshire party have stood more than UKIP.
If I had an SDP candidate I might vote for them.
Tempted by their simultaneous endorsement of challenging established academic orthodoxies, and mandating teachers avoid advocating unorthodox ideas?
Not sure what you are referring to there. Academic freedom in universities? School curricula?
The former is from the 'academic freedom' section of their manifesto, the latter from their 'schools' section (though they refer to agendas not just ideas), but I'd still regard it as an incongruent attitude, unless we think heterodoxy is acceptable at some levels but not others for some reason.
A rather O.T. post, but I'm hoping there maybe someone on here who knows more about this than I do.
I have a short YouTube video of a couple of steam traction engines running on the road. I took it about 11 years ago, and about 2 years ago the youtube algorithm picked it up and sent it viral - it's now at 8million views. I moneyised it and it currently earns a fraction under £1k/year.
Anyway, I got an email tonight from a bloke at one of the big music corps who had been tasked with tracking me down. They have an artist who has sampled some of the audio from my videos for a track and want to licence the rights to it - the artist wants to drop the track in July. I've looked the artist up, they are a big name in their genre - their top track has had over a billion plays on Spotify, they have won multiple grammys etc.
Any idea how one plays this sort of negotiation? I'm happy enough to licence the audio in question to them, but literally no idea of a fair value, which doesn't exactly make for a strong negotiating position...
You want a percentage of profits, not a fixed sum. 1% of half a billion plays is much better than 50k in the hand.
A rather O.T. post, but I'm hoping there maybe someone on here who knows more about this than I do.
I have a short YouTube video of a couple of steam traction engines running on the road. I took it about 11 years ago, and about 2 years ago the youtube algorithm picked it up and sent it viral - it's now at 8million views. I moneyised it and it currently earns a fraction under £1k/year.
Anyway, I got an email tonight from a bloke at one of the big music corps who had been tasked with tracking me down. They have an artist who has sampled some of the audio from my videos for a track and want to licence the rights to it - the artist wants to drop the track in July. I've looked the artist up, they are a big name in their genre - their top track has had over a billion plays on Spotify, they have won multiple grammys etc.
Any idea how one plays this sort of negotiation? I'm happy enough to licence the audio in question to them, but literally no idea of a fair value, which doesn't exactly make for a strong negotiating position...
If he's from a big music corp, he's not going to be scared off by your initial offer, and will negotiate. The artist has already asked for this to be arranged. Go big, and take the counteroffer. I have no idea what figure you should pick though!
A rather O.T. post, but I'm hoping there maybe someone on here who knows more about this than I do.
I have a short YouTube video of a couple of steam traction engines running on the road. I took it about 11 years ago, and about 2 years ago the youtube algorithm picked it up and sent it viral - it's now at 8million views. I moneyised it and it currently earns a fraction under £1k/year.
Anyway, I got an email tonight from a bloke at one of the big music corps who had been tasked with tracking me down. They have an artist who has sampled some of the audio from my videos for a track and want to licence the rights to it - the artist wants to drop the track in July. I've looked the artist up, they are a big name in their genre - their top track has had over a billion plays on Spotify, they have won multiple grammys etc.
Any idea how one plays this sort of negotiation? I'm happy enough to licence the audio in question to them, but literally no idea of a fair value, which doesn't exactly make for a strong negotiating position...
They've finished the track & they want to release it next month? Sounds like you're in the best possible position. Talk to a music solicitor.
Polls with fieldwork ending on 17 June or later (excluding the three big MRPs done over long timescales):
Norstat: C 20, R 19 (C+1) PeoplePolling: C 15, R 24 (C-9) Survation: C 20, R 15 (C+5) Focaldata C 21, R 16 (C+5) Deltapoll C 19, R 16 (C+3) Redfield & Wilton: C 18, R 18 (tie) Verian: C 21, R13 (C+8) Ashcroft: C 18, R 18 (tie)
Average: C 19.0, R 17.4 (C+1.6)
Average excluding PeoplePolling: C 19.6, R 16.4 (C+3.2)
So even if you exclude PeoplePolling it doesn't change the overall picture that much.
Is there a stage below apocalyptically bad? As the Tories getting circa 20%, at best, has to be at that point.
If these trends continue we are gonna get something like
Which means Goodwin isn't that far out (just ahead of the curve?). It also means the Libs are the Opposition and the Tories are basically dead - and the Tories will likely have to be absorbed into Reform under Farage
Do you really think Reform will outpoll the Tories? This is a genuine question, because there is value there, so I’m canvassing opinion.
If you'd asked me last week, I would have said No way. Now I think it's an evens shot, certainly Reform have the Big Mo
Also this feels qualitatively different to the Cleggasm, because that was based on a whimsical mood - "Nick Clegg is quite a nice guy, let's give him a go" - it was bound to melt away once the sunlight of reality broke through. The Nige-quake is based on very REAL policy differences, most especially on immigration at a time when immigration is right at the top of voter concerns. Only Reform are offering to fix the problem, whatever it takes. That will be appealing to a fuck of a lot of people, for concrete reasons
Explain the ‘Big Mo’ to me in psephological terms.
Do you really think Reform outpolling the Tories is an even money shot? If it is, the Tories are fucked. Destroyed as a party, possibly forever. I have my doubts.
(But I will check the markets…)
Big Mo = Social Media
Eg we’re discussing that Goodwin poll and whether it needs to be on front pages/tv news to have an effect
But I wonder. Does it? Goodwins original tweet has had nearly one million views. That’s nearly a million people reading that reform are overtaking the Tories indeed trouncing them. Nigel will tell his 600,000 followers on TikTok, and so on, and so forth
This shit can now go viral without major media being involved
However, like you I find it very hard to believe Reform can come second and the Tories go extinct. Because it seems impossible and it’s never happened in my life
Like Covid in January 2020
Yep, and that's why I think something like the Mail plumping for Farage is a lagging indicator. They have very, very, very good social media analytics, and if their big data guys are telling them that their core audience are all liking, sharing, and making content about Reform, they will follow. Watch what outlets like the Mail do very closely over the next week. If they go full Farage, it's because their audience already has.
Reform most seats without Labour is 14.5 on BX. Even at that price, I won’t be taking it.
Meanwhile, Reform to outpoll Tory in vote share is 3.4. Considerably longer than even money (but, admittedly, considerably shorter than I’d expected).
I think the second one is a decent bet. Even ignoring Goodwin, Reform are rising by about 2 points a week? And the Tories are nudging down. We have 15 days left and the Tories are ~3 ahead
The extrapolated maths says Reform should handily overtake the Tories and get more votes. Against that you have “swing back” and Normalcy Bias
3.4 is arguably generous
On the other hand, m assuming that trends in polling will continue at the same rate, up until polling day, is usually a fool’s errand. I’d want 5 or 6 I think, to back it.
A rather O.T. post, but I'm hoping there maybe someone on here who knows more about this than I do.
I have a short YouTube video of a couple of steam traction engines running on the road. I took it about 11 years ago, and about 2 years ago the youtube algorithm picked it up and sent it viral - it's now at 8million views. I moneyised it and it currently earns a fraction under £1k/year.
Anyway, I got an email tonight from a bloke at one of the big music corps who had been tasked with tracking me down. They have an artist who has sampled some of the audio from my videos for a track and want to licence the rights to it - the artist wants to drop the track in July. I've looked the artist up, they are a big name in their genre - their top track has had over a billion plays on Spotify, they have won multiple grammys etc.
Any idea how one plays this sort of negotiation? I'm happy enough to licence the audio in question to them, but literally no idea of a fair value, which doesn't exactly make for a strong negotiating position...
Crickey, going to be a good Christmas this year at your house....
There are loads of people on TwiX questioning Goodwin’s methodology - but not one has explained why
So it’s very hard to know how much credence to give this poll
His pollster is accredited by the British Polling Council? If so, there's nothing to complain about.
@TheScreamingEagles has covered this. Goodwin’s BPC status does not shield him from criticism. Indeed he has the dubious distinction of being the only BPC pollster PBers are allowed to criticise without censure!
Reform most seats without Labour is 14.5 on BX. Even at that price, I won’t be taking it.
Meanwhile, Reform to outpoll Tory in vote share is 3.4. Considerably longer than even money (but, admittedly, considerably shorter than I’d expected).
I think the second one is a decent bet. Even ignoring Goodwin, Reform are rising by about 2 points a week? And the Tories are nudging down. We have 15 days left and the Tories are ~3 ahead
The extrapolated maths says Reform should handily overtake the Tories and get more votes. Against that you have “swing back” and Normalcy Bias
3.4 is arguably generous
On the other hand, m assuming that trends in polling will continue at the same rate, up until polling day, is usually a fool’s errand. I’d want 5 or 6 I think, to back it.
Is it a fool’s errand? Polls consistently showed Leave catching up with Remain - which is why Cameron panicked in the last fortnight - but the trend continued and Leave won
This election does have a slight flavour of Brexit. The unthinkable slowly becoming thinkable and then finally it is thought
But as I say I’m happy with my two bets on this election, so I’m not wagering more
Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
Boys, boys. You are all getting understandably carried away. Partly because it’s exciting to imagine some sort of paradigm breaking shift, partly because your own political views make it seem logical that Reform ought to be surging.
I made the same mistake in 2010. Hordes of young lefties made the same mistake after 2017, convinced their man had triggered a mould breaking youthquake.
Reform are definitely getting a polling bump but look at Farage’s approval numbers. They’re horrendous. Not as bad as Rishi’s of course, but pretty damned bad. Meanwhile Starmer’s keep rising.
And I’m not convinced there’s an anti-establishment mood, any more than there always is among the electorate. There’s an anti-Tory mood.
This is a gasm.
Unfortunately “Faragegasm” is just awkward to say. We need a new term. May I humbly propose “Farorgy”.
The 2024 Farorgy.
And yet it has the strange whiff of 2016, when the establishment media were telling us all that remain was a slam dunk. I recall being able to get 5/1 on Leave on the night.
Farage as PM is obviously preposterous, but this does have a feel like 2016, and something in the MSM won't pick up on quickly, because the MSM is all bien pensant left or right wing, take your pick - Farage remains beyond the cordon sanitaire for most middle class journos.
I would be watching what the Mail and the Express do, if they decidedly break for Farage in the next week or so, something big is up. Not big enough to make Farage PM, but big enough to make him LOTO. They know who their audience are.
The media - middle class, bien pensant or not - *adore* Farage, because he plays it like a fiddle and provides good copy. It's his special skill - which is why he, unlike others who have tried to start revolutionary right-wing parties, he can conjure up polling numbers that scare Tory leaders. It's always a Cappuccino - part froth but with enough substance to be felt.
As for the Mail and the Express, they're simply not read by enough people these days to have the impact they once did (and their readers have more idiosyncratic views than you might expect).
The big question as to Reform you'd say is whether the Tories want to survive and campaign a bit like it. If they do then any Reform bubble should deflate - if it ever was that large. If they've really given up then we could reach a tipping point that probably still means neither party gets many seats and Ed Davey ends up as LotO.
I doubt that happens, as long as the Tories are still ahead of Reform on votes in most polls they will likely stay second on seats as they are still on the latest MRP polls.
If most polls put Reform second then the Tory vote would collapse by polling day to Farage and Reform would likely end up second on seats. In neither scenario would the LDs
There are loads of people on TwiX questioning Goodwin’s methodology - but not one has explained why
So it’s very hard to know how much credence to give this poll
His pollster is accredited by the British Polling Council? If so, there's nothing to complain about.
Yes, there’s a lot of moaning and innuendo about PP and Goodwin but I’ve not seen much hard evidence. The best I can find is that he “tends to have the Tories on a lower score”. But lots of respected pollsters have their quirks. That’s why they get different results
“If Keir Starmer becomes the Prime Minister, within six months, Britain will be at war. I mean an actual war with British troops deployed. Don’t arm these dangerous people with a super-majority in Parliament.”
A rather O.T. post, but I'm hoping there maybe someone on here who knows more about this than I do.
I have a short YouTube video of a couple of steam traction engines running on the road. I took it about 11 years ago, and about 2 years ago the youtube algorithm picked it up and sent it viral - it's now at 8million views. I moneyised it and it currently earns a fraction under £1k/year.
Anyway, I got an email tonight from a bloke at one of the big music corps who had been tasked with tracking me down. They have an artist who has sampled some of the audio from my videos for a track and want to licence the rights to it - the artist wants to drop the track in July. I've looked the artist up, they are a big name in their genre - their top track has had over a billion plays on Spotify, they have won multiple grammys etc.
Any idea how one plays this sort of negotiation? I'm happy enough to licence the audio in question to them, but literally no idea of a fair value, which doesn't exactly make for a strong negotiating position...
Consult a good lawyer. You don't want to be ripped off.
A lot of people on PB these past couple of weeks have gone through this chain:
1) ‘Bet on Reform 0 seats, it’s value at evens’ 2) ‘REFUK will never hit 10% in the polls’ 3) ‘The Tories will poll 25% minimum and get 150-200 seats’ 4) ‘REFUK will never hit 15% in the polls’ 5) ‘The Tories can’t poll below 20%. They’ll get at least 100-150 seats’ 6) ‘REFUK won’t achieve crossover’ 7) ‘Okay they’ve got crossover but it will just be in one poll’ 8) ‘REFUK can’t win more than 2-3 seats’ 9) ‘The Tories will definitely finish 2nd in seats’ 10) ‘REFUK can’t win more than 5-7 seats at most’
Etc etc. It’s all starting to feel a bit like Trump 2016. Granted a markedly different political system but the idiosyncrasies of FPTP mean that if polling picks up from here, Farage LOTO is certainly in play.
And as others have said, if you’re the Telegraph, the Mail etc - it may even pay dividends to back Reform now rather than be forced into doing so after the election anyway…
I could definitely see the Sun doing it, if they didn’t want to lose their winning record. They could maybe justify it somehow if they did. Stereotypically it would surely fit their readership more than backing Starmer?
Again, not saying it will happen. But I really think we need to stop ruling out things which certainly look *possible* now.
It’s 14.5 for them to have most seats other than Labour. Are you taking it?
I was on this at 400 for a small stake before Farage made the return announcement.
Have been topping up ever since with my average odds something like 30.0 if it happens.
Was initially a trading bet but the moment to trade out hasn’t arrived yet. I may be holding it to the end now.
I’m equally invested on the Lib Dems in the same market. Both would provide big paydays. Perhaps instead of laying Reform I should simply bet on the Tories in the same market.
“If Keir Starmer becomes the Prime Minister, within six months, Britain will be at war. I mean an actual war with British troops deployed. Don’t arm these dangerous people with a super-majority in Parliament.”
Well we know how popular political betting is generally speaking, but... 😊
"A second Conservative candidate is being looked into by the Gambling Commission over a bet relating to the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal."
And looking at the Humanist's own commentary on it they point out that the Government guidance states:
"It is open to a school to have acts of worship that are wholly of a broadly Christian character, acts of worship that are broadly in the tradition of another religion, and acts of worship which contain elements drawn from a number of different faiths. [The law provides] that within each school term the majority of acts of worship must be wholly or mainly of a broadly Christian character, but it is not necessary for every act of worship to be so… Thus, whatever the decision on individual acts of worship, the majority of acts of worship over a term must be wholly or mainly of a broadly Christian character.’
We are, after all, a Christian country with an Establishment Church and our head of State is head of the Church. Now it may be that like me (I am an atheist) you would prefer this not to be the case, but as long as it is, the mildly Christian leaning of school asemblies does not seem like a great burden to me.
In the US of course it is very different. They have constitutional laws which are interpreted as enforcing the separation of CHurch and State (actually they don't but that is the long standing interpretation of the 1st Amendment) and of course they have a lot more religious extremism over there so I can understand their concerns.
A rather O.T. post, but I'm hoping there maybe someone on here who knows more about this than I do.
I have a short YouTube video of a couple of steam traction engines running on the road. I took it about 11 years ago, and about 2 years ago the youtube algorithm picked it up and sent it viral - it's now at 8million views. I moneyised it and it currently earns a fraction under £1k/year.
Anyway, I got an email tonight from a bloke at one of the big music corps who had been tasked with tracking me down. They have an artist who has sampled some of the audio from my videos for a track and want to licence the rights to it - the artist wants to drop the track in July. I've looked the artist up, they are a big name in their genre - their top track has had over a billion plays on Spotify, they have won multiple grammys etc.
Any idea how one plays this sort of negotiation? I'm happy enough to licence the audio in question to them, but literally no idea of a fair value, which doesn't exactly make for a strong negotiating position...
Consult a good lawyer. You don't want to be ripped off.
Any suggestions for where to look for said lawyer? I've a bally good solicitor for things like business contracts, but I've never had cause to dabble in music licences before.
Before I getting too excited, they want to licence a segment that I think is about 5 seconds of audio, although apparently it's repeated at multiple intervals across their track; my fear is that if I push back hard on their initial offer they will just create a similar sound and use that instead (it's basically steam loco whistle being blown).
A rather O.T. post, but I'm hoping there maybe someone on here who knows more about this than I do.
I have a short YouTube video of a couple of steam traction engines running on the road. I took it about 11 years ago, and about 2 years ago the youtube algorithm picked it up and sent it viral - it's now at 8million views. I moneyised it and it currently earns a fraction under £1k/year.
Anyway, I got an email tonight from a bloke at one of the big music corps who had been tasked with tracking me down. They have an artist who has sampled some of the audio from my videos for a track and want to licence the rights to it - the artist wants to drop the track in July. I've looked the artist up, they are a big name in their genre - their top track has had over a billion plays on Spotify, they have won multiple grammys etc.
Any idea how one plays this sort of negotiation? I'm happy enough to licence the audio in question to them, but literally no idea of a fair value, which doesn't exactly make for a strong negotiating position...
Consult a good lawyer. You don't want to be ripped off.
Any suggestions for where to look for said lawyer? I've a bally good solicitor for things like business contracts, but I've never had cause to dabble in music licences before.
Before I getting too excited, they want to licence a segment that I think is about 5 seconds of audio, although apparently it's repeated at multiple intervals across their track; my fear is that if I push back hard on their initial offer they will just create a similar sound and use that instead (it's basically steam loco whistle being blown).
Sorry, I know absolutely nothing about law or this sort of thing with royalties. I would offer advice if I did know something useful about it.
“If Keir Starmer becomes the Prime Minister, within six months, Britain will be at war. I mean an actual war with British troops deployed. Don’t arm these dangerous people with a super-majority in Parliament.”
Presumably, Galloway cheered on Ukraine giving up their nukes?
I can get my head around (although don't agree with) the balance-of-power/Mearsheimer arguments for keeping out of Ukraine, but not the anti-Nato pacifist/anti-imperialist/leftist arguments.
He's not wrong on Biden - although the stronger criticism is from the opposite position - ie, WTF was he doing pretty much unilaterally withdrawing from Afghanistan, leaving the allies hanging and sending the message to Putin that perseverance pays.
A rather O.T. post, but I'm hoping there maybe someone on here who knows more about this than I do.
I have a short YouTube video of a couple of steam traction engines running on the road. I took it about 11 years ago, and about 2 years ago the youtube algorithm picked it up and sent it viral - it's now at 8million views. I moneyised it and it currently earns a fraction under £1k/year.
Anyway, I got an email tonight from a bloke at one of the big music corps who had been tasked with tracking me down. They have an artist who has sampled some of the audio from my videos for a track and want to licence the rights to it - the artist wants to drop the track in July. I've looked the artist up, they are a big name in their genre - their top track has had over a billion plays on Spotify, they have won multiple grammys etc.
Any idea how one plays this sort of negotiation? I'm happy enough to licence the audio in question to them, but literally no idea of a fair value, which doesn't exactly make for a strong negotiating position...
Consult a good lawyer. You don't want to be ripped off.
Any suggestions for where to look for said lawyer? I've a bally good solicitor for things like business contracts, but I've never had cause to dabble in music licences before.
Before I getting too excited, they want to licence a segment that I think is about 5 seconds of audio, although apparently it's repeated at multiple intervals across their track; my fear is that if I push back hard on their initial offer they will just create a similar sound and use that instead (it's basically steam loco whistle being blown).
Consulting a lawyer seems to me to be the only way you might actually lose money here.
Another option is to ask them to make an offer. They might be hoping you give a very low figure. They might offer a decent number first to get this done quickly.
“If Keir Starmer becomes the Prime Minister, within six months, Britain will be at war. I mean an actual war with British troops deployed. Don’t arm these dangerous people with a super-majority in Parliament.”
“If Keir Starmer becomes the Prime Minister, within six months, Britain will be at war. I mean an actual war with British troops deployed. Don’t arm these dangerous people with a super-majority in Parliament.”
“If Keir Starmer becomes the Prime Minister, within six months, Britain will be at war. I mean an actual war with British troops deployed. Don’t arm these dangerous people with a super-majority in Parliament.”
A rather O.T. post, but I'm hoping there maybe someone on here who knows more about this than I do.
I have a short YouTube video of a couple of steam traction engines running on the road. I took it about 11 years ago, and about 2 years ago the youtube algorithm picked it up and sent it viral - it's now at 8million views. I moneyised it and it currently earns a fraction under £1k/year.
Anyway, I got an email tonight from a bloke at one of the big music corps who had been tasked with tracking me down. They have an artist who has sampled some of the audio from my videos for a track and want to licence the rights to it - the artist wants to drop the track in July. I've looked the artist up, they are a big name in their genre - their top track has had over a billion plays on Spotify, they have won multiple grammys etc.
Any idea how one plays this sort of negotiation? I'm happy enough to licence the audio in question to them, but literally no idea of a fair value, which doesn't exactly make for a strong negotiating position...
Consult a good lawyer. You don't want to be ripped off.
Any suggestions for where to look for said lawyer? I've a bally good solicitor for things like business contracts, but I've never had cause to dabble in music licences before.
Before I getting too excited, they want to licence a segment that I think is about 5 seconds of audio, although apparently it's repeated at multiple intervals across their track; my fear is that if I push back hard on their initial offer they will just create a similar sound and use that instead (it's basically steam loco whistle being blown).
Consulting a lawyer seems to me to be the only way you might actually lose money here.
Another option is to ask them to make an offer. They might be hoping you give a very low figure. They might offer a decent number first to get this done quickly.
Me also knowing nothing about this would be pitching it at a level it's not worth their while redoing mixing the song. That probably rules out royalties. Unless it's someone like Kanye who's a mental perfectionist who really needs THAT whistle.
If I make up a number that's 10k.
I've absolutely no expertise in this though. I do vaguely know an accountant in the music industry but no real reason to think she knows either.
You could also ask for an all expenses paid trip to see the artist playing somewhere half around the world you fancy going to. That's probably what I'd do.
Comments
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford 2019 result:
Labour: 37.9%
Conservative: 35.3%
Brexit Party: 16.6%
(I'm by some distance the most right wing member of my family. That includes my 83 yo Mother).
I'm having serious trouble trying to keep mine on board with a Labour vote.
They're convinced it's in the bag and can indulge themselves.
I'm not convinced at all.
Grrr! Aaaah!
In my investment management days there were clients who specified no alcohol/tobacco/gambling. Given his pathetic head-boy-sucking-up-to-the-grownups assaults on the first two, I am delighted to see him come a cropper on the third.
Labour 43% (=)
Con 18% (-3)
Reform 18% (+3)
LD 9% (+2)
Green 7% (=)
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1803543591622680949
Crossover is defimitely happening but it's not as exciting as Goodwin
Having declined my bet (I accept you can’t get with everyone by the way) presumably you will now be hammering the 15-1 available on Reform win sans Labour?
There's also something called the Alliance for Green Socialism, which seems pretty redundant given we have a Green Party for that.
I note you didn’t take my generous bet. I could take offence if I weren’t so thick skinned.
Stick that in your Baxter pipe and smoke it, all you Faragistes!
What do you find so odd about the idea that perpetually little Englander publications like the Mail and the Express could decidedly break for Farage if they think he is able to flip the Tories in terms of vote share, and things snowball from there? With, say, Farage picking up more seats than the Tories, and the rump Tories merging with the Faragist lot to form an opposition party on 100 or so seats?
Idle speculation aside, even the current polling is telling us that's possible.
Utterly embarrassing.
59:36 for the blocs. Bang on average.
China has selected eleven swimmers that are embroiled in a major doping scandal for next month’s Paris Olympics.
Earlier this year it emerged that 23 of the country’s swimming team were cleared to compete at the Tokyo Games in 2021, despite testing positive for a banned substance months earlier.
The World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada) said it was "not in a position to disprove" an assertion from the China Anti-Doping Agency (Chinada) that they had unintentionally ingested heart medication trimetazidine (TMZ), which can enhance performance.
A third of the 31-strong team that China has now named for the Olympics are swimmers that were reported at the time to have failed drugs tests, threatening to cast a shadow over the Paris Games.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/articles/c4nnk1xw887o
So if you are a dodgy country that can lean of your anti-doping agency, you just get them to assert that any failed drugs test was accidental, and that will be the end of it.
Lab:38
Reform: 23
Tories: 16
LDs:14
BAXTERED that gives
Lab: 474
Libs: 69
Con: 31
Reform: 21
SNP: 21
Green: 2
Which means Goodwin isn't that far out (just ahead of the curve?). It also means the Libs are the Opposition and the Tories are basically dead - and the Tories will likely have to be absorbed into Reform under Farage
As for the Mail and the Express, they're simply not read by enough people these days to have the impact they once did (and their readers have more idiosyncratic views than you might expect).
The big question as to Reform you'd say is whether the Tories want to survive and campaign a bit like it. If they do then any Reform bubble should deflate - if it ever was that large. If they've really given up then we could reach a tipping point that probably still means neither party gets many seats and Ed Davey ends up as LotO.
Contrastingly 8 former LD MPs are giving it a go. I particularly like Andrew George, who has stood in St Ives every election since 1992 (being an MP from 1997-2015). He came really close in 2017 and I guess just will not give up on the getting his place back.
A couple of days back, the excellent Ipsos Mori were at pains to emphasise, when releasing their MRP, what great lengths they go to in order to ensure that their panel sample is randomly constructed, much beyond the way that other pollsters behave. Potential members are selected randomly and then invited. The gold standard.
By contrast, People Polling seem to employ no controls as to who joins their panel. Now that does not in itself lead toe systemic bias within the sample, but it opens up the possibility. And the problem then comes when your polling company has its work very heavily promoted by just one TV channel which basically acts as a sop to all things Farage. I expect that people who like the diet served up by GB News are disproportionately represented amongst the People Polling panel as a consequence. In turn, that will skew their results in a way that will heavily favour Reform, beyond what can be properly corrected for by weighting.
Does Goodwin care? Of course not, because he's got an agenda. And if he can get aware with push polling under the cloak of a veneer of respectability, so much the better.
It is highly arguable that Goodwin's poll is just ahead of the game, and that the final result will actually be something like his poll. If you extrapolate the trends
And for the life of me I cannot see what might reverse these trends. Reform are all over social media, Labour are hiding their Ming Vase, the Tories have conducted the worst campaign in history and it's not getting better, Sunak is terrible at this (and I rather like Sunak, as a person, he's just a really incompetent campaigner and strategist and he's hired the worst advisors and social media people in Britain)
Furthermore, I've now heard enough anecdotes to believe this Reform surge is real. Nearly all the polls are picking it up, they can't all be wrong
Ergo, for the trends to reverse something dramatic has to happen, there is no sign of that, and no clue what it might be, therefore the trends will continue, barring this black swan. Swingback ain't happening
Reform are quite likely gonna finish with more votes than the Tories, which is huge, and the Tories are perilously close to a terminal result of sub-50 seats
Then you have boomer facebook link sharing. "Look, the Torygraph has said Farage is your best chance to beat Labour tax hikes, click this link to find out more"
I think if sites like the Mail break decisively for Farage, it's a barometer, because they tend to follow rather than lead their audience. Their social media analytics are top notch. If the Mail breaks for Farage, it's because they know the Farage-gasm is real, and they're following their readers.
This is a fair point by Stephen Bush but he is basically admitting that immigration DOES suppress wages. Something almost no-one from the elite has been prepared to admit.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13546525/DAN-HODGES-Nigel-Farage-Prime-Minister-Tory-wipe-guaranteed-chain-smoking-populist-plausible-path-Downing-Street.html
Also this feels qualitatively different to the Cleggasm, because that was based on a whimsical mood - "Nick Clegg is quite a nice guy, let's give him a go" - it was bound to melt away once the sunlight of reality broke through. The Nige-quake is based on very REAL policy differences, most especially on immigration at a time when immigration is right at the top of voter concerns. Only Reform are offering to fix the problem, whatever it takes. That will be appealing to a fuck of a lot of people, for concrete reasons
However we have to look objectively at all the evidence.
As per my above post, even if we exclude PeoplePolling the other SEVEN most recent conventional polls show an average of:
Con 19.6, Ref 16.4
Not only that, but the momentum appears to be in the direction of the gap closing.
Seven polls is a substantial number of polls.
Tories? It’s a simple question I ask!
So just have drug accepted games and be done with it. Stop harrassing atheletes for piss samples and forcing them to find creative ways to boost performance and ingest heart medication and the like all the time.
But your impulse is to PUSH THE BIG RED BUTTON.
I think that explains the current psephological phenomenon.
Don't always trust the bookmakers
Anthony Broxton"
https://unherd.com/2024/06/westminsters-gambling-addiction/
Do you really think Reform outpolling the Tories is an even money shot? If it is, the Tories are fucked. Destroyed as a party, possibly forever. I have my doubts.
(But I will check the markets…)
(Some Tory leaflets do actually say 'Keir Starmer wants you...to vote reform', with an image of Keir looking powerful. An earlier version had the latter text smaller, so it looked like an entreaty to vote for Keir at first glance).
1) ‘Bet on Reform 0 seats, it’s value at evens’
2) ‘REFUK will never hit 10% in the polls’
3) ‘The Tories will poll 25% minimum and get 150-200 seats’
4) ‘REFUK will never hit 15% in the polls’
5) ‘The Tories can’t poll below 20%. They’ll get at least 100-150 seats’
6) ‘REFUK won’t achieve crossover’
7) ‘Okay they’ve got crossover but it will just be in one poll’
8) ‘REFUK can’t win more than 2-3 seats’
9) ‘The Tories will definitely finish 2nd in seats’
10) ‘REFUK can’t win more than 5-7 seats at most’
Etc etc. It’s all starting to feel a bit like Trump 2016. Granted a markedly different political system but the idiosyncrasies of FPTP mean that if polling picks up from here, Farage LOTO is certainly in play.
And as others have said, if you’re the Telegraph, the Mail etc - it may even pay dividends to back Reform now rather than be forced into doing so after the election anyway…
I could definitely see the Sun doing it, if they didn’t want to lose their winning record. They could maybe justify it somehow if they did. Stereotypically it would surely fit their readership more than backing Starmer?
Again, not saying it will happen. But I really think we need to stop ruling out things which certainly look *possible* now.
Meanwhile, Reform to outpoll Tory in vote share is 3.4. Considerably longer than even money (but, admittedly, considerably shorter than I’d expected).
The extrapolated maths says Reform should handily overtake the Tories and get more votes. Against that you have “swing back” and Normalcy Bias
3.4 is arguably generous
Next PM:
Farage 30 / 42
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.205534101
Eg we’re discussing that Goodwin poll and whether it needs to be on front pages/tv news to have an effect
But I wonder. Does it? Goodwins original tweet has had nearly one million views. That’s nearly a million people reading that reform are overtaking the Tories indeed trouncing them. Nigel will tell his 600,000 followers on TikTok, and so on, and so forth
This shit can now go viral without major media being involved
However, like you I find it very hard to believe Reform can come second and the Tories go extinct. Because it seems impossible and it’s never happened in my life
Like Covid in January 2020
I have a short YouTube video of a couple of steam traction engines running on the road. I took it about 11 years ago, and about 2 years ago the youtube algorithm picked it up and sent it viral - it's now at 8million views. I moneyised it and it currently earns a fraction under £1k/year.
Anyway, I got an email tonight from a bloke at one of the big music corps who had been tasked with tracking me down. They have an artist who has sampled some of the audio from my videos for a track and want to licence the rights to it - the artist wants to drop the track in July.
I've looked the artist up, they are a big name in their genre - their top track has had over a billion plays on Spotify, they have won multiple grammys etc.
Any idea how one plays this sort of negotiation? I'm happy enough to licence the audio in question to them, but literally no idea of a fair value, which doesn't exactly make for a strong negotiating position...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp66xdxj0l3o
https://assembliesforall.org.uk/about/law-on-assemblies/
Widely ignored, but it's on the books.
So it’s very hard to know how much credence to give this poll
This election does have a slight flavour of Brexit. The unthinkable slowly becoming thinkable and then finally it is thought
But as I say I’m happy with my two bets on this election, so I’m not wagering more
If you get 5 or 6 you should defffo take it
If most polls put Reform second then the Tory vote would collapse by polling day to Farage and Reform would likely end up second on seats. In neither scenario would the LDs
“If Keir Starmer becomes the Prime Minister, within six months, Britain will be at war. I mean an actual war with British troops deployed. Don’t arm these dangerous people with a super-majority in Parliament.”
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/george-galloway-keir-starmer-labour-rochdale-rishi-sunak-b1165461.html
Have been topping up ever since with my average odds something like 30.0 if it happens.
Was initially a trading bet but the moment to trade out hasn’t arrived yet. I may be holding it to the end now.
I’m equally invested on the Lib Dems in the same market. Both would provide big paydays. Perhaps instead of laying Reform I should simply bet on the Tories in the same market.
"A second Conservative candidate is being looked into by the Gambling Commission over a bet relating to the timing of the general election, the BBC can reveal."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd11j1q3y13o
And looking at the Humanist's own commentary on it they point out that the Government guidance states:
"It is open to a school to have acts of worship that are wholly of a broadly Christian character, acts of worship that are broadly in the tradition of another religion, and acts of worship which contain elements drawn from a number of different faiths. [The law provides] that within each school term the majority of acts of worship must be wholly or mainly of a broadly Christian character, but it is not necessary for every act of worship to be so… Thus, whatever the decision on individual acts of worship, the majority of acts of worship over a term must be wholly or mainly of a broadly Christian character.’
We are, after all, a Christian country with an Establishment Church and our head of State is head of the Church. Now it may be that like me (I am an atheist) you would prefer this not to be the case, but as long as it is, the mildly Christian leaning of school asemblies does not seem like a great burden to me.
In the US of course it is very different. They have constitutional laws which are interpreted as enforcing the separation of CHurch and State (actually they don't but that is the long standing interpretation of the 1st Amendment) and of course they have a lot more religious extremism over there so I can understand their concerns.
Before I getting too excited, they want to licence a segment that I think is about 5 seconds of audio, although apparently it's repeated at multiple intervals across their track; my fear is that if I push back hard on their initial offer they will just create a similar sound and use that instead (it's basically steam loco whistle being blown).
I can get my head around (although don't agree with) the balance-of-power/Mearsheimer arguments for keeping out of Ukraine, but not the anti-Nato pacifist/anti-imperialist/leftist arguments.
He's not wrong on Biden - although the stronger criticism is from the opposite position - ie, WTF was he doing pretty much unilaterally withdrawing from Afghanistan, leaving the allies hanging and sending the message to Putin that perseverance pays.
Another option is to ask them to make an offer. They might be hoping you give a very low figure. They might offer a decent number first to get this done quickly.
If I make up a number that's 10k.
I've absolutely no expertise in this though. I do vaguely know an accountant in the music industry but no real reason to think she knows either.
You could also ask for an all expenses paid trip to see the artist playing somewhere half around the world you fancy going to. That's probably what I'd do.