Timing is everything – politicalbetting.com
Timing is everything – politicalbetting.com
My wordSunak protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets.https://t.co/yYt8aYFKEV pic.twitter.com/902kwxrsBM
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Incidentally, my experience is that most Tory activists don't understand Reform at all.
Two of us in my association have been stating the risks for years. Ever since Truss was deposed and Sunak foisted upon the membership by the Parly party. Interestingly, both of us have far more working class influences and non-Southern roots within our families.
Would this election be different if the student numbers were still hidden, and not in the headline numbers? Maybe a little.
"Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."
https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022
I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"
Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON
But still, interesting
Because that a bloody big red line for a lot of Tories (and it's not a Remain/Leave divide either)?
Fell asleep and woke to that poll.
An inaccurate poll is one you don't like.
A weird poll remains an outlier till it becomes a trend. 1 in 20 will be.
Trends can be MOE individually, but significant if repeated several times in the same direction.
Most important. Canada 93 happened kind of like this.
Thought Labour played an extremely canny campaign right up to the manifesto launch. But seems to have gone into their ultra defensive shell.
They need to hit Reform now.
None did in my area.....
The home secretary is popular with centrists and is predicted to keep his Braintree seat but he has told friends he won’t be putting himself forward
Suella Braverman, his predecessor as home secretary, has been deserted by key allies who predict she may not enter the contest due to a lack of support since her departure from government last November.
Allies believe that even if she did decide to run, it would not be a serious bid and motivated more by trying to secure a senior role in the shadow cabinet.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/james-cleverly-lacks-appetite-for-conservative-party-leadership-contest-ntmxghcbk
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2017/06/watch-politics-expert-matthew-goodwin-eats-his-own-book-live-tv-after
More on goodwin: "Goodwin spoke at the 2023 National Conservatism Conference, where he described the Conservative Party as in a "prolonged death spiral....For The Atlantic, Helen Lewis wrote that Goodwin gave "a typically doomy speech", which "segued into 10 minutes of pure populist beat poetry".[31] Gerry Hassan wrote that "Goodwin is the populist right's academic of choice, but it seems to have escaped his notice that in the past half century right-wing Tory Governments have been in office for three-quarters of the time."[32] David Aaronovitch described Goodwin's speech as one of the two most "politically coherent" of the conference, calling him "the politics professor turned political entrepreneur...Others have characterized Goodwin as a "populist academic",[35] stating that he turned from observer into participant, becoming an apologist for populism.[36][37][38][39][40] In 2023, the New Statesman named Goodwin as the 43rd most powerful right-wing British political figure of the year."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Goodwin
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Now I don't trust that polling result AT ALL!!!!!!
Here is my prediction: he is going to get in trouble for his data handling
And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
But imagine a thought experiment.
Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
July 5th we have PM Farage.
What then?
An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
Etc., etc.
NB.
The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
Useful list of the MRPs here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#Seat_projections
Lib Dems to take East Hants according to YouGov!
This election campaign does seem rather interminable.
Pointing out that Farage wants to privatise the NHS, and repeal the laws on paid holiday etc is the way to go. Reform voters dont want Thatcherism, they want to boot out immigrants.
I have Baxtered the Scottish subsample (80 voters) from the PP poll,
SNP 50 MPs, LD 5, Lab 2
It would be a case of learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
Boris has learnt nothing and the voters have forgotten nothing.
Ergo, if he says he is seeing this, I believe him - but of course it may just be a localised phenomenon meaning nothing nationwide
God, we need more polls!
I’m even less confident of what the final result might be come Election Day .
If they feel like Reform and Farage is the way forward then it would not be a huge leap for them to desert the Tories. That readership is quite important for the Tory core vote, too.
You couldn't really have a shorter election campaign with so many people voting by post two weeks before everyone else.
50% members vote. 50% a random sample of the electorate.
The problem for the policeman is that in attempting to place the bet, he was acting dishonestly - he knew that the event was no longer uncertain, but pretended that it was. So the Met might well come down on him like a ton of bricks.
I have a lot of sympathy for the Con Councillors and activists, who have been massively screwed over by the MPs and are now on the brunt of public anger. I have no sympathy at all for the MPs.
Where things go from there is anyone's guess.
Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).
Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.
PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
Yes, you'll probably lose £50-£60 but I view that as a 'stake' with a potentially large upside if something seismic does happen.
NB: I don't expect something seismic to happen; Reform has zero ground game and infrastructure.
So, if Reform get in, the worst they can do is be as bad as Labour or the Tories. Meh
If it was the PPS who has a big mouth, and he does rather strike one as that being a possibility, again, its not really Sunak's fault.
It's a bit like walking out of a football game after 60 minutes, or watching half a movie and writing a review.
Not his fault per se but seems indicative of the rolling shambles where people don't know how to behave.
I am still baffled how US politicians who are either the worlds best stock market traders or might possibly using private information is just shrugged off. It seems a massive scandal, but its just glossed over.
Latest Angus Reid poll modelled out
CON: 228 seats (+109)
BQ: 52 seats (+20)
NDP; 37 seats (+12)
LIB: 24 seats (-136)
GRN: 2 seats (-)
Conservative Supermajority Government
https://x.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1803414496326647808
Events moving very quickly.
Betting odds generally narrow, IMHO, and cluster round the polling mean too much.
DYOR.
I think Goodwin was an outlier though, Norstat and Survation taken over a similar timeline still have the Tories ahead of Reform
This poll is hard to believe, but there is a trend
If it makes the front pages/TV news/radio tomorrow then that alone could swing more momentum behind Reform. Suddenly they are the coming party, a surging new alternative - everyone hates the Tories, Labour are boring and Woke, the LDs are kinda pointless, the SNP weary and corrupt, and Farage is a good campaigner - but wait, there's a new kid in town and they might actually win, or at least give the other parties a real scare
And so the bandwagon gathers pace: a self fulfilling prophecy
On the other hand if the media ignores this poll Reform could fall back again. I imagine quite a few people in the BBC/C4/ITV/Sky are quietly arguing for it to be ignored
Things can always be worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlfVqyqObcA
Rishi desperately needs the Tories to stay ahead of Reform now until his final head to head debate with Starmer next week when he can focus on undecideds
You've no evidence Labour would make it worse.
That's your feelz. Which is fair enough for me. Emotion is of greater value than logic from my standpoint.
However, there is a decent empirical view using the Enlightenment values of Reason, which you cherish so highly that Reform would be a fuckton worse than the Tories.
Farage brooks no dissent. And didn't at least put in a shift like Sunak, when he was an MEP.
His Party, and the governing Party of the country is a private company owned by him. The candidates haven't been vetted, nor have any experience. The manifesto is the polar opposite on almost everything other than immigration to the views of the very people who will have vote for it.
It'd make the last eight years look like an oasis of calm.
That’s it for my election too.
I am hoping for a reformgasm on the spreads. I want to short them but be stupid to hit the bid atm.
- The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support
- Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival
- The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote
- In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1803542917111488709
The Tories are possibly finished. They really may never govern again.
Environment could be toilet by 2030 and the Greens touch erogenous zones for the Left that no-one else can.
Edit: actually no I haven't because the Betfair lay (to cover the SPIN downside) just can kicks the profitability threshold to, like, 17 Reform seats.
I'd break even 0-7 seats, then have a loss from 7-17 seats, and then start making a small profit.
Seems silly. I'll take the £60 risk.
Labour 43% (=)
Con 18% (-3)
Reform 18% (+3)
LD 9% (+2)
Green 7% (=)
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1803543591622680949