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Timing is everything – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,150
edited July 4 in General
Timing is everything – politicalbetting.com

My wordSunak protection officer investigated for alleged election date bets.https://t.co/yYt8aYFKEV pic.twitter.com/902kwxrsBM

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    First?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited June 19
    Sunak is a really unlucky general. Yesterday he managed to find the only flock of sheep who don't like food. Today, a bent MET officer isn't anything to do with him, but obviously it just all looks bad.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    Third like CON?
  • bobbobbobbob Posts: 100
    Is this illegal ? Any one know of any one else being convicted of “insider betting” ? A Met investigation is obviously different
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,676
    Protection Officers work for the security services not the Tory Party of course, in this case it seems the officer must have overheard something and bet accordingly
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,117
    edited June 19
    Not surprised to see Reform continuing to thrive in the polls.

    Incidentally, my experience is that most Tory activists don't understand Reform at all.

    Two of us in my association have been stating the risks for years. Ever since Truss was deposed and Sunak foisted upon the membership by the Parly party. Interestingly, both of us have far more working class influences and non-Southern roots within our families.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,541
    rcs1000 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    All the Tories had to do was deliver on immigration and behave properly and they'd now be sitting at 30%+

    I actually have a big header on it, and all the increase in immigration is two things:

    (1) Student numbers have gone from just over 200k in 2019 to 600k now. Now while most of those will return home eventually, the impact on last year's net migration number was still something like +400k (i.e. 200k students leaving, and 600k students arriving).

    (2) Boris Johnson's government got the income thresholds wrong, and ended up with far more people applying for (and meeting the critera) for visas than expected.

    Starmer is a lucky general, because students will come to the end of the courses, and while some (it's typically 20-22%) will find a way to remain, most will return home. Mathematically, if you keep student visas at 600k a year, then it means that net migration from students drops from 400k/year to 125k.

    He's also a lucky general because Sunak already changed the income thresholds. This means that come 2025 there's a whole bunch fewer people who will qualify for work visas.

    Without doing anything other than enjoy the consequences of decisions already taken, net migration to the UK is likely to drop significantly in the next three years.
    Worth remembering that including students in the figures was a Theresa May innovation. And roundly condemned by many here - people thought she was trying to pump the numbers up to justify cracking down. Seemed fairly uncontroversial to me, given they leave as well as arrive.

    Would this election be different if the student numbers were still hidden, and not in the headline numbers? Maybe a little.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    Mortimer said:

    Not surprised to see Reform continuing to thrive in the polls.

    Incidentally, my experience is that most Tory activists don't understand Reform at all.

    Two of us in my association have been stating the risks for years. Ever since Truss was deposed and Sunak foisted upon the membership by the Parly party. Interestingly, both of us have far more working class influences and non-Southern roots within our families.

    How many of those activists would welcome Farage into the Tory party?

    Because that a bloody big red line for a lot of Tories (and it's not a Remain/Leave divide either)?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    FPT.
    Fell asleep and woke to that poll.
    An inaccurate poll is one you don't like.
    A weird poll remains an outlier till it becomes a trend. 1 in 20 will be.
    Trends can be MOE individually, but significant if repeated several times in the same direction.
    Most important. Canada 93 happened kind of like this.

    Thought Labour played an extremely canny campaign right up to the manifesto launch. But seems to have gone into their ultra defensive shell.
    They need to hit Reform now.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,930
    Are there any council by-elections this week and if so are Reform standing? A good measure of whether the polling bounce is real. It’s not shown up in elections so far but we’ve not had a by-election in a favourable seat post Farage.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Galloway getting his excuses in early maybe?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,493
    edited June 19
    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    I am suspicious of this, but I think Reform are currently on about 21/20% and I think this will drop a bit. But PP today (even when allowing for MoE), + the Economist's (neglected) extraordinary Gillingham and Rainham poll are supporting evidence that something is occurring. If, which I doubt, this becomes a roll then it's all doubly epoch making - which it is anyway.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Galloway getting his excuses in early maybe?
    He's largely canvassing the most deprived areas of Rochdale, so no real surprises. Its a big place.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,117
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Not surprised to see Reform continuing to thrive in the polls.

    Incidentally, my experience is that most Tory activists don't understand Reform at all.

    Two of us in my association have been stating the risks for years. Ever since Truss was deposed and Sunak foisted upon the membership by the Parly party. Interestingly, both of us have far more working class influences and non-Southern roots within our families.

    How many of those activists would welcome Farage into the Tory party?

    Because that a bloody big red line for a lot of Tories (and it's not a Remain/Leave divide either)?
    Lots said they would leave when Boris became leader.

    None did in my area.....
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,566
    Really does feel like end days now.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    I am suspicious of this, but I think Reform are currently on about 21/20% and I think this will drop a bit. But PP today (even when allowing for MoE), + the Economist's (neglected) extraordinary Gillingham and Rainham poll are supporting evidence that something is occurring. If, which I doubt, this becomes a roll then it's all doubly epoch making - which it is anyway.
    Im vastly more certain something is happening as well - Clacton + G&R make sure of that - the interesting thing is that (even ignoring Leon & Galloway's anecdotes I'm seeing people on political twitter shift from Reform are nowhere on the doorstep to a 'surprising' number. Outside of the political bubble I wonder if Farage being back is just bedding in with people leading to a gradual shift that poltwitter has no idea of?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,566
    Just a question, in 2019 the second YouGov MRP was less accurate than the first. Is the second YouGov this time predicting more or fewer seats for Labour?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    edited June 19
    James Cleverly ‘lacks appetite’ for Conservative Party leadership contest

    The home secretary is popular with centrists and is predicted to keep his Braintree seat but he has told friends he won’t be putting himself forward

    Suella Braverman, his predecessor as home secretary, has been deserted by key allies who predict she may not enter the contest due to a lack of support since her departure from government last November.

    Allies believe that even if she did decide to run, it would not be a serious bid and motivated more by trying to secure a senior role in the shadow cabinet.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/james-cleverly-lacks-appetite-for-conservative-party-leadership-contest-ntmxghcbk
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,607
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Not surprised to see Reform continuing to thrive in the polls.

    Incidentally, my experience is that most Tory activists don't understand Reform at all.

    Two of us in my association have been stating the risks for years. Ever since Truss was deposed and Sunak foisted upon the membership by the Parly party. Interestingly, both of us have far more working class influences and non-Southern roots within our families.

    How many of those activists would welcome Farage into the Tory party?

    Because that a bloody big red line for a lot of Tories (and it's not a Remain/Leave divide either)?
    Johnson will return in a by-election mid-way through next parliament is my prediction.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,484
    edited June 19
    Politics will get interesting once Starmer is in Downing Street. At the moment it isn't particularly, although we can't really hope to comprehend that yet.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    We've still not had a single poll (including the PP outlier) that gives anything but a huge landslide for Labour and a once in a century disaster (or worse) for the Tories.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 478
    This is the guy who owns people polling 🤣🤣🤣🤣

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2017/06/watch-politics-expert-matthew-goodwin-eats-his-own-book-live-tv-after

    More on goodwin: "Goodwin spoke at the 2023 National Conservatism Conference, where he described the Conservative Party as in a "prolonged death spiral....For The Atlantic, Helen Lewis wrote that Goodwin gave "a typically doomy speech", which "segued into 10 minutes of pure populist beat poetry".[31] Gerry Hassan wrote that "Goodwin is the populist right's academic of choice, but it seems to have escaped his notice that in the past half century right-wing Tory Governments have been in office for three-quarters of the time."[32] David Aaronovitch described Goodwin's speech as one of the two most "politically coherent" of the conference, calling him "the politics professor turned political entrepreneur...Others have characterized Goodwin as a "populist academic",[35] stating that he turned from observer into participant, becoming an apologist for populism.[36][37][38][39][40] In 2023, the New Statesman named Goodwin as the 43rd most powerful right-wing British political figure of the year."


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Goodwin

    🤣🤣🤣🤣
    Now I don't trust that polling result AT ALL!!!!!!

    Here is my prediction: he is going to get in trouble for his data handling
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Thing is.
    And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
    But imagine a thought experiment.
    Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
    July 5th we have PM Farage.
    What then?
    An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
    Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
    An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
    an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
    I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
    Etc., etc.
    NB.
    The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Just a question, in 2019 the second YouGov MRP was less accurate than the first. Is the second YouGov this time predicting more or fewer seats for Labour?

    Slightly more (425 v 422)

    Useful list of the MRPs here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#Seat_projections
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,566
    Jesus, perhaps my Mum was right.

    Lib Dems to take East Hants according to YouGov!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,930
    Still more than two weeks to go.

    This election campaign does seem rather interminable.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Not surprised to see Reform continuing to thrive in the polls.

    Incidentally, my experience is that most Tory activists don't understand Reform at all.

    Two of us in my association have been stating the risks for years. Ever since Truss was deposed and Sunak foisted upon the membership by the Parly party. Interestingly, both of us have far more working class influences and non-Southern roots within our families.

    How many of those activists would welcome Farage into the Tory party?

    Because that a bloody big red line for a lot of Tories (and it's not a Remain/Leave divide either)?
    Johnson will return in a by-election mid-way through next parliament is my prediction.
    I look forward to the Tories being able to find a seat that will vote for Boris Johnson.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,564
    dixiedean said:

    FPT.
    Fell asleep and woke to that poll.
    An inaccurate poll is one you don't like.
    A weird poll remains an outlier till it becomes a trend. 1 in 20 will be.
    Trends can be MOE individually, but significant if repeated several times in the same direction.
    Most important. Canada 93 happened kind of like this.

    Thought Labour played an extremely canny campaign right up to the manifesto launch. But seems to have gone into their ultra defensive shell.
    They need to hit Reform now.

    Yes, the optimum for Labour is Reform to behind the Tories, but close enough for a fatal wound.

    Pointing out that Farage wants to privatise the NHS, and repeal the laws on paid holiday etc is the way to go. Reform voters dont want Thatcherism, they want to boot out immigrants.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,556
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Not surprised to see Reform continuing to thrive in the polls.

    Incidentally, my experience is that most Tory activists don't understand Reform at all.

    Two of us in my association have been stating the risks for years. Ever since Truss was deposed and Sunak foisted upon the membership by the Parly party. Interestingly, both of us have far more working class influences and non-Southern roots within our families.

    How many of those activists would welcome Farage into the Tory party?

    Because that a bloody big red line for a lot of Tories (and it's not a Remain/Leave divide either)?
    Johnson will return in a by-election mid-way through next parliament is my prediction.
    So what if he did ?

    It would be a case of learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

    Boris has learnt nothing and the voters have forgotten nothing.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Mortimer said:

    Not surprised to see Reform continuing to thrive in the polls.

    Incidentally, my experience is that most Tory activists don't understand Reform at all.

    Two of us in my association have been stating the risks for years. Ever since Truss was deposed and Sunak foisted upon the membership by the Parly party. Interestingly, both of us have far more working class influences and non-Southern roots within our families.

    "Foisted" my shiny metal ass. If you want to use the word at all, would you not say that that Truss was foisted on the country by Major Incipient-Dementia and his good lady wife of Dunroamin, or in your terms "the membership"? In a very close contest, Hague is probably the biggest arse among living current and former con leaders for giving the membership the vote. Which effectively gives him ownership of all his successors.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Galloway getting his excuses in early maybe?
    Galloway is many bad things but he is not stupid and he's a canny political observer. Also he hates Reform because he sees them as pro-Israel, so it's not really his thing to big them up

    Ergo, if he says he is seeing this, I believe him - but of course it may just be a localised phenomenon meaning nothing nationwide

    God, we need more polls!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    FPT.
    Fell asleep and woke to that poll.
    An inaccurate poll is one you don't like.
    A weird poll remains an outlier till it becomes a trend. 1 in 20 will be.
    Trends can be MOE individually, but significant if repeated several times in the same direction.
    Most important. Canada 93 happened kind of like this.

    Thought Labour played an extremely canny campaign right up to the manifesto launch. But seems to have gone into their ultra defensive shell.
    They need to hit Reform now.

    Yes, the optimum for Labour is Reform to behind the Tories, but close enough for a fatal wound.

    Pointing out that Farage wants to privatise the NHS, and repeal the laws on paid holiday etc is the way to go. Reform voters dont want Thatcherism, they want to boot out immigrants.
    Absolutely.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,273
    The right wing media seem disinterested in trying to save the Tories which spells very bad news for them . Labour seem uninterested in going after Reform and could well regret that decision.

    I’m even less confident of what the final result might be come Election Day .

  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,496
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Not surprised to see Reform continuing to thrive in the polls.

    Incidentally, my experience is that most Tory activists don't understand Reform at all.

    Two of us in my association have been stating the risks for years. Ever since Truss was deposed and Sunak foisted upon the membership by the Parly party. Interestingly, both of us have far more working class influences and non-Southern roots within our families.

    How many of those activists would welcome Farage into the Tory party?

    Because that a bloody big red line for a lot of Tories (and it's not a Remain/Leave divide either)?
    Johnson will return in a by-election mid-way through next parliament is my prediction.
    For which party?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,607
    Benpointer said:

    We've still not had a single poll (including the PP outlier) that gives anything but a huge landslide for Labour and a once in a century disaster (or worse) for the Tories.

    Either Starmer is in Downing Street on 5th July or the polling industry is finished.

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    nico679 said:

    The right wing media seem disinterested in trying to save the Tories which spells very bad news for them . Labour seem uninterested in going after Reform and could well regret that decision.

    I’m even less confident of what the final result might be come Election Day .

    I still think watch The Mail and The Express (and the Telegraph to some extent).

    If they feel like Reform and Farage is the way forward then it would not be a huge leap for them to desert the Tories. That readership is quite important for the Tory core vote, too.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,275
    TimS said:

    Still more than two weeks to go.

    This election campaign does seem rather interminable.

    The thing is, for a whole bunch of people (including my mother), that's it. They have voted. The election campaign is over. They just have to wait for the counting. From their point of view the counting is going to take more than two weeks, more than twice as long as the STV counts in Ireland with multiple full recounts.

    You couldn't really have a shorter election campaign with so many people voting by post two weeks before everyone else.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,607
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    James Cleverly ‘lacks appetite’ for Conservative Party leadership contest

    The home secretary is popular with centrists and is predicted to keep his Braintree seat but he has told friends he won’t be putting himself forward

    Suella Braverman, his predecessor as home secretary, has been deserted by key allies who predict she may not enter the contest due to a lack of support since her departure from government last November.

    Allies believe that even if she did decide to run, it would not be a serious bid and motivated more by trying to secure a senior role in the shadow cabinet.

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/james-cleverly-lacks-appetite-for-conservative-party-leadership-contest-ntmxghcbk

    Rats. Cleverly was my main bet for leader.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Do you know what would be an effective system for electing a Party leader?
    50% members vote. 50% a random sample of the electorate.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 478
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Thing is.
    And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
    But imagine a thought experiment.
    Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
    July 5th we have PM Farage.
    What then?
    An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
    Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
    An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
    an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
    I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
    Etc., etc.
    NB.
    The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
    Utterly horrifying thought
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    edited June 19
    numbertwelve said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Not surprised to see Reform continuing to thrive in the polls.

    Incidentally, my experience is that most Tory activists don't understand Reform at all.

    Two of us in my association have been stating the risks for years. Ever since Truss was deposed and Sunak foisted upon the membership by the Parly party. Interestingly, both of us have far more working class influences and non-Southern roots within our families.

    How many of those activists would welcome Farage into the Tory party?

    Because that a bloody big red line for a lot of Tories (and it's not a Remain/Leave divide either)?
    Johnson will return in a by-election mid-way through next parliament is my prediction.
    I look forward to the Tories being able to find a seat that will vote for Boris Johnson.
    Absolutely outrageous that the Tory membership can't just replace their elected MP with whomever they want, as they can with a PM.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 225
    bobbob said:

    Is this illegal ? Any one know of any one else being convicted of “insider betting” ? A Met investigation is obviously different

    My understanding is that a wager/bet is a form of contract based on a future uncertain event. The event must be both in the future, and uncertain. So, if the policeman overheard something, or was told something, which meant that the future event was no longer uncertain, then the bet is voidable by the other party - presumably the poor honest hardworking bookie.

    The problem for the policeman is that in attempting to place the bet, he was acting dishonestly - he knew that the event was no longer uncertain, but pretended that it was. So the Met might well come down on him like a ton of bricks.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,967
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sunak is a really unlucky general. Yesterday he managed to find the only flock of sheep who don't like food. Today, a bent MET officer isn't anything to do with him, but obviously it just all looks bad.

    We don’t know it isn’t anything to do with him. It could be to do with his PPS.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,908
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Thing is.
    And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
    But imagine a thought experiment.
    Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
    July 5th we have PM Farage.
    What then?
    An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
    Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
    An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
    an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
    I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
    Etc., etc.
    NB.
    The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
    We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.

    Where things go from there is anyone's guess.

    Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).

    Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.

    PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    It's hard to argue against buying Reform at 7 on the spreads at, say, £10 a seat.

    Yes, you'll probably lose £50-£60 but I view that as a 'stake' with a potentially large upside if something seismic does happen.

    NB: I don't expect something seismic to happen; Reform has zero ground game and infrastructure.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,650
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    Benpointer said:

    We've still not had a single poll (including the PP outlier) that gives anything but a huge landslide for Labour and a once in a century disaster (or worse) for the Tories.

    COMEDY SCOTTISH SUBSAMPLE KLAXON ALERT
    I have Baxtered the Scottish subsample (80 voters) from the PP poll,
    SNP 50 MPs, LD 5, Lab 2
    Broken, sleazy Reform Scottish Subsample on the slide!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Thing is.
    And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
    But imagine a thought experiment.
    Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
    July 5th we have PM Farage.
    What then?
    An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
    Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
    An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
    an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
    I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
    Etc., etc.
    NB.
    The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
    The country has been fucked by the Tories and I think Labour might contrive to make it WORSE

    So, if Reform get in, the worst they can do is be as bad as Labour or the Tories. Meh
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,237
    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Galloway getting his excuses in early maybe?
    Galloway is many bad things but he is not stupid and he's a canny political observer. Also he hates Reform because he sees them as pro-Israel, so it's not really his thing to big them up

    Ergo, if he says he is seeing this, I believe him - but of course it may just be a localised phenomenon meaning nothing nationwide

    God, we need more polls!
    YouGov MRP for Rochdale was Lab 49%, Con 15% Reform 14%, LD 8%, Green 7%, Other 7%
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,967
    HYUFD said:

    Protection Officers work for the security services not the Tory Party of course, in this case it seems the officer must have overheard something and bet accordingly

    2 people made the same bet. Did both happen to overhear the same conversation? Did they talk to each other? We have no idea.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited June 19
    bondegezou said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sunak is a really unlucky general. Yesterday he managed to find the only flock of sheep who don't like food. Today, a bent MET officer isn't anything to do with him, but obviously it just all looks bad.

    We don’t know it isn’t anything to do with him. It could be to do with his PPS.
    I am not sure an officer who by the nature of their job gets to hear sensitive information all the time and is assigned to the PM, rather than being selected by the PM, is any fault of PM if they decide to go off and start betting using this privileged information.

    If it was the PPS who has a big mouth, and he does rather strike one as that being a possibility, again, its not really Sunak's fault.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Hahaha a second Tory PPC under investigation for betting on the election date.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Don't know why anyone who doesn't need a postal vote would apply for one.
    It's a bit like walking out of a football game after 60 minutes, or watching half a movie and writing a review.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,497
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Galloway getting his excuses in early maybe?
    Galloway is many bad things but he is not stupid and he's a canny political observer. Also he hates Reform because he sees them as pro-Israel, so it's not really his thing to big them up

    Ergo, if he says he is seeing this, I believe him - but of course it may just be a localised phenomenon meaning nothing nationwide

    God, we need more polls!
    YouGov MRP for Rochdale was Lab 49%, Con 15% Reform 14%, LD 8%, Green 7%, Other 7%
    The MRP polls look dodgier than Goodwin's.
  • novanova Posts: 690
    dixiedean said:

    Do you know what would be an effective system for electing a Party leader?
    50% members vote. 50% a random sample of the electorate.

    I'd go MPs over members.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    Chameleon said:

    Hahaha a second Tory PPC under investigation for betting on the election date.

    Is this breaking news or are you confusing a police officer with a PPC?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    HYUFD said:

    Protection Officers work for the security services not the Tory Party of course, in this case it seems the officer must have overheard something and bet accordingly

    Quite true - but with one of Sunak's close allies allegedly making a similar bet it does look like discipline is non-existent around the PM.

    Not his fault per se but seems indicative of the rolling shambles where people don't know how to behave.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited June 19
    Betting on politics using insider information. I reckon that could go to some dodgy places, as politicians get privileged information all the time and people in media see polling early etc.

    I am still baffled how US politicians who are either the worlds best stock market traders or might possibly using private information is just shrugged off. It seems a massive scandal, but its just glossed over.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Thing is.
    And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
    But imagine a thought experiment.
    Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
    July 5th we have PM Farage.
    What then?
    An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
    Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
    An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
    an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
    I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
    Etc., etc.
    NB.
    The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
    We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.

    Where things go from there is anyone's guess.

    Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).

    Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.

    PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
    For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau

    Latest Angus Reid poll modelled out

    CON: 228 seats (+109)
    BQ: 52 seats (+20)
    NDP; 37 seats (+12)
    LIB: 24 seats (-136)
    GRN: 2 seats (-)

    Conservative Supermajority Government

    https://x.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1803414496326647808
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hahaha a second Tory PPC under investigation for betting on the election date.

    Is this breaking news or are you confusing a police officer with a PPC?
    Breaking news on the Beeb - Bristol NW PPC in addition to the close protection officer & that other bloke we already know about.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,607
    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Thing is.
    And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
    But imagine a thought experiment.
    Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
    July 5th we have PM Farage.
    What then?
    An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
    Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
    An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
    an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
    I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
    Etc., etc.
    NB.
    The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
    We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.

    Where things go from there is anyone's guess.

    Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).

    Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.

    PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
    Sadly, I think you may be right.

    Events moving very quickly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    williamglenn said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Leon said:

    Benpointer said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Galloway getting his excuses in early maybe?
    Galloway is many bad things but he is not stupid and he's a canny political observer. Also he hates Reform because he sees them as pro-Israel, so it's not really his thing to big them up

    Ergo, if he says he is seeing this, I believe him - but of course it may just be a localised phenomenon meaning nothing nationwide

    God, we need more polls!
    YouGov MRP for Rochdale was Lab 49%, Con 15% Reform 14%, LD 8%, Green 7%, Other 7%
    The MRP polls look dodgier than Goodwin's.
    I don't know what's going to happen, so I'm generally looking for value at the margins.

    Betting odds generally narrow, IMHO, and cluster round the polling mean too much.

    DYOR.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,556
    dixiedean said:

    Don't know why anyone who doesn't need a postal vote would apply for one.
    It's a bit like walking out of a football game after 60 minutes, or watching half a movie and writing a review.

    You can use it to vote on the day by taking it to any polling station.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,676
    edited June 19
    numbertwelve said:

    nico679 said:

    The right wing media seem disinterested in trying to save the Tories which spells very bad news for them . Labour seem uninterested in going after Reform and could well regret that decision.

    I’m even less confident of what the final result might be come Election Day .

    I still think watch The Mail and The Express (and the Telegraph to some extent).

    If they feel like Reform and Farage is the way forward then it would not be a huge leap for them to desert the Tories. That readership is quite important for the Tory core vote, too.
    Murdoch will I predict tell the Sun to endorse Farage and Reform next week if Reform have overtaken the Tories by the end of the weekend in most polls. He would tell the Times to endorse Starmer to hedge his bets. The Express would follow the Sun and back Reform in that scenario, maybe even the Mail. The Telegraph will stay Tory though unless and until it ever merges with Reform.

    I think Goodwin was an outlier though, Norstat and Survation taken over a similar timeline still have the Tories ahead of Reform
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,237
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Thing is.
    And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
    But imagine a thought experiment.
    Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
    July 5th we have PM Farage.
    What then?
    An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
    Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
    An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
    an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
    I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
    Etc., etc.
    NB.
    The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
    If Reform are +/-5% from the Tories then I would expect some councillors to defect (possibly also a few MPs). I would also expect Reform to start winning councillors in future rounds of local elections and possibly get some Senedd members. This would then lead to a better pool to select candidates from for 2029.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    bobbob said:

    Is this illegal ? Any one know of any one else being convicted of “insider betting” ? A Met investigation is obviously different

    Was done to death on the last thread. Basically there's a common law offence of misconduct in public office, max sentence life imprisonment, which means you can have a go at police officers because you don't like the cut of their jib. Yesterday it was decided not to prosecute the detectives in charge of the Stephen Lawrence investigation with this because insufficient evidence. It was crap that anyone even thought the prosecution was a runner. The case against them is unbelievable incompetence, but that's not a crime in other contexts unless someone dies or is injured as a result.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited June 19
    Chameleon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hahaha a second Tory PPC under investigation for betting on the election date.

    Is this breaking news or are you confusing a police officer with a PPC?
    Breaking news on the Beeb - Bristol NW PPC in addition to the close protection officer & that other bloke we already know about.
    Laura Saunders? Did she work in #10 prior to GE being called or something? Its not a name I have ever heard before.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    Galloway and Farage are friends - despite policy disagreements. That said, Galloway probably is picking up something, in Rochdale. He’s an able campaigner, with a record of wins, as an independent.

    This poll is hard to believe, but there is a trend

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    HYUFD said:

    numbertwelve said:

    nico679 said:

    The right wing media seem disinterested in trying to save the Tories which spells very bad news for them . Labour seem uninterested in going after Reform and could well regret that decision.

    I’m even less confident of what the final result might be come Election Day .

    I still think watch The Mail and The Express (and the Telegraph to some extent).

    If they feel like Reform and Farage is the way forward then it would not be a huge leap for them to desert the Tories. That readership is quite important for the Tory core vote, too.
    Murdoch will I predict tell the Sun to endorse Farage and Reform next week if Reform have overtaken the Tories by the end of the weekend in most polls.

    I think Goodwin was an outlier though, Norstat and Survation taken over a similar timeline still have the Tories ahead of Reform
    How the media report this Goodwin poll is CRUCIAL

    If it makes the front pages/TV news/radio tomorrow then that alone could swing more momentum behind Reform. Suddenly they are the coming party, a surging new alternative - everyone hates the Tories, Labour are boring and Woke, the LDs are kinda pointless, the SNP weary and corrupt, and Farage is a good campaigner - but wait, there's a new kid in town and they might actually win, or at least give the other parties a real scare

    And so the bandwagon gathers pace: a self fulfilling prophecy

    On the other hand if the media ignores this poll Reform could fall back again. I imagine quite a few people in the BBC/C4/ITV/Sky are quietly arguing for it to be ignored

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,556
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Thing is.
    And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
    But imagine a thought experiment.
    Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
    July 5th we have PM Farage.
    What then?
    An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
    Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
    An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
    an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
    I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
    Etc., etc.
    NB.
    The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
    The country has been fucked by the Tories and I think Labour might contrive to make it WORSE

    So, if Reform get in, the worst they can do is be as bad as Labour or the Tories. Meh
    No, they can be much, much worse.

    Things can always be worse.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 225
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Thing is.
    And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
    But imagine a thought experiment.
    Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
    July 5th we have PM Farage.
    What then?
    An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
    Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
    An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
    an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
    I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
    Etc., etc.
    NB.
    The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
    If Reform are +/-5% from the Tories then I would expect some councillors to defect (possibly also a few MPs). I would also expect Reform to start winning councillors in future rounds of local elections and possibly get some Senedd members. This would then lead to a better pool to select candidates from for 2029.
    FWIW, I can only identify one councillor who has defected from the Conservatives to Reform since the May local elections - In North East Lincolnshire.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Sean_F said:

    Galloway and Farage are friends - despite policy disagreements. That said, Galloway probably is picking up something, in Rochdale. He’s an able campaigner, with a record of wins, as an independent.

    This poll is hard to believe, but there is a trend

    They may be friends - or at least comrades-in-arms as mavericks - but I see abslutely no reason, ideologically, for Galloway to ramp Reform?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,566
    Jesus that LBC phone in for Rishi was just horrible. Poor chap.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlfVqyqObcA
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,676
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    numbertwelve said:

    nico679 said:

    The right wing media seem disinterested in trying to save the Tories which spells very bad news for them . Labour seem uninterested in going after Reform and could well regret that decision.

    I’m even less confident of what the final result might be come Election Day .

    I still think watch The Mail and The Express (and the Telegraph to some extent).

    If they feel like Reform and Farage is the way forward then it would not be a huge leap for them to desert the Tories. That readership is quite important for the Tory core vote, too.
    Murdoch will I predict tell the Sun to endorse Farage and Reform next week if Reform have overtaken the Tories by the end of the weekend in most polls.

    I think Goodwin was an outlier though, Norstat and Survation taken over a similar timeline still have the Tories ahead of Reform
    How the media report this Goodwin poll is CRUCIAL

    If it makes the front pages/TV news/radio tomorrow then that alone could swing more momentum behind Reform. Suddenly they are the coming party, a surging new alternative - everyone hates the Tories, Labour are boring and Woke, the LDs are kinda pointless, the SNP weary and corrupt, and Farage is a good campaigner - but wait, there's a new kid in town and they might actually win, or at least give the other parties a real scare

    And so the bandwagon gathers pace: a self fulfilling prophecy

    On the other hand if the media ignores this poll Reform could fall back again. I imagine quite a few people in the BBC/C4/ITV/Sky are quietly arguing for it to be ignored

    Indeed, it was not mentioned in BBC or ITV headlines tonight.

    Rishi desperately needs the Tories to stay ahead of Reform now until his final head to head debate with Starmer next week when he can focus on undecideds
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    edited June 19
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Thing is.
    And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
    But imagine a thought experiment.
    Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
    July 5th we have PM Farage.
    What then?
    An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
    Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
    An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
    an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
    I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
    Etc., etc.
    NB.
    The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
    The country has been fucked by the Tories and I think Labour might contrive to make it WORSE

    So, if Reform get in, the worst they can do is be as bad as Labour or the Tories. Meh
    Yeah but.
    You've no evidence Labour would make it worse.
    That's your feelz. Which is fair enough for me. Emotion is of greater value than logic from my standpoint.
    However, there is a decent empirical view using the Enlightenment values of Reason, which you cherish so highly that Reform would be a fuckton worse than the Tories.
    Farage brooks no dissent. And didn't at least put in a shift like Sunak, when he was an MEP.
    His Party, and the governing Party of the country is a private company owned by him. The candidates haven't been vetted, nor have any experience. The manifesto is the polar opposite on almost everything other than immigration to the views of the very people who will have vote for it.
    It'd make the last eight years look like an oasis of calm.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,122
    AugustusCarp2 said:

    bobbob said:

    Is this illegal ? Any one know of any one else being convicted of “insider betting” ? A Met investigation is obviously different

    My understanding is that a wager/bet is a form of contract based on a future uncertain event. The event must be both in the future, and uncertain. So, if the policeman overheard something, or was told something, which meant that the future event was no longer uncertain, then the bet is voidable by the other party - presumably the poor honest hardworking bookie.

    The problem for the policeman is that in attempting to place the bet, he was acting dishonestly - he knew that the event was no longer uncertain, but pretended that it was. So the Met might well come down on him like a ton of bricks.
    The suspected offence here is apparently "misconduct in public office", rather than anything betting specific. If there were such a law presumably they'd have mentioned that too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    A couple of weeks ago, I noticed our local Con parish councillor canvassing on my estate. I haven't seen him again and haven't even had a leaflet. bear in mind, that I live in a ward that was 2 Con, 1 LD at last election and in a seat that has a Con majority of around 15k. It feels like the Cons have given up.

    I have a lot of sympathy for the Con Councillors and activists, who have been massively screwed over by the MPs and are now on the brunt of public anger. I have no sympathy at all for the MPs.

    Those were the same councillors and activists who agitated for Brexit, voted to make Johnson party leader and PM despite knowing full well what he was like, agitated for a self-defeating hard Brexit, and then voted for Truss. What sympathy do they deserve?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,930
    edited June 19
    LostPassword said:

    TimS said:

    Still more than two weeks to go.

    This election campaign does seem rather interminable.

    The thing is, for a whole bunch of people (including my mother), that's it. They have voted. The election campaign is over. They just have to wait for the counting. From their point of view the counting is going to take more than two weeks, more than twice as long as the STV counts in Ireland with multiple full recounts.

    You couldn't really have a shorter election campaign with so many people voting by post two weeks before everyone else.
    Including me, today. I registered for a postal in 2019 because I was going to miss polling day. Since then I’ve missed the ritual of going to vote, but not got round to cancelling the postal vote. So today I put it in the envelope and deposited it in the postbox. Jean Branch, Lib Dem (in a vast Labour majority seat).

    That’s it for my election too.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Chameleon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Chameleon said:

    Hahaha a second Tory PPC under investigation for betting on the election date.

    Is this breaking news or are you confusing a police officer with a PPC?
    Breaking news on the Beeb - Bristol NW PPC in addition to the close protection officer & that other bloke we already know about.
    Laura Saunders? Did she work in #10 prior to GE being called or something? Its not a name I have ever heard before.
    Yep, her. Worked for the Tories for 9 years, including in CCHQ (which probably means she's fine - it's blatantly obvious no-one near CCHQ have a clue about anything).
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    numbertwelve said:

    nico679 said:

    The right wing media seem disinterested in trying to save the Tories which spells very bad news for them . Labour seem uninterested in going after Reform and could well regret that decision.

    I’m even less confident of what the final result might be come Election Day .

    I still think watch The Mail and The Express (and the Telegraph to some extent).

    If they feel like Reform and Farage is the way forward then it would not be a huge leap for them to desert the Tories. That readership is quite important for the Tory core vote, too.
    Murdoch will I predict tell the Sun to endorse Farage and Reform next week if Reform have overtaken the Tories by the end of the weekend in most polls.

    I think Goodwin was an outlier though, Norstat and Survation taken over a similar timeline still have the Tories ahead of Reform
    How the media report this Goodwin poll is CRUCIAL

    If it makes the front pages/TV news/radio tomorrow then that alone could swing more momentum behind Reform. Suddenly they are the coming party, a surging new alternative - everyone hates the Tories, Labour are boring and Woke, the LDs are kinda pointless, the SNP weary and corrupt, and Farage is a good campaigner - but wait, there's a new kid in town and they might actually win, or at least give the other parties a real scare

    And so the bandwagon gathers pace: a self fulfilling prophecy

    On the other hand if the media ignores this poll Reform could fall back again. I imagine quite a few people in the BBC/C4/ITV/Sky are quietly arguing for it to be ignored

    Fully agree with this. It’s why I’ve been bullish on crossover prospects ever since Farage entered the race - the prospect of many Tories going “screw it, may as well vote for them, Starmer is gonna win anyway” could throw up all sorts of panic.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Farooq said:

    I see we're at the "praise George Galloway's intellect" stage of the ramping

    If you think Galloway is stupid then you are the stupid one. He doesn't constantly win by-elections by sheer luck. He's cunning, clever, rutheless and a really good orator. And I DETEST his quasi-Islamist politics
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,930
    Farooq said:

    I see we're at the "praise George Galloway's intellect" stage of the ramping

    To be fair he and Farage do both have impressive indefatigability. Worth a Dutch salute.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    Could the parties vying for first and second place in the polls in 5 years time be Reform and the Greens?
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Really does feel like end days now.

    Nah, this is just the warm up.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,967
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    numbertwelve said:

    nico679 said:

    The right wing media seem disinterested in trying to save the Tories which spells very bad news for them . Labour seem uninterested in going after Reform and could well regret that decision.

    I’m even less confident of what the final result might be come Election Day .

    I still think watch The Mail and The Express (and the Telegraph to some extent).

    If they feel like Reform and Farage is the way forward then it would not be a huge leap for them to desert the Tories. That readership is quite important for the Tory core vote, too.
    Murdoch will I predict tell the Sun to endorse Farage and Reform next week if Reform have overtaken the Tories by the end of the weekend in most polls.

    I think Goodwin was an outlier though, Norstat and Survation taken over a similar timeline still have the Tories ahead of Reform
    How the media report this Goodwin poll is CRUCIAL

    If it makes the front pages/TV news/radio tomorrow then that alone could swing more momentum behind Reform. Suddenly they are the coming party, a surging new alternative - everyone hates the Tories, Labour are boring and Woke, the LDs are kinda pointless, the SNP weary and corrupt, and Farage is a good campaigner - but wait, there's a new kid in town and they might actually win, or at least give the other parties a real scare

    And so the bandwagon gathers pace: a self fulfilling prophecy

    On the other hand if the media ignores this poll Reform could fall back again. I imagine quite a few people in the BBC/C4/ITV/Sky are quietly arguing for it to be ignored

    Indeed, it was not mentioned in BBC or ITV headlines tonight.

    Rishi desperately needs the Tories to stay ahead of Reform now until his final head to head debate with Starmer next week when he can focus on undecideds
    The TV media rarely lead with polls, which I think is a sensible choice.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,908
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Thing is.
    And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
    But imagine a thought experiment.
    Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
    July 5th we have PM Farage.
    What then?
    An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
    Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
    An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
    an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
    I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
    Etc., etc.
    NB.
    The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
    We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.

    Where things go from there is anyone's guess.

    Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).

    Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.

    PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
    For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau

    Latest Angus Reid poll modelled out

    CON: 228 seats (+109)
    BQ: 52 seats (+20)
    NDP; 37 seats (+12)
    LIB: 24 seats (-136)
    GRN: 2 seats (-)

    Conservative Supermajority Government

    https://x.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1803414496326647808
    Yes, I think that is my 2029 scenario in a nutshell. Farage 2029 isn't nailed on, and a lot can happen in 5 years. But people are mostly voting Labour at the moment to kick the Tories. After five years of tax rises and unwanted immgration, they may well be voting Farage to kick Labour.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    edited June 19
    The future belongs to Farage in exactly the same way as the future belonged to Nick Clegg in 2010. At least Nick Clegg topped the opinion polls in 2010.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,566
    Casino_Royale said:

    Could the parties vying for first and second place in the polls in 5 years time be Reform and the Greens?

    If we change to PR which we should, then yes.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 792
    edited June 19
    Casino_Royale said:

    It's hard to argue against buying Reform at 7 on the spreads at, say, £10 a seat.

    Yes, you'll probably lose £50-£60 but I view that as a 'stake' with a potentially large upside if something seismic does happen.

    NB: I don't expect something seismic to happen; Reform has zero ground game and infrastructure.

    *IF* you're gonna do that, then I would strongly suggest combining with laying 7 or more seats on Betfair at slightly under 3. I prefer the payoff curve.

    I am hoping for a reformgasm on the spreads. I want to short them but be stupid to hit the bid atm.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    FrancisUrquhart said:



    I am still baffled how US politicians who are either the worlds best stock market traders or might possibly using private information is just shrugged off. It seems a massive scandal, but its just glossed over.

    IIUC this story is fake. Some do well at investing and some do badly, but this is also true of the general population.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    dixiedean said:

    Don't know why anyone who doesn't need a postal vote would apply for one.
    It's a bit like walking out of a football game after 60 minutes, or watching half a movie and writing a review.

    The parties try and persuade their committed supporters to sign up for them, knowing that 80% of postal votes come back in a GE, compared to 60% of the remaining voters who make it to a polling station. And with postal voters they have two weeks to chase and remind them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    numbertwelve said:

    nico679 said:

    The right wing media seem disinterested in trying to save the Tories which spells very bad news for them . Labour seem uninterested in going after Reform and could well regret that decision.

    I’m even less confident of what the final result might be come Election Day .

    I still think watch The Mail and The Express (and the Telegraph to some extent).

    If they feel like Reform and Farage is the way forward then it would not be a huge leap for them to desert the Tories. That readership is quite important for the Tory core vote, too.
    Murdoch will I predict tell the Sun to endorse Farage and Reform next week if Reform have overtaken the Tories by the end of the weekend in most polls.

    I think Goodwin was an outlier though, Norstat and Survation taken over a similar timeline still have the Tories ahead of Reform
    How the media report this Goodwin poll is CRUCIAL

    If it makes the front pages/TV news/radio tomorrow then that alone could swing more momentum behind Reform. Suddenly they are the coming party, a surging new alternative - everyone hates the Tories, Labour are boring and Woke, the LDs are kinda pointless, the SNP weary and corrupt, and Farage is a good campaigner - but wait, there's a new kid in town and they might actually win, or at least give the other parties a real scare

    And so the bandwagon gathers pace: a self fulfilling prophecy

    On the other hand if the media ignores this poll Reform could fall back again. I imagine quite a few people in the BBC/C4/ITV/Sky are quietly arguing for it to be ignored

    Indeed, it was not mentioned in BBC or ITV headlines tonight.

    Rishi desperately needs the Tories to stay ahead of Reform now until his final head to head debate with Starmer next week when he can focus on undecideds
    Reform need one of the major papers to run it on the front page. OR they need another poll to produce similar results, then it cannot be ignored
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,497
    Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:

    - The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support
    - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival
    - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote
    - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,566
    A second Tory candidate, Laura Saunders, is being investigated by the Gambling Commission over a bet placed on the election date

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1803542917111488709

    The Tories are possibly finished. They really may never govern again.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    Farooq said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Could the parties vying for first and second place in the polls in 5 years time be Reform and the Greens?

    No
    Why?

    Environment could be toilet by 2030 and the Greens touch erogenous zones for the Left that no-one else can.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,676
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting tweet from Galloway


    "Farage is running away with this election because of the sheer emptiness of the leaders and programs of the Tory and Labour uniparty. In one ward we canvassed tonight @reformparty_uk had fully 50% of the vote."

    https://x.com/georgegalloway/status/1803197817214706022

    I also just spoke to a professional political friend who said: "there is definitely something happening, Reform are getting votes everywhere"

    Also entirely anecdotal so ANECDOTE KLAXON

    But still, interesting

    Thing is.
    And kudos to you for being one of the few to admit they are flirting with Reform.
    But imagine a thought experiment.
    Suppose Reform gains momentum and wins?
    July 5th we have PM Farage.
    What then?
    An utterly incoherent manifesto to be implemented. Run on the Pound.
    Uber Thatcherites in government. Voted in by folk who largely want higher public spending.
    An entire Cabinet of folk who've never even been
    an MP. Most won't have been Councillors.
    I know SPAD'S have a bad name. But where the hell do they get advice and guidance from? SkinheadSteve_95 isn't available 24/7 due to his other business interests.
    Etc., etc.
    NB.
    The same conditions apply in the more likely scenario that they come second.
    We don't get PM Farage. The Farage-gasm at best unites the right wing around 30%, giving him circa 100 seats and making him LOTO.

    Where things go from there is anyone's guess.

    Labour can't borrow more, because the markets won't wear it. They can't go for austerity, because their own MPs won't wear it. Which means tax rises. Which will be unpopular. Because they will have to be on people who can't easily avoid them (e.g. I can easily 'avoid' a CGT rise by not realising gains - rather harder for people to avoid 10p on fuel duty).

    Labour could find itself deeply unpopular within a year or two, with an ascendant Farage given more publicity, as LOTO, than he's ever been given before. And he's a demagogue. And he's good at it. Five years of Labour tax rises + rising immigration would be Farage's ideal platform as LOTO to have a chance at 2029.

    PM Farage in 2029 is not out of the question here. Still a long shot, but a million times more possible than it looked last week.
    For a sense of what might quickly happen to Starmer, even if he gets a huge majority, look at the latest polling in Canada and what is happening to Trudeau

    Latest Angus Reid poll modelled out

    CON: 228 seats (+109)
    BQ: 52 seats (+20)
    NDP; 37 seats (+12)
    LIB: 24 seats (-136)
    GRN: 2 seats (-)

    Conservative Supermajority Government

    https://x.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1803414496326647808
    Trudeau has been in government for 9 years though and won 3 general elections, in Canada it is just more natural swing of the pendulum. (Of course in 1993 the Canadian Tories got just 2 seats and even Rishi isn't doing that badly yet)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,282
    edited June 19
    Dumbosaurus said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    It's hard to argue against buying Reform at 7 on the spreads at, say, £10 a seat.

    Yes, you'll probably lose £50-£60 but I view that as a 'stake' with a potentially large upside if something seismic does happen.

    NB: I don't expect something seismic to happen; Reform has zero ground game and infrastructure.

    *IF* you're gonna do that, then I would strongly suggest combining with laying 7 or more seats on Betfair at slightly under 3.
    I've just done both.

    Edit: actually no I haven't because the Betfair lay (to cover the SPIN downside) just can kicks the profitability threshold to, like, 17 Reform seats.

    I'd break even 0-7 seats, then have a loss from 7-17 seats, and then start making a small profit.

    Seems silly. I'll take the £60 risk.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,566
    williamglenn said:

    Why Labour should be panicking and ratings in the mid-to-low 30s could be right:

    - The big Labour leads were soft because they were driven by dissatisfaction with the present government rather than active support
    - Labour's 'Ming vase' strategy was based on complacency and assumed that all they needed to guard against was swingback to Sunak and a Tory revival
    - The combination of Sunak's campaign flopping and the return of Farage has blown a hole in Labour's strategy because they need 'the Tories, the Tories, the Tories' to be able to consolidate and get out their vote
    - In addition, the general feeling that Labour have it in the bag means that they can't capitalise on the anti-establishment mood, and indeed there is a even an element of a protest vote against Labour in some places

    Latest Ashcroft poll

    Labour 43% (=)
    Con 18% (-3)
    Reform 18% (+3)
    LD 9% (+2)
    Green 7% (=)

    https://x.com/Samfr/status/1803543591622680949
This discussion has been closed.