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The East Midlands Flipchart? – politicalbetting.com

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    Heathener said:

    Did Leon’s buddies attack the website in his fit of pique?

    Good to be back although I’m turning in xx

    p.s. apologies @James_M if I came across as critical of your decision-making. I was trying to make a broader point, clumsily.

    Who you choose to vote for and why is a fascinating thing of itself. I get the point you were making. For some it will be ALL about how they will benefit from a set of policies. Others will be more outward facing and think what is best for others, or society at large.
    With Brexit (sorry) my sister and her husband asked their children which way they wanted my sister and her husband to vote as the effects would fall on them far more.
    I didn’t see much wrong with the initial post, but I see why you wrote what you did.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,063

    DavidL said:

    Oh, we're back. I thought PB had fallen. I was not able to get online for the last 30 minutes.

    I think @Heathener ’s poll showing the Tories on 46% caused the site to disappear into a puff of logic
    It was political anti-matter colliding with us.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798

    DavidL said:

    Oh, we're back. I thought PB had fallen. I was not able to get online for the last 20 minutes.

    Is it like when the nuke subs can't hear Radio 4?
    I am assuming the missiles are in flight as we speak. You can't get nearer to taking down the heart of the UK establishment than PB.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,692

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    The kitchen sink manifesto?

    Rishi Sunak will tomorrow unveil dozens of pledges amounting to nearly £20bn of tax cuts and public spending. But will it cut through to voters?

    Tax:
    * 2p cut in national insurance
    * Income tax cut for pensioners
    * Child benefit expansion

    Education
    * Scrap 'Mickey Mouse' degrees
    * Free childcare

    Defence
    * National service for 18 year olds
    * Defence to 2.5% by 2030

    Benefits
    * Welfare reform to save £12bn
    * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs

    Crime
    * 8,000 new police offices
    * Increased sentences for the most serious offences
    * US-style system of first and second degree murder

    Housing
    * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k
    * Ending no-fault evictions
    * Protecting green belt

    Immigration
    * Cap on work and family visas

    Illegal immigration
    * Double down on Rwanda
    * Talks with other third countries

    ECHR
    * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'

    Health
    * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses
    * Pledging to reduce waiting lists
    * Using AI to speed up diagnostics

    Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package

    Net zero
    * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'

    So, you're saying they will allow people to Self ID as sick?
    "Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package"

    I don't believe them. It is due Oct 2025. Well the cut down version. Sunak himself scrapped the 1p on NI to pay for social care when he became PM.

    If (ha,ha) Sunak is reelected this will be kicked into the long grass once again.

    The IFS are going to have a field day with this manifesto aren't they?
    Labour: The plan to scrap NI is a £46b blackhole in the tory finance plans

    Tory several weeks ago: Absolute rubbish. Just making up a number based on some musings by Hunt about a possible long term plan

    Also Tory tonight: Let's scrap 2 more pence off NI and move towards the scrapping of this terrible tax.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,122
    edited June 10
    Where have all the comments gone? *
    Long-time gassing ...


    Loss of PB in Leon's fevered imagination. It was the Chinese that did it !

    * Why is it all happening on my thread? Grrr.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411
    I am sure this has been done, but Reform's economic policy press conference is genuinely exciting (Tice's beginning part, not Nigel coming on and doing his politics, which is fine, but we've seen it all). Ending a £40bn PA bung to the city each year and ending the Banks QT programme costing further 10s of billions a year, are hugely radical policies, and should excite everyone here - especially those who claim to be socialists and for working people.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlyWf4pIYsc
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    The kitchen sink manifesto?

    Rishi Sunak will tomorrow unveil dozens of pledges amounting to nearly £20bn of tax cuts and public spending. But will it cut through to voters?

    Tax:
    * 2p cut in national insurance
    * Income tax cut for pensioners
    * Child benefit expansion

    Education
    * Scrap 'Mickey Mouse' degrees
    * Free childcare

    Defence
    * National service for 18 year olds
    * Defence to 2.5% by 2030

    Benefits
    * Welfare reform to save £12bn
    * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs

    Crime
    * 8,000 new police offices
    * Increased sentences for the most serious offences
    * US-style system of first and second degree murder

    Housing
    * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k
    * Ending no-fault evictions
    * Protecting green belt

    Immigration
    * Cap on work and family visas

    Illegal immigration
    * Double down on Rwanda
    * Talks with other third countries

    ECHR
    * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'

    Health
    * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses
    * Pledging to reduce waiting lists
    * Using AI to speed up diagnostics

    Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package

    Net zero
    * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'

    So, you're saying they will allow people to Self ID as sick?
    "Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package"

    I don't believe them. It is due Oct 2025. Well the cut down version. Sunak himself scrapped the 1p on NI to pay for social care when he became PM.

    If (ha,ha) Sunak is reelected this will be kicked into the long grass once again.

    The IFS are going to have a field day with this manifesto aren't they?
    Labour: The plan to scrap NI is a £46b blackhole in the tory finance plans

    Tory several weeks ago: Absolute rubbish. Just making up a number based on some musings by Hunt about a possible long term plan

    Also Tory tonight: Let's scrap 2 more pence off NI and move towards the scrapping of this terrible tax.
    Tories: It's not unfunded, we can improve productivity by £30b/year, reduce tax avoidance by £6b/year and stop welfare benefit fraud by £12b/year. We've found a whole forest of magic money trees.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,063
    edited June 10

    I am sure this has been done, but Reform's economic policy press conference is genuinely exciting (Tice's beginning part, not Nigel coming on and doing his politics, which is fine, but we've seen it all). Ending a £40bn PA bung to the city each year and ending the Banks QT programme costing further 10s of billions a year, are hugely radical policies, and should excite everyone here - especially those who claim to be socialists and for working people.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlyWf4pIYsc

    Well at least it's a bit different. I do wonder how many of their candidates really know the party's platform, but then even top figures seem to get surprised by other major party announcements, so it's not unheard of.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,491
    DM_Andy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    The kitchen sink manifesto?

    Rishi Sunak will tomorrow unveil dozens of pledges amounting to nearly £20bn of tax cuts and public spending. But will it cut through to voters?

    Tax:
    * 2p cut in national insurance
    * Income tax cut for pensioners
    * Child benefit expansion

    Education
    * Scrap 'Mickey Mouse' degrees
    * Free childcare

    Defence
    * National service for 18 year olds
    * Defence to 2.5% by 2030

    Benefits
    * Welfare reform to save £12bn
    * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs

    Crime
    * 8,000 new police offices
    * Increased sentences for the most serious offences
    * US-style system of first and second degree murder

    Housing
    * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k
    * Ending no-fault evictions
    * Protecting green belt

    Immigration
    * Cap on work and family visas

    Illegal immigration
    * Double down on Rwanda
    * Talks with other third countries

    ECHR
    * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'

    Health
    * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses
    * Pledging to reduce waiting lists
    * Using AI to speed up diagnostics

    Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package

    Net zero
    * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'

    So, you're saying they will allow people to Self ID as sick?
    "Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package"

    I don't believe them. It is due Oct 2025. Well the cut down version. Sunak himself scrapped the 1p on NI to pay for social care when he became PM.

    If (ha,ha) Sunak is reelected this will be kicked into the long grass once again.

    The IFS are going to have a field day with this manifesto aren't they?
    Labour: The plan to scrap NI is a £46b blackhole in the tory finance plans

    Tory several weeks ago: Absolute rubbish. Just making up a number based on some musings by Hunt about a possible long term plan

    Also Tory tonight: Let's scrap 2 more pence off NI and move towards the scrapping of this terrible tax.
    Tories: It's not unfunded, we can improve productivity by £30b/year, reduce tax avoidance by £6b/year and stop welfare benefit fraud by £12b/year. We've found a whole forest of magic money trees.

    It’s not the most expensive expensive panic attack in history, as claimed. Just a lot of nothing new to,catch the eye. But a severe problem can still come for the Tories as to if it balances, or if it leaves an enormous black whole.

    The biggest problem imo is the 2.5% defence spending by 2029. Not that the policy’s a problem, but how it was deliberately announced in the weeks after the budget, and not in the budget, because the OBR would have costed it in relation to tax rises or spending cuts to the tune of… was it £70B Rishi boasted it would cost? There’s players in this election, other than the bent and biased voices of opponents - think tanks and moderate media will look to find £70B of funding, not find it amongst the further tax cuts and spending pledges, and call it that Tories have a £70B+ black hole that makes the 2K Lie look like mere peanuts.

    It seemed a clever wheeze, not put the 2.5% through the budget and OBR, then hammer Starmer for not matching the pledge, but its impact on overall cost of the manifesto is going to be an issue, is my latest prediction.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,044
    .
    DM_Andy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    The kitchen sink manifesto?

    Rishi Sunak will tomorrow unveil dozens of pledges amounting to nearly £20bn of tax cuts and public spending. But will it cut through to voters?

    Tax:
    * 2p cut in national insurance
    * Income tax cut for pensioners
    * Child benefit expansion

    Education
    * Scrap 'Mickey Mouse' degrees
    * Free childcare

    Defence
    * National service for 18 year olds
    * Defence to 2.5% by 2030

    Benefits
    * Welfare reform to save £12bn
    * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs

    Crime
    * 8,000 new police offices
    * Increased sentences for the most serious offences
    * US-style system of first and second degree murder

    Housing
    * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k
    * Ending no-fault evictions
    * Protecting green belt

    Immigration
    * Cap on work and family visas

    Illegal immigration
    * Double down on Rwanda
    * Talks with other third countries

    ECHR
    * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'

    Health
    * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses
    * Pledging to reduce waiting lists
    * Using AI to speed up diagnostics

    Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package

    Net zero
    * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'

    So, you're saying they will allow people to Self ID as sick?
    "Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package"

    I don't believe them. It is due Oct 2025. Well the cut down version. Sunak himself scrapped the 1p on NI to pay for social care when he became PM.

    If (ha,ha) Sunak is reelected this will be kicked into the long grass once again.

    The IFS are going to have a field day with this manifesto aren't they?
    Labour: The plan to scrap NI is a £46b blackhole in the tory finance plans

    Tory several weeks ago: Absolute rubbish. Just making up a number based on some musings by Hunt about a possible long term plan

    Also Tory tonight: Let's scrap 2 more pence off NI and move towards the scrapping of this terrible tax.
    Tories: It's not unfunded, we can improve productivity by £30b/year, reduce tax avoidance by £6b/year and stop welfare benefit fraud by £12b/year. We've found a whole forest of magic money trees.

    Which somehow eluded us over the last decade.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,063
    DM_Andy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    The kitchen sink manifesto?

    Rishi Sunak will tomorrow unveil dozens of pledges amounting to nearly £20bn of tax cuts and public spending. But will it cut through to voters?

    Tax:
    * 2p cut in national insurance
    * Income tax cut for pensioners
    * Child benefit expansion

    Education
    * Scrap 'Mickey Mouse' degrees
    * Free childcare

    Defence
    * National service for 18 year olds
    * Defence to 2.5% by 2030

    Benefits
    * Welfare reform to save £12bn
    * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs

    Crime
    * 8,000 new police offices
    * Increased sentences for the most serious offences
    * US-style system of first and second degree murder

    Housing
    * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k
    * Ending no-fault evictions
    * Protecting green belt

    Immigration
    * Cap on work and family visas

    Illegal immigration
    * Double down on Rwanda
    * Talks with other third countries

    ECHR
    * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'

    Health
    * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses
    * Pledging to reduce waiting lists
    * Using AI to speed up diagnostics

    Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package

    Net zero
    * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'

    So, you're saying they will allow people to Self ID as sick?
    "Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package"

    I don't believe them. It is due Oct 2025. Well the cut down version. Sunak himself scrapped the 1p on NI to pay for social care when he became PM.

    If (ha,ha) Sunak is reelected this will be kicked into the long grass once again.

    The IFS are going to have a field day with this manifesto aren't they?
    Labour: The plan to scrap NI is a £46b blackhole in the tory finance plans

    Tory several weeks ago: Absolute rubbish. Just making up a number based on some musings by Hunt about a possible long term plan

    Also Tory tonight: Let's scrap 2 more pence off NI and move towards the scrapping of this terrible tax.
    Tories: It's not unfunded, we can improve productivity by £30b/year, reduce tax avoidance by £6b/year and stop welfare benefit fraud by £12b/year. We've found a whole forest of magic money trees.

    Just imagine how much could have been achieved if they'd done even some of it earlier (I'm assuming the argument would be not all of it could have been). They'd be doing better in the polls for a start.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,122
    edited June 10
    kle4 said:

    I am sure this has been done, but Reform's economic policy press conference is genuinely exciting (Tice's beginning part, not Nigel coming on and doing his politics, which is fine, but we've seen it all). Ending a £40bn PA bung to the city each year and ending the Banks QT programme costing further 10s of billions a year, are hugely radical policies, and should excite everyone here - especially those who claim to be socialists and for working people.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlyWf4pIYsc

    Well at least it's a bit different. I do wonder how many of their candidates really know the party's platform, but then even top figures seem to get surprised by other major party announcements, so it's not unheard of.
    They've realised that the City of London is full of the foreign.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,063
    If the missiles are flying and this is therefore the end, I can say only one thing if I don't make it.

    Hello.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411
    MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    I am sure this has been done, but Reform's economic policy press conference is genuinely exciting (Tice's beginning part, not Nigel coming on and doing his politics, which is fine, but we've seen it all). Ending a £40bn PA bung to the city each year and ending the Banks QT programme costing further 10s of billions a year, are hugely radical policies, and should excite everyone here - especially those who claim to be socialists and for working people.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlyWf4pIYsc

    Well at least it's a bit different. I do wonder how many of their candidates really know the party's platform, but then even top figures seem to get surprised by other major party announcements, so it's not unheard of.
    They've realised that the City of London is full of the foreign.
    What a remarkably asinine comment.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,209
    kle4 said:

    If they Tories cannot get closer to 30% than 20%, 100 seats may be the best they can hope for.

    Thirtyish percent and a dozen or so points behind Labour gets them to roughly a 1997/2001 outcome.

    Right now, that seems like a pretty aspirational target. Today, Rishi was in Crawley (104 on the defence list, needs an 8.4% swing) and Horsham (211 and 15.5%).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,122
    edited June 10

    MattW said:

    kle4 said:

    I am sure this has been done, but Reform's economic policy press conference is genuinely exciting (Tice's beginning part, not Nigel coming on and doing his politics, which is fine, but we've seen it all). Ending a £40bn PA bung to the city each year and ending the Banks QT programme costing further 10s of billions a year, are hugely radical policies, and should excite everyone here - especially those who claim to be socialists and for working people.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlyWf4pIYsc

    Well at least it's a bit different. I do wonder how many of their candidates really know the party's platform, but then even top figures seem to get surprised by other major party announcements, so it's not unheard of.
    They've realised that the City of London is full of the foreign.
    What a remarkably asinine comment.
    I must have been influenced by Ashfield's asinine * politics :smile:

    Or perhaps RefUK are being consistent. I have had their only MP for the last few months. The tagline for Lee Anderson for some time has been "I want my country back." One of the voting groups they are after is the nativist one.

    * (c) @NickPalmer XMP
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,798

    I am sure this has been done, but Reform's economic policy press conference is genuinely exciting (Tice's beginning part, not Nigel coming on and doing his politics, which is fine, but we've seen it all). Ending a £40bn PA bung to the city each year and ending the Banks QT programme costing further 10s of billions a year, are hugely radical policies, and should excite everyone here - especially those who claim to be socialists and for working people.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlyWf4pIYsc

    Even if it were true that there was a £40bn bung to the city (presumably in the form of a lender of last resort free of charge) it would be by far the most profitable and tax generating money the government spends by an order of magnitude. God knows, thing are not great now but if we managed to screw the profit, employment and tax generating centre that is the City we could have people genuinely starving in the streets.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    edited June 10
    Nunu5 said:

    kle4 said:

    If they Tories cannot get closer to 30% than 20%, 100 seats may be the best they can hope for.

    If it's less than 20% than they will get less than 50.
    Simply because they can't fall further down in some seats (the Liverpool's and Welsh Valleys) and so will have even bigger falls in the seats they can fall
    A bit like the libdems in 2015.
    Another way to think of this is sub 20% is 45% of their 2019 vote.
    So. A seat in which the Tories won 75% of the vote in 2019 would be reduced to 34% of the vote this time.
    You have a hard time winning the seat with that percentage.
    By contrast 30% nationally is two thirds of the 2019 vote. So the same seat would be 50% of the vote and an easy hold.

    I always think that is a better way to envisage what a cliff edge FPTP is.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,491
    edited June 10

    Tomorrow:

    Tories will implore that the sick need to go back to work

    Unless their name is David Duguid

    If you keep hammering away your mission is value for money for taxes, safe streets and a low crime community, you will walk it.

    I don’t want to sound like Farage with “it really is that simple” but, it really is that simple.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,692
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Oh, we're back. I thought PB had fallen. I was not able to get online for the last 20 minutes.

    Is it like when the nuke subs can't hear Radio 4?
    I am assuming the missiles are in flight as we speak. You can't get nearer to taking down the heart of the UK establishment than PB.
    Certainly we seem to attract Putin's little gnomes every Saturday.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    Nigelb said:

    .

    DM_Andy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    The kitchen sink manifesto?

    Rishi Sunak will tomorrow unveil dozens of pledges amounting to nearly £20bn of tax cuts and public spending. But will it cut through to voters?

    Tax:
    * 2p cut in national insurance
    * Income tax cut for pensioners
    * Child benefit expansion

    Education
    * Scrap 'Mickey Mouse' degrees
    * Free childcare

    Defence
    * National service for 18 year olds
    * Defence to 2.5% by 2030

    Benefits
    * Welfare reform to save £12bn
    * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs

    Crime
    * 8,000 new police offices
    * Increased sentences for the most serious offences
    * US-style system of first and second degree murder

    Housing
    * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k
    * Ending no-fault evictions
    * Protecting green belt

    Immigration
    * Cap on work and family visas

    Illegal immigration
    * Double down on Rwanda
    * Talks with other third countries

    ECHR
    * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'

    Health
    * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses
    * Pledging to reduce waiting lists
    * Using AI to speed up diagnostics

    Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package

    Net zero
    * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'

    So, you're saying they will allow people to Self ID as sick?
    "Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package"

    I don't believe them. It is due Oct 2025. Well the cut down version. Sunak himself scrapped the 1p on NI to pay for social care when he became PM.

    If (ha,ha) Sunak is reelected this will be kicked into the long grass once again.

    The IFS are going to have a field day with this manifesto aren't they?
    Labour: The plan to scrap NI is a £46b blackhole in the tory finance plans

    Tory several weeks ago: Absolute rubbish. Just making up a number based on some musings by Hunt about a possible long term plan

    Also Tory tonight: Let's scrap 2 more pence off NI and move towards the scrapping of this terrible tax.
    Tories: It's not unfunded, we can improve productivity by £30b/year, reduce tax avoidance by £6b/year and stop welfare benefit fraud by £12b/year. We've found a whole forest of magic money trees.

    Which somehow eluded us over the last decade.
    Yep they could have implemented the productivity gains a decade again, unless those gains are from AI in which case LOL...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,618

    glw said:

    Sunak must be feeling awfully releaved that after his D-Day commemoration debacle that some Reform candidates are running on a pro-Hitler platform.

    It is hard to keep up to be honest.

    Farage: It's an absolute disgrace he did not fully honour D-Day.

    Reform candidates: Our lads should never have been there in the first place.
    To be fair, by "Our lads" the Reform candidates might well mean the SS, in which case they are right...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,692
    Tory manifesto to once again increase the demand side of property and not the supply side saying Newsnight.

    Help to buy 2.0
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    kle4 said:

    If the missiles are flying and this is therefore the end, I can say only one thing if I don't make it.

    Hello.

    What makes a man turn neutral? Lust for gold? Power? Or were you just born with a heart full of neutrality?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,122
    One to take under advisement, but potentially quite serious because SCOTUS justices are appointed for life, and it does not fit the role if personal opinions cannot be separated from the role of the Judge.

    US Supreme Court Justice Alito commenting on culture war issues, and how he thinks there is no middle way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqGJepdOdJg
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,692
    Telegraph reporting that Sunak will offer landlords no CGT if they sell to the tenants.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397

    Tory manifesto to once again increase the demand side of property and not the supply side saying Newsnight.

    Help to buy 2.0

    283.0 surely.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411
    DavidL said:

    I am sure this has been done, but Reform's economic policy press conference is genuinely exciting (Tice's beginning part, not Nigel coming on and doing his politics, which is fine, but we've seen it all). Ending a £40bn PA bung to the city each year and ending the Banks QT programme costing further 10s of billions a year, are hugely radical policies, and should excite everyone here - especially those who claim to be socialists and for working people.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlyWf4pIYsc

    Even if it were true that there was a £40bn bung to the city (presumably in the form of a lender of last resort free of charge) it would be by far the most profitable and tax generating money the government spends by an order of magnitude. God knows, thing are not great now but if we managed to screw the profit, employment and tax generating centre that is the City we could have people genuinely starving in the streets.
    They survived without the £40bn when the base rate was nearly zero, so I'm not sure how or why they're going to be starving on the street without it now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,592
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1800265431078551973

    If Apple integrates OpenAI at the OS level, then Apple devices will be banned at my companies. That is an unacceptable security violation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,044
    MattW said:

    One to take under advisement, but potentially quite serious because SCOTUS justices are appointed for life, and it does not fit the role if personal opinions cannot be separated from the role of the Judge.

    US Supreme Court Justice Alito commenting on culture war issues, and how he thinks there is no middle way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqGJepdOdJg

    He should resign and run for office.

    But of course he believes neither in democracy nor a constitution which he doesn't himself define.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411
    edited June 10
    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    Sunak must be feeling awfully releaved that after his D-Day commemoration debacle that some Reform candidates are running on a pro-Hitler platform.

    It is hard to keep up to be honest.

    Farage: It's an absolute disgrace he did not fully honour D-Day.

    Reform candidates: Our lads should never have been there in the first place.
    To be fair, by "Our lads" the Reform candidates might well mean the SS, in which case they are right...
    Amazing how "they've" become plural - is he cloning himself, or would you both be spinning your tits off?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    Telegraph reporting that Sunak will offer landlords no CGT if they sell to the tenants.

    That's going to cost a fortune in lost tax revenue and won't help anything because few tenants can afford to pay 8 times average earnings...
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775
    Nigelb said:

    .

    DM_Andy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    The kitchen sink manifesto?

    Rishi Sunak will tomorrow unveil dozens of pledges amounting to nearly £20bn of tax cuts and public spending. But will it cut through to voters?

    Tax:
    * 2p cut in national insurance
    * Income tax cut for pensioners
    * Child benefit expansion

    Education
    * Scrap 'Mickey Mouse' degrees
    * Free childcare

    Defence
    * National service for 18 year olds
    * Defence to 2.5% by 2030

    Benefits
    * Welfare reform to save £12bn
    * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs

    Crime
    * 8,000 new police offices
    * Increased sentences for the most serious offences
    * US-style system of first and second degree murder

    Housing
    * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k
    * Ending no-fault evictions
    * Protecting green belt

    Immigration
    * Cap on work and family visas

    Illegal immigration
    * Double down on Rwanda
    * Talks with other third countries

    ECHR
    * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'

    Health
    * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses
    * Pledging to reduce waiting lists
    * Using AI to speed up diagnostics

    Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package

    Net zero
    * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'

    So, you're saying they will allow people to Self ID as sick?
    "Social care
    * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package"

    I don't believe them. It is due Oct 2025. Well the cut down version. Sunak himself scrapped the 1p on NI to pay for social care when he became PM.

    If (ha,ha) Sunak is reelected this will be kicked into the long grass once again.

    The IFS are going to have a field day with this manifesto aren't they?
    Labour: The plan to scrap NI is a £46b blackhole in the tory finance plans

    Tory several weeks ago: Absolute rubbish. Just making up a number based on some musings by Hunt about a possible long term plan

    Also Tory tonight: Let's scrap 2 more pence off NI and move towards the scrapping of this terrible tax.
    Tories: It's not unfunded, we can improve productivity by £30b/year, reduce tax avoidance by £6b/year and stop welfare benefit fraud by £12b/year. We've found a whole forest of magic money trees.

    Which somehow eluded us over the last decade.
    Remarkable policy, the Norwegian Blue magic money tree, idn'it, ay? Beautiful plumage!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,618

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    Sunak must be feeling awfully releaved that after his D-Day commemoration debacle that some Reform candidates are running on a pro-Hitler platform.

    It is hard to keep up to be honest.

    Farage: It's an absolute disgrace he did not fully honour D-Day.

    Reform candidates: Our lads should never have been there in the first place.
    To be fair, by "Our lads" the Reform candidates might well mean the SS, in which case they are right...
    Amazing how "they've" become plural - is he cloning himself, or would you both be spinning your tits off?
    I shall be surprised if that is the last Nazi and Putin apologist amongst the Reform candidates, so they is quite a reasonable.

    In any case "they" might be their preferred pronoun, depending on gender identification.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,692
    eek said:

    Telegraph reporting that Sunak will offer landlords no CGT if they sell to the tenants.

    That's going to cost a fortune in lost tax revenue and won't help anything because few tenants can afford to pay 8 times average earnings...
    If no tenants can afford the mortgage then it wont cost a fortune in lost CGT as no landlord will be able to sell to tenants surely?

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Leon said:

    We need to name and shame the PBers who have refused to accept the monumental likelihood of Covid lab leak right up until recent weeks

    @bondegezou
    @turbotubbs
    @Farooq

    Maybe

    @JosiasJessop

    Absolute fucking wankers. We need groveling apologies

    The thing is, you treat it as a certainty - as your post shows. I assume you demand apologies from people who look at the evidence and come to a different conclusion because you are actually uncertain. Or because you need to stroke your ego. Or that you are actually utterly stoopid.

    It's obvious why you want people to think it was a lab-leak: as it's a short hop, skip and a jump to the more DRAMATIC! theory of it being an engineered virus. Which is where you want this to end up.

    But as I've said passim: the thing we can 100% blame the Chinese for is their secrecy and lies at the beginning of this hideous mess. In a way the origins of the virus matter little: what matters is that, if China had acted differently in late 2019 or early 2020, the outbreak might have been localised and the world might have been spared this tragedy.

    And that is what they should be excoriated for. And it's something that is, IMO, beyond doubt. They acted appallingly and let the virus spread.

    (And for clarity: it could have been a lab-leak. Or it could have been a 'natural' occurrence from the wet market. I don't know. And only fools would say they know for sure.
    Why bother "arguing" with sophists, even IF they are sincerely about their sophisms?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 794
    Seats betting post

    Backed Conservatives down to 1.4 in Richmond and Northallerton. It remains backable there, £50 keeps appearing.

    My general betting - and masturbatory - position is "Tory wipeout" so this is in some ways a hedge, but I think it's value by itself as well. Equates to 53 Tory Seats on Electoral Calculus for the PM to lose. Plenty of independents and binface etc to split the anti-Sunak vote. And if he loses I'll be overjoyed and not care about the £100 lost anyway which would be overtaken by other gains.

    Of course the risk here is Sunak pulls out but that would be megalolz.

    I am also continuing to lay Corbyn and of the opinion he's a great lay down at below 1.5 area as he is - indeed I still think he should be trading above evens. But I'm not in Islington. I base this solely on intuition and welcome input, especially from the guy whose screename I've forgotten beginning with A who responded previously.
  • biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    What fantastic news - and yet oddly for the level of interest turnout could be well down.

    A record number of candidates are standing in this year's general election.

    More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggeng6kqxo

    Excellent news for the public finances. That’s £500 per deposit from a good chunk of them.
    I wonder if £500 actually covers the associated admin costs? I rather doubt it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,061
    If anybody here is in the pro-Koala camp, here is an argument from the I Hate Koalas party

    "...Koalas are fucking horrible animals. They have...”

    Enjoy :)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    Sunak must be feeling awfully releaved that after his D-Day commemoration debacle that some Reform candidates are running on a pro-Hitler platform.

    It is hard to keep up to be honest.

    Farage: It's an absolute disgrace he did not fully honour D-Day.

    Reform candidates: Our lads should never have been there in the first place.
    To be fair, by "Our lads" the Reform candidates might well mean the SS, in which case they are right...
    Amazing how "they've" become plural - is he cloning himself, or would you both be spinning your tits off?
    I shall be surprised if that is the last Nazi and Putin apologist amongst the Reform candidates, so they is quite a reasonable.

    In any case "they" might be their preferred pronoun, depending on gender identification.
    Your use of 's' after candidate would seem to denote a plural, call me old-fashioned.

    You strike me as burning up with ideological frenzy - you don't even have the detachment to acknowledge when NF has performed well in a debate, and now you're telling acknowledged untruths (that you feel are 'reasonable' using logic that would make Mystic Meg blush) on a web form full of seasoned politics nerds.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    edited June 10
    Deleted. Double post. Blockquote and fat finger combination.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,128
    edited June 10
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    Sunak must be feeling awfully releaved that after his D-Day commemoration debacle that some Reform candidates are running on a pro-Hitler platform.

    It is hard to keep up to be honest.

    Farage: It's an absolute disgrace he did not fully honour D-Day.

    Reform candidates: Our lads should never have been there in the first place.
    To be fair, by "Our lads" the Reform candidates might well mean the SS, in which case they are right...
    Amazing how "they've" become plural - is he cloning himself, or would you both be spinning your tits off?
    I shall be surprised if that is the last Nazi and Putin apologist amongst the Reform candidates, so they is quite a reasonable.

    In any case "they" might be their preferred pronoun, depending on gender identification.
    The really striking thing about this story is that the :*official Reform spokesman* quoted briefly backed this point of view, not just the candidate.

    I suspect that part of the reason the Tories and parts of the media may not be making too much of it there is that such an approach could backfire and start to gently normalise such views, in the current climate of enthusiasm for Reform, in some quarters.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,870
    pm215 said:

    TimS said:

    Cicero said:

    Labour has dropped a plan to reintroduce a cap on how much people are allowed to save into their pensions before paying tax.

    Under the pensions lifetime allowance, pension pots over £1.07m faced an annual tax of £40,000 on average.

    The cap was scrapped in April but Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves had vowed to bring it back, saying it could raise £800m a year.

    However, her party has now reversed the decision ahead of the release of its manifesto on Thursday, reportedly because the cap would add uncertainty for savers and be complex to reintroduce.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd11n2krmm4o

    Do Starmer and Reeves have the courage to do anything ?

    That really is pathetic. ISAs have ended up becoming a massive benefit for the rich and only ho hum for middle earners. Of course there should be a cap.
    Which is all hunky-dory until you find that the surgeon who could save your life has taken early retirement.
    This isn’t ISAs, it’s the pension lifetime cap which means you actually start paying a very high marginal rate of tax if your pension rises above the ceiling.

    There’s an argument for reducing the ISA allowance, though not much fiscal payoff because government only benefits many years hence when people cash in their non-ISA gains. Whereas pensions tax changes have a fiscal effect straightaway
    So with the lifetime cap, presumably this mostly causes problems for people like doctors whose pension scheme is fixed and defined-benefit? In a defined-contribution scheme you could just stop contributing.
    It mainly affects higher up public sector workers and ceo and board level people. The vast majority of people aren't getting near a million pound pension pot
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,050

    kle4 said:

    If they Tories cannot get closer to 30% than 20%, 100 seats may be the best they can hope for.

    Thirtyish percent and a dozen or so points behind Labour gets them to roughly a 1997/2001 outcome.

    Right now, that seems like a pretty aspirational target. Today, Rishi was in Crawley (104 on the defence list, needs an 8.4% swing) and Horsham (211 and 15.5%).
    On the other hand, you wouldn’t risk him alienating voters in the seats that matter would you? So they must be concentrating on defending seat 212….
  • novanova Posts: 690

    DavidL said:

    I am sure this has been done, but Reform's economic policy press conference is genuinely exciting (Tice's beginning part, not Nigel coming on and doing his politics, which is fine, but we've seen it all). Ending a £40bn PA bung to the city each year and ending the Banks QT programme costing further 10s of billions a year, are hugely radical policies, and should excite everyone here - especially those who claim to be socialists and for working people.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlyWf4pIYsc

    Even if it were true that there was a £40bn bung to the city (presumably in the form of a lender of last resort free of charge) it would be by far the most profitable and tax generating money the government spends by an order of magnitude. God knows, thing are not great now but if we managed to screw the profit, employment and tax generating centre that is the City we could have people genuinely starving in the streets.
    They survived without the £40bn when the base rate was nearly zero, so I'm not sure how or why they're going to be starving on the street without it now.
    If it's linked to the base rate, how can they use it to cut taxes?

    I'm certain that every time I've taken out a mortgage, the adviser has been very clear that rates can go up and down. I'm sure Tice has been told the same?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    One to take under advisement, but potentially quite serious because SCOTUS justices are appointed for life, and it does not fit the role if personal opinions cannot be separated from the role of the Judge.

    US Supreme Court Justice Alito commenting on culture war issues, and how he thinks there is no middle way.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqGJepdOdJg

    He should resign and run for office.

    But of course he believes neither in democracy nor a constitution which he doesn't himself define.
    Alito is a poster child for the Federalist Society. Which (as it's name suggests) do NOT believe in democracy, and certainly NOT with any other but their own (fruitcake) constitutional interpretations.

    Alito is Scalia Lite. But with more leverage, thanks to Cheney-Bush administration and Trump.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,404

    Seats betting post

    Backed Conservatives down to 1.4 in Richmond and Northallerton. It remains backable there, £50 keeps appearing.

    My general betting - and masturbatory - position is "Tory wipeout" so this is in some ways a hedge, but I think it's value by itself as well. Equates to 53 Tory Seats on Electoral Calculus for the PM to lose. Plenty of independents and binface etc to split the anti-Sunak vote. And if he loses I'll be overjoyed and not care about the £100 lost anyway which would be overtaken by other gains.

    Of course the risk here is Sunak pulls out but that would be megalolz.

    I am also continuing to lay Corbyn and of the opinion he's a great lay down at below 1.5 area as he is - indeed I still think he should be trading above evens. But I'm not in Islington. I base this solely on intuition and welcome input, especially from the guy whose screename I've forgotten beginning with A who responded previously.

    Corbyn is a fantastic lay.

    (stop sniggering at the back)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,633

    Seats betting post

    Backed Conservatives down to 1.4 in Richmond and Northallerton. It remains backable there, £50 keeps appearing.

    My general betting - and masturbatory - position is "Tory wipeout" so this is in some ways a hedge, but I think it's value by itself as well. Equates to 53 Tory Seats on Electoral Calculus for the PM to lose. Plenty of independents and binface etc to split the anti-Sunak vote. And if he loses I'll be overjoyed and not care about the £100 lost anyway which would be overtaken by other gains.

    Of course the risk here is Sunak pulls out but that would be megalolz.

    I am also continuing to lay Corbyn and of the opinion he's a great lay down at below 1.5 area as he is - indeed I still think he should be trading above evens. But I'm not in Islington. I base this solely on intuition and welcome input, especially from the guy whose screename I've forgotten beginning with A who responded previously.

    Corbyn is a fantastic lay.

    (stop sniggering at the back)
    You are Owen Jones and I claim my £5
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    What fantastic news - and yet oddly for the level of interest turnout could be well down.

    A record number of candidates are standing in this year's general election.

    More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggeng6kqxo

    Excellent news for the public finances. That’s £500 per deposit from a good chunk of them.
    I wonder if £500 actually covers the associated admin costs? I rather doubt it.
    It seems to have been £500 for as long as I can remember. Is fiscal drag pulling in hundreds more no-hopers into the fray?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    What fantastic news - and yet oddly for the level of interest turnout could be well down.

    A record number of candidates are standing in this year's general election.

    More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggeng6kqxo

    Excellent news for the public finances. That’s £500 per deposit from a good chunk of them.
    I wonder if £500 actually covers the associated admin costs? I rather doubt it.
    It's £500 per candidate, not per seat.
    There are six candidates in my seat. That's a lovely fat kerching of £3,000, of which only £500 will need to be returned by Sefton council.

    Sure, you're probably right even £3k won't cover it, but the fee is simply to stop idiots and chancers running.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,889
    edited June 10
    MattW said:

    Where have all the comments gone? *
    Long-time gassing ...


    Loss of PB in Leon's fevered imagination. It was the Chinese that did it !

    * Why is it all happening on my thread? Grrr.

    And a very fine thread it is!

    I had lunch on Sunday in Knutsford which is a village in the Constituency of Tatton. My straw poll of young voters who barely realised there was an election in the offing were 1 Lib Dem because they were the only ones to take sanitary towels in rivers seriously and 2 Tories because they liked Esther McVey.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397

    Seats betting post

    Backed Conservatives down to 1.4 in Richmond and Northallerton. It remains backable there, £50 keeps appearing.

    My general betting - and masturbatory - position is "Tory wipeout" so this is in some ways a hedge, but I think it's value by itself as well. Equates to 53 Tory Seats on Electoral Calculus for the PM to lose. Plenty of independents and binface etc to split the anti-Sunak vote. And if he loses I'll be overjoyed and not care about the £100 lost anyway which would be overtaken by other gains.

    Of course the risk here is Sunak pulls out but that would be megalolz.

    I am also continuing to lay Corbyn and of the opinion he's a great lay down at below 1.5 area as he is - indeed I still think he should be trading above evens. But I'm not in Islington. I base this solely on intuition and welcome input, especially from the guy whose screename I've forgotten beginning with A who responded previously.

    Corbyn is a fantastic lay.

    (stop sniggering at the back)
    Diane Abbott has entered the chat.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    edited June 10

    Tory manifesto to once again increase the demand side of property and not the supply side saying Newsnight.

    Help to buy 2.0

    So that is Labour and Tory promising Help, sorry Freedom, to Buy. Labour's is permanent (which is a terrible idea), is the Tories?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    What fantastic news - and yet oddly for the level of interest turnout could be well down.

    A record number of candidates are standing in this year's general election.

    More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggeng6kqxo

    Excellent news for the public finances. That’s £500 per deposit from a good chunk of them.
    I wonder if £500 actually covers the associated admin costs? I rather doubt it.
    It seems to have been £500 for as long as I can remember. Is fiscal drag pulling in hundreds more no-hopers into the fray?
    Since 1983? I think it was increased from £100 which was the level since 1918. I might have the dates out a bit

    The threshold to get your deposit back was reduced from 12.5% to 5% in 1983.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    edited June 10

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    What fantastic news - and yet oddly for the level of interest turnout could be well down.

    A record number of candidates are standing in this year's general election.

    More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggeng6kqxo

    Excellent news for the public finances. That’s £500 per deposit from a good chunk of them.
    I wonder if £500 actually covers the associated admin costs? I rather doubt it.
    It seems to have been £500 for as long as I can remember. Is fiscal drag pulling in hundreds more no-hopers into the fray?
    Didn't the Blessed Margaret increase the fee? And simultaneously reduce the percentage needed to keep it?
    ISTR this from my youth.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Seats betting post

    Backed Conservatives down to 1.4 in Richmond and Northallerton. It remains backable there, £50 keeps appearing.

    My general betting - and masturbatory - position is "Tory wipeout" so this is in some ways a hedge, but I think it's value by itself as well. Equates to 53 Tory Seats on Electoral Calculus for the PM to lose. Plenty of independents and binface etc to split the anti-Sunak vote. And if he loses I'll be overjoyed and not care about the £100 lost anyway which would be overtaken by other gains.

    Of course the risk here is Sunak pulls out but that would be megalolz.

    I am also continuing to lay Corbyn and of the opinion he's a great lay down at below 1.5 area as he is - indeed I still think he should be trading above evens. But I'm not in Islington. I base this solely on intuition and welcome input, especially from the guy whose screename I've forgotten beginning with A who responded previously.

    Corbyn is a fantastic lay.

    (stop sniggering at the back)
    I was going to have a look, but can’t find the constituency markets on BX anymore. Don’t suppose you have a link by any chance?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    What fantastic news - and yet oddly for the level of interest turnout could be well down.

    A record number of candidates are standing in this year's general election.

    More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggeng6kqxo

    Excellent news for the public finances. That’s £500 per deposit from a good chunk of them.
    I wonder if £500 actually covers the associated admin costs? I rather doubt it.
    It's £500 per candidate, not per seat.
    There are six candidates in my seat. That's a lovely fat kerching of £3,000, of which only £500 will need to be returned by Sefton council.

    Sure, you're probably right even £3k won't cover it, but the fee is simply to stop idiots and chancers running.
    You've no Tory candidate then?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    edited June 10
    Rishi Sunak will unveil tax breaks for landlords on Tuesday as he puts reducing the tax burden and boosting home ownership at the heart of the Conservative general election manifesto. The Telegraph can reveal that the Prime Minister will promise to scrap capital gains tax for landlords who sell their property to tenants. The scheme would last two years.

    The return of the Help to Buy scheme and a vow to abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers on properties worth less than £425,000 will also be included in the manifesto.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968

    It is ridiculous that we are not even halfway through the general election campaign. Six weeks is far too long.

    Are you not entertained....
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    Caroline Lucas has just said on Newsnight that her ideal election result is a hung Parliament with the LibDems holding the balance of power… because then they’d get PR introduced.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,050
    edited June 10

    Rishi Sunak will unveil tax breaks for landlords on Tuesday as he puts reducing the tax burden and boosting home ownership at the heart of the Conservative general election manifesto. The Telegraph can reveal that the Prime Minister will promise to scrap capital gains tax for landlords who sell their property to tenants. The scheme would last two years.

    The return of the Help to Buy scheme and a vow to abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers on properties worth less than £425,000 will also be included in the manifesto.

    Excellent. I shall be able to spend three weeks going off on one about how stupid the Help to Big schemes are as national policy, even if they might be attractive retail politics for individuals.
  • Test
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    It is ridiculous that we are not even halfway through the general election campaign. Six weeks is far too long.

    It is, although it’s been entertaining fare so far.
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 103
    Just catching up. No need to apologise @Heathener, I wasn't overly concerned with your original reply. Although thank you @wooliedyed for your support.

    I was trying to comment on why, despite my dislike of the current Conservatives, in my specific seat, due to the principal opponent, my decision to stick was slightly easier. I outlined in more detail my view a few days ago.

    It wasn't intended to be a philosophical musing and I think the original reply wrongly took my comments on the Lib Dem manifesto and projected that to my whole political viewpoint and motivations for voting.

    While I haven't posted much I've actually been on the site for over a decade. Indeed I went to one of the first ever pb.com meet ups in Westminster 😁
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    Test

    Maybe we're closer to WWIII than I thought.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Caroline Lucas has just said on Newsnight that her ideal election result is a hung Parliament with the LibDems holding the balance of power… because then they’d get PR introduced.

    And cut their number of seats in half!
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 10
    Pissing around with the Conservative Party has only ever bought him and his family misery and shame.

    Should'a followed your dad's advice, Rishi, and become a doctor.

    Just imagine, right now, you could be like, actually liked! A genuine pillar of the community. Able to go to the shops without security and the threat of getting egged.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397

    Caroline Lucas has just said on Newsnight that her ideal election result is a hung Parliament with the LibDems holding the balance of power… because then they’d get PR introduced.

    Just like last time!
    Er.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 794
    edited June 10

    Seats betting post

    Backed Conservatives down to 1.4 in Richmond and Northallerton. It remains backable there, £50 keeps appearing.

    My general betting - and masturbatory - position is "Tory wipeout" so this is in some ways a hedge, but I think it's value by itself as well. Equates to 53 Tory Seats on Electoral Calculus for the PM to lose. Plenty of independents and binface etc to split the anti-Sunak vote. And if he loses I'll be overjoyed and not care about the £100 lost anyway which would be overtaken by other gains.

    Of course the risk here is Sunak pulls out but that would be megalolz.

    I am also continuing to lay Corbyn and of the opinion he's a great lay down at below 1.5 area as he is - indeed I still think he should be trading above evens. But I'm not in Islington. I base this solely on intuition and welcome input, especially from the guy whose screename I've forgotten beginning with A who responded previously.

    Corbyn is a fantastic lay.

    (stop sniggering at the back)
    I was going to have a look, but can’t find the constituency markets on BX anymore. Don’t suppose you have a link by any chance?
    Corbyn: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.229310774

    Rishi: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.229683396

    Both markets thin but I have been able to put three figure sums on easily enough without distorting them.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,050

    Caroline Lucas has just said on Newsnight that her ideal election result is a hung Parliament with the LibDems holding the balance of power… because then they’d get PR introduced.

    So, logically, she wants more people to vote Tory…?

    Huge story. Greens back Tories!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1800265431078551973

    If Apple integrates OpenAI at the OS level, then Apple devices will be banned at my companies. That is an unacceptable security violation.

    Wait until Elon hears about Google.
    Google search doesn’t regurgitate what you feed it to others.

    So a Google search in a company won’t result in the data you search on ending up in results outside the company (yes, there are issues there, but it’s fairly true)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    It is ridiculous that we are not even halfway through the general election campaign. Six weeks is far too long.

    Are you not entertained....
    Before the election was (finally) called I was bemoaning how becalmed and moribund PB had become. Yay for the election spicing things up. Except it hasn’t really. The polls are stuck, the Tories are awful and nothing anyone says is changing things. Is democracy served well by such a long mandated campaign? I’m not sure.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968
    edited June 10
    biggles said:

    Rishi Sunak will unveil tax breaks for landlords on Tuesday as he puts reducing the tax burden and boosting home ownership at the heart of the Conservative general election manifesto. The Telegraph can reveal that the Prime Minister will promise to scrap capital gains tax for landlords who sell their property to tenants. The scheme would last two years.

    The return of the Help to Buy scheme and a vow to abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers on properties worth less than £425,000 will also be included in the manifesto.

    Excellent. I shall be able to spend three weeks going off on one about how stupid the Help to Big schemes are as national policy, even if they might be attractive retail politics for individuals.
    This explains why it a bad idea for even people who think they are winning,

    99% Mortgages Are A Terrible Idea.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGgA_C7znwY
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Test

    Somewhere safe in the South Pacific I trust?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    Caroline Lucas has just said on Newsnight that her ideal election result is a hung Parliament with the LibDems holding the balance of power… because then they’d get PR introduced.

    Didn’t work last time.*


    *I know, I know, it wasn’t proper PR.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 794
    biggles said:

    Caroline Lucas has just said on Newsnight that her ideal election result is a hung Parliament with the LibDems holding the balance of power… because then they’d get PR introduced.

    So, logically, she wants more people to vote Tory…?

    Huge story. Greens back Tories!
    Or a *lot* of people to vote Green + Reform!
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,408

    Telegraph reporting that Sunak will offer landlords no CGT if they sell to the tenants.

    Special cases in taxation like that will be an extra headache to deal with. More expense for the taxpayer but, hey, more work for administrators, lawyers and software developers.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    It is ridiculous that we are not even halfway through the general election campaign. Six weeks is far too long.

    Are you not entertained....

    On one level absolutely. On another level I am beyond bored. We have another 23 days of this and it's like watching paint dry. And I am actually interested in all this. What must normal people think about it all?

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    Caroline Lucas has just said on Newsnight that her ideal election result is a hung Parliament with the LibDems holding the balance of power… because then they’d get PR introduced.

    And cut their number of seats in half!
    The LibDems are currently polling at about 10%. There are 632 GB seats. 10% of that would be 63 seats. That’s slightly more than current predictions give them.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,242

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    What fantastic news - and yet oddly for the level of interest turnout could be well down.

    A record number of candidates are standing in this year's general election.

    More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggeng6kqxo

    Excellent news for the public finances. That’s £500 per deposit from a good chunk of them.
    I wonder if £500 actually covers the associated admin costs? I rather doubt it.
    It's £500 per candidate, not per seat.
    There are six candidates in my seat. That's a lovely fat kerching of £3,000, of which only £500 will need to be returned by Sefton council.

    Sure, you're probably right even £3k won't cover it, but the fee is simply to stop idiots and chancers running.
    It needs to be increased by a factor of 100 to deter idiots and chancers and even that won't deter those who've wormed their way into the rotting remains of a major party. Nothing wrong with fruitcake - best enjoyed at Sunday teatime, not at 3am on a Friday morning.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,050

    biggles said:

    Rishi Sunak will unveil tax breaks for landlords on Tuesday as he puts reducing the tax burden and boosting home ownership at the heart of the Conservative general election manifesto. The Telegraph can reveal that the Prime Minister will promise to scrap capital gains tax for landlords who sell their property to tenants. The scheme would last two years.

    The return of the Help to Buy scheme and a vow to abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers on properties worth less than £425,000 will also be included in the manifesto.

    Excellent. I shall be able to spend three weeks going off on one about how stupid the Help to Big schemes are as national policy, even if they might be attractive retail politics for individuals.
    This explains why it a bad idea for even people who think they are winning,

    99% Mortgages Are A Terrible Idea.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGgA_C7znwY
    Have a look at the checks the Government imposed on customers getting a mortgage it was underwriting. It meant all of those folk were AAA+++ anyway.

    A policy written by people with no concept of how the underlying market works.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,968

    It is ridiculous that we are not even halfway through the general election campaign. Six weeks is far too long.

    Are you not entertained....

    On one level absolutely. On another level I am beyond bored. We have another 23 days of this and it's like watching paint dry. And I am actually interested in all this. What must normal people think about it all?

    I think normal people just switch off to most of it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    Caroline Lucas has just said on Newsnight that her ideal election result is a hung Parliament with the LibDems holding the balance of power… because then they’d get PR introduced.

    Didn’t work last time.*


    *I know, I know, it wasn’t proper PR.
    I know, I know. I think her presumption is that a Lab/LD arrangement would be different.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 794

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    What fantastic news - and yet oddly for the level of interest turnout could be well down.

    A record number of candidates are standing in this year's general election.

    More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggeng6kqxo

    Excellent news for the public finances. That’s £500 per deposit from a good chunk of them.
    I wonder if £500 actually covers the associated admin costs? I rather doubt it.
    It's £500 per candidate, not per seat.
    There are six candidates in my seat. That's a lovely fat kerching of £3,000, of which only £500 will need to be returned by Sefton council.

    Sure, you're probably right even £3k won't cover it, but the fee is simply to stop idiots and chancers running.
    It needs to be increased by a factor of 100 to deter idiots and chancers and even that won't deter those who've wormed their way into the rotting remains of a major party. Nothing wrong with fruitcake - best enjoyed at Sunday teatime, not at 3am on a Friday morning.
    £50k to stand as a candidate? feck that. I think £500 is about right.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    What fantastic news - and yet oddly for the level of interest turnout could be well down.

    A record number of candidates are standing in this year's general election.

    More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggeng6kqxo

    Excellent news for the public finances. That’s £500 per deposit from a good chunk of them.
    I wonder if £500 actually covers the associated admin costs? I rather doubt it.
    It's £500 per candidate, not per seat.
    There are six candidates in my seat. That's a lovely fat kerching of £3,000, of which only £500 will need to be returned by Sefton council.

    Sure, you're probably right even £3k won't cover it, but the fee is simply to stop idiots and chancers running.
    I can't remember an election in a constituency where only one candidate saved their deposit.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Seats betting post

    Backed Conservatives down to 1.4 in Richmond and Northallerton. It remains backable there, £50 keeps appearing.

    My general betting - and masturbatory - position is "Tory wipeout" so this is in some ways a hedge, but I think it's value by itself as well. Equates to 53 Tory Seats on Electoral Calculus for the PM to lose. Plenty of independents and binface etc to split the anti-Sunak vote. And if he loses I'll be overjoyed and not care about the £100 lost anyway which would be overtaken by other gains.

    Of course the risk here is Sunak pulls out but that would be megalolz.

    I am also continuing to lay Corbyn and of the opinion he's a great lay down at below 1.5 area as he is - indeed I still think he should be trading above evens. But I'm not in Islington. I base this solely on intuition and welcome input, especially from the guy whose screename I've forgotten beginning with A who responded previously.

    Corbyn is a fantastic lay.

    (stop sniggering at the back)
    I was going to have a look, but can’t find the constituency markets on BX anymore. Don’t suppose you have a link by any chance?
    Corbyn: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.229310774

    Rishi: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.229683396

    Both markets thin but I have been able to put three figure sums on easily enough without distorting them.
    Cheers
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited June 10

    It is ridiculous that we are not even halfway through the general election campaign. Six weeks is far too long.

    Are you not entertained....

    On one level absolutely. On another level I am beyond bored. We have another 23 days of this and it's like watching paint dry. And I am actually interested in all this. What must normal people think about it all?

    I’m entertained by the wheels falling off the Tory wagon (it’s been a long time coming and, a few notable exceptions aside, it couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch). But the coverage is woeful, and the debates have been absolute bilge. 3 weeks of campaigning before manifestos drop is also far too long.

    Should be 4 week long campaigns, tops.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    edited June 10

    Rishi Sunak will unveil tax breaks for landlords on Tuesday as he puts reducing the tax burden and boosting home ownership at the heart of the Conservative general election manifesto. The Telegraph can reveal that the Prime Minister will promise to scrap capital gains tax for landlords who sell their property to tenants. The scheme would last two years.

    The return of the Help to Buy scheme and a vow to abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers on properties worth less than £425,000 will also be included in the manifesto.

    Dear god.....

    At least we can be confident that they will lose.

    We need good quality housing that is more affordable. Everything else is piss and wind.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,113

    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1800265431078551973

    If Apple integrates OpenAI at the OS level, then Apple devices will be banned at my companies. That is an unacceptable security violation.

    Wait until Elon hears about Google.
    Google search doesn’t regurgitate what you feed it to others.

    So a Google search in a company won’t result in the data you search on ending up in results outside the company (yes, there are issues there, but it’s fairly true)
    Ummm.

    Google also owns the browser used by 90+% of people, and if you think it's just your search history heading to Google and its machine learning algorithms, then I have a bridge to week you.

    And the there the billions of Android devices.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,044
    .
    DM_Andy said:

    Test

    Maybe we're closer to WWIII than I thought.
    No - if he's posting about a test, it means he's failed to blow himself up again.

    It would be unfair, though, to suggest our deterrent is useless.
    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/02/second-failed-trident-test-time-expand-and-invest-britains-conventional-capabilities
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    Caroline Lucas has just said on Newsnight that her ideal election result is a hung Parliament with the LibDems holding the balance of power… because then they’d get PR introduced.

    Didn’t work last time.*


    *I know, I know, it wasn’t proper PR.
    I know, I know. I think her presumption is that a Lab/LD arrangement would be different.
    Still not convinced. Would presume a referendum? The public used to like FPTP ( and the major two parties still do, although the Tories might be about to change their minds).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Caroline Lucas has just said on Newsnight that her ideal election result is a hung Parliament with the LibDems holding the balance of power… because then they’d get PR introduced.

    And cut their number of seats in half!
    The LibDems are currently polling at about 10%. There are 632 GB seats. 10% of that would be 63 seats. That’s slightly more than current predictions give them.
    True, apologies - for some reason I was working on 326 (to win). Actually their projected share is pretty proportional under FPP though.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,513
    edited June 10

    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    What fantastic news - and yet oddly for the level of interest turnout could be well down.

    A record number of candidates are standing in this year's general election.

    More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggeng6kqxo

    Excellent news for the public finances. That’s £500 per deposit from a good chunk of them.
    I wonder if £500 actually covers the associated admin costs? I rather doubt it.
    It's £500 per candidate, not per seat.
    There are six candidates in my seat. That's a lovely fat kerching of £3,000, of which only £500 will need to be returned by Sefton council.

    Sure, you're probably right even £3k won't cover it, but the fee is simply to stop idiots and chancers running.
    You don't know how much of it will be returned. Candidates only lose their deposit if they get less than 5% of the vote. If you have Labour, Tory and Lib Dem standing I would expect it to be likely they would all get more than 5%. Maybe even Greens and Reform depending on the seat. So it could in theory be only one deposit lost.
This discussion has been closed.