This is my patch - Think Ashfield will go to Reform - The seat makes neighbouring Mansfield look like Chelsea. Anything odds against on Ashfield is good value . Some find the indie controversial as well.
I disagree in some respects (depends how far back you go - I was at Primary School in Ashfield and moved just into Derbyshire with family in the mid-1970s when I was 8). We certainly have our millionaires' rows and high end golf courses . I am sitting about 10 minutes walk from my first primary school, and I reckon that if I go back to that time there were 15 pits, each employing 500-1000+ people, within 5 miles of my table. That has now turned into a near circle of country parks right round the town.
I think I'd make a comparison with North West Leicestershire (where I worked for the Council for some time), in Ashfield not being a particular place that one goes TO as a destination. And other people own bits of to extract the revenue to take elsewhere; Macarthur Glen as mentioned in my other post is a decent example - it is just on the Derbyshire side, but the main town centre affected is here. Plenty of service/support industry, and a decent amount of disposable income, but I don't think the work has been done well enough to create links. That, I think, is a familiar story for many places.
An example of that from my area of activism is that the rail trails of which we have scores of miles often suddenly have better surfaces close to the county border, better on the Derbyshire side. Derbyshire is aware of itself as a tourist destination.
Mansfield has suffered imo from being run by Mansfield Independents for about 20 years; they have not achieved much that I can see and seem to me to be Dad's Army. Politically, Zadrozny in Ashfield has been far more effective - notwithstanding his personal legal problems. On some things he has even worked with Lee Anderson eg levelling up, such as it has been; time will tell how well that has done. Their definition of their politics in opposition to County is a big negative; they sacrificed active travel on that one.
If there is one big thing that I think causes long-term problems it is that we are missing major - even local - institutions based here. My 10 mile swathe of towns from Alfreton across to Mansfield has more than 250k people, yet no University, for example. Or historic large institutions.
All interesting stuff.
I agree about councils being run by independents! Where we are in Pembrokeshire the council is run by an Independent Group! (I suppose they could be closet tories) The council is moribund and nothing is achieved, apart from closing down everything non compulsary like care homes and day centres. All to keep the council tax as low as possible.
Eh? Your Council Tax has just gone up by 12.5%, following on from increases of 12.5%, 9.92%, 5%, 3.75%, 5% and 7.5% in previous years. Those are way more than any English Council Tax payer has had to pay.
Seems like there is nothing in the Tory manifesto to move votes.
Do they simply have a death wish? They want to put the party out of its misery?
That will happen in 3 weeks and 2 days.
But here's a thing. For my entire adult lifetime, the promise of tax cuts was considered the magic feather that allowed parties to fly to victory.
Until very very recently, dangling them in a manifesto would have left Conservative supporters chortling about having put Labour on the spot. There's no sign (so far) of that happening this time.
It might just be that the blue team have reached the point where nobody trusts them. See the way that the Tax Bombshell has blown up in their face this time. Or that nobody expects them to win, so who cares what they say?
Not quite the headline Rishi wanted on the morning of the Conservative manifesto launch.
So when Labour take over unemployment will be at 4.4%, inflation will around 2% and wage growth will be 6%, what will be the rates be when they lose power?
More significant than the unemployment rate is the millions of working age people out of the labour market altogether, who have either just stopped working early or very early, or have medical/mental health issues.
The unemployment rate is 4.4%. The 'inactivity' rate is 22.3%. Much of this will be child carers, students (??), and those close to the official 'retirement age' but it still leaves millions off the books.
Just heard Streeting being interviewed and he said that if the economy had grown under the Tories as much as under Labour when they were in then we would have x billion extra etc etc. I was waiting to hear at which point Mishal would jump in and say, “hang on Wes, you do remember we had Brexit destabilise the economy, Covid absolutely eviscerate the economy followed by Ukraine smashing the cost of living and the general economy”. But she didn’t.
It makes me wonder why the Tories aren’t screaming about Covid and Ukraine from the rooftops. Every time someone says “but you’ve had 14 years” they should be saying “yes, we had to spend the first few trying to fix the GFC mess, then Brexit it came along, voted for by supporters of all parties not just Tories, then we had Covid which destroyed the economy and then Ukraine which made things ten times worse.
When you are trying to stop a house from burning you can’t spend time retiling the roof and putting new windows in. We’ve put the fire out as you can see with inflation and cost of living falling and if we are re-elected we will continue to rebuild the country.”
Covid and Ukraine weren’t the fault of the Tories yet alone this iteration. Brexit was delivered by Cameron but it was a boil that would need to be lanced at some point. If Labour want to be let off the hook for the UKs involvement in the GFC then they need to acknowledge Covid and Ukraine, no?
1. Politics isn't fair. 2. Labour have paid a big electoral price for the GFC, at least as big as their share of the responsibility for it. These things don't last in perpetuity. 3. Politicians have to deliver answers that resonate in twenty to thirty seconds, there isn't time to go in that level of detail. Again not fair, but applies to everyone. 4. The Conservatives are confused, directionless, lacking in talent and discipline, that is why they are not being listened to.
My first post since the 2005 GE, (when you could post without signing in). Not sure why anyone is describing this election as boring. While some or all of these probably will not happen, there are lots of possible outcomes that could have a huge impact on politics over the coming years - ELE for the Tories, Farage (finally) winning a seat in the Commons. Recovery of the Lib Dems after many years of pain. Huge Labour majority. The Greens winning a seat outside of Brighton. Big defeat for the SNP. None of these are inevitable, and some are far more likely than others. But all could shape British politics for the next decade.
Certainly the most exciting election I can remember, although for all the wrong reasons if you’re a Conservative supporter.
You saddos seriously need to get a life
No saddo-shaming, please ! We are psephological geeks here.
Malc is the tired old pot trying to shame some excellent kettles.
This is the moment Tory Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride is put on the spot by an LBC listener with a barrage of complaints, with help from @NickFerrariLBC
Always one for obscure political trivia, when Rishi ceases to be PM he will be the third youngest ex-Prime Minister in history and the youngest non-aristocratic ex-PM.
This is my patch - Think Ashfield will go to Reform - The seat makes neighbouring Mansfield look like Chelsea. Anything odds against on Ashfield is good value . Some find the indie controversial as well.
I disagree in some respects (depends how far back you go - I was at Primary School in Ashfield and moved just into Derbyshire with family in the mid-1970s when I was 8). We certainly have our millionaires' rows and high end golf courses . I am sitting about 10 minutes walk from my first primary school, and I reckon that if I go back to that time there were 15 pits, each employing 500-1000+ people, within 5 miles of my table. That has now turned into a near circle of country parks right round the town.
I think I'd make a comparison with North West Leicestershire (where I worked for the Council for some time), in Ashfield not being a particular place that one goes TO as a destination. And other people own bits of to extract the revenue to take elsewhere; Macarthur Glen as mentioned in my other post is a decent example - it is just on the Derbyshire side, but the main town centre affected is here. Plenty of service/support industry, and a decent amount of disposable income, but I don't think the work has been done well enough to create links. That, I think, is a familiar story for many places.
An example of that from my area of activism is that the rail trails of which we have scores of miles often suddenly have better surfaces close to the county border, better on the Derbyshire side. Derbyshire is aware of itself as a tourist destination.
Mansfield has suffered imo from being run by Mansfield Independents for about 20 years; they have not achieved much that I can see and seem to me to be Dad's Army. Politically, Zadrozny in Ashfield has been far more effective - notwithstanding his personal legal problems. On some things he has even worked with Lee Anderson eg levelling up, such as it has been; time will tell how well that has done. Their definition of their politics in opposition to County is a big negative; they sacrificed active travel on that one.
If there is one big thing that I think causes long-term problems it is that we are missing major - even local - institutions based here. My 10 mile swathe of towns from Alfreton across to Mansfield has more than 250k people, yet no University, for example. Or historic large institutions.
All interesting stuff.
I agree about councils being run by independents! Where we are in Pembrokeshire the council is run by an Independent Group! (I suppose they could be closet tories) The council is moribund and nothing is achieved, apart from closing down everything non compulsary like care homes and day centres. All to keep the council tax as low as possible.
Closing down care homes so the work is outsourced to private firms. That's penny foolish unless the care home has a multiple million pound refurbishment due (I mention that because that's often the reason why councils have closed them down).
Not quite the headline Rishi wanted on the morning of the Conservative manifesto launch.
So when Labour take over unemployment will be at 4.4%, inflation will around 2% and wage growth will be 6%, what will be the rates be when they lose power?
Back in May 2010:
Unemployment 7.9% Inflation 3.4% Wage growth 1.2%
It was a pretty horrible time for much of the country.
This is the moment Tory Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride is put on the spot by an LBC listener with a barrage of complaints, with help from @NickFerrariLBC
Seems like there is nothing in the Tory manifesto to move votes.
Do they simply have a death wish? They want to put the party out of its misery?
That will happen in 3 weeks and 2 days.
But here's a thing. For my entire adult lifetime, the promise of tax cuts was considered the magic feather that allowed parties to fly to victory.
Until very very recently, dangling them in a manifesto would have left Conservative supporters chortling about having put Labour on the spot. There's no sign (so far) of that happening this time.
It might just be that the blue team have reached the point where nobody trusts them. See the way that the Tax Bombshell has blown up in their face this time. Or that nobody expects them to win, so who cares what they say?
But it's striking.
They've also reached the point where public services are visibly so bad that a lot of people think things need slightly more money spent on them.
And that's before we see the impact of the last 2 NI cuts on public services...
Not quite the headline Rishi wanted on the morning of the Conservative manifesto launch.
So when Labour take over unemployment will be at 4.4%, inflation will around 2% and wage growth will be 6%, what will be the rates be when they lose power?
Back in May 2010:
Unemployment 7.9% Inflation 3.4% Wage growth 1.2%
It was a pretty horrible time for much of the country.
What were the overall growth rates for Labour's period in office compared with the Tories'? How did real wage growth compare over both periods? NHS waiting lists? Immigration?
Wage growth remained flat at 6% and with bonuses went up. So less chance of an interest rate cut before the election .
Unemployment edged up slightly to 4.4% .
Not the best news for Sunak when he publishes his fxck those on sickness and disability benefit to dish out NI cuts manifesto this morning .
There’s no reason to be less abled or suffering …
… when you have $1bn.
This is the reason why I pretty intensely dislike him. The failure to empathise or comprehend that the rest of the country doesn’t operate in his world. We see it in almost everything he says and does, from the myopic Maths focus to ruthless attitude to sickness and disability; from private helicopter travel to abandoning D-Day.
And when challenged about it all he gets hoity-toity.
Was this really the best the Conservative Party could do? Ever since David Cameron fell on his sword they’ve had 4 totally unsuitable leaders.
It’s amusing how people who never would have voted for Cameron now go all misty eyed at his name. His Lordship, together with his chum Osborne, used austerity as cover to attack welfare spending, all in the name of creating “wedge issues” to win his 2015 majority; while doing nothing to really help the economy. He led a Government far more economically right wing (well sort of - a Thatcherite, he wasn’t), and probably more socially conservative, than Boris Johnson. It astonishes me that Brexit has got some left wing types talking as if he was one of them.
Indeed.
The Cameron/Osborne record on welfare is disastrous, but other people are also to blame, like the appalling Therese Coffey. It's achieved relatively little, for huge increases in hardship.
I am fairly sure that every penny spent helping poor kids saves at least a penny of spending further down the road. We are going to pay a heavy price for the current policy of enforcing poverty on children, in terms of ill health, worse education outcomes and the like.
This is my patch - Think Ashfield will go to Reform - The seat makes neighbouring Mansfield look like Chelsea. Anything odds against on Ashfield is good value . Some find the indie controversial as well.
I disagree in some respects (depends how far back you go - I was at Primary School in Ashfield and moved just into Derbyshire with family in the mid-1970s when I was 8). We certainly have our millionaires' rows and high end golf courses . I am sitting about 10 minutes walk from my first primary school, and I reckon that if I go back to that time there were 15 pits, each employing 500-1000+ people, within 5 miles of my table. That has now turned into a near circle of country parks right round the town.
I think I'd make a comparison with North West Leicestershire (where I worked for the Council for some time), in Ashfield not being a particular place that one goes TO as a destination. And other people own bits of to extract the revenue to take elsewhere; Macarthur Glen as mentioned in my other post is a decent example - it is just on the Derbyshire side, but the main town centre affected is here. Plenty of service/support industry, and a decent amount of disposable income, but I don't think the work has been done well enough to create links. That, I think, is a familiar story for many places.
An example of that from my area of activism is that the rail trails of which we have scores of miles often suddenly have better surfaces close to the county border, better on the Derbyshire side. Derbyshire is aware of itself as a tourist destination.
Mansfield has suffered imo from being run by Mansfield Independents for about 20 years; they have not achieved much that I can see and seem to me to be Dad's Army. Politically, Zadrozny in Ashfield has been far more effective - notwithstanding his personal legal problems. On some things he has even worked with Lee Anderson eg levelling up, such as it has been; time will tell how well that has done. Their definition of their politics in opposition to County is a big negative; they sacrificed active travel on that one.
If there is one big thing that I think causes long-term problems it is that we are missing major - even local - institutions based here. My 10 mile swathe of towns from Alfreton across to Mansfield has more than 250k people, yet no University, for example. Or historic large institutions.
All interesting stuff.
I agree about councils being run by independents! Where we are in Pembrokeshire the council is run by an Independent Group! (I suppose they could be closet tories) The council is moribund and nothing is achieved, apart from closing down everything non compulsary like care homes and day centres. All to keep the council tax as low as possible.
Eh? Your Council Tax has just gone up by 12.5%, following on from increases of 12.5%, 9.92%, 5%, 3.75%, 5% and 7.5% in previous years. Those are way more than any English Council Tax payer has had to pay.
Exactly - Our Council (Conwy) has raised our council tax by 10.1% in 2023 and 9.67% in 2024 following years of 5% rises
Interesting discussion on tax between Streeting and Burley on Sky
Streeting - No increases in taxes
Burnley - Council tax
Streeting - No
Burley - Capital gains tax
Streeting - No
Burley - how do you pay for it
Streeting - vat on schools, closing non doms, recovering unpaid taxes, and growth
My photo for the day is from Lee Anderson's Facebook Group.
For some reason he has a "Featured" post from Jan 25th - before he switched horses.
Amusing. It has 2.6k members so I'm happy posting it. He obviously thinks he has a big personal vote.
Reform. I have had a few people saying they might vote Reform at the next election due to their stance on illegal migration. To be clear no other MP has been as vocal on this subject as me. I have had 20,000 surveys returned with constituents voter intentions. These are Ashfield people. They have me 1st (just) Labour 2nd, Independents 3rd and Reform 4th and losing their deposit. Watch the upcoming by elections where Reform will lose their deposits. They should be winning these elections as UKIP did 10 years ago. Voting Reform in Ashfield risks getting a Labour MP. Will a Labour MP stick up for Ashfield like I have? If I lose voters to Reform it won't be Reform that gets elected , it will be Labour or even worse the Independents. Ask yourself this - who will stand up for you and be your voice in Labour or the Independents get into power in Ashfield?
Wouldn’t worry about either England or Scotland winning it tbh.
One half of Glasgow's footballing fraternity has no doubts about Scotland.
The Gers @TheGers5 I've already placed a bet on Scotland losing every game... 7:03 am · 11 Jun 2024
To be fair...
Mebbes, though I sense 'The Gers' isn't tipping this out of cool rational analysis of the beautiful game.
I made the mistake of recently joining my neighbourhood FB page; a more wretched hive of gammonry and reaction you couldn't wish to find. Several folk posted pics of the mural below in a rare burst of hopey, clappy positivity, only to be greeted by sour moaning about the Tartan Army hating on Rangers players and raycizm against Huns.
Not quite the headline Rishi wanted on the morning of the Conservative manifesto launch.
So when Labour take over unemployment will be at 4.4%, inflation will around 2% and wage growth will be 6%, what will be the rates be when they lose power?
More significant than the unemployment rate is the millions of working age people out of the labour market altogether, who have either just stopped working early or very early, or have medical/mental health issues.
The unemployment rate is 4.4%. The 'inactivity' rate is 22.3%. Much of this will be child carers, students (??), and those close to the official 'retirement age' but it still leaves millions off the books.
People who don't want to work not working is a lot less significant than people who do want to work not working.
But the significance of only half the population working is that those that smaller the active workforce the more they have to individually increase productivity to generate growth per capita.
This becomes especially true when we're told that large sectors of the workforce are unable to increase their productivity.
Wouldn’t worry about either England or Scotland winning it tbh.
One half of Glasgow's footballing fraternity has no doubts about Scotland.
The Gers @TheGers5 I've already placed a bet on Scotland losing every game... 7:03 am · 11 Jun 2024
To be fair...
Mebbes, though I sense 'The Gers' isn't tipping this out of cool rational analysis of the beautiful game.
I made the mistake of recently joining my neighbourhood FB page; a more wretched hive of gammonry and reaction you couldn't wish to find. Several folk posted pics of the mural below in a rare burst of hopey, clappy positivity, only to be greeted by sour moaning about the Tartan Army hating on Rangers players and raycizm against Huns.
Scottish football sectarianism is everything that's bad about Scotland dialled up to 11.
If Labour want to be let off the hook for the UKs involvement in the GFC then they need to acknowledge Covid and Ukraine, no?
The way I look at it, Labour faced 9/11 and the GFC, the Tories faced Covid and Ukraine, plus Brexit which was entirely self-inflicted. Shit happens.
You think 9/11 or the GFC compares to Covid? Most of the employees of this Country were at home for months and months getting 80% pay, paid for by the Government. It was by far the biggest event any Government has had to deal with since WW2. The fact that the tories will be handing over an economy with 4.4% unemployment and 2% inflation just 3 years after Covid is something that they should get credit for, which of course they wont.
Wage growth remained flat at 6% and with bonuses went up. So less chance of an interest rate cut before the election .
Unemployment edged up slightly to 4.4% .
Not the best news for Sunak when he publishes his fxck those on sickness and disability benefit to dish out NI cuts manifesto this morning .
There’s no reason to be less abled or suffering …
… when you have $1bn.
This is the reason why I pretty intensely dislike him. The failure to empathise or comprehend that the rest of the country doesn’t operate in his world. We see it in almost everything he says and does, from the myopic Maths focus to ruthless attitude to sickness and disability; from private helicopter travel to abandoning D-Day.
And when challenged about it all he gets hoity-toity.
Was this really the best the Conservative Party could do? Ever since David Cameron fell on his sword they’ve had 4 totally unsuitable leaders.
It’s amusing how people who never would have voted for Cameron now go all misty eyed at his name.
I voted for David Cameron’s Conservatives in both 2010 and 2015, so spare (me) the snide aside, ta. He also made me money from successful bets @TSE note
Until Brexit, and later Greenshill, I had a lot of respect for him. He was at least competent which is all I mainly require from a leader.
I know austerity is criticised but we do have to balance the books, you know. Or at least we used to have to until the tories decided to break Britain.
My photo for the day is from Lee Anderson's Facebook Group.
For some reason he has a "Featured" post from Jan 25th - before he switched horses.
Amusing. It has 2.6k members so I'm happy posting it. He obviously thinks he has a big personal vote.
Reform. I have had a few people saying they might vote Reform at the next election due to their stance on illegal migration. To be clear no other MP has been as vocal on this subject as me. I have had 20,000 surveys returned with constituents voter intentions. These are Ashfield people. They have me 1st (just) Labour 2nd, Independents 3rd and Reform 4th and losing their deposit. Watch the upcoming by elections where Reform will lose their deposits. They should be winning these elections as UKIP did 10 years ago. Voting Reform in Ashfield risks getting a Labour MP. Will a Labour MP stick up for Ashfield like I have? If I lose voters to Reform it won't be Reform that gets elected , it will be Labour or even worse the Independents. Ask yourself this - who will stand up for you and be your voice in Labour or the Independents get into power in Ashfield?
Not quite the headline Rishi wanted on the morning of the Conservative manifesto launch.
So when Labour take over unemployment will be at 4.4%, inflation will around 2% and wage growth will be 6%, what will be the rates be when they lose power?
Back in May 2010:
Unemployment 7.9% Inflation 3.4% Wage growth 1.2%
It was a pretty horrible time for much of the country.
What were the overall growth rates for Labour's period in office compared with the Tories'? How did real wage growth compare over both periods? NHS waiting lists? Immigration?
Labour did not have the legacy of closing the economy down for 2 years with covid nor at the same time a war in Europe between Ukraine and Russia which has created hundreds of billions of debt
It is convenient to dismiss the 1 in a 100 year event and war and we are seeing the consequences of these events slaying most every government who has been in power in this period
Do the BMA or some medical think tank ever look at waiting lists over time in the context of new treatments available?
So for example, there must be many new operations and treatments that are available now compared to 1990, 2000, 2010. How many people are on waiting lists for treatments that previously weren’t available and so comparing the waiting lists needs to be weighted or caveated. Also weighing for population growth.
Obviously it’s all good fun to look at waiting lists compared to period x but it doesn’t really shine much light if the ops and the numbers aren’t the same. If there is a new heart op that wasn’t available in 2000 and there are currently 5000 waiting to have it then it’s not really helpful to include them in the stats for that period.
Seems like there is nothing in the Tory manifesto to move votes.
Do they simply have a death wish? They want to put the party out of its misery?
The challenge they have though is what could they promise that we’d realistically listen to?
The more I think about it the more I think they are deserving of being almost wiped. The complete lack of stable and sincere governance they have given us deserves an appropriate response from the electorate.
First that the right-wing populists there (and here) seem to have a ceiling at around 1/3rd of the electorate.
And that presumably means Macron is gambling that in the second round the anti-Right forces will coalesce as they have previously?
A lot depends on Electoral geography. It works against RN at national level, but they must have the advantage at many seats at Assembly level.
I rather like the French 2 stage system of voting. It has many of the advantages of AV, but with an additional week to think about the final choice. There is some tactical voting in the first round, but not really in the second one.
Eh? The second round is essentially enforced tactical voting for a lot of voters!!
No, you vote for the candidate you genuinely prefer out of the two available. That might involve a load of compromise, but no tactics.
Tactical voting is when you vote for someone other than your preferred candidate out of the ones available, because you think they don't have a chance anyway and that way you might at least get your second (or lower) choice elected.
Not quite the headline Rishi wanted on the morning of the Conservative manifesto launch.
So when Labour take over unemployment will be at 4.4%, inflation will around 2% and wage growth will be 6%, what will be the rates be when they lose power?
Back in May 2010:
Unemployment 7.9% Inflation 3.4% Wage growth 1.2%
It was a pretty horrible time for much of the country.
What were the overall growth rates for Labour's period in office compared with the Tories'? How did real wage growth compare over both periods? NHS waiting lists? Immigration?
You don't like being reminded about the crap state of the economy Labour left it in do you.
But millions did remember and those are the voters who kept the Conservatives in power since 2010.
There’s a theory that Macron could resign as president if he loses badly in the parliamentary elections, which would allow him to circumvent the limit on two consecutive terms and run again next time.
Not quite the headline Rishi wanted on the morning of the Conservative manifesto launch.
So when Labour take over unemployment will be at 4.4%, inflation will around 2% and wage growth will be 6%, what will be the rates be when they lose power?
Back in May 2010:
Unemployment 7.9% Inflation 3.4% Wage growth 1.2%
It was a pretty horrible time for much of the country.
What were the overall growth rates for Labour's period in office compared with the Tories'? How did real wage growth compare over both periods? NHS waiting lists? Immigration?
Labour did not have the legacy of closing the economy down for 2 years with covid nor at the same time a war in Europe between Ukraine and Russia which has created hundreds of billions of debt
It is convenient to dismiss the 1 in a 100 year event and war and we are seeing the consequences of these events slaying most every government who has been in power in this period
Counter factual history is pretty pointless - my Dad always says that there is no if in history, but its pretty clear that whoever is in power for Covid and the after effects and now the Ukraine war induced economic shocks is going to have a pretty tough time. Its been lovely for all those bitter remainers* out there who can point to the terrible economic situation and say "look, Brexit did this, I told you so". There is little doubt that Brexit has made things a bit tougher, but the biggest factors are covid and the response to it, and the economic shock from the war. Add into the mix the Tories being part of a government or single party in power for 14 years and frankly its amazing they are still in the teen.
Turnout was highish at 65% (last national federal election was 76%).
Compared to the last euro elections the big losers are the Greens (-8.6%), and the winners are the new left-populist party BSW (+6.3%) and the AfD (+4.9%). On the other hand if you compare to the 2021 national election, the big losers are the FDP and SPD, with the Green vote holding up better than their coalition partners.
As usual for Germany the polling was fairly accurate, with no big surprises. Small parties tend to do a bit better than in national elections (no 5% threshold for euros).
The result is of course terrible for the SPD, and will increase pressure to get rid of Scholz before the next election due in 2025. There is polling showing the SPD doing better with defence minister Pistorius as Chancellor-candidate. I'm always a bit suspicious of this kind of polling, especially in Germany where traditionally voters value reliability more than individual flair or charisma. But there's no doubt that Scholz is seen as a dud, and Pistorius has the best favourability ratings of any German politician.
If you could evade CGT by selling to tenants, surely the estate agents and lawyers will quickly introduce a scheme where you rent for a few months before purchase?
On London properties CGT bills of £100k+ won't be that uncommon, so you could even let it out for six months for free and be a winner.
Wouldn’t worry about either England or Scotland winning it tbh.
One half of Glasgow's footballing fraternity has no doubts about Scotland.
The Gers @TheGers5 I've already placed a bet on Scotland losing every game... 7:03 am · 11 Jun 2024
To be fair...
Mebbes, though I sense 'The Gers' isn't tipping this out of cool rational analysis of the beautiful game.
I made the mistake of recently joining my neighbourhood FB page; a more wretched hive of gammonry and reaction you couldn't wish to find. Several folk posted pics of the mural below in a rare burst of hopey, clappy positivity, only to be greeted by sour moaning about the Tartan Army hating on Rangers players and raycizm against Huns.
Speaking as a noted Scotch Expert, the word 'Hun' has adopted sectarian connotations and is now no longer appropriate. Funnily enough it's use on here is mostly by low key bigots who use it with a snide smirk knowing they're getting away with it.
Not quite the headline Rishi wanted on the morning of the Conservative manifesto launch.
So when Labour take over unemployment will be at 4.4%, inflation will around 2% and wage growth will be 6%, what will be the rates be when they lose power?
Back in May 2010:
Unemployment 7.9% Inflation 3.4% Wage growth 1.2%
It was a pretty horrible time for much of the country.
What were the overall growth rates for Labour's period in office compared with the Tories'? How did real wage growth compare over both periods? NHS waiting lists? Immigration?
Labour did not have the legacy of closing the economy down for 2 years with covid nor at the same time a war in Europe between Ukraine and Russia which has created hundreds of billions of debt
It is convenient to dismiss the 1 in a 100 year event and war and we are seeing the consequences of these events slaying most every government who has been in power in this period
Nobody else except the Conservatives offered the Truss budget. That was as seismic as COVID. COVID management was a net plus for Johnson until we found out he had soiled himself.
My wife told me a joke yesterday. Replacing Sunak with Starmer is like soiling oneself and changing one's tie.
I do not think the odds given in the article for Newark are correct. If Conservatives are indeed available at 5/1 please advise which bookmaker has this priced up like that. I think the odds are more like 4/7 and 5/4.
First that the right-wing populists there (and here) seem to have a ceiling at around 1/3rd of the electorate.
And that presumably means Macron is gambling that in the second round the anti-Right forces will coalesce as they have previously?
A lot depends on Electoral geography. It works against RN at national level, but they must have the advantage at many seats at Assembly level.
I rather like the French 2 stage system of voting. It has many of the advantages of AV, but with an additional week to think about the final choice. There is some tactical voting in the first round, but not really in the second one.
Eh? The second round is essentially enforced tactical voting for a lot of voters!!
No, you vote for the candidate you genuinely prefer out of the two available. That might involve a load of compromise, but no tactics.
Tactical voting is when you vote for someone other than your preferred candidate out of the ones available, because you think they don't have a chance anyway and that way you might at least get your second (or lower) choice elected.
Having your preferred candidate excluded from an election is a very good way of ensuring that they don't have a chance of being elected....I take the point about their being no 'tactics' involved, but for the third party supporter it's the same invidious two-party choice, with the consolation that at least, first time around, you could vote positively. That's a hugely better system than ours.
My first post since the 2005 GE, (when you could post without signing in). Not sure why anyone is describing this election as boring. While some or all of these probably will not happen, there are lots of possible outcomes that could have a huge impact on politics over the coming years - ELE for the Tories, Farage (finally) winning a seat in the Commons. Recovery of the Lib Dems after many years of pain. Huge Labour majority. The Greens winning a seat outside of Brighton. Big defeat for the SNP. None of these are inevitable, and some are far more likely than others. But all could shape British politics for the next decade.
Certainly the most exciting election I can remember, although for all the wrong reasons if you’re a Conservative supporter.
You saddos seriously need to get a life
No saddo-shaming, please ! We are psephological geeks here.
Malc is the tired old pot trying to shame some excellent kettles.
Finest Le Crueset I will have you know, with a lifetime warranty and pretty colours to boot, unlike you poxy brevil kettles.
Wouldn’t worry about either England or Scotland winning it tbh.
One half of Glasgow's footballing fraternity has no doubts about Scotland.
The Gers @TheGers5 I've already placed a bet on Scotland losing every game... 7:03 am · 11 Jun 2024
To be fair...
Mebbes, though I sense 'The Gers' isn't tipping this out of cool rational analysis of the beautiful game.
I made the mistake of recently joining my neighbourhood FB page; a more wretched hive of gammonry and reaction you couldn't wish to find. Several folk posted pics of the mural below in a rare burst of hopey, clappy positivity, only to be greeted by sour moaning about the Tartan Army hating on Rangers players and raycizm against Huns.
Speaking as a noted Scotch Expert, the word 'Hun' has adopted sectarian connotations and is now no longer appropriate. Funnily enough it's use on here is mostly by low key bigots who use it with a snide smirk knowing they're getting away with it.
It is an everyday word along with it's opposite equivalent, on west coast at least.
I do not think the odds given in the article for Newark are correct. If Conservatives are indeed available at 5/1 please advise which bookmaker has this priced up like that. I think the odds are more like 4/7 and 5/4.
That was at the time of writing, which perhaps I should have been more explicit about. That was last Thursday / Friday.
It was from looking at Oddschecker, who then rated-limited me because I looked up various constituencies.
Comments
We've now passed "crossover" point with 1997 - the polls have a bigger Labour lead now than at this point in that campaign.
https://x.com/Samfr/status/1800274829658214608
But here's a thing. For my entire adult lifetime, the promise of tax cuts was considered the magic feather that allowed parties to fly to victory.
Until very very recently, dangling them in a manifesto would have left Conservative supporters chortling about having put Labour on the spot. There's no sign (so far) of that happening this time.
It might just be that the blue team have reached the point where nobody trusts them. See the way that the Tax Bombshell has blown up in their face this time. Or that nobody expects them to win, so who cares what they say?
But it's striking.
The unemployment rate is 4.4%. The 'inactivity' rate is 22.3%. Much of this will be child carers, students (??), and those close to the official 'retirement age' but it still leaves millions off the books.
2. Labour have paid a big electoral price for the GFC, at least as big as their share of the responsibility for it. These things don't last in perpetuity.
3. Politicians have to deliver answers that resonate in twenty to thirty seconds, there isn't time to go in that level of detail. Again not fair, but applies to everyone.
4. The Conservatives are confused, directionless, lacking in talent and discipline, that is why they are not being listened to.
https://x.com/TorinPhable/status/1800226199047901292
This is the moment Tory Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride is put on the spot by an LBC listener with a barrage of complaints, with help from
@NickFerrariLBC
'Why would anyone sane vote Conservative?!'
https://x.com/LBC/status/1800432758273241156
Worth noting also that Mel Stride is the only minister still willing to face the press
@KevinASchofield
Kay Burley tells him: "You're on more often than I am."
Unemployment 7.9%
Inflation 3.4%
Wage growth 1.2%
It was a pretty horrible time for much of the country.
And that's before we see the impact of the last 2 NI cuts on public services...
How did real wage growth compare over both periods?
NHS waiting lists?
Immigration?
Interesting discussion on tax between Streeting and Burley on Sky
Streeting - No increases in taxes
Burnley - Council tax
Streeting - No
Burley - Capital gains tax
Streeting - No
Burley - how do you pay for it
Streeting - vat on schools, closing non doms, recovering unpaid taxes, and growth
Burley - and it is fully costed
Streeting - Yes
Burley - Bingo
For some reason he has a "Featured" post from Jan 25th - before he switched horses.
Amusing. It has 2.6k members so I'm happy posting it. He obviously thinks he has a big personal vote.
Reform.
I have had a few people saying they might vote Reform at the next election due to their stance on illegal migration.
To be clear no other MP has been as vocal on this subject as me.
I have had 20,000 surveys returned with constituents voter intentions. These are Ashfield people.
They have me 1st (just) Labour 2nd, Independents 3rd and Reform 4th and losing their deposit.
Watch the upcoming by elections where Reform will lose their deposits. They should be winning these elections as UKIP did 10 years ago. Voting Reform in Ashfield risks getting a Labour MP. Will a Labour MP stick up for Ashfield like I have?
If I lose voters to Reform it won't be Reform that gets elected , it will be Labour or even worse the Independents.
Ask yourself this - who will stand up for you and be your voice in Labour or the Independents get into power in Ashfield?
https://www.facebook.com/groups/287739099365530/
The attached graph shows where we ramped up the national debt.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt
Most of it came from the GFC with Covid ramping up later.
Brexit did nothing.
But the significance of only half the population working is that those that smaller the active workforce the more they have to individually increase productivity to generate growth per capita.
This becomes especially true when we're told that large sectors of the workforce are unable to increase their productivity.
Most of the employees of this Country were at home for months and months getting 80% pay, paid for by the Government. It was by far the biggest event any Government has had to deal with since WW2. The fact that the tories will be handing over an economy with 4.4% unemployment and 2% inflation just 3 years after Covid is something that they should get credit for, which of course they wont.
Until Brexit, and later Greenshill, I had a lot of respect for him. He was at least competent which is all I mainly require from a leader.
I know austerity is criticised but we do have to balance the books, you know. Or at least we used to have to until the tories decided to break Britain.
NEW THREAD
This, I think, is the Tory administrated group from before he defected.
It is convenient to dismiss the 1 in a 100 year event and war and we are seeing the consequences of these events slaying most every government who has been in power in this period
So for example, there must be many new operations and treatments that are available now compared to 1990, 2000, 2010. How many people are on waiting lists for treatments that previously weren’t available and so comparing the waiting lists needs to be weighted or caveated. Also weighing for population growth.
Obviously it’s all good fun to look at waiting lists compared to period x but it doesn’t really shine much light if the ops and the numbers aren’t the same. If there is a new heart op that wasn’t available in 2000 and there are currently 5000 waiting to have it then it’s not really helpful to include them in the stats for that period.
The more I think about it the more I think they are deserving of being almost wiped. The complete lack of stable and sincere governance they have given us deserves an appropriate response from the electorate.
Tactical voting is when you vote for someone other than your preferred candidate out of the ones available, because you think they don't have a chance anyway and that way you might at least get your second (or lower) choice elected.
But millions did remember and those are the voters who kept the Conservatives in power since 2010.
*I voted Remain.
Turnout was highish at 65% (last national federal election was 76%).
Compared to the last euro elections the big losers are the Greens (-8.6%), and the winners are the new left-populist party BSW (+6.3%) and the AfD (+4.9%). On the other hand if you compare to the 2021 national election, the big losers are the FDP and SPD, with the Green vote holding up better than their coalition partners.
As usual for Germany the polling was fairly accurate, with no big surprises. Small parties tend to do a bit better than in national elections (no 5% threshold for euros).
The result is of course terrible for the SPD, and will increase pressure to get rid of Scholz before the next election due in 2025. There is polling showing the SPD doing better with defence minister Pistorius as Chancellor-candidate. I'm always a bit suspicious of this kind of polling, especially in Germany where traditionally voters value reliability more than individual flair or charisma. But there's no doubt that Scholz is seen as a dud, and Pistorius has the best favourability ratings of any German politician.
On London properties CGT bills of £100k+ won't be that uncommon, so you could even let it out for six months for free and be a winner.
My wife told me a joke yesterday. Replacing Sunak with Starmer is like soiling oneself and changing one's tie.
It was from looking at Oddschecker, who then rated-limited me because I looked up various constituencies.