The Lib Dem manifesto summaries were great, thank you! Reassures me that despite my lack of enthusiasm, my vote for the Conservatives versus the Lib Dem challenger in my seat is right. The Lib Dem policies on the EU, a written constitution etc just do not speak to me. I am a self declared moderate conservative, but the second part of that label is as important. The Lib Dems don't offer me much, despite periodic good policies.
I guess this isn’t meant to be taking a personal pop, although it may come across as acerbic, but in your 5 short sentence summary of your decision to vote Conservative. You use ‘me’, ‘I’, and ‘my’ x 7 times.
Absolutely nothing about others.
Not sure that has anything to do with the kind of Cameron Big Society Conservatism or One Nation Toryism. Just sounds like ‘me, me, me.'
What a mean spirited post. Completely unnecessary
No the whole point was about the lack of society, or social conscience, or thinking about others in determining voting choice. The opposite therefore of mean spirited. If we are going to lift ourselves up as a country, and world, we have to start thinking about other people.
No man is an island,
Former New Zealand international cricketer Jeremy Coney may disagree.
Sunak extraordinarily rubbish on housing, runs out the classic NIMBY lines - and he's wrong about the deposit being the issue... it's the income multiples often these days.
Did he say he supports housing but in the right place, and we need to focus on Brownfield?
"The sad thing is that I actually liked him. But a lack of thought about something so big makes you question everything else about him.” The quote sums up our focus group from Chichester this evening, where D-Day was the first topic everyone wanted to discuss.
It hasn't been an inordinately interesting day for news or surprising policy announcements. The LD manifesto is long ; Refuk have apologised for the Hitler deal incident and the Tories don't seem to be pursuing it hard ; and Charlie Mullins of Pimlico Plumbers is asking Boris Johnson to join Farage in Reform. "That way they'll get to Number 10".
Any more polls, waiter ? I'm getting hungry again.
Did you do this one?
@YouGov Regardless of who you support, who do you think is running the worst general election campaign so far?
Conservative Party: 45% (+11 from 4 June) Labour Party: 9% (-1) Lib Dems: 3% (-2) Reform UK: 4% (=) SNP: 2% (-1) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Green Party: 2% (=) None of them: 9% (+1) Don’t know: 25% (-7)
I don't know if anyone's watching Rishi but he's not looking like a Prime Minister.
I am watching. Its pretty unpleasant, sunak pleading it will be different next time for policy failure after policy failure.
Bake off here.
Sunak has lost. He has nothing of any interest to say now. The more people see him the less they seem to like him.
He looked totally defeated with 3 weeks to go.
It's hard to keep up spirits and boost morale when everything seems to be going wrong. How do they stop a spiral at this point?
No good news is going to be cropping up, unless Starmer decides to do an interview where he says he hates old people, Britain, and has decided to join Hamas.
Labour has dropped a plan to reintroduce a cap on how much people are allowed to save into their pensions before paying tax.
Under the pensions lifetime allowance, pension pots over £1.07m faced an annual tax of £40,000 on average.
The cap was scrapped in April but Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves had vowed to bring it back, saying it could raise £800m a year.
However, her party has now reversed the decision ahead of the release of its manifesto on Thursday, reportedly because the cap would add uncertainty for savers and be complex to reintroduce.
Do Starmer and Reeves have the courage to do anything ?
That really is pathetic. ISAs have ended up becoming a massive benefit for the rich and only ho hum for middle earners. Of course there should be a cap.
Which is all hunky-dory until you find that the surgeon who could save your life has taken early retirement.
This isn’t ISAs, it’s the pension lifetime cap which means you actually start paying a very high marginal rate of tax if your pension rises above the ceiling.
There’s an argument for reducing the ISA allowance, though not much fiscal payoff because government only benefits many years hence when people cash in their non-ISA gains. Whereas pensions tax changes have a fiscal effect straightaway
So with the lifetime cap, presumably this mostly causes problems for people like doctors whose pension scheme is fixed and defined-benefit? In a defined-contribution scheme you could just stop contributing.
Off topic, but I thought some of you might be interested in this example of home building: "ORONO, Maine - The world's largest 3D printer has created a house that can cut construction time and labor. An even larger printer unveiled on Tuesday may one day create entire neighborhoods.
The machine revealed Tuesday at the University of Maine is four times larger than the first one — commissioned less than five years ago — and capable of printing ever mightier objects. That includes scaling up its 3D-printed home technology using bio-based materials to eventually demonstrate how printed neighborhoods can offer an avenue to affordable housing to address homelessness in the region." source: https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/worlds-largest-3d-printer-maine-housing/
Sunak extraordinarily rubbish on housing, runs out the classic NIMBY lines - and he's wrong about the deposit being the issue... it's the income multiples often these days.
Did he say he supports housing but in the right place, and we need to focus on Brownfield?
Of course, also chucked in a consulting with local communities line and unless they've had an outbreak of common sense I don't think he was referring to street votes, but the usual vetocracy of the undertaker-adjacent.
Labour has dropped a plan to reintroduce a cap on how much people are allowed to save into their pensions before paying tax.
Under the pensions lifetime allowance, pension pots over £1.07m faced an annual tax of £40,000 on average.
The cap was scrapped in April but Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves had vowed to bring it back, saying it could raise £800m a year.
However, her party has now reversed the decision ahead of the release of its manifesto on Thursday, reportedly because the cap would add uncertainty for savers and be complex to reintroduce.
Do Starmer and Reeves have the courage to do anything ?
Implement it and their plans for keeping NHS doctors continuing to work would have been destroyed.
Its still pandering to the rich.
And anyone whose taxes are increased will know that they're having to pay more so that those will million quid pension pots don't have to.
Funnily enough I'd be surprised if it did - people just retire/cut hours when they hit the cap - so there's a decent chance that Labour generously agreeing to not seize all of other peoples' money may result in higher tax take. We need to restore the incentive to work, not erode it further.
But that's not how it will look to those who do end up being hit by some tax increase.
Any change to salary sacrifice pension contributions will look very bad after this.
So why did your government abolish the Lifetime Allowance while putting other people's tax up?
As I said its not something I supported - I wasn't especially bothered as I expected Labour to reverse it.
Million quid plus pension pots may be common among PBers but out in the real world people do well to get to a hundred thousand:
This is my patch - Think Ashfield will go to Reform - The seat makes neighbouring Mansfield look like Chelsea. Anything odds against on Ashfield is good value . Some find the indie controversial as well. I used to live in Rushcliffe and it is full of yummy mummies and daddies with kids - It will go Labour I think as Ken Clarke had a big personal vote and that takes two elections to totally unwind , also the tories have lost young well to do families in their quest to keep pensioners on board. If Reform take off further they could take Mansfield. PS I now live in the Castle Ward of the City which is now under Nottingham East (despite being if anything west ). I will be voting Reform especially as the Tory candidate picture has him wearing a hoodie and looking about 20 (show some respect to the electorate young man!)
The Park plus a few bits and mainly modern pieces !
I spent 6 months living at pretty much the closest house to the castle on Lenton Road when I was at University.
yes I live in the Park in a flat - I love the seasons there . I take it you used the "Narnia" entrance a lot
By the Narnia entrance, do you mean the City Centre tunnel from .. Tunnel Road?
I was actually Beeston-focused for work, and it was soon after the Park Residents Association had taken over from Oxford University Chest. So it had not been turned into the definitive LTN then - that happened about 1990.
I was so close to the city that it was quicker to walk over the top past the castle when headed that way.
NEW: make or break manifesto launch for Sunak tomorrow
Under-fire Tory chief will offer tax cuts for millions and a tough clampdown on soaring immigration in a last ditch effort to breathe life into his bid to remain PM
This is my patch - Think Ashfield will go to Reform - The seat makes neighbouring Mansfield look like Chelsea. Anything odds against on Ashfield is good value . Some find the indie controversial as well. I used to live in Rushcliffe and it is full of yummy mummies and daddies with kids - It will go Labour I think as Ken Clarke had a big personal vote and that takes two elections to totally unwind , also the tories have lost young well to do families in their quest to keep pensioners on board. If Reform take off further they could take Mansfield. PS I now live in the Castle Ward of the City which is now under Nottingham East (despite being if anything west ). I will be voting Reform especially as the Tory candidate picture has him wearing a hoodie and looking about 20 (show some respect to the electorate young man!)
The Park plus a few bits and mainly modern pieces !
I spent 6 months living at pretty much the closest house to the castle on Lenton Road when I was at University.
yes I live in the Park in a flat - I love the seasons there . I take it you used the "Narnia" entrance a lot
The Lib Dem manifesto summaries were great, thank you! Reassures me that despite my lack of enthusiasm, my vote for the Conservatives versus the Lib Dem challenger in my seat is right. The Lib Dem policies on the EU, a written constitution etc just do not speak to me. I am a self declared moderate conservative, but the second part of that label is as important. The Lib Dems don't offer me much, despite periodic good policies.
Well, yes and there are significant differences between liberals and conservatives.
As far as the EU is concerned, this liberal democrat (former member) is concerned about any commitment to the Single Market (especially if it involves Freedom of Movement). I don't know whether membership of the SM is possible without a commitment to FoM - a better trading relationship is however certainly something worth considering.
The "written constitution" is an old liberal theme - I don't see any harm in having rights and obligations clearly documented and clear demarcation between Executive, Legislature and Judiciary. I'm opposed to the centralisation of successive Conservative and Labour Governments and the current administration has gone further in reducing the scrutiny and oversight of Parliament in favour of strengthening Whitehall and Ministers.
Sunak extraordinarily rubbish on housing, runs out the classic NIMBY lines - and he's wrong about the deposit being the issue... it's the income multiples often these days.
That's certainly the case in London - rules on income multiples will mean that two people both earning a median salary will need a deposit of around £100k to be able to buy an average 1 bed flat. Hard to do when you're paying £25k a year or more in rent...
But I suspect Sunak has long since given up on attracting votes from anyone under the age of 70 in those areas.
It hasn't been an inordinately interesting day for news or surprising policy announcements. The LD manifesto is long ; Refuk have apologised for the Hitler deal incident and the Tories don't seem to be pursuing it hard ; and Charlie Mullins of Pimlico Plumbers is asking Boris Johnson to join Farage in Reform. "That way they'll get to Number 10".
Any more polls, waiter ? I'm getting hungry again.
This is my patch - Think Ashfield will go to Reform - The seat makes neighbouring Mansfield look like Chelsea. Anything odds against on Ashfield is good value . Some find the indie controversial as well. I used to live in Rushcliffe and it is full of yummy mummies and daddies with kids - It will go Labour I think as Ken Clarke had a big personal vote and that takes two elections to totally unwind , also the tories have lost young well to do families in their quest to keep pensioners on board. If Reform take off further they could take Mansfield. PS I now live in the Castle Ward of the City which is now under Nottingham East (despite being if anything west ). I will be voting Reform especially as the Tory candidate picture has him wearing a hoodie and looking about 20 (show some respect to the electorate young man!)
The Park plus a few bits and mainly modern pieces !
I spent 6 months living at pretty much the closest house to the castle on Lenton Road when I was at University.
yes I live in the Park in a flat - I love the seasons there . I take it you used the "Narnia" entrance a lot
By the Narnia entrance, do you mean the City Centre tunnel from .. Tunnel Road?
I was actually Beeston-focused for work, and it was soon after the Park Residents Association had taken over from Oxford University Chest. So it had not been turned into the definitive LTN then - that happened about 1990.
I was so close to the city that it was quicker to walk over the top.
yes that entrance - I always like to take guests through there from the city centre side as it looks like you are walking into a dark garage before it suddenly opens up to a beautiful cave like tunnel and then the Park estate with its pristine tennis courts and Victorian mansions - Hence termed "Narnia" entrance. All the better effect as its not signposted at all
The Lib Dem manifesto summaries were great, thank you! Reassures me that despite my lack of enthusiasm, my vote for the Conservatives versus the Lib Dem challenger in my seat is right. The Lib Dem policies on the EU, a written constitution etc just do not speak to me. I am a self declared moderate conservative, but the second part of that label is as important. The Lib Dems don't offer me much, despite periodic good policies.
I guess this isn’t meant to be taking a personal pop, although it may come across as acerbic, but in your 5 short sentence summary of your decision to vote Conservative. You use ‘me’, ‘I’, and ‘my’ x 7 times.
Absolutely nothing about others.
Not sure that has anything to do with the kind of Cameron Big Society Conservatism or One Nation Toryism. Just sounds like ‘me, me, me.'
What a mean spirited post. Completely unnecessary
No the whole point was about the lack of society, or social conscience, or thinking about others in determining voting choice. The opposite therefore of mean spirited. If we are going to lift ourselves up as a country, and world, we have to start thinking about other people.
No man is an island,
Former New Zealand international cricketer Jeremy Coney may disagree.
NEW: make or break manifesto launch for Sunak tomorrow
Under-fire Tory chief will offer tax cuts for millions and a tough clampdown on soaring immigration in a last ditch effort to breathe life into his bid to remain PM
Well, it's not going to make; it's about avoiding the complete break.
Not much else he can do. A lot of people won't believe it and it will be called desperate, but when you're this far behind big swings are the only chance.
Labour has dropped a plan to reintroduce a cap on how much people are allowed to save into their pensions before paying tax.
Under the pensions lifetime allowance, pension pots over £1.07m faced an annual tax of £40,000 on average.
The cap was scrapped in April but Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves had vowed to bring it back, saying it could raise £800m a year.
However, her party has now reversed the decision ahead of the release of its manifesto on Thursday, reportedly because the cap would add uncertainty for savers and be complex to reintroduce.
NEW: make or break manifesto launch for Sunak tomorrow
Under-fire Tory chief will offer tax cuts for millions and a tough clampdown on soaring immigration in a last ditch effort to breathe life into his bid to remain PM
The Lib Dem manifesto summaries were great, thank you! Reassures me that despite my lack of enthusiasm, my vote for the Conservatives versus the Lib Dem challenger in my seat is right. The Lib Dem policies on the EU, a written constitution etc just do not speak to me. I am a self declared moderate conservative, but the second part of that label is as important. The Lib Dems don't offer me much, despite periodic good policies.
I guess this isn’t meant to be taking a personal pop, although it may come across as acerbic, but in your 5 short sentence summary of your decision to vote Conservative. You use ‘me’, ‘I’, and ‘my’ x 7 times.
Absolutely nothing about others.
Not sure that has anything to do with the kind of Cameron Big Society Conservatism or One Nation Toryism. Just sounds like ‘me, me, me.'
What a mean spirited post. Completely unnecessary
No the whole point was about the lack of society, or social conscience, or thinking about others in determining voting choice. The opposite therefore of mean spirited. If we are going to lift ourselves up as a country, and world, we have to start thinking about other people.
No man is an island,
Former New Zealand international cricketer Jeremy Coney may disagree.
This is my patch - Think Ashfield will go to Reform - The seat makes neighbouring Mansfield look like Chelsea. Anything odds against on Ashfield is good value . Some find the indie controversial as well. I used to live in Rushcliffe and it is full of yummy mummies and daddies with kids - It will go Labour I think as Ken Clarke had a big personal vote and that takes two elections to totally unwind , also the tories have lost young well to do families in their quest to keep pensioners on board. If Reform take off further they could take Mansfield. PS I now live in the Castle Ward of the City which is now under Nottingham East (despite being if anything west ). I will be voting Reform especially as the Tory candidate picture has him wearing a hoodie and looking about 20 (show some respect to the electorate young man!)
Lovely part of a handsome city. Have you eaten at World Service? I’ve heard good things…
No but eat a lot at Browns and occasionally Harts - It is indeed a great part of the city and fortunate to commute to Leicester most days so love the walk through The Park towards the station - In the winter it is stilll dark and therefore (uniquely I think in the country ) totally gas lit with a burning amber glow
Yes, the gas lights are magical. Definitely better to work in Leicester and live in Nottingham than vice versa!
Labour has dropped a plan to reintroduce a cap on how much people are allowed to save into their pensions before paying tax.
Under the pensions lifetime allowance, pension pots over £1.07m faced an annual tax of £40,000 on average.
The cap was scrapped in April but Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves had vowed to bring it back, saying it could raise £800m a year.
However, her party has now reversed the decision ahead of the release of its manifesto on Thursday, reportedly because the cap would add uncertainty for savers and be complex to reintroduce.
Do Starmer and Reeves have the courage to do anything ?
That really is pathetic. ISAs have ended up becoming a massive benefit for the rich and only ho hum for middle earners. Of course there should be a cap.
Which is all hunky-dory until you find that the surgeon who could save your life has taken early retirement.
This isn’t ISAs, it’s the pension lifetime cap which means you actually start paying a very high marginal rate of tax if your pension rises above the ceiling.
There’s an argument for reducing the ISA allowance, though not much fiscal payoff because government only benefits many years hence when people cash in their non-ISA gains. Whereas pensions tax changes have a fiscal effect straightaway
So with the lifetime cap, presumably this mostly causes problems for people like doctors whose pension scheme is fixed and defined-benefit? In a defined-contribution scheme you could just stop contributing.
You could stop contributing to DB schemes as well. To be honest the main unfairness is that DB benefits already have a very favourable treatment - as the multiple used on annual income is much lower than what it'd cost someone with DC to acquire that annuity.
NEW: make or break manifesto launch for Sunak tomorrow
Under-fire Tory chief will offer tax cuts for millions and a tough clampdown on soaring immigration in a last ditch effort to breathe life into his bid to remain PM
Well, it's not going to make; it's about avoiding the complete break.
The problem - as you know CR - is that no-one believes he will deliver on his promises so it doesn't matter what he promises. By extension it also doesn't matter what Starmer says or does. This isn't a cost of living election or an immigration election or a NHS election. This is a 'Kick them out election' and people are finding many different motives and means of doing so.
I've been quite interested in writing this piece to see the few places where Greens are making inroads - which is only in spots. It is really early days for them.
Derbyshire
Amber Valley - 5 Derbyshire Dales - 4 Erewash - 1 Hope Valley - 2 NW Derbsyhire - 1
The Lib Dem manifesto summaries were great, thank you! Reassures me that despite my lack of enthusiasm, my vote for the Conservatives versus the Lib Dem challenger in my seat is right. The Lib Dem policies on the EU, a written constitution etc just do not speak to me. I am a self declared moderate conservative, but the second part of that label is as important. The Lib Dems don't offer me much, despite periodic good policies.
I guess this isn’t meant to be taking a personal pop, although it may come across as acerbic, but in your 5 short sentence summary of your decision to vote Conservative. You use ‘me’, ‘I’, and ‘my’ x 7 times.
Absolutely nothing about others.
Not sure that has anything to do with the kind of Cameron Big Society Conservatism or One Nation Toryism. Just sounds like ‘me, me, me.'
What a mean spirited post. Completely unnecessary
No the whole point was about the lack of society, or social conscience, or thinking about others in determining voting choice. The opposite therefore of mean spirited. If we are going to lift ourselves up as a country, and world, we have to start thinking about other people.
No man is an island,
Former New Zealand international cricketer Jeremy Coney may disagree.
Sunak extraordinarily rubbish on housing, runs out the classic NIMBY lines - and he's wrong about the deposit being the issue... it's the income multiples often these days.
Did he say he supports housing but in the right place, and we need to focus on Brownfield?
I prefer to turn brownfield into country parks and nature reserves.
I don't know if anyone's watching Rishi but he's not looking like a Prime Minister.
I am watching. Its pretty unpleasant, sunak pleading it will be different next time for policy failure after policy failure.
Bake off here.
Sunak has lost. He has nothing of any interest to say now. The more people see him the less they seem to like him.
He looked totally defeated with 3 weeks to go.
It's hard to keep up spirits and boost morale when everything seems to be going wrong. How do they stop a spiral at this point?
No good news is going to be cropping up, unless Starmer decides to do an interview where he says he hates old people, Britain, and has decided to join Hamas.
If Starmer did that then suddenly its Prime Minister Sir Ed Davey!
Labour has dropped a plan to reintroduce a cap on how much people are allowed to save into their pensions before paying tax.
Under the pensions lifetime allowance, pension pots over £1.07m faced an annual tax of £40,000 on average.
The cap was scrapped in April but Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves had vowed to bring it back, saying it could raise £800m a year.
However, her party has now reversed the decision ahead of the release of its manifesto on Thursday, reportedly because the cap would add uncertainty for savers and be complex to reintroduce.
Do Starmer and Reeves have the courage to do anything ?
That really is pathetic. ISAs have ended up becoming a massive benefit for the rich and only ho hum for middle earners. Of course there should be a cap.
Which is all hunky-dory until you find that the surgeon who could save your life has taken early retirement.
This isn’t ISAs, it’s the pension lifetime cap which means you actually start paying a very high marginal rate of tax if your pension rises above the ceiling.
There’s an argument for reducing the ISA allowance, though not much fiscal payoff because government only benefits many years hence when people cash in their non-ISA gains. Whereas pensions tax changes have a fiscal effect straightaway
So with the lifetime cap, presumably this mostly causes problems for people like doctors whose pension scheme is fixed and defined-benefit? In a defined-contribution scheme you could just stop contributing.
No, because it’s based on value. So you have to guess years ahead of retirement what the growth of the pension investments will be and when to stop saving.
It hasn't been an inordinately interesting day for news or surprising policy announcements. The LD manifesto is long ; Refuk have apologised for the Hitler deal incident and the Tories don't seem to be pursuing it hard ; and Charlie Mullins of Pimlico Plumbers is asking Boris Johnson to join Farage in Reform. "That way they'll get to Number 10".
Any more polls, waiter ? I'm getting hungry again.
I thought Charlie Mullins was an arch-Europhile? Why would he want Johnson/Farage to be in Downing Street?
"The sad thing is that I actually liked him. But a lack of thought about something so big makes you question everything else about him.” The quote sums up our focus group from Chichester this evening, where D-Day was the first topic everyone wanted to discuss.
Remarkable that Casino and HYUFD said it was going to be a non-story!
I don't buy that to be honest - as an aside the juiciest gossip I've heard this week is that asking all major political figures how many children they have could have some very interesting revelations.
So true. Who now trusts any of these lying fucks? They cancelled and destroyed people for a year or more, for simply stating the obvious. The weird bat virus probably came from the weird bat virus lab 209 yards away
They called that “a racist conspiracy theory”
Why should we trust any of them again? That is the tragedy
General Election Competition In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 30 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 30 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 5 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 100 5. Reform lose their deposit? 300 6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 35,000 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 18,000
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 50 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 500 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 5
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 11 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 150 14. Seats will Labour win? 415 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 40 16. Seats will the SNP win? 20 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7 18. Seats will DUP win? 5 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 15
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 28% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 6% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 27% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 27% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 35% 25. Will Speaker get? 75%
"The sad thing is that I actually liked him. But a lack of thought about something so big makes you question everything else about him.” The quote sums up our focus group from Chichester this evening, where D-Day was the first topic everyone wanted to discuss.
Remarkable that Casino and HYUFD said it was going to be a non-story!
I admit I’m almost as surprised as they are. I mean it was evidently politically stupid, but I didn’t think anyone would actively be upset by it.
I've been quite interested in writing this piece to see the few places where Greens are making inroads - which is only in spots. It is really early days for them.
Derbyshire
Amber Valley - 5 Derbyshire Dales - 4 Erewash - 1 Hope Valley - 2 NW Derbsyhire - 1
Nottinghamshire
Rushcliffe - 2
Rushcliffe has always had 2 greens for years on the local council as they represent Lady Bay - The slightly more bohemian part of otherwise conventional yummy mummy and daddy with good state schools West Bridgford.I think the 2 are husband and wife as well
An extremely tough interview not handled well though in fairness it was vicious in parts.
Apparently Paul Brand’s is much worse. Maybe that’s why Nick R thought he had to be tough.
I think Nick understands that the times they are a changing. TBF he is replacing Andrew Neil who - despite his politics - was always equally brutal to every party leader.
Just by way of example of how people get fooled in to believing non existent policies. Labour's new 'new prisons' policy got people excited a few days ago. 20,000 new prison spaces. Except... the 20,000 new prisons were already planned by the tories. Labour 'busting through planning' was not a seriously different policy to what already exists. Ministers are already overriding local objections through their ability to 'call in' planning applications. The new labour policy, upon serious analysis, can only be charitably described as 'enigmatic'. A planning lawyer explains.
Defence * National service for 18 year olds * Defence to 2.5% by 2030
Benefits * Welfare reform to save £12bn * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs
Crime * 8,000 new police offices * Increased sentences for the most serious offences * US-style system of first and second degree murder
Housing * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k * Ending no-fault evictions * Protecting green belt
Immigration * Cap on work and family visas
Illegal immigration * Double down on Rwanda * Talks with other third countries
ECHR * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'
Health * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses * Pledging to reduce waiting lists * Using AI to speed up diagnostics
Social care * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package
Net zero * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'
I don't know if anyone's watching Rishi but he's not looking like a Prime Minister.
I am watching. Its pretty unpleasant, sunak pleading it will be different next time for policy failure after policy failure.
Bake off here.
Sunak has lost. He has nothing of any interest to say now. The more people see him the less they seem to like him.
He looked totally defeated with 3 weeks to go.
It's hard to keep up spirits and boost morale when everything seems to be going wrong. How do they stop a spiral at this point?
No good news is going to be cropping up, unless Starmer decides to do an interview where he says he hates old people, Britain, and has decided to join Hamas.
I would have thought that would firm up his support, actually. Given his target demographics.
Labour has dropped a plan to reintroduce a cap on how much people are allowed to save into their pensions before paying tax.
Under the pensions lifetime allowance, pension pots over £1.07m faced an annual tax of £40,000 on average.
The cap was scrapped in April but Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves had vowed to bring it back, saying it could raise £800m a year.
However, her party has now reversed the decision ahead of the release of its manifesto on Thursday, reportedly because the cap would add uncertainty for savers and be complex to reintroduce.
Do Starmer and Reeves have the courage to do anything ?
That really is pathetic. ISAs have ended up becoming a massive benefit for the rich and only ho hum for middle earners. Of course there should be a cap.
Which is all hunky-dory until you find that the surgeon who could save your life has taken early retirement.
This isn’t ISAs, it’s the pension lifetime cap which means you actually start paying a very high marginal rate of tax if your pension rises above the ceiling.
There’s an argument for reducing the ISA allowance, though not much fiscal payoff because government only benefits many years hence when people cash in their non-ISA gains. Whereas pensions tax changes have a fiscal effect straightaway
So with the lifetime cap, presumably this mostly causes problems for people like doctors whose pension scheme is fixed and defined-benefit? In a defined-contribution scheme you could just stop contributing.
Under defined contribution you still don't know how much assets will grow by from when you contributed to when you receive your pension. Quite possible with compound interest for people to accidentally go above the cap. Albeit it's much less likely as people don't contribute enough to get close.
Our savings rates as a country are too low, so I'm generally supportive of removing a arbitrary limit on how much can be saved in a certain way, particularly when it encourages productive members of society to retire early.
Defence * National service for 18 year olds * Defence to 2.5% by 2030
Benefits * Welfare reform to save £12bn * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs
Crime * 8,000 new police offices * Increased sentences for the most serious offences * US-style system of first and second degree murder
Housing * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k * Ending no-fault evictions * Protecting green belt
Immigration * Cap on work and family visas
Illegal immigration * Double down on Rwanda * Talks with other third countries
ECHR * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'
Health * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses * Pledging to reduce waiting lists * Using AI to speed up diagnostics
Social care * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package
Net zero * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'
Does that mean we're finally getting rid of PPE, Classics and the English faculty of Cambridge?
I would not be surprised to see Newark flip to Labour. The seat has a history of bouncing back and forth between Tory and Labour.
Throughout the Wilson/Heath/Callaghan years it was solidly Labour with Ted Bishop Under Thatcher it was Tory with Richard Alexander In 1997 it was won by the ill starred Fiona Jones, one of Blair's Babes. In 2001 it was one of the very few seats won back by the Tories with Patrick Mercer becoming MP. He retained the seat in 2005 and 2010 before resigning in disgrace in 2013 and being replaced by the loathsome Jenrick.
Jenrick might have a 21,800 seat majority and have got 63% at the last election but as we all know 2019 was a lifetime ago politically and Jenrick is no where near as popular locally as he once was.
Yes he will probably win again but it is no where near as certain as the raw figures might indicate.
If we could vote for one Portillo moment in 2024, man the Newark declaration would be top of my list.
Defence * National service for 18 year olds * Defence to 2.5% by 2030
Benefits * Welfare reform to save £12bn * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs
Crime * 8,000 new police offices * Increased sentences for the most serious offences * US-style system of first and second degree murder
Housing * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k * Ending no-fault evictions * Protecting green belt
Immigration * Cap on work and family visas
Illegal immigration * Double down on Rwanda * Talks with other third countries
ECHR * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'
Health * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses * Pledging to reduce waiting lists * Using AI to speed up diagnostics
Social care * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package
Net zero * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'
"Welfare reform to save £12bn"
I'm sure welfare was reformed earlier in this government's time in office...
I would not be surprised to see Newark flip to Labour. The seat has a history of bouncing back and forth between Tory and Labour.
Throughout the Wilson/Heath/Callaghan years it was solidly Labour with Ted Bishop Under Thatcher it was Tory with Richard Alexander In 1997 it was won by the ill starred Fiona Jones, one of Blair's Babes. In 2001 it was one of the very few seats won back by the Tories with Patrick Mercer becoming MP. He retained the seat in 2005 and 2010 before resigning in disgrace in 2013 and being replaced by the loathsome Jenrick.
Jenrick might have a 21,800 seat majority and have got 63% at the last election but as we all know 2019 was a lifetime ago politically and Jenrick is no where near as popular locally as he once was.
Yes he will probably win again but it is no where near as certain as the raw figures might indicate.
Also worth adding that the Tories lost half their seats (from 27 to 14 out of 39) and their majority on Newark and Sherwood District Council last year. I do not regard this as a safe Tory seat.
I've been quite interested in writing this piece to see the few places where Greens are making inroads - which is only in spots. It is really early days for them.
Derbyshire
Amber Valley - 5 Derbyshire Dales - 4 Erewash - 1 Hope Valley - 2 NW Derbsyhire - 1
Nottinghamshire
Rushcliffe - 2
Rushcliffe has always had 2 greens for years on the local council as they represent Lady Bay - The slightly more bohemian part of otherwise conventional yummy mummy and daddy with good state schools West Bridgford.I think the 2 are husband and wife as well
That's interesting - what do you think of the planned cycling / walking bridge in Lady Bay?
I did the cycle ride from Victoria Embankment out to Holme Pierrepont and back one evening this spring, and it was great. The rural cycling is nothing on the North of the county around Mansfield and toward Chesterfield, but it has its moments. They are far better at the urban, however.
To me it looks OK but the design is not quite up to spec in some respects - especially the (cycking / wheeling) ramp coming up to one side of the deck, with the huge flight of steps directly opposite the top on the other side of the walkway - so one slip on the throttle of a mobility scooter and it goes flying like a ski jumper.
But that's a culture change we need in infra design practices.
Defence * National service for 18 year olds * Defence to 2.5% by 2030
Benefits * Welfare reform to save £12bn * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs
Crime * 8,000 new police offices * Increased sentences for the most serious offences * US-style system of first and second degree murder
Housing * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k * Ending no-fault evictions * Protecting green belt
Immigration * Cap on work and family visas
Illegal immigration * Double down on Rwanda * Talks with other third countries
ECHR * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'
Health * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses * Pledging to reduce waiting lists * Using AI to speed up diagnostics
Social care * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package
Net zero * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'
I notice the education bit contains absolutely zilch about school age kids.
It hasn't been an inordinately interesting day for news or surprising policy announcements. The LD manifesto is long ; Refuk have apologised for the Hitler deal incident and the Tories don't seem to be pursuing it hard ; and Charlie Mullins of Pimlico Plumbers is asking Boris Johnson to join Farage in Reform. "That way they'll get to Number 10".
Any more polls, waiter ? I'm getting hungry again.
I thought Charlie Mullins was an arch-Europhile? Why would he want Johnson/Farage to be in Downing Street?
He does seem to be a bit of a comedy character, like one of Harry Enfield'a "Double Take Brothers" from the 1990s.
He says that he suddenly decided to join Reform a couple of weeks ago because "he could see Nigel Farage coming", and that "all we need now is Boris to join, too", according to politicshome. Ann Widdecombe is quoted as being equally excited about the saviour's return , in the same article.
Not sure why they think this sort of behaviour could possibly help matters...
They are setting the stage to argue that the reason for the upcoming loss was because they were not tough enough on these subjects, no matter how tough Rishi promises to be. That then sets up the leadership contest.
Not sure why they think this sort of behaviour could possibly help matters...
An open rebellion and a split party? Well a quarter of the Tories can always be counted on for their forthright but demented ideology. It almost feels like Truss and Braverman are Militant style entryists for Reform. Post election they may yet end up carrying the can for defeat. A purge of nutters is overdue. Only question is will that be too late ? Maybe the Tories really are beyond saving ..
So true. Who now trusts any of these lying fucks? They cancelled and destroyed people for a year or more, for simply stating the obvious. The weird bat virus probably came from the weird bat virus lab 209 yards away
They called that “a racist conspiracy theory”
Why should we trust any of them again? That is the tragedy
Interestingly most of the article is about other aspects, such as where the 2m rule came from and whether covid was aerosol (not airborne as she writes) or droplet based. There is a point in their about scientists interacting with media. True scientists acknowledge what we don’t know. They lack certainty. Anyone who is 100% sure of things raises alarm bells. In the pandemic too many public advisers etc tried to be 100% sure as they didn’t want to seem like they didn’t know the answers. I think this was a big mistake. We learned rapidly about how covid worked. It was pretty quickly apparent that it was aerosol spread in the main yet we still had the wrong measures in place everywhere (screens in shops that reduced air circulation, for instance). I put a lot of blame on the media for this.
Sunak extraordinarily rubbish on housing, runs out the classic NIMBY lines - and he's wrong about the deposit being the issue... it's the income multiples often these days.
That's certainly the case in London - rules on income multiples will mean that two people both earning a median salary will need a deposit of around £100k to be able to buy an average 1 bed flat. Hard to do when you're paying £25k a year or more in rent...
But I suspect Sunak has long since given up on attracting votes from anyone under the age of 70 in those areas.
There are lots of 1 bed flats in London that can be bought by people on low incomes. 2 median incomes at 44k = 88k. On a cautious multiple of 4 that gives you £350k which is more than sufficient to buy a flat in many parts of London. You are not far off being able to afford to buy a house in some unfashionable areas for that amount. There are also various new build discounted market purchase schemes. With shared ownership you can buy a newbuild flat with a household income of around £35k and a deposit of around £3500.
Not sure why they think this sort of behaviour could possibly help matters...
They are setting the stage to argue that the reason for the upcoming loss was because they were not tough enough on these subjects, no matter how tough Rishi promises to be. That then sets up the leadership contest.
Defence * National service for 18 year olds * Defence to 2.5% by 2030
Benefits * Welfare reform to save £12bn * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs
Crime * 8,000 new police offices * Increased sentences for the most serious offences * US-style system of first and second degree murder
Housing * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k * Ending no-fault evictions * Protecting green belt
Immigration * Cap on work and family visas
Illegal immigration * Double down on Rwanda * Talks with other third countries
ECHR * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'
Health * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses * Pledging to reduce waiting lists * Using AI to speed up diagnostics
Social care * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package
Net zero * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'
Will there be any police to go in the new offices?
Defence * National service for 18 year olds * Defence to 2.5% by 2030
Benefits * Welfare reform to save £12bn * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs
Crime * 8,000 new police offices * Increased sentences for the most serious offences * US-style system of first and second degree murder
Housing * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k * Ending no-fault evictions * Protecting green belt
Immigration * Cap on work and family visas
Illegal immigration * Double down on Rwanda * Talks with other third countries
ECHR * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'
Health * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses * Pledging to reduce waiting lists * Using AI to speed up diagnostics
Social care * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package
Net zero * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'
So true. Who now trusts any of these lying fucks? They cancelled and destroyed people for a year or more, for simply stating the obvious. The weird bat virus probably came from the weird bat virus lab 209 yards away
They called that “a racist conspiracy theory”
Why should we trust any of them again? That is the tragedy
Interestingly most of the article is about other aspects, such as where the 2m rule came from and whether covid was aerosol (not airborne as she writes) or droplet based. There is a point in their about scientists interacting with media. True scientists acknowledge what we don’t know. They lack certainty. Anyone who is 100% sure of things raises alarm bells. In the pandemic too many public advisers etc tried to be 100% sure as they didn’t want to seem like they didn’t know the answers. I think this was a big mistake. We learned rapidly about how covid worked. It was pretty quickly apparent that it was aerosol spread in the main yet we still had the wrong measures in place everywhere (screens in shops that reduced air circulation, for instance). I put a lot of blame on the media for this.
You pathetic spineless fool
You need to spend a year pouring ashes over your head and apologising for your putrid fibs
It hasn't been an inordinately interesting day for news or surprising policy announcements. The LD manifesto is long ; Refuk have apologised for the Hitler deal incident and the Tories don't seem to be pursuing it hard ; and Charlie Mullins of Pimlico Plumbers is asking Boris Johnson to join Farage in Reform. "That way they'll get to Number 10".
Any more polls, waiter ? I'm getting hungry again.
Hitler deal? What have I missed?
The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?
He agreed with the Conservative Foreign Secretary (of the time) that we should have made peace with Hitler in 1940
It hasn't been an inordinately interesting day for news or surprising policy announcements. The LD manifesto is long ; Refuk have apologised for the Hitler deal incident and the Tories don't seem to be pursuing it hard ; and Charlie Mullins of Pimlico Plumbers is asking Boris Johnson to join Farage in Reform. "That way they'll get to Number 10".
Any more polls, waiter ? I'm getting hungry again.
I thought Charlie Mullins was an arch-Europhile? Why would he want Johnson/Farage to be in Downing Street?
There's a forgetten segment of Remainers in the mould of Jeremy Clarkson who are not fond of managerial centrism.
General Election Competition In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (2) 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 65 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 4 5. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 250 6. Reform lose their deposit? 480 7. Labour lose their deposit? 3
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 36,000 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 24,000
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 2 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 1,600 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 2
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 12 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 200 14. Seats will Labour win? 379 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 25 16. Seats will the SNP win? 28 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 9 18. Seats will DUP win? 4 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 6
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 31% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 4.5% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 33% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 29% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 41% 25. Will Speaker get? 85%
In the newly named Sherwood Forest constituency , there are27 people claiming to be Robin Hood and the Outlaw party may have a chance
Inflation with the Boundary Commission as usual, always making constituency names longer, and almost never shorter.
They give in to complaints that a constituency name is not inclusive enough by listing all places in it, by making them longer after the first consultation sta. It serves as a distraction and shows they don't reject all comments.
Absolute fucking wankers. We need groveling apologies
As Tonto said to the Lone Ranger when surrounded and outnumbered by attacking Apaches, who, exactly are 'we' in this context?
Anyone with a fucking brain and a backbone who is angry about 20 million dead people killed by a virus almost certainly caused by extremely dodgy science leaking out of a Chinese laboratory and covered up by other scientists for years
💥 Based on historic campaign polls, Labour is now on course for their biggest popular vote win *ever*.
📊 POLL AVG: Labour leads by 21.7 pts (+1.4) 🔮 FORECAST: Labour victory by 17.9 pts (+2.4) - 50% chance of a Labour win by 14–22 pts - 90% chance of a Labour win by 9–27 pts
"The sad thing is that I actually liked him. But a lack of thought about something so big makes you question everything else about him.” The quote sums up our focus group from Chichester this evening, where D-Day was the first topic everyone wanted to discuss.
Remarkable that Casino and HYUFD said it was going to be a non-story!
I admit I’m almost as surprised as they are. I mean it was evidently politically stupid, but I didn’t think anyone would actively be upset by it.
I think it was particularly lethal for two reasons:
1) context: the campaign was already going badly. 2) it’s a kind of tabula rasa gaffe - his critics of all shades can project onto it whichever failings they perceive.
I don't know if anyone's watching Rishi but he's not looking like a Prime Minister.
I am watching. Its pretty unpleasant, sunak pleading it will be different next time for policy failure after policy failure.
Bake off here.
Sunak has lost. He has nothing of any interest to say now. The more people see him the less they seem to like him.
The longer this goes on the more I remember Major with admiration - who could win with a degree of humility and modesty, and lose (bigly) with a degree of grace, after running a determined though hopeless campaign.
Not sure why they think this sort of behaviour could possibly help matters...
They are not trying to 'help matters' where Sunak is concerned, that's a lost cause. They're trying to save their own seats by being able to point to something they've done that's actually aimed at sorting out the UK's problems not just accepting them like some harrassed receptionist in a 1-star hotel.
Absolute fucking wankers. We need groveling apologies
As Tonto said to the Lone Ranger when surrounded and outnumbered by attacking Apaches, who, exactly are 'we' in this context?
Anyone with a fucking brain and a backbone who is angry about 20 million dead people killed by a virus almost certainly caused by extremely dodgy science leaking out of a Chinese laboratory and covered up by other scientists for years
And they all "need" grovelling apologies from three or four anonymous posters on a slightly nerdy politics discussion board? It's not exactly Judgment at Nuremberg is it?
I've been quite interested in writing this piece to see the few places where Greens are making inroads - which is only in spots. It is really early days for them.
Derbyshire
Amber Valley - 5 Derbyshire Dales - 4 Erewash - 1 Hope Valley - 2 NW Derbsyhire - 1
Nottinghamshire
Rushcliffe - 2
Rushcliffe has always had 2 greens for years on the local council as they represent Lady Bay - The slightly more bohemian part of otherwise conventional yummy mummy and daddy with good state schools West Bridgford.I think the 2 are husband and wife as well
That's interesting - what do you think of the planned cycling / walking bridge in Lady Bay?
I did the cycle ride from Victoria Embankment out to Holme Pierrepont and back one evening this spring, and it was great. The rural cycling is nothing on the North of the county around Mansfield and toward Chesterfield, but it has its moments. They are far better at the urban, however.
To me it looks OK but the design is not quite up to spec in some respects - especially the (cycking / wheeling) ramp coming up to one side of the deck, with the huge flight of steps directly opposite the top on the other side of the walkway - so one slip on the throttle of a mobility scooter and it goes flying like a ski jumper.
But that's a culture change we need in infra design practices.
yes it would be nice to have a bridge there as it would make getting to Colwick park easier . I run that route a lot - call it the white gate route as I turn around at the white gate to the sailing club
Defence * National service for 18 year olds * Defence to 2.5% by 2030
Benefits * Welfare reform to save £12bn * Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs
Crime * 8,000 new police offices * Increased sentences for the most serious offences * US-style system of first and second degree murder
Housing * Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k * Ending no-fault evictions * Protecting green belt
Immigration * Cap on work and family visas
Illegal immigration * Double down on Rwanda * Talks with other third countries
ECHR * Reform but leaving 'all options on table'
Health * Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses * Pledging to reduce waiting lists * Using AI to speed up diagnostics
Social care * Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package
Net zero * Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'
What a pile of shite.
Yep, that ain’t gonna turn any tides.
Doomed, the lot of them. They’d better pray Reform don’t hit crossover in the next week, because there’s a huge competency vacuum on the right that Farage can exploit, I’m afraid.
It hasn't been an inordinately interesting day for news or surprising policy announcements. The LD manifesto is long ; Refuk have apologised for the Hitler deal incident and the Tories don't seem to be pursuing it hard ; and Charlie Mullins of Pimlico Plumbers is asking Boris Johnson to join Farage in Reform. "That way they'll get to Number 10".
Any more polls, waiter ? I'm getting hungry again.
I thought Charlie Mullins was an arch-Europhile? Why would he want Johnson/Farage to be in Downing Street?
There's a forgetten segment of Remainers in the mould of Jeremy Clarkson who are not fond of managerial centrism.
I've tumbled your game. You are Charlie Mullins and I claim a lift in your Rolls Royce.
"Tuffer Sentensiz" has been kicked around so much that it's just meaningless.
Sentences have got longer, there is lots of data on this. The problem is that there is no prison capacity and no viable plan to increase it (something also absent from this list).
RefUK have a plan, to use disused military barracks as jails. An evidence based manifesto!
Comments
"The sad thing is that I actually liked him. But a lack of thought about something so big makes you question everything else about him.” The quote sums up our focus group from Chichester this evening, where D-Day was the first topic everyone wanted to discuss.
No good news is going to be cropping up, unless Starmer decides to do an interview where he says he hates old people, Britain, and has decided to join Hamas.
"ORONO, Maine - The world's largest 3D printer has created a house that can cut construction time and labor. An even larger printer unveiled on Tuesday may one day create entire neighborhoods.
The machine revealed Tuesday at the University of Maine is four times larger than the first one — commissioned less than five years ago — and capable of printing ever mightier objects. That includes scaling up its 3D-printed home technology using bio-based materials to eventually demonstrate how printed neighborhoods can offer an avenue to affordable housing to address homelessness in the region."
source: https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/worlds-largest-3d-printer-maine-housing/
Million quid plus pension pots may be common among PBers but out in the real world people do well to get to a hundred thousand:
https://www.pensionbee.com/pension-landscape
I was actually Beeston-focused for work, and it was soon after the Park Residents Association had taken over from Oxford University Chest. So it had not been turned into the definitive LTN then - that happened about 1990.
I was so close to the city that it was quicker to walk over the top past the castle when headed that way.
As far as the EU is concerned, this liberal democrat (former member) is concerned about any commitment to the Single Market (especially if it involves Freedom of Movement). I don't know whether membership of the SM is possible without a commitment to FoM - a better trading relationship is however certainly something worth considering.
The "written constitution" is an old liberal theme - I don't see any harm in having rights and obligations clearly documented and clear demarcation between Executive, Legislature and Judiciary. I'm opposed to the centralisation of successive Conservative and Labour Governments and the current administration has gone further in reducing the scrutiny and oversight of Parliament in favour of strengthening Whitehall and Ministers.
But I suspect Sunak has long since given up on attracting votes from anyone under the age of 70 in those areas.
It sounds good but its baffling me.
Winning here
Derbyshire
Amber Valley - 5
Derbyshire Dales - 4
Erewash - 1
Hope Valley - 2
NW Derbsyhire - 1
Nottinghamshire
Rushcliffe - 2
And to build houses on mono-cultural arable land.
I don't believe Boris would go to that length to reward one of his alleged children - the others would demand the same no doubt.
to guess years ahead of retirement what the growth of the pension investments will be and when to stop saving.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/08/opinion/covid-fauci-hearings-health.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb
So true. Who now trusts any of these lying fucks? They cancelled and destroyed people for a year or more, for simply stating the obvious. The weird bat virus probably came from the weird bat virus lab 209 yards away
They called that “a racist conspiracy theory”
Why should we trust any of them again? That is the tragedy
@Farooq
General Election Competition
In how many seats will:
1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 30
2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 30
3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 5
4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 100
5. Reform lose their deposit? 300
6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 35,000
8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 18,000
How small:
9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 50
10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 500
11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 5
How many:
12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 11
13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 150
14. Seats will Labour win? 415
15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 40
16. Seats will the SNP win? 20
17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
18. Seats will DUP win? 5
19. Seats will Reform come second in? 15
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 28%
21. Will Reform get across the UK? 6%
22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 27%
23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 27%
24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 35%
25. Will Speaker get? 75%
Thanks for organising
@BBCPolitics
Rishi Sunak says affording a home has “got harder” under a Conservative government
Labour's new 'new prisons' policy got people excited a few days ago. 20,000 new prison spaces.
Except... the 20,000 new prisons were already planned by the tories.
Labour 'busting through planning' was not a seriously different policy to what already exists. Ministers are already overriding local objections through their ability to 'call in' planning applications.
The new labour policy, upon serious analysis, can only be charitably described as 'enigmatic'.
A planning lawyer explains.
https://simonicity.com/2024/06/10/new-prisons/
The kitchen sink manifesto?
Rishi Sunak will tomorrow unveil dozens of pledges amounting to nearly £20bn of tax cuts and public spending. But will it cut through to voters?
Tax:
* 2p cut in national insurance
* Income tax cut for pensioners
* Child benefit expansion
Education
* Scrap 'Mickey Mouse' degrees
* Free childcare
Defence
* National service for 18 year olds
* Defence to 2.5% by 2030
Benefits
* Welfare reform to save £12bn
* Taking sick note responsibility away from GPs
Crime
* 8,000 new police offices
* Increased sentences for the most serious offences
* US-style system of first and second degree murder
Housing
* Permanently scrapping stamp duty on purchases up to £425k
* Ending no-fault evictions
* Protecting green belt
Immigration
* Cap on work and family visas
Illegal immigration
* Double down on Rwanda
* Talks with other third countries
ECHR
* Reform but leaving 'all options on table'
Health
* Investing another £2.4bn to expand training places to new doctors and nurses
* Pledging to reduce waiting lists
* Using AI to speed up diagnostics
Social care
* Committing to Boris Johnson's delayed package
Net zero
* Hitting net zero in a way that 'limits costs to consumers'
I remember Gordon Brown tried that argument too.
Didn't impress any of us very much.
Our savings rates as a country are too low, so I'm generally supportive of removing a arbitrary limit on how much can be saved in a certain way, particularly when it encourages productive members of society to retire early.
https://x.com/haaretzcom/status/1800222647000977879
Conservative rightwingers are planning to present Rishi Sunak with demands for tougher action on immigration and human rights law ahead of the election if the prime minister’s manifesto promises on Tuesday fall flat.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/10/tory-right-plans-to-present-sunak-with-set-of-demands-if-manifesto-falls-flat
Not sure why they think this sort of behaviour could possibly help matters...
@bondegezou
@turbotubbs
@Farooq
Maybe
@JosiasJessop
Absolute fucking wankers. We need groveling apologies
I'm sure welfare was reformed earlier in this government's time in office...
Magic money tree stuff.
To stop the stumps bleeding, let's now jump headfirst into a vat of boiling oil.
I did the cycle ride from Victoria Embankment out to Holme Pierrepont and back one evening this spring, and it was great. The rural cycling is nothing on the North of the county around Mansfield and toward Chesterfield, but it has its moments. They are far better at the urban, however.
To me it looks OK but the design is not quite up to spec in some respects - especially the (cycking / wheeling) ramp coming up to one side of the deck, with the huge flight of steps directly opposite the top on the other side of the walkway - so one slip on the throttle of a mobility scooter and it goes flying like a ski jumper.
But that's a culture change we need in infra design practices.
He says that he suddenly decided to join Reform a couple of weeks ago because "he could see Nigel Farage coming", and that "all we need now is Boris to join, too", according to politicshome. Ann Widdecombe is quoted as being equally excited about the saviour's return , in the same article.
We learned rapidly about how covid worked. It was pretty quickly apparent that it was aerosol spread in the main yet we still had the wrong measures in place everywhere (screens in shops that reduced air circulation, for instance).
I put a lot of blame on the media for this.
There are lots of 1 bed flats in London that can be bought by people on low incomes. 2 median incomes at 44k = 88k. On a cautious multiple of 4 that gives you £350k which is more than sufficient to buy a flat in many parts of London. You are not far off being able to afford to buy a house in some unfashionable areas for that amount. There are also various new build discounted market purchase schemes. With shared ownership you can buy a newbuild flat with a household income of around £35k and a deposit of around £3500.
* 8,000 new police offices
* Increased sentences for the most serious offences
* US-style system of first and second degree murder
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1800252535166398912
You need to spend a year pouring ashes over your head and apologising for your putrid fibs
General Election Competition
In how many seats will:
1. Reform beat Conservative (2)
2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 65
3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 4
5. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 250
6. Reform lose their deposit? 480
7. Labour lose their deposit? 3
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 36,000
8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 24,000
How small:
9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 2
10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 1,600
11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 2
How many:
12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 12
13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 200
14. Seats will Labour win? 379
15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 25
16. Seats will the SNP win? 28
17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 9
18. Seats will DUP win? 4
19. Seats will Reform come second in? 6
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 31%
21. Will Reform get across the UK? 4.5%
22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 33%
23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 29%
24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 41%
25. Will Speaker get? 85%
💥 Based on historic campaign polls, Labour is now on course for their biggest popular vote win *ever*.
📊 POLL AVG: Labour leads by 21.7 pts (+1.4)
🔮 FORECAST: Labour victory by 17.9 pts (+2.4)
- 50% chance of a Labour win by 14–22 pts
- 90% chance of a Labour win by 9–27 pts
https://x.com/patrickjfl/status/1800253903105065144
1) context: the campaign was already going badly.
2) it’s a kind of tabula rasa gaffe - his critics of all shades can project onto it whichever failings they perceive.
Doomed, the lot of them. They’d better pray Reform don’t hit crossover in the next week, because there’s a huge competency vacuum on the right that Farage can exploit, I’m afraid.
Failing that, are you Clarkson?
RefUK have a plan, to use disused military barracks as jails. An evidence based manifesto!