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I suspect this is sub-optimal for the Tories and Sunak – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,084
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:


    No hyperlinking of chapters – loss of points right there.
    That's accessibility guidance for you. The theory is, a screen reader can take the user to the relevant point but it can't take them back.
    Sometimes it does seem to go too far to make things awkward for more people than it helps - especially in cases like this where they've produced an easy read version in any case.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    biggles said:

    I'll start this with the opinion that fighting in 1939 and not coming to an arrangement with Nazi Germany in 1940 was the morally correct thing to do - even before we found out about the full horror of the Holocaust. But there can be a clear argument that Hitler had no intention of fighting the British - his ambitions were constrained by his continentalist view of the world. Arguably one of the reasons that Germany lost was that Hitler never appreciated Britains position of dominance in Naval terms, both in military and merchant. As a result Britain and its allies could close off the continent in terms of imports, and hence the only source of Oil was Romania (outside of the fantasy of seizing the Caucasian oil fields and somehow transporting said oil to the Reich. In food terms too, Germans were on rationing early in the war and even with an entire continent could not get enough food, even including the infamous Hunger Plan to murder millions in the East by starvation.

    If the UK had not fought in 1939 then Hitler would still have lost to the USSR - it may have taken longer, but the unresolved question about Barbarossa always remained - how to you defeat a nation so vast and with the ability to ship its factories and workers thousands of miles to the East? Germany was set up for short wars, which works when you victim runs out of space to retreat into (Poland, France etc). It didn't in Russia. Its not even clear that capturing Moscow would have ended the war - why surrender when you enemy isn't offering handshakes and you losing a bit of territory, but is instead intent on your utter annihilation? IN 1941 in the Ukraine and the Baltic States the Germans were welcomed as liberators. A counterfactual has the Germans playing this role and forming independent states as allies, but of course that was never going to work because the Nazis were a racist state looking for land and resources, not new buffer countries.

    If the UK has stayed out no huge bill to the USA. Better able to fight Japan, assuming Japan had still attacked. Imperial decline would still have happened, but probably slower.

    So you can make a case for staying neutral, as many wanted to do, and indeed for suing for peace in 1940, which very nearly happened. Its not made to say it, even if morally we did the right thing.

    You could even argue that we should have enabled and supported the Nazis.

    Again, let’s take as read that you and I agree we did the morally correct thing in reality, and aren’t actually arguing for a different approach, but playing the game:

    By the late 30s it was clear that communism and fascism were two cheeks of the same arse, and were really just totalitarian and anti-democratic. But from a pure national interest perspective, one can argue that enabling and supporting the Germans to beat the Russians would have been the better choice. Break up and crush the Soviets, let Hitler have an Eastern European empire, and then let him struggle to control and contain it, while you rearm and eventually take him out. It’s possible that approach would have retained the Empire longer too.
    On the other hand, the war (and us being in it) led to all kids of amazing technological advances. If we'd avoided the war, would we have had the postwar boom? (And would retaining the Empire for longer have been a net positive? Even ignoring morality, all the evidence was that it was an economic drain.)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB's most over the top hatreds:

    @bigjohnowls and Starmer
    @Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
    @LostPassword and Pizza Express

    What about @Anabobazina and towns having their own identity distinct from their larger neighbour?
    He is already spoken for with Cash. You can't have multiple entries.
    You can if you're mutiply irrationally furious. But I find Anabobz's fixation on the recommendations of the Redcliffe Maud report more quixotic than his fixation on cash.

    Should point out that I do like him and also agree with him on far more than I disagree. I don't want this to sound like a pile-on.
    It's fine! I'm happy to debate this topic with you :smile:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,523

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB's most over the top hatreds:

    @bigjohnowls and Starmer
    @Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
    @LostPassword and Pizza Express

    What about @Anabobazina and towns having their own identity distinct from their larger neighbour?
    Anabob and cash?
    I beat you to it dozens of posts ago!!
    Yeah but it is so extreme it is worth repeating ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pagan2 said:

    It seems like of Farage wants to ape Trump he needs to read out Pizza Express menu.

    There's a lot of potential in talking about restaurants. He could segue into the Catherine Tate sketch: "They've put goat in a curry..."
    There used to be a jamaican take away near me and the goat curry was to die for
    Was the goat truly the g.o.a.t?
    Was it Tom Brady, or Lewis Hamilton?
    Sir Donald Bradman is the GOAT!
    Okay, I’ll volunteer you to explain cricket to the Americans!
    Given how ridiculously low the scores have been at New York so far, I think the priority is to explain to them how to prepare a decent cricket wicket.
    They don’t care. The whole venue is temporary and coming down next month, and the organisers have made little effort to sell the competition to Americans who aren’t the SE-Asia or Carribean expat diaspora.
    Indeed: the amount of coverage devoted to the Twenty20 World Cup here in the US us - checks - zero. I would be surprised if 5% of Americans knew it was even happening.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    kle4 said:

    Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 1 (no, nobody asked for this)

    • For a fair deal – I’ve seen worse slogans, but it does feel like one for a supermarket.
    • Clear Print/Plain text/ easy read versions available
    • No hyperlinking of chapters – loss of points right there.
    • Pictures of Leader – A mere 2
    • Simple presentation, pictures on different pages to text
    Foreword
    • County needs change. People taken for granted. Families ‘and pensioners’ struggling.
    • NHS in crisis, sewage in rivers.
    • Time for change, LDs the answer.
    • Neef to transform politics, fix health and care, economy, end sewage scandal
    • LDs local champions. Fair deal means people can afford a home (note – yeah right, with what building?), comfortable retirement, good school, healthcare.
    Our Fair Deal
    • Invest in renewable power and home insultation, bring down energy bills.
    • Right to see a GP within 7 days, extra doctors (note – how?).
    • Restore community policing, every burglar investigated – funded through ‘fair taxes’.
    • Hold big companies to account, ban companies dumping sewage into rivers
    • Skills training for net zero
    • Comprehensive agreement with Europe (note – meaning what?)
    • Reverse cuts to army and international development
    • PR for MPs and cllrs, cap donations for parties
    • Shift power to local areas (note – all parties always say this)
    The Economy
    • Support small business (note – who doesn’t?)
    • Tories botched Brexit and abandoned climate commitments
    • Will cut energy bills, invest in green infrastructure, fix relationship with Europe, manage finances ‘responsibly’, go after tax avoidance (note – again, everyone says this), taxes will be on big banks and windfalls on oil and gas
    • Northern Powerhouse, Western Gateway, Midlands Engine
    • Work with devolved administrations
    • Gigabit for all
    • OBR for all fiscal events
    • Raise tax free personal alliance
    • Increase digital services tax, close loopholes for capital gains, 4% tax on share buyback of FTSE 100 companies
    • National financial inclusion strategy (note – not clear what this means, but talks about banking hubs, remote areas for accessing cash, sharia compliant student finance)
    Which county specifically needs change? Has @Cookie been let loose with the manifesto, trying to abolish Greater Manchester?!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    BAN stuttering against RSA despite an easy target... game on.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    edited June 10
    In a final, desperate bid to cling on to power, the government has banned the publication of any more opinion polls until July 5th.

    I assume that's why there wasn't the usual 5pm Monday R&W.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB's most over the top hatreds:

    @bigjohnowls and Starmer
    @Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
    @LostPassword and Pizza Express

    What about @Anabobazina and towns having their own identity distinct from their larger neighbour?
    Anabob and cash?
    I beat you to it dozens of posts ago!!
    Yeah but it is so extreme it is worth repeating ;)
    @Sunil_Prasannan and ULEZ?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    In a final, desperate move to cling on to power, the government has banned the publication of any more opinion polls until July 5th.

    I assume that's why there wasn't the usual 5pm Monday R&W.

    Redfield couldn't find any voters. Snow in June etc
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB's most over the top hatreds:

    @bigjohnowls and Starmer
    @Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
    @LostPassword and Pizza Express

    What about @Anabobazina and towns having their own identity distinct from their larger neighbour?
    He is already spoken for with Cash. You can't have multiple entries.
    You can if you're mutiply irrationally furious. But I find Anabobz's fixation on the recommendations of the Redcliffe Maud report more quixotic than his fixation on cash.

    Should point out that I do like him and also agree with him on far more than I disagree. I don't want this to sound like a pile-on.
    It's fine! I'm happy to debate this topic with you :smile:
    I don't have any hatred for Rishi Sunak. He seems a very standard banker who dreams of one day being a big success stateside. I just wish being Prime Minister of the UK wasn't his chosen stepping stone, given that it affects everyone who lives here.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    BAN stuttering against RSA despite an easy target... game on.

    Nothing is easy on that ridiculous NY strip

    SA Marginal favourites according to my Bookie
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    BAN stuttering against RSA despite an easy target... game on.

    Nothing is easy on that ridiculous NY strip

    SA Marginal favourites according to my Bookie
    BAN 87% according to Cricinfo
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    In a final, desperate bid to cling on to power, the government has banned the publication of any more opinion polls until July 5th.

    I assume that's why there wasn't the usual 5pm Monday R&W.

    Fanciful to imagine it's being suppressed because the Faragegasm is very much on?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,320

    malcolmg said:

    algarkirk said:

    Pagan2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Controversial opinion: I don’t really understand why people pay so much for pizza as a foodstuff, and why chains have grown up around it.

    There are plenty of chain pizza restaurants where one can happily pay over the odds compared to a cheap and cheerful high street Italian restaurant, and get a product either comparable or possibly worse.

    I don’t get it.

    Yes, It's variations on cheese on toast really, and while it's OK it hardly justifies a million dedicated outlets. Not as if it's even fish and chips.

    In my utopian restaurant - where you turn up and eat the one thing you are given - pizza would never be the thing, but fish and chips would be it about every third Friday.
    On the subject of fish and chips.....what happened to rock salmon you can never find it these days
    IIRC there is now an interdict on calling whatever it is 'rock salmon' because it was something else. Huss? Monkfish? Dogfood? Perhaps they put flakes of it on pizzas next to the pineapple. Proper fish and chip shops alternate between offering haddock or cod, and cod or haddock.
    Must be Haddock
    Pollocks!
    I hake you
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I though "c****" would hgave been high in that word cloud. "T***" lets him off too lightly.

    On Farage, I don't know what others think but watching his performance in that tv debate it seemed a bit tired and flat. And I say this as someone who whilst disliking him has always seen his appeal.
    He's 60. That's not massively over-the-hill (Starmer is 61), but he's also not looked after himself that well. And even if the Reform plan goes well, he's five years from entering government. Have to say, I just don't see it working.
    Me neither. It just feels not quite right.

    "Nigel, Donald here, so when are you coming over, my man? Next week, right? Got you the best suite, it's all ready for you, know what I mean."

    "Afraid I can't. I have stuff on in Clacton."
    My guess is that Trump himself urged Farage to do his U-turn re: running for MP. As part of Putinist ramp up the dystopia efforts, and also to enhance NF's value as a warm-up act for post-Independence Day MAGA rallies.

    Though not sure Trump needs to warm up his crowds even more than they are being "warmed" due to record-breaking heat waves in USA.
    How are you seeing November ... a coin toss?
    Too early to tell. Like 1864 in that (and only that) respect.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    BAN stuttering against RSA despite an easy target... game on.

    Nothing is easy on that ridiculous NY strip

    SA Marginal favourites according to my Bookie
    Buzzers from RSA, Bangla gonna go for it
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    In a final, desperate bid to cling on to power, the government has banned the publication of any more opinion polls until July 5th.

    I assume that's why there wasn't the usual 5pm Monday R&W.

    I believed you for a moment. I said some very bad words.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Leon said:

    That’s it. I’ve done Kyiv in 2 days flat

    Back to sunny sweet bomby Odessa

    Something Putin hasn't managed in more than 2 years.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,515

    Sandpit said:

    Pagan2 said:

    It seems like of Farage wants to ape Trump he needs to read out Pizza Express menu.

    There's a lot of potential in talking about restaurants. He could segue into the Catherine Tate sketch: "They've put goat in a curry..."
    There used to be a jamaican take away near me and the goat curry was to die for
    Was the goat truly the g.o.a.t?
    Was it Tom Brady, or Lewis Hamilton?
    Sir Donald Bradman is the GOAT!
    No, Johnny Weissmuller was the GOAT!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    SKS should go for the Universe Boss move Thursday.
    Manifesto a single sheet reading

    You want five more years of THEM?
    Thought not.
    You'll get what you get. Come to terms with it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Redfield is in
    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.

    Joint-highest ever Reform UK %.

    🇬🇧 Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):

    Labour 45% (+3)
    Conservative 19% (–)
    Reform UK 17% (–)
    Lib Dem 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5/6-6/6
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Redfield poll is out

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.

    Joint-highest ever Reform UK %.

    🇬🇧 Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):

    Labour 45% (+3)
    Conservative 19% (–)
    Reform UK 17% (–)
    Lib Dem 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5/6-6/6

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800211448234467631
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    eek said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    PB's most over the top hatreds:

    @bigjohnowls and Starmer
    @Luckyguy1983 and Sunak
    @LostPassword and Pizza Express

    What about @Anabobazina and towns having their own identity distinct from their larger neighbour?
    Some do! You are referring to Gateshead I think – which not only does not have "an identity distinct from its larger neighbour" is in fact part and parcel of a single city with its larger neighbour, it being about 70 seconds walk across the river, and part of a shared CBD.
    You're triggering me again with that nonsense.

    Gateshead is a separate town to the city of Newcastle.

    It is in a different county. (Pre-1974 boundaries, natch.)

    It has a football club that actually wins trophies. And isn't owned by evil bastards.

    The Heed ain't the Toon.

    And I thought only Aussies used the term CBD?
    Common Business Districts are areas where the local businesses invest money in improving the district, either by extr maintenance, events, marketing...

    The quayside is 1 such zone although the only things on the Gateshead side is the Baltic, Sage / Glasshouse and from my last visit there a month ago a mobile coffeeshop and a pop-up Harrods Beauty...
    CBD = Central Business District.
    CBD = Cannabidiol. Fast taking over from the old school definition.
  • novanova Posts: 690

    Andy_JS said:

    ElectionMaps are forecasting this in Rotherham.

    Lab 55.9%
    Ref 32.3%
    LD 5.3%
    Grn 5.3%

    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast

    UK Polling Report thinks Corbyn will het less than 1% in Islington North

    If only they did Betting Exchanges
    Pretty sure that all the sites doing MRP/Seat predictions, said that they either couldn't take into account individual quirks in seats, or would update the models when polls could start asking about candidates (once lists were confirmed).

    You'll notice that seat even gets a boost from Labour being the "incumbent", while Rochdale has Galloway on a similar 1%, and Clacton is still clearly based on "generic Reform candidate" standing.

    Election Maps UK has Corbyn in the 20s. https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    SKS should go for the Universe Boss move Thursday.
    Manifesto a single sheet reading

    You want five more years of THEM?
    Thought not.
    You'll get what you get. Come to terms with it.

    Why did the prostitute hired to perform oral sex on the Universe Boss cause a hurricane?

    Because she was blowing a Gayle.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    This is completely weird but we’re on the subject of food and in 3 nights in Kyiv I’ve had


    1. Really excellent Thai Japanese fusion, the best Tom yam followed by sashimi and decent sushi
    2. Top notch Georgian takeaway - as good as most in Tbilisi, especially the kachapuri
    3. Highly satisfying Italian just now, burrata and Aperols then a smoky Ligurian fish soup with a nice cold glass of Gavi di Gavi


    You didn’t get THAT in the Blitz
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    SKS should go for the Universe Boss move Thursday.
    Manifesto a single sheet reading

    You want five more years of THEM?
    Thought not.
    You'll get what you get. Come to terms with it.

    That is indeed the pure essence of GE24.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    Sandpit said:

    Pagan2 said:

    It seems like of Farage wants to ape Trump he needs to read out Pizza Express menu.

    There's a lot of potential in talking about restaurants. He could segue into the Catherine Tate sketch: "They've put goat in a curry..."
    There used to be a jamaican take away near me and the goat curry was to die for
    Was the goat truly the g.o.a.t?
    Was it Tom Brady, or Lewis Hamilton?
    Sir Donald Bradman is the GOAT!
    No, Johnny Weissmuller was the GOAT!
    Maureen O Sullivan was the GOAT nanny goat
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    Redfield is in
    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.

    Joint-highest ever Reform UK %.

    🇬🇧 Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):

    Labour 45% (+3)
    Conservative 19% (–)
    Reform UK 17% (–)
    Lib Dem 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5/6-6/6

    No crossover.

    We wait for Yougov.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    kle4 said:

    Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 1 (no, nobody asked for this)

    • For a fair deal – I’ve seen worse slogans, but it does feel like one for a supermarket.
    • Clear Print/Plain text/ easy read versions available
    • No hyperlinking of chapters – loss of points right there.
    • Pictures of Leader – A mere 2
    • Simple presentation, pictures on different pages to text
    Foreword
    • County needs change. People taken for granted. Families ‘and pensioners’ struggling.
    • NHS in crisis, sewage in rivers.
    • Time for change, LDs the answer.
    • Neef to transform politics, fix health and care, economy, end sewage scandal
    • LDs local champions. Fair deal means people can afford a home (note – yeah right, with what building?), comfortable retirement, good school, healthcare.
    Our Fair Deal
    • Invest in renewable power and home insultation, bring down energy bills.
    • Right to see a GP within 7 days, extra doctors (note – how?).
    • Restore community policing, every burglar investigated – funded through ‘fair taxes’.
    • Hold big companies to account, ban companies dumping sewage into rivers
    • Skills training for net zero
    • Comprehensive agreement with Europe (note – meaning what?)
    • Reverse cuts to army and international development
    • PR for MPs and cllrs, cap donations for parties
    • Shift power to local areas (note – all parties always say this)
    The Economy
    • Support small business (note – who doesn’t?)
    • Tories botched Brexit and abandoned climate commitments
    • Will cut energy bills, invest in green infrastructure, fix relationship with Europe, manage finances ‘responsibly’, go after tax avoidance (note – again, everyone says this), taxes will be on big banks and windfalls on oil and gas
    • Northern Powerhouse, Western Gateway, Midlands Engine
    • Work with devolved administrations
    • Gigabit for all
    • OBR for all fiscal events
    • Raise tax free personal alliance
    • Increase digital services tax, close loopholes for capital gains, 4% tax on share buyback of FTSE 100 companies
    • National financial inclusion strategy (note – not clear what this means, but talks about banking hubs, remote areas for accessing cash, sharia compliant student finance)
    Which county specifically needs change? Has @Cookie been let loose with the manifesto, trying to abolish Greater Manchester?!
    Somerset - this is the LibDem manifesto for Somerset. Their manifestos for other counties can also be downloaded.

    (Incidentally, https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast appear to be showing no seats at all for the Tories in Somerset.)
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580

    Redfield is in
    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.

    Joint-highest ever Reform UK %.

    🇬🇧 Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):

    Labour 45% (+3)
    Conservative 19% (–)
    Reform UK 17% (–)
    Lib Dem 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5/6-6/6

    My reform gambit looking better but could really do with a crossover. I’m planning to sell soon.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    Leon said:

    That’s it. I’ve done Kyiv in 2 days flat

    Back to sunny sweet bomby Odessa

    I would still recommend Chernivtsi, if you can
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,084
    edited June 10
    Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 3
    Health
    • Universal ‘high-quality’ healthcare is essential.
    • NHS used to be envy of the world, now it is in crisis – Tories in England, SNP in Scotland, Labour in Wales (note – in which case maybe it is just shit?)
    • Everyone should have care they need (note – no-one else believes this I guess?)
    • Right to see GP in 7 days, 8000 more GPs (note – how?)
    • NHS dentist for urgent and emergency care
    • Mental health hubs for young people in every community (note – every constituency? What’s a community in his context)
    • Spend 5 more years in good health (note – oddly specific)
    • GP pledge mentioned about 4 times already
    • Those over 70 get named GP – (note – boomers don’t like not having this, but others are ok?)
    • Remove bureaucracy (note – so simple!)
    • Universal GP booking system
    • Supervised toothbrush training for nurseries
    • No vat on children’s toothbrushes
    • Regular mental health check ups at key points in peoples lives (note – by whom? What is a key point?)
    • Prescriptions for chronic conditions free on NHS (Note – I didn’t know this was not already the case)
    • Cut suicide rates
    • Independent Mental Health Commissioner
    • Boost cancer survival – 100% start treatment within 62 days (note – very specific!)
    • New prostate cancer screening
    • New Health Creation Unit in Cabinet Office
    • Halt use of vapes in kids, but allow for adults – (note – oddly confused)
    • Tobacco levy
    • More pay for NHS staff (note – implied)
    • Retain more staff (note – genuius)
    • Flexible working, exempting NHS from work visa system
    • Legal right to a second opinion
    • Invest on social and community care
    • Allow complaints after 5 years
    • Innovative digital tools, all IT systems to talk to each other
    • Scotland’s drug deaths public health emergency
    Care
    • Free personal care like Scotland in 2002
    • Royal college of care workers, higher minimum wage (note – very deserved, but affordable?)
    • Cross party commission on social care funding (note – pretty sure this was stated in many manifestos in 2017 too)
    • Consistent social care funding, increase transparency, National care agency
    • Career ladder for social care staff, establish commissioner for older people
    • Make caring a protected characteristic under equality act (Note – this is risking diluting the Act by adding more and more to it)

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    Bloody hell, the 1970s called and want their production values back. The pan shot of him firming up his several chins outside some grommet factory is particularly…well, whatever is the opposite of fine.

    https://x.com/jrc1921/status/1800166749515702545?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The belly with the half-tucked-in shirt makes it look like a spoof. Marvellous!
    Half tucked in shirt is very in with da yoof to be fair.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,084

    kle4 said:

    Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 1 (no, nobody asked for this)

    • For a fair deal – I’ve seen worse slogans, but it does feel like one for a supermarket.
    • Clear Print/Plain text/ easy read versions available
    • No hyperlinking of chapters – loss of points right there.
    • Pictures of Leader – A mere 2
    • Simple presentation, pictures on different pages to text
    Foreword
    • County needs change. People taken for granted. Families ‘and pensioners’ struggling.
    • NHS in crisis, sewage in rivers.
    • Time for change, LDs the answer.
    • Neef to transform politics, fix health and care, economy, end sewage scandal
    • LDs local champions. Fair deal means people can afford a home (note – yeah right, with what building?), comfortable retirement, good school, healthcare.
    Our Fair Deal
    • Invest in renewable power and home insultation, bring down energy bills.
    • Right to see a GP within 7 days, extra doctors (note – how?).
    • Restore community policing, every burglar investigated – funded through ‘fair taxes’.
    • Hold big companies to account, ban companies dumping sewage into rivers
    • Skills training for net zero
    • Comprehensive agreement with Europe (note – meaning what?)
    • Reverse cuts to army and international development
    • PR for MPs and cllrs, cap donations for parties
    • Shift power to local areas (note – all parties always say this)
    The Economy
    • Support small business (note – who doesn’t?)
    • Tories botched Brexit and abandoned climate commitments
    • Will cut energy bills, invest in green infrastructure, fix relationship with Europe, manage finances ‘responsibly’, go after tax avoidance (note – again, everyone says this), taxes will be on big banks and windfalls on oil and gas
    • Northern Powerhouse, Western Gateway, Midlands Engine
    • Work with devolved administrations
    • Gigabit for all
    • OBR for all fiscal events
    • Raise tax free personal alliance
    • Increase digital services tax, close loopholes for capital gains, 4% tax on share buyback of FTSE 100 companies
    • National financial inclusion strategy (note – not clear what this means, but talks about banking hubs, remote areas for accessing cash, sharia compliant student finance)
    Which county specifically needs change? Has Cookie been let loose with the manifesto, trying to abolish Greater Manchester?!
    That might have been my own wishes shining through. Bring back Avon! (don't actually do this)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    YouGov promising something new and 'super exciting' coming shortly. Some sort of new projection based thing perhaps?
  • Looks to me like we’re just seeing noise. Labour remains 20 points ahead with little sign of any change.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Leon said:

    This is completely weird but we’re on the subject of food and in 3 nights in Kyiv I’ve had


    1. Really excellent Thai Japanese fusion, the best Tom yam followed by sashimi and decent sushi
    2. Top notch Georgian takeaway - as good as most in Tbilisi, especially the kachapuri
    3. Highly satisfying Italian just now, burrata and Aperols then a smoky Ligurian fish soup with a nice cold glass of Gavi di Gavi


    You didn’t get THAT in the Blitz

    The toast, however, was outstanding. :)
  • However this is really bad for Sunak

    Lowest net approval rating we have EVER recorded for Rishi Sunak as either PM or Chancellor.

    Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (7-10 June):

    Disapprove: 53% (+6)
    Approve: 26% (-4)
    Net: -27% (-10)


    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1800212581069816014

    Now well on his way to Corbyn 2019
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    So I don’t know if Ukrainian especially Kyivan food is

    1. Peculiarly brilliant
    2. Somehow brilliant because of the war (trying harder?? Only the best survives?)
    3. I accidentally keep eating in amazing places cause everything is so cheap that when I spend normal money I am actually getting the best in the country

    I am tempted by the third BUT I had the best borscht of my life in Transnistria and it cost £2.50 - literally - so I wonder if it is something to do with ingredients. There is no frozen/UPF food chain so everything is generally incredibly fresh and real
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    YouGov promising something new and 'super exciting' coming shortly. Some sort of new projection based thing perhaps?

    CROSSOVER is the new KABOOM
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Redfield is in
    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.

    Joint-highest ever Reform UK %.

    🇬🇧 Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):

    Labour 45% (+3)
    Conservative 19% (–)
    Reform UK 17% (–)
    Lib Dem 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5/6-6/6

    No crossover.

    We wait for Yougov.
    R&W is a 10,000 pax mega-poll*. Fieldwork 7-10 June.

    (*not sure that makes much difference, in terms of MOE?)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Baxter fun time.
    Cons 24.
    Lab majority of 416.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited June 10

    Sandpit said:

    Pagan2 said:

    It seems like of Farage wants to ape Trump he needs to read out Pizza Express menu.

    There's a lot of potential in talking about restaurants. He could segue into the Catherine Tate sketch: "They've put goat in a curry..."
    There used to be a jamaican take away near me and the goat curry was to die for
    Was the goat truly the g.o.a.t?
    Was it Tom Brady, or Lewis Hamilton?
    Sir Donald Bradman is the GOAT!
    No, Johnny Weissmuller was the GOAT!
    IF you insist on a single GOAT for all time, rather than multiple GOATs for various fields of endeavor, then my nominee is Duke Kahanamoku.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_Kahanamoku

    Bonus for PBers: DK was named after his father, who in turn was named Duke because he was born during visit of (then) Duke of Edinburgh (son of Queen Victoria) to Hawai'i.

    Another bonus: Duke Kahanamoku was elected many times (sometimes as a Democrat, other times as a Republican) as Sheriff of Oahu County.

    Correction - DK was Sheriff of Honolulu County, technically City and County of Honolulu, which covers all of Oahu.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    YouGov promising something new and 'super exciting' coming shortly. Some sort of new projection based thing perhaps?


    The Seventh Circle of Hell is Reserved for the Poll Rampers
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    That’s it. I’ve done Kyiv in 2 days flat

    Back to sunny sweet bomby Odessa

    I would still recommend Chernivtsi, if you can
    I spent a week there last year, indeed my stalker wrote about it

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-unbearable-strangeness-of-the-ukraine-war/
  • Tories will cut NI again in the manifesto.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    However this is really bad for Sunak

    Lowest net approval rating we have EVER recorded for Rishi Sunak as either PM or Chancellor.

    Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (7-10 June):

    Disapprove: 53% (+6)
    Approve: 26% (-4)
    Net: -27% (-10)


    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1800212581069816014

    Now well on his way to Corbyn 2019

    Sophy and Sam on Sky are going to be orgiastic at 7pm.
  • PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 580
    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Pro_Rata said:

    Italy EU Results:

    FdI 28.8 (+2.8 from GE, +1.9 above polling)
    PD 24.1 (+5.0, +3.0)
    M5S 10.0 (-5.5, -5.5)
    FI 9.6 (+1.5, +1.1)
    Lega 9.0 (+0.2, +0.1)
    AVS 6.7 (+3.1, +2.3)
    SUE 3.8 , Az 3.3 (-3.5, -1.2)
    others 4.7 (-3.7, -1.9)

    Polling has been pretty static in the last 2 years, with poll averages not changing more v than 2-3% for any party, and just a little realignment between the liberal centrists, now presented as SUE and Azione.

    This gives a slight bump to some, Meloni's
    FdI hitting the top of their MoE range, but centre-left PD hitting their off-on M5S allies and getting the best overperformance of the night.

    However, little rebalance between the main left and right blocs getting 40.7% (if united) and 47.5% respectively.

    No sign of Meloni's coalition losing support.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    eek said:

    Redfield poll is out

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.

    Joint-highest ever Reform UK %.

    🇬🇧 Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):

    Labour 45% (+3)
    Conservative 19% (–)
    Reform UK 17% (–)
    Lib Dem 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5/6-6/6

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800211448234467631

    Another poll which returns LDs as the Official Opposition when put into Electoral Calculus.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    eek said:

    Redfield poll is out

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.

    Joint-highest ever Reform UK %.

    🇬🇧 Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):

    Labour 45% (+3)
    Conservative 19% (–)
    Reform UK 17% (–)
    Lib Dem 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5/6-6/6

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800211448234467631

    RefUK could be ahead of the Tories in England on these figures.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    edited June 10
    Andrew Neil interviews Kwasi Kwarteng, who comes across as quite sensible compared with the current Tory leaders:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fyp18i6Rf1o

    Why, oh why, was he never given a senior position of responsibility in government?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Redfield continuing their trend of Tories being 10% behind with over 65s. That's 2 months and more they've been finding what most other pollsters are the opposite on (except Techne). Are they on to something?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    YouGov promising something new and 'super exciting' coming shortly. Some sort of new projection based thing perhaps?

    CROSSOVER is the new KABOOM
    Yes, it could be that - Yougov have some of the highest Reform figures.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Leon said:

    That’s it. I’ve done Kyiv in 2 days flat...

    You've beaten Putin then.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Redfield is in
    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.

    Joint-highest ever Reform UK %.

    🇬🇧 Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):

    Labour 45% (+3)
    Conservative 19% (–)
    Reform UK 17% (–)
    Lib Dem 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5/6-6/6

    No crossover.

    We wait for Yougov.
    R&W is a 10,000 pax mega-poll*. Fieldwork 7-10 June.

    (*not sure that makes much difference, in terms of MOE?)
    Their last 2 Monday polls were also 10k sample. I don't think it alters accuracy much
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Tories will cut NI again in the manifesto.

    It’s like the world’s shittest “here’s what you could have won” segment on the world’s shittest game show.
  • Largest EVER lead for Starmer over Sunak.

    Highest % to pick Starmer.

    Joint-lowest % to pick Sunak.

    Which of the following do Britons think would be the better PM for the UK? (7-10 June)

    Keir Starmer 47% (+3)
    Rishi Sunak 26% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5-6 June
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813

    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

    Not sure a situation where one party has over 80% of the seats in our parliament is particularly healthy, but hey, FPTP!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

    This is clearly NOT going to be the outcome.

    No way will the Tories cling on to 19% given the way their campaign is going.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    eek said:

    Redfield poll is out

    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.

    Joint-highest ever Reform UK %.

    🇬🇧 Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):

    Labour 45% (+3)
    Conservative 19% (–)
    Reform UK 17% (–)
    Lib Dem 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5/6-6/6

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800211448234467631

    Another poll which returns LDs as the Official Opposition when put into Electoral Calculus.
    Given the cabinet retirements and amount of vulnerable Cons standing, there is a fair chance the electorate wont know more than a couple of the shadow cabinets regardless of whoever finishes second. I suspect naming even three LD or Reform candidates is beyond the majority of us. I can get to three but wouldnt get past five.
  • Regardless of who you support, who do you think is running the worst general election campaign so far?

    Conservative Party: 45% (+11 from 4 June)
    Labour Party: 9% (-1)
    Lib Dems: 3% (-2)
    Reform UK: 4% (=)
    SNP: 2% (-1)
    Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
    Green Party: 2% (=)
    None of them: 9% (+1)
    Don’t know: 25% (-7)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited June 10
    Leon said:

    So I don’t know if Ukrainian especially Kyivan food is

    1. Peculiarly brilliant
    2. Somehow brilliant because of the war (trying harder?? Only the best survives?)
    3. I accidentally keep eating in amazing places cause everything is so cheap that when I spend normal money I am actually getting the best in the country

    I am tempted by the third BUT I had the best borscht of my life in Transnistria and it cost £2.50 - literally - so I wonder if it is something to do with ingredients. There is no frozen/UPF food chain so everything is generally incredibly fresh and real

    It’s a combination of all three, plus good timing. Foods are all seasonal there now, with very little in the way of imports, so you’re getting what you’re getting.

    Oh, and they appreciate every penny you’re spending.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Chris said:

    Andrew Neil interviews Kwasi Kwarteng, who comes across as quite sensible compared with the current Tory leaders:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fyp18i6Rf1o

    Why, oh why, was he never given a senior position of responsibility in government?

    Sorry - I posted that before getting to the end. He did get a bit loony later on. My mistake.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    Regardless of who you support, who do you think is running the worst general election campaign so far?

    Conservative Party: 45% (+11 from 4 June)
    Labour Party: 9% (-1)
    Lib Dems: 3% (-2)
    Reform UK: 4% (=)
    SNP: 2% (-1)
    Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
    Green Party: 2% (=)
    None of them: 9% (+1)
    Don’t know: 25% (-7)

    None of them should surely be all of them? Or do 9% think they are all doing well?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Alito tells Thomas, hold my beer.

    Justice Alito Caught on Tape Discussing How Battle for America ‘Can’t Be Compromised’
    In a new, secret recording, the Supreme Court justice says he “agrees” that the U.S. should return to a place of godliness
    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/samuel-alito-supreme-court-justice-recording-tape-battle-1235036470/
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

    This is clearly NOT going to be the outcome.

    No way will the Tories cling on to 19% given the way their campaign is going.
    This is clearly NOT going to be the outcome.

    SNP are much too high at 13 seats.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    So I don’t know if Ukrainian especially Kyivan food is

    1. Peculiarly brilliant
    2. Somehow brilliant because of the war (trying harder?? Only the best survives?)
    3. I accidentally keep eating in amazing places cause everything is so cheap that when I spend normal money I am actually getting the best in the country

    I am tempted by the third BUT I had the best borscht of my life in Transnistria and it cost £2.50 - literally - so I wonder if it is something to do with ingredients. There is no frozen/UPF food chain so everything is generally incredibly fresh and real

    It’s a combination of all three, plus good timing. Foods are all seasonal there now, with very little in the way of imports, so you’re getting what you’re getting.

    Oh, and they appreciate every penny you’re spending.
    Thank you, I am glad I nailed it three times over! Yes that all makes sense, and yes I am more than happy to splash the cash, they are all obviously grateful for the business, and God bless ‘em

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,662

    Regardless of who you support, who do you think is running the worst general election campaign so far?

    Conservative Party: 45% (+11 from 4 June)
    Labour Party: 9% (-1)
    Lib Dems: 3% (-2)
    Reform UK: 4% (=)
    SNP: 2% (-1)
    Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
    Green Party: 2% (=)
    None of them: 9% (+1)
    Don’t know: 25% (-7)

    So finally the Tories top a poll! Wonder what you get if you Baxter this!
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    Regardless of who you support, who do you think is running the worst general election campaign so far?

    Conservative Party: 45% (+11 from 4 June)
    Labour Party: 9% (-1)
    Lib Dems: 3% (-2)
    Reform UK: 4% (=)
    SNP: 2% (-1)
    Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
    Green Party: 2% (=)
    None of them: 9% (+1)
    Don’t know: 25% (-7)

    I'm amazed that the Labour Party are only on 9%. That tends to indicate that people are actually answering the question asked. Which I didn't think really happened on these secondaries.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748

    However this is really bad for Sunak

    Lowest net approval rating we have EVER recorded for Rishi Sunak as either PM or Chancellor.

    Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (7-10 June):

    Disapprove: 53% (+6)
    Approve: 26% (-4)
    Net: -27% (-10)


    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1800212581069816014

    Now well on his way to Corbyn 2019

    To be honest it seems funny that more than a quarter of people still approve of him.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 480

    Regardless of who you support, who do you think is running the worst general election campaign so far?

    Conservative Party: 45% (+11 from 4 June)
    Labour Party: 9% (-1)
    Lib Dems: 3% (-2)
    Reform UK: 4% (=)
    SNP: 2% (-1)
    Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
    Green Party: 2% (=)
    None of them: 9% (+1)
    Don’t know: 25% (-7)

    Labour's digital/social media team are on fire.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377

    Redfield continuing their trend of Tories being 10% behind with over 65s. That's 2 months and more they've been finding what most other pollsters are the opposite on (except Techne). Are they on to something?

    Yes. Pensioners for Labour is an increasingly vociferous and influential group.

    Our only concern is that some of our older members may not make it to July 4th.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

    Not sure a situation where one party has over 80% of the seats in our parliament is particularly healthy, but hey, FPTP!
    An outcome as crazy as that would surely be the beginning of the end for FPTP.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited June 10
    Reform and Con level on 18% in Wales...

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1799365974878998692

    Albeit: it's only a subsample!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Reform and Con level on 18% in Wales...

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1799365974878998692

    I think we've had that before, although can't remember whether it was a sub-sample that someone posted.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

    Not sure a situation where one party has over 80% of the seats in our parliament is particularly healthy, but hey, FPTP!
    I simply don't believe a Labour party with 533 MPs wouldn't split into a large centre left party, and a smaller Socialist party that becomes the official opposition before the end of the Parliament.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,084
    The LD manifesto seem to have loads of policies about setting up new or reforming bodies to ensure 'fair' pay rises. Seems like it would simpler to just leave the current bodies in place and just mandate 2-5% be added to whatever they recommend, since who is to say the new bodies won't be seen as unfair by unions in future if they offer less than they want?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    kinabalu said:

    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

    Not sure a situation where one party has over 80% of the seats in our parliament is particularly healthy, but hey, FPTP!
    An outcome as crazy as that would surely be the beginning of the end for FPTP.
    One would hope. Then again turkeys would have to vote for their own PR Christmas.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Andy_JS said:

    Reform and Con level on 18% in Wales...

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1799365974878998692

    I think we've had that before, although can't remember whether it was a sub-sample that someone posted.
    They were even in an actual WELSH POLL last week. I think @Benpointer is playing with fire posting a Welsh subsample...!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited June 10
    Not surprised by this.

    https://x.com/DegenRolf/status/1799446106083869142

    "@DegenRolf

    "Drivers of larger, heavier vehicles tend to drive more recklessly." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11002-024-09733-7 A clear trend of shifting towards larger, heavier vehicles on roads fuels what has been described as an “arms race.”"
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    kle4 said:

    It is taking me much longer to get through the LD manifesto than I expected. Pretty dense.

    Just two question: Do the LDs have the same cunning plan as the others to bring down debt levels by borrowing a few hundred billion more and not paying any of it back?

    Are they committed to building hundreds of thousands of affordable homes in LD constituencies?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,084

    However this is really bad for Sunak

    Lowest net approval rating we have EVER recorded for Rishi Sunak as either PM or Chancellor.

    Rishi Sunak Approval Rating (7-10 June):

    Disapprove: 53% (+6)
    Approve: 26% (-4)
    Net: -27% (-10)


    https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1800212581069816014

    Now well on his way to Corbyn 2019


    Unfortunately for him it does seem to be the case the more people see of him the less they like him. Hence the party going backwards not forwards in the campaign.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Redfield is in
    Labour leads by 26%.

    Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.

    Joint-highest ever Reform UK %.

    🇬🇧 Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):

    Labour 45% (+3)
    Conservative 19% (–)
    Reform UK 17% (–)
    Lib Dem 10% (-2)
    Green 5% (-1)
    SNP 3% (–)
    Other 1% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5/6-6/6

    Mr Redfield?

    Yes, Mr Wilton?

    Shall we ramp our poll?

    Ramping is rather not our style, Mr Wilton. Somewhat gauche. I suggest we delay it by an hour, let the tongues wag themselves, as it were.

    Very well, Mr Redfield. Very well.
    Interesting to me that you chose both to be ‘Mr’ but then I looked on their ‘About’ page and all 4 Directors are indeed men.
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/about-us/

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    edited June 10

    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

    This is clearly NOT going to be the outcome.

    No way will the Tories cling on to 19% given the way their campaign is going.

    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

    The PR-obsessed Liberals get a 2x FPP bonus on that. Funny old world!!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    YouGov promising something new and 'super exciting' coming shortly. Some sort of new projection based thing perhaps?

    Tory lead?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform and Con level on 18% in Wales...

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1799365974878998692

    I think we've had that before, although can't remember whether it was a sub-sample that someone posted.
    They were even in an actual WELSH POLL last week. I think @Benpointer is playing with fire posting a Welsh subsample...!
    Damn - forgot that. Is there no dispensation for a subsample of a 10k survey? I mean, the subsample must've been >1k shirley?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

    This is clearly NOT going to be the outcome.

    No way will the Tories cling on to 19% given the way their campaign is going.

    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

    The PR-obsessed Liberals get a 4x FPP bonus on that. Funny old world!!
    Payback Time!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324

    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

    This is clearly NOT going to be the outcome.

    No way will the Tories cling on to 19% given the way their campaign is going.

    Redfield into Electoral Calculus

    LAB: 533
    LD: 55
    CON: 24
    REF: 1
    SNP: 13
    GRN: 2
    PC: 4

    And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.

    The PR-obsessed Liberals get a 4x FPP bonus on that. Funny old world!!
    Laugh? Ed Davey's face would fall in half.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Largest EVER lead for Starmer over Sunak.

    Highest % to pick Starmer.

    Joint-lowest % to pick Sunak.

    Which of the following do Britons think would be the better PM for the UK? (7-10 June)

    Keir Starmer 47% (+3)
    Rishi Sunak 26% (-1)

    Changes +/- 5-6 June

    I’m biased obvs, especially as I’m falling for him, but I’ve heard people saying that they have warmed to him.

    It’s the election campaign so he gets fair coverage and by and large it’s not causing Labour problems.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,084
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    It is taking me much longer to get through the LD manifesto than I expected. Pretty dense.

    Just two question: Do the LDs have the same cunning plan as the others to bring down debt levels by borrowing a few hundred billion more and not paying any of it back?

    Are they committed to building hundreds of thousands of affordable homes in LD constituencies?
    It will all be done by taxes on bankers and oil and gas.

    Not gotten to housing, but I doubt it.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874

    pigeon said:

    Re: restaurants (FPT, can't quote, too fiddly on a primitive phone):

    "Middle class" chains: I find Pizza Express very reliable, Nando's variable and overrated.

    Pub food: is pot luck, but certainly not uniformly bad. Two examples that I frequent semi-regularly spring to mind, one good, one very good.

    As big a factor in the quality of mid-range restaurants as that of the food itself is that of the service, especially how bloody slow some of them are. They fail to employ enough people to wait tables and/or make the stuff in the first place, so even if it's very good it takes so long to arrive that it ruins the experience. I've given up on one local restaurant entirely because of this; I recently went into another, sat at table for an age and then walked out again when it became obvious that the one woman they had taking orders was going to take about two hours just to get to us. Hopeless.

    I much prefer Pizza Express to Nandos but the kids love Nandos for some unfathomable reason. I could quite happily eat every meal at Pizza Express for the rest of my life.
    I would genuinely prefer to go to Pizza Hut than Pizza Express, though as you are in London there are loads of independent pizza places that are superior to both all over the place, but if in provincial England and not fortunate to have that option it would be Pizza Hut every time.
    Really? I would put Pizza Hut in the same category as Dominos. We are lucky to have several independent pizza places nearby. But I actually rate Pizza Express pizzas. I worked in a pizza restaurant for four years when I was younger and would sometimes have pizza for lunch and dinner depending on the shift. Luckily I love pizza.
    I think the pizzas at Pizza Express are the worst pizzas I have ever eaten.
    You've obviously never been subjected to Dominos
    No, I would rate Dominos marginally above Pizza Hut, both of them >>> Pizza Express.
    If sugar and salt rather than authenticity and flavour are your thing...
    There is nothing authentic about the pizzas at Pizza Express.
    Just been to Pizza Hut.
    Nice, but vastly overpriced. Just paid £61 (no tip) in Liverpool One for three pizzas and three soft drinks.
    We paid £56 on Saturday night my wife and I for two courses at a nice little Thai in Crosby.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Andy_JS said:

    Reform and Con level on 18% in Wales...

    https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1799365974878998692

    I think we've had that before, although can't remember whether it was a sub-sample that someone posted.
    They were even in an actual WELSH POLL last week. I think @Benpointer is playing with fire posting a Welsh subsample...!
    Damn - forgot that. Is there no dispensation for a subsample of a 10k survey? I mean, the subsample must've been >1k shirley?
    Wales doesn't have 10% of the UK's population, it's got just under 5%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,084
    edited June 10
    Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 4
    Education
    • Mental health professional in every school
    • Funding above inflation every year, invest in new buildings
    • Tutoring guarantee
    • Extra funding for disadvantaged
    • Maintenance grants
    • Lifelong skills grants for all adults 5k now, 10k in future
    • Specialist teacher for every secondary subject, more teacher training, fair payrise body, more extra curricular activities, more funding for EHCPs, national body for SEND (note – how the heck will all this be afforded?)
    • When funding allows more free education for 2 year olds (note – interesting what they feel can be promised now vs what can only be promised when funding allows in future)
    • Statutory duty of care at higher education, statutory mental health charter
    • Return to Erasmus
    Families, Children and Young People
    • Free schools meals to children in poverty, then to everyone.
    • Cabinet Minister for Children and Young People (Note – without a department this is just pandering)
    • Parental pay for self employed
    • Incorporate un convention on rights of child into law
    • Independent body on safety online
    • Paid neonatal care
    • Legal aid simplified for family court
    Pensions and Safety net
    • Remove two child limit and benefit gap.
    • End ‘deep poverty’ in a decade (note – never heard this term before, and if it was achieved a new one would be created)
    • Triple lock
    • Pandering to WASPI women
    • Universal credit payment in 5 days not 5 weeks
    • Scrap bedroom tax
    • Taskforce on independent living
    • Pension fund investments consistent with paris agreements
    Crime and Policing
    • Restore ‘proper’ community policing, statutory guarantee all burglaries investigated (note – in which case why not statutorily guarantee other crime be investigated?)
    • Invest in criminal justice
    • Online crime agency
    • Scrapping pCCs and go back to police boards (note – very good policy, current system is pointless)
    • Working with Europol and EuroJust (note – who they?)
    • Name and shame banks with poor record on preventing fraud
    • Civil remedy for modern slavery survivors
    • Crack down on puppy and kitten smuggling
    • Recruit more prison officers (note – how?)
    • Women’s justice board
    • More training and education in prison



  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Regardless of who you support, who do you think is running the worst general election campaign so far?

    Conservative Party: 45% (+11 from 4 June)
    Labour Party: 9% (-1)
    Lib Dems: 3% (-2)
    Reform UK: 4% (=)
    SNP: 2% (-1)
    Plaid Cymru: 1% (=)
    Green Party: 2% (=)
    None of them: 9% (+1)
    Don’t know: 25% (-7)

    Labour's digital/social media team are on fire.
    They are. Was discussing earlier with someone and we both agreed how scarily switched on they are.

    They’re hungry for power. Ravenous for it.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    It is taking me much longer to get through the LD manifesto than I expected. Pretty dense.

    Just two question: Do the LDs have the same cunning plan as the others to bring down debt levels by borrowing a few hundred billion more and not paying any of it back?

    Are they committed to building hundreds of thousands of affordable homes in LD constituencies?
    It will all be done by taxes on bankers and oil and gas.

    Not gotten to housing, but I doubt it.
    Are they introducing PR?
    If so, they've got my vote........ for what that's worth (not much).
This discussion has been closed.