Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 1 (no, nobody asked for this)
For a fair deal – I’ve seen worse slogans, but it does feel like one for a supermarket.
Clear Print/Plain text/ easy read versions available
No hyperlinking of chapters – loss of points right there.
Pictures of Leader – A mere 2
Simple presentation, pictures on different pages to text
Foreword
County needs change. People taken for granted. Families ‘and pensioners’ struggling.
NHS in crisis, sewage in rivers.
Time for change, LDs the answer.
Neef to transform politics, fix health and care, economy, end sewage scandal
LDs local champions. Fair deal means people can afford a home (note – yeah right, with what building?), comfortable retirement, good school, healthcare.
Our Fair Deal
Invest in renewable power and home insultation, bring down energy bills.
Right to see a GP within 7 days, extra doctors (note – how?).
Restore community policing, every burglar investigated – funded through ‘fair taxes’.
Hold big companies to account, ban companies dumping sewage into rivers
Skills training for net zero
Comprehensive agreement with Europe (note – meaning what?)
Reverse cuts to army and international development
PR for MPs and cllrs, cap donations for parties
Shift power to local areas (note – all parties always say this)
The Economy
Support small business (note – who doesn’t?)
Tories botched Brexit and abandoned climate commitments
Will cut energy bills, invest in green infrastructure, fix relationship with Europe, manage finances ‘responsibly’, go after tax avoidance (note – again, everyone says this), taxes will be on big banks and windfalls on oil and gas
Northern Powerhouse, Western Gateway, Midlands Engine
Work with devolved administrations
Gigabit for all
OBR for all fiscal events
Raise tax free personal alliance
Increase digital services tax, close loopholes for capital gains, 4% tax on share buyback of FTSE 100 companies
National financial inclusion strategy (note – not clear what this means, but talks about banking hubs, remote areas for accessing cash, sharia compliant student finance)
Which county specifically needs change? Has @Cookie been let loose with the manifesto, trying to abolish Greater Manchester?!
Somerset - this is the LibDem manifesto for Somerset. Their manifestos for other counties can also be downloaded.
And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Not sure a situation where one party has over 80% of the seats in our parliament is particularly healthy, but hey, FPTP!
I simply don't believe a Labour party with 533 MPs wouldn't split into a large centre left party, and a smaller Socialist party that becomes the official opposition before the end of the Parliament.
Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 1 (no, nobody asked for this)
For a fair deal – I’ve seen worse slogans, but it does feel like one for a supermarket.
Clear Print/Plain text/ easy read versions available
No hyperlinking of chapters – loss of points right there.
Pictures of Leader – A mere 2
Simple presentation, pictures on different pages to text
Foreword
County needs change. People taken for granted. Families ‘and pensioners’ struggling.
NHS in crisis, sewage in rivers.
Time for change, LDs the answer.
Neef to transform politics, fix health and care, economy, end sewage scandal
LDs local champions. Fair deal means people can afford a home (note – yeah right, with what building?), comfortable retirement, good school, healthcare.
Our Fair Deal
Invest in renewable power and home insultation, bring down energy bills.
Right to see a GP within 7 days, extra doctors (note – how?).
Restore community policing, every burglar investigated – funded through ‘fair taxes’.
Hold big companies to account, ban companies dumping sewage into rivers
Skills training for net zero
Comprehensive agreement with Europe (note – meaning what?)
Reverse cuts to army and international development
PR for MPs and cllrs, cap donations for parties
Shift power to local areas (note – all parties always say this)
The Economy
Support small business (note – who doesn’t?)
Tories botched Brexit and abandoned climate commitments
Will cut energy bills, invest in green infrastructure, fix relationship with Europe, manage finances ‘responsibly’, go after tax avoidance (note – again, everyone says this), taxes will be on big banks and windfalls on oil and gas
Northern Powerhouse, Western Gateway, Midlands Engine
Work with devolved administrations
Gigabit for all
OBR for all fiscal events
Raise tax free personal alliance
Increase digital services tax, close loopholes for capital gains, 4% tax on share buyback of FTSE 100 companies
National financial inclusion strategy (note – not clear what this means, but talks about banking hubs, remote areas for accessing cash, sharia compliant student finance)
Which county specifically needs change? Has @Cookie been let loose with the manifesto, trying to abolish Greater Manchester?!
Somerset - this is the LibDem manifesto for Somerset. Their manifestos for other counties can also be downloaded.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Funding above inflation every year, invest in new buildings
Tutoring guarantee
Extra funding for disadvantaged
Maintenance grants
Lifelong skills grants for all adults 5k now, 10k in future
Specialist teacher for every secondary subject, more teacher training, fair payrise body, more extra curricular activities, more funding for EHCPs, national body for SEND (note – how the heck will all this be afforded?)
When funding allows more free education for 2 year olds (note – interesting what they feel can be promised now vs what can only be promised when funding allows in future)
Statutory duty of care at higher education, statutory mental health charter
Return to Erasmus
Families, Children and Young People
Free schools meals to children in poverty, then to everyone.
Cabinet Minister for Children and Young People (Note – without a department this is just pandering)
Parental pay for self employed
Incorporate un convention on rights of child into law
Independent body on safety online
Paid neonatal care
Legal aid simplified for family court
Pensions and Safety net
Remove two child limit and benefit gap.
End ‘deep poverty’ in a decade (note – never heard this term before, and if it was achieved a new one would be created)
Triple lock
Pandering to WASPI women
Universal credit payment in 5 days not 5 weeks
Scrap bedroom tax
Taskforce on independent living
Pension fund investments consistent with paris agreements
Crime and Policing
Restore ‘proper’ community policing, statutory guarantee all burglaries investigated (note – in which case why not statutorily guarantee other crime be investigated?)
Invest in criminal justice
Online crime agency
Scrapping pCCs and go back to police boards (note – very good policy, current system is pointless)
Working with Europol and EuroJust (note – who they?)
Name and shame banks with poor record on preventing fraud
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Yes, a 2001 outcome would be dreadful. A mere 412 seats and a majority of 167 would be gross underachievement. But we could live with it.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)
The weather's compensating for the heatwave of 2022.
it’s really not. I believe the southern UK climate has hit some major turning point and is now closer to Iceland than the Loire, this has been going on for 18 months solid, endless rain, greyness and cool
Thank fuck I have escaped 90% of it, but I do feel for my fam and friends back home
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Not sure a situation where one party has over 80% of the seats in our parliament is particularly healthy, but hey, FPTP!
I simply don't believe a Labour party with 533 MPs wouldn't split into a large centre left party, and a smaller Socialist party that becomes the official opposition before the end of the Parliament.
Don't forget that loyalty is the secret weapon of the Labour Party.
At least, I'm sure it was the secret weapon of one or the other, and I really don't think it can be the Tories.
Labour 45% (+3) Conservative 19% (–) Reform UK 17% (–) Lib Dem 10% (-2) Green 5% (-1) SNP 3% (–) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 5/6-6/6
No crossover.
We wait for Yougov.
R&W is a 10,000 pax mega-poll*. Fieldwork 7-10 June.
(*not sure that makes much difference, in terms of MOE?)
Their last 2 Monday polls were also 10k sample. I don't think it alters accuracy much
According to the scientists, it does. 1100 respondents is MOE of 3 each way. 10K it comes down to 2.
With caveat (I think) that the sample or sub-sample is properly representative of key demographics of the jurisdiction or whatever that's being sampled.
Which is somewhat (or rather even) more problematic for subs than for the whole hog.
My own view is that, studying sub-samples is AOK, but be aware of all of the above. Meaning that need to be looking for bigger differentials and shifts with subs, than (even) with full samples.
And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)
IF this happens
A. It will be hilariously brilliant and
B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Yes, a 2001 outcome would be dreadful. A mere 412 seats and a majority of 167 would be gross underachievement. But we could live with it.
I am going to continue ignoring all this. If Labour and LD together can get to approx 340 seats and run the country not less well than recently that will do me. (Lab + LD is about 588 seats according to Baxter on the Redfield poll, so there is a bit of margin for error.)
It is taking me much longer to get through the LD manifesto than I expected. Pretty dense.
Just two question: Do the LDs have the same cunning plan as the others to bring down debt levels by borrowing a few hundred billion more and not paying any of it back?
Are they committed to building hundreds of thousands of affordable homes in LD constituencies?
It will all be done by taxes on bankers and oil and gas.
Not gotten to housing, but I doubt it.
Are they introducing PR? If so, they've got my vote........ for what that's worth (not much).
Oh. They're not....? I can't find it in the manifesto. Can anyone else confirm? No pledge to change the voting system.
And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)
And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)
IF this happens
A. It will be hilariously brilliant and
B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice
Close but no cigar for fans of crossover. Crunching the England figures, including the DKs but based on likelihood to vote, R&W has Labour on 42%, Conservatives on 18%, Reform on 16%, DKs on 9.5%, LDs on 9.5% and Greens on 4%
Taking out the Don't Knows, Labour has 46%, Conservatives 20%, Reform 17%, LDs 11% and Greens 5%.
Last time the Conservatives got 47%, Labour 32% and the LDs 12% so that's a swing of 20.5% from Conservative to Labour and 13% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
It is taking me much longer to get through the LD manifesto than I expected. Pretty dense.
Just two question: Do the LDs have the same cunning plan as the others to bring down debt levels by borrowing a few hundred billion more and not paying any of it back?
Are they committed to building hundreds of thousands of affordable homes in LD constituencies?
It will all be done by taxes on bankers and oil and gas.
Not gotten to housing, but I doubt it.
Are they introducing PR? If so, they've got my vote........ for what that's worth (not much).
Oh. They're not....? I can't find it in the manifesto. Can anyone else confirm? No pledge to change the voting system.
There is certainly a pledge to change the voting system;
"We will:
Ensure no politician can take you for granted, by introducing proportional representation by the Single Transferable Vote for electing MPs, and local councillors in England."
The weather's compensating for the heatwave of 2022.
Thank fuck I have escaped 90% of it, but I do feel for my fam and friends back home
Cool. You could leave pb.com to the General Election then. Just a thought.
Reporting from just north of the lake district, it's been hailing hard this afternoon, so a pretty normal June after a warmish spell in May/June last year. Heating has been on. Hot water bottle last night.
The year has been ridiculously warm. This is called a cold spell, now give us a break.
You’re such a narcissist. You must hate it that you’re not the focus of everyone’s attention.
it’s been warm AT NIGHT and under very overcast conditions
Now go check the records for rain and sun. We have had the rainiest 18 months in history and SE England, whereof I speak, has been enduring seriously unusual dullness for 18 months or more
The LD manifesto seem to have loads of policies about setting up new or reforming bodies to ensure 'fair' pay rises. Seems like it would simpler to just leave the current bodies in place and just mandate 2-5% be added to whatever they recommend, since who is to say the new bodies won't be seen as unfair by unions in future if they offer less than they want?
The word fair should be banned....tell us what you consider fair with actual numbers
"Drivers of larger, heavier vehicles tend to drive more recklessly." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11002-024-09733-7 A clear trend of shifting towards larger, heavier vehicles on roads fuels what has been described as an “arms race.”"
Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 5 Natural Environment
Nature crisis. Sewage scandal.
Water companies to be public benefit companies, replace Ofwat
‘Double nature’ by 2050
60 million trees a year
Clean air act
Sewage tax on water company profits
Completing coastal path
Human right to healthy environment
Join European environment agency
New developments have biodiversity net gain (note – people object even when this is the case now)
‘ambition’ of ending plastic waste exports by 2030 (note – so not planning to do it then)
Restore peatlands, enhance temperate rainforest,
Food and Farming
Against ultra processed foods. Farmers under pressure.
National food strategy
Restore woodland, peatland, and waterways
Public money for public goods programmes
Renegotiate Australia and New Zealand
Ensure independent advice to farmers on new environmental farm payments scheme (Note – funded by government, so independent?)
Animal welfare bill
Housing
380k homes per year, including 150k social homes, garden cities, community led development
Ban no fault evictions, default 3 year tenancies, right to end right to buy
Scrap vagrancy act
Expand neighbourhood planning (note – this process is slow, expensive, and needs constant revision, how will expanding it help?)
10 new garden cities
Properly fund planning departments (note – so…councils won’t fund their own planning departments, or will be subsidized? It says set their own fees, but by how much?)
Encourage use of rural exception sites (note – locals hate these)
Encourage development of brownfield (ntoe – oh FFS, everyone already tries this)
This section seems like a load of nonsense. Communities and local government
Multi year settlements for local government (note – very useful, but will it happen?)
More control over second homes and short term lets
Powers to tackle climate emergency (note – fluff)
End top down reorganisation of councils and imposition of elected mayors (note – with you on the second, but the first is necessary to save money as unitaries only way for local government to survive)
‘Decentralise decision making from whitehall and westminster’ (note – a load of old wank – every manifesto says this for all parties, it never happens in more than piecemeal fashion)
Invest in leisure centres and swimming pools (note – isn’t this a local government function, not central?)
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
In these circumstances, turnout will be down from 2016-19. That’s a given.
Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 5 Natural Environment
Nature crisis. Sewage scandal.
Water companies to be public benefit companies, replace Ofwat
‘Double nature’ by 2050
60 million trees a year
Clean air act
Sewage tax on water company profits
Completing coastal path
Human right to healthy environment
Join European environment agency
New developments have biodiversity net gain (note – people object even when this is the case now)
‘ambition’ of ending plastic waste exports by 2030 (note – so not planning to do it then)
Restore peatlands, enhance temperate rainforest,
Food and Farming
Against ultra processed foods. Farmers under pressure.
National food strategy
Restore woodland, peatland, and waterways
Public money for public goods programmes
Renegotiate Australia and New Zealand
Ensure independent advice to farmers on new environmental farm payments scheme (Note – funded by government, so independent?)
Animal welfare bill
Housing
380k homes per year, including 150k social homes, garden cities, community led development
Ban no fault evictions, default 3 year tenancies, right to end right to buy
Scrap vagrancy act
Expand neighbourhood planning (note – this process is slow, expensive, and needs constant revision, how will expanding it help?)
10 new garden cities
Properly fund planning departments (note – so…councils won’t fund their own planning departments, or will be subsidized? It says set their own fees, but by how much?)
Encourage use of rural exception sites (note – locals hate these)
Encourage development of brownfield (ntoe – oh FFS, everyone already tries this)
This section seems like a load of nonsense. Communities and local government
Multi year settlements for local government (note – very useful, but will it happen?)
More control over second homes and short term lets
Powers to tackle climate emergency (note – fluff)
End top down reorganisation of councils and imposition of elected mayors (note – with you on the second, but the first is necessary to save money as unitaries only way for local government to survive)
‘Decentralise decision making from whitehall and westminster’ (note – a load of old wank – every manifesto says this for all parties, it never happens in more than piecemeal fashion)
Invest in leisure centres and swimming pools (note – isn’t this a local government function, not central?)
when I see lists that long it tells me nothing is a priority.
Past LD manifestos have sometimes been inconsistent about whether they were pitching to become the main opposition or what they would do in a theoretical LD government. This one appears to be consistent at least, albeit the chances of getting a LD government are statistically insignificant.
"Drivers of larger, heavier vehicles tend to drive more recklessly." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11002-024-09733-7 A clear trend of shifting towards larger, heavier vehicles on roads fuels what has been described as an “arms race.”"
The year has been ridiculously warm. This is called a cold spell, now give us a break.
You’re such a narcissist. You must hate it that you’re not the focus of everyone’s attention.
it’s been warm AT NIGHT and under very overcast conditions
Now go check the records for rain and sun. We have had the rainiest 18 months in history and SE England, whereof I speak, has been enduring seriously unusual dullness for 18 months or more
Is this climate change? I think it might be
It’s the transition from El Niño to La Niña shifting atmospheric angular momentum and the position of high and low pressures, combined with the warm Atlantic and general randomness and the Tory government. Im expecting an improvement in time for the election.
Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 5 Natural Environment
Nature crisis. Sewage scandal.
Water companies to be public benefit companies, replace Ofwat
‘Double nature’ by 2050
60 million trees a year
Clean air act
Sewage tax on water company profits
Completing coastal path
Human right to healthy environment
Join European environment agency
New developments have biodiversity net gain (note – people object even when this is the case now)
‘ambition’ of ending plastic waste exports by 2030 (note – so not planning to do it then)
Restore peatlands, enhance temperate rainforest,
Food and Farming
Against ultra processed foods. Farmers under pressure.
National food strategy
Restore woodland, peatland, and waterways
Public money for public goods programmes
Renegotiate Australia and New Zealand
Ensure independent advice to farmers on new environmental farm payments scheme (Note – funded by government, so independent?)
Animal welfare bill
Housing
380k homes per year, including 150k social homes, garden cities, community led development
Ban no fault evictions, default 3 year tenancies, right to end right to buy
Scrap vagrancy act
Expand neighbourhood planning (note – this process is slow, expensive, and needs constant revision, how will expanding it help?)
10 new garden cities
Properly fund planning departments (note – so…councils won’t fund their own planning departments, or will be subsidized? It says set their own fees, but by how much?)
Encourage use of rural exception sites (note – locals hate these)
Encourage development of brownfield (ntoe – oh FFS, everyone already tries this)
This section seems like a load of nonsense. Communities and local government
Multi year settlements for local government (note – very useful, but will it happen?)
More control over second homes and short term lets
Powers to tackle climate emergency (note – fluff)
End top down reorganisation of councils and imposition of elected mayors (note – with you on the second, but the first is necessary to save money as unitaries only way for local government to survive)
‘Decentralise decision making from whitehall and westminster’ (note – a load of old wank – every manifesto says this for all parties, it never happens in more than piecemeal fashion)
Invest in leisure centres and swimming pools (note – isn’t this a local government function, not central?)
when I see lists that long it tells me nothing is a priority.
The manifesto is over long, with the standard mixture of vague fluff and oddly detailed sections, presumably as whoever was writing a particular section was able to persuade the higher ups to include their personal preferences.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.
Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).
And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)
IF this happens
A. It will be hilariously brilliant and
B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice
You need to start getting suitably miserable about the coming hegemony of a man (SKS) who embodies everything you hate. I did it from Dec 19 to July 22. I didn't shirk it, pretending I was all cool about it. I turned to face the strain. Take a leaf.
I've read a lot of manifestos. One thing I am always wary of is when new bodies and posts are proposed. It is a good way of appearing to do something when either not doing much (if you don't really add any new funding or organisation), or promising way to much (if you don't add enough), or disguising a massive new cost (by not noting how much it would cost to make the body/group useful).
Liberal Democrat Manifesto 2024 Part 5 Natural Environment
Nature crisis. Sewage scandal.
Water companies to be public benefit companies, replace Ofwat
‘Double nature’ by 2050
60 million trees a year
Clean air act
Sewage tax on water company profits
Completing coastal path
Human right to healthy environment
Join European environment agency
New developments have biodiversity net gain (note – people object even when this is the case now)
‘ambition’ of ending plastic waste exports by 2030 (note – so not planning to do it then)
Restore peatlands, enhance temperate rainforest,
Food and Farming
Against ultra processed foods. Farmers under pressure.
National food strategy
Restore woodland, peatland, and waterways
Public money for public goods programmes
Renegotiate Australia and New Zealand
Ensure independent advice to farmers on new environmental farm payments scheme (Note – funded by government, so independent?)
Animal welfare bill
Housing
380k homes per year, including 150k social homes, garden cities, community led development
Ban no fault evictions, default 3 year tenancies, right to end right to buy
Scrap vagrancy act
Expand neighbourhood planning (note – this process is slow, expensive, and needs constant revision, how will expanding it help?)
10 new garden cities
Properly fund planning departments (note – so…councils won’t fund their own planning departments, or will be subsidized? It says set their own fees, but by how much?)
Encourage use of rural exception sites (note – locals hate these)
Encourage development of brownfield (ntoe – oh FFS, everyone already tries this)
This section seems like a load of nonsense. Communities and local government
Multi year settlements for local government (note – very useful, but will it happen?)
More control over second homes and short term lets
Powers to tackle climate emergency (note – fluff)
End top down reorganisation of councils and imposition of elected mayors (note – with you on the second, but the first is necessary to save money as unitaries only way for local government to survive)
‘Decentralise decision making from whitehall and westminster’ (note – a load of old wank – every manifesto says this for all parties, it never happens in more than piecemeal fashion)
Invest in leisure centres and swimming pools (note – isn’t this a local government function, not central?)
when I see lists that long it tells me nothing is a priority.
The manifesto is over long, with the standard mixture of vague fluff and oddly detailed sections, presumably as whoever was writing a particular section was able to persuade the higher ups to include their personal preferences.
yep, but most of that stuff should be in a local government leaflet not a national manifesto.
"Drivers of larger, heavier vehicles tend to drive more recklessly." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11002-024-09733-7 A clear trend of shifting towards larger, heavier vehicles on roads fuels what has been described as an “arms race.”"
Tax cars by weight.
Absolutely agree, especially given the fourth power relationship between relative axle weight and mass. I.E: My little 1000kg Miata does sixteen times less damage to the road than a 2000kg vanity panzer.
I also detest SUVs. Triumph of marketing over substance. There's nothing a lard-arsed X5 can do that a 5-series can't, with the slight exception of a higher hip point (that can be resolved with good seat design).
Survation should have their first phone poll out weds or Thursday to see if it diverges from the onliners
If it does, and the Tories look closer, that really will set the cat amongst the pigeons, betting market wise.
It would cause a frisson of panic for sure. And if maintained and verified versus result would result in a complete review of polling. So I'm guessing it will be in the ballpark
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
Well, yes, similar in East Ham but what do you expect?
Stephen Timms is frantically hanging on to his 33,000 majority, his vote might collapse to 70% and all his activists have gone to....Chingford & Woodford Green, Havering, Hornchurch & Upminster? To be fair, we have two Council by-elections in Newham but neither is in East Ham.
I suspect Labour are fighting 200-250 constituencies properly and most of those will be prospective gains from the Conservatives. The Conservatives are probably defending a core 200 seats - the LDs are probably working 50, the Greens 5-10, Reform 3-5. If you aren't one of the "lucky" ones living in a marginal seat (though that will be redefined after July 4th), you won't get much electioneering.
"Drivers of larger, heavier vehicles tend to drive more recklessly." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11002-024-09733-7 A clear trend of shifting towards larger, heavier vehicles on roads fuels what has been described as an “arms race.”"
Tax cars by weight.
Absolutely agree, especially given the fourth power relationship between relative axle weight and mass. I.E: My little 1000kg Miata does sixteen times less damage to the road than a 2000kg vanity panzer.
I also detest SUVs. Triumph of marketing over substance. There's nothing a lard-arsed X5 can do that a 5-series can't, with the slight exception of a higher hip point (that can be resolved with good seat design).
And the move to pseudo SUVs (partly to get the batteries in) results in cars that aren’t as pretty. Saloons and small hatchbacks are dying.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.
Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).
I'm currently staying in an exceptionally safe Tory seat. So far I've seen one Lib Dem and one Labour poster. Not exactly screaming "enthusiasm" to be honest.
And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)
IF this happens
A. It will be hilariously brilliant and
B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice
You need to start getting suitably miserable about the coming hegemony of a man (SKS) who embodies everything you hate. I did it from Dec 19 to July 22. I didn't shirk it, pretending I was all cool about it. I turned to face the strain. Take a leaf.
But now you'll be crapping yourself that Farage is the grand fromage.
And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)
IF this happens
A. It will be hilariously brilliant and
B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice
You need to start getting suitably miserable about the coming hegemony of a man (SKS) who embodies everything you hate. I did it from Dec 19 to July 22. I didn't shirk it, pretending I was all cool about it. I turned to face the strain. Take a leaf.
nooo, I’m now quite detached from UK politics on an emotional level. I’ve basically emigrated
It’s now more intellectual and also familial. I have many people back home in Blighty, I want what’s best for them
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
Well, yes, similar in East Ham but what do you expect?
Stephen Timms is frantically hanging on to his 33,000 majority, his vote might collapse to 70% and all his activists have gone to....Chingford & Woodford Green, Havering, Hornchurch & Upminster? To be fair, we have two Council by-elections in Newham but neither is in East Ham.
I suspect Labour are fighting 200-250 constituencies properly and most of those will be prospective gains from the Conservatives. The Conservatives are probably defending a core 200 seats - the LDs are probably working 50, the Greens 5-10, Reform 3-5. If you aren't one of the "lucky" ones living in a marginal seat (though that will be redefined after July 4th), you won't get much electioneering.
But a few Tory targets from the SNP as consolation prizes?
I have been confused as well btw. I live in one of the recent by election losses and have not see a thing. In years gone by you’d have said “yeah but it’s an easily reclaimed Tory seat” but I’m not sure about that on this polling and with people seeing the alternative in action.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.
Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).
I'm currently staying in an exceptionally safe Tory seat. So far I've seen one Lib Dem and one Labour poster. Not exactly screaming "enthusiasm" to be honest.
I cam report 1 Labour poster and 4 for the pro-Gaza independent in Leicester South.
"Drivers of larger, heavier vehicles tend to drive more recklessly." https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11002-024-09733-7 A clear trend of shifting towards larger, heavier vehicles on roads fuels what has been described as an “arms race.”"
Tax cars by weight.
Absolutely agree, especially given the fourth power relationship between relative axle weight and mass. I.E: My little 1000kg Miata does sixteen times less damage to the road than a 2000kg vanity panzer.
I also detest SUVs. Triumph of marketing over substance. There's nothing a lard-arsed X5 can do that a 5-series can't, with the slight exception of a higher hip point (that can be resolved with good seat design).
And the move to pseudo SUVs (partly to get the batteries in) results in cars that aren’t as pretty. Saloons and small hatchbacks are dying.
Interestingly, that trend is pretty much a US/Euro-market phenomenon. If you look at a lot of the EVs being released in China, they're saloons because of the lower drag coefficient. Lower height = better aero so you need less batteries and your batteries get you further. Mazda are making an EV version of the 6 and it looks excellent. But it's china only because Euro/US markets have all fallen for this "Must be tall" nonsense.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
Well, yes, similar in East Ham but what do you expect?
Stephen Timms is frantically hanging on to his 33,000 majority, his vote might collapse to 70% and all his activists have gone to....Chingford & Woodford Green, Havering, Hornchurch & Upminster? To be fair, we have two Council by-elections in Newham but neither is in East Ham.
I suspect Labour are fighting 200-250 constituencies properly and most of those will be prospective gains from the Conservatives. The Conservatives are probably defending a core 200 seats - the LDs are probably working 50, the Greens 5-10, Reform 3-5. If you aren't one of the "lucky" ones living in a marginal seat (though that will be redefined after July 4th), you won't get much electioneering.
But a few Tory targets from the SNP as consolation prizes?
I have been confused as well btw. I live in one of the recent by election losses and have not see a thing. In years gone by you’d have said “yeah but it’s an easily reclaimed Tory seat” but I’m not sure about that on this polling and with people seeing the alternative in action.
Norwich South still nothing. Sure an easy Clive Lewis hold but the Greens should be working this seat like buggery for second place and to lay more groundwork for taking the council. Its very odd.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.
Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).
I'm currently staying in an exceptionally safe Tory seat. So far I've seen one Lib Dem and one Labour poster. Not exactly screaming "enthusiasm" to be honest.
To be fair I think the Conservative campaign is focused on social media aka boomer Facebook. Trad leafleting and canvassing probably a waste of time for them.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.
Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).
I'm currently staying in an exceptionally safe Tory seat. So far I've seen one Lib Dem and one Labour poster. Not exactly screaming "enthusiasm" to be honest.
To be fair I think the Conservative campaign is focused on social media aka boomer Facebook. Trad leafleting and canvassing probably a waste of time for them.
Sorry, I don't mean ad posters, I mean those front-garden signs with "Winning Here" and "Save the NHS" and "Shoot immigrants on sight" or whatever REFUK have on theirs.
The weather's compensating for the heatwave of 2022.
it’s really not. I believe the southern UK climate has hit some major turning point and is now closer to Iceland than the Loire, this has been going on for 18 months solid, endless rain, greyness and cool
Thank fuck I have escaped 90% of it, but I do feel for my fam and friends back home
Last month seemed a bit better, but was still wetter than average in London:
11 of the last 12 months were wetter than average, and 16 of the last 18.
Too early to say it's caused by a shift in climate, though - you'd expect there to be around an 11% chance of this happening purely through natural variation.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.
Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).
I'm currently staying in an exceptionally safe Tory seat. So far I've seen one Lib Dem and one Labour poster. Not exactly screaming "enthusiasm" to be honest.
To be fair I think the Conservative campaign is focused on social media aka boomer Facebook. Trad leafleting and canvassing probably a waste of time for them.
It’s not really. They’re frozen at the moment across FB, TikTok, and Insta.
And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)
IF this happens
A. It will be hilariously brilliant and
B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice
You need to start getting suitably miserable about the coming hegemony of a man (SKS) who embodies everything you hate. I did it from Dec 19 to July 22. I didn't shirk it, pretending I was all cool about it. I turned to face the strain. Take a leaf.
But now you'll be crapping yourself that Farage is the grand fromage.
remember you put him there.
My sense is the Reform thing doesn't quite happen. Not with Nige anyway. The search for our strongman saviour goes on. Meanwhile SKS gets about his lawful business of running the country.
And that’s without any tactical voting fractionals put in.
Hum. On Baxter's reckoning, South Holland has gone on those figures. Steve Barclay may just cling on, only by a whisker. I think the only other one left anyone has actually heard of is Gavin Williamson who more or less becomes leader of the rump, but not LOTO as the LDs are the HMLO. The Tories come ahead of the SNP. I look forward to hearing this last point emphasised from whoever is Tory spokesman on election night. (Who gets that gig by the way? Tricky one.)
IF this happens
A. It will be hilariously brilliant and
B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice
You need to start getting suitably miserable about the coming hegemony of a man (SKS) who embodies everything you hate. I did it from Dec 19 to July 22. I didn't shirk it, pretending I was all cool about it. I turned to face the strain. Take a leaf.
nooo, I’m now quite detached from UK politics on an emotional level. I’ve basically emigrated
It’s now more intellectual and also familial. I have many people back home in Blighty, I want what’s best for them
But the visceral stuff I have left behind
Post election analysis from Germany says young voters have ditched the Greens and headed off rightwards. Given 16 and 17 year olds could vote for the first time Starmer's wheeze may nor be as clever as he thinks.
If I were in Labour's team I wouldn't be particularly happy with polls indicating a 300 seat majority, because the party always has a problem getting out the vote on election day when it looks like they're going to win easily. 2001 is a good example.
Desperate stuff Andy
I'm not sure it is. Labour do have a problem with 'we've won, why bother'. In fact, I think all parties have that problem.
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Well I feel you’re completely missing the mood then.
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
Oh no, I think Labour will win; but there are lazy people out there who will think, on the day, why bother.
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing. Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else. Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else. Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
I'm in Cumbria, a key battleground as they say. All seats currently Tory (except Farron); all expected to go Labour (except Farron); massive boundary changes. Everyone should be fighting tooth and nail, as with special luck and a wind behind them the Tories might just keep a seat.
Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).
I'm currently staying in an exceptionally safe Tory seat. So far I've seen one Lib Dem and one Labour poster. Not exactly screaming "enthusiasm" to be honest.
Driving through Kirkby Lonsdale - a fair number of Tim Farron Lib Dem posters..
Nick Robinson: "Having your own home has got harder under a Conservative government, hasn't it?" Rishi Sunak: "It has got harder, and I want to make sure that it's easier."
Comments
https://gwlad.org/en/
Anchorage:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5879400
London:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
Or would you prefer we all keep quiet about it?
2017 showed it in reverse. "Corbyn's lost and lost heavily - I can safely vote Labour because he's lost so much."
Thank fuck I have escaped 90% of it, but I do feel for my fam and friends back home
20 OFF 17
People are seething angry with the tories this time and they’re sure as heck going to vote them out.
At least, I'm sure it was the secret weapon of one or the other, and I really don't think it can be the Tories.
Which is somewhat (or rather even) more problematic for subs than for the whole hog.
My own view is that, studying sub-samples is AOK, but be aware of all of the above. Meaning that need to be looking for bigger differentials and shifts with subs, than (even) with full samples.
Or something like that.
A. It will be hilariously brilliant and
B. Farage will of course take over, the Tories will have no choice
Of course, all I can report from is Bootle.... and guess what? You wouldn't know there was an election on. Not a poster, not a leaflet, nothing.
Labour have won, so go campaign somewhere else.
Everyone else has lost, so go campaign somewhere else.
Our LD candidate is campaigning in Southport. They want to get second place back.
The year has been ridiculously warm. This is called a cold spell, now give us a break.
You’re such a narcissist. You must hate it that you’re not the focus of everyone’s attention.
Can anyone else confirm? No pledge to change the voting system.
"Never knowingly correct"
Close but no cigar for fans of crossover. Crunching the England figures, including the DKs but based on likelihood to vote, R&W has Labour on 42%, Conservatives on 18%, Reform on 16%, DKs on 9.5%, LDs on 9.5% and Greens on 4%
Taking out the Don't Knows, Labour has 46%, Conservatives 20%, Reform 17%, LDs 11% and Greens 5%.
Last time the Conservatives got 47%, Labour 32% and the LDs 12% so that's a swing of 20.5% from Conservative to Labour and 13% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
Relatedly I can announce that my older daughter has got a job counting votes in the GE in Finchley! She is very excited. Fifteen quid an hour, bless
"We will:
Ensure no politician can take you for granted, by introducing proportional representation by the Single Transferable Vote for electing MPs, and local councillors in England."
Now go check the records for rain and sun. We have had the rainiest 18 months in history and SE England, whereof I speak, has been enduring seriously unusual dullness for 18 months or more
Is this climate change? I think it might be
Natural Environment
- Nature crisis. Sewage scandal.
- Water companies to be public benefit companies, replace Ofwat
- ‘Double nature’ by 2050
- 60 million trees a year
- Clean air act
- Sewage tax on water company profits
- Completing coastal path
- Human right to healthy environment
- Join European environment agency
- New developments have biodiversity net gain (note – people object even when this is the case now)
- ‘ambition’ of ending plastic waste exports by 2030 (note – so not planning to do it then)
- Restore peatlands, enhance temperate rainforest,
Food and Farming- Against ultra processed foods. Farmers under pressure.
- National food strategy
- Restore woodland, peatland, and waterways
- Public money for public goods programmes
- Renegotiate Australia and New Zealand
- Ensure independent advice to farmers on new environmental farm payments scheme (Note – funded by government, so independent?)
- Animal welfare bill
HousingCommunities and local government
Election bribes paid for by essentially making life much harder for those on sickness or disability benefit.
Unqualified people making life changing decisions based on targets . Just so Sunak can wank on about tax cuts !
This is 2024 so I need to add the disclaimer that that is obvious joke and I would never seek to subvert democracy.
Cleverley pulled out of an intvw last minute this pm. I think a manifesto rewrite/write in is underway
Here, Not a poster. Not a leaflet. Nothing. (Though I spotted a Labour group elsewhere in the county one afternoon).
I also detest SUVs. Triumph of marketing over substance. There's nothing a lard-arsed X5 can do that a 5-series can't, with the slight exception of a higher hip point (that can be resolved with good seat design).
So I'm guessing it will be in the ballpark
Stephen Timms is frantically hanging on to his 33,000 majority, his vote might collapse to 70% and all his activists have gone to....Chingford & Woodford Green, Havering, Hornchurch & Upminster? To be fair, we have two Council by-elections in Newham but neither is in East Ham.
I suspect Labour are fighting 200-250 constituencies properly and most of those will be prospective gains from the Conservatives. The Conservatives are probably defending a core 200 seats - the LDs are probably working 50, the Greens 5-10, Reform 3-5. If you aren't one of the "lucky" ones living in a marginal seat (though that will be redefined after July 4th), you won't get much electioneering.
remember you put him there.
It’s now more intellectual and also familial. I have many people back home in Blighty, I want what’s best for them
But the visceral stuff I have left behind
I have been confused as well btw. I live in one of the recent by election losses and have not see a thing. In years gone by you’d have said “yeah but it’s an easily reclaimed Tory seat” but I’m not sure about that on this polling and with people seeing the alternative in action.
Declaration time:
2019 -> 5:05am
2017 -> 4:47am
2015 -> 5:13am
2010 -> 6:56am
2005 -> 3:51am.
2001 -> 2:14am.
11 of the last 12 months were wetter than average, and 16 of the last 18.
Too early to say it's caused by a shift in climate, though - you'd expect there to be around an 11% chance of this happening purely through natural variation.
Far outstripped by Labour.
Reform also running a savvy online campaign.
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-attracts-largest-following-across-social-media-platforms-13148421
Couldn’t resist myself at 66/1…
Rishi Sunak: "It has got harder, and I want to make sure that it's easier."
Ye gods.