Starmer talking about home ownership and building homes, and need to change planning laws. Good news to me, but is it actually popular?
He's hit the nail on what needs to be done.
I've said for years planning restrictions and NIMBYs are the number one block in this country. If he follows through on that, then he's won my vote with that - but what's the detail because that's a big if.
Starmer talking about home ownership and building homes, and need to change planning laws. Good news to me, but is it actually popular?
He's hit the nail on what needs to be done.
I've said for years planning restrictions and NIMBYs are the number one block in this country. If he follows through on that, then he's won my vote with that - but what's the detail because that's a big if.
The blocker isn’t planning (at the moment) but planning permissions stacking up.
The ultimate cause of that is local monopolies for house builders - who then throttle building to keep prices up.
But ultimately this suits the politicians (“we granted 7 billions planning applications!”) the NIMBYs and the politicians again (“we played the system for you and only 3 houses were built”)
How can we improve the market to allow many small building companies to build 5-20 houses on new plots? And would it actually help?
Abolish planning replacing it with zoning and standards instead, and yes, dramatically.
Starmer talking about home ownership and building homes, and need to change planning laws. Good news to me, but is it actually popular?
He's hit the nail on what needs to be done.
I've said for years planning restrictions and NIMBYs are the number one block in this country. If he follows through on that, then he's won my vote with that - but what's the detail because that's a big if.
Starmer talking about home ownership and building homes, and need to change planning laws. Good news to me, but is it actually popular?
He's hit the nail on what needs to be done.
I've said for years planning restrictions and NIMBYs are the number one block in this country. If he follows through on that, then he's won my vote with that - but what's the detail because that's a big if.
The blocker isn’t planning (at the moment) but planning permissions stacking up.
The ultimate cause of that is local monopolies for house builders - who then throttle building to keep prices up.
But ultimately this suits the politicians (“we granted 7 billions planning applications!”) the NIMBYs and the politicians again (“we played the system for you and only 3 houses were built”)
Planning is a blocker.
Councils in London reject phone masts because they apparently aren't in keeping with the landscape. What landscape?
I doubt that was the real reason, but where committees want to say no they have to use a real planning reason, and that is one of the few ones they can use which is usually broadly defined and easier to make a judgement call about. Which is a reasonable intention, but it means it does get used more than it should, you see very generic areas suddenly infused with some kind of supposed character.
Whereas you will often find outraged locals wanting to object on highways grounds, and local politicians most angry about that, but they often cannot use it because local officers have said it was fine and the standard requires a lot more evidence to go against that if it is to hold up at appeal.
Labour shouldn't panic just yet, but their campaign has been somewhat faltering. First there was the needless distraction over Diane Abbott; now we have Sir Keir limping into second place behind Rishi when he should have crushed him like an ant beneath his brogue. I mean, it's not as if there isn't plenty of weaponry to hand to blow the Tories out of the water.
Woah, woah, woah!
I won’t have that!
Starmer is a knight of the realm. No way he was wearing brogues with a suit, especially a dark one.
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Starmer talking about home ownership and building homes, and need to change planning laws. Good news to me, but is it actually popular?
He's hit the nail on what needs to be done.
I've said for years planning restrictions and NIMBYs are the number one block in this country. If he follows through on that, then he's won my vote with that - but what's the detail because that's a big if.
Starmer talking about home ownership and building homes, and need to change planning laws. Good news to me, but is it actually popular?
He's hit the nail on what needs to be done.
I've said for years planning restrictions and NIMBYs are the number one block in this country. If he follows through on that, then he's won my vote with that - but what's the detail because that's a big if.
The blocker isn’t planning (at the moment) but planning permissions stacking up.
The ultimate cause of that is local monopolies for house builders - who then throttle building to keep prices up.
But ultimately this suits the politicians (“we granted 7 billions planning applications!”) the NIMBYs and the politicians again (“we played the system for you and only 3 houses were built”)
How can we improve the market to allow many small building companies to build 5-20 houses on new plots? And would it actually help?
Abolish planning replacing it with zoning and standards instead, and yes, dramatically.
There were sound issues with the initial planning reforms Boris was attempting, but the complete abandonment of them despite a big majority which could have adjusted it and a got something through, was a real disappointment.
I turned it off 10 minutes in but I did come back for the last bit (from the green stuff onwards).
I thought they were both pretty poor and cringe. Starmer was a bit more confident towards the end, but I don’t think he was quite as prepared as he could’ve been for Sunak throwing the kitchen sink at him. He should have been. He should have known Sunak was desperate for a game changer and he needed some one liners to deal with that.
Of the bits I saw, he did not adequately neutralise the £2000 tax rise figure and he did not adequately neutralise the ground source heat pump stuff. Not quick enough on his feet. Those are the sort of things that could cut through.
I don’t think this will have much of an impact. But i do think it should give Starmer a bit of pause for thought as to how he deals with Sunak when they go head to head again. I think he will probably be better second time around.
But both of them have to be glad Farage wasn’t there. Hate to say it, but he’d have wiped the floor with both of them.
I don't disagree with the overall analysis of Sunak v. Starmer.
What I thought was interesting, though, is that throughout the debate it felt as if Starmer was the incumbent (having to defend his policies) and Sunak the challenger (bold plans for action) rather than vice versa.
I turned it off 10 minutes in but I did come back for the last bit (from the green stuff onwards).
I thought they were both pretty poor and cringe. Starmer was a bit more confident towards the end, but I don’t think he was quite as prepared as he could’ve been for Sunak throwing the kitchen sink at him. He should have been. He should have known Sunak was desperate for a game changer and he needed some one liners to deal with that.
Of the bits I saw, he did not adequately neutralise the £2000 tax rise figure and he did not adequately neutralise the ground source heat pump stuff. Not quick enough on his feet. Those are the sort of things that could cut through.
I don’t think this will have much of an impact. But i do think it should give Starmer a bit of pause for thought as to how he deals with Sunak when they go head to head again. I think he will probably be better second time around.
But both of them have to be glad Farage wasn’t there. Hate to say it, but he’d have wiped the floor with both of them.
How many more debates are there, and do any of them clash with the football?
I don't disagree with the overall analysis of Sunak v. Starmer.
What I thought was interesting, though, is that throughout the debate it felt as if Starmer was the incumbent (having to defend his policies) and Sunak the challenger (bold plans for action) rather than vice versa.
Tories are desperate to run as the insurgents. It divorces them from 14 years. It's the Boris tactic and indeed the Farage one
Neither were surprising or particularly interesting. Moon Rabbit who cheered on her champion from start to finish spoke for most. No one was looking for enlightenment and they didn't get any.
I hope they cancel the next one or invite more leaders. That was just painful to watch .
“Moon Rabbit who cheered on her champion from start to finish”
Not true at all. I came with Emmerdale waiting on catch-up to bomb out any moment. But who expected Rishi to out debate Starmer all through it as clearly as that? My comments are perfectly neutral and balanced. Rishi debated just like you should in a debate. Starmer was supposed to put gloves up in the ring, and jab back, that’s why the fight looked unedifying, it was Starmer’s fault.
No leader in such a big debate should allow such big blows to land on them as Starmer allowed tonight. Instead of preparing was he in the pub watching football?
Sunak did everything he could. Project the line. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat. Will be very pleased! As he was after the first Truss debate.
Sunak has found his attack line then and it's on tax. So KS has work to do there.
Both parties need to put up tax given our huge deficit and decrepid infrastructure and services.
Of the two I'd rather have Starmer who won't constantly be hounded for more unfunded tax cuts as Sunak would be by the rest of his party. The 'freezing' tax bands trick won't have the same impact now inflation is back to normal.
Did say Sunak edged it. But I've done boxing and prosecuting as analogies. Here's another PB favourite. How about one day cricket? Sunak's won the toss (actually there isn't one), put them in and seen them make a leisurely 350. His top order have got themselves out, retired hurt or mysteriously signed for the opposition mid innings. So he's come out flailing and connected with a few against a very defensive field and unambitious bowling. It will have cheered the partisan crowd. It may mean the difference between losing by 200 runs or 120. But they still need 150 off 60 balls.
Flynn talking up the bongo polls showing Labour on a 200 majority. People should be free to make their own choices and reject failed idiots.
I quite agree! Why vote for cuts and failure with the SNP. He says "a bill to ban privatisation" and a guarantee that Scotland's public services get funded properly.
But health is devolved so "privatisation" south of the wall has no impact in Scotland. What does have an impact are the SNP's cuts to front line services. And they can't blame Westminster whilst wasting so much money on their own priorities like the GRA whilst my mum ended up stuck on a trolley for 2 days and you can't get an NHS dentist...
Insofar as diddy parties have priorities, the GRA wasn’t an SLD one?
While I agree that this won’t produce a massive change in the outcome I think these numbers suggest a pretty substantial win for Sunak. The Tories and he personally are so far behind and this suggests a lot of people agree he won while not liking the Tories. I’d be interested in students of these numbers telling me if I’m right that they normally bear more relation to VI polls."
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
The point is tonight the election campaign started in earnest with clear dividing lines
I expected Starmer to walk the debate tonight and he didn't
There are at least 2 more Sunak v Starmer debates and Starmer is going to have to up his game
Maybe it's just that being PM gives one a sheen that makes one win a debate.
Though maybe winning a debate (remember how Jez banged on about having won the argument?), doesn't feed through into winning an election or being any good at governing.
If UK politics can grow out of that Oxbridge Union tosh, good.
Not necessarily, Brown lost the first 2010 debate to Clegg for example.
In the US Bush lost the first 2004 debate, Obama lost the first 2012 debate, Trump lost the first 2020 debate
Flynn talking up the bongo polls showing Labour on a 200 majority. People should be free to make their own choices and reject failed idiots.
I quite agree! Why vote for cuts and failure with the SNP. He says "a bill to ban privatisation" and a guarantee that Scotland's public services get funded properly.
But health is devolved so "privatisation" south of the wall has no impact in Scotland. What does have an impact are the SNP's cuts to front line services. And they can't blame Westminster whilst wasting so much money on their own priorities like the GRA whilst my mum ended up stuck on a trolley for 2 days and you can't get an NHS dentist...
Insofar as diddy parties have priorities, the GRA wasn’t an SLD one?
Hard to have priorities in government when you have 4 MSPs. Question is whether the SNP are pursuing their own internal issues or the issues of the general public who want the A96 building and ferries building and fonding for front line education and healthcare.
U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday instituted a broad asylum ban on migrants caught illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, a major enforcement move in the run-up to November elections that will decide control of the White House.
Migrants caught crossing illegally could be quickly deported or turned back to Mexico under the measure, which will take effect just after midnight.
Flynn talking up the bongo polls showing Labour on a 200 majority. People should be free to make their own choices and reject failed idiots.
I quite agree! Why vote for cuts and failure with the SNP. He says "a bill to ban privatisation" and a guarantee that Scotland's public services get funded properly.
But health is devolved so "privatisation" south of the wall has no impact in Scotland. What does have an impact are the SNP's cuts to front line services. And they can't blame Westminster whilst wasting so much money on their own priorities like the GRA whilst my mum ended up stuck on a trolley for 2 days and you can't get an NHS dentist...
Insofar as diddy parties have priorities, the GRA wasn’t an SLD one?
Hard to have priorities in government when you have 4 MSPs. Question is whether the SNP are pursuing their own internal issues or the issues of the general public who want the A96 building and ferries building and fonding for front line education and healthcare.
‘Why oh why are the SNP wasting time on stuff with which we unanimously agree?’
Our pavement-pounder group thought that Rishi Sunak did better than hoped - and had some good lines, especially his closing remarks which were much stronger than Starmer.
Starmer looked poorly prepared. He didn't rebut the "£2,000 extra tax", which is now firmly out there.
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
The point is tonight the election campaign started in earnest with clear dividing lines
I expected Starmer to walk the debate tonight and he didn't
There are at least 2 more Sunak v Starmer debates and Starmer is going to have to up his game
Why did you expect Starmer to walk it? His entire strategy was the Geoff Boycott dead ball - keep deflecting until the opposition fail to gain the ground they need.
The election campaign did not start tonight. Again, come on. All the voters who the polls have unanimously shown have made up their minds - you expect a debate they will only see clips of to change the fundamentals?
Remember that I am not a Starmer partisan. I am running against the Labour Party just as much I am the Tories and SNP and hopefully Alba (come on Alex!). But saying "Labour will put up taxes" is just silly - the TORIES have put up taxes. People know their taxes have gone up because they can count. They aren't voting for the party who have put up their taxes and are now claiming they have cut their taxes.
Shouting over the top of everyone to keep repeating that the sky is green will not persuade people that the sky is green.
The allocation of 45 seconds for an answer is a hindrance. You can’t explain in any meaningful way topics as important as the cost of living, security, etc. Far better to have fewer questions, longer answers - it’s meant to be a debate after all.
Choose a better moderator. Julie Etchingham is excellent as an anchor on ITV News but lacks the fire to tell the candidates to shut the f*ck up.
Is there much point having a debate before the manifestos have been revealed? “He hasn’t got a plan”. “Yes I have.” “Show me.” “It’s in my manifesto.
Yes, especially on 1. 45 seconds is not long enough for a lawyerly rebuttal of the many false allegations that Sunak threw at Starmer. Which is why Starmer needs to sort out a short, snappy, dismissive rebuttal of stuff like the £2k tax hike and the cost of heat pumps.
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
As tonight's Yougov was AFTER the debate, every other poll was BEFORE the debate.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
Starmer talking about home ownership and building homes, and need to change planning laws. Good news to me, but is it actually popular?
He's hit the nail on what needs to be done.
I've said for years planning restrictions and NIMBYs are the number one block in this country. If he follows through on that, then he's won my vote with that - but what's the detail because that's a big if.
Starmer talking about home ownership and building homes, and need to change planning laws. Good news to me, but is it actually popular?
He's hit the nail on what needs to be done.
I've said for years planning restrictions and NIMBYs are the number one block in this country. If he follows through on that, then he's won my vote with that - but what's the detail because that's a big if.
The blocker isn’t planning (at the moment) but planning permissions stacking up.
The ultimate cause of that is local monopolies for house builders - who then throttle building to keep prices up.
But ultimately this suits the politicians (“we granted 7 billions planning applications!”) the NIMBYs and the politicians again (“we played the system for you and only 3 houses were built”)
How can we improve the market to allow many small building companies to build 5-20 houses on new plots? And would it actually help?
The Victorians and Edwardians would lay out streets, put in the services and then sell half a street to each builder. Or less. Which is why suburbs from that time often have a slightly different design of house each side. Or the style changes every 30 houses, or something.
This worked to build at vast rates - being last to complete would often mean the tail end of the boom and the worst prices.
Bizarre that, being so cultish, he allows Streeting to be so sensible on the topic of NHS-as-religion.
Starmer is crackers to say that. Whilst I haven't personally had to go private and do not have private health insurance, I have close family who have and they were right to do so.
If you are in pain and have cash, you go private. You absolutely shouldn't have to, but you do.
Nah got a decent round up of where the Indian election has got to?
Modi lost the BJP majority but has his coalition partners to get over the line.
The opposition has a much better result than expected and it will give parties like the INC a base to really try and get back in the game during the next parliament.
All in all a pretty good result for Indian democracy I think. Modi will have to consult and listen, he can no longer railroad and will have to keep a coalition together to stay in power. And suddenly India has an opposition again after them having been absent for so long.
Our pavement-pounder group thought that Rishi Sunak did better than hoped - and had some good lines, especially his closing remarks which were much stronger than Starmer.
Starmer looked poorly prepared. He didn't rebut the "£2,000 extra tax", which is now firmly out there.
Sorry, can I be clear what you mean by your pavement pounder group? Do you mean Conservative activists you campaign with?
"US President Joe Biden has announced a sweeping new executive action aimed at curbing migrant arrivals at the US-Mexico border
It will stop migrants who cross unlawfully from receiving asylum, but only takes effect when the southern border has been "overwhelmed""
Biden agrees with Sunak that there is such a thing as arriving illegaly.
I must admit, I think that is a spectacularly stupid policy that will satisfy no one.
The right policy is to pay the Mexican government very large amounts of money not to let migrants cross their country. Outsource border control to Mexico.
Flynn talking up the bongo polls showing Labour on a 200 majority. People should be free to make their own choices and reject failed idiots.
I quite agree! Why vote for cuts and failure with the SNP. He says "a bill to ban privatisation" and a guarantee that Scotland's public services get funded properly.
But health is devolved so "privatisation" south of the wall has no impact in Scotland. What does have an impact are the SNP's cuts to front line services. And they can't blame Westminster whilst wasting so much money on their own priorities like the GRA whilst my mum ended up stuck on a trolley for 2 days and you can't get an NHS dentist...
Insofar as diddy parties have priorities, the GRA wasn’t an SLD one?
Hard to have priorities in government when you have 4 MSPs. Question is whether the SNP are pursuing their own internal issues or the issues of the general public who want the A96 building and ferries building and fonding for front line education and healthcare.
‘Why oh why are the SNP wasting time on stuff with which we unanimously agree?’
Typical diddy party behaviour.
Do the voters agree? Do the current SNP leadership agree?
Again, voters want focus to be on the terrible state of our schools and hospitals.
Our pavement-pounder group thought that Rishi Sunak did better than hoped - and had some good lines, especially his closing remarks which were much stronger than Starmer.
Starmer looked poorly prepared. He didn't rebut the "£2,000 extra tax", which is now firmly out there.
Sorry, can I be clear what you mean by your pavement pounder group? Do you mean Conservative activists you campaign with?
Yes. Those who door-knock, rather than just leafletters. The ones on the sharp end of interacting with the voters.
Nah got a decent round up of where the Indian election has got to?
Modi lost the BJP majority but has his coalition partners to get over the line.
The opposition has a much better result than expected and it will give parties like the INC a base to really try and get back in the game during the next parliament.
All in all a pretty good result for Indian democracy I think. Modi will have to consult and listen, he can no longer railroad and will have to keep a coalition together to stay in power. And suddenly India has an opposition again after them having been absent for so long.
Thank you. The bit I can’t get a sense of is who is partners are. It never came up before, but now seems highly relevant.
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
As tonight's Yougov was AFTER the debate, every other poll was BEFORE the debate.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
Of course! Not because of the Revelation that Starmer will slap £2k onto taxes. Because Farage is back and we will see a big surge in Reform voters.
Problem is that this is FPTP, more Tories go Farage than Labour, and more seats are lost to the Tories because the vote splits as it did in 2019.
Its hard to sell "Labour will put up your taxes" when the party saying it have put up your taxes.
Bizarre that, being so cultish, he allows Streeting to be so sensible on the topic of NHS-as-religion.
Starmer is crackers to say that. Whilst I haven't personally had to go private and do not have private health insurance, I have close family who have and they were right to do so.
If you are in pain and have cash, you go private. You absolutely shouldn't have to, but you do.
Is VAT chargeable on private healthcare? I don't know, as I've only ever had it through work.
Nah got a decent round up of where the Indian election has got to?
Modi lost the BJP majority but has his coalition partners to get over the line.
The opposition has a much better result than expected and it will give parties like the INC a base to really try and get back in the game during the next parliament.
All in all a pretty good result for Indian democracy I think. Modi will have to consult and listen, he can no longer railroad and will have to keep a coalition together to stay in power. And suddenly India has an opposition again after them having been absent for so long.
Thank you. The bit I can’t get a sense of is who is partners are. It never came up before, but now seems highly relevant.
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
As tonight's Yougov was AFTER the debate, every other poll was BEFORE the debate.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
Of course! Not because of the Revelation that Starmer will slap £2k onto taxes. Because Farage is back and we will see a big surge in Reform voters.
Problem is that this is FPTP, more Tories go Farage than Labour, and more seats are lost to the Tories because the vote splits as it did in 2019.
Its hard to sell "Labour will put up your taxes" when the party saying it have put up your taxes.
As I also posted earlier Yougov had Farage taking equally from Labour and the Tories in its only poll on him returning as Reform leader
Our pavement-pounder group thought that Rishi Sunak did better than hoped - and had some good lines, especially his closing remarks which were much stronger than Starmer.
Starmer looked poorly prepared. He didn't rebut the "£2,000 extra tax", which is now firmly out there.
Sorry, can I be clear what you mean by your pavement pounder group? Do you mean Conservative activists you campaign with?
Yes. Those who door-knock, rather than just leafletters. The ones on the sharp end of interacting with the voters.
Are you still happy with your <5% Reform prediction in your seat, which you made before Farage plopped back into the election? Think it changes anything in your part of the world?
Bizarre that, being so cultish, he allows Streeting to be so sensible on the topic of NHS-as-religion.
Starmer is crackers to say that. Whilst I haven't personally had to go private and do not have private health insurance, I have close family who have and they were right to do so.
If you are in pain and have cash, you go private. You absolutely shouldn't have to, but you do.
Is VAT chargeable on private healthcare? I don't know, as I've only ever had it through work.
No clue. I've never even gone private for dentistry. Not because of ideological purity reasons, I rarely need medical intervention. But just to be clear, I would if I had to.
"US President Joe Biden has announced a sweeping new executive action aimed at curbing migrant arrivals at the US-Mexico border
It will stop migrants who cross unlawfully from receiving asylum, but only takes effect when the southern border has been "overwhelmed""
Biden agrees with Sunak that there is such a thing as arriving illegaly.
I must admit, I think that is a spectacularly stupid policy that will satisfy no one.
The right policy is to pay the Mexican government very large amounts of money not to let migrants cross their country. Outsource border control to Mexico.
Mexico has been quite lax on immigration, including this recent amnesty:
"The Programa Temporal de Regularización Migratoria (PTRM) published on 12 January 2015 in the Diario Oficial de la Federación, is directed at those foreigners who have made their permanent residence in Mexico but due to 'diverse circumstances' did not regularize their stay in the country and find themselves turning to 'third parties' to perform various procedures, including finding employment.[27]
The program is aimed at foreign nationals who entered the country before 9 November 2012.[27] Approved foreigners received through the PTRM the status of 'temporary resident', document valid for four years,[27] and are eligible afterwards for permanent residency.[28] The temporary program ran from 13 January to 18 December 2015.[27]"
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
As tonight's Yougov was AFTER the debate, every other poll was BEFORE the debate.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
I wouldn’t go that far. The likeable and in touch in the poll above is quite massive.
How are we going to measure the impact on the polls?
How about the sky tracker, currently Con on 23.4 tonight.
Nah got a decent round up of where the Indian election has got to?
Modi lost the BJP majority but has his coalition partners to get over the line.
The opposition has a much better result than expected and it will give parties like the INC a base to really try and get back in the game during the next parliament.
All in all a pretty good result for Indian democracy I think. Modi will have to consult and listen, he can no longer railroad and will have to keep a coalition together to stay in power. And suddenly India has an opposition again after them having been absent for so long.
'May lost the Tory majority but has her coalition partners the DUP to get over the line.
The Labour opposition has a much better result than expected and it will give parties like the LDs a base to really try and get back in the game during the next parliament.
All in all a pretty good result for UK democracy I think. May will have to consult and listen, she can no longer railroad and will have to keep a coalition together to stay in power. And suddenly the UK has an opposition again after them having been absent for so long.'
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
As tonight's Yougov was AFTER the debate, every other poll was BEFORE the debate.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
Of course! Not because of the Revelation that Starmer will slap £2k onto taxes. Because Farage is back and we will see a big surge in Reform voters.
Problem is that this is FPTP, more Tories go Farage than Labour, and more seats are lost to the Tories because the vote splits as it did in 2019.
Its hard to sell "Labour will put up your taxes" when the party saying it have put up your taxes.
As I also posted earlier Yougov had Farage taking equally from Labour and the Tories in its only poll on him returning as Reform leader
Professor Sir John Curtice ripped that hypothesis apart with evidence when it was put to him yesterday.
Reform will win one-time Labour voters in red wall seats. Which will reduce the size of the incoming Labour majority in places like Hartlepools, but not change the result which is that you are getting wiped out in the north east of England...
If tories like you start sounding smug you’ll be heading for an even bigger landslide defeat.
We’ve had enough of the fuckers.
For what reason are you so tetchy this evening?
I’ve had a few drinks and didn’t watch the debate, but will take any opportunity afforded to wish your lot a thorough drubbing in the election. It’s overdue.
If Starmer was crap tonight he needs to up his game. Millions of Lib Dems are depending on him.
Oh dear Sunak after a good start implodes on the NHS question .
Suck it up and go private !
If you can afford to go private you get faster care and you free NHS capacity for those who can't. What exactly is wrong with that? Starmer is not bothered about his relatives dying. Well, at least he is consistent.
No - there are a finite number of doctors and nurses in the UK. Going private is skipping the queue.
Flynn talking up the bongo polls showing Labour on a 200 majority. People should be free to make their own choices and reject failed idiots.
I quite agree! Why vote for cuts and failure with the SNP. He says "a bill to ban privatisation" and a guarantee that Scotland's public services get funded properly.
But health is devolved so "privatisation" south of the wall has no impact in Scotland. What does have an impact are the SNP's cuts to front line services. And they can't blame Westminster whilst wasting so much money on their own priorities like the GRA whilst my mum ended up stuck on a trolley for 2 days and you can't get an NHS dentist...
Insofar as diddy parties have priorities, the GRA wasn’t an SLD one?
Hard to have priorities in government when you have 4 MSPs. Question is whether the SNP are pursuing their own internal issues or the issues of the general public who want the A96 building and ferries building and fonding for front line education and healthcare.
‘Why oh why are the SNP wasting time on stuff with which we unanimously agree?’
Typical diddy party behaviour.
Do the voters agree? Do the current SNP leadership agree?
Again, voters want focus to be on the terrible state of our schools and hospitals.
You’ll be telling me next that AC-H & co voted unanimously for the Hate Crime bill by mistake because they were so distracted by the terrible state of our schools and hospitals.
Nah got a decent round up of where the Indian election has got to?
Modi lost the BJP majority but has his coalition partners to get over the line.
The opposition has a much better result than expected and it will give parties like the INC a base to really try and get back in the game during the next parliament.
All in all a pretty good result for Indian democracy I think. Modi will have to consult and listen, he can no longer railroad and will have to keep a coalition together to stay in power. And suddenly India has an opposition again after them having been absent for so long.
Thank you. The bit I can’t get a sense of is who is partners are. It never came up before, but now seems highly relevant.
It can be a bit complex from the limited understanding I have of it (I have been following Indian politics casually for a number of years, but I do not profess to be an expert).
In India you generally have broad alliances made up of a number of national and regional parties. There is sometimes some ideological underpinning between the different coalitions but a lot of it is also transactional and what suits those parties at the time. These alliances can shift and change throughout a parliament and who was friends with someone one minute will be friends with the opposition the next. While I expect Modi to be secure for the next few years, because the BJP is by far the largest party in parliament and probably the only one that can really muster a coalition to rule, he can’t just expect to get his way all the time anymore.
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
As tonight's Yougov was AFTER the debate, every other poll was BEFORE the debate.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
Of course! Not because of the Revelation that Starmer will slap £2k onto taxes. Because Farage is back and we will see a big surge in Reform voters.
Problem is that this is FPTP, more Tories go Farage than Labour, and more seats are lost to the Tories because the vote splits as it did in 2019.
Its hard to sell "Labour will put up your taxes" when the party saying it have put up your taxes.
As I also posted earlier Yougov had Farage taking equally from Labour and the Tories in its only poll on him returning as Reform leader
Professor Sir John Curtice ripped that hypothesis apart with evidence when it was put to him yesterday.
Reform will win one-time Labour voters in red wall seats. Which will reduce the size of the incoming Labour majority in places like Hartlepools, but not change the result which is that you are getting wiped out in the north east of England...
No he didn't, seats like Bishop Auckland and Grimsby could be saved for the blues if enough 2019 Conservative, usually Labour voters now go Reform not back to Labour
Flynn talking up the bongo polls showing Labour on a 200 majority. People should be free to make their own choices and reject failed idiots.
I quite agree! Why vote for cuts and failure with the SNP. He says "a bill to ban privatisation" and a guarantee that Scotland's public services get funded properly.
But health is devolved so "privatisation" south of the wall has no impact in Scotland. What does have an impact are the SNP's cuts to front line services. And they can't blame Westminster whilst wasting so much money on their own priorities like the GRA whilst my mum ended up stuck on a trolley for 2 days and you can't get an NHS dentist...
Insofar as diddy parties have priorities, the GRA wasn’t an SLD one?
Hard to have priorities in government when you have 4 MSPs. Question is whether the SNP are pursuing their own internal issues or the issues of the general public who want the A96 building and ferries building and fonding for front line education and healthcare.
‘Why oh why are the SNP wasting time on stuff with which we unanimously agree?’
Typical diddy party behaviour.
Do the voters agree? Do the current SNP leadership agree?
Again, voters want focus to be on the terrible state of our schools and hospitals.
You’ll be telling me next that AC-H & co voted unanimously for the Hate Crime bill by mistake because they were so distracted by the terrible state of our schools and hospitals.
Maybe they were hit on the head by some RAAC concrete and voted the wrong way in confusion
If tories like you start sounding smug you’ll be heading for an even bigger landslide defeat.
We’ve had enough of the fuckers.
For what reason are you so tetchy this evening?
Sky reporting that Labour mps and spokespersons in their studio post the debate were quite despondent and tetchy
I don't believe they are unprofessional enough for that.
That is exactly what Sam Coates said
And I don't believe him, it's media hyping. Catch someone not smiling for a second and BOOM they are looking despondant etc.
Keeps people watching if they believe there's actually something happening LOOK there's something happening WE have the news WE have the info just KEEP WATCHING and there's more on this after the break
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
As tonight's Yougov was AFTER the debate, every other poll was BEFORE the debate.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
I wouldn’t go that far. The likeable and in touch in the poll above is quite massive.
How are we going to measure the impact on the polls?
How about the sky tracker, currently Con on 23.4 tonight.
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
As tonight's Yougov was AFTER the debate, every other poll was BEFORE the debate.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
Of course! Not because of the Revelation that Starmer will slap £2k onto taxes. Because Farage is back and we will see a big surge in Reform voters.
Problem is that this is FPTP, more Tories go Farage than Labour, and more seats are lost to the Tories because the vote splits as it did in 2019.
Its hard to sell "Labour will put up your taxes" when the party saying it have put up your taxes.
As I also posted earlier Yougov had Farage taking equally from Labour and the Tories in its only poll on him returning as Reform leader
Professor Sir John Curtice ripped that hypothesis apart with evidence when it was put to him yesterday.
Reform will win one-time Labour voters in red wall seats. Which will reduce the size of the incoming Labour majority in places like Hartlepools, but not change the result which is that you are getting wiped out in the north east of England...
Reform will basically get 2019 Brexit voters - it won’t impact anything in Red Wall seats because the Brexit party stood in all those seats so their voters are obvious.
The issue will be in none Red Wall seats where the Brexit party stood down for Bozo. Which means we don’t know how many voters there would have voted for Brexit / Reform but it’s likely to be a few percent and that few percent could cost Rishi a few seats…
In no way an endorsement, but after watching tonight's debate this came to mind while I was thinking "She'd have had both of them as a light Hors d'oeuvre" :
A discussion chaired by current affairs and political programmes commenter and presenter, David Dimbleby, joined by representatives of the press; Mary Goldring, an economic journalist, Peter Jenkins of The Guardian, and Anthony Shrimsley, assistant editor of the Sun, with the Leader of the Opposition, Conservative leader Margaret Thatcher, in which she outlines the policies she hopes will win her party the next general election.
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
As tonight's Yougov was AFTER the debate, every other poll was BEFORE the debate.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
Of course! Not because of the Revelation that Starmer will slap £2k onto taxes. Because Farage is back and we will see a big surge in Reform voters.
Problem is that this is FPTP, more Tories go Farage than Labour, and more seats are lost to the Tories because the vote splits as it did in 2019.
Its hard to sell "Labour will put up your taxes" when the party saying it have put up your taxes.
As I also posted earlier Yougov had Farage taking equally from Labour and the Tories in its only poll on him returning as Reform leader
Professor Sir John Curtice ripped that hypothesis apart with evidence when it was put to him yesterday.
Reform will win one-time Labour voters in red wall seats. Which will reduce the size of the incoming Labour majority in places like Hartlepools, but not change the result which is that you are getting wiped out in the north east of England...
No he didn't as he had no poll to back it up and seats like Bishop Auckland and Grimsby could be saved for the blues if enough 2019 Conservative, usually Labour voters now go Reform not back to Labour
“If” being the operative word. I know you may not like what Professor Sir John Curtice said or the evidence he cited, but he did say it, and he did cite it….
If tories like you start sounding smug you’ll be heading for an even bigger landslide defeat.
We’ve had enough of the fuckers.
For what reason are you so tetchy this evening?
I’ve had a few drinks and didn’t watch the debate, but will take any opportunity afforded to wish your lot a thorough drubbing in the election. It’s overdue.
If Starmer was crap tonight he needs to up his game. Millions of Lib Dems are depending on him.
It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that.
From the moment Sunak threw the punch, look at all the PBers below in this live thread shouting, rebut it now Starmer, rebut it for goodness sake, you need to rebut it right now. …my God, he’s not rebutted it.
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
As tonight's Yougov was AFTER the debate, every other poll was BEFORE the debate.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
Of course! Not because of the Revelation that Starmer will slap £2k onto taxes. Because Farage is back and we will see a big surge in Reform voters.
Problem is that this is FPTP, more Tories go Farage than Labour, and more seats are lost to the Tories because the vote splits as it did in 2019.
Its hard to sell "Labour will put up your taxes" when the party saying it have put up your taxes.
As I also posted earlier Yougov had Farage taking equally from Labour and the Tories in its only poll on him returning as Reform leader
Professor Sir John Curtice ripped that hypothesis apart with evidence when it was put to him yesterday.
Reform will win one-time Labour voters in red wall seats. Which will reduce the size of the incoming Labour majority in places like Hartlepools, but not change the result which is that you are getting wiped out in the north east of England...
Reform will basically get 2019 Brexit voters - it won’t impact anything in Red Wall seats because the Brexit party stood in all those seats so their voters are obvious.
The issue will be in none Red Wall seats where the Brexit party stood down for Bozo. Which means we don’t know how many voters there would have voted for Brexit / Reform but it’s likely to be a few percent and that few percent could cost Rishi a few seats…
Even in redwall seats the Brexit Party total in 2019 was just a quarter the UKIP total there in 2015 as so many UKIP 2015 voters there voted for Boris in 2019
What I find most fascinating is that “we’re going to not give your run-down town the money you promised because we’re going to conscript your kids” is expected to save the Tories in Bishop and Grimsby.
Nah got a decent round up of where the Indian election has got to?
Modi lost the BJP majority but has his coalition partners to get over the line.
The opposition has a much better result than expected and it will give parties like the INC a base to really try and get back in the game during the next parliament.
All in all a pretty good result for Indian democracy I think. Modi will have to consult and listen, he can no longer railroad and will have to keep a coalition together to stay in power. And suddenly India has an opposition again after them having been absent for so long.
Thank you. The bit I can’t get a sense of is who is partners are. It never came up before, but now seems highly relevant.
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
As tonight's Yougov was AFTER the debate, every other poll was BEFORE the debate.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
Of course! Not because of the Revelation that Starmer will slap £2k onto taxes. Because Farage is back and we will see a big surge in Reform voters.
Problem is that this is FPTP, more Tories go Farage than Labour, and more seats are lost to the Tories because the vote splits as it did in 2019.
Its hard to sell "Labour will put up your taxes" when the party saying it have put up your taxes.
As I also posted earlier Yougov had Farage taking equally from Labour and the Tories in its only poll on him returning as Reform leader
Professor Sir John Curtice ripped that hypothesis apart with evidence when it was put to him yesterday.
Reform will win one-time Labour voters in red wall seats. Which will reduce the size of the incoming Labour majority in places like Hartlepools, but not change the result which is that you are getting wiped out in the north east of England...
Reform will basically get 2019 Brexit voters - it won’t impact anything in Red Wall seats because the Brexit party stood in all those seats so their voters are obvious.
The issue will be in none Red Wall seats where the Brexit party stood down for Bozo. Which means we don’t know how many voters there would have voted for Brexit / Reform but it’s likely to be a few percent and that few percent could cost Rishi a few seats…
I don't think this is right. Reform 2024 is a different proposition then Brexit 2019, in a different context, with VERY different leaders of the two biggest parties.
As HY, BigG and Ms Rabbit have pointed out, a clear win for Sunak
Again you are being silly
Sunak won and the bigger issue is 85% support from 2019 conservative voters
Question. Please compare and contrast: a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
As tonight's Yougov was AFTER the debate, every other poll was BEFORE the debate.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
I wouldn’t go that far. The likeable and in touch in the poll above is quite massive.
How are we going to measure the impact on the polls?
How about the sky tracker, currently Con on 23.4 tonight.
But shall we use Sky live tracker as measuring stick of choice in the coming weeks, to measure and prove to everyone the Conservative polling comeback?
Nah got a decent round up of where the Indian election has got to?
Modi lost the BJP majority but has his coalition partners to get over the line.
The opposition has a much better result than expected and it will give parties like the INC a base to really try and get back in the game during the next parliament.
All in all a pretty good result for Indian democracy I think. Modi will have to consult and listen, he can no longer railroad and will have to keep a coalition together to stay in power. And suddenly India has an opposition again after them having been absent for so long.
Thank you. The bit I can’t get a sense of is who is partners are. It never came up before, but now seems highly relevant.
It can be a bit complex from the limited understanding I have of it (I have been following Indian politics casually for a number of years, but I do not profess to be an expert).
In India you generally have broad alliances made up of a number of national and regional parties. There is sometimes some ideological underpinning between the different coalitions but a lot of it is also transactional and what suits those parties at the time. These alliances can shift and change throughout a parliament and who was friends with someone one minute will be friends with the opposition the next. While I expect Modi to be secure for the next few years, because the BJP is by far the largest party in parliament and probably the only one that can really muster a coalition to rule, he can’t just expect to get his way all the time anymore.
Thanks. It’s interesting. I think we’re all going to have to start to follow it a lot more closely. It’s really hard to get a sense of the “soap opera” from over here, and much of the commentary is where we can’t read it. Bit gap for someone to fill I think. A proper India correspondent on the BBC Etc.
If tories like you start sounding smug you’ll be heading for an even bigger landslide defeat.
We’ve had enough of the fuckers.
For what reason are you so tetchy this evening?
I’ve had a few drinks and didn’t watch the debate, but will take any opportunity afforded to wish your lot a thorough drubbing in the election. It’s overdue.
If Starmer was crap tonight he needs to up his game. Millions of Lib Dems are depending on him.
It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that.
From the moment Sunak threw the punch, look at all the PBers below in this live thread shouting, rebut it now Starmer, rebut it for goodness sake, you need to rebut it right now. …my God, he’s not rebutted it.
If tories like you start sounding smug you’ll be heading for an even bigger landslide defeat.
We’ve had enough of the fuckers.
For what reason are you so tetchy this evening?
I’ve had a few drinks and didn’t watch the debate, but will take any opportunity afforded to wish your lot a thorough drubbing in the election. It’s overdue.
If Starmer was crap tonight he needs to up his game. Millions of Lib Dems are depending on him.
It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that.
From the moment Sunak threw the punch, look at all the PBers below in this live thread shouting, rebut it now Starmer, rebut it for goodness sake, you need to rebut it right now. …my God, he’s not rebutted it.
Game on.
Just so we’re clear, you are predicting a Tory win?
If tories like you start sounding smug you’ll be heading for an even bigger landslide defeat.
We’ve had enough of the fuckers.
For what reason are you so tetchy this evening?
I’ve had a few drinks and didn’t watch the debate, but will take any opportunity afforded to wish your lot a thorough drubbing in the election. It’s overdue.
If Starmer was crap tonight he needs to up his game. Millions of Lib Dems are depending on him.
It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that.
From the moment Sunak threw the punch, look at all the PBers below in this live thread shouting, rebut it now Starmer, rebut it for goodness sake, you need to rebut it right now. …my God, he’s not rebutted it.
Game on.
Tax ia winner for the Tories, but pension tax even more so, symbolically, because of there being broad pubic awareness of a lack of money, on the theme of taxation more generally and overall..
Starmer is trading on dependable, security, not rocking the boat, and recently noticeably letting his hair go more grey, minus the very regular dye these days. It's an entire profile partly designed to appeal to older voters, and because of this potential damage to that brand it could help the Tories win a few per cent off the Labour lead, and maybe even rescue them a few seats here and there.
Starmer had everything to lose and nothing to gain. Sunak the opposite. Not much happened.
Meanwhile in 2010 Clegg aced the debate, soared in the polls, but ended up losing seats.
Conclusion: 🤷
Clegg got 23% in 2010, the highest Liberal/SDP voteshare since 1983 and 57 seats, the second highest Liberal seat total since 1929. He got a hung parliament and also became the first Liberal leader to enter the Cabinet since WW2
If tories like you start sounding smug you’ll be heading for an even bigger landslide defeat.
We’ve had enough of the fuckers.
For what reason are you so tetchy this evening?
I’ve had a few drinks and didn’t watch the debate, but will take any opportunity afforded to wish your lot a thorough drubbing in the election. It’s overdue.
If Starmer was crap tonight he needs to up his game. Millions of Lib Dems are depending on him.
It’s worse than that. The Tory £2,000 Tax Attack is everywhere now, and it’s blown this election wide open. 1992 at all that.
From the moment Sunak threw the punch, look at all the PBers below in this live thread shouting, rebut it now Starmer, rebut it for goodness sake, you need to rebut it right now. …my God, he’s not rebutted it.
Game on.
Just so we’re clear, you are predicting a Tory win?
I’ll be interested to see what Labour have in their manifesto for social care . Starmer mentioned they will be doing something about that .
Yet he specifically did not commit to the Dilnot style cap that is currently supposed to happen in 2025.
Sunak claims he would implement it as planned.
Labour talks about a national care plan but no details. They definitely will look at pay though - they plan social care to be first sector that has some new kind of sectoral national pay structure bargaining thing. We await details.
Comments
Whereas you will often find outraged locals wanting to object on highways grounds, and local politicians most angry about that, but they often cannot use it because local officers have said it was fine and the standard requires a lot more evidence to go against that if it is to hold up at appeal.
I won’t have that!
Starmer is a knight of the realm. No way he was wearing brogues with a suit, especially a dark one.
a) the snap YouGov poll showing that 85% of the 2019 Tory vote is still on board, and
b) every other poll including yesterday's YouGov MRP showing the Tories getting demolished
I know it would be helpful to PB Tories and fellow travellers if 2019 Tories all went back home. But in reality we know they are not. You know. Even Sunak knows.
Come on.
I thought they were both pretty poor and cringe. Starmer was a bit more confident towards the end, but I don’t think he was quite as prepared as he could’ve been for Sunak throwing the kitchen sink at him. He should have been. He should have known Sunak was desperate for a game changer and he needed some one liners to deal with that.
Of the bits I saw, he did not adequately neutralise the £2000 tax rise figure and he did not adequately neutralise the ground source heat pump stuff. Not quick enough on his feet. Those are the sort of things that could cut through.
I don’t think this will have much of an impact. But i do think it should give Starmer a bit of pause for thought as to how he deals with Sunak when they go head to head again. I think he will probably be better second time around.
But both of them have to be glad Farage wasn’t there. Hate to say it, but he’d have wiped the floor with both of them.
What I thought was interesting, though, is that throughout the debate it felt as if Starmer was the incumbent (having to defend his policies) and Sunak the challenger (bold plans for action) rather than vice versa.
So what? Anything he can do Nigel can do better.
Of the two I'd rather have Starmer who won't constantly be hounded for more unfunded tax cuts as Sunak would be by the rest of his party. The 'freezing' tax bands trick won't have the same impact now inflation is back to normal.
@Dannythefink
While I agree that this won’t produce a massive change in the outcome I think these numbers suggest a pretty substantial win for Sunak. The Tories and he personally are so far behind and this suggests a lot of people agree he won while not liking the Tories. I’d be interested in students of these numbers telling me if I’m right that they normally bear more relation to VI polls."
https://x.com/Dannythefink/status/1798106486012260830
I expected Starmer to walk the debate tonight and he didn't
There are at least 2 more Sunak v Starmer debates and Starmer is going to have to up his game
https://x.com/bbcpolitics/status/1464253544593346568
Bizarre that, being so cultish, he allows Streeting to be so sensible on the topic of NHS-as-religion.
In the US Bush lost the first 2004 debate, Obama lost the first 2012 debate, Trump lost the first 2020 debate
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-expected-block-migrants-asylum-us-mexico-border-sources-say-2024-06-04/
U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday instituted a broad asylum ban on migrants caught illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, a major enforcement move in the run-up to November elections that will decide control of the White House.
Migrants caught crossing illegally could be quickly deported or turned back to Mexico under the measure, which will take effect just after midnight.
Typical diddy party behaviour.
Starmer looked poorly prepared. He didn't rebut the "£2,000 extra tax", which is now firmly out there.
The election campaign did not start tonight. Again, come on. All the voters who the polls have unanimously shown have made up their minds - you expect a debate they will only see clips of to change the fundamentals?
Remember that I am not a Starmer partisan. I am running against the Labour Party just as much I am the Tories and SNP and hopefully Alba (come on Alex!). But saying "Labour will put up taxes" is just silly - the TORIES have put up taxes. People know their taxes have gone up because they can count. They aren't voting for the party who have put up their taxes and are now claiming they have cut their taxes.
Shouting over the top of everyone to keep repeating that the sky is green will not persuade people that the sky is green.
Which is why Starmer needs to sort out a short, snappy, dismissive rebuttal of stuff like the £2k tax hike and the cost of heat pumps.
I expect Labour's poll lead to narrow by the end of the week after this debate
Labour majority 1.07
This worked to build at vast rates - being last to complete would often mean the tail end of the boom and the worst prices.
If you are in pain and have cash, you go private. You absolutely shouldn't have to, but you do.
The opposition has a much better result than expected and it will give parties like the INC a base to really try and get back in the game during the next parliament.
All in all a pretty good result for Indian democracy I think. Modi will have to consult and listen, he can no longer railroad and will have to keep a coalition together to stay in power. And suddenly India has an opposition again after them having been absent for so long.
The right policy is to pay the Mexican government very large amounts of money not to let migrants cross their country. Outsource border control to Mexico.
Again, voters want focus to be on the terrible state of our schools and hospitals.
Problem is that this is FPTP, more Tories go Farage than Labour, and more seats are lost to the Tories because the vote splits as it did in 2019.
Its hard to sell "Labour will put up your taxes" when the party saying it have put up your taxes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Democratic_Alliance
https://x.com/FraserNelson/status/1798111926700146929?t=mshkF-bwSIhAAvlUqLBDSg&s=19
That could just be a very careful caveat.
"The Programa Temporal de Regularización Migratoria (PTRM) published on 12 January 2015 in the Diario Oficial de la Federación, is directed at those foreigners who have made their permanent residence in Mexico but due to 'diverse circumstances' did not regularize their stay in the country and find themselves turning to 'third parties' to perform various procedures, including finding employment.[27]
The program is aimed at foreign nationals who entered the country before 9 November 2012.[27] Approved foreigners received through the PTRM the status of 'temporary resident', document valid for four years,[27] and are eligible afterwards for permanent residency.[28] The temporary program ran from 13 January to 18 December 2015.[27]"
So it would be quite the turnaround for them.
How are we going to measure the impact on the polls?
How about the sky tracker, currently Con on 23.4 tonight.
https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-poll-tracker-will-labour-or-the-conservatives-win-12903488
The Labour opposition has a much better result than expected and it will give parties like the LDs a base to really try and get back in the game during the next parliament.
All in all a pretty good result for UK democracy I think. May will have to consult and listen, she can no longer railroad and will have to keep a coalition together to stay in power. And suddenly the UK has an opposition again after them having been absent for so long.'
Reform will win one-time Labour voters in red wall seats. Which will reduce the size of the incoming Labour majority in places like Hartlepools, but not change the result which is that you are getting wiped out in the north east of England...
Nothing has changed I strongly suspect.
If Starmer was crap tonight he needs to up his game. Millions of Lib Dems are depending on him.
An October election would have suggested a rollover SR ahead of supps and a real SR in the Spring.
A July election allows a CSR in the autumn.
In India you generally have broad alliances made up of a number of national and regional parties. There is sometimes some ideological underpinning between the different coalitions but a lot of it is also transactional and what suits those parties at the time. These alliances can shift and change throughout a parliament and who was friends with someone one minute will be friends with the opposition the next. While I expect Modi to be secure for the next few years, because the BJP is by far the largest party in parliament and probably the only one that can really muster a coalition to rule, he can’t just expect to get his way all the time anymore.
Although I’m happy to say Sunak edged it I’m surprised Starmer did so well in those categories . Perhaps expectations were lower for Sunak .
The issue will be in none Red Wall seats where the Brexit party stood down for Bozo. Which means we don’t know how many voters there would have voted for Brexit / Reform but it’s likely to be a few percent and that few percent could cost Rishi a few seats…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2xpcO7tNT4
The Alternative Prime Minister - Panorama
A discussion chaired by current affairs and political programmes commenter and presenter, David Dimbleby, joined by representatives of the press; Mary Goldring, an economic journalist, Peter Jenkins of The Guardian, and Anthony Shrimsley, assistant editor of the Sun, with the Leader of the Opposition, Conservative leader Margaret Thatcher, in which she outlines the policies she hopes will win her party the next general election.
From the moment Sunak threw the punch, look at all the PBers below in this live thread shouting, rebut it now Starmer, rebut it for goodness sake, you need to rebut it right now.
…my God, he’s not rebutted it.
Game on.
Meanwhile in 2010 Clegg aced the debate, soared in the polls, but ended up losing seats.
Conclusion: 🤷
Tory majority 55 on BX.
Starmer is trading on dependable, security, not rocking the boat, and recently noticeably letting his hair go more grey, minus the very regular dye these days. It's an entire profile partly designed to appeal to older voters, and because of this potential damage to that brand it could help the Tories win a few per cent off the Labour lead, and maybe even rescue them a few seats here and there.
Sunak claims he would implement it as planned.
Labour talks about a national care plan but no details. They definitely will look at pay though - they plan social care to be first sector that has some new kind of sectoral national pay structure bargaining thing. We await details.