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  • While not wishing to wade into the private school debate, TIL Alton Convent was renamed Alton School. Such a small world as I used to know a few people that went there, along with a few people to Eggars' (state) just up the road.

    Alton Convent was about a 10 minute drive from my house. I am sure some people can probably work out where I grew up.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    The question is not whether people who use public schools to educate their children are rich or poor, good or evil, deserving or undeserving. The question is whether it is a "them" problem (the responsibility of the individual) or an "us" problem (the responsibility of the collective and hence the nation). For the life of me I can't put it in the latter category. The government is responsible for providing education (I think?) but should not enforce its use. If Casino or anybody else wants to educate his children in public schools, and he can afford it, then the state should not compel him.

    That, to be fair, is not what this is about, unlike in 1987 when Kinnock did stand on a manifesto of outlawing fee paying education.

    It's about realism and incentives and what damage is done along the way.

    This is a bad policy because it will kill marginal schools while leaving Eton untouched.

    But if we say the government shouldn't interfere at all, where does that go? Do we then adopt the TSE idea of vouchers for all which can be doubled for poorer families and topped up by richer ones?

    (FWIW I think that's a much better policy in terms of social mobility than VAT on private schools.)
    Are you saying Eton will pay no VAT?
    We are saying those school in top echelon arn’t struggling financially, nor will they, not least because the increase to cover tax is peanuts to some of those parents, whilst at the same time this policy will kill the ability to pay of aspirational families with less income and in the marginal schools outside the top echelon.

    Overall Net result is a tax policy brings in no extra revenue as increase state school tab is larger than tax brought in, whilst, and this is the kicker, at same time the policy helps divide our country and education even more between the rich and the poor.

    Typical myopic brain dead socialism, they haven’t a clue about inherent vice of every policy they have in their manifesto. And look at the cheerleaders and supporters of it in here - how clever are they? Not very bright is the answer.
    You're saying "the poor" are sending their kids to private schools? Because anecdotally it sounds like it's six-figure earners threatening to Phil Collins it to tax exile.
    Aspirational working class, taking on extra jobs to give their children a chance in life, squeezed middle earners, tradesman, electricians, carpenters, midwives. The voters Labour need for a majority, and I pointed on on previous thread, canvassers of all parties are experiencing a huge backlash to this policy on the doorsteps, to which Labour are in shock and have no response. This is why it’s about to become THE story of this campaign very soon.
    RemindMe! 2 days
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    This kind of abusive response illustrates why it's so difficult to have a sensible discussion here.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    edited June 2

    While not wishing to wade into the private school debate, TIL Alton Convent was renamed Alton School. Such a small world as I used to know a few people that went there, along with a few people to Eggars' (state) just up the road.

    Alton Convent was about a 10 minute drive from my house. I am sure some people can probably work out where I grew up.

    Alton….? Wild guess.
  • “and this is the kicker, at same time the policy helps divide our country and education EVEN MORE between the rich and the poor.”

    I'm glad you're no longer pretending to understand policy, and have now actually come out as what we always knew you were. But credit to you for airing the fact your brain can’t compute very simple things.

    I know you don't actually read what people write most of the time - as is evident by these weird posts where you respond to a point which is obviously nothing to do with the point you're making - but you've got my view quite wrong.

    I'd have preferred to make state schools better without going after private schools.
  • biggles said:

    While not wishing to wade into the private school debate, TIL Alton Convent was renamed Alton School. Such a small world as I used to know a few people that went there, along with a few people to Eggars' (state) just up the road.

    Alton Convent was about a 10 minute drive from my house. I am sure some people can probably work out where I grew up.

    Alton….?
    No, I grew up in a village.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited June 2
    I left the UK because since Brexit the country has been in obvious decline, economically and culturally.

    An opportunity came up in New York and I grabbed at it.
    Manhattan is probably a daft place to migrate to but I figured it would be an adventure for a few years.

    We are now 2.5 years in. Maybe we do another 2.5 years? It’s been positive for my career, although my dirty secret is that I’m rather fed up with my career generally.
    We all miss the UK to some extent, but overall we are happier and don’t regret the move.

    @Casino_Royale happy to give you more detailed advice.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747
    edited June 2

    Chris said:

    PJH said:

    I can't believe there is so much discussion of VAT on private schools. It really does show how unrepresentative of the wider population this board is.

    I think it does show the discussion here is unrepresentative.

    I can understand some people have strong opinions about it if it is going to cost them money, but I can't understand their thinking that if the Tories press the issue it is going to transform the contest. It will just not be important to enough people who are open to switching to the Tories.

    Perhaps an interesting question is whether the people who have Rishi Sunak's ear are similarly unrealistic about this and similar issues.
    I would just comment that @RochdalePioneers confirmed to me when I asked him that it is Lib Dem policy to oppose vat on private school fees so not just conservatives
    Lib Dem opposition to policies on educational fees tends to evaporate after the election has passed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    Rishi Sunak abandoning HS2 was when the last idea of him being vaguely competent disappeared. I do think this will come to be seen as the moment when he abandoned the notion he might have been able to pull things back.

    Even I was furious at that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    edited June 2
    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    The question is not whether people who use public schools to educate their children are rich or poor, good or evil, deserving or undeserving. The question is whether it is a "them" problem (the responsibility of the individual) or an "us" problem (the responsibility of the collective and hence the nation). For the life of me I can't put it in the latter category. The government is responsible for providing education (I think?) but should not enforce its use. If Casino or anybody else wants to educate his children in public schools, and he can afford it, then the state should not compel him.

    That, to be fair, is not what this is about, unlike in 1987 when Kinnock did stand on a manifesto of outlawing fee paying education.

    It's about realism and incentives and what damage is done along the way.

    This is a bad policy because it will kill marginal schools while leaving Eton untouched.

    But if we say the government shouldn't interfere at all, where does that go? Do we then adopt the TSE idea of vouchers for all which can be doubled for poorer families and topped up by richer ones?

    (FWIW I think that's a much better policy in terms of social mobility than VAT on private schools.)
    Are you saying Eton will pay no VAT?
    Eton has two options:

    Option one; to charge the VAT in which case most of their parents will be able to afford it with no trouble at all and they will be unaffected;

    Option two; to meet the additional requirement for VAT out of their income from endowments, which is sufficiently large that they could probably afford not to charge fees at all for around 50 years.

    My guess is they will have some combination of the two.

    The irony is, if they go for option two and at the same time are forced to become a corporation, they will probably end up running at a constant loss as a result and so pay no corporation tax.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407

    I left the UK because since Brexit the country has been in obvious decline, economically and culturally.

    An opportunity came up in New York and I grabbed at it.
    Manhattan is probably a daft place to migrate to but I figured it would be an adventure for a few years.

    We are now 2.5 years in. Maybe we do another 2.5 years? It’s been positive for my career, although my dirty secret is that I’m rather fed up with my career generally.
    We all miss the UK to some extent, but overall we are happier and don’t regret the move.

    @Casino_Royale happy to give you more detailed advice.

    Thanks, @Gardenwalker. I will reach out
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    edited June 2
    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    This kind of abusive response illustrates why it's so difficult to have a sensible discussion here.
    I might object to someone telling me I'm wrong - solely for reasons of face and politics
    - when I'm privy to the inside story from the Trustees and the Headmaster and it directly affects my son, his teachers (people I know) and the local community.

    Just a thought.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    This kind of abusive response illustrates why it's so difficult to have a sensible discussion here.
    I might object to someone telling me I'm wrong - solely for reasons of face and politics
    - when I'm privy to the inside story from the Trustees and the Headmaster and it directly affects my son, his teachers (people I know) and the local community.

    Just a thought.
    Just stop being abusive to people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    edited June 2

    I left the UK because since Brexit the country has been in obvious decline, economically and culturally.

    An opportunity came up in New York and I grabbed at it.
    Manhattan is probably a daft place to migrate to but I figured it would be an adventure for a few years.

    We are now 2.5 years in. Maybe we do another 2.5 years? It’s been positive for my career, although my dirty secret is that I’m rather fed up with my career generally.
    We all miss the UK to some extent, but overall we are happier and don’t regret the move.

    @Casino_Royale happy to give you more detailed advice.

    Has it? No more than the rest of the West, including the US, is in relative decline to the Far East and South Asia economically and Africa population wise in particular. Indeed I would say France and Italy and Japan are in greater relative decline than the UK is.

    That said Manhattan is still a great place to be for your career and a top global city
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    Sorry, I had a look at their website.
    You should be.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    The question is not whether people who use public schools to educate their children are rich or poor, good or evil, deserving or undeserving. The question is whether it is a "them" problem (the responsibility of the individual) or an "us" problem (the responsibility of the collective and hence the nation). For the life of me I can't put it in the latter category. The government is responsible for providing education (I think?) but should not enforce its use. If Casino or anybody else wants to educate his children in public schools, and he can afford it, then the state should not compel him.

    That, to be fair, is not what this is about, unlike in 1987 when Kinnock did stand on a manifesto of outlawing fee paying education.

    It's about realism and incentives and what damage is done along the way.

    This is a bad policy because it will kill marginal schools while leaving Eton untouched.

    But if we say the government shouldn't interfere at all, where does that go? Do we then adopt the TSE idea of vouchers for all which can be doubled for poorer families and topped up by richer ones?

    (FWIW I think that's a much better policy in terms of social mobility than VAT on private schools.)
    Are you saying Eton will pay no VAT?
    Eton has two options:

    Option one; to charge the VAT in which case most of their parents will be able to afford it with no trouble at all and they will be unaffected;

    Option two; to meet the additional requirement for VAT out of their income from endowments, which is sufficiently large that they could probably afford not to charge fees at all for around 50 years.

    My guess is they will have some combination of the two.

    The irony is, if they go for option two and at the same time are forced to become a corporation, they will probably end up running at a constant loss as a result and so pay no corporation tax.
    You forgot option 3, with is a build on option 2 in which a raft of tax advisory practices redesign them into a nest of service companies within service companies, and avoid the VAT too.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,493

    Allies of Diane Abbott say they can see a World in which she doesn't stand as Labour MP for Hackney North

    They say 'she has made her point' - she has succeeded into forcing Starmer to back down - and could now go under her own terms

    They suggest Diane is thinking about it in the run-up to the deadline on Tuesday. No word yet this morning from Diane herself

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1797194478672859398

    If this report is true, she has clearly accepted the 30 pieces of silver. And so the saddest of ends for her, abandoning her cause and comrades for self gain. At least when someone sells out on point of principle or ideology you can half forgive them, but not for self gain taking whatever it is they offered her.

    Vanilla Starmerite now takes her seat, and Labour take another stride to being a disastrous echo chamber of a government.

    Incidentally, Sunday Times has Labour MPs telling them they have been offered a gong and place in House of Lords to stand down, Cooper in TV today called every single one of them a liar.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    PJH said:

    I can't believe there is so much discussion of VAT on private schools. It really does show how unrepresentative of the wider population this board is.

    I think it does show the discussion here is unrepresentative.

    I can understand some people have strong opinions about it if it is going to cost them money, but I can't understand their thinking that if the Tories press the issue it is going to transform the contest. It will just not be important to enough people who are open to switching to the Tories.

    Perhaps an interesting question is whether the people who have Rishi Sunak's ear are similarly unrealistic about this and similar issues.
    I would just comment that @RochdalePioneers confirmed to me when I asked him that it is Lib Dem policy to oppose vat on private school fees so not just conservatives
    Lib Dem opposition to policies on educational fees tends to evaporate after the election has passed.
    Are you questioning @RochdalePioneers integrity
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,977
    edited June 2
    BBC News - Election fraud claims being reviewed by police
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1eewd5xgjgo

    How is this any different from Tories for Nick Palmer that famously didn't do him any good in the end?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,602

    I left the UK because since Brexit the country has been in obvious decline, economically and culturally.

    That's an ambiguous statement. Is it that the decline became obvious to you because Brexit caused you to reassess things, or do you think the decline was caused by Brexit?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Independent schools are actually one of the best things about the UK.

    I am forced to agree with the VAT policy on grounds of fairness, but I continue to harbour a lot of reservations. I don’t believe it will raise any money.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    edited June 2
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    PJH said:

    I can't believe there is so much discussion of VAT on private schools. It really does show how unrepresentative of the wider population this board is.

    I think it does show the discussion here is unrepresentative.

    I can understand some people have strong opinions about it if it is going to cost them money, but I can't understand their thinking that if the Tories press the issue it is going to transform the contest. It will just not be important to enough people who are open to switching to the Tories.

    Perhaps an interesting question is whether the people who have Rishi Sunak's ear are similarly unrealistic about this and similar issues.
    I would just comment that @RochdalePioneers confirmed to me when I asked him that it is Lib Dem policy to oppose vat on private school fees so not just conservatives
    Lib Dem opposition to policies on educational fees tends to evaporate after the election has passed.
    Very droll.

    The fact is that when it comes to VAT on private schools the Lib Dems don’t have particularly strong views. It’s not a defining policy issue for them. Whether the MPs oppose or just abstain in the commons remains to be seen.

    In other news I have an observation to report about UK vs French levels of cheerfulness and some thoughts about the weather’s effect on the election, which I’ll share later when we’ve unpacked the car.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    Allies of Diane Abbott say they can see a World in which she doesn't stand as Labour MP for Hackney North

    They say 'she has made her point' - she has succeeded into forcing Starmer to back down - and could now go under her own terms

    They suggest Diane is thinking about it in the run-up to the deadline on Tuesday. No word yet this morning from Diane herself

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1797194478672859398

    If this report is true, she has clearly accepted the 30 pieces of silver. And so the saddest of ends for her, abandoning her cause and comrades for self gain. At least when someone sells out on point of principle or ideology you can half forgive them, but not for self gain taking whatever it is they offered her.

    Vanilla Starmerite now takes her seat, and Labour take another stride to being a disastrous echo chamber of a government.

    Incidentally, Sunday Times has Labour MPs telling them they have been offered a gong and place in House of Lords to stand down, Cooper in TV today called every single one of them a liar.
    Offering peerages presumably has limited appeal when Lords reform is on the cards.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938
    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    Yes, and they're wrong, as I've repeatedly pointed out, doing my own sums on several threads. Ad infinitum, in fact.

    Rather than rehashing my figures for the umpteenth time, I'll simply point you in the direction of the Guardian article that came out a week ago that arrived at a figure more or less identical to mine -

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries

    TL;DR it starts off positive for the treasury as existing kids filter through the system, but fewer and fewer start at age 5, leading to year on year decline in numbers until it becomes net negative.

    I believe the Guardian figures because they're near identical to the calculations I started making in April and have posted repeatedly on this site.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    Anyway, some good news:

    Estimated 9.91 GW of electrical power from solar today, 31% of demand (and that's while using it to recharge out pumped hydro stations during the day).

    Must be close to a record, surely?

    If not -that's even better news. Shows we are still decarbonising our grid.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    This kind of abusive response illustrates why it's so difficult to have a sensible discussion here.
    I might object to someone telling me I'm wrong - solely for reasons of face and politics
    - when I'm privy to the inside story from the Trustees and the Headmaster and it directly affects my son, his teachers (people I know) and the local community.

    Just a thought.
    Just stop being abusive to people.
    No, fuck you.

    If people try and tell me I'm lying, dismiss my concerns, or dismiss the reality of what is DIRECTLY AFFECTING MY FAMILY AND FRIENDS then you expect an intemperate response. Every time

    Since I never see you, ever, objecting to when anyone digs, ridicules or insults me - only ever chipping in at my response to such goals- I can seriously say, fuck you.

    You're a nasty partisan little sniper.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889

    algarkirk said:

    ToryJim said:

    DM_Andy said:

    stodge said:

    eek said:

    Farooq said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    As we saw in the London Mayoral election, there is a hyper sensitivity to "rumour" and "gossip" put out as tweets. We had some journo on the Thursday evening claiming "a source at CCHQ was very confident Hall had won". No evidence, just speculation and to be fair CCHQ quickly stamped that out.

    A lot of it was in my view mischief-making by those opposed to Khan - whether there was an active attmept to manipulate the markets I don't know but of course we had no exit poll as we will have after the GE. 1992 tells us exit polls aren't foolproof but they are a good indication of the direction of travel and the scale of the victory/defeat.

    It's also helpful for those playing the Next Conservative Leader market - you might be looking at a different set of runners and riders if 50 MPs survive rather than 100, 150 or 200.

    Will the debates move the markets significantly? Recent experience suggests not.

    The London market was quite illiquid. The GE will have loads more money piling into it. That should reduce volatility.
    Yet again the Brexit referendum vote where the odds went to 14-1.

    That is the perfect example of a liquid market with incorrect information driving it
    I'm not sure a market with more liquidity reduces volatility - I think it depends on the herd mentality. IF we got an exit poll, as we did in 2017, which suggested something outside the range of many of the immediate pre-election polls, you would see everyone rushing to protect/enhance their positions and that would ramifications through the associated markets.

    The first results might not help as they would be in strong Labour areas - remember how the swing in Sunderland South in 1997 was much smaller than the polls were suggesting but within an hour we were seeing an 18% swing in Crosby. Until we get a better idea of who will be declaring and when it'll be difficult to judge the point at which we'll be seeing the wood for the trees.
    The new boundaries will create a degree of uncertainty too. I asked a while ago for suggestions of seats which might declare early, have minimal boundary changes and be good pointers to what will follow. I had some good responses too, which I should collate somewhere.
    Here's the list of constituencies with unchanged boundaries.

    Altrincham and Sale West, Bootle, Bradford West, Bromsgrove, Burton, Cannock Chase, Cheadle, Chesterfield, Coventry North West, Crawley, Derby North, Derby South, East Worthing and Shoreham, Epping Forest, Erewash, Forest of Dean, Gillingham and Rainham, Gosport, Gravesham, Great Yarmouth, Hartlepool, Havant, High Peak, Hove, Hyndburn, Ipswich, Islington North, Lincoln, Macclesfield, New Forest East, New Forest West, North Devon, North Warwickshire, Nuneaton, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Oldham West and Royton, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Portsmouth North, Portsmouth South, Scarborough and Whitby, South Holland and The Deepings, Southampton Itchen, Southampton Test, Spelthorne, St Helens North, Stalybridge and Hyde, Stretford and Urmston, Sunderland Central, Sutton Coldfield, Tooting, Tunbridge Wells, Walthamstow, West Lancashire, West Worcestershire, Wigan, Worcester, Wyre Forest, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, Central Ayrshire, East Renfrewshire, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Kilmarnock and Loudoun, Midlothian, North Ayrshire and Arran, Orkney and Shetland, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Ynys Môn

    Four of them are unchanged but with expanded names.
    Burton will be Burton & Uttoxeter
    Hove will be Hove & Portslade
    North Warwickshire will be North Warwickshire & Bedworth
    Oldham West & Royton will be Oldham West, Chadderton & Royton


    It's Hove Actually, isn't it? ;)
    Haha. I do find the trend of ever increasing constituency names to be an annoyance. I suspect it comes from the concept of erasure whereby if you aren’t being utterly fawned over you are by implication being eradicated. It’s utter nonsense and so if there’s a settlement within a constituency that doesn’t form part of the constituency name someone will get on their high horse about it being ignored. So eventually the boundary commission caves and expands the name. What’s worse is the candidates then decide to proudly represent not just the name of the constituency but all the villages hamlets and farmsteads not forming part of the name.
    Among the name losses is Penrith and Border (my seat). The furthest part of 'Border' from Penrith is about 50 miles, and the last 10 miles you have to walk it in tough terrain. It was Tory and Rory, and we have not only lost the name and the seat but also the party it always voted for and Rory along with it. So it's with a bit of sadness I shall be voting Labour in Penrith and Solway this time.
    You have had some good MPs; Willie Whitelaw, David Maclean and Rory Stewart. Maybe your next one will be equally good.
    Dr Neil Hudson, the Penrith and Border current MP, is in the frame for Epping Forest selection tomorow night. His parents also live locally
    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1797227855715139789
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    edited June 2
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    Why not? Most of them are. They just rarely get picked up on it because they have positioned themselves as oracles.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747
    TimS said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    PJH said:

    I can't believe there is so much discussion of VAT on private schools. It really does show how unrepresentative of the wider population this board is.

    I think it does show the discussion here is unrepresentative.

    I can understand some people have strong opinions about it if it is going to cost them money, but I can't understand their thinking that if the Tories press the issue it is going to transform the contest. It will just not be important to enough people who are open to switching to the Tories.

    Perhaps an interesting question is whether the people who have Rishi Sunak's ear are similarly unrealistic about this and similar issues.
    I would just comment that @RochdalePioneers confirmed to me when I asked him that it is Lib Dem policy to oppose vat on private school fees so not just conservatives
    Lib Dem opposition to policies on educational fees tends to evaporate after the election has passed.
    Very droll.

    The fact is that when it comes to VAT on private schools the Lib Dems don’t have particularly strong views. It
    That sounds plausible. Indeed, if anyone discovers an issue that the Lib Dems do have particularly strong views on these days, it would be interesting to hear about it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174

    BBC News - Election fraud claims being reviewed by police
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1eewd5xgjgo

    How is this any different from Tories for Nick Palmer that famously didn't do him any good in the end?

    I must have missed that - was that in 2015?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    This kind of abusive response illustrates why it's so difficult to have a sensible discussion here.
    I might object to someone telling me I'm wrong - solely for reasons of face and politics
    - when I'm privy to the inside story from the Trustees and the Headmaster and it directly affects my son, his teachers (people I know) and the local community.

    Just a thought.
    I would just comment that as my son is in senior management in the private sector he is witnessing the same effect
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited June 2

    Allies of Diane Abbott say they can see a World in which she doesn't stand as Labour MP for Hackney North

    They say 'she has made her point' - she has succeeded into forcing Starmer to back down - and could now go under her own terms

    They suggest Diane is thinking about it in the run-up to the deadline on Tuesday. No word yet this morning from Diane herself

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1797194478672859398

    If this report is true, she has clearly accepted the 30 pieces of silver. And so the saddest of ends for her, abandoning her cause and comrades for self gain. At least when someone sells out on point of principle or ideology you can half forgive them, but not for self gain taking whatever it is they offered her.

    Vanilla Starmerite now takes her seat, and Labour take another stride to being a disastrous echo chamber of a government.

    Incidentally, Sunday Times has Labour MPs telling them they have been offered a gong and place in House of Lords to stand down, Cooper in TV today called every single one of them a liar.
    She said she wasn’t aware of this . Big difference . You’ve also accused Abbott of something . She might decide to leave parliament and not go into the HOL even if the story has any legs .
  • biggles said:

    Allies of Diane Abbott say they can see a World in which she doesn't stand as Labour MP for Hackney North

    They say 'she has made her point' - she has succeeded into forcing Starmer to back down - and could now go under her own terms

    They suggest Diane is thinking about it in the run-up to the deadline on Tuesday. No word yet this morning from Diane herself

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1797194478672859398

    If this report is true, she has clearly accepted the 30 pieces of silver. And so the saddest of ends for her, abandoning her cause and comrades for self gain. At least when someone sells out on point of principle or ideology you can half forgive them, but not for self gain taking whatever it is they offered her.

    Vanilla Starmerite now takes her seat, and Labour take another stride to being a disastrous echo chamber of a government.

    Incidentally, Sunday Times has Labour MPs telling them they have been offered a gong and place in House of Lords to stand down, Cooper in TV today called every single one of them a liar.
    Offering peerages presumably has limited appeal when Lords reform is on the cards.
    Is Abbott opposed to the HoL? I wonder if she'd be a good vote to get it passed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    biggles said:

    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    The question is not whether people who use public schools to educate their children are rich or poor, good or evil, deserving or undeserving. The question is whether it is a "them" problem (the responsibility of the individual) or an "us" problem (the responsibility of the collective and hence the nation). For the life of me I can't put it in the latter category. The government is responsible for providing education (I think?) but should not enforce its use. If Casino or anybody else wants to educate his children in public schools, and he can afford it, then the state should not compel him.

    That, to be fair, is not what this is about, unlike in 1987 when Kinnock did stand on a manifesto of outlawing fee paying education.

    It's about realism and incentives and what damage is done along the way.

    This is a bad policy because it will kill marginal schools while leaving Eton untouched.

    But if we say the government shouldn't interfere at all, where does that go? Do we then adopt the TSE idea of vouchers for all which can be doubled for poorer families and topped up by richer ones?

    (FWIW I think that's a much better policy in terms of social mobility than VAT on private schools.)
    Are you saying Eton will pay no VAT?
    Eton has two options:

    Option one; to charge the VAT in which case most of their parents will be able to afford it with no trouble at all and they will be unaffected;

    Option two; to meet the additional requirement for VAT out of their income from endowments, which is sufficiently large that they could probably afford not to charge fees at all for around 50 years.

    My guess is they will have some combination of the two.

    The irony is, if they go for option two and at the same time are forced to become a corporation, they will probably end up running at a constant loss as a result and so pay no corporation tax.
    You forgot option 3, with is a build on option 2 in which a raft of tax advisory practices redesign them into a nest of service companies within service companies, and avoid the VAT too.
    That is also a possibility, one not readily available to poorer schools.

    This is, in sum, the reason why I think it's a bad policy. The actual targets that *should* be being taken out - the public schools providing graduates with an unshakeable but tragically misplaced belief in their own brilliance - will not be hurt.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,977
    edited June 2
    kyf_100 said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    Yes, and they're wrong, as I've repeatedly pointed out, doing my own sums on several threads. Ad infinitum, in fact.

    Rather than rehashing my figures for the umpteenth time, I'll simply point you in the direction of the Guardian article that came out a week ago that arrived at a figure more or less identical to mine -

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries

    TL;DR it starts off positive for the treasury as existing kids filter through the system, but fewer and fewer start at age 5, leading to year on year decline in numbers until it becomes net negative.

    I believe the Guardian figures because they're near identical to the calculations I started making in April and have posted repeatedly on this site.

    Lets be generous and say £1.5bn turns out to be true, it actually peanuts in terms of tax take. You could do a tiny bit of fiscal drag, fiddle about with council tax bands etc and get more income with virtually no risk to anything.

    It is a first and foremost an idealogical policy.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    ydoethur said:

    Anyway, some good news:

    Estimated 9.91 GW of electrical power from solar today, 31% of demand (and that's while using it to recharge out pumped hydro stations during the day).

    Must be close to a record, surely?

    If not -that's even better news. Shows we are still decarbonising our grid.

    Solar on every new build or refurbed house or business in the country seems like a sensible regulation at this point, and worthy of a subsidy.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    Theory encounters reality then yes
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    Yes.

    That's not based on any expertise in tax but it *is* based on working with around 20 private schools in various consultancy and tutoring roles.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Chris said:

    TimS said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    PJH said:

    I can't believe there is so much discussion of VAT on private schools. It really does show how unrepresentative of the wider population this board is.

    I think it does show the discussion here is unrepresentative.

    I can understand some people have strong opinions about it if it is going to cost them money, but I can't understand their thinking that if the Tories press the issue it is going to transform the contest. It will just not be important to enough people who are open to switching to the Tories.

    Perhaps an interesting question is whether the people who have Rishi Sunak's ear are similarly unrealistic about this and similar issues.
    I would just comment that @RochdalePioneers confirmed to me when I asked him that it is Lib Dem policy to oppose vat on private school fees so not just conservatives
    Lib Dem opposition to policies on educational fees tends to evaporate after the election has passed.
    Very droll.

    The fact is that when it comes to VAT on private schools the Lib Dems don’t have particularly strong views. It
    That sounds plausible. Indeed, if anyone discovers an issue that the Lib Dems do have particularly strong views on these days, it would be interesting to hear about it.
    I understand they have sudden strong feelings on banning paddle boards…
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    This kind of abusive response illustrates why it's so difficult to have a sensible discussion here.
    I might object to someone telling me I'm wrong - solely for reasons of face and politics
    - when I'm privy to the inside story from the Trustees and the Headmaster and it directly affects my son, his teachers (people I know) and the local community.

    Just a thought.
    Just stop being abusive to people.
    No, fuck you.

    If people try and tell me I'm lying, dismiss my concerns, or dismiss the reality of what is DIRECTLY AFFECTING MY FAMILY AND FRIENDS then you expect an intemperate response. Every time

    Since I never see you, ever, objecting to when anyone digs, ridicules or insults me - only ever chipping in at my response to such goals- I can seriously say, fuck you.

    You're a nasty partisan little sniper.
    No, I just said you should stop being abusive. Try to express your concerns and so on without continually effing, blinding, "wankfucking" and generally making personal attacks on people you disagree with.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,977
    tlg86 said:

    BBC News - Election fraud claims being reviewed by police
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1eewd5xgjgo

    How is this any different from Tories for Nick Palmer that famously didn't do him any good in the end?

    I must have missed that - was that in 2015?
    Yes. It was a group of local constituents who Nick said were historically Tory voters but thought he was better choice for MP and so they went around as part of the campaign as Tories For Nick Palmer.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    Sorry, I had a look at their website.
    You should be.
    Fees With Effect From 1 Septemeber 2024:

    We got taught how to spell at my Scottish comprehensive
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    Yes.

    That's not based on any expertise in tax but it *is* based on working with around 20 private schools in various consultancy and tutoring roles.
    And can you point to an alternative estimate that you think is nearer to the mark?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    BBC News - Election fraud claims being reviewed by police
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1eewd5xgjgo

    How is this any different from Tories for Nick Palmer that famously didn't do him any good in the end?

    It isn’t. Unfortunately the endowing of Tories with cosmic voodoo such that anything they try must be shut down lest it prove successful, coupled with hard of thinking clicktivists mean that lots of gullible idiots think the candidate is trying to masquerade as something he isn’t. That is clearly not what he is doing, as anyone with functioning eye and brain can understand but unfortunately online users are not the most thoughtful of actors. As you say it isn’t going to save him as anyone with half a brain would work out, but sadly we live in an era that prefers shutting down things you can’t understand rather than seeking to figure it out.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,493

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    PJH said:

    I can't believe there is so much discussion of VAT on private schools. It really does show how unrepresentative of the wider population this board is.

    I think it does show the discussion here is unrepresentative.

    I can understand some people have strong opinions about it if it is going to cost them money, but I can't understand their thinking that if the Tories press the issue it is going to transform the contest. It will just not be important to enough people who are open to switching to the Tories.

    Perhaps an interesting question is whether the people who have Rishi Sunak's ear are similarly unrealistic about this and similar issues.
    I would just comment that @RochdalePioneers confirmed to me when I asked him that it is Lib Dem policy to oppose vat on private school fees so not just conservatives
    Lib Dem opposition to policies on educational fees tends to evaporate after the election has passed.
    Are you questioning @RochdalePioneers integrity
    I must have missed it - why has Rochdale change their avatar to some scary looking sociopath Doomsday prepper?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    edited June 2

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    Let's get a few things clear.

    The two schools the Telegraph has highlighted have been struggling for a while. The VAT announcement can't have helped, but as a coup de grace, not killing a fundamentally sound institution.

    Lots of other factors- cost of living, falling numbers of children and international market factors- are also issues.

    Independent schools could, you know, cut their coats according to their cloth. They don't have to pass on the increased costs, and their record in recent decades has been to spend like sailors and charge accordingly, because they've been able to. The sort of economies needed are the sort that the state has been demanding of most schools for years.

    And whilst it's never nice to have to find a new job, I'm pretty confident that any redundant teacher will find a job in the state sector. It's really short of people right now.

    A final thought experiment. Suppose a government were to announce the reverse: finding VAT exemption for independent schools by cutting mental health support workers for state schools. Does anyone really want to go into bat for that?



  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s a straw poll

    Of my ten best friends

    Two have moved to America
    One has moved to France
    One moved to America but is now moving to Spain
    One is in the process of moving to Thailand

    That’s five out of ten. All late middle aged men who either earn good money (and pay the tax on it) or they earn amazing money (and pay insane tax)

    All gone or going from the UK

    Did they all vote for Brexit before fucking off?
    No

    Four out of five are lefties
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    Yes.

    That's not based on any expertise in tax but it *is* based on working with around 20 private schools in various consultancy and tutoring roles.
    And can you point to an alternative estimate that you think is nearer to the mark?
    I can point to the false assumptions they're making on retention. As several others already have on this thread. That's all I really need to show their estimates are rubbish.

    As for alternatives, with any policy it would be at best guesswork. However, I would say there's a realistic chance that it would lead to greater expenditure on extra students in the state sector than it will raise in additional revenue.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    Yes.

    That's not based on any expertise in tax but it *is* based on working with around 20 private schools in various consultancy and tutoring roles.
    And can you point to an alternative estimate that you think is nearer to the mark?
    That Guardian article in précis: " I have heard that a leading industry consultant advises schools to budget for a near 25% decline by 2030"

    So, the accepted estimate is to just ask someone who makes money from private education, and believe whatever they say.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,354

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    Let's get a few things clear.

    The two schools the Telegraph has highlighted have been struggling for a while. The VAT announcement can't have helped, but as a coup de grace, not killing a fundamentally sound institution.

    Lots of other factors- cost of living, falling numbers of children and international market factors- are also issues.

    Independent schools could, you know, cut their coats according to their cloth. They don't have to pass on the increased costs, and their record in recent decades has been to spend like sailors and charge accordingly, because they've been able to. The sort of economies needed are the sort that the state has been demanding of most schools for years.

    And whilst it's never nice to have to find a new job, I'm pretty confident that any redundant teacher will find a job in the state sector. It's really short of people right now.

    A final thought experiment. Suppose a government were to announce the reverse: finding VAT exemption for independent schools by cutting mental health support workers for state schools. Does anyone really want to go into bat for that?



    Would be a waste of time.

    The mental health services have all gone anyway.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    This kind of abusive response illustrates why it's so difficult to have a sensible discussion here.
    I might object to someone telling me I'm wrong - solely for reasons of face and politics
    - when I'm privy to the inside story from the Trustees and the Headmaster and it directly affects my son, his teachers (people I know) and the local community.

    Just a thought.
    Just stop being abusive to people.
    No, fuck you.

    If people try and tell me I'm lying, dismiss my concerns, or dismiss the reality of what is DIRECTLY AFFECTING MY FAMILY AND FRIENDS then you expect an intemperate response. Every time

    Since I never see you, ever, objecting to when anyone digs, ridicules or insults me - only ever chipping in at my response to such goals- I can seriously say, fuck you.

    You're a nasty partisan little sniper.
    No, I just said you should stop being abusive. Try to express your concerns and so on without continually effing, blinding, "wankfucking" and generally making personal attacks on people you disagree with.
    I will attack any of those who abuse or insult me, cast aspirations on my integrity, or take partisan sides in any of the same, I.e. attacking me without attacking those who don't do the same. You can count on it.

    For you? Congratulations: you win the sanctimonious little shit of the day award.

    As far as I'm concerned you're the "male" version of Heathener.

    Away with you.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,903
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    But if children leaving the private sector are properly dispersed, then that means only two or three extra children for each state-sector school. Why is that an extra cost for the system?

    And similarly teachers. There is currently a shortage of teachers in the state system, apparently. No problem then... any teacher now in the private sector can work in the state sector instead. No threat of unemployment there.

    In the example cited, numbers have fallen from before covid until now. Remind me please.... Precisely when was this proposal of Labour's announced to the public? And if numbers were falling even before then, might not other factors have been at work?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747
    kyf_100 said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    Yes, and they're wrong, as I've repeatedly pointed out, doing my own sums on several threads. Ad infinitum, in fact.

    Rather than rehashing my figures for the umpteenth time, I'll simply point you in the direction of the Guardian article that came out a week ago that arrived at a figure more or less identical to mine -

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
    Thanks.

    The estimate I can see there - not the Guardian's, but just attributed to an unnamed "leading industry consultant" - is here:
    I have heard that a leading industry consultant advises schools to budget for a near 25% decline by 2030. Notably, at a 25% decline, the net impact becomes negative as the cost of educating private school leavers in the state system would exceed all VAT gains.

    So your estimate is that the net effect would be neutral?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    tlg86 said:

    BBC News - Election fraud claims being reviewed by police
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1eewd5xgjgo

    How is this any different from Tories for Nick Palmer that famously didn't do him any good in the end?

    I must have missed that - was that in 2015?
    Tories for Palmer made their first appearance 2005-10. He was very narrowly defeated in that election.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    edited June 2
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    Sorry, I had a look at their website.
    You should be.
    Fees With Effect From 1 Septemeber 2024:

    We got taught how to spell at my Scottish comprehensive
    Deleted. Not worth it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    The ST story of the £450m that will have to be repaid by the SNP government just appals me but my disgust goes far wider than the SNP government.

    This money could have been spent on anti-poverty (principally programs designed to overcome barriers to work) and programs to boost economic growth. Programs are still eligible for the grants provided that they are made this month (despite the program officially ending in 2020).

    The EU said, in 2019, that there had been 27 suspensions of payments across the whole EU because of failures to adequately audit and vouch the spending of the money. 19% of all such suspensions have been in Scotland, a country of 5.4m out of more than 500m (before the UK left).

    Both Douglas Ross and Jackie Baillie are shouting this morning how shocking this is and it is indeed shocking. But:
    * if Scotland had a civil service worthy of the name this simply would not have happened.
    * where were Ross and Baillie when the prior suspensions happened? Why were the alarm bells not ringing loud?
    *Why have our local authorities of all stripes not been competing vigorously for that money in their areas?
    * What Ministers were responsible for these multiple failures and lack of focus and what consequences, if any, did they face? Do we even know who they are?
    * What is happening right now across government and local authorities to ensure as much of this money as possible is applied for by the end of the month?
    * Why were opposition politicians dependent upon a story in the ST based on a report to discover there was even a problem here? What the hell do shadow Ministers actually do with their time?

    What this shows is that our Scottish government is utterly incompetent at every level, both Ministerial and administrative. As are our opposition parties. As are our local authorities. As, indeed, are our third sector who should have been promoting qualifying projects. This is not just a stick with which to beat the SNP, it is a condemnation of our entire system of governance, social society and democratic accountability.

    Working in education, I feel your pain.
    There is a weird thing in some parts of local and regional government - they seem upset with people applying for lottery and other funding which doesn’t go through them. To the point of hindering an application.

    A relative was involved with a lottery application by a sports club for money to rebuild a shack of a clubhouse with a proper structure.

    The local council spent a surprising amount of time and effort trying to screw up the application.
    West Oxfordshire District Council?
    How did you guess?
    My inner Jeremy Clarkson said something...
    It was utterly weird. They had a lottery application into to put a decent building in place of a collection of odds and ends.

    No council money. No increase in usage. Locals in favour - would look a lot tidier, better and they would using it.

    New building would have met all the guidelines and rules on safeguarding and accessibility - kids changing rooms, disabled access and toilets.

    Then the council tried to stop it…
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    edited June 2
    I wrote a long post about the private school debate a few days ago, so will resist repeating it. But I'd like to reinforce three points from it:

    1. I find it offensive that many of the private school advocates are so sneeringly contemptuous about a 'state education'. Many of us are very proud of our comprehensive schools and the excellent academic and social education they provided.
    2. There's a good number of private schools that offer a pretty poor quality of education, but the parents are seemingly unaware of it.
    3. I find it grossly offensive that those who do not sent their kids to private schools, either because they can't afford it or prefer the state sector, are said to be lacking in aspiration for their kids. Were my parents still alive, they'd be fuming at this suggestion.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    Let's get a few things clear.

    The two schools the Telegraph has highlighted have been struggling for a while. The VAT announcement can't have helped, but as a coup de grace, not killing a fundamentally sound institution.

    Lots of other factors- cost of living, falling numbers of children and international market factors- are also issues.

    Independent schools could, you know, cut their coats according to their cloth. They don't have to pass on the increased costs, and their record in recent decades has been to spend like sailors and charge accordingly, because they've been able to. The sort of economies needed are the sort that the state has been demanding of most schools for years.

    And whilst it's never nice to have to find a new job, I'm pretty confident that any redundant teacher will find a job in the state sector. It's really short of people right now.

    A final thought experiment. Suppose a government were to announce the reverse: finding VAT exemption for independent schools by cutting mental health support workers for state schools. Does anyone really want to go into bat for that?



    The difference is I am witnessing it actually happening within our own community and as much as you try to defend the policy it is flawed and will not raise the money expected and as I say by Autumn the figures will not be good for the labour government
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,977
    JohnO said:

    tlg86 said:

    BBC News - Election fraud claims being reviewed by police
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1eewd5xgjgo

    How is this any different from Tories for Nick Palmer that famously didn't do him any good in the end?

    I must have missed that - was that in 2015?
    Tories for Palmer made their first appearance 2005-10. He was very narrowly defeated in that election.
    Crickey was it that far back.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    EPG said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    Yes.

    That's not based on any expertise in tax but it *is* based on working with around 20 private schools in various consultancy and tutoring roles.
    And can you point to an alternative estimate that you think is nearer to the mark?
    That Guardian article in précis: " I have heard that a leading industry consultant advises schools to budget for a near 25% decline by 2030"

    So, the accepted estimate is to just ask someone who makes money from private education, and believe whatever they say.
    Experts tend to make money out of the thing they are experts in.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,213
    edited June 2

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    This kind of abusive response illustrates why it's so difficult to have a sensible discussion here.
    I might object to someone telling me I'm wrong - solely for reasons of face and politics
    - when I'm privy to the inside story from the Trustees and the Headmaster and it directly affects my son, his teachers (people I know) and the local community.

    Just a thought.
    Just stop being abusive to people.
    No, fuck you.

    If people try and tell me I'm lying, dismiss my concerns, or dismiss the reality of what is DIRECTLY AFFECTING MY FAMILY AND FRIENDS then you expect an intemperate response. Every time

    Since I never see you, ever, objecting to when anyone digs, ridicules or insults me - only ever chipping in at my response to such goals- I can seriously say, fuck you.

    You're a nasty partisan little sniper.
    You are reacting to a risk to your family that you believe (probably correctly) is coming your way. My concern is pensions, which I think is going to be used as a political football once again, e.g. perhaps by limiting the mitigating action you can take regarding your high marginal rate of income tax and making changes to defined contribution pensions which will even more favour the public sector versus the private sector.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    This kind of abusive response illustrates why it's so difficult to have a sensible discussion here.
    I might object to someone telling me I'm wrong - solely for reasons of face and politics
    - when I'm privy to the inside story from the Trustees and the Headmaster and it directly affects my son, his teachers (people I know) and the local community.

    Just a thought.
    Just stop being abusive to people.
    No, fuck you.

    If people try and tell me I'm lying, dismiss my concerns, or dismiss the reality of what is DIRECTLY AFFECTING MY FAMILY AND FRIENDS then you expect an intemperate response. Every time

    Since I never see you, ever, objecting to when anyone digs, ridicules or insults me - only ever chipping in at my response to such goals- I can seriously say, fuck you.

    You're a nasty partisan little sniper.
    No, I just said you should stop being abusive. Try to express your concerns and so on without continually effing, blinding, "wankfucking" and generally making personal attacks on people you disagree with.
    I will attack any of those who abuse or insult me, cast aspirations on my integrity, or take partisan sides in any of the same, I.e. attacking me without attacking those who don't do the same. You can count on it.

    For you? Congratulations: you win the sanctimonious little shit of the day award.

    As far as I'm concerned you're the "male" version of Heathener.

    Away with you.
    You do realise that every four-letter word you hurl at me only makes my point more obvious?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    TimS said:

    eek said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    The reality is that an awful lot of people could up sticks and move abroad but most people don’t.

    If you actually upped sticks and moved abroad I would actually be impressed as I suspect you are one of the majority who threaten to do it but won’t / can’t for multiple reasons
    This thread is making me want to do it more and more.
    I was briefly tempted after Brexit but inertia is a powerful thing.
    We moved to Ireland in late 2022, which is probably the easiest country for a Briton to move to, and it's been a right royal pain in the arse. We did it for pull reasons, mainly to live closer to my wife's family, and I think it would be a lot harder to do for push reasons (that didn't involve escaping totalitarianism).

    I would advise very strongly that people move for positive reasons about their destination, rather than negative reasons about their origin. You'll always find plenty of annoyances about wherever you move to, and you won't notice so much the absence of the negative push reasons. What you will notice, that will make it worthwhile, are the positive pull reasons.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    biggles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anyway, some good news:

    Estimated 9.91 GW of electrical power from solar today, 31% of demand (and that's while using it to recharge out pumped hydro stations during the day).

    Must be close to a record, surely?

    If not -that's even better news. Shows we are still decarbonising our grid.

    Solar on every new build or refurbed house or business in the country seems like a sensible regulation at this point, and worthy of a subsidy.
    No need to subsidise - solar panels now cost less to install than the equivalent area of tiles...
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938
    EPG said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    Yes.

    That's not based on any expertise in tax but it *is* based on working with around 20 private schools in various consultancy and tutoring roles.
    And can you point to an alternative estimate that you think is nearer to the mark?
    That Guardian article in précis: " I have heard that a leading industry consultant advises schools to budget for a near 25% decline by 2030"

    So, the accepted estimate is to just ask someone who makes money from private education, and believe whatever they say.
    And yet the calculations I arrived at were based on the % decline in admissions during the GFC and I arrived at a similar figure - a 30% decline in 10 years.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s a straw poll

    Of my ten best friends

    Two have moved to America
    One has moved to France
    One moved to America but is now moving to Spain
    One is in the process of moving to Thailand

    That’s five out of ten. All late middle aged men who either earn good money (and pay the tax on it) or they earn amazing money (and pay insane tax)

    All gone or going from the UK

    What solution do you propose that would be consistent with the nation-state? You (and arguably Casino) can work abroad *regardless* of who forms HMG. I understand your point but I don't know what the solution is. We have too many old and sick to adopt a Singapore option and I don't think Singapore scales to a country anyway. So I'm stuck.

    Question: does this mean the end of the nation-state as the organising entity? If the talent migrates to the lowest tax regime and sunniest weather, how does Britain survive?
    It's a very real question and it is one no party seems to even consider. Remote working plus digital visas plus English language universality means Britain is quite fucked, and politicians seem intent on fucking it up even more by importing millions of people who transform the safe, tolerant, secular culture of the country, which is one of the few things that makes people want to stay

    Britain is probably doomed

    There is of course a massive unmentioned elephant in the room here, which could potentially change all of this, but I'm not allowed to mention it
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    This kind of abusive response illustrates why it's so difficult to have a sensible discussion here.
    I might object to someone telling me I'm wrong - solely for reasons of face and politics
    - when I'm privy to the inside story from the Trustees and the Headmaster and it directly affects my son, his teachers (people I know) and the local community.

    Just a thought.
    Just stop being abusive to people.
    No, fuck you.

    If people try and tell me I'm lying, dismiss my concerns, or dismiss the reality of what is DIRECTLY AFFECTING MY FAMILY AND FRIENDS then you expect an intemperate response. Every time

    Since I never see you, ever, objecting to when anyone digs, ridicules or insults me - only ever chipping in at my response to such goals- I can seriously say, fuck you.

    You're a nasty partisan little sniper.
    No, I just said you should stop being abusive. Try to express your concerns and so on without continually effing, blinding, "wankfucking" and generally making personal attacks on people you disagree with.
    I will attack any of those who abuse or insult me, cast aspirations on my integrity, or take partisan sides in any of the same, I.e. attacking me without attacking those who don't do the same. You can count on it.

    For you? Congratulations: you win the sanctimonious little shit of the day award.

    As far as I'm concerned you're the "male" version of Heathener.

    Away with you.
    You do realise that every four-letter word you hurl at me only makes my point more obvious?
    I couldn't give a toss what you think.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    megasaur said:

    EPG said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    Yes.

    That's not based on any expertise in tax but it *is* based on working with around 20 private schools in various consultancy and tutoring roles.
    And can you point to an alternative estimate that you think is nearer to the mark?
    That Guardian article in précis: " I have heard that a leading industry consultant advises schools to budget for a near 25% decline by 2030"

    So, the accepted estimate is to just ask someone who makes money from private education, and believe whatever they say.
    Experts tend to make money out of the thing they are experts in.
    Sounds like the sort of thing that ought to be cut if there are savings needed.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    JohnO said:

    tlg86 said:

    BBC News - Election fraud claims being reviewed by police
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1eewd5xgjgo

    How is this any different from Tories for Nick Palmer that famously didn't do him any good in the end?

    I must have missed that - was that in 2015?
    Tories for Palmer made their first appearance 2005-10. He was very narrowly defeated in that election.
    Crickey was it that far back.
    Pretty sure. 2015 was mildly infamous for 'tick tock' in a rare moment of hubrus. He lost by a sizeable margin.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    The Splugen pass, once a major pass over the Alps, used since Roman times, less so nowadays as the St Bernard is usually quicker; scaled in the customary manner. One of the best drives through the Alps, I think.


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    Stocky said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    This kind of abusive response illustrates why it's so difficult to have a sensible discussion here.
    I might object to someone telling me I'm wrong - solely for reasons of face and politics
    - when I'm privy to the inside story from the Trustees and the Headmaster and it directly affects my son, his teachers (people I know) and the local community.

    Just a thought.
    Just stop being abusive to people.
    No, fuck you.

    If people try and tell me I'm lying, dismiss my concerns, or dismiss the reality of what is DIRECTLY AFFECTING MY FAMILY AND FRIENDS then you expect an intemperate response. Every time

    Since I never see you, ever, objecting to when anyone digs, ridicules or insults me - only ever chipping in at my response to such goals- I can seriously say, fuck you.

    You're a nasty partisan little sniper.
    You are reacting to a risk to your family that you believe (probably correctly) is coming your way. My concern is pensions, which I think is going to be used as a political football once again, e.g. perhaps by limiting the mitigating action you can take regarding your high marginal rate of income tax and making changes to defined contribution pensions which will even more favour the public sector versus the private sector.
    We'll only know what Starmer wants to do with his 5 years in office once we get him.

    And then, it'll be too late to do anything about it. Until 2029.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    Let's get a few things clear.

    The two schools the Telegraph has highlighted have been struggling for a while. The VAT announcement can't have helped, but as a coup de grace, not killing a fundamentally sound institution.

    Lots of other factors- cost of living, falling numbers of children and international market factors- are also issues.

    Independent schools could, you know, cut their coats according to their cloth. They don't have to pass on the increased costs, and their record in recent decades has been to spend like sailors and charge accordingly, because they've been able to. The sort of economies needed are the sort that the state has been demanding of most schools for years.

    And whilst it's never nice to have to find a new job, I'm pretty confident that any redundant teacher will find a job in the state sector. It's really short of people right now.

    A final thought experiment. Suppose a government were to announce the reverse: finding VAT exemption for independent schools by cutting mental health support workers for state schools. Does anyone really want to go into bat for that?



    The difference is I am witnessing it actually happening within our own community and as much as you try to defend the policy it is flawed and will not raise the money expected and as I say by Autumn the figures will not be good for the labour government
    By which time they’ll be in government and won’t care ! The vast majority of the public could care less what Labour do to private schools . But will care about the 7.5 million waiting list on the NHS .
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,493
    nico679 said:

    Allies of Diane Abbott say they can see a World in which she doesn't stand as Labour MP for Hackney North

    They say 'she has made her point' - she has succeeded into forcing Starmer to back down - and could now go under her own terms

    They suggest Diane is thinking about it in the run-up to the deadline on Tuesday. No word yet this morning from Diane herself

    https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1797194478672859398

    If this report is true, she has clearly accepted the 30 pieces of silver. And so the saddest of ends for her, abandoning her cause and comrades for self gain. At least when someone sells out on point of principle or ideology you can half forgive them, but not for self gain taking whatever it is they offered her.

    Vanilla Starmerite now takes her seat, and Labour take another stride to being a disastrous echo chamber of a government.

    Incidentally, Sunday Times has Labour MPs telling them they have been offered a gong and place in House of Lords to stand down, Cooper in TV today called every single one of them a liar.
    She said she wasn’t aware of this . Big difference . You’ve also accused Abbott of something . She might decide to leave parliament and not go into the HOL even if the story has any legs .
    Let’s see what choice she makes. And if she gets anything that is, obviously, completely separate from that decision making. And take it from there.

    On the previous thread I pointed out Abbott is 100% not standing for Labour again, that much is obvious. The Starmerites, digging around, have likely unearthed more dirt to help her make the most sensible of decisions.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,212
    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    The question is not whether people who use public schools to educate their children are rich or poor, good or evil, deserving or undeserving. The question is whether it is a "them" problem (the responsibility of the individual) or an "us" problem (the responsibility of the collective and hence the nation). For the life of me I can't put it in the latter category. The government is responsible for providing education (I think?) but should not enforce its use. If Casino or anybody else wants to educate his children in public schools, and he can afford it, then the state should not compel him.

    That, to be fair, is not what this is about, unlike in 1987 when Kinnock did stand on a manifesto of outlawing fee paying education.

    It's about realism and incentives and what damage is done along the way.

    This is a bad policy because it will kill marginal schools while leaving Eton untouched.

    But if we say the government shouldn't interfere at all, where does that go? Do we then adopt the TSE idea of vouchers for all which can be doubled for poorer families and topped up by richer ones?

    (FWIW I think that's a much better policy in terms of social mobility than VAT on private schools.)
    Are you saying Eton will pay no VAT?
    Eton has two options:

    Option one; to charge the VAT in which case most of their parents will be able to afford it with no trouble at all and they will be unaffected;

    Option two; to meet the additional requirement for VAT out of their income from endowments, which is sufficiently large that they could probably afford not to charge fees at all for around 50 years.

    My guess is they will have some combination of the two.

    The irony is, if they go for option two and at the same time are forced to become a corporation, they will probably end up running at a constant loss as a result and so pay no corporation tax.
    My guess, given the rowing lake story, is that they will take a third option.

    Restructure and discover that the government ends up paying them net VAT.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,747
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    Yes.

    That's not based on any expertise in tax but it *is* based on working with around 20 private schools in various consultancy and tutoring roles.
    And can you point to an alternative estimate that you think is nearer to the mark?
    I can point to the false assumptions they're making on retention. As several others already have on this thread. That's all I really need to show their estimates are rubbish.

    As for alternatives, with any policy it would be at best guesswork. However, I would say there's a realistic chance that it would lead to greater expenditure on extra students in the state sector than it will raise in additional revenue.
    The problem is that the opponents of this policy tend to imply it's obvious that the net effect on the public finances would be negative.
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586
    ClippP said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    But if children leaving the private sector are properly dispersed, then that means only two or three extra children for each state-sector school. Why is that an extra cost for the system?

    And similarly teachers. There is currently a shortage of teachers in the state system, apparently. No problem then... any teacher now in the private sector can work in the state sector instead. No threat of unemployment there.

    In the example cited, numbers have fallen from before covid until now. Remind me please.... Precisely when was this proposal of Labour's announced to the public? And if numbers were falling even before then, might not other factors have been at work?
    You can't move seamlessly from private to state teacher. You need a couple of years teacher training.

    I think. Doubtless ydoethur will correct or confirm
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    I’m not sure Fazia Shaheen is going to be let back near the Labour Party anytime soon.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1797232165299609615?s=61

    Calling your erstwhile party corrupt is very much bridge burning behaviour.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    edited June 2
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s a straw poll

    Of my ten best friends

    Two have moved to America
    One has moved to France
    One moved to America but is now moving to Spain
    One is in the process of moving to Thailand

    That’s five out of ten. All late middle aged men who either earn good money (and pay the tax on it) or they earn amazing money (and pay insane tax)

    All gone or going from the UK

    What solution do you propose that would be consistent with the nation-state? You (and arguably Casino) can work abroad *regardless* of who forms HMG. I understand your point but I don't know what the solution is. We have too many old and sick to adopt a Singapore option and I don't think Singapore scales to a country anyway. So I'm stuck.

    Question: does this mean the end of the nation-state as the organising entity? If the talent migrates to the lowest tax regime and sunniest weather, how does Britain survive?
    It's a very real question and it is one no party seems to even consider. Remote working plus digital visas plus English language universality means Britain is quite fucked, and politicians seem intent on fucking it up even more by importing millions of people who transform the safe, tolerant, secular culture of the country, which is one of the few things that makes people want to stay

    Britain is probably doomed

    There is of course a massive unmentioned elephant in the room here, which could potentially change all of this, but I'm not allowed to mention it
    It's happening on a very minor scale in Scotland, with people WFH from Northumberland for Scottish banks and so on. You pay tax based on where you are resident, so you get a better deal in England... Also some edge cases with the military getting uplifts if they are based in Scotland. Again a very small effect but you can start to get a feel for it.

    I assume there must be one or two civil servants in that position, which is interesting if they are enacting policy than does not affect where they live. Nothing wrong in principle with that, but it does make me uneasy.

    I would guess we will move from residency based income taxation to something else. The social contract between taxation/services feels vulnerable.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    I wrote a long post about the private school debate a few days ago, so will resist repeating it. But I'd like to reinforce three points from it:

    1. I find it offensive that many of the private school advocates are so sneeringly contemptuous about a 'state education'. Many of us are very proud of our comprehensive schools and the excellent academic and social education they provided.
    2. There's a good number of private schools that offer a pretty poor quality of education, but the parents are seemingly unaware of it.
    3. I find it grossly offensive that those who do not sent their kids to private schools, either because they can't afford it or prefer the state sector, are said to be lacking in aspiration for their kids. Were my parents still alive, they'd be fuming at this suggestion.

    On three, I think there’s space for everyone to be correct, from their own perspective.

    I didn’t go to public school and would never send my kids to one (not enough social mixing - one of my best mates is foreman in a factory and I’d never have met him if I went to public school), so I get where you are coming from.

    BUT I also accept that for some, public schools are something to aspire to and a means of giving kids a leg up, and I think people have a right to spend their money in that way if they want to, and would rather they did that than many other things they could spend it on.
  • I wrote a long post about the private school debate a few days ago, so will resist repeating it. But I'd like to reinforce three points from it:

    1. I find it offensive that many of the private school advocates are so sneeringly contemptuous about a 'state education'. Many of us are very proud of our comprehensive schools and the excellent academic and social education they provided.
    2. There's a good number of private schools that offer a pretty poor quality of education, but the parents are seemingly unaware of it.
    3. I find it grossly offensive that those who do not sent their kids to private schools, either because they can't afford it or prefer the state sector, are said to be lacking in aspiration for their kids. Were my parents still alive, they'd be fuming at this suggestion.

    We had a horrendous French teacher at my junior school who every parent knew was terrible but he was kept around because he was "a jolly good laugh".
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    Stocky said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    Sorry, I had a look at their website.
    You should be.
    Fees With Effect From 1 Septemeber 2024:

    We got taught how to spell at my Scottish comprehensive
    Deleted. Not worth it.
    You have support on this site CR. Take a breath.
    At times CR is his own worst enemy on here, especially when he views the attacks as personal when they usually aren't...
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938
    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    Yes, and they're wrong, as I've repeatedly pointed out, doing my own sums on several threads. Ad infinitum, in fact.

    Rather than rehashing my figures for the umpteenth time, I'll simply point you in the direction of the Guardian article that came out a week ago that arrived at a figure more or less identical to mine -

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/20/vat-private-schools-labour-low-income-kids-tax-bursaries
    Thanks.

    The estimate I can see there - not the Guardian's, but just attributed to an unnamed "leading industry consultant" - is here:
    I have heard that a leading industry consultant advises schools to budget for a near 25% decline by 2030. Notably, at a 25% decline, the net impact becomes negative as the cost of educating private school leavers in the state system would exceed all VAT gains.

    So your estimate is that the net effect would be neutral?
    No, I estimated a 30% decline over the next decade (based on how the GFC impacted intake numbers to extrapolate what a 20% hike in prices would likely do as existing kids finish private education but fewer start, leading to a year on year decline in numbers), which would make it a loss maker over time. That also doesn't take into account other effects such as the distortion in the housing market and the displacement of kids who might have otherwise got places for 'good' state schools now taken by those kids no longer attending private schools.

    I think it's a bad policy, and I've repeatedly posted facts and figures with evidence to support this. Other posters with more experience of the education sector have also expressed similar doubts.

    But it's a nice day out and I've no intention of rehashing this argument ad infinitum. I've posted my own figures repeatedly (which are close to those suggested in The Guardian) and expressed skepticism of the policy for the reasons above. We're now reaching a point where there's more repeats on here than afternoon television, so I'll stop.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,977
    edited June 2

    ydoethur said:

    EPG said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    The question is not whether people who use public schools to educate their children are rich or poor, good or evil, deserving or undeserving. The question is whether it is a "them" problem (the responsibility of the individual) or an "us" problem (the responsibility of the collective and hence the nation). For the life of me I can't put it in the latter category. The government is responsible for providing education (I think?) but should not enforce its use. If Casino or anybody else wants to educate his children in public schools, and he can afford it, then the state should not compel him.

    That, to be fair, is not what this is about, unlike in 1987 when Kinnock did stand on a manifesto of outlawing fee paying education.

    It's about realism and incentives and what damage is done along the way.

    This is a bad policy because it will kill marginal schools while leaving Eton untouched.

    But if we say the government shouldn't interfere at all, where does that go? Do we then adopt the TSE idea of vouchers for all which can be doubled for poorer families and topped up by richer ones?

    (FWIW I think that's a much better policy in terms of social mobility than VAT on private schools.)
    Are you saying Eton will pay no VAT?
    Eton has two options:

    Option one; to charge the VAT in which case most of their parents will be able to afford it with no trouble at all and they will be unaffected;

    Option two; to meet the additional requirement for VAT out of their income from endowments, which is sufficiently large that they could probably afford not to charge fees at all for around 50 years.

    My guess is they will have some combination of the two.

    The irony is, if they go for option two and at the same time are forced to become a corporation, they will probably end up running at a constant loss as a result and so pay no corporation tax.
    My guess, given the rowing lake story, is that they will take a third option.

    Restructure and discover that the government ends up paying them net VAT.
    I wonder if smaller private schools could end up banding together and form a larger organisation (the way in the state sector they have multi-academy trusts) and leverage the same tax advantages?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    ToryJim said:

    I’m not sure Fazia Shaheen is going to be let back near the Labour Party anytime soon.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1797232165299609615?s=61

    Calling your erstwhile party corrupt is very much bridge burning behaviour.

    The issue isn’t just the recent tweet episode . I actually quite like her but when will candidates and MPs ever learn to avoid twitter like the plague .
  • megasaurmegasaur Posts: 586

    megasaur said:

    EPG said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    Yes.

    That's not based on any expertise in tax but it *is* based on working with around 20 private schools in various consultancy and tutoring roles.
    And can you point to an alternative eNostimate that you think is nearer to the mark?
    That Guardian article in précis: " I have heard that a leading industry consultant advises schools to budget for a near 25% decline by 2030"

    So, the accepted estimate is to just ask someone who makes money from private education, and believe whatever they say.
    Experts tend to make money out of the thing they are experts in.
    Sounds like the sort of thing that ought to be cut if there are savings needed.
    As with the NHS. If cancer consultants are the highest paid, they should be the first to go.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044

    Yes. I have been considering Pluto. They say it is a bit cold there though.

    Very high taxes on Pluto: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sun_Makers
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Stocky said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    You haven't a clue what you're fucking talking about.

    Don't even try.
    This kind of abusive response illustrates why it's so difficult to have a sensible discussion here.
    I might object to someone telling me I'm wrong - solely for reasons of face and politics
    - when I'm privy to the inside story from the Trustees and the Headmaster and it directly affects my son, his teachers (people I know) and the local community.

    Just a thought.
    Just stop being abusive to people.
    No, fuck you.

    If people try and tell me I'm lying, dismiss my concerns, or dismiss the reality of what is DIRECTLY AFFECTING MY FAMILY AND FRIENDS then you expect an intemperate response. Every time

    Since I never see you, ever, objecting to when anyone digs, ridicules or insults me - only ever chipping in at my response to such goals- I can seriously say, fuck you.

    You're a nasty partisan little sniper.
    You are reacting to a risk to your family that you believe (probably correctly) is coming your way. My concern is pensions, which I think is going to be used as a political football once again, e.g. perhaps by limiting the mitigating action you can take regarding your high marginal rate of income tax and making changes to defined contribution pensions which will even more favour the public sector versus the private sector.
    We'll only know what Starmer wants to do with his 5 years in office once we get him.

    And then, it'll be too late to do anything about it. Until 2029.
    There’s always the right wing military coup that the softer headed conspiracists definitely think will be being organised.
  • ToryJim said:

    I’m not sure Fazia Shaheen is going to be let back near the Labour Party anytime soon.

    https://x.com/lbc/status/1797232165299609615?s=61

    Calling your erstwhile party corrupt is very much bridge burning behaviour.

    I think she's a pretty poor candidate all told. It baffles me why she'd want to stand for a party she thinks is racist and with a leader she hates.

    Personally I think she's thoroughly overrated and a non-Corbyn candidate may well have beaten IDS last time around.

    Corbynism is over, I know a few people are still in denial about that but I have some sympathy with the argument that SKS makes, i.e. that this party is his and he wants candidates standing who actually support what he's doing. The Corbynites had their chance and blew it.

    Time to move on now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174

    JohnO said:

    tlg86 said:

    BBC News - Election fraud claims being reviewed by police
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1eewd5xgjgo

    How is this any different from Tories for Nick Palmer that famously didn't do him any good in the end?

    I must have missed that - was that in 2015?
    Tories for Palmer made their first appearance 2005-10. He was very narrowly defeated in that election.
    Crickey was it that far back.
    I might be missing something, but what was the story? I don't quite get what's going on in High Peak either.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    The angle I find more interesting than the analysis of policy impacts from elite school fee VAT is that Labour are heavily shedding votes on the doorsteps from tradesmen and midwives over private schools.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    nico679 said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    Let's get a few things clear.

    The two schools the Telegraph has highlighted have been struggling for a while. The VAT announcement can't have helped, but as a coup de grace, not killing a fundamentally sound institution.

    Lots of other factors- cost of living, falling numbers of children and international market factors- are also issues.

    Independent schools could, you know, cut their coats according to their cloth. They don't have to pass on the increased costs, and their record in recent decades has been to spend like sailors and charge accordingly, because they've been able to. The sort of economies needed are the sort that the state has been demanding of most schools for years.

    And whilst it's never nice to have to find a new job, I'm pretty confident that any redundant teacher will find a job in the state sector. It's really short of people right now.

    A final thought experiment. Suppose a government were to announce the reverse: finding VAT exemption for independent schools by cutting mental health support workers for state schools. Does anyone really want to go into bat for that?



    The difference is I am witnessing it actually happening within our own community and as much as you try to defend the policy it is flawed and will not raise the money expected and as I say by Autumn the figures will not be good for the labour government
    By which time they’ll be in government and won’t care ! The vast majority of the public could care less what Labour do to private schools . But will care about the 7.5 million waiting list on the NHS .
    You miss the point

    This policy is to pay for 6,000 extra teachers and the likelihood is it will actually cost the state sector far more so then where is the money for the extra teachers ?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    megasaur said:

    EPG said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    Yes.

    That's not based on any expertise in tax but it *is* based on working with around 20 private schools in various consultancy and tutoring roles.
    And can you point to an alternative estimate that you think is nearer to the mark?
    That Guardian article in précis: " I have heard that a leading industry consultant advises schools to budget for a near 25% decline by 2030"

    So, the accepted estimate is to just ask someone who makes money from private education, and believe whatever they say.
    Experts tend to make money out of the thing they are experts in.
    Sounds like the sort of thing that ought to be cut if there are savings needed.
    I thought this country had had enough of experts anyway?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    megasaur said:

    ClippP said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    You think the IFS estimate is completely wrong?
    But if children leaving the private sector are properly dispersed, then that means only two or three extra children for each state-sector school. Why is that an extra cost for the system?

    And similarly teachers. There is currently a shortage of teachers in the state system, apparently. No problem then... any teacher now in the private sector can work in the state sector instead. No threat of unemployment there.

    In the example cited, numbers have fallen from before covid until now. Remind me please.... Precisely when was this proposal of Labour's announced to the public? And if numbers were falling even before then, might not other factors have been at work?
    You can't move seamlessly from private to state teacher. You need a couple of years teacher training.

    I think. Doubtless ydoethur will correct or confirm
    I don't think that's the case any more, especially with academies, which comprise most secondary schools.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    EPG said:

    The angle I find more interesting than the analysis of policy impacts from elite school fee VAT is that Labour are heavily shedding votes on the doorsteps from tradesmen and midwives over private schools.

    Where is the polling evidence of this policy causing any damage at all?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,986
    Leon said:

    Here’s a straw poll

    Of my ten best friends

    Two have moved to America
    One has moved to France
    One moved to America but is now moving to Spain
    One is in the process of moving to Thailand

    That’s five out of ten. All late middle aged men who either earn good money (and pay the tax on it) or they earn amazing money (and pay insane tax)

    All gone or going from the UK

    *cough*BREXIT*cough*
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    biggles said:

    EPG said:

    The angle I find more interesting than the analysis of policy impacts from elite school fee VAT is that Labour are heavily shedding votes on the doorsteps from tradesmen and midwives over private schools.

    Where is the polling evidence of this policy causing any damage at all?
    MoonRabbit says so.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    nico679 said:

    Chris said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    nova said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @Farooq and the other pb lefties because this is a really important debate


    @Casino_Royale is a smart, hard working heterosexual white British male. British society is doing everything it can to tell him he is despised just for being a straight white male, and everyone else - every woman, every minority, everyone else has priority over him

    At the same time the state is asking him to pay more and more tax for increasingly shabby public services because the state insists on importing 700,000 people a year (that no one asked for) putting ever more pressure on everything - and what money is left over must be spent - billions a year - on housing asylum seekers who are really just economic migrants but we are too spineless to say this and to pathetic to keep them out

    And still you scoff at the idea @Casino_Royale might think “Fuck this” and bugger off somewhere else


    Edit to add: At the same time as Britain is doing this, and as Britain seems to be gaining the climate of the Faroe Islands, lots of countries with better climates and nice cities and less Wokeness which aren’t intrinsically hostile to straight white men are adopting favourable tax regimes to attract people like @Casino_Royale

    We really are in danger or driving away the smart hard working people that pay for the British state. What then?

    For every 12 of me that go the State loses £1 million of tax revenue.
    But (in the case of employees, obvs) your jobs will still remain. And someone else will fill them.
    The concept of unfulfilled vacancies is clearly alien to you then?
    Are you suggesting you're irreplaceable?

    That's quite the claim.

    Perhaps (and this is aimed at Leon's comment, not yours), the over-representation of white British heterosexual males in some industries is a failure of capitalism, and if a few of them left it wouldn't be the disaster they imagine.
    Jesus Christ.

    This is the country we're becoming, folks.
    It’s such an offensively stupid remark I wonder if @nova is a Russian bot. And this is designed to stir up yet more anger

    If it is real, god help us. As you say. Why should the likes of you or I pay to support a state that looks after @nova and all the others that hate us? Our taxes go to people that despise us
    It's also nonsense. I've had job offers from partners in my firm to work in Hong Kong, Washington DC and the Middle East (UAE and Saudi) just over the last 9 months.

    Now, as it happens, I said no because my kids were settled in school and we didn't want to uproot them. But, given Labour have uprooted one of them anyway, there comes a point where I might just take the plunge.

    I've been listening to @Gardenwalker carefully on this and he doesn't make it sound so bad.
    Labour aren't in Government, there is no VAT on private schools.

    Your child's school failed for any number of reasons but it wasn't because Labour applied VAT.
    Our son holds a senior management position in our local private school and the imposition of vat, certain now Starmer is going to be PM in a few weeks , is having an effect on their school numbers and across the industry

    It is also seriously worrying teachers in these schools and to suggest because Starmer is not in power it is not the cause of disruption in the industry is simply not borne out by those actually working in private schools
    Yes, please see the article I just posted.

    This policy is starting to kill off multiple small prep and community schools in that help children with special needs, like Dowdham Prep and Alton School (Convent).

    It's not the Etons and Winchesters that will be hurt by it. It's the little guys.
    Charging £18,000 per year. That's 140% higher than state school funding. And higher than average for private schools.

    Alton School said in a statement: This proposal is based on a continued decline in pupil numbers, to the extent that the school has now become unviable

    oh
    Indeed. a 20% price shock on top of a cost of living crisis (the GFC was responsible for 30,000 pupils leaving private education and 30 schools closing), is not good news.

    As someone who doesn't have kids and already pays taxes to educate other people's kids, I quite like it when parents reduce the tax burden on me by paying for their own kids.

    Far fewer will be doing so next year.
    The IFS has calculated that VAT on private schools will result in "a net gain to the public finances of £1.3–1.5 billion per year in the medium to long run":
    https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/IFS-Report-R263-Tax-private-school-fees-and-state-school-spending.pdf

    That was in July 2023 and before the policy became inevitable and immediate and the live consequences of this policy are now coming into sharp focus as reality kicks in and private schools see declining numbers for September term onwards

    As I have said before the actual cost in children having to join the state sector and lost teaching jobs will be available in September and I genuinely expect labour to be shocked at the outcome
    Let's get a few things clear.

    The two schools the Telegraph has highlighted have been struggling for a while. The VAT announcement can't have helped, but as a coup de grace, not killing a fundamentally sound institution.

    Lots of other factors- cost of living, falling numbers of children and international market factors- are also issues.

    Independent schools could, you know, cut their coats according to their cloth. They don't have to pass on the increased costs, and their record in recent decades has been to spend like sailors and charge accordingly, because they've been able to. The sort of economies needed are the sort that the state has been demanding of most schools for years.

    And whilst it's never nice to have to find a new job, I'm pretty confident that any redundant teacher will find a job in the state sector. It's really short of people right now.

    A final thought experiment. Suppose a government were to announce the reverse: finding VAT exemption for independent schools by cutting mental health support workers for state schools. Does anyone really want to go into bat for that?



    The difference is I am witnessing it actually happening within our own community and as much as you try to defend the policy it is flawed and will not raise the money expected and as I say by Autumn the figures will not be good for the labour government
    By which time they’ll be in government and won’t care ! The vast majority of the public could care less what Labour do to private schools . But will care about the 7.5 million waiting list on the NHS .
    You miss the point

    This policy is to pay for 6,000 extra teachers and the likelihood is it will actually cost the state sector far more so then where is the money for the extra teachers ?
    It’s an election campaign where both sides are winging it and will face a harsh reality after the election .
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