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Ayrshire hotelier and convicted felon remains the favourite for the White House race in November

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 8 in General
imageAyrshire hotelier and convicted felon – politicalbetting.com

Graphic: The Betfair US Presidential market over the last 5 days

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    edited May 31
    Second like Ed

    Edit: or first like future president Zuma?
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124
    edited May 31
    First?
    Or possibly second.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,842
    edited May 31
    Ok, edit then -
    3rd, like RFK jnr.
  • Options
    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,074
    Fifth column, like The Donald
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    Ghedebrav said:

    Second like Ed

    Edit: or first like future president Zuma?

    I know he won’t actually be first; but don’t discount the old rogue somehow making himself prez out of a coalition deal.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good morning

    Listening to Labour ruling out tax increases it is becoming very obvious that they are seeking the private sector to invest many billions in an attempt to increase growth to pay for all the goodies

    This is straight out of the Gordon Brown playbook and disastrous PFI scandal or am I wrong ?

    Nope but you can't really make the case that the Tories are any better either.
    In *theory* small government investments in a project can be used to leverage many multiple of that from private sources.

    I've mentioned before an idea of how get investment in clean vehicle technology* without spending any money before the next election. Offer a subsidy for each KWh of storage actually installed in a vehicle, in the UK. Subsidy is scaled according to the UK content of the storage - use a Chinese battery, get nothing.

    *Notice I'm not saying battery - no picking winners. Even the winners whom seem to have won the race already.
    But @Malmesbury subsidies are money. And we don't have any.
    You are missing the point. The subsidy is future money. It takes years to build a factory. So Labour could enact the subsidy and it would probably be past the next election before much money would actually have to be spent.

    The fastest anyone has built such a factory is probably https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_Berlin-Brandenburg - which was 3+ years from ground breaking to initial production.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    Ghedebrav said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Second like Ed

    Edit: or first like future president Zuma?

    I know he won’t actually be first; but don’t discount the old rogue somehow making himself prez out of a coalition deal.
    Yeah, Zuma is the guy who goes into a revolving door behind you, but comes out in front.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,200
    Laying Trump has to be one of the best value bets around (unless you're knowledgeably into the weeds of UK constituency betting).

    And it's the most liquid political betting market there is, so plenty of opportunities to trade between now and November.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Trump remains in a very strong position. Not a done deal, not at all. But he is in a very strong position.

    Most of this is due to lies of course. So, even yesterday, he was saying his country had gone to hell and that "millions" of people out of prisons were invading it causing chaos. In the real world violent crime in the US is at a 50 year low. it was last this low in the early 1970s when the population was 100m less. In per capita terms it is astonishingly low.
    if this huge wave of immigrants is causing a crime spree where are the crimes?

    Trump's inevitable answer is that the FBI statistics are "fake news". Well.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,458
    N n n n n nineteenth.

    Maybe.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,374
    Of course, if Trump actually gets into court on any of the other charges, or, better still is actually convicted then the less than obsessed will fall away. The danger is that they won’t vote, rather than voting Biden.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    MattW said:

    N n n n n nineteenth.

    Maybe.

    Nope only 10th.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,072
    I was going to suggest Trump should take up watersports like Ed Davey, but realised that’s already priced in.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    edited May 31

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good morning

    Listening to Labour ruling out tax increases it is becoming very obvious that they are seeking the private sector to invest many billions in an attempt to increase growth to pay for all the goodies

    This is straight out of the Gordon Brown playbook and disastrous PFI scandal or am I wrong ?

    Nope but you can't really make the case that the Tories are any better either.
    In *theory* small government investments in a project can be used to leverage many multiple of that from private sources.

    I've mentioned before an idea of how get investment in clean vehicle technology* without spending any money before the next election. Offer a subsidy for each KWh of storage actually installed in a vehicle, in the UK. Subsidy is scaled according to the UK content of the storage - use a Chinese battery, get nothing.

    *Notice I'm not saying battery - no picking winners. Even the winners whom seem to have won the race already.
    But @Malmesbury subsidies are money. And we don't have any.
    You are missing the point. The subsidy is future money. It takes years to build a factory. So Labour could enact the subsidy and it would probably be past the next election before much money would actually have to be spent.

    The fastest anyone has built such a factory is probably https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_Berlin-Brandenburg - which was 3+ years from ground breaking to initial production.
    The problem with "future money" is that the future has an annoying habit of arriving. In the meantime we would be breaking various free trade treaties. Don't get me wrong, I'm more than up for a bit of mercantilism. It has boosted growth in the US sharply. But I am not sure this is a bidding war that we can win at a cost we can afford.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105
    Iain Dale discovers that actions have consequences

    https://x.com/adambienkov/status/1796468845965910348?s=46
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,579
    What happened to Moon Rabbit?
    Where is she these days?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good morning

    Listening to Labour ruling out tax increases it is becoming very obvious that they are seeking the private sector to invest many billions in an attempt to increase growth to pay for all the goodies

    This is straight out of the Gordon Brown playbook and disastrous PFI scandal or am I wrong ?

    Nope but you can't really make the case that the Tories are any better either.
    In *theory* small government investments in a project can be used to leverage many multiple of that from private sources.

    I've mentioned before an idea of how get investment in clean vehicle technology* without spending any money before the next election. Offer a subsidy for each KWh of storage actually installed in a vehicle, in the UK. Subsidy is scaled according to the UK content of the storage - use a Chinese battery, get nothing.

    *Notice I'm not saying battery - no picking winners. Even the winners whom seem to have won the race already.
    But @Malmesbury subsidies are money. And we don't have any.
    You are missing the point. The subsidy is future money. It takes years to build a factory. So Labour could enact the subsidy and it would probably be past the next election before much money would actually have to be spent.

    The fastest anyone has built such a factory is probably https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_Berlin-Brandenburg - which was 3+ years from ground breaking to initial production.
    The problem with "future money" is that the future has an annoying habit of arising. In the meantime we would be breaking various free trade treaties. Don't get me wrong, I'm more than up for a bit of mercantilism. It has boosted growth in the US sharply. But I am not sure this is a bidding war that we can win at a cost we can afford.
    It’s pretty much something that only the US can do, because of the dollar being the world currency.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,687
    Self purged by stupid shit wot he said in the past. There's a lot of it about.

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796468845965910348
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,463

    I was going to suggest Trump should take up watersports like Ed Davey, but realised that’s already priced in.

    I regret that I can only like your post once.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good morning

    Listening to Labour ruling out tax increases it is becoming very obvious that they are seeking the private sector to invest many billions in an attempt to increase growth to pay for all the goodies

    This is straight out of the Gordon Brown playbook and disastrous PFI scandal or am I wrong ?

    Nope but you can't really make the case that the Tories are any better either.
    In *theory* small government investments in a project can be used to leverage many multiple of that from private sources.

    I've mentioned before an idea of how get investment in clean vehicle technology* without spending any money before the next election. Offer a subsidy for each KWh of storage actually installed in a vehicle, in the UK. Subsidy is scaled according to the UK content of the storage - use a Chinese battery, get nothing.

    *Notice I'm not saying battery - no picking winners. Even the winners whom seem to have won the race already.
    But @Malmesbury subsidies are money. And we don't have any.
    You are missing the point. The subsidy is future money. It takes years to build a factory. So Labour could enact the subsidy and it would probably be past the next election before much money would actually have to be spent.

    The fastest anyone has built such a factory is probably https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_Berlin-Brandenburg - which was 3+ years from ground breaking to initial production.
    The problem with "future money" is that the future has an annoying habit of arising. In the meantime we would be breaking various free trade treaties. Don't get me wrong, I'm more than up for a bit of mercantilism. It has boosted growth in the US sharply. But I am not sure this is a bidding war that we can win at a cost we can afford.
    It’s pretty much something that only the US can do, because of the dollar being the world currency.
    And because they have consistently vetoed the appointment of new judges to the GATT appeal process making it inoperable.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,687
    edited May 31
    Fpt
    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good morning

    Listening to Labour ruling out tax increases it is becoming very obvious that they are seeking the private sector to invest many billions in an attempt to increase growth to pay for all the goodies

    This is straight out of the Gordon Brown playbook and disastrous PFI scandal or am I wrong ?

    Nope but you can't really make the case that the Tories are any better either.
    In *theory* small government investments in a project can be used to leverage many multiple of that from private sources.

    I've mentioned before an idea of how get investment in clean vehicle technology* without spending any money before the next election. Offer a subsidy for each KWh of storage actually installed in a vehicle, in the UK. Subsidy is scaled according to the UK content of the storage - use a Chinese battery, get nothing.

    *Notice I'm not saying battery - no picking winners. Even the winners whom seem to have won the race already.
    But @Malmesbury subsidies are money. And we don't have any.
    You are missing the point. The subsidy is future money. It takes years to build a factory. So Labour could enact the subsidy and it would probably be past the next election before much money would actually have to be spent.

    The fastest anyone has built such a factory is probably https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_Berlin-Brandenburg - which was 3+ years from ground breaking to initial production.
    The problem with "future money" is that the future has an annoying habit of arriving. In the meantime we would be breaking various free trade treaties. Don't get me wrong, I'm more than up for a bit of mercantilism. It has boosted growth in the US sharply. But I am not sure this is a bidding war that we can win at a cost we can afford.
    Subsidies for green production around the world are not even uncommon.

    Cue @Luckyguy1983 to complain about them in the UK.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877
    dixiedean said:

    What happened to Moon Rabbit?
    Where is she these days?

    Campaigning hard for the Lib Dems Conservatives so that they win bigly in May July just un like they did in the London Mayoral election.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Scottish police and the holding of beer inevitably comes to mind.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,374
    edited May 31

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,842
    Nigelb said:

    Laying Trump has to be one of the best value bets around (unless you're knowledgeably into the weeds of UK constituency betting).

    And it's the most liquid political betting market there is, so plenty of opportunities to trade between now and November.

    Yes it is. I just wish I was starting to short him today rather than kicking off when he was at the 6 sort of level. Still, I got some 1.9 matched latest and I've got my average price down below 3 now. Let's see how those polls move over the next couple of months.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,120

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Plus Reform I imagine
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,486

    Ghedebrav said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Second like Ed

    Edit: or first like future president Zuma?

    I know he won’t actually be first; but don’t discount the old rogue somehow making himself prez out of a coalition deal.
    Yeah, Zuma is the guy who goes into a revolving door behind you, but comes out in front.
    Nice one Malmsebury, made me chuckle
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,374

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Plus Reform I imagine
    Yes, I forgot them. Silly me. Especially as I live in a constituency where it’s suggested they might make a difference.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Mainly Green I would have thought. Indeed, it is surprising to see the Greens that low. IIRC they got something like 10% of the list vote the last time.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,153

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Plus Reform I imagine
    Yes, I forgot them. Silly me. Especially as I live in a constituency where it’s suggested they might make a difference.
    Err wouldn't it be the Scottish Greens ?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,153
    DavidL said:

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Mainly Green I would have thought. Indeed, it is surprising to see the Greens that low. IIRC they got something like 10% of the list vote the last time.
    Well it is a constituency poll, not a list poll.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,391
    DavidL said:

    Trump remains in a very strong position. Not a done deal, not at all. But he is in a very strong position.

    Most of this is due to lies of course. So, even yesterday, he was saying his country had gone to hell and that "millions" of people out of prisons were invading it causing chaos. In the real world violent crime in the US is at a 50 year low. it was last this low in the early 1970s when the population was 100m less. In per capita terms it is astonishingly low.
    if this huge wave of immigrants is causing a crime spree where are the crimes?

    Trump's inevitable answer is that the FBI statistics are "fake news". Well.

    To be fair he is doing his damndest to keep the crime numbers up.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877
    DavidL said:

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Mainly Green I would have thought. Indeed, it is surprising to see the Greens that low. IIRC they got something like 10% of the list vote the last time.
    Constituency though. First question is: who is even standing? Not a given that Green, Alba, Reform, or the remoter fringe parties will even stand in any given seat.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290
    edited May 31
    @Tomorrow'sMPs
    @tomorrowsmps
    ·
    43m
    🔴 SWANSEA WEST: it looks like Resolution Foundation CEO is being lined up for this seat.

    ====

    Wow. Another think tanker parachuting in.

    Starmer is brewing a huge problem here imho. All these 'high fliers' he is parachuting in will not want to be backbench vote fodder. They will want to be given worthwhile government jobs and get stuff done. How many experienced MPs hoping for ministerial jobs will now be pushed out of the way for these new kids?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Mainly Green I would have thought. Indeed, it is surprising to see the Greens that low. IIRC they got something like 10% of the list vote the last time.
    Well it is a constituency poll, not a list poll.
    Sure, and last time the Greens didn't stand in more than a token number of constituencies as part of their second vote
    quasi pact with the SNP. But even so, I would be surprised if they were polling less than 4% which leaves very little indeed for Alba or Reform.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,486
    dixiedean said:

    What happened to Moon Rabbit?
    Where is she these days?

    Rejected of Tunbridge Wells
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,374
    Pulpstar said:

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Plus Reform I imagine
    Yes, I forgot them. Silly me. Especially as I live in a constituency where it’s suggested they might make a difference.
    Err wouldn't it be the Scottish Greens ?
    Could be, too. As DavidL says, surprising. Would have expected them to have to be mentioned.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124
    DavidL said:

    Trump remains in a very strong position. Not a done deal, not at all. But he is in a very strong position.

    Most of this is due to lies of course. So, even yesterday, he was saying his country had gone to hell and that "millions" of people out of prisons were invading it causing chaos. In the real world violent crime in the US is at a 50 year low. it was last this low in the early 1970s when the population was 100m less. In per capita terms it is astonishingly low.
    if this huge wave of immigrants is causing a crime spree where are the crimes?

    Trump's inevitable answer is that the FBI statistics are "fake news". Well.

    Agree. Maybe the most predictable and the most odd thing about yesterday's result (I expected a failure to get all 12 agreeing, and was wrong) is that it doesn't seem to change anything at all. It would be nice to be wrong about that too; but the USA appears to be still in that extraordinary state in which there is no safe, middle, objective, neutral ground in which to boringly evaluate things from the viewpoint of a common core of values. In this it resembles Israel/Palestine.

    (Is this is the sort of thing which a mixture of BBC, UK traditions of academia, the monarchy, and a fairly non politicised judiciary help to preserve thus far on our side of the pond, and which the present government has tried to undermine?)
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Plus Reform I imagine
    Yes, I forgot them. Silly me. Especially as I live in a constituency where it’s suggested they might make a difference.
    Nige isn't coming for Priti, is he? I thought they were besties :disappointed:

    Sounds insane to think otherwise, but odds on Labour seem to be 9/2 - 4/1 range :open_mouth:
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Farooq said:

    DavidL said:

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Mainly Green I would have thought. Indeed, it is surprising to see the Greens that low. IIRC they got something like 10% of the list vote the last time.
    Constituency though. First question is: who is even standing? Not a given that Green, Alba, Reform, or the remoter fringe parties will even stand in any given seat.
    Unless they patch things up with the SNP I expect the Greens to stand in many more seats in 2026 than they did the last time.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,120
    Iain Dale and the kurious kase of karma
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990

    DavidL said:

    Trump remains in a very strong position. Not a done deal, not at all. But he is in a very strong position.

    Most of this is due to lies of course. So, even yesterday, he was saying his country had gone to hell and that "millions" of people out of prisons were invading it causing chaos. In the real world violent crime in the US is at a 50 year low. it was last this low in the early 1970s when the population was 100m less. In per capita terms it is astonishingly low.
    if this huge wave of immigrants is causing a crime spree where are the crimes?

    Trump's inevitable answer is that the FBI statistics are "fake news". Well.

    To be fair he is doing his damndest to keep the crime numbers up.
    Genuine LOL.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    DavidL said:

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Mainly Green I would have thought. Indeed, it is surprising to see the Greens that low. IIRC they got something like 10% of the list vote the last time.
    That 10% was inflated by the SNP and Greens playing the system. The top up Regional list part of the Scottish Parliament election system breaks down when one party sweeps the constituencies and there's not enough top up seats to make the whole region proportional. This happened in most Scottish regions in 2016 and 2021 and for Labour in the three South Wales regions in all Senedd elections. So the SNP gain no benefit from a regional list vote but voting for the Scottish Greens could take a top up seat from a unionist party. Things will probably be very different in 2026.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,397

    @Tomorrow'sMPs
    @tomorrowsmps
    ·
    43m
    🔴 SWANSEA WEST: it looks like Resolution Foundation CEO is being lined up for this seat.

    ====

    Wow. Another think tanker parachuting in.

    Starmer is brewing a huge problem here imho. All these 'high fliers' he is parachuting in will not want to be backbench vote fodder. They will want to be given worthwhile government jobs and get stuff done. How many experienced MPs hoping for ministerial jobs will now be pushed out of the way for these new kids?

    One thing Boris Johnson did to deal with that issue was to create new non-jobs so that he could give more MPs a post and the sense that they mattered. Hence there was a proliferation of trade envoys and deputy chairs of the Conservative party.

    I'd expect something similar, but with posts that fit Labour culture more, to keep idle MPs busy.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,842
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Trump remains in a very strong position. Not a done deal, not at all. But he is in a very strong position.

    Most of this is due to lies of course. So, even yesterday, he was saying his country had gone to hell and that "millions" of people out of prisons were invading it causing chaos. In the real world violent crime in the US is at a 50 year low. it was last this low in the early 1970s when the population was 100m less. In per capita terms it is astonishingly low.
    if this huge wave of immigrants is causing a crime spree where are the crimes?

    Trump's inevitable answer is that the FBI statistics are "fake news". Well.

    Agree. Maybe the most predictable and the most odd thing about yesterday's result (I expected a failure to get all 12 agreeing, and was wrong) is that it doesn't seem to change anything at all. It would be nice to be wrong about that too; but the USA appears to be still in that extraordinary state in which there is no safe, middle, objective, neutral ground in which to boringly evaluate things from the viewpoint of a common core of values. In this it resembles Israel/Palestine.

    (Is this is the sort of thing which a mixture of BBC, UK traditions of academia, the monarchy, and a fairly non politicised judiciary help to preserve thus far on our side of the pond, and which the present government has tried to undermine?)
    Too early to conclude it changes nothing - it needs to seep - but the betting move (1.9 to 2) wasn't that big.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,595
    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position

    How is it "a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point" when every juror agreed that he was guilty for 34 charges? Not one juror disagreed across all those charges. Are the jurors part of the conspiracy? Or maybe Donald Trump is a lying crook and justice is finally catching up with him.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    edited May 31
    FPT -reply to NorthernAl

    Local reaction to the Kemptown selection:

    https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/24357056.chris-ward-selected-brighton-kemptown-peacehaven-candidate/

    Somewhat blunts Labour’s attacks on “parachuted in” candidates in adjacent Brighton Pavilion….

    I think Labour will still win Brighton Kemptown, though their vote will be significantly depressed. Many of the local activists seem to have taken their bats home. They'd have been better off 'selecting' a current local (councillor, probably Sankey, or maybe Nancy Platts) to keep the door-knocking troops happy.
    It will be interesting if London Labour tries to divert local resources into propping up Keir’s boy in Kemptown at the expense of Brighton Pavilion - who presumably will be ordered to drop their “not local, doesn’t live here” attacks. In my experience telling Brightonians what to do rarely ends well.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Trump remains in a very strong position. Not a done deal, not at all. But he is in a very strong position.

    Most of this is due to lies of course. So, even yesterday, he was saying his country had gone to hell and that "millions" of people out of prisons were invading it causing chaos. In the real world violent crime in the US is at a 50 year low. it was last this low in the early 1970s when the population was 100m less. In per capita terms it is astonishingly low.
    if this huge wave of immigrants is causing a crime spree where are the crimes?

    Trump's inevitable answer is that the FBI statistics are "fake news". Well.

    Agree. Maybe the most predictable and the most odd thing about yesterday's result (I expected a failure to get all 12 agreeing, and was wrong) is that it doesn't seem to change anything at all. It would be nice to be wrong about that too; but the USA appears to be still in that extraordinary state in which there is no safe, middle, objective, neutral ground in which to boringly evaluate things from the viewpoint of a common core of values. In this it resembles Israel/Palestine.

    (Is this is the sort of thing which a mixture of BBC, UK traditions of academia, the monarchy, and a fairly non politicised judiciary help to preserve thus far on our side of the pond, and which the present government has tried to undermine?)
    Yes. America is showing us why a politicised legal system can be a really bad idea. The same goes for the ECHR and even our own Supreme Court (a stupid invention anyway)
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,390
    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position
    Its how American politics works.

    The House GOP have been waging lawfare against Biden since they took control in 2022.

    The aim of taking control of Congress isn't just to pass laws but to launch investigations.

    Its perhaps an inevitable part of the separation of powers - a party can have control of one part of government, or part of a part, but cannot do anything constructive with it and so engages in something destructive instead.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 11,877
    DavidL said:

    Farooq said:

    DavidL said:

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Mainly Green I would have thought. Indeed, it is surprising to see the Greens that low. IIRC they got something like 10% of the list vote the last time.
    Constituency though. First question is: who is even standing? Not a given that Green, Alba, Reform, or the remoter fringe parties will even stand in any given seat.
    Unless they patch things up with the SNP I expect the Greens to stand in many more seats in 2026 than they did the last time.
    Yes, agreed. But when asking people who they might vote for, one of the drivers will be who they think will be available to them. One of the reasons I think the Greens could easily exceed their VI in Scotland is that they will stand in more seats than the public are currently expecting. Some people will currently be saying one party, only to vote Green when they realise that that's become an option. A small effect, probably, but an effect.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332
    Selebian said:

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Plus Reform I imagine
    Yes, I forgot them. Silly me. Especially as I live in a constituency where it’s suggested they might make a difference.
    Nige isn't coming for Priti, is he? I thought they were besties :disappointed:

    Sounds insane to think otherwise, but odds on Labour seem to be 9/2 - 4/1 range :open_mouth:
    ’nige coming for Priti’ is a mental image I could have done without.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    ToryJim said:

    Iain Dale discovers that actions have consequences

    https://x.com/adambienkov/status/1796468845965910348?s=46

    Hat tip to @HYUFD I believe he was the first to call Iain Dale's selection bid dead as a result of this.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124

    @Tomorrow'sMPs
    @tomorrowsmps
    ·
    43m
    🔴 SWANSEA WEST: it looks like Resolution Foundation CEO is being lined up for this seat.

    ====

    Wow. Another think tanker parachuting in.

    Starmer is brewing a huge problem here imho. All these 'high fliers' he is parachuting in will not want to be backbench vote fodder. They will want to be given worthwhile government jobs and get stuff done. How many experienced MPs hoping for ministerial jobs will now be pushed out of the way for these new kids?

    Though Bell is by miles one of the most interesting think wonks; up there with the IFS, RUSI, Chatham House mob who, when on the BBC etc you stop and take note because they actually know what they are talking about and talk with clarity.

    The biggest danger for the rest of us is that their talents get muted and wasted by having to lie and distort all the time just to get by.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position
    Its how American politics works.

    The House GOP have been waging lawfare against Biden since they took control in 2022.

    The aim of taking control of Congress isn't just to pass laws but to launch investigations.

    Its perhaps an inevitable part of the separation of powers - a party can have control of one part of government, or part of a part, but cannot do anything constructive with it and so engages in something destructive instead.
    American politics doesn’t always work this badly. It hasn’t been THIS dysfunctional since the civil war. Which is as ominous as it sounds

    Look at the choice of candidates for President. Its calamitous. And this at a time of great peril for the western world
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,842
    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position
    It's a rather feeble 'conspiracy to stop him' that delays the strongest and most serious cases until after the election.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,397

    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position
    Its how American politics works.

    The House GOP have been waging lawfare against Biden since they took control in 2022.

    The aim of taking control of Congress isn't just to pass laws but to launch investigations.

    Its perhaps an inevitable part of the separation of powers - a party can have control of one part of government, or part of a part, but cannot do anything constructive with it and so engages in something destructive instead.
    It's because neither side of the political divide in the US believes that they're part of a common endeavour with the other side. So it's a case of fighting the other side, procedure by procedure, in the same way that rival medieval claimants for the throne would have fought over castles.

    It mostly prevents the political differences from breaking out into actual violence, so the system has some benefit, but it's not particularly functional.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,374
    Selebian said:

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Plus Reform I imagine
    Yes, I forgot them. Silly me. Especially as I live in a constituency where it’s suggested they might make a difference.
    Nige isn't coming for Priti, is he? I thought they were besties :disappointed:

    Sounds insane to think otherwise, but odds on Labour seem to be 9/2 - 4/1 range :open_mouth:
    Yes, obviously nominations haven’t closed yet, but we appear to have the three majors, plus a perennial Green and an Independent.
    Had two communications so far, an overt election one from Labour and a rather ‘sitting on the fence’ one on a couple of locally significant issues from Dame Priti.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,218

    @Tomorrow'sMPs
    @tomorrowsmps
    ·
    43m
    🔴 SWANSEA WEST: it looks like Resolution Foundation CEO is being lined up for this seat.

    ====

    Wow. Another think tanker parachuting in.

    Starmer is brewing a huge problem here imho. All these 'high fliers' he is parachuting in will not want to be backbench vote fodder. They will want to be given worthwhile government jobs and get stuff done. How many experienced MPs hoping for ministerial jobs will now be pushed out of the way for these new kids?

    Starmer can’t win with some people, can he? If he sticks with what he has, people will bemoan the “thinness of talent on the Labour front bench”; if he actively recruits talent he is “parachuting in high fliers”.

    Seems a decent hire to me.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Trump remains in a very strong position. Not a done deal, not at all. But he is in a very strong position.

    Most of this is due to lies of course. So, even yesterday, he was saying his country had gone to hell and that "millions" of people out of prisons were invading it causing chaos. In the real world violent crime in the US is at a 50 year low. it was last this low in the early 1970s when the population was 100m less. In per capita terms it is astonishingly low.
    if this huge wave of immigrants is causing a crime spree where are the crimes?

    Trump's inevitable answer is that the FBI statistics are "fake news". Well.

    Agree. Maybe the most predictable and the most odd thing about yesterday's result (I expected a failure to get all 12 agreeing, and was wrong) is that it doesn't seem to change anything at all. It would be nice to be wrong about that too; but the USA appears to be still in that extraordinary state in which there is no safe, middle, objective, neutral ground in which to boringly evaluate things from the viewpoint of a common core of values. In this it resembles Israel/Palestine.

    (Is this is the sort of thing which a mixture of BBC, UK traditions of academia, the monarchy, and a fairly non politicised judiciary help to preserve thus far on our side of the pond, and which the present government has tried to undermine?)
    Yes. America is showing us why a politicised legal system can be a really bad idea. The same goes for the ECHR and even our own Supreme Court (a stupid invention anyway)
    I agree changing the name of our highest court was a mistake, but there has to be a UK wide consolidated highest court, and I don't think there is any evidence that it is politicised. (Requiring government to obey its own laws is not a politicised act; to do the opposite invites the fascist and the demagogue right in).
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559

    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position
    Its how American politics works.

    The House GOP have been waging lawfare against Biden since they took control in 2022.

    The aim of taking control of Congress isn't just to pass laws but to launch investigations.

    Its perhaps an inevitable part of the separation of powers - a party can have control of one part of government, or part of a part, but cannot do anything constructive with it and so engages in something destructive instead.
    The issue is the use of the legal system to run the government.

    Thank god that the UK Supreme Court has batted away any attempt to establish it's supremacy over Parliament. I'm looking at you, Mr Lawyer In A Kimono.

    Let the legislature legislate, the judicial branch judge and the executive execute.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,926
    DM_Andy said:

    ToryJim said:

    Iain Dale discovers that actions have consequences

    https://x.com/adambienkov/status/1796468845965910348?s=46

    Hat tip to @HYUFD I believe he was the first to call Iain Dale's selection bid dead as a result of this.
    Dale has said many times that he isn't interested any more in becoming an MP, so presumably didn't think slagging off his home town would matter. Why he chose this moment to throw his hat in the ring and whether or not and how he was *persuaded* by Tory HQ to put himself forward, who knows? Rashly, he seems to have chucked his job at LBC, although he is probably popular enough to get it back with a bit of grovelling. What a chump!
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    IanB2 said:

    DM_Andy said:

    ToryJim said:

    Iain Dale discovers that actions have consequences

    https://x.com/adambienkov/status/1796468845965910348?s=46

    Hat tip to @HYUFD I believe he was the first to call Iain Dale's selection bid dead as a result of this.
    Dale has said many times that he isn't interested any more in becoming an MP, so presumably didn't think slagging off his home town would matter. Why he chose this moment to throw his hat in the ring and whether or not and how he was *persuaded* by Tory HQ to put himself forward, who knows? Rashly, he seems to have chucked his job at LBC, although he is probably popular enough to get it back with a bit of grovelling. What a chump!
    He'd have been stupid to have quit the job, except under an understanding that he'd come back if not elected. LBC would probably have been fine with that.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    glw said:

    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position

    How is it "a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point" when every juror agreed that he was guilty for 34 charges? Not one juror disagreed across all those charges. Are the jurors part of the conspiracy? Or maybe Donald Trump is a lying crook and justice is finally catching up with him.
    This particular case is just one piece of the mosaic. Tho it is itself - AIUI - driven by a district attorney who was elected explicitly to “get Trump”. You think that’s ok because Trump is awful and everyone hates him. But imagine if a case was brought against Biden by a DA elected to “get Biden”

    And the bigger picture definitely reveals a “conspiracy” to stop Trump. Take the lab leak hypothesis. One of the reasons it was so vigorously and fraudulently suppressed is because it was associated with Trump and it was felt that if it gained traction it would help Trump in the election

    And it might have done - who knows

    So democrats put pressure on Facebook and Twitter to silence an entirely plausible theory about the biggest health disaster in global history

    You don’t have to be a flat earther to perceive that the left liberal establishment in the USA is out to get Trump. They ARE

    And perhaps that is valid - he is a menace to democracy. I can see that argument too
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124
    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Trump remains in a very strong position. Not a done deal, not at all. But he is in a very strong position.

    Most of this is due to lies of course. So, even yesterday, he was saying his country had gone to hell and that "millions" of people out of prisons were invading it causing chaos. In the real world violent crime in the US is at a 50 year low. it was last this low in the early 1970s when the population was 100m less. In per capita terms it is astonishingly low.
    if this huge wave of immigrants is causing a crime spree where are the crimes?

    Trump's inevitable answer is that the FBI statistics are "fake news". Well.

    Agree. Maybe the most predictable and the most odd thing about yesterday's result (I expected a failure to get all 12 agreeing, and was wrong) is that it doesn't seem to change anything at all. It would be nice to be wrong about that too; but the USA appears to be still in that extraordinary state in which there is no safe, middle, objective, neutral ground in which to boringly evaluate things from the viewpoint of a common core of values. In this it resembles Israel/Palestine.

    (Is this is the sort of thing which a mixture of BBC, UK traditions of academia, the monarchy, and a fairly non politicised judiciary help to preserve thus far on our side of the pond, and which the present government has tried to undermine?)
    I wouldn't be so smug to be honest. This country is as divided as I recall it being in my life, certainly since the peak of the Miners strike.

    Whether it is the B word, independence in Scotland, weird obsessions with other peoples' bits and what they do with them our society is also falling into camps who only speak to others with abuse. We are a long way behind the US but we face similar perils (as do those who bet assuming that these "independents" form a similar and decisive plank of the US electorate which will result in a rational result).
    Agree. Smugness not in order. 'Eternal vigilance' and all that. However, division itself is not the issue. It's fine. It is the procedures and institutions and even concepts that allow and process division which matter.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,980

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Is that room temperature for the Americans or for us?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,390
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position
    Its how American politics works.

    The House GOP have been waging lawfare against Biden since they took control in 2022.

    The aim of taking control of Congress isn't just to pass laws but to launch investigations.

    Its perhaps an inevitable part of the separation of powers - a party can have control of one part of government, or part of a part, but cannot do anything constructive with it and so engages in something destructive instead.
    American politics doesn’t always work this badly. It hasn’t been THIS dysfunctional since the civil war. Which is as ominous as it sounds

    Look at the choice of candidates for President. Its calamitous. And this at a time of great peril for the western world
    US politics is working better at state level:

    https://abcnews.go.com/538/americans-love-governors/story?id=109382897

    Why both parties have become more obsessed with WDC politicians is something worthy of study.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    Finding paper candidates for unwinnable seats is easy.

    Finding candidates for seats where they might win is more difficult.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    edited May 31
    Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven could depend on how Lloyd Russell-Moyle reacts. The last time he released anything was on Wednesday evening suggesting that he was not jumping ship.
    I wish Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner, and the Labour team the best of luck and hope to be celebrating Labour wins across Sussex and beyond on election night.
    My feeling is if LRM stays with the red team then any annoyance will fade quite quickly.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290

    @Tomorrow'sMPs
    @tomorrowsmps
    ·
    43m
    🔴 SWANSEA WEST: it looks like Resolution Foundation CEO is being lined up for this seat.

    ====

    Wow. Another think tanker parachuting in.

    Starmer is brewing a huge problem here imho. All these 'high fliers' he is parachuting in will not want to be backbench vote fodder. They will want to be given worthwhile government jobs and get stuff done. How many experienced MPs hoping for ministerial jobs will now be pushed out of the way for these new kids?

    Starmer can’t win with some people, can he? If he sticks with what he has, people will bemoan the “thinness of talent on the Labour front bench”; if he actively recruits talent he is “parachuting in high fliers”.

    Seems a decent hire to me.
    Don't get me wrong - I think it is a very good hire. Stick him in the Treasury with remit to make it work policy-wise for working people and the poor as Resolution have been arguing for years.

    My point is there may well be trouble with existing MPs with so many of these types being parachuted in.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    eristdoof said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Is that room temperature for the Americans or for us?
    Newton's Scale - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton_scale
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990

    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position
    Its how American politics works.

    The House GOP have been waging lawfare against Biden since they took control in 2022.

    The aim of taking control of Congress isn't just to pass laws but to launch investigations.

    Its perhaps an inevitable part of the separation of powers - a party can have control of one part of government, or part of a part, but cannot do anything constructive with it and so engages in something destructive instead.
    The issue is the use of the legal system to run the government.

    Thank god that the UK Supreme Court has batted away any attempt to establish it's supremacy over Parliament. I'm looking at you, Mr Lawyer In A Kimono.

    Let the legislature legislate, the judicial branch judge and the executive execute.
    One of the biggest problems that the US faces right now is that the likes of Thomas and Alito are bringing the Court into disrepute by refusing to recuse themselves from cases where the have shown themselves to be far from impartial. The Supreme Court has had wobbly periods before, in the run up to the Civil war and in the 1930s when it challenged much of the New Deal but having a situation where a minority of the country is willing to trust them to determine what the law is impartially is profoundly unhealthy.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position

    How is it "a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point" when every juror agreed that he was guilty for 34 charges? Not one juror disagreed across all those charges. Are the jurors part of the conspiracy? Or maybe Donald Trump is a lying crook and justice is finally catching up with him.
    This particular case is just one piece of the mosaic. Tho it is itself - AIUI - driven by a district attorney who was elected explicitly to “get Trump”. You think that’s ok because Trump is awful and everyone hates him. But imagine if a case was brought against Biden by a DA elected to “get Biden”

    And the bigger picture definitely reveals a “conspiracy” to stop Trump. Take the lab leak hypothesis. One of the reasons it was so vigorously and fraudulently suppressed is because it was associated with Trump and it was felt that if it gained traction it would help Trump in the election

    And it might have done - who knows

    So democrats put pressure on Facebook and Twitter to silence an entirely plausible theory about the biggest health disaster in global history

    You don’t have to be a flat earther to perceive that the left liberal establishment in the USA is out to get Trump. They ARE

    And perhaps that is valid - he is a menace to democracy. I can see that argument too
    If Biden was guilty of a crime then I absolutely want a DA determined to get Biden - no-one should be above the law, not even Presidents.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,595
    DavidL said:

    I wouldn't be so smug to be honest. This country is as divided as I recall it being in my life, certainly since the peak of the Miners strike.

    Whether it is the B word, independence in Scotland, weird obsessions with other peoples' bits and what they do with them our society is also falling into camps who only speak to others with abuse. We are a long way behind the US but we face similar perils (as do those who bet assuming that these "independents" form a similar and decisive plank of the US electorate which will result in a rational result).

    It's largely down to social media and the wider internet in my opinion. Every crank and would-be demagogue has a platform now. Every person can fill their every waking hour with nonsense. Fringe ideas spread widely. Lies outrun the truth. The modern media is driven from the bottom-up not the top-down. And any bad actor can push targetted propaganda and disinformation directly to entire populations with ease.

    It may well be the case that the current media/internet landscape and a working democracy are incompatible, and one or the other will go.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    Trump remains in a very strong position. Not a done deal, not at all. But he is in a very strong position.

    Most of this is due to lies of course. So, even yesterday, he was saying his country had gone to hell and that "millions" of people out of prisons were invading it causing chaos. In the real world violent crime in the US is at a 50 year low. it was last this low in the early 1970s when the population was 100m less. In per capita terms it is astonishingly low.
    if this huge wave of immigrants is causing a crime spree where are the crimes?

    Trump's inevitable answer is that the FBI statistics are "fake news". Well.

    Agree. Maybe the most predictable and the most odd thing about yesterday's result (I expected a failure to get all 12 agreeing, and was wrong) is that it doesn't seem to change anything at all. It would be nice to be wrong about that too; but the USA appears to be still in that extraordinary state in which there is no safe, middle, objective, neutral ground in which to boringly evaluate things from the viewpoint of a common core of values. In this it resembles Israel/Palestine.

    (Is this is the sort of thing which a mixture of BBC, UK traditions of academia, the monarchy, and a fairly non politicised judiciary help to preserve thus far on our side of the pond, and which the present government has tried to undermine?)
    It's changed a bit, Kirk. Trump's price did lengthen quite a bit on the news, before settling fown at a shade above evens. He would have shortened to big odds on had he won.

    So it is better for Biden now, and the US, and us, and indeed all sentient carbon-based life forms, although he still remains favorite and extreme evidence of some fundamental flaws in the American system.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,045
    Note though that even on the betting markets Trump has now fallen below a 50% chance to be next POTUS since the guilty verdict.

    Overall only a small fraction of voters are likely to change their vote because of it but in a tight election they could be decisive.

    'Overall, two-thirds (67%) said a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote..Roughly 1 in 6 voters (17%) said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump. That was true of a quarter of nonwhites and 1 in 5 voters who make less than $50,000 a year and those under 45.

    Small, but perhaps important, percentages of core Trump voter groups also said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he were found guilty — those who live in small towns (17%), whites without college degrees (14%), those who live in rural areas (11%) and Republicans (10%).

    11% of independents said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump.'


    https://www.npr.org/2024/05/30/nx-s1-4974598/trump-verdict-trial-voters-presidential-election
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    I wouldn't be so smug to be honest. This country is as divided as I recall it being in my life, certainly since the peak of the Miners strike.

    Whether it is the B word, independence in Scotland, weird obsessions with other peoples' bits and what they do with them our society is also falling into camps who only speak to others with abuse. We are a long way behind the US but we face similar perils (as do those who bet assuming that these "independents" form a similar and decisive plank of the US electorate which will result in a rational result).

    It's largely down to social media and the wider internet in my opinion. Every crank and would-be demagogue has a platform now. Every person can fill their every waking hour with nonsense. Fringe ideas spread widely. Lies outrun the truth. The modern media is driven from the bottom-up not the top-down. And any bad actor can push targetted propaganda and disinformation directly to entire populations with ease.

    It may well be the case that the current media/internet landscape and a working democracy are incompatible, and one or the other will go.
    Thank god none of us are like that, eh?
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146
    I reckon Trump will have maybe lost half of the 20% of Republican primary voters who are still going Haley - I think that'll be enough to lose him quite a few states.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    DM_Andy said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position

    How is it "a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point" when every juror agreed that he was guilty for 34 charges? Not one juror disagreed across all those charges. Are the jurors part of the conspiracy? Or maybe Donald Trump is a lying crook and justice is finally catching up with him.
    This particular case is just one piece of the mosaic. Tho it is itself - AIUI - driven by a district attorney who was elected explicitly to “get Trump”. You think that’s ok because Trump is awful and everyone hates him. But imagine if a case was brought against Biden by a DA elected to “get Biden”

    And the bigger picture definitely reveals a “conspiracy” to stop Trump. Take the lab leak hypothesis. One of the reasons it was so vigorously and fraudulently suppressed is because it was associated with Trump and it was felt that if it gained traction it would help Trump in the election

    And it might have done - who knows

    So democrats put pressure on Facebook and Twitter to silence an entirely plausible theory about the biggest health disaster in global history

    You don’t have to be a flat earther to perceive that the left liberal establishment in the USA is out to get Trump. They ARE

    And perhaps that is valid - he is a menace to democracy. I can see that argument too
    If Biden was guilty of a crime then I absolutely want a DA determined to get Biden - no-one should be above the law, not even Presidents.
    Perhaps it’s just my British discomfort about prosecutors being elected to “get” ANYONE

    It simply feels wrong. A bad idea
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124
    DM_Andy said:

    Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven could depend on how Lloyd Russell-Moyle reacts. The last time he released anything was on Wednesday evening suggesting that he was not jumping ship.

    I wish Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner, and the Labour team the best of luck and hope to be celebrating Labour wins across Sussex and beyond on election night.
    My feeling is if LRM stays with the red team then any annoyance will fade quite quickly.
    The two or three million extra votes Labour needs to win don't come from that exotic group of people who warm to LRM. they come from the centre right.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,559
    DM_Andy said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position

    How is it "a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point" when every juror agreed that he was guilty for 34 charges? Not one juror disagreed across all those charges. Are the jurors part of the conspiracy? Or maybe Donald Trump is a lying crook and justice is finally catching up with him.
    This particular case is just one piece of the mosaic. Tho it is itself - AIUI - driven by a district attorney who was elected explicitly to “get Trump”. You think that’s ok because Trump is awful and everyone hates him. But imagine if a case was brought against Biden by a DA elected to “get Biden”

    And the bigger picture definitely reveals a “conspiracy” to stop Trump. Take the lab leak hypothesis. One of the reasons it was so vigorously and fraudulently suppressed is because it was associated with Trump and it was felt that if it gained traction it would help Trump in the election

    And it might have done - who knows

    So democrats put pressure on Facebook and Twitter to silence an entirely plausible theory about the biggest health disaster in global history

    You don’t have to be a flat earther to perceive that the left liberal establishment in the USA is out to get Trump. They ARE

    And perhaps that is valid - he is a menace to democracy. I can see that argument too
    If Biden was guilty of a crime then I absolutely want a DA determined to get Biden - no-one should be above the law, not even Presidents.
    The wider problem is related both the customary practise and Trump.

    In this case he stupidly committed a number of crimes in silencing a bimbo eruption (TM Bill Clinton). Politicians have silenced bimbos with cash many times before. Probably used campaign cash to do so. The Orange One probably thought that he was just doing the same thing - but he went much further across various lines than he predecessors.

    So you have Trump and MAGA screaming that it's unfair "Everyone does this" and the legitimate point that Trump & Co. actually broke the law.

    A big part of the MAGA thing is that the political system is corrupt and that Washington is a pile of legalised bribery.

    So to the MAGA types, the difference between legalised crime and straight up illegality is just hypocrisy.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,120
    https://x.com/Nadine_Writes/status/1796466290397511732?s=19
    I'm guessing Labour won't be publicising this particular letter
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,595

    A big part of the MAGA thing is that the political system is corrupt and that Washington is a pile of legalised bribery.

    Which is why they are supporting Donald "give me a billion to gut energy regulations and cut energy taxes" Trump.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,112
    DavidL said:



    I wouldn't be so smug to be honest. This country is as divided as I recall it being in my life, certainly since the peak of the Miners strike.

    Whether it is the B word, independence in Scotland, weird obsessions with other peoples' bits and what they do with them our society is also falling into camps who only speak to others with abuse. We are a long way behind the US but we face similar perils (as do those who bet assuming that these "independents" form a similar and decisive plank of the US electorate which will result in a rational result).

    It will be interesting to see how those who end up on the wrong side of the GE result react. After 14 years in office, how will Conservatives react to defeat and opposition?

    There's a line between justifiable criticism of a Government and holding it to account on the one side (an integral part of the democratic process) and obstructive negative criticism from minute one (which I'm sure we'll see from the diehard anti-Labour people on Twitter and from a few on here as well I suspect).

    Will anyone who didn't vote Labour wish the new Government well? I will - some will, I fear, be in opposition mode before Starmer is back from the Palace. The truth is the Government is your Government too whether you voted for it or not.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,045
    edited May 31

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    On that poll though the Scottish Tories hold the balance of power. So unless Swinney promises Ross he and Forbes would dump indyref2 and shift to more Thatcherite economics, the Tories would abstain and Sarwar would still end up FM as Labour + LDs would have more MSPs than SNP + Green
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,318
    ToryJim said:

    Iain Dale discovers that actions have consequences

    https://x.com/adambienkov/status/1796468845965910348?s=46

    The irony is that Iain Dale does actually live in Tunbridge Wells, even though he said he does not like the place.
  • Options
    DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 982
    Leon said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position

    How is it "a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point" when every juror agreed that he was guilty for 34 charges? Not one juror disagreed across all those charges. Are the jurors part of the conspiracy? Or maybe Donald Trump is a lying crook and justice is finally catching up with him.
    This particular case is just one piece of the mosaic. Tho it is itself - AIUI - driven by a district attorney who was elected explicitly to “get Trump”. You think that’s ok because Trump is awful and everyone hates him. But imagine if a case was brought against Biden by a DA elected to “get Biden”

    And the bigger picture definitely reveals a “conspiracy” to stop Trump. Take the lab leak hypothesis. One of the reasons it was so vigorously and fraudulently suppressed is because it was associated with Trump and it was felt that if it gained traction it would help Trump in the election

    And it might have done - who knows

    So democrats put pressure on Facebook and Twitter to silence an entirely plausible theory about the biggest health disaster in global history

    You don’t have to be a flat earther to perceive that the left liberal establishment in the USA is out to get Trump. They ARE

    And perhaps that is valid - he is a menace to democracy. I can see that argument too
    If Biden was guilty of a crime then I absolutely want a DA determined to get Biden - no-one should be above the law, not even Presidents.
    Perhaps it’s just my British discomfort about prosecutors being elected to “get” ANYONE

    It simply feels wrong. A bad idea
    It feels wrong to elect prosecutors full stop but prosecutors being out to "get" criminals is basically their job description.
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,333

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Art history you say, very good, almost had me. :)
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839
    ydoethur said:

    Selebian said:

    Fpt

    Carnyx said:

    That's obviously the Holyrood list only, though, so different from Westminster (and incomplete without the constituency data which it tends to complement rather than emulate).

    Does anyone have the full lot?
    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    🚨NEW Holyrood Constituency VI for @TheScotsman

    📈SNP back to holding a narrow lead over Labour

    🎗️SNP 35% (=)
    🌹LAB 34% (-1)
    🌳CON 17% (-1)
    🔶LD 8% (=)
    ⬜️Other 6% (+1)

    1,067 Scottish adults, 24-28 May

    (change from 3-8 May)

    'Ok lads, any way we can keep Branchform going until 2026?'
    Is the ‘Other’ largely Alba, does anyone know?
    Plus Reform I imagine
    Yes, I forgot them. Silly me. Especially as I live in a constituency where it’s suggested they might make a difference.
    Nige isn't coming for Priti, is he? I thought they were besties :disappointed:

    Sounds insane to think otherwise, but odds on Labour seem to be 9/2 - 4/1 range :open_mouth:
    ’nige coming for Priti’ is a mental image I could have done without.
    You, sir, have a filthy mind.

    (Full disclosure: it did also cross my mind as I wrote it, but the double entendre was not intentional)
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,318
    OT The Rest is Entertainment discusses the televising of parliament.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGFoWw-3XiU&t=1197s

    Basically, MPs shot down all the broadcasters' requests except for moving the bald spots and decolletage camera.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,839

    ToryJim said:

    Iain Dale discovers that actions have consequences

    https://x.com/adambienkov/status/1796468845965910348?s=46

    The irony is that Iain Dale does actually live in Tunbridge Wells, even though he said he does not like the place.
    Deselected of Tunbridge Wells :wink:

    (the more accurate un/not selected of Tunbridge Wells doesn't fit so well)
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,039
    ToryJim said:

    Iain Dale discovers that actions have consequences

    https://x.com/adambienkov/status/1796468845965910348?s=46

    LOL
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,290
    Chameleon said:

    I reckon Trump will have maybe lost half of the 20% of Republican primary voters who are still going Haley - I think that'll be enough to lose him quite a few states.

    Unless she is veep?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,990
    Leon said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position

    How is it "a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point" when every juror agreed that he was guilty for 34 charges? Not one juror disagreed across all those charges. Are the jurors part of the conspiracy? Or maybe Donald Trump is a lying crook and justice is finally catching up with him.
    This particular case is just one piece of the mosaic. Tho it is itself - AIUI - driven by a district attorney who was elected explicitly to “get Trump”. You think that’s ok because Trump is awful and everyone hates him. But imagine if a case was brought against Biden by a DA elected to “get Biden”

    And the bigger picture definitely reveals a “conspiracy” to stop Trump. Take the lab leak hypothesis. One of the reasons it was so vigorously and fraudulently suppressed is because it was associated with Trump and it was felt that if it gained traction it would help Trump in the election

    And it might have done - who knows

    So democrats put pressure on Facebook and Twitter to silence an entirely plausible theory about the biggest health disaster in global history

    You don’t have to be a flat earther to perceive that the left liberal establishment in the USA is out to get Trump. They ARE

    And perhaps that is valid - he is a menace to democracy. I can see that argument too
    If Biden was guilty of a crime then I absolutely want a DA determined to get Biden - no-one should be above the law, not even Presidents.
    Perhaps it’s just my British discomfort about prosecutors being elected to “get” ANYONE

    It simply feels wrong. A bad idea
    One of my favourite quotes adopted by the UK courts from a Canadian court:

    "It cannot be over-emphasised that the purpose of a criminal prosecution is not to obtain a conviction, it is to lay before a jury what the Crown considers to be credible evidence relevant to what is alleged to be a crime. Counsel have a duty to see that all available legal proof of the facts is presented: it should be done firmly and pressed to its legitimate strength, but it must also be done fairly. The role of prosecutor excludes any notion of winning or losing; his function is a matter of public duty than which in civil life there can be none charges with greater responsibility."

    In the heat of battle it is not easy to live up to this. Drawing out evidence that helps the accused or raises issues with a Crown witness does not feel natural but it absolutely needs to be done. Making an accused person look foolish or dishonest (as opposed to the usual inept) is particularly hard to resist, at least in my case. But it is the only way that a fair justice system can operate.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    DM_Andy said:

    Leon said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    A couple of my American friends have fallen into the MAGA cesspit. Thankfully no family.

    The MAGA line is that this prosecution and the conviction are proof of the conspiracy to steal the election. And even people on the fringes of this believe that.

    And it's not just the room temperature IQ crowd - one of the people I know has a PhD in Art History from a UK university. Yet he is fully down with the Orange Baboon.

    Both things can be true. Trump is a lying villain who deserves a conviction - true. But there is also a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point - also true, or at least arguable

    That is why America is in such a dangerous position

    How is it "a conspiracy to stop him in almost any way, stretching the law to breaking point" when every juror agreed that he was guilty for 34 charges? Not one juror disagreed across all those charges. Are the jurors part of the conspiracy? Or maybe Donald Trump is a lying crook and justice is finally catching up with him.
    This particular case is just one piece of the mosaic. Tho it is itself - AIUI - driven by a district attorney who was elected explicitly to “get Trump”. You think that’s ok because Trump is awful and everyone hates him. But imagine if a case was brought against Biden by a DA elected to “get Biden”

    And the bigger picture definitely reveals a “conspiracy” to stop Trump. Take the lab leak hypothesis. One of the reasons it was so vigorously and fraudulently suppressed is because it was associated with Trump and it was felt that if it gained traction it would help Trump in the election

    And it might have done - who knows

    So democrats put pressure on Facebook and Twitter to silence an entirely plausible theory about the biggest health disaster in global history

    You don’t have to be a flat earther to perceive that the left liberal establishment in the USA is out to get Trump. They ARE

    And perhaps that is valid - he is a menace to democracy. I can see that argument too
    If Biden was guilty of a crime then I absolutely want a DA determined to get Biden - no-one should be above the law, not even Presidents.
    Perhaps it’s just my British discomfort about prosecutors being elected to “get” ANYONE

    It simply feels wrong. A bad idea
    It feels wrong to elect prosecutors full stop but prosecutors being out to "get" criminals is basically their job description.
    Biden has arguably broken several laws. Some of them deeply serious. I won’t trouble the PB mods with the detailed rumours that might invite lawyers but they are out there and far from insubstantial

    So you’d be ok with a Republican DA being elected on the basis of “getting Biden” and then pursuing him ferociously in this year before the election?

    You wouldn’t think that was quite provocative?
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,039
    Not Just an Ayrshire hotelier but a Wrestlemania star

    https://youtu.be/5NsrwH9I9vE
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