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Who shall win the first debate? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited June 8 in General
imageWho shall win the first debate? – politicalbetting.com

Ladbrokes have a market on who wil the CNN debate scheduled for the end of June and I can see no value in this market. I suspect the response will be a plague on both your houses as the debate will be a bit of a disorganised poo-show and that could lead to either side winning.

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  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    edited May 22
    ' I suspect the response will be a plague on both your houses as the debate will be a bit of a disorganised poo-show and that could lead to either side winning. '

    In which case, Trump is the value, no?

    edit; First, ffs? Come on guys, wake up.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Republicans will say Trump won it, Democrats will say Biden won it. Next.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    TimS said:

    Republicans will say Trump won it, Democrats will say Biden won it. Next.

    Which makes Trump the value bet.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    TimS said:

    Republicans will say Trump won it, Democrats will say Biden won it. Next.

    So, if there are more Republicans than Democrats, then Trump wins the poll. But then there are the Republican supporters of Nikki Haley to consider. And Biden's pretty terrible record and approval numbers.

    I think this is a bit complicated.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    The big risk for Trump is that he says something completely silly.

    (Well, that's not a risk, it's a certainty. But I meant as in says 'Nikki Haley was in charge of the Capitol as Speaker on the day my triumphant re-election was stolen from me by Judge Merchan ruling ILLEGALLY that I defrauded New York by quoting the REAL VALUE of Mar a Lago the most VALUABLE and BEAUTIFUL property in the world!')

    Because it would neutralise his attack line against Biden - that Biden is old and confused.

    (Further point - Biden has always flubbed like that. Partly because of his stammer, partly because he is rather impulsive and fails to fully engage brain before opening mouth.)
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    DopermeanDopermean Posts: 126
    edited May 22
    It's a bet on the CNN polling sample isn't it rather than the debate. Just a coin toss.
    In which case Trump is the value bet.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    The format of course doesn't favour Trump.

    Small debates are just not his thing, although he's the world's greatest mass debater.
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462

    Tory voter suppression laid bare.

    Rishi Sunak’s team blocked proposals to allow veterans to use their veteran IDs to vote because it would “open the floodgates” to students being able to use their ID cards too.
    Perish the thought that students should be allowed to vote

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1793016479899685077

    Rayner was right.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Dopermean said:

    It's a bet on the CNN polling sample isn't it rather than the debate. Just a coin toss.
    In which case Trump is the value bet.

    Well, that doesn't favour Trump. He's a useless tosser.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Boy, Rayner was not right. Taking exception to Sunak or a particular Sunak action is fine. Labelling a large group of people as 'scum' is wretched, especially in politics which democratically depends on the quaint notion that people can have different but still valid opinions.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    Hopefully one or both will be so embarrassing that they have to be replaced as candidate.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    The way in which Trump was chumped into two debates on platforms he does not like, not on his own terms, is amusing:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/15/politics/debates-joe-biden-donald-trump/index.html
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    A bit late for the Venice/prison PB discussions, but have we done this:

    https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1792955785531601232
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    Hopefully one or both will be so embarrassing that they have to be replaced as candidate.

    The only way either gets replaced is if they (1) die (2) become medically incapacitated (3) end up in jail.

    And I'm not sure the Republicans will ever accept (2) applies to Trump anyway.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    Tory voter suppression laid bare.

    Rishi Sunak’s team blocked proposals to allow veterans to use their veteran IDs to vote because it would “open the floodgates” to students being able to use their ID cards too.
    Perish the thought that students should be allowed to vote

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1793016479899685077

    Quite right. Veterans voted for Mr Attlee. Damn pinkos the lot of 'em.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    ydoethur said:

    Hopefully one or both will be so embarrassing that they have to be replaced as candidate.

    The only way either gets replaced is if they (1) die (2) become medically incapacitated (3) end up in jail.

    And I'm not sure the Republicans will ever accept (2) applies to Trump anyway.
    Trump Derangement Syndrome would prevent them from accepting (1) also.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906

    Hopefully one or both will be so embarrassing that they have to be replaced as candidate.

    Past experience suggests otherwise.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    ydoethur said:

    Hopefully one or both will be so embarrassing that they have to be replaced as candidate.

    The only way either gets replaced is if they (1) die (2) become medically incapacitated (3) end up in jail.

    And I'm not sure the Republicans will ever accept (2) applies to Trump anyway.
    Well they're already a long way towards all three.

    A public debate might speed things up.
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    Who wins. Depends on the person watching and their political view.

    Will be interesting to see what the independents say.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    ydoethur said:

    Hopefully one or both will be so embarrassing that they have to be replaced as candidate.

    The only way either gets replaced is if they (1) die (2) become medically incapacitated (3) end up in jail.

    And I'm not sure the Republicans will ever accept (2) applies to Trump anyway.
    Or (3), and quite possibly not (1) either.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Tory voter suppression laid bare.

    Rishi Sunak’s team blocked proposals to allow veterans to use their veteran IDs to vote because it would “open the floodgates” to students being able to use their ID cards too.
    Perish the thought that students should be allowed to vote

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1793016479899685077

    When do we get formal review of the impact of voter ID on turnout? Is the Electoral Commission looking at the May Locals?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Hopefully one or both will be so embarrassing that they have to be replaced as candidate.

    The only way either gets replaced is if they (1) die (2) become medically incapacitated (3) end up in jail.

    And I'm not sure the Republicans will ever accept (2) applies to Trump anyway.
    Or (3), and quite possibly not (1) either.
    TBF, if I were given a choice between Reagan's corpse and Trump as POTUS, I'd be at Simi Valley with a shovel.

    But it was established in 1872 that dead people are not eligible for the presidency.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707

    Tory voter suppression laid bare.

    Rishi Sunak’s team blocked proposals to allow veterans to use their veteran IDs to vote because it would “open the floodgates” to students being able to use their ID cards too.
    Perish the thought that students should be allowed to vote

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1793016479899685077

    Quite right. Veterans voted for Mr Attlee. Damn pinkos the lot of 'em.
    It may well be relevant today, too. Many veterans have suffered Conservative policies - procurement, MoD housing, and so on - quite apart from being relatively young with small families to house and no longer in MoD housing for what that is worth.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,735
    On topic, the likely winner is RFK, who’s still seen as an outsider but has been coming up with some very fringe viewpoints in low-profile podcast interviews in recent weeks, which aren’t going to get challenged if he’s not on the debate floor.

    He not only thinks that vaccines are the work of the Devil (not just covid vaccines, any vaccines), he also thinks that abortion should be totally unregulated, allowed at any time for any reason (although he’s now trying to walk that one back after a backlash). https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/rfk-jr-abortion-ban-interview-b2392827.html
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    Brains Trust.

    What is the best way to get an awareness of which Conservative MPs will be most likely to survive the coming Election?

    (I was listening to a speech by Theresa Villiers in a debate in Parliament about of all things LTNs - I thought we had dealt with that one, and it came across as ... interesting.

    Her majority im Chipping Barnet is about the same as IDS's, ie not a lot, and I'm wondering how high the likelihood is that she will be down the road when the time comes.)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited May 22
    If Trump is convicted and sentenced to house arrest will there either be a debate at all or could it take place with Biden and Trump in separate locations?
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump is convicted and sentences to house arrest will there either be a debate at all or could it take place with Biden and Trump in separate locations?

    It seems unlikely that he will get a custodial sentence overlapping with the date of the first debate, or indeed any of the debates. The Stormy Daniels case is unlikely to lead to prison time. (If it does, it would probably be brief.) The overthrowing the election cases won't start in time. Judge Cannon is utterly corrupt and ensuring the secret documents trial is very delayed.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085
    edited May 22

    Another really poor interview by Emma Barnett on Today this morning, this time with the Chancellor. She really does like her own voice far too much.

    I'm definitely not a fan of the "Macro policies are all very well but Mrs Trellis from North Wales has emailed to say' thing. How do we know that Mrs Trellis isn't just the shadow Chancellor making things up? Or the producer?

    Keep that nonsense on Radio 5 please.

    Unfortunately I am still trying to break the Today habit and have times radio cued up but forget to listen.

    It’s was an absolutely pointless interview where the interviewer has their mind set on asking a specific line of questioning regarding micro and “feels”and the chancellor is trying to explain why the big picture actually affects those feels.

    EB just did not want to analyse what Hunt was saying and then question him on those comments, she just wanted to ask him why nurses aren’t feeling really rich and does Hunt feel richer - as usual an attempt at a gotcha rather than a serious question - allied with her repeatedly dropping he is a landlord.

    There are valid questions about Hunt feeling richer and being a landlord but this was as you wrote just pure Radio 5 bollocks.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump is convicted and sentenced to house arrest will there either be a debate at all or could it take place with Biden and Trump in separate locations?

    Trump is certain to appeal any conviction, delaying any possible sentence.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520
    On topic, surely if the debate is a "disorganised poo-show that could lead to either side winning" (I agree), then there's clear value if one candidate is quoted at 2/1 - particularly with the polls close to level at the moment and huge levels of partisanship.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump is convicted and sentenced to house arrest will there either be a debate at all or could it take place with Biden and Trump in separate locations?

    "We're coming to you live from Rikers Island, where President Biden is visiting President Trump for the first debate."
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    MattW said:

    Brains Trust.

    What is the best way to get an awareness of which Conservative MPs will be most likely to survive the coming Election?

    (I was listening to a speech by Theresa Villiers in a debate in Parliament about of all things LTNs - I thought we had dealt with that one, and it came across as ... interesting.

    Her majority im Chipping Barnet is about the same as IDS's, ie not a lot, and I'm wondering how high the likelihood is that she will be down the road when the time comes.)

    According to the constituency's Wikipedia page, boundary changes add 5,000-ish to the notional Conservative majority, or about 10 per cent of likely turnout. You could apply opinion poll results to that.

    But The Economist has done the work for you. Type any constituency name at:-
    https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    edited May 22
    Vennells up in ten minutes.

    I am expecting three days of the same tripe we got from Alwyn Lyons yesterday - dogged lying and memory lapses - but you never know. Minister of the Church and all that...she may take the oath seriously.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    ydoethur said:

    Hopefully one or both will be so embarrassing that they have to be replaced as candidate.

    The only way either gets replaced is if they (1) die (2) become medically incapacitated (3) end up in jail.

    And I'm not sure the Republicans will ever accept (2) applies to Trump anyway.
    Most MAGA's won't accept (1) either

    Await the resurrection
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    boulay said:

    Another really poor interview by Emma Barnett on Today this morning, this time with the Chancellor. She really does like her own voice far too much.

    I'm definitely not a fan of the "Macro policies are all very well but Mrs Trellis from North Wales has emailed to say' thing. How do we know that Mrs Trellis isn't just the shadow Chancellor making things up? Or the producer?

    Keep that nonsense on Radio 5 please.

    Unfortunately I am still trying to break the Today habit and have times radio cued up but forget to listen.

    It’s was an absolutely pointless interview where the interviewer has their mind set on asking a specific line of questioning regarding micro and “feels”and the chancellor is trying to explain why the big picture actually affects those feels.

    EB just did not want to analyse what Hunt was saying and then question him on those comments, she just wanted to ask him why nurses aren’t feeling really rich and does Hunt feel richer - as usual an attempt at a gotcha rather than a serious question - allied with her repeatedly dropping he is a landlord.

    There are valid questions about Hunt feeling richer and being a landlord but this was as you wrote just pure Radio 5 bollocks.
    First, gotcha questioning is more Radio 4, especially the Today programme, rather than Radio 5. Introducing questions from specific listeners has probably crept in from PMQs. The idea is that politicians are more likely to take the question seriously rather than insult an actual voter.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061

    On topic, surely if the debate is a "disorganised poo-show that could lead to either side winning" (I agree), then there's clear value if one candidate is quoted at 2/1 - particularly with the polls close to level at the moment and huge levels of partisanship.

    iirc the debate format is no audience, and muted microphones while the other man speaks. Probably a snooze-fest is more likely than a poo-show, unless one or other has a brain freeze, as has afflicted both of them recently.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    Former Sky News Political Editor Tweets in response to Ireland recognising Palestine

    "Terrorism works"



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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085

    Vennells up in ten minutes.

    I am expecting three days of the same tripe we got from Alwyn Lyons yesterday - dogged lying and memory lapses - but you never know. Minister of the Church and all that...she may take the oath seriously.

    It's interesting. What a club it was. Highly, highly mediocre people in positions of power (all getting huge amounts of wedge) all agreeing with each other and no one dissenting or questioning about anything.

    As Jason Beer noted to Angela vdB "what exactly _did_ you do at the Post Office".

    None of them knew anything about anything with ofc Jarnail Singh being the master of not knowing anything in particular how to save a file.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    edited May 22

    Another really poor interview by Emma Barnett on Today this morning, this time with the Chancellor. She really does like her own voice far too much.

    I'm definitely not a fan of the "Macro policies are all very well but Mrs Trellis from North Wales has emailed to say' thing. How do we know that Mrs Trellis isn't just the shadow Chancellor making things up? Or the producer?

    Keep that nonsense on Radio 5 please.

    She was using a particular example to make a general point which the Chancellor didn't really answer.

    You might not like the way she framed the question, but the twin issues of housing costs, and actual changes in standard of living for large sectors of the workforce are perfectly valid ones to raise.

    I note you ignored the point about rental costs rising 9% in the last year. Which is somewhat at odds with 2.3% inflation.

    That's why individuals' experiences matter.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    And it's the J-Dog! Of course it is. Here we go.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Lindsay Graham on the ICC:

    https://x.com/hotspothotspot/status/1793030797592535192

    "If they'll do this to Israel, we're next."
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,760
    So Sir Wyn is in person... and giving Vennells the warning on self-incrimination
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906

    HYUFD said:

    If Trump is convicted and sentenced to house arrest will there either be a debate at all or could it take place with Biden and Trump in separate locations?

    Trump is certain to appeal any conviction, delaying any possible sentence.
    Even if he didn't (which is unlikely), there's still a significant delay before sentencing.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437

    Lindsay Graham on the ICC:

    https://x.com/hotspothotspot/status/1793030797592535192

    "If they'll do this to Israel, we're next."

    Coin dropping
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    Lennon said:

    So Sir Wyn is in person... and giving Vennells the warning on self-incrimination

    He rarely intervenes, but if he does it is usually a sign that the witness is in deep shit.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Trump is convicted and sentenced to house arrest will there either be a debate at all or could it take place with Biden and Trump in separate locations?

    Trump is certain to appeal any conviction, delaying any possible sentence.
    Even if he didn't (which is unlikely), there's still a significant delay before sentencing.
    His bigger risk is having bail revoked as a result of further contempts of court. He'd no doubt appeal that too and maybe a friendly judge might overrule - though I don't know what processes are possible in such a case. But the possibility is there.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,735
    It’s Paula Vennells Day!!!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    Sandpit said:

    It’s Paula Vennells Day!!!

    Just turned it on and what's the first thing I hear? "I was too trusting."

    What a waste of time.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    edited May 22

    Vennells up in ten minutes.

    I am expecting three days of the same tripe we got from Alwyn Lyons yesterday - dogged lying and memory lapses - but you never know. Minister of the Church and all that...she may take the oath seriously.

    Alwen's tactics seem to have paid off - she was barely mentioned in the media this morning.

    This was about all I could find on google for the past 24 hours (other than the video feeds).

    ..Four months after leaving the Post Office, Lyons was awarded an OBE in the 2018 New Year’s Honours list. This was picked up by Sussex World (Lyons lives in Worthing), who reported her as saying:
    “It’s been amazing to get recognition. It was such a surprise. I was doing something I really believed in.”
    On her 33 years at the Post Office, Lyons told the paper: “When I said ‘We need to change things’, they listened… It’s a fantastic organisation to have worked for. There are so many different jobs you can do and opportunities. I liked the people I worked with, all the teams I worked with and for.”..
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s Paula Vennells Day!!!

    Just turned it on and what's the first thing I hear? "I was too trusting."

    What a waste of time.
    They all were.
    Who actually was it they were trusting ?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Why does it say only 125 people watching the live stream?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljlKH7qLiyM
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s Paula Vennells Day!!!

    Just turned it on and what's the first thing I hear? "I was too trusting."

    What a waste of time.
    They all were.
    Who actually was it they were trusting ?
    This is the clever line counsel for the inquiry are taking. They always ask eg "whose line" when anyone ever says "the line was XYZ...."
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Long tweet -

    Scathing assessment by Ben Wallace (in full)

    Foreign Office HQ is where British interests go to die

    "It is hard to pick out a low point from my dealings with the Foreign Office when I was defence secretary. Hard not because there weren’t any low points, but because there were so many.


    https://x.com/DianaHarding7/status/1793163115611222113
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,229
    Nigelb said:

    Another really poor interview by Emma Barnett on Today this morning, this time with the Chancellor. She really does like her own voice far too much.

    I'm definitely not a fan of the "Macro policies are all very well but Mrs Trellis from North Wales has emailed to say' thing. How do we know that Mrs Trellis isn't just the shadow Chancellor making things up? Or the producer?

    Keep that nonsense on Radio 5 please.

    She was using a particular example to make a general point which the Chancellor didn't really answer.

    You might not like the way she framed the question, but the twin issues of housing costs, and actual changes in standard of living for large sectors of the workforce are perfectly valid ones to raise.

    I note you ignored the point about rental costs rising 9% in the last year. Which is somewhat at odds with 2.3% inflation.

    That's why individuals' experiences matter.
    I didn't ignore anything, I just thought it was a poor interview. Do you think the question was from an actual voter? How can anyone be sure?

    We all know Jeremy Hunt is a landlord and that some people may not be feeling rich at the moment but there's no need to spend more than half of the interview talking over him in order to tell us this. I honestly think she'd have preferred to just talk at the Chancellor for 10 minutes and had him just sit there.

    If she wanted to go down the personal route she could have asked a question about why investment in rental properties is apparently so lucrative compared to other forms of investment that might be more productive for the economy, and as a side comment asked the Chancellor why he himself chose to invest that way.

    I fear 'feels' as Boulay put it has replaced actual facts.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s Paula Vennells Day!!!

    Just turned it on and what's the first thing I hear? "I was too trusting."

    What a waste of time.
    They all were.
    Who actually was it they were trusting ?
    This is the clever line counsel for the inquiry are taking. They always ask eg "whose line" when anyone ever says "the line was XYZ...."
    Them. The Ones Behind The Curtain. The Trans Gay Illegal Immigrant Alien AIs. The Lizard men in people suits.

    Every NU10Ker lives a life of fear - crouching behind their Herman Miller Aeron chair like a small child watching Dr Who in 1968. Every moment a torment as the Unknown Masters toy with lives, giving them incomprehensible orders about the organisation. An organisation that they (the NU10Kers) have no idea what it does or who they work for.

    See this documentary - https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0050873/

    We really do owe them a debt for doing this.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it say only 125 people watching the live stream?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljlKH7qLiyM


    Coz it’s fucking boring?
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,146
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it say only 125 people watching the live stream?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljlKH7qLiyM


    Coz it’s fucking boring?
    It's live on BBC too, so I guess that's where most people are watching.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it say only 125 people watching the live stream?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljlKH7qLiyM


    Coz it’s fucking boring?
    Yesterday 15,000 were watching a more boring witness.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it say only 125 people watching the live stream?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljlKH7qLiyM


    Coz it’s fucking boring?
    It's live on BBC too, so I guess that's where most people are watching.
    That’s another 13 people then

    Don’t get me wrong. I watched the ITV drama. It’s outrageous. I hope these mediocre fuckwits get keel-hauled etc etc

    But in the end it is still the post office and it’s still about sub-postmasters, the boffo potensh is limited
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Former Sky News Political Editor Tweets in response to Ireland recognising Palestine

    "Terrorism works"



    Was that in reference to the foundation of the state of Ireland, State of Israel or of Palestine?

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    SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 647
    I'm watching and it's getting sticky for Paula
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,169
    Foxy said:

    Former Sky News Political Editor Tweets in response to Ireland recognising Palestine

    "Terrorism works"

    Was that in reference to the foundation of the state of Ireland, State of Israel or of Palestine?

    Suffragettes.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it say only 125 people watching the live stream?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljlKH7qLiyM


    Coz it’s fucking boring?
    It's live on BBC too, so I guess that's where most people are watching.
    That’s another 13 people then

    Don’t get me wrong. I watched the ITV drama. It’s outrageous. I hope these mediocre fuckwits get keel-hauled etc etc

    But in the end it is still the post office and it’s still about sub-postmasters, the boffo potensh is limited
    I wonder if they are going to have to tiptoe around some aspects. Ms Vennels should not be giving evidence, she should be facing charges. It would be uncharacteristic for someone in a public position to do so but we may well make an exception for her. In which event she has a right to not self incriminate.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246

    Former Sky News Political Editor Tweets in response to Ireland recognising Palestine

    "Terrorism works"



    Source.

    https://x.com/adamboultonTABB/status/1793183009820033376
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    SandraMc said:

    I'm watching and it's getting sticky for Paula

    Yep. Some bombshell imessages have been surfaced.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it say only 125 people watching the live stream?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljlKH7qLiyM


    Coz it’s fucking boring?
    It's live on BBC too, so I guess that's where most people are watching.
    That’s another 13 people then

    Don’t get me wrong. I watched the ITV drama. It’s outrageous. I hope these mediocre fuckwits get keel-hauled etc etc

    But in the end it is still the post office and it’s still about sub-postmasters, the boffo potensh is limited
    It is more theatre than the ITV drama. Counsel for the inquiry and in particular Jason Beer is giving an object lesson in domain (law, plus subject of the enquiry, technique) expertise. It is thrilling to watch someone as much a master of their craft in action.

    Similar to, say, a travel writer describing his breakfast of scrambled eggs on toast in Puglia.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Definitely something weird about that 125 figure on YouTube. Even the least interesting witnesses have been getting a few thousand views on the live stream.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 52,543
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it say only 125 people watching the live stream?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljlKH7qLiyM


    Coz it’s fucking boring?
    It's live on BBC too, so I guess that's where most people are watching.
    That’s another 13 people then

    Don’t get me wrong. I watched the ITV drama. It’s outrageous. I hope these mediocre fuckwits get keel-hauled etc etc

    But in the end it is still the post office and it’s still about sub-postmasters, the boffo potensh is limited
    It is more theatre than the ITV drama. Counsel for the inquiry and in particular Jason Beer is giving an object lesson in domain (law, plus subject of the enquiry, technique) expertise. It is thrilling to watch someone as much a master of their craft in action.

    Similar to, say, a travel writer describing his breakfast of scrambled eggs on toast in Puglia.
    I am waiting for my trial to start this morning but Beer is certainly worth watching. A master of his craft.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it say only 125 people watching the live stream?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljlKH7qLiyM


    Coz it’s fucking boring?
    It's live on BBC too, so I guess that's where most people are watching.
    That’s another 13 people then

    Don’t get me wrong. I watched the ITV drama. It’s outrageous. I hope these mediocre fuckwits get keel-hauled etc etc

    But in the end it is still the post office and it’s still about sub-postmasters, the boffo potensh is limited
    It is more theatre than the ITV drama. Counsel for the inquiry and in particular Jason Beer is giving an object lesson in domain (law, plus subject of the enquiry, technique) expertise. It is thrilling to watch someone as much a master of their craft in action.

    Similar to, say, a travel writer describing his breakfast of scrambled eggs on toast in Puglia.
    lol ok. Maybe I’m just a bit grouchy, back in rainy London after the endless glories of weirdly compelling Puglia. Also: knackered. That was an intense trip
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    She's at the point of arguing about "known unknowns".

    Not going well at all.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it say only 125 people watching the live stream?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljlKH7qLiyM


    Coz it’s fucking boring?
    It's live on BBC too, so I guess that's where most people are watching.
    That’s another 13 people then

    Don’t get me wrong. I watched the ITV drama. It’s outrageous. I hope these mediocre fuckwits get keel-hauled etc etc

    But in the end it is still the post office and it’s still about sub-postmasters, the boffo potensh is limited
    It is more theatre than the ITV drama. Counsel for the inquiry and in particular Jason Beer is giving an object lesson in domain (law, plus subject of the enquiry, technique) expertise. It is thrilling to watch someone as much a master of their craft in action.

    Similar to, say, a travel writer describing his breakfast of scrambled eggs on toast in Puglia.
    I am waiting for my trial to start this morning but Beer is certainly worth watching. A master of his craft.
    The interesting thing is that people are using terms from the Inquiry, and the scandal now, in general conversation with their business. It is changing the paradigm of people's views of their own business dealings and activities.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it say only 125 people watching the live stream?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljlKH7qLiyM


    Coz it’s fucking boring?
    It's live on BBC too, so I guess that's where most people are watching.
    That’s another 13 people then

    Don’t get me wrong. I watched the ITV drama. It’s outrageous. I hope these mediocre fuckwits get keel-hauled etc etc

    But in the end it is still the post office and it’s still about sub-postmasters, the boffo potensh is limited
    It is more theatre than the ITV drama. Counsel for the inquiry and in particular Jason Beer is giving an object lesson in domain (law, plus subject of the enquiry, technique) expertise. It is thrilling to watch someone as much a master of their craft in action.

    Similar to, say, a travel writer describing his breakfast of scrambled eggs on toast in Puglia.
    lol ok. Maybe I’m just a bit grouchy, back in rainy London after the endless glories of weirdly compelling Puglia. Also: knackered. That was an intense trip
    It sounds it and what a shocking day to come back to London.

    Then again, there is plenty to do once here. Plenty of good theatre on atm well worth seeing and uniquely London-ish.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    OK I'll summarise La Vennells' responses so a tl;dr for the three days:

    I have no idea what went on at the organisation I was in charge of and I only wish that someone had told me what was happening while I was CEO.
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    FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,229

    She's at the point of arguing about "known unknowns".

    Not going well at all.

    She seems very hesitant and nervous. Good.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326

    Former Sky News Political Editor Tweets in response to Ireland recognising Palestine

    "Terrorism works"

    https://x.com/adamboultonTABB/status/1793183009820033376#m

    For context: As of May 2024, the State of Palestine is recognized as a sovereign state by 146 of the 193 member states of the United Nations. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine

    As I think I have said before, the British political commentariat aren't as knowledgeable about international politics as one would like.

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423
    Foxy said:

    Former Sky News Political Editor Tweets in response to Ireland recognising Palestine

    "Terrorism works"



    Was that in reference to the foundation of the state of Ireland, State of Israel or of Palestine?

    Yes
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    "my memory was not very good at the start of all this"...

    Bloody hell.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    A reminder that Paula Vennells is an ordained Church of England priest.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    viewcode said:

    Former Sky News Political Editor Tweets in response to Ireland recognising Palestine

    "Terrorism works"

    https://x.com/adamboultonTABB/status/1793183009820033376#m

    For context: As of May 2024, the State of Palestine is recognized as a sovereign state by 146 of the 193 member states of the United Nations. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine

    As I think I have said before, the British political commentariat aren't as knowledgeable about international politics as one would like.

    Sweden and most of Eastern Europe (Poland, Czechia, etc) already recognise Palestine, as do most countries in South America, Africa and Asia. For all the difference it makes.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122

    A reminder that Paula Vennells is an ordained Church of England priest.

    I suggest she concentrates on that rather than trying to run complex businesses.
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567

    Nigelb said:

    Another really poor interview by Emma Barnett on Today this morning, this time with the Chancellor. She really does like her own voice far too much.

    I'm definitely not a fan of the "Macro policies are all very well but Mrs Trellis from North Wales has emailed to say' thing. How do we know that Mrs Trellis isn't just the shadow Chancellor making things up? Or the producer?

    Keep that nonsense on Radio 5 please.

    She was using a particular example to make a general point which the Chancellor didn't really answer.

    You might not like the way she framed the question, but the twin issues of housing costs, and actual changes in standard of living for large sectors of the workforce are perfectly valid ones to raise.

    I note you ignored the point about rental costs rising 9% in the last year. Which is somewhat at odds with 2.3% inflation.

    That's why individuals' experiences matter.
    I didn't ignore anything, I just thought it was a poor interview. Do you think the question was from an actual voter? How can anyone be sure?

    We all know Jeremy Hunt is a landlord and that some people may not be feeling rich at the moment but there's no need to spend more than half of the interview talking over him in order to tell us this. I honestly think she'd have preferred to just talk at the Chancellor for 10 minutes and had him just sit there.

    If she wanted to go down the personal route she could have asked a question about why investment in rental properties is apparently so lucrative compared to other forms of investment that might be more productive for the economy, and as a side comment asked the Chancellor why he himself chose to invest that way.

    I fear 'feels' as Boulay put it has replaced actual facts.
    I don't listen to it anymore so cannot really comment on this interview but it sounds like the sort of excercise in futility that stopped me listening in the first place.

    As for the question from the voter I share your cynicism. Either made up or from an opposition party activist. Probably as authentic as an audience on Question Time.

    Often these interviews, I used to get the feeling, were more about the interviewer scoring points and getting a quote for the hourly news bulletin that informing the listeners and with some of the news it is more agenda driven reporting than objective reporting.
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    SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 647
    My summary:

    Vennells. It's not my fault. It's all to do with the way the company was run

    Beer. Who was running it? It was you.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    TOPPING said:

    OK I'll summarise La Vennells' responses so a tl;dr for the three days:

    I have no idea what went on at the organisation I was in charge of and I only wish that someone had told me what was happening while I was CEO.

    Also not sure who was responsible for organizational structure and reporting lines.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    "That there is an issue of unknown unknowns. If you don’t know something exists, it’s difficult to ask questions about it."

    I am starting to get seriously :angry: now
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Why does it say only 125 people watching the live stream?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljlKH7qLiyM


    Coz it’s fucking boring?
    It's live on BBC too, so I guess that's where most people are watching.
    That’s another 13 people then

    Don’t get me wrong. I watched the ITV drama. It’s outrageous. I hope these mediocre fuckwits get keel-hauled etc etc

    But in the end it is still the post office and it’s still about sub-postmasters, the boffo potensh is limited
    I wonder if they are going to have to tiptoe around some aspects. Ms Vennels should not be giving evidence, she should be facing charges. It would be uncharacteristic for someone in a public position to do so but we may well make an exception for her. In which event she has a right to not self incriminate.
    But why just her given how deep this runs. It is almost like she is the one to be thrown under the bus and yet many of the others will just have "amnesia" and blame her.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    Nigelb said:

    Another really poor interview by Emma Barnett on Today this morning, this time with the Chancellor. She really does like her own voice far too much.

    I'm definitely not a fan of the "Macro policies are all very well but Mrs Trellis from North Wales has emailed to say' thing. How do we know that Mrs Trellis isn't just the shadow Chancellor making things up? Or the producer?

    Keep that nonsense on Radio 5 please.

    She was using a particular example to make a general point which the Chancellor didn't really answer.

    You might not like the way she framed the question, but the twin issues of housing costs, and actual changes in standard of living for large sectors of the workforce are perfectly valid ones to raise.

    I note you ignored the point about rental costs rising 9% in the last year. Which is somewhat at odds with 2.3% inflation.

    That's why individuals' experiences matter.
    Different individuals and different groups have different experiences.

    This has always been the case and always will be.

    But why do we seem to have an insistence that because one group is losing out that everyone else must be losing out as well ?

    Or the whiny demands that 'help' must be given to any group which is loud enough in its claims that it is losing out.

    A process which leads to endless contradictory subsidies and handouts given to almost everyone.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    edited May 22
    The answer to "Who shall win the first debate?" is Jason Beer, obviously.

    A reminder that Paula Vennells is an ordained Church of England priest.

    I suggest she concentrates on that rather than trying to run complex businesses.
    Ironically the smarter voices in the CofE have observed that a lot of that organisation's current troubles are from people (e.g. Justin Welby) trying to run it like a complex business.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,326

    viewcode said:

    Former Sky News Political Editor Tweets in response to Ireland recognising Palestine

    "Terrorism works"

    https://x.com/adamboultonTABB/status/1793183009820033376#m

    For context: As of May 2024, the State of Palestine is recognized as a sovereign state by 146 of the 193 member states of the United Nations. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine

    As I think I have said before, the British political commentariat aren't as knowledgeable about international politics as one would like.

    Sweden and most of Eastern Europe (Poland, Czechia, etc) already recognise Palestine, as do most countries in South America, Africa and Asia. For all the difference it makes.
    Well, given that in ten years' time Poland will be the military superpower in the Intermarium, the difference will only increase in time.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    What a brilliant point (again) by Beer - Vennells in her statement still in denial blaming "the Horizon system". Not the Post Office. He picks her up on this.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    SandraMc said:

    My summary:

    Vennells. It's not my fault. It's all to do with the way the company was run

    Beer. Who was running it? It was you.

    Yep.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483

    HYUFD said:

    If Trump is convicted and sentenced to house arrest will there either be a debate at all or could it take place with Biden and Trump in separate locations?

    Trump is certain to appeal any conviction, delaying any possible sentence.
    It's NY state, not Federal, law. So I'm not sure how long it takes.

    Nor am I sure if he is released pending Appeal if imprisoned.

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085
    edited May 22
    TOPPING said:

    What a brilliant point (again) by Beer - Vennells in her statement still in denial blaming "the Horizon system". Not the Post Office. He picks her up on this.

    With that one point, her 775-page witness statement is turned to ash.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    TOPPING said:

    What a brilliant point (again) by Beer - Vennells in her statement still in denial blaming "the Horizon system". Not the Post Office. He picks her up on this.

    I know it is an epic tautology, but lawyers are awesome, Jason Beer KC is primus inter pares.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,423

    "That there is an issue of unknown unknowns. If you don’t know something exists, it’s difficult to ask questions about it."

    I am starting to get seriously :angry: now

    Rumsfeld was actually articulating the point that you need to go out and look for trouble in your organisation. Because trouble is there, and it will find you.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    "As a reminder, last week, Beer was frustrated that Vennells had supplied a tranche of a further 50 documents to the inquiry. Late disclosure of documents has been a persistent theme of the inquiry."

    Guardian live blog
This discussion has been closed.